<< <i>The revision/update to Eric's book which would stand out the most would have to be the mintage (or surviving pop.) tables of coins of the last 200 years. That list, once you get . to the modern coins, is now completely dominated by spouses. In comparison, Jackie Robinson is not scarce in the least. Once the spouse series is concuded next year there may be as many as 15 or so of them with a lower production than the scarcest burnished plat. eagle. Another thing to throw out there: on the subject of the '99-w 'error' gold eagles, with the passage of time, observing the market, trends on ebay, and some grading service data which was heretofore neglected, I strongly believe these are more common than previously thought. That doesn't mean they aren't good coins in high grade, after all they have fared much better than the best of the burnished fractional gold eagles. >>
I got back into Coins in 1999 during the State Quarters boom. I missed out on the Jackie Robinson and really used to feel bad about that. But now that I jumped when I saw opportunity and am now sitting on 10 BU and 1 Proof Eleanor, I'm feeling good. Hope it lasts.
At the very least, I have no desire to buy a Jackie Robinson. Or a 95-W Silver Eagle.
<< <i>The revision/update to Eric's book which would stand out the most would have to be the mintage (or surviving pop.) tables of coins of the last 200 years. That list, once you get . to the modern coins, is now completely dominated by spouses. In comparison, Jackie Robinson is not scarce in the least. Once the spouse series is concuded next year there may be as many as 15 or so of them with a lower production than the scarcest burnished plat. eagle. Another thing to throw out there: on the subject of the '99-w 'error' gold eagles, with the passage of time, observing the market, trends on ebay, and some grading service data which was heretofore neglected, I strongly believe these are more common than previously thought. That doesn't mean they aren't good coins in high grade, after all they have fared much better than the best of the burnished fractional gold eagles. >>
I got back into Coins in 1999 during the State Quarters boom. I missed out on the Jackie Robinson and really used to feel bad about that. But now that I jumped when I saw opportunity and am now sitting on 10 BU and 1 Proof Eleanor, I'm feeling good. Hope it lasts.
At the very least, I have no desire to buy a Jackie Robinson. Or a 95-W Silver Eagle. >>
Congrats on a great score with the ERs!!
As luck - or a lack thereof - would have it I actually sent three absolutely beautiful BUs back to the Mint just a few days before they went "out of stock" Fortunately, I was able to buy a raw but very nice (looks like a 70) coin on Feebay at near issue cost from a seller who had not yet realized that they had gone out of stock so at least I have one.
If I were fortunate enough to have 9 BUs, I would consider selling a few if prices bump up more which I think is likely to take some of the profit off of the table in case she is unseated.
I've done pretty well with the FS coins - save sending those ERs back - by selling immediately former keys at great prices as soon as it became clear that they would be unseated and then buying the new key before some sellers realized their status. I have this forum to thank for much of the information which allowed me to do this. I think that the best score was selling a Julia Tyler MS70FS for around $4K which I had picked up for around $1300.
It looks like it's time to sell my MS70FS Garfield. I'm was waiting for Eleanor to go "sold out" but I think that she will clearly beat Gafield.
It’s been nearly eight years since this thread began, and during that time the market for moderns has fallen short of many of our expectations. Prices on many 2006-2008 low-mintage keys are stagnating, and some have fallen more than 50% from their highs. Several recent uncirculated gold commems have four-figure mintages yet sell for well under $500.
The First Spouse series has been especially hard hit – the 2014 issues have mintages around 2300 to 2400 for proofs and less than 2000 for uncircs, yet many of them are still available from the Mint’s website with few takers. And every coin in the four-coin Liberty subset can be found for less than $1000, in both proof and uncirculated.
The weak economy is partly to blame, along with a multi-year decline in precious metal prices and a large number of offerings from the Mint that compete with each other for the collector’s dollar. But even allowing for all that, it appears there aren't that many collectors who are willing and financially able to purchase the Mint’s more expensive and less traditional offerings, and support their prices in the aftermarket.
Based on historical norms, many low-mintage moderns are for sale at prices that, on the surface, appear to be absolute bargains. But unless dramatic changes occur in the marketplace, these prices may remain low for many years to come.
Too many offerings by the mint and a major decline in metals prices will yield some nice looking low mintages. Buy when others cannot or will not and in time you will be rewarded. This is what I took away from this thread over the many years its been active.
