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  • I think Eric is working somewhere that forbids him from commenting here!
    Wondercoin has Eric written anything lately. I have his first book.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Only my take, but i don't think he would be buying, he would be waiting.
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,905 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have not seen any new writings from Eric. Not to say that there are none.

    Wondercoin.
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,349 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: HalfStrike
    Only my take, but i don't think he would be buying, he would be waiting.


    Possibly. Maybe for the Gold Mercury! Time and mintage will tell...
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Based on the initial reports, it seems that the 2016 Proof AGEs and 2016 Proof Gold Buffs are doing well while the 2016 Gold Spouses and the 2016 Gold Commems have had a bit less than impressive starts.

    My thought is that the 2016 Gold Centennials will suck the remaining oxygen out of the room and that we may see some even lower mintages in the area of 2016 gold coins. This doesn't necessarily mean that the lower mintages will translate into an actionable profit strategy, but it will be interesting to track.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm holding off any mint gold purchases. I see gold dropping in the short term because of a dollar recovery. (gold currently at $1222.)

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not for everybody, but with platinum at $957 and gold at $1,222 it might not be a bad move to sell a little gold to buy a little platinum. 1.00 to 1.28 ratio - you don't see that very often.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Always a treat to see this thread pop up with the regulars commenting. Good to hear from you all!!

    I also think that eric would have the 2016 plat proof clearly on the radar. It will be very interesting to see what mintages are announced for that one.

    I bought my annual gold buff in 70 like I always do but am saving my coin $ for the 2016 Gold Centennials.

    Sure would be fun to have eric back on the thread. The early days of this thread were some of the best times that I've had in numismatics.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I also think that eric would have the 2016 plat proof clearly on the radar.

    The 2016 Proof Plat is a very nice design. I almost don't even care what the mintage is.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: jmski52
    It's not for everybody, but with platinum at $957 and gold at $1,222 it might not be a bad move to sell a little gold to buy a little platinum. 1.00 to 1.28 ratio - you don't see that very often.


    That would mean the economy still sux, or, at least the auto industry. I remember an old adage to buy platinum when it's below gold(?) I dunno, maybe I made that up...
  • ronsrons Posts: 338 ✭✭
    Been away for quite some time but wanted to check here to see if there is even a pulse for the 2016 centennials. The "official" picture of the dime showed no full split bands which is disappointing. Do you believe that is an accurate portrayal or an artists oversight. Sadly, it would be a deal breaker for me. I guess with these coins being gold instead of silver the frenzy of the 011 Silver Eagles will not be repeated. Any thoughts or conjectures about this triumvirate of releases this year? Looking forward to thoughts, plots, and conjecturesimage
    "When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    There are a few threads on this already here.
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • ronsrons Posts: 338 ✭✭
    True, but this used to be the "go to" thread for this kind of stuff. I read them but didn't see much information/excitement. image
    "When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
  • youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Raufus
    Always a treat to see this thread pop up with the regulars commenting. Good to hear from you all!!

    I bought my annual gold buff in 70 like I always do but am saving my coin $ for the 2016 Gold Centennials.

    Sure would be fun to have eric back on the thread. The early days of this thread were some of the best times that I've had in numismatics.


    So totally agree. Great to know all of you still lurk on this thread - one of the best, most intuitive ever. Appreciate diverse opinions and miss having Eric's knowledge here as it was extremely valuable.

    Thinking he is still able to follow the thread, however, may not be able to comment by virtue of contracts.

    Regarding the gold centennials, the dime sell-out may be a flippers dream. It is a coveted design. Long term may not hold its current value due to its high mintage of 125,000 providing the Mint sold 125,000.

    Pertaining to the dime's successors, i.e. the standing liberty quarter and walking liberty half where mintages are yet a mystery. Though we consider mintages key, sales will play a role in whether or not those offerings may be worthwhile.

    Quarter may sell well, half offering around Christmas may not sell well despite mintage.

    Opinions are welcome. Wish someone could be Eric's voice here.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fast forward to 2021...you have the 2016 Merc, SLQ, and Walker, plus the 2009 UHR and 2014 Kennedy. What's missing? A gold 2021 High Relief Peace dollar.
  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wow, I second that, and in an enhanced HR version too!
    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: renman95
    Fast forward to 2021...you have the 2016 Merc, SLQ, and Walker, plus the 2009 UHR and 2014 Kennedy. What's missing? A gold 2021 High Relief Peace dollar.

