Well, that was different. Actually, it's hard to know who got it what with the post deletions. But it might as well be CCW in her surprise cameo role, fresh from her current engagement in the refuge. Good on ya. Amazing what threads they watch over there. See y'all in 5000.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
"his tone or meaning was about me owning gold and silver and him owning cash in the bank and drawing 5 % interest so the junkyard remark meaning metals in a junkyard or gold silver and platinum i'll never relate any more dollar losing buying power world wide to anyone else"
No sir, Wayneme...just a little light hearted banter about the best business being a metals yard. I own metals and cash though fate seems to have dealt me a fair hand for the moment. I'm not at all taking a swipe at you or anyone else but I will reserve a retort for 2ndRep at a date to be decided.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Mhammer </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the statement wasn't directed towards you or taken wrong keep up with the banter </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>i just wasn't sure you understand the point </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>if your on this thread or chat line your thinking and doing what you can . I believe </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the point of my statement was most people don't have a clue as to what is going on the their dollars.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> losing buying </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>power</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>everything is going up milk ,gas. taxes </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>,insurance and the normal guy doesn't know why </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>their pay stays the same or raise a little and the health insurance deductible raise to take most of their raise annually</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>and the money they can save they put it in </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2> bank cd's drawing little if any valve back . to scared to lose what they have with other investment </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>i take it from most of guys they feel their goverment has sold them out </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> the workers and their jobs are a chip in the game now their saving are </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> they are paying the price and being clueless as to why or where to turn to change it </FONT></DIV>
The sub-prime mess continues.... Wachovia now announcing their 1.1 Billion loss. The banking industry losses now totals around 40 billion for the 3rd quarter, and expectations are that the 4th quarter will be just as bad.
"...most people don't have a clue as to what is going on the their dollars."
Well, they do have a clue when their $125/week grocery bill from 3-4 months ago is coming in at about $170 and their $120 monthly gas bill from a few months ago is now sitting at $145. They haven't received their auto/residence insurance annual premium rate increase statements yet and they probably won't be seeing that 3% COLA next year, and their credit card unpaid balance interest rates are edging up to 29% because folks are showing up late with the payments because all of the sudden, they are strapped for cash. The sheeple are getting fleeced and they probably have a clue but they just don't understand how or why and there is not a damn thing they can do about it except get a second job. Reminds me of my graduate design professor...he used to say that we all get 24 hours a day to do our work and if we can't get it done in a 24 hour day, we have to work nights. "Because something is happening here but you don't know what it is do you, Mister Jones".
We are all hell bent on the road to Auschwitz exporting our jobs, not drilling for our own oil and importing people to place on welfare
Does anybody have information regarding all the Oil the US has locked up in the oil shales of Colorado? I heard once that there is more Oil in these shales than all the oil in the Oil sands of Alberta Canada. The only problem of course, is it's locked up in rock (shale).
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
Here's a simple one that would cause the dollar to rise and gold to fall: raise interest rates. Why aren't we doing that? Obviously, because economic growth is weak and the Fed. wants to skirt a recession. But if we got into a situation remotely approaching what he is describing, the Fed. would do exactly that. Volcker did the same thing in the early 80s.
Willie may be a bit OTT but his reality is closer than yours imo.
The FED is only avoiding raising interest rates in order to afford the big investment banks and brokers some time to bail out of their illiquid commercial paper and derivatives. That's the ONLY reason rates aren't going up now. They are protecting their brethern. Thanks to big Hank for watching out for da boyz.
We are not even remotely in the situation we were when Volcker hammered rates beginning in 1980. Back then we have a much more stable manufacturing economy that was not finanical services dependent. That same trick today would throw the USA into a major depression before even reaching 12% interest rates....let alone 20%. Basically, the FED is essentially out of ammo is what Willie is saying. They have almost none of the options and flexibility that Volcker had available to him.
Hey, don't look now but when interest rates were raised dramatically starting around 1976-1978, they only FUELED the run by gold. It took several years of raising rates and hitting 20% before they turned gold around. Raising rates from here will not stop gold from going up. In fact the lack of revenues will slow the economy further and shift more money towards gold....for years. But I agree that rates will be raised once Hank Paulsen bails out his buddies and shifts more risk to the consumer.
I don't know where you get your information about interest rate hikes from 1976 to 1978. Volcker became FED chairman in August 1979. LINK. Volcker is the person who started the interest rate hikes and monetary contraction that eventually choked off inflation, knocked down the price of gold, and re-established a powerful US dollar.
The claims about US manufacturing reflect the "conventional wisdom" of a lot of folks, but they are way off base. US manufacturing output is at an all-time high. US manufacturing employment may be down, but that has nothing to do with the far more imporant question of total output. LINK 1 , LINK 2.. According to the second link, a 2003 news article from The Economist, "Even after the [2001] recession, American manufacturing output is almost 50 percent higher than in 1992," and has "more than doubled since 1970."
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
If we don't manufacture anything, how is it that we exported $140 billion worth of exports in September of this year alone, an all-time record? LINK.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
Total output might be up, but as a percentage, manufacturing is well under 20% of GDP. I've seen numbers as low as 6% Services is around 80%.
