cohodk - thank you for your insights. I'm still "new" to the board, but get alot of confidence in making my own decisions after reading yours, and roadrunner's and deadhorse's comments, among others.
I read Sinclair, Casey, and Schiff, (and Mogambo) and I used to read alot of Richard Russell. It's revealing and scary to have knowledge and insight, but it's a darned lot better to be somewhat enlightened than not.
Thank you guys, for all of your comments.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Real Estate prices have been rising in Australia and New Zealand until just about 3 months ago. Funny thing is they are reporting the lowest consumer confidence levels in years and the economy is slowing down. So what did they do last week--RAISE interest rates. They are more concerned with battling inflation, than keeping their economy going. But being an economy based on raw materials, this doesnt make much sense to me.
In New Zealand the ave home price is $273,000 US. The ave income is 80% of the ave US income. Mortgage rates are 9.25%. The potential for major destruction in New Zealand is obscene. They will have to lower rates, which will help crush the carry trade.
I dont intend to sound like a doom and gloomer. Much like Cladkings thinking, we are a very powerful and intelligent nation with vast natural and human resources. We will pull through this, but in so much as the present two youngest generations have not had to sacrifice or deal with extreme hardship as the elder two generations have, I feel our time may be due.
Our social structure is much different today than it was in the 30s, 40s, 50s and we may find out of which mettle we are made.
<< <i>I dont intend to sound like a doom and gloomer. Much like Cladkings thinking, we are a very powerful and intelligent nation with vast natural and human resources. We will pull through this, but in so much as the present two youngest generations have not had to sacrifice or deal with extreme hardship as the elder two generations have, I feel our time may be due.
Our social structure is much different today than it was in the 30s, 40s, 50s and we may find out of which mettle we are made. >>
if you ask me the depression generation does not post on this board. they are quite old if not dead. if you grew up during WWII right up to the vietnam war, in my opinion, you had it very easy.
for example, where i grew up in michigan, i will use my uncles as an example. they all worked for GM or another large company which needed factory employees. All their buddies got good paying jobs with as little as a drop out high school education. They have pensions paying out to this day. They had very good timing to raise a family.
Now take the current generations. highly educated yet jobs are scarce for many majors and pay rates do not keep up with inflation. pensions really do not exist for us. we find social security to be laughable and probably will not exist for us. we have earned every penny and as always older generations scoff at it.
just because you see some overweight kids playing video games does not stereotype a generation. and heck, it was the kids who dreamed up those video games into a multi billion dollar arena.
one has to take comments with a grain of salt.. but please...
get off my lawn!
also, we are reaping the results of the past few generations. thanks a lot! stupid hippies.
Heard people talking about the gold price in the coffee shop today ...that usually means we are about ready for a blow off top and then the game will be up , possibly almost time for a dollar bottom??
Man, give peace a chance. Those stupid hippies are the only generation to pay into social security for their entire work lives. The previous generation was well into the market place before they even had a dime in the system. social security inception. Now, it's time for the hippies to step up for their benefit for paying into the system for 40 years only to find that not only is the cash being used somewhere else but "our" money is going to hoards of folk that not only didn't pay into the system but have no intention of ever working (at least, not on the books). So, it's not so much that the hippies were that trusting of the government because they were not (that history is well documented), their main fault was that they used money as a righteous instrument, an agreement between like minded individuals. But the hipsters really never had that much respect for money because in many cases, money just wasn't that necessary. Hippies really didn't need that much, it was more about understanding the world and trying to keep from getting sent to Viet Nam where some 60,000 of those hippies were killed defending democracy from the domino theory (but that's another story), all the while, paying into social security. Now, these hippies are lookin' for their money and starting to wonder who ripped them off.
I have long felt that the members of this Forum would survive any economic distress that might befall the Nation. I do not know if it is because of what folks learn from the Forum, or, because the Forum attracts people who are thoughtful and self reliant.
It seems to me that coin collectors have an innate sense of value ,as well as an appreciation for precious metals.Further, in order to follow the normal business cycles of the coin market, one is automatically involved with other cycles involving stocks and real estate markets.
No one is able to call the top or the bottom of any market with any degree of accuracy, however, Forum members seem able to prepare themselves against the most severe of economic difficulties.
This Forum probably contains more collective common sense, as to economics, then most talking heads expound on TV or the radio. Forum members are indeed lucky to be able to tap into this valuable source of "uncommon " common sense.
this may have been questioned a page or two up, but isn't JPMorgan / Chase supposidly(sp) one of the largest holders of silver (physical) in the SLV fund? what happens when if/ THEY need to liquidate and OMG they only have , say 45% of what they are supposed to have in the fund???
just because they are a big boy with the Central Banks will the FED bail them out....THEN what?
NOTHING can bail THAT out.
PS codhook "ride-on" with your educational statement. the problem is not the teachers but the lack of parental support and bloated beuracracy(sp) in the educational system "parenting" our children. i do not believe any BS about not being able to be involved with kids schooling (work, money, time etc is a BS excuse) kids should be numero uno and sadly they are on not for most "families" these days.
<< <i>I dont intend to sound like a doom and gloomer. Much like Cladkings thinking, we are a very powerful and intelligent nation with vast natural and human resources. We will pull through this, but in so much as the present two youngest generations have not had to sacrifice or deal with extreme hardship as the elder two generations have, I feel our time may be due.
Our social structure is much different today than it was in the 30s, 40s, 50s and we may find out of which mettle we are made. >>
if you ask me the depression generation does not post on this board. they are quite old if not dead. if you grew up during WWII right up to the vietnam war, in my opinion, you had it very easy.
for example, where i grew up in michigan, i will use my uncles as an example. they all worked for GM or another large company which needed factory employees. All their buddies got good paying jobs with as little as a drop out high school education. They have pensions paying out to this day. They had very good timing to raise a family.
Now take the current generations. highly educated yet jobs are scarce for many majors and pay rates do not keep up with inflation. pensions really do not exist for us. we find social security to be laughable and probably will not exist for us. we have earned every penny and as always older generations scoff at it.
just because you see some overweight kids playing video games does not stereotype a generation. and heck, it was the kids who dreamed up those video games into a multi billion dollar arena.
one has to take comments with a grain of salt.. but please...
get off my lawn!
also, we are reaping the results of the past few generations. thanks a lot! stupid hippies. >>
Interesting..... you say not to stereotype a generation (when refering to yours) but then you take a broad brush to paint my generation as stupid hippies. And saying we had it easy. If you are half way serious, then the statements you have made certainly point out your immaturity.
Yeah, right... I've had it easy. Let's see..... I grew up in a tiny 5 room house (less than 900 square feet for a family of 7). We had no indoor plumbing, no hot water, and our heat was a wood stove. I had to pay my own way through college. Anything I've made throughout my life I have earned on my own.
I've paid social security all my life.... and it has been a significant amount. When I am finally ready to retire (if I retire) in another 10 years or so, yeah, right..... I'll be very lucky if I get any of it back at all. Yet you seem to place the blame for the problem on my entire generation, when we too are the victims of the crooks in washington. Thanks.
Like you said.... one has to take comments with a grain of salt.. but please...
