@coiner said:
Raw SILVER 230 PRIVY - SIGNED CERT closes on ebay for 5530.00. Looks like the higher prices are taking a nose dive for these.
I still say for the majority of the 230 GOLD PRIVIES - over 10k is gonna be a stretch. (This is of course excluding the #1 w/dies; and fancy numbers i.e. 230; possibly first 10 or 20 numbered)
We'll see. Nice to see you sticking to your guns, but it sure looks to me like the least expensive of these are actually going to have a difficult time staying under $20K, rather than stretching to hit $10K.
Check across all 230 auctions. They are not all over 20k - not even close. Again, im sticking to my prediction- the vast majority (other than special numbering, etc) will have a hard time closing over 10k. The 69's are probably gonna go for 7,000.
If you see over 10k-- youre gonna see a whole bunch grouped in the 10-12k range.
It will not eclipse the V75 Gold Eagle.
By the way - im sure many do not know - you must be "cleared" by the auction house for any bids over $5k. Some may not even gain clearance which will limit the pool of bidders.
I'm afraid you just don't understand how these auctions work, but you are going to learn in the next 2 weeks. This does, however, explain why the early results have not altered your view.
Serious bidders are not going to get involved until the live auction starts. They don't show their hands weeks ahead of time. This isn't eBay.
Nothing is going to go for anywhere near $10K. They will all eclipse comparable V75 ASEs. The pool of bidders is SB's worldwide customer base. Not people who are ineligible to receive at least $25K in credit from SB. No one who fails to be approved to participate in this auction is going to move the needle on final results. Not even a little.
People here thinking they are going to be getting a deal are going to be irrelevant. They just don't realize it yet, and will be shocked when bidding reaches multiples of their high bids.
When this is over, I just hope you are as quick to come back and admit you were wrong as you were to point out I was wrong when the Product Limits turned out to be an undisclosed fraction of the Mintage Limits.
Actually, you might reconsider your understanding of these auctions. The key is to be the first one to the correct increment as SB has well defined increments. If you think 10k is the right price, you want to be on it first or you're going to have to go to 11,000 because they will not accept a bid of 10,050. At 20k, the increment is 2k.
You're right. It's not ebay. So you can't snipe. You just have to be the highest bidder, no matter when. Some people will wait, of course, others will have already bid 10k or 20k (if you are right) because they want to lay claim to that increment.
The fact that there are so many 6000 and 7000 lots means there are not (yet) a lot of people wanting to claim even the 10k level much less the 20k level.
It is still early of course, and I agree that we can't conclude anything. But if they aren't over 10kb when it goes live, they aren't getting to 20k for the not special ones.
@coiner said:
Raw SILVER 230 PRIVY - SIGNED CERT closes on ebay for 5530.00. Looks like the higher prices are taking a nose dive for these.
I still say for the majority of the 230 GOLD PRIVIES - over 10k is gonna be a stretch. (This is of course excluding the #1 w/dies; and fancy numbers i.e. 230; possibly first 10 or 20 numbered)
We'll see. Nice to see you sticking to your guns, but it sure looks to me like the least expensive of these are actually going to have a difficult time staying under $20K, rather than stretching to hit $10K.
Check across all 230 auctions. They are not all over 20k - not even close. Again, im sticking to my prediction- the vast majority (other than special numbering, etc) will have a hard time closing over 10k. The 69's are probably gonna go for 7,000.
If you see over 10k-- youre gonna see a whole bunch grouped in the 10-12k range.
It will not eclipse the V75 Gold Eagle.
By the way - im sure many do not know - you must be "cleared" by the auction house for any bids over $5k. Some may not even gain clearance which will limit the pool of bidders.
I'm afraid you just don't understand how these auctions work, but you are going to learn in the next 2 weeks. This does, however, explain why the early results have not altered your view.
Serious bidders are not going to get involved until the live auction starts. They don't show their hands weeks ahead of time. This isn't eBay.
Nothing is going to go for anywhere near $10K. They will all eclipse comparable V75 ASEs. The pool of bidders is SB's worldwide customer base. Not people who are ineligible to receive at least $25K in credit from SB. No one who fails to be approved to participate in this auction is going to move the needle on final results. Not even a little.
People here thinking they are going to be getting a deal are going to be irrelevant. They just don't realize it yet, and will be shocked when bidding reaches multiples of their high bids.
When this is over, I just hope you are as quick to come back and admit you were wrong as you were to point out I was wrong when the Product Limits turned out to be an undisclosed fraction of the Mintage Limits.
Actually, you might reconsider your understanding of these auctions. The key is to be the first one to the correct increment as SB has well defined increments. If you think 10k is the right price, you want to be on it first or you're going to have to go to 11,000 because they will not accept a bid of 10,050. At 20k, the increment is 2k.
You're right. It's not ebay. So you can't snipe. You just have to be the highest bidder, no matter when. Some people will wait, of course, others will have already bid 10k or 20k (if you are right) because they want to lay claim to that increment.
The fact that there are so many 6000 and 7000 lots means there are not (yet) a lot of people wanting to claim even the 10k level much less the 20k level.
It is still early of course, and I agree that we can't conclude anything. But if they aren't over 10kb when it goes live, they aren't getting to 20k for the not special ones.
My bids are already in. I won't be going back in.
I guess we'll see. My observations have been, with respect to the increments you are talking about, is that they are always much higher than what we are seeing now.
Just keep in mind how proxy bidding works. Seeing $6-7K now does not mean that there are not a bunch of $15-25K proxy bids in. Just that there are not two of them.
For this auction, though, it really doesn't matter. There are rarely dozens upon dozens of fungible lots like there are here, so there is no reason to rush in to stake out an increment on a particular lot. And you are seeing early action on specific lots people are targeting.
The vast majority of these ARE going to hammer in a tight range. But that range isn't going to be within a stone's throw of where non-privy examples are trading.
Which means a LOT more than $6K. Regardless of where they are when it goes live.
Dealers will step in if there is insufficient retail demand. Based on what I saw the last time they did something like this, bidding will be spirited once the auction begins, and there will be no bargains. Not even Lot #172.
My bids are NOT in, because I'm not wasting my time several weeks out. I will log in on the 12th, and, if things don't get too crazy, I might take a shot at a 69, because it's something I'd like to have if the price is right.
Which I don't expect it to be, which is why I'm not getting my hopes up or bothering to submit early bids. If I do turn out to be wrong, I'd love to have a 70. But I really do expect all of them (the 70s) to go for well above $20K, and that's just more than I'd ever spend for a single modern issue. Even 1 of 1, let alone X of 230.
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
Why are you still even posting NJCoin? You should be hiding with all the incorrect calls you have made on this thread and others.
You have no clue on how hard it will be to sell 230 FIVE FIGURE coins. Especially modern commemoratives.
You are going to see the vast majority sit at the levels where they are and close there too.
Good luck to all. I'm not going tit for tat with a character that has no clue.
Remember, if you plan on bidding in excess of $5k - you will need auction clearance. It requires you to fill out a form for the required "credit" to bid higher.
@coiner said:
Its going to be hard to turn those all into 10k bids. Sorry - but I dont think so.
I'll be the first to say im wrong. But I dont think so.
I think they may get to 8 to 10k. I'm more skeptical of them going over that.
NJ has been wrong a LOT. But I tend to think most will go over $10,000. Heck, the horse high reliefs are over $7,000 and there are 12,000 of them. 230 of these? Yeah, I think they’ll go up. BUT unlike y’all two I’m not so confident in my guess. Making guarantees like NJ does just makes you look even more foolish when you’re wrong.
Why are you still even posting NJCoin? You should be hiding with all the incorrect calls you have made on this thread and others.
You have no clue on how hard it will be to sell 230 FIVE FIGURE coins. Especially modern commemoratives.
You are going to see the vast majority sit at the levels where they are and close there too.
Good luck to all. I'm not going tit for tat with a character that has no clue.
Remember, if you plan on bidding in excess of $5k - you will need auction clearance. It requires you to fill out a form for the required "credit" to bid higher.
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
Nothing inconsistent about this. Dealers can set a floor that is exceeded on every single lot, given there were only 700 last time, and 230 this time around.
As I have been saying, given the extensive marketing around marquis auctions like this, there is a lot of retail action. This is not a wholesale auction, nor are the lots highly unique.
After the one with the canceled dies, they are 229 artificially rare widgets. If The Coin Vault or Rick's Rare Collectibles have lists of private clients willing to pay inflated prices for curated rarities such as these, they can buy at retail at the auction and still make some money.
As I said in another post, I never saw the Dusk and Dawn coins marketed on TV, the web, or on eBay, so I don't think there was a flip. Flips arise when the Mint knowingly leaves money on the table. Not happening here.
Dealers make money when they have an advantage over the likes of me in acquiring, and then grading, inventory. Also not happening here.
No one knows better than dealers what the secondary market for things like this will be. So, yes, they will bid up to a level where they can make money, setting a floor.
