2. Excess in any economy must eventually be purged at great sacrifice
3. How long will this purge take? Probable a decade or more.
4. US Government bonds are terribly overpriced and stand to lose 40% in value for those who sell before their expiration date.
5. The Fed missed a golden opportunity to correct a significant part of the credit crunch by not dropping rates immediately to 2%. This would have allowed banks and financial institutions to borrow at 2% and loan at 5% in order to get losses off the books and lower loan rates. By nibbling at the rate the Fed has missed the boat.
6 Real inflation is truly at 8%+ and will shoot upwards in spite of Government manipulation of the numbers.
7. The employment numbers continue to confound this writer. A lot of good people I know have lost their jobs and have been unemployed for long and continuing periods. Somehow, these numbers of 5.2% do not ring true. The number should be closer to 7%.
8. The illness will take some harsh medicine, but mainly it will take a long time for recovery. By then, the Nation may well be owned by foreign soverign investment fund
9. What to do. Spread assets into ready cash, PMs, high dividend paying stocks protected by earning stream such as( Pfizer PFE). Pay down short term debt.
10. For the first time, citizens must protect against severe recession and hyper inflation. Hard to tell at this time which will hit us first.
11. Remember, while the situation is severe, things are never as bad as the doom dealers say. We will survive and even thrive given good government and time.
No bad news on pic-a-nic baskets or jelly doughnuts? What more could a Bear ask for?
And just in case you needed a laugh today, here's an article from the Motley Fool telling you "Don't you dare do it." (ie don't invest in gold now or ever). For ammunition they cite 2 Merrill Lynch "strategists"...yeah the same company that has lost billions on their poorly chosen sub-prime loans and is basically teetering on bankruptcy. And the same company whose "gold experts" call a local dealer friend of mine routinely for advice on where gold might be going....believe it or not!
Of course Motley Fool cites the 40 year track record of gold and it's poor performance through all the trial and tribulations of the 80's and 90's. Of course they conveniently forgot to mention any part of the 1970's or 1930's in their "anal-ysis." Of course when the Motley's were recommending stocks in the late 1990's as they reached higher and higher levels, do you think they once considered the market overbought?....Nah! They don't call themselves the Motley Fools for nothing.
Well you can just skip to the end of the article to see the man behind the curtian:
<< <i>"If you want to be on the side of returns that smash gold in the long run, then you must allocate toward these types of stocks.
Need some ideas? Consider our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap service, where our team's picks have beaten the market by 22 percentage points on average. Click to get all of our research and recommendations free for 30 days." >>
They gotta sell their small cap newsletter.
Mark Piersall Random Collector www.marksmedals.com
all these whippersnappers were still poopin in their diapers when most of the world adopted fiat.
we have a correction coming that i think is over 30 years in the making of trillions of debt from the intrinsically useless exchange we use today called the USD
value of USD is set by the supply and demand for USD .....and the supply and demand for other goods and services
everything is wacky....Bernanke wants banks to forgive some principal on home debt???? WTF???? i think it's busted.
Yeah, kinda reminds me of those lab rats they tested back in the 80's. They were studying cocaine addiction so they were getting these lab rats to take the coke and this went on for a while until the rats died because they would keep choosing the cocaine instead of the food...bummer. Seems like this is not too unlike the addiction to more and more money, regardless of the consequences. To quote Dirty Harry: "A man's got to know his limitations."
82 year old Richard Russell who lived through the great depression, has some nice remarks on the current metal moves. A simple one page read even for the most steadfast fiat bulls.
The uncollaterized nature of CDS infrastructure is going to be a huge problem, not entirely unlike but dwarfing fiat currencies. A lot of institutions simultaneously playing hot potato and musical chairs will find too many potatoes and too few chairs soon enough when the music stops I fear.
<< <i>82 year old Richard Russell who lived through the great depression, has some nice remarks on the current metal moves. A simple one page read even for the most steadfast fiat bulls.
I get gooseflesh everytime someone refers to silver as a monetary metal.
The last time anyone said it there were vast stockpiles of the stuff and no one wanted it. It's gone now and if people think this is a monetary metal then there will be explosive moves coming.
Eventually these moves would come anyway since silver consumption con- tinues to increase.