Toss in a hated design into the mix of too many offerings and a decline in pm prices and you have yourself a real winner Spouses will dominate the low mintage tables, and ultimately a winner will be crowned queen as it will be the lowest minted coin in mint history. Think about that. A coin that is currently being produced, for a somewhat small premium over melt on the base metal will end up being the lowest minted coin in history to date. Thats just crazy.
I think you are correct Overdate, some of these coins look cheap. Its because they are cheap right now. If you arent capital starved and can place some of it in a low downside, high upside coin, many of the spouses out right now fit this criteria. Being a half ounce of gold as the floor (yes you pay the 30% premium to melt now), with significant upside due to mintage and scarcity in time, I really don't see any significant downside other than initial upfront cost on the coins (which has the same cost as proof 1/2 oz age's that currently sit at 4 times the mintage of any one spouse coin).
"It’s been nearly eight years since this thread began, and during that time the market for moderns has fallen short of many of our expectations."
Take a closer look at pages 107-08 of Eric's book. Things may have gone in a slightly different direction over the past 8 years than just pure precious metal "investing" (Eric's word not mine ... "Invest Today Profit Tomorrow"). But, what is the hottest Modern Coin today - a Truman Dollar scarcity with slightly over just 50% the mintage of a 1995-W Silver Eagle that is worth $3000 - $4,000 with its roughly 31,000 mintage (while the Truman dollar is less than a $100 coin). What if the Pres Dollar coin series take off? !! Again, take another look at pages 107-08 of Eric's book.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I don't know that I'm a True Believer in all of Eric's theories, but I really do enjoy his book. And even though prices on many of the 06-08 items have waxed and waned, I'm very happy to have most of them in my collection. Coins such as the fractional buffs and the 2008-W quarter-ounce gold, even if their mintages are not nearly as low as the spouses, are items I am much happier to own. They just have a classiness that the spouses and many of the recent commems lack.
That all said, I'm not expecting the collector base to increase anytime soon and that makes for a great deal of uncertainty into the future. It goes back to collecting the coins you really love...
It's so great to see this thread pop up every now and then. It's my favorite thread on the forum. Man, 2006 - 2008 were some good time for moderns.
This thread convinced me to order a few of the 2008 W buff 4 coins sets. I still have one of each, proof and unc, in the Mint sealed box. I wonder how many of those are out there.
If to any significant degree supply exceeds demand then price will decline until demand increases or base metal value is reached.
Just because a mint product is low mintage it will not have a significant increase in value unless there is demand in excess of supply.
For the gold spouses it appears real demand is below 2,000 units.
Here is a question to consider..........
If you walked into a major coin show with a complete set of Spouses in proof or Unc all in OGP what offers would you receive in relation to original mint price?? What premium over current spot gold??
Personally I believe the mint missed an opportunity when these were introduced.
They should have had a $4 face value.............modern Stellas.
<< <i>For the gold spouses it appears real demand is below 2,000 units. >>
And for the uncirculated version *way* below.
The upside is that it wouldn't take much of an absolute increase in demand to send prices for the spouse keys sharply higher. This could happen with an improving economy or a boost in collector interest once the series is complete next year.
I'd guess that the 5-ounce pucks have a much better possibility of garnering a real collector base than the spouses. The ATBs have so much going for them--they're affordable, beautiful, easy to look at, and have a big chunk of silver in them. The spouses? Well, they're nondescript and all mainly about rarity, which is probably not enough to attract a real following. We will all find out!
I can't see any demand to speak of for them. I can't help but think of some of the classic silver commems of similar mintage that absolutely languish - who really cares. Even worse is likely to be the recent Truman issue in RP. Even semi-rabid mint collectors/accumultors such as myself (and quite a number of others I have talked to) have seriously lagging interest in these coins with likely no increased interest with the end of the series. More like relief would be the word.
As 2many says, walk into a coin show and see what the dealers would offer for the "keys" in the spouse series or a complete set as that would be certainly one valid method of determining value. To an extent I agree with Grits, although there is a bit of a similar block with the silver pucks. I don't perceive a huge demand rise for them either, and evidently even the flippers have grown tired of them...
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
I would guess that most people collecting the Spouses and the 5-oz. ATBs will be aiming for specific coins rather than the complete series. The popularity of the Jackie Kennedy coin, as well as the Hawaii and Mount Rushmore ATBs, are examples of this.
