<< <i>Years ago Warren Buffet said the dollar would fall because of the huge trade deficit and we still have that huge deficit. The G7 will give a bounce but the fundamental problem (trade deficit) remains so long term the dollar keeps going down. Are foreigners going to buy US dolllars to buy treasuries with negative real yields or more of the the very dubious "AAA" rated junk?
I've looked at the Elliot Wave stuff but the kind of deflation they've predicted hasn't happened. Food prices are going up so fast that there are increasing riots acrosss the globe. >>
Your absolutely right. Could be that the end of an empire is near.
That makes me worry. You can wait for interest rates to fall, and buy 2 year bonds.
If history is correct I made a short list of things that can happen.
1. The dollar recovers. Possible 2. world war 3 very possible 3. Impeach Bush, clean house. Not probable 4. Great depression. possible
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
<< <i>we are close to a bottom, but not yet, the euro is topped may go a little higher. >>
What do you base this on? We are nowhere near a bottom yet, IMO.
<< <i>Interest rates will go lower before we have inflation. >>
Look around, we've been living with inflation for some time now and it's gotten progressively worse in the last couple years.
How much lower can interest rates go? Besides, it doesn't effect the average consumer anyway. Home loans, fixed rate-30 year type, aren't any cheaper to speak of over the last few years. Only the banks are profiting from the Fed lowering interest rates.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>sorry if i double posted? My browser will not go past page 310. >>
Probably just as well.
If you really think we live under a Dictatorship, you really can't add much to the discussion anyway.
Your knowledge of politics, particularly regarding the Middle East is sorely lacking.
There will be an American military presence in Iraq for the rest of your life. It's a good thing, for us and the Middle East.
Get used to it.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>we are close to a bottom, but not yet, the euro is topped may go a little higher. >>
What do you base this on? We are nowhere near a bottom yet, IMO.
I know a few experts who trade currency, They have very good insight.
<< <i>Interest rates will go lower before we have inflation. >>
Look around, we've been living with inflation for some time now and it's gotten progressively worse in the last couple years.
How much lower can interest rates go? Besides, it doesn't effect the average consumer anyway. Home loans, fixed rate-30 year type, aren't any cheaper to speak of over the last few years. Only the banks are profiting from the Fed lowering interest rates. >>
The word is .25 to .50 base points before we stabilize.
Very True, But with low rates it should be easy to call your credit card company's, and ask for lower rates. My friend did this with all his cards, he said just ask. You say you want the lowest rates they can give you, or if they can match or beat another offer.
There is no true fix, the constitution said we should stay on the gold standard only, but we didn't listen.
By looking at a dollar chart over 22 years we should expect to test the low before going higher. IMHO I don't even want to think what could happen if we enter into a depression.
But I do believe we are, definition of Police state. The term police state is a term for a state in which the government exercises rigid and repressive controls over the social, economic and political life of the population, especially by means of a secret police force which operates outside the boundaries normally imposed by a constitutional republic. A police state typically exhibits elements of totalitarianism and social control, and there is usually little or no distinction between the law and the exercise of political power by the executive.
Definition of dic·ta·tor n. 1. a. An absolute ruler. THE UN, and America... b. A tyrant; a despot. GWB 2. An ancient Roman magistrate appointed temporarily to deal with an immediate crisis or emergency. The queen of England 3. One who dictates: These initials are those of the dictator of the letter. The presidents power to overrule the senate or fill it with his loyal followers.
I probably wont be posting again, the Hostility toward your fellow Americans is a growing problem.
What would happen if the people of the United states actually could choose there candidates? Answer we would have democracy. reading is good, being told what to believe is bad. Knowing the difference is truth.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
The US has never had a true democracy. The founding fathers created a Republic because they didn't feel a democracy with the people voting directly for candidates would work. Hence the people elected representatives to do their bidding.
The constitution required a silver monetary standard...not gold.
The US dollar won't be testing its recent lows but rather seeking a new all-time low over the next few years. I would guess approx 30-40% lower than it currently is.
No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
From my recollection the constitution listed a legal weight in grains and fineness for silver to make up one dollar....and did not mention gold. That would seem to suggest a silver standard.
There ain't enough silver left to go on the silver standard. Just try buying any quantity of bars or American eagles or just about anything silver. Seems as if the local coin shops are all out of the stuff. I suspect we are getting closer to a silver panic. When that happens it will make the 1979-1980 period look like nothing!
Some good info to read, you can also do a search, or ( look at section 10 of the constitution ) draw your own conclusion. The fact that Gold is mentioned first, and not silver is because, Gold has always been the standard of choice. I hope you guys can eventually agree that all is not simply what it appears to be, or whether you believe in god. There is a truth to insight. Opinion is used to recognize facts, understanding the outcome is not always so clear. With time we eventually grow, and evolving, putting our differences aside for the good of humanity. Each piece of information adds to the history, and the evolution of man. Take with grain of salt.
Fiat Money History in the US
OVERVIEW In a fiat money system, money is not backed by a physical commodity (i.e.: gold). Instead, the only thing that gives the money value is its relative scarcity and the faith placed in it by the people that use it. A good primer on the history of fiat money in the US can be found in a video provided by the Mises.org website.
In a fiat monetary system, there is no restrain on the amount of money that can be created. This allows unlimited credit creation. Initially, a rapid growth in the availability of credit is often mistaken for economic growth, as spending and business profits grow and frequently there is a rapid growth in equity prices. In the long run, however, the economy tends to suffer much more by the following contraction than it gained from the expansion in credit. This expansion in credit can be seen in the Debt/GDP ratio. We track the bubbles created by this expansion of debt at the inflation / deflation page.
In most cases, a fiat monetary system comes into existence as a result of excessive public debt. When the government is unable to repay all its debt in gold or silver, the temptation to remove physical backing rather than to default becomes irresistible. This was the case in 18th century France during the Law scheme, as well as in the 70s in the US, when Nixon removed the last link between the dollar and gold which is still in effect today.
Hyper-inflation is the terminal stage of any fiat currency. In hyper-inflation, money looses most of its value practically overnight. Hyper-inflation is often the result of increasing regular inflation to the point where all confidence in money is lost. In a fiat monetary system, the value of money is based on confidence, and once that confidence is gone, money irreversibly becomes worthless, regardless of its scarcity. Gold has replaced every fiat currency for the past 3000 years.