    WWED?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Eric speaks!! I sure wish that he'd come back to the forum....
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,286 ✭✭✭✭✭
    On to the next release.
  • kiyotekiyote Posts: 5,573 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Grace Coolidge sold out with a mintage of 1,949.
    "I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wish the release date for the 0.5 oz Liberty Gold would b announced.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Haven't been following spouses. Is Eleanor Inc still looking to b series low mintage key?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • kiyotekiyote Posts: 5,573 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Eleanor is still key with the unc mintage final at 1,886.
    "I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: kiyote
    Eleanor is still key with the unc mintage final at 1,886.


    Thanks!

    Anything looking like it will come in lower?

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There are 3 unc. Florence Hardings and 9 unc. Lou Hoovers remaining on sale at the Mint @ $845 apiece. Final mintage for each looks to be about 1940.

    Don't everyone jump in at once! image

    (Actually there are a few slightly cheaper ones on eBay.)

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I saw that, I was told by an expert in Moderns that these coins raw at least are worth melt no matter what the mintage... These coins meaning Harding Unc and Hoover Unc..... So the mints price is high as always..
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was told by an expert in Moderns that these coins raw at least are worth melt no matter what the mintage



    It took an expert to say that?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, it did.
  • youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭

    Sad this once very popular thread went into the toilet. If anyone can pm me updated info on reaching Eric I would appreciate it. Last e-mail & phone not in order any longer.

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My all time favorite thread. How I miss it's heyday - and Eric's insights. Hope u can get him back.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭

    Been around a while Raufus. Nice to hear. Hoping your holiday season was the best ever!

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @younique said:
    Been around a while Raufus. Nice to hear. Hoping your holiday season was the best ever!

    Thanks so much younique - how time flies.
    Hoping yours was as well.
    Happy New Year

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭

    And no Raufus, not first strike 70's, just 70's. Just noticed that!

  • GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭

    @Raufus said:
    My all time favorite thread. How I miss it's heyday - and Eric's insights. Hope u can get him back.

    This is also my favorite thread on the forum. My take on what happened, though, is that the First Spouses, the recessions, flipper, and other factors blew all of Eric's carefully crafted theories to smithereens. Not his fault. He was writing in one world where all of that made sense. We live in a different world with fewer real collectors and different priorities, and so the models just don't work anymore. I have his book, too, and consider it a valuable part of my library. I just think its hard to model value based on mintages and series collecting in these times--and probably always was. My guess is that great design WITH low mintages will drive moderns' values going into the future more than series collecting, and that's probably as it should be. For that reason, low-mintage issues like the Spouses and Generals' commems may never do much of anything. OTOH, the UHR, Walker, Buffs, and selected commems (Including, IMO, the Park Service coin) may become/remain collector favorites. And the plats? Well, they've been disappointing performers and I'm guessing they'll stay that way despite terrific design. People want an investment backstop to their purchases, too, and platinum is just iffier in that regard.
    Oh, and I'm probably wrong about everything.

    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Very well put, and I second all of it but the last declaimer.

    I think this might be a reflection of at least segments of the market - that is declining interest/monies/new collectors. I have been amused at the protestations of how much YN interest there is. I have a young son, and despite my best efforts to light an interest in him, PlayStation and WiiU reign supreme. His friends and schoolmates are nearly exactly of the same bent. When I go to regional coin shows, even larger, I see but a few kids that seem mostly to have been dragged in by their collector parents (about 95% dads). I find it interesting that to refute this, posters trot out unusual anecdotal events where there are actual YN events or experiences related.

    My point is that there are declining interests with inverse pyramidal demographics - sim to GM's dilemma with Buick buyers. In other words an aging collector base. Competing interests and the very broad culture itself are diminishing collector ranks and interests.

    So, getting depressed? No, just enjoying coins for what they are and keeping them in perspective as a COLLECTOR.

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭

    Forgot to add that I think the 5-oz pucks may have a very bright future. These big ole hunks of silver are just plain fun. Sure, some of the designs stink, but many are really beautiful and especially appeal to (literally) far-sighted collectors, and to more fringe collectors. Still not sure why the Maine design is commanding such a premium, but...

