Are high prices going to kill the hobby?

Don't get me wrong, I've always said high prices are good for both buyers and sellers.
For sellers, it allows them to clear out coins they no longer have an interest in without losing lots of money.
For buyers, it brings out new coins to the market that otherwise would not be available.
But when prices get too high too fast, average folks cannot buy nice/interesting coins, and either lose interest and move elsewhere, to a new collecting area or a new hobby entirely. Why continue to try to collect what you can no longer afford?
We've heard how medical costs and real estate prices are outpacing inflation and outpacing salaries. Has it now happened with numismatics?
When it becomes a playground of the wealthy (like fine art has), have we lost something?
Thoughts?
Comments
I think it’s a self-correcting problem. If coins rise fast enough to drive enough people away, prices will drop enough to attract new blood.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Not so sure about that.
If the ones being driven away are not among the top payers for coins (i.e. the top 2-3 bidders in an auction), then they essentially have no control over the market. As long as there are a handful of rich folks, it will not matter what the others do.
You only have to look at paintings to see that.
I seem to buy high and sell low...

I see it as a blend of these two sentiments, where rising prices do in fact bring out coins to the market place and I think it happens almost equally at both ends of the quality spectrum. Dealers and collectors that will dump low to medium priced material hoping to do as well as possible and high end / high quality material from more sophisticated collectors, who pay more attention to pricing trends, that will look to capitalize on the upswing. Both of these inflows of supply, I would think, should help to prevent excessive over heating of the market.
Charles III Album
Charles III Portrait Set
Charles IV Album
Charles IV Portrait Set
Spanish Colonial Pillar Set
The US coin market is going strong now, does anyone have any insight on world coins at this point?
Strong prices at platinum auction Heritage going on now!
Wowee!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Although not really a direct answer to the OP question, I'll add that many coin collectors who find themselves priced out of the market for the coins they were collecting sell that collection for a big profit and then start collecting some other coins that are more suited to their budget. Sometimes, that process happens overnight. Other times, it's a gradual progression from one specialty to another. It's all good, really. Which is more than I can say about what happens when markets tank.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The world coin market is very strong overall. Some of the high flying series have appreciated so much as to be virtually uncollectable for a knowledgeable buyer. (Investors are another story. Think Una & the Lions, Gothic Crowns, Common Chinese Dollars, etc.) But so many world coins are still such incredible value that I don't see many collectors exiting anytime soon.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I doubt it will last some new intense blood but when they get what they want they will slow down. Ultra rare coins and coins that only come up for auction every decade or so will be different.
These buyers may end up losing their shirts when it comes back to selling them. They may have had 2-3 intense bidders today but what if only 1 is there when the next time they come up for sale it is risky. This is not US coins or coins from China those I would be less worried about long term.
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So it's a race to the bottom? I know for sure that I'm not about to start collecting coins from circulation. I'd just as soon leave the hobby entirely. I agree I'd make a killing on the sale of my current collection, but what fun would that be?
I keep coming back to the world of art. Most people are priced out of fine art. If I wanted a nice painting for my living room, you can be darn sure I'm not buying it at HomeGoods. Where else could I go?
What coins went so high that it was mind blowing? I saw some ultra rare gold coins and a few patterns sell high but those probably almost never ever show up for auction and what are you going to do wait another 10-20 years.
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Not a race to the bottom just a few guys that may regret when they sell back and maybe not we will see. But coins you can buy 1-2 times per year what is the rush to throw your money at them now when things will most likely cost less next time around. Art is different it is the ultra rich and only one painting of each exists.
Coins that come up for sale so rarely those I understand people just don't want to wait decades again for one.
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The race to the bottom is the response to @MrEureka when he says to sell what one is collecting and start something else cheaper. That's what many US copper collectors did in the 1990s when early copper prices started rising to insane levels. Where did they go? Beats me, but the new areas are probably not as interesting as the old ones.
Yeah Im to old to wait
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Only takes 2-3 new people wanting to own all that they can will they last as long term collectors we will see but once they have what they want then prices will go down if there is no new blood.
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Lollll then buy the coins you want enjoy life. Most coins are not rare enough to buy at a hobbies high point. Of course some are but not most.
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I should know I am one of the new players paying high prices my guess there are 3-5 others.
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It is like that 1770 8 Reales from Colombia it had over 100 tracking the the lot and almost 3500 views in the end 1 single bid of 60k.
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And in what sector of the market has your presence made a wave?
Latin American Collection
Actually, almost all British gold is crazy high, not just Unas. I've bid on two pieces this month and was blown away on both at what I thought were very competitive bids.
My presence is minimal but I doubt there are more than 3-5 new big players that started in the last 12 months.
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Yes that will be a country people will start having a harder time buying. It is different than South American countries. Much more demand even more now.
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I think South America will do well long term but I do not think we are there yet will take more players that stick with it long term.
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Hey I could be wrong let's wait and see.