The United States has so far avoided hyper-inflation by shifting between a fiat and gold standard over the past 200 years.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
<< <i>we are close to a bottom, but not yet, the euro is topped may go a little higher. >>
What do you base this on? We are nowhere near a bottom yet, IMO.
I know a few experts who trade currency, They have very good insight.
<< <i>Interest rates will go lower before we have inflation. >>
Look around, we've been living with inflation for some time now and it's gotten progressively worse in the last couple years.
How much lower can interest rates go? Besides, it doesn't effect the average consumer anyway. Home loans, fixed rate-30 year type, aren't any cheaper to speak of over the last few years. Only the banks are profiting from the Fed lowering interest rates. >>
The word is .25 to .50 base points before we stabilize.
Very True, But with low rates it should be easy to call your credit card company's, and ask for lower rates. My friend did this with all his cards, he said just ask. You say you want the lowest rates they can give you, or if they can match or beat another offer.
There is no true fix, the constitution said we should stay on the gold standard only, but we didn't listen.
By looking at a dollar chart over 22 years we should expect to test the low before going higher. IMHO I don't even want to think what could happen if we enter into a depression.
But I do believe we are, definition of Police state. The term police state is a term for a state in which the government exercises rigid and repressive controls over the social, economic and political life of the population, especially by means of a secret police force which operates outside the boundaries normally imposed by a constitutional republic. A police state typically exhibits elements of totalitarianism and social control, and there is usually little or no distinction between the law and the exercise of political power by the executive.
Definition of dic·ta·tor n. 1. a. An absolute ruler. THE UN, and America... b. A tyrant; a despot. GWB 2. An ancient Roman magistrate appointed temporarily to deal with an immediate crisis or emergency. The queen of England 3. One who dictates: These initials are those of the dictator of the letter. The presidents power to overrule the senate or fill it with his loyal followers.
I probably wont be posting again, the Hostility toward your fellow Americans is a growing problem.
What would happen if the people of the United states actually could choose there candidates? Answer we would have democracy. reading is good, being told what to believe is bad. Knowing the difference is truth. >>
"reading is good, being told what to believe is bad, knowing the difference is truth" Sounds like an Obama platitude, nice words, no substance.
What?!? Knowing the difference is an obvious key. It depends on what you read. Truth has nothing to do with it in many cases, particularly in regards to Wikipedia.
There's no hostility involved. If you think calling your bluff and asking for further explanation is hostility, you ARE in the wrong place.
You seem to sound like a 7th grader telling your Grandfather how the world works. Just a simple observation. Nothing more, nothing less.
Wikipedia is no source for factual information, in fact it's considered more of a soapbox for those with a political or a personal ax to grind.
I think you'd be better served to read and listen more here and not make such outlandish statements.
Actually, the only hostility I see here is yours towards the President. We are having an election in just a few short months, it's been all over the news. At that time GWB steps down. That's not what a dictator does, please......
We aren't anywhere near close to a Police State, your own definition proves that.
You know a few experts who trade currency? What, are they your Dad's friends? What defines an expert?
I'm sure you can look it up and cut and paste that as well.
Gee, I have several millionaires as drinking buddies, guys I've known for up to 20 years in some cases. What's that worth? Absolutely nothing. Their financial ideas are all over the place and their notions about where we are headed are also scattered. Though we tend to agree in many regards, we all have our own ideas and are acting accordingly. One or more of them will be correct, you get enough opinions, one will generally turn out to be true. I was the only one who began to strongly invest in precious metals back in 2001 and I took some heat from the group for a while. Not anymore. In fact I've sold several hundred ounces of gold to them over the last few years and they are all very happy that they listened to me. They should have listened more when I talked up silver far more than gold.
It's easy to see where you have cut and pasted. Your own words are nothing like the various paragraphs that clearly aren't done from your own thinking process.
So, "the word" is that 25 to 50 basis points will cause stabilization in the dollar? Just where does this "word" come from?
Just what makes you believe that 25 to 50 basis points will make any difference? The cuts already made haven't helped anyone except financial institutions. What is it that will make this any different? Please explain this to us. I'm sure we'd like to know.
As of now, I don't believe that "word" for a second. In fact, I think it will continue to drop to record lows. Perhaps replacement is more likely than stabilization. Far too early to tell right now.
Call your credit card company? Right!!!! They don't have to give you any break, nor will they in virtually all cases. Having those credit cards are a large part of one's credit score. If you pay them off when the statement comes, unlike our Government, the rate doesn't really have any effect on you anyway. If you carry a large balance, you certainly aren't going to get any sort of break on the APR. Dropping a card if they won't lower your rate only hurts your own credit score, not a wise move. Do you understand how credit scores are derived?
None of us believe we live in a police state, none of us believe we have a dictator, regardless of what we think of GWB. Chaney is a non factor. Nearly all of us know we live in a democratically elected Republic. A democracy is 3 wolves and 2 sheep voting on dinner. If we had a true Democracy, slavery, while having been outlawed some time ago certainly would have lasted well past 1865. There were Northern States where slavery was legal halfway through the Civil War. General Sherman kept slaves throughout the entire war and brought them with him. Abortion would be illegal nationwide if we were a true Democracy. Women still wouldn't be able to vote in a true democracy. We would have never accepted an income tax under a Democracy. I could go on, but I trust you get the point.
That's why a true democracy may work in a classroom, but not in the real world. Nearly all of us are aware of the abuses of the Fed over the years and these began long before GWB was even born. Ranting about police states and dictators is simply childish and based on nothing but far left whacko blogs. And no, America is not an Empire either, not by any definition. We conquered Mexico and held Mexico City at one time, we simply responded to their attacks on us, we didn't start it and we are not by nature evil conquerers. We then gave it all back as far as the Rio Grande. That's not what an Empire does.
What we are here to discuss is where we are going economically and where that will take gold and silver.
Most of us are heavily invested in such.
I have yet to hear you speak much of that, much less back it up with any factual evidence.
A depression seems very unlikely, a fairly long recession seems most likely and is already upon us. WWIII isn't even close to likely. The US military is so far ahead of the rest of the world that no country would ever hope to survive should they take the military option against us. You can thank GWB in large part for that. Later on, you can thank McCain for keeping us in that secure position. Stating that as truth does not make me a supporter of either of them, I'm not.
There is no hostility towards our fellow Americans here, as such it could not be growing. Where did you come up with that pearl of wisdom?
