I did not make that call KP did. I did not choose the title of the book either. Almost everything in the text was purely my work with a few grammar edits but they are in charge of all marketing aspects including the cover, title and picture arrangement. Based on the draft I looked at last week they did a good job. I think all you guys will be pleased. A LOAD of data!
There are really too many threads about the Big One now that I felt it better to post my questions here, particularly since they relate to Moderns:
1. What happens to a Modern 68 coin with Pop 1? Does it mean I have to wait until the population increases and then submit for REGRADE to see if it qualifies for 68+?
2. Do you see the price of Modern 69's and 70's increasing significantly because so many just want to take the PLUS+++ issue out of play?
I sent an email to BJ Searls asking if a free TrueView image would be rolled in with the Secure Plus Service (I thought it made sense since they are going to scan the whole coin) - the answer was NO - USD20 extra please..........
There are really too many threads about the Big One now that I felt it better to post my questions here, particularly since they relate to Moderns:
1. What happens to a Modern 68 coin with Pop 1? Does it mean I have to wait until the population increases and then submit for REGRADE to see if it qualifies for 68+?
2. Do you see the price of Modern 69's and 70's increasing significantly because so many just want to take the PLUS+++ issue out of play?
I sent an email to BJ Searls asking if a free TrueView image would be rolled in with the Secure Plus Service (I thought it made sense since they are going to scan the whole coin) - the answer was NO - USD20 extra please..........
JCoin >>
Now I am confused. The NGC website has a press release stating:
"Aspects of the service offered by NGC and PCGS are similar. The plus designation applies only to US coins from select classic series, and it is not currently planned to be applied to modern coinage issues."
Huh? But if you go to the PCGS Population Report and Price Guide they have already created spaces for plus designated coins whether they be classic, modern, bullion, world, commemorative or whatever?
To answer your question, I just pasted this from the response thread and it came directly from Willis: "PCGS Secure Plus is for US and World coins."
Do you see the price of Modern 69's and 70's increasing significantly because so many just want to take the PLUS+++ issue out of play?
To answer your other question, I personally don't think that the price of 69s and 70s will benefit directly from this new policy (especially moderns). The majority of precious metal based moderns grade between 69 and 70 anyways (and 68 and below are not even desirable for most).
Guys, KP took our moderns book (and thats what it is not just Eric Jordan's) through one more edit cycle to make every reasonable effort to perfect it so we lost three weeks. They have done a beautiful job. The pictures and presentation are first class and I honestly think those that like modern design base collecting and all eagles and buffalo issues will be VERY pleased. We can place the book on the table and say these are the beautiful coins we collect and these are the reasons that they will become great classics. And by the way you may wish to join us before it gets too expensive to join the party. There are a few times in life when patience is not a virtue and these coins right now are one of them.
I think you will see a dramatic improvement in KPs US Coin Digest in the 2012 addition. If they keep their current interest and effort level they may become the modern guys red book and as our ranks continue to grow every bodies Red Book....
The buffs really are just incredible. They keep going up with no end in sight. Of course, if The Mint ever announces that they'll do buff fractionals again, they'll take a big hit. Keep or sell......
I don't know where I posted this, but I did have an Unc Set and a Proof Set for sale about a month ago on BST, in the $6,000 range for either. Should I be glad that they didn't sell? They're both up $2,000 from where I would have sold them. Unless you need the money, why sell now? Until the Mint comes up with a "killer coin" in a precious metal that doesn't sell many in spite of being a killer coin, the Gold Buffs will probably remain predominant. When I say predominant, I mean that they will elbow their way into the collecting sphere elite section and stay there. What always makes something like this work is that ***nobody*** buys as many as they "should have bought" when they were being sold.
Remember that most of these issues cost a premium up over 30% when they are issued, and that's already a hard pill to swallow. A desireable Modern happens in the heat of the moment, when the Modern market is feeling tired and over-worked from too many issues, soaking up every last dime that collectors, investors, dealers and speculators can throw at the market. Right now, I don't see another situation like that in the works unless for some reason the Gold Spouses or the Silver Hockey Puck Dinner Plate Series really takes off.
The Mint has no consistancy in it's management, and their policies are never predictable. The economy plays a part, to be sure. When demand for Mint products falls off a cliff, what previously looked like a small mintage might suddenly begin to look normal again. Look ahead and take your best shot. It sure beats the stock market playing with bogus paper assets.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>The buffs really are just incredible. They keep going up with no end in sight. Of course, if The Mint ever announces that they'll do buff fractionals again, they'll take a big hit. Keep or sell...... >>
Not necessarily. The 2008-W one-ounce buffs are doing very well even though the series continues to be struck.
