The PR70DC Buffalo set I have listed on ebay right now is not me "taking my profits", but rather a customer of mine who plans to take his. I am certainly seeing customers now essentially telling me "I have made way too much profit.... time to sell". YOU CERTAINLY DO NOT HEAR THOSE WORDS ALL THAT OFTEN!! Of course, trying to time the "perfect profit" is not easy either and I have found most collectors are not all that successful at it.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>OK. I'm trying to wrap my simple little mind around a recent thought...If a true "type" collector collects by design, denomination & composition; wouldn't the 2004 plat be a lower mintage than the 2008--if you add the burnished and proofs? >>
Most collect by type in either mint state or proof form. Some collect both. If you dont define proof and mint state as separate types then the matte proof saints for example are dirt common as type coins.
<< <i>OK. I'm trying to wrap my simple little mind around a recent thought...If a true "type" collector collects by design, denomination & composition; wouldn't the 2004 plat be a lower mintage than the 2008--if you add the burnished and proofs? >>
Most collect by type in either mint state or proof form. Some collect both. If you dont define proof and mint state as separate types then the matte proof saints for example are dirt common as type coins. >>
However, the PCGS Registry has 50 type set categories by design or denomination and 39 don't differentiate between proof & business strike. So, I'm just not sure how significant the burnished low mintage will be to the type collector???
Thats one of the beautiful things about coins, people can collect what they like in the form or structure they like. The question is what will most people do? Thats one of the big questions about the plats. What will be the ultimate typical set form? Are the plat fractionals going to be collected as 12 coin proof sets or 16-18 member type sets?
Well Wonder - I guess it is a fair profit that one cant resist....I agree
And also in agreement are two major market makers in Moderns ....SELLING....in full page ads over the last two weeks in CW
It is time.
Buffalo's have hit the ceiling and are bouncing off, once the EBAY market tips, it'll be all downhill.
Not to say they wont stabilize at reasonable levels - some people take my comments way out of context (Half) and try to "edit" what I say.....I'm not saying that we will see USM issue prices, or even close to them, but 3x issue for raws isn't an unreasonable stabilization point for the rarer coins (not the 1 oz proof or any 1/2 oz coins)
7/8 you can say whatever you want, but when you talk about modeling these coins I just don't see that happening. Albert Einstein could not model the 2001 silver buffalo commemoratives to arrive at current prices, so I don't see how anyone expects the gold buffalo coins to follow a normal model.
If the gold buffalo coins are so overpriced as you claim then the silver commemoratives must be as well, yet after 9 years they have not fallen back to what one would assume based on the "model".
The model is only a model for a reason, anyway I am glad I bought the coins and went with my own "model". You sold way too early, sometimes it is better to go with the collateral evidence.
<< <i> I never worry about my holdings, I've rarely been hurt in any mint offerings - and have stayed away from the pure bs offerings....like Washington Covers, remember those?
7/8 >>
Hey I remember those and thought you bought those BS Washington Covers?
Let me check...Yup you said:
>>
Not impressed, although some convinced me to buy 100, so i'll take my couple hundered dollar profit and run >>
IIRC, you sold during a flood, I sold my last 100 about a month or so after you for $4,500, which beats your few hundy by about 3K...
First of all, how do you know what i hold or when i sold?
Your problem is the eurphoria you are caught up in - believing that these coins will continue to grow in value.
If you take the time to "model" any modern commems or new issues, you will realize that many things affect how quickly a coin reacts/how fast is it's growth; does it retain it's growth, stabilize and move from there - or drop back, etc etc etc.
Most popular issues follow the "immediate pop" in value and subsequent run-up, then the "drop" in value to stabilize at a level - plateau - then rarity takes over and over time it may grow again, depending on rarity, demand and PRICE. Remember, the fateful $5,000 price tag and above, that's tough territory.
These coins are overpriced. You dont want to belive it, but they are. At current levels, raw or otherwise, I do not want to own any 1 oz proof 08-w Buff's, any 1/2 oz 08-w buffs (these are the dogs of the series), and even the 1/4's are overpriced - especially the proofs.
There are literally 100's if not more coins being offered by 2 major dealers right now at today's prices - and that doesnt help your argument.
These major dealers were in deep acquisition mode for many months prior, as you might imagine, the tide has turned and they are in sales mode.
Let the buyer beware. You see many knowledgable forum members in "sell" mode right now - hold at your own risk.
Right now the 08w Buffalo market is over saturated-MCM has the big buy/sale going on and lots of individuals piling into ebay with high BIN's.This was brought about by prices that were 10-15% higher a few weeks ago.The big prices realised -especially the sick levels that First Strike and to a lesser degree the Early Release labeled coins brought- motivated holders to sell and MCM to buy/sell.This will correct itself soon and the coins will once again be harder to locate, stabilizing the prices.Once enough people hold their coins or have sold their extras,the prices will again cycle upwards ......7/8 you keep refering to the half ounce buffs as dogs-I assume you mean the unc's. If rarity is a big driver(08w $50 uncs Buffalos and 08w APE's are your examples) then collectors should hang onto their proof $25's .The $25 proofs are the low mintage coins in that series/finish and relative to other prices for 08w Buffs the current best buy(along with NGC brown labeled 08W $50 uncs)
7/8 I thought you posted middle of last year you sold all your buffalo coins, anyway I asked for the model on these gold buffalo coins and an accurate one I don't think exists.