Gold will always be a place to store value that is isolated from whatever economy you live in. There are times when that is good for you and times when it is not. I never think of "investing" in gold, I think of parking assets there when I believe our economy is in trouble.
IMHO the dollar will continue to suffer until be get the sub prime crisis, war and economic slowdown corrected. It is going to take a while and depending upon the new president, policies that will support these needed corrections. If we can fix these things, then I would move out of gold, until then I think it is a reasonable place to be for a small percentage of your portfolio.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
your squirrel must be slow - he should have already saved them up from last fall for the winter. He should have been saving them over each winter, and by now have a reallly good stash. (or is he just a noob?)
Ambac announced the failure of a bail out plan to emerge by announcing their plan to publicly offer a financing deal of $1.5 billion. That number is simply too LOW. If the rating agencies do not lower the bond ratings of what are now called Monoline companies they will no longer exist as people put faith into ratings, considering AAA to be a blessing concerning their creditworthiness.
There is more than $1 trillion in bonds out there which are hanging on Monoline company bond ratings. 70% of municipal bond offerings failed last week. The crisis in credit has now moved to municipal bonds.
This industry simply wrote credit derivatives as fast as anyone wanted them without ever asking “What if?”
Who knows, maybe they did ask themselves “What if?” and did not give a damn as the money coming in was mind boggling.
I still go ahead and bend over to pick up one every now and then. You never know, a billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you have...well, I just use them to buy PM's.
Who says the PPT is not lurking these days. Earlier today:
The dollar crashes through the 0.73 barrier for the first time. Oil is over $105 DOW a hairs breadth from falling under 12,000 all that and still......
Silver beat back 1.00 in day trading Gold beat back under $970. But both rebounded right back.
Fun and games with the PPT. But they left the gold shares alone today. HUI at over 500. It's not like them to forget the gold shares.
We await the good new of the February jobs report and other fine BLS findings. Considering that the birth death model front loads the year with negative net jobs, don't expect a rousing number.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I like gold too, but silver is the place to be. >>
Food for thought, but anyone who uses cutesy phrases like "United Snakes" is not to be taken completely seriously. I'm not being a superpatriot or anything, I just think it's dumb.
Bear, I can remember when a million dollars was a lot of money, it is easy to turn a million into a billion when you have a thousand percent inflation, Ha Ha Ha
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund was suspended in Amsterdam trading after creditors forced the sale of some holdings, jeopardizing shareholders' capital.
Carlyle Capital was suspended in the Netherlands at the request of the securities regulator AFM after falling 58 percent yesterday to $5. The stock is halted pending a statement from Carlyle, AFM spokesman Paul van Dijk said. Carlyle sold the shares for $19 in July's initial public offering.”
On another note, gold is beginning to concern me just a little, not because all the fundamentals are not in place for it to keep going higher, but because Larry Kudlow, is now say put all your money into gold and other hard assets?
Oftentimes when on a journey, I find it helpful to look back and examine where I have been. Because in the event that I become turned around in the woods, I will want to know what my trip back will look like.
It can also be helpful to see which road has the least traffic.
While the DOW is seeking a new low and there is still downward pressure with new stock lows these stocks certainly are worth watching. In my opinion, Dow could eventually touch 10,500 as future diminished earning, makes the indexes still richly valued.
PMs should,after some corrections , move higher.
At some point in time, the Treasury Dept will have to make the clear and unambiguous statement ,that the Government stands behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with it's full faith and credit as it does with the FDIC. While they do not wish to do so, an increasingly dour financial market will force them to do so.
A number of fairly large banks may be on the edge of insolvency. No names are being mentioned, but it is not in the National interest for such events to happen. It may be viewed as bailing out the pigs for being stupid, but the ramifications are too dire to contemplate.
I do not expect the economic meltdown to improve for at least 18 months. It will continue to get worse , as long as the Government continues to view the economy as "fundamentally strong" and help is on the way. The economy is not strong and the stated help is too little and too late.
Time is running out for reducing Fed Rates. To jump start the economy, requires a shock reduction and then a hold steady approach. It should be dropped one full point to 2% and then state, that that is all she wrote.
The Government should immediately eliminate taxes on the first 10,000 dollars in bank interest, for a period of two years.