All contributions are welcome in this thread, but it sure makes for better reading when they stick to the subject at hand.
Give it a try.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Didn't take me long to make the connection, I see now why you call yourself dead horse.
From wikipedia.
"Beating a dead horse" is an idiom that means a particular request or line of conversation is already foreclosed, mooted, or otherwise resolved, and any attempt to continue it is futile... Taken with a grain of salt.
Hammer time...
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
<< <i>This may have been done before but I think it would be interesting to see what people are invested in by percentage. >>
For me the percentages are:
40% investment real estate (rental property) 30% rare coins 15% stocks and bonds (mutual funds) 15% cash or bank CDs
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
<< <i>This may have been done before but I think it would be interesting to see what people are invested in by percentage. For me:
25% commodity currency (Canada, Australia, New Zealnd) account at Everbank 25 % physical silver bars 10% Kraft stock 10 % Exxon Mobil Stock 10 % rare coins 20 % in a savings account >>
Yikes!!!! >>
All of that except for the savings has done well so I'm not sure what the yikes is for. I also have invested nothing into real estate which was a pretty good move if I do say so myself. The desperation of home sellers is palpable this spring and only a few buyers (like me) have money for a downpayment, a good credit score, and don't have a house to sell. I love the smell of desperation in the morning.
<< <i>Didn't take me long to make the connection, I see now why you call yourself dead horse.
From wikipedia.
"Beating a dead horse" is an idiom that means a particular request or line of conversation is already foreclosed, mooted, or otherwise resolved, and any attempt to continue it is futile... Taken with a grain of salt.
The "yikes" may be because you have 20% of your investments in 2 individual stocks, 60% in metals and commodities, and nothing in mutual funds, which long term have outperformed everything else. Free advice, even though you're a Red Sox fan.
<< <i>Didn't take me long to make the connection, I see now why you call yourself dead horse.
From wikipedia.
"Beating a dead horse" is an idiom that means a particular request or line of conversation is already foreclosed, mooted, or otherwise resolved, and any attempt to continue it is futile... Taken with a grain of salt.
I also said "yikes" to my clients who said they were heavy into Tech stocks in 1999. They, like you, said it had worked well so far. >>
You're comparing stocks of ridiculous internet companies to currencies of stable governments that are rich in natural resources? If you don't see the difference, I don't know what else to say.
As some may have gathered, I generally follow Warren Buffet's philosiphies and he has a few large investments in stable companies and foreign currencies to hedge the dollar decline. I think the fundamentals of silver are good and though I didn't get in as early as Deadhorse, I have been buying on dips the last few years so the percentage has risen. IMHO the odds of Kraft and Exxon-Mobil going broke are about zero. People need to eat and they need to drive to work regardless of a recession. I keep up with economic news and opinions and I don't need to pay a mutual fund manger to tell me what I know.
I wouldnt consider MSFT, CSCO, or INTC ridiculous. All have greater sales (bigger businesses) today than they did in 2000, yet they are on average down 70% from their highs. Everyone was right about what the internet would be like in 2008, yet stocks suffered. I have no doubt that many will be right about the commodities businesses in 2016, just be prepared for the unexpected.
And I certainly wouldnt consider the USA to be "unstable". Personally, I dont like to be riding overcrowded boats.
I wouldnt consider MSFT, CSCO, or INTC ridiculous. All have greater sales (bigger businesses) today than they did in 2000, yet they are on average down 70% from their highs. Everyone was right about what the internet would be like in 2008, yet stocks suffered. I have no doubt that many will be right about the commodities businesses in 2016, just be prepared for the unexpected.
And I certainly wouldnt consider the USA to be "unstable". Personally, I dont like to be riding overcrowded boats. >>
When I say ridiculous, I mean companies like Pets.com that drove the frenzy, not Intel or Microsoft. Intel makes semiconductors so I don't even consider them an internet company. 99.9 % of internet companies are gone. Trying to pick the few that would survive was too difficult so I didn't bother trying. I don't recall saying the US govt was unstable. Pets.com was certainly unstable and went out of business. The boat will be overcrowded when silver is on the cover of time magazine but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Housing has taken center stage. Even the hardcore PM guys like Jim Sinclair say it will be a wild ride but I'm prepared. No guts, no return.
Speaking of Microsoft, here's Bill Gates prediction for the US dollar
Warren Buffett, Bill Gates betting billions against the greenback By James Hertling in Davos and Simon Clark in London February 1, 2005 Page Tools Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, the world's two richest men, are partners in business, bridge and travel. Now they've joined in a bet against the US dollar. Mr Gates, chairman of Microsoft, said he expected the US dollar to extend its three-year drop because of widening US trade and budget deficits. "I'm short the dollar," Mr Gates told television interviewer Charlie Rose this weekend at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down." Mr Buffett, whose personal fortune of more than $US42.9 billion ($55.4 billion) is topped only by Mr Gates's $US46.6 billion, has been buying foreign currencies since 2002, citing the impact of the US deficits. Their concerns were echoed in Davos by policy makers including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and investors such as George Soros. The US dollar has fallen 26 per cent against a basket of six major currencies since the start of 2002. The trade deficit swelled to a record $US609 billion last year and the Bush Administration expects the budget shortfall to reach a record $US427 billion in the year to September 30.