The reason coins have a pop followed by a selloff is initially the coins seem to be trading on a relative mintage. Once all the coins are released and demand declines they trade more on the actual mintage, that is how it seems to me. If the actual mintage is too high then all of the premium gets wiped out
As I said though let's see the model that accurately predicts the silver 2001 buffalo commemorative pricing. Does anyone have that?
I don't think so because if they had that I doubt they would be saying the gold buffalo are overpriced. And I am talking the raw prices only.
The normal model does not work with these coins just like the model did not work with the platinum coins in the short-term. Some thought the platinum coins, the unc w 2008 coins would be far higher than they are today right? What happened?
I think in order to model the gold buffalo coins we would have to adjust the actual mintage down to an apparent mintage, something much less than it is today in order to compare to other modern series. I base that on the silver 2001 buffalo commemoratives.
If that models well then the prices for the gold buffalos would be higher than you are guessing.
However if anyone thinks the prices are too high then sell sell sell. But if prices go higher than they are [which is possible and probably likely as long as the mint pumps out 1 ouncers like they are] then don't be surprised by the higher prices. There is more demand than for a normal mint issue, and that is dropping the apparent mintage to something less than we realize.
Using the 2001 Buff Dollar as a comparison against the whole gold buff series is rediculous - the only thing in common is the design.
The silver buff dollar is only there (6x issue) because of price point. It is was issued at $75 per coin, it would not sell for $450. Its all about price point.
The silver buff dollar is only there (6x issue) because of price point. It is was issued at $75 per coin, it would not sell for $450. Its all about price point.
$165-$180 is reasonable.
And I did not sell all my buffalo's....... >>
it's not only price point or everything would be one low, low price.
and that common design is one really major factor in making both of them so popular. I would also imagine it helps that the fractionals (at least) are one year only (so far), and they are 24k helps, too.
Are you thinking that the "deal" at the mint and with Congress legislating "no making fractionals" is to sell the more expensive ones? The smaller ones are more readily bought due to the price and thus your saying the 1/2oz is the dog of them?
if a popular design and highly "demanded" coin that has inflated to 5-6x issue but yet is still at a "affordable" level to most collectors (the price point) - it tends to hold it's value at a high multiple to issue price.
coins priced in the $100-$500 range are highly affordable. coins priced over $1000 are far less affordable to the average collector. coins priced over $5000 are usually reserved for the advanced collector. demand at each hurdle drops substantially.
The silver buff dollar is only there (6x issue) because of price point. It is was issued at $75 per coin, it would not sell for $450. Its all about price point.
7/8 I think you missed the analogy, it seems the silver buffalo prices should not be there, but they are.
Why are they there then?
Because of the design, the same design on the gold buffalos.
If it was almost any other design those coins would sell for $35, but instead they sell for much higher.
So if those sell for much higher, then the gold buffalo coins should not be underestimated.
There are a lot less 2008 w gold buffalo coins than there are silver buffalo coins. If they are paying a decent premium for the silver ones then it only makes sense the gold ones at a mintage of 1/10 to 1/20 will be worth a lot more than you expect.
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times. >>
Yeah, what about the Plats as they continue to languish compared to the 2008-W AGE's and Buffalos yet are OK comapred to the 2006-W AGE's.
If they made the Spouses in Platinum , you think there would be a better, same, or worse secondary market??
Granted, Platinum is higher in price but seemingly, regardless of mintage, less sought after.
I wish it was different as I hold the low mintage Plat years, but the market continues to speak on behalf of the Gold.
Or, have we become a bit jaded with the mercurial rise of the 2008 Gold Buffs, comparitively speaking, expecting the super low-mintage Plats to do the same.
I watched the 2006 Anniversary issues rise and subsequently fall, as the "model" dictates; yet, the Buffs continue to ascend with no drastic fall, yet.
I will hold my meager stash as the Gold Buffalos are one of my favorite designs along with the Platinum Liberty/Eagles.
Question: Has anyone thought about reholdering a few of their Modern 69/70 Sets with the new PCGS Secure Plus thingy? The new holders do look rather flashy...
JCoin
If anyone is coming to South East Asia lemme know......
May sound like a stupid question.... does anyone know of any famous celebrities/sportsmen/politicians/royalty who collect Moderns..... I once saw on ebay some 2006-W Buffalo Proofs graded NGC PF70 with a Kareem Abdul Jaabar Pedigree........
<< <i>May sound like a stupid question.... does anyone know of any famous celebrities/sportsmen/politicians/royalty who collect Moderns..... I once saw on ebay some 2006-W Buffalo Proofs graded NGC PF70 with a Kareem Abdul Jaabar Pedigree........ >>
Are you sure you don't have him confused with someone else?
Question: Has anyone thought about reholdering a few of their Modern 69/70 Sets with the new PCGS Secure Plus thingy? The new holders do look rather flashy...
If anyone is coming to South East Asia lemme know...... >>
First, no First Strike.
