<< <i>Looking forward to your book, Eric. Perhaps it'll help bring some new platinum collectors into the fold. >>
Well you can be certain that there is a well researched and lengthy section about why changing reverse plats are likely to be one of tomorrows MEGA sets.
<< <i> I sent my “notes” to KP and they were kind enough to offer to buy the study and publish it so I signed the rights of the text over to them and they plan on printing a serious moderns book in the spring-summer of next year after making some improvements. In all the text is composed of:
Eric Jordan >>
GREAT NEWS, ERIC! And in a crummy economy! Be sure you blast your horn loud and clear when it comes out, so we can all get one!
Guys please count off the Liberty Issues from start of program to end if you know. >>
Hi Eric,
Sorry, I do not understand the above satatement. Do you think Spouce Liberty coins (Jefferson, Jackson, Martin Van Buren, and James Buchanan’s Liberty) are worthwhile collecting or NOT? If worthwhite, proofs or uncirculated? Thanks!
My favorite commem for potential appreciation is the (non)Spouse 2008 Jackson's Liberty $10 gold. Mintage is 7806 proof and 4754 uncirculated. Great classic obverse and well-designed coin overall. The proof looks *much* better than the uncirc and I suspect it will fetch a higher price in a few years (similar to the 2008-W plats). It is *much* scarcer and more attractive than the 2000-W Library of Congress gold/platinum commem, but look at the difference in price.
Many who pass on the First Spouse series will collect the non-Spouse "short set" with 18th and 19th century classic motifs. The 2008 Van Buren's Liberty $10 gold is still available from the Mint, but I think there's a reasonable chance that its final mintage will be similar to the Jackson's Liberty coin.
Lets think about it... Unc Jackie is a seriosly ugly coin struck on .2 oz of gold that cost 4 grand with a 5,000 mintage. The much loved first hags are struck on a half oz of gold. Some of them are attractive and are starting to come in at under 5,000 coins. Guys all the Liberty subset with less than 5,000 coins are a wonderful buy as are the good looking non hag issues with less than 5,000 sold. Any Hag including the dogs with a sub 4,500 mintage is a wonderful buy.
<< <i>Lets think about it... Unc Jackie is a seriosly ugly coin struck on .2 oz of gold that cost 4 grand with a 5,000 mintage. The much loved first hags are struck on a half oz of gold. Some of them are attractive and are starting to come in at under 5,000 coins. Guys all the Liberty subset with less than 5,000 coins are a wonderful buy as are the good looking non hag issues with less than 5,000 sold. Any Hag including the dogs with a sub 4,500 mintage is a wonderful buy. >>
This is all very logical, but a new paradigm may emerge with these, somewhat independent of mintages. I agree that the proofs will end up more valuable than the uncs, for instance. I also wouldn't be surprised if some sub-5000 mintage coins languish for a long, long time, especially if gold stays up. Be fun to watch!
I agree that they may not be a quick flip. Jackie was not a quick flip either. He did nothing for a while but then I by and large am not a flipper. If they take 5-10 years to start to move so be it. I am not collecting the series just the lib subset and the good looking pieces that have very low mintage....... in short cherry picking the series and let the dogs pass.....
Its good to have the time to talk to you guys again....
<< <i>I agree that they may not be a quick flip. Jackie was not a quick flip either. He did nothing for a while but then I by and large am not a flipper. If they take 5-10 years to start to move so be it. I am not collecting the series just the lib subset and the good looking pieces that have very low mintage....... in short cherry picking the series and lets the dogs pass.....
Its good to have the time to talk to you guys again.... >>
I think that in the end, the unc Liberty sub-set will be more valuable then the proof Liberty sub-set.
The price-action in the modern commems have historical proof (no pun intended) that the uncs will fare better in the run.
Like Eric said, there may be some time to cherry pick these. I, on the other hand, think that when the 2010 BL is done there will be a pop on the sub-set.
The sub-set will be popular and promoted no doubt. Two ounces of gold with beautiful classic designs all for about $2,500. I can see these in a nice 4-coin holder.