If you can figure out how to make a First World Economy, let alone the "strongest nation on earth", dependent on people serving burgers to each other, let me know.
Trivia fact #1: The Dow 30 now contains only 17 real manufacturing companies - and I'm being liberal in my definition of manufacturing. The rest are financial, retail, resellers, etc. And the 17 make a large percentage of their products overseas.
Putting McDonalds in the Dow30 was one of the most ominous economic events, speaking at least symbolically, in recent history.
Trivia fact #2: there are now more skyscrapers in Shanghai than in New York City
<< <i> If you can figure out how to make a First World Economy, let alone the "strongest nation on earth", dependent on people serving burgers to each other, let me know. >>
Services includes a lot of things which add a tremendous amount of economic value. The people who design products (whether made here or made abroad) are providing a "service." So are doctors and scientists. The people who create intellectual property are also providing "services." There is a lot more value in creating new blockbuster drugs and other products (computers, software) than in just manufacturing the stuff.
This is something that's so obvious we take it for granted.
Would you tell your son or daughter to go to college and be an "idea" worker, or to go work in a factory? Where's the value added, where's the chance for a better life? The same thing that is true for individuals is true, to a lesser extent, for nations. With the exception of high end manufactured products, we are mostly better off being a nation that creates ideas rather than a nation of factory workers that screw widgets together.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
<< <i>exports are probably counting other things like food. not TVs, cars, washers and dryers, machinery, etc..
oh sure, we excel in some things, but the only place i see american goods by the ton is in an ANTIQUE STORE. >>
You can look up exactly what we export to each country, by dollar amount, for the past 5 years here: LINK. A very informative site.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
"Does anybody have information regarding all the Oil the US has locked up in the oil shales of Colorado? I heard once that there is more Oil in these shales than all the oil in the Oil sands of Alberta Canada. The only problem of course, is it's locked up in rock (shale)."
DoubleEagle59, you are absolutely correct in this. That is the estimate. And, the problem has been the ability to economically extract the oil. Parachute Co was a boom town in the late 70's, with gearing up to try to do this. But they failed due to the cost and not having the right technology, and the project turned into a ghost town.
However now, there are several new technologies that can extract the oil at a profit. If I recall, one is a bio-extraction type; another had to do with 'freezing' and cracking the rock structure in place underground, etc. So we may see a resurgence of this resource.
Likewise, it has been estimated that the tar sands of Canada also contain more oil than the known reserves of the middle east. The Canadians are in fact extracting this oil at a profit.
It is also believed that our coal reserves contain more energy than the oil reserves. So there is no shortage of energy sources.
I do believe that we should try to propel these new technologies.... BUT, I also believe that we should keep using middle east oil. Use THEIR resources... and keep ours tapped and ready to go for later in a resource starved world.... that would seem to make strategic sense. Granted... it may cost us more, but sometimes one must look to the longer range strategic picture rather than the immediate one..... and strike a balance between the two. I seem to recall reading an article that the middle east was going to start losing production in 10 years or so.... those wells will empty at some point. We tend to think the supply in the middle east is in-exhaustible... but that is not the case.
<< <i>If we don't manufacture anything, how is it that we exported $140 billion worth of exports in September of this year alone, an all-time record? LINK. >>
You can look up exactly what we export to each country, by dollar amount, for the past 5 years here: LINK. A very informative site
yes, tis a good link. i was trying to locate something like that when typing out my post. thank you.
our huge trade deficit keeps coming to mind though. once we were basically self sufficient now we are not.
even the unions do not support each other. electricians driving toyotas, plumbers buying hondas, etc..
it is heartening to see those stats but my common sense indicator tells me we have changed. if you try to buy american it is often a futile effort that leads to frustration.
I am also very bothered by our trade deficit. It's a symptom of the bigger problem of spending beyond our means. In the long run we cannot survive as a truly independent country if we sell so many of our assets to foreigners, in exchange for whatever junk they are shipping over here. We need a government that will make this a major priority and not just say "who cares" as this administration and others have done.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
Toyota's and Honda's have become quite American...made here in the USA! They employ many Americans and fill avoid that American Car Manufactures would not fill.
Forbes (10/23) reports that the "canyon" which is the China/US deficit doesn't provide a complete profile on US productivity. While China excels at producing low-cost items such as sneakers, clothing, toys.... US factories actually churn out far more products, worth alot more money. "America manufactures 21% of the value in the world's manufactured goods-- China's share is growing, but only makes up 8% of the pie."
When China gets into manufacturing such goods as airplanes, cars, military items, high ticket items, we're in for more trouble.
The biggest negative factor to our growing economic safety is higher taxes and more government regulation.