As a series, the Spouses are too expensive for the vast majority of collectors, and the ATBs when completed will take up too much space, especially the boxed collectors' versions.
<< <i>I would guess that most people collecting the Spouses and the 5-oz. ATBs will be aiming for specific coins rather than the complete series. The popularity of the Jackie Kennedy coin, as well as the Hawaii and Mount Rushmore ATBs, are examples of this.
As a series, the Spouses are too expensive for the vast majority of collectors, and the ATBs when completed will take up too much space, especially the boxed collectors' versions. >>
Guess I don't fit the mold as I am a collector in both series haha. Time will tell
<< <i>It is IMO very unlikely that we will see an increase in collector demand for most non classic coins. >>
So you think that all the YN's growing up right now are going to be more interested in 100+ year old coins than the coins that they grew up collecting (or wanting to collect but it was too expensive)?
I clearly remember there being many young boys and girls, age 8-13 male and female at the Santa Barbara Coin Club and the annual show at Earl Warren Showgrounds. We even used to do informal trading in some kids' garages. I have not seen any such going on anymore AT ALL. There are the odd YNs at the Baltimore shows, but certainly not the numbers or percentages that there were. I don't think we used to talk about the "greying" of the collector base 40 years ago.
Also, there was a lot of enthusiasm for circulated keys like the 1932 D and S quarters, the 1955 Franklin Half, etc. that is TOTALLY lacking now. I could give a lot more examples too. I have a job where I see many people from all walks of life, and not just young people but also ALL types of people.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
What I think is that there are more leaving the collecting field than there are entering.
I will venture that most of us started collecting coins found from pocket change or from rolls obtained at banks. We collected stamps, built models and spent considerable time playing outside. Our interests grew from there.........................
Today very few youth do these things..............and those who do these things rarely devote the time we dedicated to our hobbies.
You may know a few youths with interest in coin collecting but they are the exception.
<< <i>It is IMO very unlikely that we will see an increase in collector demand for most non classic coins. >>
So you think that all the YN's growing up right now are going to be more interested in 100+ year old coins than the coins that they grew up collecting (or wanting to collect but it was too expensive)? >>
I'm a YN and not interested in bullion or any of the ATB's or Spouse coins, but I am interested in 100+ year old coins. Most modern creations by the US and other mints seem like gimmicks to me. I collect coins with history, significance and beauty. I don't mind flipping bullion to fund my collection, but I find ATB's and the first spouse coins underwhelming and "a dime a dozen".
I'm luckily enough to have a great job in the financial sector and one of our mantras are: "Past performance is not indicative of future results". This always helps ground me and remind me that anything can happen. The more important question you should ask is since a large part of the US population is getting older (baby boomers) and living off of their pensions and 401(k)'s, will the stock market start trending down?
since a large part of the US population is getting older (baby boomers) and living off of their pensions and 401(k)'s, will the stock market start trending down?
That's the $64,000 Question, isn't it?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Just looking through the Coin Values of my July Coin World, and noticed dramatic spikes in the listed values of a couple of marquee moderns over their May prices...
The key date 1991 $25 gold eagle jumped from $2950 to $4000 in MS-69.
During the same time period, the $10 2008-W Burnished jumped from $1475 to $1650 in MS-69.
Any thoughts on what might be going on, or if this in fact is real? I imagine just one collector seeking these coins could influence their prices...
The stock market will not be affected by boomers and their 401ks. It is driven by growth and returns from operations, ownership is diversified throughout the world as it is now a global economy.
To the point about Y/Ns, from my perch I see them interested in older coins more than moderns. The fact that the hobby is mostly old white guys has been true forever. Much is about disposable income as you age. I was a Y/N when young, but had no funds. When I had the time and disposable income I returned to the hobby. It is important to provide a starting point for Y/Ns IMHO as we must replenish the supply, not to mention it is FUN to share information and encourage those who choose your hobby.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
The spouse coins will not settle out until the series is finished being sold by the mint obviously. Once that happens the keys will be known and will probably be priced accordingly.
