@coiner said:
It looks like Stacks is now publishing Greysheet and Collectors Price Guide Pricing on the 230 Privy Auctions
Greysheet in 70 - 12,000
Greysheet in 69 - 8,000
.
Where does Greysheet get their info from?
APRs, you'll see those figures changed shortly.
I believe that they also take posted bids on electronic exchanges into account. In this case, at the time those prices were published there were no actual transactions to consider.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@coiner said:
It looks like Stacks is now publishing Greysheet and Collectors Price Guide Pricing on the 230 Privy Auctions
Greysheet in 70 - 12,000
Greysheet in 69 - 8,000
.
Where does Greysheet get their info from?
APRs, you'll see those figures changed shortly.
Dan, would you consider sticking your neck out and being more specific? If so, do you anticipate that the changed prices will be raised or lowered?
😉😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@coiner said:
It looks like Stacks is now publishing Greysheet and Collectors Price Guide Pricing on the 230 Privy Auctions
Greysheet in 70 - 12,000
Greysheet in 69 - 8,000
.
Where does Greysheet get their info from?
APRs, you'll see those figures changed shortly.
Dan, would you consider sticking your neck out and being more specific? If so, do you anticipate that the changed prices will be raised or lowered?
😉😉
I try to avoid going out on a limb these days, so I’m going to have to politely refuse. Sorry .
Jokes aside, I suspect the grey wholesale is going to almost precisely match the lowest sale figures for each grade. It would look something like this:
@coiner said:
It looks like Stacks is now publishing Greysheet and Collectors Price Guide Pricing on the 230 Privy Auctions
Greysheet in 70 - 12,000
Greysheet in 69 - 8,000
.
Where does Greysheet get their info from?
APRs, you'll see those figures changed shortly.
Dan, would you consider sticking your neck out and being more specific? If so, do you anticipate that the changed prices will be raised or lowered?
😉😉
I try to avoid going out on a limb these days, so I’m going to have to politely refuse. Sorry .
Jokes aside, I suspect the grey wholesale is going to almost precisely match the lowest sale figures for each grade. It would look something like this:
PR70 - 34k CDN/ 40,800 CPG
Pr69 - 25k cdn/ 30k CPG
But if there are sale on ebay in the next week or so, I would expect the guides to reflect those prices.
The total sale price of the 45 PRF-69 examples was $1,261,000. Average price of $28,022. Lowest winning bid was $25,000. Highest winning bid was $34,000.
@coiner said:
It looks like Stacks is now publishing Greysheet and Collectors Price Guide Pricing on the 230 Privy Auctions
Greysheet in 70 - 12,000
Greysheet in 69 - 8,000
The total sale price of the 45 PRF-69 examples was $1,261,000. Average price of $28,022. Lowest winning bid was $25,000. Highest winning bid was $34,000.
I was surprised at the very strong prices for the 69's which many were not very much lower than even a couple of the 70's. I would think the 70's would hold their purchase price value longer over time.
@JW77 said:
70s bottomed $32/$33, heading back up
69s bottomed $25/$26 heading back up
never got under my bid limit , LOL
Only 1 forum member, not to be named to protect his/her identity, saw this coming!
Even a blind squirrel finds an occasional nut!
A stopped clock is right twice a day.
Lucky guess?🤣😂
Right on cue, and exactly as I predicted some would comment. Looks like I am now batting 1.000, at least with respect to the auction and my fan club's immediate reaction.
Thank you for not disappointing. Don't want you to EVER feel as though you are being left out of any conversation involving me.
@coiner said:
I bet with all that talk, NJCoin will not be a bidder on even one of the coins.
Lots of talk, but not walking the walk.
What walk am I not walking? The one where I cannot afford to spend $20K plus on a single coin?
I never said I could or would. You guys are the ones doing a lot of talking, as though you will be buying anything anywhere close to either side of $10K, or successfully engaging in so-called "retail arbitrage."
You are just going to be blown away with your bids, and left shaking your heads. Claiming that I am nothing more than the broken clock who happened to be right this time. I can't wait. 😀
You should take up gambling. You only remember the wins. Lol. But you did get this one right. So, congratulations.
Yes. I was low at my $15k max. But I'm neither surprised nor disappointed. I always left open the possibility that the hype would drive them higher.
The total sale price of the 45 PRF-69 examples was $1,261,000. Average price of $28,022. Lowest winning bid was $25,000. Highest winning bid was $34,000.
I was surprised at the very strong prices for the 69's which many were not very much lower than even a couple of the 70's. I would think the 70's would hold their purchase price value longer over time.
