@stevek said:
BTW - the comment I made in the Patriots thread about the Patriots coach not going for 2 to win the game. The Bucs coach made the exact same mistake. But this mistake was even more egregious against a much better football team than the Titans.
The Chiefs won the coin toss in overtime, quickly marched down the field, scored a touchdown, and it was over.
If I were the Bucs I would have gone for 2 as well.
I'm not crucifying Bowles for not going for the 2 but I think it would have been the best call to try and win it right there while the D was gassed
Pasted:
The odds of making a two-point conversion in the NFL are between 40% and 55%. This is significantly lower than the success rate for one-point conversions, which is between 90% and 95%. However, the two-point conversion has a higher expected value because of its higher value.
On average, the number of points a team can expect from a two-point conversion or an extra point attempt is roughly the same. However, the decision to go for two or kick the extra point depends on several factors, including the time left in the game and the team's defense. For example, if there are fewer than seven minutes left in the game, it's usually better to go for two than to kick the extra point.
Also they never should have taken a timeout with 30 seconds on the clock, it didn't matter but KC had 3 Time outs so that could have bit them as well.
To the odds of going for 2, I'm sure those percentages are based on a perfect environment, it doesn't take into consideration that the D was probably tired and a little shell shocked that Tampa cruised down the field like they did and scored.
Either way it was a great game and KC gutted it out
@stevek said:
BTW - the comment I made in the Patriots thread about the Patriots coach not going for 2 to win the game. The Bucs coach made the exact same mistake. But this mistake was even more egregious against a much better football team than the Titans.
The Chiefs won the coin toss in overtime, quickly marched down the field, scored a touchdown, and it was over.
If I were the Bucs I would have gone for 2 as well.
I'm not crucifying Bowles for not going for the 2 but I think it would have been the best call to try and win it right there while the D was gassed
Pasted:
The odds of making a two-point conversion in the NFL are between 40% and 55%. This is significantly lower than the success rate for one-point conversions, which is between 90% and 95%. However, the two-point conversion has a higher expected value because of its higher value.
On average, the number of points a team can expect from a two-point conversion or an extra point attempt is roughly the same. However, the decision to go for two or kick the extra point depends on several factors, including the time left in the game and the team's defense. For example, if there are fewer than seven minutes left in the game, it's usually better to go for two than to kick the extra point.
For some reason, I had it in my head that the odds of making a 2 point conversion were 1 in 3. These posted odds from AI Google, say it's much more favorable than that. And common sense dictates that it's even more favorable when the offense has momentum right at the end of a game when the defense is gassed.
So before this becomes a dissertation, it seems quite clear to me that it's simply better all around, if it's a game deciding situation, to go for the 2, and just get the game over with. Especially because players are dog tired at that point and more prone to possible injury.
And if your team is a long shot before the game, as were the Patriots and Bucs, it seems even more clear that you must go for the 2. Because going for the 2 as mentioned, it basically becomes an even proposition. While tying the game with a field goal, it then becomes like a brand new game in itself. So that long shot team before the game, just turned itself back to being a long shot.
One more thing before I get a "dissertation warning" from anyone. The old saying from coaches is, "If you listen to the fans, you'll soon be sitting with them." Well I think in this particular case, if you don't listen to the fans, you'll soon be sitting with them.
@stevek said:
BTW - the comment I made in the Patriots thread about the Patriots coach not going for 2 to win the game. The Bucs coach made the exact same mistake. But this mistake was even more egregious against a much better football team than the Titans.
The Chiefs won the coin toss in overtime, quickly marched down the field, scored a touchdown, and it was over.
If I were the Bucs I would have gone for 2 as well.
I'm not crucifying Bowles for not going for the 2 but I think it would have been the best call to try and win it right there while the D was gassed
Pasted:
The odds of making a two-point conversion in the NFL are between 40% and 55%. This is significantly lower than the success rate for one-point conversions, which is between 90% and 95%. However, the two-point conversion has a higher expected value because of its higher value.
On average, the number of points a team can expect from a two-point conversion or an extra point attempt is roughly the same. However, the decision to go for two or kick the extra point depends on several factors, including the time left in the game and the team's defense. For example, if there are fewer than seven minutes left in the game, it's usually better to go for two than to kick the extra point.
For some reason, I had it in my head that the odds of making a 2 point conversion were 1 in 3. These posted odds from AI Google, say it's much more favorable than that. And common sense dictates that it's even more favorable when the offense has momentum right at the end of a game when the defense is gassed.