Would you tell your son or daughter to go to college and be an "idea" worker, or to go work in a factory? Where's the value added, where's the chance for a better life? The same thing that is true for individuals is true, to a lesser extent, for nations. With the exception of high end manufactured products, we are mostly better off being a nation that creates ideas rather than a nation of factory workers that screw widgets together. <B>
So if we have problems with china and it get out of hand we order ahead or we just throw ideas at them . makes me wonder you look at history he would has the most on the battle field or can put it their wins in most cases
Wayneme, that's why I said "With the exception of high end manufactured products." We still need high-end technology and sophisticated weapons systems to whack 'em if they get out of line.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
Their are no computer control maching centers made in the usa [ cnc] a cnc will make any thing you want even it self with the right programing high end low end i believe so high end low end isn't a statement just a wish we are level in skills with china or behind they have more people and were bleeding our skilled people out in 20 years or less we'll have to throw ideas we won't have the skills i really don't believe we have them now
Would you tell your son or daughter to go to college and be an "idea" worker, or to go work in a factory? Where's the value added, where's the chance for a better life? The same thing that is true for individuals is true, to a lesser extent, for nations. With the exception of high end manufactured products, we are mostly better off being a nation that creates ideas rather than a nation of factory workers that screw widgets together.
I'd tell my son or daughter not to waste the time to go to college only to be indebted for $100K-$200K for the next 10-20 years. Rather learn a skilled trade like plumbing, electrical, carpentry, etc and eventually start their own company. That is always worthwhile and presently out-earns many or most of your typical college grads. Those kinds of skills are always in vogue and also allow one to not have to pay someone else $75-$100/hr to fix your home problems. If I had to do it again, I'd probably pass on the degree and "idea" methodology and go via a skilled trade.
A bill just passed the house floor to add up to 8% taxes to miners drilling on the continental US. The net effect will be to make US miners less competitive and drive up the price of gold further. This will drive US exploration companies overseas. Another win for the bird and snail watchers. What's next, oil?
Here's a yearly interest rate table that shows the general trend. It took a 10% interest rate in 1974 to turn the price of gold...it fell until 1976 when rates bottomed around 4-5%. From that point on rates increased for several years.....long before Chief Volcker took over. The point? Rising interest rates (up to 10%) did nothing to stem the rise of gold into 1979. It clearly shows that gold was happy to rise against rising rates for 4 years...debunking the myth that the opposite can occur. For more detail on this read Jim Sinclair as he mentions this point at least once per week. This is why whatever action the FED takes with rates right now (up or down) they will be ineffective for quite some time in turning gold. What happened as rates increased to 6% over the previous several years (hint: gold went up!).
Sorry....the link doesn't leave you at the page I picked. You'll have to select interest rates on the list to the left of the page and select the years you want displayed.
PS...I get my interest rate information from tables accessible from various sources. Wikipedia is not my personal standard reference for the history of economics. Volcker wasn't the only FED Chief raising interest rates in the 1970's. He just finished the job his predecessors started. Interest rate data is pretty uniform from source to source...except maybe Wikipedia. But if Wiki says that Volcker started the interest rate bumps in the 1970's, then who am I to discredit their "PhD" researchers.
The optimism w/POG seems to be, at least for the moment, well founded. Just watching the behavior, the metal has held it's recent gains easily. It doesn't appear that there are any weaknesses that would keep it from offering a little opportunity for even more appreciation. Anybody that wanted to wack the metal probably would have by now, if they could. Since gold is valued internationally in USD, it has seen an incredible appreciation over the last two years (in concert w/other commodities) as the dollar has become weaker and BRIC has become richer, much richer. POG in USD should appreciate over the near term as an international commodity priced in USD. Somebody may wack it but we haven't seen that guy yet.
Predict that the barbarous relic will hold $800 through the end of the year, with a few speculative opportunities on both sides of the play during that time. Seems to be resistance to $850, that does seem like a lot of money for an oz. Most folk are slipping and as they slip, gold gets farther and farther away. On the other side of the coin, those folk with money are getting more cash money as they take their stocks out of play and put their cash in play. That cash has to go somewhere and real estate and PM's and some green or critical resource related stocks will see the lion's share of cash redistribution. Maybe some of it will slip into the coin market. It wouldn't suprise me if we were looking at a mutated 1986. It's the same thing, paper...kind of like dejavu all over again.
For what it is worth here is what the inflation calculator says about $800.00 in 1979.
What cost $800.00 in 1979 would cost $2388.45 in 2006. Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2006 and 1979, they would cost you $800.00 and $267.96 respectively.
> A bill just passed the house floor to add up to 8% taxes to miners drilling on the continental US. The net effect will be to make US miners less competitive and drive up the price of gold further.
As I noted in a post in either this or another economic-related thread, mining companies pay basically ZERO to the taxpayer. One Canadian company mined ore worth hundreds of millions of dollars while paying four figures in royalties. It was something like a 0.00023% royalty rate.
If you are going to have a policy of "we'll give away the farm to anybody who makes the claim that they need to be globally competitive", then anybody should be able to make that claim for themselves on an individual basis. In other words, "I need to pay no taxes because I need to be globally competitive". That would work if roads were paved for free, sewage was treated by magic, bridges were repaired by elves, schools were taught by volunteers, etc.
> Rather learn a skilled trade like plumbing, electrical, carpentry, etc and eventually start their own company.
I agree with your point about skilled trades training.
Although there are many similarities to today’s financial crisis, with those of the 70’S there are also many differences.
First those 50% of us that pay all the taxes are very close to living month to month. Personal debt is at all time highs and personal savings is at all time lows. The average upper middle class person is paying out 50 to 60% of all the money they make in taxes, is paying out substantial sums in interest and has very little wiggle room to withstand the coming doubling in daily product consumption prices.
