<< <i> By the time I got the gist of it stating that the USDollar is heading into the peak of a minor C leg that will take it to 105 within a year or two sort of caught my attention. >>
These kinds of overly grand analyses, with sweeping summaries of world history tied into a rigid framework, are usually a poor way to make investment decisions.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
A once-marginal proposal — from Representative Ron Paul, the Texas Republican — that would give Congress the power to review interest rate decisions recently passed the House and will soon be considered by the Senate.
Economists are generally horrified by this idea. If Congress could force Fed officials to answer questions about every interest rate move, the process could easily become politicized. A politicized central bank is a first step toward runaway inflation.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
I usually have CNBC on in the background and I listen in sometimes. The day before yesterday, they plopped a comparison chart between stocks (down 23%) and gold (up 230%) for the past 10 years.
Then, they all proceeded to talk about how the stock market was a better investment. Say what? I'd think that is somewhat irresponsible, and just plain dumb.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Based on gold outperforming stocks by a huge margin over the past decade a pure contrarian looking at nothing else other than this single stat would then assume stocks are a better buy. But using that same logic, that same contrarian would have come to the conclusion in 1992-1994 that gold was now a better buy than stocks. And that same contrarian would have continued to recommend gold over stocks every additional year until 1999-2000.
Tomorrow will be the only decent opportunity for a good jobs report for a couple of months. Employment figures tomorrow to be skewed higher than should be by seasonal factors" –www.ShadowStats.com . Since next week is a 3/10/30 yr TBond auction week....some operating room preps may need to be done on the Stock and commodity markets to ensure smoother sailing.
<< <i>I usually have CNBC on in the background and I listen in sometimes. The day before yesterday, they plopped a comparison chart between stocks (down 23%) and gold (up 230%) for the past 10 years.
Then, they all proceeded to talk about how the stock market was a better investment. Say what? I'd think that is somewhat irresponsible, and just plain dumb. >>
They can't make money recommending Gold so they have to keep pimping equities. historically they are correct about stocks being a much better innvestment than gold but there are prolonged periods like the past 10 years where Gold beats equities by a huge margin and Silver has done even better.
In Money Magazine's defense, there is an article later in the magazine that talks about how to invest in gold. They are somewhat bearish on gold, but not as much as this article dictates.
For over a year know I've been reading some of the articles by goldbug Bix Weir. And until today I never really understood his "Road to Roota" reference. The Boston FED put out a children's comic called "Wishes & Rainbows" back in 1981 at the same time dscussions/panels about returning to the gold standard where running hot and heavy. The associated Teacher's guide for the comic is called Road to Roota. Roota is the heroine of the 10 minute comic book that has tiny pebble people living underground in a colorless (grey backed) world. Colorland is inhabited by big people where golden light shines on a colorful world. Shades of Wizard of Oz! Bix has many conspiracy links that will no doubt turn off the fiat bugs...don't read them. But I found this comic via Bix's link interesting and informative. Just another notch in the our continuing gold studies. Bix contends that it has been the govt's intention all along to return to a gold backed currency of some sort, the only issue has been on the timing as well as how far to bleed down the nation's wealth before making the transfer. Note that in 2007 the FED updated this comic, the only time they have ever re-issued/revised something like this.
So just why is this comic book complete with a teacher's edition part of the FED's library? For those that occasionally read some of the lastest gold/dollar conspiracy theories, the author has numerous links.
interesting "find" RR and thanks for the link and explanation.
the unemployment rate is 5-8 points higher than what was reported today, the numbers are fudged and it is not just those who fell off the books after they stopped looking for work.
of interesting note is rental rates have climbed in the DC/metro area due to all the housing demand by the jobs "created" there.
They can't make money recommending Gold so they have to keep pimping equities. historically they are correct about stocks being a much better innvestment than gold but there are prolonged periods like the past 10 years where Gold beats equities by a huge margin and Silver has done even better.
The reason that I point out how utterly irresponsible this type of misinformation really is - is because the baby boomer generation needed reasonable earnings this past decade in order to be able to retire. Simply to retire - not to retire luxuriously or comfortably - simply to retire. A lost decade, while the bankers continue to get free $billions in bonuses.
A very good decade to have been able to THINK independently. Then again, it's always a good thing to be able to think for one's self, as opposed to sopping up any claptrap and drivel that is spewed from the mass media 24/7.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>They can't make money recommending Gold so they have to keep pimping equities. historically they are correct about stocks being a much better innvestment than gold but there are prolonged periods like the past 10 years where Gold beats equities by a huge margin and Silver has done even better. >>
That's it right there. They pimp what they make money on - and that's pushing paper. The financial channels have to cater to their advertisers, who are paper pushers.
I'm down in Argentina lately and have asked about their version of this. They are not happy to say the least. I remember flying down there in 2002 right after the meltdown. The citizens were stunned then and still are now. On my recent trip, over the holidays, I noticed police and "paddy wagons" and armored personnel vehicles everywhere. The locals say that murders are rampant. The most evidence of security is near the cruise ships and three train stations downtown. The tourists are clueless but if you look closely or one street over it's another story.
Regarding their 3% annuity...they never got it. This is according to one "ramper." I haven't followed up on it, but the "ramper" spoke english well and seemed to know what I already have researched and much more. He says Argentines are their worst enemy because they keep electing the same crooks over and over. Sounds familiar.
Yes, we discussed this early last year here. It just makes sense for the gov to go after that stash of cash because it's the last stash of cash that they can get to and they know about...you can only tax people so much and why just tax 'em when you can tax 'em and take their cash too...it's ALL good and hey, come on, we all gotta pitch in here. The discussion on this thread was about retirement vouchers in lieu of your 401 but what the heck, why not give them some US treasuries for their cash in their 401/ira, not actually a voucher but it'll do for one since there's not really any cash there anyway. Imagine the doo dah you are going to have to submit to when you want your cash for your US treasury for retirement buks, and you thought getting the cash from your retirement account now was hard. Harrrrrrrrr...
I think what's driving this is that the boomers are going to start reaching for that 401/ira cash in the next few years, if they haven't already, and that would devastate the equities funds and then the great game would finally be over. There are some very powerful forces that do not want the game to be over in the midst of some of the games in play at the moment. I mean, how can you have a rising stock market when everyone is taking their cash out of it...not gonna work. I grabbed a small retirement account I had and converted it to cash in my pocket last year. If I had another one, I'd cash it in a heartbeat. Hopefully the gov will stop at gnabbing 401's and the like and not go after annuities or I'll grab the cash out of that too. And do what with it...hummmm semi-rural real estate methinks in a nice spot, kind of a farmville for real.
Are you telling me that Santelli's comments can't be found?
It was either him or Sinclair, but someone was saying yesterday that the only way people will start buying long bonds is if the long yields start rising and stock market starts dropping.
Everybody is watching the steep yield curve. It makes sense to watch it, as far as I can tell. Since gold and silver are just financial backwaters, the first blood will show up in bonds and the dollar.
Like roadrunner says - rinse, lather, repeat. Or is it lather, rinse, repeat?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
ProofCollection, glad to see that link. I was about to paste in the entire article. edit - what the heck, I'll try it anyway...
I mentioned something in another thread about the "finiteness" of the situation, that is, if business continues as usual.
hip boots ain't gonna do it boys, break out the chest waders. ____________________
Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China by David Barboza Friday, January 8, 2010 provided by
James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true. Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc. As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point. As America's pre-eminent short-seller -- he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail -- Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers. Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore. Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal. For all his record of prescience -- in addition to predicting Enron's demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world's biggest banks -- his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored. "I find it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China," said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. "China is not in a bubble." Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China's economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion. But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China's stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans. "In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he's been tilting against all these decades," said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. "He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That's been his stock and trade." Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much. "The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell." In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse. In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China. The nation's huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth. But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of "speculative capital," has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets. A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 -- one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone. "It's going to be a bust," said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, "The Coming Collapse of China" (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash. Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd -- even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world. A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm's offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information. "His record is impressive," said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. "He's no fly-by-night charlatan. And I'm bullish on China." Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate. His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called "The Contrarian Investor," according to an account of his life in "The Smartest Guys in the Room," a book that chronicled Enron's rise and downfall. After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks. At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in "outright fraud." That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him. Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice. Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other "financial disasters" over the years. "They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys," he has said.
