Just my opinion RR , I think we will see the stock market go down, a big push to strengthen the dollar, moving gold down, all of this in the very near term. No predictions after that as the volatility of all these markets are through the roof. You noticed I did not sell my GLD even though I think this gold market will sell off just a little. I did that last week and had to chase it, so if the market drops, I will just add to the position.
Oh, I went to some of the wholesale gold sites you all posted, GREAT sites.
Anyone who wants to start looking at adding bullion, the prices from these guys are very tight to the spot prices, whatever you want, Canadian, Australian, U.S., gold or silver.
I finally bought Peter Schiff’s book Crash Proof, an interesting read although we have discussed nearly everything in the book many moons before the book came out.
The one thing I have not figured out yet that that both Peter and Jim Sinclair both keep saying, is to move some cash into foreign currencies, just exactly how are we going to do that? They really never say.
America will of course survive, and in many ways come out stronger once it has thrown off its socialistic attitudes, which also means curing all the worlds’ ills. I still think term limits is a very big step in the right direction. Is there not someone out there that can really get this ball rolling? Gee if people can start Face Book, and My Space, you would think they could start a site to throw the bums out.
If you look at the reviews on the new Tom Cruise, Robert Redford, movie this weekend, “Lions for Lambs” the tide is already turning, all of the hundreds of public reviewers all said no more pink-o crap!
<< <i>"bridges were repaired by elves"...I KNEW that!
"all I want for Xmass is a ten ounce gold bar"...Yeah, baby.
Edited to add: Hey, what about inflation linked bonds? >>
Inflation linked bonds are linked to phony inflation number , They should link them to the price of gas/milk but that will never happen. Also in reply to the last few posts , A bear market is essentially an up market more than 90% of the time , with some major moves down less than 10% of the time. One can invest in a bear just as easily as investing in a bull, as long as you are not a buy and hold type cos you will get eaten.
I while back I linked an LA Times article that basically illustrated how a weakening dollar allowed US manufactruing companies to become competitive overseas, thus creating jobs domestically, which I think would in turn stand to lend real value to the stock market - according to your analysis, is such a scenario not possible or too insignificant to avert the "meltdown" that you see coming?
The cartel has already shown tremendous weakness in trying to turn gold at various points from $700 to $830. They have only been successful at $850 so far. They've picked some of the weaker gold stocks and have naked sold shares at the end of the trading days. That's about the only weapon they have since selling gold bullion is out of the question. Where would they get it? The UK sold 50% of its gold at $260/oz to support the dollar, they won't be selling any more of it imo for further support. Find another patsy.
Another bump in the liquidity crisis and they'll have to fall back again to protect $882. They aren't going to be able to keep the dollar strong until the November 2008 elections. Gold will probably find its way to $1000-1050 by that time.
If the stock market tanks for a while where will that money go? It seems to me that natural resources and PM's would be a logical choice for some it...and strong competing currencies for the rest.
Coins did fine during the stagflation environment of 1974-1980. That was a recession, in everything but tangible assets. The recession during the early 1990's was anything but stagflationary and most all assets got hammered at that time.
Rising interest rates (up to 10%) did nothing to stem the rise of gold into 1979. It clearly shows that gold was happy to rise against rising rates for 4 years...debunking the myth that the opposite can occur. For more detail on this read Jim Sinclair as he mentions this point at least once per week. This is why whatever action the FED takes with rates right now (up or down) they will be ineffective for quite some time in turning gold.
We have a winner. Someone has finally figured out my corrolation with gold!!!
I've mentioned before to be wary of the YEN carry trade. Today the YEN is at 109.25 and commodities are tanking.
<< <i>Anyone who wants to start looking at adding bullion, the prices from these guys are very tight to the spot prices, whatever you want, Canadian, Australian, U.S., gold or silver. >>
GS or RR or anyone, I have been buying bullion for a few years along with pre '33 gold. The thing that scares me is if the Govt. says "okay gold is now recalled". Now my buying price is shot because they are going to pay me next to nothing for my recalled gold bullion. My question is WILL they do this again, or can they do this again ? If I read correctly on JS mineset, he believes this will not happen. There are those that say "well they can't take the pre 33 gold". Why ? They make/break the rules. Your thoughts ?
There are those that say "well they can't take the pre 33 gold". sURRENDER ACT OF '33
PARAGRAPH 2.B
Edited to add: The previous order doesn't preclude them from changing the order or just tax the bejezus out of any transaction...but as one astute member mentioned here: (paraphrased) Slap a bezel around a saint and you've got jewelry and it's all good.