My personal feeling here is that the U.S. financial system will experience a total collapse in less than 10 years, and this might be generous, it might be five.
The worst to be hurt in this collapse will be the unprepared, the lower middle class that is now receiving huge benefits from our socialistic system, and folks working for various city, state, and federal governments. There is simply going to be a time when these folks can no longer get paid.
Communism and socialism simply are just not viable ways to run a society and in the end they all fail.
According to the Wall Street Guru’s the stock market entered an official bear market yesterday. I dumped everything in my small trading account but GLD, which I really expect to see a correction in the next few weeks. It appears to me that nearly every sector, even the good ones, are going to get burned. Best to wait until the dust settles.
I think we will see gold move back to $800 maybe even $790 to take a breather before resuming its run. Maybe one last buying opportunity before $1,000. The Central banks did everything they could last week to keep Gold from going to $850; it tried three times and got pushed down. For some reason most of Wall Street thinks Gold’s all time high was $850, actually it was $887.
All of our levels of government are going to try everything they can to keep the socialistic wealth transfer system intact, so it is a good time to go about doing your own self-protection, and hide the best you can. Perhaps buying gold and silver investments for Xmass gifts this year might be a great idea. I think I will tell the wife all I want for Xmass is a ten ounce gold bar.
As we enter this new hyper-inflation stage you might see your credit card interest go above 30% so better pay those cards off, and cut back spending now.
Because of the dangers in coming financial defaults I am keeping my trading stock account funded at a very low level, where I could afford to lose it all, or have it tied up in a bankruptcy for a couple of years.
We have discussed this at length, playing in and out of paper markets is the same as going to Vegas, so personally I am not going to gamble any more than I might take on a week trip to Casino land.
Everyone’s tolerance for this is different so we each will have to judge what they can lose if the game turns sour.
With just a few exceptions, the wealth affect in this country over the next few years is basically dead except for those brilliant few of us. Any highly leveraged real estate is going to be a problem. All paper assets, notes, C.D.’S, bonds, the majority of shares the S&P 500, etc. will all lose value in buying power as hyper inflation enters the scene.
Our food, our fuel, clothing, cars, everything we use everyday will see dramatic increases in cost as we enter this stage.
Taxes in every area will go up, as all the governments get more and more desperate to hold on to employees and programs.
The only thing I see as being cheaper, or at least staying within reasonable price ranges, are our tech toys. I call them that because we love our toys but they are in no way a necessity of life.
So if some of you thought we had gloom and doom on this thread before just watch the next few months, Ha Ha
“Wouldn't surprise me if they just wanted your shares cheap.”
Hey Fish,
Most of what I had was not cheap, mostly high tech shares, and calls, at 52-week highs. I sold because I am not riding this horse down the mountain.
It should be clear to one and all that there is NO such thing as a long term hold that makes any money in this stock market.
The S&P was 1,552.87 on March 24, 2000 and is at 1,457.7 today and that is with these guys replaceing all the losers over the last seven years. We could very easyily see the S&P below 1,400 in the next few weeks.
Being a stock trader is very dangerous, and should be considered by one and all as gambling, but being a “long term” investor in this market is really foolish. Even if your shares went up an average of 6% a year, real inflation is running 8% plus and then you have to pay taxes when you sell.
This market is full of government stats that are nothing but lies, large financial institutions creating fiat wealth out of thin air, and more crooks selling paper than there is in most prisons. Probably 30% of the value of the S&P is pyramid schemes, of hedges that can never be covered, cdo’s, siv’s, default credit obligations, forward sales of in ground reserves, off the book credit card defaults, toxic mortgages that can never be redeemed because the value of the underlying property is now 20% below the mortgage value.
All the pundits keep saying this markets average is cheap at 16 to 17 PE’S but that’s only because they included all the dogs to bring the averages down. Look at the really good companies and they are very expensive.
If you looked at our market from outside the U.S. dollar this stock market has already suffered terrible losses in all the other currencies around the world.
<< <i>For what it is worth here is what the inflation calculator says about $800.00 in 1979.
What cost $800.00 in 1979 would cost $2388.45 in 2006. Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2006 and 1979, they would cost you $800.00 and $267.96 respectively.
What's it say about gold $35 in 1974? You guys always picking a peak to make a point, that's like taking the NASDAQ at over 5000 in 2000 and doing a comparsion. It makes an arguement but in reality it a controled analysis to rig results IMO. Seems to me timing is eveything since you'd still be down half in the NASDAQ and dropping. The dot coms drove the NASDAQ just like the Hunt brothers drove the PM's.
Here's the answer from your own calculator:
What cost $35 in 1974 would cost $153.42 in 2006. Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2006 and 1974, they would cost you $35 and $7.98 respectively.
Man, now GoldSaint is gonna make me go back and recheck all the charts to see if I missed something. Not a very picture for anything. I know the gold bugs are awaiting another break out above the current level. I can't fault their analysis. But we've been in a cyclical stocks bear market since 2001. The last 18 months or so was just an up cycle within the broader bear. There is still unfinished hand wringing to do from 2001 that Greenspan's rate lowering left unfinished. Is this the time? Contrarily, analyst Cliff Droke would agree with Gisele and say that the pull back is now overblown and to expect a stock and dollar rally sometime in the near future. All I know for sure is that there are still immense issues with the liquidity of the major banks. That to me is the driving force behind the current market movements.