I think the lack of gold planchets and the demand caused the 2008 W Buffalo Set to be minted at so low numbers. It could happen again with the one ouncer in future issues. I don't understand the mentality of the collector mind paying 4 times over issue price. The economy today is probably just as worse as it was in 08, yet collectors are buying these up. The $5, $10 and $25 are the unique coins more so than the $50 even though it is the key for the one ouncers.
<< <i>If you want to get a bit nostalgic and see what the set was priced a few months ago, check out the last question asked by a potential buyer in the
$8200 Buff Proof Set spoken of earlier in this post:
<< <i>I think the lack of gold planchets and the demand caused the 2008 W Buffalo Set to be minted at so low numbers. It could happen again with the one ouncer in future issues. I don't understand the mentality of the collector mind paying 4 times over issue price. The economy today is probably just as worse as it was in 08, yet collectors are buying these up. The $5, $10 and $25 are the unique coins more so than the $50 even though it is the key for the one ouncers. >>
There was no planchet problem in 2008. Everyone was free to order as many of the buffalos as they wanted. They sold out much sooner than anyone expected however. That might have been due to the low demand at that time.
<< <i>If you want to get a bit nostalgic and see what the set was priced a few months ago, check out the last question asked by a potential buyer in the
$8200 Buff Proof Set spoken of earlier in this post:
The risks of "higher" mintage gold eagle moderns as seen here...
A fresh group of 1988 $25 Gold Eagles recently gets submitted to PCGS (45,000 total mintage on this coin)...
What was a pop 5 coin after 22 years of grading (PCGS-MS70) becomes pop 25 now virtually overnight!
An example of why I am personally a fan of lower mintage moderns (roughly sub-20,000 and even more excited at sub-12,500) and somewhat careful on many of the higher mintage coins.
I will be addressing these types of issues in much greater detail over on Coinfacts.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
The ugly truth is that the "gold rush" is over. The US Mint screwed up a great series and tosses out a bunch of setless gold coins, mere remnants of a great series.
At least when I acquired mt 70's it was before the recent 70's "flood" so I suspect I'm sitting on MS70+s across the board.
Can anyone give me price guidance on a Raw 2008 W Gold Buffalo 1/4 oz $10. It seem the prices are all over the place. The only place I know is to look at Ebay and there are only 3 past auctions.
I believe that unless mandated by law the mint wishes to avoid low volume issues.
For US Mint the combined lesson from 2008-2009 was that you can make just as much money with a few high mintage items(2009 platinum, buffalo and UHR) as you could make from a diverse multitute of lower mintage items such as the various fractionals. The same profit with far less production and inventory problems.
I suspect they would gladly dump the First Spouse coins except they are mandated by law.
>> A fresh group of 1988 $25 Gold Eagles recently gets submitted to PCGS (45,000 total mintage on this coin)...
What was a pop 5 coin after 22 years of grading (PCGS-MS70) becomes pop 25 now virtually overnight!
An example of why I am personally a fan of lower mintage moderns (roughly sub-20,000 and even more excited at sub-12,500) and somewhat careful on many of the higher mintage coins.<<
An example of why I am personally a fan of MS69 and raw lower mintage moderns.
<< <i>If you want to get a bit nostalgic and see what the set was priced a few months ago, check out the last question asked by a potential buyer in the
$8200 Buff Proof Set spoken of earlier in this post:
Once again, I thought the top would be somewhat reminescent of the 2004 Plat Proof Set, around $5000.
Otherwise, there has been no model from which to base the potential on this set. Yet.......
Miles >>
I have an Unc set for $12,500 if anyone is interested? Wait, maybe I should make that $15,000? The way things are going, that should be tapped in another month or so. Does this sound like it's topped out?
I don't know where I posted this, but I did have an Unc Set and a Proof Set for sale about a month ago on BST, in the $6,000 range for either. Should I be glad that they didn't sell? They're both up $2,000 from where I would have sold them. Unless you need the money, why sell now? Until the Mint comes up with a "killer coin" in a precious metal that doesn't sell many in spite of being a killer coin, the Gold Buffs will probably remain predominant. When I say predominant, I mean that they will elbow their way into the collecting sphere elite section and stay there. What always makes something like this work is that ***nobody*** buys as many as they "should have bought" when they were being sold.