"It is a bit scary," Mr Gates said of the US's $US7620 billion in debt. "We're in uncharted territory when the world's reserve currency has so much outstanding debt." Mr Buffett, chairman of investment company Berkshire Hathaway, bought $US1 billion in foreign currency contracts in the third quarter, bringing his total to $US20 billion of forward contracts in eight currencies on September 30, according to Berkshire. The currency position gave Berkshire a $US412 million pretax gain in the quarter as the value of the US dollar fell. "That's a long-term position," Mr Buffett, 74, said in an August interview. "I have no idea what currencies are going to do next week or next month or even next year. I think I know over time." Mr Gates and Mr Buffett's shared view on the US dollar is not their only joint interest. Mr Gates revealed a $US319 million stake in Berkshire Hathaway on December 21, a week after he joined the company as a director. The two play bridge and have travelled together, taking a 1995 train trip through China. Mr Buffett made his first investment in China in 2003, buying a stake in PetroChina Co. In Davos, Mr Gates described China as a potential "change agent" for the next two decades. "It's phenomenal," Mr Gates said. "It's a brand new form of capitalism." The Microsoft founder's $US27 billion foundation in September received approval from China's foreign-currency regulator to invest up to $US100 million in the nation's yuan shares and bonds. The comments by Mr Gates about the US dollar came a week before Group of Seven officials meet to discuss currency policy and were echoed by officials from Europe and Asia. The euro rose as high as $US1.3666 on December 30 and bought $US1.3038 at the end of last week. A stronger euro reduces the competitiveness of European exports and slows growth among the nations sharing the currency. "The governing council of the ECB has repeated a very, very short sentence, namely that the sharp moves upward of the euro were unwelcome and that we thought they were counterproductive from the economic growth perspective," Mr Trichet said at a Davos panel discussion. US growth reached a five-year high of 4.4 per cent in 2004, outpacing Europe for the 12th time in 13 years. The euro region probably grew 2.1 per cent, according to European Commission estimates. The US budget shortfall was "the No.1 risk, disregarding geopolitical risks" to the global economy, German Deputy Finance Minister Caio Koch-Weser said in a January 27 interview in Davos. He urged US President George Bush to present a "credible" plan for getting the deficit under control. Chinese central bank adviser Yu Yongding said in Davos the US should do more to tackle its record current-account deficit and ease pressure on China to loosen its currency's peg to the US dollar. "The US should take the lead in putting its own house in order," Mr Yu said. "It's the root cause" of global imbalances. "China will make its contribution, but the world should not put disproportionate pressure" on the country.
I dont pretend to know if the dollar will rally or fall further. I prefer to trade "relativity". It is entirely possible that the dollar could remain flat, which could prove the worse fears of dollar fans and detractors. Many say that "time is on your side". I see it differently, as time to me is an enemy, for if I do not improve my position today, then it is one day less I have.
And I see fishcooker is a fan of ETFs and ETNs. Its the only way to go.
Something simple really. 100$. You win if the dollar is 10% higher or more in 2 years. I win if dollar 10% lower or more in two years. Bet will be paid in today's dollar values relative to the USDX....even though the EU is going to bail out the dollar a bit...I would rather index it towards today's oil price...
<< <i>Something simple really. 100$. You win if the dollar is 10% higher or more in 2 years. I win if dollar 10% lower or more in two years. Bet will be paid in today's dollar values relative to the USDX....even though the EU is going to bail out the dollar a bit...I would rather index it towards today's oil price...
Just for fun... >>
Can you guarantee we will both be alive in 2 years? Is this a closing in 2 years, or anytime in the next 2 years?
That article is 3 yrs old and they were correct. So were my clients who bought Technology in 1996.
And again, I agree with your last sentence. >>
I think you missed the part where Warren said it was a "long term investment." 3 years isn't long term to Mr. Buffet. 3 decades is. I haven't seen either guy change their mind.
Honestly I see no purpose. I would be bored with this bet. I would rather put $100 into a fantasy football league.
If I want to play that trade I could short FXY or FXE, or go long UUP. Or just trade the currencies. But since my time horizons are so short, I really dont have any skin in this game, so I can stay "mostly" unbiased.
FACT: the US Dollar is pretty cheap right now and that could change real fast ......things do not go down forever. ..........furthermore, the tyrants and their treasury people from around the world were usually edumafacated in the U.S. and ..........might soon be given a hard lesson in being taken to school----real soon. Things change fast, esp. when you least expect it.
Fact: ask Mr. Buffet how much he enjoyed his silver adventure. I doubt it was as much fun as his other speculative moves.
How about it hits 74.93 within the next 6 months? Thats about as far as my short attention span will go. Thats almost 1/2 the appreciation in 1/4 the time as your wager.
<< <i>FACT: the US Dollar is pretty cheap right now and that could change real fast ......things do not go down forever. ..........furthermore, the tyrants and their treasury people from around the world were usually edumafacated in the U.S. and ..........might soon be given a hard lesson in being taken to school----real soon. Things change fast, esp. when you least expect it.
Fact: ask Mr. Buffet how much he enjoyed his silver adventure. I doubt it was as much fun as his other speculative moves. >>
I think his 40 BILLION speaks LOUDLY. Money talks and you know the rest of the line.
<< <i>Dont like that bet as you might be right.... There is going to be attempts soon to prop up the dollar globally in the near term. >>
Probably some truth there. I tend to agree. Still, it won't help the average American consumer very much, if at all.
The problem with props is that they are only temporary and they only put off the inevitable.
In the long run, that's worse than letting things run their natural course.
Unfortunately, there is only a one in three chance that the next President will address this properly and even then, it's going to be a mess.
Joe six-pack isn't going to want to pay for the follies of others. He's doing it right now, of course, but it's more covert then overt.
No matter what, it's not going to be a rosy future in the near term and our poorly educated masses only see things in the very, very myopic short term.
When you talk of years, the average individual's eyes glass over.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Dont like that bet as you might be right.... There is going to be attempts soon to prop up the dollar globally in the near term. >>
Probably some truth there. I tend to agree. Still, it won't help the average American consumer very much, if at all.
The problem with props is that they are only temporary and they only put off the inevitable.
In the long run, that's worse than letting things run their natural course.
Unfortunately, there is only a one in three chance that the next President will address this properly and even then, it's going to be a mess.
Joe six-pack isn't going to want to pay for the follies of others. He's doing it right now, of course, but it's more covert then overt.
No matter what, it's not going to be a rosy future in the near term and our poorly educated masses only see things in the very, very myopic short term.
When you talk of years, the average individual's eyes glass over. >>
with what? how?..serious questions..!!!
in a short period of time i think we'll see inflation because of increased money supply via the FED's "transfusions" into a terminal patient.
G7 met and there was concerns about the value of the U$D but nothing of what to do about it or even smoke signals.....
inflation can only bring the value of a dollar down...yet who knows what will happen to its trade value on open markets
I'm shocked that smoe big talkers can't pony up a c-note for a 2 year bet. I'd assume the way they talked that they could sneeze and use a c-note to wipe their noses. I'd take the action but I'm on the same side as Coinlt.
There are LOTS of ways to prop up the dollar. The IMF propped up the Euro less than a decade or so ago. You dont think we have free markets do you?
There is interevention and there WILL be further intervention.
It wont matter though.
I am surprised more people havent jumped on either!! It isnt so much about the money as it is bragging rights. Perhaps people are scared to think how many dollars 100 of todays dollars will be two years from now.