Comments
(Edited to say: <5,000 - I tried.
>>>My Collection
dang ccw .......congrats.
<< <i>5000
dang ccw .......congrats.
She was alluding to her weight and not the post count.
<< <i>We are all hell bent on the road to Auschwitz exporting our jobs, not drilling for our own oil and importing people to place on welfare.
"Road to Auschwitz"? As in, "road to a concentration camp"? That doesn't make sense.
<< <i>
<< <i>We are all hell bent on the road to Auschwitz exporting our jobs, not drilling for our own oil and importing people to place on welfare.
"Road to Auschwitz"? As in, "road to a concentration camp"? That doesn't make sense.
As in, road to destruction.
<< <i>
<< <i>5,000!
Remember, four posts were deleted.
Doesn't work that way, dear. >>
So long as I get the last post, that's all that counts.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>5,000!
Remember, four posts were deleted.
Doesn't work that way, dear. >>
So long as I get the last post, that's all that counts.
It's all yours.
(And so it starts...)
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>
<< <i>5000
dang ccw .......congrats.
She was alluding to her weight and not the post count. >>
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
so the junkyard remark meaning metals in a junkyard or gold silver and platinum
i'll never relate any more dollar losing buying power world wide to anyone else"
No sir, Wayneme...just a little light hearted banter about the best business being a metals yard. I own metals and cash though fate seems to have dealt me a fair hand for the moment. I'm not at all taking a swipe at you or anyone else but I will reserve a retort for 2ndRep at a date to be decided.
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the statement wasn't directed towards you or taken wrong keep up with the banter </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>i just wasn't sure you understand the point </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>if your on this thread or chat line your thinking and doing what you can . I believe </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the point of my statement was most people don't have a clue as to what is going on the their dollars.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> losing buying </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>power</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>everything is going up milk ,gas. taxes </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>,insurance and the normal guy doesn't know why </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>their pay stays the same or raise a little and the health insurance deductible raise to take most of their raise annually</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>and the money they can save they put it in </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2> bank cd's drawing little if any valve back . to scared to lose what they have with other investment </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>i take it from most of guys they feel their goverment has sold them out </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> the workers and their jobs are a chip in the game now their saving are </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> they are paying the price and being clueless as to why or where to turn to change it </FONT></DIV>
Wachovia
Anybody ready to invest in real estate yet?
Well, they do have a clue when their $125/week grocery bill from 3-4 months ago is coming in at about $170 and their $120 monthly gas bill from a few months ago is now sitting at $145. They haven't received their auto/residence insurance annual premium rate increase statements yet and they probably won't be seeing that 3% COLA next year, and their credit card unpaid balance interest rates are edging up to 29% because folks are showing up late with the payments because all of the sudden, they are strapped for cash. The sheeple are getting fleeced and they probably have a clue but they just don't understand how or why and there is not a damn thing they can do about it except get a second job. Reminds me of my graduate design professor...he used to say that we all get 24 hours a day to do our work and if we can't get it done in a 24 hour day, we have to work nights. "Because something is happening here but you don't know what it is do you, Mister Jones".
It was put into place as policy by the Treasury Secretary in 2004.
Link
-Richard Jeni
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
<< <i>We are all on the Hindenburgh and are arguing over who has the window seat.
-Richard Jeni >>
I love teh window seat. that way I can lay my head against it and sleep. Its better than getting bumped by every one walking to the bathroom.
<< <i>We are all on the Hindenburgh and are arguing over who has the window seat.
-Richard Jeni >>
I love the window seat. I can rest my head and sleep through the flight.
Does anybody have information regarding all the Oil the US has locked up in the oil shales of Colorado? I heard once that there is more Oil in these shales than all the oil in the Oil sands of Alberta Canada. The only problem of course, is it's locked up in rock (shale).
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Willie may be a bit OTT but his reality is closer than yours imo.
The FED is only avoiding raising interest rates in order to afford the big investment banks and brokers some time to bail out of their illiquid
commercial paper and derivatives. That's the ONLY reason rates aren't going up now. They are protecting their brethern. Thanks to big Hank for watching out for da boyz.
We are not even remotely in the situation we were when Volcker hammered rates beginning in 1980. Back then we have a much more stable manufacturing economy that was not finanical services dependent. That same trick today would throw the USA into a major depression before even reaching 12% interest rates....let alone 20%. Basically, the FED is essentially out of ammo is what Willie is saying.
They have almost none of the options and flexibility that Volcker had available to him.
Hey, don't look now but when interest rates were raised dramatically starting around 1976-1978, they only FUELED the run by gold.
