If some of the immediate frenzy is being wrung out now, it should be interesting to see what happens to prices if the mint distributes another round of deliveries as they claim will occur during the first week of November.
I've flirted with buying at these premiums as I'm still waiting for my original order to be filled. I'm waiting and watching--keeping my fingers crossed.
Received my sets today, and immediately wrapped it in another box, added the invoices, paper taped it, and mailed it.
Three separate invoices. All with True View and FS/20 Ann designation.
Free Quarterly Special 8 Free Platinum Membership Remainder Regular
$52.10 to ship registered mail. I think that was an error. The base rate was $20.25, then when they declared the registered value of $25K, it added $30.85 more! And being in Europe it will take 10 days to get there, a few to photo, a few more to grade, and another 10 days to get back here. At leasst with 3 invoices I get the grade notices to be excited over!
I just received my two gold 3 piece sets yesterday by register mai. It took two weeks for me to receive because registered is so low. I opened them up because I am not going to have them graded. They are gorgeous.
<< <i>How much does a first strike designation command on a price of a gold or silver set? Say they were graded MS 69 PR 69 PR 69??? >>
Virtually all the graded sets currently on the market are First Strike. The 30 day window for that designation is just now closing. Time will tell what the premium will be. There are a large percentage of gold sets (A12) that were sent in early. Not that many silver sets. Not that many two piece sets.
My guess would be that First Strike gold coins at 69 will command little premium, maybe 10%. First Strike silver coins may go for double or triple similar coins without the designation because so few of the coins were shipped and made it in to PCGS during the first 30 days. First Strike 70 golds will have a premium, my guess is a 25% premium over similar looking 70s without the designation. The reasoning in my mind is that virtually all the First Strike 70s will have made the grade on one shot, while some of the latter 70s will be resubmits upon resubmits.
I'll toot my own horn for one of those times my guesses comes close. I posted the following guess on September 6th when someone asked about buying at presale for $3000. The high so far for a raw set was $6100 and the price has backed off since then.
The price is going to fluctuate widely. All of the following is opinion and based on a cloudy crystal ball: I believe there will be a spike high sometime in the fall at around $6,000. It may go down a bit after that. However, $3000 will be a strong floor for the short term as there will be many buyers that got shut out at that price. As the price of gold moves it will help or hurt the set, with three ounces of bullion value. I believe that if gold reaches $1000 next year, the set is going to the moon ($10k+
3 AGE Set: Prices continue to decline week to week from an average set price of $4983 to $4767. The average ungraded set yesterday appears to have sold at $4,661. Another interesting note is that there has been some profit taking of sets that were purchased on ebay or yahoo in earlier auctions. Also, there appear to be a lot more sets going unsold.
PCGS Graded sets: Only 6 all-70 sets have sold so far on ebay, for an average price of $13,073 and rising. Last night's auction ended at $15,889. The full 69 set of which 4 have sold have an average price of $5,200.
Comare this with the NGC sets which are much, much more plentiful: All 70 of which 70 have sold: $7,566 average and declining...$6,950 and $6900 the last two selling. All 69 of which 34 have sold: $4,957 average and declining; last two prices $4,601 and 4,511.
Individually graded coins:
PCGS MS-69: 16 sold at an average price of $823--relatively stable NGC MS-69: 31 sold a " $700-
PCGS MS-70 15 sold $1874 average price and declinging NGC MS-70 48 sold $1227 and declining
PCGS Rev Proof 69 : None traded NGC " : 8 sold $2,256
PCGS Rev Proof 70: 12 Sold - avg $5,828. NGC : 12 Sold - avg $5,088
3 AGE Set: Prices continue to decline week to week from an average set price of $4983 to $4767. The average ungraded set yesterday appears to have sold at $4,661. Another interesting note is that there has been some profit taking of sets that were purchased on ebay or yahoo in earlier auctions. Also, there appear to be a lot more sets going unsold.
PCGS Graded sets: Only 6 all-70 sets have sold so far on ebay, for an average price of $13,073 and rising. Last night's auction ended at $15,889. The full 69 set of which 4 have sold have an average price of $5,200.
