Other than the low number coins and #230. Did the 69 and 70 coins trade in ranges based on viewing the condition of the specific coin, or was it just random due to bidders stretegies
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
There really are no actual comparable comps with this coin. This is a unique US Mint privy coin, marketed by them and others in an auction format to hype and attract interest and demand beyond most of our expectations.
Mintages are only one variable. Ultimately, along with supply, real demand is important. Yes, there are plenty of other low mintage coins or medals that only a few people want, so asking prices for them drop accordingly if a seller needs to sell.
This was a very popular design and obviously received more bidding than other less desirable alternatives.
The boom, bust typical argument is possible, but at this stage a very big unknown. Some items have staying power. The auction is the market, and the prices paid reflect the demand for the supply at that given time.
In some ways this coin is similar to the stock market. You can argue Tesla is overpriced or underpriced, but the current price people pay for part ownership in the company is reality.
Seems like the obverse picture is rotated. Should have the date and Liberty centered better (even with the date slightly off center as minted).
@ProofCollection said:
The privies went for about double what I was expecting and hoping for and would have paid. For what they sold for there's a lot of coins I'd rather have. In 5 years the privies will either be worth $60k+ or under $20k. A rather obvious statement I know, but some mint issues remain in the zeitgeist and hold value and some do not. Due to the popular design I think this one has potential to go up, but I don't want to park $30k+ in one, and I sure wouldn't want to speculate on being able to re-sell it.
Instead I got my grade today on my pauper non-privy. PR70DCAM, which I'll probably flip to buy a coin I'm more interested in.
Other than the low number coins and #230. Did the 69 and 70 coins trade in ranges based on viewing the condition of the specific coin, or was it just random due to bidders strategies
I looked at each coin TrueView very carefully and did not see much logical correlation with price and the condition, or even in some cases the grade.
@wondercoin, said he had people on his team see the actual lots, so he may be able to confirm or reject this, but I felt many "70" grades were questionable quality at least based on photos, even if they were technically 70 as struck.
It is the striking residuals and later reverse die defects that I felt had issues.
@jwitten said:
Seems like the obverse picture is rotated. Should have the date and Liberty centered better (even with the date slightly off center as minted).
Here's mine for comparison.....................TrueView photographer forgot the proper rotation that day.
@coiner said:
It looks like Stacks is now publishing Greysheet and Collectors Price Guide Pricing on the 230 Privy Auctions
Greysheet in 70 - 12,000
Greysheet in 69 - 8,000
.
Where does Greysheet get their info from?
APRs, you'll see those figures changed shortly.
Dan, would you consider sticking your neck out and being more specific? If so, do you anticipate that the changed prices will be raised or lowered?
😉😉
I try to avoid going out on a limb these days, so I’m going to have to politely refuse. Sorry .
Jokes aside, I suspect the grey wholesale is going to almost precisely match the lowest sale figures for each grade. It would look something like this:
@NJCoin --I will be the first to admit.....I totally am flabbergasted by the bids on these coins. I would NEVER have expected this level of bidding. Whatever it was that drove the buyers - they were there in force. I suspect many dealers picked up most of the coins. It looks as if 70's were in the neighborhood of 35-40k; 69's in the 20's or so if I remember correctly.
I will say though - I would NEVER be a buyer at those levels. The dealers might get a quick turn for a few K more; but if youre a buyer in them I think youre buried in the coin.
If you like it - more power to you. If it was an investment - not a good one.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
There really are no actual comparable comps with this coin. This is a unique US Mint privy coin, marketed by them and others in an auction format to hype and attract interest and demand beyond most of our expectations.
Mintages are only one variable. Ultimately, along with supply, real demand is important. Yes, there are plenty of other low mintage coins or medals that only a few people want, so asking prices for them drop accordingly if a seller needs to sell.
This was a very popular design and obviously received more bidding than other less desirable alternatives.
The boom, bust typical argument is possible, but at this stage a very big unknown. Some items have staying power. The auction is the market, and the prices paid reflect the demand for the supply at that given time.
In some ways this coin is similar to the stock market. You can argue Tesla is overpriced or underpriced, but the current price people pay for part ownership in the company is reality.
There are plenty of comps. You just want to believe it's different. World mints have been playing the privy game for years. Ultra limited editions are also the norm. And they were popular at first. But the gimmick had a shelf life.
If you want a coin to hold values, you need to mint more not less. Things that are unattainable do not develop a collector base.
The US Mint is copying the playbook of the Commonwealth mints. It only looks new and unique if you haven't already seen it.
The US Mint is copying the playbook of the Commonwealth mints. It only looks new and unique if you haven't already seen it.
I'm not reposting all of the images of your examples. I honestly didn't know how you can compare this stuff to the flowing hair gold privy. Not even remotely close to the same audience. The flowing hair gold coins are special and prices show that.
You also talk about "manufactured rarity" I agree on that front but have you ever looked at the prices of modern sports cards? They are the definition of manufactured rarity and prices are crazy high.
There are plenty of comps. You just want to believe it's different. World mints have been playing the privy game for years. Ultra limited editions are also the norm. And they were popular at first. But the gimmick had a shelf life.
If you want a coin to hold values, you need to mint more not less. Things that are unattainable do not develop a collector base.
The US Mint is copying the playbook of the Commonwealth mints. It only looks new and unique if you haven't already seen it.
Maybe I just do not understand your point. I know you are highly experienced with the coin market, and I like to understand your real meaning.
Many of the people who bought these US Mint 230 privy coins could care less how many, or few, coins the UK or Canada mint has dreamed in limited editions to sell. The people who participated in this auction were buying the flowing hair classic design and that was priced high in this auction mostly because of demand, but somewhat related to a limited supply.
Maybe this entire thing and pricing is a publicity "gimmick" or waste of money, but I do recall you did want in at 10k to flip for retail. I see others trying to flip for $50k now. The TV shows may have a few of these for sale soon. Can't wait to see their special prices.
There are a lot of people with money these days. Elon is worth $400 billion. He could buy every US coin in existence. Even eggs are double lately again. Does it bother you that a few people paid a lot for these? Is there any proof yet that every one of them that bought these, made a very bad financial decision? Or are you just making another assumption that these should have sold for less?
@jmlanzaf said:
The US Mint is copying the playbook of the Commonwealth mints. It only looks new and unique if you haven't already seen it.
This is a good point for two reasons. First, the privy isn't terribly special vs the regular issue. Second there isn't really a "series" to collect, just a beloved classic design. Honestly the design was the only compelling reason to bid on this.
China is an interesting example. They have issued a bunch a limited edition gold coins (some sub-100 mintage), that have retained dollar premium but underperformed bullion by a wide percentage margin.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
I understand. I just don't think they are reasonable comps. Neither are 100+ year old patterns.
These are in a category with the V75 AGEs, and the silver privys. Not anything produced by a world mint, or a pattern relatively few collect.
Again, we are nit picking each other, because I agree with your basic premise. They went for moon money as I thought they would, and I think we both agree there was no flip at these prices.
People might get lucky and be able to sell at a profit, but the trend for these is destined to be down once the hype dies down. Which started to happen as soon as the hammer came down on Lot #230.
Not due to the ack of desirability of anything produced by the US Mint with a mintage of 230, but because SB did its job of realizing full value for its consignor, so they really have nowhere to go but down. These are not 100+ year old coins originally made for circulation, with few surviving examples.
