<< <i>Yee haa! Before long it'll be time to pick off some profits. Maybe in time for a free spring fishing trip! >>
I think you'll regret that expensive trip for years to come.
This is the perfect time to go long.
This PM bull is just now picking up steam.
I've been long for may years now and other than a bit of real estate, my eggs are in the PM basket.
Don't get off now, in a few more years, you can retire and fish everyday.
This isn't like 1980, it's not artificial and the world market is ever growing for silver and gold. Demand outstrips supply and has for years.
Now supply is far less than it was just last year and there is no end in sight for that, it could well be years, if ever.
A silver mine can take 8 years to go online, a gold mine takes 10 years or more. Silver is a surface metal, the easy pickings are long gone and used up.
This beast isn't going to collapse, in fact it's growing like a baby dinosaur and it has yet to really roar.
Silver at $35 in 2009 is in the cards and gold at $1650 by year's end wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Folks who bail now are going to regret it for a long, long time.
In three years or so, we'll be looking back and remembering when silver was only $100 an ounce and gold was only $3500
Nobody gets off the train when it's just beginning to build up steam and picking up real speed.
We ain't seen nothing yet!!
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Deadhorse, I read all your posts and a few other peoples with great interest. I am very bullish on silver and gold but you seem to be so sure, wish I had your confidence. I hope you are right with your predictions.
<< <i>I guess another way of saying this is that people are at last acknowledging Emperor Dollar has no clothes.
Rare coins is going to look like a smart hobby over time, along with owning PMs. >>
Maybe, maybe not. Gold and silver have thousands of years of history of being money in one way or another.
I'm not convinced numismatic premiums are *necessarily* as immutable as PMs in terms of being a dependable store of wealth. Most other collectibles have cycles where they fall hard after a crash and don't recover. Historically coins have always recovered when some other collectibles never did, but I'm not convinced that mean it can't happen.
Having said that, I like the prospects of rare coins better than just about any other collectible with the possible exception of fine art.
Deadhorse, I read all your posts and a few other peoples with great interest. I am very bullish on silver and gold but you seem to be so sure, wish I had your confidence. I hope you are right with your predictions.
I agree with Deadhorse completely, and for various reasons. There is no end in sight to the devaluation of the dollar. So what?
I see NO changes in governmental policy that give me any reason to think otherwise. If that's not enough to leave you shaking in your boots, then you aren't paying attention. Why should it matter?
Inflation reporting has mutated to the point where gasoline and food prices aren't considered representative of the "basket of goods & services" that are used to report inflation. Money supply (M1, M2 and M3) are not used to report inflation. Why not?
If actual inflation was reported, then the government would have to pay more in social security, interest payments, veteran's benefits and a host of other obligations that are tied to the inflation index. So who gets hurt?
If banks need to pump up their loan business and the Fed wants to accomodate the banks by printing more money and lowering lending standards so that more unqualified people (people who are unlikely to repay a loan) can buy houses, so what?
What do all of these scenarios have in common? They are intellectually AND ethically dishonest. With gold, silver and/or platinum, the government, bankers, the Fed, and the Wall Street brokers cannot get into your pants and steal every red cent you own. Pity. Their game might be over, or at least going into overtime.
There will be panic and alot of blame being passed around before it's over. Be sure to make contingency plans for your money and arrangements to keep it safe. Just my opinion, of course.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Deadhorse, I read all your posts and a few other peoples with great interest. I am very bullish on silver and gold but you seem to be so sure, wish I had your confidence. I hope you are right with your predictions. >>
Thanks.
My confidence is based on years of study and I continue to do so. I probably spent over 1,000 hours of study before I ever put anything into PMs back in 2001.
I had heard a lot, I remembered '79-'80. I've been collecting coins since I was a small child. But I didn't really understand silver and gold as well as I thought I did. Now, after many years of active buying and selling, I'd like to think I've got a good handle on it.
Older posters will remember I was the one who mortgaged my paid off home, plus took out loans and put it all into silver when we had crash down into the mid $4 range in April-May of 2003 I knew it couldn't stay there and 8 months later I sold out at $8+. I paid off the house again, paid the taxes, replaced my original silver plus quite a bit more on the last big dip in May of '04 at around $5.50 and came out over 100K to the good. That eventually went back into PMs as well. In 2005 I sold that house, used a portion of my PM holdings and bought a home that I never dreamed that I could ever own. Plus my mortgage is less than a nice apartment goes for in Houston today.
The real killer is the property taxes. I do my own escrow.
It's easy to say now, but back in 2002 I had determined that the third quarter 2007 was going to be the start of the breakout. I'd say I was pretty darn close.
Obviously, I'm cost averaged at a very low price overall today. I'm saying 2009 will be a huge year and there will be no floor dropping out. People will accept that those are the real market prices and then shortages will continue to build. By 2011 I think we'll be at a level where supply/usage will achieve some sort of parity/equilibrium with prices reflecting that. Some usage will be down due to the price. Not industrial, but in terms of jewelry and such. It could occur as early as 2010 as things are a bit crazy in the world these days. A nuclear exchange in the Middle East will send prices to the sky earlier than they would normally get there.
The prices will shock people looking at it from today's perspective, but that is where we will be and that is the time frame I'm looking at for finally selling out.
What worries me most is who will be President and what the tax rates will be at that point.
I'll deal with that when the time comes and creative minds can come up with creative solutions. I've already incorporated and established a track record of buying and selling, so for me, PMs are just inventory and not investments to be taxed like capital gains.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I hope that many who have come hear to read this thread through the years have done some good with some of our old time, conservative, advice here!
That said, this is no time to think that the markets are going to top out quickly. The public and the regular media are just waking up to the facts we have been preaching here for years.
All these little socialists in Washington, which is practically everyone there now, does not have your financial interest at heart. As we have said from the beginning, they were lying about inflation several years ago, and they are lying now. They are printing money as fast as the facilities can print it, and unfortunately the only ones being fooled by this are the regular common un-informed folks.
As long as the Fed drops the rates, and continues to print money, dumping it into the economy, we are going to have more and more inflation, and all the metals, oil, food, and most other commodities are going to keep going UP.
Please keep in mind that adjusted for inflation we could see $40 plus silver and $2,300 gold, and most likely will see $150 oil within two years.
Not to many days from now we are going to see $1,000 gold and all the Wall Street guys will be saying, “well that’s it, the bull run is over”, when that day comes ask yourself, just exactly what changed today?
Keep paying off debt, and DO NOT sell your hard assets.
I can a test to deadhorse's statement's and i pm'ed him on the side at that time and i think he should can his handle to deadon Great calls Deadhorse Thanks
Deadhorse, I read all your posts and a few other peoples with great interest. I am very bullish on silver and gold but you seem to be so sure, wish I had your confidence. I hope you are right with your predictions
I haven't read everyone's post so I hope I'm not repeating someone's post,
but I can summarize why I am so convinced PMs have still got a long way to go,
and that is because true inflation is "the excess printing of money". Forget about prices. Where there is massive printing of paper currency you will definitely get huge amounts of inflation. It may not be immediate, but eventually it will show up.
And one, if not the only way to protect yourself, is transferring your paper wealth (US dollars) into a real asset that will strongly appreciate in times of inflation (Precious Metals).
There are many other reasons why I am confident (and just about 100% invested in PM's) but this is the main one.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
Besides all the reasons mentioned over the years to buy PM's, the thing that seals it for me is that I cannot find one single positive point in our economy/financial sector today. Not one single positive sign. It's really as simple as that. While many have tried to spin unemployment as low, or growth as solid, or jobs growth as acceptable, or a "strong" US Dollar policy, or even that inflation is low. It's all skewed by phony numbers.