>>Guys all the Liberty subset with less than 5,000 coins are a wonderful buy as are the good looking non hag issues with less than 5,000 sold.<<
I would add that all the Liberty subset *proofs* with less than 10,000 mintage (Jackson and likely Van Buren) are a major buy at today's prices. especially given their enhanced appearance compared to the uncircs. The Jackson has less than 13,000 struck in *both* finishes. No non-spouse commem comes close. The $5 Jackie Robinson proof has a mintage of about 24K and still commands around $500. The Jackson's Liberty $10 proof, the most "common" type, has twice the amount of gold and one-third the mintage of the JR (7,806) and can be found for around $700 or less. As a type coin with a seriously low mintage split between two finishes, the Jackson's Liberty should be a clear winner over the next several years. (In my opinion, of course.)
>>The price-action in the modern commems have historical proof (no pun intended) that the uncs will fare better in the run.<<
The ratio for most modern commems is 3 to 1 or more for proofs vs. uncircs. The ratio for Jackson's Liberty is less than 2 proofs to 1 uncirc. As the 2008-W Platinum Eagles demonstrate, proofs with a higher mintage can be worth more than uncirculated coins with a lower mintage. It's all a matter of relative demand.
This is a listing of the things we have been thinking about lately.
Introduction: Counting the Cost or 20 Years of Wandering Choosing Our Course
Collecting forms: A product of the coinage environment.
Primary Design Change Rates since 1793 and it’s past, present and future impact. Understanding Rare Coin Market Behavior: Stable Designs Unstable Designs Dawn of Changing Reverse Series. Competition Among Series With Different Structures.
Series Life Cycles- Understanding Infant Keys What creates them. When to buy them- Market Inventory, Absorption, Price & Time When to expect them- Typical Inaugural Spike & Sales Collapse Series Life Cycles and Growth Rates Long Term Growth Among Denominations- David & Goliath
Moderns as Design and Denomination Based Type Rarities Mint state type coin ranking for the last 200 years and its lessons. Proof type coin ranking since 1859 and its lessons.
Moderns and Classics are they in the Same Family?
Interaction of Precious Metals Prices and Numismatic Premiums
Common Pitfalls & Things to Remember Gradeflation, Crack Outs, and Special Tags Erosion of 70 Grade Premiums After Initial Issue Classic High Grade Markets Indexed to Inflation & Gold- Lessons Learned Coin Dealer Proverbs
The Series: Lincoln Type Cents Jefferson Type Nickels
Fifty State Quarters basic mint state Fifty State Quarters clad proofs Fifty State Quarters silver proofs
Sacagawea –Native American Dollars basic mint state Sacagawea –Native American Dollars proof
Presidential Dollars basic mint state Presidential Dollars proofs
American Eagle Silver Dollars Mint State- The Modern Morgan American Eagle Silver Dollars Proof
Clad Commemoratives Halves Proof and Mint State Proof Commemorative Silver Dollars Mint State Commemorative Silver Dollars
$5 Mint State Gold Commemoratives $5 Proof Gold Commemoratives
$5 Mint State Gold Eagles $10 Mint State Gold Eagles $25 Mint State Gold Eagles $50 Mint State Gold Eagles
A 60 Trillion Dollar Wind at Your Collections Back-Ultra Long Cycle Taxable Events Bracket Creep- Who are the “Rich” in 2020? Tax Deferred Retirement-The Taxman’s Time Machine. Energy Based Tax Policy & Cost- Your Material Price Floor. Monetization of Debt.
Modern Coins and Estate Planning: Shielding the Children Through Heirlooms
Self Directed IRAs-The Opportunities and Pitfalls
Making the Most Out of Your Self Directed IRA
Appendices: Defining the ratios Modern Coin Dealers Enabling Legislation and its Long Term Influence on the Series Trends in The US Mint’s Weekly Sales Report Master Mintage Listings of All Proof Eagles 1986 to 2008 Master Mintage Listings of All Mint State Eagles 1986 to 2008 Master Mintage Listings of All Modern Commemoratives
<< <i>>>Guys all the Liberty subset with less than 5,000 coins are a wonderful buy as are the good looking non hag issues with less than 5,000 sold.<<
I would add that all the Liberty subset *proofs* with less than 10,000 mintage (Jackson and likely Van Buren) are a major buy at today's prices. especially given their enhanced appearance compared to the uncircs. The Jackson has less than 13,000 struck in *both* finishes. No non-spouse commem comes close. The $5 Jackie Robinson proof has a mintage of about 24K and still commands around $500. The Jackson's Liberty $10 proof, the most "common" type, has twice the amount of gold and one-third the mintage of the JR (7,806) and can be found for around $700 or less. As a type coin with a seriously low mintage split between two finishes, the Jackson's Liberty should be a clear winner over the next several years. (In my opinion, of course.)