Without interference from the PPT today, you can be sure gold would have jumped over $1000 and silver back over $21. With the terrible jobs report given out today and the FED handing out $$ to its broke banker friends, you'd have thought gold and gold stocks would have rallied rather than fallen. The positive slant is that the PPT expended additional precious ammo to keep this one down today. More PPT challenges next week.
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund was suspended in Amsterdam trading after creditors forced the sale of some holdings, jeopardizing shareholders' capital.
Carlyle Capital was suspended in the Netherlands at the request of the securities regulator AFM after falling 58 percent yesterday to $5. The stock is halted pending a statement from Carlyle, AFM spokesman Paul van Dijk said. Carlyle sold the shares for $19 in July's initial public offering.”
Oh, my goodness. This explains why the Fed is dropping rates. Big. This is Big. "Everybody who's anybody" has a stake in Carlyle.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Carlyle Group is well-connected and just happens to be some of the power behind Barrick gold (ABX). It appears their goal after having sucked away billions from the paper currency pre-game show, is to end up with most of the gold in the more important post game show. Something tells me that someone else is taking the direct hit for this derivatives loss and not the primary powers within Carlyle Group.
A clear and concise article by Nick Laird on his brackets for gold down the road. I like his statement that all manias return to their starting point. In this case he refers to the Dow's starting point of 2000-5000 when it went maniacal due to liquidity injections.
<< <i>In my opinion, Dow could eventually touch 10,500 as future diminished earning, makes the indexes still richly valued. >>
Bear, you're too kind.
I've been saying the DOW will fall to 9,000 by year's end.
The PPT may prop it up for an additional 6-8 months, but they are running out of ammo as RR says.
After that it will drop to around 6,000 in a few more years, say late 2010 to 2011.
That's where it actually belongs anyway.
By then, gold will be at nearly the same level.
Of course oil will be at $250 a barrel by then.
Time to hunker down.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Oftentimes when on a journey, I find it helpful to look back and examine where I have been. Because in the event that I become turned around in the woods, I will want to know what my trip back will look like.
It can also be helpful to see which road has the least traffic.
>>
Jeeesh, did you take out the colored pencils and draw all this squiggly lines? Dang if I can follow it
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund was suspended in Amsterdam trading after creditors forced the sale of some holdings, jeopardizing shareholders' capital.
Carlyle Capital was suspended in the Netherlands at the request of the securities regulator AFM after falling 58 percent yesterday to $5. The stock is halted pending a statement from Carlyle, AFM spokesman Paul van Dijk said. Carlyle sold the shares for $19 in July's initial public offering.”
On another note, gold is beginning to concern me just a little, not because all the fundamentals are not in place for it to keep going higher, but because Larry Kudlow, is now say put all your money into gold and other hard assets? >>
more "good" write-ups about this (Carlyle) in WSJ Friday and W/E edition.... Mr Kudlow might be suggesting tangible assets..not other PM's...i would not "worry" about gold at all. there was some influx of the "stuff" Friday to help keep ALL the economic "meltdown" news from taking it over 1 grand and then beyond...
Pretty soon NONE of the wee things that are done to stabilize gold will have any effect and will be ignored. The FED is worried about lowerng basis points now because of the dollar going further down...and OIL up..the PPT gold influx FRiday...(RR mentioned this below...well above now)...all will be for naught... sleep well.
I was Watching a morning show one of the networks last week they had Suze Orman on they asked her what people should do with their goverment check coming in may she said save it buy a gas card pay down debt and people should invest in oil and gold !! i about fell off the chair she when on to say things are going to get really tough for quite awhile not sure if i liked her saying that it's getting around on the news next thing you know i won't be able to buy any more
It is best to just look at the charts for what they are. Compare the squiggly lines to other squiggly lines and you will soon see many relationships.
BTW----The road less travelled seems to be gold.
For those those who prefer liquidity and ease of transaction, there is a new gold ETF that trades with the symbol GDP. The inverse of that ETF trades with the symbol DZZ. Check them out as they appear to be quite "fun".
