<< <i>Oh well......I took profit when I saw it. >>
I just sold a few raw at $315 and I think that was low. But I have 16 more being graded and the cash helped pay for the whole lot. As they say in the stock market: " Bulls make money. Bears make money. But pigs get slaughtered" . Why do I find myself oinking a lot???
<< <i>Looks like raw prices have moved into $330-339 range.
Oh well......I took profit when I saw it. Had bought off Eaby in range of $150-190 sold at $250-310. >>
This is great for flipping like a pancake but does zilch for numismatics as "collectibles" are concerned. Thanks to the Mint for another successful "round-up" and "branding". Sheering the sheeple with the help of the people. When demand is filled, the leftovers will be worth just above melt like the rest of MODERN bullion.
(somebody has to go against the grain). All these warm fuzzies are like hairballs in me troat.
<< <i> When demand is filled, the leftovers will be worth just above melt like the rest of MODERN bullion. >>
And that is a major assumption since there seems to be a demand for "modern bullion" issues in past years and the collector base continues to grow creating more demand. But you are correct in that demand creates value and that is why ANY coin is worth more than melt. If everyone decided to dump their Morgan dollars their value would crash as would any similar issue.
Last week someone paid over $10k for a $1 gaming chip from the defunct Showboat Casino in LV. Are they idiots??? Collecting and value is totally in the eyes of the collector who purchases an item.
1. There is still original inventory sitting in the bins, but returns are taking precedence and being shipped first. Which means that later, when all of the returns are recycled, more 07/08s will surface.
2. They have dispensed all 47,000 of these.
3. The 47,000 estimate given by US Mint spokesman Michael White to CW was a number "pulled out of a hat" and there are way less (or more) than the stated # extant.
4. 47,000 were minted but some were caught at the Mint/Fulfillment Center and destroyed.
Is there a way to statistically estimate the actual number extant from POP reports once submissions slow down, raw eBay sales etc.?
Regards, John
Need the following OBW rolls to complete my 46-64 Roosevelt roll set: 1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S. Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
ordered 05/09.. packing slip dated 05/13, received 05/22..
0/2
i give up..
"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.." - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
1. There is still original inventory sitting in the bins, but returns are taking precedence and being shipped first. Which means that later, when all of the returns are recycled, more 07/08s will surface.
Unlikely but I guess possible.
2. They have dispensed all 47,000 of these.
IMO this is not unlikely..........TPG numbers continue to rise. I expect 15,000+ final slabbed totals. Not unreasonable for a coin where error is obvious and not subject to faking. Consider all the raw coins sold by Gainsville, Moderncoin, Ebay etc. I suspect a low % of those raw coins were then submitted for grading. Just curious but anyone know after 13 years and many resubmissions what % of 1995-W have been slabbed??
3. The 47,000 estimate given by US Mint spokesman Michael White to CW was a number "pulled out of a hat" and there are way less (or more) than the stated # extant.
Estimate was based on production from 1 night shift. I expect this number is pretty accurate. It is not like they don't keep count of silver blanks. I bet only variable is when dies were changed out.
4. 47,000 were minted but some were caught at the Mint/Fulfillment Center and destroyed.
Now this is possible but as yet unconfirmed. I had ordered several lots of 100 and they arrived as master boxes of 100 but 4 had been removed from each box. 4 boxes with 96 to a box. Makes you wonder if they did some sampling. Each master box of 100 has a unique production code. Very possible they had a rough idea which master box code numbers were most likely to have that nights error production. IMO this is most likely.........They identified production range where many of that nights production went and they pulled those boxes. Nice theory but until confirmed by mint it is just speculation. I seriously doubt they had hourly workers in Memphis or anywhere esle pulling individual coins.
Is there a way to statistically estimate the actual number extant from POP reports once submissions slow down, raw eBay sales etc.?
TPG stats are pretty clear and they are climbing. Ebay sales are higher than they appear because when you simply type in 2007 2008 reverse and check completed auctions it will show 1000+ sales just since 5-7-08 but many of those were dutch auctions with 5-30 coins offered in single listing. I would estimate there have been 2,000-3,000+ Ebay sales for raw coins if you allow for auctions before 5-7-08. I personally sold 100+ and I am a very little fish.
For what its worth, I do not think that there are 47,000 of these on the street, remember the GW smoothies and how many showed up instantly........I realize there were more of them, but if there were 47,000 of these out, ebay would have 400 listings 24/7.......JMO
edited to add: And dealers would not be looking for them every week or so.....
Not a chance. Silver Eagles are some of the most poular modern coins to collect. With so few of these errors/variety's to go around, the demand will remain strong. These coins still have a long way to go price wise. As fewer become available prices will continue to increase and buyers will put them away for the future...creating greater demand, just like the 95w.