>>The price-action in the modern commems have historical proof (no pun intended) that the uncs will fare better in the run.<<
The ratio for most modern commems is 3 to 1 or more for proofs vs. uncircs. The ratio for Jackson's Liberty is less than 2 proofs to 1 uncirc. As the 2008-W Platinum Eagles demonstrate, proofs with a higher mintage can be worth more than uncirculated coins with a lower mintage. It's all a matter of relative demand. >>
The proof Firsts may well be fine coins. Take a look through the gray sheet and notice that almost every coin selling at a strong mark up over melt is a mint state coin. The only exception is the proof plats are stronger that the mint state issues. This has as much to do with an inadequate number of set members as it does finish or interseries mintage relationships. If the Unc plats with changing reverse were a 12 coin set they would be something to behold. I do like the Jackson Libs and bought a pair of them last week and like many of you I am paying attention to the Van Buren pending close.
Eric, Your outline looks like a "must read: for anyone who is serious about coins as an investment and/or tax hedge. I am anticipating a terrific read when it is released. Keep us posted. On another note, is there any chance we could buy these directly from you and get them in the "coveted" First Strike edition
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<< <i>I agree that they may not be a quick flip. Jackie was not a quick flip either. He did nothing for a while but then I by and large am not a flipper. If they take 5-10 years to start to move so be it. I am not collecting the series just the lib subset and the good looking pieces that have very low mintage....... in short cherry picking the series and let the dogs pass.....
Its good to have the time to talk to you guys again.... >>
Of the hags out so far, could you name the dogs that you would bypass. also I have noticed some huge premiums for First Stike on some of these hags. any comment?
Something to watch for - I think the Mint might drop the price on the Van Buren's Liberty coins later this week, given that gold has been under $1,000 for the past several days.
I would think the hold period for the first lady coins could be longer then the Jackie Robinson coin for the reason that it is a different area of collecting then the commemerative set.
Also I don't think the material the coin is struck from means to much on the Jackie Robinson coin.
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
<< <i>I agree that they may not be a quick flip. Jackie was not a quick flip either. He did nothing for a while but then I by and large am not a flipper. If they take 5-10 years to start to move so be it. I am not collecting the series just the lib subset and the good looking pieces that have very low mintage....... in short cherry picking the series and let the dogs pass.....
Its good to have the time to talk to you guys again.... >>
Of the hags out so far, could you name the dogs that you would bypass. also I have noticed some huge premiums for First Stike on some of these hags. any comment? >>
In my view even though some of them have been melted all 2007 dated issues are dogs.
Mint State Adams has some hope, both forms of Jackson have good prospects but I think the unc will be stronger (others think proof and thats ok its a question of degrees), Van Buren in all forms looks good ifthe mintages stay down. Now what we dont want is to have 3 LIB issues all with about the same 4.2-4.8K mintages because that dilutes the key dates impact.
I hope Julia tyler does not sell well. Good looking and a sub 4,000 mintage would be awsome.....
That said guys the 2008 proof plats, w mint mark fractional gold all forms at todays prices are outstanding buys. We cant forget that the first hags have serious cohesion problems and it will hurt the set for years. They are not 3,xxx mintage proofs with a stable obverse. Or 6,000-9000 mintage gold with 1-10 million total population either.
<< <i>Eric, Your outline looks like a "must read: for anyone who is serious about coins as an investment and/or tax hedge. I am anticipating a terrific read when it is released. Keep us posted. On another note, is there any chance we could buy these directly from you and get then in the "coveted" First Strike edition >>
If you could buy only ONE coin strictly for investment from all of the recent modern issues regardless of price (drawing from the platinum series, W-gold, First Hags, ect.), which coin at this very moment in time would you purchase and why?
Remember the freedom of information act request.......... >>
Alright guys...........Fiscal year has ended.