Then they don't do the plus for the 69s nor 70s
Then there is the added expense, time, and potential reholdering trouble even if you don't care about the plus.
I might consider it if they add the magic FS label.
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times.
To be sure, there doesn't seem to be as much market activity in Plats, but I don't understand all the anxiety. The 4-coin sets are selling for double what they were initially re-selling for on ebay. What did everyone really expect? And besides, it's hardly the end game.
I also do not understand all of this back & forth about whether the Gold Buffs are overpriced and due for a tumble or whether the Plats will be the ultimate winners because of rarity. This isn't a stock market situation having $7.00 trades that are instantly executable. There are only two times that the pricing is important, and 50% of the important decisions were made when we decided to buy. The other important decision is when we decide to sell. Are you selling? No? Then what's the issue? If the price of the Gold Buffs has met your expectation, then sell. If you like the coins and can afford to hold them, then hold them. They will always be valuable and that is a relative term anyway.
As far as I'm concerned, with the Gold Buffs the cards are on the table. They are highly sought and will keep a nice premium until gold hits $5000/oz. The Plats are more interesting as a study because the story isn't told yet. The rarity factor and the potential melt could have a dramatic impact upon the Plat collector market when they happen. In the meantime, when monetary inflation shows up as consumer price inflation, all bets are off in both gold and platinum. I continue to believe that the odds are 50:50 that there may come a time when you won't even care about whether your 2008-W half ozer Burnished American Platinum Eagle is a bonafide modern rarity, because the price increase in platinum may dwarf the collector premium.
have we become a bit jaded with the mercurial rise of the 2008 Gold Buffs
No Miles, in fact I'm a bit delighted.
Guys...........watch those spot platinum prices.
We are at a 18 month high and a positive divergence from spot gold continues
2Sides, it is interesting that Kitco is reporting a platinum surplus just this morning.
I remember selling some 2000 1/4 oz. Unc Plats on ebay (around 2003) for around $160 each and thinking that I was making a real killing. Now, you can't find any 1/4 oz. Plat of any flavor on ebay for less than $475. Let's just try to keep things in perspective. This round of inflation is just starting, and our Plats will fare just fine.
Carry on.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times. >>
Yeah, what about the Plats as they continue to languish compared to the 2008-W AGE's and Buffalos yet are OK comapred to the 2006-W AGE's.
>>
Interesting things to point out.
The FS burnished plats are in a similar price point as the FS frac buffs once were... but the frac buffs have soared past current price of the FS burnished plats. There is no way it is all price point.
compare 2006W AGEs vs. 2008W AGEs
then compare the APEs to them.
(then you have to throw in comparisons of the First Strikes on top of that )
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times.
If you like the coins and can afford to hold them, then hold them. They will always be valuable and that is a relative term anyway. >>
right, and gold was once $250/oz not too long ago, and the buff fracs were bought for 1/4th what they are now.
We have lived through a few bubbles and are bubble wary.
<< <i>The rarity factor and the potential melt could have a dramatic impact upon the Plat collector market when they happen. >>
and jitters will remain until more meaningful price moves appear in the market.
<< <i>consumer price inflation >>
And what was the CPI during the commodity bubble? 3-4% a year? right. This is a conspiracy theory that I believe. The gov't massaged those numbers down and will continue to do so.
It's funny people consider inflation a "done deal", as if it's always going to happen under certain economic conditions. I'm no economist, but I think some things about the world have permanently change--and that may alter the traditional inflation scenarios.
The biggest thing is that there are TOO MANY PEOPLE on earth and not enough for us all to do. That fact alone is going to keep wages down, probably long beyond our own lifetimes. Like it or not, overpopulation has meant that each human life is worth less, and it doesn't really matter where we live, that's going to affect everything, including the cost of goods. Energy and a plunging dollar, of course, could ramp up prices a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if inflation never becomes an issue in the next few years. Just my two cents.
And as far as the buff prices, here's the thing that I think will keep them strong--they are just gorgeous coins that are fun to KEEP. People are more ambivalent about the plats, but even I like looking at the buffs more.
Grits, the debt clock is indisputable and the costs of servicing the debt is already baked into the cake. And that doesn't even touch upon the huge liability numbers that are categorized as unfunded liabilities in existing entitlement programs. And that doesn't even consider the additional huge expenses that congress is racking up daily with new *&$%@# programs.
Yes, it's a done deal, and so are higher, much higher taxes and cuts, big cuts in entitlement programs.
Like I said, the price increases in precious metals could dwarf any collector premium in the not-too-distant future, and that includes the rarest 2008 Plats, the scarcest 2008 AGEs and the 2008 fractional Gold Buffs.
Either way, I'd rather be an owner of any of them than not.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I'm not predicting prices for 08w gold buffalos, and the idea that there is a "model" is silly.
I'm not buying 4 coin sets at $10,000 and I doubt that those who do are doing it as a speculative investment. Anyone who purchased 08w buffalos from the Mint as a flip has done pretty well at this point, and there's no harm in taking some profit -- I agree with 7/8 only to the extent his comments can be construed as advocating prudence.