Come on guys, dont beat up on China now, that my gig.
But, as I've stated many times, Europe is in much worse shape than the US and since the Euro is the largest component of the dollar basket, do not underestimate the recent rally of the dollar.
But, as I've stated many times, Europe is in much worse shape than the US and since the Euro is the largest component of the dollar basket, do not underestimate the recent rally of the dollar. >>
I agree with you that Europe is in very bad shape and the Euro is in big trouble. But sadly, does it make a difference in the mid and long term which is worse off - the Dollar or the Euro? Both are dying and would be dead if there was an alternative.
Both need to die and a sustainable currency be created. Any quick fix to either the Dollar or the Euro will only put off the massive pain people will feel all over the world when both currencies come tumbling down. Should the worse happen, leaders should then build a new foundation based upon staying within their means.
In the short term, use your skill to play the Dollar versus the Euro when it comes to stocks, commodities, and currency. Just be in the right things when the music stops and there are only one or two chairs to sit.
American Numismatic Association Governor 2023 to 2025 - My posts reflect my own thoughts and are not those of the ANA.My Numismatics with Kenny Twitter Page
But, as I've stated many times, Europe is in much worse shape than the US and since the Euro is the largest component of the dollar basket, do not underestimate the recent rally of the dollar. >>
I agree with you that Europe is in very bad shape and the Euro is in big trouble. But sadly, does it make a difference in the mid and long term which is worse off - the Dollar or the Euro? Both are dying and would be dead if there was an alternative.
Both need to die and a sustainable currency be created. Any quick fix to either the Dollar or the Euro will only put off the massive pain people will feel all over the world when both currencies come tumbling down. Should the worse happen, leaders should then build a new foundation based upon staying within their means.
In the short term, use your skill to play the Dollar versus the Euro when it comes to stocks, commodities, and currency. Just be in the right things when the music stops and there are only one or two chairs to sit. >>
As Jim Rogers put it, Chanos didn't know how to spell China until recently. Now he's an expert?
They say China lies about their economic data and they overstate it. Probably true. However, where do you think they learned that from? We are good teachers and they are quick learners. I can tell you with my own eyes that China's growth is real. Sustainable for forever, no way. China's banks used to be the most corrupt in the world. Perhaps they are still corrupt actually I know they are. However, do you think that it could possibly be more corrupt then that of ours? Not possible. No way.
The United States better pray eight days a week that China's bubble does not burst anytime soon. If it does, game over and pull our plug.
Sorry Dave, but as bad as shape that the Euro Zone is in the US and the dollar are still worse off. However, it's like choosing beween two unattractive girls and the end of the bar, I'll grant you that.
I've lived in China, Europe ( UK, Spain and Sweden), Japan, Brazil and the US about the same amount of days over the past five years. I've lived on the Canadian border half of my life and grew up there.
I can tell you first hand that the infrastructure of China and Brazil will put the US and Old Europe to shame within the next ten years. Maybe sooner in China's case. The US and Europe are crumbling at the seams. China's bailout/injection went 100% into infrastructure, the U.S's bailout went to Wall St. China just completed the Super Train (250 mph) near me and finished two bridges in my province since my last go here in November. How are the roads, bridges, rails, electrical grid in the US holding up? I guess we do have Amtrack. Our trains barely stay on the tracks and China's goes 250 mph and at 10,000 ft. Japan, maybe in a deflationary cycle (forever maybe) but have you been there lately? What do you see? I see the most advanced country in the world so I see hope. How about Germany? I was there in the fall for an extended period and things there are robust in comparison to the US. Same in Sweden. England, Italy, Spain and France are a different story. They have major problems including a declining birthrate issue and a Muslim population explosion that will test their culture during the next decade. I can easily see Germany breaking way from the EU in the future. I don't advocate buying Euros. By the way I'll take the UK and their problems and I'll give you California and theirs anyday of the week. I have an office in LA...........impending diaster. By the way on one of my extended stays in China in 2009 there was a delegation from Los Angeles visiting including the mayor. They came to China to study it's school system to see why it's so effective and why LA's is failing. They came to study China's effective school system! Countries like China and India are beating us to death with their books not with their military.
I've made it a personal mission to visit at length and live and study in each of these countries since post 9/11 whether it was work related or not. I quit my "day" job for two years to gain a working knowledge. I wanted to see first hand instead of reading about it in the publications that are often quoted here or linked. I wanted to see with my own eyes and I have. We have so many experts in the US that pontificate about global economics and make predictions that have never even had their passports stamped in the countries they lay diatribe on.
Dave, basically you like the dollar as the worlds "default" currency and because we have a mighty military? Not a good enough reason for me. Especially since the latter could be jeopardized if our debt does not get bought up. Come to think of it, aren't we buying our own debt these days? Sort of like taking a Payday Loan and repaying it with a credit card.
I would exit the dollar at every opportunity. Personally, I'm almost there. Gold, Swiss Francs, Aussie, RMB and Canadian Dollars are where I want my friends and family to be. I aslo hold the yen as my default currency.
You are correct that the dollar is not going to zero. But, it is on a bobsled ride to he77 and he77 is a lot lower then it is now......JMHO for what it's worth.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
But, as I've stated many times, Europe is in much worse shape than the US and since the Euro is the largest component of the dollar basket, do not underestimate the recent rally of the dollar. >>
I agree with you that Europe is in very bad shape and the Euro is in big trouble. But sadly, does it make a difference in the mid and long term which is worse off - the Dollar or the Euro? Both are dying and would be dead if there was an alternative.
Both need to die and a sustainable currency be created. Any quick fix to either the Dollar or the Euro will only put off the massive pain people will feel all over the world when both currencies come tumbling down. Should the worse happen, leaders should then build a new foundation based upon staying within their means.
In the short term, use your skill to play the Dollar versus the Euro when it comes to stocks, commodities, and currency. Just be in the right things when the music stops and there are only one or two chairs to sit. >>
What are those two chairs? >>
I was writing metaphorically. There will be a number of ways to take advantage of an economic collapse. Most of these investments will not be the ordinary ways most people and many investors normally invest.
Gold will be one of those ways and it is wise for everyone to at least take a position in the PMs. How large a position depends on if you believe a total breakdown will take place and governments will be forced to add gold as a big piece of the new gold/currency basket or if you are optimistic and we only suffer a few years of financial uncertainty then a smaller position for insurance.
The other "chairs" will have to be determined in time. If the Euro falls before the US, playing the Dollar could make you wealthy. But then what? The US will still be straddled with trillions in debt, poor economic performance, a world in financial collapse, and holding on to a heavy anchor which will eventually expose the Dollar for what it really is - a paper tiger.
Both the Euro and the Dollar will either cease to exist or radical steps will be taken by the US and other nations to end the current madness of creating more debt to pay off existing debt. If it is the latter, we will all still feel a lot of financial pain because the cure will hurt a lot too.
Stay turned. If it was not so tragic with so many people getting hurt, it would be fun to sit back and watch how things unfold (from an academic standpoint).
American Numismatic Association Governor 2023 to 2025 - My posts reflect my own thoughts and are not those of the ANA.My Numismatics with Kenny Twitter Page
I would exit the dollar at every opportunity. Personally, I'm almost there. Gold, Swiss Francs, Aussie, RMB and Canadian Dollars are where I want my friends and family to be. I aslo hold the yen as my default currency.
A very informative and educational post, MJ. Where would you live if you were retiring?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I would exit the dollar at every opportunity. Personally, I'm almost there. Gold, Swiss Francs, Aussie, RMB and Canadian Dollars are where I want my friends and family to be. I aslo hold the yen as my default currency.