Remember that most of these issues cost a premium up over 30% when they are issued, and that's already a hard pill to swallow. A desireable Modern happens in the heat of the moment, when the Modern market is feeling tired and over-worked from too many issues, soaking up every last dime that collectors, investors, dealers and speculators can throw at the market. Right now, I don't see another situation like that in the works unless for some reason the Gold Spouses or the Silver Hockey Puck Dinner Plate Series really takes off.
The Mint has no consistancy in it's management, and their policies are never predictable. The economy plays a part, to be sure. When demand for Mint products falls off a cliff, what previously looked like a small mintage might suddenly begin to look normal again. Look ahead and take your best shot. It sure beats the stock market playing with bogus paper assets. >>
jmski52-
Very insightful. Fantastic post.
BTW, did you all see the 2008 w gold buff NGC ER Proof 70 set which sold on the 30th for $9000?
Where will they stop? The rate of increase of these is simply astounding. Have you all seen such a trajectory in any other modern?
<< <i>The buffs really are just incredible. They keep going up with no end in sight. Of course, if The Mint ever announces that they'll do buff fractionals again, they'll take a big hit. Keep or sell...... >>
Not necessarily. The 2008-W one-ounce buffs are doing very well even though the series continues to be struck. >>
Good observation Overdate.
I've thought about this. I have assumed that a lot of the appeal - and value - of the 08 one ounce is that it is part of an (at least to this point) unique set which includes fractionals.
Can anyone give me price guidance on a Raw 2008 W Gold Buffalo 1/4 oz $10. It seem the prices are all over the place. The only place I know is to look at Ebay and there are only 3 past auctions.
Unc? or Proof?
I track every ebay sale I can find, for every grade and TPG category of the 2008-W Gold Buffs. It's best to look at all the data at once, because so many categories can result in discontinuity in the analysis if you don't look at it all together.
The Uncs are still in a price climb. Don't sell. Anything less than a 70, which means - in the box, PCGS MS-69, NGC MS-69, or raw - all of these categories are (still) in a parabolic pattern. By that, I mean that the progression from $600 or so to $1,400/$1,800 or so has not had any retracements. I would expect that when this one hits the ceiling, it will drop about 30%. That's no reason to sell early.
The Proofs are a bit more orderly. Don't sell. Here, the price progression doesn't seem to be as steep but the progression is just as relentless. The "anything less than a 70" category has gone from around $900 to somewhere around $1,500 over the same few months.
The difference between NGC-70 vs. PCGS-70 is all over the map. Nevertheless, PCGS-70 coins in the Gold Buffs seem to be the ones that hit the record prices. Still, the NGC-70 coins carry significant premiums as well.
The difference between 69 vs. 70 is usually quite significant. I'd venture a guess that the difference amounts to between 80% and 120% between the grades. Sometimes, it is hard to tell because I just noticed an NGC-69 leapfrog over the previous ANACS-70 price by 60%. That might simply be because there are fewer ANACS coins in the market and that particular data point might be old.
The only reason I can think of to sell would be - if you have multiples and simply want to test the market - stick your toe in the water, as it were. You might get lucky and sell just before a correction. Yeah, just maybe.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
If anyone has a PCGS Secure Plus holder with a First Strike Designated coin I would sure love to see how PCGS squeezes everything on the label..............the American flag and date would surely bump into the shield......?
Those 2006-2008 mintage numbers are fixed but surviving numbers can only go down................. >>
The first to go will likely be the non-W bullion coins, like the one in the above auction.
I think it will take a somewhat higher price to send the W-uncirculated plats to the smelters (except maybe the 2007s), especially since the population of these coins has already been diminished by the previous melts when platinum reached $2000+.
The first to go will likely be the non-W bullion coins, like the one in the above auction.
I agree that the first to go will be the non-w bullion coins... As small as the population of platinum guys is, the population of non-w collectors is an even smaller subset. Perhaps a time will come when non-w bullion plats will be appreciated, but I think it's a long way down the road. Collect what you want, but as an investment I just don't see the non-ws as a winner.
I think it will take a somewhat higher price to send the W-uncirculated plats to the smelters (except maybe the 2007s), especially since the population of these coins has already been diminished by the previous melts when platinum reached $2000+.
Some quantity of them (we're talking 2006 and 2007, since the 2008s were mostly purchased when platinum was at $900 an ounce), were reportedly sold as bullion but it's almost impossible to determine surviving population. My guess is that only a small percentage of 2006 and 2007 w coins were actually rendered uncollectable. I think that perspectives have changed since early 2008. We've seen platinum rally to $2300, plummet to $800, mass layoffs and a recession, the end of the plat w unc program and a collector market that, so far at least, doesn't really care.
