Look at the mintage for that 2008-W 1/10 oz plat proof. 5138. That's lower than all of the 2004 plat proofs except for the 1/2 oz. And the 1/10 ouncers are very popular because of their affordability.
<< <i><<This has been discussed before but it may be myoptic to look at the 3 years and try to pick "Kings" based solely on mintages.>>
But that's all the fun we have around here...calling each other stupid bums! All we need now is a beer keg and a pool table and we wouldn't have to go home at night!
As for those final 2008 w unc platinum numbers, all I can say is wow.
Sorry if I remain a bit skeptical, but those just seem way off from prior reported figures.
Either way, I'm happy, and glad to see them getting some attention.
Edited to add:
I just spoke to Eric, and he's always been a really reliable source -- when he says "Final Final" that's good enough for me. I'm just a little shell-shocked, since we've been operating with a different expectation on 2008 w numbers for almost a year.
As some have suspected...the wild swings in the price or platinum last year coupled with the multitude of returned coins under the old Mint policy, must have all conspired to significally (and artificially) inflate the previously published sales numbers.
As some have suspected...the wild swings in the price or platinum last year coupled with the multitude of returned coins under the old Mint policy, must have all conspired to significally (and artificially) inflate the previously published sales numbers.
I'm not sure about that-- the bulk of '08 w sales took place in late October/early November, and platinum wasn't fluctuating wildly then. It was at a low during that period. platinum charts Available coins were snapped up following repricing, and were sold out in a week or two. I doubt that there were large returns after that quick sellout. For one thing, platinum started moving back up. For another, many of us had open orders that could have absorbed returns, but were never filled. I don't have a good answer for the dramatic difference between the sales/struck numbers we've been using and the ones Eric just posted, but I don't think returns would account for it.
<<I'm not sure about that-- the bulk of '08 w sales took place in late October/early November, and platinum wasn't fluctuating wildly then. It was at a low during that period. platinum charts Available coins were snapped up following repricing, and were sold out in a week or two. I doubt that there were large returns after that quick sellout. For one thing, platinum started moving back up. For another, many of us had open orders that could have absorbed returns, but were never filled. I don't have a good answer for the dramatic difference between the sales/struck numbers we've been using and the ones Eric just posted, but I don't think returns would account for it. >>
Possible. Unless the Mint actually melted the coins that were returned and marked as damaged. In the big picture, taking a few hundred coins (small by any measure) out of the equation could have tipped this scale significantly.
I would view the final 2008-W APE burnished numbers this way...........
Compared to the larger coins fewer of the single 1/10 coins were likely to have been returned.
I believe most of the decline in the 1/10 coins likely came as return of 4 coin sets.
Probably 800+/- of the 4 coin sets returned in that late July early August period along with some cherry picked examples in Nov.
Rest of mintage declines in the 1/4, 1/2 and 1 oz coins were returned singles.
As I recall if you bought the 2008-W APE burnished 4 coin set in early July it saved you a $1500 decline in spot to return them in early August.
Like many I pulled what I thought were best examples and returned 80-90% of my 2008-W burnished APEs in early August and repurchased them in November at an almost $2000 per 4 coin set saving.
Yes the returns closed the door on what I felt sure would be low FS totals but for $1500 set I wasn't going to play the FS label game.
Tonight I am going home to see what I actually kept. I placed and cancelled so many orders at the end of last year that I don't even remember what I wound up with.
7/8 I must say that I started to doubt your words after halstrike grilled you to death. I commend you for making a stand; you will be happy to know that I did not sell a single uncirculated platinum coin!!!!!! If you make it to west palm beach I will be happy to buy you several beers!!!!
Wao, what a great end to this story!!!! You sir are the MAN!!!!!
Wow. This is unbelievable! What are the PCGS populations for the MS 70 APEs? I happen to have a 4 coin set in MS-70 (not first strike). What would be a fair value for that set on eBay?
7/8, agreed. it's shocking that the numbers would be revised so dramatically at this stage of the game.
The low 2008 numbers are fine for me-- I have a good quantity-- and since they are pretty close to 2006 I'm not worried about my holdings there either. The only thing left to see is if demand materializes. I expect that these new numbers will generate some interest, at least for a short while. There's simply no downside to mostly sub 3,000 numbers.
I also agree that even though 3 of 4 of the 08-W Unc Plats are sub 06-W mintages, they are close enough as to not have much of a downside effect on the 06-W
MMR, it's pretty hard to tell what fair value is. the market for 2008s has been really soft. presumably these revised numbers will increase interest. my personal experience with the 2008 w uncs is about a 25% 70 rate; the 2006 coins were closer to 50% 70s.