<< <i>I was Watching a morning show one of the networks last week they had Suze Orman on they asked her what people should do with their goverment check coming in may she said save it buy a gas card pay down debt and people should invest in oil and gold !! i about fell off the chair she when on to say things are going to get really tough for quite awhile not sure if i liked her saying that it's getting around on the news next thing you know i won't be able to buy any more >>
I know what you mean. I am very surprised that Suze actually said that.... she is one of the group that always says gold is a bad investment, buy more stocks. The fact that she is now recommending purchasing gold (and I've been seeing others of this group starting to recommend also) means the demand for gold will continue as will the price.
First off, let me say I love this country and it's people. However, how did we get so offtrack both economically and morally? The brilliance of our forefathers Jefferson, Franklin, Madison etc put in place a govt. that emphasized above all else individual freedom and responsibility. While we still have many freedoms, including my ability to write this, our rights and property have slowly been eroded by the creation of an elite class of bankers and institutions.
As a parent and for my children's sake I sincerely hope we are not headed for a meltdown. However, so far there does not seem to be a solution to the dire situation our banking and financial system is in. I keep waiting for them to announce their "fix" but instead simply hear Ben tell the banks they need to write down not just interest but also principal (WHAT?), GW dumping money from the sky, and savers literally watching their money vanish while those deep in debt are being given passes at the expense of the responsible.
Our political system no longer represents the people and is no more than a distraction to keep us from what the real power base (Central Banks) are doing and have done. The fact we are in a global economy is bringing home the ills of our fiat system.
Doom and Gloom is the last scenario I want my children and grandchildren to experience so I welcome the great minds of this board to give me optimism for the future based on fact and solutions.
I was Watching a morning show one of the networks last week they had Suze Orman on they asked her what people should do with their goverment check coming in may she said save it buy a gas card pay down debt and people should invest in oil and gold !! i about fell off the chair she when on to say things are going to get really tough for quite awhile not sure if i liked her saying that it's getting around on the news next thing you know i won't be able to buy any more
I was updating my ever-growing spreadsheet for current pricing, and it is nuts! The whole thing is nuts! The last time I bought a batch of Silver Eagles, the basis was $6.69/oz. This time, the basis was $21.70 (I bought high).
Your comment about "not being able to buy any more" is wrong-thinking. If I expected no inflation, it would be crazy to buy Silver Eagles at $21.70. Knowing what I know, a price of $21.70 is no big deal, because the dollar is headed down, still. If a Democrat gets into the White House and if Congress remains in the grip of the Democrats, you will see social welfare programs coming out the wazoo. $21.70 is not cheap, true - but you haven't seen anything yet.
Remember to think about where you are, not where you have been. When inflation is ingrained, your way of thinking simply has to change.
Just my opinion, as usual.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Cohodk, it looks like I am seeing lots of classic "double tops" in several of those precious metals charts. Do you think this portends a significant short term downturn in the precious metals??
TomT-1794
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
Jmski52 that was a joke ! i've been buying metals since 2001 and i don't see stoping anytime soon my point is suze was not a gold buyer at all only stocks It looks to me like gold is starting to catch on and a few are getting the hint and i would expect to see pricing go alot higher alot quicker [i played this game in the 80's but i think it was the pregame] so i agree with you . the only thing that would have me rethink . would be if interest rates take off and i'll look at it at that time jmo
While it is true that history does have provenance, things have changed or are now in the process of changing. I believe we have seen where wealth was concentrated in the hands of a few and that few were seemingly directing policy of the federal government. Robber Barons This is a long article and it does have a point but it is just nice to revisit this period in our financial/economic evolution. That's why they call it history.
We are seeing change on a global scale. Some of this change is magnified because of our new high speed world wide web information exchange in that anything that happens anywhere is accessible by your computer within minutes. Newsers deliver it to you, or sometimes, it is as straight up as Drudge. With the pervasiveness of cell cameras, www, interested individuals, we are connected and we have access to just about anything that can be put into 1's and 0's. We are receiving more and more information, some would call it the information age.
The economic situation between BRIC and the "West" is just one of the many things evolving. Local business is global business, we are becoming more and more connected. It is not a condition of better or worse, it is simply what is happening. Evolution is change, it is a new age that is coming upon us. An age of global populations needing to be fed. As resource acquisition becomes more and more competitive, as those corporations, nations, individuals with where with all become more significant, then we will see different strategies emerge. Chavez in Vene. is an excellent case in point. The economic emergence of the middle class in China and India is another good case in point. The overwhelming dominance of OPEC in energy supply is another case and the list could be expanded. This is evolution and it is happening now and the speed of information just accelerates the process. Is is something to be feared, well, mabye if you are on the wrong side of the Darwininan curve. Is it something to be embraced, well, do you really have a choice? Is is something you must adapt to...yes.
