<< <i>You have to ask yourself, "Do I think the USA wants to survive and flourish?" If your answer is no, then I can only wish you good luck. If your answer is yes, which I believe, then rest assured that we as a people will ensure a strong and viable future for our children. >>
The people do, but the politicians don't seem to. Most of them want to get rid of the pesky Constitution so they can grow their power. >>
Politicians work for the people. When the people finally develop the balls to start firing their employees, the Constitution will be preserved.
MJ, I respect your opinions and knowledge as well. While not saying we are on polar opposites, the most likely outcome will be somewhere between our beliefs. As long as we do not allow our convictions to overwhelm rational thought, and react in time, then we should both prove to be successful, as it should be.
<< <i>As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk
I find this to be very humorous, as I consider myslef to be the LEAST US-centric of anyone on the boards. I am the only one who consistantly posts links to stories about economic conditions in the rest of the world. All I hear about is how bad it is in the USA.
Seriously, and I sincerely dont mean any disrespect, some of you need to stop reading all the gold bug newsletters---and their incessant bashing of the USA-- and start reading newspapers from other parts of the world. >>
Apart from doing all that, in many languages, I have also lived in 7 different countries on 3 continents for a total of over 20 years, as well as 12 different states of the Union, and visited over 50 nations on 4 continents and every state except Alaska. So my experience doesn't come from merely soaking up what different media have to say.
MJ is obviously another very experienced observer, and I appreciate what he has to say!
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>Interesting. The dollar is up against every currency except for one today. The yen. MJ
The YEN lost nearly 8% of its value vs the dollar in the last 6 weeks and touched the 200dma last Thursday. A bounce, which started last Thursday, was/is highly predictable and expected. >>
So then the article you posted isn't current then? The Yen is crowbarring the dollar today. Up 1.25% which is huge. I hope you're on this trade Lay-up.
As for the yen vs the dollar. Over the past two years the yen is up over the dollar something like 20%
Over the past five years the yen is up over the dollar something like 30%
Not that I keep track of that sort of thing. Nice cherrypick of a timeframe sir. That's the great thing about numbers.
The nice thing about currencies is that the long term trend is your friend............MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
We are not the only militaristic country it seems, but the only one that does like to start wars. What surprises me is Vietnam's army of 10 million. There seems to be other countries capable of shouldering the load of being the policemen of the world.
Cut the size of every gov. program, and gov. agency, 10% just to start.
Raise interest rates to 5%.
Tell Joe six pack the guys on Wall Street are never going to make them any money, and we need 30% of all retirement monies to be ready to invest in U.S. debt if the foreigners want to sell.
Pass tariffs on everything that CAN be made in the U.S.
Kick the UN out of New York and tell them to go somewhere else.
Have the gov. make loans to all qualified businesses that want to re-build America.
Shut the Mexican border and deport all illegals but adjust the quotes for the workers we need.
Stop letting any one from any of the “Terrorists” nations come here for travel, or anything else, unless they have undergone a complete screening.
This will give us a good start back to our heritage.
As for the yen vs the dollar. Over the past two years the yen is up over the dollar something like 20%
Up a heck of a lot more than that over the past 25.
The Yen is crowbarring the dollar today. Up 1.25% which is huge. I hope you're on this trade Lay-up
Didnt trade the YEN as I dont follow it that closely. Classic chart pattern though. I am short silver though as mentioned in the trading thread and up 1.5% on that trade, so I guess we'll call it a draw.
<< <i>As for the yen vs the dollar. Over the past two years the yen is up over the dollar something like 20%
Up a heck of a lot more than that over the past 25.
The Yen is crowbarring the dollar today. Up 1.25% which is huge. I hope you're on this trade Lay-up
Didnt trade the YEN as I dont follow it that closely. Classic chart pattern though. I am short silver though as mentioned in the trading thread and up 1.5% on that trade, so I guess we'll call it a draw. >>
I think the best you and I will ever have is draws
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Yen to fall, dollar to rise, China sovereign fund official says - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. dollar has hit bottom while the yen will continue to decline, Peng Junming, an official at China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said. Both the United States and China would likely raise interest rates in the second half of the year, said Peng, who resides in the China Investment Corp's asset allocation department, in a speech. Peng added that China should have the right attitude about gold and not rush to buy it now because the price is too high. >>
It seems that the Fed's jawboning strong dollar stopped working eons ago, so now China (with 2+ trill) is picking up the ball. Will it work, and for how long? Strong dollar talk pushes gold cheaper, right? I don't see China selling the gold they have recently acquired. Maybe they are trying to 'quietly' (lol) buy more Au while talking 'strong dollar' & ease out of $ denom assets. If it makes too much sense, then I must be way off
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
Yen to fall, dollar to rise, China sovereign fund official says - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. dollar has hit bottom while the yen will continue to decline, Peng Junming, an official at China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said. Both the United States and China would likely raise interest rates in the second half of the year, said Peng, who resides in the China Investment Corp's asset allocation department, in a speech. Peng added that China should have the right attitude about gold and not rush to buy it now because the price is too high. >>
It seems that the Fed's jawboning strong dollar stopped working eons ago, so now China (with 2+ trill) is picking up the ball. Will it work, and for how long? Strong dollar talk pushes gold cheaper, right? I don't see China selling the gold they have recently acquired. Maybe they are trying to 'quietly' (lol) buy more Au while talking 'strong dollar' & ease out of $ denom assets. If it makes too much sense, then I must be way off >>
I find it ironic that a lot of pundits/talking heads critize China for the economic data they release as being jacked up. Then the same pundits will rally behind quotes like this as basis for their cause. It's called fitting a story to fit your needs.