With only 229, and extensive public interest, however, the odds are very high that public bidding will exceed that floor. Dealers don't generally make money buying at retail, which is what each of these lots will be going for. By definition, since it is a well publicized, public auction.
They are going to be competing not just with insiders, but with the public, for each and every lot. A little different than getting guaranteed allocations of rare privys at thousands below retail.
So yeah, their bids will set a floor. Doesn't mean they will be paying a red cent below full retail for any lot. If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?
Again, the disconnect between us right now seems to be that you think these will hammer far below where I think they will. Otherwise, you wouldn't have wasted your time placing bids. So we very well might be arguing about nothing, and all you'll have to say on the 12th is how insane all the bids were.
‘’Why are you still even posting NJCoin? You should be hiding with all the incorrect calls you have made on this thread and others.’’
We all make mistakes. But, I truly would just like to hear from the hundreds of other forum members WITHOUT a single member on myriad threads deciding it is his or her job to reply to everything that everyone else has to say. Is that unreasonable? In fact, “excessive posting” (defined logically) should be strictly prohibited in the rules of this Forum. Do members agree?
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@jwitten said:
NJ has been wrong a LOT. But I tend to think most will go over $10,000. Heck, the horse high reliefs are over $7,000 and there are 12,000 of them. 230 of these? Yeah, I think they’ll go up. BUT unlike y’all two I’m not so confident in my guess. Making guarantees like NJ does just makes you look even more foolish when you’re wrong.
Which is honestly fine by me. I'm putting myself out here, and am very willing to admit when I'm wrong.
It's not a crime. We'll see. Unlike the last time, there is no undisclosed Product Limit to deal with here.
230 coins, graded 69 and 70. With signed and numbered COAs.
Forget the high relief horsies. We have the V75 AGEs, the silver medal privys, and the silver medal signed and numbered COAs to guide us. People will be shocked at how high these go.
Although they shouldn't be, given the early prices realized for comparable silver medals that were not made of gold, and were not limited to 230, although the signed COAs were. With individual coin numbers on their slabs.
I've been saying it from the beginning. I think I'm going to be vindicated on this one.
If so, it will be nice if those who gleefully pointed out how wrong I was when the Mint played games with the Product Limits acknowledged it, but I won't be holding my breath.
@coiner said:
Its going to be hard to turn those all into 10k bids. Sorry - but I dont think so.
I'll be the first to say im wrong. But I dont think so.
I think they may get to 8 to 10k. I'm more skeptical of them going over that.
But you'll happily flip at those prices. Which means even you think they will be worth more.
You are just skeptical that SB will be able to get it, given they are moving 230 all at once. I think you are going to be VERY wrong. By a LOT, just like @jwitten says I am. 🤣
That said, I REALLY hope you are right. I'd absolutely LOVE to pick one up for $8-10K.
@jwitten said:
NJ has been wrong a LOT. But I tend to think most will go over $10,000. Heck, the horse high reliefs are over $7,000 and there are 12,000 of them. 230 of these? Yeah, I think they’ll go up. BUT unlike y’all two I’m not so confident in my guess. Making guarantees like NJ does just makes you look even more foolish when you’re wrong.
Which is honestly fine by me. I'm putting myself out here, and am very willing to admit when I'm wrong.
No, you haven't. You still claim the mint has misrepresented limits. The only way you can misrepresent a limit is to exceed it, not to come up short of it. You have yet to recognize that and admit your statement about this have been wrong.
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
As I have been saying, given the extensive marketing around marquis auctions like this, there is a lot of retail action. This is not a wholesale auction, nor are the lots highly unique.
After the one with the canceled dies, they are 229 artificially rare widgets. If The Coin Vault or Rick's Rare Collectibles have lists of private clients willing to pay inflated prices for curated rarities such as these, they can buy at retail at the auction and still make some money.
As I said in another post, I never saw the Dusk and Dawn coins marketed on TV, the web, or on eBay, so I don't think there was a flip. Flips arise when the Mint knowingly leaves money on the table. Not happening here.
Dealers make money when they have an advantage over the likes of me in acquiring, and then grading, inventory. Also not happening here.
No one knows better than dealers what the secondary market for things like this will be. So, yes, they will bid up to a level where they can make money, setting a floor.
With only 229, and extensive public interest, however, the odds are very high that public bidding will exceed that floor. Dealers don't generally make money buying at retail, which is what each of these lots will be going for. By definition, since it is a well publicized, public auction.
They are going to be competing not just with insiders, but with the public, for each and every lot. A little different than getting guaranteed allocations of rare privys at thousands below retail.
So yeah, their bids will set a floor. Doesn't mean they will be paying a red cent below full retail for any lot. If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?
Again, the disconnect between us right now seems to be that you think these will hammer far below where I think they will. Otherwise, you wouldn't have wasted your time placing bids. So we very well might be arguing about nothing, and all you'll have to say on the 12th is how insane all the bids were.
You make some valid points. Still, while it is a retail auction, I would make the case that only a fraction of the "end buyers" are going to be at this auction and that many will be looking to buy in the secondary market. These are the same buyers who, for some reason, buy US mint products on ebay rather than directly from the mint for less. However, I'm not sure the margin will be that attractive when dealers have to lay out what is estimated to be at least $8k-10k per coin or more.
@jwitten said:
NJ has been wrong a LOT. But I tend to think most will go over $10,000. Heck, the horse high reliefs are over $7,000 and there are 12,000 of them. 230 of these? Yeah, I think they’ll go up. BUT unlike y’all two I’m not so confident in my guess. Making guarantees like NJ does just makes you look even more foolish when you’re wrong.
Which is honestly fine by me. I'm putting myself out here, and am very willing to admit when I'm wrong.
No, you haven't. You still claim the mint has misrepresented limits. The only way you can misrepresent a limit is to exceed it, not to come up short of it. You have yet to recognize that and admit your statement about this have been wrong.
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
As I have been saying, given the extensive marketing around marquis auctions like this, there is a lot of retail action. This is not a wholesale auction, nor are the lots highly unique.
After the one with the canceled dies, they are 229 artificially rare widgets. If The Coin Vault or Rick's Rare Collectibles have lists of private clients willing to pay inflated prices for curated rarities such as these, they can buy at retail at the auction and still make some money.
As I said in another post, I never saw the Dusk and Dawn coins marketed on TV, the web, or on eBay, so I don't think there was a flip. Flips arise when the Mint knowingly leaves money on the table. Not happening here.
Dealers make money when they have an advantage over the likes of me in acquiring, and then grading, inventory. Also not happening here.
No one knows better than dealers what the secondary market for things like this will be. So, yes, they will bid up to a level where they can make money, setting a floor.
With only 229, and extensive public interest, however, the odds are very high that public bidding will exceed that floor. Dealers don't generally make money buying at retail, which is what each of these lots will be going for. By definition, since it is a well publicized, public auction.
They are going to be competing not just with insiders, but with the public, for each and every lot. A little different than getting guaranteed allocations of rare privys at thousands below retail.
So yeah, their bids will set a floor. Doesn't mean they will be paying a red cent below full retail for any lot. If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?
Again, the disconnect between us right now seems to be that you think these will hammer far below where I think they will. Otherwise, you wouldn't have wasted your time placing bids. So we very well might be arguing about nothing, and all you'll have to say on the 12th is how insane all the bids were.
You make some valid points. Still, while it is a retail auction, I would make the case that only a fraction of the "end buyers" are going to be at this auction and that many will be looking to buy in the secondary market. These are the same buyers who, for some reason, buy US mint products on ebay rather than directly from the mint for less. However, I'm not sure the margin will be that attractive when dealers have to lay out what is estimated to be at least $8k-10k per coin or more.
Yeah, that I'm not doing. Changing Product Limits after release is misleading and dishonest, rendering the Mintage Limits absolutely meaningless. I'm not changing my position on that after the fact, unlike the Mint. I'll stick to admitting that I got secondary market values wrong, based on misleading information published by the Mint regarding how many would be made available for sale.
With respect to end buyers, given that there are only going to be 230 of these, if they think they are going to find them after the fact on eBay, they are going to be sorely mistaken. They are going to be far more expensive than you think, and most retail buyers at auction will not be looking to flip. Nor will they be able to, given what they will be paying.
Dealers will be buying for clients, and retail will be buying for their collections. Only 230 lots, and worldwide exposure.
This is not going to be bots grabbing limited product at far below retail and immediately flipping on eBay. They will be bid to full retail at auction, and will be going straight to dealer clients or bidder collections. You're not going to find these after the auction on TV, eBay, or dealer websites.
The secondary market for these, at least initially, is going to be so small as to be basically imperceptible. Like anything else, over time they will pop up occasionally on major auction websites, given their value and who the initial purchasers are going to be. Not really appropriate for eBay. More like GC.
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
Nothing inconsistent about this. Dealers can set a floor that is exceeded on every single lot, given there were only 700 last time, and 230 this time around.