Comare this with the NGC sets which are much, much more plentiful: All 70 of which 70 have sold: $7,566 average and declining...$6,950 and $6900 the last two selling. All 69 of which 34 have sold: $4,957 average and declining; last two prices $4,601 and 4,511.
Individually graded coins:
PCGS MS-69: 16 sold at an average price of $823--relatively stable NGC MS-69: 31 sold a " $700-
PCGS MS-70 15 sold $1874 average price and declinging NGC MS-70 48 sold $1227 and declining
PCGS Rev Proof 69 : None traded NGC " : 8 sold $2,256
PCGS Rev Proof 70: 12 Sold - avg $5,828. NGC : 12 Sold - avg $5,088
<< <i>What I am afraid of, is that we are starting to see sets
that may not have made the grade. They are broken out
of holders and put back into the coin capsules and sold as
virgin sets. I believe that in the sale of ASE Sets, this is what
is happening, on a number of them, from disreputable sellers. >>
So I guess, given your statement, is that raw sets in the future should sell at an even greater discount to graded sets than is currently happening? Interesting and disappointing if does work out like that.
<< <i>What I am afraid of, is that we are starting to see sets
that may not have made the grade. They are broken out
of holders and put back into the coin capsules and sold as
virgin sets. I believe that in the sale of ASE Sets, this is what
is happening, on a number of them, from disreputable sellers. >>
It is a shame that the mint packaging isn't more secure, but that is a minor thing considering the big picture.
Those that want graded coins will buy them. Those that want the sets in mint packaging will buy those. Those that want to submit have mostly run their course. There are only a few stragglers still looking to submit gold sets and they have now missed the first strike window. I don't see what is the big deal if a coin is 69 and back into mint packaging? Most all the gold coins are 69s. Those collectors looking for a 70 should pony up and buy one in a holder. There are a ton of reverse proof 70s available, and the other two coins may or may not be from an A12 set (3-coin-gold) at all.
It will be interesting to see if $4500 holds. If I had to bet, I would say no, that $4000 or even a bit lower, $3800 will be touched before Christmas. There will be many graded sets coming back to submitters, and I believe that the gold sets grading out at 69, especially the NGC 69s will not stay above $4500. The wildcard as usually is how gold trades. A big rally or a big dump will influence the price of these sets.
<< <i>What I am afraid of, is that we are starting to see sets
that may not have made the grade. They are broken out
of holders and put back into the coin capsules and sold as
virgin sets. I believe that in the sale of ASE Sets, this is what
is happening, on a number of them, from disreputable sellers. >>
So I guess, given your statement, is that raw sets in the future should sell at an even greater discount to graded sets than is currently happening? Interesting and disappointing if does work out like that. >>
\
Ran across raw set that had awesome snow white cameo on the prf.......even beat out my NGC 70s PRF
Prices on the undgraded sets clearly are off their peak 19%, with average daily prices on eBay now having declined over $1000 since their peak on 10/5. Currently there are some 36 ungraded sets avaialble on eBay, though most of them probably will not sell at their asking current prices.
If the mint is in deed making another distribution next week, additional supply should push down the prices of ungraded sets further as these are delivered and more sets get listed. The question after that is whether or not the next round of deliveries will be the last or not.
<< <i>Prices on the undgraded sets clearly are off their peak 19%, with average daily prices on eBay now having declined over $1000 since their peak on 10/5. Currently there are some 36 ungraded sets avaialble on eBay, though most of them probably will not sell at their asking current prices.
If the mint is in deed making another distribution next week, additional supply should push down the prices of ungraded sets further as these are delivered and more sets get listed. The question after that is whether or not the next round of deliveries will be the last or not. >>
Isn't this 11-6 mailing ... just from any returned sets to the Mint ?
The Ebay major AGE set dealers that I have tracked over the past 3 weeks , have limited or no supply for their upcoming listings.. except for one . This may be the 1st step where availabilty of AGE sets begins to tighten.
The big concern for the raw sets is quality . Have the sets been mishandled as they are bought and sold ????