This makes up for the fact that I was one of the few idiots to buy at the original Mint price, and not return when they reduced the price, as my coins were at PCGS.
But guess what, I got a complete set of MS70 First Strikes!
Not many of these exist, as PCGS was not giving our First Strikes to non-dealers at that time.
>>Which begs the obvious question...from the point of view of potential future appreciation...which specific coin is THE king of the 2008 plat crop?!? Thoughts...conjecture?<<
Based on these mintages, here are some random thoughts on the burnished plats:
4-coin sets: Total 2008-W sets still unknown, I would guess about 1600. Well-heeled collectors and investors will probably want to keep their sets intact, I would expect no more than 20% have been or will be broken up. This will greatly limit the number of coins available to collectors of single platinum denominations.
$100 one-ounce - more popular and higher mintage than all but the $10 fractionals. However, if platinum prices keep rising it will impact the affordability (and thus the popularity) of this coin more than any of the smaller denominations. I don't see the $100 as having much room for appreciation except in relation to its metal content. Surviving 2006-W $100's probably are close in number to 2008-W $100's because of the Great Melt.
$50 half-ounce - rarest by a small margin, and popular with many collectors who like a decent-sized coin at around half the price of the next size up. Again, affordability will be an issue if the price of platinum hits the stratosphere. A number of 2006-W burnished $50 plats were reportedly melted in the last price run-up, but I'm guessing the 2008-W is still scarcer than the 2006-W, and also has the distinction of having the lowest net mintage of the 21st Century thus far.
$25 quarter-ounce - almost as rare as the $50, more affordable, but noticeably smaller and does not display reverse detail to best advantage. I like this coin the best in terms of possible future appreciation, it's a good compromise between size, mintage and affordability. If the platinum price goes up, the $25 will still remain relatively affordable. If the platinum price goes down, the low mintage should give the coin excellent downside protection.
$10 tenth-ounce - the most popular and affordable denomination, and the one with the highest mintage. Handicapped by its small size (needing a magnifying glass to fully appreciate the design), by its relative availability (more than double the number of single coins available compared to the $25 and $50), and by the fact that, alone among the 2008-W burnished plats, it is not the key (the 2006-W $10 has a lower mintage by 162 coins).
At current prices, I would pick the $25 as the King of 2008-W plats, in terms of value for money spent. For reasons similar to those above, I would pick the $25 as King of proof plats also.
Wow! I should have mortgaged the house last year. I'm thankful for being able to get the plats I have, though. Thanks to Eric and others who provided the information that helped me to decide which ones to buy. The return rates on the 3 highest denominations must have been close to one-third the total mintages, if the previous sales numbers are to be believed. A lot of people are probably kicking themselves now.
<< <i>Guys I just bought some 08 fractionals proof and unc-w plats I needed to cover holes in my extended families sets. I suggested weeks ago that people who needed the coins just sit back because they would very likely be back much cheaper. Now I am suggesting that if you want these coins do not play a game of chicken with the mint go buy them. Also I would like to point out that I think the Unc-w run was SMALL, maybe crazy small.
Guys thanks for all your kind words. We have been so blessed to be collectors in this period of mint history.
We have been a forward looking bunch and have had a good run over the last 5 years looking to new issues for quality growth in our collections and in some cases to make a buck but this period is by and large ending with the likely exception of a few first spouse issues.
My advice to those who will listen is go work on your back dates. Currently I am completing the following:
4 coin set of $10 mint state "w" mint mark gold in ms-70 (1999-w, 2006-w, 2007-w, 2008-w) ngc multi coin holder 4 coin set of $5 mint state "w" mint mark gold in ms-70 (1999-w, 2006-w, 2007-w, 2008-w) ngc multi coin holder 5 coin mint state "w" buffalo type set in 70 ($50, $25, $10, $5, plus a $1 buff mint state dollar) pcgs multi coin holder
1997-2008 $50 proof platinum eagles ngc-70 2005-2008 $50 mint state platinum eagle date run type set pcgs-70 in a 4 coin holder 1997 inaugural reverse proof and 2007 anniversary reverse proof pair ngc two coin holder
1997-2008 $25 proof platinum eagles ngc-70 2005-2008 $25 mint state platinum eagle date run type set pcgs-70 four coin holder
$10 plats are good too but not working on it right now.
2007-2010 $10 mint state gold Liberty set ngc 70 in a 4 coin holder
Notice all these sets are: Closed/finite High Grade Mostly mint state. Rare with high bullion content.