This is about the point that Pharmer would come in and quote GDP or CPI numbers to prove that we have strong growth and low inflation. See, no inflation here...and Bush even said so on TV.....plus Bernanke says that we don't have stagflation, but if it starts coming he'll take action against it. Unfortunately the latest GDP figure of +.6% is sort of hard to blow off. No worries, it will somehow get boosted next time to reassure all the sheeple that all is well after all.
The prices will shock people looking at it from today's perspective, but that is where we will be and that is the time frame I'm looking at for finally selling out What do you mean "selling out? Is that the end of the line for you in PM's or do you think thats the end of the line for PM's period. Don't you think anyone should hold some PM's all the time no matter what the price is just for a worst case senario? In other words I guess what I'm asking is what do you think the long term (10-20 years) is for PM's or will you just look at the state of affairs when the time comes.
A note about the SLV - ETF. Everything I've read indicates that they hold the actual silver. In time of course, this could change. But for now - does anyone have any evidence that the ETF is not purchasing and storing actual silver bullion?
I hold the ETF, but only because I see no better candidate to serve as a major component in my IRAs at this time - including a Treasury Bill Fund, a stock index fund and any kind of foreign stock fund. If I could pull the money out to buy bullion without a massive penalty, I would.
So, again my question - is there any evidence that SLV isn't holding real bullion?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
What do you mean "selling out? Is that the end of the line for you in PM's or do you think thats the end of the line for PM's period. Don't you think anyone should hold some PM's all the time no matter what the price is just for a worst case senario? In other words I guess what I'm asking is what do you think the long term (10-20 years) is for PM's or will you just look at the state of affairs when the time comes.
Good question. roadrunner? Your thoughts?
I've felt that bullion offers real security, ever since the late '70s. I didn't hold a large position during the '80s, but my antenna were always up. In 1998, I bought back in and kept on buying. The reason? No better alternatives for new money.
When a better alternative than hard money presents itself, I'll re-evaluate. That process never stops.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"The prices will shock people looking at it from today's perspective, but that is where we will be and that is the time frame I'm looking at for finally selling out." What do you mean "selling out"? Is this the end of PM's for you or you think thats the end of PM's run? Shouldn't people hold some PM's all the time just in case of a worst case senario? Whats the long term for PM's ( 10 to 20) years?
What do you mean "selling out? Is that the end of the line for you in PM's or do you think thats the end of the line for PM's period. Don't you think anyone should hold some PM's all the time no matter what the price is just for a worst case senario? In other words I guess what I'm asking is what do you think the long term (10-20 years) is for PM's or will you just look at the state of affairs when the time comes.
While it makes sense to hold some PM's at all times imo, I didn't do that prior to 2002 as I was in the same boat as most everyone else thinking that gold was a barbarous relic that generally performed poorly. We're in different times today. I think going forward that gold will play a continual role as "money" in portfolios. This question is no different than asking people about holding solid quality growth stocks long term (5-30 yrs). While that is considered a proper thing to do (even as stocks take beatings year after year) staying invested in any portion of gold long term will probably never catch on.
It will be hard to change people's expectations of stocks who invested in the 1982-2006 era. In their minds stocks only go up or at worst generally stay the same (the Nasdaq is conveniently forgotten). Likewise their expectations of gold (even after the current 7 yrs of a bull market) will always be based on 1980-2001.
<< <i>A note about the SLV - ETF. Everything I've read indicates that they hold the actual silver. In time of course, this could change. But for now - does anyone have any evidence that the ETF is not purchasing and storing actual silver bullion?
I hold the ETF, but only because I see no better candidate to serve as a major component in my IRAs at this time - including a Treasury Bill Fund, a stock index fund and any kind of foreign stock fund. If I could pull the money out to buy bullion without a massive penalty, I would.
So, again my question - is there any evidence that SLV isn't holding real bullion? >>
When you read the prospectus, read very carefully. The SLV-ETF itself DOES NOT store the silver themselves.... they do not own any storage facilities, etc. So guess what.... that is contracted out to a list of other institutions to 'store' the silver. When you look up the list of these institutions, you will see they are many of the major players-financial organizations. The ETF has the 'guarantees' that the institutions have the silver (well, a paper audit that says they have the silver).... but do they REALLY? How many other paper contracts are involved with the silver they have on hand? Have they lent it out..... and in turn have a piece of paper that they now still use to say they actually have the silver (since it is owed to them)??
Was it Bear Stearns that just had a lawsuit because they did not have the actual silver on hand that they were pretending to? Individuals were purchasing silver from them, and on top of that were paying them to store it! And all along the company did not physically have the silver on hand!! During the lawsuit, they said they did nothing wrong at all, and that this practice was common in the industry.......
The ETF is great for jumping in and out and trying to make a quick profit, etc. But use you own judgement. I personally think there could be some very disappointed 'owners' of silver in the future......
Ya know, I was just thinkin' and reflecting on the phenomenon of governmental or corporate entities (in particular, financial institutions) trying to glomb on to piles of money, where ever it is. For example, social security fund...robbed long ago so the governmental entities got that money. Fund accounts held at large financial institutions...some articles recently about funds not paying out have been in the news and even a fund that was to buy metal for clients and charge them a storage fee for holding the metal, well, they didn't buy the metal but charged the account holders for the storage anyway (hee hee).
It seems that where ever there are concentrations of money such as 401 K's, IRA's, fund accounts, social security, that there are an equal movement by government and financial institutions to get control of that money or use it as a source of fees and taxes (sort of like making money on your money). Look at the lending industry...grabbed a bunch of good will on their balance sheets from no doc loans and put it together and sold it to other greed mongers and there you have it. So the whole food chain got fed, the writers, the agents, the funders, the packagers, everybody along the whole food chain (don't forget taxes and fees that were generated to our fed, state, local govt's). So, every body made a wad of buks and the financial folk were sucking up these innocent, hapless "citizens" and misguided opportunists like a vacuum cleaner stuck on "deep pile" mode. Look at your IRA or 401K, penalties if you take it out too soon, taxes when you do, just a line of people dependent on your 401K an entire food chain making a living on your money concentration. Even a CD, if you keep it for full term you still get to pay taxes on the interest earned by the money the bank was using to make interest off of borrowers so the fed/state gets paid when you do and the bank makes their money while the CD is working. Every body making money on your money. So, now that you realize that you are just on the lower part of a food chain that feeds the world, where does that leave ya? Damn good argument for PM's.
Great post Tincup. I agree that the silver and gold ETF's may best thought of as fuel for the actions of the silver and gold cartels. If they need say 10 tons in gold to dump on the market to soothe a dollar drop they know just where to get it. Barclay's is the manager of the gold ETF and it's no secret they are beholden to some of the other bigger brokerages that tend to play a big role in the PM shorts and longs. One call from the PPT to Goldman, then to Barclay's and they have all the physical bullion they need to make a market adjustment.
I trust Barclay's about as much as I would trust Goldman, the PPT or the FED. Barclay's has the same problem with sub-prime and other risks. So when they are hurting who do you think will help bail them out? And then who will be asking for return favors down the road?
If it is ever shown that the ETF's don't have the metal they claim to it will be a rush to the exits. Your investment in metals will then become a worthless pile of paper. Trailing stops and other gimmicks won't bail you out. Everyone will be trying to get out instantaneously. Get physical!