A very informative and educational post, MJ. Where would you live if you were retiring? >>
My family is in the US so I'd stay home. I love my country but I feel like that Indian in the Don't Litter commerial in the 6o's and 70's with a tear rolling down my cheek. If I didn't have family in the US I would choose Singapore or Helsingborg Sweden . MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Justacommenman, WOW (last 2 posts), I share your insights and observations wholeheartedly. I have lived in Japan, was in Germany this past fall, have decade of perspective with Brazil, Argentina, and Chile and Venezuela. Stockholm, Copenhagen, Kenya and Ethiopia too. I haven't been to China. Interestingly, I am reading a 700-page book titled "Mao." Your observations are right on. My observations are more on the surface though. I don't have personal businesses in these countries but I see what my company, "Purple and Orange" see. It's also baffling to me how Japan continues to modernize. Berlin was an utter shock to my system. One thing they all have in common (except for China) is that they don't have to spend to be the world's police. Imagine that money going to U.S. infrastructure, education etc. But it is what it is.
When ever I go to Brazil I get a "few" extra Reais. I don't know when the SHTF if one can really protect themselves. I think all one can do is manage the KAOS. Being aware is half the battle. If gold does go to $8,000 per oz, does it really matter? What kind of world is that?
The two countries I would consider to live in is Chile and Brazil. But when it comes to family, I will stay in the U.S. (and fight.) I was in Southern California over Christmas and I could not see the "meltdown." I know it's there (I have lived there since 1965 until recently.) A year ago I saw "for sale" signs everywhere. Not so much now. The malls, and restaurants were full. But that was coastal California. I realize that there are many California's.
Looking at the bright side of our economic and political clime, it has waken up many that have lived their lives on the coat tails of the victories of the greatest generation. I have never seem so many on the path of self-education as now. I have never seen so many first time activists. Knowing our founding documents has become "cool" to more and more.
How low will the dollar go? Is there a chartist that can extrapolate where the dollar would be if gold doubled from here? I know these things are linear. I wish they were.
I too have traveled and spent considerable time in Europe. I have many friends on both sides of the "iron curtain". I am not saying there is not considerable potential in China or Brazil. But I do belive there is considerable potential in the USA. You talk of infrastructure growth overseas, yet in this country we havent had a major project since the interstate highway system in the 50's. Every city on the East Coast needs to badly upgrade water, sewer, and electrical systems. What if we decide to build 250mph trains or upgrade our infrastructure? Wont we look like China does today? I see so much potential. We have an unbelievable amount of idled manufacturing capacity. We could probably produce more of anything than China--if it was cost effective. Buy why should we? For all intents purpose, and as bad as it sounds, the unfortunate, repressed citizens of China are our (and Europe's) slaves.
The USA is not going to suffer the demographic problems that Europe, Japan, and China will soon be facing. And once we get the baby boomers mostly out of the system, this country will rock. America has the smartest, most ambitious and most talented people on the planet. I am not willing to bet against them. The potential of America is tremendous. America is a young adult on the world stage. Europe, Japan, and China have roots that predate America by millennia and could be called "mature". And as most young adults, this country is full of bravado. We experiment, we take (undue) risks. A very small percentage of us dont fair well during this time, but the vast, vast majority do, and many very, very well. The odds are in America's favor that over the next 2-3 generations, America will flourish.
Yes, we have problems (some unique) in this country. But they are not insurmountable. It is easy to look around you and see the present, but that is mostly a reflection of history's ideas. I look for tomorrow's ideas, and I like what I see.
The USA's military will not be constrained by the ability or willingness of the world to buy our debt. If we want to build more airplanes or tanks, we WILL build them, no "money" need trade hands. At my local airport, soldiers report to duty in a computer room and fly remote controlled airplanes 5000 miles away to blow up people who have no regard for individual rights. How amazing is that!!??
I have not been to Japan and agree that they are "advanced" in some respects. But they will soon have excess. There will no longer be a need for more hospitals, more highways, more automobiles. I was also in Germany this past August and have several friends there. They complain to me of excessive taxes and high costs of goods. While the highways were exceptional, try finding conviences such as a hotel or restaurant that do not require you to drive 3 miles off the highway. No "easy on, easy off" exits. I also lived in England for a time--about 20 years ago--and will gladly take Cali over the UK. Much better looking women.
If people are going to China to study the school system, then they will again fail at providing education. The problem is the system, but the students lives while they are not in school. You think making kids wear uniforms and expand the school year to 250 days will make better students? Not if you dont get PARENTS to view the importance of education, to become involved in their kids lives and schooling. Parents need to stop viewing schools as baby sitters.
Why do you consider the YEN to be your default currency? What do you see in Europe that gives them an advantage over the USA?
Socialism is truly the root of all evil when it comes to the destruction of a society.
One hundred and fifty years ago Great Britain had the smartest, bravest, most creative people on the planet, and now? Socialism is what happened to Great Britain and all the European powers. Socialism and its brother communism is what has happened to Russia, Cuba, etc.
Those countries that are changing more to freedom and capitalism will succeed.
Over one half of the citizens in the United States get some form of money from the government, and I would venture to say that is more per capita than in Communist China.
Yes we could fix our country and perhaps a will to due that is being developed, but that will is not there yet.
In order for the United States to turn the corner and go the other direction, we must give up these socialist ideas, reverse the problems caused by Nafta, our borrowing habits, our belief we can be a “service economy”, etc.
Will we go down the tubes in the next few months? Very unlikely. First when the foreigners stop loaning us money the government can tap our retirement accounts, then it can just print the money. There is a process to every ponzi scheme and they have not used all the tools yet.
I can think of no country that ever reversed the course of socialism once more than half of their population were on the dole without first experiencing a major collapse. Therefore will we have a collapse, yes we will. When will things get really ugly? It could be any time in the next 5 years, but it is on the way.
Countries, like people, have destinies, our destiny is changing for the worse and we will all just have to go through it. Don’t be fooled by HOPE. There is no hope this will be reversed, so be prepared.
I am for isolationism and screw the rest of the world.Let them fend for themselves. This would probably cause World War III. So either way we are doomed. We have to look inward not outward to the world to solve our problems. Borrowing money from foreigners soon will be be our demise.
For quit some time some of my left-leaning friends say that America needs to be more like the rest of the world. America is too religious, they say. They cling to silly fundamentals, a throwback of a by gone era, and not progressive enough. I tell them that the rest of the world needs to be more like America. Look how much the "individual" who isn't hampered by an overbearing government can achieve. We are not from here. We all came from the other places to do things we couldn't do over "there." It's still like that regardless of our current clime. But we have to keep that spirit of individualism alive. I see too many embracing collectivism without even know it.
<<justacom - could you please give your opinion of top 3 countries to live in, and why? Also, why do you choose that city in Sweden? Thanks!>>
If you Goggle the best or nicest places to live in the world Denmark, Norway and Sweden always seem to make the list. However, I can tell you first hand that the cosmopolitan areas there are brutally expensive. Helsingborg, Sweden offers the following- it's a ferry ride across from Copenhagen so it offers cosmopoltian lifestyle within reach but at half the cost. It's on the water. The people are scary friendly and everyone smiles. They tend to be beautiful inside and out. The city looks like Verona Italy believe it or not. I like winter and summer sports. I'm a huge Detroit Red Wings fan. Half of Detroit's team is Swedes so they follow them religously. That's just a bonus.
Top three- 1) Sweden as mentioned above 2) Singapore- the best of Asia and relatively cheap. 3) Canada- safe, best banks in the world, low unemployement , sparsely populated and close to home : ) . All the these countries had some downside as well, but as a whole body of work these would be my picks.
<<The two countries I would consider to live in is Chile and Brazil. But when it comes to family, I will stay in the U.S. (and fight.) I was in Southern California over Christmas and I could not see the "meltdown." I know it's there (I have lived there since 1965 until recently.) A year ago I saw "for sale" signs everywhere. Not so much now. The malls, and restaurants were full. But that was coastal California. I realize that there are many California's.>.
I love Chile ( I used to play volleyball there). I've worked out of there as well as Brazil. Chile is like California. Mountains to the east and the Pacific to the west. The people are wonderful and beautiful without pretences. renman- it was the drive down Cresent Heights from W Hollywood to my office in LA that tipped me off to the impending housing crisis. Over a one year peroid I notice that more and more houses were going up for sale every week one by one (2006). I only use that office one week a month on average so it became painfully obvious what was happening. Side bar- Renman- I enjoy your posts.
