This thread is an example of the short sightedness of the human animal.
I have noticed people on this, and every other coin collecting chat board, group, club, coin show and coin shop I have ever attended think that their 'market' IS 'The Market'. There is no one market of anything. The coin market consists of many small markets and what is important to one can have absolutely no import on another market. The market for collectables is by in large a market that depends totally on participants that have extra funds and narrow focus, but we all know this, right? We just forget it when things are other than we wish. The price of your DMPL Morgans has no effect on the price of my circulated Lincoln Memorial cents. Two different markets. I know we all know this we just seem to think that 'our' market is 'The Market'.
I guess it will always be My way is the way any other way is wrong. If your market is getting too hot to play in you can cry about it, profit in it, wait it out, or move to another part of the market. Or I guess you can wave your arms in the air running around screaming "The sky is falling!"
Your three reasons for coins to become less valuable are
1. Obsolescence
2. High Quality fakes
3. Collector base disappearing due to age
China is one of the most cashless societies on earth, they are known for producing the vast majority of the counterfeit coins, and in the next twenty or so years at least 40% of the aging population will die.
So one might say that China is dealing with A MUCH higher supply and demand problem for collector coins over the next twenty years than any other single country.
Why do you say China is different? What are the factors that protect China's collector base that could possibly undo those kinds of supply/demand issue?
China is different because there are a billion people of exponentially rising economic relevance who are rapidly reacquiring their cultural artifacts. I understand ‘the magnitude of factors’ is qualitative and super hard to understand for ‘certain people’, but this isn’t a novel observation Im inventing here.
There’s a reason the TPGs are opening offices in Asia and not in Hungary or Lesoto (or, following your logic, ‘why are they opening offices in Hong Kong and not Hyderabad???’)
So yes, the American market condition in numismatics is a rapidly aging demographic and it’s not going to be replaced by anyone on the horizon. The Chinese market condition is one of a considerably younger demographic, increasing economic potential and many more of them in a frenzy to acquire their own cultural artifacts and they love numismatics. That factor isn’t in play here. Comprehending that manny places in Asia ‘are different than America’ is by no means a novel observation, either. I think it was Jeremy Grantham who coined the phrase “extrapolate nothing from Japan” in the 80s.
As it turns out, market conditions aren’t always global.
Where should I send the bill for this consultation?
The rich aren’t getting poorer and although I would never advise rare coins as investments, they are “assets” and they are extremely fun (to a certain type of person). Human beings collecting stuff is not going to die out anytime soon no matter how crazy the world gets.
I hear all this talk of the collector base aging out while with my own eyes I consistently see lots of fresh (young) faces on both sides of the table at shows in my area (and nationally), and get friendly ribbing for not being on coin instagram all the time even from guys older than me.
Honestly I’m 48 and I’ve felt “old” in the coin scene a few times in the last year when making deals (guys wanting to use Zelle instead of me writing checks, or even using cash!.. which his fine I guess). One dealer who is a bit younger than me recently busted my chops for still having a leather wallet 😆.
Fakes have been a part of the hobby for over a millennium and will always be a part of the landscape. The better the counterfeiters get, the better the detection technology and collector best practices seems to get…..and round and round we go.
I certainly respect anyone’s concerns, especially when it’s for the general health of the hobby. I’ve been around long enough to see some big spikes and crashes across the board in multiple areas of life (as most here have i suspect).
I don’t think the stamp hobby comparison has ever been that great. At the top of a multitude of reasons why is that it was never tied into or supported by a precious metals market.
While most of the coins we show off here don’t have much ebb and flow with the greater gold and silver market…….there sure were a lot more people at FUN when silver was hovering around $100. If stamps had a similar connection there’d be underlying opportunity (or perception of) to hold or collect them. Theres none of that.
The scale of high quality fakes has never, ever been anywhere near this bad.
Nowhere close. It’s bad-bad, particularly with key dates. In 1997, a high quality fake key date involved a fraud-minded precision die maker or a rogue jeweler. Now, it’s an internet connection and $5 on alibaba.
Not the same.
Bullion and numismatics can be related, and bullion is often a gateway to numismatics, but they’re ultimately different things. This is reflected in the receipts at basically all coin shops weighting towards bullion as they do with do. Many ‘coin shops’ have numismatics as a token gesture, the rest is all bullion.
My first coin show was March 1987, so I’ve been doing it that long.
