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50 basis points is a Pivot................SO HOW DO YOU VIEW A PAUSE ???
Soldi
Posts: 2,022 ✭✭✭✭✭
Am I right? This will be good for metal prices. Comments?
I see the BST sales of some nice silver for little premium being sold quickly.
Are we getting weak, tired or accumulating?
Any or all. TY
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Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Sure is nice to see more normalized rates.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Too bad they are not normalizing inflation
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Because they are going to "normalize" 3% as the new inflation target. There, all fixed.
Could be a pivot, could be politics... Election coming up.... Cheers, RickO
It will.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
75 points next week.
Then a possible pivot, or not.
If next week is 50, huge stock upside. If pivot, huge stock upside. If pause giant stock upside.
I am all in on high growth stock plus margin. Loaded the boat this week.
All bad for metals.
A 5% increase in the federal funds rate (money that banks loan each other overnight) will not fix an under reported consumer price index inflation rate of 9% that is more likely 15 to 20%. Anyone who believes differently should work as an analyst for Jim Cramer. We are being fed government concocted data that fits the needs of politicians.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
PM prices are are a reflection of consumer/investor faith in the central bank and the policy it prescribes. Any sign of FED backpedaling will send PMs upward.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Pivot, smivot whatever the Fed does next week I expect but one thing: Gutter down. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Look I'm the one fishing fer answers seeing hows I got poedunked on all this silver. Wat in Jeff davis is smivot?
smivot = anti pivot. Stack on! THKS!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
LOL
.> @derryb said:
It's not a 5% increase. It's an increase to 5%. 500 basis points, not 5.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
interest rates have risen 3.25% thus far in 2022 and will likely hit my quoted 5% before the dust settles. So, yes it is a 5% cumulative increase.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Cramer is crying to the fan base over Meta, Congress and Senate ohhhhhhhh the Fed is gonna pivot.
Happy Days for three weeks then the black swan and $5.45 for regular is cheap.
Happy Days for three weeks then the black swan and $5.45 for regular is cheap.
But, but, but.................inflation is transitory, or peaking.....................
The Fed can either cause the bond market to implode by continuing to raise interest rates, bringing down the stock market with it - or they can watch inflation eat up the economy. At least the Fed can front run their own policy decisions and salvage their own personal finances.
My bet is on inflation, lots of it.
I knew it would happen.
They'll probably do another 75 basis points this week then hold until next spring. Seriously.
Currently $5.75 for home heating fuel in my area, I wouldn't be shocked at $10 buks a gallon by Christmas.
In the eightys it took three years and two serious rounds of interest rate hikes to tame inflation AFTER raising interest rates to double digits. A runaway train does not stop on a dime and this train is at full speed. Those putting faith in the FED to quickly resolve inflation are living on blind faith. There is no easy, quick fix, only pain for the unemployed.
Eurozone inflation just hit 10.7%. I bet foreign central banks regret the day they followed FED lead in setting a "print money" policy. When will they ever learn that their US counterparts do not have their best interests at heart. Ha, blind leading the blind.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
No. The Fed Funds Rate has risen TO 3.25%--a 325 basis point increase. This is not the same as having risen 3.25%--a 3.25 basis point increase. You must understand the difference.
Bring on higher rates. Savers want to get paid!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Well, your choice, in this instance, to acknowledge that the FED controlled interest rate (fed funds rate) is not the same thing as market interest rates is amusing. You pick and apply when it fits your narrative. LOL
However, I am referring to the federal funds rate. Market rates are simply following suit.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Who said anything about market rates? You need to go back to bed and get some rest.
You need to understand the info being presented to you, lest you be controlled by narrative.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And let you control the narrative? lol
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Guess the FED wasn't listening to ole Abe. Most of us understood how runaway debt and unlimited money printing would lead us to where we now are. Dem ole chickins is comin home to roost.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Abe had spending problems of his own, so he knew all about dollar debasement and money printing.
re: greenback dollar, Civil War
I knew it would happen.
Goldman Sachs lifted est to 5.0 %
This will eventually turn into a big yawn.
There was no cost push initially nor too much chasing too little
Covid, and a huge distribution problem along with civil unrest riots, job quits, it's gonna wind down.
Fed not buying mortgage back securities was a big move. 5% fed funds is thrusting back to the 1960s
The Fed Got Everybody Drunk On Cheap Money But The Party Is Over
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Go Liz!
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/economy/warren-powell-fed-job-losses/index.html
Successful transactions with-Boosibri,lkeigwin,TomB,Broadstruck,coinsarefun,Type2,jom,ProfLiz, UltraHighRelief,Barndog,EXOJUNKIE,ldhair,fivecents,paesan,Crusty...