<< <i>The prices will shock people looking at it from today's perspective, but that is where we will be and that is the time frame I'm looking at for finally selling out What do you mean "selling out? Is that the end of the line for you in PM's or do you think thats the end of the line for PM's period. Don't you think anyone should hold some PM's all the time no matter what the price is just for a worst case senario? In other words I guess what I'm asking is what do you think the long term (10-20 years) is for PM's or will you just look at the state of affairs when the time comes. >>
I have always intended to retire early and buy or build a small ranch over in the lush Texas Hill Country.
By sell out, I do mean sell out, as in rid myself of the tidy hoard that I have accumulated. I'm sure I'll keep some just as insurance, but even 20% would support the lifestyle I have in mind for the rest of my life.
One has to consider many factors and while financial security is the top most for many people, myself included, there is more to life than counting up your $$.
None of us are going to live forever, though I believe I've got many decades to go. It is my desire to leave the big city and the pressing work schedule to find a simpler life. I think we are going to reach a point where the metals market is going to level off. That doesn't mean metals won't continue to rise, just not at the incredible levels that we are seeing today and will continue to see for the next 4 years or so. At least that's what my studies tell me.
Metals will still be a great hedge against inflation and may well continue to be a solid investment, but I doubt we will see the average of 50% increases annually as we have for some time now.
Besides, the value of a fair sized amount of ranch land and a home that is off the grid should be a decent investment in itself.
It's still going to be years before we reach that point, but when the time comes, I'm getting out while the getting is good. Kicking back with a nice cool drink on a west facing porch and watching the sunsets along with financial security is my goal. Personally I love to grow things, both plants and animals. Many years ago, right after college, I owned a Truck Farm and I can say that that was one of the most enjoyable times in my life. There's nothing better than a freshly laid egg and add that to bacon from your own livestock, well that can't be beat. Most people have no idea of the difference between a fresh egg and store bought.
Those that don't are missing out on a rare treat. For me, that lifestyle is my true goal and it's what has driven me to push so hard for so many years with both my jobs and precious metals. I knew my goal years ago, but I wasn't wealthy enough to reach that. My studies on growing my nest egg drove me towards PMs as a solid way to reach what I really wanted out of life. Now that I've spent so many years in PM investments, I've come to realize that that choice was the only way to do it and I've reaped benefits that I would have never thought possible 10 years ago. Call it dumb luck, call it hard work and much study, I actually think it's a bit of both, but either way the results have been the same.
I'm not going to talk about net worth, but consider this; when I started in precious metals, I had a nest egg of $15,000 and a home worth around $160K that was very nearly paid off, only a year of so to go on the mortgage. I drove a 6 year old pick up that was paid for and that was it. Today, I could retire comfortably, but in this big city. I have a bevy of sports cars including a 911 Carrera, all paid off free and clear, and a home I never dreamed I could ever own. I also have a substantial position in PMs that is only going to increase by 500-700% in the next 4 years. Oh yeah, I still have that same pick up truck.
Precious metals have been very good to me, but it also takes work and buying and selling. My real point is tht PMs are a great investment and are only going to get better. But let's be realistic, all bull runs come to an end. PMs will still be great stores of wealth and will continue to increase in value, but in time it will level off somewhat. It's at that point that I cash out and call it a career. Of course, running a ranch isn't exactly sitting back in a rocking chair, but it will be all joy for me. I want to do that while I am young enough to really enjoy it. Working in this big city was exciting for a while, but I've spent the vast majority of my life here. I think everyone has to balance their goals and consider their age in order to find their compass point.
Hopefully, I've made most of the right decisions leading towards that place. Four more years or so ought to be the point at which PMs find their balance , but with prices that will amaze from today's perspective and that will fit in just right with my time frame for what I want to do with the rest of my life.
Time will tell.
NO, I am not telling everyone to get out of PMs in 3-4 years at all. It's just that for me, I think that will be the way to go. For younger people, The PM road will still offer great opportunities, but don't expect these meteoric rises forever. It doesn't work that way. Today, this is the place to be. Who can say where we will be in another 4-5 years? If things go right, I'll be working my butt off running a ranch and loving every minute of it. Even if I fail at every opportunity to make income from the ranch, I'll still have the financial backing to live comfortably the rest of my life on my own little paradise.
However, there is still a lot of work to do and more fun in PMs for several more years.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
" have always intended to retire early and buy or build a small ranch over in the lush Texas Hill Country. "...........
" It's still going to be years before we reach that point, but when the time comes, I'm getting out while the getting is good. Kicking back with a nice cool drink on a west facing porch and watching the sunsets along with financial security is my goal. Personally I love to grow things, both plants and animals. Many years ago, right after college, I owned a Truck Farm and I can say that that was one of the most enjoyable times in my life. There's nothing better than a freshly laid egg and add that to bacon from your own livestock, well that can't be beat. Most people have no idea of the difference between a fresh egg and store bought. "
Hey, you will have easy access to cheap labor for that truck farm!! Some of those illegal aliens running past your front porch just might stop and help you out!!
Follow the dream.... you are right.... there is more to life than just counting up the dollars...
<< <i>A note about the SLV - ETF. Everything I've read indicates that they hold the actual silver. In time of course, this could change. But for now - does anyone have any evidence that the ETF is not purchasing and storing actual silver bullion?
I hold the ETF, but only because I see no better candidate to serve as a major component in my IRAs at this time - including a Treasury Bill Fund, a stock index fund and any kind of foreign stock fund. If I could pull the money out to buy bullion without a massive penalty, I would.
So, again my question - is there any evidence that SLV isn't holding real bullion? >>
From my research, I've come to believe that while it was their intent to actually own the physical silver as backing, they simply couldn't acquire that much. I remember it drove prices up for a while when they were taking some of it off the market.
I have come to believe that they only hold between 5 and 10% of the actual silver for the amount they have sold on paper. They stopped buying quite some time ago when it became clear that there simply just wasn't that much available.
I look at them just like I do any other group that sells paper metal.
IOW, I want nothing to do with them.
Good luck, but don't be shocked if the time comes and you find out that all you've got is some very expensive paper.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Hey, you will have easy access to cheap labor for that truck farm!! Some of those illegal aliens running past your front porch just might stop and help you out!!
Follow the dream.... you are right.... there is more to life than just counting up the dollars... >>
Nah!! That will be what I call target practice.
No, I'm not kidding. This is Texas, we have much different laws down here.
Anybody encroaches on your property without your permission, you have the right to shot them.
The illegal invasion will stop at my property line.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>It seems that where ever there are concentrations of money such as 401 K's, IRA's, fund accounts, social security, that there are an equal movement by government and financial institutions to get control of that money or use it as a source of fees and taxes (sort of like making money on your money). Look at the lending industry...grabbed a bunch of good will on their balance sheets from no doc loans and put it together and sold it to other greed mongers and there you have it. So the whole food chain got fed, the writers, the agents, the funders, the packagers, everybody along the whole food chain (don't forget taxes and fees that were generated to our fed, state, local govt's). So, every body made a wad of buks and the financial folk were sucking up these innocent, hapless "citizens" and misguided opportunists like a vacuum cleaner stuck on "deep pile" mode. Look at your IRA or 401K, penalties if you take it out too soon, taxes when you do, just a line of people dependent on your 401K an entire food chain making a living on your money concentration. Even a CD, if you keep it for full term you still get to pay taxes on the interest earned by the money the bank was using to make interest off of borrowers so the fed/state gets paid when you do and the bank makes their money while the CD is working. Every body making money on your money. So, now that you realize that you are just on the lower part of a food chain that feeds the world, where does that leave ya? Damn good argument for PM's. >>
It could also be a good argument for more government oversight and regulation of financial industries, but those ideas are out of favor right now. It seems people want to relive the lack of regulation and laissez-faire attitude that caused the excesses and crimes of the Gilded Age (see any of Upton Sinclair's books, among many others, for details), and eventually the Great Depression.
