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Thanks to John Nanney's Discovery, 2008 ASE's with 2007 reverse going through the roof

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  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,207 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>2300 >>


    Exhibit A

    image

    HE>I

  • hrlaserhrlaser Posts: 1,133 ✭✭


    << <i>

    Do you suppose the Fulfillment Center simply sticks a shipping label on what gets returned to them without inspecting them and then just sends it out again?

    Or

    could it be that the way they pack them allows for the boxes to come open?

    I've stated before that my original shipment had opened SAE boxes in it way before the announcement of the 08/07 coins so just assuming that when you receive a box that has opened containers in it is a "return" may not be an entirely correct assumption. >>



    if your "Do you suppose".. question was true, then some folks should be getting boxes with a peanut butter sandwich in them.. i'd find it really hard to believe that the crew in Memphis doesn't open returns and verify what someone says they returned was really in the box.. but that they just re-label it and send it out to someone else.. i mean, have you ever placed an order and gotten what looks like a box that someone shipped back to them, and they just relabelled it and sent it out to you?.. it SHOULD be horribly obvious.. with mutiple labels pasted on top of each other, remnants of peeled-off Postage labels.. and so on.. i never have, and i've been ordering from the Mint for eons.. now if what's INSIDE the box i get is someone else's returned goods, that's a different matter..

    as far as sloppily-packed shipments with a half-inflated air bag, opened boxes, coins out of capsules, using a box 10x the size of what's inside it.. you're just seeing the results of under-paid, over-worked warehouse guys who simply don't give a flying image about what they're doing.. having spent 12 years in the freight business, and watching warehouse workers in action.. believe me, there are plenty of them who could care less, as long as the boss isn't watching..

    Happy 100nd Birthday, Jimmy Stewart..
    "I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.."
    - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Some have been asking about order dates/pack dates of successful finds

    From my analysis (several groups of buyers polled, 5,000 plus coins (conservative) searched by those groups)

    Invoice and Pack Dates between 4/8 and 5/4 have had successful finds, significant finds in the Invoice and Pack Dates of 4/20 to 4/30 date range.

    Everything after 4/30 Invoice and Pack Dates have had insignificant finds, if any

    Invoice and Pack Dates from 5/4 forward have had no finds, the later the timing gets, the less likely the finds.

    These ARE NOT order placement dates, these are Invoice and Pack Dates

    Hence my comment, it's over.

    The secondary market is beginning to show this trend already with higher prices.

    UPDATE: Orders received through 5/18 have not had ANY 07 reverses......

    THE PARTY IS OVER FOR USM SOURCED COINS.......LET THE SECONDARY MARKET PARTY BEGIN

  • SUMORADASUMORADA Posts: 4,797
    19Lyds

    The ones that I have been getting that I know are returns have been pushed out from the back , the blue plastic gets a wrinkle or indentation.........
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    THE PARTY IS OVER FOR USM SOURCED COINS.......LET THE SECONDARY MARKET PARTY BEGIN >>



    I was at both of the U.S. Mint counters in D.C., both at the Mint and at the kiosk at Union Station yesterday. I want through around 10 coins in the Mint counter with no '07 Revs. I even had them pull the one out of the display case thinking that it may have been there for a while but no luck.

    None at Union Station eigher. In fact, all of the ones at the Mint sales counter at Union Station were in the packaging reverse up. The Mint employee informed me that they had all been gone through with a total of 18 found by a customer two weeks ago.

    What a bummer! But I figured it was worth a try!!
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • SaamSaam Posts: 513 ✭✭✭
    Got my last order of four today and there were none with the 2007 reverse image

    No more orders of these for me!
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,065 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    Do you suppose the Fulfillment Center simply sticks a shipping label on what gets returned to them without inspecting them and then just sends it out again?

    Or

    could it be that the way they pack them allows for the boxes to come open?