It took several years of raising rates and hitting 20% before they turned gold around. Raising rates from here will not stop gold from
going up. In fact the lack of revenues will slow the economy further and shift more money towards gold....for years. But I agree that rates will be raised once Hank Paulsen bails out his buddies and shifts more risk to the consumer.
roadrunner
The claims about US manufacturing reflect the "conventional wisdom" of a lot of folks, but they are way off base. US manufacturing output is at an all-time high. US manufacturing employment may be down, but that has nothing to do with the far more imporant question of total output. LINK 1 , LINK 2.. According to the second link, a 2003 news article from The Economist, "Even after the [2001] recession, American manufacturing output is almost 50 percent higher than in 1992," and has "more than doubled since 1970."
1970 was probably the lowest area they could find in the
charts.
if one digs a bit deeper you will probably see that compared
to the 1950s we will never get back to that same production
level.
it is like someone showing a chart for gold.. showing the bottom
and where we are now. wow! what a great run. never showing
the rest of the story.
i am looking around me for things made in the USA. I do not
see any. should I believe you and your damned stats or my
own eyes?
Total output might be up, but as a percentage, manufacturing is well under 20% of GDP. I've seen numbers as low as 6% Services is around 80%.
If you can figure out how to make a First World Economy, let alone the "strongest nation on earth", dependent on people serving burgers to each other, let me know.
Trivia fact #1: The Dow 30 now contains only 17 real manufacturing companies - and I'm being liberal in my definition of manufacturing. The rest are financial, retail, resellers, etc. And the 17 make a large percentage of their products overseas.
Putting McDonalds in the Dow30 was one of the most ominous economic events, speaking at least symbolically, in recent history.
Trivia fact #2: there are now more skyscrapers in Shanghai than in New York City
not TVs, cars, washers and dryers, machinery, etc..
oh sure, we excel in some things, but the only place i see american
goods by the ton is in an ANTIQUE STORE.
<< <i> If you can figure out how to make a First World Economy, let alone the "strongest nation on earth", dependent on people serving burgers to each other, let me know. >>
Services includes a lot of things which add a tremendous amount of economic value. The people who design products (whether made here or made abroad) are providing a "service." So are doctors and scientists. The people who create intellectual property are also providing "services." There is a lot more value in creating new blockbuster drugs and other products (computers, software) than in just manufacturing the stuff.
This is something that's so obvious we take it for granted.
Would you tell your son or daughter to go to college and be an "idea" worker, or to go work in a factory? Where's the value added, where's the chance for a better life? The same thing that is true for individuals is true, to a lesser extent, for nations. With the exception of high end manufactured products, we are mostly better off being a nation that creates ideas rather than a nation of factory workers that screw widgets together.
<< <i>exports are probably counting other things like food.
not TVs, cars, washers and dryers, machinery, etc..
oh sure, we excel in some things, but the only place i see american
goods by the ton is in an ANTIQUE STORE. >>
You can look up exactly what we export to each country, by dollar amount, for the past 5 years here: LINK. A very informative site.
DoubleEagle59, you are absolutely correct in this. That is the estimate. And, the problem has been the ability to economically extract the oil. Parachute Co was a boom town in the late 70's, with gearing up to try to do this. But they failed due to the cost and not having the right technology, and the project turned into a ghost town.
However now, there are several new technologies that can extract the oil at a profit. If I recall, one is a bio-extraction type; another had to do with 'freezing' and cracking the rock structure in place underground, etc. So we may see a resurgence of this resource.
Likewise, it has been estimated that the tar sands of Canada also contain more oil than the known reserves of the middle east. The Canadians are in fact extracting this oil at a profit.
It is also believed that our coal reserves contain more energy than the oil reserves. So there is no shortage of energy sources.
I do believe that we should try to propel these new technologies.... BUT, I also believe that we should keep using middle east oil. Use THEIR resources... and keep ours tapped and ready to go for later in a resource starved world.... that would seem to make strategic sense. Granted... it may cost us more, but sometimes one must look to the longer range strategic picture rather than the immediate one..... and strike a balance between the two. I seem to recall reading an article that the middle east was going to start losing production in 10 years or so.... those wells will empty at some point. We tend to think the supply in the middle east is in-exhaustible... but that is not the case.
edited to include quotes.... kj
<< <i>If we don't manufacture anything, how is it that we exported $140 billion worth of exports in September of this year alone, an all-time record? LINK. >>
how much of that was agriculture?
edited....i see your post above thanks
yes, tis a good link. i was trying to locate something like that
when typing out my post. thank you.
our huge trade deficit keeps coming to mind though. once we
were basically self sufficient now we are not.
even the unions do not support each other. electricians driving
toyotas, plumbers buying hondas, etc..
it is heartening to see those stats but my common sense indicator
tells me we have changed. if you try to buy american it is often
a futile effort that leads to frustration.
thanks again for that link.
When China gets into manufacturing such goods as airplanes, cars, military items, high ticket items, we're in for more trouble.
The biggest negative factor to our growing economic safety is higher taxes and more government regulation.
So be careful who we bring into office in 08'.
<B>
So if we have problems with china and it get out of hand
we order ahead or we just throw ideas at them .
makes me wonder
you look at history he would has the most on the battle field or can put it their wins
in most cases
</B>
We got the sub-prime mortgage mess by easing regulations on lending.
Enron was the result of deregulating energy companies.