Think about it. If you wanted to buy something (gold) and you wanted to buy it cheaper how would you go about it? Or better yet, if you wanted to get out of something ( the dollar) and wanted to do it gracefully and not it a bargain basement price how would you do it? You would come out and say that the dollar has bottomed and gold was too high. Or exactly what the China Investment Corp just realeased. It's rather shallow and transparent . No news here. Jawboning and grandstanding par excellence. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
interesting that they mentioned ski resorts (tourism) as a positive condition for two districts. okay and tongue planted firmly in cheek....i drained may spa and bought spa chemicals, didn't see a blip there about home improvement.
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries declined after an investor class that includes foreign central banks bought the least amount of 10-year notes offered at today’s $21 billion auction of the securities since April
Indirect bidders bought 29 percent of the notes, compared with an average for the past 10 auctions of 38.8 percent. President Barack Obama is depending on foreign investors to help finance the nation’s debt. Overseas investors held $3.5 trillion, or 50 percent of the U.S. public debt as of October, according to the most recent data available from the Treasury. The outstanding public debt reached $7.27 trillion in December.
Primary dealers, which are required to bid at Treasury auctions, bought 53.7 percent of the 10-year notes offered.
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Overall consumer prices rose 2.7% in 2009. These are the govt's figures. If one takes out food and energy then the core number is +1.8%. These are hardly deflationary numbers and lower than 2008. If one uses the govt's 1980 methodology the numbers are several percent higher. These were the smallest gains since 2003, but gains nonetheless. What will the numbers be when the stimulus injections finally reach J6P's level?
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
The irony is that I'm in China having drinks with Peter Schiffs mother as I type this. Small world. Ellen says hello
We work together...........MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
The irony is that I'm in China having drinks with Peter Schiffs mother as I type this. Small world. Ellen says hello
We work together...........MJ >>
Cool! Tell them hi from me! For those in the know, the air really is freer in places where people have had to experience hard core communism, and the memory is still fresh in their minds.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Hello, I just noticed this on the BEP website about bill production. Why in our recessionary economy is $100 bill production going up so much? [Not sure if the columns will line up but you get the trend.]
It could be related to changes in design or preparing for new designs. Aren't they releasing a new $100 this year? Would they maybe pre-print those in 2009 or would that be allowed?
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
As most here know my wife is from Poland. My sigline links to her hometown. I've spent considerable time in Poland the last 8 years and have seen a remarkable transformation. So remarkable, that much of Poland is now priced beyond the means of most Poles. Real estate in many areas makes the USA look cheap. There is still a lot of growth potential-A LOT, but the country needs to stabilze its growth to keep it sustainable. The mafia is still powerful there. Poland will be a staunch ally of the USA in coming decades and will be the recipient of much US aid/intervention. Its future is very bright.
Reggie Middleton is keeping track of what the banks have paid back. Here's a list of 10 things they haven't paid back yet.
So, running down the list, the banks paid back TARP. That's a +, but....
-What was the value for bank charter, to get cheap access to the Fed's funds? did they pay back this value yet? No! -How about the payment of interest on the banks' excess reserves at the Fed. Have the banks repaid that yet? No! -The Fed and the Treasury have purchased hundreds of billions of dollars of Agency debt, Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and related securities through Treasury purchase programs. Have the banks paid back the capital behind those purchases yet? No! -How about the Term Auction Facility? Has the capital behind the benefits of that program been paid back? No! -Then there is the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), has this been paid back? No! -Do you remember the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)? Have the funds behind that been paid back? No! -What about the PPIP? No! -Hey, there's the Foreign Exchange Swap programs (the currency swap lines, that saved not only our banks but out banks facing counterparties who were short on dollars), has that been paid back? No! -There's the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), have the funds behind that been paid back? No! -Most importantly, the opportunity cost of ZIRP, which hurts those who do not speculate (or have not speculated) with near free money! How do you pay that back to grandma and her .017% CDs?
Campaign finance reform being tossed out today by the Supreme Court seems eerily similar to the repeal of Glass-Steagall back in 1999 and the lifting of the caps on Fannie and Freddie just a month ago. The bankers got their prizes and now the corporations and unions have theirs. J6P did get cash for clunkers and a mortgage rebate but both are short term and applied to a tiny fraction of the population. Those other handouts are unlimited and without a time restraint. Well, at least J6P still has $Cash4Gold. That is still unlimited and with no time restraint. Joe can turn over all the gold he desires for FRN's for as long as he's alive. Call it all even?
