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50 basis points is a Pivot................SO HOW DO YOU VIEW A PAUSE ???

SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,012 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited June 11, 2023 12:47PM in Precious Metals

Am I right? This will be good for metal prices. Comments?

I see the BST sales of some nice silver for little premium being sold quickly.

Are we getting weak, tired or accumulating?

Any or all. TY

«1345678

Comments

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Too bad they are not normalizing inflation

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • RobMRobM Posts: 524 ✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Too bad they are not normalizing inflation

    Because they are going to "normalize" 3% as the new inflation target. There, all fixed.

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Could be a pivot, could be politics... Election coming up.... Cheers, RickO

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Too bad they are not normalizing inflation

    It will.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,381 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 29, 2022 7:26AM

    75 points next week.

    Then a possible pivot, or not.

    If next week is 50, huge stock upside. If pivot, huge stock upside. If pause giant stock upside.

    I am all in on high growth stock plus margin. Loaded the boat this week.

    All bad for metals.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 29, 2022 9:27AM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Too bad they are not normalizing inflation

    It will.

    A 5% increase in the federal funds rate (money that banks loan each other overnight) will not fix an under reported consumer price index inflation rate of 9% that is more likely 15 to 20%. Anyone who believes differently should work as an analyst for Jim Cramer. We are being fed government concocted data that fits the needs of politicians.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ErrorsOnCoins said:
    75 points next week.

    Then a possible pivot, or not.

    If next week is 50, huge stock upside. If pivot, huge stock upside. If pause giant stock upside.

    I am all in on high growth stock plus margin. Loaded the boat this week.

    All bad for metals.

    PM prices are are a reflection of consumer/investor faith in the central bank and the policy it prescribes. Any sign of FED backpedaling will send PMs upward.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Pivot, smivot whatever the Fed does next week I expect but one thing: Gutter down. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,012 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:
    Pivot, smivot whatever the Fed does next week I expect but one thing: Gutter down. RGDS!

    Look I'm the one fishing fer answers seeing hows I got poedunked on all this silver. Wat in Jeff davis is smivot?

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    smivot = anti pivot. Stack on! THKS!!!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,012 ✭✭✭✭✭

    LOL

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 30, 2022 3:53AM

    .> @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Too bad they are not normalizing inflation

    It will.

    A 5% increase in the federal funds rate (money that banks loan each other overnight) will not fix an under reported consumer

    It's not a 5% increase. It's an increase to 5%. 500 basis points, not 5.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    .> @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Too bad they are not normalizing inflation

    It will.

    A 5% increase in the federal funds rate (money that banks loan each other overnight) will not fix an under reported consumer

    It's not a 5% increase. It's an increase to 5%. 500 basis points, not 5.

    interest rates have risen 3.25% thus far in 2022 and will likely hit my quoted 5% before the dust settles. So, yes it is a 5% cumulative increase.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 1, 2022 8:52AM

    Cramer is crying to the fan base over Meta, Congress and Senate ohhhhhhhh the Fed is gonna pivot.

    Happy Days for three weeks then the black swan and $5.45 for regular is cheap.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Happy Days for three weeks then the black swan and $5.45 for regular is cheap.

    But, but, but.................inflation is transitory, or peaking.....................

    The Fed can either cause the bond market to implode by continuing to raise interest rates, bringing down the stock market with it - or they can watch inflation eat up the economy. At least the Fed can front run their own policy decisions and salvage their own personal finances.

    My bet is on inflation, lots of it.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,757 ✭✭✭✭✭

    They'll probably do another 75 basis points this week then hold until next spring. Seriously.

  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,425 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Soldi said:
    Cramer is crying to the fan base over Meta, Dem's losing , Republican Congress and Senate ohhhhhhhh the Fed is gonna pivot.

    Happy Days for three weeks then the black swan and $5.45 for regular is cheap.

    Currently $5.75 for home heating fuel in my area, I wouldn't be shocked at $10 buks a gallon by Christmas.

    World coins FSHO Hundreds of successful BST transactions U.S. coins FSHO
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 31, 2022 2:27AM

    In the eightys it took three years and two serious rounds of interest rate hikes to tame inflation AFTER raising interest rates to double digits. A runaway train does not stop on a dime and this train is at full speed. Those putting faith in the FED to quickly resolve inflation are living on blind faith. There is no easy, quick fix, only pain for the unemployed.

    Eurozone inflation just hit 10.7%. I bet foreign central banks regret the day they followed FED lead in setting a "print money" policy. When will they ever learn that their US counterparts do not have their best interests at heart. Ha, blind leading the blind.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 31, 2022 2:51AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    .> @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Too bad they are not normalizing inflation

    It will.

    A 5% increase in the federal funds rate (money that banks loan each other overnight) will not fix an under reported consumer

    It's not a 5% increase. It's an increase to 5%. 500 basis points, not 5.

    interest rates have risen 3.25% thus far in 2022 and will likely hit my quoted 5% before the dust settles. So, yes it is a 5% cumulative increase.