So before this becomes a dissertation, it seems quite clear to me that it's simply better all around, if it's a game deciding situation, to go for the 2, and just get the game over with. Especially because players are dog tired at that point and more prone to possible injury.
And if your team is a long shot before the game, as were the Patriots and Bucs, it seems even more clear that you must go for the 2. Because going for the 2 as mentioned, it basically becomes an even proposition. While tying the game with a field goal, it then becomes like a brand new game in itself. So that long shot team before the game, just turned itself back to being a long shot.
One more thing before I get a "dissertation warning" from anyone. The old saying from coaches is, "If you listen to the fans, you'll soon be sitting with them." Well I think in this particular case, if you don't listen to the fans, you'll soon be sitting with them.
Steve I'm your biggest fan when it comes to your dissertations lol
btw my book had lines for every state............when i woke up this morning, they had yanked all of them with the exception of the battleground states
"no more free money"
i'm keeping an eye on said battleground state lines and the victor is coming into focus
This is how close I came to hitting an 11 team parlay….
It was a $20 bet to win $877. wish it would have hit but I did get my other two bets, a 6 and 7 team parlay. I will post the tickets tonight.
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
Am somewhat surprised the Mod has allowed mentioning somewhat political subjects.
Eh, everyone here has been acting like an adult and not mentioned anything about either candidate except betting odds so it fits the thread in my opinion
Galaxy!
I hope you win that bet but my KU boy Christian Braun goes for 20-25 points. I see he’s been starting this year and doing very well.
Good luck! 👍
@galaxy27 said:
these are hella fun, but I forget about them
every time i have tried one of these in the past i've thought to myself, "how can this possibly lose?" 😅
oh but it can. and it has.
a 7-team, 21-point teaser for your viewing pleasure
look at how many freaking points Purdue is getting
a part of me wants Ohio St to win 63-3
-4724.13
This reminds me of a MLB bet I did this past summer, I took 20 guys that had never hit a HR and bet the under . 5 HR.
About 5 of these guys didn't register an AB so the odds changed on the payout but one young fella out of the remaining 15 that got an AB came in to pinch hit and hit his first career HR so I lost my bet.
Years ago, I didn't have a big bet on this particular NBA game. I'm watching it, the opponent had just scored, but I'm still up by 4 points. Just a few seconds left in the game. I can't lose, right?
So the idiot throws the inbounds pass out of bounds. The opposition then throws their inbounds pass, the opposition player grabs it and quickly shoots and hits a 3. I'm still not worried. I'm still up by a point. There's like two seconds left and the inbounds pass occurs by my team. Well the idiot throws the ball in like a 100 year old lady, an opposition player quickly steals it, throws ii up unbalanced to the hoop, and swoosh, it never touches the rim for 2. I lose the bet.
I'm not kidding, I remember my first thought sitting there, was did an eight mile wide asteroid just strike the earth, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, and I'm actually here dead in some sort of dream state before my brain finally expires, because what just happened in that game can't be humanly possible.
i've been banging this drum since the inception of this thread, but betting on the NBA is not for the faint of heart. enormous leads mean nothing because scoring occurs in rapid succession
the other night the Spurs were playing the Clippers and SA was up by 26 after the 1st. AND they were getting 3.5. so if you played the line and dropped on the Spurs, you were up 29.5 points with 3 quarters remaining
the Clippers won by 9
i lost my mind thinking that game was in the bag last night
@galaxy27 said:
i've been banging this drum since the inception of this thread, but betting on the NBA is not for the faint of heart. enormous leads mean nothing because scoring occurs in rapid succession
the other night the Spurs were playing the Clippers and SA was up by 26 after the 1st. AND they were getting 3.5. so if you played the line and dropped on the Spurs, you were up 29.5 points with 3 quarters remaining
the Clippers won by 9
i lost my mind thinking that game was in the bag last night
Funny when I saw your bet I didn't even think about the OKC game it was the Warriors I thought was risky and they won outright.
My little betting safari went like this Tuesday night I took the first game over and covered the points on both sides and took the favorite minus the points for the second game and lost all three legs.
I was going to do the same bet last night but decided not too and it would have won for more money.
I gotta say the Duke game that I lost by a 1/2 point and cost me a net profit of $540 still isn't sitting well with me, the fury of it all is real. 🤬🤬🤬🤬
How Do Backup NFL Quarterbacks Fare Straight Up, Against the Spread in First Start?
"Backup quarterbacks in their first start as an underdog are 20-49 (29%) straight up but 37-30-2 (55%) against the spread since 2021. Last year, they went 9-16 SU and 12-12-1 ATS. We’ve already had one backup start a game this year, as Justin Fields replaced Russell Wilson after the latter suffered a calf injury in practice. Fields led the Steelers to an outright win as a four-point 'dog in an 18-10 win over the Falcons."