<< <i>I'm shocked that smoe big talkers can't pony up a c-note for a 2 year bet. I'd assume the way they talked that they could sneeze and use a c-note to wipe their noses. I'd take the action but I'm on the same side as Coinlt. >>
Same here.
Several of us have been known to take on a bet for far more than $100. It wasn't that many years ago that we had a bet going for a LOT more money than this, however, PCGS frowns on such action on their board. I can appreciate their position on such things.
I suppose we could all make side bets on the original bet and we could create our own little derivatives market right here.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Comments
<< <i>Years ago Warren Buffet said the dollar would fall because of the huge trade deficit and we still have that huge deficit. The G7 will give a bounce but the fundamental problem (trade deficit) remains so long term the dollar keeps going down. Are foreigners going to buy US dolllars to buy treasuries with negative real yields or more of the the very dubious "AAA" rated junk?
I've looked at the Elliot Wave stuff but the kind of deflation they've predicted hasn't happened. Food prices are going up so fast that there are increasing riots acrosss the globe. >>
Your absolutely right. Could be that the end of an empire is near.
That makes me worry.
You can wait for interest rates to fall, and buy 2 year bonds.
If history is correct I made a short list of things that can happen.
1. The dollar recovers. Possible
2. world war 3 very possible
3. Impeach Bush, clean house. Not probable
4. Great depression. possible
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>we are close to a bottom, but not yet, the euro is topped may go a little higher. >>
What do you base this on? We are nowhere near a bottom yet, IMO.
<< <i>Interest rates will go lower before we have inflation. >>
Look around, we've been living with inflation for some time now and it's gotten progressively worse in the last couple years.
How much lower can interest rates go? Besides, it doesn't effect the average consumer anyway. Home loans, fixed rate-30 year type, aren't any cheaper to speak of over the last few years. Only the banks are profiting from the Fed lowering interest rates.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>sorry if i double posted? My browser will not go past page 310. >>
Probably just as well.
If you really think we live under a Dictatorship, you really can't add much to the discussion anyway.
Your knowledge of politics, particularly regarding the Middle East is sorely lacking.
There will be an American military presence in Iraq for the rest of your life. It's a good thing, for us and the Middle East.
Get used to it.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
<< <i>we are close to a bottom, but not yet, the euro is topped may go a little higher. >>
What do you base this on? We are nowhere near a bottom yet, IMO.
I know a few experts who trade currency, They have very good insight.
<< <i>Interest rates will go lower before we have inflation. >>
Look around, we've been living with inflation for some time now and it's gotten progressively worse in the last couple years.
How much lower can interest rates go? Besides, it doesn't effect the average consumer anyway. Home loans, fixed rate-30 year type, aren't any cheaper to speak of over the last few years. Only the banks are profiting from the Fed lowering interest rates. >>
The word is .25 to .50 base points before we stabilize.
Very True, But with low rates
it should be easy to call your credit card company's, and ask for lower rates. My friend did this with all his cards, he said just ask. You say you want the lowest rates they can give you, or if they can match or beat another offer.
There is no true fix, the constitution said we should stay on the gold standard only, but we didn't listen.
By looking at a dollar chart over 22 years we should expect to test the low before going higher. IMHO I don't even want to think what could happen if we enter into a depression.
But I do believe we are, definition of Police state.
The term police state is a term for a state in which the government exercises rigid and repressive controls over the social, economic and political life of the population, especially by means of a secret police force which operates outside the boundaries normally imposed by a constitutional republic. A police state typically exhibits elements of totalitarianism and social control, and there is usually little or no distinction between the law and the exercise of political power by the executive.
Definition of dic·ta·tor
n.
1.
a. An absolute ruler. THE UN, and America...
b. A tyrant; a despot. GWB
2. An ancient Roman magistrate appointed temporarily to deal with an immediate crisis or emergency. The queen of England
3. One who dictates: These initials are those of the dictator of the letter. The presidents power to overrule the senate or fill it with his loyal followers.
I probably wont be posting again, the Hostility toward your fellow Americans is a growing problem.
reading is good, being told what to believe is bad. Knowing the difference is truth.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
The US has never had a true democracy. The founding fathers created a Republic because they didn't feel a democracy with the people voting directly for candidates would work. Hence the people elected representatives to do their bidding.
The constitution required a silver monetary standard...not gold.
The US dollar won't be testing its recent lows but rather seeking a new all-time low over the next few years. I would guess approx 30-40% lower than it currently is.
roadrunner
Section 10 - Powers prohibited of States
No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
roadrunner
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
Fiat Money History in the US
OVERVIEW
In a fiat money system, money is not backed by a physical commodity (i.e.: gold). Instead, the only thing that gives the money value is its relative scarcity and the faith placed in it by the people that use it. A good primer on the history of fiat money in the US can be found in a video provided by the Mises.org website.
In a fiat monetary system, there is no restrain on the amount of money that can be created. This allows unlimited credit creation. Initially, a rapid growth in the availability of credit is often mistaken for economic growth, as spending and business profits grow and frequently there is a rapid growth in equity prices. In the long run, however, the economy tends to suffer much more by the following contraction than it gained from the expansion in credit. This expansion in credit can be seen in the Debt/GDP ratio. We track the bubbles created by this expansion of debt at the inflation / deflation page.
In most cases, a fiat monetary system comes into existence as a result of excessive public debt. When the government is unable to repay all its debt in gold or silver, the temptation to remove physical backing rather than to default becomes irresistible. This was the case in 18th century France during the Law scheme, as well as in the 70s in the US, when Nixon removed the last link between the dollar and gold which is still in effect today.
Hyper-inflation is the terminal stage of any fiat currency. In hyper-inflation, money looses most of its value practically overnight. Hyper-inflation is often the result of increasing regular inflation to the point where all confidence in money is lost. In a fiat monetary system, the value of money is based on confidence, and once that confidence is gone, money irreversibly becomes worthless, regardless of its scarcity. Gold has replaced every fiat currency for the past 3000 years.
The United States has so far avoided hyper-inflation by shifting between a fiat and gold standard over the past 200 years.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>we are close to a bottom, but not yet, the euro is topped may go a little higher. >>
What do you base this on? We are nowhere near a bottom yet, IMO.
I know a few experts who trade currency, They have very good insight.
<< <i>Interest rates will go lower before we have inflation. >>
Look around, we've been living with inflation for some time now and it's gotten progressively worse in the last couple years.
