@pruebas said:
When it becomes a playground of the wealthy (like fine art has), have we lost something?
There are lots of art and coins that remain inexpensive.
In a changing environment, the hard thing is that people may not change their coin preferences as quickly as those preference change prices.
Except people like what they like. Why do they need to “change their preferences” just to suit some rich folks entering the market and driving up prices?
My feeling is they would just assume leave the market than “change preferences.”
Personally, I’m not about to start collecting African coins because Latin American coins have been driven to insane levels.
@pruebas said:
When it becomes a playground of the wealthy (like fine art has), have we lost something?
There are lots of art and coins that remain inexpensive.
In a changing environment, the hard thing is that people may not change their coin preferences as quickly as those preference change prices.
Except people like what they like. Why do they need to “change their preferences” just to suit some rich folks entering the market and driving up prices?
My feeling is they would just assume leave the market than “change preferences.”
Personally, I’m not about to start collecting African coins because Latin American coins have been driven to insane levels.
It's important to understand if the "insane levels" are a short-term or long-term change. If it's a short-term bubble, many will be able to wait it out. If not, changing preferences or leaving the hobby are both valid responses.
In terms of collecting preferences, sometimes it may take a generational change. For example, many older collectors see anything after 1964 as modern and won't collect them, but for many YNs, that's 30 years before they were born.
@pruebas said:
When it becomes a playground of the wealthy (like fine art has), have we lost something?
There are lots of art and coins that remain inexpensive.
In a changing environment, the hard thing is that people may not change their coin preferences as quickly as those preference change prices.
Except people like what they like. Why do they need to “change their preferences” just to suit some rich folks entering the market and driving up prices?
My feeling is they would just assume leave the market than “change preferences.”
Personally, I’m not about to start collecting African coins because Latin American coins have been driven to insane levels.
It's important to understand if the "insane levels" are a short-term or long-term change. If it's a short-term bubble, many will be able to wait it out. If not, changing preferences or leaving the hobby are both valid responses.
In terms of collecting preferences, sometimes it may take a generational change. For example, many older collectors see anything after 1964 as modern and won't collect them, but for many YNs, that's 30 years before they were born.
Short and long term are both relative. I don’t know about you, but this addict can’t go more than a few weeks without buying a numismatic item….
In my opinion, if you don't cultivate the young enthusiasts the hobby (at heart) will die.
At a recent coin show I stepped away from the table to walk about and shoot the breeze. To my surprise the crowd was legitimately 25% kids. 17 under. Buying and selling what they could, etc..
Two tables I passed had kids looking at cheap coins they wanted to collect and it really set me back when the dealer wouldn't give the kids a $5-10 price break....on common date , everyday hole fillers. Literally sitting behind their stack of $500k in graded gold and wouldn't budge. Despite what some have said of my ways, this is straight greed.
I'm not saying to give your stuff away or piss off your investment in the interest of every kid. If you want to ask for 50% over market value for culls, what are you doing? You're not taking these coins with you. God and graverobbers will make sure of that.
@SonnyD said:
Two tables I passed had kids looking at cheap coins they wanted to collect and it really set me back when the dealer wouldn't give the kids a $5-10 price break....on common date , everyday hole fillers.
@pruebas said:
Are high prices going to kill the hobby?
My general thought is that high prices of some, but not all, coins won't kill the hobby, but it may kill interest from specific collectors. Overall, they hobby will survive.
@SonnyD said:
Two tables I passed had kids looking at cheap coins they wanted to collect and it really set me back when the dealer wouldn't give the kids a $5-10 price break....on common date , everyday hole fillers.
You could have offered to make up the difference.
Oddly enough I met with one of the kids parents and they directed their kid to my table where I made them a deal for 10oz of silver they wouldn't get any other table. Good deed done.
@SonnyD said:
Two tables I passed had kids looking at cheap coins they wanted to collect and it really set me back when the dealer wouldn't give the kids a $5-10 price break....on common date , everyday hole fillers.
You could have offered to make up the difference.
Oddly enough I met with one of the kids parents and they directed their kid to my table where I made them a deal for 10oz of silver they wouldn't get any other table. Good deed done.
Well, see- everything worked out fine. No need to have made a fuss because somebody else didn't live up to your standards.
@SonnyD said:
Two tables I passed had kids looking at cheap coins they wanted to collect and it really set me back when the dealer wouldn't give the kids a $5-10 price break....on common date , everyday hole fillers.
You could have offered to make up the difference.