The biggest thing is that there are TOO MANY PEOPLE on earth and not enough for us all to do. That fact alone is going to keep wages down, probably long beyond our own lifetimes. Like it or not, overpopulation has meant that each human life is worth less, and it doesn't really matter where we live, that's going to affect everything, including the cost of goods. Energy and a plunging dollar, of course, could ramp up prices a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if inflation never becomes an issue in the next few years. Just my two cents.
Grits, I thought my life had meaning and worth but after reading that I want to "off" myself to reduce my carbon footprint, make room for another worker, and to please the god of mother earth.
<< <i>It's funny people consider inflation a "done deal", as if it's always going to happen under certain economic conditions. I'm no economist, but I think some things about the world have permanently change--and that may alter the traditional inflation scenarios. >>
There is the possibility and even in the USA has been deflation. It's not a done deal, however that's the way things have been unfolding and with "growth" many a economist will expect some inflation from the increased demand.
<< <i> Energy and a plunging dollar, of course, could ramp up prices a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if inflation never becomes an issue in the next few years. Just my two cents. >>
And that is why I posted the link to the CPI data, and was foolish enough to admit that I think the gov't is massaging the inflation numbers down. "Energy prices" did what up to about mid-2007? Food was going crazy then, too. Take a look at the gov't figures: -0.4% in 2009, 3.8% in 2008, 2.8%, 3.2%, 3.4%, 2.7% in 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004 respectively.
It doesn't make sense. (where's the huge run-up ... the so called "gas price tax" eating at our spending power? where is the 50% decline in oil?)
"done deal" ? Not to me. (and this ties into models... models fail.)
"baked in" ? Did any bubble "bake in" all reality? No.
Markets will see what they want and ignore what they want... all when they want. This is part of what makes calling the tops of bubbles hard.
""When is the market going to wake up?""
Is the dollar overvalued or is the national debt already baked in? The tricky part of that question is "overvalued compared to what?" We have tons of money piling into US treasuries right now because of the recent ec. meltdowns and also now because of the continuation of it as seen in Greece. Talking heads on CNBC are calling the US treasuries market as "in a bubble." So.... the market is current valuing US treasuries... are they then going to pummel the US dollar and buy what? Gold and other PMs maybe? Well, those went up in the commodity bubble and they are up strong from their recent lows. Countries are already nervous at these levels. Is it going higher from here? Who knows. So.... here we sit.
<< <i>And as far as the buff prices, here's the thing that I think will keep them strong--they are just gorgeous coins that are fun to KEEP. People are more ambivalent about the plats, but even I like looking at the buffs more. >>
exactly... I think their general performance is strong due to the design. And the fractionals surge also due to the scarcity. And don't forget we think they are in a bubble. But, we'll see where it goes.
<< <i>I'm not predicting prices for 08w gold buffalos, and the idea that there is a "model" is silly.
I'm not buying 4 coin sets at $10,000 and I doubt that those who do are doing it as a speculative investment. Anyone who purchased 08w buffalos from the Mint as a flip has done pretty well at this point, and there's no harm in taking some profit -- I agree with 7/8 only to the extent his comments can be construed as advocating prudence. >>
I don't like the model idea either.
Models got us into this economic mess. Models are human made simplifications of much more complex phenomenon.
Follow a "model" at your own risk.
I also agree with 7/8 only to that extent as well. I'm still thinking bubble... (or is that a model we're so used to seeing lately that it's getting misapplied here? Maybe, maybe not.)
<< <i>The biggest thing is that there are TOO MANY PEOPLE on earth and not enough for us all to do. That fact alone is going to keep wages down, probably long beyond our own lifetimes. Like it or not, overpopulation has meant that each human life is worth less, and it doesn't really matter where we live, that's going to affect everything, including the cost of goods. Energy and a plunging dollar, of course, could ramp up prices a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if inflation never becomes an issue in the next few years. Just my two cents.
Grits, I thought my life had meaning and worth but after reading that I want to "off" myself to reduce my carbon footprint, make room for another worker, and to please the god of mother earth.
R95 >>
Please don't do that Renman. Do you know how much fossil fuels are burned to make new coffins, and especially to cremate people?
And I always do love hearing other folks' analyses of the state of the world. Keep 'em coming!
<< <i>Speaking of "Mint Intentions", maybe Eric or others can answer this query:
What has happened with the mint intention to produce the UHR in Palladium??
I miss the high-relief passion now that the Gold UHR has gone to the secondary market and continues to rise a bit.
Miles >>
Me, too, but that's just a function of the Ultra High Mintage (the UHR's UHM). It's a shame, really, because it is such a stunning coin.
As for palladium, ask my senator Max Baucus, who seems to be the big instigator behind this idea since palladium is mined here in Montana. I hate to seem them cannibalize the UHR design for this. Why not an original design with some real aspirations at beauty?
Comments
Wondercoin
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
Wondercoin
<< <i>OK. I'm trying to wrap my simple little mind around a recent thought...If a true "type" collector collects by design, denomination & composition; wouldn't the 2004 plat be a lower mintage than the 2008--if you add the burnished and proofs? >>
Most collect by type in either mint state or proof form. Some collect both. If you dont define proof and mint state as separate types then the matte proof saints for example are dirt common as type coins.