How much lower can interest rates go? Besides, it doesn't effect the average consumer anyway. Home loans, fixed rate-30 year type, aren't any cheaper to speak of over the last few years. Only the banks are profiting from the Fed lowering interest rates. >>
The word is .25 to .50 base points before we stabilize.
Very True, But with low rates
it should be easy to call your credit card company's, and ask for lower rates. My friend did this with all his cards, he said just ask. You say you want the lowest rates they can give you, or if they can match or beat another offer.
There is no true fix, the constitution said we should stay on the gold standard only, but we didn't listen.
By looking at a dollar chart over 22 years we should expect to test the low before going higher. IMHO I don't even want to think what could happen if we enter into a depression.
But I do believe we are, definition of Police state.
The term police state is a term for a state in which the government exercises rigid and repressive controls over the social, economic and political life of the population, especially by means of a secret police force which operates outside the boundaries normally imposed by a constitutional republic. A police state typically exhibits elements of totalitarianism and social control, and there is usually little or no distinction between the law and the exercise of political power by the executive.
Definition of dic·ta·tor
n.
1.
a. An absolute ruler. THE UN, and America...
b. A tyrant; a despot. GWB
2. An ancient Roman magistrate appointed temporarily to deal with an immediate crisis or emergency. The queen of England
3. One who dictates: These initials are those of the dictator of the letter. The presidents power to overrule the senate or fill it with his loyal followers.
I probably wont be posting again, the Hostility toward your fellow Americans is a growing problem.
reading is good, being told what to believe is bad. Knowing the difference is truth. >>
"reading is good, being told what to believe is bad, knowing the difference is truth" Sounds like an Obama platitude, nice words, no substance.
What?!? Knowing the difference is an obvious key. It depends on what you read. Truth has nothing to do with it in many cases, particularly in regards to Wikipedia.
There's no hostility involved. If you think calling your bluff and asking for further explanation is hostility, you ARE in the wrong place.
You seem to sound like a 7th grader telling your Grandfather how the world works. Just a simple observation. Nothing more, nothing less.
Wikipedia is no source for factual information, in fact it's considered more of a soapbox for those with a political or a personal ax to grind.
I think you'd be better served to read and listen more here and not make such outlandish statements.
Actually, the only hostility I see here is yours towards the President. We are having an election in just a few short months, it's been all over the news. At that time GWB steps down. That's not what a dictator does, please......
We aren't anywhere near close to a Police State, your own definition proves that.
You know a few experts who trade currency? What, are they your Dad's friends? What defines an expert?
I'm sure you can look it up and cut and paste that as well.
Gee, I have several millionaires as drinking buddies, guys I've known for up to 20 years in some cases. What's that worth? Absolutely nothing. Their financial ideas are all over the place and their notions about where we are headed are also scattered. Though we tend to agree in many regards, we all have our own ideas and are acting accordingly. One or more of them will be correct, you get enough opinions, one will generally turn out to be true. I was the only one who began to strongly invest in precious metals back in 2001 and I took some heat from the group for a while. Not anymore. In fact I've sold several hundred ounces of gold to them over the last few years and they are all very happy that they listened to me. They should have listened more when I talked up silver far more than gold.
It's easy to see where you have cut and pasted. Your own words are nothing like the various paragraphs that clearly aren't done from your own thinking process.
So, "the word" is that 25 to 50 basis points will cause stabilization in the dollar? Just where does this "word" come from?
Just what makes you believe that 25 to 50 basis points will make any difference? The cuts already made haven't helped anyone except financial institutions. What is it that will make this any different? Please explain this to us. I'm sure we'd like to know.
As of now, I don't believe that "word" for a second. In fact, I think it will continue to drop to record lows. Perhaps replacement is more likely than stabilization. Far too early to tell right now.
Call your credit card company? Right!!!! They don't have to give you any break, nor will they in virtually all cases. Having those credit cards are a large part of one's credit score. If you pay them off when the statement comes, unlike our Government, the rate doesn't really have any effect on you anyway. If you carry a large balance, you certainly aren't going to get any sort of break on the APR. Dropping a card if they won't lower your rate only hurts your own credit score, not a wise move. Do you understand how credit scores are derived?
None of us believe we live in a police state, none of us believe we have a dictator, regardless of what we think of GWB. Chaney is a non factor. Nearly all of us know we live in a democratically elected Republic. A democracy is 3 wolves and 2 sheep voting on dinner. If we had a true Democracy, slavery, while having been outlawed some time ago certainly would have lasted well past 1865. There were Northern States where slavery was legal halfway through the Civil War. General Sherman kept slaves throughout the entire war and brought them with him. Abortion would be illegal nationwide if we were a true Democracy. Women still wouldn't be able to vote in a true democracy. We would have never accepted an income tax under a Democracy. I could go on, but I trust you get the point.
That's why a true democracy may work in a classroom, but not in the real world. Nearly all of us are aware of the abuses of the Fed over the years and these began long before GWB was even born. Ranting about police states and dictators is simply childish and based on nothing but far left whacko blogs. And no, America is not an Empire either, not by any definition. We conquered Mexico and held Mexico City at one time, we simply responded to their attacks on us, we didn't start it and we are not by nature evil conquerers. We then gave it all back as far as the Rio Grande. That's not what an Empire does.
What we are here to discuss is where we are going economically and where that will take gold and silver.
Most of us are heavily invested in such.
I have yet to hear you speak much of that, much less back it up with any factual evidence.
A depression seems very unlikely, a fairly long recession seems most likely and is already upon us. WWIII isn't even close to likely. The US military is so far ahead of the rest of the world that no country would ever hope to survive should they take the military option against us. You can thank GWB in large part for that. Later on, you can thank McCain for keeping us in that secure position. Stating that as truth does not make me a supporter of either of them, I'm not.
There is no hostility towards our fellow Americans here, as such it could not be growing. Where did you come up with that pearl of wisdom?
All contributions are welcome in this thread, but it sure makes for better reading when they stick to the subject at hand.
Give it a try.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
From wikipedia.
"Beating a dead horse" is an idiom that means a particular request or line of conversation is already foreclosed, mooted, or otherwise resolved, and any attempt to continue it is futile... Taken with a grain of salt.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
I knew it would happen.