“Primary dealers, which are required to bid at Treasury auctions, bought 53.7 percent of the 10-year notes offered.”
So what about this?
The Fed offers to lend the big banks up to a Trillion dollars, with the requirement that if there is an auction of U.S. bills and notes, and the foreigners do not buy it all the big banks MUST!
Therefore the big banks have NO money to lend to business, because they are using all their money borrowed money from the Fed. to buy Treasuries.
Naturally they make loads of money since the borrowings from the Fed. Have a 0% interest rate.
Obama seeing this wants to TAX them to get some of that “RISK” free profit back.
Now we know why the big banks aren’t lending, and why they are making huge profits to pay their people.
Sure good trading might help, but it won’t help that much this year as it looks like the stock market has found a trading range.
This does account for why these auctions continue to sell out and why the Fed. Does not want anyone to see their books.
If the word gets out that the Fed. Is supplying interest free money to the banks so that NO Treasury auctions will fail, this game of musical chairs is over my friends.
Gold was pretty resilient today in the face of the general stock market coming unglued. The dollar should have gone ballistic but instead it bucked the strong dollar=weak market trend and itstead was slightly down. Worth keeping an eye on. UDX is struggling with $78.30. Heavy resistance. Monday should not be dull. Lots of news out of Washington and noise driving the market now.
I'm guessing that is a yearly dollar chart above. It looks like if it can't break out over $78.30 that it will resume it's downtrend and threaten $74.00 and then $72.00. Eventually it will go even lower. A break over $78.30 with conviction and then it will probably hit $80.00 before it resumes it's gravity test and falls from there
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Agreed, the dollar chart has potential. But a correction was due after that move down from March. The first hurdle is reaching the 38% fib in the 79's and then the 50% at around 81. The dollar's move is still so young (<2 months) that it's really hard to say what it is. I'll get a lot more concerned if the GSR finally decides to blow through the 200 dma line that has restrained it so perfectly since May. It shifted from strong support to strong resistance in the first half of 2009. A strong break of the 65-66 range on the GSR can fully unleash the dollar.
She communicates exceptionally well, and since this was about the Great Depression and folk here are interested in it, I thought to post the short. Oh yes, she uses a very nice word that you don't hear very often for you wordsmithians out there..."abstemious" : sparingly used or indulged in
I've made many mentions of the importance of demographics for a country's economy and currency so I thought this article would be a good read in this thread.
Investors are rushing to gold, because they rightly fear far higher inflation in the next couple of years and want to hedge against both rising prices and a declining dollar with a commodity that, they claim, has a fixed supply.
Since early 2009, the price has jumped to $1,100 an ounce from $875, triple its average price between 1990 and 2004. Yet the supply of gold is far more fluid than the gold bugs admit, partly because mining companies are investing heavily to increase production.
The real threat: Prices are so high all over the world that people who once treasured their gold jewelry are now rushing to sell it. Swiss refiners are offering irresistible prices for bracelets and brooches, "cash-for-gold" stores are in Chicago malls, and suburbanites are hosting Tupperware-style parties where neighbors show up to hock their gold teeth.
When this happened in the early 1980s with silver, prices plummeted from $50 to $15 in less than a year. Look for gold to end up below $500 an ounce within two years.
Was the destruction of the dollar as rampant back then too? $500 Gold? I just don't see it with the printing presses going full throttle.
Since early 2009, the price has jumped to $1,100 an ounce from $875, triple its average price between 1990 and 2004. Yet the supply of gold is far more fluid than the gold bugs admit, partly because mining companies are investing heavily to increase production.
The author calls $1100 gold "astounding." That's 26% higher than it's peak 1980 price w/o inflation adjustments. Yet the author makes no such claims for housing which is probably 500% higher than 1980, education which is probably around 1000% higher, cars are about 500-800% higher, stocks at around 1200%, etc. Even oil is around the same price as it was in 1980 yet gold and oil are 2 of the ones most singled out....things that actually get used for something whether it be to implicitly back currency or power the world's energy machine. The author says housing is not in a bubble any longer. I'm not so sure. Isn't that one of the primary drop offs for asset inflation over the past 30 years? But one thing I'm sure of is that commodities are still playing catchup from their 1980-2002 down cycle. The author needs to recognize that high prices in one asset don't necessarily mean it's in a bubble. Gold is only responding to deteriorating currency values. It doesn't rise in price in a vacuum. When fiat currencies are stabilized so will gold. Until that occurs, gold will rise. The only true bubble is in fiat money. Food prices are multiples higher than 1980 yet I don't see the author singling those out. Not only that but the packages have been downsized to hide the price increases.
