@Higashiyama said: @psuman08 said: “He doesn't want to go down in history as another Arthur Burns or the other Fed chairs who allowed inflation to gradually rise and never really controlled it in the '60s and '70s.”
Yes. I’m surprised at how few people appreciate this. The guy is serious, he definitely cares about his legacy and he will not bow to political pressure.
like the two before him he is over his head as the corner he is painted into continues to get smaller.
@jmski52 said: If rates went to zero as derry surmised then there would be substantial capital gain. A 5yr bond with a 5% coupon could be trading near 120 if rates went to zero next year. This should probably be the Opinion Forum.
It's not opinion jmski. It's how bond prices are calculated. I thought you took college finance?
And what do you suppose would happen to stocks if rates went to zero? When stocks begin to crash due to high rates, do you think we're going to see the mother of all QE? I don't see any other way it can go.
Well, stocks were at all time highs when rates were at zero. Were they not?
So what happened to stocks with all the other QE programs?
But there's not going to be any "mother of all QE" anytime soon
This comment was in an early draft that I decided to remove. I forgot to take it out. No biggie. It doesn't change what I think about the impact on the stock market of rates going to zero. Powell tried that already, in 2019 and the market wasn't happy about a rate decrease even then.
Well, stocks were at all time highs when rates were at zero. Were they not?
So what happened to stocks with all the other QE programs?
But there's not going to be any "mother of all QE" anytime soon
Clearly, we disagree.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The problem, as I see it, was that bringing rates down to zero facilitated an enormous bail out at the taxpayer expense. Providing you live in the USA and realized that the banks took the QE money and bought treasuries and reaped free 2% on their investment. Much like SVB did !!!!! Only they didn't fare so well, when the FED increased rates.
If anyone thinks US taxpayers are not footing the bill; I really don't know what to tell you. Study inflation? Study Banking, Real Estate and Insurance perhaps. I mean: I don't know, I think and I don't know. Then, I think again and I don't know what one liner will sum it all up.
We all ramble on and on and on. Face it. It's a mess.
How does this all relate to GOLD UP $35 today ???? Silver UP $.35 today as I write.
The entire banking system is in a quagmire with the Fed, politicians, stimmies, markets, and the 2008 KICKING the can down the road behavior by all previou mentioned parties
@jmski52 said:
It doesn't change what I think about the impact on the stock market of rates going to zero. Powell tried that already, in 2019 and the market wasn't happy about a rate decrease even then.
The SP500 was up 29% in 2019. Only you would interpret that as "unhappy".
Lol. You said stocks don't like zero rates, now you agree that stocks went up.
My mistake. I wasn't clear when I was talking about 2019, but I wasn't wrong. To clarify - the stock market wasn't happy when Powell was raising rates in 2019, and that's why Powell backed off and started cutting rates back then. The market was unhappy until Powell started cutting rates.
What's going on now is similar to 2018, when the Fed was raising rates. There is a lag between the time that the Fed raises or cuts rates - a lag of about 6 to 8 months. The negative impact on the economy from the rate increases of the past year will continue to be negative for months, regardless of what the Fed does today. We haven't seen anything yet.
The economy is going to continue getting worse because of the higher interest rates, but the higher interest rates won't do jack to fight inflation. And when the Fed actually does pivot and start lowering rates, the impact of all the free money they've used to bail out the banking system by buying discounted debt that is priced to maturity instead of being priced at market - all of this is going to be highly inflationary.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Tucker Carlson covered this a few days ago, but I also read a piece on ZeroHedge (I think it was there) that puts it in a slightly different light, but not too significantly. Tucker's number would be as if all the refineries in the US were to shut down - the existing supply would have only held for 25 days (as of last week).
However, the ZeroHedge piece noted that refineries are still producing diesel which offsets some of the shrinkage in supplies. At the same time, the remaining reserves are the lowest in a number of years (I don't recall the number of years, but I think it was that these inventory levels are the lowest going back to 2008, but I could be wrong about that.
Supplies are low and still shrinking, while winter demand for No.2 Fuel Oil (essentially the same as No. 2 Diesel) is going to be increasing, particularly in the Northeast.