For me:
25% commodity currency (Canada, Australia, New Zealnd) account at Everbank
25 % physical silver bars
10% Kraft stock
10 % Exxon Mobil Stock
10 % rare coins
20 % in a savings account
<< <i>This may have been done before but I think it would be interesting to see what people are invested in by percentage.
For me:
25% commodity currency (Canada, Australia, New Zealnd) account at Everbank
25 % physical silver bars
10% Kraft stock
10 % Exxon Mobil Stock
10 % rare coins
20 % in a savings account >>
Yikes!!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>This may have been done before but I think it would be interesting to see what people are invested in by percentage. >>
For me the percentages are:
40% investment real estate (rental property)
30% rare coins
15% stocks and bonds (mutual funds)
15% cash or bank CDs
<< <i>
<< <i>This may have been done before but I think it would be interesting to see what people are invested in by percentage.
For me:
25% commodity currency (Canada, Australia, New Zealnd) account at Everbank
25 % physical silver bars
10% Kraft stock
10 % Exxon Mobil Stock
10 % rare coins
20 % in a savings account >>
Yikes!!!! >>
All of that except for the savings has done well so I'm not sure what the yikes is for. I also have invested nothing into real estate which was a pretty good move if I do say so myself.
<< <i>Didn't take me long to make the connection, I see now why you call yourself dead horse.
From wikipedia.
"Beating a dead horse" is an idiom that means a particular request or line of conversation is already foreclosed, mooted, or otherwise resolved, and any attempt to continue it is futile... Taken with a grain of salt.
dude... You were pwned.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
<< <i>Didn't take me long to make the connection, I see now why you call yourself dead horse.
From wikipedia.
"Beating a dead horse" is an idiom that means a particular request or line of conversation is already foreclosed, mooted, or otherwise resolved, and any attempt to continue it is futile... Taken with a grain of salt.
Dude... You were pwned.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
I also said "yikes" to my clients who said they were heavy into Tech stocks in 1999. They, like you, said it had worked well so far.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I agree with your last sentence.
I also said "yikes" to my clients who said they were heavy into Tech stocks in 1999. They, like you, said it had worked well so far. >>
You're comparing stocks of ridiculous internet companies to currencies of stable governments that are rich in natural resources? If you don't see the difference, I don't know what else to say.
As some may have gathered, I generally follow Warren Buffet's philosiphies and he has a few large investments in stable companies and foreign currencies to hedge the dollar decline. I think the fundamentals of silver are good and though I didn't get in as early as Deadhorse, I have been buying on dips the last few years so the percentage has risen. IMHO the odds of Kraft and Exxon-Mobil going broke are about zero. People need to eat and they need to drive to work regardless of a recession. I keep up with economic news and opinions and I don't need to pay a mutual fund manger to tell me what I know.
I can only lead a horse to water.
I wouldnt consider MSFT, CSCO, or INTC ridiculous. All have greater sales (bigger businesses) today than they did in 2000, yet they are on average down 70% from their highs. Everyone was right about what the internet would be like in 2008, yet stocks suffered. I have no doubt that many will be right about the commodities businesses in 2016, just be prepared for the unexpected.
And I certainly wouldnt consider the USA to be "unstable". Personally, I dont like to be riding overcrowded boats.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Joe,
I can only lead a horse to water.
I wouldnt consider MSFT, CSCO, or INTC ridiculous. All have greater sales (bigger businesses) today than they did in 2000, yet they are on average down 70% from their highs. Everyone was right about what the internet would be like in 2008, yet stocks suffered. I have no doubt that many will be right about the commodities businesses in 2016, just be prepared for the unexpected.
And I certainly wouldnt consider the USA to be "unstable". Personally, I dont like to be riding overcrowded boats. >>
When I say ridiculous, I mean companies like Pets.com that drove the frenzy, not Intel or Microsoft. Intel makes semiconductors so I don't even consider them an internet company. 99.9 % of internet companies are gone. Trying to pick the few that would survive was too difficult so I didn't bother trying. I don't recall saying the US govt was unstable. Pets.com was certainly unstable and went out of business. The boat will be overcrowded when silver is on the cover of time magazine but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Housing has taken center stage. Even the hardcore PM guys like Jim Sinclair say it will be a wild ride but I'm prepared. No guts, no return.
Warren Buffett, Bill Gates betting billions against the greenback
By James Hertling in Davos and Simon Clark in London
February 1, 2005
Page Tools
Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, the world's two richest men, are partners in business, bridge and travel. Now they've joined in a bet against the US dollar.
Mr Gates, chairman of Microsoft, said he expected the US dollar to extend its three-year drop because of widening US trade and budget deficits.
"I'm short the dollar," Mr Gates told television interviewer Charlie Rose this weekend at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down."
Mr Buffett, whose personal fortune of more than $US42.9 billion ($55.4 billion) is topped only by Mr Gates's $US46.6 billion, has been buying foreign currencies since 2002, citing the impact of the US deficits. Their concerns were echoed in Davos by policy makers including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and investors such as George Soros.
The US dollar has fallen 26 per cent against a basket of six major currencies since the start of 2002. The trade deficit swelled to a record $US609 billion last year and the Bush Administration expects the budget shortfall to reach a record $US427 billion in the year to September 30.
"It is a bit scary," Mr Gates said of the US's $US7620 billion in debt. "We're in uncharted territory when the world's reserve currency has so much outstanding debt."
Mr Buffett, chairman of investment company Berkshire Hathaway, bought $US1 billion in foreign currency contracts in the third quarter, bringing his total to $US20 billion of forward contracts in eight currencies on September 30, according to Berkshire. The currency position gave Berkshire a $US412 million pretax gain in the quarter as the value of the US dollar fell.
"That's a long-term position," Mr Buffett, 74, said in an August interview. "I have no idea what currencies are going to do next week or next month or even next year. I think I know over time."
Mr Gates and Mr Buffett's shared view on the US dollar is not their only joint interest.
Mr Gates revealed a $US319 million stake in Berkshire Hathaway on December 21, a week after he joined the company as a director. The two play bridge and have travelled together, taking a 1995 train trip through China.
Mr Buffett made his first investment in China in 2003, buying a stake in PetroChina Co.
In Davos, Mr Gates described China as a potential "change agent" for the next two decades. "It's phenomenal," Mr Gates said. "It's a brand new form of capitalism."
The Microsoft founder's $US27 billion foundation in September received approval from China's foreign-currency regulator to invest up to $US100 million in the nation's yuan shares and bonds.