Not so sure about how fluid gold production is per the author. He must think that miners snap their fingers and can double production at will, just like when widgets are being made. Yet production has declined for 8 years now in the face of prices quadrupling. If this follows the framework of the 1970's gold boom, mining production won't peak for 5-7 years AFTER prices have crested. In other words too late to turn prices. It takes from 5-10 yrs to bring a new mine on line....assuming it ever becomes profitable. The miners were so busy playing the carry trade in the 1990's that ignored infrastructure. The bankers loved it. Miners are still recovering from that mis-step. Besides production being down this past decade, miners are spending 2X to 3X what they did before on costs. Even with gold prices much higher they have still struggled with energy costs, infrastructure failures, strikes, nationalizations, permits being pulled, currency exchange risks, etc. The net effect is many of them are still doing no better at $1100-$1200 gold than they were at $600 gold. It's not all gravy. As nations start to look to keep their own natural resources at home start watching to see efforts to take over more mines, especially in all but the safest of jurisdictions.
Mining is hard and risky work. One of the few ways for bigger companies to stay alive is to swallow up the smaller ones. The amount of ore they have to process to get the same production has increased dramatically. They are having to mine deeper and in more remote/risky regions just to keep up. If it weren't for the scrap gold boom the past year prices would have shot up much higher. Scrap gold was the biggest "miner" in 2009...but even their output fell dramatically after the 1st quarter.
The real threat: Prices are so high all over the world that people who once treasured their gold jewelry are now rushing to sell it. Swiss refiners are offering irresistible prices for bracelets and brooches, "cash-for-gold" stores are in Chicago malls, and suburbanites are hosting Tupperware-style parties where neighbors show up to hock their gold teeth.
The scrap gold business is probably the cheapest "mining operation" out there. While spot prices are high, the cash for gold buyers pay a 30-50% pittance on average. Would these same people be flocking to gold parties if the spot price of gold were $400 and they were getting 100% of spot? That's what they're getting at $1200 spot with cash for gold. When the scrap for gold business starts to dry up that will leave a huge hole in the gold supply equation. The Central Bank sales have dried up and they are now a net drain on the system as buyers. In 2-3 years the price of gold will probably be double what it is today, not $500. The only true asset bubbles are in paper fiat and paper backed bonds. Assets you can hold and touch will always be worth something, esp. those things that have been around for 5,000 years.
The real threat: Prices are so high all over the world that people who once treasured their gold jewelry are now rushing to sell it.
Yep, that'll influence world gold prices. A threat? People having less gold will be a threat?
When this happened in the early 1980s with silver, prices plummeted from $50 to $15 in less than a year.
The fact that the CFTC sandbagged the Hunts by changing margin requirements in the middle of the game, and the fact that Volker raised interest rates to 20+% had nothing to do with silver's drop. Doh!!!
I suspect that we won't be looking at 20% interest rates anytime soon. Heck, the banks aren't lending now, and they're getting free money! How hard will it be to sell money when rates go up???
Where do these people come from?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
There's been talks of high speed rail for decades but they never get anywhere. The only way it's going to happen is as a porkulous project and then fares will probably have to be heavily subsidized. Who will take the train when it's so cheap to fly? Well, at least as long as fares don't climb dramatically higher. The only time I'd probably consider such a train is on medium-range trips - 500 to 1000 miles, as the time dealing with an airport is often more than the length of the flight.
I don't make many short term metals calls because I don't like being wrong.
I'm gioing to break this rule to suggest the bull is warming up. This charge may not be THE charge but I do believe the bottom is in or will be within a couple days. I'd expect some drama soon in the silver market.
<< <i>I don't make many short term metals calls because I don't like being wrong.
I'm gioing to break this rule to suggest the bull is warming up. This charge may not be THE charge but I do believe the bottom is in or will be within a couple days. I'd expect some drama soon in the silver market. >>
<< <i>I watched the Tim Giethner senate hearing today. He said that he saved the world and can't believe any one would question his actions. >>
Why doesn't he just start wearing a Superman costume? Wonder if he took that tax money he never paid and bought gold? PM's up this am after State of The Union. Not surprising.
Is it just me, or is this a precursor of something to come??????
Suspending Money Market Redemptions Is Now Legal; SEC Approves New Money Market Regulation In 4-1 Vote Tyler Durden on 01/27/2010 11:31 -0500 Mary Schapiro
Zero Hedge discussed a month ago the disastrous prospects of what would happen if the new proposal contemplated by the SEC, which would allow the suspension of redemptions from Money Market Funds, were to pass. Well, in a nearly unanimous vote, Money Market Funds now have the ability to suspend redemptions, courtesy of the SEC’s just passed 4-1 vote. This explains the negative rate on bills: at this point, should there be another meltdown, money market investors will not, repeat not, be able to withdraw their money purely on the whim of Mary Schapiro. As the SEC noted: "We understand that suspending redemptions may impose hardships on investors who rely on their ability to redeem shares." Too bad investors’ hardships considerations ended up being completely irrelevant.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>You have to ask yourself, "Do I think the USA wants to survive and flourish?" If your answer is no, then I can only wish you good luck. If your answer is yes, which I believe, then rest assured that we as a people will ensure a strong and viable future for our children. >>
The people do, but the politicians don't seem to. Most of them want to get rid of the pesky Constitution so they can grow their power. >>
Politicians work for the people. When the people finally develop the balls to start firing their employees, the Constitution will be preserved.