As I have been saying, given the extensive marketing around marquis auctions like this, there is a lot of retail action. This is not a wholesale auction, nor are the lots highly unique.
After the one with the canceled dies, they are 229 artificially rare widgets. If The Coin Vault or Rick's Rare Collectibles have lists of private clients willing to pay inflated prices for curated rarities such as these, they can buy at retail at the auction and still make some money.
As I said in another post, I never saw the Dusk and Dawn coins marketed on TV, the web, or on eBay, so I don't think there was a flip. Flips arise when the Mint knowingly leaves money on the table. Not happening here.
Dealers make money when they have an advantage over the likes of me in acquiring, and then grading, inventory. Also not happening here.
No one knows better than dealers what the secondary market for things like this will be. So, yes, they will bid up to a level where they can make money, setting a floor.
With only 229, and extensive public interest, however, the odds are very high that public bidding will exceed that floor. Dealers don't generally make money buying at retail, which is what each of these lots will be going for. By definition, since it is a well publicized, public auction.
They are going to be competing not just with insiders, but with the public, for each and every lot. A little different than getting guaranteed allocations of rare privys at thousands below retail.
So yeah, their bids will set a floor. Doesn't mean they will be paying a red cent below full retail for any lot. If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?
Again, the disconnect between us right now seems to be that you think these will hammer far below where I think they will. Otherwise, you wouldn't have wasted your time placing bids. So we very well might be arguing about nothing, and all you'll have to say on the 12th is how insane all the bids were.
Dealers also have an advantage over you when they know how to place coins. You do know that dealers buy a significant percentage of virtually all auctions, even though they DON'T get special terms. Why do you think that is?
@coiner said:
Its going to be hard to turn those all into 10k bids. Sorry - but I dont think so.
I'll be the first to say im wrong. But I dont think so.
I think they may get to 8 to 10k. I'm more skeptical of them going over that.
But you'll happily flip at those prices. Which means even you think they will be worth more.
You are just skeptical that SB will be able to get it, given they are moving 230 all at once. I think you are going to be VERY wrong. By a LOT, just like @jwitten says I am. 🤣
That said, I REALLY hope you are right. I'd absolutely LOVE to pick one up for $8-10K.
I shouldn't even respond, but I wouldn't be buying it at $10k because I think they are worth $20k or $50k, as you floated once. Buying at $10k because you think you can get $11k in a different venue is how we (dealers) approach every numismatic auction.
You also claim that the secondary market is going to be tiny. So are you saying that the market for these is 230 or fewer people? If so, who is going to bid them up at auction?
Oddly, for someone who hates lotteries, you seem to think the coin business is one giant lottery with everyone trying to "win". Dealers actually work at acquisition and sales.
I have enjoyed watching you two guys( @NJCoin@jmlanzaf ) go back and forth on the projected auction hammer prices as well as post auction flip opportunities for dealers. I would love to get one of these sub $10k at auction and therefore hoping jmlanzaf's estimates would prevail. Checking the auction this morning I see at least a handful on later numbers (say after 60) creeping up to $8k to $10k, while most remain in the $6k to $7k range. It appears maybe a few bidders put max bids on the same coin that drove up the current bid on those few coins. It's a little bold to be sitting at $10k on a nondescript # when most coins are still below $7k. While I'm still hoping these max out under $10k, I'm thinking $11k -$13k (for 70s) might be where they are heading based on current action. Still rooting for jmlanzaf's projections although I would not rule out that NJCoin estimates might prevail!
@JW77 said:
I have enjoyed watching you two guys( @NJCoin@jmlanzaf ) go back and forth on the projected auction hammer prices as well as post auction flip opportunities for dealers. I would love to get one of these sub $10k at auction and therefore hoping jmlanzaf's estimates would prevail. Checking the auction this morning I see at least a handful on later numbers (say after 60) creeping up to $8k to $10k, while most remain in the $6k to $7k range. It appears maybe a few bidders put max bids on the same coin that drove up the current bid on those few coins. It's a little bold to be sitting at $10k on a nondescript # when most coins are still below $7k. While I'm still hoping these max out under $10k, I'm thinking $11k -$13k (for 70s) might be where they are heading based on current action. Still rooting for jmlanzaf's projections although I would not rule out that NJCoin estimates might prevail!
It's a tough call. It's a bit of a unicorn so hard to estimate, especially given the amount of hype out there.
I haven't ruled out their getting closer to 20k. I don't remotely see the 50k number he threw out at one point.
The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands.
I hope I've been clear in my hedging. I don't pretend to know the future. 8 to 10k was my best estimate (guess?) But I wouldn't be shocked at $15k
I set my estimate at just (sub) 10k for the majority of 70's and definitely sub 8k for 69's.
Can they go to 11 or 12? sure. But as it was pointed out - as they go higher they end up in retail customer hands with nowhere to go. You better be willing to sit on it for a while at 12-15k.
Also remember - this is only hot till the next US Mint HOT issue shows up. Possibly with 200 or 150. Who knows.
@wondercoin said:
‘’Why are you still even posting NJCoin? You should be hiding with all the incorrect calls you have made on this thread and others.’’
We all make mistakes. But, I truly would just like to hear from the hundreds of other forum members WITHOUT a single member on myriad threads deciding it is his or her job to reply to everything that everyone else has to say. Is that unreasonable? In fact, “excessive posting” (defined logically) should be strictly prohibited in the rules of this Forum. Do members agree?
Wondercoin.
Wondercoin - as a well known dealer in the Industry and in Moderns - im sure you have an opinion on how many 5 figure moderns you can sell easily and when the market gets saturated.......there isn't 5 or 10 or even 25 of these. There are 230.
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
Nothing inconsistent about this. Dealers can set a floor that is exceeded on every single lot, given there were only 700 last time, and 230 this time around.
As I have been saying, given the extensive marketing around marquis auctions like this, there is a lot of retail action. This is not a wholesale auction, nor are the lots highly unique.
After the one with the canceled dies, they are 229 artificially rare widgets. If The Coin Vault or Rick's Rare Collectibles have lists of private clients willing to pay inflated prices for curated rarities such as these, they can buy at retail at the auction and still make some money.
As I said in another post, I never saw the Dusk and Dawn coins marketed on TV, the web, or on eBay, so I don't think there was a flip. Flips arise when the Mint knowingly leaves money on the table. Not happening here.
Dealers make money when they have an advantage over the likes of me in acquiring, and then grading, inventory. Also not happening here.
No one knows better than dealers what the secondary market for things like this will be. So, yes, they will bid up to a level where they can make money, setting a floor.
With only 229, and extensive public interest, however, the odds are very high that public bidding will exceed that floor. Dealers don't generally make money buying at retail, which is what each of these lots will be going for. By definition, since it is a well publicized, public auction.
They are going to be competing not just with insiders, but with the public, for each and every lot. A little different than getting guaranteed allocations of rare privys at thousands below retail.
So yeah, their bids will set a floor. Doesn't mean they will be paying a red cent below full retail for any lot. If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?
Again, the disconnect between us right now seems to be that you think these will hammer far below where I think they will. Otherwise, you wouldn't have wasted your time placing bids. So we very well might be arguing about nothing, and all you'll have to say on the 12th is how insane all the bids were.
Dealers also have an advantage over you when they know how to place coins. You do know that dealers buy a significant percentage of virtually all auctions, even though they DON'T get special terms. Why do you think that is?
Yes! this is what I've been saying. "If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?"
@coiner said:
Its going to be hard to turn those all into 10k bids. Sorry - but I dont think so.
I'll be the first to say im wrong. But I dont think so.
I think they may get to 8 to 10k. I'm more skeptical of them going over that.
But you'll happily flip at those prices. Which means even you think they will be worth more.
You are just skeptical that SB will be able to get it, given they are moving 230 all at once. I think you are going to be VERY wrong. By a LOT, just like @jwitten says I am. 🤣
That said, I REALLY hope you are right. I'd absolutely LOVE to pick one up for $8-10K.
I shouldn't even respond, but I wouldn't be buying it at $10k because I think they are worth $20k or $50k, as you floated once. Buying at $10k because you think you can get $11k in a different venue is how we (dealers) approach every numismatic auction.
You also claim that the secondary market is going to be tiny. So are you saying that the market for these is 230 or fewer people? If so, who is going to bid them up at auction?
Oddly, for someone who hates lotteries, you seem to think the coin business is one giant lottery with everyone trying to "win". Dealers actually work at acquisition and sales.
No. I think the secondary market is going to be tiny because, with only 230, they are going to be going into good homes at the auction, whether or not via a dealer, and that there is not going to be any inventory to support a secondary market.
@coiner said:
Its going to be hard to turn those all into 10k bids. Sorry - but I dont think so.
I'll be the first to say im wrong. But I dont think so.
I'll be watching for that. You're the one who doesn't have a clue here.