I'm not sure your idea is true, at least based upon documented history.
a cnc will make any thing you want even it self with the right programing high end low end
i believe
so high end low end isn't a statement just a wish
we are level in skills with china or behind they have more people and were bleeding our skilled people out
in 20 years or less we'll have to throw ideas we won't have the skills
i really don't believe we have them now
I'd tell my son or daughter not to waste the time to go to college only to be indebted for $100K-$200K for the next 10-20 years.
Rather learn a skilled trade like plumbing, electrical, carpentry, etc and eventually start their own company. That is always worthwhile and presently out-earns many or most of your typical college grads. Those kinds of skills are always in vogue and also allow one to not have to pay someone else $75-$100/hr to fix your home problems. If I had to do it again, I'd probably pass on the degree and "idea" methodology and go via a skilled trade.
A bill just passed the house floor to add up to 8% taxes to miners drilling on the continental US. The net effect will be to make US miners less competitive and drive up the price of gold further.
This will drive US exploration companies overseas. Another win for the bird and snail watchers. What's next, oil?
Here's a yearly interest rate table that shows the general trend.
It took a 10% interest rate in 1974 to turn the price of gold...it fell until 1976 when rates bottomed around 4-5%. From that point on rates increased for several years.....long before Chief Volcker took over. The point? Rising interest rates (up to 10%) did nothing to stem the rise of gold into 1979. It clearly shows that gold was happy to rise against rising rates for 4 years...debunking the myth that the opposite can occur. For more detail on this read Jim Sinclair as he mentions this point at least once per week. This is why whatever action the FED takes with rates right now (up or down) they will be ineffective for quite some time in turning gold.
What happened as rates increased to 6% over the previous several years (hint: gold went up!).
US and UK interest rates 1971 to 1982
Sorry....the link doesn't leave you at the page I picked. You'll have to select interest rates on the list to the left of the page and select the years you want displayed.
PS...I get my interest rate information from tables accessible from various sources. Wikipedia is not my personal standard reference for the history of economics. Volcker wasn't the only FED Chief raising interest rates in the 1970's. He just finished the job his predecessors started. Interest rate data is pretty uniform from source to source...except maybe Wikipedia. But if Wiki says that Volcker started the interest rate bumps in the 1970's, then who am I to discredit their "PhD" researchers.
roadrunner
The optimism w/POG seems to be, at least for the moment, well founded. Just watching the behavior, the metal has held it's recent gains easily. It doesn't appear that there are any weaknesses that would keep it from offering a little opportunity for even more appreciation. Anybody that wanted to wack the metal probably would have by now, if they could. Since gold is valued internationally in USD, it has seen an incredible appreciation over the last two years (in concert w/other commodities) as the dollar has become weaker and BRIC has become richer, much richer. POG in USD should appreciate over the near term as an international commodity priced in USD. Somebody may wack it but we haven't seen that guy yet.
Predict that the barbarous relic will hold $800 through the end of the year, with a few speculative opportunities on both sides of the play during that time. Seems to be resistance to $850, that does seem like a lot of money for an oz. Most folk are slipping and as they slip, gold gets farther and farther away. On the other side of the coin, those folk with money are getting more cash money as they take their stocks out of play and put their cash in play. That cash has to go somewhere and real estate and PM's and some green or critical resource related stocks will see the lion's share of cash redistribution. Maybe some of it will slip into the coin market. It wouldn't suprise me if we were looking at a mutated 1986. It's the same thing, paper...kind of like dejavu all over again.
Resource
DYODD, for entertainment purposes only.
What cost $800.00 in 1979 would cost $2388.45 in 2006.
Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2006 and 1979,
they would cost you $800.00 and $267.96 respectively.
The Inflation Calculator !
Chance favors the prepared mind.
As I noted in a post in either this or another economic-related thread, mining companies pay basically ZERO to the taxpayer. One Canadian company mined ore worth hundreds of millions of dollars while paying four figures in royalties. It was something like a 0.00023% royalty rate.
If you are going to have a policy of "we'll give away the farm to anybody who makes the claim that they need to be globally competitive", then anybody should be able to make that claim for themselves on an individual basis. In other words, "I need to pay no taxes because I need to be globally competitive". That would work if roads were paved for free, sewage was treated by magic, bridges were repaired by elves, schools were taught by volunteers, etc.
> Rather learn a skilled trade like plumbing, electrical, carpentry, etc and eventually start their own company.
I agree with your point about skilled trades training.
Although there are many similarities to today’s financial crisis, with those of the 70’S there are also many differences.
First those 50% of us that pay all the taxes are very close to living month to month. Personal debt is at all time highs and personal savings is at all time lows. The average upper middle class person is paying out 50 to 60% of all the money they make in taxes, is paying out substantial sums in interest and has very little wiggle room to withstand the coming doubling in daily product consumption prices.
My personal feeling here is that the U.S. financial system will experience a total collapse in less than 10 years, and this might be generous, it might be five.
The worst to be hurt in this collapse will be the unprepared, the lower middle class that is now receiving huge benefits from our socialistic system, and folks working for various city, state, and federal governments. There is simply going to be a time when these folks can no longer get paid.
Communism and socialism simply are just not viable ways to run a society and in the end they all fail.