The Ebay major AGE set dealers that I have tracked over the past 3 weeks , have limited or no supply for their upcoming listings.. except for one . This may be the 1st step where availabilty of AGE sets begins to tighten.
The big concern for the raw sets is quality . Have the sets been mishandled as they are bought and sold ???? >>
Quality? On the gold sets? I have not seen any reports of any 68 grades on the gold, only the silver. I think this is overblown, 98% of the gold coins are 69 or better. The sets have not traded that much, how much mishandling can happen in a hardwood case for encapsulated coins in one month?
Like I said in my previous post, I expect the supply to increase in the next week or two as many of the First Strike deadline submissions come back to the submitters and on to the market. These are not from the pro submitters, more from the amateurs who got in under the wire. For buyers looking for a low price this may be a good time to be looking, though it will probably not be the low low. The early December window may also be a good time for buyers as some cash strapped owners may look to sell to finance Christmas spending, that may be the short term low.
I believe that next year will be a better one for the AGE bulls. My crystal ball sometimes works, sometimes doesn't, but so far my predictions have been as good as anybody's. I expect continued weakness, with little new buying until January. Only bargain hunters are buying in here, and lower prices makes them want to continue to wait. The lower prices will drive some speculators to fold their hands, selling any remaining sets for whatever bid they can get, because their money is hot money and they can not or will not hold through the winter. The exception is for PCGS graded all-70 First Strike sets. Probably less than 200 all PCGS 70 First Strike sets will be assembled.
I have seen several AGE sets over the past week.. Some of the coins have nicks..the plastic lens have nicks.. the box having gouges etc. So use caution if buying a raw set. Ask questions....
<< <i>Isn't this 11-6 mailing ... just from any returned sets to the Mint ? >>
Gosh, I hope not. I wouldn't anticipate that the mint will receive many returns, unless severely damaged.
If I go on what I've been told by mint supervisors, (though I've all but given up on believing anything any of them tell me) the previous round of distribution was disappointing; they thought more would be delivered for distribution then.
Another round of deliveries is expected to be shipped from West Point, NY to the fulfillment center early next week. While they make no guarantees, one person who described himself as the senior manager overseeing the supervisors said that many of the people who had their order placed on 8/31 before the mint changed the language on their website (10 am) are apt to receive sets in the coming week or so--though he made clear that he would not committ to that as changes have occured in the past and people have been sorely disappointed.
<< <i>Gosh, I hope not. I wouldn't anticipate that the mint will receive many returns, unless severely damaged. >>
The Mint's own policy indicates you can return a damaged set for exchange or refund. Don't you think they would hold back some sets just incase someone wanted to exchange a damaged set? If none come back, then they would have these sets for distribution.
An A12 NGC graded all 69 set crossed at $3701. Buyers that shop around and are willing to be patient probably can get them for around that price or even a tad lower. Link to completed auction
Comments
<< <i>$4600 will seem like a bargain 2-3 months from now. >>
Looks like when the dust settles ..approx 1500 sets total went in for NGC and PCGS grading. Buy the dips!!
I've flirted with buying at these premiums as I'm still waiting for my original order to be filled. I'm waiting and watching--keeping my fingers crossed.
Done!
<< <i>Well, my dream of picking up a Regular Proof PCGS 70 to round out my set is on hold.
Regular Proof ebay
Ebay # 150048025231
current bid $4400
Wow, per his listing:
"I have sent in hundreds of sets and I only recieve a few of this coin in 70."
They call me "Pack the Ripper"
<< <i>All I can say is.... >>
collections: Maryland related coins & exonumia, 7070 Type set, and Video Arcade Tokens.
The Low Budget Y2K Registry Set
Linky
<< <i>Here you can buy a set for $1,850.00 >>
would not touch that with a ten foot pole
I can't bear to look.
My refresh button is wearing as we speak. HEEELLP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The anticipation of my first submission is tooooo much. Bounty or bust what will it be?
