All I saw was a lot of "hot air" (pun intended) and something about "The FBI, in a complaint, said Rockwell has two felony convictions against him for conspiracy to commit extortion in 1981 and 1982."
<< <i> Fuel cell technology is nowhere near soup yet. Hydrogen is costly to produce, the savings and mileage not nearly what it's backers are claiming and you'd need a fuel tank the size of a covered full sized pickup truck just to match existing vehicles currently on the road. >>
Actually fuel cell technology is mainstream right now, at least for household electricity generation.
The Edison company I work for sells whole house generation units that run just from natural gas based on a "proton exchange membrane". They do this through a company called Plug Power, although there are other companies doing the same thing. The fuel cell generator kicks on automatically when the power in the house goes out and you could take your whole house off the grid and sell power back to the electric company using this device. Not sure what challenges there would be in putting this into a car though.
<< <i>For about $5 billion we can build coal gasification plants. General Electric already has the technology. It will take about 300 plants to supply the US with all the oil we need.
Think of how many jobs this would create? How much the economy would expand? How much extra money could be devoted to other projects? Problem is no one has the balls to make it happen. >>
My understanding is that in the past, they were not able to extract enough oil to even cover the amount of energy expended in the process.... at least using the old method of digging the oil shale out of the ground, then processing in grinders, retorts, etc. I used to live in western Colorado in the late seventies... it was kind of surreal when driving through Parachute Colorado, and seeing the homes, condos, buildings, etc... that for the most part sat abandoned. It was a boom area when they were trying to extract the oil, but abandoned when they realized that they could not do so without net energy loss. Nearly a ghost town with lots of new construction.
However, now there does exist several new technologies that CAN extract the oil and at a profit. I remember one method involved 'freezing' the oil shale in place to 'crack' or shatter the lavers, etc., then a liquid of some sort (or steam?) could be pumped through wells that would extract the oil and then be removed at another well. Another technique may have involved bio technology to convert or process the oil into an easier form to retrieve. I think that a couple of small projects may actually be ongoing to test these new methods further, with plans to upscale to usable plants as the processes are further improved.
cohodk is right... the technology is here and ready to be used. (and I do recall that GE is one of the players with the new methods).
Each year the BDM estimates about 1 MILL new jobs for the economy. These reports often fuel the markets. Any adjustments to the numbers come months later when they aren't front page news.
With the Nov jobs report listing 90,000 new jobs, it's comforting to know that 51,000 of those came from the BDM (ie out of thin air). November only showed a -3K change in construction which seems a tad optimistic. But with the previous few months all being positive, the trend makes sense. Against the current economic backdrop, it would not seem logical that financial services, mfg, and services in general showing growth. Next month the BDM will inject approx the same numbers for Dec's report. January's BDM will be very negative so that report will be interesting come February. But from Feb-June the BDM adds an average of 185,000 jobs each month. Hey, we're already off to a good start in 2008!
RR - at risk of sounding picky, I don't think "out of thin air" is quite the right characterization, in the sense that there does appear to be a need for an adjustment -- it is trying to correct for real jobs that will be missing in the data in normal circumstances.
It is reasonable to ask, however, how well this adjustment works in situations where there have been abrupt changes in a trend, in particular, in the case of a sudden deterioration of the economy.
Considering that the yearlyl BDM "births" have continued to make up a higher and higher % of the total jobs reported, and have in all but one year (2002) been revised downwards, I'd say there's some sleight of hand going on here. Another thing that is puzzling is how hard it is to find the Birth Death Model chart on the BLS website. Considering it's the largest input to reported jobs, you'd think it would be made more readily available. BDM creation is already at a record 1.06 MILLION jobs for 2007 with December's numbers not even in yet. Figure 1.1 MILLION for 2007 when it's all done...that's around 140,000 more jobs than initially predicted during 2006. With so many markets shrinking you wonder how the black box did it. The president is sure lucky to have this model in his back pocket. "out of thin air" is as good as saying "marked to model" when it comes to derivatives. And the BDM is all about modeling 1 MILLION jobs in the bank regardless where the real job market is.
The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend. BLS will continue researching alternative model-based techniques for the net birth/death component; it is likely to remain as the most problematic part of the estimation process.
In other words, this model was rolled out in 2000-2003 in order to help keep the numbers up. For now, the BDM assumes clear sailing ahead regardless what the actual economy is doing. It will probably reflect the true jobs picture a few years after the next recession is over. The BLS will certainly not want to use a somewhat static model during a period of "real" jobs expansion. A new model will be rolled out for that period.
An update from Richard Benson:
For those familiar with the government releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") just posted a benchmark data revision that showed the total number of workers employed on the payroll survey was 300,000 less than originally estimated for March 2007 (900,000 versus the 1,200,000 that was reported). By the time the dust settles, and later benchmark revisions come in for the whole year, it is likely that all of the jobs added by the BLS Birth/Death Model in 2007 will be fictitious. This could mean there hasn’t been any job growth at all! Without the fiction of job growth, you can imagine how much worse it will be for consumer income, spending, and sentiment not to mention business investment plans.
The reason employment is weak is because at least 40 percent of all job growth was tied directly or indirectly to housing. With housing in free fall, the solid job growth reported by the BLS Payroll Survey simply does not make sense.
The Department of Commerce keeps statistical estimates such as Personal Income, which is based on the estimated number of workers in the BLS Payroll Survey. So now, based on the revisions to the BLS Payroll Survey for March (and other data), revised Personal Income (wages, salaries, interest income, etc.) grew at an annual rate of only 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007, not the 4.5 percent originally reported. That’s three percent less in Personal Income. These imaginary workers with no Personal Income will not be shopping this December or anytime soon, so we can expect to see lower retail sales and corporate profits. Income never made, can't be spent.
As these pretend workers turn out to be a myth, they will eventually show up in the government statistics. When that happens, corporate sales will suffer and the financial markets will take notice. This is also a reminder that for statistics, the government's game is to report the false glowing numbers to the financial markets in the full light of day, and then report the corrections and horrible truth in the dead of night, and hope no one notices.
The technology is the conversion of COAL into oil/gasoline, ect.
You are right about the Western oil shales. These are not even worth a second look even with the current price of oil. But we do have a tremendous wealth of accessible coal. But no one wants own of these plants in their back yard. The solution is to use state or govt land. Of coure you will upset environmentalist, but the US Govt owns more than enough land---much of which is desert.
Problem is no politician would propose a $3 trillion spending project, and out Middle Eastern (friends) would become quite upset. If it were me I would fly them a giant bird.