This "news" faded away. Yet diesel inventories are about the same today as then.
@jmski52 said:
ll of this is going to be highly inflationary.
Doubtful. There are other offsetting factors other than money supply (which has fallen off a cliff if you look at the M2 monetary aggregates here or in the EU).
Plenty of deflationary influences at work. I doubt inflation is going back to 2% anytime soon, but it's not going back to 8-10%, either.
Plenty of deflationary influences at work. I doubt inflation is going back to 2% anytime soon, but it's not going back to 8-10%, either.
There's no doubt that the whole monetary system is in trouble. Each swing in the pendulum is getting more extreme.
Hyperinflation & massive bailouts - or a bond market crash & a commercial real estate crash - resulting in a massive stock market crash & a huge loss in equity - it's now one or the other.
More inflation & more spending is always the way that they "solve" the problem. I don't think it will work this time. And we're supposed to trust these people?
Got precious metals?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Sometimes I think its a slow burn of the tax payor via inflation. Sometimes. Not so much what can the fed correct, but how much can the taxpayer stand. Inflation is the monetization of the issues problem, taxes aren't inverse to an inflationary policy that brings a stealth revenue.
@Soldi said:
but how much can the taxpayer stand. Inflation is the monetization of the issues problem, taxes aren't inverse to an inflationary policy that brings a stealth revenue.
the taxpayer will stand what he is told (by a now heavily armed IRS) to stand.
@psuman08 said:
Pause tells me the FED was giving banks a month to straighten out their balance sheets.
So, I hear.
My understanding is that the Fed is straightening them out already. How? Non-QE , QE aka purchaseing all the banks Bonds at full value aka 100% and not par of 80% and these have a much higher coupon.
"While rising interest rates give banks opportunities to increase earnings by pushing up rates charged on loans, they also could increase the cost of liabilities and decrease the value of investment securities held as assets. Even unrealized losses—paper losses—in investment portfolios can have negative effects on liquidity and present funding challenges, earnings pressures and, in some cases, issues with capital."
@derryb said:
Inflation is going to be more than short term.
Yes, but raising rates won't work , it won't work, it will not work, pivot , pivot is due by January. Yes , the Fed's not done raising , but things won't slow. The Fed's in a box with no way out and unless the economy is forced into an uncomfortable place of low growth the Fed cannot wreck the economy. 1.8 trillion in interest alone on the DEBT
@derryb said:
Inflation is going to be more than short term.
Yes, but raising rates won't work , it won't work, it will not work, pivot , pivot is due by January. Yes , the Fed's not done raising , but things won't slow. The Fed's in a box with no way out and unless the economy is forced into an uncomfortable place of low growth the Fed cannot wreck the economy. 1.8 trillion in interest alone on the DEBT
You've been preaching about a pivot for 9+ months now. Perhaps someday you will finally be correct....?, but I can guarantee you today is not the day. THKS!
@derryb said:
Inflation is going to be more than short term.
Yes, but raising rates won't work , it won't work, it will not work, pivot , pivot is due by January. Yes , the Fed's not done raising , but things won't slow. The Fed's in a box with no way out and unless the economy is forced into an uncomfortable place of low growth the Fed cannot wreck the economy. 1.8 trillion in interest alone on the DEBT
You've been preaching about a pivot for 9+ months now. Perhaps someday you will finally be correct....?, but I can guarantee you today is not the day. THKS!
No I haven't been preaching
The OP was my opinion that an increase of 50 bp was a pivot.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
The market sells moldy bread. And people buy that ____ to make penicillin. Oops.... they grow it in a petty dish. > @cohodk said:
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
The market sells moldy bread. And people buy that ____ to make penicillin. Oops.... they grow it in a petty dish. > @cohodk said:
I smell. Pray !
Fixed it for ya.
petri ?
I think he meant "pretty dish".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
The market sells moldy bread. And people buy that ____ to make penicillin. Oops.... they grow it in a petty dish. > @cohodk said:
I smell. Pray !
Fixed it for ya.
petri ?
I think he meant "pretty dish".
The Governor of South Dakota is "Pretty" hot. huh?
