Very interesting Opinion Editorial in the Sunday paper here. This PhD from American U. in Wash. (I think). His name is Andrew Yarrow and he put this piece together. His basic thesis is that "It is profoundly unpatriotic to retire at age 65 or before." He wants the boomers to work to at least 70 years old and preferrably beyond that. Then he goes on to talk about how retirees that retire at 62 or 65 are draining the SS fund and robbing younger workers of their benefits. Geezzzzz, I was stunned that there were actually people that thought this way and this is the second time recently that I have heard this attitude, that the retirees were robbing the future generations of their benefits by taking retirement. So there you go, amazing what happens when liberals run unchecked by reality.
My basic concern is that since I am in the first generation that has worked their whole lives under the social security donation system, and since the fund seems to be mostly empty...I would like to know who took my money. And, I don't mean Congress took my money, I want to know what aliens, what arthritus sufferers, what distant relatives of someone that worked, what unemployed legal immigrants that have children, what people that haven't worked a day in their lives and don't intend to start now, took my money. Say something like an average of about $150/month for thirty years at 8% interest; where is my money? I wish someone in a position of authority would ask that question to congress. "Where is our money?" followed by, "Who did you give it to?" and "We want it back, now!"
Oh yes, Mr., oh...PhD. Yarrow; I'm going to retire at 65, maybe at 62 and I will suck every nickel I can from the fund. All you slackers and dreamers can go suck eggs, and the stinkin' check better come every damn month. And, I don't appreciate some academic telling me to wait till I'm 70 to get my money. And while you're at it PhD in the ivy halls, go hump some stupid job for some jerk for a generation or so and see how it feels and yes, I am profoundly unpatriotic (SSGT. U.S. Army 1968-1974). Ever been in the military service Mr. Yarrow?
The funds from the IMF's gold sale would be used to buy US government and corporate bonds to generate income and plug a $400m shortfall in funds
Huh? Excuse my ignorance, but who gave the IMF any gold at all? So, am I to understand that the IMF is going to sell gold (owned mainly by the U.S.), to pay off their operating debts, by buying U.S. government and corporate bonds?
This makes the IMF a preferred party in the event of a bankruptcy of our government and corporate entities. And it's being done with borrowed gold? This makes no sense at all. And Congress is behind this!!!!!
Please tell me that I've got it wrong.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
This PhD from American U. in Wash. (I think). His name is Andrew Yarrow and he put this piece together. His basic thesis is that "It is profoundly unpatriotic to retire at age 65 or before." He wants the boomers to work to at least 70 years old and preferrably beyond that.
Here's his bio:http://www.american.edu/cas/hist/faculty/yarrow.htm Typical attitude by an elitist academic who's never worked for anyone but large quasi-governmental agencies. Has never worked a 9 to 5 job, except for the NY Times. Clinton appointee. This guy is a policy advisor. Big trouble brewing.
When they start throwing around the word "unpatriotic" about people who have paid into the system for 40+ years, what kind of class warfare is coming?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i> When they start throwing around the word "unpatriotic" about people who have paid into the system for 40+ years, what kind of class warfare is coming? >>
Well, for one, you won't get any of the benefits unless you are 'poor', and/or elderly. However they define it (under 20k income, over 75).
The SS and Medicare systems as they are, are unsustainable. Most people will be forced to donate their FICA taxes to the system without receiving the promised benefits.
Here is a sample of the debate to come: If you disagree with this you are obviously unpatriotic. "Do not ask what your country can do for you", you are making a sacrifice for our country. Do you want that grandmother over there to freeze out in the cold? If so, you are obviously a heartless rich guy (probably white) with no compassion for your fellow Americans.
Mark Piersall Random Collector www.marksmedals.com
I would like to know who took my money. And, I don't mean Congress took my money, I want to know what aliens, what arthritus sufferers, what distant relatives of someone that worked, what unemployed legal immigrants that have children, what people that haven't worked a day in their lives and don't intend to start now, took my money. Say something like an average of about $150/month for thirty years at 8% interest; where is my money? I wish someone in a position of authority would ask that question to congress. "Where is our money?" followed by, "Who did you give it to?" and "We want it back, now!"
I'm sure you already know this, but you have no gov't created nest egg (and if you did, it sure wouldn't have earned 8%!). It's a scheme where current workers fund current retirees. It's essentially a tax on workers to provide an entitlement to non-workers. Unfortunately, the only recent politician to attempt to tackle the problem was George Bush, even before he got elected. And you saw how far that went. The level of fear, inertia, and lobby influence in this country is astounding sometimes.
<< <i> When they start throwing around the word "unpatriotic" about people who have paid into the system for 40+ years, what kind of class warfare is coming? >>
>>
The same kind that comes out of any other socialist regime/society. That kind.
Take a clue from Arrianna Huffington. She lived in a million+ dollar mansion, paid no income tax, *but* paid $800 in social security taxes. If you run the calculations, you'll see she has the maximum social security and medicare benefit from the minimum tax paid.
<< <i>Take a clue from Arrianna Huffington. She lived in a million+ dollar mansion, paid no income tax, *but* paid $800 in social security taxes. If you run the calculations, you'll see she has the maximum social security and medicare benefit from the minimum tax paid. >>
It would be interesting to see how many people in this country wish they could do the same as opposed to the amount of people who would prefer to be left OUT of it entirely.