@jwitten said:
NJ has been wrong a LOT. But I tend to think most will go over $10,000. Heck, the horse high reliefs are over $7,000 and there are 12,000 of them. 230 of these? Yeah, I think they’ll go up. BUT unlike y’all two I’m not so confident in my guess. Making guarantees like NJ does just makes you look even more foolish when you’re wrong.
Which is honestly fine by me. I'm putting myself out here, and am very willing to admit when I'm wrong.
No, you haven't. You still claim the mint has misrepresented limits. The only way you can misrepresent a limit is to exceed it, not to come up short of it. You have yet to recognize that and admit your statement about this have been wrong.
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
As I have been saying, given the extensive marketing around marquis auctions like this, there is a lot of retail action. This is not a wholesale auction, nor are the lots highly unique.
After the one with the canceled dies, they are 229 artificially rare widgets. If The Coin Vault or Rick's Rare Collectibles have lists of private clients willing to pay inflated prices for curated rarities such as these, they can buy at retail at the auction and still make some money.
As I said in another post, I never saw the Dusk and Dawn coins marketed on TV, the web, or on eBay, so I don't think there was a flip. Flips arise when the Mint knowingly leaves money on the table. Not happening here.
Dealers make money when they have an advantage over the likes of me in acquiring, and then grading, inventory. Also not happening here.
No one knows better than dealers what the secondary market for things like this will be. So, yes, they will bid up to a level where they can make money, setting a floor.
With only 229, and extensive public interest, however, the odds are very high that public bidding will exceed that floor. Dealers don't generally make money buying at retail, which is what each of these lots will be going for. By definition, since it is a well publicized, public auction.
They are going to be competing not just with insiders, but with the public, for each and every lot. A little different than getting guaranteed allocations of rare privys at thousands below retail.
So yeah, their bids will set a floor. Doesn't mean they will be paying a red cent below full retail for any lot. If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?
Again, the disconnect between us right now seems to be that you think these will hammer far below where I think they will. Otherwise, you wouldn't have wasted your time placing bids. So we very well might be arguing about nothing, and all you'll have to say on the 12th is how insane all the bids were.
You make some valid points. Still, while it is a retail auction, I would make the case that only a fraction of the "end buyers" are going to be at this auction and that many will be looking to buy in the secondary market. These are the same buyers who, for some reason, buy US mint products on ebay rather than directly from the mint for less. However, I'm not sure the margin will be that attractive when dealers have to lay out what is estimated to be at least $8k-10k per coin or more.
Yeah, that I'm not doing. Changing Product Limits after release is misleading and dishonest, rendering the Mintage Limits absolutely meaningless. I'm not changing my position on that after the fact, unlike the Mint. I'll stick to admitting that I got secondary market values wrong, based on misleading information published by the Mint regarding how many would be made available for sale.
Then you need to stop saying you admit when you're wrong.
Now you change your slant to the changing product limits being misleading and dishonest which you intentionally says "changing" rather than "lowering" because lowering a limit is acceptable while raising it is not. If I bid you 40 hours of labor to do a job but came in at 35 and only charged you for 35 hours would you complain? Would I be dishonest? Was I misleading in my estimate? Or was it just a mistake/inaccuracy that resolved in your favor? Did I "violate" my quote by coming in below what I quoted as you continue to claim the mint "violated" the limit but not producing the full amount? Admit you're wrong or stop claiming that you admit you're wrong.
@coiner said:
Its going to be hard to turn those all into 10k bids. Sorry - but I dont think so.
I'll be the first to say im wrong. But I dont think so.
I'll be watching for that. You're the one who doesn't have a clue here.
OK. Glad I dont look for you're advice - I'd be broke.
@coiner said:
Its going to be hard to turn those all into 10k bids. Sorry - but I dont think so.
I'll be the first to say im wrong. But I dont think so.
I think they may get to 8 to 10k. I'm more skeptical of them going over that.
But you'll happily flip at those prices. Which means even you think they will be worth more.
You are just skeptical that SB will be able to get it, given they are moving 230 all at once. I think you are going to be VERY wrong. By a LOT, just like @jwitten says I am. 🤣
That said, I REALLY hope you are right. I'd absolutely LOVE to pick one up for $8-10K.
I shouldn't even respond, but I wouldn't be buying it at $10k because I think they are worth $20k or $50k, as you floated once. Buying at $10k because you think you can get $11k in a different venue is how we (dealers) approach every numismatic auction.
You also claim that the secondary market is going to be tiny. So are you saying that the market for these is 230 or fewer people? If so, who is going to bid them up at auction?
Oddly, for someone who hates lotteries, you seem to think the coin business is one giant lottery with everyone trying to "win". Dealers actually work at acquisition and sales.
Yes, I understand. This is exactly what I said:
"If not, who are you going to be flipping to at $20K+ who doesn't know about the auction? If you think you're going to be buying at $9K to flip at $10K, I think you are going to be very disappointed."
I didn't say you'd be buying at $10K to flip at $20K. I said you won't be able to buy at $9K to flip at $10K, and that you wouldn't want to buy at $20K because the flip wouldn't be there for you at that price.
@JW77 said:
I have enjoyed watching you two guys( @NJCoin@jmlanzaf ) go back and forth on the projected auction hammer prices as well as post auction flip opportunities for dealers. I would love to get one of these sub $10k at auction and therefore hoping jmlanzaf's estimates would prevail. Checking the auction this morning I see at least a handful on later numbers (say after 60) creeping up to $8k to $10k, while most remain in the $6k to $7k range. It appears maybe a few bidders put max bids on the same coin that drove up the current bid on those few coins. It's a little bold to be sitting at $10k on a nondescript # when most coins are still below $7k. While I'm still hoping these max out under $10k, I'm thinking $11k -$13k (for 70s) might be where they are heading based on current action. Still rooting for jmlanzaf's projections although I would not rule out that NJCoin estimates might prevail!
I'm also rooting for @jmlanzaf's projections. I just don't think they will manifest.
My advice, if you are serious about trying to get one, is to be prepared to participate live on the 12th. Nothing matters this far out, and anyone getting excited seeing relatively low prices now is just playing themselves.
Current action means nothing two weeks before the hammer drops. This isn't eBay. It's a live auction run by a major auction house.
@JW77 said:
I have enjoyed watching you two guys( @NJCoin@jmlanzaf ) go back and forth on the projected auction hammer prices as well as post auction flip opportunities for dealers. I would love to get one of these sub $10k at auction and therefore hoping jmlanzaf's estimates would prevail. Checking the auction this morning I see at least a handful on later numbers (say after 60) creeping up to $8k to $10k, while most remain in the $6k to $7k range. It appears maybe a few bidders put max bids on the same coin that drove up the current bid on those few coins. It's a little bold to be sitting at $10k on a nondescript # when most coins are still below $7k. While I'm still hoping these max out under $10k, I'm thinking $11k -$13k (for 70s) might be where they are heading based on current action. Still rooting for jmlanzaf's projections although I would not rule out that NJCoin estimates might prevail!
It's a tough call. It's a bit of a unicorn so hard to estimate, especially given the amount of hype out there.
I haven't ruled out their getting closer to 20k. I don't remotely see the 50k number he threw out at one point.
The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands.
I hope I've been clear in my hedging. I don't pretend to know the future. 8 to 10k was my best estimate (guess?) But I wouldn't be shocked at $15k
The $50K related to the first coin, and it has already far exceeded that. I wasn't even thinking about the dies at the time, and honestly had no idea they would be this valuable. At $170K two weeks out, the sky's the limit on that lot now.
$20K+ relates to the rest of them. Hopefully 69s won't quite get there, but I honestly don't see anything settling anywhere near $10K.
@jwitten said:
NJ has been wrong a LOT. But I tend to think most will go over $10,000. Heck, the horse high reliefs are over $7,000 and there are 12,000 of them. 230 of these? Yeah, I think they’ll go up. BUT unlike y’all two I’m not so confident in my guess. Making guarantees like NJ does just makes you look even more foolish when you’re wrong.
Which is honestly fine by me. I'm putting myself out here, and am very willing to admit when I'm wrong.
No, you haven't. You still claim the mint has misrepresented limits. The only way you can misrepresent a limit is to exceed it, not to come up short of it. You have yet to recognize that and admit your statement about this have been wrong.
@ProofCollection said:
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
As I have been saying, given the extensive marketing around marquis auctions like this, there is a lot of retail action. This is not a wholesale auction, nor are the lots highly unique.
After the one with the canceled dies, they are 229 artificially rare widgets. If The Coin Vault or Rick's Rare Collectibles have lists of private clients willing to pay inflated prices for curated rarities such as these, they can buy at retail at the auction and still make some money.
As I said in another post, I never saw the Dusk and Dawn coins marketed on TV, the web, or on eBay, so I don't think there was a flip. Flips arise when the Mint knowingly leaves money on the table. Not happening here.
Dealers make money when they have an advantage over the likes of me in acquiring, and then grading, inventory. Also not happening here.