I agree I’m also seeing ‘more young people at coin shows’ now than say the low point of the late 90s or early 00s (back when I was the youngest member of my local CC by several decades), the COVID collectibles boom has been great for coin collecting for sure, but I’m also at every FUN show and the terminal decline of the demography is still pretty apparent, albeit with a few green chutes of younger-person activity that didn’t exist 30 years ago. Hopefully that trend continues.
I'm going to assume you're heavily invested in the Chinese game. I'm not interested in it currently, nor am I heavily invested in US coinage: I think it's overhyped, on average, and there's probably going to be a correction for the average-lower end collectibles as the world starts to recognize and invest in other historic coinage.
I didn't say China isn't a strong market, nor that it won't continue to be. Just that China will be affected by your stated factors, just as much as anyone, or even more.
What you're saying, however, is that China is immune to your three things that will influence collector demand for the rest of the world. I'm suggesting that you temper your expectations, the likelihood of China experiencing the same factors for impeded growth is at least as high, if not moreso.
China striving to reacquire its history will affect the top percentage of coins and collectables, but that's not what you're talking about, we're talking average collector base. Cut any population by 40% over twenty years and any collector item is overwhelmingly likely to slack in demand, with few exceptions. If an item is collected by only .1% of a population, and you cut that population down, logic might dictate that 40% of the collectors would be affected also. Even if it's not true to the full extent, it would be reasonable to assume that SOME of those would be among your collector base. Even a change of 10% would be very noticeable in auction prices.
I personally don't see historically important coins ever being deemed worthless. People have been collecting coins for a very long time, and while coins are becoming obsolete, there are lots of long obsolete items that continue to have large demand. Ancient Arrowheads come to mind.
I don't really think postage stamps compare either. They were invented in 1840. That's not even 200 years. Coins have been around since 650BC, there's just way more history there, and way more "story" that goes along with them, nevermind the precious metal angle.
Julius Caesar coins aren't particularly rare, but they have, and will continue to have, huge demand. An Eid Mar Aureus will ALWAYS be one of the most desirable coins. Even China would agree. And you can quote me on that.
I'm going to assume you're heavily invested in the Chinese game. I'm not interested in it currently, nor am I heavily invested in US coinage: I think it's overhyped, on average, and there's probably going to be a correction for the average-lower end collectibles as the world starts to recognize and invest in other historic coinage.
I didn't say China isn't a strong market, nor that it won't continue to be. Just that China will be affected by your stated factors, just as much as anyone, or even more.
What you're saying, however, is that China is immune to your three things that will influence collector demand for the rest of the world. I'm suggesting that you temper your expectations, the likelihood of China experiencing the same factors for impeded growth is at least as high, if not moreso.
China striving to reacquire its history will affect the top percentage of coins and collectables, but that's not what you're talking about, we're talking average collector base. Cut any population by 40% over twenty years and any collector item is overwhelmingly likely to slack in demand, with few exceptions. If an item is collected by only .1% of a population, and you cut that population down, logic might dictate that 40% of the collectors would be affected also. Even if it's not true to the full extent, it would be reasonable to assume that SOME of those would be among your collector base. Even a change of 10% would be very noticeable in auction prices.
I personally don't see historically important coins ever being deemed worthless. People have been collecting coins for a very long time, and while coins are becoming obsolete, there are lots of long obsolete items that continue to have large demand. Ancient Arrowheads come to mind.
I don't really think postage stamps compare either. They were invented in 1840. That's not even 200 years. Coins have been around since 650BC, there's just way more history there, and way more "story" that goes along with them, nevermind the precious metal angle.
Julius Caesar coins aren't particularly rare, but they have, and will continue to have, huge demand. An Eid Mar Aureus will ALWAYS be one of the most desirable coins. Even China would agree. And you can quote me on that.
I think we ‘mostly’ agree on all the same points (including significant agreement on some key points, ie: the bottom end of the collectibles market, US numismatics, etc) but we’re speaking about two different timelines.
Right now, factors hitting US numismatics arent in play in China. This is both demographic and economic. We are a fully mature, now declining superpower and we already had our period of peak interest in our history, our artifacts, etc. They are now on the economic trajectory timeline about where we were at around the immediate postwar period; very much on the upswing. This influences their hobby markets.