    I've stated before that my original shipment had opened SAE boxes in it way before the announcement of the 08/07 coins so just assuming that when you receive a box that has opened containers in it is a "return" may not be an entirely correct assumption. >>



    if your "Do you suppose".. question was true, then some folks should be getting boxes with a peanut butter sandwich in them.. i'd find it really hard to believe that the crew in Memphis doesn't open returns and verify what someone says they returned was really in the box.. but that they just re-label it and send it out to someone else.. i mean, have you ever placed an order and gotten what looks like a box that someone shipped back to them, and they just relabelled it and sent it out to you?.. it SHOULD be horribly obvious.. with mutiple labels pasted on top of each other, remnants of peeled-off Postage labels.. and so on.. i never have, and i've been ordering from the Mint for eons.. now if what's INSIDE the box i get is someone else's returned goods, that's a different matter..

    as far as sloppily-packed shipments with a half-inflated air bag, opened boxes, coins out of capsules, using a box 10x the size of what's inside it.. you're just seeing the results of under-paid, over-worked warehouse guys who simply don't give a flying image about what they're doing.. having spent 12 years in the freight business, and watching warehouse workers in action.. believe me, there are plenty of them who could care less, as long as the boss isn't watching..

    Happy 100nd Birthday, Jimmy Stewart.. >>



    But the grunts aren't the ones who decide what size box to use for how many coins, etc. Some high dollar bigwig prolly decides that. The grunt gets blamed for shoddy work and a comparable attitude while the boss gets a bonus for saving $$. Sorta like where I work where they save all this money buying stuff cheap from China, but conveniently fail to add in the cost of dealing with the junk and the problems.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • 08HALA2008HALA20 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭
    7over8


    You are right!

    I have been watching the NGC'c since I have 2 multiholders 69 and 70 pair.

    The NGC 70's are crazy. They were just $625-650 a few days ago and now they are all over $700 with some crazy $850 -1000 ended auctions.

    Even the raw coins are now almost always over $300-325.

    Now is the time to buy if you don't have any.

    The auction search I use shows 125 auctions down from 150 2 days ago and 200 from 5 days ago.

    One of these days they will jump 50% and we all will say I shouild have bought some more @ $300.

    Joe
  • bestdaybestday Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>7over8


    You are right!

    I have been watching the NGC'c since I have 2 multiholders 69 and 70 pair.

    The NGC 70's are crazy. They were just $625-650 a few days ago and now they are all over $700 with some crazy $850 -1000 ended auctions.

    Even the raw coins are now almost always over $300-325.

    Now is the time to buy if you don't have any.

    The auction search I use shows 125 auctions down from 150 2 days ago and 200 from 5 days ago.

    One of these days they will jump 50% and we all will say I shouild have bought some more @ $300.

    Joe >>



    Need to jump on the train if you are looking to buy ....bids now over 800.00 and counting for the NGC Ms-70s
  • jessewvujessewvu Posts: 5,065 ✭✭✭✭✭
    2300 + image

    Ok Folks, here is the latest dump!

    Below you will find 2 week history charts for ALL hits on:

    "2007 reverse 2008"
    "2007 reverse 2008" (the second chart of this search is for a 1 month period)
    "2007 reverse 2008 NGC"
    "2007 reverse 2008 PCGS"
    "2007 reverse 2008 NGC MS69"
    "2007 reverse 2008 PCGS MS69"
    "2007 reverse 2008 NGC MS70"
    "2007 reverse 2008 PCGS MS70"
    "2007 reverse 2008 NGC MS69"
    "2007 reverse 2008 -PCGS -NGC"

    What that SHOULD give us, I know there are outliers, are the trends for all coins sold, just NGC graded coins (69 and 70), just PCGS graded coins (69 and 70), and raw.

    As I have stated before, this dump DOES NOT include auctions ending past 9:00 EST, so if there are a large number of auctions ending tonight, the #'s are going to be different. To get the most accurate trends, do not include today.

    Here goes!

    If not all the pics show up, right click on the blank picture and then click SHOW PICTURE.