I think if platinum crests to the 1800-2000 range, we'll see more sales of raw and MS69 coins effectively at melt. Anyone who bought 2008 plats in Oct/Nov are already in a reasonable profit position at $1600 an ounce, and with the collector market as soft as it is, might decide to exit for greener investment opportunities. 2006 ws were being sold at melt when platinum was $2000+, and they fell hard in 2008. The initial excitement over the platinum w-uncs has passed, and it would not surprise me to see those with quantities sell them into a decent platinum rally.
Those 2006-2008 mintage numbers are fixed but surviving numbers can only go down................. >>
The first to go will likely be the non-W bullion coins, like the one in the above auction.
I think it will take a somewhat higher price to send the W-uncirculated plats to the smelters (except maybe the 2007s), especially since the population of these coins has already been diminished by the previous melts when platinum reached $2000+. >>
I agree on the 2007s and here is where it gets interesting..............
During the 2008 spike I scraped out 20 of the 2007-W 4 coin sets both proof and unc/burnished.
The 2007-W 1/2 oz proofs were dead money with the large number of anniversary sets and the 1 oz slugs were just too tempting at $1900+ in march of 2008 when I had just bought them for 1/3 less in dec. 2007!!
I kept the 1/10th and 1/4th as I figured my 4 month profit let me keep them at no cost.
Now I ask you....how many others did the same??
It is my hunch the 2006-2008-W proof and uncirculated SURVIVING numbers may be much closer to each other than mintages would suggest especially for the 1/2 and 1 oz coins.
Remember surviving numbers are always less than mintage numbers......................
Since we're playing truth and consequences, I actually sent 3 of my 10 1997 proof plat sets to the melter last week and used the proceeds to buy some of the rarer more recent plat issues.
I did this because I was kicking myself when I missed the last spike a couple of years back.
Rich, did you mark up any of the coins you sold? Eric defaced some of the plats he sold in 2008 so they couldn't be re-sold, they had to be melted. just curious if you did the same or if they possibly could be re-sold instead of melted?
Off and on there has been considerable discussion as to why any of the proof or burnished coins would actually be sold to a smelter.
Why not sell to a collector and get the additional numismatic premium?
The 2008 platinum spike and subsequent crash in prices in 2008 answers that question.
My B&M guy did not want to have the risk associated with keeping the coins as inventory.
He was happy to make his 7% over what he paid me for 35 oz. with zero risk vs holding the coins in inventory hoping to find a collector willing to pay a premium to the high spot price.
Had he held them 5 months he would have suffered a 50%+ /low to mid five figure loss!!
At the time of the spike(Feb-July 2008) there were far more sellers of platinum coins than buyers.
In addition the numismatic premium was minimal for virtually all raw and PR/MS69 coins with perhaps exception of 2004 proofs.
<< <i>I don't have a horse in the gold buffalo race, so I can say (without bias), "Bulls & Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered." JMO >>
I thought it was "pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered", Either way, I agree. At the least sell enough to get your money back for all you bought and keep the rest for free. Personally, I am thinking of selling one 1/4 oz buff and buying a colt LE6920 before the next assult weapon ban hits.
Comments
<< <i>PCGS PR70DCAM+
They do not get better than this jewel! And, she's bonafide!
Griv -- I really like the look of the TruView where the field isn't black.
Yeah. That is an awesome coin!
Eric
There are really too many threads about the Big One now that I felt it better to post my questions here, particularly since they relate to Moderns:
1. What happens to a Modern 68 coin with Pop 1? Does it mean I have to wait until the population increases and then submit for REGRADE to see if it qualifies for 68+?
2. Do you see the price of Modern 69's and 70's increasing significantly because so many just want to take the PLUS+++ issue out of play?
I sent an email to BJ Searls asking if a free TrueView image would be rolled in with the Secure Plus Service (I thought it made sense since they are going to scan the whole coin) - the answer was NO - USD20 extra please..........
JCoin
<< <i>Hi Guys!
There are really too many threads about the Big One now that I felt it better to post my questions here, particularly since they relate to Moderns:
1. What happens to a Modern 68 coin with Pop 1? Does it mean I have to wait until the population increases and then submit for REGRADE to see if it qualifies for 68+?
2. Do you see the price of Modern 69's and 70's increasing significantly because so many just want to take the PLUS+++ issue out of play?