No one knows better than dealers what the secondary market for things like this will be. So, yes, they will bid up to a level where they can make money, setting a floor.
With only 229, and extensive public interest, however, the odds are very high that public bidding will exceed that floor. Dealers don't generally make money buying at retail, which is what each of these lots will be going for. By definition, since it is a well publicized, public auction.
They are going to be competing not just with insiders, but with the public, for each and every lot. A little different than getting guaranteed allocations of rare privys at thousands below retail.
So yeah, their bids will set a floor. Doesn't mean they will be paying a red cent below full retail for any lot. If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?
Again, the disconnect between us right now seems to be that you think these will hammer far below where I think they will. Otherwise, you wouldn't have wasted your time placing bids. So we very well might be arguing about nothing, and all you'll have to say on the 12th is how insane all the bids were.
You make some valid points. Still, while it is a retail auction, I would make the case that only a fraction of the "end buyers" are going to be at this auction and that many will be looking to buy in the secondary market. These are the same buyers who, for some reason, buy US mint products on ebay rather than directly from the mint for less. However, I'm not sure the margin will be that attractive when dealers have to lay out what is estimated to be at least $8k-10k per coin or more.
Yeah, that I'm not doing. Changing Product Limits after release is misleading and dishonest, rendering the Mintage Limits absolutely meaningless. I'm not changing my position on that after the fact, unlike the Mint. I'll stick to admitting that I got secondary market values wrong, based on misleading information published by the Mint regarding how many would be made available for sale.
Then you need to stop saying you admit when you're wrong.
Now you change your slant to the changing product limits being misleading and dishonest which you intentionally says "changing" rather than "lowering" because lowering a limit is acceptable while raising it is not. If I bid you 40 hours of labor to do a job but came in at 35 and only charged you for 35 hours would you complain? Would I be dishonest? Was I misleading in my estimate? Or was it just a mistake/inaccuracy that resolved in your favor? Did I "violate" my quote by coming in below what I quoted as you continue to claim the mint "violated" the limit but not producing the full amount? Admit you're wrong or stop claiming that you admit you're wrong.
With all due respect, I don't "need" to do anything. I admitted what I wanted to admit.
And, no, I meant nothing nefarious by saying changing instead of lowering. Lowering a limit after the fact is exactly what I meant.
Misleading and dishonest. People planned on 50K and 17.5K being made available for sale, based on Product Limits and Mintage Limits being published at those levels. They were changed (lowered) after the fact. And my predictions were far off as a result.
Maybe I'm clueless, and maybe I'm not. We'll never know because the Mint changed the rules after the game began .
Analogizing to anything else not related to the Mint selling coins is irrelevant. Speed limits, contracting bids, etc.
Let's say the Mint announced that 230 gold privys would be auctioned, but then they have SB stop the auction after 115 lots. Would you be okay with that, as long as 231 coins were not offered?
Do you think anyone who did not bid more aggressively on the first 115, thinking there would be another 115 to go would be okay, just because they did not exceed a limit? Not honoring a limit is equally bad, for different reasons.
No "mistake" here. They just announced one thing and did another. Another thing that, in hindsight, they knew they would be doing all along, given how they seeded the silver privys in the sealed boxes of 100. It's not okay, and damages their credibility.
@JW77 said:
I have enjoyed watching you two guys( @NJCoin@jmlanzaf ) go back and forth on the projected auction hammer prices as well as post auction flip opportunities for dealers. I would love to get one of these sub $10k at auction and therefore hoping jmlanzaf's estimates would prevail. Checking the auction this morning I see at least a handful on later numbers (say after 60) creeping up to $8k to $10k, while most remain in the $6k to $7k range. It appears maybe a few bidders put max bids on the same coin that drove up the current bid on those few coins. It's a little bold to be sitting at $10k on a nondescript # when most coins are still below $7k. While I'm still hoping these max out under $10k, I'm thinking $11k -$13k (for 70s) might be where they are heading based on current action. Still rooting for jmlanzaf's projections although I would not rule out that NJCoin estimates might prevail!
It's a tough call. It's a bit of a unicorn so hard to estimate, especially given the amount of hype out there.
I haven't ruled out their getting closer to 20k. I don't remotely see the 50k number he threw out at one point.
The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands.
I hope I've been clear in my hedging. I don't pretend to know the future. 8 to 10k was my best estimate (guess?) But I wouldn't be shocked at $15k
The $50K related to the first coin, and it has already far exceeded that. I wasn't even thinking about the dies at the time, and honestly had no idea they would be this valuable. At $170K two weeks out, the sky's the limit on that lot now.
$20K+ relates to the rest of them. Hopefully 69s won't quite get there, but I honestly don't see anything settling anywhere near $10K.
@JW77 said:
I have enjoyed watching you two guys( @NJCoin@jmlanzaf ) go back and forth on the projected auction hammer prices as well as post auction flip opportunities for dealers. I would love to get one of these sub $10k at auction and therefore hoping jmlanzaf's estimates would prevail. Checking the auction this morning I see at least a handful on later numbers (say after 60) creeping up to $8k to $10k, while most remain in the $6k to $7k range. It appears maybe a few bidders put max bids on the same coin that drove up the current bid on those few coins. It's a little bold to be sitting at $10k on a nondescript # when most coins are still below $7k. While I'm still hoping these max out under $10k, I'm thinking $11k -$13k (for 70s) might be where they are heading based on current action. Still rooting for jmlanzaf's projections although I would not rule out that NJCoin estimates might prevail!
It's a tough call. It's a bit of a unicorn so hard to estimate, especially given the amount of hype out there.
I haven't ruled out their getting closer to 20k. I don't remotely see the 50k number he threw out at one point.
The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands.
I hope I've been clear in my hedging. I don't pretend to know the future. 8 to 10k was my best estimate (guess?) But I wouldn't be shocked at $15k
The $50K related to the first coin, and it has already far exceeded that. I wasn't even thinking about the dies at the time, and honestly had no idea they would be this valuable. At $170K two weeks out, the sky's the limit on that lot now.
$20K+ relates to the rest of them. Hopefully 69s won't quite get there, but I honestly don't see anything settling anywhere near $10K.
The dies are VERY valuable!
mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
@JW77 said:
I have enjoyed watching you two guys( @NJCoin@jmlanzaf ) go back and forth on the projected auction hammer prices as well as post auction flip opportunities for dealers. I would love to get one of these sub $10k at auction and therefore hoping jmlanzaf's estimates would prevail. Checking the auction this morning I see at least a handful on later numbers (say after 60) creeping up to $8k to $10k, while most remain in the $6k to $7k range. It appears maybe a few bidders put max bids on the same coin that drove up the current bid on those few coins. It's a little bold to be sitting at $10k on a nondescript # when most coins are still below $7k. While I'm still hoping these max out under $10k, I'm thinking $11k -$13k (for 70s) might be where they are heading based on current action. Still rooting for jmlanzaf's projections although I would not rule out that NJCoin estimates might prevail!
It's a tough call. It's a bit of a unicorn so hard to estimate, especially given the amount of hype out there.
I haven't ruled out their getting closer to 20k. I don't remotely see the 50k number he threw out at one point.
The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands.
I hope I've been clear in my hedging. I don't pretend to know the future. 8 to 10k was my best estimate (guess?) But I wouldn't be shocked at $15k
The $50K related to the first coin, and it has already far exceeded that. I wasn't even thinking about the dies at the time, and honestly had no idea they would be this valuable. At $170K two weeks out, the sky's the limit on that lot now.
$20K+ relates to the rest of them. Hopefully 69s won't quite get there, but I honestly don't see anything settling anywhere near $10K.
In your own words:
Yup. Nothing about $50K+ for ordinary 69s.
I still think they will be far closer to $20K than $10K, and 70s will far exceed $20K. And, while I clearly forgot about that specific post, looks like I was spot on with respect to Lot #1. How about a little credit for that? 😀
"The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands."
There's nowhere else for them to go but into retail customers hands(eventually/ultimately).
Retail customers want these coins and they're going to get them whether bidding themselves at auction(me), someone bidding for them, or secondary.
I just applied for a bid limit increase since I'm a new SBG member(6 mos ago @ CMQ), and I expect to be approved for said increases...
As a retail customer myself,(with some occasional selling/trading), I'm fully prepared to spend $30k for a Privy--and a 69 Privy at that. I'll most likely loose...
230 coins, with a worldwide collector base(with money to burn)will scoop these up in no time at the ridiculous prices that we'll soon see. I hope I'm wrong(for my greedy sake lol)...
A little perspective;
There are 10,000 Millionaires that live in Palm Beach County, FL alone. No, they're not all coin collectors, but a few are!
@Rick5280 said:
"The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands."
There's nowhere else for them to go but into retail customers hands(eventually/ultimately).
Retail customers want these coins and they're going to get them whether bidding themselves at auction(me), someone bidding for them, or secondary.