MJ, I respect your opinions and knowledge as well. While not saying we are on polar opposites, the most likely outcome will be somewhere between our beliefs. As long as we do not allow our convictions to overwhelm rational thought, and react in time, then we should both prove to be successful, as it should be.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk
I find this to be very humorous, as I consider myslef to be the LEAST US-centric of anyone on the boards. I am the only one who consistantly posts links to stories about economic conditions in the rest of the world. All I hear about is how bad it is in the USA.
Seriously, and I sincerely dont mean any disrespect, some of you need to stop reading all the gold bug newsletters---and their incessant bashing of the USA-- and start reading newspapers from other parts of the world. >>
Apart from doing all that, in many languages, I have also lived in 7 different countries on 3 continents for a total of over 20 years, as well as 12 different states of the Union, and visited over 50 nations on 4 continents and every state except Alaska. So my experience doesn't come from merely soaking up what different media have to say.
MJ is obviously another very experienced observer, and I appreciate what he has to say!
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>Interesting. The dollar is up against every currency except for one today. The yen. MJ
The YEN lost nearly 8% of its value vs the dollar in the last 6 weeks and touched the 200dma last Thursday. A bounce, which started last Thursday, was/is highly predictable and expected. >>
So then the article you posted isn't current then? The Yen is crowbarring the dollar today. Up 1.25% which is huge. I hope you're on this trade
As for the yen vs the dollar. Over the past two years the yen is up over the dollar something like 20%
Over the past five years the yen is up over the dollar something like 30%
Not that I keep track of that sort of thing. Nice cherrypick of a timeframe sir. That's the great thing about numbers.
The nice thing about currencies is that the long term trend is your friend............MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Standing armies.
Box of 20
Cut the size of every gov. program, and gov. agency, 10% just to start.
Raise interest rates to 5%.
Tell Joe six pack the guys on Wall Street are never going to make them any money,
and we need 30% of all retirement monies to be ready to invest in U.S. debt if the foreigners want to sell.
Pass tariffs on everything that CAN be made in the U.S.
Kick the UN out of New York and tell them to go somewhere else.
Have the gov. make loans to all qualified businesses that want to re-build America.
Shut the Mexican border and deport all illegals but adjust the quotes for the workers we need.
Stop letting any one from any of the “Terrorists” nations come here for travel, or anything else, unless they have undergone a complete screening.
This will give us a good start back to our heritage.
"Gold Price Plunges $25 to $1,125....."
As the price of gold goes higher a 'price plunge' of $25 is not really that much.
At $300 an ounce this same amount of a 'price plunge' would have been a drop of $6.50.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Up a heck of a lot more than that over the past 25.
The Yen is crowbarring the dollar today. Up 1.25% which is huge. I hope you're on this trade Lay-up
Didnt trade the YEN as I dont follow it that closely. Classic chart pattern though. I am short silver though as mentioned in the trading thread and up 1.5% on that trade, so I guess we'll call it a draw.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>As for the yen vs the dollar. Over the past two years the yen is up over the dollar something like 20%
Up a heck of a lot more than that over the past 25.
The Yen is crowbarring the dollar today. Up 1.25% which is huge. I hope you're on this trade Lay-up
Didnt trade the YEN as I dont follow it that closely. Classic chart pattern though. I am short silver though as mentioned in the trading thread and up 1.5% on that trade, so I guess we'll call it a draw. >>
I think the best you and I will ever have is draws
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>So China wants to dump dollar? Really?
Yen to fall, dollar to rise, China sovereign fund official says - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. dollar has hit bottom while the yen will continue to decline, Peng Junming, an official at China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said. Both the United States and China would likely raise interest rates in the second half of the year, said Peng, who resides in the China Investment Corp's asset allocation department, in a speech. Peng added that China should have the right attitude about gold and not rush to buy it now because the price is too high. >>
It seems that the Fed's jawboning strong dollar stopped working eons ago, so now China (with 2+ trill) is picking up the ball. Will it work, and for how long?
Strong dollar talk pushes gold cheaper, right? I don't see China selling the gold they have recently acquired. Maybe they are trying to 'quietly' (lol) buy more Au while talking 'strong dollar' & ease out of $ denom assets.
If it makes too much sense, then I must be way off
<< <i>
<< <i>So China wants to dump dollar? Really?
Yen to fall, dollar to rise, China sovereign fund official says - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. dollar has hit bottom while the yen will continue to decline, Peng Junming, an official at China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said. Both the United States and China would likely raise interest rates in the second half of the year, said Peng, who resides in the China Investment Corp's asset allocation department, in a speech. Peng added that China should have the right attitude about gold and not rush to buy it now because the price is too high. >>
It seems that the Fed's jawboning strong dollar stopped working eons ago, so now China (with 2+ trill) is picking up the ball. Will it work, and for how long?
Strong dollar talk pushes gold cheaper, right? I don't see China selling the gold they have recently acquired. Maybe they are trying to 'quietly' (lol) buy more Au while talking 'strong dollar' & ease out of $ denom assets.