I believe one of the 69s went above the price of the lowest 70. $34k vs $33k.
I agree that the 69s did very very well. Stacks Bowers has to be thrilled with the results and exposure.
@coiner said:
It looks like Stacks is now publishing Greysheet and Collectors Price Guide Pricing on the 230 Privy Auctions
Greysheet in 70 - 12,000
Greysheet in 69 - 8,000
.
Where does Greysheet get their info from?
APRs, you'll see those figures changed shortly.
Dan, would you consider sticking your neck out and being more specific? If so, do you anticipate that the changed prices will be raised or lowered?
😉😉
I try to avoid going out on a limb these days, so I’m going to have to politely refuse. Sorry .
Jokes aside, I suspect the grey wholesale is going to almost precisely match the lowest sale figures for each grade. It would look something like this:
PR70 - 34k CDN/ 40,800 CPG
Pr69 - 25k cdn/ 30k CPG
But if there are sale on ebay in the next week or so, I would expect the guides to reflect those prices.
Not necessarily, but if there are higher confirmed private sales then I'd expect an Increase. Note that I'm talking about the grey figures which tend to be more realistic, Id be surprised if the PCGS guide is less than 50k on the 70s.
@JimTyler said:
I guess we can forget any deals from the mint on the good stuff everything will go to auction.
Don’t worry, I’m sure that you’ll be able to pickup one of the “1st anniversary of the 230th anniversary Flowimg Hair high relief” re-strikes next year at more affordable levels… 😉
The total sale price of the 45 PRF-69 examples was $1,261,000. Average price of $28,022. Lowest winning bid was $25,000. Highest winning bid was $34,000.
I was surprised at the very strong prices for the 69's which many were not very much lower than even a couple of the 70's. I would think the 70's would hold their purchase price value longer over time.
I believe one of the 69s went above the price of the lowest 70. $34k vs $33k.
I agree that the 69s did very very well. Stacks Bowers has to be thrilled with the results and exposure.
Lot 11188 (In the 69's group) was the $34K . . .
The total sales for the 185 PRF-70's was $8,651,000. If you toss out coins #1 and #230, the average sale price for the remaining 183 examples is $35,218. Total sales both grades: $9,912,000.
8 million for the mint is a drop in the bucket. Many collectors or investors easily could have bought them all and it would be a rounding error to their net worth. These were out of my ball park I am happy with my non privy coin.
Would guess the S-B folks are pleased, but not as much pleasure had they been able to tack on a 15 or 20% buyers premium. Likely there are quants at the USM ecstatic over proving the business case for minting super-low numbers of "collectible" coins.
To think, I bid $12k on a 69 pre live auction thinking it was a 70. Once I realized my mistake I thought i screwed myself when there were a bunch of 69s still at $8,500. In hindsight would of loved that 69 at $12k. . Ultimately disappointed didn't end up with anything as pricing was way above my personal limit and also above my SB limit. The bidding was interesting to watch prices come down through the middle of the auction only to see them rise again during the last 50 coins or so as bidders who were hoping to get lower prices with the high numbered coins bid them up like crazy people not to get shut out.
The folks who picked up the 70s at $33k must be pretty happy right now!
This is a fail for the mint. they could’ve struck 7500 privy and netted $27 million and the collectors would’ve been much happier not having to spend $30,000 on a coin.
Not really sure what they think they accomplished here.
Another video in honor of @NJCoin who totally nailed this one. I had to get my limit raised above 30k to even bid! I did not expect that, but I did not want to pay 50k to get one later after the retail arbitrage. LOL
The Emeline strut video from @jmlanzaf was unexpected. He needs to post on the one allowed main music video thread once in a while, as that was a new one for me. This is a bit more mainstream strutting.
What? The auction is over? I was going to bid on one, but got stuck in the mint's virtual waiting room and told not to refresh my browser. Hrrumphhhhhh....
@JimTyler said:
I guess we can forget any deals from the mint on the good stuff everything will go to auction.
Would you prefer to battle it out with bots in a 5 second checkout lottery on the US mint website in which I guess I would have zero chance of getting one? At least today if I had (been willing to spend) enough money I could have bought one at fair market value.
@goldbuffalo said:
This is a fail for the mint. they could’ve struck 7500 privy and netted $27 million and the collectors would’ve been much happier not having to spend $30,000 on a coin.
Not really sure what they think they accomplished here.
.
"Fail"? 🤣🤣🤣
Not so much. No one forced anyone to spend $30K on a coin, so I'm pretty sure those who did so are not unhappy with their decision.