    No. The Fed Funds Rate has risen TO 3.25%--a 325 basis point increase. This is not the same as having risen 3.25%--a 3.25 basis point increase. You must understand the difference.

    Bring on higher rates. Savers want to get paid!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 31, 2022 2:50AM

    .

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    .> @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.

    Too bad they are not normalizing inflation

    It will.

    A 5% increase in the federal funds rate (money that banks loan each other overnight) will not fix an under reported consumer

    It's not a 5% increase. It's an increase to 5%. 500 basis points, not 5.

    interest rates have risen 3.25% thus far in 2022 and will likely hit my quoted 5% before the dust settles. So, yes it is a 5% cumulative increase.

    No. The Fed Funds Rate has risen TO 3.25%. This is not the same as having risen 3.25%.

    Well, your choice, in this instance, to acknowledge that the FED controlled interest rate (fed funds rate) is not the same thing as market interest rates is amusing. You pick and apply when it fits your narrative. LOL

    However, I am referring to the federal funds rate. Market rates are simply following suit.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 31, 2022 2:55AM

    Who said anything about market rates? You need to go back to bed and get some rest.

    You need to understand the info being presented to you, lest you be controlled by narrative.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Who said anything about market rates? You need to go back to bed and get some rest.

    You need to understand the info being presented to you, lest you be controlled by narrative.

    And let you control the narrative? lol

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Who said anything about market rates? You need to go back to bed and get some rest.

    You need to understand the info being presented to you, lest you be controlled by narrative.

    And let you control the narrative? lol

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 31, 2022 5:30AM

    Guess the FED wasn't listening to ole Abe. Most of us understood how runaway debt and unlimited money printing would lead us to where we now are. Dem ole chickins is comin home to roost.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Abe had spending problems of his own, so he knew all about dollar debasement and money printing.

    re: greenback dollar, Civil War

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 1, 2022 8:50AM

    Goldman Sachs lifted est to 5.0 %

    This will eventually turn into a big yawn.

    There was no cost push initially nor too much chasing too little

    Covid, and a huge distribution problem along with civil unrest riots, job quits, it's gonna wind down.

    Fed not buying mortgage back securities was a big move. 5% fed funds is thrusting back to the 1960s

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Fed Got Everybody Drunk On Cheap Money But The Party Is Over

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Soldi said:
    5% fed funds is thrusting back to the 1960s

    Fed Funds rate was over 5% in 2007.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    The Fed Got Everybody Drunk On Cheap Money But The Party Is Over

    Folk are partying big-time with their 3.5% mortgage and 4.5% savings. Pass the bubbly!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2, 2022 6:45AM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    The Fed Got Everybody Drunk On Cheap Money But The Party Is Over

    Folk are partying big-time with their 3.5% mortgage and 4.5% savings. Pass the bubbly!!

    that would be us teetotalers

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The FED cannot control inflation by controlling supply, it is beyond their reach. They can and do control inflation by controlling demand. They do this by raising rates which reduces demand/spending. The blow back, and they realize it, is a reduction in jobs due to a reduction in spending. Less shoppers requires less workers. It is an unecessary evil in reducing inflation and is their only weapon. They know this. It is one of the pressures that will bring the Pivot.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    The Fed Got Everybody Drunk On Cheap Money But The Party Is Over

    Folk are partying big-time with their 3.5% mortgage and 4.5% savings. Pass the bubbly!!

    that would be us teetotalers

    Pinkies up!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    .> @derryb said:

    The FED cannot control inflation by controlling supply, it is beyond their reach. They can and do control inflation by controlling demand. They do this by raising rates which reduces demand/spending. The blow back, and they realize it, is a reduction in jobs due to a reduction in spending. Less shoppers requires less workers. It is an unecessary evil in reducing inflation and is their only weapon. They know this. It is one of the pressures that will bring the Pivot.

    Don't let jmski see you agreeing with CNN and Warren!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Fed, Congress and White House policies are all responsible for creating this episode of inflation. Raising interest rates is ineffectual in reducing inflation unless they stop creating gazillions of free, imaginary money (which ain't gonna happen).

    Without bigger rate increases and a major cutback in spending, higher and higher rounds of inflation will be the obvious result of their policies, and that's what we're getting in a big way (after the midterm elections).

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,757 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @Soldi said:
    5% fed funds is thrusting back to the 1960s

    Fed Funds rate was over 5% in 2007.