I do definitely have some investment in Chinese numismatics, but not nearly enough for someone who ‘saw it coming’ 25+ years ago but didn’t act decisively enough. Key factors re: fakes influencing our Numismatic market have very ironically already hit them BEFORE they hit us. Chinese numismatics have been faked at scale since at least the 1960s. Not so for US numismatics, which really only in the past 7-10 years have been smashed like theirs already has. If anything, Chinese cash coinage was one of the first numismatic niches to show what a state of terminal decline/existential threat looks like as a result of so many fakes requiring extreme expertise to discern from authentic, if they’re even discernible at all.
One can fairly argue ‘what is hitting us now will eventually hit them’ in numismatics and indeed it already has, but at present their market is just so much more vibrant than ours (which despite recent changes is still very stale), I’m quite confident thats outside my lifetime.
@MintState70 said:
The scale of high quality fakes has never, ever been anywhere near this bad.
Nowhere close. It’s bad-bad, particularly with key dates. In 1997, a high quality fake key date involved a fraud-minded precision die maker or a rogue jeweler. Now, it’s an internet connection and $5 on alibaba.
Not the same.
.
I disagree.
The "Alibaba" fakes are very low quality.
In the 1960s, copies of US gold coins were coming out of the Middle east, in quantity.
These were better quality than what is being faked today.
Although the subject of fakes is interesting, the subject in hand IMHO is more related to the high price issues. I do not see an expanding collector base, but rather the opposite. Many have said that, well, the top end is the top end and they do not see the relevance of the "base" of collectors. Also obviously my opinion but how popular will even "top end" coins be if there is no base? I think the excitement (or whatever it is) is diminished if the pond is significantly smaller with time.
As a reasonably related corollary, I always find it interesting when the issue of contracting and aging collector base is raised, that people cite a number of younger dealers and YNs....Well, I have been going to the Baltimore show amongst others for over 30 years (no comment!) and note there are FAR fewer younger collectors than there was previously, even 5 or 10 years ago.
And frankly quite crazy to say that the younger collectors are using the internet for transactions. While likely true that there is more of this, I do not see substantial evidence of this. Will leave that rant for now....
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
I disagree.
The "Alibaba" fakes are very low quality.
In the 1960s, copies of US gold coins were coming out of the Middle east, in quantity.
These were better quality than what is being faked today.
Completely wrong. They are not universally of ‘very low quality’ and many are more than adequate enough to smoke all but die experts, particularly the artificially aged and patinated ones. This isn’t to say that ‘very low quality fakes don’t exist’ or that ‘all Chinese us key date fakes are the same as middle eastern gold fakes’ but it’s just plain wrong to characterize them all as being of ‘very low quality’
Whilst I am clearly not US-centric, I have detected a pull in both directions at the Midland and Yorkshire monthly fairs here in the UK. There is far more frenetic activity at 9:30 in the morning when the doors open, but it is tailing off considerably after midday, to the extent that quite a few dealers pack up early. In part this must be influenced by the weather or local sporting events, as your average collector is male and mostly older than average, but also a degree of FOMO. i.e they are fairly set in their ways.
However, against that must be noted that every fair brings out 2 or 3 youngsters with their parent(s) that are new to the venue and/or hobby. Inevitably they will collect from circulation, as we mostly did when young, but the real nerds will always exist and demand something esoteric, such as the 11 year old girl who surprised me somewhat when she enquired in a broad Yorkshire dialect - 'Have you got any double tournois in the tray? There are a good number of diverse countries/denominations/themes collected if you pay attention.
The Royal Mint has actually done a good job in stimulating collecting over the past 3 decades with its introduction of circulating commemorative 10p's, 50p's etc. If people see them in their change, they often try to learn about the depicted subject. That's good news. I for my part will always ask if they want their change in types they collect. The added bonus is it keeps them off the streets, but that is a different issue.
The question of prices is only a significant issue for those of us who have been collecting for a long time. I have a few customers at the table on a regular basis who for most of their lives have refused to pay over a certain amount for any coin. This fails to take into consideration the increase in salaries/pensions and general income. For new collectors it sets the bar as it is all they have experienced.
My wife put the last point into perspective this evening. Discussing with one of our offspring whether it was worth buying a house at the moment, the question of cost brought up the following fact. My parents bought a house in the 1950's which cost approximately the same as 100 sovereigns +/- 10%. In 1965 we moved to another house - same relative value. When they died it was sold for approximately the value of 110 sovereigns because gold was being sold off by governments at the time. It is now on the market for the same 100+ sovereigns value.