Oddly enough I met with one of the kids parents and they directed their kid to my table where I made them a deal for 10oz of silver they wouldn't get any other table. Good deed done.
Well, see- everything worked out fine. No need to have made a fuss because somebody else didn't live up to your standards.
This thread came to mind when reading this article on the "booming" art market today. Just a reminder that nothing happens in a vacuum. As mentioned in previous posts, this trend has countless dimensions and influences including but not limited to covid disruption skewing supply/demand balance, historically low cost of money for asset acquisition, travel leisure funds being reallocated to different purposes, growth of online consumerism, etc. I don't personally see red flags for the hobby but rather the opposite; new eyes and pocketbooks getting involved. Some will do well and others will unfortunately get burned in the long run.
I collect German coins and I just received the 2021 version of the Jaeger catalog in the mail yesterday. This one is significant because it's exactly to years newer than the 2011 catalog I first got when I started. For kicks I thought I'd compare the price to build a Gem UNC set of West German 5 Marks from 1951-1974. This is arguably the most collectable series made by present day Germany. The price of the set was 8794 euro in 2011 and 8248 euro in 2021. Once you factor in inflation, the series is 25-30% cheaper now than it was 10 years ago in roughly MS65 grade (according to the price guide).
If you ever feel like prices are too high, there are definitely interesting parts of the hobby that aren't experiencing insane pricing.
Just reading the title of this thread again, it would seem to me that high prices would denote high interest and competitive purchasing all around. I would guess that low prices would be what kills the hobby or be a sign of diminished interest and demand.
Yes, there are segments of the world market which are beyond strong right now, perhaps bubble territory. However, there are countless interesting series and areas which are still affordably priced, or even underpriced, in my opinion.
I really think the OP title is just too strong. The guts may get damaged, the heart to remain if weakened is my opinion. There are definitely fewer YNs about and no real interest in the tremendous number of kids that I have seen and talked to and absolutely NONE of my son's friends or classmates are at all interested, nor have they been in this year or any other. Their response is actually quite negative, even to what appear to be the most attractive, or even gold or silver, etc.
The demographics are similar to that for Buicks: an inverted pyramid, top-heavy with elderly compared with many fewer at the base. This is notwithstanding the occasional YN or group of such as it is the overall larger picture.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Which subtends my point , however in IMHO markedly decreased numbers.
It seems that many discussions get derailed over points like this as it is NOT an all or nothing phenomen. They are there but MUCH less than previously to my experience and then I have the benefit of a child that has been in both parochial and public schools and NOWHERE along the way have I been able to generate interest no matter how creative my efforts.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
We are ignoring the emerging market demand which did not exist 20 years ago. A growing middle class, appetite for assets and history and quality. West shifts to East.
I waited for too long, to start or at least to be able to buy some of the nice coins that I could afford or can pay and wanted, few years now for my retirement and now debt free. But still there are some coins that they cost too much, and do not know if can be called 'Hobby' if one end up willing to pay $79,000 right now for the second finest known 1732-Mo 8R just to put it as an example.
On something maybe related, my son collect cards, and I have seen him, selling some of the cards for 500 to 1000 dollars or sometimes more, i.e Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh!, etc... Way expensive for what I can see too.
Demand is going sideways into quality world coins and currency especially graded / low pop. I bid aggressively on this material, especially Mexico second republic coins.
I am always on lookout (strong bidder) for quality Mexico Banco (revolution) notes whether raw or graded. Also buyer of France WW2 era and before banknotes. Then I am getting my nicer US & World raw notes graded as fast can send them off.
@Cougar1978 said:
Demand is going sideways into quality world coins and currency especially graded / low pop. I bid aggressively on this material, especially Mexico second republic coins.
I am always on lookout (strong bidder) for quality Mexico Banco (revolution) notes whether raw or graded. Also buyer of France WW2 era and before banknotes. Then I am getting my nicer US & World raw notes graded as fast can send them off.
Welcome to the 21st Century.........20 years late.
One reason I heard for the top end booming is that it has attracted a number of high net worth individuals. People with the odd billion in the bank wouldn't look twice at a coin costing a few thousand, but when those numbers go up to 30, 40, 50K, then they become interested. The price is not actually that important as long as the number is big enough.
@robp2 said:
One reason I heard for the top end booming is that it has attracted a number of high net worth individuals. People with the odd billion in the bank wouldn't look twice at a coin costing a few thousand, but when those numbers go up to 30, 40, 50K, then they become interested. The price is not actually that important as long as the number is big enough.