Stay off the 20,000 plus mintage high dollar coins rolling out of the Mint from now on. Go buy the closed fractional backdates as money allows over the next couple years. There will be a few new mint issues that are in a collectable mintage range ... a few. Dont focus on the new weak few and over look the more numerous and better past. The flipper/dealer inventory dissipation cycle is under way. It is a fading opportunity.
Comments
<< <i>I compared the latest numbers for the 08 APE Proofs with previously reported sales and here they are:
2008-W APE Proof (Latest numbers versus previously reported sales):
1oz 4,769 vs (2,432+2,598 sets) = 5,030
1/2 oz 4,020 vs (1,056+2,598 sets) = 3,654
1/4 oz 4,153 vs (1,293+2,598 sets) =3,891
1/10 oz 5,138 vs (3,052+2,598 sets) = 5,650
As you can see, some went up and some went down. Still very low numbers.
Here are the 2004 for reference.
2004-W APE Proof (Final mintage):
1 oz = 6,007
1/2 oz = 5,063
1/4 oz = 5,193
1/10 oz = 7,161
2008 was way less. 1000 fewer coins for 1oz, 1/2, 1/4 and 2000 less for 1/10 !!!
<< <i>Final Finals for 2008
Platinum
Proof
1 0.5 0.25 0.1
4769 4020 4153 5138
MS-w
2876 2253 2481 3706
Gold
Proof
30237 22602 18877 28116
Unc-w
11908 15682 8883 12657 >>
Spank me!
It just gets better and better.
Thank you Eric
R95
<< <i><<This has been discussed before but it may be myoptic to look at the 3 years and try to pick "Kings" based solely on mintages.>>
But that's all the fun we have around here...calling each other stupid bums! All we need now is a beer keg and a pool table and we wouldn't have to go home at night!
Now yer talkin'! Burp!
I missed the mintages on the 2008 W Unc. Gold Eagles (1/4)......anybody have a link ? thanks
<< <i>I missed the mintages on the 2008 W Unc. Gold Eagles (1/4)......anybody have a link ? thanks >>
Eric's post on the previous page says 8883. Too bad it isn't 8888.
Miles
Sorry if I remain a bit skeptical, but those just seem way off from prior reported figures.
Either way, I'm happy, and glad to see them getting some attention.
Edited to add:
I just spoke to Eric, and he's always been a really reliable source -- when he says "Final Final" that's good enough for me. I'm just a little shell-shocked, since we've been operating with a different expectation on 2008 w numbers for almost a year.
<< <i>As for those final 2008 w unc platinum numbers, all I can say is wow.
Sorry if I remain a but skeptical, but those just seem way off from prior reported figures.
Either way, I'm happy, and glad to see them getting some attention. >>
Getting attention is what is happening on ebay:
Plats a Plenty
<< <i>Is 7/8 still sleeping? He should be rubbing our noses in this news right now.
>>
Boy I hope he does. He got put through the ringer on this one... Way to stand tall 7/8.
Plats a Plenty
Let's see, asking breaks down to $333 per coin. That doesn't seem unreasonable.
As some have suspected...the wild swings in the price or platinum last year coupled with the multitude of returned coins under the old Mint policy, must have all conspired to significally (and artificially) inflate the previously published sales numbers.
I'm not sure about that-- the bulk of '08 w sales took place in late October/early November, and platinum wasn't fluctuating wildly then. It was at a low during that period. platinum charts Available coins were snapped up following repricing, and were sold out in a week or two. I doubt that there were large returns after that quick sellout. For one thing, platinum started moving back up. For another, many of us had open orders that could have absorbed returns, but were never filled. I don't have a good answer for the dramatic difference between the sales/struck numbers we've been using and the ones Eric just posted, but I don't think returns would account for it.
Possible. Unless the Mint actually melted the coins that were returned and marked as damaged. In the big picture, taking a few hundred coins (small by any measure) out of the equation could have tipped this scale significantly.
2008 w old...... new
$100......4,063....2,876
$50........3,415...2,253
$25........3,894...2,481
$10........4,623...3,706
"THE MARKET DOES NOT GET THE POINT THAT THE MINT IS NOT INTERESTED IN MESSING WITH LOW MINTAGE COINAGE ANYMORE!"
"There will be a good modern here and there but by and large the killers are in the past."
For this reason, I don't expect the 2009 1 oz Platinum Proof to be a low mintage coin.
<< <i>I'm looking at these revised 2008 w numbers, and still have a difficult time believing them.
2008 w old...... new
$100......4,063....2,876
$50........3,415...2,253
$25........3,894...2,481
$10........4,623...3,706 >>
...................................................................
I would view the final 2008-W APE burnished numbers this way...........
Compared to the larger coins fewer of the single 1/10 coins were likely to have been returned.