Rob
OK here are the results:
1 1 10991477 89993 2006-W $50 Eagle-20th Anniversary US MS69
2 1 10991478 89995 2006-W $50 Eagle-20th Anniversary Rev Proof US PR69
3 1 10991479 89997 2006-W $50 Eagle- 20th Anniversary US PR69DC
3 2 10991480 89997 2006-W $50 Eagle- 20th Anniversary US PR69DC
4 1 10991481 89993 2006-W $50 Eagle-20th Anniversary US MS70
5 1 10991482 89995 2006-W $50 Eagle-20th Anniversary Rev Proof US PR70
2 out of 6 not too shabby. Boy I was really hoping for the gold proof to get a 70 also so I could flip that set for $12 g's baby.
Maybe I should have sent in my 3rd set also. O well I am terribly thrilled with the results, I was quaking with the thoughts of 68's across the board.
<< <i>Here you can buy a set for $1,850.00
Linky >>
Looks like ebay killed the listing.
Three separate invoices. All with True View and FS/20 Ann designation.
Free Quarterly Special
8 Free Platinum Membership
Remainder Regular
$52.10 to ship registered mail. I think that was an error. The base rate was $20.25, then when they declared the registered value of $25K, it added $30.85 more! And being in Europe it will take 10 days to get there, a few to photo, a few more to grade, and another 10 days to get back here. At leasst with 3 invoices I get the grade notices to be excited over!
Camelot
has not been cancelled yet, 11/06.
SNMAN
<< <i>How much does a first strike designation command on a price of a gold or silver set? Say they were graded MS 69 PR 69 PR 69??? >>
Virtually all the graded sets currently on the market are First Strike. The 30 day window for that designation is just now closing. Time will tell what the premium will be. There are a large percentage of gold sets (A12) that were sent in early. Not that many silver sets. Not that many two piece sets.
My guess would be that First Strike gold coins at 69 will command little premium, maybe 10%. First Strike silver coins may go for double or triple similar coins without the designation because so few of the coins were shipped and made it in to PCGS during the first 30 days. First Strike 70 golds will have a premium, my guess is a 25% premium over similar looking 70s without the designation. The reasoning in my mind is that virtually all the First Strike 70s will have made the grade on one shot, while some of the latter 70s will be resubmits upon resubmits.
Again these are my guesses.
The price is going to fluctuate widely. All of the following is opinion and based on a cloudy crystal ball: I believe there will be a spike high sometime in the fall at around $6,000. It may go down a bit after that. However, $3000 will be a strong floor for the short term as there will be many buyers that got shut out at that price. As the price of gold moves it will help or hurt the set, with three ounces of bullion value. I believe that if gold reaches $1000 next year, the set is going to the moon ($10k+
link to old thread
Camelot
I love this hobby. I hope it hits $18k
I still need a pr70 dcam to complete my 70 set.
I have one last set to submit and hope. O please O please grade me a pr70 dcam to go with my other 2 70's.
<< <i>This latest all 70 set has reached over $14,000.00
I love this hobby. I hope it hits $18k
I still need a pr70 dcam to complete my 70 set.
I have one last set to submit and hope. O please O please grade me a pr70 dcam to go with my other 2 70's. >>
Ended at $15,889.00
LOL
Pr69dcam, rev proof 70 and ms 70
Sold for $8499.00 buy it now. I need this set to climp up in price.
Rob
3 AGE Set: Prices continue to decline week to week from an average set price of $4983 to $4767. The average ungraded set yesterday appears to have sold at $4,661. Another interesting note is that there has been some profit taking of sets that were purchased on ebay or yahoo in earlier auctions. Also, there appear to be a lot more sets going unsold.
PCGS Graded sets: Only 6 all-70 sets have sold so far on ebay, for an average price of $13,073 and rising. Last night's auction ended at $15,889. The full 69 set of which 4 have sold have an average price of $5,200.
Comare this with the NGC sets which are much, much more plentiful: All 70 of which 70 have sold: $7,566 average and declining...$6,950 and $6900 the last two selling. All 69 of which 34 have sold: $4,957 average and declining; last two prices $4,601 and 4,511.
Individually graded coins:
PCGS MS-69: 16 sold at an average price of $823--relatively stable
NGC MS-69: 31 sold a " $700-
PCGS MS-70 15 sold $1874 average price and declinging
NGC MS-70 48 sold $1227 and declining
PCGS Rev Proof 69 : None traded
NGC " : 8 sold $2,256
PCGS Rev Proof 70: 12 Sold - avg $5,828.