The other low mintage moderns have not done as well as predicted due to high metal prices and the number of scare issues being sold by the mint. There is that dilution factor that happens and it has happened in these coins unfortunately. Way back when the platinum W unc and proof coins looked so scarce nobody could predict gold spouse coins would come in with even lower mintages. The spouses killed off the platinum coins and the spouse coins having declining sales killed themselves off as well.
Eventually the low mintages will matter but how long that takes now is anyone's guess. If the mint continues to put out low mintage stuff then it postpones the eventual appreciation everyone hopes for IMHO. People would rather buy more of the latest low mintage coins instead of paying three times the price for an older coin with the same mintage.
Good observations. Since the Mint tries to sell as many coins at nice margins as possible, they really don't care one whit about dilution. So we can continue to expect more of the same, based on what they think their surveys tell them.
This could mean constant variations on a theme, such as a $100 gold Liberty High Relief one day, and a concave baseball coin the next. Pretty soon, we can expect holograms, embedded gemstones and colored tantalum coins just like the other fly-by-night mint operators. Whatever sells to a public with a short attention span.
As long as there's sufficient market demand, they will continue on this tack. Once they can't pump out more product over a period of a few years, they will have to adapt. What does this mean for price performance in light of the dilution factor? I suppose it depends on when the Mint realizes that they can't squeeze any more water from a rock, but in the meantime I agree with HalfStrike that the price appreciation will be postponed.
Still, a prime justification for buying "collector bullion" from the Mint will always be the precious metal content and how that relates to the status of the economy. The precious metal content will always provide a floor underneath bullion coins. When the precious metal market trends up (someday), the demand for generic bullion coins will always bring in additional collectors looking for higher yield, and as ericj96 once pointed out, the higher mintage coins tend to act as an advertisement for the keys.
Keys are produced when nobody is interested in buying them and the price appreciation occurs when the dust has settled a bit.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Well, now that the High Relief $100 Gold Liberty coin has been released, it's time to data-mine this old thread and see what comments were being made about the Ultra High Relief St. Gaudens back in 2009 before the release, during the release period, and after the close of sales.
I wonder what was being said...................
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Keys are produced when nobody is interested in buying them and the price appreciation occurs when the dust has settled a bit. >>
The Mint's website currently shows three 2014-dated uncirculated First Spouse coins, each containing 1/2 ounce of gold, each with a likely mintage well under 2,000, for sale at about $170 above bullion price. Weekly sales of these coins are in single digits and some weeks none are sold at all. Clearly the current collector demand has been met and the flippers don't foresee a price rise anytime soon. I think these coins are destined to be keys (along with the sold-out Eleanor Roosevelt) but it could be decades before their scarcity is truly appreciated.
From the horse's mouth. None of the coin sites seem to be updating the latest figures.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I'd guess that the 5-ounce pucks have a much better possibility of garnering a real collector base than the spouses. The ATBs have so much going for them--they're affordable, beautiful, easy to look at, and have a big chunk of silver in them. The spouses? Well, they're nondescript and all mainly about rarity, which is probably not enough to attract a real following. We will all find out! >>
I think one thing you overlook is that the 5oz ATB are hard to store. They are monsters.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>I'd guess that the 5-ounce pucks have a much better possibility of garnering a real collector base than the spouses. The ATBs have so much going for them--they're affordable, beautiful, easy to look at, and have a big chunk of silver in them. The spouses? Well, they're nondescript and all mainly about rarity, which is probably not enough to attract a real following. We will all find out! >>
I think one thing you overlook is that the 5oz ATB are hard to store. They are monsters. >>
I have six on a bookshelf atm.. wondering at what point the whole thing is going to come crashing down.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
<< <i>I'd guess that the 5-ounce pucks have a much better possibility of garnering a real collector base than the spouses. The ATBs have so much going for them--they're affordable, beautiful, easy to look at, and have a big chunk of silver in them. The spouses? Well, they're nondescript and all mainly about rarity, which is probably not enough to attract a real following. We will all find out! >>
I think one thing you overlook is that the 5oz ATB are hard to store. They are monsters. >>
I have six on a bookshelf atm.. wondering at what point the whole thing is going to come crashing down. >>
You only need so many door stops. After cosllecting these for a few years a collector is in danger of looking like one of those reclusive hoarders that have precious metals stashed in every nook and cranny. Just grow out your beard and stop talking to your neighbors and family and the picture is complete. Of course it makes for an interesting numismatic story eventually when someone stumbles across your hoard.
ps. is the op if this grand thread still active here? He used to chime in regularly.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Sign of the times: Three half-ounce gold coins with probable mintages of 1900 or less are available from the Mint for $720 each. (2014 uncirculated First Spouses.) Sales for each coin average about 5 to 10 per week.