I guess the moral of the story is all pricing has to be put into context. Inflation is illusory to some extent, as the pot of money expands due to printing it, and regression to the mean when measured against physical assets is inevitable.
And for those concerned about fakes, the more there are, the better the indicators as to what to look for. Historical counterfeits are very collectable and a natural branch of numismatics. At the time, they filled the boots of today's Alibaba. e.g. Taylor's Soho restrikes were pooh-poohed at the time and caused a lot of irritation. Today, they are very collectable and sit comfortably alongside the originals. The quantities coming out of China tell you they will never be collectable to the same extent as genuinely scarce contemporary things from the past, but the general thrust of the argument is the same.
Anecdotal at best for sure, but for me, I am definitely buying less. I've found myself priced out last year several times and this year its only been worse.
@JohnnyCache said:
Anecdotal at best for sure, but for me, I am definitely buying less. I've found myself priced out last year several times and this year its only been worse.
Buying less because you’re getting picky? Because the things you collect are getting more and more difficult to find? (either because of scarcity or nearing set termination) or because you’re just flat out getting outbid and unwilling to step up financially?
For me, I keep having to remind myself that the almighty dollar is worth significantly less than it was just a few years ago. Whatever I bought for $1000 in 2015, I should be paying $1800 for today. That’s just keeping everything the same. Just inflation. If the coin is ALSO increasing in popularity, it would increase even more.
Buying less because you’re getting picky? Because the things you collect are getting more and more difficult to find? (either because of scarcity or nearing set termination) or because you’re just flat out getting outbid and unwilling to step up financially?
>
Here is an example of something I was watching recently, never bid because the price sored up at the open.
Granted its got a nice provenance and at AU-53 it's actually the highest graded Mexico 2 escudos at PCGS, it also has what I find to be a distracting scrape on the face.
In 2024 I bought the somewhat rarer version of this coin which sold in Feb. 2026, mine is with the "+" between the H and I, as opposed to this coins more frequently seen "+" between the I and S.
This sold for almost 4x what I paid, same grade, same PCGS holder, and I argue that mine has better eye appeal.
I was the direct under bidder on this coin by representation (CRO)
A six thousand dollar bid for a Chile 2 Reales isn't not stepping up. I got outbid.
Prices are very competitive and there are many more examples between the different auction houses I could identify but the results are all similar, stronger bidders, and not just a little stronger.
Auction prices in US venues have been extremely strong. I’d venture to guess that in many cases a dealer couldn’t sell the same coin for the same auction price on the day before the auction to the eventual winning bidder.
The psychology at auction of “what’s the most I’m willing to pay” and then the resetting of that expectation once the bidding blows by that price, is much different that analyzing a coin in a dealers case or website which has a fixed number and just you and your self-confidence to decide whether to pass or play and not the validation of another bidder pushing the price upward.
In that, there’s certainly an opportunity to know a great coin and be willing to pay up for it when offered in a fixed price format from a dealer. Even if you can’t perfectly make sense of the price asked, if the coin is special, it may be worth it.
Non-US auction house still offer relatively good value without the same level of heated competition as do some of the non-name sales in the major auctions.
TalerUniverse.com is a curated numismatic project dedicated to the silver talers, crowns, and medals of the Habsburg Empire and the Holy Roman Empire, spanning the 16th–18th centuries. The collection emphasizes historically significant issues, rare mint varieties, and high-grade NGC/PCGS examples, presented with detailed historical context, scholarly references, and high-resolution photography. TalerUniverse aims to serve both as a private collection showcase and a growing reference resource for collectors, researchers, and students of early-modern European coinage.
Comments
This thread is an example of the short sightedness of the human animal.
I have noticed people on this, and every other coin collecting chat board, group, club, coin show and coin shop I have ever attended think that their 'market' IS 'The Market'. There is no one market of anything. The coin market consists of many small markets and what is important to one can have absolutely no import on another market. The market for collectables is by in large a market that depends totally on participants that have extra funds and narrow focus, but we all know this, right? We just forget it when things are other than we wish. The price of your DMPL Morgans has no effect on the price of my circulated Lincoln Memorial cents. Two different markets. I know we all know this we just seem to think that 'our' market is 'The Market'.
I guess it will always be My way is the way any other way is wrong. If your market is getting too hot to play in you can cry about it, profit in it, wait it out, or move to another part of the market. Or I guess you can wave your arms in the air running around screaming "The sky is falling!"