37-30-2 ATS
Certainly not as strong a play as I thought, but nevertheless overall a winning play.
My thought is if a particular team in this predicament doesn't have a strong rushing game, they could be in deep trouble. So in my opinion, if the Cowboys can't establish the run early in the game, and the kid has to throw a lot, then the Cowboys could be in deep trouble, even if their defense stepped it up.
@galaxy27 said:
21-pt teaser about to go up in flames 🔥
Florida looks like a high school team
Texas can win this by 80 if they want to
I put in 2 bets a 10 dollar play and a 20 dollar play thinking Florida would actually play football today
Silly me
i can't put all of the blame on Florida
i knew their starting QB was probably going to be out and they'd be starting a walk-on, but i had no idea that they had about 10 other guys out and were starting true freshman everywhere
that's on me and i deserve to eat 300$ because i could've shoved the line to Texas minus a half point
I won like $700-$800 on table games and a college parlay so I figured no need to risk much on the nfl so I just have $40 bet on a 10 team parlay tomorrow so if it hits great but still a nice Saturday if not🥳
i'm convinced the only reason i won my parlay is because darin laughed at it
MORE LOLZ D, LOTS MORE!!!
Sorry about that it wasn’t on purpose. 😩
I’ve accidentally done that before, when I scroll down my finger sometimes hits the lol or like button.
One time I was just reading posts on the coin forum and it was a good thread about military veterans. I was scrolling through and didn’t even know I did an accidental lol until I got a message from a poster.i apologized and told him there was no way I would do that on purpose. He’s a good guy and understood.
So i apologize to you too galaxy I’m glad you won and i changed an accidental lol to a purposeful like.
Keep it up! My nfl parlay was blown up the first game when Carolina beat the giants.
i knew it was purely unintentional, but i was only half-joking when i said laugh at my bets more often......I'll take good juju WHEREVER and HOWEVER i can get it. 😅
sounds like you had a profitable weekend.....well done bro! 🍻
Galaxy are you in on any of the nfl late games? I could lol your bets if so.😆
BTW the Chiefs got really lucky blocking a field goal at the end. kc should have had a bigger lead because Mahomes missed a wide open Kelce in the end zone and settled for a field goal and the 16–14 lead.
That Broncos defense is tough!
Galaxy are you in on any of the nfl late games? I could lol your bets if so.😆
see my 21-pt teaser up above? the Jets are on the verge of blowing it up
give it an LOL.......PLEASE
Just lol’d it!
I see it’s 31-6 at the end of the third quarter. The good thing is maybe they’ll take out your man Kyler soon…. hopefully the jets add enough points during garbage time.
Comments
Also they never should have taken a timeout with 30 seconds on the clock, it didn't matter but KC had 3 Time outs so that could have bit them as well.
To the odds of going for 2, I'm sure those percentages are based on a perfect environment, it doesn't take into consideration that the D was probably tired and a little shell shocked that Tampa cruised down the field like they did and scored.
Either way it was a great game and KC gutted it out
For some reason, I had it in my head that the odds of making a 2 point conversion were 1 in 3. These posted odds from AI Google, say it's much more favorable than that. And common sense dictates that it's even more favorable when the offense has momentum right at the end of a game when the defense is gassed.
So before this becomes a dissertation, it seems quite clear to me that it's simply better all around, if it's a game deciding situation, to go for the 2, and just get the game over with. Especially because players are dog tired at that point and more prone to possible injury.
And if your team is a long shot before the game, as were the Patriots and Bucs, it seems even more clear that you must go for the 2. Because going for the 2 as mentioned, it basically becomes an even proposition. While tying the game with a field goal, it then becomes like a brand new game in itself. So that long shot team before the game, just turned itself back to being a long shot.
One more thing before I get a "dissertation warning" from anyone. The old saying from coaches is, "If you listen to the fans, you'll soon be sitting with them." Well I think in this particular case, if you don't listen to the fans, you'll soon be sitting with them.
Steve I'm your biggest fan when it comes to your dissertations lol
when the Bucs scored i just knew Bowles was going for 2 and i just knew 2 parlays were about to die
when the kicker trotted out there, "thank you" was audible in my house
maybe Todd Bowles saw something i didn't, but I witnessed Baker Mayfield blowing down the field, making throws the entire way to the house.
then you take the ball out of his hands from two yards out for the win? when you're a 9.5-pt underdog with two of your best players out?
again, thank you
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
The worm is turning fella 💥💥💥💥
btw my book had lines for every state............when i woke up this morning, they had yanked all of them with the exception of the battleground states
"no more free money"
i'm keeping an eye on said battleground state lines and the victor is coming into focus
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
The chances of losing that Texas bet are below zero. I've been following this type of chit for a number of years. That literally is free money.