If it makes too much sense, then I must be way off
I find it ironic that a lot of pundits/talking heads critize China for the economic data they release as being jacked up. Then the same pundits will rally behind quotes like this as basis for their cause. It's called fitting a story to fit your needs.
Think about it. If you wanted to buy something (gold) and you wanted to buy it cheaper how would you go about it? Or better yet, if you wanted to get out of something ( the dollar) and wanted to do it gracefully and not it a bargain basement price how would you do it? You would come out and say that the dollar has bottomed and gold was too high. Or exactly what the China Investment Corp just realeased. It's rather shallow and transparent . No news here. Jawboning and grandstanding par excellence. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
but yet they feed on it
till the end i guess if your not looking for it
so be it
They sound as if the loans to keep them from failing are insignificant.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
interesting that they mentioned ski resorts (tourism) as a positive condition for two districts.
okay and tongue planted firmly in cheek....i drained may spa and bought spa chemicals, didn't see a blip there about home improvement.
Indirect bidders bought 29 percent of the notes, compared with an average for the past 10 auctions of 38.8 percent. President Barack Obama is depending on foreign investors to help finance the nation’s debt. Overseas investors held $3.5 trillion, or 50 percent of the U.S. public debt as of October, according to the most recent data available from the Treasury. The outstanding public debt reached $7.27 trillion in December.
Primary dealers, which are required to bid at Treasury auctions, bought 53.7 percent of the 10-year notes offered.
Texthttp://www.teapartynation.com/
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
Here's an interesting article by Peter Schiff that seems to echo my sentiments about ex-communist countries (specifically, Poland) vs. the USA...
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
Here's an interesting article by Peter Schiff that seems to echo my sentiments about ex-communist countries (specifically, Poland) vs. the USA... >>
The irony is that I'm in China having drinks with Peter Schiffs mother as I type this. Small world. Ellen says hello
We work together...........MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
Here's an interesting article by Peter Schiff that seems to echo my sentiments about ex-communist countries (specifically, Poland) vs. the USA... >>
The irony is that I'm in China having drinks with Peter Schiffs mother as I type this. Small world. Ellen says hello
We work together...........MJ >>
Cool! Tell them hi from me! For those in the know, the air really is freer in places where people have had to experience hard core communism, and the memory is still fresh in their minds.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
The Debt Bomb Facing the World
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Hello, I just noticed this on the BEP website about bill production. Why in our recessionary economy is $100 bill production going up so much? [Not sure if the columns will line up but you get the trend.]
Website cited: http://www.moneyfactory.gov/uscurrency/annualproductionfigures.html
Denomination FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009
$1 3,475,200,000 4,512,000,000 4,147,200,000 3,577,600,000 2,636,800,000
$2 N/A 230,400,000 N/A N/A N/A
$5 576,000,000 800,000,000 1,401,600,000 1,203,200,000 384,000,000
$10 512,000,000 851,200,000 83,200,000 1,094,400,000 345,600,000
$20 3,059,200,000 889,600,000 1,971,200,000 633,600,000 716,800,000
$50 345,600,000 N/A 428,800,000 N/A 371,200,000
$100 668,800,000 950,400,000 1,088,000,000 1,209,600,000 1,785,600,000
$100 don't buy what it used to, that's why. I burnt 2 last night at the store with just one cart.
<< <i>
<< <i>I think Goldsaint has hit the nail on the head, and so few Americans see America for what it is: a huge police state gone horribly socialist. Even ex-communist countries offer much more freedom than the US, but few Americans can see that, especially if they've never been anywhere else. As much as I'd like to be so (blindly?) US-centric like cohodk, reality forces me to downgrade America's prospects for at least the next 50 years at least (barring some kind of eye-opening event and complete revolution, ie about-face in thought process and actual direction of the country), in light of our having completely forgotten what it is to be American. Now if we were comparing the America of the 19th or 18th century, you've got a valid argument. That was when we were still espousing the values that made us great. But now, as Goldsaint alludes to, we're just one huge socialist state, and trending in the wrong direction. It's so sad to see.
Here's an interesting article by Peter Schiff that seems to echo my sentiments about ex-communist countries (specifically, Poland) vs. the USA... >>
As most here know my wife is from Poland. My sigline links to her hometown. I've spent considerable time in Poland the last 8 years and have seen a remarkable transformation. So remarkable, that much of Poland is now priced beyond the means of most Poles. Real estate in many areas makes the USA look cheap. There is still a lot of growth potential-A LOT, but the country needs to stabilze its growth to keep it sustainable. The mafia is still powerful there. Poland will be a staunch ally of the USA in coming decades and will be the recipient of much US aid/intervention. Its future is very bright.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So, running down the list, the banks paid back TARP. That's a +, but....
-What was the value for bank charter, to get cheap access to the Fed's funds? did they pay back this value yet? No!
-How about the payment of interest on the banks' excess reserves at the Fed. Have the banks repaid that yet? No!