I believe most of the decline in the 1/10 coins likely came as return of 4 coin sets.
Probably 800+/- of the 4 coin sets returned in that late July early August period along with some cherry picked examples in Nov.
Rest of mintage declines in the 1/4, 1/2 and 1 oz coins were returned singles.
As I recall if you bought the 2008-W APE burnished 4 coin set in early July it saved you a $1500 decline in spot to return them in early August.
Like many I pulled what I thought were best examples and returned 80-90% of my 2008-W burnished APEs in early August and repurchased them in November at an almost $2000 per 4 coin set saving.
Yes the returns closed the door on what I felt sure would be low FS totals but for $1500 set I wasn't going to play the FS label game.
Thanks to all the believers.......
I promised I would be modest on here........ahh what the h&ll
2008-W PLAT UNC's.......................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The new KINGS.........................
I'll take my beer now - NYCounsel..........
COINBOY...........I don't know what to say...........I'm at a loss for words........where are you man......come out come out........
Halfstrike......Hopefully you got some nice 08-W UNC PLATS......
Tonight I am going home to see what I actually kept. I placed and cancelled so many orders at the end of last year that I don't even remember what I wound up with.
<< <i>Getting attention is what is happening on ebay:
Plats a Plenty
Let's see, asking breaks down to $333 per coin. That doesn't seem unreasonable. >>
Anyone interested ( actually 15 folks needed ) in throwing in $1500 and offering $22500 and splitting these up at 5 plats apiece?
well, the $10s are still above the 2006 numbers.
..................What happens now to the prices for the 2004 proof plats? Going to take a nose dive?
<< <i>
<< <i>Getting attention is what is happening on ebay:
Plats a Plenty
Let's see, asking breaks down to $333 per coin. That doesn't seem unreasonable. >>
Anyone interested ( actually 15 folks needed ) in throwing in $1500 and offering $22500 and splitting these up at 5 plats apiece? >>
Ask Jerry!!!
Miles
3 out of 4 ain't bad.........
This goes to show you how much you can rely on those sales****COUGH***** I mean order numbers
I am not the big gambling man that NYC is - and it might not be fair given I could have more info than he does
but - I have faith in this call - and so do others here that remain quiet....I won't call them out, they like to remain nameless and watch....
however, I will wager a cold beer at a cheap bar in NYC's Financial District (WFC) on a hot day in June......how's that?
okay, 7, assuming these new "final final" numbers hold up -- even though it's way past June -- I'll buy you that beer.
Wao, what a great end to this story!!!! You sir are the MAN!!!!!
All kidding aside, lets hope we all are making some money on the news.......
It just still baffles me how the record keeping could go so bad.........
Great news!
The low 2008 numbers are fine for me-- I have a good quantity-- and since they are pretty close to 2006 I'm not worried about my holdings there either. The only thing left to see is if demand materializes. I expect that these new numbers will generate some interest, at least for a short while. There's simply no downside to mostly sub 3,000 numbers.
It will be hard to say what all this means ................at least for awhile with the big selloff in late 2007 and early 2008.
SNMAN
I also agree that even though 3 of 4 of the 08-W Unc Plats are sub 06-W mintages, they are close enough as to not have much of a downside effect on the 06-W
The 3 year series is just a killer set!!!!!!!!
But guess what, I got a complete set of MS70 First Strikes!
Not many of these exist, as PCGS was not giving our First Strikes to non-dealers at that time.
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
Based on these mintages, here are some random thoughts on the burnished plats:
$100 $50 $25 $10 Total
2006 3086 2577 2676 3544 11,883
2007 4425 3930 3900 5783 18,038
2008 2876 2253 2481 3706 9,489
4-coin sets: Total 2008-W sets still unknown, I would guess about 1600. Well-heeled collectors and investors will probably want to keep their sets intact, I would expect no more than 20% have been or will be broken up. This will greatly limit the number of coins available to collectors of single platinum denominations.
$100 one-ounce - more popular and higher mintage than all but the $10 fractionals. However, if platinum prices keep rising it will impact the affordability (and thus the popularity) of this coin more than any of the smaller denominations. I don't see the $100 as having much room for appreciation except in relation to its metal content. Surviving 2006-W $100's probably are close in number to 2008-W $100's because of the Great Melt.
$50 half-ounce - rarest by a small margin, and popular with many collectors who like a decent-sized coin at around half the price of the next size up. Again, affordability will be an issue if the price of platinum hits the stratosphere. A number of 2006-W burnished $50 plats were reportedly melted in the last price run-up, but I'm guessing the 2008-W is still scarcer than the 2006-W, and also has the distinction of having the lowest net mintage of the 21st Century thus far.