Dave- I think you're awesome, extremely bright and ALWAYS read your posts. I just tend to disagree on a lot of stuff when it comes to your Pro-US stance. I think you are a homer
1) I do not think we have the brightest people but I guess that's a matter of definition. I do however, think we can adapt better then most and can re-invent ourselves so there is considerable hope. I do think we have the edge on bright and beautiful minds where as the China's and India's tend to produce brilliant students and technicians with great linear thinking.
2) the UK does produce some pretty hot women but I will concede California to you on that point. California's women definitely have better teeth.
3)<Why do you consider the YEN to be your default currency?> Both the yen and the dollar are defacto carry trade currencies. However, the yen trumps the dollar in that category. The trend is the yen. I also like that Japan is a huge TWO way trading partner with China. Actually the trilogy of trading between China, Japan and Australia is mind numbing. I think it would shock most people to study these numbers. Each of them can be the TOP two way trading partners in the world at any given moment. So the yen is an Asian Pacific play.
4) <What do you see in Europe that gives them an advantage over the USA? > I don't as a whole. Europe is not the EU. Give me Germany, Norway, Sweden and Denmark and you can have the rest of Europe. The balance of EU and UK is as bad off as the US or worse depending on country. All with unique problems. I love the currencies and countries of Sweden, Norway and Denmark and I hold a basket of them as a play against the Euro.
<<No time to say all I want. I am in the US Military and will take the US' problems over anyone elses' any day.China is going to have big problems within about five years.Anyone wanna bet?>>
I'll take that bet. I've been hearing the same thing for the best ten years. What do you base that staement on? And if you are correct then the US will have it twice as bad. I think you should hope you are wrong. We need China to succeed, the entire world does. They are the next world's economic superpower. Great Britian in the 19th century, the US in the 20th century and China in the 21st. During each of the times of the superpowers no one could ever see their reign coming to an end. It would be scoffed at. By the way, it would be cool to pass the baton so we could worry about our own problems instead of the worlds. I would think we should relish a new roll. The world no longer revolves around the US. Americans have been taught otherwise and have a hard time dealing with statements like that. Thank you for your service. Huge respect.
Gold Saint- well said, well said indeed.
1jester-<< reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution>>
The only way you get revolution in the US if if the goverment takes away the peoples cable. Then and only then we see protests in the streets.
JMHO, MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see. >>
I agree. When I visited China it was clear that the US was not much different. It is amazing how much we have in common - especially when you consider items like internal suspicionless immigration checkpoints (that aren't on or near the border), eminent domain, and now the mandate to purchase health insurance.
Perhaps I could be optimistic like Cohodk if I saw some kind of movement in a positive direction, but right now I don't see any positive or potentially positive developments. I agree that things can turn around, but things certainly don't look like they're going to.
The thing that all other countries don't have is the brilliant design created by our founding fathers. The design is imbued with checks & balances, and a historical perspective such that it is hard to railroad the whole system. Other countries haven't been afforded that advantage.
Everyone wants the system to work for them, whether it works for anyone else or not. That's socialism. That's Animal Farm. The true believers believe in perfect equality for all until it is achieved. Then it becomes a case of "some animals are more equal than others". That's what you get with 17 legislators taking 5 private jets to Copenhagen for the global warming party, while the rest of us pay for their junket.
There's all this talk of creating a crisis that will show that the constitutional form of government has failed. That's going to be hard to show if we haven't been following the constitutional form of government in the first place. There is some merit to the fear that the Constitution is being targeted for revocation, although not overtly because that would freak people out.
We have a supposed constitutional law professor in the White House. If he were such a great proponent of the Constitution, I would think that he would start bringing up Constitutional issues and demand that we start following the supreme law of the land. That sure hasn't happened.
Checks and Balances. I think that the whole structure is so brilliant that it will survive. I think that it's up to all true Americans to make sure that it does. jmho.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>The thing that all other countries don't have is the brilliant design created by our founding fathers. The design is imbued with checks & balances, and a historical perspective such that it is hard to railroad the whole system. Other countries haven't been afforded that advantage.
Everyone wants the system to work for them, whether it works for anyone else or not. That's socialism. That's Animal Farm. The true believers believe in perfect equality for all until it is achieved. Then it becomes a case of "some animals are more equal than others". That's what you get with 17 legislators taking 5 private jets to Copenhagen for the global warming party, while the rest of us pay for their junket.
There's all this talk of creating a crisis that will show that the constitutional form of government has failed. That's going to be hard to show if we haven't been following the constitutional form of government in the first place. There is some merit to the fear that the Constitution is being targeted for revocation, although not overtly because that would freak people out.
We have a supposed constitutional law professor in the White House. If he were such a great proponent of the Constitution, I would think that he would start bringing up Constitutional issues and demand that we start following the supreme law of the land. That sure hasn't happened.
Checks and Balances. I think that the whole structure is so brilliant that it will survive. I think that it's up to all true Americans to make sure that it does. jmho. >>
I'm as optimistic as the next guy but I know the Constitution can afford us no protection at all. Its ink wasn't even dry before the Articles of Confederation were improperly and illegally circumvented for its institutution. It was supposed to require the votes of nine states to superceed the older document but it was railroaded through with a simple majority. They could never have gotten the other two votes without an extensive rewrite to include more state's rights.
If you want protection then look to the Declaration of Independence.
Adam Brochert in his latest article echos what a few of us have been saying.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Yen to fall, dollar to rise, China sovereign fund official says - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. dollar has hit bottom while the yen will continue to decline, Peng Junming, an official at China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said. Both the United States and China would likely raise interest rates in the second half of the year, said Peng, who resides in the China Investment Corp's asset allocation department, in a speech. Peng added that China should have the right attitude about gold and not rush to buy it now because the price is too high.
Yen to fall, dollar to rise, China sovereign fund official says - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. dollar has hit bottom while the yen will continue to decline, Peng Junming, an official at China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said. Both the United States and China would likely raise interest rates in the second half of the year, said Peng, who resides in the China Investment Corp's asset allocation department, in a speech. Peng added that China should have the right attitude about gold and not rush to buy it now because the price is too high. >>
Interesting. The dollar is up against every currency except for one today. The yen. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'm as optimistic as the next guy but I know the Constitution can afford us no protection at all.
You misunderstand me, clad. I'm not entirely sure that the USA will survive what's going on, and all of the documents of Western Civilization are important, but the Constitution is the key.
What I mean is this. Even though the big special interests are manipulating as many things as possible, the people eventually catch on - even the people who comprise those special interests. For example, the Democrats will vie for control within their own party, as will the Republicans. The President will wrestle for authority with the Supreme Court, even if he appointed them. Congress will continue to run scared if they think that they might get voted out. Corporations will continue to buy votes while transferring jobs out of the country. The Senate Leader will continue to buy votes. Various governors will point out how their own state is being screwed. The media will continue to say whatever they think will keep them in favor.
The ones on the short end of the stick will always pick up the Constitution and shake it at the offenders, saying - "stop trampling on the Constitution!!!!"
Attitudes have to change, and we just might be seeing that right now.
It's messy, and ugly - we all see that. OTOH, I think that **just maybe** the system will work. I am really hoping for a swing in attitudes in the complete opposite direction of where we've been going lately. Too many feet are being stepped on when the unions are told that their cadillac plans will be taxed. More issues will follow. Even the welfare recipients won't get what they've been promised and I suspect that a fair number of them will begin to "think", eventually.
At some point, they might realize that it's not really "Obama's money" and at some point, even Obama might realize that working for a living is necessary in the real world.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk
I find this to be very humorous, as I consider myslef to be the LEAST US-centric of anyone on the boards. I am the only one who consistantly posts links to stories about economic conditions in the rest of the world. All I hear about is how bad it is in the USA.
