Someone briefly explain the status of the First Spouse Golds

JapanJohn · December 29, 2007 6:58PM

As I recall early on you couldn't get 'em and if you could they were double or higher priced. A quick glance on ebay shows I can get them for $475 in uncirculated each with Madison being a little more expensive at the mint.

What gives? Are the proofs the hot item here or did they crash and burn?

John

TomB · December 30, 2007 12:53AM

You can still BIN the first spouse coins for about $450 in MS from some sellers while the PF coins go for a bit more. At this time it appears that there are more sellers than there are buyers for these issues. The slow sales of the Madison issues support the idea that at least some of these issues will trade at near melt levels for some time. Fortunately for those who own these, gold has gone up significantly and has created a floor for the pieces that is near the issue price for the first three spouses.

OPA · December 30, 2007 1:14AM

<< As I recall early on you couldn't get 'em and if you could they were double or higher priced. A quick glance on ebay shows I can get them for $475 in uncirculated each with Madison being a little more expensive at the mint.

What gives? Are the proofs the hot item here or did they crash and burn?

John >>

still an ample supply available on eBay
Link

BTW...PCGS is "cranking out more 70's in MS for the Madison than 69's
Latest pop report.
MS..total graded: 76......MS70..53
PR..total graded: 68......PR70..30

PCGS pop report has got to be at least 1 or 2 weeks behind in their stats. I've seen PCGS graded 10th Anniv Plats on ebay, but no pop. report for them as of today.

ricko · December 30, 2007 1:27AM

Very small collector base.... and not likely to grow in the foreseeable future. Cheers, RickO

OPA · December 30, 2007 1:38AM

<< Very small collector base.... and not likely to grow in the foreseeable future. Cheers, RickO >>

Unfortunately, I have to agree with the above statement. Only the PCGS graded ones are selling above issue price. Some Raw & NGC graded 69's, have sold below melt.

ttown · December 30, 2007 1:41AM

I usually buy the UNC's in gold from the mint since they are always a much lower mintage and that's where the winners are. On the First Spouse issues I brought the proof Jefferson since I do like proof coins more because they are the exact same mintages of 20k each. I think many of us would want the proofs with all things being equal.

FLBuffaloHunter · December 30, 2007 1:57AM

The way I see it, with a maximum mintage of 20,000 for a 24k gold Proof commemorative it is a no lose situation given that even at 20,000 they are the lowest minatge ever for a gold Proof commemorative issue. If there are issuse's that don't sell out and the minatge is even lower, then all the better since that would make a key to the series.

ozzyfan269 · December 30, 2007 2:02AM

Of the four TJ FS coins i aquired I got a perfect 4 out of 4 in MS70/PR70 all with First Strike. I am hoping that these will go up in value soon so I can dump them on eBay. In any case, I did better to get them graded than to sell the unopened boxes.

Worst case scenario is that I just hold on to them, and that is no big deal.

ttown · December 30, 2007 2:27AM

I think the future rarities will be in the UNC's, they're the ones likely not to sell out and if history continues they should be half the mintage of the proofs soon but hey it's gold and right now I don't think you can lose if you hold even with the big mark up but it won't be the coin itself driving the price.

FLBuffaloHunter · December 30, 2007 2:38AM

<< I think the future rarities will be in the UNC's, they're the ones likely not to sell out and if history continues they should be half the mintage of the proofs soon but hey it's gold and right now I don't think you can lose if you hold even with the big mark up but it won't be the coin itself driving the price. >>

20,000 is not rare for a Uncirculated gold commemorative. Many have a mintage lower than that, which is why I feel the Proofs will do better overall given the historically low mintage figures on the First Spouse Proofs. Of course there will be some sleepers and keys with the Unc but as a series, I believe the Proofs will be in more demand and do better overall (as they are now).