<< <i>There are those that say "well they can't take the pre 33 gold". sURRENDER ACT OF '33
PARAGRAPH 2.B >>
loopholes are wonderful :
except the following:
(b) Gold coin and gold certificates in an amount not exceeding in the aggregate $100.00 belonging to any one person; and gold coins having recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins.
As others have said in this debate numerous times before, it would be hard for the governement to render illegal the very bullion coins it has been selling for the past twenty years; especially given the influence globalization has had on the economy.
If supposing they did try to confescate gold, however, I am sure the government would try and find some way to make it equitable or appealing - remember, in 1933 you got your full $20.00 an ounce which at the time was a fair price.
<< <i>There are those that say "well they can't take the pre 33 gold". Why ? They make/break the rules. Your thoughts ? >>
The government will do whatever it is they determine is in their (not your) best interests. Existing laws are irrelevant- they'll either change or ignore them as it suits their purposes. Any benefit for you that might come from their rulings is purely incidental.
Keep your gold purchases to yourself. Consider that most people did not turn their gold in back in 1933. Maybe only 1/3 did. That generation knew better. They were keeping gold for the very reason the govt wanted it back.
If supposing they did try to confescate gold, however, I am sure the government would try and find some way to make it equitable or appealing - remember, in 1933 you got your full $20.00 an ounce which at the time was a fair price.
The FULL $20 was a sham considering that as soon as the Govt got the gold, they raised the price of gold 40% overnight, in effect devaluing the dollar by 40% and toasting all those who had saved gold to prevent just an occurrence.
Most of what I had was not cheap, mostly high tech shares, and calls, at 52-week highs. I sold because I am not riding this horse down the mountain.
There are times when people (guru's?) are just plain wrong about the markets.
And there are times when people (guru's) are intentionally wrong in their public comments (which is all I have access to) because they want to purchase shares on the cheap.
Figuring out when people have intentionally told others to Sell, is pretty profitable.
<< <i>Keep your gold purchases to yourself. Consider that most people did not turn their gold in back in 1933. Maybe only 1/3 did. >>
Right, but in 1933 they didn't have electronic tracking of your purchases. Now they do ! Unless you purchased for cash or black market they already know what you have. I agree, as well as others, the man can and will come calling when he decides to want the gold [back]. Question is what will I do ???
I agree, as well as others, the man can and will come calling when he decides to want the gold [back]. Question is what will I do ???
I am sorry to hear that, during a senior moment, you left your gold on the front seat of your car and forgot to lock the door when you went into the store.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The major difference between now and 1933 is that in 1933 the dollar was linked to gold. There is no link now, so all the old rationales for having a gold reserve are technically gone.
“GS or RR or anyone, I have been buying bullion for a few years along with pre '33 gold. The thing that scares me is if the Govt. says "okay gold is now recalled". Now my buying price is shot because they are going to pay me next to nothing for my recalled gold bullion.”
FREAK,
I personally am not to paranoid about all this, but one can never be too careful. I think we should all keep in mind that this government is capable of doing anything to protect our socialist system, and their big paper issuer buddies. If lying comes that easy, stealing might come next.
Here is what I have been preaching here for several years, and I have not changed my mind.
First buy certified coins, because they cannot be faked, and also they can be claimed as a coin collection. I buy U.S. certified, and World coins also as this is where I think the biggest increase in collectors will come from in the future.
I will say this again; I have a friend in Shanghai that is telling me they are already faking gold coins there with 6 layers of gold on lead.
Second, I buy Canadian maple leafs as bullion. I do this because I can get to Canada on a long vacation, and convert if I need to.
One can also play the paper market in GLD and mining shares if one wants fast liquidity, buying on dips of course. Profits from these can be used for living expenses, and to pay down debt, so one does not have to sell ones coins.
The major difference between now and 1933 is that in 1933 the dollar was linked to gold. There is no link now, so all the old rationales for having a gold reserve are technically gone
There is no official link. Unofficially, gold still carries lots of weight in the monetary system....enough so that the PPT massages the gold market at times to adjust the dollar. The "published" rational may be gone....the physical link is most certainly still intact.
This drop in Gold just happened to fast, and the Canadian dollar is crashing against the dollar. Something is up?
Nothing is up. The Canadian dollar appreciated so fast the last couple of weeks it was bound to go down.
About 6 months ago I had a chance to talk with one of Alberta's leading Oil economists and I asked him "where do you think the dollar will go in relation to the US dollar?".