People who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it. Somebody famous said that....
let's be realistic, all bull runs come to an end. PMs will still be great stores of wealth and will continue to increase in value, but in time it will level off somewhat. It's at that point that I cash out and call it a career.
The problem is that bull markets rarely "level off" in time for participants to sell out at the peak. Gold and silver also had a bull market around 1980 which didn't end so well, as I recall that history.
I also have a substantial position in PMs that is only going to increase by 500-700% in the next 4 years
My own feeling is that there is a lot of froth in the PM markets. Kind of reminds me of real estate about 3 years ago. Famous last words - "this time it's different."
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
A couple of good reads to consider. I know it's not CNN but it's at least as good as any spin with get from the FED IMO. I wonder if this is why neither party want's to stop Illegals coming into the country?
<< <i>Ya know, I was just thinkin' and reflecting on the phenomenon of governmental or corporate entities (in particular, financial institutions) trying to glomb on to piles of money, where ever it is. For example, social security fund...robbed long ago so the governmental entities got that money. Fund accounts held at large financial institutions...some articles recently about funds not paying out have been in the news and even a fund that was to buy metal for clients and charge them a storage fee for holding the metal, well, they didn't buy the metal but charged the account holders for the storage anyway (hee hee).
It seems that where ever there are concentrations of money such as 401 K's, IRA's, fund accounts, social security, that there are an equal movement by government and financial institutions to get control of that money or use it as a source of fees and taxes (sort of like making money on your money). Look at the lending industry...grabbed a bunch of good will on their balance sheets from no doc loans and put it together and sold it to other greed mongers and there you have it. So the whole food chain got fed, the writers, the agents, the funders, the packagers, everybody along the whole food chain (don't forget taxes and fees that were generated to our fed, state, local govt's). So, every body made a wad of buks and the financial folk were sucking up these innocent, hapless "citizens" and misguided opportunists like a vacuum cleaner stuck on "deep pile" mode. Look at your IRA or 401K, penalties if you take it out too soon, taxes when you do, just a line of people dependent on your 401K an entire food chain making a living on your money concentration. Even a CD, if you keep it for full term you still get to pay taxes on the interest earned by the money the bank was using to make interest off of borrowers so the fed/state gets paid when you do and the bank makes their money while the CD is working. Every body making money on your money. So, now that you realize that you are just on the lower part of a food chain that feeds the world, where does that leave ya? Damn good argument for PM's.
Just thinkin' >>
This is both scary and informative. At some point the U.S. is going to have to realize that it can't maintain indefinite dominance of all things financial solely based on fiat. The dollar has been propped up by foreign investors for so long that it has been taken for granted by many Americans. When major competitors arise in the form of fast moving Asian economies we might actually see some real competition and a more intelligent monetary policy. Until then, it does seem like PMs will hold the fort for a long time to come
<< <i>A couple of good reads to consider. I know it's not CNN but it's at least as good as any spin with get from the FED IMO. I wonder if this is why neither party want's to stop Illegals coming into the country?
Yeah, I've done some reading on that website. Very sobbering stuff about the "peak oil" scenario.
Yes, I do think that is part of the reason for the inaction on stopping the illegal alien invasion. IMO there are several reasons why the politicians do not want to stop the invasion:
1. Votes..... be nice to the illegals and let them invade, and they will be forever thankful to you and elect you!
2. Power. Once elected, it will be easier to remain in power. With the huge influx of undereducated masses, the public will be composed of a higher percentage of this class. They will tend to be easier to 'buy' off with welfare, government programs, etc..... thus allowing politicians to have strong central government control over the country. The more educated who tend to push against this type of government control will become more and more a minority with less and less influence just due to numbers involved.
3. Cheap labor. Many of those in power, or who own companies, want to avoid paying even minimum wage or benefits and thus want the illegals. The politicians want their house cleaners, yard workers, nannies........ the business owners want their fruit pickers, office cleaners, and meat cutters. It's almost like..... those in power want a...... slave labor class in this country.
4. Social Security. The hope may be that eventually most of these masses of illegals will become successful and start paying large amounts into the system, just in time to rescue SS before it collapses. That is..... if the financial situation in this country can survive long enough and not fail sooner due to the heavy burden being placed on it due to the illegal invasion! (hospitals, schools, welfare, etc)
5. Finally... security. More and more it is appearing that there really is a plan on very high levels to 'merge' the countries... and including perhaps Canada. By allowing the borders to be totally open, the process is beginning. And yes.... a common currency is being looked at (yeh, put on your tin foil hats). This would obviously help unite the 2-3 countries, and allow us to better compete with the Euro block which is gaining in influence more and more; and don't forget the power of the East, especially the rising of China. A merged union would provide stronger defense against Islamofascism, allow more secure oil resources (Mexico and Canada have significant supplies). There is some speculation that allowing our dollar to freefall right now may be intentional, perhaps as a lead-in to a new currency......
Tin foil hat theories? Perhaps. But it is obvious that the government DOES NOT WANT to stop the massive influx of illegal aliens. There is a reason.... and they obviously are not being up front and honest with us. We are being slammed into vast change whether we want to or not (at least it looks like there is little we can do about it). Voting in different politicians seems to matter little, as they are all part of the same power group.
Deadhorse, you believe that pm's are going to increase 500-700 %????
Please tell me what tells you that.
Could very well happen, IMHO.
One key indication that will tell us the peak of the Precious Metals cycle is the Dow/Gold Ratio chart. (See below). I've touched upon this before, but I really think it is the key.
There is good historical proof that the peak will happen when the Gold price EQUALS the Dow. ie., a ratio of one to one (1:1)
So, if you think the Dow is going to maintain or slightly increase its value in the next few years, say to 15,000. Then a 1:1 ratio will bring Gold to $15,000 per ounce.
This ratio indicator really needs looking at as I believe it to be extremely important in structuring your investing strategy.
I know that when the ratio gets to 1:1 or perhaps 2:1 (to play it safer), I'm going to exit ALL my PM's and plow them all into Dow stocks.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
While I basically agree with the Dow/gold ratio idea, relying on 2 data points over 80 yrs to determine the next outcome leaves me less than certain of how the current D/G ratio will end. The only data point on a pure fiat system was the 1980 ratio. Coming out of the current fiasco, people will be clamoring for a new system anchored to something of value. They are not going to want to lose huge hunks of their savings once again due to banker's games. And if that percentage-weighted anchor is not gold, then what are the other choices? (oil?). Gold should play a role much different this next time around.
The 1980-1982 "crash" scenario just doesn't make sense to me. Financial markets are currently proving the true monetary value of gold. Sorry, but the "new" paradigm of unending credit (1982-2007) and getting something for nothing was proven false and is now history. Also toss in a decade of 10-15% annual monetary growth and 45% per year OTC derivatives growth and you have a system badly in need of accountability. Time to redevise a currency anchor that is auditable and controllable while allowing economies to grow. And it's not just our problem now, but a world-wide one. So if not gold, then what? We're not coming out of this with the same old fiat so bankers can give it another 25 years of spin. JP Morgan had it right in 1912 as did Alan Greenspan in 1966 and James Sinclair in 2007 (ie gold is money).
also this link may just seem stratospheric to most, yet it is really unimaginable that a muni bond yields more than a 30yr t-note and could lead to serious repercussions felt everywhere, top to bottom..soup to nuts....be sure read the last line in the article
i also wonder if "Moonbeam" State A.G. Jerry Brown will allow it
Hot shot economist on CNN money just a few minutes ago telling we have rough times ahead. High inflation and near 1929 depression times coming. Stocks and bonds heading in rough territory. He said have some gold to protect yourself against inflation.Thats something you don't hear every day on CNN is to buy gold or at least I haven't heard it that many times.