<< <i>
<< <i>OK. I'm trying to wrap my simple little mind around a recent thought...If a true "type" collector collects by design, denomination & composition; wouldn't the 2004 plat be a lower mintage than the 2008--if you add the burnished and proofs? >>
Most collect by type in either mint state or proof form. Some collect both. If you dont define proof and mint state as separate types then the matte proof saints for example are dirt common as type coins. >>
However, the PCGS Registry has 50 type set categories by design or denomination and 39 don't differentiate between proof & business strike. So, I'm just not sure how significant the burnished low mintage will be to the type collector???
Thats one of the beautiful things about coins, people can collect what they like in the form or structure they like. The question is what will most people do? Thats one of the big questions about the plats. What will be the ultimate typical set form? Are the plat fractionals going to be collected as 12 coin proof sets or 16-18 member type sets?
We shall see if we live a while.
Eric
And also in agreement are two major market makers in Moderns ....SELLING....in full page ads over the last two weeks in CW
It is time.
Buffalo's have hit the ceiling and are bouncing off, once the EBAY market tips, it'll be all downhill.
Not to say they wont stabilize at reasonable levels - some people take my comments way out of context (Half) and try to "edit" what I say.....I'm not saying that we will see USM issue prices, or even close to them, but 3x issue for raws isn't an unreasonable stabilization point for the rarer coins (not the 1 oz proof or any 1/2 oz coins)
The only problem is - the only place you will get those prices is on EBAY........
Dealers are paying NOWHERE near those levels. Just look at the greysheet.
If the gold buffalo coins are so overpriced as you claim then the silver commemoratives must be as well, yet after 9 years they have not fallen back to what one would assume based on the "model".
The model is only a model for a reason, anyway I am glad I bought the coins and went with my own "model". You sold way too early, sometimes it is better to go with the collateral evidence.
We are at a 18 month high and a positive divergence from spot gold continues.
For those who bought US Mint platinum products in fall of 2008 there has been a double in base metal value.
The ones that didn't sell are BIN with high prices.
I'm actually not seeing may for sale. I think they are drying up as the inventory has been depleted.
<< <i> I never worry about my holdings, I've rarely been hurt in any mint offerings - and have stayed away from the pure bs offerings....like Washington Covers, remember those?
7/8 >>
Hey I remember those and thought you bought those BS Washington Covers?
Let me check...Yup you said:
>>
Not impressed, although some convinced me to buy 100, so i'll take my couple hundered dollar profit and run >>
IIRC, you sold during a flood, I sold my last 100 about a month or so after you for $4,500, which beats your few hundy by about 3K...
First of all, how do you know what i hold or when i sold?
Your problem is the eurphoria you are caught up in - believing that these coins will continue to grow in value.
If you take the time to "model" any modern commems or new issues, you will realize that many things affect how quickly a coin reacts/how fast is it's growth; does it retain it's growth, stabilize and move from there - or drop back, etc etc etc.
Most popular issues follow the "immediate pop" in value and subsequent run-up, then the "drop" in value to stabilize at a level - plateau - then rarity takes over and over time it may grow again, depending on rarity, demand and PRICE. Remember, the fateful $5,000 price tag and above, that's tough territory.
These coins are overpriced. You dont want to belive it, but they are. At current levels, raw or otherwise, I do not want to own any 1 oz proof 08-w Buff's, any 1/2 oz 08-w buffs (these are the dogs of the series), and even the 1/4's are overpriced - especially the proofs.
There are literally 100's if not more coins being offered by 2 major dealers right now at today's prices - and that doesnt help your argument.
These major dealers were in deep acquisition mode for many months prior, as you might imagine, the tide has turned and they are in sales mode.
Let the buyer beware. You see many knowledgable forum members in "sell" mode right now - hold at your own risk.
Check and see what you can get for those covers now..............they are sh&t, just like I said then.
I'm glad you had good luck in those. You timed it right.
I had very good luck in 2006/2007 and 2008 in many other issues. I'm sure you did too. I just dont discuss how good. That's up for you to guess.
Typically you will see a 30% drop in prices after a huge run up in value such as these Buffs have experienced.
Will you see a 30% drop here, maybe not, but it's not out of the question.
The reason coins have a pop followed by a selloff is initially the coins seem to be trading on a relative mintage. Once all the coins are released and demand declines they trade more on the actual mintage, that is how it seems to me. If the actual mintage is too high then all of the premium gets wiped out
As I said though let's see the model that accurately predicts the silver 2001 buffalo commemorative pricing. Does anyone have that?
I don't think so because if they had that I doubt they would be saying the gold buffalo are overpriced. And I am talking the raw prices only.
The normal model does not work with these coins just like the model did not work with the platinum coins in the short-term. Some thought the platinum coins, the unc w 2008 coins would be far higher than they are today right? What happened?
I think in order to model the gold buffalo coins we would have to adjust the actual mintage down to an apparent mintage, something much less than it is today in order to compare to other modern series. I base that on the silver 2001 buffalo commemoratives.
If that models well then the prices for the gold buffalos would be higher than you are guessing.