BST transactions Wondercoin, MCM, levinll, Zrlevin and ajaan. Been buying and selling coins on E-Bay since 2002 as Monk2580
Wait a few months...it'll drop to right around $50
And just as he was reaching into his pocket for 2 $20's and a $10, he woke up only to realize that they are inching upwards to $500 for MS69's NON FS/ES
There are approx 12,000 08/07s slabbed by PCGS and NGC combined. Over the past few days slabbed coins have represented approx. 50% of the 08/07s listed on ebay. Assuming this ratio is a representative sampling of the total number released then approx 25,000 08/07s were released.
This has held consistent over the past couple of weeks as the ratio of slabbed coins has increased.
Yikes!! I thought the 2006 Anniversary Sets were nuts in the FS 70 grades from PCGS but this 2007 Reverse saga really has some long and viscous legs!
So true, and that was with a PUBLISHED mintage, a SET mintage, a CONTROLLED mintage, an INTENDED mintage of 250,000. Even if the 47,000 holds true (which I concur with many in thinking there is NO way that many are going to make it out 'alive'), that's less than 20% of the mintage of the Reverse Proof. Long and vicious legs....perfectly put. This wont see the ups, then the downs, then the stagnation that the Reverse Proof, or the Washington Smoothie saw...this will go the way of the '95W. No need for rear view mirrors, directionals, or a reverse gear with this one. Though, I CERTAINLY think that just short of $3,000 is a BIT much, perhaps in the long run, which may be in the very near future, that price will be a bargain. How many of you (I didnt get back into the hobby until '98-'99) thought that paying 2 grand plus for the '95-W was crazy at the time? I'd take all the '95-W's I could get my hands on at $2,888.
The thing about this is that these (AE's in general, the '95-W and '08/Rev '07 specifically) are intended as bullion, but with a slight edge. It's NOT like a circulating coin...which, to me, says that even those that are HARDCORE anti-modern, might very well be collecting them...kinda like 'closet' bullion buyers. Couple those numbers with those that see it as more than just bullion, as a truly collectable coin, which there are many of, man, this could get downright scary.
sorry, i just couldn't resist.. everytime i see your avatar i think of..
"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.." - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
Thanks again Jesee for the updates! As you said the numbers are a bit skewed by the PCGS FS 70, but hold your hat....the current PCGS FS 70 on ebay with 11 some hours left in the auction is at $3000.00 fargin dollars!! When the train starts rolling on these the tracks are barley keeping up. Venomously Vicious legs now Nutz4coins!
<< <i>Wait a few months...it'll drop to right around $50 >>
I'll make you a deal. You buy all you can @$50 and I will buy all you can sell at $75. deal? >>
Yep, we've be hearing this anti-hype-mantra for the past month -- meanwhile the coin has only appreciated 14 times it's original cost -- in only 2 MONTHS -- and still showing no sign of slowing down. I've never seen a run like it -- nor have I seen so much consistent interest in a perceived "rare" modern coin (I know, it's not really rare, but...).
I'm an avid ASE fan, and obviously there are many, many more. This has been a riveting saga, and something everyone could participate in. I've stimulated interest in my family even with the weekly mint package "lottery". I'm in the opinion this will only continue upward to amazing highs and oohs and ahhhs. Thanks again Mint (and John Nanney).
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
Comments
<< <i>Oh well......I took profit when I saw it. >>
I just sold a few raw at $315 and I think that was low. But I have 16 more being graded and the cash helped pay for the whole lot. As they say in the stock market: " Bulls make money. Bears make money. But pigs get slaughtered" . Why do I find myself oinking a lot???
<< <i>Looks like raw prices have moved into $330-339 range.
Oh well......I took profit when I saw it.
Had bought off Eaby in range of $150-190 sold at $250-310. >>
This is great for flipping like a pancake but does zilch for numismatics as "collectibles" are concerned.
Thanks to the Mint for another successful "round-up" and "branding".
Sheering the sheeple with the help of the people. When demand is filled, the leftovers will be worth just above melt like the rest of MODERN bullion.
(somebody has to go against the grain).
All these warm fuzzies are like hairballs in me troat.
<< <i> When demand is filled, the leftovers will be worth just above melt like the rest of MODERN bullion. >>
And that is a major assumption since there seems to be a demand for "modern bullion" issues in past years and the collector base continues to grow creating more demand. But you are correct in that demand creates value and that is why ANY coin is worth more than melt. If everyone decided to dump their Morgan dollars their value would crash as would any similar issue.
Last week someone paid over $10k for a $1 gaming chip from the defunct Showboat Casino in LV. Are they idiots??? Collecting and value is totally in the eyes of the collector who purchases an item.