It is time to ask your congressional offices for help in obtaining those final AUDITED mintage numbers for 2008. Time to put all those arguements about mintages to rest...........
They only STRUCK 4,500 of the 2008 proof platinum eagle quarter. Typical scrap rate is 15-30 %, weekly sale report said 3891 and thats normally a little high so its either a for certain sub 4,000 mintage proof design based rare proof or it fell off the clift into the mintage abyss. It sells for less than twice melt. Its a no doubt strong cheap ride or a MEGA coin.
I almost put the 1/4 first because of the supposedly larger collector base, but think that in the long run, more whales will be attracted to the half-ouncers. Bigger coins, nicer to look at--and the lowest mintages overall. We'll find out in about ten years! Could be these never get off the ground at all...
Eric, coinnews.net has the 2008 W plat proof at 1,056 singles and 2,598 sets, total of 3,654. And the quarter oz at 1,293 + 2,598 = 3,891. I don't know their source...weekly sales, you(?)
I have thought all along that the 1/2 was smaller in mintage than the 1/4. Is there something new?
<< <i>The hard part is finding any platinum coins to purchase really..... . >>
Ain't that the truth. Until platinum goes back up to 2K or folks have forgotten about last year's peak, availability at fair prices is going to be hurtin'. I have only two common dates left to buy in my 1/2-ounce proof OGP collection and they are just not showing up.
Eric, I'd also like a refresher on the your "coins struck" figure--and an order form for the book when it's out!
Everything on your list is an excellent choice and if the weekly sales report was right then the half may be the better coin.
If a profound downward final final number shows up its likely to be in the quarter not the half becasue they struck 5400 of them. >>
HI Gang!
I spoke with Eric on the phone several weeks ago, and we discussed this very issue. One of the great joys to me in collecting coins since 1969 is that you frequently get to enjoy not only the coins themselves, but the history surrounding them (and not to mention fellow collectors such as Eric as well)!
However, too frequently a coin's history is something that occurred long ago, and we have to read about. In this case, we are witnessing numismatic history as it occurs, although it may not feel like it now because we are all too close to it.
In this case, however, we are about to see the rarest proof coin ever issued by the United States since 1915 crowned any day now. It will either be the 2008-W platinum one-quarter ounce proof (the $25.00 coin), or the 2008-W platinum one-half ounce proof (the $50.00 coin).
That is high-drama in the numismatic world!
I agree with Eric: whichever coin that turns out to be will reign supreme among all modern coins regardless of medal content, and all we are waiting on now is the final 2008 audited figures from the mint.
Personally, without speaking for Eric, I also think the platinum burnished series will do well, and in particuliar the 2006-W one-half ounce ($50.00) burnished uncirculated coin, with a final audited mintage of 2577 pieces, which is the lowest-mintage (hence: rarest) United States coin ever issued since 1915.
Additionally, I also believe in the "bigger is better" arguement, which is why I was drawn to the 2006-W platinum burnished uncirculated $100.00 coin.
This coin is the rarest high-denomination coin ever issued by the United States since 1915, with an original mintage of 3060, less several hundred melted, leaving only some 2800 or so survivors in ALL grades! As a silver dollar (or crown) sized coin, it also best displays the beautiful design. It is also the lowest-mintage example from the entire series of platinum $100.00 coins, and hence their "key" as well.
"2006-W one-half ounce ($50.00) burnished uncirculated coin, with a final audited mintage of 2577 pieces, which is the lowest-mintage (hence: rarest) United States coin ever issued since 1915"
"Devil's advocate" - If I am not mistaken, the US Mint issued less than (1,700) 1936 Brilliant Proof Cents. Yet, the coin even in nice gem red condition trades at only a few thousand dollars or so 73 years later (and we are talking about a coin in the incredibly popular Lincoln cent arena). Where you have plat coins with 4,000-5,000 mintages that are worth about "melt", the 2577 mintage becomes a "relative" mintage figure - no?
Wondercoin
P.S. I am still buying plat coins - I am just trying to properly assess my possible "wait time" for the coins to "explode" in value - and I know I do not have 73 years left to wait!