I'll stay off your lawn.... but you stay off of mine also.
you forgot walk to school, uphill both ways, with no shoes. what you described of your life was the norm for MANY americans decades ago. why do you think it was somehow special to just you?
what is funny you miss my point of sarcasm. every generation thinks this of the others. it is typical of age.
get off my lawn is the proverbial old man saying to kids.
times change and comparing yourself to the current generation and stating we were this and that is quite laughable.
people are people. nothing has changed about us since 1776. :-P greed, lust, pride, and all the rest are staples of our lives.
oh and btw, who should kids blame this mess on if not the past generations? who indeed?
anyway, you took my comments so personally. i blamed a generation and you think i am attacking you directly. such pride! such pride!
this may have been questioned a page or two up, but isn't JPMorgan / Chase supposidly(sp) one of the largest holders of silver (physical) in the SLV fund? what happens when if/ THEY need to liquidate and OMG they only have , say 45% of what they are supposed to have in the fund???
just because they are a big boy with the Central Banks will the FED bail them out....THEN what?
NOTHING can bail THAT out.
From the SLV iShares Prospectus, "The trustee is The Bank of New York and the custodian is JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., London Branch. The agreement between the trust and the custodian is governed by English law.
"The trustee is responsible for the day-to-day administration of the trust. The responsibilities of the trustee include (1) processing orders for the creation and redemption of Baskets; (2) coordinating with the custodian the receipt and delivery of silver transferred to, or by, the trust in connection with each issuance and redemption of Baskets; (3) calculating the net asset value and the adjusted net asset value of the trust on each business day; and (4) selling the trust's silver as needed to cover the trust's expenses.........."
Also, "The custodian is responsible for safekeeping the silver owned by the trust. The custodian is appointed by the trustee and is responsible for any loss of silver to the trustee only.........Because the holders of iShares are not parties to the custodian agreement, their claims against the custodian may be limited........"
My comments: I don't see anything that guarantees any type of 1:1 relationship between the amount of silver held by the custodian and the market value of the shares issued by the trust. Just an observation.
Any physical silver is being held in England and is at least one legal entity removed from the issuer of the trust, so any claims are already an extra step down the list of claimants in the event of a bankruptcy filing. If actual fraud is involved, just forget it, imo.
Further down, I note some addtional interesting things:
"An investment in iShares is:
Backed by silver held by the custodian on behalf of the trust. The iShares are backed by silver, identified on the custodian's books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the trust and held by the custodian in England and other locations that may be authorized in the future.
As accessible and easy to handle as any other investment in shares. Retail investors may purchase and sell iShares through traditional brokerage accounts at prices expected to be less than the amount required for currently existing means of investing in physical silver. iShares are eligible for margin accounts......"
My comments:
Um, I can't decide why the custodians would need to have both allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the trust, unless the trust for some reason was engaging in arbitrage in the silver market or something like that. I mean, who's money is allocated and who's isn't? If the trust runs into financial difficulties, are the allocated and unallocated accounts somehow treated differently?
And, the biggie - why and how would the trust offer margin accounts, if it is holding physical silver in the correct amounts for each shareholder? Whose money are they playing with? It appears that they may be taking a lesson from the U.S. Govt, and playing margin trades with shareholder money. Does anyone see it differently?
There's alot more in the prospectus, and some of these questions might be answered in more detail, so I will offer other excerpts if I see anything else interesting.......
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
There are about 30 different iShares funds listed under the name ishares, most of them some kind of paper or index (check it out). The only one that actually said anything about metal was IAU and it's trading just under a hundred buks and seems to be doing very well. This is going to be an interesting story by the time it plays out.
<< <i>this may have been questioned a page or two up, but isn't JPMorgan / Chase supposidly(sp) one of the largest holders of silver (physical) in the SLV fund? what happens when if/ THEY need to liquidate and OMG they only have , say 45% of what they are supposed to have in the fund???
just because they are a big boy with the Central Banks will the FED bail them out....THEN what?
NOTHING can bail THAT out.
PS codhook "ride-on" with your educational statement. the problem is not the teachers but the lack of parental support and bloated beuracracy(sp) in the educational system "parenting" our children. i do not believe any BS about not being able to be involved with kids schooling (work, money, time etc is a BS excuse) kids should be numero uno and sadly they are on not for most "families" these days. >>
57"un"loaded
Not sure what "educational statement" I ever made and not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing, but for FWIW, I believe most parents today view the school system as a glorified babysitter. Many parents are not interested in their own children, because they are too interested in themselves.
I have long felt that the members of this Forum would survive any economic distress that might befall the Nation. I do not know if it is because of what folks learn from the Forum, or, because the Forum attracts people who are thoughtful and self reliant.
It seems to me that coin collectors have an innate sense of value ,as well as an appreciation for precious metals.Further, in order to follow the normal business cycles of the coin market, one is automatically involved with other cycles involving stocks and real estate markets.
No one is able to call the top or the bottom of any market with any degree of accuracy, however, Forum members seem able to prepare themselves against the most severe of economic difficulties.
This Forum probably contains more collective common sense, as to economics, then most talking heads expound on TV or the radio. Forum members are indeed lucky to be able to tap into this valuable source of "uncommon " common sense.
Well stated and in paragraph form. omg
It is always darkest before the dawn. NOW is the time to start thinking about where to go while everyone else is just about to panic.
There is an old investment philosophy...............Buy when blood is running in the streets. It's getting close.
is always darkest before the dawn. NOW is the time to start thinking about where to go while everyone else is just about to panic.
I'd be buying banking stock then if that's how you fell. Really this board doesn't even represent 1% of the way Americans feel. Joe Public is trying to pay some bills but they have no idea of the scope of the problem. We just went though a roaring 20's for a couple of decades. I think I'd wait until something happens bad before I used that quote because we will come out of it. This crowd on this thread is the leading edge and I don't think many of us are willing to bail even though most have at least trippled our money. I sure don't need any more dollars I agree with Sinclair the dollar will be .52 before this is over.
Some interesting sections from the article "Unanswered Questions About the Silver ETF
by James Turk"
“2.7 Substitution of Silver: With your prior approval (in consultation with the Sponsor), we [i.e., Morgan Chase] may substitute other Bullion for Bullion held in the Allocated Account, provided that there is no change in the total number of troy ounces of Silver held in the Allocated Account.”
Hmmm..... wonder what the 'other Bullion' may be? Could it be.... paper representing unallocated silver from an undisclosed 'sub custodian'? Someone like.... Bear Stearns?
"2.6 Reversal of entries: "We [i.e., Morgan Chase] at all times reserve the right to reverse any provisional or erroneous entries to the Account with effect back-valued to the date upon which the final or correct entry (or no entry) should have been made.”"
Hmmm.... they reserve the right to change their bookkeeping entries? Now why would they ever want to do that??
Do you remeber 1982? Bank America was 6 bucks a share. So many opportunities.....so few funds. I could only afford a thousand shares. I had only been out in the working world for a few years.
If anyone considers this thread cutting edge..............
I'm sure you don't and that's why your where you are now. When the stock market gets around 9000 I'm sure I'll be buying some good value stocks. Don't fool yourself this global and just in time ecomony will implode on itself and you'll see nationalism sooner than you think. The "Can't we all just get along" sounds great and a great goal but some of those that have us by the short hairs aren't our friends. Wait and see we'll see whos right here soon.