His answer was "we value the Canadian dollar at par with the US dollar at $100 a barrel Oil."
Which makes sense because a lot of the financial 'geniuses' on TV say that at present levels of oil ($90 a barrel), the US dollar should still be valued a little higher than the CDN dollar.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
It is funny how people run around scratching their heads when something doesn't continue to climb or fall day after day like this. No commodity's valuation is sound without firm restests of support and resistance. We are still in the new tier trading range and unless the underlying economics change fundamentally there's no expectation of a return to the lower range except as perhaps a temporary meandering. Gold and silver still aren't remarkably high anyway. Would have thought the day trading hysteria would have been worked out after the tech bubble burst but there are apparently people who still think they can consistently beat the market through timing, despite the mountain of contrary evidence that such a system works for even the best.
What just happened. I think the gold cartel (incl PPT) took advantage of a weak trading day in the US and starting hammering in Asia last night. The selling triggered black boxes to sell off. As stops are hit, more selloff. No gold is changing hands, it's all paper trading. And you can bet that even the full amount of paper is not going to trade (ie naked short selling). A nicely engineered move by the PPT and Co. to prop up the dollar and soften this latest PM's run. Maybe it's for the good. We'll take a small beating now to allow the bull to run back at $850 again within a few weeks to a few months. My guess would be on the shorter side of this range as I dont' see how TPTB can avoid the mess coming later this week with FASB 157.
Article by Sinclair on what is coming later this week:
The commercial paper market ended last week in full disarray.
November 15th is approaching quickly. It is this date where supposed real valuations, according to accounting standards, have to be made on value-less class 3 assets. Can you imagine they now call that crap class 3 assets rather than over the counter valueless specific performance credit and credit default garbage paper? That simply cannot be done without casing a disaster in major financial entities with major systemic destabilization.
In conversation last evening with the man who I respect most as the world's top gun of fundamentals, he feels the mark to model losses recently announced might well be less than 15% of the real loss. How do you mark to a real market when the real market is zero?
The technical crowd might like to sell the Euro, Cando and Gold, but they are terribly wrong.
This date of November 15th is a day when a nuclear accounting bomb will be dropped on Establishment Financial entities. This accounting requirement demands truth on the value of their structured products, also known as derivatives. One wonders if the accounting standards have any clue how terrible this situation is.
Operation "White Noise" trucks along. This effort has taken full advantage of the lack of knowledge of the masses who feel this is all a mortgage mess. It is not. It is the failure of complex credit and credit default over the counter derivatives created on securitized mortgages themselves. That is an OTC derivative on top of derivatives themselves.
$400 TRILLION coming at ya eventually. For now, it's just $20 TRILL.
"remember, in 1933 you got your full $20.00 an ounce which at the time was a fair price".
"The FULL $20 was a sham considering that as soon as the Govt got the gold, they raised the price of gold 40% overnight, in effect devaluing the dollar by 40% and toasting all those who had saved gold to prevent just an occurrence".
That is exaclty how my father felt as a young adult in the 1930's. I recall him telling me how the government order that citizens turn in their gold, at $20.00 an ounce, and then, when it was surrendered, the Roosevelt Administration turned around and increased the price of gold to $35.00 an ounce.
<< <i>So it is physical buying when the price goes up but paper selling when it goes down? LOL >>
India is seeing the highest-ever demand for gold this year.
"The strengthening of rupee against US dollar and rising consumer spending have raised India's gold demand by as much as 72 per cent in the first half of the year"link
I know, I know, its just some backwater country with a billion gold nuts. If it's not "Wall Street USA" it doesn't count. After all Goldman Sachs can naked sell short a few hundred contracts and it negates a full weeks sales in India. Good thing they will never have to produce the millions of ounces they sold but don't own.
At least they hope they dont have to. They don't even have a goldmine.
Looks like a trap to me. Also, that fairly public short story a couple of weeks ago about the paper/metal scam that became exposed when the client sued for his money or his metal might have scared the hell out of people that had their retirement money in paper pm with some name brand investment companys. I suspect that we will hear more stories like this soon...storage fees---HA, the very gall.
This paper gold thing is not over, it's just beginning and the people trying to manipulate the market in gold to save their paper are going to take a test just to see if they can indeed pull this off. Throw in a little forward selling of reserves by the suppliers and add that to the paper gold and we have the makings of another version of the SIV's. It wouldn't suprise me if those forward sales were actually put into SIV's along with the paper gold and they probably got at least an AA rating...HA!