$25 quarter-ounce - almost as rare as the $50, more affordable, but noticeably smaller and does not display reverse detail to best advantage. I like this coin the best in terms of possible future appreciation, it's a good compromise between size, mintage and affordability. If the platinum price goes up, the $25 will still remain relatively affordable. If the platinum price goes down, the low mintage should give the coin excellent downside protection.
$10 tenth-ounce - the most popular and affordable denomination, and the one with the highest mintage. Handicapped by its small size (needing a magnifying glass to fully appreciate the design), by its relative availability (more than double the number of single coins available compared to the $25 and $50), and by the fact that, alone among the 2008-W burnished plats, it is not the key (the 2006-W $10 has a lower mintage by 162 coins).
At current prices, I would pick the $25 as the King of 2008-W plats, in terms of value for money spent. For reasons similar to those above, I would pick the $25 as King of proof plats also.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i><<$50 MS W BUFF 9074>>
<<$25 MS W BUFF 16,000+>>
<<$10 MS W BUFF 9949>>
<<$5 MS W BUFF 17471 >>
How did the actual Buff mintage numbers stack up against expectations? >>
Anyone have an answer to this? Did the Buffalo numbers change?
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
1oz 9,074 vs 9,425 = (3,124 + 6,303 sets)
1/2 oz 16,000+ vs 17,351+ = (3,297 + 6,303 sets + 7,751* (08-08 sets)
1/4 oz 9,949 vs 10,420 = (4,117 + 6,303 sets)
1/10oz 17,471 vs 18,847 = (12,544 + 6,303 sets)
The numbers went down for all sizes except for the 1/2 oz. We don't know the final mintage for the 08-08 sets.
This is a good result for Buffalo coin holders as the numbers went down.
$100 $50 $25 $10 Total
3086 2577 2676 3544 11,883 2006
4425 3930 3900 5783 18,038 2007
2876 2253 2481 3706 9,489 2008
For the vertically challenged......
Miles
So it cost a beer, give a cheer because we are all wieners.
It's easy to go back now and think "shoulda, coulda, woulda."
Thanks Eric, congrats 7/8
And the platinum 4-coin sets??
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Jim
I copied his message from 10/17/2008:
<< <i>Guys I just bought some 08 fractionals proof and unc-w plats I needed to cover holes in my extended families sets. I suggested weeks ago that people who needed the coins just sit back because they would very likely be back much cheaper. Now I am suggesting that if you want these coins do not play a game of chicken with the mint go buy them. Also I would like to point out that I think the Unc-w run was SMALL, maybe crazy small.
Best Wishes
Thanks
Eric >>
Eric's advice to buy 08-W APEs on 10/17/2008
<< <i>Guys >>
That is it, that is all you have to say
thank you
I knew it would happen.
Full Disclosure: I invested heavily in the 2008-W $10 proof.
We have been a forward looking bunch and have had a good run over the last 5 years looking to new issues for quality growth in our collections and in some cases to make a buck but this period is by and large ending with the likely exception of a few first spouse issues.
My advice to those who will listen is go work on your back dates. Currently I am completing the following:
4 coin set of $10 mint state "w" mint mark gold in ms-70 (1999-w, 2006-w, 2007-w, 2008-w) ngc multi coin holder
4 coin set of $5 mint state "w" mint mark gold in ms-70 (1999-w, 2006-w, 2007-w, 2008-w) ngc multi coin holder
5 coin mint state "w" buffalo type set in 70 ($50, $25, $10, $5, plus a $1 buff mint state dollar) pcgs multi coin holder
1997-2008 $50 proof platinum eagles ngc-70
2005-2008 $50 mint state platinum eagle date run type set pcgs-70 in a 4 coin holder
1997 inaugural reverse proof and 2007 anniversary reverse proof pair ngc two coin holder
1997-2008 $25 proof platinum eagles ngc-70
2005-2008 $25 mint state platinum eagle date run type set pcgs-70 four coin holder
$10 plats are good too but not working on it right now.
2007-2010 $10 mint state gold Liberty set ngc 70 in a 4 coin holder
Notice all these sets are:
Closed/finite
High Grade
Mostly mint state.
Rare with high bullion content.
Stay off the 20,000 plus mintage high dollar coins rolling out of the Mint from now on. Go buy the closed fractional backdates as money allows over the next couple years. There will be a few new mint issues that are in a collectable mintage range ... a few. Dont focus on the new weak few and over look the more numerous and better past. The flipper/dealer inventory dissipation cycle is under way. It is a fading opportunity.
Eric
Ditto that 7/8 U da Mon!