The Boy Scouts are taught...Be Prepared. Should we have PM, well, yes as this is the great equalizer. Should we stash some cash, well, hell yes. Should we keep retail credit debt, well, no; this is part of the evolution. Pay attention, have a plan, be prepared. It's all good, we just have to be a little more diligent now.
Comments
2. Excess in any economy must
eventually be purged at great sacrifice
3. How long will this purge take?
Probable a decade or more.
4. US Government bonds are terribly
overpriced and stand to lose 40% in value
for those who sell before their expiration date.
5. The Fed missed a golden opportunity to correct
a significant part of the credit crunch by not dropping
rates immediately to 2%. This would have allowed banks
and financial institutions to borrow at 2% and loan at 5%
in order to get losses off the books and lower loan rates.
By nibbling at the rate the Fed has missed the boat.
6 Real inflation is truly at 8%+ and will shoot upwards in
spite of Government manipulation of the numbers.
7. The employment numbers continue to confound this writer.
A lot of good people I know have lost their jobs and have been
unemployed for long and continuing periods. Somehow, these numbers
of 5.2% do not ring true. The number should be closer to 7%.
8. The illness will take some harsh medicine, but mainly it will take a long
time for recovery. By then, the Nation may well be owned by foreign soverign
investment fund
9. What to do. Spread assets into ready cash, PMs, high dividend paying stocks protected
by earning stream such as( Pfizer PFE). Pay down short term debt.
10. For the first time, citizens must protect against severe recession and hyper inflation.
Hard to tell at this time which will hit us first.
11. Remember, while the situation is severe, things are never as bad as the doom dealers
say. We will survive and even thrive given good government and time.
Camelot
<< <i>.... given good government and time. >>
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
<< <i>
<< <i>.... given good government and time. >>
We're all gonna die!
This is the most depressing thing in this entire thread.
And just in case you needed a laugh today, here's an article from the Motley Fool telling you "Don't you dare do it." (ie don't invest in gold now or ever). For ammunition they cite 2 Merrill Lynch "strategists"...yeah the same company that has lost billions on their poorly chosen sub-prime loans and is basically teetering on bankruptcy. And the same company whose "gold experts" call a local dealer friend of mine routinely for advice on where gold might be going....believe it or not!
Of course Motley Fool cites the 40 year track record of gold and it's poor performance through all the trial and tribulations of the 80's and 90's. Of course they conveniently forgot to mention any part of the 1970's or 1930's in their "anal-ysis." Of course when the Motley's were recommending stocks in the late 1990's as they reached higher and higher levels, do you think they once considered the market overbought?....Nah! They don't call themselves the Motley Fools for nothing.
You are about to make a bad investment
If you want a good laugh. Take a read.
roadrunner
<< <i>"If you want to be on the side of returns that smash gold in the long run, then you must allocate toward these types of stocks.
Need some ideas? Consider our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap service, where our team's picks have beaten the market by 22 percentage points on average. Click to get all of our research and recommendations free for 30 days." >>
They gotta sell their small cap newsletter.
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
we have a correction coming that i think is over 30 years in the making of trillions of debt from the intrinsically useless exchange we use today called the USD
value of USD is set by the supply and demand for USD .....and the supply and demand for other goods and services
everything is wacky....Bernanke wants banks to forgive some principal on home debt???? WTF???? i think it's busted.
Richard Russell - a concise summation on the stealth PM's market
roadrunner
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>82 year old Richard Russell who lived through the great depression, has some nice remarks on the current metal moves. A simple one page read even for the most steadfast fiat bulls.
Richard Russell - a concise summation on the stealth PM's market
roadrunner >>
I get gooseflesh everytime someone refers to silver as a monetary metal.
The last time anyone said it there were vast stockpiles of the stuff and no
one wanted it. It's gone now and if people think this is a monetary metal
then there will be explosive moves coming.
Eventually these moves would come anyway since silver consumption con-
tinues to increase.