<< <i>Looks like raw prices have moved into $330-339 range.
Oh well......I took profit when I saw it.
Had bought off Eaby in range of $150-190 sold at $250-310. >>
I'll modify this to say I kept the best two examples out of every ten sold and now have a negative cost basis in 20+ out of original 100+.
I don't think of it as flipping but rather mass screening for best examples.
Two rules to follow...............
#1) Buy 10 sell 9 keep/clear 1.
#2) Keep the best.....sell the rest.
<< <i>#1) Buy 10 sell 9 keep 1. >>
I always seem to sell 1 and keep 9 especially if the 1 gets me back the cost of 10 plus.....
1. There is still original inventory sitting in the bins, but returns are taking precedence and being shipped first. Which means that later, when all of the returns are recycled, more 07/08s will surface.
2. They have dispensed all 47,000 of these.
3. The 47,000 estimate given by US Mint spokesman Michael White to CW was a number "pulled out of a hat" and there are way less (or more) than the stated # extant.
4. 47,000 were minted but some were caught at the Mint/Fulfillment Center and destroyed.
Is there a way to statistically estimate the actual number extant from POP reports once submissions slow down, raw eBay sales etc.?
Regards, John
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
If you just guess at the estimate it's not scientific
You have to guess at the % graded, then you can say your guess is a statistically estimate.
I'm studying to be a government economist.
My last four boxes of 10 each, shipped 5-8-08, packed 5-6-08~1pm, received today............finally.
All 08/08.
0/2
i give up..
- John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
Puti t in the book the........... Mintage is no where near 47,000..this 2008/07 will a real rarity
If you just guess at the estimate it's not scientific
You have to guess at the % graded, then you can say your guess is a statistically estimate.>>
<<I'm studying to be a government economist.>>
Actually I wanted to try out my new avatar... is it beer thirty yet?
Today on the 'bay raws have ranged $330-$355.
That is all...
Ren
Number of auctions are falling off.
About 3-4 days ago when they were at the peak, most were raw.
Just remember the First Spouse Auctions, this is no way close to those 40K Coins.
<< <i>No way near 47K, no way.
Number of auctions are falling off.
About 3-4 days ago when they were at the peak, most were raw.
Just remember the First Spouse Auctions, this is no way close to those 40K Coins. >>
I agree.
Have a good one!!!
Also, $435 for an MS69 FS PCGS
halfnut X3, Dabigkahuna, Kaelasdad, LALASD4, harvey85422458,
fivecents, Coll3ctor, cucamongacoin, Becoka
<< <i>Just wondering:
1. There is still original inventory sitting in the bins, but returns are taking precedence and being shipped first. Which means that later, when all of the returns are recycled, more 07/08s will surface.
Unlikely but I guess possible.
2. They have dispensed all 47,000 of these.
IMO this is not unlikely..........TPG numbers continue to rise. I expect 15,000+ final slabbed totals. Not unreasonable for a coin where error is obvious and not subject to faking. Consider all the raw coins sold by Gainsville, Moderncoin, Ebay etc. I suspect a low % of those raw coins were then submitted for grading. Just curious but anyone know after 13 years and many resubmissions what % of 1995-W have been slabbed??
3. The 47,000 estimate given by US Mint spokesman Michael White to CW was a number "pulled out of a hat" and there are way less (or more) than the stated # extant.
Estimate was based on production from 1 night shift. I expect this number is pretty accurate. It is not like they don't keep count of silver blanks. I bet only variable is when dies were changed out.
4. 47,000 were minted but some were caught at the Mint/Fulfillment Center and destroyed.
Now this is possible but as yet unconfirmed. I had ordered several lots of 100 and they arrived as master boxes of 100 but 4 had been removed from each box. 4 boxes with 96 to a box. Makes you wonder if they did some sampling. Each master box of 100 has a unique production code. Very possible they had a rough idea which master box code numbers were most likely to have that nights error production.
IMO this is most likely.........They identified production range where many of that nights production went and they pulled those boxes. Nice theory but until confirmed by mint it is just speculation. I seriously doubt they had hourly workers in Memphis or anywhere esle pulling individual coins.
Is there a way to statistically estimate the actual number extant from POP reports once submissions slow down, raw eBay sales etc.?
TPG stats are pretty clear and they are climbing. Ebay sales are higher than they appear because when you simply type in 2007 2008 reverse and check completed auctions it will show 1000+ sales just since 5-7-08 but many of those were dutch auctions with 5-30 coins offered in single listing. I would estimate there have been 2,000-3,000+ Ebay sales for raw coins if you allow for auctions before 5-7-08.
I personally sold 100+ and I am a very little fish.