However if anyone thinks the prices are too high then sell sell sell. But if prices go higher than they are [which is possible and probably likely as long as the mint pumps out 1 ouncers like they are] then don't be surprised by the higher prices. There is more demand than for a normal mint issue, and that is dropping the apparent mintage to something less than we realize.
<< <i>So half the what you trie to say is the buffalo is overprice and they going to stay like that because just the model...? >>
It's possible based on the comparison to the 2001 silver buffalo commemorative pricing.
Using the 2001 Buff Dollar as a comparison against the whole gold buff series is rediculous - the only thing in common is the design.
The silver buff dollar is only there (6x issue) because of price point. It is was issued at $75 per coin, it would not sell for $450. Its all about price point.
$165-$180 is reasonable.
And I did not sell all my buffalo's.......
<< <i>
<< <i>So half the what you trie to say is the buffalo is overprice and they going to stay like that because just the model...? >>
It's possible based on the comparison to the 2001 silver buffalo commemorative pricing. >>
I concur with the possibility.
<< <i>... the only thing in common is the design.
The silver buff dollar is only there (6x issue) because of price point. It is was issued at $75 per coin, it would not sell for $450. Its all about price point.
$165-$180 is reasonable.
And I did not sell all my buffalo's....... >>
it's not only price point or everything would be one low, low price.
and that common design is one really major factor in making both of them so popular. I would also imagine it helps that the fractionals (at least) are one year only (so far), and they are 24k helps, too.
Are you thinking that the "deal" at the mint and with Congress legislating "no making fractionals" is to sell the more expensive ones? The smaller ones are more readily bought due to the price and thus your saying the 1/2oz is the dog of them?
if a popular design and highly "demanded" coin that has inflated to 5-6x issue but yet is still at a "affordable" level to most collectors (the price point) - it tends to hold it's value at a high multiple to issue price.
coins priced in the $100-$500 range are highly affordable. coins priced over $1000 are far less affordable to the average collector. coins priced over $5000 are usually reserved for the advanced collector. demand at each hurdle drops substantially.
7/8 I think you missed the analogy, it seems the silver buffalo prices should not be there, but they are.
Why are they there then?
Because of the design, the same design on the gold buffalos.
If it was almost any other design those coins would sell for $35, but instead they sell for much higher.
So if those sell for much higher, then the gold buffalo coins should not be underestimated.
There are a lot less 2008 w gold buffalo coins than there are silver buffalo coins. If they are paying a decent premium for the silver ones then it only makes sense the gold ones at a mintage of 1/10 to 1/20 will be worth a lot more than you expect.
What about the plats??
Proof and burnished??
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times.
<< <i>Enough with the buffalos...........
What about the plats??
Proof and burnished??
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times. >>
Yeah, what about the Plats as they continue to languish compared to the 2008-W AGE's and Buffalos yet are OK comapred to the 2006-W AGE's.
If they made the Spouses in Platinum , you think there would be a better, same, or worse secondary market??
Granted, Platinum is higher in price but seemingly, regardless of mintage, less sought after.
I wish it was different as I hold the low mintage Plat years, but the market continues to speak on behalf of the Gold.
Or, have we become a bit jaded with the mercurial rise of the 2008 Gold Buffs, comparitively speaking, expecting the super low-mintage Plats to do the same.
I watched the 2006 Anniversary issues rise and subsequently fall, as the "model" dictates; yet, the Buffs continue to ascend with no drastic fall, yet.
I will hold my meager stash as the Gold Buffalos are one of my favorite designs along with the Platinum Liberty/Eagles.
I feel fortunate I was attracted to both.
Miles
It's your friend from Asia again....
Question: Has anyone thought about reholdering a few of their Modern 69/70 Sets with the new PCGS Secure Plus thingy? The new holders do look rather flashy...
JCoin
If anyone is coming to South East Asia lemme know......
May sound like a stupid question.... does anyone know of any famous celebrities/sportsmen/politicians/royalty who collect Moderns..... I once saw on ebay some 2006-W Buffalo Proofs graded NGC PF70 with a Kareem Abdul Jaabar Pedigree........
JCoin
<< <i>May sound like a stupid question.... does anyone know of any famous celebrities/sportsmen/politicians/royalty who collect Moderns..... I once saw on ebay some 2006-W Buffalo Proofs graded NGC PF70 with a Kareem Abdul Jaabar Pedigree........ >>
Are you sure you don't have him confused with someone else?
Roger Murdock maybe?
<< <i>Yo Guys and Gals!
It's your friend from Asia again....
Question: Has anyone thought about reholdering a few of their Modern 69/70 Sets with the new PCGS Secure Plus thingy? The new holders do look rather flashy...
If anyone is coming to South East Asia lemme know...... >>
First, no First Strike.
Then they don't do the plus for the 69s nor 70s
Then there is the added expense, time, and potential reholdering trouble even if you don't care about the plus.
I might consider it if they add the magic FS label.
(where in SE asia?)
Proof and burnished??
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times.
To be sure, there doesn't seem to be as much market activity in Plats, but I don't understand all the anxiety. The 4-coin sets are selling for double what they were initially re-selling for on ebay. What did everyone really expect? And besides, it's hardly the end game.