Remember when this thread began and 2400 was considered an unbelievably low mintage? Now this thread sometimes goes months between posts.
Sign of the times: Three half-ounce gold coins with probable mintages of 1900 or less are available from the Mint for $720 each. (2014 uncirculated First Spouses.) Sales for each coin average about 5 to 10 per week.
Hypothetical conversation:
"Did you know that the Mint is making rare gold coins?"
"What's a coin?"
On another note, has the Mint bothered to tell anyone when they are releasing the Proof Plats?
And, have they trashed the idea of issuing any Unc Plats this year?
Hey Mint, here's an idea - communicate!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Originally posted by: Overdate Sign of the times: Three half-ounce gold coins with probable mintages of 1900 or less are available from the Mint for $720 each. (2014 uncirculated First Spouses.) Sales for each coin average about 5 to 10 per week.
Remember when this thread began and 2400 was considered an unbelievably low mintage? Now this thread sometimes goes months between posts.
No pain, no gain. All 2014 FS coins will be gone pretty soon. mintage below 1900 =new normal ?
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
Hard to communicate when someone at a teleprompter dictates. Sorry, I don't mean to go too far off topic. This is a great thread and chock full of beautiful, intellectually stimulating people; along with great coins , great advice and friendly neighbors.
We have seen silver go from $15 to $45 and back. We have seen gold go from $900 to $1900 and nearly back…. platinum from $2000 to $900, since the threads' inception. As coins go, even the "low mintages" suffer in this environment. But …. the future is why many of us collect things from the past, today.
Comments
<< <i>The revision/update to Eric's book which would stand out the most would have to be the mintage (or surviving pop.) tables of coins of the last 200 years. That list, once you get . to the modern coins, is now completely dominated by spouses. In comparison, Jackie Robinson is not scarce in the least. Once the spouse series is concuded next year there may be as many as 15 or so of them with a lower production than the scarcest burnished plat. eagle.
Another thing to throw out there: on the subject of the '99-w 'error' gold eagles, with the passage of time, observing the market, trends on ebay, and some grading service data which was heretofore neglected, I strongly believe these are more common than previously thought. That doesn't mean they aren't good coins in high grade, after all they have fared much better than the best of the burnished fractional gold eagles. >>
I got back into Coins in 1999 during the State Quarters boom. I missed out on the Jackie Robinson and really used to feel bad about that. But now that I jumped when I saw opportunity and am now sitting on 10 BU and 1 Proof Eleanor, I'm feeling good. Hope it lasts.
At the very least, I have no desire to buy a Jackie Robinson. Or a 95-W Silver Eagle.
<< <i>
<< <i>The revision/update to Eric's book which would stand out the most would have to be the mintage (or surviving pop.) tables of coins of the last 200 years. That list, once you get . to the modern coins, is now completely dominated by spouses. In comparison, Jackie Robinson is not scarce in the least. Once the spouse series is concuded next year there may be as many as 15 or so of them with a lower production than the scarcest burnished plat. eagle.
Another thing to throw out there: on the subject of the '99-w 'error' gold eagles, with the passage of time, observing the market, trends on ebay, and some grading service data which was heretofore neglected, I strongly believe these are more common than previously thought. That doesn't mean they aren't good coins in high grade, after all they have fared much better than the best of the burnished fractional gold eagles. >>
I got back into Coins in 1999 during the State Quarters boom. I missed out on the Jackie Robinson and really used to feel bad about that. But now that I jumped when I saw opportunity and am now sitting on 10 BU and 1 Proof Eleanor, I'm feeling good. Hope it lasts.
At the very least, I have no desire to buy a Jackie Robinson. Or a 95-W Silver Eagle. >>
Congrats on a great score with the ERs!!
As luck - or a lack thereof - would have it I actually sent three absolutely beautiful BUs back to the Mint just a few days before they went "out of stock"
If I were fortunate enough to have 9 BUs, I would consider selling a few if prices bump up more which I think is likely to take some of the profit off of the table in case she is unseated.