Overdate · December 30, 2007 2:41AM

For collectors that don't like or can't afford to purchase the entire series, I think the proof Liberty (non-spouse) subset will be very popular.

ttown · December 30, 2007 2:43AM

<< 

<< I think the future rarities will be in the UNC's, they're the ones likely not to sell out and if history continues they should be half the mintage of the proofs soon but hey it's gold and right now I don't think you can lose if you hold even with the big mark up but it won't be the coin itself driving the price. >>

20,000 is not rare for a Uncirculated gold commemorative. Many have a mintage lower than that, which is why I feel the Proofs will do better overall given the historically low mintage figures on the First Spouse Proofs. Of course there will be some sleepers and keys with the Unc but as a series, I believe the Proofs will be in more demand and do better overall. >>

I not refering to what's happening now since they've both sold out until the last issue. I talking about when the craze dies down (happening now). I can assure you if the proofs don't sell out the UNC's could be less than half that mintage or less. And 20k isn't rare in any hobby on coins that will never be circulated and are in holder that will protect them forever. Although if you can get over 20k collectors they will do well but I think that just a pipe dream. Most of us will buy the ones we like do to the cost of collecting the whole series. This set reminds me of the Americans Arts gold coins of the 80's and the majority sell for bullion.

FLBuffaloHunter · December 30, 2007 2:51AM

<< 

<< 

<< I think the future rarities will be in the UNC's, they're the ones likely not to sell out and if history continues they should be half the mintage of the proofs soon but hey it's gold and right now I don't think you can lose if you hold even with the big mark up but it won't be the coin itself driving the price. >>

20,000 is not rare for a Uncirculated gold commemorative. Many have a mintage lower than that, which is why I feel the Proofs will do better overall given the historically low mintage figures on the First Spouse Proofs. Of course there will be some sleepers and keys with the Unc but as a series, I believe the Proofs will be in more demand and do better overall. >>

I not refering to what's happening now since they've both sold out until the last issue. I talking about when the craze dies down (happening now). I can assure you if the proofs don't sell out the UNC's could be less than half that mintage or less. And 20k isn't rare in any hobby on coins that will never be circulated and are in holder that will protect them forever. Although if you can get over 20k collectors they will do well but I think that just a pipe dream. Most of us will buy the ones we like do to the cost of collecting the whole series. This set reminds me of the Americans Arts gold coins of the 80's and the majority sell for bullion. >>

The American Arts series you refer to were gold medals, not coins. Alot of people don't collect gold medals but alot of people do collect gold coins. I feel there will be more collectors of the Proof series of First Spouse gold coins given collectors prefer Proof issues over the Uncirculated option. Having the historically lowest mintage ever of 20,000 for the Proofs is all the better IMO.

aficionado · December 30, 2007 3:07AM

It looks like the Dolley is moving pretty slow.

The MAIN question, as always, is will the Mint stop the sales on Dolley. If so, you have a key with about 12K Proofs and 8K Unc.

Second, at the beginning of the year, the 'Mint' decides how many coins will be minted of each spouse. 2007 was 40K. They will probably keep that for 2008, but it could be lowered.

Third, they have a 20K each limit on the Proof and Unc. That worked with the 2 day sell outs, but now that there is no sell out, will they let this float with just 40K between the two.

But it all starts with when will they stop selling the Dolley.

53BKid · December 30, 2007 3:25AM

For some perspective, I've been collecting gold commemoratives since the 1970s. Even with mintages of 5,000 - 17,500 on the classic commemoratives, there have been long periods (years upon years) during which time the bid/offer liquidity of gold commmemoratives (both classic and modern) has been very poor. In other words they may list for relatively high prices, but the bids are substantially lower.

Some dealers will pay melt or slightly lower for many of the modern gold issues that have high mintages. One dealer about 40 minutes away from me buys them cheap and actually sending them into Kitco just to move them quickly. There are tons that are sitting on dealers' shelves for years. I expect the same fate for many of the first spouses.