"The educational system is so easy to fix that we'll probably fail. Why fix it while everyone profits from the status quo?"
Cladking -- I'd be very curious to hear your thoughts on fixing education? It seems that the solution is difficult to achieve because it requires (a) a substantial increase in funding, which so-called conservatives are unwilling to allocate, and (b) "deregulation" and greater free market activities in education, which so-called liberals are unwilling to accept. Fixing education requires true bipartisanship -- that is, accepting aspects to the fix that may seem to go against one's basic political philosophy.
(Alan Greenspan, in his autobiography, essentially agrees that education is the primary potential obstacle to our ongoing prosperity. He also argues quite convincingly that education is the primary driver of disparity in wealth in the US)
Somehow it is not comforting to me that "custodian" JPMorgan Chase just happens to be the largest holder of derivatives in the world....$76.9 TRILLION. Yet against that, $1.4 trillion in stated assets. Further breakdown:
JPM 1.4 TRILL in assets 76.9 TRILL in total derivatives (55:1 leverage over assets) 67.6 TRILL in total interest rate derivatives 53.9 TRILL in swaps (if credit default swaps - generally risky) 12.5 TRILL in OTC derivatives (the riskiest kind)
Bank of New York 102 BILL in assets 933 BILL in total derivatives 350 BILL in OTC derivatives 348 BILL in swaps
Yeah, these are the guys I want behind my silver ETF.
<< <i>"The educational system is so easy to fix that we'll probably fail. Why fix it while everyone profits from the status quo?"
Cladking -- I'd be very curious to hear your thoughts on fixing education? It seems that the solution is difficult to achieve because it requires (a) a substantial increase in funding, which so-called conservatives are unwilling to allocate, and (b) "deregulation" and greater free market activities in education, which so-called liberals are unwilling to accept. Fixing education requires true bipartisanship -- that is, accepting aspects to the fix that may seem to go against one's basic political philosophy.
(Alan Greenspan, in his autobiography, essentially agrees that education is the primary potential obstacle to our ongoing prosperity. He also argues quite convincingly that education is the primary driver of disparity in wealth in the US) >>
The quick and dirty means of fixing it is to raise teacher pay about 30% while making it merit based, running urban schools in shifts year round, and reducing school funding by at least 35% while turning control over to local government.
Everybody in the system has to be responsible for outcomes rather than inten- tions. Classes should be split up into 8 or 10 week blocks so those who don't master the material can be held back to repeat it. Disruptive and violent stu- dents should be left behind. Get them out of the schools! We've got reform schools that can work with them and juvi can handle the worst.
If this doesn't work within a few months then much more draconian measures are both possible and preferable to the erosion of our institutions and murder of our young people. Children can learn how to read in only a few weeks so there is simply no excuse to turn out illiterates or to promise future results.
"12.5 TRILL in OTC derivatives (the riskiest kind)"
I would think that betting on OTC derivatives would be somewhat like betting on high school basketball for big money. That's an incredible amount of money to have out there blowing in the wind.
Yeah, but think of the billions in fees and profits they raked in on that $12 TRILLION in derivatives deals. Even that alone is a 10-1 leverage ratio. Those profits are all safely tucked away somewhere including big salaries, perks, and bonuses. It was fun for them while it lasted though. The junk bond scandel of the past has nothing on these guys.
I think it would be unrealistic to expect more than a 50% recovery rate on those Over-the-counter derivatives. More than likely less than 10-20%. What counter-parties are going to be able to pay up? More than likely they will (or are already) screaming foul and are lining up lawsuits to take on JPM, GS, Merrill, Citi, Lehman and others. I don't think anyone is gonna pay these big boys a dime without a fight and years in court. See you in court buster!
Over on JSMineset.com (see link below) Monty Guild gave a nice summary of the Bear Sterns mess. The conclusion is the same thing he and Sinclair have been saying for several years:
THE SHORT ANSWER TO WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS IS MORE INFLATION, HIGHER GOLD PRICES, HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES AND A LOT LOWER PRICES FOR BONDS. ....don't count on a stock market resurgence or commodities collapse anytime soon. If you think commodity prices are high now....hang around a while.
The FED always seems to try and be unpredictable in the short term. I got a feeling they won't do exactly what is expected on Tuesday. While they want to give the stock market a lift, they don't want to assist gold either. I'd guess no more than 1/2 pt which should stall gold and oil, and keep the stock market even.
Things must be reaching a boiling point to elicit articles like this on selection Sunday (go Huskies!)
I have a feeling that SLV and I will part ways. It's been a straight shot up recently. I will probably clean house tomorrow and start over with Intermediate Treasuries.
Maybe I'll bite the bullet (again) and take more out of my IRA & SEP (taxes & penalties, again).
All this talk has got me back into defensive mode. Even though it's play money, I don't want to lose it - the last thing I need is to become another of Hillary's dependants.
Side note - has anyone else noticed (with colors and all) that our currency looks more and more like the old Monopoly Money?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Boy the good news never ends. This is a little scary and well worth the read. Maybe a little cash around the house wouldn't be a bad idea right now if you don't already have some.
The biggest threat to our way of life is the encumbered and broken education- al system. We are fast running out of time to repair it. If we fail we will be a very dangerous and very poor third world country within two generations.
The educational system is so easy to fix that we'll probably fail. Why fix it while everyone profits from the status quo? >>
RR,
I think it's been a couple of years since talk show host Neil Boortz exclaimed that teachers unions were more detrimental to this country than Islamic Fascists. While I can't really get my head around such a comparison...I understand the intent. I have four kids in private school and see a huge difference in their enthusiasm, respect for God and Country, and respect for elders and eagerness to learn. Whenever we do events that include some public school kids we see the disrespect, the nasty language and the constant disruption. I know there are good kids in public school but they and their parents have to really work at it to not get sucked into "popular-culture-world."
Just get rid of the Dept. of Education and start over with competition in the private section...I know it wont happen anytime soon.
<< <i>Heard people talking about the gold price in the coffee shop today ...that usually means we are about ready for a blow off top and then the game will be up , possibly almost time for a dollar bottom?? >>
I saw an interesting commercial last night while watching the Austrailian Gran Prix. The commercial was about GoldKit. Call and get a pouch to put in your old gold jewelry and send it in and get cash. Then the commercial goes to happy clients that say "I sent away my old gold and got all this cash and now I can go on vacation."
The perfect storm to take the global ecomony down. I posted part of this on another thread but since this is in the current news I though I'd post the transcript from the Jan Opera show "Bird Flu-The Untold story".
O.K. Boys dump those brokerage and Bank shares cause here we go!
“JPMorgan to Buy Bear for $2 a Share Sunday March 16, 7:36 pm ET By Joe Bel Bruno and Madlen Read, AP Business Writers
JPMorgan Says It Will Buy Ailing Bear Stearns in a Deal Valued at $236.2 Million NEW YORK (AP) -- JPMorgan Chase said Sunday it will acquire rival Bear Stearns in a deal valued at $236.2 million, a stunning collapse for one of the world's largest and most venerable investment banks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the $2 a share, all-stock deal has received the required approvals from the federal government and the Federal Reserve. Bear Stearns shares close Friday at $30 a share.