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If this was a US, British or Chinese coin it would have went nuts.
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So which coin sold tonite was the greatest surprise ?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
It reminds me of here in Canada when the king of Canadian coins comes up for sale the 1921 50 cent piece usually gets so much attention then 1 to 3 bids then it is over and some times no bids depending on reserve.
I collected Canadian coins for over a decade owned most ultra rarities and hopped one day people would see how truly rare they are and how cheap they are but that was back in mid 2000 now in 2021 nothing has changed some new players then nothing. People here in Canada have good incomes for the most part yet coins are not important to them. I would say out of 35 million people less than 100 are truly truly serious collectors.
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Well, I see this detrimental for the hobby. Bubbles are bad for everyone and if you have to be Bill Gates, this is a really bad problem. I cannot be going in life collecting 20K and if comes to that... I'll keep on collecting my medieval Manuscripts. That is a smaller market
Some of the things I used to collect are hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece these days, if not millions. I'm not going back to those anytime in this lifetime, but you know enough about what I collect now to think I'm racing to the bottom. In fact, I like what I'm collecting now as much as anything I've ever collected, and it's even more challenging.
As for art, pretty much the same story. You can buy amazing things for five and six figures that are every bit as good and every bit as interesting as paintings that bring millions or tens of millions. You just can't get the same name recognition and status that the buyers of Rothko, Picasso and Warhol crave.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
It's astonishing that the 1742 Mexico Pillar Dollar in 66 brought almost as much as the 1770 Nuevo Reino Pillar Dollar in 64. (55K hammer vs. 60K hammer.) Are those two grade points really worth as much as the difference between a coin with thousands known and a coin with only 14 known? There are so many great opportunities out there, and so many traps.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Why do you think more bidders did not appear for the Chilean 8 reales ….when
they did appear for the 66 pillar mexico (at least two strong bidders left toward the end ) ?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I would rather own the 1770 all day every day.
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Mint state coins are great don't get me wrong but ultra rare coins are better in my opinion.
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But it's a proven market fact that high grades sell better than low-grade rarities. Proven time and time again.
That is what I meant but would rather own the 1770 in this case (even if it was not mint state). Mint state coins are better to own no doubt about that.
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For some reason I always preferred the look of coins in VG-08 to VF-20 that present well. But that is just me I know MS coins are better to own.
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There are a bunch of high roller wealthy individuals in Mexico that got rich and started collecting during the pandemic. These are the "macho" buyers that I previously mentioned have more money than brains. They want the bragging rights at any cost proving they are better than others, despite being novices. So they are throwing their money around to obtain those bragging rights. That's part of it at least.
As for Chile 8Rs, I sold an rare UNC details (cleaned) Colonial bust 8R in the ANA auction and took a major bath. It's not that the cleaning made the coin that much less desirable. It was still a nice coin. But there just wasn't enough interest at this point in time to have any bidding competition.
Will not take them long to see all their money fly out the window easy come easy go.
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What happens if they want to sell is they try to sell privately for a profit over the inflated price they paid. When they fail to find a sucker (and they will), they hang on forever unless absolutely forced to sell. But they usually hang on forever, hence the coins are off the market until they pass away and the wife puts them in auction. When the first group don't do as well as she was promised (or they bring less than he paid), she too hangs onto them until she passes. I've seen this first hand in my area of specialty.
The story behind the 1770 Nuevo Reino Pillar is worth 5k alone .
Charles III Album
Charles III Portrait Set
Charles IV Album
Charles IV Portrait Set
Spanish Colonial Pillar Set
Yes there may be only 14 known but 4 of those are graded 64 by NGC ….!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Agreed it is a special coin worth every penny paid.
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How different is it really....
1913_Liberty_Head_nickel
PCGS 1913
Charles III Album
Charles III Portrait Set
Charles IV Album
Charles IV Portrait Set
Spanish Colonial Pillar Set
True …
According to Heritage’s description of the 1742 pillar in 66 they said out of over 10,000 graded Mexican pillars there were only 3 graded in 66.
I just find the 1742 pillar in PCGS 66 to be the more iconic coin.
Thats’s just me.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Which means you bought it???
Or tried to buy it, as you are always the bridesmaid.....
The 1742 Pillar Dollar in MS66 brought exactly the same price as the Caballito Peso Pattern in PF65 Matte. I know which one I'd rather own.....
A
I was hoping to bid on some nice cap & rays 8 reales but they were not in this auction .
Platinum night no less …..go figure.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Did anyone here win anything today?
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This is not the first post lamenting inflation in auction results but you all seem to focus on the high end of the hobby. Do you have any evidence that the "dreck" coins have experienced that same level of inflation? And how much of the "hobby", by number of transactions, does your high end auction results actually represent?
There are many thousands of MS Mexican pillar dollars, and at least hundreds of thousands in all grades. There are perhaps two dozen Colombian pillar dollars of all dates and grades, combined.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.