China is different because there are a billion people of exponentially rising economic relevance who are rapidly reacquiring their cultural artifacts. I understand ‘the magnitude of factors’ is qualitative and super hard to understand for ‘certain people’, but this isn’t a novel observation Im inventing here.
There’s a reason the TPGs are opening offices in Asia and not in Hungary or Lesoto (or, following your logic, ‘why are they opening offices in Hong Kong and not Hyderabad???’)
So yes, the American market condition in numismatics is a rapidly aging demographic and it’s not going to be replaced by anyone on the horizon. The Chinese market condition is one of a considerably younger demographic, increasing economic potential and many more of them in a frenzy to acquire their own cultural artifacts and they love numismatics. That factor isn’t in play here. Comprehending that manny places in Asia ‘are different than America’ is by no means a novel observation, either. I think it was Jeremy Grantham who coined the phrase “extrapolate nothing from Japan” in the 80s.
As it turns out, market conditions aren’t always global.
Where should I send the bill for this consultation?
The rich aren’t getting poorer and although I would never advise rare coins as investments, they are “assets” and they are extremely fun (to a certain type of person). Human beings collecting stuff is not going to die out anytime soon no matter how crazy the world gets.
I hear all this talk of the collector base aging out while with my own eyes I consistently see lots of fresh (young) faces on both sides of the table at shows in my area (and nationally), and get friendly ribbing for not being on coin instagram all the time even from guys older than me.
Honestly I’m 48 and I’ve felt “old” in the coin scene a few times in the last year when making deals (guys wanting to use Zelle instead of me writing checks, or even using cash!.. which his fine I guess). One dealer who is a bit younger than me recently busted my chops for still having a leather wallet 😆.
Fakes have been a part of the hobby for over a millennium and will always be a part of the landscape. The better the counterfeiters get, the better the detection technology and collector best practices seems to get…..and round and round we go.
I certainly respect anyone’s concerns, especially when it’s for the general health of the hobby. I’ve been around long enough to see some big spikes and crashes across the board in multiple areas of life (as most here have i suspect).
I don’t think the stamp hobby comparison has ever been that great. At the top of a multitude of reasons why is that it was never tied into or supported by a precious metals market.
While most of the coins we show off here don’t have much ebb and flow with the greater gold and silver market…….there sure were a lot more people at FUN when silver was hovering around $100. If stamps had a similar connection there’d be underlying opportunity (or perception of) to hold or collect them. Theres none of that.
The scale of high quality fakes has never, ever been anywhere near this bad.
Nowhere close. It’s bad-bad, particularly with key dates. In 1997, a high quality fake key date involved a fraud-minded precision die maker or a rogue jeweler. Now, it’s an internet connection and $5 on alibaba.
Not the same.
Bullion and numismatics can be related, and bullion is often a gateway to numismatics, but they’re ultimately different things. This is reflected in the receipts at basically all coin shops weighting towards bullion as they do with do. Many ‘coin shops’ have numismatics as a token gesture, the rest is all bullion.
My first coin show was March 1987, so I’ve been doing it that long.
I agree I’m also seeing ‘more young people at coin shows’ now than say the low point of the late 90s or early 00s (back when I was the youngest member of my local CC by several decades), the COVID collectibles boom has been great for coin collecting for sure, but I’m also at every FUN show and the terminal decline of the demography is still pretty apparent, albeit with a few green chutes of younger-person activity that didn’t exist 30 years ago. Hopefully that trend continues.
Consultation? Riiiiiiight...
I'm going to assume you're heavily invested in the Chinese game. I'm not interested in it currently, nor am I heavily invested in US coinage: I think it's overhyped, on average, and there's probably going to be a correction for the average-lower end collectibles as the world starts to recognize and invest in other historic coinage.
I didn't say China isn't a strong market, nor that it won't continue to be. Just that China will be affected by your stated factors, just as much as anyone, or even more.
What you're saying, however, is that China is immune to your three things that will influence collector demand for the rest of the world. I'm suggesting that you temper your expectations, the likelihood of China experiencing the same factors for impeded growth is at least as high, if not moreso.
China striving to reacquire its history will affect the top percentage of coins and collectables, but that's not what you're talking about, we're talking average collector base. Cut any population by 40% over twenty years and any collector item is overwhelmingly likely to slack in demand, with few exceptions. If an item is collected by only .1% of a population, and you cut that population down, logic might dictate that 40% of the collectors would be affected also. Even if it's not true to the full extent, it would be reasonable to assume that SOME of those would be among your collector base. Even a change of 10% would be very noticeable in auction prices.