With mintages of 20,000 is comparatively lower than all the proof gold commemorative issues with Jackie Robinson's the lowest at 24,072. However, there are a lot of collectors of gold commemoratives who have ZERO interest in collecting this series. I've been calling them FirstHags™ since the series was announced. While down the road I may buy some of the more obscure ones with lower mintages to put away for potential profits, I am only planning on adding the 'Liberties' to my collection. After the '08s are released, I expect mintages to come nowhere near those of this year's sellouts, as interest in collecting the entire series meets wanes. Even as someone who's had a lifelong interest in the presidents, with a few exceptions, I can't even guess the names of many of the first spouses after Dolley Madison, let alone afford to spend about $4,000 a year so I can have a proof and an unc of each! At that pace I think I'd much rather spend the money on my all time fantasy coin, a high relief Saint, which I doubt I'll ever be able to afford.

Today between eBay and the internet, the bid/offer liquidity is much more transparent. Obviously, the number of flippers is very substantial and supply is far outpacing demand so prices have been coming down. In my opinion, the mint took advantage of the situation pricing the proof Dolley at $529.95. When its pricing was announced, it was a full
$70 more expensive than the proof half ounce gold eagle they were still offering. So Dolley's sales to date are Proof: 12,095 and Unc 8,199 , a full month after issue.

nurmaler · December 30, 2007 3:34AM

I'm doing pretty well on my sales with LOTS of interest in graded as well as raw.
Many collectors are gobbling up my 470 for a 69 first strike. While others are making very high offers for 70s.

TomB · December 30, 2007 5:55AM

The problem that I have with the idea that a proof mintage of 20,000 will mean the coins will be key is that there won't be a only one or two issues that have 20,000 mintage; rather, there will be approximately forty issues that are minted at the 20,000 level. This consistent mintage level severely reduces the chance that any of these pieces will be considered a key.

CoinHusker · December 30, 2007 5:59AM

I still don't understand why the Mint has not released figures for these. Even if they did break down 50/50 between the proof and the unc, release the figures!

JapanJohn · December 30, 2007 6:05AM

Weren't the first couple of these selling high on ebay after release. Was I wrong to think some were going for $800 plus. I never followed it that closely. I may jump in and buy a set of uncirculated coins and build a set. Worst case scenario. A lot of gold.

John

TomB · December 30, 2007 6:34AM

My interpretation of what happened is that the US Mint, intentionally or inadvertantly, made many folks believe there was a sellout of the entire series after they cancelled the subscription program for the coins, which in turn made many folks attempt to buy the limit of five coins per issue and per finish during the initial sale. No doubt there were also other folks interested in the pieces since they are a new series and the initial surge of buying caused a very quick sellout. The US Mint did not, though, have enough coins struck so only a few folks received their pieces in a short period of time, which made them appear to be very scarce on the open market and might have fooled folks into thinking that they would be a tough issue to obtain and that a high percentage were in long-term collections. This fueled the rapid and steep increase in prices. However, it appears that significant numbers of those coins that were sold on the first day of sales were actually sold to folks hoping to sell them off rather quickly, which led to a glut of coins once the US Mint finally shipped all outstanding orders and finally led to a collapse of the market. It has now been about six months since the first sales of these coins and they are hovering a bit above melt, which happens to also be near their issue price.

nurmaler · December 30, 2007 7:07AM

<< My interpretation of what happened is that the US Mint, intentionally or inadvertantly, made many folks believe there was a sellout of the entire series after they cancelled the subscription program for the coins, which in turn made many folks attempt to buy the limit of five coins per issue and per finish during the initial sale. No doubt there were also other folks interested in the pieces since they are a new series and the initial surge of buying caused a very quick sellout. The US Mint did not, though, have enough coins struck so only a few folks received their pieces in a short period of time, which made them appear to be very scarce on the open market and might have fooled folks into thinking that they would be a tough issue to obtain and that a high percentage were in long-term collections. This fueled the rapid and steep increase in prices. However, it appears that significant numbers of those coins that were sold on the first day of sales were actually sold to folks hoping to sell them off rather quickly, which led to a glut of coins once the US Mint finally shipped all outstanding orders and finally led to a collapse of the market. It has now been about six months since the first sales of these coins and they are hovering a bit above melt, which happens to also be near their issue price. >>

They're selling for more than a mint above melt. The Unc is selling for close to melt but the proofs are selling for about 525.

bigbadchad777 · December 30, 2007 7:13AM

Don't compare these to commemoratives.
These are not commemoratives, merely bullion.