Regards, John >>
<< <i>I would estimate there have been 2,000-3,000+ Ebay sales for raw coins if you allow for auctions before 5-7-08 >>
How many of these coins have been sold more than once on the Bay. Sold raw, sold again raw, sold graded, sold again graded .... All the same coin
edited to add: And dealers would not be looking for them every week or so.....
With maybe as much as twice the mintage, snoothies are still selling @ 85.00 +.............................
<< <i>Wait a few months...it'll drop to right around $50 >>
What will drop to $50?
<< <i>I don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but the new record for an MS70 FS PCGS is now $2888.88 by another board member
Also, $435 for an MS69 FS PCGS >>
Yikes!!
I thought the 2006 Anniversary Sets were nuts in the FS 70 grades from PCGS but this 2007 Reverse saga really has some long and viscous legs!
Miles
And just as he was reaching into his pocket for 2 $20's and a $10, he woke up only to realize that they are inching upwards to $500 for MS69's NON FS/ES
<< <i>This is better than cable television. It's alive ! So how many are for sale on ebay right now ? >>
The only thing that is missing is the coin vault Tv show
This has held consistent over the past couple of weeks as the ratio of slabbed coins has increased.
So true, and that was with a PUBLISHED mintage, a SET mintage, a CONTROLLED mintage, an INTENDED mintage of 250,000. Even if the 47,000 holds true (which I concur with many in thinking there is NO way that many are going to make it out 'alive'), that's less than 20% of the mintage of the Reverse Proof. Long and vicious legs....perfectly put. This wont see the ups, then the downs, then the stagnation that the Reverse Proof, or the Washington Smoothie saw...this will go the way of the '95W. No need for rear view mirrors, directionals, or a reverse gear with this one. Though, I CERTAINLY think that just short of $3,000 is a BIT much, perhaps in the long run, which may be in the very near future, that price will be a bargain. How many of you (I didnt get back into the hobby until '98-'99) thought that paying 2 grand plus for the '95-W was crazy at the time? I'd take all the '95-W's I could get my hands on at $2,888.
The thing about this is that these (AE's in general, the '95-W and '08/Rev '07 specifically) are intended as bullion, but with a slight edge. It's NOT like a circulating coin...which, to me, says that even those that are HARDCORE anti-modern, might very well be collecting them...kinda like 'closet' bullion buyers. Couple those numbers with those that see it as more than just bullion, as a truly collectable coin, which there are many of, man, this could get downright scary.
<< <i>
<< <i>I would estimate there have been 2,000-3,000+ Ebay sales for raw coins if you allow for auctions before 5-7-08 >>
How many of these coins have been sold more than once on the Bay. Sold raw, sold again raw, sold graded, sold again graded .... All the same coin >>
I bought 4 raw on eBay and had the 2 best graded and sold the other 2 raw and the other 2 are running this week.
I can account for 4 that were sold twice.
Joe
<< <i> man, this could get downright scary. >>
sorry, i just couldn't resist.. everytime i see your avatar i think of..
- John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
I purchased an NGC MS70 ER with the shiney reverse from a co-worker today for $550. I told him to buy them at $350 so he was happy. And so am I
As you said the numbers are a bit skewed by the PCGS FS 70, but hold your hat....the current PCGS FS 70 on ebay with 11 some hours left in the auction is at $3000.00 fargin dollars!!
When the train starts rolling on these the tracks are barley keeping up. Venomously Vicious legs now Nutz4coins!
Miles
not posts.
Auction price on ebay with 11+ hours to go......
<< <i>3000
not posts.
Auction price on ebay with 11+ hours to go...... >>
So now the Posts can't keep up with the Price? Start mega-posting or stop biding?
Miles
WOW!WOW!WOW!
<< <i>Wait a few months...it'll drop to right around $50 >>
I'll make you a deal. You buy all you can @$50 and I will buy all you can sell at $75. deal?
<< <i>
<< <i>Wait a few months...it'll drop to right around $50 >>
I'll make you a deal. You buy all you can @$50 and I will buy all you can sell at $75. deal? >>
Yep, we've be hearing this anti-hype-mantra for the past month -- meanwhile the coin has only appreciated 14 times it's original cost -- in only 2 MONTHS -- and still showing no sign of slowing down. I've never seen a run like it -- nor have I seen so much consistent interest in a perceived "rare" modern coin (I know, it's not really rare, but...).
I'm an avid ASE fan, and obviously there are many, many more. This has been a riveting saga, and something everyone could participate in. I've stimulated interest in my family even with the weekly mint package "lottery". I'm in the opinion this will only continue upward to amazing highs and oohs and ahhhs. Thanks again Mint (and John Nanney).
2400