I personally don't see historically important coins ever being deemed worthless. People have been collecting coins for a very long time, and while coins are becoming obsolete, there are lots of long obsolete items that continue to have large demand. Ancient Arrowheads come to mind.
I don't really think postage stamps compare either. They were invented in 1840. That's not even 200 years. Coins have been around since 650BC, there's just way more history there, and way more "story" that goes along with them, nevermind the precious metal angle.
Julius Caesar coins aren't particularly rare, but they have, and will continue to have, huge demand. An Eid Mar Aureus will ALWAYS be one of the most desirable coins. Even China would agree. And you can quote me on that.
I'm BACK!!! Used to be Billet7 on the old forum.
I think we ‘mostly’ agree on all the same points (including significant agreement on some key points, ie: the bottom end of the collectibles market, US numismatics, etc) but we’re speaking about two different timelines.
Right now, factors hitting US numismatics arent in play in China. This is both demographic and economic. We are a fully mature, now declining superpower and we already had our period of peak interest in our history, our artifacts, etc. They are now on the economic trajectory timeline about where we were at around the immediate postwar period; very much on the upswing. This influences their hobby markets.
I do definitely have some investment in Chinese numismatics, but not nearly enough for someone who ‘saw it coming’ 25+ years ago but didn’t act decisively enough. Key factors re: fakes influencing our Numismatic market have very ironically already hit them BEFORE they hit us. Chinese numismatics have been faked at scale since at least the 1960s. Not so for US numismatics, which really only in the past 7-10 years have been smashed like theirs already has. If anything, Chinese cash coinage was one of the first numismatic niches to show what a state of terminal decline/existential threat looks like as a result of so many fakes requiring extreme expertise to discern from authentic, if they’re even discernible at all.
One can fairly argue ‘what is hitting us now will eventually hit them’ in numismatics and indeed it already has, but at present their market is just so much more vibrant than ours (which despite recent changes is still very stale), I’m quite confident thats outside my lifetime.
Wasnt the question about the hobby? What markets are you talking about?
If you read, it says right there.
.
I disagree.
The "Alibaba" fakes are very low quality.
In the 1960s, copies of US gold coins were coming out of the Middle east, in quantity.
These were better quality than what is being faked today.
.
Although the subject of fakes is interesting, the subject in hand IMHO is more related to the high price issues. I do not see an expanding collector base, but rather the opposite. Many have said that, well, the top end is the top end and they do not see the relevance of the "base" of collectors. Also obviously my opinion but how popular will even "top end" coins be if there is no base? I think the excitement (or whatever it is) is diminished if the pond is significantly smaller with time.
As a reasonably related corollary, I always find it interesting when the issue of contracting and aging collector base is raised, that people cite a number of younger dealers and YNs....Well, I have been going to the Baltimore show amongst others for over 30 years (no comment!) and note there are FAR fewer younger collectors than there was previously, even 5 or 10 years ago.
And frankly quite crazy to say that the younger collectors are using the internet for transactions. While likely true that there is more of this, I do not see substantial evidence of this. Will leave that rant for now....
Well, just Love coins, period.
Completely wrong. They are not universally of ‘very low quality’ and many are more than adequate enough to smoke all but die experts, particularly the artificially aged and patinated ones. This isn’t to say that ‘very low quality fakes don’t exist’ or that ‘all Chinese us key date fakes are the same as middle eastern gold fakes’ but it’s just plain wrong to characterize them all as being of ‘very low quality’
Can anyone say "rage bait?!" 😂
I'm willing to bet @dcarr actually knows a thing or two about this subject...
I'm BACK!!! Used to be Billet7 on the old forum.
Whilst I am clearly not US-centric, I have detected a pull in both directions at the Midland and Yorkshire monthly fairs here in the UK. There is far more frenetic activity at 9:30 in the morning when the doors open, but it is tailing off considerably after midday, to the extent that quite a few dealers pack up early. In part this must be influenced by the weather or local sporting events, as your average collector is male and mostly older than average, but also a degree of FOMO. i.e they are fairly set in their ways.