I sent an email to BJ Searls asking if a free TrueView image would be rolled in with the Secure Plus Service (I thought it made sense since they are going to scan the whole coin) - the answer was NO - USD20 extra please..........
JCoin >>
Now I am confused. The NGC website has a press release stating:
"Aspects of the service offered by NGC and PCGS are similar. The plus designation applies only to US coins from select classic series, and it is not currently planned to be applied to modern coinage issues."
Huh? But if you go to the PCGS Population Report and Price Guide they have already created spaces for plus designated coins whether they be classic, modern, bullion, world, commemorative or whatever?
To answer your question, I just pasted this from the response thread and it came directly from Willis: "PCGS Secure Plus is for US and World coins."
Do you see the price of Modern 69's and 70's increasing significantly because so many just want to take the PLUS+++ issue out of play?
To answer your other question, I personally don't think that the price of 69s and 70s will benefit directly from this new policy (especially moderns). The majority of precious metal based moderns grade between 69 and 70 anyways (and 68 and below are not even desirable for most).
<< <i>Here's a finned edge for ya, Griv. Leave it to the Mint to screw up a great coin.
It always amazed me as MANY platinums had similar issues but that one is the worst I've seen. A 2004 $100 PR too. Dang, that's gotta hurt.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>I just received an email from Amazon - release date on Eric's book pushed back, estimated delivery now early August. >>
I hope he mentions me.
I think you will see a dramatic improvement in KPs US Coin Digest in the 2012 addition. If they keep their current interest and effort level they may become the modern guys red book and as our ranks continue to grow every bodies Red Book....
Eric
$8,000+ raw............
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=190381845665&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT
$8,000+ raw............
Link
wow. I can't imagine we'll see another 2008 anytime soon, but I thought the same thing in 1995 and 2004, so who knows?
<< <i>Just a monday update......
$8,000+ raw............
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=190381845665&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT >>
If this keeps up I'll be able to pay for my kitchen remodel with one set....I need a quadruple from here though.
I go away for a few days and we break $8,200 for a raw Buff proof set...very nice!!!
2010 will be minted.... just no date yet
I don't know where I posted this, but I did have an Unc Set and a Proof Set for sale about a month ago on BST, in the $6,000 range for either. Should I be glad that they didn't sell? They're both up $2,000 from where I would have sold them. Unless you need the money, why sell now? Until the Mint comes up with a "killer coin" in a precious metal that doesn't sell many in spite of being a killer coin, the Gold Buffs will probably remain predominant. When I say predominant, I mean that they will elbow their way into the collecting sphere elite section and stay there. What always makes something like this work is that ***nobody*** buys as many as they "should have bought" when they were being sold.
Remember that most of these issues cost a premium up over 30% when they are issued, and that's already a hard pill to swallow. A desireable Modern happens in the heat of the moment, when the Modern market is feeling tired and over-worked from too many issues, soaking up every last dime that collectors, investors, dealers and speculators can throw at the market. Right now, I don't see another situation like that in the works unless for some reason the Gold Spouses or the Silver Hockey Puck Dinner Plate Series really takes off.
The Mint has no consistancy in it's management, and their policies are never predictable. The economy plays a part, to be sure. When demand for Mint products falls off a cliff, what previously looked like a small mintage might suddenly begin to look normal again. Look ahead and take your best shot. It sure beats the stock market playing with bogus paper assets.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The buffs really are just incredible. They keep going up with no end in sight. Of course, if The Mint ever announces that they'll do buff fractionals again, they'll take a big hit. Keep or sell...... >>
Not necessarily. The 2008-W one-ounce buffs are doing very well even though the series continues to be struck.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Check out last reported sales for the Anna Harrison First Spouse $10 gold. Are these likely to be the final numbers? >>
Mintage 3,537. I sure hope those are the final numbers for the uncirculated Anna Harrison.
$8200 Buff Proof Set spoken of earlier in this post:
Will you sell it for alot less than value??
Once again, I thought the top would be somewhat reminescent of the 2004 Plat Proof Set, around $5000.
Otherwise, there has been no model from which to base the potential on this set. Yet.......
Miles
The economy today is probably just as worse as it was in 08, yet collectors are buying these up. The $5, $10 and $25 are the unique coins more so than the $50 even though it is the key for the one ouncers.
Box of 20
<< <i>If you want to get a bit nostalgic and see what the set was priced a few months ago, check out the last question asked by a potential buyer in the
$8200 Buff Proof Set spoken of earlier in this post:
Will you sell it for alot less than value??