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
The one-ounce plats are an enigma. I don't think I'm alone in finding them less desirable than smaller denominations. I can't pinpoint why exactly--too much of a slab of metal, perhaps, or maybe their desirability by investors and bullion hoarders. I am very curious if they will find even close to the same scale of collector base as the other sizes. I think you're right that the 1-ounce '06 unc-w would be a great pickup for a collection, though.
There's one on the Bay right now for $1899. Not bad.
Comments
no more platinum coins to collect.
What a shame.
<< <i>Looking forward to your book, Eric. Perhaps it'll help bring some new platinum collectors into the fold.
Well you can be certain that there is a well researched and lengthy section about why changing reverse plats are likely to be one of tomorrows MEGA sets.
<< <i>
I sent my “notes” to KP and they were kind enough to offer to buy the study and publish it so I signed the rights of the text over to them and they plan on printing a serious moderns book in the spring-summer of next year after making some improvements. In all the text is composed of:
Eric Jordan >>
GREAT NEWS, ERIC! And in a crummy economy! Be sure you blast your horn loud and clear when it comes out, so we can all get one!
cheers eric!!!!!
Good to see you back on the boards, Congats on the book, I'm looking forward to its release.
http://numismaticnews.net/article/Panels_evaluate_First_Spouse_art/
<< <i>
http://numismaticnews.net/article/Panels_evaluate_First_Spouse_art/ >>
What president is BL
Guys please count off the Liberty Issues from start of program to end if you know.
Jackson
Van Buren
Buchanan Liberty BL
PS Jackson finished at 4754 in UNC. Mary Todd looks like an attractive coin so may do well with the TV shows.
<< <i>
<< <i>
http://numismaticnews.net/article/Panels_evaluate_First_Spouse_art/ >>
Guys please count off the Liberty Issues from start of program to end if you know. >>
Hi Eric,
Sorry, I do not understand the above satatement. Do you think Spouce Liberty coins (Jefferson, Jackson, Martin Van Buren, and James Buchanan’s Liberty) are worthwhile collecting or NOT? If worthwhite, proofs or uncirculated? Thanks!
Al
Many who pass on the First Spouse series will collect the non-Spouse "short set" with 18th and 19th century classic motifs. The 2008 Van Buren's Liberty $10 gold is still available from the Mint, but I think there's a reasonable chance that its final mintage will be similar to the Jackson's Liberty coin.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Lets think about it... Unc Jackie is a seriosly ugly coin struck on .2 oz of gold that cost 4 grand with a 5,000 mintage. The much loved first hags are struck on a half oz of gold. Some of them are attractive and are starting to come in at under 5,000 coins. Guys all the Liberty subset with less than 5,000 coins are a wonderful buy as are the good looking non hag issues with less than 5,000 sold. Any Hag including the dogs with a sub 4,500 mintage is a wonderful buy. >>
This is all very logical, but a new paradigm may emerge with these, somewhat independent of mintages. I agree that the proofs will end up more valuable than the uncs, for instance. I also wouldn't be surprised if some sub-5000 mintage coins languish for a long, long time, especially if gold stays up. Be fun to watch!
Its good to have the time to talk to you guys again....
<< <i>I agree that they may not be a quick flip. Jackie was not a quick flip either. He did nothing for a while but then I by and large am not a flipper. If they take 5-10 years to start to move so be it. I am not collecting the series just the lib subset and the good looking pieces that have very low mintage....... in short cherry picking the series and lets the dogs pass.....
Its good to have the time to talk to you guys again.... >>
The feeling is VERY mutual!!
The price-action in the modern commems have historical proof (no pun intended) that the uncs will fare better in the run.
Like Eric said, there may be some time to cherry pick these. I, on the other hand, think that when the 2010 BL is done there will be a pop on the sub-set.
The sub-set will be popular and promoted no doubt. Two ounces of gold with beautiful classic designs all for about $2,500. I can see these in a nice 4-coin holder.
R95
I would add that all the Liberty subset *proofs* with less than 10,000 mintage (Jackson and likely Van Buren) are a major buy at today's prices. especially given their enhanced appearance compared to the uncircs. The Jackson has less than 13,000 struck in *both* finishes. No non-spouse commem comes close. The $5 Jackie Robinson proof has a mintage of about 24K and still commands around $500. The Jackson's Liberty $10 proof, the most "common" type, has twice the amount of gold and one-third the mintage of the JR (7,806) and can be found for around $700 or less. As a type coin with a seriously low mintage split between two finishes, the Jackson's Liberty should be a clear winner over the next several years. (In my opinion, of course.)