I just applied for a bid limit increase since I'm a new SBG member(6 mos ago @ CMQ), and I expect to be approved for said increases...
As a retail customer myself,(with some occasional selling/trading), I'm fully prepared to spend $30k for a Privy--and a 69 Privy at that. I'll most likely loose...
230 coins, with a worldwide collector base(with money to burn)will scoop these up in no time at the ridiculous prices that we'll soon see. I hope I'm wrong(for my greedy sake lol)...
A little perspective;
There are 10,000 Millionaires that live in Palm Beach County, FL alone. No, they're not all coin collectors, but a few are!
Agree with pretty much everything you say. Other than, there is a limit to everything. 230 being dumped all at once will have a somewhat depressing impact on pricing. Offset, of course, by the hype and marketing muscle of the Mint and SB.
I have been echoing your sentiment about pricing in general, but I do think you'll be able to get a 69 for significantly less than $30K. Congratulations and good luck!!
I was very fortunate to get one on the first day. Logged in with 3 minutes to go, pushed to purchase at nearly 11 Central and out the door with purchase by 11:03. Collector not looking to sell. Very lucky. What is pure BS on the Mint is releasing a set figure and then NOT selling said amount that same day. Many others not so fortunate. I don’t GAF why it happened; leave that to conspiracy theorists.
I will be watching for the 2025 product schedule. It appears this could part of a series leading up to the 2026 US celebration. I will be looking to kill for the next one in the series, and the next one, etc. I hope the Mint stays true to their predicted numbers so folks can get a clean shot.
@Rick5280 said:
"The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands."
There's nowhere else for them to go but into retail customers hands(eventually/ultimately).
Retail customers want these coins and they're going to get them whether bidding themselves at auction(me), someone bidding for them, or secondary.
I just applied for a bid limit increase since I'm a new SBG member(6 mos ago @ CMQ), and I expect to be approved for said increases...
As a retail customer myself,(with some occasional selling/trading), I'm fully prepared to spend $30k for a Privy--and a 69 Privy at that. I'll most likely loose...
230 coins, with a worldwide collector base(with money to burn)will scoop these up in no time at the ridiculous prices that we'll soon see. I hope I'm wrong(for my greedy sake lol)...
A little perspective;
There are 10,000 Millionaires that live in Palm Beach County, FL alone. No, they're not all coin collectors, but a few are!
There are tons of millionaires out there - the problem is they are not collectors.
You guys have to realize that moving 230 pieces at >10k each is a feat in itself. 5 figure coins and up are for very well heeled collectors/clients. These are not your run of the mill 20-something with a credit card with a high limit.
Good luck all. Just dont get burnt. An ordinary 230 gold privy in 70 achieveing above 14-15k the owner will be buried in it for years to come.
@jakeblue said:
I was very fortunate to get one on the first day. Logged in with 3 minutes to go, pushed to purchase at nearly 11 Central and out the door with purchase by 11:03. Collector not looking to sell. Very lucky. What is pure BS on the Mint is releasing a set figure and then NOT selling said amount that same day. Many others not so fortunate. I don’t GAF why it happened; leave that to conspiracy theorists.
I will be watching for the 2025 product schedule. It appears this could part of a series leading up to the 2026 US celebration. I will be looking to kill for the next one in the series, and the next one, etc. I hope the Mint stays true to their predicted numbers so folks can get a clean shot.
I totally agree with everything you are saying. Based on what they did with both the silver and then the gold, it seems pretty clear that they are going to hold back 25K from the authorized mintage on future silvers, and 7.5K on golds, to create overpriced sets once the last item in the series is released.
We will know for sure once the next item is released, but that's my prediction. Still, there is absolutely no reason they couldn't let us know what was going on, in order to be able to plan accordingly, the minute they decided to only release 50K silver medals, which they clearly did when they seeded the boxes with the privys.
Weeks before the release date. Same with the gold, where the Product Limit was clearly determined well before they let us know, after the release date.
@Rick5280 said:
"The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands."
There's nowhere else for them to go but into retail customers hands(eventually/ultimately).
Retail customers want these coins and they're going to get them whether bidding themselves at auction(me), someone bidding for them, or secondary.
I just applied for a bid limit increase since I'm a new SBG member(6 mos ago @ CMQ), and I expect to be approved for said increases...
As a retail customer myself,(with some occasional selling/trading), I'm fully prepared to spend $30k for a Privy--and a 69 Privy at that. I'll most likely loose...
230 coins, with a worldwide collector base(with money to burn)will scoop these up in no time at the ridiculous prices that we'll soon see. I hope I'm wrong(for my greedy sake lol)...
A little perspective;
There are 10,000 Millionaires that live in Palm Beach County, FL alone. No, they're not all coin collectors, but a few are!
There are tons of millionaires out there - the problem is they are not collectors.
You guys have to realize that moving 230 pieces at >10k each is a feat in itself. 5 figure coins and up are for very well heeled collectors/clients. These are not your run of the mill 20-something with a credit card with a high limit.
Good luck all. Just dont get burnt. An ordinary 230 gold privy in 70 achieveing above 14-15k the owner will be buried in it for years to come.
Sure. Buried. 🤣🤣🤣
You are going to be absolutely shocked when you see what happens. Moving 230 pieces at $10K+ at a flea market would be a big deal. Not here.
Go take a look at what any SB auction brings in. Then HA. Then GC. Every. Single. Week.
THEN, see how the Mint moves 10K items at $3600 each in 4 minutes. If they can sell them at $10K they can sell them at whatever price the market will bear.
Which will be far more than $10K. Far more, given there will only ever be 230 for worldwide distribution. There will be no shortage of bidders on the 12th.
With plenty of money burning humongous holes in their pockets. Even though the vast majority of Palm Beach millionaires will not be among them.
How many American coins do you have in your collection with a mintage or surviving population under 250? If the answer is zero, you honestly have no idea what you are talking about.
If you think people will be buried in 70s at $15K, you are simply not the target audience for this product, and will never actually get your hands on one. So what you think is going to turn out to be totally irrelevant once your max bids get blown away once things get going on the 12th.
No one, other than maybe people caught in bidding wars over special numbers, is going to be getting burnt here. There are enough lots basically indistinguishable from each other, and enough people bidding, to pretty much ensure that the prices realized are going to reflect the market.
Not a flipping opportunity, but the market, as established at public auction. Lot after lot after lot. 230 times. No one gets buried paying FMV. Anyone experiencing buyer's remorse soon after the sale should be able to get their money out of it.
As to future value, who knows? Not a guaranteed home run, based on what they will be going for on the 12th. But also no reason they shouldn't hold their value, given the nature of the product and extremely limited mintage. If it was that uninteresting, we wouldn't be devoting page after page to discussing it here.
Comments
Actually, you might reconsider your understanding of these auctions. The key is to be the first one to the correct increment as SB has well defined increments. If you think 10k is the right price, you want to be on it first or you're going to have to go to 11,000 because they will not accept a bid of 10,050. At 20k, the increment is 2k.
You're right. It's not ebay. So you can't snipe. You just have to be the highest bidder, no matter when. Some people will wait, of course, others will have already bid 10k or 20k (if you are right) because they want to lay claim to that increment.
The fact that there are so many 6000 and 7000 lots means there are not (yet) a lot of people wanting to claim even the 10k level much less the 20k level.
It is still early of course, and I agree that we can't conclude anything. But if they aren't over 10kb when it goes live, they aren't getting to 20k for the not special ones.
My bids are already in. I won't be going back in.
I guess we'll see. My observations have been, with respect to the increments you are talking about, is that they are always much higher than what we are seeing now.
Just keep in mind how proxy bidding works. Seeing $6-7K now does not mean that there are not a bunch of $15-25K proxy bids in. Just that there are not two of them.
For this auction, though, it really doesn't matter. There are rarely dozens upon dozens of fungible lots like there are here, so there is no reason to rush in to stake out an increment on a particular lot. And you are seeing early action on specific lots people are targeting.
The vast majority of these ARE going to hammer in a tight range. But that range isn't going to be within a stone's throw of where non-privy examples are trading.
Which means a LOT more than $6K. Regardless of where they are when it goes live.
Dealers will step in if there is insufficient retail demand. Based on what I saw the last time they did something like this, bidding will be spirited once the auction begins, and there will be no bargains. Not even Lot #172.
My bids are NOT in, because I'm not wasting my time several weeks out. I will log in on the 12th, and, if things don't get too crazy, I might take a shot at a 69, because it's something I'd like to have if the price is right.
Which I don't expect it to be, which is why I'm not getting my hopes up or bothering to submit early bids. If I do turn out to be wrong, I'd love to have a 70. But I really do expect all of them (the 70s) to go for well above $20K, and that's just more than I'd ever spend for a single modern issue. Even 1 of 1, let alone X of 230.
All the current 69's as of now, 45 lots...........range $5,000 to $13,000.
11 coins $7k and up.