Once again, I thought the top would be somewhat reminescent of the 2004 Plat Proof Set, around $5000.
Otherwise, there has been no model from which to base the potential on this set. Yet.......
Miles >>
1,247 listing views is, to me, quite impressive!
<< <i>I think the lack of gold planchets and the demand caused the 2008 W Buffalo Set to be minted at so low numbers. It could happen again with the one ouncer in future issues. I don't understand the mentality of the collector mind paying 4 times over issue price.
The economy today is probably just as worse as it was in 08, yet collectors are buying these up. The $5, $10 and $25 are the unique coins more so than the $50 even though it is the key for the one ouncers. >>
There was no planchet problem in 2008. Everyone was free to order as many of the buffalos as they wanted. They sold out much sooner than anyone expected however. That might have been due to the low demand at that time.
<< <i>
<< <i>If you want to get a bit nostalgic and see what the set was priced a few months ago, check out the last question asked by a potential buyer in the
$8200 Buff Proof Set spoken of earlier in this post:
Will you sell it for alot less than value??
Once again, I thought the top would be somewhat reminescent of the 2004 Plat Proof Set, around $5000.
Otherwise, there has been no model from which to base the potential on this set. Yet.......
Miles >>
1,247 listing views is, to me, quite impressive!
..........................................................................................................................
I hadn't noticed the number of views.
I've got 6,500 feedback and I've never had an item with 1,200 views.
A fresh group of 1988 $25 Gold Eagles recently gets submitted to PCGS (45,000 total mintage on this coin)...
What was a pop 5 coin after 22 years of grading (PCGS-MS70) becomes pop 25 now virtually overnight!
An example of why I am personally a fan of lower mintage moderns (roughly sub-20,000 and even more excited at sub-12,500) and somewhat careful on many of the higher mintage coins.
I will be addressing these types of issues in much greater detail over on Coinfacts.
Wondercoin
As of 3/28/2010 the sales report reads:
$50 proof gold buffs 49,388
So sad. It almost made a nice round 50,000 coins. We may as well get used to this.
Eric
At least when I acquired mt 70's it was before the recent 70's "flood" so I suspect I'm sitting on MS70+s across the board.
<< <i>"Real rarity is when there are not any coins" .......
As of 3/28/2010 the sales report reads:
$50 proof gold buffs 49,388
So sad. It almost made a nice round 50,000 coins. We may as well get used to this.
.........................................................................
I believe that unless mandated by law the mint wishes to avoid low volume issues.
For US Mint the combined lesson from 2008-2009 was that you can make just as much money with a few high mintage items(2009 platinum, buffalo and UHR) as you could make from a diverse multitute of lower mintage items such as the various fractionals. The same profit with far less production and inventory problems.
I suspect they would gladly dump the First Spouse coins except they are mandated by law.
What was a pop 5 coin after 22 years of grading (PCGS-MS70) becomes pop 25 now virtually overnight!
An example of why I am personally a fan of lower mintage moderns (roughly sub-20,000 and even more excited at sub-12,500) and somewhat careful on many of the higher mintage coins.<<
An example of why I am personally a fan of MS69 and raw lower mintage moderns.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>If you want to get a bit nostalgic and see what the set was priced a few months ago, check out the last question asked by a potential buyer in the
$8200 Buff Proof Set spoken of earlier in this post:
Will you sell it for alot less than value??
Once again, I thought the top would be somewhat reminescent of the 2004 Plat Proof Set, around $5000.
Otherwise, there has been no model from which to base the potential on this set. Yet.......
Miles >>
I have an Unc set for $12,500 if anyone is interested? Wait, maybe I should make that $15,000? The way things are going, that should be tapped in another month or so. Does this sound like it's topped out?
<< <i>Keep or sell......
I don't know where I posted this, but I did have an Unc Set and a Proof Set for sale about a month ago on BST, in the $6,000 range for either. Should I be glad that they didn't sell? They're both up $2,000 from where I would have sold them. Unless you need the money, why sell now? Until the Mint comes up with a "killer coin" in a precious metal that doesn't sell many in spite of being a killer coin, the Gold Buffs will probably remain predominant. When I say predominant, I mean that they will elbow their way into the collecting sphere elite section and stay there. What always makes something like this work is that ***nobody*** buys as many as they "should have bought" when they were being sold.
Remember that most of these issues cost a premium up over 30% when they are issued, and that's already a hard pill to swallow. A desireable Modern happens in the heat of the moment, when the Modern market is feeling tired and over-worked from too many issues, soaking up every last dime that collectors, investors, dealers and speculators can throw at the market. Right now, I don't see another situation like that in the works unless for some reason the Gold Spouses or the Silver Hockey Puck Dinner Plate Series really takes off.