In case no one noticed there is a large population of what were previously third world nations coming on board now to help add some international spread to the middle class. They want gold and they are buying it as their situation improves. You can be fairly damn sure, the third world middle class are not going to be taking paper for gold.
Got PM? Pound sand frat boys, see you on the other side!
MY thinking too , I sold about 10% today (stocks that is). Problem is I dont know where to put the cash. Im already 50% PM , besides my 401 gives me great choices, stock or bond funds.
Just think it might be time, particularly when the new "mark to market" rules kick in on Thursday.
An up stock market is just a natural result of a falling dollar and even moreso, increasing inflation. In the past inflation has crippled good businesses while propping up some failing ones and this time will be the same but a lot of inflation will show up in the profits of both good and bad companies this time. It will cause imbalances and as always it will cause more harm than good but the net effect on profits won't be that bad. The market will try (and fail) to keep up with inflation for a couple more years before it breaks out to the up-side.
It's probably dangerous to be completely out of the stock market but be prepared to jump in with both feet. The trends seem to all remain firmly in place.
(a bull trap is an up move in a down market and a bear trap is a down move in a bull market.) Bulls jump in believing the trend has turned but it proves to be a trap.)
<< <i>Trade it and take advantage. I got 10% on VMW and CROX in 24 hours. >>
Last week I made 100% in less than minute on a table in Vegas. I don't see much difference with this market.
Oh wait, I'm wrong. The big boys don't manipulate the game in Vegas as well as they do on Wall Street. They actually have real government regulators in Vegas.
You know that new accounting rule that was supposed to take affect in the morning FASB 157?
Well it has now been postponed for one year, because it was just to scary to let the public know the truth.
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks and brokers face as much as $100 billion of writedowns because of Level 3 accounting rules.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board's rule 157 makes it more difficult for companies to avoid putting market prices on their hardest-to-value securities, known as Level 3 assets.
<< <i>Trade it and take advantage. I got 10% on VMW and CROX in 24 hours. >>
Last week I made 100% in less than minute on a table in Vegas. I don't see much difference with this market.
Oh wait, I'm wrong. The big boys don't manipulate the game in Vegas as well as they do on Wall Street. They actually have real government regulators in Vegas. >>
I haven't seen any news of the cancellation of the FAS 157/159 rules on any metals website. If it were postponed you'd think it would be a hot topic. I have seen some requests or suggestions to delay the deadline. Frankly the rule has been out there long enough such that no one should have had a problem complying. If the big banks who have the most at risk have already tabulated their numbers, then why not the smaller banks/companies?
It's probably dangerous to be completely out of the stock market
I guess if you wait long enough, anything will make its way into print.
Note that being completely out of the stock market over the past 6 years would have been a good thing for many people.....esp if they were in PM's or other tangible assets. Being completely out of the market will be a great thing sooner than we think.
<< <i>I haven't seen any news of the cancellation of the FAS 157/159 rules on any metals website. If it were postponed you'd think it would be a hot topic. I have seen some requests or suggestions to delay the deadline. Frankly the rule has been out there long enough such that no one should have had a problem complying. If the big banks who have the most at risk have already tabulated their numbers, then why not the smaller banks/companies?
It's probably dangerous to be completely out of the stock market
I guess if you wait long enough, anything will make its way into print.
Note that being completely out of the stock market over the past 6 years would have been a good thing for many people.....esp if they were in PM's or other tangible assets. Being completely out of the market will be a great thing sooner than we think.
roadrunner >>
There are lots of stocks that have done pretty well the last couple years.
I believe I suggested things like basic materials stocks, European stocks and currency, inflation bonds and the like earlier in this thread. This would have proven a fairly well diversified (with precious metals) and highly pro- fitable position the last few years. Dividend stocks have generally done reasonably well.
This isn't to say that one should always be in the stock market. There are brief periods where the market is overly risky across the board and longer periods where many segments are overly risky. Usually there are some segments which present good opportunity and these are a good way to stay in the market.
The stock market will go up like a rocket one of these days (it's years away probably), you don't want to be sitting on the sidelines when it happens. It is probably wise to never get under 5% or 10% in the market. The last few years have been a time to be slowly increasing this. Jump in with both feet right before inflation peaks. This will be when everyone else is buying gold. Sell it to them and buy stocks.
Comments
I think we will see the stock market go down, a big push to strengthen the dollar, moving gold down, all of this in the very near term. No predictions after that as the volatility of all these markets are through the roof. You noticed I did not sell my GLD even though I think this gold market will sell off just a little. I did that last week and had to chase it, so if the market drops, I will just add to the position.