Coin #188 $9k
Graded PR69DCAM
The one additional variable is the dilemma a bidder faces whenever there are duplicates for sale at an auction. Jump on this one now or hope to get the next one at a better price? Once they get to the last 30 or so of these, will we see bids climb as bidders fear being shut out?
It didn't happen the last time, and I don't expect it to happen this time. A tight range will be established after the first few, and people who want one will know what they have to pay for either a 69 or a 70.
Special numbers will command a premium, but, with 230, very few will be "special." Lower numbers will go higher than higher numbers, but not by crazy amounts, given how relatively high everything will be going for.
Bidders will either step up or step aside. There are no "better prices" because dealers establish a floor under them, and you, as an individual retail buyer, either hit that number, or one increment above, or just lose lot after lot. Pretty soon the pattern becomes clear.
Last time, there was no panic buying at the end from people who were looking for a bargain earlier and then suddenly became willing to pay any price as the sale drew to a close. Just look at the SB archives for the 2022 Dawn and Dusk Sale. Very consistent pricing from lot to lot, from beginning to end, after 4 outliers, representing the first and last coins in both gold and silver.
Dealers set the floor yet on the other thread you claim (incorrectly) that there is no resale opportunity. At least be consistent.
Why are you still even posting NJCoin? You should be hiding with all the incorrect calls you have made on this thread and others.
You have no clue on how hard it will be to sell 230 FIVE FIGURE coins. Especially modern commemoratives.
You are going to see the vast majority sit at the levels where they are and close there too.
Good luck to all. I'm not going tit for tat with a character that has no clue.
Remember, if you plan on bidding in excess of $5k - you will need auction clearance. It requires you to fill out a form for the required "credit" to bid higher.
Get past the first 50 - and 70's are where.....
and theres alot of 6,000 bids up from 50th thru 200th coin.
Its going to be hard to turn those all into 10k bids. Sorry - but I dont think so.
I'll be the first to say im wrong. But I dont think so.
I think they may get to 8 to 10k. I'm more skeptical of them going over that.
NJ has been wrong a LOT. But I tend to think most will go over $10,000. Heck, the horse high reliefs are over $7,000 and there are 12,000 of them. 230 of these? Yeah, I think they’ll go up. BUT unlike y’all two I’m not so confident in my guess. Making guarantees like NJ does just makes you look even more foolish when you’re wrong.
There's no BP on this auction, am I right?
.> @coiner said:
NJ isn't bidding on those coins. 🧐
Nothing inconsistent about this. Dealers can set a floor that is exceeded on every single lot, given there were only 700 last time, and 230 this time around.
As I have been saying, given the extensive marketing around marquis auctions like this, there is a lot of retail action. This is not a wholesale auction, nor are the lots highly unique.
After the one with the canceled dies, they are 229 artificially rare widgets. If The Coin Vault or Rick's Rare Collectibles have lists of private clients willing to pay inflated prices for curated rarities such as these, they can buy at retail at the auction and still make some money.
As I said in another post, I never saw the Dusk and Dawn coins marketed on TV, the web, or on eBay, so I don't think there was a flip. Flips arise when the Mint knowingly leaves money on the table. Not happening here.
Dealers make money when they have an advantage over the likes of me in acquiring, and then grading, inventory. Also not happening here.
No one knows better than dealers what the secondary market for things like this will be. So, yes, they will bid up to a level where they can make money, setting a floor.
With only 229, and extensive public interest, however, the odds are very high that public bidding will exceed that floor. Dealers don't generally make money buying at retail, which is what each of these lots will be going for. By definition, since it is a well publicized, public auction.
They are going to be competing not just with insiders, but with the public, for each and every lot. A little different than getting guaranteed allocations of rare privys at thousands below retail.
So yeah, their bids will set a floor. Doesn't mean they will be paying a red cent below full retail for any lot. If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?
Again, the disconnect between us right now seems to be that you think these will hammer far below where I think they will. Otherwise, you wouldn't have wasted your time placing bids. So we very well might be arguing about nothing, and all you'll have to say on the 12th is how insane all the bids were.
‘’Why are you still even posting NJCoin? You should be hiding with all the incorrect calls you have made on this thread and others.’’
We all make mistakes. But, I truly would just like to hear from the hundreds of other forum members WITHOUT a single member on myriad threads deciding it is his or her job to reply to everything that everyone else has to say. Is that unreasonable? In fact, “excessive posting” (defined logically) should be strictly prohibited in the rules of this Forum. Do members agree?
Wondercoin.
Which is honestly fine by me. I'm putting myself out here, and am very willing to admit when I'm wrong.
It's not a crime. We'll see. Unlike the last time, there is no undisclosed Product Limit to deal with here.
230 coins, graded 69 and 70. With signed and numbered COAs.
Forget the high relief horsies. We have the V75 AGEs, the silver medal privys, and the silver medal signed and numbered COAs to guide us. People will be shocked at how high these go.
Although they shouldn't be, given the early prices realized for comparable silver medals that were not made of gold, and were not limited to 230, although the signed COAs were. With individual coin numbers on their slabs.
I've been saying it from the beginning. I think I'm going to be vindicated on this one.
If so, it will be nice if those who gleefully pointed out how wrong I was when the Mint played games with the Product Limits acknowledged it, but I won't be holding my breath.
But you'll happily flip at those prices. Which means even you think they will be worth more.
You are just skeptical that SB will be able to get it, given they are moving 230 all at once. I think you are going to be VERY wrong. By a LOT, just like @jwitten says I am. 🤣
That said, I REALLY hope you are right. I'd absolutely LOVE to pick one up for $8-10K.
No, you haven't. You still claim the mint has misrepresented limits. The only way you can misrepresent a limit is to exceed it, not to come up short of it. You have yet to recognize that and admit your statement about this have been wrong.
You make some valid points. Still, while it is a retail auction, I would make the case that only a fraction of the "end buyers" are going to be at this auction and that many will be looking to buy in the secondary market. These are the same buyers who, for some reason, buy US mint products on ebay rather than directly from the mint for less. However, I'm not sure the margin will be that attractive when dealers have to lay out what is estimated to be at least $8k-10k per coin or more.
Yeah, that I'm not doing. Changing Product Limits after release is misleading and dishonest, rendering the Mintage Limits absolutely meaningless. I'm not changing my position on that after the fact, unlike the Mint. I'll stick to admitting that I got secondary market values wrong, based on misleading information published by the Mint regarding how many would be made available for sale.
With respect to end buyers, given that there are only going to be 230 of these, if they think they are going to find them after the fact on eBay, they are going to be sorely mistaken. They are going to be far more expensive than you think, and most retail buyers at auction will not be looking to flip. Nor will they be able to, given what they will be paying.
Dealers will be buying for clients, and retail will be buying for their collections. Only 230 lots, and worldwide exposure.
This is not going to be bots grabbing limited product at far below retail and immediately flipping on eBay. They will be bid to full retail at auction, and will be going straight to dealer clients or bidder collections. You're not going to find these after the auction on TV, eBay, or dealer websites.
The secondary market for these, at least initially, is going to be so small as to be basically imperceptible. Like anything else, over time they will pop up occasionally on major auction websites, given their value and who the initial purchasers are going to be. Not really appropriate for eBay. More like GC.
Dealers also have an advantage over you when they know how to place coins. You do know that dealers buy a significant percentage of virtually all auctions, even though they DON'T get special terms. Why do you think that is?
I shouldn't even respond, but I wouldn't be buying it at $10k because I think they are worth $20k or $50k, as you floated once. Buying at $10k because you think you can get $11k in a different venue is how we (dealers) approach every numismatic auction.
You also claim that the secondary market is going to be tiny. So are you saying that the market for these is 230 or fewer people? If so, who is going to bid them up at auction?
Oddly, for someone who hates lotteries, you seem to think the coin business is one giant lottery with everyone trying to "win". Dealers actually work at acquisition and sales.
I have enjoyed watching you two guys( @NJCoin @jmlanzaf ) go back and forth on the projected auction hammer prices as well as post auction flip opportunities for dealers. I would love to get one of these sub $10k at auction and therefore hoping jmlanzaf's estimates would prevail. Checking the auction this morning I see at least a handful on later numbers (say after 60) creeping up to $8k to $10k, while most remain in the $6k to $7k range. It appears maybe a few bidders put max bids on the same coin that drove up the current bid on those few coins. It's a little bold to be sitting at $10k on a nondescript # when most coins are still below $7k. While I'm still hoping these max out under $10k, I'm thinking $11k -$13k (for 70s) might be where they are heading based on current action. Still rooting for jmlanzaf's projections although I would not rule out that NJCoin estimates might prevail!
It's a tough call. It's a bit of a unicorn so hard to estimate, especially given the amount of hype out there.
I haven't ruled out their getting closer to 20k. I don't remotely see the 50k number he threw out at one point.
The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands.