Seriously, and I sincerely dont mean any disrespect, some of you need to stop reading all the gold bug newsletters---and their incessant bashing of the USA-- and start reading newspapers from other parts of the world. Or at least have Bloomberg.com as your home internet page. Click on REGIONS, and read what is going on in other parts of the globe. Stop watching Fox news and CNN and all other mainstream media outlets. Dont watch CurrentTV or listen to NPR or Rush, ect either.
Does anyone know that Dubai was the worse real estate market in the world last year with prices falling 50%. Or that real estate in New Zealand is back to 2007 levels and priced at about 10x the average Kiwi's income? Or did you know that the "reported" unemployment in Spain is 19%. Or that in Southern Italy--where unemployment is near 20%--migrant workers had to be evacuated?
One must learn the difference and the implications of the words relativity and absolute.
GS, I never once use the word "hope". And I never will as I do not believe it.
You have to ask yourself, "Do I think the USA wants to survive and flourish?" If your answer is no, then I can only wish you good luck. If your answer is yes, which I believe, then rest assured that we as a people will ensure a strong and viable future for our children.
Interesting. The dollar is up against every currency except for one today. The yen. MJ
The YEN lost nearly 8% of its value vs the dollar in the last 6 weeks and touched the 200dma last Thursday. A bounce, which started last Thursday, was/is highly predictable and expected.
<< <i>You have to ask yourself, "Do I think the USA wants to survive and flourish?" If your answer is no, then I can only wish you good luck. If your answer is yes, which I believe, then rest assured that we as a people will ensure a strong and viable future for our children. >>
The people do, but the politicians don't seem to. Most of them want to get rid of the pesky Constitution so they can grow their power.
Comments
Here's another good one: Global bear rally will deflate as Japan leads world in sovereign bond crisis with lots of predictions. One prediction is Japan going Weimar.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> By the time I got the gist of it stating that the USDollar is heading into the peak of a minor C leg that will take it to 105 within a year or two sort of caught my attention. >>
These kinds of overly grand analyses, with sweeping summaries of world history tied into a rigid framework, are usually a poor way to make investment decisions.
Still tryin' to talk you out of gold...
A once-marginal proposal — from Representative Ron Paul, the Texas Republican — that would give Congress the power to review interest rate decisions recently passed the House and will soon be considered by the Senate.
Economists are generally horrified by this idea. If Congress could force Fed officials to answer questions about every interest rate move, the process could easily become politicized. A politicized central bank is a first step toward runaway inflation.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
Then, they all proceeded to talk about how the stock market was a better investment. Say what? I'd think that is somewhat irresponsible, and just plain dumb.
I knew it would happen.
Tomorrow will be the only decent opportunity for a good jobs report for a couple of months. Employment figures tomorrow to be skewed higher than should be by seasonal factors"
–www.ShadowStats.com . Since next week is a 3/10/30 yr TBond auction week....some operating room preps may need to be done on the Stock and commodity markets to ensure smoother sailing.
roadrunner
<< <i>I usually have CNBC on in the background and I listen in sometimes. The day before yesterday, they plopped a comparison chart between stocks (down 23%) and gold (up 230%) for the past 10 years.
Then, they all proceeded to talk about how the stock market was a better investment. Say what? I'd think that is somewhat irresponsible, and just plain dumb. >>
They can't make money recommending Gold so they have to keep pimping equities. historically they are correct about stocks being a much better innvestment than gold but there are prolonged periods like the past 10 years where Gold beats equities by a huge margin and Silver has done even better.
<< <i>Can't believe that these people would waste electrons on this drivel.
Still tryin' to talk you out of gold... >>
In Money Magazine's defense, there is an article later in the magazine that talks about how to invest in gold. They are somewhat bearish on gold, but not as much as this article dictates.
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
Direct link to Boston Fed's - Rainbows and Wishes
So just why is this comic book complete with a teacher's edition part of the FED's library? For those that occasionally read some of the lastest gold/dollar conspiracy theories, the author has numerous links.
Bix Weir on Wishes & Rainbows / Road to Roota
roadrunner
the unemployment rate is 5-8 points higher than what was reported today, the numbers are fudged and it is not just those who fell off the books after they stopped looking for work.
of interesting note is rental rates have climbed in the DC/metro area due to all the housing demand by the jobs "created" there.
The reason that I point out how utterly irresponsible this type of misinformation really is - is because the baby boomer generation needed reasonable earnings this past decade in order to be able to retire. Simply to retire - not to retire luxuriously or comfortably - simply to retire. A lost decade, while the bankers continue to get free $billions in bonuses.
A very good decade to have been able to THINK independently. Then again, it's always a good thing to be able to think for one's self, as opposed to sopping up any claptrap and drivel that is spewed from the mass media 24/7.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>They can't make money recommending Gold so they have to keep pimping equities. historically they are correct about stocks being a much better innvestment than gold but there are prolonged periods like the past 10 years where Gold beats equities by a huge margin and Silver has done even better. >>
That's it right there. They pimp what they make money on - and that's pushing paper. The financial channels have to cater to their advertisers, who are paper pushers.
<< <i>401k/IRA Screw Job Coming? >>
I just saw this on Jesse's Cafe.
I'm down in Argentina lately and have asked about their version of this. They are not happy to say the least. I remember flying down there in 2002 right after the meltdown. The citizens were stunned then and still are now. On my recent trip, over the holidays, I noticed police and "paddy wagons" and armored personnel vehicles everywhere. The locals say that murders are rampant. The most evidence of security is near the cruise ships and three train stations downtown. The tourists are clueless but if you look closely or one street over it's another story.
Regarding their 3% annuity...they never got it. This is according to one "ramper." I haven't followed up on it, but the "ramper" spoke english well and seemed to know what I already have researched and much more. He says Argentines are their worst enemy because they keep electing the same crooks over and over. Sounds familiar.
Yes, we discussed this early last year here. It just makes sense for the gov to go after that stash of cash because it's the last stash of cash that they can get to and they know about...you can only tax people so much and why just tax 'em when you can tax 'em and take their cash too...it's ALL good and hey, come on, we all gotta pitch in here. The discussion on this thread was about retirement vouchers in lieu of your 401 but what the heck, why not give them some US treasuries for their cash in their 401/ira, not actually a voucher but it'll do for one since there's not really any cash there anyway. Imagine the doo dah you are going to have to submit to when you want your cash for your US treasury for retirement buks, and you thought getting the cash from your retirement account now was hard. Harrrrrrrrr...
I think what's driving this is that the boomers are going to start reaching for that 401/ira cash in the next few years, if they haven't already, and that would devastate the equities funds and then the great game would finally be over. There are some very powerful forces that do not want the game to be over in the midst of some of the games in play at the moment. I mean, how can you have a rising stock market when everyone is taking their cash out of it...not gonna work. I grabbed a small retirement account I had and converted it to cash in my pocket last year. If I had another one, I'd cash it in a heartbeat. Hopefully the gov will stop at gnabbing 401's and the like and not go after annuities or I'll grab the cash out of that too. And do what with it...hummmm semi-rural real estate methinks in a nice spot, kind of a farmville for real.
Got cash?
It was either him or Sinclair, but someone was saying yesterday that the only way people will start buying long bonds is if the long yields start rising and stock market starts dropping.
Everybody is watching the steep yield curve. It makes sense to watch it, as far as I can tell. Since gold and silver are just financial backwaters, the first blood will show up in bonds and the dollar.
Like roadrunner says - rinse, lather, repeat. Or is it lather, rinse, repeat?
I knew it would happen.
I mentioned something in another thread about the "finiteness" of the situation, that is, if business continues as usual.
hip boots ain't gonna do it boys, break out the chest waders.
____________________
Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China
by David Barboza
Friday, January 8, 2010
provided by
James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.
Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.
As America's pre-eminent short-seller -- he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail -- Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.
Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.
Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.
For all his record of prescience -- in addition to predicting Enron's demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world's biggest banks -- his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.
"I find it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China," said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. "China is not in a bubble."
Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China's economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.
But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China's stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.
"In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he's been tilting against all these decades," said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. "He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That's been his stock and trade."
Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.
"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."
In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.
In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.
The nation's huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth.
But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of "speculative capital," has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.
A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 -- one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.