I'll just say one brief thing. It's looking very good right now. We shall know for sure later tonight.
the result from your state is arguably the most crucial
current battleground state lines:
Arizona: Trump -400
Georgia: Trump -230
Michigan: Harris -200
Nevada: Trump -115
North Carolina: Trump -220
Pennsylvania: Trump -155
Wisconsin: Harris -135
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Arizona: Trump -400 lock
Georgia: Trump -230 lock
Michigan: Harris -200 good flyer
Nevada: Trump -115 close to lock
North Carolina: Trump -220 lock
Pennsylvania: Trump -155 good sign
Wisconsin: Harris -135 good flyer
My app isn't offering any of this action
i'll update those lines in 4 hours or so
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
This is how close I came to hitting an 11 team parlay….
It was a $20 bet to win $877. wish it would have hit but I did get my other two bets, a 6 and 7 team parlay. I will post the tickets tonight.
@Darin
well freaking done
i hearby declare that anyone who hits 5+ leg lay should get lay'd immediately
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Tough beat and it had to be the lowly Panthers.
Although the Saints this season are stinking up the joint as well.
they're about to pull these, so here's the latest and greatest so you can compare and contrast
Arizona: Trump -450
Georgia: Trump -230
Michigan: Harris -210
Nevada: Trump -125
North Carolina: Trump -270
Pennsylvania: Trump -155
Wisconsin: Harris -135
and they added Iowa since the last time I checked: Trump -700
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Am somewhat surprised the Mod has allowed mentioning somewhat political subjects.
Eh, everyone here has been acting like an adult and not mentioned anything about either candidate except betting odds so it fits the thread in my opinion
My winners….. they’re basically the same except adding Arizona to the 7 teamer added +500 to the odds.
Thank goodness our Republic rests safe tonight.
Now all we need to worry about is our aggravating sports teams. 😉
these are hella fun, but I forget about them
every time i have tried one of these in the past i've thought to myself, "how can this possibly lose?" 😅
oh but it can. and it has.
a 7-team, 21-point teaser for your viewing pleasure
look at how many freaking points Purdue is getting
a part of me wants Ohio St to win 63-3
-4724.13
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
🏀
-4724.13
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Galaxy!
I hope you win that bet but my KU boy Christian Braun goes for 20-25 points. I see he’s been starting this year and doing very well.
Good luck! 👍
This reminds me of a MLB bet I did this past summer, I took 20 guys that had never hit a HR and bet the under . 5 HR.
About 5 of these guys didn't register an AB so the odds changed on the payout but one young fella out of the remaining 15 that got an AB came in to pinch hit and hit his first career HR so I lost my bet.
It was actually funny
Hope you hit that bet brother
i committed a cardinal sin in my head last night
Warriors won outright and the undefeated Thunder were up 16 in the 3rd against a 4-3 Nuggets team that was down two starters
it was around that time when i started contemplating what i wanted to do with my newfound 120$
final score: Denver 124, OKC 122
i needed a reminder that no game is over until it's actually over -- especially in the NBA -- and i got it
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I think the NBA games offer more angst/agita during the game than any other sport.
I see that parlay. Good grief. 😖
Years ago, I didn't have a big bet on this particular NBA game. I'm watching it, the opponent had just scored, but I'm still up by 4 points. Just a few seconds left in the game. I can't lose, right?
So the idiot throws the inbounds pass out of bounds. The opposition then throws their inbounds pass, the opposition player grabs it and quickly shoots and hits a 3. I'm still not worried. I'm still up by a point. There's like two seconds left and the inbounds pass occurs by my team. Well the idiot throws the ball in like a 100 year old lady, an opposition player quickly steals it, throws ii up unbalanced to the hoop, and swoosh, it never touches the rim for 2. I lose the bet.
I'm not kidding, I remember my first thought sitting there, was did an eight mile wide asteroid just strike the earth, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, and I'm actually here dead in some sort of dream state before my brain finally expires, because what just happened in that game can't be humanly possible.
i've been banging this drum since the inception of this thread, but betting on the NBA is not for the faint of heart. enormous leads mean nothing because scoring occurs in rapid succession
the other night the Spurs were playing the Clippers and SA was up by 26 after the 1st. AND they were getting 3.5. so if you played the line and dropped on the Spurs, you were up 29.5 points with 3 quarters remaining
the Clippers won by 9
i lost my mind thinking that game was in the bag last night
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Funny when I saw your bet I didn't even think about the OKC game it was the Warriors I thought was risky and they won outright.