    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
  • felinfoelfelinfoel Posts: 407 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I collect some moderns (including the ATBs), and have done quite well on some by buying when they were released (such as Hawaii, Denali, etc).

    I bought one of Eric's books, and read it cover to cover. He was big on ASEs, calling them the modern Morgans.

    For me, a nail in the coffin for moderns is spotting of (some) silver coins. I was building a decent ASE collection, buying the limited US Mint sets when they were released (like the 25th anniversary set), getting them graded, etc. A year or two later many spotted.

  • GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭

    @felinfoel said:
    I collect some moderns (including the ATBs), and have done quite well on some by buying when they were released (such as Hawaii, Denali, etc).

    I bought one of Eric's books, and read it cover to cover. He was big on ASEs, calling them the modern Morgans.

    For me, a nail in the coffin for moderns is spotting of (some) silver coins. I was building a decent ASE collection, buying the limited US Mint sets when they were released (like the 25th anniversary set), getting them graded, etc. A year or two later many spotted.

    I forget...did only the graded/slabbed coins spot, or did some spot in the original Mint packaging, too?

    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
  • felinfoelfelinfoel Posts: 407 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GritsMan said:
    I forget...did only the graded/slabbed coins spot, or did some spot in the original Mint packaging, too?

    Some of both, in my case.

  • youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭
    edited February 3, 2017 7:21PM

    Time to revive and revitalize this thread.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Originally posted by: renman95
    Fast forward to 2021...you have the 2016 Merc, SLQ, and Walker, plus the 2009 UHR and 2014 Kennedy. What's missing? A gold 2021 High Relief Peace dollar.

    What's missing? To answer that question, we are missing a gold Indian Cent, a gold Lincoln Wheat Cent, a gold Lincoln Memorial Cent, a gold Buffalo Nickel, a gold Jefferson Nickel, a gold Barber Dime, a gold Roosie, a gold Barber Quarter, a gold Washington Quarter (classic style), a gold Barber Half, a gold Franklin Half, a gold Morgan, a gold Peace Dollar, and a gold Eisenhower Dollar. Throw in a gold Susie if you really wanna get crazy.

    If that's not enough, start working your way back into the Flowing Hair, Classic Head and Bust coins. It would drive the classic coin collectors nuts.

    Seriously, I don't think that Eric was off the mark. Demographics and economics always change and the market does go through cycles. In 1850, there may only have been 200 coin collectors, or 500. In 1960, there were 3 million to 4 million proof sets sold every year - to collectors, old and young.

    Some of the relationships between mintages, selling rates, scrap percentages, comparisons between various classic series vs. modern series - they still all remain valid, in my opinion. The market doesn't always react on our specified timetable, but I do think that these relationships are interesting and worthwhile to note.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @younique said:
    Time to revive and revitalize this thread.

    Time to revive and revitalize the economy. Once it perks up I think the market for low-mintage moderns will also. Right now most of the coin money seems to be going to bullion items. Last year alone consumers spent nearly $2 billion on newly minted gold and silver eagles and buffalos, and probably an equal amount on bullion coins from other countries' mints. The market for low-mintage moderns is miniscule by comparison. But anyone buying bullion coins today is a potential collector tomorrow. It wouldn't take very many of them to dramatically increase demand for modern issues with low four-figure mintages.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The modern coin market is only a small segment of the bullion market, which is small compared to the stock market, which is tiny compared to the bond market. With all of that money sloshing around, it doesn't take much of a change in investor psychology for modern bullion coins to experience an influx of new money, and when such an influx does occur, the low mintage precious metal coins will be re-discovered. At that point, Eric's analyses will be resurrected and a new wave of interest will cascade into the modern bullion collectable coin market. You heard it hear first, or second anyway. Overdate just beat me to it.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭
    edited February 4, 2017 7:52PM

    @CoinMaster1229 said:
    Thanks for the insightful post!