IMHO the dollar will continue to suffer until be get the sub prime crisis, war and economic slowdown corrected. It is going to take a while and depending upon the new president, policies that will support these needed corrections. If we can fix these things, then I would move out of gold, until then I think it is a reasonable place to be for a small percentage of your portfolio.
He told me that to prepare for economic turbulence he
is loading up on acorns
Camelot
Dear Friends,
Ambac announced the failure of a bail out plan to emerge by announcing their plan to publicly offer a financing deal of $1.5 billion. That number is simply too LOW. If the rating agencies do not lower the bond ratings of what are now called Monoline companies they will no longer exist as people put faith into ratings, considering AAA to be a blessing concerning their creditworthiness.
There is more than $1 trillion in bonds out there which are hanging on Monoline company bond ratings. 70% of municipal bond offerings failed last week. The crisis in credit has now moved to municipal bonds.
This industry simply wrote credit derivatives as fast as anyone wanted them without ever asking “What if?”
Who knows, maybe they did ask themselves “What if?” and did not give a damn as the money coming in was mind boggling.
THIS IS IT!
a billion dollars was considered a
lot of money. How times have changed.
Camelot
<< <i>What is a CDS ??? >>
Credit Default Swap, a big derivatives mess.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>THIS IS IT! >>
??? This is what ???
<< <i>
<< <i>THIS IS IT! >>
??? This is what ??? >>
Gold heading for the 4th angle which is $1650 as he advised in 2002. He's been right on so far.
Jim Sinclair's website.
pick up a billion from the ground. anymore
Camelot
pick up a billion from the ground"
I still go ahead and bend over to pick up one every now and then. You never know, a billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you have...well, I just use them to buy PM's.
A county going bankrupt?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The dollar crashes through the 0.73 barrier for the first time.
Oil is over $105
DOW a hairs breadth from falling under 12,000
all that and still......
Silver beat back 1.00 in day trading
Gold beat back under $970.
But both rebounded right back.
We await the good new of the February jobs report and other fine BLS findings. Considering that the birth death model front loads the year with negative net jobs, don't expect a rousing number.
Birth Death Model
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And this is why I'm so bullish on it.
I like gold too, but silver is the place to be.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Interesting read on Silver.
And this is why I'm so bullish on it.
I like gold too, but silver is the place to be. >>
Food for thought, but anyone who uses cutesy phrases like "United Snakes" is not to be taken completely seriously. I'm not being a superpatriot or anything, I just think it's dumb.
“The sad thing is, in the past,
a billion dollars was considered a
lot of money. How times have changed.”
Bear, I can remember when a million dollars was a lot of money, it is easy to turn a million into a billion when you have a thousand percent inflation, Ha Ha Ha
BYE BYE
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund was suspended in Amsterdam trading after creditors forced the sale of some holdings, jeopardizing shareholders' capital.
Carlyle Capital was suspended in the Netherlands at the request of the securities regulator AFM after falling 58 percent yesterday to $5. The stock is halted pending a statement from Carlyle, AFM spokesman Paul van Dijk said. Carlyle sold the shares for $19 in July's initial public offering.”
On another note, gold is beginning to concern me just a little, not because all the fundamentals are not in place for it to keep going higher, but because Larry Kudlow, is now say put all your money into gold and other hard assets?
It can also be helpful to see which road has the least traffic.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
turning interesting. This is in the theory of
Dogs of the Dow (modified).
Pfizer (PFE)......6.0 %
Con E (ED) ......5.75%
B of A (BAC).....7.0%
While the DOW is seeking a new low and
there is still downward pressure with new
stock lows these stocks certainly are worth watching.
In my opinion, Dow could eventually touch 10,500 as
future diminished earning, makes the indexes still richly
valued.
PMs should,after some corrections , move higher.
At some point in time, the Treasury Dept will have to
make the clear and unambiguous statement ,that the Government
stands behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with it's full faith and credit
as it does with the FDIC. While they do not wish to do so, an increasingly
dour financial market will force them to do so.
A number of fairly large banks may be on the edge of insolvency. No names
are being mentioned, but it is not in the National interest for such events to
happen. It may be viewed as bailing out the pigs for being stupid, but the ramifications
are too dire to contemplate.