The Fed will provide special financing to JPMorgan Chase for the deal, JPMorgan Chase said. The central bank has agreed to fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns' less liquid assets.
At almost the same time as the deal for control of Bear Stearns was announced, the Federal Reserve said it approved a cut in its lending rate to banks to 3.25 percent from 3.50 percent and created another lending facility for big investment banks.”
Wow.... is that all they figure the company is worth, figuring in the derivatives?? If so, the other banks and brokerages probably have similar investment levels.....
What an incredible evening! I ended Friday long gold and the euro, short a bit of platinum. Now I'm sitting pretty! I'll sleep well tonight - though up early to see what's happened, no doubt.
OPEC made a BIG mistake when they decided not to raise production. From here on the oil producers' total inflation-adjusted return will drop as currencies depreciate and consumption drops. They will discover that the reason the Stone Age ended wasn't because mankind ran out of stones!
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
After reading all the doom and gloom threads last night I expected to wake this morning and see more carnage. Seems like the Fed won today...a crisis averted. But there's always tomorrow.
What bank is next to scare the "poop" out of the lemmings.
What worries me now is that they are on record to do whatever it takes (with our taxpaying money) to avert a credit crisis until...oh, I don't know, January 2009(?)
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
I am amused/saddened/intrigued by all the comments about education here. As many of you know, I have a Ph.D. in satellite imagery. As a person who will be 50 in just over a month, and (the good Lord willing) am in a stable place financially, I have decided to become a teacher, most likely teaching high school math. Due to the State of California's insane regulations, with my Ph.D. I can teach at the University level, but if I want to teach K-12 I have to go back to school (e.g. college) full time for a year to get teaching credentials. Needless to say, this p1sses the he11 out of me. So, in order to make sure this is indeed what I want to do, I have been teaching part time as a substitute teacher for a little over a year. Here are some responses to some of the above points made about education.
First off, the most important education a child will EVER get is from their parents. They will model themselves upon the parents. (I realize there are exceptions, but this is generally true). Many parents just let their children veg in front of the TV or a game station. Here are two simple and yet important things that parents should do. 1) (And MOST importantly) Parents should read to their children. What percentage of kids in this country have their parents read to them at night? This teaches them the basic importance (and fun) of being literate. 2) How many parents take kids and feed their native curiousity by doing such things as explaining how things work (be it details of a machine, or how you get sunsets)? This sets children on the path of being mechanical engineers or scientists or whatever.
Second, as to public schools, it should be remembered they are PUBLIC schools. Remember what Samuel Clemens (that's Mark Twain to those illiterates out there) said, "First God made an idiot for practice, and then He made a School Board". Every chowderhead or lobbying groups of chowderheads can affect what occurs in schools. Unfortunately IMO the worst affect of this is the lowering of discipline... "Poor Johnny should not be put in the corner, it's not fair". Scr_w that!!! Johnny should be sent out of the room. If you do not have control of a class it does not matter how well you can teach a subject, in effect you will always be trying to put out fires first (sometimes quite literally). I find CladKings comments an exercise in mental laxity, <<"The quick and dirty means of fixing it is to raise teacher pay about 30% while making it merit based, running urban schools in shifts year round, and reducing school funding by at least 35% while turning control over to local government. ">> (Anyone notice the inherent problem here?), but he is dead on about weeding out the troublemakers. Most kids are decent people, but they are willing to see what they can get away with, and if they feel that they can get away with murder, then there will ALWAYS be someone in the class who will push it. A MAJOR difference between public and private schools is that in private schools a kid can be booted out relatively easily, while for public schools a kid really has to work at it to get the boot.
I FULLY support merit pay, but a simple question is how do you determine it? Do you say, "test results"? Well, then you have the "teach to the test" form of teaching, where kids memorize lots of stuff, but can't necessarily think about the material. The most succesful teachers I've seen all have fairly idiosyncratic/personal forms of teaching and I strongly suspect that the test results produced by their students would be wildly diverse... yet the students, for the most part, have a good grasp of the material the teacher is teaching them.
I also support school vouchers. IMO some schools are "bankrupt" and should close up shop.
Finally, as to the teachers union. As of in all things Union, it was created because there were problems between the management (administrators etc.) and the workers (teachers). Don't fool yourself that these issues don't still exist. I have seen several cases where the administration pulled ABSOLUTE BULLSH1T on teachers, and it was only the union that saved the teacher's tailfeathers. The problem is more of one of who is going into the MANAGEMENT positions in the Union. These are the ones that need to be changed, if you are going to change the Unions position on vouchers, merit pay etc., and as of in many things dealing with esoteric elections, not many people (in this case the teachers) care about, or pay attention to the positions of, who they are voting for.
Since this whole thread is about predictions, the prediction I'm going to make is that unfortunately none of this will change, and in all likelihood it will get worse.
Since this whole thread is about predictions, the prediction I'm going to make is that unfortunately none of this will change, and in all likelihood it will get worse. >>
And this is the most frightening thing today... ...you're probably right.
Everything related to education has become an institution in itself; text book manufacturers put out politically correct crap that just happens to be full of fact- ual errors. Even math texts have numerous errors because the editors are too busy looking for PC than whether the content is consistent, accurate, or under- standable. School boards tend to be the root of most local problems. They op- erate under "procedure" which has been built up for decades and, obviously, is not working. Students can't be flunked so many kids in the class simply don't un- derstand the material. This is not a good learning atmosphere.
The problem with the schools is simply that what works to "learn" the kids doesn't matter. What matters is that rules and regulations are followed. What matters is that the administration gets paid and appear to address problems. What matters is that most of the people finish the day without a shiv in the stomach.
The bar is simply not set high enough. Kids have a natural tendency to want to learn and they'lll have fun at it if given their head. This means good teachers, few rules, and consequences for good and bad behavior. Teachers aren't allowed to run their classes in most places and students know there are no consequences if everyone is afraid of them, their gangs, or their lawyers.
The problem in this country is that too much money is spent on education. We spend multiples of other first world countries and have far worse results. Third world coun- tries spend far less still and often have better results.
If we can't fix this problem then the long term outlook is very bleak. It won't be many years before the trickle of foreign doctors and engineers returning to their homelands becomes an exodus. We won't be able to even maintain what we have, far less build on it!
This might be bullish for metals but it's very bearish for our way of life and the concept of liberty.
My educational credentials may be scant compared to others on this thread but I do have a Master of Architecture degree to go with an undergraduate in Microbiology (that means I didn't get into med school). I went to night school, community college, University of Maryland adjunct classes while I was in the army, every type of venue that exists but only after flunking out of college on my first try out of high school did I have any idea of the value of being educated. Since that time, I have taught in our community college for the last 15 years as a second job because it was necessary that I do it...kind of like leaving a bread crumb trail for others that may want to follow. I value my education and the education of others so much, it is very important.
To fix the education system (as mentioned before we spend a gigamountain of buks for slight returns) we have to begin using a system used in europe. If you are not promising after your second year of high school, it's off to trade school you go. Somehow our mtv generations seem to think that if they are going to work, they either need to be a ball star or a CEO and sweetheart, it just ain't that way. Somebody has to fix the cars, make the electronics, throw the pottery, make the clothing. We have devalued the regular work of our fathers in our society to where it no longer has any status and the jobs go begging so bad that they are in India now. We have very few tradesmen now, particularly those holding US citizenship. Regarding discipline problems in highschool, they must be countered by public ordinances that either put those people in a special place or regroove them till they get it.