However, against that must be noted that every fair brings out 2 or 3 youngsters with their parent(s) that are new to the venue and/or hobby. Inevitably they will collect from circulation, as we mostly did when young, but the real nerds will always exist and demand something esoteric, such as the 11 year old girl who surprised me somewhat when she enquired in a broad Yorkshire dialect - 'Have you got any double tournois in the tray? There are a good number of diverse countries/denominations/themes collected if you pay attention.
The Royal Mint has actually done a good job in stimulating collecting over the past 3 decades with its introduction of circulating commemorative 10p's, 50p's etc. If people see them in their change, they often try to learn about the depicted subject. That's good news. I for my part will always ask if they want their change in types they collect. The added bonus is it keeps them off the streets, but that is a different issue.
The question of prices is only a significant issue for those of us who have been collecting for a long time. I have a few customers at the table on a regular basis who for most of their lives have refused to pay over a certain amount for any coin. This fails to take into consideration the increase in salaries/pensions and general income. For new collectors it sets the bar as it is all they have experienced.
My wife put the last point into perspective this evening. Discussing with one of our offspring whether it was worth buying a house at the moment, the question of cost brought up the following fact. My parents bought a house in the 1950's which cost approximately the same as 100 sovereigns +/- 10%. In 1965 we moved to another house - same relative value. When they died it was sold for approximately the value of 110 sovereigns because gold was being sold off by governments at the time. It is now on the market for the same 100+ sovereigns value.
I guess the moral of the story is all pricing has to be put into context. Inflation is illusory to some extent, as the pot of money expands due to printing it, and regression to the mean when measured against physical assets is inevitable.
And for those concerned about fakes, the more there are, the better the indicators as to what to look for. Historical counterfeits are very collectable and a natural branch of numismatics. At the time, they filled the boots of today's Alibaba. e.g. Taylor's Soho restrikes were pooh-poohed at the time and caused a lot of irritation. Today, they are very collectable and sit comfortably alongside the originals. The quantities coming out of China tell you they will never be collectable to the same extent as genuinely scarce contemporary things from the past, but the general thrust of the argument is the same.
Anecdotal at best for sure, but for me, I am definitely buying less. I've found myself priced out last year several times and this year its only been worse.
2026 - 2 coin purchases
2025 - 4 coin purchases
2024 - 12 coin purchases
2023 - 20 coin purchases
Buying less because you’re getting picky? Because the things you collect are getting more and more difficult to find? (either because of scarcity or nearing set termination) or because you’re just flat out getting outbid and unwilling to step up financially?
For me, I keep having to remind myself that the almighty dollar is worth significantly less than it was just a few years ago. Whatever I bought for $1000 in 2015, I should be paying $1800 for today. That’s just keeping everything the same. Just inflation. If the coin is ALSO increasing in popularity, it would increase even more.
I'm BACK!!! Used to be Billet7 on the old forum.
I am buying less because everything is getting more expensive (either inflation or actual price increase).
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Here is an example of something I was watching recently, never bid because the price sored up at the open.
Granted its got a nice provenance and at AU-53 it's actually the highest graded Mexico 2 escudos at PCGS, it also has what I find to be a distracting scrape on the face.
In 2024 I bought the somewhat rarer version of this coin which sold in Feb. 2026, mine is with the "+" between the H and I, as opposed to this coins more frequently seen "+" between the I and S.
This sold for almost 4x what I paid, same grade, same PCGS holder, and I argue that mine has better eye appeal.
I was the direct under bidder on this coin by representation (CRO)
A six thousand dollar bid for a Chile 2 Reales isn't not stepping up. I got outbid.
Prices are very competitive and there are many more examples between the different auction houses I could identify but the results are all similar, stronger bidders, and not just a little stronger.
Auction prices in US venues have been extremely strong. I’d venture to guess that in many cases a dealer couldn’t sell the same coin for the same auction price on the day before the auction to the eventual winning bidder.
The psychology at auction of “what’s the most I’m willing to pay” and then the resetting of that expectation once the bidding blows by that price, is much different that analyzing a coin in a dealers case or website which has a fixed number and just you and your self-confidence to decide whether to pass or play and not the validation of another bidder pushing the price upward.
In that, there’s certainly an opportunity to know a great coin and be willing to pay up for it when offered in a fixed price format from a dealer. Even if you can’t perfectly make sense of the price asked, if the coin is special, it may be worth it.
Non-US auction house still offer relatively good value without the same level of heated competition as do some of the non-name sales in the major auctions.
Latin American Collection
My experience has been hit or miss with the exception of true fresh/top tier coins.
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