TomB · December 30, 2007 7:47AM

Nurmaler, I just checked the closed auctions on ebay and, if you remove PF70 coins, I noticed a raw MW proof sell for $478, a MW PCGS PF69 DCAM sell for $431, an AA PCGS PF69 DCAM sell for $416, a raw MW proof sell for $455, a raw AA proof sell for $451, a TJ NGC PF69 UCAM sell for $500, a raw AA proof sell for $485, a raw MW proof sell for $503, an AA NGC PF69 UCAM sell for $441 and a raw MW sell for $493. I decided to stop once I came to ten completed auctions for these proof pieces. The average was $465 for proof examples.

nurmaler · December 30, 2007 8:14AM

<< Nurmaler, I just checked the closed auctions on ebay and, if you remove PF70 coins, I noticed a raw MW proof sell for $478, a MW PCGS PF69 DCAM sell for $431, an AA PCGS PF69 DCAM sell for $416, a raw MW proof sell for $455, a raw AA proof sell for $451, a TJ NGC PF69 UCAM sell for $500, a raw AA proof sell for $485, a raw MW proof sell for $503, an AA NGC PF69 UCAM sell for $441 and a raw MW sell for $493. I decided to stop once I came to ten completed auctions for these proof pieces. The average was $465 for proof examples. >>

I never judge prices by completed AUCTION listings. Do me a favor, and check the completed Buy-It-Now/Best Offer listings.
I know I've been selling raw coins for 470 and 530 for Unc and Proof respectively, and anything with a 70 gets a premium. (not to mention my Abigail 70 First Strike

)

~n

Sunnywood · December 30, 2007 8:18AM

"First Spouse" means that they were married within 30 days of the actual inauguration. It does not guarantee, however, that the lady in question was the actual first spouse. There may have been prior spouses, but PCGS will still slab the woman as "First Spouse" if she was released from maidenhood within the correct period.

Sunnywood

FatMan · December 30, 2007 8:29AM

IMO what we have now are the common dates in the series. Give it about five or six years and the interest in the series will be so low that the mint will be selling only a few thousand each. At that time a buy and hold strategy may work. Expect these current common date issues to trade at or below melt in the coming years.

TomB · December 30, 2007 8:30AM

I didn't differentiate between auction and BIN listings. I simply used closed sales, which may include both. It is hard to argue with real data that states you can buy these for approximately $465 in proof as long as one does not require a PF70 DCAM/UCAM label.

53BKid · December 30, 2007 7:03PM

<< "First Spouse" means that they were married within 30 days of the actual inauguration. It does not guarantee, however, that the lady in question was the actual first spouse. There may have been prior spouses, but PCGS will still slab the woman as "First Spouse" if she was released from maidenhood within the correct period.

Sunnywood >>

That is by far the funniest comment on the whole FIRST SPOUSE series I've read to date...I have tears I'm laughing so hard!

53BKid · December 30, 2007 7:10PM

<< IMO what we have now are the common dates in the series. Give it about five or six years and the interest in the series will be so low that the mint will be selling only a few thousand each. At that time a buy and hold strategy may work. Expect these current common date issues to trade at or below melt in the coming years. >>

FATMAN: My money's with you on this one. You'll still have an active group of flippers once we get beyond '08s Liberties, but interest in the series will wane considerably over time, as many find they can't afford to build it and unload them. My guess is that dealers will be able to take slabbed Hags off their hands at melt.

Bear · December 30, 2007 7:13PM

I still think that the Liberty sub set will

do well. Especially in MS & PR 70 PCGS.

Someone briefly explain the status of the First Spouse Golds

Comments

Leave a Comment