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************

    Past 2 weeks, graded and raw

    image

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************

    Past 1 month, graded and raw

    image

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************

    All NGC graded coins

    image

    image

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************


    All PCGS graded coins

    image

    image

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************


    All raw coins

    image

    image

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************


    NGC MS69

    image

    image

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************


    PCGS MS69

    image

    image

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************


    NCG MS70

    image

    image

    ****************************************************************************************
    ****************************************************************************************


    PCGS MS70

    image

    image
  • SUMORADASUMORADA Posts: 4,797

    jessewvu...........thank you,image
  • Jessewvu,
    Impressive jobimage Just curious: what statistics package did you use to compile and display the data? Your extra credit assignment is to utilize multivariate regression to model the prices of 2008/Reverse of 2007's and ASE's in generalimage Wouldn't it be interesting to see which predictor variables have the greatest impact upon the response value? I suppose some factors such as eye appeal would be difficult to parameterize because of their qualitative nature. Anyhoo, nice to see someone incorporating statistics into the study of coins! Pssst....Don't tell anyone that I actually like mathimage
  • mcmximcmxi Posts: 890
    Thanks a bunch for the info. But I have to ask what is up with the average shipping costs.
    If I was half as smart as I am dumb Iwould be a genious
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,324 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks Jesse!
    Good to see that trend line nothing but up.

    Miles
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • At prices between $850-$900 for one NGC MS70 ASE 2008 w/2007 reverse do you think this will still rise in terms of value or has it reached a price peak? image
  • call back when that number doubles later this year.


  • << <i>call back when that number doubles later this year. >>

    image
  • 19Lyds19Lyds Posts: 26,490 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>19Lyds

    The ones that I have been getting that I know are returns have been pushed out from the back , the blue plastic gets a wrinkle or indentation......... >>



    I agree with this but the common statement made here is that the boxes were open indicating that it must have been a return. The mint repackages everything. A bit messy at times but nobody gets someone's returned items without thwem having been repackaged so unless the plastic is crumpled, it was just poor packaging.
    I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.



    The name is LEE!
  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Some have been asking about order dates/pack dates of successful finds

    From my analysis (several groups of buyers polled, 5,000 plus coins (conservative) searched by those groups)

    Invoice and Pack Dates between 4/8 and 5/4 have had successful finds, significant finds in the Invoice and Pack Dates of 4/20 to 4/30 date range.

    Everything after 4/30 Invoice and Pack Dates have had insignificant finds, if any

    Invoice and Pack Dates from 5/4 forward have had no finds, the later the timing gets, the less likely the finds.

    These ARE NOT order placement dates, these are Invoice and Pack Dates

    Hence my comment, it's over.

    The secondary market is beginning to show this trend already with higher prices.

    UPDATE: Orders received through 5/18 have not had ANY 07 reverses......

    THE PARTY IS OVER FOR USM SOURCED COINS.......LET THE SECONDARY MARKET PARTY BEGIN >>




    7over8: I have to AGREE. I have seen a couple reports of findings of 5/5, 5/6, and only ONE on 5/7 (order dates). I am rather surprised that there weren't a few more stragglers found and reported from other early May orders -- but NOT. I have 3 small orders from this period still enroute that I'll report on, but it sure sounds like the well is dry. An upward movement of raw coins was demonstrated today already.
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
  • Ordered 8 on the 9th, shipped on the 14th, arrived on the 20th. 0/8...all had the '08 reverse. Also, all 8 were loose....literally, the capsules were not snapped together, the 'felt' plastic was bent...these were a mess. I have to believe there are NO more coming from the mint. They are quite obviously going through/have gone through each and every one. The manhandling of the packaging and the carelessness in which they were packed tells me that these are NOT returns and they had to get as many of the rev '07's out of the pipeline 'chop-chop'. Those capsules sit tight inside those real fake blue felt holders, and we all know it, and to get them out in a hurry, they are gonna bend the plastic. Check underneath for any creases/bends/crinkles..thats what I found on all 8 I got today. The numbers, at least as far as what forum members have ordered, show that they really havent shipped any out in just about 3 solid weeks now. As the legendary Donnie Shulzhoffer, of Flin Flon, Manitoba said, "I hate to say it. They're done like dinner.".
  • jsfjsf Posts: 1,889
    122 auctions
    -69 39/122 31.9%
    -70 24/122 19.7
    Other 59/122 48.4
  • i got back from florida yesterday, i was gone for 2 of the longest weeks i ever had. i went to the post office and picked up my mint orders.

    order # 288507xx
    placed may 1
    shipped may 8
    invoice printed may 6, 10.12am
    0/10