NGC : 12 Sold - avg $5,088
HAPPY COLLECTING!
Bid is $4000 for an AEGtempting
<< <i>Would you buy from this guy?
Bid is $4000 for an AEGtempting >>
zero feedback = no way
<< <i>Recent eBay pricing:
3 AGE Set: Prices continue to decline week to week from an average set price of $4983 to $4767. The average ungraded set yesterday appears to have sold at $4,661. Another interesting note is that there has been some profit taking of sets that were purchased on ebay or yahoo in earlier auctions. Also, there appear to be a lot more sets going unsold.
PCGS Graded sets: Only 6 all-70 sets have sold so far on ebay, for an average price of $13,073 and rising. Last night's auction ended at $15,889. The full 69 set of which 4 have sold have an average price of $5,200.
Comare this with the NGC sets which are much, much more plentiful: All 70 of which 70 have sold: $7,566 average and declining...$6,950 and $6900 the last two selling. All 69 of which 34 have sold: $4,957 average and declining; last two prices $4,601 and 4,511.
Individually graded coins:
PCGS MS-69: 16 sold at an average price of $823--relatively stable
NGC MS-69: 31 sold a " $700-
PCGS MS-70 15 sold $1874 average price and declinging
NGC MS-70 48 sold $1227 and declining
PCGS Rev Proof 69 : None traded
NGC " : 8 sold $2,256
PCGS Rev Proof 70: 12 Sold - avg $5,828.
NGC : 12 Sold - avg $5,088
HAPPY COLLECTING! >>
Nice work 53BKid, thanks for the information.
I second that!!!
He bought several sets around $3500 and is now reaping the rewards of his buys.
Salute to Thom625
that may not have made the grade. They are broken out
of holders and put back into the coin capsules and sold as
virgin sets. I believe that in the sale of ASE Sets, this is what
is happening, on a number of them, from disreputable sellers.
Camelot
<< <i>What I am afraid of, is that we are starting to see sets
that may not have made the grade. They are broken out
of holders and put back into the coin capsules and sold as
virgin sets. I believe that in the sale of ASE Sets, this is what
is happening, on a number of them, from disreputable sellers. >>
So I guess, given your statement, is that raw sets in the future should sell at an even greater discount to graded sets than is currently happening? Interesting and disappointing if does work out like that.
Camelot
<< <i>What I am afraid of, is that we are starting to see sets
that may not have made the grade. They are broken out
of holders and put back into the coin capsules and sold as
virgin sets. I believe that in the sale of ASE Sets, this is what
is happening, on a number of them, from disreputable sellers. >>
It is a shame that the mint packaging isn't more secure, but that is a minor thing considering the big picture.
Those that want graded coins will buy them. Those that want the sets in mint packaging will buy those. Those that want to submit have mostly run their course. There are only a few stragglers still looking to submit gold sets and they have now missed the first strike window. I don't see what is the big deal if a coin is 69 and back into mint packaging? Most all the gold coins are 69s. Those collectors looking for a 70 should pony up and buy one in a holder. There are a ton of reverse proof 70s available, and the other two coins may or may not be from an A12 set (3-coin-gold) at all.
It will be interesting to see if $4500 holds. If I had to bet, I would say no, that $4000 or even a bit lower, $3800 will be touched before Christmas. There will be many graded sets coming back to submitters, and I believe that the gold sets grading out at 69, especially the NGC 69s will not stay above $4500. The wildcard as usually is how gold trades. A big rally or a big dump will influence the price of these sets.
<< <i>Thom625 has got to get the Mr. AEG eBay Buyer/Seller award.
He bought several sets around $3500 and is now reaping the rewards of his buys.