I also do not understand all of this back & forth about whether the Gold Buffs are overpriced and due for a tumble or whether the Plats will be the ultimate winners because of rarity. This isn't a stock market situation having $7.00 trades that are instantly executable. There are only two times that the pricing is important, and 50% of the important decisions were made when we decided to buy. The other important decision is when we decide to sell. Are you selling? No? Then what's the issue? If the price of the Gold Buffs has met your expectation, then sell. If you like the coins and can afford to hold them, then hold them. They will always be valuable and that is a relative term anyway.
As far as I'm concerned, with the Gold Buffs the cards are on the table. They are highly sought and will keep a nice premium until gold hits $5000/oz. The Plats are more interesting as a study because the story isn't told yet. The rarity factor and the potential melt could have a dramatic impact upon the Plat collector market when they happen. In the meantime, when monetary inflation shows up as consumer price inflation, all bets are off in both gold and platinum. I continue to believe that the odds are 50:50 that there may come a time when you won't even care about whether your 2008-W half ozer Burnished American Platinum Eagle is a bonafide modern rarity, because the price increase in platinum may dwarf the collector premium.
have we become a bit jaded with the mercurial rise of the 2008 Gold Buffs
No Miles, in fact I'm a bit delighted.
Guys...........watch those spot platinum prices.
We are at a 18 month high and a positive divergence from spot gold continues
2Sides, it is interesting that Kitco is reporting a platinum surplus just this morning.
47% platinum surplus
I remember selling some 2000 1/4 oz. Unc Plats on ebay (around 2003) for around $160 each and thinking that I was making a real killing. Now, you can't find any 1/4 oz. Plat of any flavor on ebay for less than $475. Let's just try to keep things in perspective. This round of inflation is just starting, and our Plats will fare just fine.
Carry on.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Enough with the buffalos...........
What about the plats??
Proof and burnished??
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times. >>
Yeah, what about the Plats as they continue to languish compared to the 2008-W AGE's and Buffalos yet are OK comapred to the 2006-W AGE's.
>>
Interesting things to point out.
The FS burnished plats are in a similar price point as the FS frac buffs once were... but the frac buffs have soared past current price of the FS burnished plats. There is no way it is all price point.
compare 2006W AGEs vs. 2008W AGEs
then compare the APEs to them.
(then you have to throw in comparisons of the First Strikes on top of that )
<< <i>What about the plats??
Proof and burnished??
Another melt down and there are going to be some real interesting times.
If you like the coins and can afford to hold them, then hold them. They will always be valuable and that is a relative term anyway. >>
right, and gold was once $250/oz not too long ago, and the buff fracs were bought for 1/4th what they are now.
We have lived through a few bubbles and are bubble wary.
<< <i>The rarity factor and the potential melt could have a dramatic impact upon the Plat collector market when they happen. >>
and jitters will remain until more meaningful price moves appear in the market.
<< <i>consumer price inflation >>
And what was the CPI during the commodity bubble? 3-4% a year? right. This is a conspiracy theory that I believe. The gov't massaged those numbers down and will continue to do so.
The biggest thing is that there are TOO MANY PEOPLE on earth and not enough for us all to do. That fact alone is going to keep wages down, probably long beyond our own lifetimes. Like it or not, overpopulation has meant that each human life is worth less, and it doesn't really matter where we live, that's going to affect everything, including the cost of goods. Energy and a plunging dollar, of course, could ramp up prices a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if inflation never becomes an issue in the next few years. Just my two cents.
And as far as the buff prices, here's the thing that I think will keep them strong--they are just gorgeous coins that are fun to KEEP. People are more ambivalent about the plats, but even I like looking at the buffs more.
Yes, it's a done deal, and so are higher, much higher taxes and cuts, big cuts in entitlement programs.
Like I said, the price increases in precious metals could dwarf any collector premium in the not-too-distant future, and that includes the rarest 2008 Plats, the scarcest 2008 AGEs and the 2008 fractional Gold Buffs.
Either way, I'd rather be an owner of any of them than not.
I knew it would happen.
Guys...........watch those spot platinum prices.
We are at a 18 month high and a positive divergence from spot gold continues
2Sides, it is interesting that Kitco is reporting a platinum surplus just this morning.
47% platinum surplus
.............................................................................................................................................................
Whith chinese auto sales booming and physical platinum going into ETF surplus may shrink relatively fast.
Real wild card is production.
Africa can be a very unpredictable place.
I'm not predicting prices for 08w gold buffalos, and the idea that there is a "model" is silly.
I'm not buying 4 coin sets at $10,000 and I doubt that those who do are doing it as a speculative investment. Anyone who purchased 08w buffalos from the Mint as a flip has done pretty well at this point, and there's no harm in taking some profit -- I agree with 7/8 only to the extent his comments can be construed as advocating prudence.
<< <i>
The biggest thing is that there are TOO MANY PEOPLE on earth and not enough for us all to do. That fact alone is going to keep wages down, probably long beyond our own lifetimes. Like it or not, overpopulation has meant that each human life is worth less, and it doesn't really matter where we live, that's going to affect everything, including the cost of goods. Energy and a plunging dollar, of course, could ramp up prices a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if inflation never becomes an issue in the next few years. Just my two cents.