I think that sounds like a person imagining how a billionaire thinks, vs how a billionaire actually thinks.
And it isn’t billionaires driving the coin market up, but it is a few lower end millionaires I’d guess
@robp2 said:
One reason I heard for the top end booming is that it has attracted a number of high net worth individuals. People with the odd billion in the bank wouldn't look twice at a coin costing a few thousand, but when those numbers go up to 30, 40, 50K, then they become interested. The price is not actually that important as long as the number is big enough.
I think that sounds like a person imagining how a billionaire thinks, vs how a billionaire actually thinks.
And it isn’t billionaires driving the coin market up, but it is a few lower end millionaires I’d guess
It came from someone not prone to exaggeration, but I probably phrased it a bit loosely. I wasn't meaning billionaires exclusively, rather people with a lot of money looking to park it in alternative investments. There is unquestionably a significant number of wealthy people looking to diversify risk and I can think of several individuals myself who will happily spend a six figure sum on a coin. When you get headlines such as that about the Edward VIII £5, people in all walks of life sit up and take notice.
To spend a few percent of your total wealth as a hedge against financial meltdown is a rational action, after all, the authorities have been printing money as fast as they can for the past 13 or 14 years, but the number of assets hasn't increased appreciably. Asset prices have to rise at least in part to compensate for the increase in money in circulation, as not all of it will be retained by the banks to bolster their reserves.
There's more to "The Hobby" than people who spend many thousands (or millions) of dollars on coins. I'd be willing to bet the majority of people who collect coins don't worry the least little bit about what the big spenders are doing (or not doing).
Comments
Except people like what they like. Why do they need to “change their preferences” just to suit some rich folks entering the market and driving up prices?
My feeling is they would just assume leave the market than “change preferences.”
Personally, I’m not about to start collecting African coins because Latin American coins have been driven to insane levels.
It's important to understand if the "insane levels" are a short-term or long-term change. If it's a short-term bubble, many will be able to wait it out. If not, changing preferences or leaving the hobby are both valid responses.
In terms of collecting preferences, sometimes it may take a generational change. For example, many older collectors see anything after 1964 as modern and won't collect them, but for many YNs, that's 30 years before they were born.
Short and long term are both relative. I don’t know about you, but this addict can’t go more than a few weeks without buying a numismatic item….
In my opinion, if you don't cultivate the young enthusiasts the hobby (at heart) will die.
At a recent coin show I stepped away from the table to walk about and shoot the breeze. To my surprise the crowd was legitimately 25% kids. 17 under. Buying and selling what they could, etc..
Two tables I passed had kids looking at cheap coins they wanted to collect and it really set me back when the dealer wouldn't give the kids a $5-10 price break....on common date , everyday hole fillers. Literally sitting behind their stack of $500k in graded gold and wouldn't budge. Despite what some have said of my ways, this is straight greed.
I'm not saying to give your stuff away or piss off your investment in the interest of every kid. If you want to ask for 50% over market value for culls, what are you doing? You're not taking these coins with you. God and graverobbers will make sure of that.
Ounce by ounce the stack grows .
You could have offered to make up the difference.
My general thought is that high prices of some, but not all, coins won't kill the hobby, but it may kill interest from specific collectors. Overall, they hobby will survive.
Oddly enough I met with one of the kids parents and they directed their kid to my table where I made them a deal for 10oz of silver they wouldn't get any other table. Good deed done.
Ounce by ounce the stack grows .
I feel like it is all my fault I have been paying to much as the newer guy hahaha!!!
NFL: Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers
Well, see- everything worked out fine. No need to have made a fuss because somebody else didn't live up to your standards.
Call the kettle black, much?
Ounce by ounce the stack grows .
This thread came to mind when reading this article on the "booming" art market today. Just a reminder that nothing happens in a vacuum. As mentioned in previous posts, this trend has countless dimensions and influences including but not limited to covid disruption skewing supply/demand balance, historically low cost of money for asset acquisition, travel leisure funds being reallocated to different purposes, growth of online consumerism, etc. I don't personally see red flags for the hobby but rather the opposite; new eyes and pocketbooks getting involved. Some will do well and others will unfortunately get burned in the long run.
https://wsj.com/articles/art-is-among-the-hottest-markets-on-earth-11636380000
Sometimes it can be for the good people selling stuff that rarely comes up to market. Just cost a lot more these days.