>>The price-action in the modern commems have historical proof (no pun intended) that the uncs will fare better in the run.<<
The ratio for most modern commems is 3 to 1 or more for proofs vs. uncircs. The ratio for Jackson's Liberty is less than 2 proofs to 1 uncirc. As the 2008-W Platinum Eagles demonstrate, proofs with a higher mintage can be worth more than uncirculated coins with a lower mintage. It's all a matter of relative demand.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Introduction:
Counting the Cost or 20 Years of Wandering
Choosing Our Course
Collecting forms: A product of the coinage environment.
Primary Design Change Rates since 1793 and it’s past, present and future impact.
Understanding Rare Coin Market Behavior:
Stable Designs
Unstable Designs
Dawn of Changing Reverse Series.
Competition Among Series With Different Structures.
Series Life Cycles- Understanding Infant Keys
What creates them.
When to buy them- Market Inventory, Absorption, Price & Time
When to expect them- Typical Inaugural Spike & Sales Collapse
Series Life Cycles and Growth Rates
Long Term Growth Among Denominations- David & Goliath
Moderns as Design and Denomination Based Type Rarities
Mint state type coin ranking for the last 200 years and its lessons.
Proof type coin ranking since 1859 and its lessons.
Moderns and Classics are they in the Same Family?
Interaction of Precious Metals Prices and Numismatic Premiums
Common Pitfalls & Things to Remember
Gradeflation, Crack Outs, and Special Tags
Erosion of 70 Grade Premiums After Initial Issue
Classic High Grade Markets Indexed to Inflation & Gold- Lessons Learned
Coin Dealer Proverbs
The Series:
Lincoln Type Cents
Jefferson Type Nickels
Fifty State Quarters basic mint state
Fifty State Quarters clad proofs
Fifty State Quarters silver proofs
Sacagawea –Native American Dollars basic mint state
Sacagawea –Native American Dollars proof
Presidential Dollars basic mint state
Presidential Dollars proofs
American Eagle Silver Dollars Mint State- The Modern Morgan
American Eagle Silver Dollars Proof
Clad Commemoratives Halves Proof and Mint State
Proof Commemorative Silver Dollars
Mint State Commemorative Silver Dollars
$5 Mint State Gold Commemoratives
$5 Proof Gold Commemoratives
$5 Mint State Gold Eagles
$10 Mint State Gold Eagles
$25 Mint State Gold Eagles
$50 Mint State Gold Eagles
$5 Proof Gold Eagles
$10 Proof Gold Eagles
$25 Proof Gold Eagles
$50 Proof Gold Eagles
Buffalo Gold and Silver all issues
$10 Gold Commemoratives all issues
First Spouse $10 Gold all issues
$20 Ultra High Relief Gold Eagle
Rarest Type Set since World War I
$10 Proof Platinum Eagles
$25 Proof Platinum Eagles
$50 Proof Platinum Eagles
$100 Proof Platinum Eagles
Mint State Platinum Eagles- Changing Reverse
Mint State Platinum Eagles- Business Strikes
Concluding Numismatic Comments
Primary Recommendations
Circulating Coinage
Silver Coinage
Gold Coinage
Platinum Coinage
A 60 Trillion Dollar Wind at Your Collections Back-Ultra Long Cycle Taxable Events
Bracket Creep- Who are the “Rich” in 2020?
Tax Deferred Retirement-The Taxman’s Time Machine.
Energy Based Tax Policy & Cost- Your Material Price Floor.
Monetization of Debt.