-The Fed and the Treasury have purchased hundreds of billions of dollars of Agency debt, Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and related securities through Treasury purchase programs. Have the banks paid back the capital behind those purchases yet? No!
-How about the Term Auction Facility? Has the capital behind the benefits of that program been paid back? No!
-Then there is the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), has this been paid back? No!
-Do you remember the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)? Have the funds behind that been paid back? No!
-What about the PPIP? No!
-Hey, there's the Foreign Exchange Swap programs (the currency swap lines, that saved not only our banks but out banks facing counterparties who were short on dollars), has that been paid back? No!
-There's the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), have the funds behind that been paid back? No!
-Most importantly, the opportunity cost of ZIRP, which hurts those who do not speculate (or have not speculated) with near free money! How do you pay that back to grandma and her .017% CDs?
Campaign finance reform being tossed out today by the Supreme Court seems eerily similar to the repeal of Glass-Steagall back in 1999 and the lifting of the caps on Fannie and Freddie just a month ago. The bankers got their prizes and now the corporations and unions have theirs. J6P did get cash for clunkers and a mortgage rebate but both are short term and applied to a tiny fraction of the population. Those other handouts are unlimited and without a time restraint. Well, at least J6P still has $Cash4Gold. That is still unlimited and with no time restraint. Joe can turn over all the gold he desires for FRN's for as long as he's alive. Call it all even?
Reggie on JPM: just a govt-backed hedge fund
roadrunner
“Primary dealers, which are required to bid at Treasury auctions, bought 53.7 percent of the 10-year notes offered.”
So what about this?
The Fed offers to lend the big banks up to a Trillion dollars, with the requirement that if there is an auction of U.S. bills and notes, and the foreigners do not buy it all the big banks MUST!
Therefore the big banks have NO money to lend to business, because they are using all their money borrowed money from the Fed. to buy Treasuries.
Naturally they make loads of money since the borrowings from the Fed. Have a 0% interest rate.
Obama seeing this wants to TAX them to get some of that “RISK” free profit back.
Now we know why the big banks aren’t lending, and why they are making huge profits to pay their people.
Sure good trading might help, but it won’t help that much this year as it looks like the stock market has found a trading range.
This does account for why these auctions continue to sell out and why the Fed. Does not want anyone to see their books.
If the word gets out that the Fed. Is supplying interest free money to the banks so that NO Treasury auctions will fail, this game of musical chairs is over my friends.
But, I just figured out who "J6P" is!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm guessing that is a yearly dollar chart above. It looks like if it can't break out over $78.30 that it will resume it's downtrend and threaten $74.00 and then $72.00. Eventually it will go even lower. A break over $78.30 with conviction and then it will probably hit $80.00 before it resumes it's gravity test and falls from there
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
roadrunner
Interesting short by Ruth Bader Ginsburg re:The Depression
And of course, the obligitory:
Is it time for Japanese inflation? The “change in attitude by the government is significant
Bank of Japan policy makers are prepared to consider expanding an emergency-loan program for banks and increasing purchases of government debt
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold
Investors are rushing to gold, because they rightly fear far higher inflation in the next couple of years and want to hedge against both rising prices and a declining dollar with a commodity that, they claim, has a fixed supply.
Since early 2009, the price has jumped to $1,100 an ounce from $875, triple its average price between 1990 and 2004. Yet the supply of gold is far more fluid than the gold bugs admit, partly because mining companies are investing heavily to increase production.
The real threat: Prices are so high all over the world that people who once treasured their gold jewelry are now rushing to sell it. Swiss refiners are offering irresistible prices for bracelets and brooches, "cash-for-gold" stores are in Chicago malls, and suburbanites are hosting Tupperware-style parties where neighbors show up to hock their gold teeth.
When this happened in the early 1980s with silver, prices plummeted from $50 to $15 in less than a year. Look for gold to end up below $500 an ounce within two years.
Was the destruction of the dollar as rampant back then too? $500 Gold? I just don't see it with the printing presses going full throttle.
Box of 20
The author calls $1100 gold "astounding." That's 26% higher than it's peak 1980 price w/o inflation adjustments. Yet the author makes no such claims for housing which is probably 500% higher than 1980, education which is probably around 1000% higher, cars are about 500-800% higher, stocks at around 1200%, etc. Even oil is around the same price as it was in 1980 yet gold and oil are 2 of the ones most singled out....things that actually get used for something whether it be to implicitly back currency or power the world's energy machine. The author says housing is not in a bubble any longer. I'm not so sure. Isn't that one of the primary drop offs for asset inflation over the past 30 years? But one thing I'm sure of is that commodities are still playing catchup from their 1980-2002 down cycle. The author needs to recognize that high prices in one asset don't necessarily mean it's in a bubble. Gold is only responding to deteriorating currency values. It doesn't rise in price in a vacuum. When fiat currencies are stabilized so will gold. Until that occurs, gold will rise. The only true bubble is in fiat money. Food prices are multiples higher than 1980 yet I don't see the author singling those out. Not only that but the packages have been downsized to hide the price increases.