Salute to Thom625
The big seller was Moderncoinmart .over 200,000 in sales all with BIN or best offer sales..the 1st out of the gate with NGCs 69, 70
<< <i>
<< <i>What I am afraid of, is that we are starting to see sets
that may not have made the grade. They are broken out
of holders and put back into the coin capsules and sold as
virgin sets. I believe that in the sale of ASE Sets, this is what
is happening, on a number of them, from disreputable sellers. >>
So I guess, given your statement, is that raw sets in the future should sell at an even greater discount to graded sets than is currently happening? Interesting and disappointing if does work out like that. >>
\
Ran across raw set that had awesome snow white cameo on the prf.......even beat out my NGC 70s PRF
Camelot
Bump
If the mint is in deed making another distribution next week, additional supply should push down the prices of ungraded sets further as these are delivered and more sets get listed. The question after that is whether or not the next round of deliveries will be the last or not.
<< <i>Prices on the undgraded sets clearly are off their peak 19%, with average daily prices on eBay now having declined over $1000 since their peak on 10/5. Currently there are some 36 ungraded sets avaialble on eBay, though most of them probably will not sell at their asking current prices.
If the mint is in deed making another distribution next week, additional supply should push down the prices of ungraded sets further as these are delivered and more sets get listed. The question after that is whether or not the next round of deliveries will be the last or not. >>
Isn't this 11-6 mailing ... just from any returned sets to the Mint ?
The Ebay major AGE set dealers that I have tracked over the past 3 weeks , have limited or no supply for their upcoming listings.. except for one . This may be the 1st step where availabilty of AGE sets begins to tighten.
The big concern for the raw sets is quality . Have the sets been mishandled as they are bought and sold ????
150051848798
150051850129
Edit: Oh, and lookie here. ICG has their own marketing gimmick for these, too.
<< <i>
The Ebay major AGE set dealers that I have tracked over the past 3 weeks , have limited or no supply for their upcoming listings.. except for one . This may be the 1st step where availabilty of AGE sets begins to tighten.
The big concern for the raw sets is quality . Have the sets been mishandled as they are bought and sold ???? >>
Quality? On the gold sets? I have not seen any reports of any 68 grades on the gold, only the silver. I think this is overblown, 98% of the gold coins are 69 or better. The sets have not traded that much, how much mishandling can happen in a hardwood case for encapsulated coins in one month?
Like I said in my previous post, I expect the supply to increase in the next week or two as many of the First Strike deadline submissions come back to the submitters and on to the market. These are not from the pro submitters, more from the amateurs who got in under the wire. For buyers looking for a low price this may be a good time to be looking, though it will probably not be the low low. The early December window may also be a good time for buyers as some cash strapped owners may look to sell to finance Christmas spending, that may be the short term low.
I believe that next year will be a better one for the AGE bulls. My crystal ball sometimes works, sometimes doesn't, but so far my predictions have been as good as anybody's. I expect continued weakness, with little new buying until January. Only bargain hunters are buying in here, and lower prices makes them want to continue to wait. The lower prices will drive some speculators to fold their hands, selling any remaining sets for whatever bid they can get, because their money is hot money and they can not or will not hold through the winter. The exception is for PCGS graded all-70 First Strike sets. Probably less than 200 all PCGS 70 First Strike sets will be assembled.
/edit minor typo
<< <i>Isn't this 11-6 mailing ... just from any returned sets to the Mint ? >>
Gosh, I hope not. I wouldn't anticipate that the mint will receive many returns, unless severely damaged.
If I go on what I've been told by mint supervisors, (though I've all but given up on believing anything any of them tell me) the previous round of distribution was disappointing; they thought more would be delivered for distribution then.
Another round of deliveries is expected to be shipped from West Point, NY to the fulfillment center early next week. While they make no guarantees, one person who described himself as the senior manager overseeing the supervisors said that many of the people who had their order placed on 8/31 before the mint changed the language on their website (10 am) are apt to receive sets in the coming week or so--though he made clear that he would not committ to that as changes have occured in the past and people have been sorely disappointed.
<< <i>Gosh, I hope not. I wouldn't anticipate that the mint will receive many returns, unless severely damaged. >>
The Mint's own policy indicates you can return a damaged set for exchange or refund. Don't you think they would hold back some sets just incase someone wanted to exchange a damaged set? If none come back, then they would have these sets for distribution.