All 230 of these will now be around forever. There will always be one or more available for sale, but there will now not always be a buyer at whatever price is sought by the seller. Many of today's under bidders will not be chasing them. The ship containing all the motivated buyers sailed around 3:00 p.m. EST this afternoon.
I think the world coins are a better comp than you think. Where do you think the US got the idea? Foreign mints have been creating instant rarities with smaller and smaller mintages for 2 decades. At first they sold well and maintained high premiums. But the rose eventually lost its bloom.
Everything the US is doing now was done by other Mint's previously including privies, low mintages, pop culture coins, auctions. The US market is larger but I'm talking about countries like Australia, Canada and the UK which aren't exactly tiny island countries, who have also done it.
I agree with you that they are copying what has been done elsewhere. That does not make a 230 US Mint mintage comparable to anything ever done by a foreign mint. As I said before, a Canadian or Australian comp to a 230 US mintage would be around 5. Did they ever make anything with a mintage of 5, and, if so, did it not hold its value?
As evidenced by the results today. Did anyone ever auction off their coins like the Mint did today?
Maybe you thinking this explains where you got your expected valuations from?
Not all mint issues are created equally as evidenced by this one. No one, not even the min, has a crystal ball that works very well in predocting market response. Comparing mint products is a fun academic exercise but not overly meaningful.
@coiner said: @NJCoin --I will be the first to admit.....I totally am flabbergasted by the bids on these coins. I would NEVER have expected this level of bidding. Whatever it was that drove the buyers - they were there in force. I suspect many dealers picked up most of the coins. It looks as if 70's were in the neighborhood of 35-40k; 69's in the 20's or so if I remember correctly.
I will say though - I would NEVER be a buyer at those levels. The dealers might get a quick turn for a few K more; but if youre a buyer in them I think youre buried in the coin.
If you like it - more power to you. If it was an investment - not a good one.
Thank you for the gracious admission. For the record, I 1,000,000% agree with you with respect to being a buyer at these levels. I just had a very strong feeling, based on the V75s at 8x the mintage, the silver privys, the signed silver privy COAs, etc., that the results would come in right around where they did.
As far as being buried goes, who knows? But I agree with you that there is no obvious flip at these prices.
We'll see how those being offered on eBay at $50K do. The sellers certainly have some room to move down and still make some money.
But, absent the SB hype, and with eBay fees, I think it's a lot of risk for a modest reward. And, they could very well end up losing money, since anyone really interested knew where to find 230 of them at the same price the sellers paid.
I honestly don't think eBay is the right venue for them, and the sellers might have better luck waiting a few weeks or months and trying to sell them one at a time via a platform like GC. Obviously, they disagreed with our assessment that these are not a flip at these prices, and they think they can move them at a profit to people who missed out.
I think, at these levels, that buyer's remorse is more likely to manifest than people who missed out today feeling the need to pay up on eBay tomorrow. That said, I wish the sellers all the luck in the world, and hope for their sake I am wrong, given how much some of them seem to have tied up in them.
I like it, and would have LOVED to have been a buyer at the prices you and @jmlanzaf were projecting. I just didn't see it.
Not for this design, with this mintage, with this level of marketing and hype. And now, after the fact, I wouldn't chase it up or down. I just accept that, if the Mint is going to go this route, that there will be certain things they make that I will never own.
Which is fine. When the Mint first published pictures of the silver medal with the privy, and we all thought they would all have the privy, most people HATED it, and thought it detracted from the originality of the design. Then, of course, when it became a limited edition lottery prize, everyone wanted one.
Same here. Who really needs it? The Mint also produced a beautiful version, without a distracting privy, also with a very low mintage, that is obtainable by most at a steep, but still attainable premium to spot.
People should just accept these for what they are -- niche products for a niche market. AKA artificial modern mint rarities. @jmlanzaf is right in saying that if the Mint decides to keep going to this well for easy money, at some point people will get bored and start tuning out.
Same as I said about them playing games with announcing maximum mintages and then under producing with no obvious reason why. If collectors cannot afford what the Mint produces, or cannot rely on announced mintages and/or product limits, over time they will move on and find other things to collect.
@ProofCollection said:
I bet this guy is happy he didn't sell any (best I can tell):
Yeah. That's the thing with eBay presales by anyone other than established, reputable dealers. It was always a no risk offer for the seller.
Had the coin at a level where the seller couldn't make money, the sale would be canceled because the seller would not deliver. OTOH, if the buyer was stuck with a terrible deal, there is a risk eBay would not allow a refund.
They just never make sense, unless you are dealing with a reputable dealer that you have confidence would take a loss if necessary to fulfill an order, AND you are reasonably sure that the price will be headed up in the near future.
Yeah. Maybe the coin actually sold for $50K. Maybe it was a shill. And maybe it sold for a best offer far below $50K.
This is one of the problems with eBay. We'll never know, and, if it's not a legit $50K sale, it could be nothing more than fiction designed to get others to buy one of the other coins the seller has listed, based on nothing more than FOMO.
Really hard to believe anyone gave the seller a $15K flip in less than a day at these levels, although anything is, of course, possible. Unlike SB, no actual transparency here, so call me skeptical.
‘’Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. “
I have US pattern Liberty Nickels (1881-83) in my #1 Registry Set with (R-8) mintages as low as 2-3 coins, legal to own, that are under $100,000. Repeat mintage 3! Not mintage 230.
What happens next year, hypothetically, when the Mint decides to produce another modern privy coin rarity (overnight) with a mintage of just 100 pieces. Are they worth $200,000/coin?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Yeah. Maybe the coin actually sold for $50K. Maybe it was a shill. And maybe it sold for a best offer far below $50K.
This is one of the problems with eBay. We'll never know, and, if it's not a legit $50K sale, it could be nothing more than fiction designed to get others to buy one of the other coins the seller has listed, based on nothing more than FOMO.
Really hard to believe anyone gave the seller a $15K flip in less than a day at these levels, although anything is, of course, possible. Unlike SB, no actual transparency here, so call me skeptical.
It didn't sell for best offer or it would say "best offer accepted" and we could find out what the offer was. The buyer of this $50k coin has enough money they don't mess around with negotiating.
Looks like Coinaddict raised his prices $5k.
I expect at least a few to sell at these levels because if you "gotta have it" you don't have any other choice and if you're buying $50k coins a ~25-35% premium isn't the worst thing, especially when you won't really be finding them anywhere cheaper than that in the near future. And the Christmas factor. And there are worse investments than a Pop 230 very popular US mint product.
The US Mint is copying the playbook of the Commonwealth mints. It only looks new and unique if you haven't already seen it.
I'm not reposting all of the images of your examples. I honestly didn't know how you can compare this stuff to the flowing hair gold privy. Not even remotely close to the same audience. The flowing hair gold coins are special and prices show that.
You also talk about "manufactured rarity" I agree on that front but have you ever looked at the prices of modern sports cards? They are the definition of manufactured rarity and prices are crazy high.
Of course it's a different audience, US collectors vs Commonwealth collectors. Big deal. Your bias is for US. Theirs is for Commonwealth. But if it soooo different, why is the US Mint copying the Royal Mint playbook?
You can also check out the UK "pattern" auction that the Royal Mint has turned into an annual event I've the last couple of years.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
I understand. I just don't think they are reasonable comps. Neither are 100+ year old patterns.
These are in a category with the V75 AGEs, and the silver privys. Not anything produced by a world mint, or a pattern relatively few collect.