There is too much invested in the exploration and transportation of oil from the current sources. Even if there was a way to turn water into gasoline it would never get funding as it would upset the current power structure and the flow of profits to those who control the game.
Things may seem screwed up at times but they are the way they are because those in control are benefiting from it.
Comments from a 20 year mortagage lender insider. A long article but worth reading if you can understand all the mortgage mumbo-jumbo loan technicals. Hint....it ain't rosy.
Sorry for the partial link, but our ever-present "nanny" will not allow the word "market" followed by the word "watch." It's just too obscene. Type in the "t," copy, paste, then link up.
Well my Friends another year has gone by. Last year about this time the markets looked like this:
MARKETS DEC 2006:
Gold ……..$648.75
Silver…….$13.97
Euro……...$1.3338
Dow………12,194
This morning our markets look as follows:
Gold…….. $800
Silver…….$14.38
Euro……..$147.00
Dow……... 13,625
As we do each year we would all appreciate anyone’s predictions for 2008.
Here are some of my predictions for next year:
Gold will break $1,000 next year.
Silver will break $17.00
The stock market will have its ups and downs but the S&P will again remain the worst constant investment in eight years.
The Fed will keep lowering rates trying to save the big boys and their derivatives, but several large financial institutions will go bankrupt, and credit card derivatives will be the next crises.
The public will start to see the real affects of inflation and begin to scream about high prices in everything.
Oil we break $110 per barrel.
The housing market across the U.S. will continue to lose value, even with interest rates dropping.
The Democrats will NOT win total control of both houses and the Presidency.
The dollar will get weaker still and many more countries will look for ways to convert their dollars into hard assets, as the public around the world screams about selling out properties and companies for dollars.
Yes, it is time for the annual prognosticators rally. My turn:
Gold is good. More demand for PM from individuals will challenge the paper people yet junior miners with good, productive operations that don't forward sell should have a very good year as should those that buy equity in these operations. It's just so hard to put real cash into the equities market when PM can be had just for the buying. Gold will probably not appreciate as well as it has over the last 2 years but it should steadily appreciate as it has been doing for the last 20 years or so. Demand is steady and it is coming from the little people, the new middle class across BRIC. $1000 gold...sure but it might be late in the year before we see it. We still have to get past $850 and hold it for a couple of months before we can press on.
US economy is going to correct. We haven't seen the really bad stuff just yet, methinks. Once we get to the credit account derivitives bust and once the credit markets really shut down for the middle class then we will see wailing and moaning like never before. It will be ugly, really ugly. Politicians will try to "feel the pain" of the slippage prone middle class and then there will be wailing and moaning about American values and why isn't the government helping with more entitlements and handouts and then there will be a huge disconnect between those that "...have a dream" and those that have the actual where with all. It would not suprise me if folk started showing up in the street with huge rallys and demands and heart tugging speeches about why they got shut out. It's that reality thing...we are in for some problems from the shutting down of credit markets for questionable small businesses, the denial of credit to dream prone middle classers, the escalating cost of medical care, gasoline, food, tires, cable service, cell phone service...this year will be painful for many, many people and that's before the banks shut down the master card/visa/discover accounts that are deliquent and stop loaning new car money to people with poor credit.
On the other hand, immigrant class should do quite well. They have not been pampered by entitlements or easy credit or any benefit of an organized society. They are fleeing poverty, political corruption, third world blues, no jobs, no money, no hope. Given even the slightest amount of assistance and an opportunity to prosper...the immigrant class will do extreemly well in '08 as well as into the near future and there are a lot of them. Look for immigrant class representation to do well in the polls, maybe not so much in '08 but watch for them, they're coming. As bizzare as this may sound...it may be a very good strategy to help the immigrant class and to invest in their well being. A) they would be grateful, they will be productive, C) they will be registered and accounted for, and I'm sure the list could be populated further. The new immigrant class may well displace the marginal edges of the lower middle class sending them tumbling into welfare and entitlements where before they had three color tv's and relatively new car. Look for the immigrant class to be more heavily marketed as low end retailers look to make up for the disappearance of the heavily compromised US middle class.
Prosperity is here for those that are balanced in their portfolios. Savers will be rewarded in '08 by virtue of the stability it confers to prudent folk. Those that can manage some investment and hold a good job should be starting to look for stability instead of home mortgage atm's and they will. The top 10% of the US population earns 100K/yr and these people should continue to do well. They will be heavily marketed and many attempts will be made to get them to hock their earnings in some investment scenarios but watch for them to keep the buks close to home and that means less stock market investment, less fanciful lifestyles, more thoughtful investing. Also, look for the 10% class to do more donations (tax deductible) and charity work because the need will be great and even a little bit of donating and contributing will provide meaningful, news worthy results. The wild spending is mostly over for those folk as they witness the wolf coming to their neighbor's homes, they will be more prudent and this will result in prosperity in the landscape of a faltering middle class.
New things...more bio fuels will come but look for the home energy sector to be reborn in '08. Look for solar panels, wind farms, desalinization plants, and access to improvements of this nature. As we get to a price point for light crude, we should start seeing coal gassification get talked about more but we do have to pay homage to our middle eastern friends so we won't shut them out or threaten to shut them out. Look for people to start pecking away at domestic energy consumption though, probably with home energy costs. This should be a must have technology in '08 for those that can afford to lower their energy costs and reliability.
Silver...it's at the bottom of the list, again. Equity markets...nah. Commodities...yeah!
--The economy will slip into negative growth at least one quarter and potentially two quarters (i.e., a recession). The unemployment rate will rise to around 5.5%. World economic growth will also slow down measurably.
--The dollar will strengthen to around 1.25 dollars per euro and around 1.8 dollars per UK pound.
--Gold will decline to $550 an ounce and silver to $10.
--Oil will decline to $65 a barrel.
--Stock markets will decline with the Dow slipping back to around 11,000.
--Housing prices will continue to decline in certain areas (Massachusetts, California, Washington DC, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida, Michigan) but will remain stable in other areas (most of the Midwest including Chicago, most of the South, and the Pacific Northwest).
--Based on the negative economic news, Hillary Clinton will probably win the presidency, UNLESS the Republicans nominate Rudy Giuliani, in which case the election will be a toss-up.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
In general, metals higher and stocks stagnant or lower. The previous all-time high for gold will get taken out in 2008.
So, how do we arrange our finances, and our % interest in coins, bullion, with the upcoming year? If GoldSaint is right, or even close, then we continue, if we can, to hold and increase our numismatic holdings.