Our education directors, our academic education leaders, our congress that funds this madness, our parents that don't have enough concern for their children to give a damn, they all have a hand in the rotten fruit that we keep trying to make a harvest from. We could quote stats, link reports, carry on like we could do something about it but ulitmatelly, it's about the schools. We have truly lost our way...the masses of people don't value education and have little benefits of the understanding that comes from learning. Here's how it goes: you find something you like to do, you learn about it and get pretty good at it, you charge people money to do it for them, you live happily ever after or at least you have a pretty good chance of at least having a chance.
What worries me now is that they are on record to do whatever it takes (with our taxpaying money) to avert a credit crisis until...oh, I don't know, January 2009(?)
R >>
yup, but sooner than later nothing will work
i don't think anyone in government wants to have the "D" word...carved on their tombstone other than "Died"
what caused gold to TANK from $860 so FAST and then rebound in 1980?
kitco chart supplied
>>
What happened is just simply that there were more sellers than buyers. When everyone has already bought, who are you going to sell yours to? Prices start to decline, everyone rushes to the same door, and prices collapse. Look at any internet stock chart in 2000 and you will see the same pattern as it is common in any bubble. Chances are you will see a similiar pattern in the grain commodities and select currencies when those bubbles finally pop.
Comments
no one left to fight with are we all in agreement
were tanking
<< <i>You Know i'm not sure i like this
no one left to fight with are we all in agreement
were tanking >>
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
...and another few years of republocrats.
I read Sinclair, Casey, and Schiff, (and Mogambo) and I used to read alot of Richard Russell. It's revealing and scary to have knowledge and insight, but it's a darned lot better to be somewhat enlightened than not.
Thank you guys, for all of your comments.
I knew it would happen.
Real Estate prices have been rising in Australia and New Zealand until just about 3 months ago. Funny thing is they are reporting the lowest consumer confidence levels in years and the economy is slowing down. So what did they do last week--RAISE interest rates. They are more concerned with battling inflation, than keeping their economy going. But being an economy based on raw materials, this doesnt make much sense to me.
In New Zealand the ave home price is $273,000 US. The ave income is 80% of the ave US income. Mortgage rates are 9.25%. The potential for major destruction in New Zealand is obscene. They will have to lower rates, which will help crush the carry trade.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Our social structure is much different today than it was in the 30s, 40s, 50s and we may find out of which mettle we are made.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I dont intend to sound like a doom and gloomer. Much like Cladkings thinking, we are a very powerful and intelligent nation with vast natural and human resources. We will pull through this, but in so much as the present two youngest generations have not had to sacrifice or deal with extreme hardship as the elder two generations have, I feel our time may be due.
Our social structure is much different today than it was in the 30s, 40s, 50s and we may find out of which mettle we are made. >>
if you ask me the depression generation does not post on this board.
they are quite old if not dead. if you grew up during WWII right up to
the vietnam war, in my opinion, you had it very easy.
for example, where i grew up in michigan, i will use my uncles as an
example. they all worked for GM or another large company which needed
factory employees. All their buddies got good paying jobs with as little
as a drop out high school education. They have pensions paying
out to this day. They had very good timing to raise a family.
Now take the current generations. highly educated yet jobs are scarce
for many majors and pay rates do not keep up with inflation. pensions
really do not exist for us. we find social security to be laughable and
probably will not exist for us. we have earned every penny and as
always older generations scoff at it.
just because you see some overweight kids playing video games
does not stereotype a generation. and heck, it was the kids who
dreamed up those video games into a multi billion dollar arena.
one has to take comments with a grain of salt.. but please...
get off my lawn!
also, we are reaping the results of the past few generations.
thanks a lot! stupid hippies.
Man, give peace a chance. Those stupid hippies are the only generation to pay into social security for their entire work lives. The previous generation was well into the market place before they even had a dime in the system. social security inception. Now, it's time for the hippies to step up for their benefit for paying into the system for 40 years only to find that not only is the cash being used somewhere else but "our" money is going to hoards of folk that not only didn't pay into the system but have no intention of ever working (at least, not on the books). So, it's not so much that the hippies were that trusting of the government because they were not (that history is well documented), their main fault was that they used money as a righteous instrument, an agreement between like minded individuals. But the hipsters really never had that much respect for money because in many cases, money just wasn't that necessary. Hippies really didn't need that much, it was more about understanding the world and trying to keep from getting sent to Viet Nam where some 60,000 of those hippies were killed defending democracy from the domino theory (but that's another story), all the while, paying into social security. Now, these hippies are lookin' for their money and starting to wonder who ripped them off.
would survive any economic distress that might
befall the Nation. I do not know if it is because of
what folks learn from the Forum, or, because the
Forum attracts people who are thoughtful and
self reliant.
It seems to me that coin collectors have an innate
sense of value ,as well as an appreciation for precious
metals.Further, in order to follow the normal business
cycles of the coin market, one is automatically involved
with other cycles involving stocks and real estate markets.
No one is able to call the top or the bottom of any
market with any degree of accuracy, however, Forum
members seem able to prepare themselves against the
most severe of economic difficulties.
This Forum probably contains more collective common
sense, as to economics, then most talking heads expound
on TV or the radio. Forum members are indeed lucky to be able
to tap into this valuable source of "uncommon " common sense.
Camelot
just because they are a big boy with the Central Banks will the FED bail them out....THEN what?
NOTHING can bail THAT out.
PS codhook "ride-on" with your educational statement. the problem is not the teachers but the lack of parental support and bloated beuracracy(sp) in the educational system "parenting" our children. i do not believe any BS about not being able to be involved with kids schooling (work, money, time etc is a BS excuse) kids should be numero uno and sadly they are on not for most "families" these days.
<< <i>
<< <i>I dont intend to sound like a doom and gloomer. Much like Cladkings thinking, we are a very powerful and intelligent nation with vast natural and human resources. We will pull through this, but in so much as the present two youngest generations have not had to sacrifice or deal with extreme hardship as the elder two generations have, I feel our time may be due.
Our social structure is much different today than it was in the 30s, 40s, 50s and we may find out of which mettle we are made. >>
if you ask me the depression generation does not post on this board.
they are quite old if not dead. if you grew up during WWII right up to
the vietnam war, in my opinion, you had it very easy.
for example, where i grew up in michigan, i will use my uncles as an
example. they all worked for GM or another large company which needed
factory employees. All their buddies got good paying jobs with as little
as a drop out high school education. They have pensions paying
out to this day. They had very good timing to raise a family.
Now take the current generations. highly educated yet jobs are scarce
for many majors and pay rates do not keep up with inflation. pensions
really do not exist for us. we find social security to be laughable and
probably will not exist for us. we have earned every penny and as
always older generations scoff at it.
just because you see some overweight kids playing video games
does not stereotype a generation. and heck, it was the kids who
dreamed up those video games into a multi billion dollar arena.
one has to take comments with a grain of salt.. but please...
get off my lawn!
also, we are reaping the results of the past few generations.
thanks a lot! stupid hippies. >>
Interesting..... you say not to stereotype a generation (when refering to yours) but then you take a broad brush to paint my generation as stupid hippies. And saying we had it easy. If you are half way serious, then the statements you have made certainly point out your immaturity.