Riverside County in So. Cal is where people move to when Orange County becomes too expensive. Unemployment in Riverside Co. has just hit 7% by 'official' standards and this may be just the beginning. Very few people that I know are considering hiring people unless they are exceptional.
There is a lot of belt tightening going on. A lot of pain for many many people. There is a pretty big shake out happening and this may have a ways to go.
Comments
regarding EFT SLV and GLD....the paper you hold is NOT representative of the physical silver or gold held by these funds.
ie you CANNOT exchange the paper for silver or gold in an ETF... you can sell the paper and then buy the physical metal.
SLV and GLD are for in and out traders...and should be invetsed/traded like a commodity market, not a stock market.
someone with more knowledge plz elaborate or correct me, if i am wrong.
These aren't leveraged and they don't expire like options, so why wouldn't you hold them longterm if you wanted to?
I knew it would happen.
ones assets in PMs, it's currently an in and out game.
Remember, when too many folks climb up on the horse, it
might be wise to get off ,before the poor beast collapses.
Camelot
Yee haa! Before long it'll be time to pick off some profits. Maybe in time for a free spring fishing trip!
<< <i>Yee haa! Before long it'll be time to pick off some profits. Maybe in time for a free spring fishing trip! >>
I think you'll regret that expensive trip for years to come.
This is the perfect time to go long.
This PM bull is just now picking up steam.
I've been long for may years now and other than a bit of real estate, my eggs are in the PM basket.
Don't get off now, in a few more years, you can retire and fish everyday.
This isn't like 1980, it's not artificial and the world market is ever growing for silver and gold. Demand outstrips supply and has for years.
Now supply is far less than it was just last year and there is no end in sight for that, it could well be years, if ever.
A silver mine can take 8 years to go online, a gold mine takes 10 years or more. Silver is a surface metal, the easy pickings are long gone and used up.
This beast isn't going to collapse, in fact it's growing like a baby dinosaur and it has yet to really roar.
Silver at $35 in 2009 is in the cards and gold at $1650 by year's end wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Folks who bail now are going to regret it for a long, long time.
In three years or so, we'll be looking back and remembering when silver was only $100 an ounce and gold was only $3500
Nobody gets off the train when it's just beginning to build up steam and picking up real speed.
We ain't seen nothing yet!!
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Rare coins is going to look like a smart hobby over time, along with owning PMs.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
<< <i>I guess another way of saying this is that people are at last acknowledging Emperor Dollar has no clothes.
Rare coins is going to look like a smart hobby over time, along with owning PMs. >>
<< <i>I guess another way of saying this is that people are at last acknowledging Emperor Dollar has no clothes.
Rare coins is going to look like a smart hobby over time, along with owning PMs. >>
Maybe, maybe not. Gold and silver have thousands of years of history of being money in one way or another.
I'm not convinced numismatic premiums are *necessarily* as immutable as PMs in terms of being a dependable store of wealth. Most other collectibles have cycles where they fall hard after a crash and don't recover. Historically coins have always recovered when some other collectibles never did, but I'm not convinced that mean it can't happen.
Having said that, I like the prospects of rare coins better than just about any other collectible with the possible exception of fine art.
I agree with Deadhorse completely, and for various reasons. There is no end in sight to the devaluation of the dollar. So what?
I see NO changes in governmental policy that give me any reason to think otherwise. If that's not enough to leave you shaking in your boots, then you aren't paying attention. Why should it matter?
Inflation reporting has mutated to the point where gasoline and food prices aren't considered representative of the "basket of goods & services" that are used to report inflation. Money supply (M1, M2 and M3) are not used to report inflation. Why not?
If actual inflation was reported, then the government would have to pay more in social security, interest payments, veteran's benefits and a host of other obligations that are tied to the inflation index. So who gets hurt?
If banks need to pump up their loan business and the Fed wants to accomodate the banks by printing more money and lowering lending standards so that more unqualified people (people who are unlikely to repay a loan) can buy houses, so what?
What do all of these scenarios have in common? They are intellectually AND ethically dishonest. With gold, silver and/or platinum, the government, bankers, the Fed, and the Wall Street brokers cannot get into your pants and steal every red cent you own. Pity. Their game might be over, or at least going into overtime.
There will be panic and alot of blame being passed around before it's over. Be sure to make contingency plans for your money and arrangements to keep it safe. Just my opinion, of course.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Deadhorse, I read all your posts and a few other peoples with great interest. I am very bullish on silver and gold but you seem to be so sure, wish I had your confidence. I hope you are right with your predictions. >>
Thanks.
My confidence is based on years of study and I continue to do so. I probably spent over 1,000 hours of study before I ever put anything into PMs back in 2001.
I had heard a lot, I remembered '79-'80. I've been collecting coins since I was a small child. But I didn't really understand silver and gold as well as I thought I did. Now, after many years of active buying and selling, I'd like to think I've got a good handle on it.
Older posters will remember I was the one who mortgaged my paid off home, plus took out loans and put it all into silver when we had crash down into the mid $4 range in April-May of 2003 I knew it couldn't stay there and 8 months later I sold out at $8+. I paid off the house again, paid the taxes, replaced my original silver plus quite a bit more on the last big dip in May of '04 at around $5.50 and came out over 100K to the good. That eventually went back into PMs as well. In 2005 I sold that house, used a portion of my PM holdings and bought a home that I never dreamed that I could ever own. Plus my mortgage is less than a nice apartment goes for in Houston today.
The real killer is the property taxes. I do my own escrow.
It's easy to say now, but back in 2002 I had determined that the third quarter 2007 was going to be the start of the breakout. I'd say I was pretty darn close.
Obviously, I'm cost averaged at a very low price overall today. I'm saying 2009 will be a huge year and there will be no floor dropping out. People will accept that those are the real market prices and then shortages will continue to build. By 2011 I think we'll be at a level where supply/usage will achieve some sort of parity/equilibrium with prices reflecting that. Some usage will be down due to the price. Not industrial, but in terms of jewelry and such. It could occur as early as 2010 as things are a bit crazy in the world these days. A nuclear exchange in the Middle East will send prices to the sky earlier than they would normally get there.
The prices will shock people looking at it from today's perspective, but that is where we will be and that is the time frame I'm looking at for finally selling out.
What worries me most is who will be President and what the tax rates will be at that point.
I'll deal with that when the time comes and creative minds can come up with creative solutions. I've already incorporated and established a track record of buying and selling, so for me, PMs are just inventory and not investments to be taxed like capital gains.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I hope that many who have come hear to read this thread through the years have done some good with some of our old time, conservative, advice here!
That said, this is no time to think that the markets are going to top out quickly. The public and the regular media are just waking up to the facts we have been preaching here for years.
All these little socialists in Washington, which is practically everyone there now, does not have your financial interest at heart. As we have said from the beginning, they were lying about inflation several years ago, and they are lying now. They are printing money as fast as the facilities can print it, and unfortunately the only ones being fooled by this are the regular common un-informed folks.