"It's going to be a bust," said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, "The Coming Collapse of China" (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.
Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd -- even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.
A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm's offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.
"His record is impressive," said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. "He's no fly-by-night charlatan. And I'm bullish on China."
Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.
His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called "The Contrarian Investor," according to an account of his life in "The Smartest Guys in the Room," a book that chronicled Enron's rise and downfall.
After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.
At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in "outright fraud."
That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.
Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.
Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other "financial disasters" over the years.
"They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys," he has said.
But, as I've stated many times, Europe is in much worse shape than the US and since the Euro is the largest component of the dollar basket, do not underestimate the recent rally of the dollar.
U.S. economic growth leaves Europe behind
European banks on the hook
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
But, as I've stated many times, Europe is in much worse shape than the US and since the Euro is the largest component of the dollar basket, do not underestimate the recent rally of the dollar. >>
I agree with you that Europe is in very bad shape and the Euro is in big trouble. But sadly, does it make a difference in the mid and long term which is worse off - the Dollar or the Euro? Both are dying and would be dead if there was an alternative.
Both need to die and a sustainable currency be created. Any quick fix to either the Dollar or the Euro will only put off the massive pain people will feel all over the world when both currencies come tumbling down. Should the worse happen, leaders should then build a new foundation based upon staying within their means.
In the short term, use your skill to play the Dollar versus the Euro when it comes to stocks, commodities, and currency. Just be in the right things when the music stops and there are only one or two chairs to sit.
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But, as I've stated many times, Europe is in much worse shape than the US and since the Euro is the largest component of the dollar basket, do not underestimate the recent rally of the dollar. >>
I agree with you that Europe is in very bad shape and the Euro is in big trouble. But sadly, does it make a difference in the mid and long term which is worse off - the Dollar or the Euro? Both are dying and would be dead if there was an alternative.
Both need to die and a sustainable currency be created. Any quick fix to either the Dollar or the Euro will only put off the massive pain people will feel all over the world when both currencies come tumbling down. Should the worse happen, leaders should then build a new foundation based upon staying within their means.
In the short term, use your skill to play the Dollar versus the Euro when it comes to stocks, commodities, and currency. Just be in the right things when the music stops and there are only one or two chairs to sit. >>
What are those two chairs?
Another key member of the basket is rotten. the Bank of Japan may need to sell yen or buy long-term government bonds in “unlimited amounts” to combat deflation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
They say China lies about their economic data and they overstate it. Probably true. However, where do you think they learned that from? We are good teachers and they are quick learners. I can tell you with my own eyes that China's growth is real. Sustainable for forever, no way. China's banks used to be the most corrupt in the world. Perhaps they are still corrupt actually I know they are. However, do you think that it could possibly be more corrupt then that of ours? Not possible. No way.
The United States better pray eight days a week that China's bubble does not burst anytime soon. If it does, game over and pull our plug.
Sorry Dave, but as bad as shape that the Euro Zone is in the US and the dollar are still worse off. However, it's like choosing beween two unattractive girls and the end of the bar, I'll grant you that.
I've lived in China, Europe ( UK, Spain and Sweden), Japan, Brazil and the US about the same amount of days over the past five years. I've lived on the Canadian border half of my life and grew up there.
I can tell you first hand that the infrastructure of China and Brazil will put the US and Old Europe to shame within the next ten years. Maybe sooner in China's case. The US and Europe are crumbling at the seams. China's bailout/injection went 100% into infrastructure, the U.S's bailout went to Wall St. China just completed the Super Train (250 mph) near me and finished two bridges in my province since my last go here in November. How are the roads, bridges, rails, electrical grid in the US holding up? I guess we do have Amtrack. Our trains barely stay on the tracks and China's goes 250 mph and at 10,000 ft. Japan, maybe in a deflationary cycle (forever maybe) but have you been there lately? What do you see? I see the most advanced country in the world so I see hope. How about Germany? I was there in the fall for an extended period and things there are robust in comparison to the US. Same in Sweden. England, Italy, Spain and France are a different story. They have major problems including a declining birthrate issue and a Muslim population explosion that will test their culture during the next decade. I can easily see Germany breaking way from the EU in the future. I don't advocate buying Euros. By the way I'll take the UK and their problems and I'll give you California and theirs anyday of the week. I have an office in LA...........impending diaster. By the way on one of my extended stays in China in 2009 there was a delegation from Los Angeles visiting including the mayor. They came to China to study it's school system to see why it's so effective and why LA's is failing. They came to study China's effective school system! Countries like China and India are beating us to death with their books not with their military.
I've made it a personal mission to visit at length and live and study in each of these countries since post 9/11 whether it was work related or not. I quit my "day" job for two years to gain a working knowledge. I wanted to see first hand instead of reading about it in the publications that are often quoted here or linked. I wanted to see with my own eyes and I have. We have so many experts in the US that pontificate about global economics and make predictions that have never even had their passports stamped in the countries they lay diatribe on.
Dave, basically you like the dollar as the worlds "default" currency and because we have a mighty military? Not a good enough reason for me. Especially since the latter could be jeopardized if our debt does not get bought up. Come to think of it, aren't we buying our own debt these days? Sort of like taking a Payday Loan and repaying it with a credit card.
I would exit the dollar at every opportunity. Personally, I'm almost there. Gold, Swiss Francs, Aussie, RMB and Canadian Dollars are where I want my friends and family to be. I aslo hold the yen as my default currency.
You are correct that the dollar is not going to zero. But, it is on a bobsled ride to he77 and he77 is a lot lower then it is now......JMHO for what it's worth.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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But, as I've stated many times, Europe is in much worse shape than the US and since the Euro is the largest component of the dollar basket, do not underestimate the recent rally of the dollar. >>
I agree with you that Europe is in very bad shape and the Euro is in big trouble. But sadly, does it make a difference in the mid and long term which is worse off - the Dollar or the Euro? Both are dying and would be dead if there was an alternative.
Both need to die and a sustainable currency be created. Any quick fix to either the Dollar or the Euro will only put off the massive pain people will feel all over the world when both currencies come tumbling down. Should the worse happen, leaders should then build a new foundation based upon staying within their means.
In the short term, use your skill to play the Dollar versus the Euro when it comes to stocks, commodities, and currency. Just be in the right things when the music stops and there are only one or two chairs to sit. >>
What are those two chairs? >>
I was writing metaphorically. There will be a number of ways to take advantage of an economic collapse. Most of these investments will not be the ordinary ways most people and many investors normally invest.
Gold will be one of those ways and it is wise for everyone to at least take a position in the PMs. How large a position depends on if you believe a total breakdown will take place and governments will be forced to add gold as a big piece of the new gold/currency basket or if you are optimistic and we only suffer a few years of financial uncertainty then a smaller position for insurance.
The other "chairs" will have to be determined in time. If the Euro falls before the US, playing the Dollar could make you wealthy. But then what? The US will still be straddled with trillions in debt, poor economic performance, a world in financial collapse, and holding on to a heavy anchor which will eventually expose the Dollar for what it really is - a paper tiger.
Both the Euro and the Dollar will either cease to exist or radical steps will be taken by the US and other nations to end the current madness of creating more debt to pay off existing debt. If it is the latter, we will all still feel a lot of financial pain because the cure will hurt a lot too.
Stay turned. If it was not so tragic with so many people getting hurt, it would be fun to sit back and watch how things unfold (from an academic standpoint).
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A very informative and educational post, MJ. Where would you live if you were retiring?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I would exit the dollar at every opportunity. Personally, I'm almost there. Gold, Swiss Francs, Aussie, RMB and Canadian Dollars are where I want my friends and family to be. I aslo hold the yen as my default currency.
A very informative and educational post, MJ. Where would you live if you were retiring? >>
My family is in the US so I'd stay home. I love my country but I feel like that Indian in the Don't Litter commerial in the 6o's and 70's with a tear rolling down my cheek. If I didn't have family in the US I would choose Singapore or Helsingborg Sweden . MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
When ever I go to Brazil I get a "few" extra Reais. I don't know when the SHTF if one can really protect themselves. I think all one can do is manage the KAOS. Being aware is half the battle. If gold does go to $8,000 per oz, does it really matter? What kind of world is that?