Yeah, right... I've had it easy. Let's see..... I grew up in a tiny 5 room house (less than 900 square feet for a family of 7). We had no indoor plumbing, no hot water, and our heat was a wood stove. I had to pay my own way through college. Anything I've made throughout my life I have earned on my own.
I've paid social security all my life.... and it has been a significant amount. When I am finally ready to retire (if I retire) in another 10 years or so, yeah, right..... I'll be very lucky if I get any of it back at all. Yet you seem to place the blame for the problem on my entire generation, when we too are the victims of the crooks in washington. Thanks.
Like you said.... one has to take comments with a grain of salt.. but please...
I'll stay off your lawn.... but you stay off of mine also.
what you described of your life was the norm for MANY americans
decades ago. why do you think it was somehow special to just you?
what is funny you miss my point of sarcasm. every generation thinks
this of the others. it is typical of age.
get off my lawn is the proverbial old man saying to kids.
times change and comparing yourself to the current generation
and stating we were this and that is quite laughable.
people are people. nothing has changed about us since 1776. :-P
greed, lust, pride, and all the rest are staples of our lives.
oh and btw, who should kids blame this mess on if not the past generations? who indeed?
anyway, you took my comments so personally. i blamed a generation
and you think i am attacking you directly. such pride! such pride!
just because they are a big boy with the Central Banks will the FED bail them out....THEN what?
NOTHING can bail THAT out.
From the SLV iShares Prospectus, "The trustee is The Bank of New York and the custodian is JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., London Branch. The agreement between the trust and the custodian is governed by English law.
"The trustee is responsible for the day-to-day administration of the trust. The responsibilities of the trustee include (1) processing orders for the creation and redemption of Baskets; (2) coordinating with the custodian the receipt and delivery of silver transferred to, or by, the trust in connection with each issuance and redemption of Baskets; (3) calculating the net asset value and the adjusted net asset value of the trust on each business day; and (4) selling the trust's silver as needed to cover the trust's expenses.........."
Also, "The custodian is responsible for safekeeping the silver owned by the trust. The custodian is appointed by the trustee and is responsible for any loss of silver to the trustee only.........Because the holders of iShares are not parties to the custodian agreement, their claims against the custodian may be limited........"
My comments:
I don't see anything that guarantees any type of 1:1 relationship between the amount of silver held by the custodian and the market value of the shares issued by the trust. Just an observation.
Any physical silver is being held in England and is at least one legal entity removed from the issuer of the trust, so any claims are already an extra step down the list of claimants in the event of a bankruptcy filing. If actual fraud is involved, just forget it, imo.
Further down, I note some addtional interesting things:
"An investment in iShares is:
Backed by silver held by the custodian on behalf of the trust. The iShares are backed by silver, identified on the custodian's books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the trust and held by the custodian in England and other locations that may be authorized in the future.
As accessible and easy to handle as any other investment in shares. Retail investors may purchase and sell iShares through traditional brokerage accounts at prices expected to be less than the amount required for currently existing means of investing in physical silver. iShares are eligible for margin accounts......"
My comments:
Um, I can't decide why the custodians would need to have both allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the trust, unless the trust for some reason was engaging in arbitrage in the silver market or something like that. I mean, who's money is allocated and who's isn't? If the trust runs into financial difficulties, are the allocated and unallocated accounts somehow treated differently?
And, the biggie - why and how would the trust offer margin accounts, if it is holding physical silver in the correct amounts for each shareholder? Whose money are they playing with? It appears that they may be taking a lesson from the U.S. Govt, and playing margin trades with shareholder money. Does anyone see it differently?
There's alot more in the prospectus, and some of these questions might be answered in more detail, so I will offer other excerpts if I see anything else interesting.......
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>this may have been questioned a page or two up, but isn't JPMorgan / Chase supposidly(sp) one of the largest holders of silver (physical) in the SLV fund? what happens when if/ THEY need to liquidate and OMG they only have , say 45% of what they are supposed to have in the fund???
just because they are a big boy with the Central Banks will the FED bail them out....THEN what?
NOTHING can bail THAT out.
PS codhook "ride-on" with your educational statement. the problem is not the teachers but the lack of parental support and bloated beuracracy(sp) in the educational system "parenting" our children. i do not believe any BS about not being able to be involved with kids schooling (work, money, time etc is a BS excuse) kids should be numero uno and sadly they are on not for most "families" these days. >>
57"un"loaded
Not sure what "educational statement" I ever made and not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing, but for FWIW, I believe most parents today view the school system as a glorified babysitter. Many parents are not interested in their own children, because they are too interested in themselves.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
would survive any economic distress that might
befall the Nation. I do not know if it is because of
what folks learn from the Forum, or, because the
Forum attracts people who are thoughtful and
self reliant.
It seems to me that coin collectors have an innate
sense of value ,as well as an appreciation for precious
metals.Further, in order to follow the normal business
cycles of the coin market, one is automatically involved
with other cycles involving stocks and real estate markets.
No one is able to call the top or the bottom of any
market with any degree of accuracy, however, Forum
members seem able to prepare themselves against the
most severe of economic difficulties.
This Forum probably contains more collective common
sense, as to economics, then most talking heads expound
on TV or the radio. Forum members are indeed lucky to be able
to tap into this valuable source of "uncommon " common sense.
Well stated and in paragraph form. omg
It is always darkest before the dawn. NOW is the time to start thinking about where to go while everyone else is just about to panic.
There is an old investment philosophy...............Buy when blood is running in the streets. It's getting close.
I'd be buying banking stock then if that's how you fell. Really this board doesn't even represent 1% of the way Americans feel. Joe Public is trying to pay some bills but they have no idea of the scope of the problem. We just went though a roaring 20's for a couple of decades. I think I'd wait until something happens bad before I used that quote because we will come out of it. This crowd on this thread is the leading edge and I don't think many of us are willing to bail even though most have at least trippled our money. I sure don't need any more dollars I agree with Sinclair the dollar will be .52 before this is over.
by James Turk"
“2.7 Substitution of Silver: With your prior approval (in consultation with the Sponsor), we [i.e., Morgan Chase] may substitute other Bullion for Bullion held in the Allocated Account, provided that there is no change in the total number of troy ounces of Silver held in the Allocated Account.”
Hmmm..... wonder what the 'other Bullion' may be? Could it be.... paper representing unallocated silver from an undisclosed 'sub custodian'? Someone like.... Bear Stearns?
"2.6 Reversal of entries: "We [i.e., Morgan Chase] at all times reserve the right to reverse any provisional or erroneous entries to the Account with effect back-valued to the date upon which the final or correct entry (or no entry) should have been made.”"
Hmmm.... they reserve the right to change their bookkeeping entries? Now why would they ever want to do that??
SLV_loopholes
it's too early to buy.
Do you remeber 1982? Bank America was 6 bucks a share. So many opportunities.....so few funds. I could only afford a thousand shares. I had only been out in the working world for a few years.
If anyone considers this thread cutting edge..............