According to the Wall Street Guru’s the stock market entered an official bear market yesterday. I dumped everything in my small trading account but GLD, which I really expect to see a correction in the next few weeks. It appears to me that nearly every sector, even the good ones, are going to get burned. Best to wait until the dust settles.
I think we will see gold move back to $800 maybe even $790 to take a breather before resuming its run. Maybe one last buying opportunity before $1,000. The Central banks did everything they could last week to keep Gold from going to $850; it tried three times and got pushed down. For some reason most of Wall Street thinks Gold’s all time high was $850, actually it was $887.
All of our levels of government are going to try everything they can to keep the socialistic wealth transfer system intact, so it is a good time to go about doing your own self-protection, and hide the best you can. Perhaps buying gold and silver investments for Xmass gifts this year might be a great idea. I think I will tell the wife all I want for Xmass is a ten ounce gold bar.
As we enter this new hyper-inflation stage you might see your credit card interest go above 30% so better pay those cards off, and cut back spending now.
Because of the dangers in coming financial defaults I am keeping my trading stock account funded at a very low level, where I could afford to lose it all, or have it tied up in a bankruptcy for a couple of years.
We have discussed this at length, playing in and out of paper markets is the same as going to Vegas, so personally I am not going to gamble any more than I might take on a week trip to Casino land.
Everyone’s tolerance for this is different so we each will have to judge what they can lose if the game turns sour.
With just a few exceptions, the wealth affect in this country over the next few years is basically dead except for those brilliant few of us. Any highly leveraged real estate is going to be a problem. All paper assets, notes, C.D.’S, bonds, the majority of shares the S&P 500, etc. will all lose value in buying power as hyper inflation enters the scene.
Our food, our fuel, clothing, cars, everything we use everyday will see dramatic increases in cost as we enter this stage.
Taxes in every area will go up, as all the governments get more and more desperate to hold on to employees and programs.
The only thing I see as being cheaper, or at least staying within reasonable price ranges, are our tech toys. I call them that because we love our toys but they are in no way a necessity of life.
So if some of you thought we had gloom and doom on this thread before just watch the next few months, Ha Ha
According to the Wall Street Guru’s the stock market entered an official bear market yesterday.
Wouldn't surprise me if they just wanted your shares cheap.
Hey Fish,
Most of what I had was not cheap, mostly high tech shares, and calls, at 52-week highs. I sold because I am not riding this horse down the mountain.
It should be clear to one and all that there is NO such thing as a long term hold that makes any money in this stock market.
The S&P was 1,552.87 on March 24, 2000 and is at 1,457.7 today and that is with these guys replaceing all the losers over the last seven years. We could very easyily see the S&P below 1,400 in the next few weeks.
Being a stock trader is very dangerous, and should be considered by one and all as gambling, but being a “long term” investor in this market is really foolish. Even if your shares went up an average of 6% a year, real inflation is running 8% plus and then you have to pay taxes when you sell.
This market is full of government stats that are nothing but lies, large financial institutions creating fiat wealth out of thin air, and more crooks selling paper than there is in most prisons. Probably 30% of the value of the S&P is pyramid schemes, of hedges that can never be covered, cdo’s, siv’s, default credit obligations, forward sales of in ground reserves, off the book credit card defaults, toxic mortgages that can never be redeemed because the value of the underlying property is now 20% below the mortgage value.
All the pundits keep saying this markets average is cheap at 16 to 17 PE’S but that’s only because they included all the dogs to bring the averages down. Look at the really good companies and they are very expensive.
If you looked at our market from outside the U.S. dollar this stock market has already suffered terrible losses in all the other currencies around the world.
<< <i>For what it is worth here is what the inflation calculator says about $800.00 in 1979.
What cost $800.00 in 1979 would cost $2388.45 in 2006.
Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2006 and 1979,
they would cost you $800.00 and $267.96 respectively.
The Inflation Calculator ! >>
What's it say about gold $35 in 1974? You guys always picking a peak to make a point, that's like taking the NASDAQ at over 5000 in 2000 and doing a comparsion. It makes an arguement but in reality it a controled analysis to rig results IMO. Seems to me timing is eveything since you'd still be down half in the NASDAQ and dropping. The dot coms drove the NASDAQ just like the Hunt brothers drove the PM's.
Here's the answer from your own calculator:
What cost $35 in 1974 would cost $153.42 in 2006.
Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2006 and 1974,
they would cost you $35 and $7.98 respectively.
Do you want to do another calculation
I know the gold bugs are awaiting another break out above the current level. I can't fault their analysis. But we've been in a cyclical stocks bear market since 2001. The last 18 months or so was just an up cycle within the broader bear. There is still unfinished hand wringing to do from 2001 that Greenspan's rate lowering left unfinished. Is this the time? Contrarily, analyst Cliff Droke would agree with Gisele and say that the pull back is now overblown and to expect a stock and dollar rally sometime in the near future. All I know for sure is that there are still immense issues with the liquidity of the major banks. That to me is the driving force behind the current market movements.
roadrunner
"all I want for Xmass is a ten ounce gold bar"...Yeah, baby.
Edited to add: Hey, what about inflation linked bonds?