Grits, I thought my life had meaning and worth but after reading that I want to "off" myself to reduce my carbon footprint, make room for another worker, and to please the god of mother earth.
R95
<< <i>It's funny people consider inflation a "done deal", as if it's always going to happen under certain economic conditions. I'm no economist, but I think some things about the world have permanently change--and that may alter the traditional inflation scenarios. >>
There is the possibility and even in the USA has been deflation. It's not a done deal, however that's the way things have been unfolding and with "growth" many a economist will expect some inflation from the increased demand.
<< <i> Energy and a plunging dollar, of course, could ramp up prices a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if inflation never becomes an issue in the next few years. Just my two cents. >>
And that is why I posted the link to the CPI data, and was foolish enough to admit that I think the gov't is massaging the inflation numbers down. "Energy prices" did what up to about mid-2007? Food was going crazy then, too. Take a look at the gov't figures: -0.4% in 2009, 3.8% in 2008, 2.8%, 3.2%, 3.4%, 2.7% in 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004 respectively.
It doesn't make sense. (where's the huge run-up ... the so called "gas price tax" eating at our spending power? where is the 50% decline in oil?)
"done deal" ? Not to me. (and this ties into models... models fail.)
"baked in" ? Did any bubble "bake in" all reality? No.
Markets will see what they want and ignore what they want... all when they want. This is part of what makes calling the tops of bubbles hard.
""When is the market going to wake up?""
Is the dollar overvalued or is the national debt already baked in? The tricky part of that question is "overvalued compared to what?" We have tons of money piling into US treasuries right now because of the recent ec. meltdowns and also now because of the continuation of it as seen in Greece. Talking heads on CNBC are calling the US treasuries market as "in a bubble." So.... the market is current valuing US treasuries... are they then going to pummel the US dollar and buy what? Gold and other PMs maybe? Well, those went up in the commodity bubble and they are up strong from their recent lows. Countries are already nervous at these levels. Is it going higher from here? Who knows. So.... here we sit.
<< <i>And as far as the buff prices, here's the thing that I think will keep them strong--they are just gorgeous coins that are fun to KEEP. People are more ambivalent about the plats, but even I like looking at the buffs more. >>
exactly... I think their general performance is strong due to the design. And the fractionals surge also due to the scarcity. And don't forget we think they are in a bubble. But, we'll see where it goes.
<< <i>I'm not predicting prices for 08w gold buffalos, and the idea that there is a "model" is silly.
I'm not buying 4 coin sets at $10,000 and I doubt that those who do are doing it as a speculative investment. Anyone who purchased 08w buffalos from the Mint as a flip has done pretty well at this point, and there's no harm in taking some profit -- I agree with 7/8 only to the extent his comments can be construed as advocating prudence. >>
I don't like the model idea either.
Models got us into this economic mess. Models are human made simplifications of much more complex phenomenon.
Follow a "model" at your own risk.
I also agree with 7/8 only to that extent as well. I'm still thinking bubble... (or is that a model we're so used to seeing lately that it's getting misapplied here? Maybe, maybe not.)
<< <i>I'm not buying 4 coin sets at $10,000 and I doubt that those who do are doing it as a speculative investment. >>
It certainly won't be speculative after the prices come down.
Seriously, I'm not sure how many are or are not... but greed can overcome the senses of people. There is the "greater fool theory" to show for that.
<< <i>The biggest thing is that there are TOO MANY PEOPLE on earth and not enough for us all to do. That fact alone is going to keep wages down, probably long beyond our own lifetimes. Like it or not, overpopulation has meant that each human life is worth less, and it doesn't really matter where we live, that's going to affect everything, including the cost of goods. Energy and a plunging dollar, of course, could ramp up prices a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if inflation never becomes an issue in the next few years. Just my two cents.
Grits, I thought my life had meaning and worth but after reading that I want to "off" myself to reduce my carbon footprint, make room for another worker, and to please the god of mother earth.
R95 >>
Please don't do that Renman. Do you know how much fossil fuels are burned to make new coffins, and especially to cremate people?
And I always do love hearing other folks' analyses of the state of the world. Keep 'em coming!
Miles
What has happened with the mint intention to produce the UHR in Palladium??
I miss the high-relief passion now that the Gold UHR has gone to the secondary market and continues to rise a bit.
Miles
<< <i>Speaking of "Mint Intentions", maybe Eric or others can answer this query:
What has happened with the mint intention to produce the UHR in Palladium??
I miss the high-relief passion now that the Gold UHR has gone to the secondary market and continues to rise a bit.
Miles >>
Me, too, but that's just a function of the Ultra High Mintage (the UHR's UHM). It's a shame, really, because it is such a stunning coin.
As for palladium, ask my senator Max Baucus, who seems to be the big instigator behind this idea since palladium is mined here in Montana. I hate to seem them cannibalize the UHR design for this. Why not an original design with some real aspirations at beauty?
<< <i>Speaking of "Mint Intentions", maybe Eric or others can answer this query:
What has happened with the mint intention to produce the UHR in Palladium??
I miss the high-relief passion now that the Gold UHR has gone to the secondary market and continues to rise a bit.
Miles >>
The what I love to see is buffalos al denomination