The Mint has no consistancy in it's management, and their policies are never predictable. The economy plays a part, to be sure. When demand for Mint products falls off a cliff, what previously looked like a small mintage might suddenly begin to look normal again. Look ahead and take your best shot. It sure beats the stock market playing with bogus paper assets. >>
jmski52-
Very insightful. Fantastic post.
BTW, did you all see the 2008 w gold buff NGC ER Proof 70 set which sold on the 30th for $9000?
Where will they stop? The rate of increase of these is simply astounding. Have you all seen such a trajectory in any other modern?
<< <i>
<< <i>The buffs really are just incredible. They keep going up with no end in sight. Of course, if The Mint ever announces that they'll do buff fractionals again, they'll take a big hit. Keep or sell...... >>
Not necessarily. The 2008-W one-ounce buffs are doing very well even though the series continues to be struck. >>
Good observation Overdate.
I've thought about this. I have assumed that a lot of the appeal - and value - of the 08 one ounce is that it is part of an (at least to this point) unique set which includes fractionals.
Getting within less than $150 of the point where IMO we will start seeing platinum coins head to the smelters.
I believe $1800+ spot will shake some raw and PR/MS69 1 and 1/2 oz. coins loose.
The 1/10 and 1/4 versions will take $2000+ spot to be scraped.
If you don't believe me consider this closed auction..........
http://cgi.ebay.com/2006-Early-Releases-NGC-MS70-50-Platinum-Eagle_W0QQitemZ320506679184QQcmdZViewItemQQptZCoins_US_Individual?hash=item4a9fafcf90
Those 2006-2008 mintage numbers are fixed but surviving numbers can only go down.................
Unc? or Proof?
I track every ebay sale I can find, for every grade and TPG category of the 2008-W Gold Buffs. It's best to look at all the data at once, because so many categories can result in discontinuity in the analysis if you don't look at it all together.
The Uncs are still in a price climb. Don't sell. Anything less than a 70, which means - in the box, PCGS MS-69, NGC MS-69, or raw - all of these categories are (still) in a parabolic pattern. By that, I mean that the progression from $600 or so to $1,400/$1,800 or so has not had any retracements. I would expect that when this one hits the ceiling, it will drop about 30%. That's no reason to sell early.
The Proofs are a bit more orderly. Don't sell. Here, the price progression doesn't seem to be as steep but the progression is just as relentless. The "anything less than a 70" category has gone from around $900 to somewhere around $1,500 over the same few months.
The difference between NGC-70 vs. PCGS-70 is all over the map. Nevertheless, PCGS-70 coins in the Gold Buffs seem to be the ones that hit the record prices. Still, the NGC-70 coins carry significant premiums as well.
The difference between 69 vs. 70 is usually quite significant. I'd venture a guess that the difference amounts to between 80% and 120% between the grades. Sometimes, it is hard to tell because I just noticed an NGC-69 leapfrog over the previous ANACS-70 price by 60%. That might simply be because there are fewer ANACS coins in the market and that particular data point might be old.
The only reason I can think of to sell would be - if you have multiples and simply want to test the market - stick your toe in the water, as it were. You might get lucky and sell just before a correction. Yeah, just maybe.
I knew it would happen.
JCoin
<< <i>Looks like spot platinum is at an 18 month high.
Getting within less than $150 of the point where IMO we will start seeing platinum coins head to the smelters.
I believe $1800+ spot will shake some raw and PR/MS69 1 and 1/2 oz. coins loose.
. >>
I agree. I know that the recent run-up has got me thinking about the long-term prospects of my 2007 anniversary set. Hm...
<< <i>Looks like spot platinum is at an 18 month high.
Getting within less than $150 of the point where IMO we will start seeing platinum coins head to the smelters.
I believe $1800+ spot will shake some raw and PR/MS69 1 and 1/2 oz. coins loose.
The 1/10 and 1/4 versions will take $2000+ spot to be scraped.
If you don't believe me consider this closed auction..........
http://cgi.ebay.com/2006-Early-Releases-NGC-MS70-50-Platinum-Eagle_W0QQitemZ320506679184QQcmdZViewItemQQptZCoins_US_Individual?hash=item4a9fafcf90
Those 2006-2008 mintage numbers are fixed but surviving numbers can only go down................. >>
The first to go will likely be the non-W bullion coins, like the one in the above auction.