I do not expect the economic meltdown to improve for at least 18 months. It
will continue to get worse , as long as the Government continues to view the
economy as "fundamentally strong" and help is on the way. The economy is
not strong and the stated help is too little and too late.
Time is running out for reducing Fed Rates. To jump start the economy, requires a shock
reduction and then a hold steady approach. It should be dropped one full point to 2% and
then state, that that is all she wrote.
The Government should immediately eliminate taxes on the first 10,000 dollars in bank
interest, for a period of two years.
Camelot
roadrunner
Carlyle Capital was suspended in the Netherlands at the request of the securities regulator AFM after falling 58 percent yesterday to $5. The stock is halted pending a statement from Carlyle, AFM spokesman Paul van Dijk said. Carlyle sold the shares for $19 in July's initial public offering.”
Oh, my goodness. This explains why the Fed is dropping rates. Big. This is Big. "Everybody who's anybody" has a stake in Carlyle.
I knew it would happen.
Something tells me that someone else is taking the direct hit for this derivatives loss and not the primary powers within Carlyle Group.
Charting of Dow/gold ratio and support for $2000-$5000 gold channel
A clear and concise article by Nick Laird on his brackets for gold down the road. I like his statement that all manias return to their starting point. In this case he refers to the Dow's starting point of
2000-5000 when it went maniacal due to liquidity injections.
roadrunner
<< <i>In my opinion, Dow could eventually touch 10,500 as
future diminished earning, makes the indexes still richly
valued. >>
Bear, you're too kind.
I've been saying the DOW will fall to 9,000 by year's end.
The PPT may prop it up for an additional 6-8 months, but they are running out of ammo as RR says.
After that it will drop to around 6,000 in a few more years, say late 2010 to 2011.
That's where it actually belongs anyway.
By then, gold will be at nearly the same level.
Of course oil will be at $250 a barrel by then.
Time to hunker down.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Oftentimes when on a journey, I find it helpful to look back and examine where I have been. Because in the event that I become turned around in the woods, I will want to know what my trip back will look like.
It can also be helpful to see which road has the least traffic.
Jeeesh, did you take out the colored pencils and draw all this squiggly lines? Dang if I can follow it
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
were someones EKG.
Camelot
<< <i>BYE BYE
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund was suspended in Amsterdam trading after creditors forced the sale of some holdings, jeopardizing shareholders' capital.
Carlyle Capital was suspended in the Netherlands at the request of the securities regulator AFM after falling 58 percent yesterday to $5. The stock is halted pending a statement from Carlyle, AFM spokesman Paul van Dijk said. Carlyle sold the shares for $19 in July's initial public offering.”
On another note, gold is beginning to concern me just a little, not because all the fundamentals are not in place for it to keep going higher, but because Larry Kudlow, is now say put all your money into gold and other hard assets? >>
more "good" write-ups about this (Carlyle) in WSJ Friday and W/E edition....
Mr Kudlow might be suggesting tangible assets..not other PM's...i would not "worry" about gold at all. there was some influx of the "stuff" Friday to help keep ALL the economic "meltdown" news from taking it over 1 grand and then beyond...
Pretty soon NONE of the wee things that are done to stabilize gold will have any effect and will be ignored. The FED is worried about lowerng basis points now because of the dollar going further down...and OIL up..the PPT gold influx FRiday...(RR mentioned this below...well above now)...all will be for naught... sleep well.
last week they had Suze Orman on they asked her
what people should do with their goverment check coming in may
she said save it buy a gas card pay down debt
and people should invest in oil and gold !! i about fell off the chair
she when on to say things are going to get really tough for quite awhile
not sure if i liked her saying that it's getting around on the news
next thing you know i won't be able to buy any more
It is best to just look at the charts for what they are. Compare the squiggly lines to other squiggly lines and you will soon see many relationships.
BTW----The road less travelled seems to be gold.