Modern Coins and Estate Planning: Shielding the Children Through Heirlooms
Self Directed IRAs-The Opportunities and Pitfalls
Making the Most Out of Your Self Directed IRA
Appendices:
Defining the ratios
Modern Coin Dealers
Enabling Legislation and its Long Term Influence on the Series
Trends in The US Mint’s Weekly Sales Report
Master Mintage Listings of All Proof Eagles 1986 to 2008
Master Mintage Listings of All Mint State Eagles 1986 to 2008
Master Mintage Listings of All Modern Commemoratives
<< <i>>>Guys all the Liberty subset with less than 5,000 coins are a wonderful buy as are the good looking non hag issues with less than 5,000 sold.<<
I would add that all the Liberty subset *proofs* with less than 10,000 mintage (Jackson and likely Van Buren) are a major buy at today's prices. especially given their enhanced appearance compared to the uncircs. The Jackson has less than 13,000 struck in *both* finishes. No non-spouse commem comes close. The $5 Jackie Robinson proof has a mintage of about 24K and still commands around $500. The Jackson's Liberty $10 proof, the most "common" type, has twice the amount of gold and one-third the mintage of the JR (7,806) and can be found for around $700 or less. As a type coin with a seriously low mintage split between two finishes, the Jackson's Liberty should be a clear winner over the next several years. (In my opinion, of course.)
>>The price-action in the modern commems have historical proof (no pun intended) that the uncs will fare better in the run.<<
The ratio for most modern commems is 3 to 1 or more for proofs vs. uncircs. The ratio for Jackson's Liberty is less than 2 proofs to 1 uncirc. As the 2008-W Platinum Eagles demonstrate, proofs with a higher mintage can be worth more than uncirculated coins with a lower mintage. It's all a matter of relative demand. >>
The proof Firsts may well be fine coins. Take a look through the gray sheet and notice that almost every coin selling at a strong mark up over melt is a mint state coin. The only exception is the proof plats are stronger that the mint state issues. This has as much to do with an inadequate number of set members as it does finish or interseries mintage relationships. If the Unc plats with changing reverse were a 12 coin set they would be something to behold. I do like the Jackson Libs and bought a pair of them last week and like many of you I am paying attention to the Van Buren pending close.
<< <i>I agree that they may not be a quick flip. Jackie was not a quick flip either. He did nothing for a while but then I by and large am not a flipper. If they take 5-10 years to start to move so be it. I am not collecting the series just the lib subset and the good looking pieces that have very low mintage....... in short cherry picking the series and let the dogs pass.....
Its good to have the time to talk to you guys again.... >>
Of the hags out so far, could you name the dogs that you would bypass. also I have noticed some huge premiums for First Stike on some of these hags. any comment?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Also I don't think the material the coin is struck from means to much on the Jackie Robinson coin.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I knew it would happen.
It is past the 29th shouldn't we be getting the final revised numbers?
<< <i>
<< <i>I agree that they may not be a quick flip. Jackie was not a quick flip either. He did nothing for a while but then I by and large am not a flipper. If they take 5-10 years to start to move so be it. I am not collecting the series just the lib subset and the good looking pieces that have very low mintage....... in short cherry picking the series and let the dogs pass.....
Its good to have the time to talk to you guys again.... >>
Of the hags out so far, could you name the dogs that you would bypass. also I have noticed some huge premiums for First Stike on some of these hags. any comment? >>
In my view even though some of them have been melted all 2007 dated issues are dogs.
Mint State Adams has some hope, both forms of Jackson have good prospects but I think the unc will be stronger (others think proof and thats ok its a question of degrees), Van Buren in all forms looks good ifthe mintages stay down. Now what we dont want is to have 3 LIB issues all with about the same 4.2-4.8K mintages because that dilutes the key dates impact.
I hope Julia tyler does not sell well. Good looking and a sub 4,000 mintage would be awsome.....
That said guys the 2008 proof plats, w mint mark fractional gold all forms at todays prices are outstanding buys. We cant forget that the first hags have serious cohesion problems and it will hurt the set for years. They are not 3,xxx mintage proofs with a stable obverse. Or 6,000-9000 mintage gold with 1-10 million total population either.
Just my two cents
Eric Jordan
<< <i>Eric, Your outline looks like a "must read: for anyone who is serious about coins as an investment and/or tax hedge. I am anticipating a terrific read when it is released. Keep us posted. On another note, is there any chance we could buy these directly from you and get then in the "coveted" First Strike edition
... I agree ... great job!
If you could buy only ONE coin strictly for investment from all of the recent modern issues regardless of price (drawing from the platinum series, W-gold, First Hags, ect.),
which coin at this very moment in time would you purchase and why?
Thank you!