Fed Funds rate was over 5% in 2007.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Folk are partying big-time with their 3.5% mortgage and 4.5% savings. Pass the bubbly!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
that would be us teetotalers
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The FED cannot control inflation by controlling supply, it is beyond their reach. They can and do control inflation by controlling demand. They do this by raising rates which reduces demand/spending. The blow back, and they realize it, is a reduction in jobs due to a reduction in spending. Less shoppers requires less workers. It is an unecessary evil in reducing inflation and is their only weapon. They know this. It is one of the pressures that will bring the Pivot.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Pinkies up!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.> @derryb said:
Don't let jmski see you agreeing with CNN and Warren!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Fed, Congress and White House policies are all responsible for creating this episode of inflation. Raising interest rates is ineffectual in reducing inflation unless they stop creating gazillions of free, imaginary money (which ain't gonna happen).
Without bigger rate increases and a major cutback in spending, higher and higher rounds of inflation will be the obvious result of their policies, and that's what we're getting in a big way (after the midterm elections).
I knew it would happen.
The last CD I bought was in 2007. If memory serves it was around 5.5%.
Black Swan Alert: Serious recession in the cards as railway unions set to strike early as Nov. 19, costing US economy $2 billion per day. When this happens look for supply chain issues to multiply in a system that still suffers from COVID lock downs. This is apparently NOT YET priced into the stock market and could easily result in a one day blow up on Wall St.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Diesel supplies are less than 20 days now. Not good, but I don't see much in the news about it.
I knew it would happen.
Pinkies up!!> @VanHalen said:
Yup....you can do the same today. Savers rejoice!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What is a normal days supply?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Great call!! The very next day major indices are up 5+% and many, many stocks up 10+%
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Since you are being selective in what I said in order to twist words again let's revisit what I actually said:
"Black Swan Alert: Serious recession in the cards as railway unions set to strike early as Nov. 19, costing US economy $2 billion per day. When this happens look for supply chain issues to multiply in a system that still suffers from COVID lock downs. This is apparently NOT YET priced into the stock market and could easily result in a one day blow up on Wall St."
If you don't think an actual railway worker strike that will cost the US economy $2B per day will result in a major equity price decline, then you need to focus your reading and coments to the Comic Book forum. The fact that it has yet to be priced in on Wall St, as demonstrated by today's equity gains will qualify it as a Black Swan (unexpected) event.
In the future if you're gonna attempt to discredit what others have said at least have the decency to include what they said in full, not just chosen words to alter the meaning of what they said.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Alert, alert, alert USA to da moon! No blasck swans up here in The Commonwealth! RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
What is a normal days supply?
Tucker Carlson covered this a few days ago, but I also read a piece on ZeroHedge (I think it was there) that puts it in a slightly different light, but not too significantly. Tucker's number would be as if all the refineries in the US were to shut down - the existing supply would have only held for 25 days (as of last week).
However, the ZeroHedge piece noted that refineries are still producing diesel which offsets some of the shrinkage in supplies. At the same time, the remaining reserves are the lowest in a number of years (I don't recall the number of years, but I think it was that these inventory levels are the lowest going back to 2008, but I could be wrong about that.
Supplies are low and still shrinking, while winter demand for No.2 Fuel Oil (essentially the same as No. 2 Diesel) is going to be increasing, particularly in the Northeast.
I knew it would happen.
Markets are pricing in interest rates LOWER than we have today by next summer.
They might be right.
If The Fed's new inflation target is revised to 5%.
Yes. Thank you. A more accurate report of the situation.
Distillate inventories have remained steady over the last month. While low, they have not gone lower and we will not run out in 25 days as has been reported on some tributary news sites..
Now....let's add perspective. We have about 106 million barrels in inventory. This same week in 2019 we had about 119 million barrels and in 2018 about 122 million barrels and in 2017 about 125. So we are actually at about 87% of pre-pandemic levels. Doesn't sound so scary now, does it.
As you've stated before, there is a lot of polluted information being distributed. Be wary of the fountain from which you drink.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
50 basis points on the next go round and you got signs of a weak dollar. This will cause Gold and Silver to make major gains
7.7 % inflation just round it to 8 % ( numbers fake at 7.7 anyways) Use the rule of 72. 72/8 = 9 imagine at this rate 9 years and the price of everything doubles of course that which is inelastic. Example your new $43,000 Hyundai will be $86, 000
Gee and the dollar is strong and the weakening is only 50 basis points away..
The above is my dismal science university Economics from 1994 loaded with nuance and some may agree, some may show ignorance and some may realize. "I OPINE" Thank you