    **order 288512xx**
    placed may 2
    shipped may 8
    invoice printed may 6, 10:12 am
    **10/10**

    order #288512xx
    placed may 2
    shipped may 10
    invoice printed may 8, 11:37
    0/10

    i got lucky on one order, very happpy!!
  • "**order 288512xx**
    placed may 2
    shipped may 8
    invoice printed may 6, 10:12 am
    **10/10**'

    Freakin' YAHTZEE!!!!!!! Nice score...quite a few thousand dollars worth of silver there


  • << <i>"**order 288512xx**
    placed may 2
    shipped may 8
    invoice printed may 6, 10:12 am
    **10/10**'

    Freakin' YAHTZEE!!!!!!! Nice score...quite a few thousand dollars worth of silver there >>



    thank you, can't believe this happen to me, and a BIG BIG thank you to john nanney's discovery and everyone here. thank you!!!
  • pitbosspitboss Posts: 8,643 ✭✭✭
    Did you notice that there are only 10 PCGS coins listed onthe bay and only one of them was a 70?
  • TomohawkTomohawk Posts: 667 ✭✭
    Hi, Everyone.

    I just received an order of 4...all 08s (order #28957xxx, placed 5/14, shipped 5/16). BUT, these are freakin' beautiful!! I'm not a professional grader (and I wish I could play one on TV), but I'm thinking these would be darn close to MS70. I've never submitted to TGPs before...should I do so now, or go through a local dealer?

    I do have 3 07 reverses (order #28850xxx, placed May 1, shipped May 8, 3/3), but one has an obvious flaw (might make MS69, but I'm worried it will be MS68 or worse). The other two look pretty flawless, except for odd, um, graininess (words escape me) on the fields of both obv/rev when held at an angle to a light source. Anyone think they're worth submitting, as well?

    (And I can hear the "pictures please!" calls...I'll try to get them up tonight).
    ASE Addict...but oh so poor!
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    As above indicates, last successful orders finding 07 reverses were packed no later than 5/6.

    That seems to be the date furthest out at this time, nothing later.
  • jessewvujessewvu Posts: 5,065 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Jessewvu,
    Impressive jobimage Just curious: what statistics package did you use to compile and display the data? Your extra credit assignment is to utilize multivariate regression to model the prices of 2008/Reverse of 2007's and ASE's in generalimage Wouldn't it be interesting to see which predictor variables have the greatest impact upon the response value? I suppose some factors such as eye appeal would be difficult to parameterize because of their qualitative nature. Anyhoo, nice to see someone incorporating statistics into the study of coins! Pssst....Don't tell anyone that I actually like mathimage >>



    Uh, yes?

    I use a paid for market tool provided by eBay which is why I can go back as far as 2 months (although these have not been on sale for 2 months yet). I am sure there are variables that will impact prices that we could never capture. Such as feedback, pictures, eye appeal, counrty of origin for seller, listing/wording appeal, shill bidding, stock market losses/gains, ect.

    I have no idea what's up with the average shipping costs. I looked for the auction that had a high cost but could not find it.
  • ebizgobroebizgobro Posts: 595 ✭✭✭
    Jesse

    Many thanks again for sharing the cost and sales analyses of the 2008 reverse of 07 Silver Eagles. I find them very informative and give some insights into the market.

    As your graphs indicate, the sales of PCGS graded items are lower than NGC graded items. I would attribute this to the fact that NGC recognized the difference earlier than PCGS and therefore has graded multiple times more coins than PCGS.

    I went to a local dealer who had several 08 rev 07 coins for sale in a raw format. I examined them and noticed some distracting contact marks and asked the dealer about them. He said that he had sent the better coins to the TPG services and is selling the other coins in raw format.
  • CasmanCasman Posts: 3,935 ✭✭
    Ok, last 3 orders of 10..............