Oh,
I went to some of the wholesale gold sites you all posted, GREAT sites.
Anyone who wants to start looking at adding bullion, the prices from these guys are very tight to the spot prices, whatever you want, Canadian, Australian, U.S., gold or silver.
I finally bought Peter Schiff’s book Crash Proof, an interesting read although we have discussed nearly everything in the book many moons before the book came out.
The one thing I have not figured out yet that that both Peter and Jim Sinclair both keep saying, is to move some cash into foreign currencies, just exactly how are we going to do that? They really never say.
America will of course survive, and in many ways come out stronger once it has thrown off its socialistic attitudes, which also means curing all the worlds’ ills. I still think term limits is a very big step in the right direction. Is there not someone out there that can really get this ball rolling? Gee if people can start Face Book, and My Space, you would think they could start a site to throw the bums out.
If you look at the reviews on the new Tom Cruise, Robert Redford, movie this weekend, “Lions for Lambs” the tide is already turning, all of the hundreds of public reviewers all said no more pink-o crap!
<< <i>"bridges were repaired by elves"...I KNEW that!
"all I want for Xmass is a ten ounce gold bar"...Yeah, baby.
Edited to add: Hey, what about inflation linked bonds? >>
Inflation linked bonds are linked to phony inflation number , They should link them to the price of gas/milk but that will never happen.
Also in reply to the last few posts , A bear market is essentially an up market more than 90% of the time , with some major moves down less than 10% of the time.
One can invest in a bear just as easily as investing in a bull, as long as you are not a buy and hold type cos you will get eaten.
I while back I linked an LA Times article that basically illustrated how a weakening dollar allowed US manufactruing companies to become competitive overseas, thus creating jobs domestically, which I think would in turn stand to lend real value to the stock market - according to your analysis, is such a scenario not possible or too insignificant to avert the "meltdown" that you see coming?
~ Artist
>>>My Collection
The cartel has already shown tremendous weakness in trying to turn gold at various points from $700 to $830. They have only been successful at $850 so far. They've picked some of the weaker gold stocks and have naked sold shares at the end of the trading days.
That's about the only weapon they have since selling gold bullion is out of the question. Where would they get it? The UK sold 50% of its gold at $260/oz to support the dollar, they won't be selling any more of it imo for further support. Find another patsy.
Another bump in the liquidity crisis and they'll have to fall back again to protect $882. They aren't going to be able to keep the dollar strong until the November 2008 elections. Gold will probably find its way to $1000-1050 by that time.
If the stock market tanks for a while where will that money go? It seems to me that natural resources and PM's would be a logical choice for some it...and strong competing currencies for the rest.
Coins did fine during the stagflation environment of 1974-1980.
That was a recession, in everything but tangible assets. The recession during the early 1990's was anything but stagflationary and most all assets got hammered at that time.
roadrunner
We have a winner. Someone has finally figured out my corrolation with gold!!!
I've mentioned before to be wary of the YEN carry trade. Today the YEN is at 109.25 and commodities are tanking.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
I've mentioned before to be wary of the YEN carry trade. Today the YEN is at 109.25 and commodities are tanking. >>
The unwinding of positions is killing oil & the royal metals. (There is just not enough Yen in the world to tip the markets)
<< <i>Anyone who wants to start looking at adding bullion, the prices from these guys are very tight to the spot prices, whatever you want, Canadian, Australian, U.S., gold or silver. >>
GS or RR or anyone,
I have been buying bullion for a few years along with pre '33 gold. The thing that scares me is if the Govt. says "okay gold is now recalled". Now my buying price is shot because they are going to pay me next to nothing for my recalled gold bullion. My question is WILL they do this again, or can they do this again ? If I read correctly on JS mineset, he believes this will not happen. There are those that say "well they can't take the pre 33 gold". Why ? They make/break the rules. Your thoughts ?
Freak !
sURRENDER ACT OF '33
PARAGRAPH 2.B
Edited to add: The previous order doesn't preclude them from changing the order or just tax the bejezus out of any transaction...but as one astute member mentioned here: (paraphrased) Slap a bezel around a saint and you've got jewelry and it's all good.
<< <i>There are those that say "well they can't take the pre 33 gold".
sURRENDER ACT OF '33
PARAGRAPH 2.B >>
loopholes are wonderful :
except the following:
(b) Gold coin and gold certificates in an amount not exceeding in the aggregate $100.00 belonging to any one person; and gold coins having recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins.