Not so sure about how fluid gold production is per the author. He must think that miners snap their fingers and can double production at will, just like when widgets are being made. Yet production has declined for 8 years now in the face of prices quadrupling. If this follows the framework of the 1970's gold boom, mining production won't peak for 5-7 years AFTER prices have crested. In other words too late to turn prices. It takes from 5-10 yrs to bring a new mine on line....assuming it ever becomes profitable. The miners were so busy playing the carry trade in the 1990's that ignored infrastructure. The bankers loved it. Miners are still recovering from that mis-step. Besides production being down this past decade, miners are spending 2X to 3X what they did before on costs. Even with gold prices much higher they have still struggled with energy costs, infrastructure failures, strikes, nationalizations, permits being pulled, currency exchange risks, etc. The net effect is many of them are still doing no better at $1100-$1200 gold than they were at $600 gold. It's not all gravy. As nations start to look to keep their own natural resources at home start watching to see efforts to take over more mines, especially in all but the safest of jurisdictions.
Mining is hard and risky work. One of the few ways for bigger companies to stay alive is to swallow up the smaller ones.
The amount of ore they have to process to get the same production has increased dramatically. They are having to mine deeper and in more remote/risky regions just to keep up. If it weren't for the scrap gold boom the past year prices would have shot up much higher. Scrap gold was the biggest "miner" in 2009...but even their output fell dramatically after the 1st quarter.
The real threat: Prices are so high all over the world that people who once treasured their gold jewelry are now rushing to sell it. Swiss refiners are offering irresistible prices for bracelets and brooches, "cash-for-gold" stores are in Chicago malls, and suburbanites are hosting Tupperware-style parties where neighbors show up to hock their gold teeth.
The scrap gold business is probably the cheapest "mining operation" out there. While spot prices are high, the cash for gold buyers pay a 30-50% pittance on average. Would these same people be flocking to gold parties if the spot price of gold were $400 and they were getting 100% of spot? That's what they're getting at $1200 spot with cash for gold. When the scrap for gold business starts to dry up that will leave a huge hole in the gold supply equation. The Central Bank sales have dried up and they are now a net drain on the system as buyers. In 2-3 years the price of gold will probably be double what it is today, not $500. The only true asset bubbles are in paper fiat and paper backed bonds. Assets you can hold and touch will always be worth something, esp. those things that have been around for 5,000 years.
roadrunner
as always wontons and sushi for thought with a vodka chaser.
the implication is that USA U$D whatever will be (always be) on top?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yep, that'll influence world gold prices. A threat? People having less gold will be a threat?
When this happened in the early 1980s with silver, prices plummeted from $50 to $15 in less than a year.
The fact that the CFTC sandbagged the Hunts by changing margin requirements in the middle of the game, and the fact that Volker raised interest rates to 20+% had nothing to do with silver's drop. Doh!!!
I suspect that we won't be looking at 20% interest rates anytime soon. Heck, the banks aren't lending now, and they're getting free money! How hard will it be to sell money when rates go up???
Where do these people come from?
I knew it would happen.
announced efforts to bring the shinkansen, Japan's bullet train, to the U.S
Bring on that Japanese inflation.
S&P Puts Negative Outlook on Japan
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm gioing to break this rule to suggest the bull is warming up. This charge may not be THE charge
but I do believe the bottom is in or will be within a couple days. I'd expect some drama soon in the
silver market.
silver market. "
Drama is good.
<< <i>"I'd expect some drama soon in the
silver market. "
Drama is good. >>
Well..."Steel Magnolias" drama or "Heat" drama?
<< <i>I don't make many short term metals calls because I don't like being wrong.
I'm gioing to break this rule to suggest the bull is warming up. This charge may not be THE charge
but I do believe the bottom is in or will be within a couple days. I'd expect some drama soon in the
silver market. >>
Is "The Nightmare on Elm Street" a drama?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I watched the Tim Giethner senate hearing today. He said that he saved the world and can't believe any one would question his actions. >>
Why doesn't he just start wearing a Superman costume? Wonder if he took that tax money he never paid and bought gold? PM's up this am after State of The Union. Not surprising.
Suspending Money Market Redemptions Is Now Legal; SEC Approves New Money Market Regulation In 4-1 Vote
Tyler Durden on 01/27/2010 11:31 -0500
Mary Schapiro
Zero Hedge discussed a month ago the disastrous prospects of what would happen if the new proposal contemplated by the SEC, which would allow the suspension of redemptions from Money Market Funds, were to pass. Well, in a nearly unanimous vote, Money Market Funds now have the ability to suspend redemptions, courtesy of the SEC’s just passed 4-1 vote. This explains the negative rate on bills: at this point, should there be another meltdown, money market investors will not, repeat not, be able to withdraw their money purely on the whim of Mary Schapiro. As the SEC noted: "We understand that suspending redemptions may impose hardships on investors who rely on their ability to redeem shares." Too bad investors’ hardships considerations ended up being completely irrelevant.
Box of 20