    What I don't understand is why the recent changes? I've been following the Jackie Unc and the 95 W since about '08. The prices for both have remained fairly constant in that time until, it seems, pretty recently. The prices in Eric's book have been representative of those reaslzed since '08 and likely prior as his book was published in '08. Has the collector base for ASEs increased sharply in that time or the base for the $5 gold commems dropped so sharply in that time so as to account for a nearly 50% decrese in the price of the Jackie Unc?

    I think that Jackie is likely to remain King as so many pay attention to sales numbers now and the off-sale dates are usually known. Thus, I don't think that a drop in price is due to thinking that it will be unseated.

    Interestingly, the CVS UNC, with a mintage higher than the SSB UNC has held it's value pretty well. (This also might make the SSB Unc a nice hold).

    So, while I understand your very well articulated points, I don't understand why the change to the status quo of the last 5+ years has changed recently.

    Thanks. >>

    Last I heard the CVC unc. had a mintage around 6,700 and the SSB unc. was over 7,000>>

    Just an opinion. The collector base for the modern commemoratives has been trimmed by the ever increasing marketing techniques and products by the Mint. It is not coincidence that the Mint, upon pulling the NPS's logged in replacement requests as "returned," resulting in the low sales figures. After all, 19 years later the Jackie was old news. Lets liven things up in 2017. That was then, this is now.

  • A number of things have happened since 2008 to dampen demand for many of these items.

    In no particular order consider................

    The average age of coin collectors continues to advance. While there are a few new collectors they are not in sufficient numbers to replace those older collectors who are lost. I doubt collecting will ever regain level of interest we saw in pre-2000 time period.

    In 2008 after getting stung by wild swings in spot platinum and or PM prices the mint changed the return policy from 30 to 7 days and they began a formal program to adjust prices based on PM prices.
    Before you could watch PM prices closely and when there was a sudden spike you could buy mint products at a very modest premium to spot.....no more.

    Also since 2008 the premium over spot for various new mint products has increased significantly making any purchase more risky.

    IMO one major change for moderns is the listing of weekly sales numbers. The recent gold National Park Service unc $5 coin would have likely closed with less than 4,000 sales under old system where sales numbers were not released until sale period had closed. With weekly sales posted it was well recognized that it had a low mintage and to some degree this became self defeating as it drew in speculators/flippers resulting in around 700 coins sold in last week. That is a HUGE overhang that will will have to be worked off before long term demand/price is known.

    The marked decline in PM prices in last 2-5 years(Gold $2,000 to $1200, Silver $49 to $17, Platinum $2,000 to $1,000) has had a general dampening effect on interest in all bullion based coins. It is well recognized that interest/volume of trades rises with rising prices and declines with falling prices. This is true of stocks and all commodities. IMO we need another spike in prices and rush to the melting pot to clean out a major overhang of bullion based mint products. I'll state that if I see prices spike again over half of my collection/hoard will be scraped for spot. Various non key gold, silver and platinum eagles, FS coins and $5 gold will all be gone. And yes if sold for spot I do tastefully deface coins before sale............that is only way to truly reduce overhang.

    A final thought for future............some countries are now going cashless where ALL transactions are electronic. It may be a number of years or decades before we see this but it is a possibility to consider and discuss.

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭

    If you think it is bad now, just wait till later.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A question for 2manycoins2fewfunds & HalfStrike - I'm not denying what you say, but do you think that this portends lower and lower mintages in all series, and until coinage is no longer made at all?

    I have some difficulty in thinking that we will get to that point, especially if precious metals are involved. Since 2008, gold eagle production has been pretty steady at levels that don't indicate declining interest. There is an underlying demand that isn't going away. Ultimately, this spills over into the collectable bullion markets.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Wow, I just don't see there being a whole bunch of collectors out there. Flippers, yes, and speculators. Stackers? Yes. Precious metal accumulators? Well, maybe a few of those if you choose to call them collectors.

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭

    The mint has gone back to releasing too many products, and they are doing it because they need the revenues. With more releases that means sales will be lower for most products. Those that might have purchased the commemoratives will instead purchase the one-year special releases.

    As they keep adding to the number of coins released, it makes it more expensive to collect them so fewer will buy past issues. That drives prices lower.

  • itsnotjustmeitsnotjustme Posts: 8,777 ✭✭✭

    Amazing. I have been away for years, and the same thread is still active.

    Give Blood (Red Bags) & Platelets (Yellow Bags)!

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