1) 2008 proof plat 1/2-ounce
2) 2008 proof plat 1/4-ounce
3) 1-ounce proof 2008 buffalo (established series, low mintage--and no, I didn't get one)
4) Any other 2008 proof or unc-w fractional buff except the unc 1/2-ounce
Be interesting to see what Eric says.
Remember the freedom of information act request..........
<< <i>1.) 2008 quater oz proof plat.
Remember the freedom of information act request.......... >>
Alright guys...........Fiscal year has ended.
It is time to ask your congressional offices for help in obtaining those final AUDITED mintage numbers for 2008.
Time to put all those arguements about mintages to rest...........
Everything on your list is an excellent choice and if the weekly sales report was right then the half may be the better coin.
If a profound downward final final number shows up its likely to be in the quarter not the half becasue they struck 5400 of them.
I have thought all along that the 1/2 was smaller in mintage than the 1/4. Is there something new?
R95
<< <i>Grits,
Everything on your list is an excellent choice and if the weekly sales report was right then the half may be the better coin.
If a profound downward final final number shows up its likely to be in the quarter not the half becasue they struck 5400 of them. >>
I sense you used FOIA to obtain number of various coins 'struck'.
Could you refresh us on numbers 'struck' for 2008 unc and proof plats??
Still would like to get 2006-W 1/10 unc coin.....
<< <i>The hard part is finding any platinum coins to purchase really.....
. >>
Ain't that the truth. Until platinum goes back up to 2K or folks have forgotten about last year's peak, availability at fair prices is going to be hurtin'. I have only two common dates left to buy in my 1/2-ounce proof OGP collection and they are just not showing up.
Eric, I'd also like a refresher on the your "coins struck" figure--and an order form for the book when it's out!
<< <i>Grits,
Everything on your list is an excellent choice and if the weekly sales report was right then the half may be the better coin.
If a profound downward final final number shows up its likely to be in the quarter not the half becasue they struck 5400 of them. >>
HI Gang!
I spoke with Eric on the phone several weeks ago, and we discussed this very issue. One of the great joys to me in collecting coins since 1969 is that you frequently
get to enjoy not only the coins themselves, but the history surrounding them (and not to mention fellow collectors such as Eric as well)!
However, too frequently a coin's history is something that occurred long ago, and we have to read about. In this case, we are witnessing numismatic history as it
occurs, although it may not feel like it now because we are all too close to it.
In this case, however, we are about to see the rarest proof coin ever issued by the United States since 1915 crowned any day now. It will either be the 2008-W
platinum one-quarter ounce proof (the $25.00 coin), or the 2008-W platinum one-half ounce proof (the $50.00 coin).
That is high-drama in the numismatic world!
I agree with Eric: whichever coin that turns out to be will reign supreme among all modern coins regardless of medal content, and all we are waiting on now is the
final 2008 audited figures from the mint.
Personally, without speaking for Eric, I also think the platinum burnished series will do well, and in particuliar the 2006-W one-half ounce ($50.00) burnished uncirculated
coin, with a final audited mintage of 2577 pieces, which is the lowest-mintage (hence: rarest) United States coin ever issued since 1915.
Additionally, I also believe in the "bigger is better" arguement, which is why I was drawn to the 2006-W platinum burnished uncirculated $100.00 coin.
This coin is the rarest high-denomination coin ever issued by the United States since 1915, with an original mintage of 3060, less several hundred melted, leaving only some
2800 or so survivors in ALL grades! As a silver dollar (or crown) sized coin, it also best displays the beautiful design. It is also the lowest-mintage example from the entire
series of platinum $100.00 coins, and hence their "key" as well.
Thoughts and comments?
David
"Devil's advocate" - If I am not mistaken, the US Mint issued less than (1,700) 1936 Brilliant Proof Cents. Yet, the coin even in nice gem red condition trades at only a few thousand dollars or so 73 years later (and we are talking about a coin in the incredibly popular Lincoln cent arena). Where you have plat coins with 4,000-5,000 mintages that are worth about "melt", the 2577 mintage becomes a "relative" mintage figure - no?
Wondercoin
P.S. I am still buying plat coins - I am just trying to properly assess my possible "wait time" for the coins to "explode" in value - and I know I do not have 73 years left to wait!
There's one on the Bay right now for $1899. Not bad.