Again, we are nit picking each other, because I agree with your basic premise. They went for moon money as I thought they would, and I think we both agree there was no flip at these prices.
People might get lucky and be able to sell at a profit, but the trend for these is destined to be down once the hype dies down. Which started to happen as soon as the hammer came down on Lot #230.
Not due to the ack of desirability of anything produced by the US Mint with a mintage of 230, but because SB did its job of realizing full value for its consignor, so they really have nowhere to go but down. These are not 100+ year old coins originally made for circulation, with few surviving examples.
All 230 of these will now be around forever. There will always be one or more available for sale, but there will now not always be a buyer at whatever price is sought by the seller. Many of today's under bidders will not be chasing them. The ship containing all the motivated buyers sailed around 3:00 p.m. EST this afternoon.
I think the world coins are a better comp than you think. Where do you think the US got the idea? Foreign mints have been creating instant rarities with smaller and smaller mintages for 2 decades. At first they sold well and maintained high premiums. But the rose eventually lost its bloom.
Everything the US is doing now was done by other Mint's previously including privies, low mintages, pop culture coins, auctions. The US market is larger but I'm talking about countries like Australia, Canada and the UK which aren't exactly tiny island countries, who have also done it.
I agree with you that they are copying what has been done elsewhere. That does not make a 230 US Mint mintage comparable to anything ever done by a foreign mint. As I said before, a Canadian or Australian comp to a 230 US mintage would be around 5. Did they ever make anything with a mintage of 5, and, if so, did it not hold its value?
As evidenced by the results today. Did anyone ever auction off their coins like the Mint did today?
Maybe you thinking this explains where you got your expected valuations from?
The population of Australia is 27 million, so the equivalent number is 20-25 not 5. The population of the UK is close to 70 million. But Commonwealth collectors oftwn collect the whole commonwealth, so the equivalent number is probably more like 100.
The Royal Mint has had at least two "pattern" auctions with pattern coins of mintages of LESS THAN 10.
The Royal Mint also included resurrected designs in at least one of those auctions. And Canada and the UK are fond of special privy marks.
Yes, the Mint is copying the entire playbook. They have not plowed any virgin soil here. I don't know why US collectors need to feel that they are different and special.
@wondercoin said:
‘’Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. “
I have US pattern Liberty Nickels (1881-83) in my #1 Registry Set with (R-8) mintages as low as 2-3 coins, legal to own, that are under $100,000. Repeat mintage 3! Not mintage 230.
What happens next year, hypothetically, when the Mint decides to produce another modern privy coin rarity (overnight) with a mintage of just 100 pieces. Are they worth $200,000/coin?
Wondercoin
For some reason, no one wants to admit that this has all been done before by the various Commonwealth mints including the "pattern coin" auctions. Your hypothetical is already a reality if you trace these privy patterns back to the V75 coins. We went from 1945 down to 230...100 is dead ahead. The recent UK "patterns" auctioned had mintages of under 10.
This offering is not "one of a kind", it's the second in a series.
Yeah. Maybe the coin actually sold for $50K. Maybe it was a shill. And maybe it sold for a best offer far below $50K.
This is one of the problems with eBay. We'll never know, and, if it's not a legit $50K sale, it could be nothing more than fiction designed to get others to buy one of the other coins the seller has listed, based on nothing more than FOMO.
Really hard to believe anyone gave the seller a $15K flip in less than a day at these levels, although anything is, of course, possible. Unlike SB, no actual transparency here, so call me skeptical.
Retail arbitrage. That is why dealers were bidding. If you missed the live auction and got outbid but still want a coin or you simply weren't aware of the auction. That's why I felt, and still do, that there was a resale opportunity. I just wasn't comfortable stocking at these prices.
@coiner said: @NJCoin --I will be the first to admit.....I totally am flabbergasted by the bids on these coins. I would NEVER have expected this level of bidding. Whatever it was that drove the buyers - they were there in force. I suspect many dealers picked up most of the coins. It looks as if 70's were in the neighborhood of 35-40k; 69's in the 20's or so if I remember correctly.
I will say though - I would NEVER be a buyer at those levels. The dealers might get a quick turn for a few K more; but if youre a buyer in them I think youre buried in the coin.
If you like it - more power to you. If it was an investment - not a good one.
Thank you for the gracious admission. For the record, I 1,000,000% agree with you with respect to being a buyer at these levels. I just had a very strong feeling, based on the V75s at 8x the mintage, the silver privys, the signed silver privy COAs, etc., that the results would come in right around where they did.
As far as being buried goes, who knows? But I agree with you that there is no obvious flip at these prices.
We'll see how those being offered on eBay at $50K do. The sellers certainly have some room to move down and still make some money.
But, absent the SB hype, and with eBay fees, I think it's a lot of risk for a modest reward. And, they could very well end up losing money, since anyone really interested knew where to find 230 of them at the same price the sellers paid.
I honestly don't think eBay is the right venue for them, and the sellers might have better luck waiting a few weeks or months and trying to sell them one at a time via a platform like GC. Obviously, they disagreed with our assessment that these are not a flip at these prices, and they think they can move them at a profit to people who missed out.
I think, at these levels, that buyer's remorse is more likely to manifest than people who missed out today feeling the need to pay up on eBay tomorrow. That said, I wish the sellers all the luck in the world, and hope for their sake I am wrong, given how much some of them seem to have tied up in them.
I like it, and would have LOVED to have been a buyer at the prices you and @jmlanzaf were projecting. I just didn't see it.
Not for this design, with this mintage, with this level of marketing and hype. And now, after the fact, I wouldn't chase it up or down. I just accept that, if the Mint is going to go this route, that there will be certain things they make that I will never own.
Which is fine. When the Mint first published pictures of the silver medal with the privy, and we all thought they would all have the privy, most people HATED it, and thought it detracted from the originality of the design. Then, of course, when it became a limited edition lottery prize, everyone wanted one.
Same here. Who really needs it? The Mint also produced a beautiful version, without a distracting privy, also with a very low mintage, that is obtainable by most at a steep, but still attainable premium to spot.
People should just accept these for what they are -- niche products for a niche market. AKA artificial modern mint rarities. @jmlanzaf is right in saying that if the Mint decides to keep going to this well for easy money, at some point people will get bored and start tuning out.
Same as I said about them playing games with announcing maximum mintages and then under producing with no obvious reason why. If collectors cannot afford what the Mint produces, or cannot rely on announced mintages and/or product limits, over time they will move on and find other things to collect.
They have already "kept going". This isn't the first scarce privy coin (V75). It's not even the first privy coin this year. It's the first auction, only 2 years after three Royal Mint started doing annual pattern auctions.
Yeah. Maybe the coin actually sold for $50K. Maybe it was a shill. And maybe it sold for a best offer far below $50K.
This is one of the problems with eBay. We'll never know, and, if it's not a legit $50K sale, it could be nothing more than fiction designed to get others to buy one of the other coins the seller has listed, based on nothing more than FOMO.
Really hard to believe anyone gave the seller a $15K flip in less than a day at these levels, although anything is, of course, possible. Unlike SB, no actual transparency here, so call me skeptical.
It didn't sell for best offer or it would say "best offer accepted" and we could find out what the offer was. The buyer of this $50k coin has enough money they don't mess around with negotiating.
Looks like Coinaddict raised his prices $5k.
I expect at least a few to sell at these levels because if you "gotta have it" you don't have any other choice and if you're buying $50k coins a ~25-35% premium isn't the worst thing, especially when you won't really be finding them anywhere cheaper than that in the near future. And the Christmas factor. And there are worse investments than a Pop 230 very popular US mint product.
Not true anymore. I have seen many Ebay listings lately where a best offer was accepted but the sold auction price Buy It Now price is showing as the sold price. Must be some kind of system glitch.
@Goldminers said:
Looking at these ask prices; these are still available for less than one bitcoin
I'd rather have the bitcoin.😉
I would probably accept a half a bitcoin offer or equivalent in USD for mine today, too. Trouble is, I don't understand how to trade in bitcoin and have no idea how to keep the codes, but I do accept bank wires.
I was watching the live bidding, I also bid on a few coins.
I dropped out of bidding once I saw the the numbers pass a reasonable price.
I would not want to own these anywhere north of $25k. I think if you can - flip - make yourself a few grand (maybe).
I worry about long term holds in modern commems (thats what this is - a commem). You just dont know when the next issue appears and the USM does another auction of the new ultra cool commem with 200 maximum, then 150, etc.
As I mentioned in a previous post - inspection of the group of PR70's found that many of them had reverse rim chatter at 6pm.
In the past with many modern issues, this was enough to warrant a PR69 grade.
There was a smaller group that were true 70's.
As a modern rarity, these coins should hold their value for many years. But over decades, the premium will likely erode in the direction of the non-privy coins, as people recognize them as a gimmick/pattern type coin.
Fun to own, but there are many many better ways to incinerate cash.
I think it will take less than decades. There are numerous examples of these types of endeavors from world mints.
Really? Is there a single example of a world mint selling an extremely limited edition at public auction?
That would be difficult to imagine, since a typical non-circulating precious metal offering from a world mint has a mintage of 5-10K, or less, as compared to hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands for the US. So a world mint equivalent of a US Mint edition of 230 would be like 1 or 2. 😀
The fact that world mints issue coins in the hundreds that do nothing in the secondary market is not instructive, one way or the other, as to what will happen with these.
That said, I happen to agree with you. Not because of world mints, but simply because of the laws of gravity and marketing hype.
They likely hit their peak today, with all the hoopla created by the Mint and SB. Maybe dealers who obtained some for inventory at full retail will be able to turn around and sell to clients at a profit, maybe not.
Same with all the coins now being offered on eBay. But, long term, contrary to @coiner's contention that SB would never be able to attract sufficient capital at one time in one place to support pricing in excess of $10K per coin, this was the one place and one time that sufficient capital was attracted to support the pricing we all saw.
Going forward, as people try to sell, it won't be easy finding people to pay what sellers are going to want. Hype and excitement will fade.
New things will grab people's attention. People will realize they can live happy and fulfilling lives without owning one of these.
So it's hard to imagine what is going to motivate anyone in the future to pay even more than people paid today to own any of these. Not to say it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
The pattern of almost all Mint limited edition new issues is hype, boom and then bust. No reason to think these will be different. But not because the Canadian or Perth Mint produce items with mintages below 1,000 that don't do anything. JMHO.
There are world mint products with mintages of 25 or less.
There are also numerous US patterns with mintages of under 100 if you want a different comp.
I understand. I just don't think they are reasonable comps. Neither are 100+ year old patterns.
These are in a category with the V75 AGEs, and the silver privys. Not anything produced by a world mint, or a pattern relatively few collect.
Again, we are nit picking each other, because I agree with your basic premise. They went for moon money as I thought they would, and I think we both agree there was no flip at these prices.
People might get lucky and be able to sell at a profit, but the trend for these is destined to be down once the hype dies down. Which started to happen as soon as the hammer came down on Lot #230.
Not due to the ack of desirability of anything produced by the US Mint with a mintage of 230, but because SB did its job of realizing full value for its consignor, so they really have nowhere to go but down. These are not 100+ year old coins originally made for circulation, with few surviving examples.
All 230 of these will now be around forever. There will always be one or more available for sale, but there will now not always be a buyer at whatever price is sought by the seller. Many of today's under bidders will not be chasing them. The ship containing all the motivated buyers sailed around 3:00 p.m. EST this afternoon.
I think the world coins are a better comp than you think. Where do you think the US got the idea? Foreign mints have been creating instant rarities with smaller and smaller mintages for 2 decades. At first they sold well and maintained high premiums. But the rose eventually lost its bloom.
Everything the US is doing now was done by other Mint's previously including privies, low mintages, pop culture coins, auctions. The US market is larger but I'm talking about countries like Australia, Canada and the UK which aren't exactly tiny island countries, who have also done it.
I agree with you that they are copying what has been done elsewhere. That does not make a 230 US Mint mintage comparable to anything ever done by a foreign mint. As I said before, a Canadian or Australian comp to a 230 US mintage would be around 5. Did they ever make anything with a mintage of 5, and, if so, did it not hold its value?
As evidenced by the results today. Did anyone ever auction off their coins like the Mint did today?
Maybe you thinking this explains where you got your expected valuations from?
The population of Australia is 27 million, so the equivalent number is 20-25 not 5. The population of the UK is close to 70 million. But Commonwealth collectors oftwn collect the whole commonwealth, so the equivalent number is probably more like 100.
The Royal Mint has had at least two "pattern" auctions with pattern coins of mintages of LESS THAN 10.
The Royal Mint also included resurrected designs in at least one of those auctions. And Canada and the UK are fond of special privy marks.
Yes, the Mint is copying the entire playbook. They have not plowed any virgin soil here. I don't know why US collectors need to feel that they are different and special.
With all due respect, I was not comparing populations, but rather, mintages of non circulating collectibles.
For the US, 100-250K is not unusual, whereas, for the foreign mints, 2500-5000 is standard. So I used 2% as a proxy.
It's not perfect, but it makes the point. If you want to quibble over 5 versus 20, please be my guest.
Yeah. Maybe the coin actually sold for $50K. Maybe it was a shill. And maybe it sold for a best offer far below $50K.
This is one of the problems with eBay. We'll never know, and, if it's not a legit $50K sale, it could be nothing more than fiction designed to get others to buy one of the other coins the seller has listed, based on nothing more than FOMO.
Really hard to believe anyone gave the seller a $15K flip in less than a day at these levels, although anything is, of course, possible. Unlike SB, no actual transparency here, so call me skeptical.
Retail arbitrage. That is why dealers were bidding. If you missed the live auction and got outbid but still want a coin or you simply weren't aware of the auction. That's why I felt, and still do, that there was a resale opportunity. I just wasn't comfortable stocking at these prices.
You might very well be right. Again, just call me a skeptic.
I'm having a difficult time believing someone with the means and desire was too busy to attend the SB auction, or have someone attend on their behalf, and then turned around and paid a $15K premium, on top of $35K, a few hours later, because they just couldn't live without one.
On eBay of all places. Of course it's possible. I just don't believe it.
In addition to the reverse rim issue documented above, the majority of the coins struck after number 181 seem to have used the same reverse die. It seems this resulted in tiny marks in the very same place on most of the coins including this 70, just as an example.
Most of the first 50 also had the tiny dark "struck through?" mark in the hair that was also discussed earlier in this thread.
A total of 185 were graded 70, as struck, but some were visibly different.
Would CAC ever award a sticker for a "strong for the grade" modern 70 PCGS graded coin like this? It is not in their list, but exceptions have been made.
Would crossing one of these over to a CACG holder add value if it came back 70? It would be a way to get the gold and black label changed out.
@coiner said: @NJCoin --I will be the first to admit.....I totally am flabbergasted by the bids on these coins. I would NEVER have expected this level of bidding. Whatever it was that drove the buyers - they were there in force. I suspect many dealers picked up most of the coins. It looks as if 70's were in the neighborhood of 35-40k; 69's in the 20's or so if I remember correctly.
I will say though - I would NEVER be a buyer at those levels. The dealers might get a quick turn for a few K more; but if youre a buyer in them I think youre buried in the coin.
If you like it - more power to you. If it was an investment - not a good one.
Thank you for the gracious admission. For the record, I 1,000,000% agree with you with respect to being a buyer at these levels. I just had a very strong feeling, based on the V75s at 8x the mintage, the silver privys, the signed silver privy COAs, etc., that the results would come in right around where they did.
As far as being buried goes, who knows? But I agree with you that there is no obvious flip at these prices.
We'll see how those being offered on eBay at $50K do. The sellers certainly have some room to move down and still make some money.
But, absent the SB hype, and with eBay fees, I think it's a lot of risk for a modest reward. And, they could very well end up losing money, since anyone really interested knew where to find 230 of them at the same price the sellers paid.
I honestly don't think eBay is the right venue for them, and the sellers might have better luck waiting a few weeks or months and trying to sell them one at a time via a platform like GC. Obviously, they disagreed with our assessment that these are not a flip at these prices, and they think they can move them at a profit to people who missed out.
I think, at these levels, that buyer's remorse is more likely to manifest than people who missed out today feeling the need to pay up on eBay tomorrow. That said, I wish the sellers all the luck in the world, and hope for their sake I am wrong, given how much some of them seem to have tied up in them.
I like it, and would have LOVED to have been a buyer at the prices you and @jmlanzaf were projecting. I just didn't see it.
Not for this design, with this mintage, with this level of marketing and hype. And now, after the fact, I wouldn't chase it up or down. I just accept that, if the Mint is going to go this route, that there will be certain things they make that I will never own.
Which is fine. When the Mint first published pictures of the silver medal with the privy, and we all thought they would all have the privy, most people HATED it, and thought it detracted from the originality of the design. Then, of course, when it became a limited edition lottery prize, everyone wanted one.
Same here. Who really needs it? The Mint also produced a beautiful version, without a distracting privy, also with a very low mintage, that is obtainable by most at a steep, but still attainable premium to spot.
People should just accept these for what they are -- niche products for a niche market. AKA artificial modern mint rarities. @jmlanzaf is right in saying that if the Mint decides to keep going to this well for easy money, at some point people will get bored and start tuning out.
Same as I said about them playing games with announcing maximum mintages and then under producing with no obvious reason why. If collectors cannot afford what the Mint produces, or cannot rely on announced mintages and/or product limits, over time they will move on and find other things to collect.
They have already "kept going". This isn't the first scarce privy coin (V75). It's not even the first privy coin this year. It's the first auction, only 2 years after three Royal Mint started doing annual pattern auctions.
Yeah. Maybe the coin actually sold for $50K. Maybe it was a shill. And maybe it sold for a best offer far below $50K.
This is one of the problems with eBay. We'll never know, and, if it's not a legit $50K sale, it could be nothing more than fiction designed to get others to buy one of the other coins the seller has listed, based on nothing more than FOMO.
Really hard to believe anyone gave the seller a $15K flip in less than a day at these levels, although anything is, of course, possible. Unlike SB, no actual transparency here, so call me skeptical.
It didn't sell for best offer or it would say "best offer accepted" and we could find out what the offer was. The buyer of this $50k coin has enough money they don't mess around with negotiating.
Looks like Coinaddict raised his prices $5k.
I expect at least a few to sell at these levels because if you "gotta have it" you don't have any other choice and if you're buying $50k coins a ~25-35% premium isn't the worst thing, especially when you won't really be finding them anywhere cheaper than that in the near future. And the Christmas factor. And there are worse investments than a Pop 230 very popular US mint product.
Not true anymore. I have seen many Ebay listings lately where a best offer was accepted but the sold auction price Buy It Now price is showing as the sold price. Must be some kind of system glitch.
@Goldminers said:
Looking at these ask prices; these are still available for less than one bitcoin
I'd rather have the bitcoin.😉
I would probably accept a half a bitcoin offer or equivalent in USD for mine today, too. Trouble is, I don't understand how to trade in bitcoin and have no idea how to keep the codes, but I do accept bank wires.
@coiner said: @NJCoin --I will be the first to admit.....I totally am flabbergasted by the bids on these coins. I would NEVER have expected this level of bidding. Whatever it was that drove the buyers - they were there in force. I suspect many dealers picked up most of the coins. It looks as if 70's were in the neighborhood of 35-40k; 69's in the 20's or so if I remember correctly.
I will say though - I would NEVER be a buyer at those levels. The dealers might get a quick turn for a few K more; but if youre a buyer in them I think youre buried in the coin.
If you like it - more power to you. If it was an investment - not a good one.
Thank you for the gracious admission. For the record, I 1,000,000% agree with you with respect to being a buyer at these levels. I just had a very strong feeling, based on the V75s at 8x the mintage, the silver privys, the signed silver privy COAs, etc., that the results would come in right around where they did.
As far as being buried goes, who knows? But I agree with you that there is no obvious flip at these prices.
We'll see how those being offered on eBay at $50K do. The sellers certainly have some room to move down and still make some money.
But, absent the SB hype, and with eBay fees, I think it's a lot of risk for a modest reward. And, they could very well end up losing money, since anyone really interested knew where to find 230 of them at the same price the sellers paid.
I honestly don't think eBay is the right venue for them, and the sellers might have better luck waiting a few weeks or months and trying to sell them one at a time via a platform like GC. Obviously, they disagreed with our assessment that these are not a flip at these prices, and they think they can move them at a profit to people who missed out.
I think, at these levels, that buyer's remorse is more likely to manifest than people who missed out today feeling the need to pay up on eBay tomorrow. That said, I wish the sellers all the luck in the world, and hope for their sake I am wrong, given how much some of them seem to have tied up in them.
I like it, and would have LOVED to have been a buyer at the prices you and @jmlanzaf were projecting. I just didn't see it.
Not for this design, with this mintage, with this level of marketing and hype. And now, after the fact, I wouldn't chase it up or down. I just accept that, if the Mint is going to go this route, that there will be certain things they make that I will never own.
Which is fine. When the Mint first published pictures of the silver medal with the privy, and we all thought they would all have the privy, most people HATED it, and thought it detracted from the originality of the design. Then, of course, when it became a limited edition lottery prize, everyone wanted one.
Same here. Who really needs it? The Mint also produced a beautiful version, without a distracting privy, also with a very low mintage, that is obtainable by most at a steep, but still attainable premium to spot.
People should just accept these for what they are -- niche products for a niche market. AKA artificial modern mint rarities. @jmlanzaf is right in saying that if the Mint decides to keep going to this well for easy money, at some point people will get bored and start tuning out.
Same as I said about them playing games with announcing maximum mintages and then under producing with no obvious reason why. If collectors cannot afford what the Mint produces, or cannot rely on announced mintages and/or product limits, over time they will move on and find other things to collect.
They have already "kept going". This isn't the first scarce privy coin (V75). It's not even the first privy coin this year. It's the first auction, only 2 years after three Royal Mint started doing annual pattern auctions.
@coiner said:
Im thinking that many will be unhappy with what they paid once the shine wears off.
I respectfully disagree. Not because I would not feel exactly as you would, but because I think you are still not accepting that people like us are not the intended audience.
Some might get lucky and be able to profitably flip at yesterday's prices. Others hoping to might end up getting stuck.
But the eventual owners of these will be folks who can afford to lose $50K without batting an eye. They are buying to have 1 of 230.
If it holds value or goes up, great. If not, who cares? That's just not us, but I'm pretty sure the people in that position won't be unhappy, because their happiness comes from owning the coin, not from making money on it. That would just be an added bonus.
Some people drive cars worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. They trade them in every so often, and lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in doing so. They don't care. Their happiness comes from owning, driving, and being seen in the car.
Others drive used Toyotas until they fall apart. And this includes people like Warren Buffett who can afford to drive anything. Their happiness comes from not spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on cars. To each their own.
‘’A total of 185 were graded 70, as struck, but some were visibly different.’’
My very strict stickering service (which is why I have declined all offers to date to head up a modern stickering service) would have stickered 60/182 of the 70 grade coins inspected. Detailed notes set aside for future reference. But, again, I personally operate under the opinion that all 70’s are not created equal (and grade out “high end” and “low end” the same as every other grade from 60-69). Others publicly state they can’t even tell the difference between a 69 and 70 graded coin they inspect! 🤣
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
If it holds value or goes up, great. If not, who cares? That's just not us, but I'm pretty sure the people in that position won't be unhappy, because their happiness comes from owning the coin, not from making money on it. That would just be an added bonus.
Some people drive cars worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. They trade them in every so often, and lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in doing so. They don't care. Their happiness comes from owning, driving, and being seen in the car.
Others drive used Toyotas until they fall apart. And this includes people like Warren Buffett who can afford to drive anything. Their happiness comes from not spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on cars. To each their own.
These coins will hold their value except perhaps any extra premium associated with mintage number as I'm not sure how much the secondary market cares about the serial number. There will never be a glut of these on the market and the people who own them will probably not be mass-liquidating them and will probably not sell them at a loss.
If it holds value or goes up, great. If not, who cares? That's just not us, but I'm pretty sure the people in that position won't be unhappy, because their happiness comes from owning the coin, not from making money on it. That would just be an added bonus.
Some people drive cars worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. They trade them in every so often, and lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in doing so. They don't care. Their happiness comes from owning, driving, and being seen in the car.
Others drive used Toyotas until they fall apart. And this includes people like Warren Buffett who can afford to drive anything. Their happiness comes from not spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on cars. To each their own.
These coins will hold their value except perhaps any extra premium associated with mintage number as I'm not sure how much the secondary market cares about the serial number. There will never be a glut of these on the market and the people who own them will probably not be mass-liquidating them and will probably not sell them at a loss.
Which is why they won't hold value. A coin you can't acquire does not become part of your collection. Especially when there are a dozen similar offerings, the secondary market starts to just shrug. Especially when it's only a privy variety.
And that is why, Mitch, I will never again buy a high dollar modern coin graded without either a live inspection or stated and reliable return/replacement policy. As such, a 69 is good enough for me. I prefer my gold and palladium coins in a slab. I avoid (unless near spot) silver due to spotting, in any grade.
Pursuit of happiness vs contentment.
And, good for you! The service is becoming more necessary.
@wondercoin said:
‘’A total of 185 were graded 70, as struck, but some were visibly different.’’
My very strict stickering service (which is why I have declined all offers to date to head up a modern stickering service) would have stickered 60/182 of the 70 grade coins inspected. Detailed notes set aside for future reference. But, again, I personally operate under the opinion that all 70’s are not created equal (and grade out “high end” and “low end” the same as every other grade from 60-69). Others publicly state they can’t even tell the difference between a 69 and 70 graded coin they inspect! 🤣
If it holds value or goes up, great. If not, who cares? That's just not us, but I'm pretty sure the people in that position won't be unhappy, because their happiness comes from owning the coin, not from making money on it. That would just be an added bonus.
Some people drive cars worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. They trade them in every so often, and lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in doing so. They don't care. Their happiness comes from owning, driving, and being seen in the car.
Others drive used Toyotas until they fall apart. And this includes people like Warren Buffett who can afford to drive anything. Their happiness comes from not spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on cars. To each their own.
These coins will hold their value except perhaps any extra premium associated with mintage number as I'm not sure how much the secondary market cares about the serial number. There will never be a glut of these on the market and the people who own them will probably not be mass-liquidating them and will probably not sell them at a loss.
TBD. They are very low mintage modern issues that were purchased at monster premiums to other modern issues, and to their intrinsic value.
As others here have attested, there are a TON of other modern issues that also have very low mintages, although admittedly none quite as low as this. It is therefore established that supply will always be tiny. Supply, though, is only one half of the equation. You also need demand, which is lacking for many of the other low mintage modern issues from the Mint.
Demand at $30-50K+, is not guaranteed into the future, and should not be taken for granted. Should it dissipate, prices can collapse, even though there will never be a "glut." Because one at $50K is a "glut" if you need to sell and the only bid is $10K, $20K, whatever. Which is all some right here were willing to pay, even after seeing how things went yesterday.
"Probably not sell at a loss" is undoubtedly true today, but not necessarily in the future if one's financial circumstances change, people inherit them, etc. Anything at all is always only worth what someone is willing to pay at a given point in time. Yesterday, these were worth $24-40K. Tomorrow's number is really anyone's guess. Glut or no glut.
Comments
Other than the low number coins and #230. Did the 69 and 70 coins trade in ranges based on viewing the condition of the specific coin, or was it just random due to bidders stretegies
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
Greysheet three days later................
December 9......
Today December 12........
GreySheet Link
There really are no actual comparable comps with this coin. This is a unique US Mint privy coin, marketed by them and others in an auction format to hype and attract interest and demand beyond most of our expectations.
Mintages are only one variable. Ultimately, along with supply, real demand is important. Yes, there are plenty of other low mintage coins or medals that only a few people want, so asking prices for them drop accordingly if a seller needs to sell.
This was a very popular design and obviously received more bidding than other less desirable alternatives.
The boom, bust typical argument is possible, but at this stage a very big unknown. Some items have staying power. The auction is the market, and the prices paid reflect the demand for the supply at that given time.
In some ways this coin is similar to the stock market. You can argue Tesla is overpriced or underpriced, but the current price people pay for part ownership in the company is reality.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Seems like the obverse picture is rotated. Should have the date and Liberty centered better (even with the date slightly off center as minted).
.> @hiijacker said:
I looked at each coin TrueView very carefully and did not see much logical correlation with price and the condition, or even in some cases the grade.
@wondercoin, said he had people on his team see the actual lots, so he may be able to confirm or reject this, but I felt many "70" grades were questionable quality at least based on photos, even if they were technically 70 as struck.
It is the striking residuals and later reverse die defects that I felt had issues.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Here's mine for comparison.....................TrueView photographer forgot the proper rotation that day.
Founder- Peak Rarities
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@NJCoin --I will be the first to admit.....I totally am flabbergasted by the bids on these coins. I would NEVER have expected this level of bidding. Whatever it was that drove the buyers - they were there in force. I suspect many dealers picked up most of the coins. It looks as if 70's were in the neighborhood of 35-40k; 69's in the 20's or so if I remember correctly.
I will say though - I would NEVER be a buyer at those levels. The dealers might get a quick turn for a few K more; but if youre a buyer in them I think youre buried in the coin.
If you like it - more power to you. If it was an investment - not a good one.
Will the winners of these coveted privy FH Au coins now send them off to CAC for their approval??
-----Asking for the folks.
There are plenty of comps. You just want to believe it's different. World mints have been playing the privy game for years. Ultra limited editions are also the norm. And they were popular at first. But the gimmick had a shelf life.
If you want a coin to hold values, you need to mint more not less. Things that are unattainable do not develop a collector base.
The US Mint is copying the playbook of the Commonwealth mints. It only looks new and unique if you haven't already seen it.
For crossover?
CAC does not sticker these. Although I guess as we've learned, they will make undocumented exceptions.
I'm not reposting all of the images of your examples. I honestly didn't know how you can compare this stuff to the flowing hair gold privy. Not even remotely close to the same audience. The flowing hair gold coins are special and prices show that.
You also talk about "manufactured rarity" I agree on that front but have you ever looked at the prices of modern sports cards? They are the definition of manufactured rarity and prices are crazy high.
Maybe I just do not understand your point. I know you are highly experienced with the coin market, and I like to understand your real meaning.
Many of the people who bought these US Mint 230 privy coins could care less how many, or few, coins the UK or Canada mint has dreamed in limited editions to sell. The people who participated in this auction were buying the flowing hair classic design and that was priced high in this auction mostly because of demand, but somewhat related to a limited supply.
Maybe this entire thing and pricing is a publicity "gimmick" or waste of money, but I do recall you did want in at 10k to flip for retail. I see others trying to flip for $50k now. The TV shows may have a few of these for sale soon. Can't wait to see their special prices.
There are a lot of people with money these days. Elon is worth $400 billion. He could buy every US coin in existence. Even eggs are double lately again. Does it bother you that a few people paid a lot for these? Is there any proof yet that every one of them that bought these, made a very bad financial decision? Or are you just making another assumption that these should have sold for less?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
This is a good point for two reasons. First, the privy isn't terribly special vs the regular issue. Second there isn't really a "series" to collect, just a beloved classic design. Honestly the design was the only compelling reason to bid on this.
China is an interesting example. They have issued a bunch a limited edition gold coins (some sub-100 mintage), that have retained dollar premium but underperformed bullion by a wide percentage margin.
I agree with you that they are copying what has been done elsewhere. That does not make a 230 US Mint mintage comparable to anything ever done by a foreign mint. As I said before, a Canadian or Australian comp to a 230 US mintage would be around 5. Did they ever make anything with a mintage of 5, and, if so, did it not hold its value?
As evidenced by the results today. Did anyone ever auction off their coins like the Mint did today?
Maybe you thinking this explains where you got your expected valuations from?
Not all mint issues are created equally as evidenced by this one. No one, not even the min, has a crystal ball that works very well in predocting market response. Comparing mint products is a fun academic exercise but not overly meaningful.
Thank you for the gracious admission. For the record, I 1,000,000% agree with you with respect to being a buyer at these levels. I just had a very strong feeling, based on the V75s at 8x the mintage, the silver privys, the signed silver privy COAs, etc., that the results would come in right around where they did.
As far as being buried goes, who knows? But I agree with you that there is no obvious flip at these prices.
We'll see how those being offered on eBay at $50K do. The sellers certainly have some room to move down and still make some money.
But, absent the SB hype, and with eBay fees, I think it's a lot of risk for a modest reward. And, they could very well end up losing money, since anyone really interested knew where to find 230 of them at the same price the sellers paid.
I honestly don't think eBay is the right venue for them, and the sellers might have better luck waiting a few weeks or months and trying to sell them one at a time via a platform like GC. Obviously, they disagreed with our assessment that these are not a flip at these prices, and they think they can move them at a profit to people who missed out.
I think, at these levels, that buyer's remorse is more likely to manifest than people who missed out today feeling the need to pay up on eBay tomorrow. That said, I wish the sellers all the luck in the world, and hope for their sake I am wrong, given how much some of them seem to have tied up in them.
I like it, and would have LOVED to have been a buyer at the prices you and @jmlanzaf were projecting. I just didn't see it.
Not for this design, with this mintage, with this level of marketing and hype. And now, after the fact, I wouldn't chase it up or down. I just accept that, if the Mint is going to go this route, that there will be certain things they make that I will never own.
Which is fine. When the Mint first published pictures of the silver medal with the privy, and we all thought they would all have the privy, most people HATED it, and thought it detracted from the originality of the design. Then, of course, when it became a limited edition lottery prize, everyone wanted one.
Same here. Who really needs it? The Mint also produced a beautiful version, without a distracting privy, also with a very low mintage, that is obtainable by most at a steep, but still attainable premium to spot.
People should just accept these for what they are -- niche products for a niche market. AKA artificial modern mint rarities. @jmlanzaf is right in saying that if the Mint decides to keep going to this well for easy money, at some point people will get bored and start tuning out.
Same as I said about them playing games with announcing maximum mintages and then under producing with no obvious reason why. If collectors cannot afford what the Mint produces, or cannot rely on announced mintages and/or product limits, over time they will move on and find other things to collect.
Yeah. That's the thing with eBay presales by anyone other than established, reputable dealers. It was always a no risk offer for the seller.
Had the coin at a level where the seller couldn't make money, the sale would be canceled because the seller would not deliver. OTOH, if the buyer was stuck with a terrible deal, there is a risk eBay would not allow a refund.
They just never make sense, unless you are dealing with a reputable dealer that you have confidence would take a loss if necessary to fulfill an order, AND you are reasonably sure that the price will be headed up in the near future.
First eBay gold privy sale?
Tim
Full price too if the sale is legit:
Yeah. Maybe the coin actually sold for $50K. Maybe it was a shill. And maybe it sold for a best offer far below $50K.
This is one of the problems with eBay. We'll never know, and, if it's not a legit $50K sale, it could be nothing more than fiction designed to get others to buy one of the other coins the seller has listed, based on nothing more than FOMO.
Really hard to believe anyone gave the seller a $15K flip in less than a day at these levels, although anything is, of course, possible. Unlike SB, no actual transparency here, so call me skeptical.
‘’Prices were really crazy, but at 230 minted, this was basically one of the lowest mintage US mint coins, legal to own, that you can buy for less than $100,000. “
I have US pattern Liberty Nickels (1881-83) in my #1 Registry Set with (R-8) mintages as low as 2-3 coins, legal to own, that are under $100,000. Repeat mintage 3! Not mintage 230.
What happens next year, hypothetically, when the Mint decides to produce another modern privy coin rarity (overnight) with a mintage of just 100 pieces. Are they worth $200,000/coin?
Wondercoin
It didn't sell for best offer or it would say "best offer accepted" and we could find out what the offer was. The buyer of this $50k coin has enough money they don't mess around with negotiating.
Looks like Coinaddict raised his prices $5k.
I expect at least a few to sell at these levels because if you "gotta have it" you don't have any other choice and if you're buying $50k coins a ~25-35% premium isn't the worst thing, especially when you won't really be finding them anywhere cheaper than that in the near future. And the Christmas factor. And there are worse investments than a Pop 230 very popular US mint product.
Of course it's a different audience, US collectors vs Commonwealth collectors. Big deal. Your bias is for US. Theirs is for Commonwealth. But if it soooo different, why is the US Mint copying the Royal Mint playbook?
You can also check out the UK "pattern" auction that the Royal Mint has turned into an annual event I've the last couple of years.
The population of Australia is 27 million, so the equivalent number is 20-25 not 5. The population of the UK is close to 70 million. But Commonwealth collectors oftwn collect the whole commonwealth, so the equivalent number is probably more like 100.
The Royal Mint has had at least two "pattern" auctions with pattern coins of mintages of LESS THAN 10.
The Royal Mint also included resurrected designs in at least one of those auctions. And Canada and the UK are fond of special privy marks.
Yes, the Mint is copying the entire playbook. They have not plowed any virgin soil here. I don't know why US collectors need to feel that they are different and special.
For some reason, no one wants to admit that this has all been done before by the various Commonwealth mints including the "pattern coin" auctions. Your hypothetical is already a reality if you trace these privy patterns back to the V75 coins. We went from 1945 down to 230...100 is dead ahead. The recent UK "patterns" auctioned had mintages of under 10.
This offering is not "one of a kind", it's the second in a series.
Retail arbitrage. That is why dealers were bidding. If you missed the live auction and got outbid but still want a coin or you simply weren't aware of the auction. That's why I felt, and still do, that there was a resale opportunity. I just wasn't comfortable stocking at these prices.
They have already "kept going". This isn't the first scarce privy coin (V75). It's not even the first privy coin this year. It's the first auction, only 2 years after three Royal Mint started doing annual pattern auctions.
https://www.royalmint.com/collect/auction/die-trials-and-pattern-piece/
Prediction: get ready for the off metal trial strikes.
Not true anymore. I have seen many Ebay listings lately where a best offer was accepted but the sold auction price Buy It Now price is showing as the sold price. Must be some kind of system glitch.
Looking at these ask prices; these are still available for less than one bitcoin
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I'd rather have the bitcoin.😉
I would probably accept a half a bitcoin offer or equivalent in USD for mine today, too. Trouble is, I don't understand how to trade in bitcoin and have no idea how to keep the codes, but I do accept bank wires.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Im thinking that many will be unhappy with what they paid once the shine wears off.
I was watching the live bidding, I also bid on a few coins.
I dropped out of bidding once I saw the the numbers pass a reasonable price.
I would not want to own these anywhere north of $25k. I think if you can - flip - make yourself a few grand (maybe).
I worry about long term holds in modern commems (thats what this is - a commem). You just dont know when the next issue appears and the USM does another auction of the new ultra cool commem with 200 maximum, then 150, etc.
It was a speculative buy....and most all can afford the speculation.
As I mentioned in a previous post - inspection of the group of PR70's found that many of them had reverse rim chatter at 6pm.
In the past with many modern issues, this was enough to warrant a PR69 grade.
There was a smaller group that were true 70's.
Box of 20
With all due respect, I was not comparing populations, but rather, mintages of non circulating collectibles.
For the US, 100-250K is not unusual, whereas, for the foreign mints, 2500-5000 is standard. So I used 2% as a proxy.
It's not perfect, but it makes the point. If you want to quibble over 5 versus 20, please be my guest.
You might very well be right. Again, just call me a skeptic.
I'm having a difficult time believing someone with the means and desire was too busy to attend the SB auction, or have someone attend on their behalf, and then turned around and paid a $15K premium, on top of $35K, a few hours later, because they just couldn't live without one.
On eBay of all places. Of course it's possible. I just don't believe it.
In addition to the reverse rim issue documented above, the majority of the coins struck after number 181 seem to have used the same reverse die. It seems this resulted in tiny marks in the very same place on most of the coins including this 70, just as an example.
Most of the first 50 also had the tiny dark "struck through?" mark in the hair that was also discussed earlier in this thread.
A total of 185 were graded 70, as struck, but some were visibly different.
Would CAC ever award a sticker for a "strong for the grade" modern 70 PCGS graded coin like this? It is not in their list, but exceptions have been made.
Would crossing one of these over to a CACG holder add value if it came back 70? It would be a way to get the gold and black label changed out.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
It actually isn't even the first auction. That occurred two years ago! 😀
You just put it in a wallet
True. Although it's the first "pattern" auction. The Dusk to Dawn was even more gimmicky.
I respectfully disagree. Not because I would not feel exactly as you would, but because I think you are still not accepting that people like us are not the intended audience.
Some might get lucky and be able to profitably flip at yesterday's prices. Others hoping to might end up getting stuck.
But the eventual owners of these will be folks who can afford to lose $50K without batting an eye. They are buying to have 1 of 230.
If it holds value or goes up, great. If not, who cares? That's just not us, but I'm pretty sure the people in that position won't be unhappy, because their happiness comes from owning the coin, not from making money on it. That would just be an added bonus.
Some people drive cars worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. They trade them in every so often, and lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in doing so. They don't care. Their happiness comes from owning, driving, and being seen in the car.
Others drive used Toyotas until they fall apart. And this includes people like Warren Buffett who can afford to drive anything. Their happiness comes from not spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on cars. To each their own.
‘’A total of 185 were graded 70, as struck, but some were visibly different.’’
My very strict stickering service (which is why I have declined all offers to date to head up a modern stickering service) would have stickered 60/182 of the 70 grade coins inspected. Detailed notes set aside for future reference. But, again, I personally operate under the opinion that all 70’s are not created equal (and grade out “high end” and “low end” the same as every other grade from 60-69). Others publicly state they can’t even tell the difference between a 69 and 70 graded coin they inspect! 🤣
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
These coins will hold their value except perhaps any extra premium associated with mintage number as I'm not sure how much the secondary market cares about the serial number. There will never be a glut of these on the market and the people who own them will probably not be mass-liquidating them and will probably not sell them at a loss.
Which is why they won't hold value. A coin you can't acquire does not become part of your collection. Especially when there are a dozen similar offerings, the secondary market starts to just shrug. Especially when it's only a privy variety.
And that is why, Mitch, I will never again buy a high dollar modern coin graded without either a live inspection or stated and reliable return/replacement policy. As such, a 69 is good enough for me. I prefer my gold and palladium coins in a slab. I avoid (unless near spot) silver due to spotting, in any grade.
Pursuit of happiness vs contentment.
And, good for you! The service is becoming more necessary.
I like this:
TBD. They are very low mintage modern issues that were purchased at monster premiums to other modern issues, and to their intrinsic value.
As others here have attested, there are a TON of other modern issues that also have very low mintages, although admittedly none quite as low as this. It is therefore established that supply will always be tiny. Supply, though, is only one half of the equation. You also need demand, which is lacking for many of the other low mintage modern issues from the Mint.
Demand at $30-50K+, is not guaranteed into the future, and should not be taken for granted. Should it dissipate, prices can collapse, even though there will never be a "glut." Because one at $50K is a "glut" if you need to sell and the only bid is $10K, $20K, whatever. Which is all some right here were willing to pay, even after seeing how things went yesterday.
"Probably not sell at a loss" is undoubtedly true today, but not necessarily in the future if one's financial circumstances change, people inherit them, etc. Anything at all is always only worth what someone is willing to pay at a given point in time. Yesterday, these were worth $24-40K. Tomorrow's number is really anyone's guess. Glut or no glut.