If supposing they did try to confescate gold, however, I am sure the government would try and find some way to make it equitable or appealing - remember, in 1933 you got your full $20.00 an ounce which at the time was a fair price.
>>>My Collection
<< <i>There are those that say "well they can't take the pre 33 gold". Why ? They make/break the rules. Your thoughts ? >>
The government will do whatever it is they determine is in their (not your) best interests. Existing laws are irrelevant- they'll either change or ignore them as it suits their purposes. Any benefit for you that might come from their rulings is purely incidental.
That generation knew better. They were keeping gold for the very reason the govt wanted it back.
If supposing they did try to confescate gold, however, I am sure the government would try and find some way to make it equitable or appealing - remember, in 1933 you got your full $20.00 an ounce which at the time was a fair price.
The FULL $20 was a sham considering that as soon as the Govt got the gold, they raised the price of gold 40% overnight, in effect devaluing the dollar by 40% and toasting all those who had saved gold to prevent just an occurrence.
roadrunner
There are times when people (guru's?) are just plain wrong about the markets.
And there are times when people (guru's) are intentionally wrong in their public comments (which is all I have access to) because they want to purchase shares on the cheap.
Figuring out when people have intentionally told others to Sell, is pretty profitable.
<< <i>Keep your gold purchases to yourself. Consider that most people did not turn their gold in back in 1933. Maybe only 1/3 did. >>
Right, but in 1933 they didn't have electronic tracking of your purchases. Now they do ! Unless you purchased for cash or black market they already know what you have. I agree, as well as others, the man can and will come calling when he decides to want the gold [back]. Question is what will I do ???
I am sorry to hear that, during a senior moment, you left your gold on the front seat of your car and forgot to lock the door when you went into the store.
I knew it would happen.
I have been buying bullion for a few years along with pre '33 gold. The thing that scares me is if the Govt. says "okay gold is now recalled". Now my buying price is shot because they are going to pay me next to nothing for my recalled gold bullion.”
FREAK,
I personally am not to paranoid about all this, but one can never be too careful. I think we should all keep in mind that this government is capable of doing anything to protect our socialist system, and their big paper issuer buddies. If lying comes that easy, stealing might come next.
Here is what I have been preaching here for several years, and I have not changed my mind.
First buy certified coins, because they cannot be faked, and also they can be claimed as a coin collection. I buy U.S. certified, and World coins also as this is where I think the biggest increase in collectors will come from in the future.
I will say this again; I have a friend in Shanghai that is telling me they are already faking gold coins there with 6 layers of gold on lead.
Second, I buy Canadian maple leafs as bullion. I do this because I can get to Canada on a long vacation, and convert if I need to.
One can also play the paper market in GLD and mining shares if one wants fast liquidity, buying on dips of course. Profits from these can be used for living expenses, and to pay down debt, so one does not have to sell ones coins.
There is no official link. Unofficially, gold still carries lots of weight in the monetary system....enough so that the PPT massages the gold
market at times to adjust the dollar. The "published" rational may be gone....the physical link is most certainly still intact.
roadrunner
This drop in Gold just happened to fast, and the Canadian dollar is crashing against the dollar. Something is up?
I agree with you, where is the gold coming from that is being sold? That said we might see gold go to $760 now.
This is fine with me, we all need another buying op.
<< <i>RR
This drop in Gold just happened to fast, and the Canadian dollar is crashing against the dollar. Something is up?
I agree with you, where is the gold coming from that is being sold? That said we might see gold go to $760 now.
This is fine with me, we all need another buying op. >>
i was thinking the same thing after peeking at the market today.
GOLD 11/12/2007 18:20 793.90 794.70 -12.00
-1.49%
Silver also continues it's plunge......down another .32 cents to below $14.50.
As the old saying goes. "what goes up...must come.. etc"
Nothing is up. The Canadian dollar appreciated so fast the last couple of weeks it was bound to go down.
About 6 months ago I had a chance to talk with one of Alberta's leading Oil economists and I asked him "where do you think the dollar will go in relation to the US dollar?".
His answer was "we value the Canadian dollar at par with the US dollar at $100 a barrel Oil."
Which makes sense because a lot of the financial 'geniuses' on TV say that at present levels of oil ($90 a barrel), the US dollar should still be valued a little higher than the CDN dollar.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Maybe it's for the good. We'll take a small beating now to allow the bull to run back at $850 again within a few weeks to a few months.
My guess would be on the shorter side of this range as I dont' see how TPTB can avoid the mess coming later this week with FASB 157.
Article by Sinclair on what is coming later this week:
The commercial paper market ended last week in full disarray.