Given that each coin contains $2700 worth of gold, plus costs of manufacturing, packaging, marketing, etc., the Mint would have had to sell each of 7500 coins for $6300+ to net $27 million from selling that many. What makes you think they could have done that?
What they accomplished was creating a buzz, a bidding frenzy, and a modern rarity. In addition to netting around a cool $8 million, less SB's cut.
@goldbuffalo said:
This is a fail for the mint. they could’ve struck 7500 privy and netted $27 million and the collectors would’ve been much happier not having to spend $30,000 on a coin.
Not really sure what they think they accomplished here.
.
"Fail"? 🤣🤣🤣
Not so much. No one forced anyone to spend $30K on a coin, so I'm pretty sure those who did so are not unhappy with their decision.
Given that each coin contains $2700 worth of gold, plus costs of manufacturing, packaging, marketing, etc., the Mint would have had to sell each of 7500 coins for $6300+ to net $27 million from selling that many. What makes you think they could have done that?
What they accomplished was creating a buzz, a bidding frenzy, and a modern rarity. In addition to netting around a cool $8 million, less SB's cut.
Count me not impressed.
Woohoo the mint and strike 230 unique coins and sell them for more money...
so what, is that something new.
What buzz is needed, they sold the non pivy's in less then five minutes.
Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. Sure, they can do this game again, and might, but this is still a very limited coin worth more than most expected and these purchasers are not going to be selling them for less than they paid any time soon.
There is the 1875 only 100 mintage $10 Liberty eagle out there, but it is usually more than a couple hundred thousand. The more recent V75 is pretty special at 1,945 minted. The two 2024 uncirculated commemorative golds are lower than the V75, but each still were more than 1,000.
What other actual coins, not medals, or proof patterns, are there in the last 150 years or so that are lower mintages than this?
@Goldminers said:
Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. Sure, they can do this game again, and might, but this is still a very limited coin worth more than most expected and these purchasers are not going to be selling them for less than they paid any time soon.
There is the 1875 only 100 mintage $10 Liberty eagle out there, but it is usually more than a couple hundred thousand. The more recent V75 is pretty special at 1,945 minted. The two 2024 uncirculated commemorative golds are lower than the V75, but each still were more than 1,000.
What other actual coins, not medals, or proof patterns, are there in the last 150 years or so that are lower mintages than this?
Who cares? It's a manufactured rarity. Look at other world mints who played this game. They issue coins with under 100 and they become bullion inside of 5 years. Comparing this "coin" to an 1875 double eagle is apples to ardvarks. Look at the prices of spouse $10 gold coins. They are bullion at 1000 or under mintages
And to your exceptions, isn't this akin to a proof pattern?
@goldbuffalo said:
This is a fail for the mint. they could’ve struck 7500 privy and netted $27 million and the collectors would’ve been much happier not having to spend $30,000 on a coin.
Not really sure what they think they accomplished here.
.
"Fail"? 🤣🤣🤣
Not so much. No one forced anyone to spend $30K on a coin, so I'm pretty sure those who did so are not unhappy with their decision.
Given that each coin contains $2700 worth of gold, plus costs of manufacturing, packaging, marketing, etc., the Mint would have had to sell each of 7500 coins for $6300+ to net $27 million from selling that many. What makes you think they could have done that?
What they accomplished was creating a buzz, a bidding frenzy, and a modern rarity. In addition to netting around a cool $8 million, less SB's cut.
Count me not impressed.
Woohoo the mint and strike 230 unique coins and sell them for more money...
so what, is that something new.
What buzz is needed, they sold the non pivy's in less then five minutes.
Yeah. This wasn't meant to impress us. Nor to give us something to flip.
It's a high end product meant for a high end market. Not everything they produce is meant for everyone.
Which is okay. As a taxpayer, I'd much rather they do things like this than seed limited editions with privys in boxes of coins that are made available to dealers in bulk, and to the rest of us in a very limited lottery.
@goldbuffalo said:
This is a fail for the mint. they could’ve struck 7500 privy and netted $27 million and the collectors would’ve been much happier not having to spend $30,000 on a coin.
Not really sure what they think they accomplished here.
.
"Fail"? 🤣🤣🤣
Not so much. No one forced anyone to spend $30K on a coin, so I'm pretty sure those who did so are not unhappy with their decision.
Given that each coin contains $2700 worth of gold, plus costs of manufacturing, packaging, marketing, etc., the Mint would have had to sell each of 7500 coins for $6300+ to net $27 million from selling that many. What makes you think they could have done that?