"The Fed has long said that they will reach a “terminal rate” where they will do nothing further and just wait for inflation to come down on its own. But this is the first time Powell has said when he expects inflation to come back to the Fed’s target level even if they stop raising rates. It pulls the rug out from under those who expect rate cuts in 2024 or believe that the Fed won’t hike rates again this year."
The verdict:
"My (Rickards) conclusion: The Fed is not done and more rate hikes are coming. September is the most likely candidate for the next rate hike as of now."
No pivot anytime soon. Just the opposite as inflation continues to destroy our purchasing power. Got insurance?
Note: Rickards has been 100% correct on his forecasts of the past 12 consecutive FED meetings where new rates are determined. Dismiss him at your own peril.
"The Fed has long said that they will reach a “terminal rate” where they will do nothing further and just wait for inflation to come down on its own. But this is the first time Powell has said when he expects inflation to come back to the Fed’s target level even if they stop raising rates. It pulls the rug out from under those who expect rate cuts in 2024 or believe that the Fed won’t hike rates again this year."
The verdict:
"My (Rickards) conclusion: The Fed is not done and more rate hikes are coming. September is the most likely candidate for the next rate hike as of now."
No pivot anytime soon. Just the opposite as inflation continues to destroy our purchasing power. Got insurance?
Note: Rickards has been 100% correct on his forecasts of the past 12 consecutive FED meetings where new rates are determined. Dismiss him (yes, you Blitzboy) at your own peril.
Do the opposite of what Rickards has suggested for the past 3 decades and you are light years ahead of where he and his bunker doomsayers are today. RGDS!
Do the opposite of what Rickards has suggested for the past 3 decades and you are light years ahead of where he and his bunker doomsayers are today. RGDS!
Yes, follow Blitzboy's advice and you too can join the gutter club.
This thread really gained traction. Considering the OP at that time in anticipation of a Fed rate raise ,felt, thought, 50 basis points was Pivoting and would be good for metals prices. THREE MONTHS AGO.
@Soldi said:
Then of course RicKard's never says anything of substance; He just rambles on and on in a past tense amounting to nothing.
He told you exactly what to expect just as he correctly did before the last 12 FED moves on interest rates. I think I'll go with what he has to say until proven wrong, unless you or BlitzBoy can convince me you are better at reading the FED. LOL
@Soldi said:
Then of course RicKard's never says anything of substance; He just rambles on and on in a past tense amounting to nothing.
He told you exactly what to expect just as he correctly did before the last 12 FED moves on interest rates. I think I'll go with what he has to say until proven wrong, unless you or BlitzBoy can convince me you are better at reading the FED. LOL
Hold it ! Slow down !! I'm gonna laminate that thought of yours and carry it around in my wallet.
He says nothing. I've watched him CLICKBAIT on youtube for over the past week. Nothing. He says' "PLEASE LISTEN TO ME" then he regurgitates the past 15 years of history amounting to no opinion, nothing to say. NOTHING
Comments
like the two before him he is over his head as the corner he is painted into continues to get smaller.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Yawn, still busy rooting for the end of the world. FRWRD!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I smell prey.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
It's not opinion jmski. It's how bond prices are calculated. I thought you took college finance?
Well, stocks were at all time highs when rates were at zero. Were they not?
So what happened to stocks with all the other QE programs?
But there's not going to be any "mother of all QE" anytime soon
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Another blatant indicator of how upside down finance has become - https://zerohedge.com/markets/biden-punishes-responsibility-new-mortgage-equity-program-begins
Punishing new home buyers with good credit scores. Rewarding poor credit scores. Things won't end well with this either.
I knew it would happen.
Seems like.... this kinda happened before..... and did not end well at all.
This should probably be the Opinion Forum.
This comment was in an early draft that I decided to remove. I forgot to take it out. No biggie. It doesn't change what I think about the impact on the stock market of rates going to zero. Powell tried that already, in 2019 and the market wasn't happy about a rate decrease even then.
Well, stocks were at all time highs when rates were at zero. Were they not?
So what happened to stocks with all the other QE programs?
But there's not going to be any "mother of all QE" anytime soon
Clearly, we disagree.