The $64,000 question indeed. For safety I see more shifting of numismatic holdings towards the gold side of the equation ($10's and $20's - both generics and better pieces). While increasing inflation should lift numismatic holdings they can also fall apart once the "R" word hits. If the numbers weren't already fudged I'd bet we would already have negative growth on the books. But keeping this stat positive is good for coins....as is gold moving up. It's possible that the winner in 2008/2009 could be great numismatic coins...then again they could become illiquid if a major drop in financial market liquidity occurs. We're in unchartered territory with derivatives. No one knows the outcome of this.... except that it will not be pleasant...and probably not a soft landing either.
“Only those like Heritage, or an advanced group of new thinkers, will save the coin industry.”
Gee Dale, What happened to my optimistic buddy?
The coin market is indeed a strange one to figure out.
My opinion is we will have serious stagflation, and in that case coins should do very well.
Being so far ahead in our thinking traps us into thought patterns that make us forget the outside world. I think it is very important here to remember that the public is not really aware of what is going on yet, and are certainly not in the markets yet!
Excellent posts on alternative energy. This should be a national priority on par with the Apollo program of the '60's, but the current Administration and Congress have their heads in the sand, or are too beholden to the status quo. Does anyone here know of or participate in a forum similar to this one, dedicated to alternative energy? Thanks.
<< <i>Excellent posts on alternative energy. This should be a national priority on par with the Apollo program of the '60's, but the current Administration and Congress have their heads in the sand, or are too beholden to the status quo. Does anyone here know of or participate in a forum similar to this one, dedicated to alternative energy? Thanks. >>
Oil is up nearly seven fold in a few years.
Maintenence of population levels is wholly dependent on the availability of oil or a suitable alternative. There is some evidence that oil production could be near a peak and about to plummet. The sole alternative with cur- rent technology is coal/ fuel cell. (probably augmented by nuclear)
UBS reported a $10 BILL dollar loss today in a derivatives fund. Just think that that there are hundreds or thousands of players out there, will thousands of funds all littered with this stuff.
Interesting quote from Jim Sinclair today. Basically he said, if your bank tells you they have no derivatives or SIVs risk....they're lying.
<< <i>UBS reported a $10 BILL dollar loss today in a derivatives fund. Just think that that there are hundreds or thousands of players out there, will thousands of funds all littered with this stuff.
Interesting quote from Jim Sinclair today. Basically he said, if your bank tells you they have no derivatives or SIVs risk....they're lying.
roadrunner >>
All this "bad" news in the last month and gold hasnt done squat.
Inflation at the producer level rose at the fastest rate in 20+ years yet gold, silver, copper all down 1.5 to 3% today. Whats up wit dat??!!
I am not bashing gold just wnating to know why it isnt performing better. And please dont tell me because it is being manipulated. I want to hear a concrete fundamental reason.
Well I know one thing for sure the last big drop you had the ECB's selling 59 million ounces in one day that caused the drop. It didn't last for long though, same old story prop up the fiat currency at the expense of PM's.
I wouldn't be surprised if todays drop will be CB selling too. They tend to keep their powered dry and move as a unit to prop up currencies.
I guess people cant read. I said alot of bad news has been out in the last MONTH. A MONTH ago gold was 800. Today it is still 800.
i read it just fine. ;o) gold has done well maintaining its value around 800 during this time frame. I myself was expecting quite a fall to around 700. it has beat my expectations.
were you expecting another significant percentage gain after just gaining a ton over the last year?
850 is better. Gold price is in a reconsolidation phase from what I read. In lay terms, it must get it's feet under it again after a heady rise. The value of 800 USD seems to be the mark right now while this reconsolidation phase is in progress. The action is that there has been a lot of gold bought and sold not only by funds but also by individuals and as with the Central Banks, there is probably a fair amount of sorting out "where we are" to be done. Also, the spotlight is focused on credit markets and banking funds so none of the big players is working with gold so much as they are busy playing with paper assets. This will go on for a little while unless something really scares the hell out of people such that they rush to hard assets. Once it breaks 850 USD then we should see new growth but if never gets to and holds 850 for a couple of months, it likely will not progress beyond that area for the near term. Anticipate steady appreciation if it gets to 850 but if it doesn't, I anticipate that it will hold 800 comfortably. The daily movement v.s. price/oz is barely a part of 1% so realistically, gold is flat. It would be nice if folk let it lag to 760 or there abouts so I can do a little reconsolidation of my personal, albeit, meager stash but I'm getting as much as I can without stretching.
JMHO but of course I will defer to cohodk's charts any day. It would be nice to see volume sold v.s. price over the last 6 mos to see if anything shows up that we can draw a conclusion from. It would be even nicer to see just who, other than individuals, is buying.
<< <i> Inflation at the producer level rose at the fastest rate in 20+ years yet gold, silver, copper all down 1.5 to 3% today. Whats up wit dat??!!
I am not bashing gold just wnating to know why it isnt performing better. And please dont tell me because it is being manipulated. I want to hear a concrete fundamental reason. >>
Investors are discounting the inflation numbers because the real concern is an economic slowdown -- not inflation. In an economic slowdown, gold prices (as well as other asset prices) would be expected to decline.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
I predict the 10th anniversary Reverse and Enhanced reverse proof sets will sell out. I know it's platinum and I know the economy is down, but something tells me this particular set is a numismatist's dream come true. 3,000 out of 30,000 sold in the first half hour
<< <i>Well I know one thing for sure the last big drop you had the ECB's selling 59 million ounces in one day that caused the drop. It didn't last for long though, same old story prop up the fiat currency at the expense of PM's.
I wouldn't be surprised if todays drop will be CB selling too. They tend to keep their powered dry and move as a unit to prop up currencies. >>
This could be a possibility especially in light of the consorted efforts of the central banks to ease the credit tightness.
Todays movement is quite interesting given the PPI#s. If tomorrows CPI shows similiar inflation and gold/silver/copper react the same then I believe something else may be going on.
I think the predictions all hinge on the election. It's possible for the markets to decline because they don't like candidate A or B, or it's possible that uncertainty of who will win causes the markets to recede. A clear leader who has predictable policies may be a good thing for 2008.
Assuming a even-steven Hilliry vs Juliani scenario, I bet the markets are not in too happy of a mood: stocks range-bound in a 20% window, oil already peaked and WILL decline, and gold flat in a 25% range window. Housing decline will continue to make headlines as the government bailout frenzy gets rolling even bigger than today. Maybe the candidate proposing the biggest bailout will Win?