For those those who prefer liquidity and ease of transaction, there is a new gold ETF that trades with the symbol GDP. The inverse of that ETF trades with the symbol DZZ. Check them out as they appear to be quite "fun".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I was Watching a morning show one of the networks
last week they had Suze Orman on they asked her
what people should do with their goverment check coming in may
she said save it buy a gas card pay down debt
and people should invest in oil and gold !! i about fell off the chair
she when on to say things are going to get really tough for quite awhile
not sure if i liked her saying that it's getting around on the news
next thing you know i won't be able to buy any more >>
I know what you mean. I am very surprised that Suze actually said that.... she is one of the group that always says gold is a bad investment, buy more stocks. The fact that she is now recommending purchasing gold (and I've been seeing others of this group starting to recommend also) means the demand for gold will continue as will the price.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-466210540567002553&q=Federal+reserve
As a parent and for my children's sake I sincerely hope we are not headed for a meltdown. However, so far there does not seem to be a solution to the dire situation our banking and financial system is in. I keep waiting for them to announce their "fix" but instead simply hear Ben tell the banks they need to write down not just interest but also principal (WHAT?), GW dumping money from the sky, and savers literally watching their money vanish while those deep in debt are being given passes at the expense of the responsible.
Our political system no longer represents the people and is no more than a distraction to keep us from what the real power base (Central Banks) are doing and have done. The fact we are in a global economy is bringing home the ills of our fiat system.
Doom and Gloom is the last scenario I want my children and grandchildren to experience so I welcome the great minds of this board to give me optimism for the future based on fact and solutions.
<< <i>I welcome the great minds of this board to give me optimism for the future based on fact and solutions. >>
last week they had Suze Orman on they asked her
what people should do with their goverment check coming in may
she said save it buy a gas card pay down debt
and people should invest in oil and gold !! i about fell off the chair
she when on to say things are going to get really tough for quite awhile
not sure if i liked her saying that it's getting around on the news
next thing you know i won't be able to buy any more
I was updating my ever-growing spreadsheet for current pricing, and it is nuts! The whole thing is nuts! The last time I bought a batch of Silver Eagles, the basis was $6.69/oz. This time, the basis was $21.70 (I bought high).
Your comment about "not being able to buy any more" is wrong-thinking. If I expected no inflation, it would be crazy to buy Silver Eagles at $21.70. Knowing what I know, a price of $21.70 is no big deal, because the dollar is headed down, still. If a Democrat gets into the White House and if Congress remains in the grip of the Democrats, you will see social welfare programs coming out the wazoo. $21.70 is not cheap, true - but you haven't seen anything yet.
Remember to think about where you are, not where you have been. When inflation is ingrained, your way of thinking simply has to change.
Just my opinion, as usual.
I knew it would happen.
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
that was a joke ! i've been buying metals since 2001 and i don't see stoping anytime soon
my point is suze was not a gold buyer at all only stocks
It looks to me like gold is starting to catch on and a few are getting the hint and i would expect
to see pricing go alot higher alot quicker [i played this game in the 80's but i think it was the pregame]
so i agree with you . the only thing that would have me rethink . would be if interest rates take off
and i'll look at it at that time
jmo
We are seeing change on a global scale. Some of this change is magnified because of our new high speed world wide web information exchange in that anything that happens anywhere is accessible by your computer within minutes. Newsers deliver it to you, or sometimes, it is as straight up as Drudge. With the pervasiveness of cell cameras, www, interested individuals, we are connected and we have access to just about anything that can be put into 1's and 0's. We are receiving more and more information, some would call it the information age.
The economic situation between BRIC and the "West" is just one of the many things evolving. Local business is global business, we are becoming more and more connected. It is not a condition of better or worse, it is simply what is happening. Evolution is change, it is a new age that is coming upon us. An age of global populations needing to be fed. As resource acquisition becomes more and more competitive, as those corporations, nations, individuals with where with all become more significant, then we will see different strategies emerge. Chavez in Vene. is an excellent case in point. The economic emergence of the middle class in China and India is another good case in point. The overwhelming dominance of OPEC in energy supply is another case and the list could be expanded. This is evolution and it is happening now and the speed of information just accelerates the process. Is is something to be feared, well, mabye if you are on the wrong side of the Darwininan curve. Is it something to be embraced, well, do you really have a choice? Is is something you must adapt to...yes.
The Boy Scouts are taught...Be Prepared. Should we have PM, well, yes as this is the great equalizer. Should we stash some cash, well, hell yes. Should we keep retail credit debt, well, no; this is part of the evolution. Pay attention, have a plan, be prepared. It's all good, we just have to be a little more diligent now.
For entertainment purposes only.