I knew it would happen.
The problem, as I see it, was that bringing rates down to zero facilitated an enormous bail out at the taxpayer expense. Providing you live in the USA and realized that the banks took the QE money and bought treasuries and reaped free 2% on their investment. Much like SVB did !!!!! Only they didn't fare so well, when the FED increased rates.
If anyone thinks US taxpayers are not footing the bill; I really don't know what to tell you. Study inflation? Study Banking, Real Estate and Insurance perhaps. I mean: I don't know, I think and I don't know. Then, I think again and I don't know what one liner will sum it all up.
We all ramble on and on and on. Face it. It's a mess.
How does this all relate to GOLD UP $35 today ???? Silver UP $.35 today as I write.
The entire banking system is in a quagmire with the Fed, politicians, stimmies, markets, and the 2008 KICKING the can down the road behavior by all previou mentioned parties
The SP500 was up 29% in 2019. Only you would interpret that as "unhappy".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The SP500 was up 29% in 2019. Only you would interpret that as "unhappy".
Only you would ignore the fact that the Fed had to start cutting rates again 2019 because the stock market couldn't handle the rate increases of 2018.
Market manipulation at its worst.
I knew it would happen.
Lol. You said stocks don't like zero rates, now you agree that stocks went up.
Where is Rod Serling?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Lol. You said stocks don't like zero rates, now you agree that stocks went up.
My mistake. I wasn't clear when I was talking about 2019, but I wasn't wrong. To clarify - the stock market wasn't happy when Powell was raising rates in 2019, and that's why Powell backed off and started cutting rates back then. The market was unhappy until Powell started cutting rates.
What's going on now is similar to 2018, when the Fed was raising rates. There is a lag between the time that the Fed raises or cuts rates - a lag of about 6 to 8 months. The negative impact on the economy from the rate increases of the past year will continue to be negative for months, regardless of what the Fed does today. We haven't seen anything yet.
The economy is going to continue getting worse because of the higher interest rates, but the higher interest rates won't do jack to fight inflation. And when the Fed actually does pivot and start lowering rates, the impact of all the free money they've used to bail out the banking system by buying discounted debt that is priced to maturity instead of being priced at market - all of this is going to be highly inflationary.
I knew it would happen.
This "news" faded away. Yet diesel inventories are about the same today as then.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W
Funny how this all occurred around election time. They try to manipulate us through fear. And it worked on some.
Same fear mongering takes place in the other asset classes.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Doubtful. There are other offsetting factors other than money supply (which has fallen off a cliff if you look at the M2 monetary aggregates here or in the EU).
Plenty of deflationary influences at work. I doubt inflation is going back to 2% anytime soon, but it's not going back to 8-10%, either.
Plenty of deflationary influences at work. I doubt inflation is going back to 2% anytime soon, but it's not going back to 8-10%, either.
There's no doubt that the whole monetary system is in trouble. Each swing in the pendulum is getting more extreme.
Hyperinflation & massive bailouts - or a bond market crash & a commercial real estate crash - resulting in a massive stock market crash & a huge loss in equity - it's now one or the other.
More inflation & more spending is always the way that they "solve" the problem. I don't think it will work this time. And we're supposed to trust these people?
Got precious metals?
I knew it would happen.
Pause tells me FED doesn't know which direction to go. they will raise rates.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Sometimes I think its a slow burn of the tax payor via inflation. Sometimes. Not so much what can the fed correct, but how much can the taxpayer stand. Inflation is the monetization of the issues problem, taxes aren't inverse to an inflationary policy that brings a stealth revenue.
the taxpayer will stand what he is told (by a now heavily armed IRS) to stand.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Pause tells me the FED was giving banks a month to straighten out their balance sheets.
pause is not a pivot
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
So, I hear.
My understanding is that the Fed is straightening them out already. How? Non-QE , QE aka purchaseing all the banks Bonds at full value aka 100% and not par of 80% and these have a much higher coupon.
Fed Funds rate has nothing to do with bank balance sheets.