November 15th is approaching quickly. It is this date where supposed real valuations, according to accounting standards, have to be made on value-less class 3 assets. Can you imagine they now call that crap class 3 assets rather than over the counter valueless specific performance credit and credit default garbage paper? That simply cannot be done without casing a disaster in major financial entities with major systemic destabilization.
In conversation last evening with the man who I respect most as the world's top gun of fundamentals, he feels the mark to model losses recently announced might well be less than 15% of the real loss. How do you mark to a real market when the real market is zero?
The technical crowd might like to sell the Euro, Cando and Gold, but they are terribly wrong.
This date of November 15th is a day when a nuclear accounting bomb will be dropped on Establishment Financial entities. This accounting requirement demands truth on the value of their structured products, also known as derivatives. One wonders if the accounting standards have any clue how terrible this situation is.
Operation "White Noise" trucks along. This effort has taken full advantage of the lack of knowledge of the masses who feel this is all a mortgage mess. It is not. It is the failure of complex credit and credit default over the counter derivatives created on securitized mortgages themselves. That is an OTC derivative on top of derivatives themselves.
$400 TRILLION coming at ya eventually. For now, it's just $20 TRILL.
roadrunner
Paper sales.
RR is right on.
A nice play to drop the price and a buying opp for the world.
<< <i>The markets around the world can't get enough gold and silver to keep up with demand. So who is actually selling so much to crash the price??
Paper sales.
RR is right on.
A nice play to drop the price and a buying opp for the world. >>
So it is physical buying when the price goes up but paper selling when it goes down? LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
in collusion with large financial institutions who are unable
to cover the PM paper that they have been selling and buying.
This seems to be a house of cards resting on a caldera over a
hot magma vent. When it blows, it will take out much of the
wonderful world of paper. Proof of ownership for precious metals
that do not exist and can never exist.
Camelot
"The FULL $20 was a sham considering that as soon as the Govt got the gold, they raised the price of gold 40% overnight, in effect devaluing the dollar by 40% and toasting all those who had saved gold to prevent just an occurrence".
That is exaclty how my father felt as a young adult in the 1930's.
I recall him telling me how the government order that citizens turn in their gold, at $20.00 an ounce, and then, when it was surrendered, the Roosevelt Administration turned around and increased the price of gold to $35.00 an ounce.
Nice frenzy on Wall Street today.
Bull Trap you think?
<< <i>So it is physical buying when the price goes up but paper selling when it goes down? LOL >>
India is seeing the highest-ever demand for gold this year.
"The strengthening of rupee against US dollar and rising consumer spending have raised India's gold demand by as much as 72 per cent in the first half of the year"link
I know, I know, its just some backwater country with a billion gold nuts. If it's not "Wall Street USA" it doesn't count. After all Goldman Sachs can naked sell short a few hundred contracts and it negates a full weeks sales in India. Good thing they will never have to produce the millions of ounces they sold but don't own.
At least they hope they dont have to.
They don't even have a goldmine.
GATA
Never heard that term. Is that one of those chart patterns?
to sell into strength. It is a trap.
Camelot
This paper gold thing is not over, it's just beginning and the people trying to manipulate the market in gold to save their paper are going to take a test just to see if they can indeed pull this off. Throw in a little forward selling of reserves by the suppliers and add that to the paper gold and we have the makings of another version of the SIV's. It wouldn't suprise me if those forward sales were actually put into SIV's along with the paper gold and they probably got at least an AA rating...HA!
In case no one noticed there is a large population of what were previously third world nations coming on board now to help add some international spread to the middle class. They want gold and they are buying it as their situation improves. You can be fairly damn sure, the third world middle class are not going to be taking paper for gold.
Got PM? Pound sand frat boys, see you on the other side!
Just think it might be time, particularly when the new "mark to market" rules kick in on Thursday.
Paper stocks vs. paper PM vs. paper cash vs. paper bonds. Hmmmmmm.............withdraw it and get penalized AND taxed, or play paper roulette?
Decisions, decisions....................
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Nice frenzy on Wall Street today. "
Bull Trap you think? >>
No. I don't think so.
An up stock market is just a natural result of a falling dollar and
even moreso, increasing inflation. In the past inflation has crippled
good businesses while propping up some failing ones and this time
will be the same but a lot of inflation will show up in the profits of
both good and bad companies this time. It will cause imbalances
and as always it will cause more harm than good but the net effect
on profits won't be that bad. The market will try (and fail) to keep
up with inflation for a couple more years before it breaks out to the
up-side.