NFL: Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers
I collect German coins and I just received the 2021 version of the Jaeger catalog in the mail yesterday. This one is significant because it's exactly to years newer than the 2011 catalog I first got when I started. For kicks I thought I'd compare the price to build a Gem UNC set of West German 5 Marks from 1951-1974. This is arguably the most collectable series made by present day Germany. The price of the set was 8794 euro in 2011 and 8248 euro in 2021. Once you factor in inflation, the series is 25-30% cheaper now than it was 10 years ago in roughly MS65 grade (according to the price guide).
If you ever feel like prices are too high, there are definitely interesting parts of the hobby that aren't experiencing insane pricing.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
I'll tell y'all when I'm about to sell so you know when the bubble is about to pop
Just reading the title of this thread again, it would seem to me that high prices would denote high interest and competitive purchasing all around. I would guess that low prices would be what kills the hobby or be a sign of diminished interest and demand.
Yes, there are segments of the world market which are beyond strong right now, perhaps bubble territory. However, there are countless interesting series and areas which are still affordably priced, or even underpriced, in my opinion.
Justin Meunier
Boardwalk Numismatics
I really think the OP title is just too strong. The guts may get damaged, the heart to remain if weakened is my opinion. There are definitely fewer YNs about and no real interest in the tremendous number of kids that I have seen and talked to and absolutely NONE of my son's friends or classmates are at all interested, nor have they been in this year or any other. Their response is actually quite negative, even to what appear to be the most attractive, or even gold or silver, etc.
The demographics are similar to that for Buicks: an inverted pyramid, top-heavy with elderly compared with many fewer at the base. This is notwithstanding the occasional YN or group of such as it is the overall larger picture.
Well, just Love coins, period.
The YN’s are out there 😀
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Which subtends my point , however in IMHO markedly decreased numbers.
It seems that many discussions get derailed over points like this as it is NOT an all or nothing phenomen. They are there but MUCH less than previously to my experience and then I have the benefit of a child that has been in both parochial and public schools and NOWHERE along the way have I been able to generate interest no matter how creative my efforts.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I’m still buying nice coins full retail 🤓
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
We are ignoring the emerging market demand which did not exist 20 years ago. A growing middle class, appetite for assets and history and quality. West shifts to East.
Like this coin:
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I waited for too long, to start or at least to be able to buy some of the nice coins that I could afford or can pay and wanted, few years now for my retirement and now debt free. But still there are some coins that they cost too much, and do not know if can be called 'Hobby' if one end up willing to pay $79,000 right now for the second finest known 1732-Mo 8R just to put it as an example.
On something maybe related, my son collect cards, and I have seen him, selling some of the cards for 500 to 1000 dollars or sometimes more, i.e Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh!, etc... Way expensive for what I can see too.
Demand is going sideways into quality world coins and currency especially graded / low pop. I bid aggressively on this material, especially Mexico second republic coins.
I am always on lookout (strong bidder) for quality Mexico Banco (revolution) notes whether raw or graded. Also buyer of France WW2 era and before banknotes. Then I am getting my nicer US & World raw notes graded as fast can send them off.
Welcome to the 21st Century.........20 years late.
One reason I heard for the top end booming is that it has attracted a number of high net worth individuals. People with the odd billion in the bank wouldn't look twice at a coin costing a few thousand, but when those numbers go up to 30, 40, 50K, then they become interested. The price is not actually that important as long as the number is big enough.
I think that sounds like a person imagining how a billionaire thinks, vs how a billionaire actually thinks.
And it isn’t billionaires driving the coin market up, but it is a few lower end millionaires I’d guess
Latin American Collection
It came from someone not prone to exaggeration, but I probably phrased it a bit loosely. I wasn't meaning billionaires exclusively, rather people with a lot of money looking to park it in alternative investments. There is unquestionably a significant number of wealthy people looking to diversify risk and I can think of several individuals myself who will happily spend a six figure sum on a coin. When you get headlines such as that about the Edward VIII £5, people in all walks of life sit up and take notice.
To spend a few percent of your total wealth as a hedge against financial meltdown is a rational action, after all, the authorities have been printing money as fast as they can for the past 13 or 14 years, but the number of assets hasn't increased appreciably. Asset prices have to rise at least in part to compensate for the increase in money in circulation, as not all of it will be retained by the banks to bolster their reserves.
There's more to "The Hobby" than people who spend many thousands (or millions) of dollars on coins. I'd be willing to bet the majority of people who collect coins don't worry the least little bit about what the big spenders are doing (or not doing).