As long as the Fed drops the rates, and continues to print money, dumping it into the economy, we are going to have more and more inflation, and all the metals, oil, food, and most other commodities are going to keep going UP.
Please keep in mind that adjusted for inflation we could see $40 plus silver and $2,300 gold, and most likely will see $150 oil within two years.
Not to many days from now we are going to see $1,000 gold and all the Wall Street guys will be saying, “well that’s it, the bull run is over”, when that day comes ask yourself, just exactly what changed today?
Keep paying off debt, and DO NOT sell your hard assets.
and i think he should can his handle to deadon
Great calls Deadhorse Thanks
Ted Butler is finally getting as bullish as I am.
I haven't read everyone's post so I hope I'm not repeating someone's post,
but I can summarize why I am so convinced PMs have still got a long way to go,
and that is because true inflation is "the excess printing of money". Forget about prices. Where there is massive printing of paper currency you will definitely get huge amounts of inflation. It may not be immediate, but eventually it will show up.
And one, if not the only way to protect yourself, is transferring your paper wealth (US dollars) into a real asset that will strongly appreciate in times of inflation (Precious Metals).
There are many other reasons why I am confident (and just about 100% invested in PM's) but this is the main one.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
This is about the point that Pharmer would come in and quote GDP or CPI numbers to prove that we have strong growth and low inflation. See, no inflation here...and Bush even said so on TV.....plus Bernanke says that we don't have stagflation, but if it starts coming he'll take action against it. Unfortunately the latest GDP figure of +.6% is sort of hard to blow off. No worries, it will somehow get boosted next time to reassure all the sheeple that all is well after all.
roadrunner
The prices will shock people looking at it from today's perspective, but that is where we will be and that is the time frame I'm looking at for finally selling out
What do you mean "selling out? Is that the end of the line for you in PM's or do you think thats the end of the line for PM's period. Don't you think anyone should hold some PM's all the time no matter what the price is just for a worst case senario? In other words I guess what I'm asking is what do you think the long term (10-20 years) is for PM's or will you just look at the state of affairs when the time comes.
I hold the ETF, but only because I see no better candidate to serve as a major component in my IRAs at this time - including a Treasury Bill Fund, a stock index fund and any kind of foreign stock fund. If I could pull the money out to buy bullion without a massive penalty, I would.
So, again my question - is there any evidence that SLV isn't holding real bullion?
I knew it would happen.
Good question. roadrunner? Your thoughts?
I've felt that bullion offers real security, ever since the late '70s. I didn't hold a large position during the '80s, but my antenna were always up. In 1998, I bought back in and kept on buying. The reason? No better alternatives for new money.
When a better alternative than hard money presents itself, I'll re-evaluate. That process never stops.
I knew it would happen.
What do you mean "selling out"? Is this the end of PM's for you or you think thats the end of PM's run? Shouldn't people hold some PM's all the time just in case of a worst case senario? Whats the long term for PM's ( 10 to 20) years?
While it makes sense to hold some PM's at all times imo, I didn't do that prior to 2002 as I was in the same boat as most everyone else thinking that gold was a barbarous relic that generally performed poorly. We're in different times today. I think going forward that gold will play a continual role as "money" in portfolios. This question is no different than asking people about holding solid quality growth stocks long term (5-30 yrs). While that is considered a proper thing to do (even as stocks take beatings year after year) staying invested in any portion of gold long term will probably never catch on.
It will be hard to change people's expectations of stocks who invested in the 1982-2006 era. In their minds stocks only go up or at worst generally stay the same (the Nasdaq is conveniently forgotten). Likewise their expectations of gold (even after the current 7 yrs of a bull market) will always be based on 1980-2001.
roadrunner
<< <i>A note about the SLV - ETF. Everything I've read indicates that they hold the actual silver. In time of course, this could change. But for now - does anyone have any evidence that the ETF is not purchasing and storing actual silver bullion?
I hold the ETF, but only because I see no better candidate to serve as a major component in my IRAs at this time - including a Treasury Bill Fund, a stock index fund and any kind of foreign stock fund. If I could pull the money out to buy bullion without a massive penalty, I would.
So, again my question - is there any evidence that SLV isn't holding real bullion? >>
When you read the prospectus, read very carefully. The SLV-ETF itself DOES NOT store the silver themselves.... they do not own any storage facilities, etc. So guess what.... that is contracted out to a list of other institutions to 'store' the silver. When you look up the list of these institutions, you will see they are many of the major players-financial organizations. The ETF has the 'guarantees' that the institutions have the silver (well, a paper audit that says they have the silver).... but do they REALLY? How many other paper contracts are involved with the silver they have on hand? Have they lent it out..... and in turn have a piece of paper that they now still use to say they actually have the silver (since it is owed to them)??
Was it Bear Stearns that just had a lawsuit because they did not have the actual silver on hand that they were pretending to? Individuals were purchasing silver from them, and on top of that were paying them to store it! And all along the company did not physically have the silver on hand!! During the lawsuit, they said they did nothing wrong at all, and that this practice was common in the industry.......
The ETF is great for jumping in and out and trying to make a quick profit, etc. But use you own judgement. I personally think there could be some very disappointed 'owners' of silver in the future......
It seems that where ever there are concentrations of money such as 401 K's, IRA's, fund accounts, social security, that there are an equal movement by government and financial institutions to get control of that money or use it as a source of fees and taxes (sort of like making money on your money). Look at the lending industry...grabbed a bunch of good will on their balance sheets from no doc loans and put it together and sold it to other greed mongers and there you have it. So the whole food chain got fed, the writers, the agents, the funders, the packagers, everybody along the whole food chain (don't forget taxes and fees that were generated to our fed, state, local govt's). So, every body made a wad of buks and the financial folk were sucking up these innocent, hapless "citizens" and misguided opportunists like a vacuum cleaner stuck on "deep pile" mode. Look at your IRA or 401K, penalties if you take it out too soon, taxes when you do, just a line of people dependent on your 401K an entire food chain making a living on your money concentration. Even a CD, if you keep it for full term you still get to pay taxes on the interest earned by the money the bank was using to make interest off of borrowers so the fed/state gets paid when you do and the bank makes their money while the CD is working. Every body making money on your money. So, now that you realize that you are just on the lower part of a food chain that feeds the world, where does that leave ya? Damn good argument for PM's.
Just thinkin'
If they need say 10 tons in gold to dump on the market to soothe a dollar drop they know just where to get it. Barclay's is the manager of the gold ETF and it's no secret they are beholden to some of the other bigger brokerages that tend to play a big role in the PM shorts and longs. One call from the PPT to Goldman, then to Barclay's and they have all the physical bullion they need to make a market adjustment.
I trust Barclay's about as much as I would trust Goldman, the PPT or the FED. Barclay's has the same problem with sub-prime and other risks. So when they are hurting who do you think will help bail them out? And then who will be asking for return favors down the road?
If it is ever shown that the ETF's don't have the metal they claim to it will be a rush to the exits. Your investment in metals will then become a worthless pile of paper. Trailing stops and other gimmicks won't bail you out. Everyone will be trying to get out instantaneously. Get physical!
roadrunner
financial sky scrapers, however we are finding out
that there no longer seems to be a first floor.
Camelot
Until I read all this, I'd thought that I already have enough physical metal. Maybe I'll do my part to squeeze the shorts and buy some more silver.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Yeah, it was Bear Stearns getting payments for physical metal storage when there was no metal. How'd that lawsuit turn out?