"Clinton appointee. This guy is a policy advisor. Big trouble brewing." Aw, man, another one of those people pinned down by sniper fire on the tarmac.
"Do you want that grandmother over there to freeze out in the cold?" Sounds like a State/local govt. welfare issue, just what does this have to do with the Federal retirement program?
Aw, man, another one of those people pinned down by sniper fire on the tarmac.
In order to protect yourself, you have to have enough earnings or savings to allow you to protect them. If you don't have capital, you can't even do that.
It's funny that when I first started putting money into precious metals as a savings plan, I felt somewhat like a kook - almost as if I wasn't really being rational in buying metals.
Now, it's 10 years later. I've had 10 years to see what actually has happened to my PMs versus what actually happened to my stock holdings.
Case closed.
Added:
If you buy precious metals, you have nobody but yourself to blame and/or depend on. If you buy or hold paper, you are depending on the government to stabilize the currencey (which they don't), and upon company managements to manage the company correctly and not to screw you as a shareholder.
Case closed, again.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It's interesting how oil and gold are decoupling recently. I guess it's easier for central banks to prop up the dollar relative to gold than it is to do so relative to oil.
<< <i>It's interesting how oil and gold are decoupling recently. I guess it's easier for central banks to prop up the dollar relative to gold than it is to do so relative to oil. >>
possibly and i have noticed the divergence.
any other guesses? SWAGS? please no monday-morning-quarterbacking-graphs (small peeve)
I think we may have a permanent decoupling of oil and gold. The government and the Dems in particular hate gold as they have a hard time with collecting taxes, and in fact for those that think they are already being over taxed there may be no taxes, if you get my drift.
Last election the Dems said they would fix all these problems, but I guess not? I see no bills to fix anything, being vetoed by the President.
The congress controls much of what the price of gas is.
1st they control all speculation in day-to-day oil prices since they control the regulatory arm of government.
2nd they could cut the price of gas from 5% to 35% by just eliminating some of THEIR gas taxes.
3rd they control all offshore drilling along the continental U.S. as well as places like Alaska.
4th they control ALL of the billions in subsides and who receives same for all the various types of fuel.
I could go on but it is obvious that the Dems are in bed with BIG OIL, HA HA HA
“The Federal Reserve [just] put $200 billion more onto its balance sheet of mortgages. Now I don’t know how big they can expand their balance sheet, but if they keep doing it, there’s only so much they can do.”
It seems to me that the public and Wall Street believe there is no end to how much the Fed will print.
It seems like each day there is another collapsed entity, here is today’s,
“April 8 (Bloomberg) -- First Marblehead Corp., the third- largest U.S. arranger of securities backed by student loans, tumbled as much as 39 percent after the guarantor of its loans sought bankruptcy protection.
First Marblehead dropped $3 to $4.70 at 10:41 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after Education Resources Institute Inc., or TERI, filed for Chapter 11 in Boston yesterday. First Marblehead declined 82 percent in the past 12 months before today.
The bankruptcy filing means Boston-based First Marblehead may incur losses from any defaults, Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Matt Snowling said. TERI, the largest nonprofit guarantor of private student loans with $16 billion insured, cited added cash demands from a credit-rating downgrades for its failing finances. “
An IMF sale of 400 tons of gold, even if approved through Congress would do little to the pog. They've already cried wolf on this once so each successive threat to sell gold is less meaningfull. Considering that an IMF sale would be bought directly by Central Banks, and not the little people, it would have little effect on trading levels. Similar stunts in the 1970's only shot gold higher. You can equate this to the Redfield or Continental Bank silver dollar hoards that only boosted the prices of Morgans in the end.
Suggesting such an action only shows how desperate Helicopter Ben really is. And they get just as much bang for the buck with a bluff than with an actual sale.
Jim Rogers has turned into a real jerk off and pansy. He's sooo interested in freedom and how Un-Constritutional the Fed is etc etc blah blah blah yet where was this big mouth when it came to writing big checks to the Ron Paul campaign? Nowhere to be found.
So now he's traded in one big brother environment for an Asian big brother AND talk expletive with the BBC? LOL, what a dirtbag.
Right before the greatest bull market run in history, he said to go put your money in a German bank so they'd be protected in deutsche marks, not US dollars.
And now 14 years later, and 4x on the Dow, the dollar declines a bit and he's a genus.
<< <i>Right before the greatest bull market run in history, he said to go put your money in a German bank so they'd be protected in deutsche marks, not US dollars.
And now 14 years later, and 4x on the Dow, the dollar declines a bit and he's a genus. >>
Even the Brits on the television interview were sort of laughing at him. That's really pathetic. Americans are not laughed at by Brits ANYWHERE. ( I can tell you stories when I lived in Thailand )
But they also see this guy for what he is and now , he's got no honor at all.
Funny about the Brits, many Brits know all about the socialism and LOTS of them are seen everywhere in the world, ESCAPING from big brother. Most Americans wouldn't even know what a passport looks like much less have one. We're about the same on the freedom scale as England is at this point. We all know what happened to the british empire.
I'm not necessarily in disagreement with this pansy who is now in Singapore about leaving. If you think you can find your place in the sun, whether it's LOS, an island in the PI, or wherever, that's great. Go for it. What I absolutely disagree with is leaving and then opening your mouth and critisizing where you come from. I hope the Singaporeans teach this jerk off a lesson.