I've done pretty well with the FS coins - save sending those ERs back - by selling immediately former keys at great prices as soon as it became clear that they would be unseated and then buying the new key before some sellers realized their status. I have this forum to thank for much of the information which allowed me to do this. I think that the best score was selling a Julia Tyler MS70FS for around $4K which I had picked up for around $1300.
It looks like it's time to sell my MS70FS Garfield. I'm was waiting for Eleanor to go "sold out" but I think that she will clearly beat Gafield.
The First Spouse series has been especially hard hit – the 2014 issues have mintages around 2300 to 2400 for proofs and less than 2000 for uncircs, yet many of them are still available from the Mint’s website with few takers. And every coin in the four-coin Liberty subset can be found for less than $1000, in both proof and uncirculated.
The weak economy is partly to blame, along with a multi-year decline in precious metal prices and a large number of offerings from the Mint that compete with each other for the collector’s dollar. But even allowing for all that, it appears there aren't that many collectors who are willing and financially able to purchase the Mint’s more expensive and less traditional offerings, and support their prices in the aftermarket.
Based on historical norms, many low-mintage moderns are for sale at prices that, on the surface, appear to be absolute bargains. But unless dramatic changes occur in the marketplace, these prices may remain low for many years to come.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Toss in a hated design into the mix of too many offerings and a decline in pm prices and you have yourself a real winner
I think you are correct Overdate, some of these coins look cheap. Its because they are cheap right now. If you arent capital starved and can place some of it in a low downside, high upside coin, many of the spouses out right now fit this criteria. Being a half ounce of gold as the floor (yes you pay the 30% premium to melt now), with significant upside due to mintage and scarcity in time, I really don't see any significant downside other than initial upfront cost on the coins (which has the same cost as proof 1/2 oz age's that currently sit at 4 times the mintage of any one spouse coin).
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
Take a closer look at pages 107-08 of Eric's book. Things may have gone in a slightly different direction over the past 8 years than just pure precious metal "investing" (Eric's word not mine ... "Invest Today Profit Tomorrow"). But, what is the hottest Modern Coin today - a Truman Dollar scarcity with slightly over just 50% the mintage of a 1995-W Silver Eagle that is worth $3000 - $4,000 with its roughly 31,000 mintage (while the Truman dollar is less than a $100 coin). What if the Pres Dollar coin series take off? !! Again, take another look at pages 107-08 of Eric's book.
Wondercoin
That all said, I'm not expecting the collector base to increase anytime soon and that makes for a great deal of uncertainty into the future. It goes back to collecting the coins you really love...
<< <i>I can't believe I read the whole thing
This is the thread that actually made me sign up with an account and stop lurking. Its a great thread!
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
This thread convinced me to order a few of the 2008 W buff 4 coins sets. I still have one of each, proof and unc, in the Mint sealed box. I wonder how many of those are out there.
If to any significant degree supply exceeds demand then price will decline until demand increases or base metal value is reached.
Just because a mint product is low mintage it will not have a significant increase in value unless there is demand in excess of supply.
For the gold spouses it appears real demand is below 2,000 units.
Here is a question to consider..........
If you walked into a major coin show with a complete set of Spouses in proof or Unc all in OGP what offers would you receive in relation to original mint price?? What premium over current spot gold??
Personally I believe the mint missed an opportunity when these were introduced.
They should have had a $4 face value.............modern Stellas.
<< <i>For the gold spouses it appears real demand is below 2,000 units. >>
And for the uncirculated version *way* below.
The upside is that it wouldn't take much of an absolute increase in demand to send prices for the spouse keys sharply higher. This could happen with an improving economy or a boost in collector interest once the series is complete next year.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
As 2many says, walk into a coin show and see what the dealers would offer for the "keys" in the spouse series or a complete set as that would be certainly one valid method of determining value. To an extent I agree with Grits, although there is a bit of a similar block with the silver pucks. I don't perceive a huge demand rise for them either, and evidently even the flippers have grown tired of them...
Well, just Love coins, period.
As a series, the Spouses are too expensive for the vast majority of collectors, and the ATBs when completed will take up too much space, especially the boxed collectors' versions.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>I would guess that most people collecting the Spouses and the 5-oz. ATBs will be aiming for specific coins rather than the complete series. The popularity of the Jackie Kennedy coin, as well as the Hawaii and Mount Rushmore ATBs, are examples of this.