Until I read all this, I'd thought that I already have enough physical metal. Maybe I'll do my part to squeeze the shorts and buy some more silver. >>
If I recall, a settlement was reached that was not publicly disclosed. And Bear Stearns did not have to admit to any wrong doing.
<< <i>The prices will shock people looking at it from today's perspective, but that is where we will be and that is the time frame I'm looking at for finally selling out
What do you mean "selling out? Is that the end of the line for you in PM's or do you think thats the end of the line for PM's period. Don't you think anyone should hold some PM's all the time no matter what the price is just for a worst case senario? In other words I guess what I'm asking is what do you think the long term (10-20 years) is for PM's or will you just look at the state of affairs when the time comes. >>
I have always intended to retire early and buy or build a small ranch over in the lush Texas Hill Country.
By sell out, I do mean sell out, as in rid myself of the tidy hoard that I have accumulated. I'm sure I'll keep some just as insurance, but even 20% would support the lifestyle I have in mind for the rest of my life.
One has to consider many factors and while financial security is the top most for many people, myself included, there is more to life than counting up your $$.
None of us are going to live forever, though I believe I've got many decades to go. It is my desire to leave the big city and the pressing work schedule to find a simpler life. I think we are going to reach a point where the metals market is going to level off. That doesn't mean metals won't continue to rise, just not at the incredible levels that we are seeing today and will continue to see for the next 4 years or so. At least that's what my studies tell me.
Metals will still be a great hedge against inflation and may well continue to be a solid investment, but I doubt we will see the average of 50% increases annually as we have for some time now.
Besides, the value of a fair sized amount of ranch land and a home that is off the grid should be a decent investment in itself.
It's still going to be years before we reach that point, but when the time comes, I'm getting out while the getting is good. Kicking back with a nice cool drink on a west facing porch and watching the sunsets along with financial security is my goal. Personally I love to grow things, both plants and animals. Many years ago, right after college, I owned a Truck Farm and I can say that that was one of the most enjoyable times in my life. There's nothing better than a freshly laid egg and add that to bacon from your own livestock, well that can't be beat. Most people have no idea of the difference between a fresh egg and store bought.
Those that don't are missing out on a rare treat. For me, that lifestyle is my true goal and it's what has driven me to push so hard for so many years with both my jobs and precious metals. I knew my goal years ago, but I wasn't wealthy enough to reach that. My studies on growing my nest egg drove me towards PMs as a solid way to reach what I really wanted out of life. Now that I've spent so many years in PM investments, I've come to realize that that choice was the only way to do it and I've reaped benefits that I would have never thought possible 10 years ago. Call it dumb luck, call it hard work and much study, I actually think it's a bit of both, but either way the results have been the same.
I'm not going to talk about net worth, but consider this; when I started in precious metals, I had a nest egg of $15,000 and a home worth around $160K that was very nearly paid off, only a year of so to go on the mortgage. I drove a 6 year old pick up that was paid for and that was it. Today, I could retire comfortably, but in this big city. I have a bevy of sports cars including a 911 Carrera, all paid off free and clear, and a home I never dreamed I could ever own. I also have a substantial position in PMs that is only going to increase by 500-700% in the next 4 years. Oh yeah, I still have that same pick up truck.
Precious metals have been very good to me, but it also takes work and buying and selling. My real point is tht PMs are a great investment and are only going to get better. But let's be realistic, all bull runs come to an end. PMs will still be great stores of wealth and will continue to increase in value, but in time it will level off somewhat. It's at that point that I cash out and call it a career. Of course, running a ranch isn't exactly sitting back in a rocking chair, but it will be all joy for me. I want to do that while I am young enough to really enjoy it. Working in this big city was exciting for a while, but I've spent the vast majority of my life here. I think everyone has to balance their goals and consider their age in order to find their compass point.
Hopefully, I've made most of the right decisions leading towards that place. Four more years or so ought to be the point at which PMs find their balance , but with prices that will amaze from today's perspective and that will fit in just right with my time frame for what I want to do with the rest of my life.
Time will tell.
NO, I am not telling everyone to get out of PMs in 3-4 years at all. It's just that for me, I think that will be the way to go. For younger people, The PM road will still offer great opportunities, but don't expect these meteoric rises forever. It doesn't work that way. Today, this is the place to be. Who can say where we will be in another 4-5 years? If things go right, I'll be working my butt off running a ranch and loving every minute of it. Even if I fail at every opportunity to make income from the ranch, I'll still have the financial backing to live comfortably the rest of my life on my own little paradise.
However, there is still a lot of work to do and more fun in PMs for several more years.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
" It's still going to be years before we reach that point, but when the time comes, I'm getting out while the getting is good. Kicking back with a nice cool drink on a west facing porch and watching the sunsets along with financial security is my goal. Personally I love to grow things, both plants and animals. Many years ago, right after college, I owned a Truck Farm and I can say that that was one of the most enjoyable times in my life. There's nothing better than a freshly laid egg and add that to bacon from your own livestock, well that can't be beat. Most people have no idea of the difference between a fresh egg and store bought. "
Hey, you will have easy access to cheap labor for that truck farm!! Some of those illegal aliens running past your front porch just might stop and help you out!!
Follow the dream.... you are right.... there is more to life than just counting up the dollars...
<< <i>A note about the SLV - ETF. Everything I've read indicates that they hold the actual silver. In time of course, this could change. But for now - does anyone have any evidence that the ETF is not purchasing and storing actual silver bullion?
I hold the ETF, but only because I see no better candidate to serve as a major component in my IRAs at this time - including a Treasury Bill Fund, a stock index fund and any kind of foreign stock fund. If I could pull the money out to buy bullion without a massive penalty, I would.
So, again my question - is there any evidence that SLV isn't holding real bullion? >>
From my research, I've come to believe that while it was their intent to actually own the physical silver as backing, they simply couldn't acquire that much. I remember it drove prices up for a while when they were taking some of it off the market.
I have come to believe that they only hold between 5 and 10% of the actual silver for the amount they have sold on paper. They stopped buying quite some time ago when it became clear that there simply just wasn't that much available.
I look at them just like I do any other group that sells paper metal.
IOW, I want nothing to do with them.
Good luck, but don't be shocked if the time comes and you find out that all you've got is some very expensive paper.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Hey, you will have easy access to cheap labor for that truck farm!! Some of those illegal aliens running past your front porch just might stop and help you out!!
Follow the dream.... you are right.... there is more to life than just counting up the dollars... >>
Nah!! That will be what I call target practice.
No, I'm not kidding. This is Texas, we have much different laws down here.
Anybody encroaches on your property without your permission, you have the right to shot them.
The illegal invasion will stop at my property line.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>It seems that where ever there are concentrations of money such as 401 K's, IRA's, fund accounts, social security, that there are an equal movement by government and financial institutions to get control of that money or use it as a source of fees and taxes (sort of like making money on your money). Look at the lending industry...grabbed a bunch of good will on their balance sheets from no doc loans and put it together and sold it to other greed mongers and there you have it. So the whole food chain got fed, the writers, the agents, the funders, the packagers, everybody along the whole food chain (don't forget taxes and fees that were generated to our fed, state, local govt's). So, every body made a wad of buks and the financial folk were sucking up these innocent, hapless "citizens" and misguided opportunists like a vacuum cleaner stuck on "deep pile" mode. Look at your IRA or 401K, penalties if you take it out too soon, taxes when you do, just a line of people dependent on your 401K an entire food chain making a living on your money concentration. Even a CD, if you keep it for full term you still get to pay taxes on the interest earned by the money the bank was using to make interest off of borrowers so the fed/state gets paid when you do and the bank makes their money while the CD is working. Every body making money on your money. So, now that you realize that you are just on the lower part of a food chain that feeds the world, where does that leave ya? Damn good argument for PM's.