Another short and to the point article about how the FED is the sole source of monetary inflation and doing a very poor job of price control.
Some nice graphs on JPM's and Goldman's role in supressing commodities as soon as M3 reporting was canned, and inflation was set to over-drive. You got to hand it to these guys, they are well-coordinated in their attacks (ie natural gas, uranium, gold, etc.). If they could find a way to make 50-1 leveraged rice derivatives and short it, they would.
<< <i>Sort of expected. Another test of the $880-$905 level and I'd say time for another run upwards. Some attractive share prices at these levels. $20's haven't budged much in all this cycling...a good sign.
Well, that was a short 3 hour correction. Hitting about $905 and then coming right back.
Oil's response to the FED's liquidity injections is what one would expect To start blaming the oil companies and the milk man for rising prices is absurd. The FED, Treasury, and major banks/brokerages are the source of all this. They should get the blame, yet they keep on talking out the side of their faces saying how "WE" need to stop rising prices. Mrs. Pot.........meet Mr. Kettle. What do you think happens when you create TRILLIONs in liquidity out of thin air?
roadrunner >>
there is an article in the WSJ today that says pretty much the same thing, except for the fact that the FED may be trying some unprecedented maneuvers soon. it's scary to think that congressmen/women who do know jackdung about the central banking system, role of the FED and the Treasury will be deciding what to do...if i have the time i'll link it but if anyone wants a copy a PM to me will get it, too
"They’re trying to drive down the dollar. I’m trying to be patriotic. I’m trying to sell dollars. That’s what they want. I’m trying to help them drive down the value of the currency.
Here's an interesting artical. And to think some Americans think that oil comes out of the groud in our country. This is exactly why an oil company must take it's profits quick because after the huge investment some countries start to tighen the screws on them and even nationalize the industry.
Would anyone bet there best coin, a roll of silver will be worth at least as much as one ounce of gold in the next 5 to 10 years?
Yes and No. Yes it will happen......no I won't take the bet.
Figuring a roll of silver at 20 coins....20 oz. Then we're looking at 20-1 silver to gold. While I think silver will easily beat a 20-1 ratio to gold (potential to 5:1 or 10:1) I won't tie up money to bet on it, unless you want to leverage me 3:1 to 5:1 odds. I'm already taking this bet by holding physical silver for 5 years. And I expect silver will beat gold by many multiples. So by holding silver I can make 2.6X my money if it gets to 20-1. Unless you can give me lots better than 2.6-1, the bet makes no sense.
Reading the finanical news today and seeing the scouring that GE Management is taking from finanical analysts on the "street" in not making their numbers I could only chuckle. Here are analysts from JPM and other companies dumping on GE for not hitting their #'s due to credit derivative's fallout. Imagine the gall of those at JPM and other brokerages/banks having the nerve to criticize anyone else's balance sheet or business model as they sit essentially insolvent on TRILLIONs of worthless credit and derivatives. It takes all kinds. But with the FED behind you as the almighty bail bondsman, I guess you can laugh at everyone else all the way to the bank....and the brig.
A nice example showing how the CPI accounts for the price of TV sets dropping by 60% over the past several years, all the while you pay 3X more to bring it home. Quality affects at their finest. Another reason why the CPI remains unusually low while your pocket book says otherwise.
Reading the finanical news today and seeing the scouring that GE Management is taking from finanical analysts on the "street" in not making their numbers I could only chuckle. Here are analysts from JPM and other companies dumping on GE for not hitting their #'s due to credit derivative's fallout. Imagine the gall of those at JPM and other brokerages/banks having the nerve to criticize anyone else's balance sheet or business model as they sit essentially insolvent on TRILLIONs of worthless credit and derivatives. It takes all kinds. But with the FED behind you as the almighty bail bondsman, I guess you can laugh at everyone else all the way to the bank....and the brig.
A nice example showing how the CPI accounts for the price of TV sets dropping by 60% over the past several years, all the while you pay 3X more to bring it home. Quality affects at their finest. Another reason why the CPI remains unusually low while your pocket book says otherwise.
roadrunner >>
GE is interesting, considering any pull back would be a buying opportunity in my opinion, since I can only tell you this they are leaders in there industry, and have been for many years..
looking at the chart, profit taking on heavy volume, I would be a buyer in the mid 20s. to upper 20s. They pay a dividend too.
It also appears that they were the only sellers. Here are analysts from JPM and other companies dumping, yea dumping stock to cover butts.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
HonoluluDude that was a great link to John Williams interview.
His shadow stats currently show:
7% yoy M2 increase 17% yoy M3 increase 11% CPI calculated by the 1980 methods (vs 4% from the BLS))
He notes the M3 increase is now the largest since 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold window. We are increasing liquidity at rates not seen in decades yet we have low inflation?? It seems the FED is pulling out all the stops.
Like many of the U.S. Generals that quit/resined from there position of leadership, Because Bush, Rice, and Chaney cant get it through there think heads we want peace over war, Now the Iraqi are quiting from there Lead rolls.
How the heck do we still support this war ? The house, needs cleaning! Almost 70% of America is against this. Why are we allowing to be lead by this dictatorship corroding our Government, and coin?
not only does house need cleaning, but it needs downsizing by at least 1/2. We, the American taxpapers, pay way too much money for stupid and unnecessary crap.