As a series, the Spouses are too expensive for the vast majority of collectors, and the ATBs when completed will take up too much space, especially the boxed collectors' versions. >>
Guess I don't fit the mold as I am a collector in both series haha. Time will tell
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
How many new collectors are entering the market each year in relation those who are lost?
I would venture a guess that the average age of PCGS members lengthens each year.
I bet if you go back 40 years people said the same thing about the hobby.....
<< <i>It is IMO very unlikely that we will see an increase in collector demand for most non classic coins. >>
So you think that all the YN's growing up right now are going to be more interested in 100+ year old coins than the coins that they grew up collecting (or wanting to collect but it was too expensive)?
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
Also, there was a lot of enthusiasm for circulated keys like the 1932 D and S quarters, the 1955 Franklin Half, etc. that is TOTALLY lacking now. I could give a lot more examples too. I have a job where I see many people from all walks of life, and not just young people but also ALL types of people.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I will venture that most of us started collecting coins found from pocket change or from rolls obtained at banks.
We collected stamps, built models and spent considerable time playing outside.
Our interests grew from there.........................
Today very few youth do these things..............and those who do these things rarely devote the time we dedicated to our hobbies.
You may know a few youths with interest in coin collecting but they are the exception.
<< <i>
<< <i>It is IMO very unlikely that we will see an increase in collector demand for most non classic coins. >>
So you think that all the YN's growing up right now are going to be more interested in 100+ year old coins than the coins that they grew up collecting (or wanting to collect but it was too expensive)? >>
I'm a YN and not interested in bullion or any of the ATB's or Spouse coins, but I am interested in 100+ year old coins. Most modern creations by the US and other mints seem like gimmicks to me. I collect coins with history, significance and beauty. I don't mind flipping bullion to fund my collection, but I find ATB's and the first spouse coins underwhelming and "a dime a dozen".
I'm luckily enough to have a great job in the financial sector and one of our mantras are: "Past performance is not indicative of future results". This always helps ground me and remind me that anything can happen. The more important question you should ask is since a large part of the US population is getting older (baby boomers) and living off of their pensions and 401(k)'s, will the stock market start trending down?
That's the $64,000 Question, isn't it?
I knew it would happen.
The key date 1991 $25 gold eagle jumped from $2950 to $4000 in MS-69.
During the same time period, the $10 2008-W Burnished jumped from $1475 to $1650 in MS-69.
Any thoughts on what might be going on, or if this in fact is real? I imagine just one collector seeking these coins could influence their prices...
reliable was that info?
It's a matter of opinion.
To the point about Y/Ns, from my perch I see them interested in older coins more than moderns. The fact that the hobby is mostly old white guys has been true forever. Much is about disposable income as you age. I was a Y/N when young, but had no funds. When I had the time and disposable income I returned to the hobby. It is important to provide a starting point for Y/Ns IMHO as we must replenish the supply, not to mention it is FUN to share information and encourage those who choose your hobby.
The other low mintage moderns have not done as well as predicted due to high metal prices and the number of scare issues being sold by the mint. There is that dilution factor that happens and it has happened in these coins unfortunately. Way back when the platinum W unc and proof coins looked so scarce nobody could predict gold spouse coins would come in with even lower mintages. The spouses killed off the platinum coins and the spouse coins having declining sales killed themselves off as well.
Eventually the low mintages will matter but how long that takes now is anyone's guess. If the mint continues to put out low mintage stuff then it postpones the eventual appreciation everyone hopes for IMHO. People would rather buy more of the latest low mintage coins instead of paying three times the price for an older coin with the same mintage.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
This could mean constant variations on a theme, such as a $100 gold Liberty High Relief one day, and a concave baseball coin the next. Pretty soon, we can expect holograms, embedded gemstones and colored tantalum coins just like the other fly-by-night mint operators. Whatever sells to a public with a short attention span.
As long as there's sufficient market demand, they will continue on this tack. Once they can't pump out more product over a period of a few years, they will have to adapt. What does this mean for price performance in light of the dilution factor? I suppose it depends on when the Mint realizes that they can't squeeze any more water from a rock, but in the meantime I agree with HalfStrike that the price appreciation will be postponed.
Still, a prime justification for buying "collector bullion" from the Mint will always be the precious metal content and how that relates to the status of the economy. The precious metal content will always provide a floor underneath bullion coins. When the precious metal market trends up (someday), the demand for generic bullion coins will always bring in additional collectors looking for higher yield, and as ericj96 once pointed out, the higher mintage coins tend to act as an advertisement for the keys.
Keys are produced when nobody is interested in buying them and the price appreciation occurs when the dust has settled a bit.
I knew it would happen.
I wonder what was being said...................
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Keys are produced when nobody is interested in buying them and the price appreciation occurs when the dust has settled a bit. >>
The Mint's website currently shows three 2014-dated uncirculated First Spouse coins, each containing 1/2 ounce of gold, each with a likely mintage well under 2,000, for sale at about $170 above bullion price. Weekly sales of these coins are in single digits and some weeks none are sold at all. Clearly the current collector demand has been met and the flippers don't foresee a price rise anytime soon. I think these coins are destined to be keys (along with the sold-out Eleanor Roosevelt) but it could be decades before their scarcity is truly appreciated.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
From the horse's mouth. None of the coin sites seem to be updating the latest figures.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I'd guess that the 5-ounce pucks have a much better possibility of garnering a real collector base than the spouses. The ATBs have so much going for them--they're affordable, beautiful, easy to look at, and have a big chunk of silver in them. The spouses? Well, they're nondescript and all mainly about rarity, which is probably not enough to attract a real following. We will all find out! >>
I think one thing you overlook is that the 5oz ATB are hard to store. They are monsters.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'd guess that the 5-ounce pucks have a much better possibility of garnering a real collector base than the spouses. The ATBs have so much going for them--they're affordable, beautiful, easy to look at, and have a big chunk of silver in them. The spouses? Well, they're nondescript and all mainly about rarity, which is probably not enough to attract a real following. We will all find out! >>
I think one thing you overlook is that the 5oz ATB are hard to store. They are monsters. >>
I have six on a bookshelf atm.. wondering at what point the whole thing is going to come crashing down.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I'd guess that the 5-ounce pucks have a much better possibility of garnering a real collector base than the spouses. The ATBs have so much going for them--they're affordable, beautiful, easy to look at, and have a big chunk of silver in them. The spouses? Well, they're nondescript and all mainly about rarity, which is probably not enough to attract a real following. We will all find out! >>
I think one thing you overlook is that the 5oz ATB are hard to store. They are monsters. >>
I have six on a bookshelf atm.. wondering at what point the whole thing is going to come crashing down.
You only need so many door stops. After cosllecting these for a few years a collector is in danger of looking like one of those reclusive hoarders that have precious metals stashed in every nook and cranny. Just grow out your beard and stop talking to your neighbors and family and the picture is complete.
your hoard.
ps. is the op if this grand thread still active here? He used to chime in regularly.
Remember when this thread began and 2400 was considered an unbelievably low mintage? Now this thread sometimes goes months between posts.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Hypothetical conversation:
"Did you know that the Mint is making rare gold coins?"
"What's a coin?"
On another note, has the Mint bothered to tell anyone when they are releasing the Proof Plats?
And, have they trashed the idea of issuing any Unc Plats this year?
Hey Mint, here's an idea - communicate!
I knew it would happen.
"Did you know that the Mint is making rare gold coins?"
"What's a coin?"
"It's a metal disk shaped like a phonograph record."
"What's a record?"
"It's a vinyl disk that was used to play music before CDs came along."
"What's a CD?"
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
"What's music?"
I knew it would happen.
Sign of the times: Three half-ounce gold coins with probable mintages of 1900 or less are available from the Mint for $720 each. (2014 uncirculated First Spouses.) Sales for each coin average about 5 to 10 per week.
Remember when this thread began and 2400 was considered an unbelievably low mintage? Now this thread sometimes goes months between posts.
No pain, no gain. All 2014 FS coins will be gone pretty soon.
mintage below 1900 =new normal ?
We have seen silver go from $15 to $45 and back.
We have seen gold go from $900 to $1900 and nearly back…. platinum from $2000 to $900, since the threads' inception.
As coins go, even the "low mintages" suffer in this environment. But …. the future is why many of us collect things from the past, today.
I sent a customer a signed copy of Eric's book last week for free with an order. He got it today and was very excited. So, a timely TTT.
Wondercoin.