Cladking -- I'd be very curious to hear your thoughts on fixing education? It seems that the solution is difficult to achieve because it requires (a) a substantial increase in funding, which so-called conservatives are unwilling to allocate, and (b) "deregulation" and greater free market activities in education, which so-called liberals are unwilling to accept. Fixing education requires true bipartisanship -- that is, accepting aspects to the fix that may seem to go against one's basic political philosophy.
(Alan Greenspan, in his autobiography, essentially agrees that education is the primary potential obstacle to our ongoing prosperity. He also argues quite convincingly that education is the primary driver of disparity in wealth in the US)
JPM
1.4 TRILL in assets
76.9 TRILL in total derivatives (55:1 leverage over assets)
67.6 TRILL in total interest rate derivatives
53.9 TRILL in swaps (if credit default swaps - generally risky)
12.5 TRILL in OTC derivatives (the riskiest kind)
Bank of New York
102 BILL in assets
933 BILL in total derivatives
350 BILL in OTC derivatives
348 BILL in swaps
Yeah, these are the guys I want behind my silver ETF.
roadrunner
<< <i>"The educational system is so easy to fix that we'll probably fail. Why fix it while everyone profits from the status quo?"
Cladking -- I'd be very curious to hear your thoughts on fixing education? It seems that the solution is difficult to achieve because it requires (a) a substantial increase in funding, which so-called conservatives are unwilling to allocate, and (b) "deregulation" and greater free market activities in education, which so-called liberals are unwilling to accept. Fixing education requires true bipartisanship -- that is, accepting aspects to the fix that may seem to go against one's basic political philosophy.
(Alan Greenspan, in his autobiography, essentially agrees that education is the primary potential obstacle to our ongoing prosperity. He also argues quite convincingly that education is the primary driver of disparity in wealth in the US) >>
The quick and dirty means of fixing it is to raise teacher pay about 30% while
making it merit based, running urban schools in shifts year round, and reducing
school funding by at least 35% while turning control over to local government.
Everybody in the system has to be responsible for outcomes rather than inten-
tions. Classes should be split up into 8 or 10 week blocks so those who don't
master the material can be held back to repeat it. Disruptive and violent stu-
dents should be left behind. Get them out of the schools! We've got reform
schools that can work with them and juvi can handle the worst.
If this doesn't work within a few months then much more draconian measures
are both possible and preferable to the erosion of our institutions and murder
of our young people. Children can learn how to read in only a few weeks so
there is simply no excuse to turn out illiterates or to promise future results.
I would think that betting on OTC derivatives would be somewhat like betting on high school basketball for big money. That's an incredible amount of money to have out there blowing in the wind.
I think it would be unrealistic to expect more than a 50% recovery rate on those Over-the-counter derivatives. More than likely less than 10-20%. What counter-parties are going to be able to pay up?
More than likely they will (or are already) screaming foul and are lining up lawsuits to take on JPM, GS, Merrill, Citi, Lehman and others. I don't think anyone is gonna pay these big boys a dime without a fight and years in court. See you in court buster!
Over on JSMineset.com (see link below) Monty Guild gave a nice summary of the Bear Sterns mess. The conclusion is the same thing he and Sinclair have been saying for several years:
THE SHORT ANSWER TO WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS IS MORE INFLATION, HIGHER GOLD PRICES, HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES AND A LOT LOWER PRICES FOR BONDS. ....don't count on a stock market resurgence or commodities collapse anytime soon. If you think commodity prices are high now....hang around a while.
roadrunner
Rate Cuts, How much?
I got a feeling they won't do exactly what is expected on Tuesday.
While they want to give the stock market a lift, they don't want to assist gold either. I'd guess no more than 1/2 pt which should stall gold and oil, and keep the stock market even.
Things must be reaching a boiling point to elicit articles like this on selection Sunday (go Huskies!)
With feel-good articles like this - what's not to like about gold??? by Bob Moriarty
Bear Funds listing
roadrunner
I have a feeling that SLV and I will part ways. It's been a straight shot up recently. I will probably clean house tomorrow and start over with Intermediate Treasuries.
Maybe I'll bite the bullet (again) and take more out of my IRA & SEP (taxes & penalties, again).
All this talk has got me back into defensive mode. Even though it's play money, I don't want to lose it - the last thing I need is to become another of Hillary's dependants.
Side note - has anyone else noticed (with colors and all) that our currency looks more and more like the old Monopoly Money?
I knew it would happen.
i have strong feeling a lot will happen, starting tomorrow (starting with the prelude in Asian markets, later today)
stay tuned and hang on to tangibles
Which bank is going to follow the Bear?
The biggest threat to our way of life is the encumbered and broken education-
al system. We are fast running out of time to repair it. If we fail we will be a
very dangerous and very poor third world country within two generations.
The educational system is so easy to fix that we'll probably fail. Why fix it while
everyone profits from the status quo? >>
RR,
I think it's been a couple of years since talk show host Neil Boortz exclaimed that teachers unions were more detrimental to this country than Islamic Fascists. While I can't really get my head around such a comparison...I understand the intent. I have four kids in private school and see a huge difference in their enthusiasm, respect for God and Country, and respect for elders and eagerness to learn. Whenever we do events that include some public school kids we see the disrespect, the nasty language and the constant disruption. I know there are good kids in public school but they and their parents have to really work at it to not get sucked into "popular-culture-world."
Just get rid of the Dept. of Education and start over with competition in the private section...I know it wont happen anytime soon.
Ren
<< <i>Heard people talking about the gold price in the coffee shop today ...that usually means we are about ready for a blow off top and then the game will be up , possibly almost time for a dollar bottom?? >>
I saw an interesting commercial last night while watching the Austrailian Gran Prix. The commercial was about GoldKit. Call and get a pouch to put in your old gold jewelry and send it in and get cash. Then the commercial goes to happy clients that say "I sent away my old gold and got all this cash and now I can go on vacation."
Ren
SARS Memories Haunt Hong Kong as Flu Outbreak Closes Schools
Bird Flu: The Untold Story
O.K. Boys dump those brokerage and Bank shares cause here we go!
“JPMorgan to Buy Bear for $2 a Share
Sunday March 16, 7:36 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno and Madlen Read, AP Business Writers
JPMorgan Says It Will Buy Ailing Bear Stearns in a Deal Valued at $236.2 Million
NEW YORK (AP) -- JPMorgan Chase said Sunday it will acquire rival Bear Stearns in a deal valued at $236.2 million, a stunning collapse for one of the world's largest and most venerable investment banks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the $2 a share, all-stock deal has received the required approvals from the federal government and the Federal Reserve. Bear Stearns shares close Friday at $30 a share.
The Fed will provide special financing to JPMorgan Chase for the deal, JPMorgan Chase said. The central bank has agreed to fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns' less liquid assets.
At almost the same time as the deal for control of Bear Stearns was announced, the Federal Reserve said it approved a cut in its lending rate to banks to 3.25 percent from 3.50 percent and created another lending facility for big investment banks.”
oops that 200k put me over...lol
roadrunner
Not pretty.
No where to go to avoid this either.
OPEC made a BIG mistake when they decided not to raise production. From here on the oil producers' total inflation-adjusted return will drop as currencies depreciate and consumption drops. They will discover that the reason the Stone Age ended wasn't because mankind ran out of stones!