A couple of comments on the John Williams interview.
He points out that on a US GAAP basis, our deficit jumps from roughly $ 400 billion to $ 4 trillion. What one should conclude from this is that social security benefits will definitely be cut -- this is a certainty, it is just a matter of when and how much.
I have no doubt that inflation exceeds reported figures (although inflation is very hard to measure due to changes in quality and consumption patterns) Very broadly speaking, I think prices are about 10x what they were in the mid sixties, which is not far off our governments figures. I like the postal rate measure of inflation -- going from a postage rate of 4c in the early sixties to a rate of 41c now is a remarkably plausible measure, perhaps in the category of sad but true.
Regarding M3, I wonder if his 17 % figure reflects the contraction in M3 that would result from the deflationary aspects of the subprime and related "crises". I have some doubt about that number. One thing people tend to forget is that Ben Bernanke is pumping money into the system to replace a contraction that occurs as institutions go belly up. In any case, I would be curious to see the details of the M3 calculation.
I'd be willing to bet that Mr. Williams would respond to your questions on behalf of the CU US Coin forum. His methodolgogy for computing M3 should be no different than what the FED used prior to 2006. Those numbers should be available and the assumptions unchanged.
When analyzing the 10X increase in the price of a stamp from 1964 to date that is not a measurement of monetary inflation. It is a measure of the effect of price increases resulting from some amount of monetary inflation. Over the past 15 years our monetary inflation has far exceeded the price inflation throughout the economy. But the reasons for keeping the prices of our goods at bay is disappearing. Cheap foreign labor and goods are not so cheap anymore. Endless liquidity (ie debt) at low interest rates is now longer available. While we have increased the price of a car only 4X or so since 1982, but increased money stocks 13X, says that something is amiss. And what's amiss is that certain favored assets such as homes and stocks have gone on a gourging spree to the detremint of everything else. In that same time period PM's and commodities have lagged. Gold in particular is now only 1X-2X the 1980 price. Clearly something is not right if housing, cars, appliances, and other durable items have increased 3X, 4X, etc. yet gold has lagged. Can you say managed commodities? Commodities have much catching up to do with the price of other "favored" assets groups, even after the gains of the past 7 years. But what has always occurred as the result of monetary inflation, is that the amount of currency debasement eventually finds its way to prices and evens up the slate. Whatever we've been short on this over the past 25 years due to cheap imports and endless free liquidity lunches is going to be evened out in the next several years. Prices of goods today will seem absurdly cheap down the road.
The CPI no longer measures the price changes on a fixed basket of goods from a previous point in time. It doesn't even measure a set standard of living. It only reports what today's basket of selected goods costs. And the selections change frequently enough so as to make comparisons to prior years sort of useless.
Regarding M3, I wonder if his 17 % figure reflects the contraction in M3 that would result from the deflationary aspects of the subprime and related "crises". I have some doubt about that number.
I doubt the 17% figure reflects all the new liquidity accounts that the FED has set up for banks. This revolving stream of hundreds of Billions of dollars in endlessly re-approved 28 day loans will probably not be accounted for in the monetary system. The FED is creating new ways of injecting liquidity w/o it showing up on the balance sheet. The M3 number was in the 10-12% per year range when the FED canceled its publication. They knew they would be taking things to record heights and did not want M3 to be visible. A 17% number is quite reasonable imo. The FED will keep the deflationary aspects of the subprime at bay by accepting junk collateral from banks/brokerages while continuing to relax margin requirements on sub-prime assets held. If it means delaying "marked to market" accounting for several more years, or turning a blind eye, they will do so. What the FED says or allows goes, regardless of FAS157 rules.
So if we are going into a hyperinflationary spiral, should I make all the capital improvements to my home now? Should I buy more real estate? If the raw materials to build a new home are going to explode, then existing homes should be relatively cheap. Seems the best play is to take on a lot of (currently) low interest debt and buy as much hard assets as possible.
I think a lot of the home oversupply is expensive but relatively small "luxury" condos that have low amounts of raw materials relative to the prices. Of course those prices are falling but still way out of the average person's budget. Even in Lexington Kentucky, which is isn't a big bubble area, there was a front page article about how all the new downtown condos are flopping and half the builders have liens against them. Also with the banks so desperate for cash I can see them calling in loans.
<< <i>I think a lot of the home oversupply is expensive but relatively small "luxury" condos that have low amounts of raw materials relative to the prices. Of course those prices are falling but still way out of the average person's budget. Even in Lexington Kentucky, which is isn't a big bubble area, there was a front page article about how all the new downtown condos are flopping and half the builders have liens against them. Also with the banks so desperate for cash I can see them calling in loans. >>
One would sell euros, buy dollars, sell Aud buy dollars, sell yen buy dollars, sell franks buy dollars.
we are close to a bottom, but not yet, the euro is topped may go a little higher.
With the hyper inflation idea, one only has to look at the Australian dollar, and see how it is at its 17 year high, to understand were the dollar will go. Right now the dollar should go lower, about a penny lower, before it recovers. IMHO, unless we enter a depression. Any one do Elliot wave trading here?
Interest rates will go lower before we have inflation.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Years ago Warren Buffet said the dollar would fall because of the huge trade deficit and we still have that huge deficit. The G7 will give a bounce but the fundamental problem (trade deficit) remains so long term the dollar keeps going down. Are foreigners going to buy US dolllars to buy treasuries with negative real yields or more of the the very dubious "AAA" rated junk?
I've looked at the Elliot Wave stuff but the kind of deflation they've predicted hasn't happened. Food prices are going up so fast that there are increasing riots acrosss the globe.
<< <i>Years ago Warren Buffet said the dollar would fall because of the huge trade deficit and we still have that huge deficit. The G7 will give a bounce but the fundamental problem (trade deficit) remains so long term the dollar keeps going down. Are foreigners going to buy US dolllars to buy treasuries with negative real yields or more of the the very dubious "AAA" rated junk?
I've looked at the Elliot Wave stuff but the kind of deflation they've predicted hasn't happened. Food prices are going up so fast that there are increasing riots acrosss the globe. >>
Your absolutely right. Could be the end of an empire is near.
That makes me worry. You can wait for interest rates to fall, and buy 2 year bonds.
If history is correct I made a short list of things that can happen.
1. The dollar recovers. Possible 2. world war 3 very possible 3. Impeach Bush, clean house. Not probable 4. Great depression. possible
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Comments
My basic concern is that since I am in the first generation that has worked their whole lives under the social security donation system, and since the fund seems to be mostly empty...I would like to know who took my money. And, I don't mean Congress took my money, I want to know what aliens, what arthritus sufferers, what distant relatives of someone that worked, what unemployed legal immigrants that have children, what people that haven't worked a day in their lives and don't intend to start now, took my money. Say something like an average of about $150/month for thirty years at 8% interest; where is my money? I wish someone in a position of authority would ask that question to congress. "Where is our money?" followed by, "Who did you give it to?" and "We want it back, now!"
Oh yes, Mr., oh...PhD. Yarrow; I'm going to retire at 65, maybe at 62 and I will suck every nickel I can from the fund. All you slackers and dreamers can go suck eggs, and the stinkin' check better come every damn month. And, I don't appreciate some academic telling me to wait till I'm 70 to get my money. And while you're at it PhD in the ivy halls, go hump some stupid job for some jerk for a generation or so and see how it feels and yes, I am profoundly unpatriotic (SSGT. U.S. Army 1968-1974). Ever been in the military service Mr. Yarrow?
Thank you, I feel much better now.
<< <i>Another correction for gold?
IMF plans gold sale to raise $6bn >>
if they need to sell (some of) their piggy bank to stay afloat that would mean the opposite to me for gold (long term)
Huh? Excuse my ignorance, but who gave the IMF any gold at all? So, am I to understand that the IMF is going to sell gold (owned mainly by the U.S.), to pay off their operating debts, by buying U.S. government and corporate bonds?
This makes the IMF a preferred party in the event of a bankruptcy of our government and corporate entities. And it's being done with borrowed gold? This makes no sense at all. And Congress is behind this!!!!!
Please tell me that I've got it wrong.
I knew it would happen.
Here's his bio:http://www.american.edu/cas/hist/faculty/yarrow.htm
Typical attitude by an elitist academic who's never worked for anyone but large quasi-governmental agencies. Has never worked a 9 to 5 job, except for the NY Times. Clinton appointee. This guy is a policy advisor. Big trouble brewing.
When they start throwing around the word "unpatriotic" about people who have paid into the system for 40+ years, what kind of class warfare is coming?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
When they start throwing around the word "unpatriotic" about people who have paid into the system for 40+ years, what kind of class warfare is coming? >>
Well, for one, you won't get any of the benefits unless you are 'poor', and/or elderly. However they define it (under 20k income, over 75).
The SS and Medicare systems as they are, are unsustainable. Most people will be forced to donate their FICA taxes to the system without receiving the promised benefits.
Here is a sample of the debate to come:
If you disagree with this you are obviously unpatriotic. "Do not ask what your country can do for you", you are making a sacrifice for our country. Do you want that grandmother over there to freeze out in the cold? If so, you are obviously a heartless rich guy (probably white) with no compassion for your fellow Americans.
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
I'm sure you already know this, but you have no gov't created nest egg (and if you did, it sure wouldn't have earned 8%!). It's a scheme where current workers fund current retirees. It's essentially a tax on workers to provide an entitlement to non-workers. Unfortunately, the only recent politician to attempt to tackle the problem was George Bush, even before he got elected. And you saw how far that went. The level of fear, inertia, and lobby influence in this country is astounding sometimes.
Wow!
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
<< <i>
When they start throwing around the word "unpatriotic" about people who have paid into the system for 40+ years, what kind of class warfare is coming? >>
>>
The same kind that comes out of any other socialist regime/society. That kind.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Take a clue from Arrianna Huffington. She lived in a million+ dollar mansion, paid no income tax, *but* paid $800 in social security taxes. If you run the calculations, you'll see she has the maximum social security and medicare benefit from the minimum tax paid.
<< <i>Take a clue from Arrianna Huffington. She lived in a million+ dollar mansion, paid no income tax, *but* paid $800 in social security taxes. If you run the calculations, you'll see she has the maximum social security and medicare benefit from the minimum tax paid. >>
It would be interesting to see how many people in this country wish they could do the same as opposed to the amount of people who would prefer to be left OUT of it entirely.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Aw, man, another one of those people pinned down by sniper fire on the tarmac.
"Do you want that grandmother over there to freeze out in the cold?"
Sounds like a State/local govt. welfare issue, just what does this have to do with the Federal retirement program?
In order to protect yourself, you have to have enough earnings or savings to allow you to protect them. If you don't have capital, you can't even do that.
It's funny that when I first started putting money into precious metals as a savings plan, I felt somewhat like a kook - almost as if I wasn't really being rational in buying metals.
Now, it's 10 years later. I've had 10 years to see what actually has happened to my PMs versus what actually happened to my stock holdings.
Case closed.
Added:
If you buy precious metals, you have nobody but yourself to blame and/or depend on. If you buy or hold paper, you are depending on the government to stabilize the currencey (which they don't), and upon company managements to manage the company correctly and not to screw you as a shareholder.
Case closed, again.
I knew it would happen.
but all my eggs won't be there.....yet
<< <i>It's interesting how oil and gold are decoupling recently. I guess it's easier for central banks to prop up the dollar relative to gold than it is to do so relative to oil. >>
possibly and i have noticed the divergence.
any other guesses? SWAGS? please no monday-morning-quarterbacking-graphs (small peeve)
I think we may have a permanent decoupling of oil and gold. The government and the Dems in particular hate gold as they have a hard time with collecting taxes, and in fact for those that think they are already being over taxed there may be no taxes, if you get my drift.
Last election the Dems said they would fix all these problems, but I guess not?
I see no bills to fix anything, being vetoed by the President.
The congress controls much of what the price of gas is.
1st they control all speculation in day-to-day oil prices since they control the regulatory arm of government.
2nd they could cut the price of gas from 5% to 35% by just eliminating some of THEIR gas taxes.
3rd they control all offshore drilling along the continental U.S. as well as places like Alaska.
4th they control ALL of the billions in subsides and who receives same for all the various types of fuel.
I could go on but it is obvious that the Dems are in bed with BIG OIL, HA HA HA
<< <i>I could go on but it is obvious that the Dems are in bed with BIG OIL, HA HA HA >>
And the Bush Administration is not?
Why not just say government is in bed with oil?
Respectfully,
Artist
>>>My Collection
But I do not know about this,
“The Federal Reserve [just] put $200 billion more onto its balance sheet of mortgages. Now I don’t know how big they can expand their balance sheet, but if they keep doing it, there’s only so much they can do.”
It seems to me that the public and Wall Street believe there is no end to how much the Fed will print.
It seems like each day there is another collapsed entity, here is today’s,
“April 8 (Bloomberg) -- First Marblehead Corp., the third- largest U.S. arranger of securities backed by student loans, tumbled as much as 39 percent after the guarantor of its loans sought bankruptcy protection.
First Marblehead dropped $3 to $4.70 at 10:41 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after Education Resources Institute Inc., or TERI, filed for Chapter 11 in Boston yesterday. First Marblehead declined 82 percent in the past 12 months before today.
The bankruptcy filing means Boston-based First Marblehead may incur losses from any defaults, Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Matt Snowling said. TERI, the largest nonprofit guarantor of private student loans with $16 billion insured, cited added cash demands from a credit-rating downgrades for its failing finances. “
Suggesting such an action only shows how desperate Helicopter Ben really is. And they get just as much bang for the buck with a bluff than with an actual sale.
roadrunner
Camelot
<< <i>Jim Rogers on the Fed and the dollar >>
Jim Rogers has turned into a real jerk off and pansy. He's sooo interested in freedom and how Un-Constritutional the Fed is etc etc blah blah blah yet where was this big mouth when it came to writing big checks to the Ron Paul campaign? Nowhere to be found.
So now he's traded in one big brother environment for an Asian big brother AND talk expletive with the BBC? LOL, what a dirtbag.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Right before the greatest bull market run in history, he said to go put your money in a German bank so they'd be protected in deutsche marks, not US dollars.
And now 14 years later, and 4x on the Dow, the dollar declines a bit and he's a genus.
<< <i>Right before the greatest bull market run in history, he said to go put your money in a German bank so they'd be protected in deutsche marks, not US dollars.
And now 14 years later, and 4x on the Dow, the dollar declines a bit and he's a genus. >>
Even the Brits on the television interview were sort of laughing at him. That's really pathetic. Americans are not laughed at by Brits ANYWHERE. ( I can tell you stories when I lived in Thailand )
But they also see this guy for what he is and now , he's got no honor at all.
Funny about the Brits, many Brits know all about the socialism and LOTS of them are seen everywhere in the world, ESCAPING from big brother. Most Americans wouldn't even know what a passport looks like much less have one. We're about the same on the freedom scale as England is at this point. We all know what happened to the british empire.
I'm not necessarily in disagreement with this pansy who is now in Singapore about leaving. If you think you can find your place in the sun, whether it's LOS, an island in the PI, or wherever, that's great. Go for it. What I absolutely disagree with is leaving and then opening your mouth and critisizing where you come from. I hope the Singaporeans teach this jerk off a lesson.
My bets are on them doing so.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Another short and to the point article about how the FED is the sole source of monetary inflation and doing a very poor job of price control.
Some nice graphs on JPM's and Goldman's role in supressing commodities as soon as M3 reporting was canned, and inflation was set to over-drive. You got to hand it to these guys, they are well-coordinated in their attacks (ie natural gas, uranium, gold, etc.). If they could find a way to make 50-1 leveraged rice derivatives and short it, they would.
roadrunner
<< <i>Sort of expected. Another test of the $880-$905 level and I'd say time for another run upwards. Some attractive share prices at these levels. $20's haven't budged much in all this cycling...a good sign.
Well, that was a short 3 hour correction. Hitting about $905 and then coming right back.
Oil's response to the FED's liquidity injections is what one would expect To start blaming the oil companies and the milk man for rising prices is absurd. The FED, Treasury, and major banks/brokerages are the source of all this. They should get the blame, yet they keep on talking out the side of their faces saying how "WE" need to stop rising prices. Mrs. Pot.........meet Mr. Kettle. What do you think happens when you create TRILLIONs in liquidity out of thin air?
roadrunner >>
there is an article in the WSJ today that says pretty much the same thing, except for the fact that the FED may be trying some unprecedented maneuvers soon. it's scary to think that congressmen/women who do know jackdung about the central banking system, role of the FED and the Treasury will be deciding what to do...if i have the time i'll link it but if anyone wants a copy a PM to me will get it, too
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Jim Rogers on the Fed and the dollar >>
I love this quote by Rogers:
"They’re trying to drive down the dollar. I’m trying to be patriotic. I’m trying to sell dollars. That’s what they want. I’m trying to help them drive down the value of the currency.
All Americans should."
Tyler
Venezuela to Demand Exxon Relinquish Refinery Control (Update2)
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Yes and No. Yes it will happen......no I won't take the bet.
Figuring a roll of silver at 20 coins....20 oz. Then we're looking at 20-1 silver to gold. While I think silver will easily beat a 20-1 ratio to gold (potential to 5:1 or 10:1) I won't tie up money to bet on it, unless you want to leverage me 3:1 to 5:1 odds. I'm already taking this bet by holding physical silver for 5 years. And I expect silver will beat gold by many multiples. So by holding silver I can make 2.6X my money if it gets to 20-1. Unless you can give me lots better than 2.6-1, the bet makes no sense.
Reading the finanical news today and seeing the scouring that GE Management is taking from finanical analysts on the "street" in not making their numbers I could only chuckle. Here are analysts from JPM and other companies dumping on GE for not hitting their #'s due to credit derivative's fallout. Imagine the gall of those at JPM and other brokerages/banks having the nerve to criticize anyone else's balance sheet or business model as they sit essentially insolvent on TRILLIONs of worthless credit and derivatives. It takes all kinds. But with the FED behind you as the almighty bail bondsman, I guess you can laugh at everyone else all the way to the bank....and the brig.
CPI gem from Tim Iacono
A nice example showing how the CPI accounts for the price of TV sets dropping by 60% over the past several years, all the while you pay 3X more to bring it home. Quality affects at their finest. Another reason why the CPI remains unusually low while your pocket book says otherwise.
roadrunner
<< <i>
Reading the finanical news today and seeing the scouring that GE Management is taking from finanical analysts on the "street" in not making their numbers I could only chuckle. Here are analysts from JPM and other companies dumping on GE for not hitting their #'s due to credit derivative's fallout. Imagine the gall of those at JPM and other brokerages/banks having the nerve to criticize anyone else's balance sheet or business model as they sit essentially insolvent on TRILLIONs of worthless credit and derivatives. It takes all kinds. But with the FED behind you as the almighty bail bondsman, I guess you can laugh at everyone else all the way to the bank....and the brig.
CPI gem from Tim Iacono
A nice example showing how the CPI accounts for the price of TV sets dropping by 60% over the past several years, all the while you pay 3X more to bring it home. Quality affects at their finest. Another reason why the CPI remains unusually low while your pocket book says otherwise.
roadrunner >>
GE is interesting, considering any pull back would be a buying opportunity in my opinion, since I can only tell you this they are leaders in there industry, and have been for many years..
looking at the chart, profit taking on heavy volume, I would be a buyer in the mid 20s. to upper 20s. They pay a dividend too.
It also appears that they were the only sellers. Here are analysts from JPM and other companies dumping, yea dumping stock to cover butts.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
His shadow stats currently show:
7% yoy M2 increase
17% yoy M3 increase
11% CPI calculated by the 1980 methods (vs 4% from the BLS))
He notes the M3 increase is now the largest since 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold window. We are increasing liquidity at rates not seen in decades yet we have low inflation?? It seems the FED is pulling out all the stops.
roadrunner
Like many of the U.S. Generals that quit/resined from there position of leadership, Because Bush, Rice, and Chaney cant get it through there think heads we want peace over war, Now the Iraqi are quiting from there Lead rolls.
How the heck do we still support this war ? The house, needs cleaning! Almost 70% of America is against this. Why are we allowing to be lead by this dictatorship corroding our Government, and coin?
This is good news.
Now if they all stop supporting America then what happens? we steal there county, or go home?
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
He points out that on a US GAAP basis, our deficit jumps from roughly $ 400 billion to $ 4 trillion. What one should conclude from this is that social security benefits will definitely be cut -- this is a certainty, it is just a matter of when and how much.