>>
It could also be a good argument for more government oversight and regulation of financial industries, but those ideas are out of favor right now. It seems people want to relive the lack of regulation and laissez-faire attitude that caused the excesses and crimes of the Gilded Age (see any of Upton Sinclair's books, among many others, for details), and eventually the Great Depression.
People who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it. Somebody famous said that....
failings of the past, are always doomed
to repeat them.
Camelot
The problem is that bull markets rarely "level off" in time for participants to sell out at the peak. Gold and silver also had a bull market around 1980 which didn't end so well, as I recall that history.
I also have a substantial position in PMs that is only going to increase by 500-700% in the next 4 years
My own feeling is that there is a lot of froth in the PM markets. Kind of reminds me of real estate about 3 years ago. Famous last words - "this time it's different."
There is only greed...fear and piggishness!
Camelot
Please tell me what tells you that.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Banking system meltdown
Treasury Report Tells a Very Scary Tale
<< <i>Ya know, I was just thinkin' and reflecting on the phenomenon of governmental or corporate entities (in particular, financial institutions) trying to glomb on to piles of money, where ever it is. For example, social security fund...robbed long ago so the governmental entities got that money. Fund accounts held at large financial institutions...some articles recently about funds not paying out have been in the news and even a fund that was to buy metal for clients and charge them a storage fee for holding the metal, well, they didn't buy the metal but charged the account holders for the storage anyway (hee hee).
It seems that where ever there are concentrations of money such as 401 K's, IRA's, fund accounts, social security, that there are an equal movement by government and financial institutions to get control of that money or use it as a source of fees and taxes (sort of like making money on your money). Look at the lending industry...grabbed a bunch of good will on their balance sheets from no doc loans and put it together and sold it to other greed mongers and there you have it. So the whole food chain got fed, the writers, the agents, the funders, the packagers, everybody along the whole food chain (don't forget taxes and fees that were generated to our fed, state, local govt's). So, every body made a wad of buks and the financial folk were sucking up these innocent, hapless "citizens" and misguided opportunists like a vacuum cleaner stuck on "deep pile" mode. Look at your IRA or 401K, penalties if you take it out too soon, taxes when you do, just a line of people dependent on your 401K an entire food chain making a living on your money concentration. Even a CD, if you keep it for full term you still get to pay taxes on the interest earned by the money the bank was using to make interest off of borrowers so the fed/state gets paid when you do and the bank makes their money while the CD is working. Every body making money on your money. So, now that you realize that you are just on the lower part of a food chain that feeds the world, where does that leave ya? Damn good argument for PM's.
Just thinkin' >>
This is both scary and informative. At some point the U.S. is going to have to realize that it can't maintain indefinite dominance of all things financial solely based on fiat. The dollar has been propped up by foreign investors for so long that it has been taken for granted by many Americans. When major competitors arise in the form of fast moving Asian economies we might actually see some real competition and a more intelligent monetary policy. Until then, it does seem like PMs will hold the fort for a long time to come
<< <i>A couple of good reads to consider. I know it's not CNN but it's at least as good as any spin with get from the FED IMO. I wonder if this is why neither party want's to stop Illegals coming into the country?
Banking system meltdown
Treasury Report Tells a Very Scary Tale >>
Yeah, I've done some reading on that website. Very sobbering stuff about the "peak oil" scenario.
Yes, I do think that is part of the reason for the inaction on stopping the illegal alien invasion. IMO there are several reasons why the politicians do not want to stop the invasion:
1. Votes..... be nice to the illegals and let them invade, and they will be forever thankful to you and elect you!
2. Power. Once elected, it will be easier to remain in power. With the huge influx of undereducated masses, the public will be composed of a higher percentage of this class. They will tend to be easier to 'buy' off with welfare, government programs, etc..... thus allowing politicians to have strong central government control over the country. The more educated who tend to push against this type of government control will become more and more a minority with less and less influence just due to numbers involved.
3. Cheap labor. Many of those in power, or who own companies, want to avoid paying even minimum wage or benefits and thus want the illegals. The politicians want their house cleaners, yard workers, nannies........ the business owners want their fruit pickers, office cleaners, and meat cutters. It's almost like..... those in power want a...... slave labor class in this country.
4. Social Security. The hope may be that eventually most of these masses of illegals will become successful and start paying large amounts into the system, just in time to rescue SS before it collapses. That is..... if the financial situation in this country can survive long enough and not fail sooner due to the heavy burden being placed on it due to the illegal invasion! (hospitals, schools, welfare, etc)
5. Finally... security. More and more it is appearing that there really is a plan on very high levels to 'merge' the countries... and including perhaps Canada. By allowing the borders to be totally open, the process is beginning. And yes.... a common currency is being looked at (yeh, put on your tin foil hats). This would obviously help unite the 2-3 countries, and allow us to better compete with the Euro block which is gaining in influence more and more; and don't forget the power of the East, especially the rising of China. A merged union would provide stronger defense against Islamofascism, allow more secure oil resources (Mexico and Canada have significant supplies). There is some speculation that allowing our dollar to freefall right now may be intentional, perhaps as a lead-in to a new currency......
Tin foil hat theories? Perhaps. But it is obvious that the government DOES NOT WANT to stop the massive influx of illegal aliens. There is a reason.... and they obviously are not being up front and honest with us. We are being slammed into vast change whether we want to or not (at least it looks like there is little we can do about it). Voting in different politicians seems to matter little, as they are all part of the same power group.
Please tell me what tells you that.
Could very well happen, IMHO.
One key indication that will tell us the peak of the Precious Metals cycle is the Dow/Gold Ratio chart. (See below). I've touched upon this before, but I really think it is the key.
There is good historical proof that the peak will happen when the Gold price EQUALS the Dow. ie., a ratio of one to one (1:1)
So, if you think the Dow is going to maintain or slightly increase its value in the next few years, say to 15,000. Then a 1:1 ratio will bring Gold to $15,000 per ounce.
This ratio indicator really needs looking at as I believe it to be extremely important in structuring your investing strategy.
I know that when the ratio gets to 1:1 or perhaps 2:1 (to play it safer), I'm going to exit ALL my PM's and plow them all into Dow stocks.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
The 1980-1982 "crash" scenario just doesn't make sense to me. Financial markets are currently proving the true monetary value of gold. Sorry, but the "new" paradigm of unending credit (1982-2007) and getting something for nothing was proven false and is now history. Also toss in a decade of 10-15% annual monetary growth and 45% per year OTC derivatives growth and you have a system badly in need of accountability. Time to redevise a currency anchor that is auditable and controllable while allowing economies to grow. And it's not just our problem now, but a world-wide one. So if not gold, then what? We're not coming out of this with the same old fiat so bankers can give it another 25 years of spin. JP Morgan had it right in 1912 as did Alan Greenspan in 1966 and James Sinclair in 2007 (ie gold is money).
roadrunner
also this link may just seem stratospheric to most, yet it is really unimaginable that a muni bond yields more than a 30yr t-note and could lead to serious repercussions felt everywhere, top to bottom..soup to nuts....be sure read the last line in the article
i also wonder if "Moonbeam" State A.G. Jerry Brown will allow it
WSJ link
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
There is a lot of belt tightening going on. A lot of pain for many many people. There is a pretty big shake out happening and this may have a ways to go.