The two countries I would consider to live in is Chile and Brazil. But when it comes to family, I will stay in the U.S. (and fight.) I was in Southern California over Christmas and I could not see the "meltdown." I know it's there (I have lived there since 1965 until recently.) A year ago I saw "for sale" signs everywhere. Not so much now. The malls, and restaurants were full. But that was coastal California. I realize that there are many California's.
Looking at the bright side of our economic and political clime, it has waken up many that have lived their lives on the coat tails of the victories of the greatest generation. I have never seem so many on the path of self-education as now. I have never seen so many first time activists. Knowing our founding documents has become "cool" to more and more.
How low will the dollar go? Is there a chartist that can extrapolate where the dollar would be if gold doubled from here? I know these things are linear. I wish they were.
rant out
R95
I too have traveled and spent considerable time in Europe. I have many friends on both sides of the "iron curtain". I am not saying there is not considerable potential in China or Brazil. But I do belive there is considerable potential in the USA. You talk of infrastructure growth overseas, yet in this country we havent had a major project since the interstate highway system in the 50's. Every city on the East Coast needs to badly upgrade water, sewer, and electrical systems. What if we decide to build 250mph trains or upgrade our infrastructure? Wont we look like China does today? I see so much potential. We have an unbelievable amount of idled manufacturing capacity. We could probably produce more of anything than China--if it was cost effective. Buy why should we? For all intents purpose, and as bad as it sounds, the unfortunate, repressed citizens of China are our (and Europe's) slaves.
The USA is not going to suffer the demographic problems that Europe, Japan, and China will soon be facing. And once we get the baby boomers mostly out of the system, this country will rock. America has the smartest, most ambitious and most talented people on the planet. I am not willing to bet against them. The potential of America is tremendous. America is a young adult on the world stage. Europe, Japan, and China have roots that predate America by millennia and could be called "mature". And as most young adults, this country is full of bravado. We experiment, we take (undue) risks. A very small percentage of us dont fair well during this time, but the vast, vast majority do, and many very, very well. The odds are in America's favor that over the next 2-3 generations, America will flourish.
Yes, we have problems (some unique) in this country. But they are not insurmountable. It is easy to look around you and see the present, but that is mostly a reflection of history's ideas. I look for tomorrow's ideas, and I like what I see.
The USA's military will not be constrained by the ability or willingness of the world to buy our debt. If we want to build more airplanes or tanks, we WILL build them, no "money" need trade hands. At my local airport, soldiers report to duty in a computer room and fly remote controlled airplanes 5000 miles away to blow up people who have no regard for individual rights. How amazing is that!!??
I have not been to Japan and agree that they are "advanced" in some respects. But they will soon have excess. There will no longer be a need for more hospitals, more highways, more automobiles. I was also in Germany this past August and have several friends there. They complain to me of excessive taxes and high costs of goods. While the highways were exceptional, try finding conviences such as a hotel or restaurant that do not require you to drive 3 miles off the highway. No "easy on, easy off" exits. I also lived in England for a time--about 20 years ago--and will gladly take Cali over the UK. Much better looking women.
If people are going to China to study the school system, then they will again fail at providing education. The problem is the system, but the students lives while they are not in school. You think making kids wear uniforms and expand the school year to 250 days will make better students? Not if you dont get PARENTS to view the importance of education, to become involved in their kids lives and schooling. Parents need to stop viewing schools as baby sitters.
Why do you consider the YEN to be your default currency?
What do you see in Europe that gives them an advantage over the USA?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Socialism is truly the root of all evil when it comes to the destruction of a society.
One hundred and fifty years ago Great Britain had the smartest, bravest, most creative people on the planet, and now? Socialism is what happened to Great Britain and all the European powers. Socialism and its brother communism is what has happened to Russia, Cuba, etc.
Those countries that are changing more to freedom and capitalism will succeed.
Over one half of the citizens in the United States get some form of money from the government, and I would venture to say that is more per capita than in Communist China.
Yes we could fix our country and perhaps a will to due that is being developed, but that will is not there yet.
In order for the United States to turn the corner and go the other direction, we must give up these socialist ideas, reverse the problems caused by Nafta, our borrowing habits, our belief we can be a “service economy”, etc.
Will we go down the tubes in the next few months? Very unlikely. First when the foreigners stop loaning us money the government can tap our retirement accounts, then it can just print the money. There is a process to every ponzi scheme and they have not used all the tools yet.
I can think of no country that ever reversed the course of socialism once more than half of their population were on the dole without first experiencing a major collapse. Therefore will we have a collapse, yes we will. When will things get really ugly? It could be any time in the next 5 years, but it is on the way.
Countries, like people, have destinies, our destiny is changing for the worse and we will all just have to go through it. Don’t be fooled by HOPE. There is no hope this will be reversed, so be prepared.
We have to look inward not outward to the world to solve our problems. Borrowing money from foreigners soon will be be our demise.
Box of 20
The others just bomb to gravel piles until they are no more or act right. This pc ~ pu_sy stuff just ain't working for me.
Buy Au & Ag as much and as often as possible! Paper promises are on thin ice! Peace, Tim
I am with you. Let the rest of the world fry. The Global economy is the biggest lie ever told!!!
No time to say all I want. I am in the US Military and will take the US' problems over anyone elses' any day.
China is going to have big problems within about five years.
Anyone wanna bet?
If you Goggle the best or nicest places to live in the world Denmark, Norway and Sweden always seem to make the list. However, I can tell you first hand that the cosmopolitan areas there are brutally expensive. Helsingborg, Sweden offers the following- it's a ferry ride across from Copenhagen so it offers cosmopoltian lifestyle within reach but at half the cost. It's on the water. The people are scary friendly and everyone smiles. They tend to be beautiful inside and out. The city looks like Verona Italy believe it or not. I like winter and summer sports. I'm a huge Detroit Red Wings fan. Half of Detroit's team is Swedes so they follow them religously. That's just a bonus.
Top three- 1) Sweden as mentioned above 2) Singapore- the best of Asia and relatively cheap. 3) Canada- safe, best banks in the world, low unemployement , sparsely populated and close to home : ) . All the these countries had some downside as well, but as a whole body of work these would be my picks.
<<The two countries I would consider to live in is Chile and Brazil. But when it comes to family, I will stay in the U.S. (and fight.) I was in Southern California over Christmas and I could not see the "meltdown." I know it's there (I have lived there since 1965 until recently.) A year ago I saw "for sale" signs everywhere. Not so much now. The malls, and restaurants were full. But that was coastal California. I realize that there are many California's.>.
I love Chile ( I used to play volleyball there). I've worked out of there as well as Brazil. Chile is like California. Mountains to the east and the Pacific to the west. The people are wonderful and beautiful without pretences. renman- it was the drive down Cresent Heights from W Hollywood to my office in LA that tipped me off to the impending housing crisis. Over a one year peroid I notice that more and more houses were going up for sale every week one by one (2006). I only use that office one week a month on average so it became painfully obvious what was happening. Side bar- Renman- I enjoy your posts.
Dave- I think you're awesome, extremely bright and ALWAYS read your posts. I just tend to disagree on a lot of stuff when it comes to your Pro-US stance. I think you are a homer
1) I do not think we have the brightest people but I guess that's a matter of definition. I do however, think we can adapt better then most and can re-invent ourselves so there is considerable hope. I do think we have the edge on bright and beautiful minds where as the China's and India's tend to produce brilliant students and technicians with great linear thinking.
2) the UK does produce some pretty hot women but I will concede California to you on that point
3)<Why do you consider the YEN to be your default currency?> Both the yen and the dollar are defacto carry trade currencies. However, the yen trumps the dollar in that category. The trend is the yen. I also like that Japan is a huge TWO way trading partner with China. Actually the trilogy of trading between China, Japan and Australia is mind numbing. I think it would shock most people to study these numbers. Each of them can be the TOP two way trading partners in the world at any given moment. So the yen is an Asian Pacific play.