I think it will take a somewhat higher price to send the W-uncirculated plats to the smelters (except maybe the 2007s), especially since the population of these coins has already been diminished by the previous melts when platinum reached $2000+.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I agree that the first to go will be the non-w bullion coins... As small as the population of platinum guys is, the population of non-w collectors is an even smaller subset. Perhaps a time will come when non-w bullion plats will be appreciated, but I think it's a long way down the road. Collect what you want, but as an investment I just don't see the non-ws as a winner.
I think it will take a somewhat higher price to send the W-uncirculated plats to the smelters (except maybe the 2007s), especially since the population of these coins has already been diminished by the previous melts when platinum reached $2000+.
Some quantity of them (we're talking 2006 and 2007, since the 2008s were mostly purchased when platinum was at $900 an ounce), were reportedly sold as bullion but it's almost impossible to determine surviving population. My guess is that only a small percentage of 2006 and 2007 w coins were actually rendered uncollectable. I think that perspectives have changed since early 2008. We've seen platinum rally to $2300, plummet to $800, mass layoffs and a recession, the end of the plat w unc program and a collector market that, so far at least, doesn't really care.
I think if platinum crests to the 1800-2000 range, we'll see more sales of raw and MS69 coins effectively at melt. Anyone who bought 2008 plats in Oct/Nov are already in a reasonable profit position at $1600 an ounce, and with the collector market as soft as it is, might decide to exit for greener investment opportunities. 2006 ws were being sold at melt when platinum was $2000+, and they fell hard in 2008. The initial excitement over the platinum w-uncs has passed, and it would not surprise me to see those with quantities sell them into a decent platinum rally.
<< <i>
<< <i>Looks like spot platinum is at an 18 month high.
Getting within less than $150 of the point where IMO we will start seeing platinum coins head to the smelters.
I believe $1800+ spot will shake some raw and PR/MS69 1 and 1/2 oz. coins loose.
The 1/10 and 1/4 versions will take $2000+ spot to be scraped.
If you don't believe me consider this closed auction..........
http://cgi.ebay.com/2006-Early-Releases-NGC-MS70-50-Platinum-Eagle_W0QQitemZ320506679184QQcmdZViewItemQQptZCoins_US_Individual?hash=item4a9fafcf90
Those 2006-2008 mintage numbers are fixed but surviving numbers can only go down................. >>
The first to go will likely be the non-W bullion coins, like the one in the above auction.
I think it will take a somewhat higher price to send the W-uncirculated plats to the smelters (except maybe the 2007s), especially since the population of these coins has already been diminished by the previous melts when platinum reached $2000+. >>
I agree on the 2007s and here is where it gets interesting..............
During the 2008 spike I scraped out 20 of the 2007-W 4 coin sets both proof and unc/burnished.
The 2007-W 1/2 oz proofs were dead money with the large number of anniversary sets and the 1 oz slugs were just too tempting at $1900+ in march of 2008 when I had just bought them for 1/3 less in dec. 2007!!
I kept the 1/10th and 1/4th as I figured my 4 month profit let me keep them at no cost.
Now I ask you....how many others did the same??
It is my hunch the 2006-2008-W proof and uncirculated SURVIVING numbers may be much closer to each other than mintages would suggest especially for the 1/2 and 1 oz coins.
Remember surviving numbers are always less than mintage numbers......................
I did this because I was kicking myself when I missed the last spike a couple of years back.
Does that make me a bad numismatist?
I knew it would happen.
Why not sell to a collector and get the additional numismatic premium?
The 2008 platinum spike and subsequent crash in prices in 2008 answers that question.
My B&M guy did not want to have the risk associated with keeping the coins as inventory.
He was happy to make his 7% over what he paid me for 35 oz. with zero risk vs holding the coins in inventory hoping to find a collector willing to pay a premium to the high spot price.
Had he held them 5 months he would have suffered a 50%+ /low to mid five figure loss!!
At the time of the spike(Feb-July 2008) there were far more sellers of platinum coins than buyers.
In addition the numismatic premium was minimal for virtually all raw and PR/MS69 coins with perhaps exception of 2004 proofs.
<< <i>I don't have a horse in the gold buffalo race, so I can say (without bias), "Bulls & Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered." JMO >>
I thought it was "pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered", Either way, I agree. At the least sell enough to get your money back for all you bought and keep the rest for free. Personally, I am thinking of selling one 1/4 oz buff and buying a colt LE6920 before the next assult weapon ban hits.