My little betting safari went like this Tuesday night I took the first game over and covered the points on both sides and took the favorite minus the points for the second game and lost all three legs.
I was going to do the same bet last night but decided not too and it would have won for more money.
When your bad your really bad
I gotta say the Duke game that I lost by a 1/2 point and cost me a net profit of $540 still isn't sitting well with me, the fury of it all is real. 🤬🤬🤬🤬
I'm switching this line of chat from the Cowboys thread to this thread, where I think it plays better.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/how-do-backup-nfl-quarterbacks-fare-straight-up-against-the-spread-in-first-start
How Do Backup NFL Quarterbacks Fare Straight Up, Against the Spread in First Start?
"Backup quarterbacks in their first start as an underdog are 20-49 (29%) straight up but 37-30-2 (55%) against the spread since 2021. Last year, they went 9-16 SU and 12-12-1 ATS. We’ve already had one backup start a game this year, as Justin Fields replaced Russell Wilson after the latter suffered a calf injury in practice. Fields led the Steelers to an outright win as a four-point 'dog in an 18-10 win over the Falcons."
37-30-2 ATS
Certainly not as strong a play as I thought, but nevertheless overall a winning play.
My thought is if a particular team in this predicament doesn't have a strong rushing game, they could be in deep trouble. So in my opinion, if the Cowboys can't establish the run early in the game, and the kid has to throw a lot, then the Cowboys could be in deep trouble, even if their defense stepped it up.
21-pt teaser about to go up in flames 🔥
Florida looks like a high school team
Texas can win this by 80 if they want to
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I put in 2 bets a 10 dollar play and a 20 dollar play thinking Florida would actually play football today
Silly me
Put in a 50 dollar play for the later games
After last week I'm done going heavy on these games, it's lunacy.
New budget is $100 for Saturday games, I'm done trying to figure this crap out in a real way
i can't put all of the blame on Florida
i knew their starting QB was probably going to be out and they'd be starting a walk-on, but i had no idea that they had about 10 other guys out and were starting true freshman everywhere
that's on me and i deserve to eat 300$ because i could've shoved the line to Texas minus a half point
maybe a miracle will happen in Austin
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Sportico.com reports Draft Kings recently took a 250 million dollar hit with the NFL favorites winning.
was very lucky with that game
i'm still an idiot
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
-4799.13
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Glad you survived that Texas mashing @galaxy27
Good
-4699.14
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Let’s just say I could win a 7 team parlay
-4597.56
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I won like $700-$800 on table games and a college parlay so I figured no need to risk much on the nfl so I just have $40 bet on a 10 team parlay tomorrow so if it hits great but still a nice Saturday if not🥳
good job perk! 🤙🤙🤙
i'm convinced the only reason i won my parlay is because darin laughed at it
MORE LOLZ D, LOTS MORE!!!
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Sorry about that it wasn’t on purpose. 😩
I’ve accidentally done that before, when I scroll down my finger sometimes hits the lol or like button.
One time I was just reading posts on the coin forum and it was a good thread about military veterans. I was scrolling through and didn’t even know I did an accidental lol until I got a message from a poster.i apologized and told him there was no way I would do that on purpose. He’s a good guy and understood.
So i apologize to you too galaxy I’m glad you won and i changed an accidental lol to a purposeful like.
Keep it up! My nfl parlay was blown up the first game when Carolina beat the giants.
@Darin
i'm totally jacking with you bud.
i knew it was purely unintentional, but i was only half-joking when i said laugh at my bets more often......I'll take good juju WHEREVER and HOWEVER i can get it. 😅
sounds like you had a profitable weekend.....well done bro! 🍻
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Galaxy are you in on any of the nfl late games? I could lol your bets if so.😆
BTW the Chiefs got really lucky blocking a field goal at the end. kc should have had a bigger lead because Mahomes missed a wide open Kelce in the end zone and settled for a field goal and the 16–14 lead.
That Broncos defense is tough!
see my 21-pt teaser up above? the Jets are on the verge of blowing it up
give it an LOL.......PLEASE
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Just lol’d it!
I see it’s 31-6 at the end of the third quarter. The good thing is maybe they’ll take out your man Kyler soon…. hopefully the jets add enough points during garbage time.
Okay the jets stink… I’m removing my lol. Rodgers should just retire now.