4) <What do you see in Europe that gives them an advantage over the USA? > I don't as a whole. Europe is not the EU. Give me Germany, Norway, Sweden and Denmark and you can have the rest of Europe
<<No time to say all I want. I am in the US Military and will take the US' problems over anyone elses' any day.China is going to have big problems within about five years.Anyone wanna bet?>>
I'll take that bet. I've been hearing the same thing for the best ten years. What do you base that staement on? And if you are correct then the US will have it twice as bad. I think you should hope you are wrong. We need China to succeed, the entire world does. They are the next world's economic superpower. Great Britian in the 19th century, the US in the 20th century and China in the 21st. During each of the times of the superpowers no one could ever see their reign coming to an end. It would be scoffed at. By the way, it would be cool to pass the baton so we could worry about our own problems instead of the worlds. I would think we should relish a new roll. The world no longer revolves around the US. Americans have been taught otherwise and have a hard time dealing with statements like that. Thank you for your service. Huge respect.
Gold Saint- well said, well said indeed.
1jester-<< reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution>>
The only way you get revolution in the US if if the goverment takes away the peoples cable. Then and only then we see protests in the streets.
JMHO, MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
MJ
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see. >>
I agree. When I visited China it was clear that the US was not much different. It is amazing how much we have in common - especially when you consider items like internal suspicionless immigration checkpoints (that aren't on or near the border), eminent domain, and now the mandate to purchase health insurance.
Perhaps I could be optimistic like Cohodk if I saw some kind of movement in a positive direction, but right now I don't see any positive or potentially positive developments. I agree that things can turn around, but things certainly don't look like they're going to.
<< <i>Hello,
No time to say all I want. I am in the US Military and will take the US' problems over anyone elses' any day.
China is going to have big problems within about five years.
Anyone wanna bet? >>
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE!
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
Everyone wants the system to work for them, whether it works for anyone else or not. That's socialism. That's Animal Farm. The true believers believe in perfect equality for all until it is achieved. Then it becomes a case of "some animals are more equal than others". That's what you get with 17 legislators taking 5 private jets to Copenhagen for the global warming party, while the rest of us pay for their junket.
There's all this talk of creating a crisis that will show that the constitutional form of government has failed. That's going to be hard to show if we haven't been following the constitutional form of government in the first place. There is some merit to the fear that the Constitution is being targeted for revocation, although not overtly because that would freak people out.
We have a supposed constitutional law professor in the White House. If he were such a great proponent of the Constitution, I would think that he would start bringing up Constitutional issues and demand that we start following the supreme law of the land. That sure hasn't happened.
Checks and Balances. I think that the whole structure is so brilliant that it will survive. I think that it's up to all true Americans to make sure that it does. jmho.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The thing that all other countries don't have is the brilliant design created by our founding fathers. The design is imbued with checks & balances, and a historical perspective such that it is hard to railroad the whole system. Other countries haven't been afforded that advantage.
Everyone wants the system to work for them, whether it works for anyone else or not. That's socialism. That's Animal Farm. The true believers believe in perfect equality for all until it is achieved. Then it becomes a case of "some animals are more equal than others". That's what you get with 17 legislators taking 5 private jets to Copenhagen for the global warming party, while the rest of us pay for their junket.
There's all this talk of creating a crisis that will show that the constitutional form of government has failed. That's going to be hard to show if we haven't been following the constitutional form of government in the first place. There is some merit to the fear that the Constitution is being targeted for revocation, although not overtly because that would freak people out.
We have a supposed constitutional law professor in the White House. If he were such a great proponent of the Constitution, I would think that he would start bringing up Constitutional issues and demand that we start following the supreme law of the land. That sure hasn't happened.
Checks and Balances. I think that the whole structure is so brilliant that it will survive. I think that it's up to all true Americans to make sure that it does. jmho. >>
I'm as optimistic as the next guy but I know the Constitution can afford us no
protection at all. Its ink wasn't even dry before the Articles of Confederation
were improperly and illegally circumvented for its institutution. It was supposed
to require the votes of nine states to superceed the older document but it was
railroaded through with a simple majority. They could never have gotten the
other two votes without an extensive rewrite to include more state's rights.
If you want protection then look to the Declaration of Independence.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Yen to fall, dollar to rise, China sovereign fund official says - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. dollar has hit bottom while the yen will continue to decline, Peng Junming, an official at China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said. Both the United States and China would likely raise interest rates in the second half of the year, said Peng, who resides in the China Investment Corp's asset allocation department, in a speech. Peng added that China should have the right attitude about gold and not rush to buy it now because the price is too high.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>So China wants to dump dollar? Really?
Yen to fall, dollar to rise, China sovereign fund official says - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. dollar has hit bottom while the yen will continue to decline, Peng Junming, an official at China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said. Both the United States and China would likely raise interest rates in the second half of the year, said Peng, who resides in the China Investment Corp's asset allocation department, in a speech. Peng added that China should have the right attitude about gold and not rush to buy it now because the price is too high. >>
Interesting. The dollar is up against every currency except for one today. The yen. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
You misunderstand me, clad. I'm not entirely sure that the USA will survive what's going on, and all of the documents of Western Civilization are important, but the Constitution is the key.
What I mean is this. Even though the big special interests are manipulating as many things as possible, the people eventually catch on - even the people who comprise those special interests. For example, the Democrats will vie for control within their own party, as will the Republicans. The President will wrestle for authority with the Supreme Court, even if he appointed them. Congress will continue to run scared if they think that they might get voted out. Corporations will continue to buy votes while transferring jobs out of the country. The Senate Leader will continue to buy votes. Various governors will point out how their own state is being screwed. The media will continue to say whatever they think will keep them in favor.
The ones on the short end of the stick will always pick up the Constitution and shake it at the offenders, saying - "stop trampling on the Constitution!!!!"
Attitudes have to change, and we just might be seeing that right now.
It's messy, and ugly - we all see that. OTOH, I think that **just maybe** the system will work. I am really hoping for a swing in attitudes in the complete opposite direction of where we've been going lately. Too many feet are being stepped on when the unions are told that their cadillac plans will be taxed. More issues will follow. Even the welfare recipients won't get what they've been promised and I suspect that a fair number of them will begin to "think", eventually.
At some point, they might realize that it's not really "Obama's money" and at some point, even Obama might realize that working for a living is necessary in the real world.
I knew it would happen.
I find this to be very humorous, as I consider myslef to be the LEAST US-centric of anyone on the boards. I am the only one who consistantly posts links to stories about economic conditions in the rest of the world. All I hear about is how bad it is in the USA.
Seriously, and I sincerely dont mean any disrespect, some of you need to stop reading all the gold bug newsletters---and their incessant bashing of the USA-- and start reading newspapers from other parts of the world. Or at least have Bloomberg.com as your home internet page. Click on REGIONS, and read what is going on in other parts of the globe. Stop watching Fox news and CNN and all other mainstream media outlets. Dont watch CurrentTV or listen to NPR or Rush, ect either.
Does anyone know that Dubai was the worse real estate market in the world last year with prices falling 50%. Or that real estate in New Zealand is back to 2007 levels and priced at about 10x the average Kiwi's income? Or did you know that the "reported" unemployment in Spain is 19%. Or that in Southern Italy--where unemployment is near 20%--migrant workers had to be evacuated?
One must learn the difference and the implications of the words relativity and absolute.
GS, I never once use the word "hope". And I never will as I do not believe it.
You have to ask yourself, "Do I think the USA wants to survive and flourish?" If your answer is no, then I can only wish you good luck. If your answer is yes, which I believe, then rest assured that we as a people will ensure a strong and viable future for our children.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The YEN lost nearly 8% of its value vs the dollar in the last 6 weeks and touched the 200dma last Thursday. A bounce, which started last Thursday, was/is highly predictable and expected.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You have to ask yourself, "Do I think the USA wants to survive and flourish?" If your answer is no, then I can only wish you good luck. If your answer is yes, which I believe, then rest assured that we as a people will ensure a strong and viable future for our children. >>
The people do, but the politicians don't seem to. Most of them want to get rid of the pesky Constitution so they can grow their power.