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
<< <i>They will discover that the reason the Stone Age ended wasn't because mankind ran out of stones! >>
Gold in overseas trading .... +$29.30 oz $1,028
Silver......................................+$.58 $21.17
what caused gold to TANK from $860 so FAST and then rebound in 1980?
kitco chart supplied
<< <i>my question of the day.....
what caused gold to TANK from $860 so FAST and then rebound in 1980?
kitco chart supplied
Wow! $550 to 850 down to 500 then up to 700...in one year...what a trade!
Ren
What bank is next to scare the "poop" out of the lemmings.
What worries me now is that they are on record to do whatever it takes (with our taxpaying money) to avert a credit crisis until...oh, I don't know, January 2009(?)
R
First off, the most important education a child will EVER get is from their parents. They will model themselves upon the parents. (I realize there are exceptions, but this is generally true). Many parents just let their children veg in front of the TV or a game station. Here are two simple and yet important things that parents should do. 1) (And MOST importantly) Parents should read to their children. What percentage of kids in this country have their parents read to them at night? This teaches them the basic importance (and fun) of being literate. 2) How many parents take kids and feed their native curiousity by doing such things as explaining how things work (be it details of a machine, or how you get sunsets)? This sets children on the path of being mechanical engineers or scientists or whatever.
Second, as to public schools, it should be remembered they are PUBLIC schools. Remember what Samuel Clemens (that's Mark Twain to those illiterates out there) said, "First God made an idiot for practice, and then He made a School Board". Every chowderhead or lobbying groups of chowderheads can affect what occurs in schools. Unfortunately IMO the worst affect of this is the lowering of discipline... "Poor Johnny should not be put in the corner, it's not fair". Scr_w that!!! Johnny should be sent out of the room. If you do not have control of a class it does not matter how well you can teach a subject, in effect you will always be trying to put out fires first (sometimes quite literally). I find CladKings comments an exercise in mental laxity, <<"The quick and dirty means of fixing it is to raise teacher pay about 30% while
making it merit based, running urban schools in shifts year round, and reducing
school funding by at least 35% while turning control over to local government. ">> (Anyone notice the inherent problem here?), but he is dead on about weeding out the troublemakers. Most kids are decent people, but they are willing to see what they can get away with, and if they feel that they can get away with murder, then there will ALWAYS be someone in the class who will push it. A MAJOR difference between public and private schools is that in private schools a kid can be booted out relatively easily, while for public schools a kid really has to work at it to get the boot.
I FULLY support merit pay, but a simple question is how do you determine it? Do you say, "test results"? Well, then you have the "teach to the test" form of teaching, where kids memorize lots of stuff, but can't necessarily think about the material. The most succesful teachers I've seen all have fairly idiosyncratic/personal forms of teaching and I strongly suspect that the test results produced by their students would be wildly diverse... yet the students, for the most part, have a good grasp of the material the teacher is teaching them.
I also support school vouchers. IMO some schools are "bankrupt" and should close up shop.
Finally, as to the teachers union. As of in all things Union, it was created because there were problems between the management (administrators etc.) and the workers (teachers). Don't fool yourself that these issues don't still exist. I have seen several cases where the administration pulled ABSOLUTE BULLSH1T on teachers, and it was only the union that saved the teacher's tailfeathers. The problem is more of one of who is going into the MANAGEMENT positions in the Union. These are the ones that need to be changed, if you are going to change the Unions position on vouchers, merit pay etc., and as of in many things dealing with esoteric elections, not many people (in this case the teachers) care about, or pay attention to the positions of, who they are voting for.
Since this whole thread is about predictions, the prediction I'm going to make is that unfortunately none of this will change, and in all likelihood it will get worse.
U.S. Type Set
<< <i>
Since this whole thread is about predictions, the prediction I'm going to make is that unfortunately none of this will change, and in all likelihood it will get worse. >>
And this is the most frightening thing today... ...you're probably right.
Everything related to education has become an institution in itself; text book
manufacturers put out politically correct crap that just happens to be full of fact-
ual errors. Even math texts have numerous errors because the editors are too
busy looking for PC than whether the content is consistent, accurate, or under-
standable. School boards tend to be the root of most local problems. They op-
erate under "procedure" which has been built up for decades and, obviously, is
not working. Students can't be flunked so many kids in the class simply don't un-
derstand the material. This is not a good learning atmosphere.
The problem with the schools is simply that what works to "learn" the kids doesn't
matter. What matters is that rules and regulations are followed. What matters is
that the administration gets paid and appear to address problems. What matters
is that most of the people finish the day without a shiv in the stomach.
The bar is simply not set high enough. Kids have a natural tendency to want to
learn and they'lll have fun at it if given their head. This means good teachers, few
rules, and consequences for good and bad behavior. Teachers aren't allowed to
run their classes in most places and students know there are no consequences if
everyone is afraid of them, their gangs, or their lawyers.
The problem in this country is that too much money is spent on education. We spend
multiples of other first world countries and have far worse results. Third world coun-
tries spend far less still and often have better results.
If we can't fix this problem then the long term outlook is very bleak. It won't be many
years before the trickle of foreign doctors and engineers returning to their homelands
becomes an exodus. We won't be able to even maintain what we have, far less build
on it!
This might be bullish for metals but it's very bearish for our way of life and the concept
of liberty.
To fix the education system (as mentioned before we spend a gigamountain of buks for slight returns) we have to begin using a system used in europe. If you are not promising after your second year of high school, it's off to trade school you go. Somehow our mtv generations seem to think that if they are going to work, they either need to be a ball star or a CEO and sweetheart, it just ain't that way. Somebody has to fix the cars, make the electronics, throw the pottery, make the clothing. We have devalued the regular work of our fathers in our society to where it no longer has any status and the jobs go begging so bad that they are in India now. We have very few tradesmen now, particularly those holding US citizenship. Regarding discipline problems in highschool, they must be countered by public ordinances that either put those people in a special place or regroove them till they get it.
Our education directors, our academic education leaders, our congress that funds this madness, our parents that don't have enough concern for their children to give a damn, they all have a hand in the rotten fruit that we keep trying to make a harvest from. We could quote stats, link reports, carry on like we could do something about it but ulitmatelly, it's about the schools. We have truly lost our way...the masses of people don't value education and have little benefits of the understanding that comes from learning. Here's how it goes: you find something you like to do, you learn about it and get pretty good at it, you charge people money to do it for them, you live happily ever after or at least you have a pretty good chance of at least having a chance.
<< <i>
What worries me now is that they are on record to do whatever it takes (with our taxpaying money) to avert a credit crisis until...oh, I don't know, January 2009(?)
R >>
yup, but sooner than later nothing will work
i don't think anyone in government wants to have the "D" word...carved on their tombstone other than "Died"
<< <i>my question of the day.....
what caused gold to TANK from $860 so FAST and then rebound in 1980?
kitco chart supplied
What happened is just simply that there were more sellers than buyers. When everyone has already bought, who are you going to sell yours to? Prices start to decline, everyone rushes to the same door, and prices collapse. Look at any internet stock chart in 2000 and you will see the same pattern as it is common in any bubble.
Chances are you will see a similiar pattern in the grain commodities and select currencies when those bubbles finally pop.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear