A couple responses in this thread remind me of someone trying to type a 1,000 word paper in school but they only have 100 words worth of information to say. Let’s see how many different ways we can re-say the same thing and maybe we’ll get to 1,000 words eventually.
Why does anyone think a 230 lot Mint auction is going to be softer than a 700 lot one? Why does anyone think even the least expensive lot is going to sell for less, and not a LOT more, than the 230 silver medals with signed COAs sold for on eBay when they first hit the market? Which, as I recall, was something around $13K.
The issue is having 230 coins going for 5 figures - in your estimation 20k+ each - within a 3 hour increment of time. Sorry but you are dreaming.
The Greysheet price indication is telling you something. Even without a completed sale - this is what the dealer population views these coins will bring.
No one - No one - is going to go out and pay 100% on top of Greysheet bid for one of these one off commemoratives, save for special numbering, first and last, first 25 or 50, etc.
No problem waiting till Thursday; as Ive been more correct than you ever were for these issues. You just dont understand the market. Hopefully, this will be a good learning experience. When youre wrong, youre wrong. That's it.
Why does anyone think a 230 lot Mint auction is going to be softer than a 700 lot one? Why does anyone think even the least expensive lot is going to sell for less, and not a LOT more, than the 230 silver medals with signed COAs sold for on eBay when they first hit the market? Which, as I recall, was something around $13K.
The issue is having 230 coins going for 5 figures - in your estimation 20k+ each - within a 3 hour increment of time. Sorry but you are dreaming.
The Greysheet price indication is telling you something. Even without a completed sale - this is what the dealer population views these coins will bring.
No one - No one - is going to go out and pay 100% on top of Greysheet bid for one of these one off commemoratives, save for special numbering, first and last, first 25 or 50, etc.
No problem waiting till Thursday; as Ive been more correct than you ever were for these issues. You just dont understand the market. Hopefully, this will be a good learning experience. When youre wrong, youre wrong. That's it.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but when has the modern Mint ever 'manufactured' a paltry 230 attributed classic design gold coins?
I give Greysheet credit for going out on a limb and giving value to the Privy FH Au coins up for auction at Stacks Bowers.....but I think they are way off!!!!
Why does anyone think a 230 lot Mint auction is going to be softer than a 700 lot one? Why does anyone think even the least expensive lot is going to sell for less, and not a LOT more, than the 230 silver medals with signed COAs sold for on eBay when they first hit the market? Which, as I recall, was something around $13K.
The issue is having 230 coins going for 5 figures - in your estimation 20k+ each - within a 3 hour increment of time. Sorry but you are dreaming.
The Greysheet price indication is telling you something. Even without a completed sale - this is what the dealer population views these coins will bring.
No one - No one - is going to go out and pay 100% on top of Greysheet bid for one of these one off commemoratives, save for special numbering, first and last, first 25 or 50, etc.
No problem waiting till Thursday; as Ive been more correct than you ever were for these issues. You just dont understand the market. Hopefully, this will be a good learning experience. When youre wrong, youre wrong. That's it.
Some people can't accept the fact they are wrong. This thread contains hundreds of classic textbook examples!!
@MsMorrisine said:
what does 3 hours have to do with anything?
Meaning its a short period of time for the market to ingest 230 5 figure coins.
If you had an extended period of selling, lets say over a month or so, you could slowly let the market ingest them.
This is not a normal typ auction with all different types of rare coins available. This is an auction of 230 of the same coin - a modern gold commem - that has appeal to modern collectors only.
Why does anyone think a 230 lot Mint auction is going to be softer than a 700 lot one? Why does anyone think even the least expensive lot is going to sell for less, and not a LOT more, than the 230 silver medals with signed COAs sold for on eBay when they first hit the market? Which, as I recall, was something around $13K.
The issue is having 230 coins going for 5 figures - in your estimation 20k+ each - within a 3 hour increment of time. Sorry but you are dreaming.
The Greysheet price indication is telling you something. Even without a completed sale - this is what the dealer population views these coins will bring.
No one - No one - is going to go out and pay 100% on top of Greysheet bid for one of these one off commemoratives, save for special numbering, first and last, first 25 or 50, etc.
No problem waiting till Thursday; as Ive been more correct than you ever were for these issues. You just dont understand the market. Hopefully, this will be a good learning experience. When youre wrong, youre wrong. That's it.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but when has the modern Mint ever 'manufactured' a paltry 230 attributed classic design gold coins?
I give Greysheet credit for going out on a limb and giving value to the Privy FH Au coins up for auction at Stacks Bowers.....but I think they are way off!!!!
I dont think they are off at all. I think they have the range correct.
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because you soend more and dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Why does anyone think a 230 lot Mint auction is going to be softer than a 700 lot one? Why does anyone think even the least expensive lot is going to sell for less, and not a LOT more, than the 230 silver medals with signed COAs sold for on eBay when they first hit the market? Which, as I recall, was something around $13K.
The issue is having 230 coins going for 5 figures - in your estimation 20k+ each - within a 3 hour increment of time. Sorry but you are dreaming.
The Greysheet price indication is telling you something. Even without a completed sale - this is what the dealer population views these coins will bring.
No one - No one - is going to go out and pay 100% on top of Greysheet bid for one of these one off commemoratives, save for special numbering, first and last, first 25 or 50, etc.
No problem waiting till Thursday; as Ive been more correct than you ever were for these issues. You just dont understand the market. Hopefully, this will be a good learning experience. When youre wrong, youre wrong. That's it.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but when has the modern Mint ever 'manufactured' a paltry 230 attributed classic design gold coins?
I give Greysheet credit for going out on a limb and giving value to the Privy FH Au coins up for auction at Stacks Bowers.....but I think they are way off!!!!
Why does anyone think a 230 lot Mint auction is going to be softer than a 700 lot one? Why does anyone think even the least expensive lot is going to sell for less, and not a LOT more, than the 230 silver medals with signed COAs sold for on eBay when they first hit the market? Which, as I recall, was something around $13K.
The issue is having 230 coins going for 5 figures - in your estimation 20k+ each - within a 3 hour increment of time. Sorry but you are dreaming.
The Greysheet price indication is telling you something. Even without a completed sale - this is what the dealer population views these coins will bring.
No one - No one - is going to go out and pay 100% on top of Greysheet bid for one of these one off commemoratives, save for special numbering, first and last, first 25 or 50, etc.
No problem waiting till Thursday; as Ive been more correct than you ever were for these issues. You just dont understand the market. Hopefully, this will be a good learning experience. When youre wrong, youre wrong. That's it.
We'll see. I think those Greysheet figures are pure fiction, and that if any dealers think they are actually going to be able to buy at those prices, or drive away competition by getting Greysheet and SB to publish them, they are dreaming.
If I turn out to be wrong, I'll admit it. Loudly and proudly. I hope to see you do the same.
@MsMorrisine said:
what does 3 hours have to do with anything?
EXACTLY!!! @coiner is confusing a SB auction with a flea market, and does not believe there will be enough capital in one place at one time to support the valuations that I am attributing to these lots.
He thinks I am the one who is going to schooled here. I respectfully disagree.
Why does anyone think a 230 lot Mint auction is going to be softer than a 700 lot one? Why does anyone think even the least expensive lot is going to sell for less, and not a LOT more, than the 230 silver medals with signed COAs sold for on eBay when they first hit the market? Which, as I recall, was something around $13K.
The issue is having 230 coins going for 5 figures - in your estimation 20k+ each - within a 3 hour increment of time. Sorry but you are dreaming.
The Greysheet price indication is telling you something. Even without a completed sale - this is what the dealer population views these coins will bring.
No one - No one - is going to go out and pay 100% on top of Greysheet bid for one of these one off commemoratives, save for special numbering, first and last, first 25 or 50, etc.
No problem waiting till Thursday; as Ive been more correct than you ever were for these issues. You just dont understand the market. Hopefully, this will be a good learning experience. When youre wrong, youre wrong. That's it.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but when has the modern Mint ever 'manufactured' a paltry 230 attributed classic design gold coins?
I give Greysheet credit for going out on a limb and giving value to the Privy FH Au coins up for auction at Stacks Bowers.....but I think they are way off!!!!
@coiner said:
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
@coiner said:
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I'm shocked (not) that you don't actually listen. What word did I put in front of "arbitrage"? I'll give you a hint, it was NOT wholesale.
230 is not very many. If you think about it it’s less than 5 people per state
It all depends on hype. If pricing stays light and the dealers pick up the vast majority of them for resale the ask price will be more that they paid obviously.
Or if retail people get the majority I think the pricing will be higher but those will be in strong hands you might see these go to the moon after the sale.
It’s
Really hard to say for someone like me that’s not in the fold. Dealers already have a good idea of this market
@MsMorrisine said:
what does 3 hours have to do with anything?
EXACTLY!!! @coiner is confusing a SB auction with a flea market, and does not believe there will be enough capital in one place at one time to support the valuations that I am attributing to these lots.
He thinks I am the one who is going to schooled here. I respectfully disagree.
You will be wrong AGAIN. The problem is you will never admit it.
But no one will care. Just like they dont care what you have spewed over the last 31 pages.
@NJCoin said:
I have no doubt dealers, @jmlanzaf, and you would love to get their mitts on these at anything close to $8-12K. But, it's just not going to happen. Maybe in 5-10 years, if people get bored and move on, and if gold collapses, but not this coming Thursday.
Would you agree that the premium for these coins will be much much lower in 2034 ?
you don't want a summary of this thread
check sold prices on ebay
there are 230 with a "230" privy with exact coining ordinals on signed coa auctioning on SB right now, only a few days left before it goes live
coin #1 also comes with "X" cancelled dies and a display case. bidding at $170,000 right now
it was first reported all 17,500 were minted and sold. early us mint sales reports said only 10k sold. after conflicting statements from the mint, they last said they planned to do 17,500 but only did 10k and will not make any more
@coiner said:
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I'm shocked (not) that you don't actually listen. What word did I put in front of "arbitrage"? I'll give you a hint, it was NOT wholesale.
Sorry. Where I come from "retail arbitrage" means buying wholesale and selling retail. Not buying retail and selling at higher retail.
Lower retail is usually wholesale. If not in your case, great. Doesn't matter, because you are not going to find any arbitrage at all here. Wholesale, retail, or anything else, however you want to define it. You'll be able to buy at full retail, or not buy at all.
@coiner said:
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I'm shocked (not) that you don't actually listen. What word did I put in front of "arbitrage"? I'll give you a hint, it was NOT wholesale.
Sorry. Where I come from "retail arbitrage" means buying wholesale and selling retail. Not buying retail and selling at higher retail.
Lower retail is usually wholesale. If not in your case, great. Doesn't matter, because you are not going to find any arbitrage at all here. Wholesale, retail, or anything else, however you want to define it. You'll be able to buy at full retail, or not buy at all.
I'd call it bulk retail, which is pretty much wholesale. When you're unloading this quantity of 5 figure coins all at once, the market is momentarily saturated.
@Goldminers said:
Does anyone know if this Stacks auction will be done by a live person when it starts, or their usual automated computer-generated live bid system like for their precious metal bullion they do every Thursday?
@NJCoin said:
I have no doubt dealers, @jmlanzaf, and you would love to get their mitts on these at anything close to $8-12K. But, it's just not going to happen. Maybe in 5-10 years, if people get bored and move on, and if gold collapses, but not this coming Thursday.
Would you agree that the premium for these coins will be much much lower in 2034 ?
Very possibly. I honestly have no way to know. I'm not touting these as investments. Or even as stores of value. I'm just saying they will going to the moon on 12/12/24.
Whether or not they stay there, go higher, or crash is far beyond my scope of knowledge. I do know that there is a price at which I'd love to own one, but I have no illusions that they will actually hammer anywhere close to that level.
Beyond that is beyond my comfort level, so whether or not they hold their value in the future is not going to be of any concern to me. Suffice it to say that I have never owned anything with a mintage below 1,000, other than maybe some trinkets from a foreign mint or two. Maybe.
Those who disagree clearly are just hoping to be able to score a deal, as though they will be able to sell them after the fact for more than SB is going to be getting with all the marketing muscle they are putting behind it. And as though they see value in a 230 pop modern issue that the rest of world cannot see.
Like something with a mintage of 230 is not going to be worth more than double another variety with a mintage of 10-17.5K. Until they get their hands on it and mark it up via eBay. Because the SB auction is a big secret only a select few insiders like us know about, and there is no way 230 can be sold in a single auction session at full retail value. 🤣
Whether or not anyone cares about this in 10 years, after the crowds have moved on to the next Big Thing, is anyone's guess.
@coiner said:
I bet with all that talk, NJCoin will not be a bidder on even one of the coins.
Lots of talk, but not walking the walk.
What walk am I not walking? The one where I cannot afford to spend $20K plus on a single coin?
I never said I could or would. You guys are the ones doing a lot of talking, as though you will be buying anything anywhere close to either side of $10K, or successfully engaging in so-called "retail arbitrage."
You are just going to be blown away with your bids, and left shaking your heads. Claiming that I am nothing more than the broken clock who happened to be right this time. I can't wait. 😀
@coiner said:
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I'm shocked (not) that you don't actually listen. What word did I put in front of "arbitrage"? I'll give you a hint, it was NOT wholesale.
Sorry. Where I come from "retail arbitrage" means buying wholesale and selling retail. Not buying retail and selling at higher retail.
Lower retail is usually wholesale. If not in your case, great. Doesn't matter, because you are not going to find any arbitrage at all here. Wholesale, retail, or anything else, however you want to define it. You'll be able to buy at full retail, or not buy at all.
I'd call it bulk retail, which is pretty much wholesale. When you're unloading this quantity of 5 figure coins all at once, the market is momentarily saturated.
Fair enough. I just respectfully disagree.
Maybe if the Mint was sending them out to a few ABPPs through a side door. Not so much in a public auction. Which is precisely why they are being sold via this vehicle.
The world will be online at noon EDT on Thursday. This is a nothing quantity for the US Mint to move through a major auction house.
They moved 700 lots of bullion in the exact same manner 2 years ago, and realized top dollar for each and every lot. These are special coins, in addition to special labels and special COAs, and there are only 230 of them for worldwide distribution.
The last time, the only thing special about the coins was the attribution. No mint mark. No privy. Each and every lot will be sold at "full retail." Not "bulk retail," or wholesale. Just like the last time.
The hype surrounding the auction will create a bidding frenzy. The "momentary saturation" will manifest the minute Lot #230 closes.
Which is why there will be no flip. Not why any single lot will sell for anything anyone here considers reasonable, considering it is a modern issue containing around $2700 worth of gold.
@coiner said:
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I'm shocked (not) that you don't actually listen. What word did I put in front of "arbitrage"? I'll give you a hint, it was NOT wholesale.
Sorry. Where I come from "retail arbitrage" means buying wholesale and selling retail. Not buying retail and selling at higher retail.
Lower retail is usually wholesale. If not in your case, great. Doesn't matter, because you are not going to find any arbitrage at all here. Wholesale, retail, or anything else, however you want to define it. You'll be able to buy at full retail, or not buy at all.
Maybe Google the term. Retail arbitrage, by definition, means buying from a retail venue and moving it to a different retail venue at a higher price. That's why it's arbitrage. Buying wholesale and selling retail is NOT arbitrage, it's just normal retail.
Yawn.
Unlike you, I will not be either shocked or incorrect no matter what happens as I have left open the possibility of higher prices and have not pompously guaranteed the price or the arbitrage opportunity.
@Goldminers said:
Does anyone know if this Stacks auction will be done by a live person when it starts, or their usual automated computer-generated live bid system like for their precious metal bullion they do every Thursday?
Was this answered?
I was curious too. So, I called SBG.
Rep said it was going to be a live person. You will have to login to view it.
@coiner said:
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I'm shocked (not) that you don't actually listen. What word did I put in front of "arbitrage"? I'll give you a hint, it was NOT wholesale.
Sorry. Where I come from "retail arbitrage" means buying wholesale and selling retail. Not buying retail and selling at higher retail.
Lower retail is usually wholesale. If not in your case, great. Doesn't matter, because you are not going to find any arbitrage at all here. Wholesale, retail, or anything else, however you want to define it. You'll be able to buy at full retail, or not buy at all.
Maybe Google the term. Retail arbitrage, by definition, means buying from a retail venue and moving it to a different retail venue at a higher price. That's why it's arbitrage. Buying wholesale and selling retail is NOT arbitrage, it's just normal retail.
Yawn.
Unlike you, I will not be either shocked or incorrect no matter what happens as I have left open the possibility of higher prices and have not pompously guaranteed the price or the arbitrage opportunity.
Good for you. You have no opinion, and won't be wrong no matter what happens. So why have you been posting?
To tell me I'm wrong? That means you do actually have an opinion, doesn't it?
Or is it just to add insight by letting us know bidding will either be strong or it won't, and there will either be a flip or there won't?
Good for you. You have no opinion, and won't be wrong no matter what happens. So why have you been posting?
To tell me I'm wrong? That means you do actually have an opinion, doesn't it?
Or is it just to add insight by letting us know bidding will either be strong or it won't, and there will either be a flip or there won't?
It's a valid position to state that you don't know what the exact end result will be. That's better than constantly making illogical guesses that would make my old professor of logic spin in his grave.
If you go back through the results of coin auctions at major auction houses, you will find that MANY coins are purchased by dealers/flippers and immediately listed for sale, some at sizeable markups. The results of well publicized and well attended auctions range from below wholesale to above retail. That's just the way to goes.
So yes, it is entirely possible that these coins will have a fair bit of meat left on the bone, and it's also possible that the secondary market won't exceed these prices. That said, I would be astonished if there aren't examples for sale after this auction for 20%+ more than the purchase price.
@coiner said:
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I'm shocked (not) that you don't actually listen. What word did I put in front of "arbitrage"? I'll give you a hint, it was NOT wholesale.
Sorry. Where I come from "retail arbitrage" means buying wholesale and selling retail. Not buying retail and selling at higher retail.
Lower retail is usually wholesale. If not in your case, great. Doesn't matter, because you are not going to find any arbitrage at all here. Wholesale, retail, or anything else, however you want to define it. You'll be able to buy at full retail, or not buy at all.
Maybe Google the term. Retail arbitrage, by definition, means buying from a retail venue and moving it to a different retail venue at a higher price. That's why it's arbitrage. Buying wholesale and selling retail is NOT arbitrage, it's just normal retail.
Yawn.
Unlike you, I will not be either shocked or incorrect no matter what happens as I have left open the possibility of higher prices and have not pompously guaranteed the price or the arbitrage opportunity.
Good for you. You have no opinion, and won't be wrong no matter what happens. So why have you been posting?
To tell me I'm wrong? That means you do actually have an opinion, doesn't it?
Or is it just to add insight by letting us know bidding will either be strong or it won't, and there will either be a flip or there won't?
I have an opinion. I lack the hubris to guarantee it and I lack the vanity to strut... before we even know the outcome, no less.
@coiner said:
Couple of crazy flips from years ago:
1) 1999 Delaware State Qtr Mini Bags $25 face - selling price $29.95; for a while hit $600 + per mini bag
2) 1999 Silver Proof Sets - selling price $19.95; selling price around $200-$300 depending on when you sold
3) 2004 Platinum Proofs
3a) 2005 Minnesota State Qtrs Double Tree - 0.25 face value; $100 bucks each in the fever
4) 2006 Gold Anniversary Sets; Silver Anniversary Sets
5) 2006-W/2007-W/2008-W Plainum and Gold Sets - Burnished Unc and Proof
5a) 2007 Wash Dollar - Missing Edge Lettering - 1.00 face value; $275-$300 each in the fever
5b) 2007 Adams Dollar - Double Edge Lettering - 1.00 face value; $85-$100 each in the fever
6) 2008-W Buffalo Unc and Proof 4 coins sets (and singles)
7) 2008-W Reverse of 2007 Silver Eagles
8) 2011 5 piece 25th anniversary Silver Sets
These have held steady for years. Some are collecting these First Spouse Medal Sets.
@Goldminers said:
Does anyone know if this Stacks auction will be done by a live person when it starts, or their usual automated computer-generated live bid system like for their precious metal bullion they do every Thursday?
Was this answered?
I was curious too. So, I called SBG.
Rep said it was going to be a live person. You will have to login to view it.
Thanks @MetroD .....glad you posted this because my Stacks contact info was long gone.
Less than one day to go, and already VERY few remaining bids below $10K. Where's my fan club now?
@coiner? Anything to say? Still $7-9K, tops, for generic 69s? There are still going to be 230 lots going in one fell swoop. Where do you think all this money is coming from? 🤣
No one seems to have a problem posting to let me know when I am wrong. 😀
You’re not wrong OR right yet. You thought 69s would be closer to 20k and 70s would “far exceed that”. They very well may, but don’t celebrate too early
@NJCoin said:
Less than one day to go, and already VERY few remaining bids below $10K. Where's my fan club now?
I just scrolled through the listings. 106 are still below $10k. Very few you say? I’ll disagree with you there.
@NJCoin said:
Less than one day to go, and already VERY few remaining bids below $10K. Where's my fan club now?
@coiner? Anything to say? Still $7-9K, tops, for generic 69s? There are still going to be 230 lots going in one fell swoop. Where do you think all this money is coming from? 🤣
No one seems to have a problem posting to let me know when I am wrong. 😀
@NJCoin said:
Less than one day to go, and already VERY few remaining bids below $10K. Where's my fan club now?
@coiner? Anything to say? Still $7-9K, tops, for generic 69s? There are still going to be 230 lots going in one fell swoop. Where do you think all this money is coming from? 🤣
No one seems to have a problem posting to let me know when I am wrong. 😀
I reckon there are dealers out there who are willing to buy dozens or as many as they can at $10k. Above that I'm not so sure, but $10k seems to be a floor for 70's and maybe even 69's.
@jwitten said:
You’re not wrong OR right yet. You thought 69s would be closer to 20k and 70s would “far exceed that”. They very well may, but don’t celebrate too early
@NJCoin said:
Less than one day to go, and already VERY few remaining bids below $10K. Where's my fan club now?
No one seems to have a problem posting to let me know when I am wrong. 😀
Sorry, but I've licking my wounds, waiting for this since the silver medals held their value, before I knew the Mint short produced them. So I'm a little anxious.
I stand by 69s being north of $15K, and 70s "far" exceeding that. Not sure yet how far "far" is going to be, but "far." Depends on how many "special coins" people choose to strip out of the equation.
Not really a "celebration," since I would have loved to have been able to get one if @jmlanzaf was right and there was a "retail arbitrage." I am just going to enjoy having nailed this, after whiffing on the ones where the Mint was able and willing to throw curve balls.
Some people thought 3 weeks ago that early bids were somehow representative of where things were going to end up. They were wrong then, and it is no less untrue now.
Most lots now exceeding $10K is only an indication that I am right. That number is still not indicative of where anything is going to sell. Neither are fictional dealer bids expressed through the Greysheet.
Dealers will be buying these at auction along with the rest of the world. Not by pointing to a publication that published a self-serving bid, and convincing anyone that is the market.
$8-10K was nonsense, as was $10-12K. Those were dealer dreams, endorsed by the dreamers here, who drew false confidence when SB published it.
SB published it to show the Mint what a great job it did when the results far exceed the quotes. I guess dealers did it to dissuade retail from bidding.
Not sure why they thought it would work. As though people wanting to acquire one are going to sit by and let @jmlanzaf and others engage in "retail arbitrage" by allowing them to buy these at auction at prices they deem reasonable, only to mark them up for later resale, rather than just bidding at the auction and letting the market decide what the price should be.
Which was always exactly what was going to happen. Not by accident, but by design. Dealers who want these for resale to clients will be paying full retail along with everyone else.
Their ability to mark them up will be determined by their clients' willingness to overpay for the privilege of not having to deal with the live auction. Not by a "retail arbitrage" opportunity.
EBay hucksters are likely to get burned trying to flip these. Sharpsters like @jmlanzaf will end up taking a pass, denying they were wrong about these because they never "guaranteed" anything, unlike arrogant folks like me.
@jwitten said:
I just scrolled through the listings. 106 are still below $10k. Very few you say? I’ll disagree with you there.
@NJCoin said:
Less than one day to go, and already VERY few remaining bids below $10K. Where's my fan club now?
@coiner? Anything to say? Still $7-9K, tops, for generic 69s? There are still going to be 230 lots going in one fell swoop. Where do you think all this money is coming from? 🤣
No one seems to have a problem posting to let me know when I am wrong. 😀
Sorry, I didn't do a count. I just noticed that a lot popped to $10-11K. Which doesn't really matter, because exactly ZERO will be below $10K when the hammer starts dropping tomorrow.
@NJCoin said:
Less than one day to go, and already VERY few remaining bids below $10K. Where's my fan club now?
@coiner? Anything to say? Still $7-9K, tops, for generic 69s? There are still going to be 230 lots going in one fell swoop. Where do you think all this money is coming from? 🤣
No one seems to have a problem posting to let me know when I am wrong. 😀
I reckon there are dealers out there who are willing to buy dozens or as many as they can at $10k. Above that I'm not so sure, but $10k seems to be a floor for 70's and maybe even 69's.
Key word is "seems." Yes, of course, dealers will buy at that level, because they will be no risk home runs there. Not because that's all they're worth, as @coiner has been saying from the beginning.
Reading between the lines, as expressed by @jmlanzaf, dealers will see a "retail aribitrage" at varying levels, based on their client mix, access to capital, expected markup, etc. At the right price, any one of a dozen or more of them would be willing and able to take down the entire sale.
Unfortunately for them, the sale is being marketed to the world, and no one who wants one will have to go through a dealer to get one. Given that there are only ever going to be 230, I think, and always thought, that there would be sufficient demand for retail to absorb the entire sale. At what most here would consider moon money prices.
As that starts to manifest, lot by lot, dealers not working on behalf of clients with whom they have pre-existing agreements will drop out. Their "floors" will mean nothing, because there is going to be no edge for them to compete with retail for these in the hope of being able to mark them up later, because, in the words of one poster, "some people only like to buy on eBay."
It will be quite a gamble for a dealer to buy on spec in the hope that an eBay buyer on Friday will be willing to pay more than a SB buyer on Thursday. The proof will be asking @jmlanzaf how many he picked up once the sale is over.
Because we can all be sure, if it turns out that his hoped for "retail arbitrage" presents itself, he'll be all over it. And, if not, it's unlikely dealers who are in business to make money are going to be sinking moon money into these for inventory.
Comments
Anyone have a link to the FHG auction? I think it'd be fun to watch the bidding on the crazy 230.
I keep hitting it but nothing happened. 😉
A couple responses in this thread remind me of someone trying to type a 1,000 word paper in school but they only have 100 words worth of information to say. Let’s see how many different ways we can re-say the same thing and maybe we’ll get to 1,000 words eventually.
The issue is having 230 coins going for 5 figures - in your estimation 20k+ each - within a 3 hour increment of time. Sorry but you are dreaming.
The Greysheet price indication is telling you something. Even without a completed sale - this is what the dealer population views these coins will bring.
No one - No one - is going to go out and pay 100% on top of Greysheet bid for one of these one off commemoratives, save for special numbering, first and last, first 25 or 50, etc.
No problem waiting till Thursday; as Ive been more correct than you ever were for these issues. You just dont understand the market. Hopefully, this will be a good learning experience. When youre wrong, youre wrong. That's it.
what does 3 hours have to do with anything?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but when has the modern Mint ever 'manufactured' a paltry 230 attributed classic design gold coins?
I give Greysheet credit for going out on a limb and giving value to the Privy FH Au coins up for auction at Stacks Bowers.....but I think they are way off!!!!
GreySheet Link
Some people can't accept the fact they are wrong. This thread contains hundreds of classic textbook examples!!
a gold dollar that weighs a troy ounce of pure gold. that's inflation
Meaning its a short period of time for the market to ingest 230 5 figure coins.
If you had an extended period of selling, lets say over a month or so, you could slowly let the market ingest them.
This is not a normal typ auction with all different types of rare coins available. This is an auction of 230 of the same coin - a modern gold commem - that has appeal to modern collectors only.
I dont think they are off at all. I think they have the range correct.
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because you soend more and dont think or reselling anytime soon.
Whoever chooses to pay over that range basically is buried in the coin. Hope you like it - because if you spend more.... dont think or reselling anytime soon.
good luck all.
nearly identical, too
the online bidding is that month
I doubt Greysheet created the price. They are probably dealer bids on the CDN Exchange
We'll see. I think those Greysheet figures are pure fiction, and that if any dealers think they are actually going to be able to buy at those prices, or drive away competition by getting Greysheet and SB to publish them, they are dreaming.
If I turn out to be wrong, I'll admit it. Loudly and proudly. I hope to see you do the same.
EXACTLY!!! @coiner is confusing a SB auction with a flea market, and does not believe there will be enough capital in one place at one time to support the valuations that I am attributing to these lots.
He thinks I am the one who is going to schooled here. I respectfully disagree.
31 pages !?
What did I miss? Can someone summarize for me? 😅
Founder- Peak Rarities
Website
Instagram
Facebook
Already up from $8-12K, before a single one has changed hands. 🤣
Some here are going to be shocked when the lots start to close.
Now you're starting to clue into what I've been saying. You and @jmlanzaf seem to be thinking this is going to be a wholesale auction, giving sharpies like you a margin to flip within.
I happen to think you are way off base, and what you just said is exactly what you are going to be saying on Thursday when you see that I've been right all along. It's a retail auction. Marketed to the world.
The buyers should expect to hold them, because there is not going to be a flip at the prices they will be going for. Which is not to say some dealers will not be representing clients for a predetermined markup, or commission. But is to say that folks like you are not going to see value at prices you are imagining, so you'll just be left shaking your head at how suckers are "buried."
Maybe yes, maybe no. But auctions like this are meant to ramp up the hype, and firms like SB are very successful at that. Which is why each and every lot, from #1 to the least expensive, "generic" 69, will realize full value. Not $8K. Not $10K. Not Greysheet dealer bid.
Maybe not quite $20K, but a lot closer to that than any number you have been speculating about. Because when people see where the 70s go, they will bid up the 69s if they want one and are not comfortable paying the 70 price for what is basically the exact same coin.
Enough people will want one, relative to the number available, to drive bidding far beyond where you imagine. Enough money at one place at one time is not going to be an issue, because the auction is here and now. There is not going to be another one next week or next month, and everyone interested knows that. So they will be there, with their checkbooks wide open.
230 lots is NOTHING, and many live SB and HA auctions gross far more than this auction is going to gross, regardless of whether lots average $10K each, $30K, whatever.
I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the exact opposite. I'm shocked (not) that you don't actually listen. What word did I put in front of "arbitrage"? I'll give you a hint, it was NOT wholesale.
230 is not very many. If you think about it it’s less than 5 people per state
It all depends on hype. If pricing stays light and the dealers pick up the vast majority of them for resale the ask price will be more that they paid obviously.
Or if retail people get the majority I think the pricing will be higher but those will be in strong hands you might see these go to the moon after the sale.
It’s
Really hard to say for someone like me that’s not in the fold. Dealers already have a good idea of this market
Martin
You will be wrong AGAIN. The problem is you will never admit it.
But no one will care. Just like they dont care what you have spewed over the last 31 pages.
I bet with all that talk, NJCoin will not be a bidder on even one of the coins.
Lots of talk, but not walking the walk.
Would you agree that the premium for these coins will be much much lower in 2034 ?
you don't want a summary of this thread
check sold prices on ebay
there are 230 with a "230" privy with exact coining ordinals on signed coa auctioning on SB right now, only a few days left before it goes live
coin #1 also comes with "X" cancelled dies and a display case. bidding at $170,000 right now
it was first reported all 17,500 were minted and sold. early us mint sales reports said only 10k sold. after conflicting statements from the mint, they last said they planned to do 17,500 but only did 10k and will not make any more
don't read the rest
Sorry. Where I come from "retail arbitrage" means buying wholesale and selling retail. Not buying retail and selling at higher retail.
Lower retail is usually wholesale. If not in your case, great. Doesn't matter, because you are not going to find any arbitrage at all here. Wholesale, retail, or anything else, however you want to define it. You'll be able to buy at full retail, or not buy at all.
I'd call it bulk retail, which is pretty much wholesale. When you're unloading this quantity of 5 figure coins all at once, the market is momentarily saturated.
Was this answered?
Very possibly. I honestly have no way to know. I'm not touting these as investments. Or even as stores of value. I'm just saying they will going to the moon on 12/12/24.
Whether or not they stay there, go higher, or crash is far beyond my scope of knowledge. I do know that there is a price at which I'd love to own one, but I have no illusions that they will actually hammer anywhere close to that level.
Beyond that is beyond my comfort level, so whether or not they hold their value in the future is not going to be of any concern to me. Suffice it to say that I have never owned anything with a mintage below 1,000, other than maybe some trinkets from a foreign mint or two. Maybe.
Those who disagree clearly are just hoping to be able to score a deal, as though they will be able to sell them after the fact for more than SB is going to be getting with all the marketing muscle they are putting behind it. And as though they see value in a 230 pop modern issue that the rest of world cannot see.
Like something with a mintage of 230 is not going to be worth more than double another variety with a mintage of 10-17.5K. Until they get their hands on it and mark it up via eBay. Because the SB auction is a big secret only a select few insiders like us know about, and there is no way 230 can be sold in a single auction session at full retail value. 🤣
Whether or not anyone cares about this in 10 years, after the crowds have moved on to the next Big Thing, is anyone's guess.
What walk am I not walking? The one where I cannot afford to spend $20K plus on a single coin?
I never said I could or would. You guys are the ones doing a lot of talking, as though you will be buying anything anywhere close to either side of $10K, or successfully engaging in so-called "retail arbitrage."
You are just going to be blown away with your bids, and left shaking your heads. Claiming that I am nothing more than the broken clock who happened to be right this time. I can't wait. 😀
Fair enough. I just respectfully disagree.
Maybe if the Mint was sending them out to a few ABPPs through a side door. Not so much in a public auction. Which is precisely why they are being sold via this vehicle.
The world will be online at noon EDT on Thursday. This is a nothing quantity for the US Mint to move through a major auction house.
They moved 700 lots of bullion in the exact same manner 2 years ago, and realized top dollar for each and every lot. These are special coins, in addition to special labels and special COAs, and there are only 230 of them for worldwide distribution.
The last time, the only thing special about the coins was the attribution. No mint mark. No privy. Each and every lot will be sold at "full retail." Not "bulk retail," or wholesale. Just like the last time.
The hype surrounding the auction will create a bidding frenzy. The "momentary saturation" will manifest the minute Lot #230 closes.
Which is why there will be no flip. Not why any single lot will sell for anything anyone here considers reasonable, considering it is a modern issue containing around $2700 worth of gold.
I don't know. There's a lot of people who for whatever reason are only willing or able to buy coins on ebay rather than the mint.
there's also the group of people that order stuff off tv
"they don't know better"
Maybe Google the term. Retail arbitrage, by definition, means buying from a retail venue and moving it to a different retail venue at a higher price. That's why it's arbitrage. Buying wholesale and selling retail is NOT arbitrage, it's just normal retail.
Yawn.
Unlike you, I will not be either shocked or incorrect no matter what happens as I have left open the possibility of higher prices and have not pompously guaranteed the price or the arbitrage opportunity.
POP Report as of December 10, 2024.
11.4% of non-privy coins graded PR69DCAM
PCGS has now graded 1805 non-privy coins or ~18.1% of the total mintage.
I was curious too. So, I called SBG.
Rep said it was going to be a live person. You will have to login to view it.
Good for you. You have no opinion, and won't be wrong no matter what happens. So why have you been posting?
To tell me I'm wrong? That means you do actually have an opinion, doesn't it?
Or is it just to add insight by letting us know bidding will either be strong or it won't, and there will either be a flip or there won't?
It's a valid position to state that you don't know what the exact end result will be. That's better than constantly making illogical guesses that would make my old professor of logic spin in his grave.
If you go back through the results of coin auctions at major auction houses, you will find that MANY coins are purchased by dealers/flippers and immediately listed for sale, some at sizeable markups. The results of well publicized and well attended auctions range from below wholesale to above retail. That's just the way to goes.
So yes, it is entirely possible that these coins will have a fair bit of meat left on the bone, and it's also possible that the secondary market won't exceed these prices. That said, I would be astonished if there aren't examples for sale after this auction for 20%+ more than the purchase price.
I have an opinion. I lack the hubris to guarantee it and I lack the vanity to strut... before we even know the outcome, no less.
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These have held steady for years. Some are collecting these First Spouse Medal Sets.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/387206718927?_skw=hoover+first+spouse+medal+sets&itmmeta=01JERQAWW76DJ2FDMVCZENB9VV&hash=item5a2751a5cf:g:NiIAAOSwSY1mlcqG&itmprp=enc:AQAJAAABAHoV3kP08IDx+KZ9MfhVJKmsqxwTs3xR+xx/c/x4bOXuteF7aAotk114uYm/9SnBV0vyH77V27WGjsZtM3aGSsWFy/b4ms+KsW6x+Ml9kEJSlpqZboVUnkSsX57lubH54L7iM8SrdAShKmVHLm8K/TANpb3w1OgfczOeA47svLKokhzn8Bb2g079oyDfTmTF0ytwb8NHZBE/r6K4zCmhy7ejUIYRYy9VOHEebATSsCbUKB9vbZfR2fJmPRNqPKNcEz7x7RrKEALFEeBZdQYFogZhBs2Wd2tpgthalApXOn306p9b/bF20HwmsLlZQ6KB497ViexoydTBuC6v08vtH4Q=|tkp:Bk9SR5TOq5f2ZA
Box of 20
Thanks @MetroD .....glad you posted this because my Stacks contact info was long gone.
Less than one day to go, and already VERY few remaining bids below $10K. Where's my fan club now?
@coiner? Anything to say? Still $7-9K, tops, for generic 69s? There are still going to be 230 lots going in one fell swoop. Where do you think all this money is coming from? 🤣
No one seems to have a problem posting to let me know when I am wrong. 😀
You’re not wrong OR right yet. You thought 69s would be closer to 20k and 70s would “far exceed that”. They very well may, but don’t celebrate too early
I just scrolled through the listings. 106 are still below $10k. Very few you say? I’ll disagree with you there.
I reckon there are dealers out there who are willing to buy dozens or as many as they can at $10k. Above that I'm not so sure, but $10k seems to be a floor for 70's and maybe even 69's.
Sorry, but I've licking my wounds, waiting for this since the silver medals held their value, before I knew the Mint short produced them. So I'm a little anxious.
I stand by 69s being north of $15K, and 70s "far" exceeding that. Not sure yet how far "far" is going to be, but "far." Depends on how many "special coins" people choose to strip out of the equation.
Not really a "celebration," since I would have loved to have been able to get one if @jmlanzaf was right and there was a "retail arbitrage." I am just going to enjoy having nailed this, after whiffing on the ones where the Mint was able and willing to throw curve balls.
Some people thought 3 weeks ago that early bids were somehow representative of where things were going to end up. They were wrong then, and it is no less untrue now.
Most lots now exceeding $10K is only an indication that I am right. That number is still not indicative of where anything is going to sell. Neither are fictional dealer bids expressed through the Greysheet.
Dealers will be buying these at auction along with the rest of the world. Not by pointing to a publication that published a self-serving bid, and convincing anyone that is the market.
$8-10K was nonsense, as was $10-12K. Those were dealer dreams, endorsed by the dreamers here, who drew false confidence when SB published it.
SB published it to show the Mint what a great job it did when the results far exceed the quotes. I guess dealers did it to dissuade retail from bidding.
Not sure why they thought it would work. As though people wanting to acquire one are going to sit by and let @jmlanzaf and others engage in "retail arbitrage" by allowing them to buy these at auction at prices they deem reasonable, only to mark them up for later resale, rather than just bidding at the auction and letting the market decide what the price should be.
Which was always exactly what was going to happen. Not by accident, but by design. Dealers who want these for resale to clients will be paying full retail along with everyone else.
Their ability to mark them up will be determined by their clients' willingness to overpay for the privilege of not having to deal with the live auction. Not by a "retail arbitrage" opportunity.
EBay hucksters are likely to get burned trying to flip these. Sharpsters like @jmlanzaf will end up taking a pass, denying they were wrong about these because they never "guaranteed" anything, unlike arrogant folks like me.
Sorry, I didn't do a count. I just noticed that a lot popped to $10-11K. Which doesn't really matter, because exactly ZERO will be below $10K when the hammer starts dropping tomorrow.
Key word is "seems." Yes, of course, dealers will buy at that level, because they will be no risk home runs there. Not because that's all they're worth, as @coiner has been saying from the beginning.
Reading between the lines, as expressed by @jmlanzaf, dealers will see a "retail aribitrage" at varying levels, based on their client mix, access to capital, expected markup, etc. At the right price, any one of a dozen or more of them would be willing and able to take down the entire sale.
Unfortunately for them, the sale is being marketed to the world, and no one who wants one will have to go through a dealer to get one. Given that there are only ever going to be 230, I think, and always thought, that there would be sufficient demand for retail to absorb the entire sale. At what most here would consider moon money prices.
As that starts to manifest, lot by lot, dealers not working on behalf of clients with whom they have pre-existing agreements will drop out. Their "floors" will mean nothing, because there is going to be no edge for them to compete with retail for these in the hope of being able to mark them up later, because, in the words of one poster, "some people only like to buy on eBay."
It will be quite a gamble for a dealer to buy on spec in the hope that an eBay buyer on Friday will be willing to pay more than a SB buyer on Thursday. The proof will be asking @jmlanzaf how many he picked up once the sale is over.
Because we can all be sure, if it turns out that his hoped for "retail arbitrage" presents itself, he'll be all over it. And, if not, it's unlikely dealers who are in business to make money are going to be sinking moon money into these for inventory.
Just did this spreadsheet on the lots under $10k.
Check out Lot #230..
would the 70's below 10,000 be a bargain? why or why not?