Rising Interest Rates Complicate Banks’ Investment Portfolios
"While rising interest rates give banks opportunities to increase earnings by pushing up rates charged on loans, they also could increase the cost of liabilities and decrease the value of investment securities held as assets. Even unrealized losses—paper losses—in investment portfolios can have negative effects on liquidity and present funding challenges, earnings pressures and, in some cases, issues with capital."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Pause tells me FED is once again scratching its head.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I don't believe in pauses.
I knew it would happen.
Did you listen to Jerome today?
Pivot is on the way.
What's going to cause thr Fed to start cutting? Interest rates, solvency crisis. 1.8 trillion in debt cost Interest alone.
Complicated Fed's in a box for sure.
Sorry but higher inflation is on the way.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
In the short term, but will still be here 6 months out and then pivot, pivot , pivot.
Inflation is going to be more than short term.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Only thing thats inflating right now is my savings accounts, 401K and IRA's. The gutter pile not so much. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Yes, but raising rates won't work , it won't work, it will not work, pivot , pivot is due by January. Yes , the Fed's not done raising , but things won't slow. The Fed's in a box with no way out and unless the economy is forced into an uncomfortable place of low growth the Fed cannot wreck the economy. 1.8 trillion in interest alone on the DEBT
Higher rates are the only tool the FED has to battle inflation. They cannot control supply, only demand.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
You've been preaching about a pivot for 9+ months now. Perhaps someday you will finally be correct....?, but I can guarantee you today is not the day. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
No I haven't been preaching
The OP was my opinion that an increase of 50 bp was a pivot.
No, you're wrong, not true, non e Vero, Apologize
It's either demand pull or cost push. So with the Covid pandemic kicking it off,, ....which is it?
What would Say, say?
Supply can create demand.
The market sells moldy bread. And people buy that ____ to make penicillin. Oops.... they grow it in a petty dish. > @cohodk said:
Fixed it for ya.
petri ?
I think he meant "pretty dish".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
The Governor of South Dakota is "Pretty" hot. huh?
Only a Black Swan could take rates lower before next summer.
And we're spending trillions of dollars a year to prevent a Black Swan.
And we're spending trillions of dollars a year to prevent a Black Swan.
Does anyone really know what it's being spent on?
I knew it would happen.
it's being spent on destroying my purchasing power
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
the stupid thing now is that it's spent on over 1 trillion $$ of interest alone.
I suspect the military, I have no proof
The evidence:
Powell - “We don’t see ourselves getting inflation all the way back to 2% until 2025.”
"The Fed has long said that they will reach a “terminal rate” where they will do nothing further and just wait for inflation to come down on its own. But this is the first time Powell has said when he expects inflation to come back to the Fed’s target level even if they stop raising rates. It pulls the rug out from under those who expect rate cuts in 2024 or believe that the Fed won’t hike rates again this year."
The verdict:
"My (Rickards) conclusion: The Fed is not done and more rate hikes are coming. September is the most likely candidate for the next rate hike as of now."
No pivot anytime soon. Just the opposite as inflation continues to destroy our purchasing power. Got insurance?
Note: Rickards has been 100% correct on his forecasts of the past 12 consecutive FED meetings where new rates are determined. Dismiss him at your own peril.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Do the opposite of what Rickards has suggested for the past 3 decades and you are light years ahead of where he and his bunker doomsayers are today. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Yes, follow Blitzboy's advice and you too can join the gutter club.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Then of course RicKard's never says anything of substance; He just rambles on and on in a past tense amounting to nothing.
This thread really gained traction. Considering the OP at that time in anticipation of a Fed rate raise ,felt, thought, 50 basis points was Pivoting and would be good for metals prices. THREE MONTHS AGO.
He told you exactly what to expect just as he correctly did before the last 12 FED moves on interest rates. I think I'll go with what he has to say until proven wrong, unless you or BlitzBoy can convince me you are better at reading the FED. LOL
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Hold it ! Slow down !! I'm gonna laminate that thought of yours and carry it around in my wallet.
He says nothing. I've watched him CLICKBAIT on youtube for over the past week. Nothing. He says' "PLEASE LISTEN TO ME" then he regurgitates the past 15 years of history amounting to no opinion, nothing to say. NOTHING