Negative TIC, weak and falling dollar, falling bond prices, $450 Trill in derivatives, massive liquidity injections (averaging over 10% per year since 1996), gold demand exceeding mined supply for several years, mortgage maret liquidity falling apart, major banks getting ready to fail (JPM, Citi) etc, etc. etc. I can't think of one gold negative factor in the current economy, unless one takes the B(L)S stats at face value. When we have to start selling off $7 BILL dollar hunks of our precious banks to Middle Eastern countries (Citigroup), you know there are major issues.
And the reason why gold doesn't behaved lock step with the dollar day in and day out? (subsitute weeks as well)....is because of FED and Bank manipulation. Sorry if that is not a good enough reason for you. The fundamentals have won out over the past 6 years but in any given month or months, gold can be pushed down or held even by the tricks of the PPT (painting charts at 10 minutes to closing, selling short with no intention of producing the shares, phony gold leasing stats, etc).
So the moral of the story is, ever since the constraints of any sort of gold standard were removed in 1974, depression is no longer possible. Severe "stagflation" is the worst that can happen (and that is pretty bad in general, but probably good for bullion prices).
A gold standard should have no bearing on whether a depression can or cannot occur again. On the time line, we are barely into the start of "trying" times. That will be made quite apparent by 2008.
The "good" times of the past 10 years (ie "so called growth) were based on "debt," not productivity and not hard work. The debt is coming home to roost. We've never had this kind of debt spread throughout the economy before. To expect this to end similar to other recessionary periods is amazingly optimistic. The PPT has been shooting their ammo all over the place to keep things in check. It's not clear to me why they even care about the gold price when Banks and Brokerages are on the hook for TRILLIONS. Based on the performance of PM's vs the major stock indicies over the past 6 yrs, it still seems to be a good place to hide out (a real asset that is blowing away paper equities). The only concern of the FED is to keep the current problem hidden from view as they allow time for their crony banks to divest of their liabilities.
"smoebody is gonna want that dough"..... but nobody is gonna have it.
Pretty much leaves the FED in the position to print and print and print away. There is no other option. You think these banks and brokerages are gonna come clean on their true losses? Of course not. The game will be to hold off on claiming those losses for as many months or years as they can do without going to jail. Within a year those liabilities need to make it to the balance sheet. They still won't be marked to market as required as liberties will be taken for as long as they can get away with it. The game for these banks is to survive any way they can.
That 30 yr gold chart is indeed funny. Please post the 30 year DOW or S&P charts from 1966 to 1987 for something just as funny. Or you can pick DOW 1929 to 1954 for a similar "funny" period. And those funny charts allow for tossing out the losers along the way. The gold chart is never allowed to toss out the "loser" companies.
What is relevant is current performance....the last 6 years. That's where money is being made or lost today. What happened 30 yrs ago really doesn't change what is happening today. Stocks up 35% or so in 6 yrs. (with the dollar down 40%....ie a net LOSS) while gold is up 210%. Now that's......
Im not sure where this 59 million ounce number came from. At 24000oz per ton thats 2000 tons. 4 times the allowed annual for all of Europe. I also believe that would never be sold in ONE DAY.
I believe I heard something like 59mill euro in gold was dumped.
<< <i>Im not sure where this 59 million ounce number came from. At 24000oz per ton thats 2000 tons. 4 times the allowed annual for all of Europe. I also believe that would never be sold in ONE DAY.
I believe I heard something like 59mill euro in gold was dumped.
Either way I dont trust too many announcements >>
q]Im not sure where this 59 million ounce number came from. At 24000oz per ton thats 2000 tons. 4 times the allowed annual for all of Europe. I also believe that would never be sold in ONE DAY.
I believe I heard something like 59mill euro in gold was dumped.
Either way I dont trust too many announcements >>
Sorry here's the link I read several weeks ago and I was wrong only a mear 42 tons....... Who know's what the other CB's did
]Please take out the %20 between Market and Watch in the link it's thinging it's a dirty word!
<< <i>790...clean your sights, check your chamber and clip, safety off, stand ready. >>
And silver at $13.80........ It's the mid-December swoon. At least some things have remained consistent. I wasn't sure if we'd be seeing it this year as volatile as the entire financial world is this time around.
Which means, buying opportunity!
Figure on a strong run up beginning in mid-January with new highs in March if we remain true to form based on the usual calendar cycles.
Keep your powder dry.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Well consumer prices are hotter than expected. But we still have a down day for gold/silver. The dollar is strong. Perhaps the relative economic outperformance of the global economies is waning.
Lets look back over the past 5 years. The dollar has hit all time lows against most currencies, the credit markets are in turmoil, inflation readings are at 25yr highs, yet gold has not hit relative new highs and forget about inflation adjusted. Why is this? I think if in 2002 we knew all that would happen that we would all say gold would be a no brainer for $2000. Yet it hasnt. I know the gold bulls will say, "Just give it more time", but a 7 year rally for anything is a long time.
Again, I am not trying to bash gold--I dont care where it goes--just trying to provoke thought.
It's kind of like the bull stock market that ran for over a decade and then fell to half and is now back up running but some still seem to think it's where you should be. Goverments and paper trades hide a lot of behind the scene fundmentals IMO. Just like in the Wizzard of Oz how long can they keep it going without being discovered. It's a tough call where one should be but I wouldn't put everything in just 1 or 2 places.
<< <i>It's kind of like the bull stock market that ran for over a decade and then fell to half and is now back up running but some still seem to think it's where you should be. Goverments and paper trades hide a lot of behind the scene fundmentals IMO. Just like in the Wizzard of Oz how long can they keep it going without being discovered. It's a tough call where one should be but I wouldn't put everything in just 1 or 2 places. >>
Somewhere around 80% of the gains are made in the last 20% of nearly every bull run.
Back in 2002 I thought we'd be seeing $850 gold and $17.50 silver in the last quarter of 2007. I wasn't that far off and I have a good idea of where those two will be in the last quarter of 2009. That's what I'm looking towards. We'll get to see that 2K gold, bet on it, but we have some more time to go yet. There aren't a lot of places to put your money when you get down to it. I want nothing to do with the DOW and real estate is just now beginning to get hammered, so it's got a ways to go down yet before we see that stabilize. Nothing wrong with precious metals, and if you bought most of your holdings a few years ago, I'd think you'd just want to hold a bit longer for now. That's certainly my plan.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
“That 30 yr gold chart is indeed funny. Please post the 30-year DOW or S&P charts from 1966 to 1987”
Who can list the companies that made up the Dow in 1975?
We have been through this before; you CANNOT compare the Dow, or even the S&P 500, to the Gold markets because the paper markets are constantly manipulated by taking out weak companies and replacing them with strong companies!!!
All of those “GURU’s” on wall street that keep saying stocks have always out performed everything else, are a bunch of crooks, that just happen to forget that nearly every year the big boys change the companies around so that the numbers can look as good as possible. Even doing that has not worked for the S&P 500 in the last 8 years.
So lets do this with our Gold chart, when the price of gold gets weak lets just substitute, oil, or corn, or platinum, and call it all GOLD!
"We have been through this before; you CANNOT compare the Dow, or even the S&P 500, to the Gold markets because the paper markets are constantly manipulated by taking out weak companies and replacing them with strong companies"
We've been through it before, but we may have to go through it again.
Of course you can't put your money in a basket of stocks and expect them to do well untended over a 30 year period. The basket will change -- this is the essence of "creative destruction." Changing the basket is not manipulation, it is a matter of keeping the index up with the nature of the current economy. If you had kept a portfolio that broadly followed the index, you would have achieved a return that tracked the index.
Comments
crystal ion engine
By pure chance, we met the guy in Goldfield, NV a month ago with the inventor.
About all I will say is it was "interesting"
We got kicked out of a coffee shop where he was showing the video of it.
??????????????????????????
Oh heck... I forgot the video
Video ????
All I saw was a lot of "hot air" (pun intended) and something about "The FBI, in a complaint, said Rockwell has two felony convictions against him for conspiracy to commit extortion in 1981 and 1982."
I think this guy's a crank.
<< <i>
Fuel cell technology is nowhere near soup yet. Hydrogen is costly to produce, the savings and mileage not nearly what it's backers are claiming and you'd need a fuel tank the size of a covered full sized pickup truck just to match existing vehicles currently on the road.
>>
Actually fuel cell technology is mainstream right now, at least for household electricity generation.
The Edison company I work for sells whole house generation units that run just from natural gas based on a "proton exchange membrane". They do this through a company called Plug Power, although there are other companies doing the same thing. The fuel cell generator kicks on automatically when the power in the house goes out and you could take your whole house off the grid and sell power back to the electric company using this device.
Not sure what challenges there would be in putting this into a car though.
<< <i>For about $5 billion we can build coal gasification plants. General Electric already has the technology. It will take about 300 plants to supply the US with all the oil we need.
Think of how many jobs this would create? How much the economy would expand? How much extra money could be devoted to other projects? Problem is no one has the balls to make it happen. >>
My understanding is that in the past, they were not able to extract enough oil to even cover the amount of energy expended in the process.... at least using the old method of digging the oil shale out of the ground, then processing in grinders, retorts, etc. I used to live in western Colorado in the late seventies... it was kind of surreal when driving through Parachute Colorado, and seeing the homes, condos, buildings, etc... that for the most part sat abandoned. It was a boom area when they were trying to extract the oil, but abandoned when they realized that they could not do so without net energy loss. Nearly a ghost town with lots of new construction.
However, now there does exist several new technologies that CAN extract the oil and at a profit. I remember one method involved 'freezing' the oil shale in place to 'crack' or shatter the lavers, etc., then a liquid of some sort (or steam?) could be pumped through wells that would extract the oil and then be removed at another well. Another technique may have involved bio technology to convert or process the oil into an easier form to retrieve. I think that a couple of small projects may actually be ongoing to test these new methods further, with plans to upscale to usable plants as the processes are further improved.
cohodk is right... the technology is here and ready to be used. (and I do recall that GE is one of the players with the new methods).
Each year the BDM estimates about 1 MILL new jobs for the economy. These reports often fuel the markets. Any adjustments to the numbers come months later when they aren't front page news.
With the Nov jobs report listing 90,000 new jobs, it's comforting to know that 51,000 of those came from the BDM (ie out of thin air).
November only showed a -3K change in construction which seems a tad optimistic. But with the previous few months all being positive, the trend makes sense. Against the current economic backdrop, it would not seem logical that financial services, mfg, and services in general showing growth. Next month the BDM will inject approx the same numbers for Dec's report. January's BDM will be very negative so that report will be interesting come February. But from Feb-June
the BDM adds an average of 185,000 jobs each month. Hey, we're already off to a good start in 2008!
roadrunner
It is reasonable to ask, however, how well this adjustment works in situations where there have been abrupt changes in a trend, in particular, in the case of a sudden deterioration of the economy.
Your Money
Gold’s Quirk: It’s Volatile, but Holders Feel Secure
NYT Link
Considering that the yearlyl BDM "births" have continued to make up a higher and higher % of the total jobs reported, and have in all but one year (2002) been revised downwards, I'd say there's some sleight of hand going on here. Another thing that is puzzling is how hard it is to find the Birth Death Model chart on the BLS website.
Considering it's the largest input to reported jobs, you'd think it would be made more readily available. BDM creation is already at a record 1.06 MILLION jobs for 2007 with December's numbers not even in yet. Figure 1.1 MILLION for 2007 when it's all done...that's around 140,000 more jobs than initially predicted during 2006. With so many markets shrinking you wonder how the black box did it. The president is sure lucky to have this model in his back pocket. "out of thin air" is as good as saying "marked to model" when it comes to derivatives. And the BDM is all about modeling
1 MILLION jobs in the bank regardless where the real job market is.
Historical BDM back to 2001
From the BLS website:
The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend. BLS will continue researching alternative model-based techniques for the net birth/death component; it is likely to remain as the most problematic part of the estimation process.
In other words, this model was rolled out in 2000-2003 in order to help keep the numbers up. For now, the BDM assumes clear sailing ahead regardless what the actual economy is doing. It will probably reflect the true jobs picture a few years after the next recession is over. The BLS will certainly not want to use a somewhat static model during a period of "real" jobs expansion. A new model will be rolled out for that period.
An update from Richard Benson:
For those familiar with the government releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") just posted a benchmark data revision that showed the total number of workers employed on the payroll survey was 300,000 less than originally estimated for March 2007 (900,000 versus the 1,200,000 that was reported). By the time the dust settles, and later benchmark revisions come in for the whole year, it is likely that all of the jobs added by the BLS Birth/Death Model in 2007 will be fictitious. This could mean there hasn’t been any job growth at all! Without the fiction of job growth, you can imagine how much worse it will be for consumer income, spending, and sentiment not to mention business investment plans.
The reason employment is weak is because at least 40 percent of all job growth was tied directly or indirectly to housing. With housing in free fall, the solid job growth reported by the BLS Payroll Survey simply does not make sense.
The Department of Commerce keeps statistical estimates such as Personal Income, which is based on the estimated number of workers in the BLS Payroll Survey. So now, based on the revisions to the BLS Payroll Survey for March (and other data), revised Personal Income (wages, salaries, interest income, etc.) grew at an annual rate of only 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007, not the 4.5 percent originally reported. That’s three percent less in Personal Income. These imaginary workers with no Personal Income will not be shopping this December or anytime soon, so we can expect to see lower retail sales and corporate profits. Income never made, can't be spent.
As these pretend workers turn out to be a myth, they will eventually show up in the government statistics. When that happens, corporate sales will suffer and the financial markets will take notice. This is also a reminder that for statistics, the government's game is to report the false glowing numbers to the financial markets in the full light of day, and then report the corrections and horrible truth in the dead of night, and hope no one notices.
roadrunner
The technology is the conversion of COAL into oil/gasoline, ect.
You are right about the Western oil shales. These are not even worth a second look even with the current price of oil. But we do have a tremendous wealth of accessible coal. But no one wants own of these plants in their back yard. The solution is to use state or govt land. Of coure you will upset environmentalist, but the US Govt owns more than enough land---much of which is desert.
Problem is no politician would propose a $3 trillion spending project, and out Middle Eastern (friends) would become quite upset. If it were me I would fly them a giant bird.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Things may seem screwed up at times but they are the way they are because those in control are benefiting from it.
Comments from a 20 year mortagage lender insider. A long article but worth reading if you can understand all the mortgage mumbo-jumbo loan technicals. Hint....it ain't rosy.
Sorry for the partial link, but our ever-present "nanny" will not allow the word "market" followed by the word "watch." It's just too obscene. Type in the "t," copy, paste, then link up.
roadrunner
nevermind
Well my Friends another year has gone by.
Last year about this time the markets looked like this:
MARKETS DEC 2006:
Gold ……..$648.75
Silver…….$13.97
Euro……...$1.3338
Dow………12,194
This morning our markets look as follows:
Gold…….. $800
Silver…….$14.38
Euro……..$147.00
Dow……... 13,625
As we do each year we would all appreciate anyone’s predictions for 2008.
Here are some of my predictions for next year:
Gold will break $1,000 next year.
Silver will break $17.00
The stock market will have its ups and downs but the S&P will again remain the worst constant investment in eight years.
The Fed will keep lowering rates trying to save the big boys and their derivatives, but several large financial institutions will go bankrupt, and credit card derivatives will be the next crises.
The public will start to see the real affects of inflation and begin to scream about high prices in everything.
Oil we break $110 per barrel.
The housing market across the U.S. will continue to lose value, even with interest rates dropping.
The Democrats will NOT win total control of both houses and the Presidency.
The dollar will get weaker still and many more countries will look for ways to convert their dollars into hard assets, as the public around the world screams about selling out properties and companies for dollars.
If GoldSaint is right, or even close, then we continue, if we can, to hold and increase our numismatic holdings.
There will be obstacles to doing that:
Oil at over $100/barrel, and going higher, will push the world into recession.
The Democrats will raise taxes, and eliminate the tax concessions for the upper class.
The wealth effect will decrease dramatically, and a feeling of uncertainty may drive out all hobbyists, but the very rich.
New tecnology, inspired by the revamped WEB, and faster communication, will breed a new industry, that will control all aspects of our everyday lives.
Only those like Heritage, or an advanced group of new thinkers, will save the coin industry.
Gold is good. More demand for PM from individuals will challenge the paper people yet junior miners with good, productive operations that don't forward sell should have a very good year as should those that buy equity in these operations. It's just so hard to put real cash into the equities market when PM can be had just for the buying. Gold will probably not appreciate as well as it has over the last 2 years but it should steadily appreciate as it has been doing for the last 20 years or so. Demand is steady and it is coming from the little people, the new middle class across BRIC. $1000 gold...sure but it might be late in the year before we see it. We still have to get past $850 and hold it for a couple of months before we can press on.
US economy is going to correct. We haven't seen the really bad stuff just yet, methinks. Once we get to the credit account derivitives bust and once the credit markets really shut down for the middle class then we will see wailing and moaning like never before. It will be ugly, really ugly. Politicians will try to "feel the pain" of the slippage prone middle class and then there will be wailing and moaning about American values and why isn't the government helping with more entitlements and handouts and then there will be a huge disconnect between those that "...have a dream" and those that have the actual where with all. It would not suprise me if folk started showing up in the street with huge rallys and demands and heart tugging speeches about why they got shut out. It's that reality thing...we are in for some problems from the shutting down of credit markets for questionable small businesses, the denial of credit to dream prone middle classers, the escalating cost of medical care, gasoline, food, tires, cable service, cell phone service...this year will be painful for many, many people and that's before the banks shut down the master card/visa/discover accounts that are deliquent and stop loaning new car money to people with poor credit.
On the other hand, immigrant class should do quite well. They have not been pampered by entitlements or easy credit or any benefit of an organized society. They are fleeing poverty, political corruption, third world blues, no jobs, no money, no hope. Given even the slightest amount of assistance and an opportunity to prosper...the immigrant class will do extreemly well in '08 as well as into the near future and there are a lot of them. Look for immigrant class representation to do well in the polls, maybe not so much in '08 but watch for them, they're coming. As bizzare as this may sound...it may be a very good strategy to help the immigrant class and to invest in their well being. A) they would be grateful,
Prosperity is here for those that are balanced in their portfolios. Savers will be rewarded in '08 by virtue of the stability it confers to prudent folk. Those that can manage some investment and hold a good job should be starting to look for stability instead of home mortgage atm's and they will. The top 10% of the US population earns 100K/yr and these people should continue to do well. They will be heavily marketed and many attempts will be made to get them to hock their earnings in some investment scenarios but watch for them to keep the buks close to home and that means less stock market investment, less fanciful lifestyles, more thoughtful investing. Also, look for the 10% class to do more donations (tax deductible) and charity work because the need will be great and even a little bit of donating and contributing will provide meaningful, news worthy results. The wild spending is mostly over for those folk as they witness the wolf coming to their neighbor's homes, they will be more prudent and this will result in prosperity in the landscape of a faltering middle class.
New things...more bio fuels will come but look for the home energy sector to be reborn in '08. Look for solar panels, wind farms, desalinization plants, and access to improvements of this nature. As we get to a price point for light crude, we should start seeing coal gassification get talked about more but we do have to pay homage to our middle eastern friends so we won't shut them out or threaten to shut them out. Look for people to start pecking away at domestic energy consumption though, probably with home energy costs. This should be a must have technology in '08 for those that can afford to lower their energy costs and reliability.
Silver...it's at the bottom of the list, again. Equity markets...nah. Commodities...yeah!
--The economy will slip into negative growth at least one quarter and potentially two quarters (i.e., a recession). The unemployment rate will rise to around 5.5%. World economic growth will also slow down measurably.
--The dollar will strengthen to around 1.25 dollars per euro and around 1.8 dollars per UK pound.
--Gold will decline to $550 an ounce and silver to $10.
--Oil will decline to $65 a barrel.
--Stock markets will decline with the Dow slipping back to around 11,000.
--Housing prices will continue to decline in certain areas (Massachusetts, California, Washington DC, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida, Michigan) but will remain stable in other areas (most of the Midwest including Chicago, most of the South, and the Pacific Northwest).
--Based on the negative economic news, Hillary Clinton will probably win the presidency, UNLESS the Republicans nominate Rudy Giuliani, in which case the election will be a toss-up.
So, how do we arrange our finances, and our % interest in coins, bullion, with the upcoming year?
If GoldSaint is right, or even close, then we continue, if we can, to hold and increase our numismatic holdings.
The $64,000 question indeed. For safety I see more shifting of numismatic holdings towards the gold side of the
equation ($10's and $20's - both generics and better pieces). While increasing inflation should lift numismatic holdings
they can also fall apart once the "R" word hits. If the numbers weren't already fudged I'd bet we would already have
negative growth on the books. But keeping this stat positive is good for coins....as is gold moving up. It's possible
that the winner in 2008/2009 could be great numismatic coins...then again they could become illiquid if a major drop
in financial market liquidity occurs. We're in unchartered territory with derivatives. No one knows the outcome of this....
except that it will not be pleasant...and probably not a soft landing either.
roadrunner
“Only those like Heritage, or an advanced group of new thinkers, will save the coin industry.”
Gee Dale,
What happened to my optimistic buddy?
The coin market is indeed a strange one to figure out.
My opinion is we will have serious stagflation, and in that case coins should do very well.
Being so far ahead in our thinking traps us into thought patterns that make us forget the outside world.
I think it is very important here to remember that the public is not really aware of what is going on yet, and are certainly not in the markets yet!
<< <i>Excellent posts on alternative energy. This should be a national priority on par with the Apollo program of the '60's, but the current Administration and Congress have their heads in the sand, or are too beholden to the status quo. Does anyone here know of or participate in a forum similar to this one, dedicated to alternative energy? Thanks. >>
Oil is up nearly seven fold in a few years.
Maintenence of population levels is wholly dependent on the availability
of oil or a suitable alternative. There is some evidence that oil production
could be near a peak and about to plummet. The sole alternative with cur-
rent technology is coal/ fuel cell. (probably augmented by nuclear)
It is simply insane to be sitting and twiddling.
Just think that that there are hundreds or thousands of players out there, will thousands of funds all littered with this stuff.
Interesting quote from Jim Sinclair today. Basically he said, if your bank tells you they have no derivatives or SIVs risk....they're lying.
roadrunner
<< <i>UBS reported a $10 BILL dollar loss today in a derivatives fund.
Just think that that there are hundreds or thousands of players out there, will thousands of funds all littered with this stuff.
Interesting quote from Jim Sinclair today. Basically he said, if your bank tells you they have no derivatives or SIVs risk....they're lying.
roadrunner >>
All this "bad" news in the last month and gold hasnt done squat.
Inflation at the producer level rose at the fastest rate in 20+ years yet gold, silver, copper all down 1.5 to 3% today. Whats up wit dat??!!
I am not bashing gold just wnating to know why it isnt performing better. And please dont tell me because it is being manipulated. I want to hear a concrete fundamental reason.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
define better.
<< <i><why is gold not performing better?>
define better.
I guess people cant read. I said alot of bad news has been out in the last MONTH. A MONTH ago gold was 800. Today it is still 800.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I wouldn't be surprised if todays drop will be CB selling too. They tend to keep their powered dry and move as a unit to prop up currencies.
i read it just fine. ;o) gold has done well maintaining its value around
800 during this time frame. I myself was expecting quite a fall to
around 700. it has beat my expectations.
were you expecting another significant percentage gain after just
gaining a ton over the last year?
JMHO but of course I will defer to cohodk's charts any day. It would be nice to see volume sold v.s. price over the last 6 mos to see if anything shows up that we can draw a conclusion from. It would be even nicer to see just who, other than individuals, is buying.
<< <i> Inflation at the producer level rose at the fastest rate in 20+ years yet gold, silver, copper all down 1.5 to 3% today. Whats up wit dat??!!
I am not bashing gold just wnating to know why it isnt performing better. And please dont tell me because it is being manipulated. I want to hear a concrete fundamental reason. >>
Investors are discounting the inflation numbers because the real concern is an economic slowdown -- not inflation. In an economic slowdown, gold prices (as well as other asset prices) would be expected to decline.
<< <i>Well I know one thing for sure the last big drop you had the ECB's selling 59 million ounces in one day that caused the drop. It didn't last for long though, same old story prop up the fiat currency at the expense of PM's.
I wouldn't be surprised if todays drop will be CB selling too. They tend to keep their powered dry and move as a unit to prop up currencies. >>
This could be a possibility especially in light of the consorted efforts of the central banks to ease the credit tightness.
Todays movement is quite interesting given the PPI#s. If tomorrows CPI shows similiar inflation and gold/silver/copper react the same then I believe something else may be going on.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think the predictions all hinge on the election. It's possible for the markets to decline because they don't like candidate A or B, or it's possible that uncertainty of who will win causes the markets to recede. A clear leader who has predictable policies may be a good thing for 2008.
Assuming a even-steven Hilliry vs Juliani scenario, I bet the markets are not in too happy of a mood: stocks range-bound in a 20% window, oil already peaked and WILL decline, and gold flat in a 25% range window. Housing decline will continue to make headlines as the government bailout frenzy gets rolling even bigger than today. Maybe the candidate proposing the biggest bailout will Win?
Dave,
this is our Xmas gift from the market! Just a few weeks buying opportunity before we head to $900 next year!
What I am looking for is the answer to what are these new Fed auctions, what is being auctioned, and who cares?
<< <i><why is gold not performing better?>
define better.
Negative TIC, weak and falling dollar, falling bond prices, $450 Trill in
derivatives, massive liquidity injections (averaging over 10% per year since 1996), gold demand exceeding mined supply for several years, mortgage maret liquidity falling apart, major banks getting ready to fail (JPM, Citi) etc, etc. etc. I can't think of one gold negative factor in the current economy, unless one takes the B(L)S stats at face value. When we have to start selling off $7 BILL dollar hunks of our precious banks to Middle Eastern countries (Citigroup), you know there are major issues.