    0/30 but.......


    biggest score of all,.......... 7lbs 6 oz, born Saturday morning, Olivia Grace, a week early and my wife was yelling at me friday night to get off the forum cause she was having contractions and I remember my daughter saying really, you mean like when did becomes didn't? I'm sleepy but very happy to be a new daddy again...image
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    Congratulations. Best score of all no doubt.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • Yeap that present is worth a mighty penny..
    I had three..
    Dare To Dream
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Congrats, Casman.........
  • Two different sellers just listed their PCGS MS70 coins with a "Buy It Now" price of $4500. image
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    with 10 day auctions they have nothing to lose, i think
    one is an OBO
  • pitbosspitboss Posts: 8,643 ✭✭✭
    I think I will just keep my 70 and see what happens. I wish the 69's would increase like that.
  • VincennesVincennes Posts: 56 ✭✭
    Just got 15 of these back from NGC. 9- MS70, 6-MS69
  • TomohawkTomohawk Posts: 667 ✭✭
    Congrats, Casman!!! I had a friend that was told at their ultrasound to prepare for a girl...and they receive a boy! Does that count as a reverse (to keep this post on topic)?

    Anyway, I'm expecting my second in less than a month as well...here's to new daddyhood!
    ASE Addict...but oh so poor!


  • << <i>Just got 15 of these back from NGC. 9- MS70, 6-MS69 >>



    Nice,,,,, I just dropped off a package of 16 headed to Florida for grading. We'll see if I do as well image
  • mach19mach19 Posts: 4,002 ✭✭


    << <i>Ok, last 3 orders of 10..............














    0/30 but.......


    biggest score of all,.......... 7lbs 6 oz, born Saturday morning, Olivia Grace, a week early and my wife was yelling at me friday night to get off the forum cause she was having contractions and I remember my daughter saying really, you mean like when did becomes didn't? I'm sleepy but very happy to be a new daddy again...image >>





    Congradulations image

    Have a good one!!! & get some sleep image
    TIN SOLDIERS & NIXON COMING image


  • << <i>Just got 15 of these back from NGC. 9- MS70, 6-MS69 >>




    That's a great submission!!
    I just sent in 13 to PCGS... I hope I get at least one 70, 2 would be great!! We'll see....
  • Casman...congrats! Its always a special thing when a child is born, whether its your first, or 10th (just guessing on 10, I had 2, and I can imagine still at #6, but...lol)....seriously, congrats! Happy and healthy! Now, didnt I read somewhere that instead of handing out cigars, you were going to ship forum members an '08 Rev '07 ASE? Should I PM you my mailing address? LOL Congrats again, and health and happiness for the newborn. Oh, PM me her weight and length. Just a thing I have about playing newborns numbers in the daily lottery.....thats if you dont mind. 1/3 of any winnings goes back to the newborn for a college fund. And though I havent had the luxury of paying off many times, the few times I did, it was a nice start.
  • SaamSaam Posts: 513 ✭✭✭


    << <i>As above indicates, last successful orders finding 07 reverses were packed no later than 5/6.

    That seems to be the date furthest out at this time, nothing later. >>



    Not true. Information I have compiled from this thread show out of fourteen orders shipped since 05/06 there have been a total of 59 coins found with the '07 reverse. There has also been three orders made since 05/06 in which nine of the coins were found.
  • 0/4 I guess it really is over!!! Anybody want to trade one for a PCGS 69 06' Reverse Proof?
  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,447 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm keeping my box of 20 with the 08 reverse.

    With silver one the run maybe these were a good buy afterall.
    World coins FSHO Hundreds of successful BST transactions U.S. coins FSHO
  • I was 0/4 with an order I placed on 5/13
  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The latest:

    0/5: ord 5/5, packed 5/6

    0/5: ord 5/6, packed 5/6 [all packaged well]

    Hoping for a straggler or two from the last of the fertile dates. One more shipment yet due...
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
  • jsfjsf Posts: 1,889
    124 auctions
    -69 36/124 29.0%
    -70 25/124 20.2
    Other 63/124 50.8
  • 2manycoins2fewfunds2manycoins2fewfunds Posts: 3,036 ✭✭✭
    Looks like raw prices have moved into $330-339 range.

    Oh well......I took profit when I saw it.
    Had bought off Eaby in range of $150-190 sold at $250-310.

  • PipestonePetePipestonePete Posts: 1,935 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just in case you missed it, yesterday ModernCoinMart posted a BUY offer of $325 each in BST.

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