I have no doubt that inflation exceeds reported figures (although inflation is very hard to measure due to changes in quality and consumption patterns) Very broadly speaking, I think prices are about 10x what they were in the mid sixties, which is not far off our governments figures. I like the postal rate measure of inflation -- going from a postage rate of 4c in the early sixties to a rate of 41c now is a remarkably plausible measure, perhaps in the category of sad but true.
Regarding M3, I wonder if his 17 % figure reflects the contraction in M3 that would result from the deflationary aspects of the subprime and related "crises". I have some doubt about that number. One thing people tend to forget is that Ben Bernanke is pumping money into the system to replace a contraction that occurs as institutions go belly up. In any case, I would be curious to see the details of the M3 calculation.
When analyzing the 10X increase in the price of a stamp from 1964 to date that is not a measurement of monetary inflation. It is a measure of the effect of price increases resulting from some amount of monetary inflation. Over the past 15 years our monetary inflation has far exceeded the price inflation throughout the economy. But the reasons for keeping the prices of our goods at bay is disappearing. Cheap foreign labor and goods are not so cheap anymore. Endless liquidity (ie debt) at low interest rates is now longer available. While we have increased the price of a car only 4X or so since 1982, but increased money stocks 13X, says that something is amiss. And what's amiss is that certain favored assets such as homes and stocks have gone on a gourging spree to the detremint of everything else. In that same time period PM's and commodities have lagged. Gold in particular is now only 1X-2X the 1980 price. Clearly something is not right if housing, cars, appliances, and other durable items have increased 3X, 4X, etc. yet gold has lagged. Can you say managed commodities? Commodities have much catching up to do with the price of other "favored" assets groups, even after the gains of the past 7 years. But what has always occurred as the result of monetary inflation, is that the amount of currency debasement eventually finds its way to prices and evens up the slate. Whatever we've been short on this over the past 25 years due to cheap imports and endless free liquidity lunches is going to be evened out in the next several years. Prices of goods today will seem absurdly cheap down the road.
The CPI no longer measures the price changes on a fixed basket of goods from a previous point in time. It doesn't even measure a set standard of living. It only reports what today's basket of selected goods costs. And the selections change frequently enough so as to make comparisons to prior years sort of useless.
Regarding M3, I wonder if his 17 % figure reflects the contraction in M3 that would result from the deflationary aspects of the subprime and related "crises". I have some doubt about that number.
I doubt the 17% figure reflects all the new liquidity accounts that the FED has set up for banks. This revolving stream of hundreds of Billions of dollars in endlessly re-approved 28 day loans will probably not be accounted for in the monetary system. The FED is creating new ways of injecting liquidity w/o it showing up on the balance sheet. The M3 number was in the 10-12% per year range when the FED canceled its publication. They knew they would be taking things to record heights and did not want M3 to be visible. A 17% number is quite reasonable imo. The FED will keep the deflationary aspects of the subprime at bay by accepting junk collateral from banks/brokerages while continuing to relax margin requirements on sub-prime assets held. If it means delaying "marked to market" accounting for several more years, or turning a blind eye, they will do so. What the FED says or allows goes, regardless of FAS157 rules.
roadrunner
I love eavesdropping in on all your brilliant minds.
Thanks,
Ren
<< <i>
<< <i>I could go on but it is obvious that the Dems are in bed with BIG OIL, HA HA HA >>
And the Bush Administration is not?
Why not just say government is in bed with oil?
Respectfully,
Artist >>
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A change in rhetoric?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Bear Stearns, Jim Cramer, The Federal Reserve, JP Morgan
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>I think a lot of the home oversupply is expensive but relatively small "luxury" condos that have low amounts of raw materials relative to the prices. Of course those prices are falling but still way out of the average person's budget. Even in Lexington Kentucky, which is isn't a big bubble area, there was a front page article about how all the new downtown condos are flopping and half the builders have liens against them. Also with the banks so desperate for cash I can see them calling in loans. >>
One would sell euros, buy dollars, sell Aud buy dollars, sell yen buy dollars, sell franks buy dollars.
we are close to a bottom, but not yet, the euro is topped may go a little higher.
With the hyper inflation idea, one only has to look at the Australian dollar, and see how it is at its 17 year high, to understand were the dollar will go. Right now the dollar should go lower, about a penny lower, before it recovers. IMHO, unless we enter a depression.
Any one do Elliot wave trading here?
Interest rates will go lower before we have inflation.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
I've looked at the Elliot Wave stuff but the kind of deflation they've predicted hasn't happened. Food prices are going up so fast that there are increasing riots acrosss the globe.
<< <i>Years ago Warren Buffet said the dollar would fall because of the huge trade deficit and we still have that huge deficit. The G7 will give a bounce but the fundamental problem (trade deficit) remains so long term the dollar keeps going down. Are foreigners going to buy US dolllars to buy treasuries with negative real yields or more of the the very dubious "AAA" rated junk?
I've looked at the Elliot Wave stuff but the kind of deflation they've predicted hasn't happened. Food prices are going up so fast that there are increasing riots acrosss the globe. >>
Your absolutely right. Could be the end of an empire is near.
That makes me worry.
You can wait for interest rates to fall, and buy 2 year bonds.
If history is correct I made a short list of things that can happen.
1. The dollar recovers. Possible
2. world war 3 very possible
3. Impeach Bush, clean house. Not probable
4. Great depression. possible
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.