I hope I've been clear in my hedging. I don't pretend to know the future. 8 to 10k was my best estimate (guess?) But I wouldn't be shocked at $15k
What makes a rarity artificial?
I agree 100%.
I set my estimate at just (sub) 10k for the majority of 70's and definitely sub 8k for 69's.
Can they go to 11 or 12? sure. But as it was pointed out - as they go higher they end up in retail customer hands with nowhere to go. You better be willing to sit on it for a while at 12-15k.
Also remember - this is only hot till the next US Mint HOT issue shows up. Possibly with 200 or 150. Who knows.
Wondercoin - as a well known dealer in the Industry and in Moderns - im sure you have an opinion on how many 5 figure moderns you can sell easily and when the market gets saturated.......there isn't 5 or 10 or even 25 of these. There are 230.
Yes! this is what I've been saying. "If they make money, it will be because they have people lined up willing to pay above full retail after the auction. Do you?"
No. I think the secondary market is going to be tiny because, with only 230, they are going to be going into good homes at the auction, whether or not via a dealer, and that there is not going to be any inventory to support a secondary market.
I'll be watching for that. You're the one who doesn't have a clue here.
Then you need to stop saying you admit when you're wrong.
Now you change your slant to the changing product limits being misleading and dishonest which you intentionally says "changing" rather than "lowering" because lowering a limit is acceptable while raising it is not. If I bid you 40 hours of labor to do a job but came in at 35 and only charged you for 35 hours would you complain? Would I be dishonest? Was I misleading in my estimate? Or was it just a mistake/inaccuracy that resolved in your favor? Did I "violate" my quote by coming in below what I quoted as you continue to claim the mint "violated" the limit but not producing the full amount? Admit you're wrong or stop claiming that you admit you're wrong.
OK. Glad I dont look for you're advice - I'd be broke.
Yes, I understand. This is exactly what I said:
"If not, who are you going to be flipping to at $20K+ who doesn't know about the auction? If you think you're going to be buying at $9K to flip at $10K, I think you are going to be very disappointed."
I didn't say you'd be buying at $10K to flip at $20K. I said you won't be able to buy at $9K to flip at $10K, and that you wouldn't want to buy at $20K because the flip wouldn't be there for you at that price.
NJCoin just cant give up. Let him be. He will see how wrong he is very soon.
I'm also rooting for @jmlanzaf's projections. I just don't think they will manifest.
My advice, if you are serious about trying to get one, is to be prepared to participate live on the 12th. Nothing matters this far out, and anyone getting excited seeing relatively low prices now is just playing themselves.
Current action means nothing two weeks before the hammer drops. This isn't eBay. It's a live auction run by a major auction house.
The $50K related to the first coin, and it has already far exceeded that. I wasn't even thinking about the dies at the time, and honestly had no idea they would be this valuable. At $170K two weeks out, the sky's the limit on that lot now.
$20K+ relates to the rest of them. Hopefully 69s won't quite get there, but I honestly don't see anything settling anywhere near $10K.
With all due respect, I don't "need" to do anything. I admitted what I wanted to admit.
And, no, I meant nothing nefarious by saying changing instead of lowering. Lowering a limit after the fact is exactly what I meant.
Misleading and dishonest. People planned on 50K and 17.5K being made available for sale, based on Product Limits and Mintage Limits being published at those levels. They were changed (lowered) after the fact. And my predictions were far off as a result.
Maybe I'm clueless, and maybe I'm not. We'll never know because the Mint changed the rules after the game began .
Analogizing to anything else not related to the Mint selling coins is irrelevant. Speed limits, contracting bids, etc.
Let's say the Mint announced that 230 gold privys would be auctioned, but then they have SB stop the auction after 115 lots. Would you be okay with that, as long as 231 coins were not offered?
Do you think anyone who did not bid more aggressively on the first 115, thinking there would be another 115 to go would be okay, just because they did not exceed a limit? Not honoring a limit is equally bad, for different reasons.
No "mistake" here. They just announced one thing and did another. Another thing that, in hindsight, they knew they would be doing all along, given how they seeded the silver privys in the sealed boxes of 100. It's not okay, and damages their credibility.
In your own words:
.
The dies are VERY valuable!
They will each sell for more than $10K. Is there any buyer's premium in this sale?
Yup. Nothing about $50K+ for ordinary 69s.
I still think they will be far closer to $20K than $10K, and 70s will far exceed $20K. And, while I clearly forgot about that specific post, looks like I was spot on with respect to Lot #1. How about a little credit for that? 😀
No BP. The price is the price, plus shipping.
"The higher they go, the more they are in retail customers' hands."
There's nowhere else for them to go but into retail customers hands(eventually/ultimately).
Retail customers want these coins and they're going to get them whether bidding themselves at auction(me), someone bidding for them, or secondary.
I just applied for a bid limit increase since I'm a new SBG member(6 mos ago @ CMQ), and I expect to be approved for said increases...
As a retail customer myself,(with some occasional selling/trading), I'm fully prepared to spend $30k for a Privy--and a 69 Privy at that. I'll most likely loose...
230 coins, with a worldwide collector base(with money to burn)will scoop these up in no time at the ridiculous prices that we'll soon see. I hope I'm wrong(for my greedy sake lol)...
A little perspective;
There are 10,000 Millionaires that live in Palm Beach County, FL alone. No, they're not all coin collectors, but a few are!
Agree with pretty much everything you say. Other than, there is a limit to everything. 230 being dumped all at once will have a somewhat depressing impact on pricing. Offset, of course, by the hype and marketing muscle of the Mint and SB.
I have been echoing your sentiment about pricing in general, but I do think you'll be able to get a 69 for significantly less than $30K. Congratulations and good luck!!
I was very fortunate to get one on the first day. Logged in with 3 minutes to go, pushed to purchase at nearly 11 Central and out the door with purchase by 11:03. Collector not looking to sell. Very lucky. What is pure BS on the Mint is releasing a set figure and then NOT selling said amount that same day. Many others not so fortunate. I don’t GAF why it happened; leave that to conspiracy theorists.
I will be watching for the 2025 product schedule. It appears this could part of a series leading up to the 2026 US celebration. I will be looking to kill for the next one in the series, and the next one, etc. I hope the Mint stays true to their predicted numbers so folks can get a clean shot.
There are tons of millionaires out there - the problem is they are not collectors.
You guys have to realize that moving 230 pieces at >10k each is a feat in itself. 5 figure coins and up are for very well heeled collectors/clients. These are not your run of the mill 20-something with a credit card with a high limit.
Good luck all. Just dont get burnt. An ordinary 230 gold privy in 70 achieveing above 14-15k the owner will be buried in it for years to come.
If youre prepared to spend 30k on a Privy - you'll be buried in it for years.
The only reason why #1 is so high is because of the dies - there is money to be made there (and possibly a business opportunity)
I totally agree with everything you are saying. Based on what they did with both the silver and then the gold, it seems pretty clear that they are going to hold back 25K from the authorized mintage on future silvers, and 7.5K on golds, to create overpriced sets once the last item in the series is released.
We will know for sure once the next item is released, but that's my prediction. Still, there is absolutely no reason they couldn't let us know what was going on, in order to be able to plan accordingly, the minute they decided to only release 50K silver medals, which they clearly did when they seeded the boxes with the privys.
Weeks before the release date. Same with the gold, where the Product Limit was clearly determined well before they let us know, after the release date.
Sure. Buried. 🤣🤣🤣
You are going to be absolutely shocked when you see what happens. Moving 230 pieces at $10K+ at a flea market would be a big deal. Not here.
Go take a look at what any SB auction brings in. Then HA. Then GC. Every. Single. Week.
THEN, see how the Mint moves 10K items at $3600 each in 4 minutes. If they can sell them at $10K they can sell them at whatever price the market will bear.
Which will be far more than $10K. Far more, given there will only ever be 230 for worldwide distribution. There will be no shortage of bidders on the 12th.
With plenty of money burning humongous holes in their pockets. Even though the vast majority of Palm Beach millionaires will not be among them.
How many American coins do you have in your collection with a mintage or surviving population under 250? If the answer is zero, you honestly have no idea what you are talking about.
If you think people will be buried in 70s at $15K, you are simply not the target audience for this product, and will never actually get your hands on one. So what you think is going to turn out to be totally irrelevant once your max bids get blown away once things get going on the 12th.
No one, other than maybe people caught in bidding wars over special numbers, is going to be getting burnt here. There are enough lots basically indistinguishable from each other, and enough people bidding, to pretty much ensure that the prices realized are going to reflect the market.
Not a flipping opportunity, but the market, as established at public auction. Lot after lot after lot. 230 times. No one gets buried paying FMV. Anyone experiencing buyer's remorse soon after the sale should be able to get their money out of it.
As to future value, who knows? Not a guaranteed home run, based on what they will be going for on the 12th. But also no reason they shouldn't hold their value, given the nature of the product and extremely limited mintage. If it was that uninteresting, we wouldn't be devoting page after page to discussing it here.