What they accomplished was creating a buzz, a bidding frenzy, and a modern rarity. In addition to netting around a cool $8 million, less SB's cut.
Count me not impressed.
Woohoo the mint and strike 230 unique coins and sell them for more money...
so what, is that something new.
What buzz is needed, they sold the non pivy's in less then five minutes.
Yeah. This wasn't meant to impress us. Nor to give us something to flip. It's a high end product meant for a high end market. Not everything they produce is meant for everyone.
I don't think that was the point. The point is to create buzz. You said it yourself, the income is meaningless.
@Goldminers said:
Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. Sure, they can do this game again, and might, but this is still a very limited coin worth more than most expected and these purchasers are not going to be selling them for less than they paid any time soon.
There is the 1875 only 100 mintage $10 Liberty eagle out there, but it is usually more than a couple hundred thousand. The more recent V75 is pretty special at 1,945 minted. The two 2024 uncirculated commemorative golds are lower than the V75, but each still were more than 1,000.
What other actual coins, not medals, or proof patterns, are there in the last 150 years or so that are lower mintages than this?
Who cares? It's a manufactured rarity. Look at other world mints who played this game. They issue coins with under 100 and they become bullion inside of 5 years. Comparing this "coin" to an 1875 double eagle is apples to ardvarks. Look at the prices of spouse $10 gold coins. They are bullion at 1000 or under mintages
And to your exceptions, isn't this akin to a proof pattern?
Many people obviously care.
Sorry, but the lowest first spouse gold is 1,824 mintage, not 1,000 or under, and not at all comparable to 230. Do you think anyone really wants to pay big bucks for a Betty Ford spouse half ounce gold, compared to a modern 1794 classic design flowing hair, high relief, with edge lettering, one-ounce gold coin?
Sure, it is a manufactured rarity that has been deliberately marketed to be that way to a huge audience, including newcomers, with only 230 privies and it will be selling aftermarket for more than the auction prices for quite a while.
Didn't you also plan to sell a few for more with your "retail arbitrage" if your low bids worked out?
Do you seriously think this will drop to bullion in 5 years? Or are you just unhappy you did not get a few to flip?
@goldbuffalo said:
This is a fail for the mint. they could’ve struck 7500 privy and netted $27 million and the collectors would’ve been much happier not having to spend $30,000 on a coin.
Not really sure what they think they accomplished here.
.
"Fail"? 🤣🤣🤣
Not so much. No one forced anyone to spend $30K on a coin, so I'm pretty sure those who did so are not unhappy with their decision.
Given that each coin contains $2700 worth of gold, plus costs of manufacturing, packaging, marketing, etc., the Mint would have had to sell each of 7500 coins for $6300+ to net $27 million from selling that many. What makes you think they could have done that?
What they accomplished was creating a buzz, a bidding frenzy, and a modern rarity. In addition to netting around a cool $8 million, less SB's cut.
Count me not impressed.
Woohoo the mint and strike 230 unique coins and sell them for more money...
so what, is that something new.
What buzz is needed, they sold the non pivy's in less then five minutes.
Yeah. This wasn't meant to impress us. Nor to give us something to flip. It's a high end product meant for a high end market. Not everything they produce is meant for everyone.
I don't think that was the point. The point is to create buzz. You said it yourself, the income is meaningless.
I think it's everything. The buzz. The income. The ability to not only create, but profit from the creation of artificial modern rarities.
Good for them. I hope they exploit it as long as the market allows them to. Far better than feeding excess profits to dealers and/or bots. Or running lotteries that people invariably complain about when they don't like the results.
After all, if they really did not care about the income, they could have done what others suggested and distributed these the same way they distributed the silver privys. Allowing ABPP dealers and a few of us to collect the windfall. They didn't, and it wasn't an accident.
This whole thing was deliberate, and @PeakRarities might be correct insofar as it might be a dry run for how they do things like this going forward. Or, better yet, Dusk and Dawn was the dry run, and this was simply the next installment in an ongoing series. Very little squeeze for a substantial amount of juice over time for them, if they choose to go this route.
My 24k max yielded the same results as @coiner and @jmlanzaf combined. Zilch. No bonus for being less wide of the mark.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I would rather have this coin than a banana stuck to a wall with duct tape for 6 million.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I would rather have this coin than a banana stuck to a wall with duct tape for 6 million.
True. But that's not saying much.
Like the banana, these are not meant for regular folks. They are meant for people to whom $30K+ is nothing, so whether or not they hold their value over time is irrelevant. They enjoy the pride of ownership, of being able to own rare items many people cannot.
If it increases in value, great. If not, it's not like their kids won't be able to go to grad school or anything.
The simple fact is that that does not describe most of us, so it's difficult for us to wrap our heads around what people are willing to pay. That creates the disconnect that feeds our debates regarding what we think will happen with auctions like this.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
Isn't that true for the majority of coins being collected by us?🤣😂
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
@Goldminers said:
Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. Sure, they can do this game again, and might, but this is still a very limited coin worth more than most expected and these purchasers are not going to be selling them for less than they paid any time soon.
There is the 1875 only 100 mintage $10 Liberty eagle out there, but it is usually more than a couple hundred thousand. The more recent V75 is pretty special at 1,945 minted. The two 2024 uncirculated commemorative golds are lower than the V75, but each still were more than 1,000.
What other actual coins, not medals, or proof patterns, are there in the last 150 years or so that are lower mintages than this?
In answer to your question - off the top of my head, most Liberty and Indian Quarter Eagles, Half Eagles, and Eagles, as well as Liberty and Saint Gaudens Double Eagles.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
@Goldminers said:
Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. Sure, they can do this game again, and might, but this is still a very limited coin worth more than most expected and these purchasers are not going to be selling them for less than they paid any time soon.
There is the 1875 only 100 mintage $10 Liberty eagle out there, but it is usually more than a couple hundred thousand. The more recent V75 is pretty special at 1,945 minted. The two 2024 uncirculated commemorative golds are lower than the V75, but each still were more than 1,000.
What other actual coins, not medals, or proof patterns, are there in the last 150 years or so that are lower mintages than this?
In answer to your question - off the top of my head, most Liberty and Indian Quarter Eagles, Half Eagles, and Eagles, as well as Liberty and Saint Gaudens Double Eagles.
Yes, Mark, those classic gold proofs are very low mintage in the hundreds. This is a modern manufactured version of those, and there are quite a few who think it is just a modern gimmick, and maybe it is.
I will be quite interested to see what the first one of these sells for at Heritage in the next few months. I have a very clean 70, with none of the distractions that are on some of the other coins. Maybe I should list it with a decent reserve and see what happens. Bids were getting stronger at the end.
I watched the auction today at the shop, even though I had no intrest in obtaining a modern issue, I had two customers who wanted one, they both sat on the sidelines today in awe, both actually have money, but decided 35k was just too much to spend on those.
The ladder half performed better than i thought, I thought prices might wane a little, and taper off, actually reverse started strong , soften just a tiny miniscule, then finished strong. i figured folks thought same, and then realized they better get on board or miss the boat and propped prices back up stronger at the end. I think the 69's benefitted the most at the end from this for some just to be able to get one at all.
The privies went for about double what I was expecting and hoping for and would have paid. For what they sold for there's a lot of coins I'd rather have. In 5 years the privies will either be worth $60k+ or under $20k. A rather obvious statement I know, but some mint issues remain in the zeitgeist and hold value and some do not. Due to the popular design I think this one has potential to go up, but I don't want to park $30k+ in one, and I sure wouldn't want to speculate on being able to re-sell it.
Instead I got my grade today on my pauper non-privy. PR70DCAM, which I'll probably flip to buy a coin I'm more interested in.
I received my NGC graded gold coin today, and I love the manner in which it’s displayed in a slab! The ability to see the rim Cleary and all the details with an easy to handle slab makes all the difference to me. I’m glad I have both, the raw and the slab. Neither have a privy, though….
I guessed above $25,000 on the 70s and not surprised by these stunning results. There’s a lot of sustained energy and excitement around this issue.
Fun stuff.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
I understand. I just don't think they are reasonable comps. Neither are 100+ year old patterns.
These are in a category with the V75 AGEs, and the silver privys. Not anything produced by a world mint, or a pattern relatively few collect.
Again, we are nit picking each other, because I agree with your basic premise. They went for moon money as I thought they would, and I think we both agree there was no flip at these prices.
People might get lucky and be able to sell at a profit, but the trend for these is destined to be down once the hype dies down. Which started to happen as soon as the hammer came down on Lot #230.
Not due to the ack of desirability of anything produced by the US Mint with a mintage of 230, but because SB did its job of realizing full value for its consignor, so they really have nowhere to go but down. These are not 100+ year old coins originally made for circulation, with few surviving examples.
All 230 of these will now be around forever. There will always be one or more available for sale, but there will now not always be a buyer at whatever price is sought by the seller. Many of today's under bidders will not be chasing them. The ship containing all the motivated buyers sailed around 3:00 p.m. EST this afternoon.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
I understand. I just don't think they are reasonable comps. Neither are 100+ year old patterns.
These are in a category with the V75 AGEs, and the silver privys. Not anything produced by a world mint, or a pattern relatively few collect.
Again, we are nit picking each other, because I agree with your basic premise. They went for moon money as I thought they would, and I think we both agree there was no flip at these prices.
People might get lucky and be able to sell at a profit, but the trend for these is destined to be down once the hype dies down. Which started to happen as soon as the hammer came down on Lot #230.
Not due to the ack of desirability of anything produced by the US Mint with a mintage of 230, but because SB did its job of realizing full value for its consignor, so they really have nowhere to go but down. These are not 100+ year old coins originally made for circulation, with few surviving examples.
All 230 of these will now be around forever. There will always be one or more available for sale, but there will now not always be a buyer at whatever price is sought by the seller. Many of today's under bidders will not be chasing them. The ship containing all the motivated buyers sailed around 3:00 p.m. EST this afternoon.
I think the world coins are a better comp than you think. Where do you think the US got the idea? Foreign mints have been creating instant rarities with smaller and smaller mintages for 2 decades. At first they sold well and maintained high premiums. But the rose eventually lost its bloom.
Everything the US is doing now was done by other Mint's previously including privies, low mintages, pop culture coins, auctions. The US market is larger but I'm talking about countries like Australia, Canada and the UK which aren't exactly tiny island countries, who have also done it.
Comments
So did anyone add up the final tally of all the lots sold?
I believe that they also take posted bids on electronic exchanges into account. In this case, at the time those prices were published there were no actual transactions to consider.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Dan, would you consider sticking your neck out and being more specific? If so, do you anticipate that the changed prices will be raised or lowered?
😉😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Now the question is who bought them, Flippers or collectors that want to have them?
Anyone care to opinionate? (
) I really would like to know.
Martin
Just rough calculation based on an estimated average of 228 coins plus coin 1 and 230 ($8.2 to $8.7 million)
I try to avoid going out on a limb these days, so I’m going to have to politely refuse. Sorry .
Jokes aside, I suspect the grey wholesale is going to almost precisely match the lowest sale figures for each grade. It would look something like this:
PR70 - 34k CDN/ 40,800 CPG
Pr69 - 25k cdn/ 30k CPG
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But if there are sale on ebay in the next week or so, I would expect the guides to reflect those prices.
The total sale price of the 45 PRF-69 examples was $1,261,000. Average price of $28,022. Lowest winning bid was $25,000. Highest winning bid was $34,000.
Total sales dollars are miniscule to the Mint.
Has to be a brand image play, let Congress do what it does, Mint wants coin collector action, respect.
First and last
Dealer bids
.> @cptbilly said:
I was surprised at the very strong prices for the 69's which many were not very much lower than even a couple of the 70's. I would think the 70's would hold their purchase price value longer over time.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
You should take up gambling. You only remember the wins. Lol. But you did get this one right. So, congratulations.
Yes. I was low at my $15k max. But I'm neither surprised nor disappointed. I always left open the possibility that the hype would drive them higher.
I believe one of the 69s went above the price of the lowest 70. $34k vs $33k.
I agree that the 69s did very very well. Stacks Bowers has to be thrilled with the results and exposure.
Not necessarily, but if there are higher confirmed private sales then I'd expect an Increase. Note that I'm talking about the grey figures which tend to be more realistic, Id be surprised if the PCGS guide is less than 50k on the 70s.
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I guess we can forget any deals from the mint on the good stuff everything will go to auction.
Somebody went all in on these coins:
Tim
Don’t worry, I’m sure that you’ll be able to pickup one of the “1st anniversary of the 230th anniversary Flowimg Hair high relief” re-strikes next year at more affordable levels…
😉
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Lot 11188 (In the 69's group) was the $34K . . .
The total sales for the 185 PRF-70's was $8,651,000. If you toss out coins #1 and #230, the average sale price for the remaining 183 examples is $35,218. Total sales both grades: $9,912,000.
8 million for the mint is a drop in the bucket. Many collectors or investors easily could have bought them all and it would be a rounding error to their net worth. These were out of my ball park I am happy with my non privy coin.
Would guess the S-B folks are pleased, but not as much pleasure had they been able to tack on a 15 or 20% buyers premium. Likely there are quants at the USM ecstatic over proving the business case for minting super-low numbers of "collectible" coins.
To think, I bid $12k on a 69 pre live auction thinking it was a 70. Once I realized my mistake I thought i screwed myself when there were a bunch of 69s still at $8,500. In hindsight would of loved that 69 at $12k.
. Ultimately disappointed didn't end up with anything as pricing was way above my personal limit and also above my SB limit. The bidding was interesting to watch prices come down through the middle of the auction only to see them rise again during the last 50 coins or so as bidders who were hoping to get lower prices with the high numbered coins bid them up like crazy people not to get shut out.
The folks who picked up the 70s at $33k must be pretty happy right now!
This is a fail for the mint. they could’ve struck 7500 privy and netted $27 million and the collectors would’ve been much happier not having to spend $30,000 on a coin.
Not really sure what they think they accomplished here.
.
Another video in honor of @NJCoin who totally nailed this one. I had to get my limit raised above 30k to even bid! I did not expect that, but I did not want to pay 50k to get one later after the retail arbitrage. LOL
The Emeline strut video from @jmlanzaf was unexpected. He needs to post on the one allowed main music video thread once in a while, as that was a new one for me. This is a bit more mainstream strutting.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
What? The auction is over? I was going to bid on one, but got stuck in the mint's virtual waiting room and told not to refresh my browser. Hrrumphhhhhh....
Would you prefer to battle it out with bots in a 5 second checkout lottery on the US mint website in which I guess I would have zero chance of getting one? At least today if I had (been willing to spend) enough money I could have bought one at fair market value.
"Fail"? 🤣🤣🤣
Not so much. No one forced anyone to spend $30K on a coin, so I'm pretty sure those who did so are not unhappy with their decision.
Given that each coin contains $2700 worth of gold, plus costs of manufacturing, packaging, marketing, etc., the Mint would have had to sell each of 7500 coins for $6300+ to net $27 million from selling that many. What makes you think they could have done that?
What they accomplished was creating a buzz, a bidding frenzy, and a modern rarity. In addition to netting around a cool $8 million, less SB's cut.
Count me not impressed.
Woohoo the mint and strike 230 unique coins and sell them for more money...
so what, is that something new.
What buzz is needed, they sold the non pivy's in less then five minutes.
Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. Sure, they can do this game again, and might, but this is still a very limited coin worth more than most expected and these purchasers are not going to be selling them for less than they paid any time soon.
There is the 1875 only 100 mintage $10 Liberty eagle out there, but it is usually more than a couple hundred thousand. The more recent V75 is pretty special at 1,945 minted. The two 2024 uncirculated commemorative golds are lower than the V75, but each still were more than 1,000.
What other actual coins, not medals, or proof patterns, are there in the last 150 years or so that are lower mintages than this?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Who cares? It's a manufactured rarity. Look at other world mints who played this game. They issue coins with under 100 and they become bullion inside of 5 years. Comparing this "coin" to an 1875 double eagle is apples to ardvarks. Look at the prices of spouse $10 gold coins. They are bullion at 1000 or under mintages
And to your exceptions, isn't this akin to a proof pattern?
Yeah. This wasn't meant to impress us. Nor to give us something to flip.
It's a high end product meant for a high end market. Not everything they produce is meant for everyone.
Which is okay. As a taxpayer, I'd much rather they do things like this than seed limited editions with privys in boxes of coins that are made available to dealers in bulk, and to the rest of us in a very limited lottery.
I don't think that was the point. The point is to create buzz. You said it yourself, the income is meaningless.
Many people obviously care.
Sorry, but the lowest first spouse gold is 1,824 mintage, not 1,000 or under, and not at all comparable to 230. Do you think anyone really wants to pay big bucks for a Betty Ford spouse half ounce gold, compared to a modern 1794 classic design flowing hair, high relief, with edge lettering, one-ounce gold coin?
Sure, it is a manufactured rarity that has been deliberately marketed to be that way to a huge audience, including newcomers, with only 230 privies and it will be selling aftermarket for more than the auction prices for quite a while.
Didn't you also plan to sell a few for more with your "retail arbitrage" if your low bids worked out?
Do you seriously think this will drop to bullion in 5 years? Or are you just unhappy you did not get a few to flip?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I think it's everything. The buzz. The income. The ability to not only create, but profit from the creation of artificial modern rarities.
Good for them. I hope they exploit it as long as the market allows them to. Far better than feeding excess profits to dealers and/or bots. Or running lotteries that people invariably complain about when they don't like the results.
After all, if they really did not care about the income, they could have done what others suggested and distributed these the same way they distributed the silver privys. Allowing ABPP dealers and a few of us to collect the windfall. They didn't, and it wasn't an accident.
This whole thing was deliberate, and @PeakRarities might be correct insofar as it might be a dry run for how they do things like this going forward. Or, better yet, Dusk and Dawn was the dry run, and this was simply the next installment in an ongoing series. Very little squeeze for a substantial amount of juice over time for them, if they choose to go this route.
My 24k max yielded the same results as @coiner and @jmlanzaf combined. Zilch. No bonus for being less wide of the mark.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I would rather have this coin than a banana stuck to a wall with duct tape for 6 million.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
True. But that's not saying much.
Like the banana, these are not meant for regular folks. They are meant for people to whom $30K+ is nothing, so whether or not they hold their value over time is irrelevant. They enjoy the pride of ownership, of being able to own rare items many people cannot.
If it increases in value, great. If not, it's not like their kids won't be able to go to grad school or anything.
The simple fact is that that does not describe most of us, so it's difficult for us to wrap our heads around what people are willing to pay. That creates the disconnect that feeds our debates regarding what we think will happen with auctions like this.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
Isn't that true for the majority of coins being collected by us?🤣😂
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
In answer to your question - off the top of my head, most Liberty and Indian Quarter Eagles, Half Eagles, and Eagles, as well as Liberty and Saint Gaudens Double Eagles.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
Yes, Mark, those classic gold proofs are very low mintage in the hundreds. This is a modern manufactured version of those, and there are quite a few who think it is just a modern gimmick, and maybe it is.
I will be quite interested to see what the first one of these sells for at Heritage in the next few months. I have a very clean 70, with none of the distractions that are on some of the other coins. Maybe I should list it with a decent reserve and see what happens. Bids were getting stronger at the end.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I watched the auction today at the shop, even though I had no intrest in obtaining a modern issue, I had two customers who wanted one, they both sat on the sidelines today in awe, both actually have money, but decided 35k was just too much to spend on those.
The ladder half performed better than i thought, I thought prices might wane a little, and taper off, actually reverse started strong , soften just a tiny miniscule, then finished strong. i figured folks thought same, and then realized they better get on board or miss the boat and propped prices back up stronger at the end. I think the 69's benefitted the most at the end from this for some just to be able to get one at all.
The privies went for about double what I was expecting and hoping for and would have paid. For what they sold for there's a lot of coins I'd rather have. In 5 years the privies will either be worth $60k+ or under $20k. A rather obvious statement I know, but some mint issues remain in the zeitgeist and hold value and some do not. Due to the popular design I think this one has potential to go up, but I don't want to park $30k+ in one, and I sure wouldn't want to speculate on being able to re-sell it.
Instead I got my grade today on my pauper non-privy. PR70DCAM, which I'll probably flip to buy a coin I'm more interested in.
I bet this guy is happy he didn't sell any (best I can tell):
I received my NGC graded gold coin today, and I love the manner in which it’s displayed in a slab! The ability to see the rim Cleary and all the details with an easy to handle slab makes all the difference to me. I’m glad I have both, the raw and the slab. Neither have a privy, though….
I guessed above $25,000 on the 70s and not surprised by these stunning results. There’s a lot of sustained energy and excitement around this issue.
Fun stuff.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
70? I hope...it's always discouraging getting a 69 back...
I understand. I just don't think they are reasonable comps. Neither are 100+ year old patterns.
These are in a category with the V75 AGEs, and the silver privys. Not anything produced by a world mint, or a pattern relatively few collect.
Again, we are nit picking each other, because I agree with your basic premise. They went for moon money as I thought they would, and I think we both agree there was no flip at these prices.
People might get lucky and be able to sell at a profit, but the trend for these is destined to be down once the hype dies down. Which started to happen as soon as the hammer came down on Lot #230.
Not due to the ack of desirability of anything produced by the US Mint with a mintage of 230, but because SB did its job of realizing full value for its consignor, so they really have nowhere to go but down. These are not 100+ year old coins originally made for circulation, with few surviving examples.
All 230 of these will now be around forever. There will always be one or more available for sale, but there will now not always be a buyer at whatever price is sought by the seller. Many of today's under bidders will not be chasing them. The ship containing all the motivated buyers sailed around 3:00 p.m. EST this afternoon.
I think the world coins are a better comp than you think. Where do you think the US got the idea? Foreign mints have been creating instant rarities with smaller and smaller mintages for 2 decades. At first they sold well and maintained high premiums. But the rose eventually lost its bloom.
Everything the US is doing now was done by other Mint's previously including privies, low mintages, pop culture coins, auctions. The US market is larger but I'm talking about countries like Australia, Canada and the UK which aren't exactly tiny island countries, who have also done it.