    The last CD I bought was in 2007. If memory serves it was around 5.5%.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Black Swan Alert: Serious recession in the cards as railway unions set to strike early as Nov. 19, costing US economy $2 billion per day. When this happens look for supply chain issues to multiply in a system that still suffers from COVID lock downs. This is apparently NOT YET priced into the stock market and could easily result in a one day blow up on Wall St.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Diesel supplies are less than 20 days now. Not good, but I don't see much in the news about it.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    The Fed Got Everybody Drunk On Cheap Money But The Party Is Over

    Folk are partying big-time with their 3.5% mortgage and 4.5% savings. Pass the bubbly!!

    that would be us teetotalers

    Pinkies up!!> @VanHalen said:

    @cohodk said:

    @Soldi said:
    5% fed funds is thrusting back to the 1960s

    Fed Funds rate was over 5% in 2007.

    The last CD I bought was in 2007. If memory serves it was around 5.5%.

    Yup....you can do the same today. Savers rejoice!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Diesel supplies are less than 20 days now. Not good, but I don't see much in the news about it.

    What is a normal days supply?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Black swan alert.. This is apparently NOT YET priced into the stock market and could easily result in a one day blow up on Wall St.

    Great call!! The very next day major indices are up 5+% and many, many stocks up 10+%

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    Black swan alert.. This is apparently NOT YET priced into the stock market and could easily result in a one day blow up on Wall St.

    Great call!! The very next day major indices are up 5+% and many, many stocks up 10+%

    Since you are being selective in what I said in order to twist words again let's revisit what I actually said:

    "Black Swan Alert: Serious recession in the cards as railway unions set to strike early as Nov. 19, costing US economy $2 billion per day. When this happens look for supply chain issues to multiply in a system that still suffers from COVID lock downs. This is apparently NOT YET priced into the stock market and could easily result in a one day blow up on Wall St."

    If you don't think an actual railway worker strike that will cost the US economy $2B per day will result in a major equity price decline, then you need to focus your reading and coments to the Comic Book forum. The fact that it has yet to be priced in on Wall St, as demonstrated by today's equity gains will qualify it as a Black Swan (unexpected) event.

    In the future if you're gonna attempt to discredit what others have said at least have the decency to include what they said in full, not just chosen words to alter the meaning of what they said.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Alert, alert, alert USA to da moon! No blasck swans up here in The Commonwealth! RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What is a normal days supply?

    Tucker Carlson covered this a few days ago, but I also read a piece on ZeroHedge (I think it was there) that puts it in a slightly different light, but not too significantly. Tucker's number would be as if all the refineries in the US were to shut down - the existing supply would have only held for 25 days (as of last week).

    However, the ZeroHedge piece noted that refineries are still producing diesel which offsets some of the shrinkage in supplies. At the same time, the remaining reserves are the lowest in a number of years (I don't recall the number of years, but I think it was that these inventory levels are the lowest going back to 2008, but I could be wrong about that.

    Supplies are low and still shrinking, while winter demand for No.2 Fuel Oil (essentially the same as No. 2 Diesel) is going to be increasing, particularly in the Northeast.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,757 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Markets are pricing in interest rates LOWER than we have today by next summer.

    They might be right.

    If The Fed's new inflation target is revised to 5%.

    ;)

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 12, 2022 5:33AM

    @jmski52 said:
    What is a normal days supply?

    Tucker Carlson covered this a few days ago, but I also read a piece on ZeroHedge (I think it was there) that puts it in a slightly different light, but not too significantly. Tucker's number would be as if all the refineries in the US were to shut down - the existing supply would have only held for 25 days (as of last week).

    However, the ZeroHedge piece noted that refineries are still producing diesel which offsets some of the shrinkage in supplies. At the same time, the remaining reserves are the lowest in a number of years (I don't recall the number of years, but I think it was that these inventory levels are the lowest going back to 2008, but I could be wrong about that.

    Supplies are low and still shrinking, while winter demand for No.2 Fuel Oil (essentially the same as No. 2 Diesel) is going to be increasing, particularly in the Northeast.

    Yes. Thank you. A more accurate report of the situation.

    Distillate inventories have remained steady over the last month. While low, they have not gone lower and we will not run out in 25 days as has been reported on some tributary news sites..

    Now....let's add perspective. We have about 106 million barrels in inventory. This same week in 2019 we had about 119 million barrels and in 2018 about 122 million barrels and in 2017 about 125. So we are actually at about 87% of pre-pandemic levels. Doesn't sound so scary now, does it.

    As you've stated before, there is a lot of polluted information being distributed. Be wary of the fountain from which you drink.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,012 ✭✭✭✭✭

    50 basis points on the next go round and you got signs of a weak dollar. This will cause Gold and Silver to make major gains

    7.7 % inflation just round it to 8 % ( numbers fake at 7.7 anyways) Use the rule of 72. 72/8 = 9 imagine at this rate 9 years and the price of everything doubles of course that which is inelastic. Example your new $43,000 Hyundai will be $86, 000

    Gee and the dollar is strong and the weakening is only 50 basis points away..

    The above is my dismal science university Economics from 1994 loaded with nuance and some may agree, some may show ignorance and some may realize. "I OPINE" Thank you

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