The comments by Mr Gates about the US dollar came a week before Group of Seven officials meet to discuss currency policy and were echoed by officials from Europe and Asia.
The euro rose as high as $US1.3666 on December 30 and bought $US1.3038 at the end of last week. A stronger euro reduces the competitiveness of European exports and slows growth among the nations sharing the currency.
"The governing council of the ECB has repeated a very, very short sentence, namely that the sharp moves upward of the euro were unwelcome and that we thought they were counterproductive from the economic growth perspective," Mr Trichet said at a Davos panel discussion.
US growth reached a five-year high of 4.4 per cent in 2004, outpacing Europe for the 12th time in 13 years.
The euro region probably grew 2.1 per cent, according to European Commission estimates.
The US budget shortfall was "the No.1 risk, disregarding geopolitical risks" to the global economy, German Deputy Finance Minister Caio Koch-Weser said in a January 27 interview in Davos.
He urged US President George Bush to present a "credible" plan for getting the deficit under control.
Chinese central bank adviser Yu Yongding said in Davos the US should do more to tackle its record current-account deficit and ease pressure on China to loosen its currency's peg to the US dollar.
"The US should take the lead in putting its own house in order," Mr Yu said. "It's the root cause" of global imbalances. "China will make its contribution, but the world should not put disproportionate pressure" on the country.
That article is 3 yrs old and they were correct. So were my clients who bought Technology in 1996.
And again, I agree with your last sentence.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Care to make a wager on the dollar?
I have one in mind and am a willing participant.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Talk is cheap. Why not just buy your sure-thing investment at 2x or more and be done with it.
<< <i>Talk is cheap. Why not just buy your sure-thing investment at 2x or more and be done with it >>
What are you talking about?
siliconvalleycoins.com
And I see fishcooker is a fan of ETFs and ETNs. Its the only way to go.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
siliconvalleycoins.com
Just for fun...
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>Something simple really. 100$. You win if the dollar is 10% higher or more in 2 years. I win if dollar 10% lower or more in two years. Bet will be paid in today's dollar values relative to the USDX....even though the EU is going to bail out the dollar a bit...I would rather index it towards today's oil price...
Just for fun... >>
Can you guarantee we will both be alive in 2 years?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Joe,
That article is 3 yrs old and they were correct. So were my clients who bought Technology in 1996.
And again, I agree with your last sentence.
I think you missed the part where Warren said it was a "long term investment." 3 years isn't long term to Mr. Buffet. 3 decades is. I haven't seen either guy change their mind.
<< <i>
For $100 you're damn right I am!!!!!
Honestly I see no purpose. I would be bored with this bet. I would rather put $100 into a fantasy football league.
If I want to play that trade I could short FXY or FXE, or go long UUP. Or just trade the currencies. But since my time horizons are so short, I really dont have any skin in this game, so I can stay "mostly" unbiased.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
siliconvalleycoins.com
..........furthermore, the tyrants and their treasury people from around the world were usually edumafacated in the U.S. and
..........might soon be given a hard lesson in being taken to school----real soon. Things change fast, esp. when you least expect it.
Fact: ask Mr. Buffet how much he enjoyed his silver adventure. I doubt it was as much fun as his other speculative moves.
<< <i>Two years from today. >>
How about it hits 74.93 within the next 6 months? Thats about as far as my short attention span will go. Thats almost 1/2 the appreciation in 1/4 the time as your wager.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>FACT: the US Dollar is pretty cheap right now and that could change real fast ......things do not go down forever.
..........furthermore, the tyrants and their treasury people from around the world were usually edumafacated in the U.S. and
..........might soon be given a hard lesson in being taken to school----real soon. Things change fast, esp. when you least expect it.
Fact: ask Mr. Buffet how much he enjoyed his silver adventure. I doubt it was as much fun as his other speculative moves. >>
I think his 40 BILLION speaks LOUDLY. Money talks and you know the rest of the line.
<< <i>Dont like that bet as you might be right....
Probably some truth there. I tend to agree. Still, it won't help the average American consumer very much, if at all.
The problem with props is that they are only temporary and they only put off the inevitable.
In the long run, that's worse than letting things run their natural course.
Unfortunately, there is only a one in three chance that the next President will address this properly and even then, it's going to be a mess.
Joe six-pack isn't going to want to pay for the follies of others. He's doing it right now, of course, but it's more covert then overt.
No matter what, it's not going to be a rosy future in the near term and our poorly educated masses only see things in the very, very myopic short term.
When you talk of years, the average individual's eyes glass over.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
<< <i>Dont like that bet as you might be right....
Probably some truth there. I tend to agree. Still, it won't help the average American consumer very much, if at all.
The problem with props is that they are only temporary and they only put off the inevitable.
In the long run, that's worse than letting things run their natural course.
Unfortunately, there is only a one in three chance that the next President will address this properly and even then, it's going to be a mess.
Joe six-pack isn't going to want to pay for the follies of others. He's doing it right now, of course, but it's more covert then overt.
No matter what, it's not going to be a rosy future in the near term and our poorly educated masses only see things in the very, very myopic short term.
When you talk of years, the average individual's eyes glass over. >>
with what? how?..serious questions..!!!
in a short period of time i think we'll see
inflation because of increased money supply via the FED's "transfusions" into a terminal patient.
G7 met and there was concerns about the value of the U$D but nothing of what to do about it or even smoke signals.....
inflation can only bring the value of a dollar down...yet who knows what will happen to its trade value on open markets
Big talkers
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
There are LOTS of ways to prop up the dollar. The IMF propped up the Euro less than a decade or so ago. You dont think we have free markets do you?
There is interevention and there WILL be further intervention.
It wont matter though.
I am surprised more people havent jumped on either!! It isnt so much about the money as it is bragging rights. Perhaps people are scared to think how many dollars 100 of todays dollars will be two years from now.
J
siliconvalleycoins.com
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>I'm shocked that smoe big talkers can't pony up a c-note for a 2 year bet. I'd assume the way they talked that they could sneeze and use a c-note to wipe their noses. I'd take the action but I'm on the same side as Coinlt. >>
Same here.
Several of us have been known to take on a bet for far more than $100. It wasn't that many years ago that we had a bet going for a LOT more money than this, however, PCGS frowns on such action on their board. I can appreciate their position on such things.
I suppose we could all make side bets on the original bet and we could create our own little derivatives market right here.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff