@wondercoin said:
‘’A total of 185 were graded 70, as struck, but some were visibly different.’’
My very strict stickering service (which is why I have declined all offers to date to head up a modern stickering service) would have stickered 60/182 of the 70 grade coins inspected. Detailed notes set aside for future reference. But, again, I personally operate under the opinion that all 70’s are not created equal (and grade out “high end” and “low end” the same as every other grade from 60-69). Others publicly state they can’t even tell the difference between a 69 and 70 graded coin they inspect! 🤣
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
Just so you know, that is the purpose of the "like" icon below each post.
@NJCoin said:
"Probably not sell at a loss" is undoubtedly true today, but not necessarily in the future if one's financial circumstances change, people inherit them, etc. Anything at all is always only worth what someone is willing to pay at a given point in time. Yesterday, these were worth $24-40K. Tomorrow's number is really anyone's guess. Glut or no glut.
The point of my statement was that the class of people who can buy $50k coins typically have other means of raising capital when desperately needed that will keep them from accepting very low ball offers and one occurrence of this scenario does not mean the the other 229 coins have lost any value.
@NJCoin said:
"Probably not sell at a loss" is undoubtedly true today, but not necessarily in the future if one's financial circumstances change, people inherit them, etc. Anything at all is always only worth what someone is willing to pay at a given point in time. Yesterday, these were worth $24-40K. Tomorrow's number is really anyone's guess. Glut or no glut.
The point of my statement was that the class of people who can buy $50k coins typically have other means of raising capital when desperately needed that will keep them from accepting very low ball offers and one occurrence of this scenario does not mean the the other 229 coins have lost any value.
Very true. But people fall into and out of various economic classes all the time. People's priorities change. People pass away. Items get stolen.
And yes, it is absolutely isolated data points that establish value for an entire population of similar items. During the housing crisis, that was the logic used by my town's tax assessor in refusing to use foreclosures and short sales to establish value in property tax appeals.
Each sale was its own isolated special case. At least according to the assessor, who did not want to acknowledge reality and give homeowners tax relief.
It took two years to establish that this was, in fact, the new, lower, real estate market. One "special" sale at a time, since the market was locked and "normal" transactions were not taking place. Every property does not need to be sold to establish its market value.
If and when one of these goes down in value, the odds are close to 100% that 227 others will follow. Coin #1 and coin #230 are in their own markets, likely to track the others, but not as closely tied as #114 will be to #152.
Using your logic, these have nowhere to go but up. Forever.
History tells us that is very rare in any asset class, let alone modern, artificially rare coins. As @jmlanzaf astutely points out, since this was highly successful for the Mint, it is extremely unlikely that they will be able to control themselves and stop before they saturate the market. Which will not do anything for the long term value of any of them.
All I will say, with the benefit of retrospection, is that I'm still thrilled with my one of one auction win of this five kg proof silver medallion from the Royal Mint. At less than half the cost of a Flowing Hair privy gold dollar:
@jmlanzaf said:
They have already "kept going". This isn't the first scarce privy coin (V75). It's not even the first privy coin this year. It's the first auction, only 2 years after three Royal Mint started doing annual pattern auctions.
@NJCoin said:
"Probably not sell at a loss" is undoubtedly true today, but not necessarily in the future if one's financial circumstances change, people inherit them, etc. Anything at all is always only worth what someone is willing to pay at a given point in time. Yesterday, these were worth $24-40K. Tomorrow's number is really anyone's guess. Glut or no glut.
The point of my statement was that the class of people who can buy $50k coins typically have other means of raising capital when desperately needed that will keep them from accepting very low ball offers and one occurrence of this scenario does not mean the the other 229 coins have lost any value.
Very true. But people fall into and out of various economic classes all the time. People's priorities change. People pass away. Items get stolen.
And yes, it is absolutely isolated data points that establish value for an entire population of similar items. During the housing crisis, that was the logic used by my town's tax assessor in refusing to use foreclosures and short sales to establish value in property tax appeals.
Each sale was its own isolated special case. At least according to the assessor, who did not want to acknowledge reality and give homeowners tax relief.
It took two years to establish that this was, in fact, the new, lower, real estate market. One "special" sale at a time, since the market was locked and "normal" transactions were not taking place. Every property does not need to be sold to establish its market value.
I don't think that is a great example. These coins are now scattered to the winds with owners in a wide area of affluent economic situations. Aside from a major economic depression or demand destroying event, there is nothing that I can foresee that will broadly impact the market for Privy FH gold coins.
If and when one of these goes down in value, the odds are close to 100% that 227 others will follow. Coin #1 and coin #230 are in their own markets, likely to track the others, but not as closely tied as #114 will be to #152.
Using your logic, these have nowhere to go but up. Forever.
That's not my logic. Sideways is also option which is probably closer to what will happen. In a lot of ways and for a lot of products, the mint issue price seems to establish a pricing floor. That is the only assertion I am making.
History tells us that is very rare in any asset class, let alone modern, artificially rare coins. As @jmlanzaf astutely points out, since this was highly successful for the Mint, it is extremely unlikely that they will be able to control themselves and stop before they saturate the market. Which will not do anything for the long term value of any of them.
While that is a possibility, the opposite could also happen. While this was a success the money from this sale is not significant to the mint. There is no monetary incentive to do these again. The big reward probably comes from the hype and publicity which will probably be the driver of future similar offers. I would hope that the mint is wise enough to realize that to maintain the level of publicity and benefit of such a product offering, they can't just start cranking them out and probably have to space them at least 3 years apart.
We graded the entire auction to report on the quality of every coin (3 were in NY so we only saw 227 coins) and gave all the information (for free) to one of our very best customers to use in his bidding. This also included the information on the (11) 69’s we actually graded 70 (PCGS is as good as it gets in the grading of important modern rarities like these). Our customer bought 0 coins armed with this information! 😆. The close spread on 69’s vs. 70’s didn’t justify even winning the super high quality 69’s in his book and I can’t say I blame him. He placed hundreds of thousands of dollars in bids across the entire auction (even bidding strongly live on many of them) but set his limits and didnt go over them. He felt the coins (in the end) didn’t offer the proper return he was personally looking for. That said- we see that winning bidders may have already made strong returns on the resale of some of the coins. No worries. The information may come in handy one day in the future.
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I think prices will continue to rise. I don't forsee more than a handful selling them for less than they paid at auction, and if they do, there was an underbidder just below it.
This is very different from a coin that originally sold for hundreds, and then went up in price and sells for thousands. Like the 1995-W Proof Silver, where someone who but it cheap can sell fot less than the full retail price, as the profit is already built in.
@wondercoin said:
‘’A total of 185 were graded 70, as struck, but some were visibly different.’’
My very strict stickering service (which is why I have declined all offers to date to head up a modern stickering service) would have stickered 60/182 of the 70 grade coins inspected. Detailed notes set aside for future reference. But, again, I personally operate under the opinion that all 70’s are not created equal (and grade out “high end” and “low end” the same as every other grade from 60-69). Others publicly state they can’t even tell the difference between a 69 and 70 graded coin they inspect! 🤣
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
Totally "on the money" comments.
I agree that a large percentage should not have been 70's.
These coins will hold their value except perhaps any extra premium associated with mintage number as I'm not sure how much the secondary market cares about the serial number. There will never be a glut of these on the market and the people who own them will probably not be mass-liquidating them and will probably not sell them at a loss.
We will see. A big group were purchaased by dealers for resale. Let's see how that goes.
@pointfivezero said:
All I will say, with the benefit of retrospection, is that I'm still thrilled with my one of one auction win of this five kg proof silver medallion from the Royal Mint. At less than half the cost of a Flowing Hair privy gold dollar:
Very insightful, Mitch, especially around the 69’s that looked closer or more accurately a grade up!
Good on the winning bidders and even better for those that can resell at a higher price. If it helps my standard no privy, so be it.
@Goldbully said:
LCR Coin or Gold Bureau.....that's quite a spread.
Is a black NGC holder that valuable?
Perhaps LCR's listing is pre-privy auctions and the Gold Bureau just listed the coin and wants to ride the privy wave.
There are more than a dozen of the non-privies available for less than $5,695 on eBay and more from other dealers even for less. The auctions are also resulting in prices gradually dropping. There are a lot of these for sale.
I don't really think there is a "privy wave" improving pricing, just a variety of dealer asking prices.
As far as the privies, there are already a dozen listed on eBay for sale.
Yeah. The only problem with eBay is the infinite ways to manipulate it, if one is inclined to do so.
The sale might be real, or might be nothing more than an illusion designed to stimulate FOMO interest. It also might be at the listed price, or at any other price accepted by the seller.
Like an inkblot, people can and will see whatever they want. I happen to think that eBay is not an ideal venue for a $50K transaction like this. Particularly not hours after the listed item was sold at a well publicized public auction for 30% less. So I'm just not a believer.
David Copperfield can make it look like the Statue of Liberty is disappearing, and I can see it with my own eyes. Doesn't make it real.
Yeah. The only problem with eBay is the infinite ways to manipulate it, if one is inclined to do so.
The sale might be real, or might be nothing more than an illusion designed to stimulate FOMO interest. It also might be at the listed price, or at any other price accepted by the seller.
Like an inkblot, people can and will see whatever they want. I happen to think that eBay is not an ideal venue for a $50K transaction like this. Particularly not hours after the listed item was sold at a well publicized public auction for 30% less. So I'm just not a believer.
David Copperfield can make it look like the Statue of Liberty is disappearing, and I can see it with my own eyes. Doesn't make it real.
Just what does "This item out of stock" really mean on eBay?
Yeah. The only problem with eBay is the infinite ways to manipulate it, if one is inclined to do so.
The sale might be real, or might be nothing more than an illusion designed to stimulate FOMO interest. It also might be at the listed price, or at any other price accepted by the seller.
Like an inkblot, people can and will see whatever they want. I happen to think that eBay is not an ideal venue for a $50K transaction like this. Particularly not hours after the listed item was sold at a well publicized public auction for 30% less. So I'm just not a believer.
David Copperfield can make it look like the Statue of Liberty is disappearing, and I can see it with my own eyes. Doesn't make it real.
Just what does "This item out of stock" really mean on eBay?
It means someone entered a quantity of more than one and the number is down to zero.
PCGS has graded 100% of the gold privies and nearly 20% of all the non-privy golds. I could not find NGC summary numbers for the non-privy golds because the certificate verification site is down temporarily. It seems like maybe 30-40% of these "10,000" have been sent for grading.
@GoldFinger1969 said: NJ Coin, do you have a prediction for where 70's/69's will be in 3 months ? How about a year or so from now ?
Sorry no. I had strong feelings about the auction, based on the prior auction as well as on the performance of similar items, such as the silver privy and V75 AGE.
OTOH, intermediate and long term performance on something like this is anyone's guess. No really good examples, and strong cases can be made either way.
There are, and will only ever be, 230 of them, so the sky could be the limit. Or, it's nothing more than an artificial modern rarity, so who needs it, and the only folks who will ever have any interest at current pricing are those who bought at the auction or from a reseller immediately thereafter.
Seriously, either scenario is equally plausible, with very divergent financial results. If I had the means and desire, I'd have bought one directly from SB on Thursday to add to my collection, without regard to how they might do in the future.
I'd have zero interest in chasing it now. As an investment for similar money, I'd stick to a classic coin with an established track record.
Can someone help me. If i wanted to send in the 230th Anniversary Flowing Hair High Relief Gold Coin non privy voin for grading. What service class should I choose?
Should i choose Regular or Modern, which is $40 or $35 to grade, with a max insured value of $2500. Or do i need to go up to Express which is $70?
Plus another $19 for First Strike whichever service i pick.
All in it will be $86 under Modern and $131 under express
First Strike Deadline is tommorrow so need to decide if it is worth it.
@hiijacker said:
Can someone help me. If i wanted to send in the 230th Anniversary Flowing Hair High Relief Gold Coin non privy voin for grading. What service class should I choose?
Should i choose Regular or Modern, which is $40 or $35 to grade, with a max insured value of $2500. Or do i need to go up to Express which is $70?
Plus another $19 for First Strike whichever service i pick.
All in it will be $86 under Modern and $131 under express
First Strike Deadline is tommorrow so need to decide if it is worth it.
Thanks
You must use Express service because the coin is over $2,500.......$70
First Strike is $18.
Gold Shield and TrueView included.
edited to add: I paid $131....your number is correct.
I really don't collect US coins any more. That said, I have bought some of the recent gold restrikes, i.e. Mercury dime, Standing quarter, Walker and Kennedy halves. They are really nice. Someday I will add the FH coin. I don't want them in slabs but in the original mint packaging. I would find the slab a non-starter for me to buy it.
@hiijacker said:
You think it is worth $131 to get it graded first strike?
It is totally your call. A lot of people just keep the coin and the original government materials as is.
So far, at PCGS there have been 1,861 graded, as first strike, first day of issue, advanced release, etc., all which are within the 30-day window indicating basically early delivery to the grading service.
Only 47 have been graded with the "base" label, with no first strike indicator so far.
IMO if you sell now your net might be around $4,500 for the coin raw, or a little over $5,000 if a 70.
If you get a graded 69, it might be worth about the same, or maybe even less than the ungraded coin, factoring your grading costs.
The $18 added cost for the first strike label is more popular for modern coins, but the real question is do you want to grade it at all?
If I was a dealer and I had a base and a First Strike for sale, I would sell the First Strike for at least $100 more than the base. Whether other dealers think like that or whether it translates to value when you sell, hard to say. but $18 on a $4-5k coin is a pittance and probably worth doing and you'll probably get it back when you sell.
@hiijacker said:
You think it is worth $131 to get it graded first strike?
The odds are you will get a 70.
If you have any plans on selling down the road, a PCGS graded PR70DCAM slab carries a lot of weight vs. raw in the OGP.
You can always crack it out and put it back in the Mint capsule whenever you like.
As @wondercoin would say, "Just my 2 cents." 😊
@ProofCollection said:
If I was a dealer and I had a base and a First Strike for sale, I would sell the First Strike for at least $100 more than the base. Whether other dealers think like that or whether it translates to value when you sell, hard to say. but $18 on a $4-5k coin is a pittance and probably worth doing and you'll probably get it back when you sell.
If you were a dealer, you'd still it for what someone is willing to pay. For some coins, there is no 1strike premium at all.
@wondercoin said:
I would add- expect similar results to what the U.S. Mint received- roughly 70%-75% of the coins grading 70.
Why does it show closer to 90% now at PCGS? This includes prescreened coins as well as any min. Grade 70 submissions.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
In the past you could not have min grade 70 submissions, has that changed? or maybe that was just bulk?
You can set any minimum you want. You might be charged full price for any under your minimum though.
Not true. Retail cannot specify 70 as a minimum. And those who can specify a 70 minimum pay little or nothing for coins that don't make the grade. If dealers had to pay either way, there would be no reason to specify a minimum, since they could always crack the coin out later if necessary.
@wondercoin said:
‘’And those who can specify a 70 minimum pay little or nothing for coins that don't make the grade’’
This is false.
Wondercoin.
They pay less...
We went back and forth on this a while ago in another thread. There is no "less," given how little they pay for moderns on a bulk submission.
My price ATS was $8, with a special label. "Less" was "$0" for coins that did not grade 70. Anything greater than that would not make sense, given I would only have been paying $8 in the first place.
I'll bet anything the Big Boys pay even less. I'm as wrong about this as I was about it being a thing in the first place, after you pointed to T&Cs saying minimum 70 grades were not a thing, and before @HeatherBoyd chimed in to confirm that certain submitters were indeed allowed to specify 70 as a minimum grande.
This is not a theoretical argument we need to engage in. I'm telling you it happened. At one of the big shows last summer (2023), either FUN or ANA.
I asked because I saw other people doing it. With the Morgan and Peace Dollars. I didn't do it because I did not have, and could not get, the 100 coins necessary to hit the minimum at the show. It's why Morgan and Peace 70s were so widely available, in 2023, at such reasonable prices. High 70 grading rates, and dirt cheap grading fees for quantity.
@wondercoin said:
‘’And those who can specify a 70 minimum pay little or nothing for coins that don't make the grade’’
This is false.
Wondercoin.
They pay less...
We went back and forth on this a while ago in another thread. There is no "less," given how little they pay for moderns on a bulk submission.
My price ATS was $8, with a special label. "Less" was "$0" for coins that did not grade 70. Anything greater than that would not make sense, given I would only have been paying $8 in the first place.
I'll bet anything the Big Boys pay even less. I'm as wrong about this as I was about it being a thing in the first place, after you pointed to T&Cs saying minimum 70 grades were not a thing, and before @HeatherBoyd chimed in to confirm that certain submitters were indeed allowed to specify 70 as a minimum grande.
This is not a theoretical argument we need to engage in. I'm telling you it happened. At one of the big shows last summer (2023), either FUN or ANA.
I asked because I saw other people doing it. With the Morgan and Peace Dollars. I didn't do it because I did not have, and could not get, the 100 coins necessary to hit the minimum at the show. It's why Morgan and Peace 70s were so widely available, in 2023, at such reasonable prices. High 70 grading rates, and dirt cheap grading fees for quantity.
They generally charge a small fee for each reject. Are you really going to argue with Wondercoin who is a bulk submitter?
@wondercoin said:
‘’And those who can specify a 70 minimum pay little or nothing for coins that don't make the grade’’
This is false.
Wondercoin.
They pay less...
We went back and forth on this a while ago in another thread. There is no "less," given how little they pay for moderns on a bulk submission.
My price ATS was $8, with a special label. "Less" was "$0" for coins that did not grade 70. Anything greater than that would not make sense, given I would only have been paying $8 in the first place.
I'll bet anything the Big Boys pay even less. I'm as wrong about this as I was about it being a thing in the first place, after you pointed to T&Cs saying minimum 70 grades were not a thing, and before @HeatherBoyd chimed in to confirm that certain submitters were indeed allowed to specify 70 as a minimum grande.
This is not a theoretical argument we need to engage in. I'm telling you it happened. At one of the big shows last summer (2023), either FUN or ANA.
I asked because I saw other people doing it. With the Morgan and Peace Dollars. I didn't do it because I did not have, and could not get, the 100 coins necessary to hit the minimum at the show. It's why Morgan and Peace 70s were so widely available, in 2023, at such reasonable prices. High 70 grading rates, and dirt cheap grading fees for quantity.
They generally charge a small fee for each reject. Are you really going to argue with Wondercoin who is a bulk submitter?
Yes, because I'm not imagining it. I'm also not saying it happened at PCGS, if that's the hair you and @wondercoin want to split.
All I'm saying is that all the grading services vigorously compete with each other in the modern space, including the great CACG, since it generates a TON of revenue for them. People speculated CACG wouldn't touch moderns, since they don't sticker them. We all saw how that went, given the economics of grading in 2024.
If NGC is offering bulk submitters pricing PCGS won't match, that would mean that PCGS's private equity overlords are leaving a lot of money on the table. Which I would not believe for a second, no matter who said it.
Because there is no significant market premium for one of the Big 3 services over another in moderns, so I don't believe bulk submitters would pay more for one service over another. Until @HeatherBoyd stepped up, no one benefiting from PCGS minimum 70 submissions even acknowledged it was a thing.
So, yes, I'll argue with @wondercoin. Maybe I know something he doesn't (very unlikely). Maybe I'm saying something he doesn't want people to know (possible). And finally, sure, maybe NGC offers terms and pricing PCGS doesn't match (also possible, but unlikely).
$8 per modern coin with a 100 coin minimum, with no charge for coins that don't grade 70. Believe it or not. Not false. True.
What's a "small fee for each rejection," when the grading fee is only $8 to begin with? $0.50? $2? Why?
I'm telling you, it was $0! I'm pretty sure you are thinking about what they do with classics, where the grading fees are much higher, and there is a lot of room to charge something nominal for a coin that is returned ungraded.
And, the $8 was the price offered to me. I'd guess large dealers receive even better pricing, although I obviously have absolutely no way to know that for sure, one way or the other.
Just common sense that 500, 1,000, or more coins would receive even better pricing than 100. It's a reason coins that retailed from the Mint in OGP at $90 were widely available in 70 slabs from all the major grading services last year for around $125 each.
‘’Is it? I was offered exactly that deal last year ATS. Not "little." Nothing. Are they really doing things our hosts are not?’’
I didn’t realize a group of board members here, on this particular thread, were having an in-depth discussion about NGC grading and submission policies. If that was the case, my apologies for commenting on such policies.
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
jmlanzaf: PCGS is in the business of grading submitted coins. Not to “not grade the majority of coins submitted to them”. Hence, I believe they need to ensure even the largest bulk submitters pay for the grading of the vast majority of all coins submitted. This is not accomplished by offering “little” or “tiny” fees for not grading coins. Just the opposite. Hence, my objection to such a suggestion.
One year, my grading bills to PCGS (mostly for “bulk”) totaled about $600,000.00. And, I was certainly not the largest submitter that year, so I am not bragging about that. But, if there was a plan to pay “little” or “small” (or even “no”) fees to get the higher grade coins, I certainly didn’t know about it! 🤣
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
jmlanzaf: PCGS is in the business of grading submitted coins. Not to “not grade the majority of coins submitted to them”. Hence, I believe they need to ensure even the largest bulk submitters pay for the grading of the vast majority of all coins submitted. This is not accomplished by offering “little” or “tiny” fees for not grading coins. Just the opposite. Hence, my objection to such a suggestion.
One year, my grading bills to PCGS (mostly for “bulk”) totaled about $600,000.00. And, I was certainly not the largest submitter that year, so I am not bragging about that. But, if there was a plan to pay “little” or “small” (or even “no”) fees to get the higher grade coins, I certainly didn’t know about it! 🤣
Wondercoin.
I didn't mean "little" in the aggregate. But, correct me if I'm wrong, but my recollection is that the fee for coins that fail to meet the minimum is lower than the cost of the slab fees for the ones that meet the standard. It is certainly not zero, as was suggested by our friend. There is most definitely an "inspection fee" but it is lower than the slab fee. As i recall, it was $3 to $5 a few years ago at the two services for $1 silver commems. Is that not true?
@wondercoin said:
‘’And those who can specify a 70 minimum pay little or nothing for coins that don't make the grade’’
This is false.
Wondercoin.
They pay less...
We went back and forth on this a while ago in another thread. There is no "less," given how little they pay for moderns on a bulk submission.
My price ATS was $8, with a special label. "Less" was "$0" for coins that did not grade 70. Anything greater than that would not make sense, given I would only have been paying $8 in the first place.
I'll bet anything the Big Boys pay even less. I'm as wrong about this as I was about it being a thing in the first place, after you pointed to T&Cs saying minimum 70 grades were not a thing, and before @HeatherBoyd chimed in to confirm that certain submitters were indeed allowed to specify 70 as a minimum grande.
This is not a theoretical argument we need to engage in. I'm telling you it happened. At one of the big shows last summer (2023), either FUN or ANA.
I asked because I saw other people doing it. With the Morgan and Peace Dollars. I didn't do it because I did not have, and could not get, the 100 coins necessary to hit the minimum at the show. It's why Morgan and Peace 70s were so widely available, in 2023, at such reasonable prices. High 70 grading rates, and dirt cheap grading fees for quantity.
They generally charge a small fee for each reject. Are you really going to argue with Wondercoin who is a bulk submitter?
Yes, because I'm not imagining it. I'm also not saying it happened at PCGS, if that's the hair you and @wondercoin want to split.
All I'm saying is that all the grading services vigorously compete with each other in the modern space, including the great CACG, since it generates a TON of revenue for them. People speculated CACG wouldn't touch moderns, since they don't sticker them. We all saw how that went, given the economics of grading in 2024.
If NGC is offering bulk submitters pricing PCGS won't match, that would mean that PCGS's private equity overlords are leaving a lot of money on the table. Which I would not believe for a second, no matter who said it.
Because there is no significant market premium for one of the Big 3 services over another in moderns, so I don't believe bulk submitters would pay more for one service over another. Until @HeatherBoyd stepped up, no one benefiting from PCGS minimum 70 submissions even acknowledged it was a thing.
So, yes, I'll argue with @wondercoin. Maybe I know something he doesn't (very unlikely). Maybe I'm saying something he doesn't want people to know (possible). And finally, sure, maybe NGC offers terms and pricing PCGS doesn't match (also possible, but unlikely).
$8 per modern coin with a 100 coin minimum, with no charge for coins that don't grade 70. Believe it or not. Not false. True.
What's a "small fee for each rejection," when the grading fee is only $8 to begin with? $0.50? $2? Why?
I'm telling you, it was $0! I'm pretty sure you are thinking about what they do with classics, where the grading fees are much higher, and there is a lot of room to charge something nominal for a coin that is returned ungraded.
And, the $8 was the price offered to me. I'd guess large dealers receive even better pricing, although I obviously have absolutely no way to know that for sure, one way or the other.
Just common sense that 500, 1,000, or more coins would receive even better pricing than 100. It's a reason coins that retailed from the Mint in OGP at $90 were widely available in 70 slabs from all the major grading services last year for around $125 each.
I don't know or care what the one time special was that you were offered. That is not the standard fee structure for bulk submitters at either NGC or PCGS, and i do know people with the privileges at both. A few years ago it was $3 per coin rejected at NGC. I don't know what it is currently.
You always like to invoke supposed logic: why would NGC routinely offer free inspection services?
@NJCoin said:
Because there is no significant market premium for one of the Big 3 services over another in moderns, so I don't believe bulk submitters would pay more for one service over another. Until @HeatherBoyd stepped up, no one benefiting from PCGS minimum 70 submissions even acknowledged it was a thing.
I very much beg to differ. Most coins in a mint proof or unc set get a much better premium in a PCGS holder vs NGC. In fact, there are a few coins that I can sometimes win cheap enough, submit for crossover, and even with a ~50-70% cross success rate, re-sell on ebay with enough profit to make it worth it. So maybe not with FH medals, but PCGS certainly commands a premium in the modern coin space.
Edited to add: I have full confidence that @wondercoin knows what he's talking about here.
Hi Jmlanzaf - Not sure about the term “free fire coins”, but I will leave it to the head of the bulk department to explain any savings on not getting an actual physical holder on any such bulk coins. That’s what he does 24/7 and is darn good at it. Rest assured it is not “zero” as far as I know from my 26 years of bulk grading moderns starting in 1998 (before it was even “a thing”) and continuing to this day. And, we agree, it is also not “little” in the aggregate!
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Comments
Just so you know, that is the purpose of the "like" icon below each post.
The point of my statement was that the class of people who can buy $50k coins typically have other means of raising capital when desperately needed that will keep them from accepting very low ball offers and one occurrence of this scenario does not mean the the other 229 coins have lost any value.
Very true. But people fall into and out of various economic classes all the time. People's priorities change. People pass away. Items get stolen.
And yes, it is absolutely isolated data points that establish value for an entire population of similar items. During the housing crisis, that was the logic used by my town's tax assessor in refusing to use foreclosures and short sales to establish value in property tax appeals.
Each sale was its own isolated special case. At least according to the assessor, who did not want to acknowledge reality and give homeowners tax relief.
It took two years to establish that this was, in fact, the new, lower, real estate market. One "special" sale at a time, since the market was locked and "normal" transactions were not taking place. Every property does not need to be sold to establish its market value.
If and when one of these goes down in value, the odds are close to 100% that 227 others will follow. Coin #1 and coin #230 are in their own markets, likely to track the others, but not as closely tied as #114 will be to #152.
Using your logic, these have nowhere to go but up. Forever.
History tells us that is very rare in any asset class, let alone modern, artificially rare coins. As @jmlanzaf astutely points out, since this was highly successful for the Mint, it is extremely unlikely that they will be able to control themselves and stop before they saturate the market. Which will not do anything for the long term value of any of them.
All I will say, with the benefit of retrospection, is that I'm still thrilled with my one of one auction win of this five kg proof silver medallion from the Royal Mint. At less than half the cost of a Flowing Hair privy gold dollar:
Tim
There is nothing about this that I like. I'm bummed that the Mint is getting into this.
Obviously, they made a lot of $ on these. Nice & easy $ for Stacks as well. Of course, the Govt wastes more than this in a second.
If they keep doing this I'd think the prices will drop as more coins will have mintages in this range.
I like the V75 Au more than these - that's just me.
I do love this coin though & am glad I purchased one - which will stay in the OGP.
It will be interesting to see how the values hold on these.
I will be looking forward to the Gold Kilo Flowing Hair Pattern Piece.
That one will actually be worth $100,000!
I don't think that is a great example. These coins are now scattered to the winds with owners in a wide area of affluent economic situations. Aside from a major economic depression or demand destroying event, there is nothing that I can foresee that will broadly impact the market for Privy FH gold coins.
That's not my logic. Sideways is also option which is probably closer to what will happen. In a lot of ways and for a lot of products, the mint issue price seems to establish a pricing floor. That is the only assertion I am making.
While that is a possibility, the opposite could also happen. While this was a success the money from this sale is not significant to the mint. There is no monetary incentive to do these again. The big reward probably comes from the hype and publicity which will probably be the driver of future similar offers. I would hope that the mint is wise enough to realize that to maintain the level of publicity and benefit of such a product offering, they can't just start cranking them out and probably have to space them at least 3 years apart.
Thanks Miles.
We graded the entire auction to report on the quality of every coin (3 were in NY so we only saw 227 coins) and gave all the information (for free) to one of our very best customers to use in his bidding. This also included the information on the (11) 69’s we actually graded 70 (PCGS is as good as it gets in the grading of important modern rarities like these). Our customer bought 0 coins armed with this information! 😆. The close spread on 69’s vs. 70’s didn’t justify even winning the super high quality 69’s in his book and I can’t say I blame him. He placed hundreds of thousands of dollars in bids across the entire auction (even bidding strongly live on many of them) but set his limits and didnt go over them. He felt the coins (in the end) didn’t offer the proper return he was personally looking for. That said- we see that winning bidders may have already made strong returns on the resale of some of the coins. No worries. The information may come in handy one day in the future.
Wondercoin.
I think prices will continue to rise. I don't forsee more than a handful selling them for less than they paid at auction, and if they do, there was an underbidder just below it.
This is very different from a coin that originally sold for hundreds, and then went up in price and sells for thousands. Like the 1995-W Proof Silver, where someone who but it cheap can sell fot less than the full retail price, as the profit is already built in.
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
Totally "on the money" comments.
I agree that a large percentage should not have been 70's.
We will see. A big group were purchaased by dealers for resale. Let's see how that goes.
And that's all that matters.
LCR Coin or Gold Bureau.....that's quite a spread.
Is a black NGC holder that valuable?
Perhaps LCR's listing is pre-privy auctions and the Gold Bureau just listed the coin and wants to ride the privy wave.
Very insightful, Mitch, especially around the 69’s that looked closer or more accurately a grade up!
Good on the winning bidders and even better for those that can resell at a higher price. If it helps my standard no privy, so be it.
There are more than a dozen of the non-privies available for less than $5,695 on eBay and more from other dealers even for less. The auctions are also resulting in prices gradually dropping. There are a lot of these for sale.
I don't really think there is a "privy wave" improving pricing, just a variety of dealer asking prices.
As far as the privies, there are already a dozen listed on eBay for sale.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
one has sold on eBay already -
https://ebay.com/itm/146264678743?_skw=2024+w%2Fprivy+gold&itmmeta=01JF2QZ850JT5Z1RTRV5083Z6B&hash=item220e0de157:g:ExsAAOSwx2lnWy4~&itmprp=enc%3AAQAJAAAA8HoV3kP08IDx%2BKZ9MfhVJKl%2Buoc87QNMLdavG%2FGE%2Bd2vn1SLeu55emNDw2r6G6xVKEhOnETvzj2tYUw0f7Ar3wVRzsQi5duLP4bWpbagYgEqTwJ7NXpUcjNW%2FrJvCJEoNaX7s7F19BVFYYyCqBV4lvjj2rivOTBzPNodIWrwCPoZaP%2BW3sBfAEoConxGyDYHu7kC1%2FFJfj%2FyM%2BtbpNyVyWbsEqfJSJQWf%2Fp71uQTDLS%2F4GtD2C6rWZdnQWX9q0qSaPtEZC4grKHd1bwRUXULEMGqFcgsz5C5KSUYnSrqQ9ohe9WBudYKcCk69Yk88E1Q7A%3D%3D%7Ctkp%3ABk9SR8yC_df4ZA
Yeah. The only problem with eBay is the infinite ways to manipulate it, if one is inclined to do so.
The sale might be real, or might be nothing more than an illusion designed to stimulate FOMO interest. It also might be at the listed price, or at any other price accepted by the seller.
Like an inkblot, people can and will see whatever they want. I happen to think that eBay is not an ideal venue for a $50K transaction like this. Particularly not hours after the listed item was sold at a well publicized public auction for 30% less. So I'm just not a believer.
David Copperfield can make it look like the Statue of Liberty is disappearing, and I can see it with my own eyes. Doesn't make it real.
Just what does "This item out of stock" really mean on eBay?
It means someone entered a quantity of more than one and the number is down to zero.
Pop Report as of December 14, 2024.
PCGS has now graded over 1900 FH Au coins.
Amazing 90.4% of the coins graded PR70DCAM.
PCGS has graded 100% of the gold privies and nearly 20% of all the non-privy golds. I could not find NGC summary numbers for the non-privy golds because the certificate verification site is down temporarily. It seems like maybe 30-40% of these "10,000" have been sent for grading.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
NJ Coin, do you have a prediction for where 70's/69's will be in 3 months ? How about a year or so from now ?
Christmas catalog, Up $100, go get some!
Sorry no. I had strong feelings about the auction, based on the prior auction as well as on the performance of similar items, such as the silver privy and V75 AGE.
OTOH, intermediate and long term performance on something like this is anyone's guess. No really good examples, and strong cases can be made either way.
There are, and will only ever be, 230 of them, so the sky could be the limit. Or, it's nothing more than an artificial modern rarity, so who needs it, and the only folks who will ever have any interest at current pricing are those who bought at the auction or from a reseller immediately thereafter.
Seriously, either scenario is equally plausible, with very divergent financial results. If I had the means and desire, I'd have bought one directly from SB on Thursday to add to my collection, without regard to how they might do in the future.
I'd have zero interest in chasing it now. As an investment for similar money, I'd stick to a classic coin with an established track record.
Can someone help me. If i wanted to send in the 230th Anniversary Flowing Hair High Relief Gold Coin non privy voin for grading. What service class should I choose?
Should i choose Regular or Modern, which is $40 or $35 to grade, with a max insured value of $2500. Or do i need to go up to Express which is $70?
Plus another $19 for First Strike whichever service i pick.
All in it will be $86 under Modern and $131 under express
First Strike Deadline is tommorrow so need to decide if it is worth it.
Thanks
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
You must use Express service because the coin is over $2,500.......$70
First Strike is $18.
Gold Shield and TrueView included.
edited to add: I paid $131....your number is correct.
You think it is worth $131 to get it graded first strike?
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
My two cents worth, take it or leave it.
I really don't collect US coins any more. That said, I have bought some of the recent gold restrikes, i.e. Mercury dime, Standing quarter, Walker and Kennedy halves. They are really nice. Someday I will add the FH coin. I don't want them in slabs but in the original mint packaging. I would find the slab a non-starter for me to buy it.
It is totally your call. A lot of people just keep the coin and the original government materials as is.
So far, at PCGS there have been 1,861 graded, as first strike, first day of issue, advanced release, etc., all which are within the 30-day window indicating basically early delivery to the grading service.
Only 47 have been graded with the "base" label, with no first strike indicator so far.
IMO if you sell now your net might be around $4,500 for the coin raw, or a little over $5,000 if a 70.
If you get a graded 69, it might be worth about the same, or maybe even less than the ungraded coin, factoring your grading costs.
The $18 added cost for the first strike label is more popular for modern coins, but the real question is do you want to grade it at all?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
If I was a dealer and I had a base and a First Strike for sale, I would sell the First Strike for at least $100 more than the base. Whether other dealers think like that or whether it translates to value when you sell, hard to say. but $18 on a $4-5k coin is a pittance and probably worth doing and you'll probably get it back when you sell.
The odds are you will get a 70.
If you have any plans on selling down the road, a PCGS graded PR70DCAM slab carries a lot of weight vs. raw in the OGP.
You can always crack it out and put it back in the Mint capsule whenever you like.
As @wondercoin would say, "Just my 2 cents." 😊
I would add- expect similar results to what the U.S. Mint received- roughly 70%-75% of the coins grading 70.
Why does it show closer to 90% now at PCGS? This includes prescreened coins as well as any min. Grade 70 submissions.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
If you were a dealer, you'd still it for what someone is willing to pay. For some coins, there is no 1strike premium at all.
In the past you could not have min grade 70 submissions, has that changed? or maybe that was just bulk?
You can set any minimum you want. You might be charged full price for any under your minimum though.
The "bulk" program available to 'Collectors Club' members states that min 70 submissions are not permitted.
Reference: https://www.pcgs.com/services/bulksubmissions
That said, PCGS has acknowledged that min 70, "bulk" submissions are possible on modern releases for authorized dealers with approval.
Reference: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/13543522/#Comment_13543522
It is, was, and always has been just bulk.
Not true. Retail cannot specify 70 as a minimum. And those who can specify a 70 minimum pay little or nothing for coins that don't make the grade. If dealers had to pay either way, there would be no reason to specify a minimum, since they could always crack the coin out later if necessary.
‘’And those who can specify a 70 minimum pay little or nothing for coins that don't make the grade’’
This is false.
Wondercoin.
They pay less...
Is it? I was offered exactly that deal last year ATS. Not "little." Nothing. Are they really doing things our hosts are not?
We went back and forth on this a while ago in another thread. There is no "less," given how little they pay for moderns on a bulk submission.
My price ATS was $8, with a special label. "Less" was "$0" for coins that did not grade 70. Anything greater than that would not make sense, given I would only have been paying $8 in the first place.
I'll bet anything the Big Boys pay even less. I'm as wrong about this as I was about it being a thing in the first place, after you pointed to T&Cs saying minimum 70 grades were not a thing, and before @HeatherBoyd chimed in to confirm that certain submitters were indeed allowed to specify 70 as a minimum grande.
This is not a theoretical argument we need to engage in. I'm telling you it happened. At one of the big shows last summer (2023), either FUN or ANA.
I asked because I saw other people doing it. With the Morgan and Peace Dollars. I didn't do it because I did not have, and could not get, the 100 coins necessary to hit the minimum at the show. It's why Morgan and Peace 70s were so widely available, in 2023, at such reasonable prices. High 70 grading rates, and dirt cheap grading fees for quantity.
They generally charge a small fee for each reject. Are you really going to argue with Wondercoin who is a bulk submitter?
Yes, because I'm not imagining it. I'm also not saying it happened at PCGS, if that's the hair you and @wondercoin want to split.
All I'm saying is that all the grading services vigorously compete with each other in the modern space, including the great CACG, since it generates a TON of revenue for them. People speculated CACG wouldn't touch moderns, since they don't sticker them. We all saw how that went, given the economics of grading in 2024.
If NGC is offering bulk submitters pricing PCGS won't match, that would mean that PCGS's private equity overlords are leaving a lot of money on the table. Which I would not believe for a second, no matter who said it.
Because there is no significant market premium for one of the Big 3 services over another in moderns, so I don't believe bulk submitters would pay more for one service over another. Until @HeatherBoyd stepped up, no one benefiting from PCGS minimum 70 submissions even acknowledged it was a thing.
So, yes, I'll argue with @wondercoin. Maybe I know something he doesn't (very unlikely). Maybe I'm saying something he doesn't want people to know (possible). And finally, sure, maybe NGC offers terms and pricing PCGS doesn't match (also possible, but unlikely).
$8 per modern coin with a 100 coin minimum, with no charge for coins that don't grade 70. Believe it or not. Not false. True.
What's a "small fee for each rejection," when the grading fee is only $8 to begin with? $0.50? $2? Why?
I'm telling you, it was $0! I'm pretty sure you are thinking about what they do with classics, where the grading fees are much higher, and there is a lot of room to charge something nominal for a coin that is returned ungraded.
And, the $8 was the price offered to me. I'd guess large dealers receive even better pricing, although I obviously have absolutely no way to know that for sure, one way or the other.
Just common sense that 500, 1,000, or more coins would receive even better pricing than 100. It's a reason coins that retailed from the Mint in OGP at $90 were widely available in 70 slabs from all the major grading services last year for around $125 each.
‘’Is it? I was offered exactly that deal last year ATS. Not "little." Nothing. Are they really doing things our hosts are not?’’
I didn’t realize a group of board members here, on this particular thread, were having an in-depth discussion about NGC grading and submission policies. If that was the case, my apologies for commenting on such policies.
Wondercoin.
jmlanzaf: PCGS is in the business of grading submitted coins. Not to “not grade the majority of coins submitted to them”. Hence, I believe they need to ensure even the largest bulk submitters pay for the grading of the vast majority of all coins submitted. This is not accomplished by offering “little” or “tiny” fees for not grading coins. Just the opposite. Hence, my objection to such a suggestion.
One year, my grading bills to PCGS (mostly for “bulk”) totaled about $600,000.00. And, I was certainly not the largest submitter that year, so I am not bragging about that. But, if there was a plan to pay “little” or “small” (or even “no”) fees to get the higher grade coins, I certainly didn’t know about it! 🤣
Wondercoin.
I didn't mean "little" in the aggregate. But, correct me if I'm wrong, but my recollection is that the fee for coins that fail to meet the minimum is lower than the cost of the slab fees for the ones that meet the standard. It is certainly not zero, as was suggested by our friend. There is most definitely an "inspection fee" but it is lower than the slab fee. As i recall, it was $3 to $5 a few years ago at the two services for $1 silver commems. Is that not true?
I don't know or care what the one time special was that you were offered. That is not the standard fee structure for bulk submitters at either NGC or PCGS, and i do know people with the privileges at both. A few years ago it was $3 per coin rejected at NGC. I don't know what it is currently.
You always like to invoke supposed logic: why would NGC routinely offer free inspection services?
I very much beg to differ. Most coins in a mint proof or unc set get a much better premium in a PCGS holder vs NGC. In fact, there are a few coins that I can sometimes win cheap enough, submit for crossover, and even with a ~50-70% cross success rate, re-sell on ebay with enough profit to make it worth it. So maybe not with FH medals, but PCGS certainly commands a premium in the modern coin space.
Edited to add: I have full confidence that @wondercoin knows what he's talking about here.
Hi Jmlanzaf - Not sure about the term “free fire coins”, but I will leave it to the head of the bulk department to explain any savings on not getting an actual physical holder on any such bulk coins. That’s what he does 24/7 and is darn good at it. Rest assured it is not “zero” as far as I know from my 26 years of bulk grading moderns starting in 1998 (before it was even “a thing”) and continuing to this day. And, we agree, it is also not “little” in the aggregate!
Wondercoin.