And the reason why gold doesn't behaved lock step with the dollar day in and day out? (subsitute weeks as well)....is because of FED and Bank manipulation. Sorry if that is not a good enough reason for you. The fundamentals have won out over the past 6 years but in any given month or months, gold can be pushed down or held even by the tricks of the PPT (painting charts at 10 minutes to closing, selling short with no intention of producing the shares, phony gold leasing stats, etc).
So the moral of the story is, ever since the constraints of any sort of gold standard were removed in 1974,
depression is no longer possible. Severe "stagflation" is the worst that can happen (and that is pretty bad in general,
but probably good for bullion prices).
A gold standard should have no bearing on whether a depression can or cannot occur again. On the time line, we are barely into the start of "trying" times. That will be made quite apparent by 2008.
The "good" times of the past 10 years (ie "so called growth) were based on "debt," not productivity and not hard work. The debt is coming home to roost. We've never had this kind of debt spread throughout the economy before. To expect this to end similar to other recessionary periods is amazingly optimistic. The PPT has been shooting their ammo all over the place to keep things in check. It's not clear to me why they even care about the gold price when Banks and Brokerages are on the hook for TRILLIONS. Based on the performance of PM's vs the major stock indicies over the past 6 yrs, it still seems to be a good place to hide out (a real asset that is blowing away paper equities). The only concern of the FED is to keep the current problem hidden from view as they allow time for their crony banks to divest of their liabilities.
roadrunner
...........and *somebody* is gonna want their money back!
I knew it would happen.
Pretty much leaves the FED in the position to print and print and print away. There is no other option. You think these banks and brokerages are gonna come clean on their true losses? Of course not. The game will be to hold off on claiming those losses for as many months or years as they can do without going to jail. Within a year those liabilities need to make it to the balance sheet. They still won't be marked to market as required as liberties will be taken for as long as they can get away with it. The game for these banks is to survive any way they can.
That 30 yr gold chart is indeed funny. Please post the 30 year DOW or S&P charts from 1966 to 1987 for something just as funny. Or you can pick DOW 1929 to 1954 for a similar "funny" period. And those funny charts allow for tossing out the losers along the way.
The gold chart is never allowed to toss out the "loser" companies.
What is relevant is current performance....the last 6 years. That's where money is being made or lost today. What happened 30 yrs ago really doesn't change what is happening today. Stocks up 35% or so in 6 yrs. (with the dollar down 40%....ie a net LOSS) while gold is up 210%. Now that's......
roadrunner
I believe I heard something like 59mill euro in gold was dumped.
Either way I dont trust too many announcements
<< <i>Im not sure where this 59 million ounce number came from. At 24000oz per ton thats 2000 tons. 4 times the allowed annual for all of Europe. I also believe that would never be sold in ONE DAY.
I believe I heard something like 59mill euro in gold was dumped.
Either way I dont trust too many announcements >>
q]Im not sure where this 59 million ounce number came from. At 24000oz per ton thats 2000 tons. 4 times the allowed annual for all of Europe. I also believe that would never be sold in ONE DAY.
I believe I heard something like 59mill euro in gold was dumped.
Either way I dont trust too many announcements >>
Sorry here's the link I read several weeks ago and I was wrong only a mear 42 tons....... Who know's what the other CB's did
]Please take out the %20 between Market and Watch in the link it's thinging it's a dirty word!
ECB sell[
<< <i>790...clean your sights, check your chamber and clip, safety off, stand ready. >>
And silver at $13.80........ It's the mid-December swoon. At least some things have remained consistent. I wasn't sure if we'd be seeing it this year as volatile as the entire financial world is this time around.
Which means, buying opportunity!
Figure on a strong run up beginning in mid-January with new highs in March if we remain true to form based on the usual calendar cycles.
Keep your powder dry.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Lets look back over the past 5 years. The dollar has hit all time lows against most currencies, the credit markets are in turmoil, inflation readings are at 25yr highs, yet gold has not hit relative new highs and forget about inflation adjusted. Why is this? I think if in 2002 we knew all that would happen that we would all say gold would be a no brainer for $2000. Yet it hasnt. I know the gold bulls will say, "Just give it more time", but a 7 year rally for anything is a long time.
Again, I am not trying to bash gold--I dont care where it goes--just trying to provoke thought.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It's kind of like the bull stock market that ran for over a decade and then fell to half and is now back up running but some still seem to think it's where you should be. Goverments and paper trades hide a lot of behind the scene fundmentals IMO. Just like in the Wizzard of Oz how long can they keep it going without being discovered. It's a tough call where one should be but I wouldn't put everything in just 1 or 2 places. >>
Somewhere around 80% of the gains are made in the last 20% of nearly every bull run.
Back in 2002 I thought we'd be seeing $850 gold and $17.50 silver in the last quarter of 2007. I wasn't that far off and I have a good idea of where those two will be in the last quarter of 2009. That's what I'm looking towards. We'll get to see that 2K gold, bet on it, but we have some more time to go yet. There aren't a lot of places to put your money when you get down to it. I want nothing to do with the DOW and real estate is just now beginning to get hammered, so it's got a ways to go down yet before we see that stabilize. Nothing wrong with precious metals, and if you bought most of your holdings a few years ago, I'd think you'd just want to hold a bit longer for now. That's certainly my plan.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
“That 30 yr gold chart is indeed funny. Please post the 30-year DOW or S&P charts from 1966 to 1987”
Who can list the companies that made up the Dow in 1975?
We have been through this before; you CANNOT compare the Dow, or even the S&P 500, to the Gold markets because the paper markets are constantly manipulated by taking out weak companies and replacing them with strong companies!!!
All of those “GURU’s” on wall street that keep saying stocks have always out performed everything else, are a bunch of crooks, that just happen to forget that nearly every year the big boys change the companies around so that the numbers can look as good as possible. Even doing that has not worked for the S&P 500 in the last 8 years.
So lets do this with our Gold chart, when the price of gold gets weak lets just substitute, oil, or corn, or platinum, and call it all GOLD!
We've been through it before, but we may have to go through it again.
Of course you can't put your money in a basket of stocks and expect them to do well untended over a 30 year period. The basket will change -- this is the essence of "creative destruction." Changing the basket is not manipulation, it is a matter of keeping the index up with the nature of the current economy. If you had kept a portfolio that broadly followed the index, you would have achieved a return that tracked the index.