It's probably dangerous to be completely out of the stock market
but be prepared to jump in with both feet. The trends seem to all
remain firmly in place.
(a bull trap is an up move in a down market and a bear trap is a down
move in a bull market.) Bulls jump in believing the trend has turned
but it proves to be a trap.)
trend ,cash will be important. If it turns into deflation
cash will be king. As long as one is hedged by PM and some
stock, then cash is a very nice thing to have in a liquid state.
Camelot
<< <i>Nice frenzy on Wall Street today. "
Bull Trap you think? >>
Trade it and take advantage. I got 10% on VMW and CROX in 24 hours. Trading accounts now flat and will play again tomorrow.
If you cant do that then just sit back and relax. Over the long term no investment class has outperformed equities.
Lots of stocks out there right now with profitable businesses, no debt and trading near cash on the balance sheets. Find them, buy them, smile.
BTW----The deflationary pressures exported by Japan during the 90s were the death knell for PMs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Trade it and take advantage. I got 10% on VMW and CROX in 24 hours. >>
Last week I made 100% in less than minute on a table in Vegas. I don't see much difference with this market.
Oh wait, I'm wrong. The big boys don't manipulate the game in Vegas as well as they do on Wall Street. They actually have real government regulators in Vegas.
OH YA MORE GOVERNMENT MANIPULATION !!
You know that new accounting rule that was supposed to take affect in the morning FASB 157?
Well it has now been postponed for one year, because it was just to scary to let the public know the truth.
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks and brokers face as much as $100 billion of writedowns because of Level 3 accounting rules.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board's rule 157 makes it more difficult for companies to avoid putting market prices on their hardest-to-value securities, known as Level 3 assets.
GE announced after hours today that is was taking a write down on derivative trades in its 5 BILLION cash management Fund.
The Fund which is never supposed to trade below $1.00 per share, will now only pay out to holders .96 cents per share.
We talked about this !!!
Watch those money market funds guys and gals!
<< <i>
<< <i>Trade it and take advantage. I got 10% on VMW and CROX in 24 hours. >>
Last week I made 100% in less than minute on a table in Vegas. I don't see much difference with this market.
Oh wait, I'm wrong. The big boys don't manipulate the game in Vegas as well as they do on Wall Street. They actually have real government regulators in Vegas. >>
hey I've put $5 on black and won, too...
<< <i>WHOA!!
GE announced after hours today that is was taking a write down on derivative trades in its 5 BILLION cash management Fund.
The Fund which is never supposed to trade below $1.00 per share, will now only pay out to holders .96 cents per share.
We talked about this !!!
Watch those money market funds guys and gals! >>
I use GMAC for my MMA. Its the only corporate MMA I found that was FDIC insured.
Ya never know.....
It's probably dangerous to be completely out of the stock market
I guess if you wait long enough, anything will make its way into print.
Note that being completely out of the stock market over the past 6 years would have been a good thing for many people.....esp if they were in PM's or other tangible assets. Being completely out of the market will be a great thing sooner than we think.
roadrunner
<< <i>I haven't seen any news of the cancellation of the FAS 157/159 rules on any metals website. If it were postponed you'd think it would be a hot topic. I have seen some requests or suggestions to delay the deadline. Frankly the rule has been out there long enough such that no one should have had a problem complying. If the big banks who have the most at risk have already tabulated their numbers, then why not the smaller banks/companies?
It's probably dangerous to be completely out of the stock market
I guess if you wait long enough, anything will make its way into print.
Note that being completely out of the stock market over the past 6 years would have been a good thing for many people.....esp if they were in PM's or other tangible assets. Being completely out of the market will be a great thing sooner than we think.
roadrunner >>
There are lots of stocks that have done pretty well the last couple years.
I believe I suggested things like basic materials stocks, European stocks
and currency, inflation bonds and the like earlier in this thread. This would
have proven a fairly well diversified (with precious metals) and highly pro-
fitable position the last few years. Dividend stocks have generally done
reasonably well.
This isn't to say that one should always be in the stock market. There are
brief periods where the market is overly risky across the board and longer
periods where many segments are overly risky. Usually there are some
segments which present good opportunity and these are a good way to
stay in the market.
The stock market will go up like a rocket one of these days (it's years away
probably), you don't want to be sitting on the sidelines when it happens.
It is probably wise to never get under 5% or 10% in the market. The last
few years have been a time to be slowly increasing this. Jump in with both
feet right before inflation peaks. This will be when everyone else is buying
gold. Sell it to them and buy stocks.