For "Live" Bidders on Heritage, Stacks, etc. A "Psychological" Question
winesteven
Posts: 4,611 ✭✭✭✭✭
While everyone can feel free to comment, I'd appreciate if ONLY those who partake in the "Live" bidding (only when the coin is actually on the block) partake in the survey itself. This way, while the results are still unscientific, it might have more meaning.
At least with Heritage, but maybe with Stacks too, I typically use their "not so well known" Live bid function, where i can place my max high bid weeks in advance of the actual live auction, without my bid taking effect until the lot actually goes on the block. Up to the point it's on the block, I can change that max bid, up or down, and even delete it. All of this is easy and quick. The advantage of me doing this, is that 1) I don't have to be on my computer when the coin actually goes on the block - I can be at a movie, asleep, etc. 2) The second advantage is that my max bid placed in this fashion, will win a "tie" with someone placing bids via phone, on the floor, or other "Live" bidders placing bids while the the coin is actually on the block. This is NOT what they call their "Proxy" bid, Those "Proxy" bids are placed before the auction actually starts, and take effect the moment they are placed, at one increment higher than the prior high bid.
Based on the above, when the coin actually goes on the block, the high Proxy bid shown will appear, and then IF there are any higher Live bids, those will then show up too.
When I place my "Live" Bid Max weeks in advance, assuming my max is high enough, once the coin is actually on the block, my Live bid will very quickly appear as the current high bid one increment above the prior high bid. If someone is placing live bids either on their computer, or on the floor or phone, their next bid will then appear, followed VERY QUICKLY by my bid, one increment above theirs.
Here's my question (finally, lol): If you're placing your bids when the coin is on the block, live, and the other person's current high bid is at the level you planned for your max bid, will you be more inclined to place just one more bid (possibly a "split" bid, but maybe a whole increment bid) if the "action" of the current high bidder has been fast (so you know it was placed in advance like i do), or more inclined to place another bid if the current high bidder had been placing their bids much slower, like they had to think about it?
As noted, please only answer the poll if you place live bids while the coin is actually on the block. Others can still feel free to comment, but please don't answer the poll.
Thanks.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Comments
I take part in live bidding quite often, and if I see bids placed very fast I know I don't have a real bidder on the other end and it inspires me to bid higher. I know I just have to clear the book and don't have to worry about someone getting carried away on the other end of the bids.
So to answer your question, fast bidding inspires me to bid more. Which is probably not a good idea, but that's normally what happens.
If it's something on my "must have" list, I always arrange for phone bidding. The pace of the bidding to me is immaterial. I really like the phone bidding feature because you can always have internet glitches - on the other hand, the auctioneer won't close the lot until the phone bidder is done.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
As someone who can get...carried away in auctions, if I see the fast bid that makes me pull back a little because I don't know if winning is just one bid away...or the other person put in a nuclear bid. Once I start bidding its real hard for me to stop.
Maybe live (in-person) auctions will carry a bit more psychological weight to bidding speed and style. Via computer, the speed of other bidders is totally irrelevant to me.
I will also often use HA's Bid Live Proxy, particularly for coins that are not must-haves but, depending on the coin, I may also be prepared to place additional live bids.
To clear up the Live and Proxy thing. Below is a screenshot of a lot with the auction staring in 15 minutes. It is called a Live Proxy Bidding. There are secret max bids and bid protection if one gets outbid. When this auction starts the screen will change but one can still enter a Proxy Bid on upcoming lots that is executed when the lot is opened for bidding. This live proxy bid is allowed up until two lots before the lot is opened. I used it Wednesday.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wwmUMvhy-lY - Pink Me And Bobby McGee
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
It can also be that there are multiple live auction bidders, and it can appear that bids are occurring very rapidly, before they begin dropping out in the "let me think about this" phase.
I don't care how fast bids had been appearing (other than being annoyed when I think I've "won" a lot and a new bid comes in under the wire). I always have an idea of what my "maximum" should be, but if I really want a coin I'll go higher. Even then I frequently find that someone else wants it more...
Collector of Liberty Seated Half Dimes, including die pairs and die states
I don't care how fast or slow the bids come. There have been times where my live bid has taken time to register. Since it is not my internet connection, I assume it is due to volume of people on the site.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
For in-person auctions I always try to be fast and confident. You can often times tell when a bidder is at or exceeding their limit and they are agonizing over whether they should continue to bid.
For online bidding I don't think you can really read the other bidder(s)
If i am only looking at 1 coin i bid in advance.
If there are a large number of coins I am interested in i will foillow the live auction and bid where i see fit.
The only thing i make note of , besides the current bid, is if the other bidder makes a cut bid. I always think of cut bids as half hearted and usually win if one is placed. James
All of the above sometimes. I will even big higher with a quick bidder if I think they are bidding me up on purpose and then dump it on them. I had that happen once in a Live Stacks (Ford collection) and that guy stayed away from me on the things I really wanted.
I bid live and pray that sanity overcomes my competitive instincts.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
But there's a decent chance that YOU can then end up with that coin, perhaps paying a price that you're sorry you paid.
Separately, how would he know how to stay away from YOU going forward?
Thanks.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
As someone who bids live, this can be dangerous. Sometimes you know it's the "book", sometimes it's hard to tell. And sometimes there is more than one bidder besides you and the hidden max bid. I have seen three bids go off at once and run the price further than where you want to be ... just like that.
That said, sometimes you know, and so maybe it's worth trying a cut bid. And sometimes your own max is your max range, and a cut or full bid is okay.
For me, generally, my max is my max and at that point I have to walk away. I have been known to go one more, but usually not twice.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Once I determine my max price, I never second-guess myself and increase my bid. If I am the underbidder on the lot, that may influence my bid on a future lot.
Joe.
I try to estimate a fair retail price and then bid three increments higher.
The goal is to bury the opposition.
If the current bid is a ways below my max bid and I am available, I try to bid live. I have found with some of the lower reputable firms not mentioned, my pre-bid soon becomes the current bid. If I win a lot, it is at my max pre-bid, never lower.
You really can't tell much from the speed of bids. [Not to mention it's dangerous letting others influence what I bid.] While an instant price increase is probably a left bid, the speed doesn't tell you whether it's also their highest bid or not. And I've seen slow bids be followed by flurries of live activity.
The risk is burying yourself. Lol.
I DGAF how the kids come in. I have a number and bid to that number + a cut unless I have received written permission ahead of time from my wife to "get what I want."
I intentionally bid very slowly if it seems to just be me vs another bidder, so that it seems like there is general reluctance to stretch beyond a certain value.
Bidding quickly might have a chance at intimidating the opponent (the thought process being “that guy is clearly trying hard to get the coin and must be nowhere near his max since he’s bidding so quickly, so I probably don’t have a chance at winning it”), but more likely it will not prevent people from bidding further, and instead will invite the idea that the value of the coin might be higher than previously expected since there is heavy and competitive competition for it.
If the estimated market value of a coin is roughly $5500 and bidding has been quick up until $5500, an opponent might more readily bid $6000, since it would seem that someone or multiple people are very confident in bidding $5500 and that the true market value might thus be higher. If bidding is quick until $3000, and then suddenly becomes slow and “reluctant”, opponents might drop out at (say) $5000, thinking that there aren’t that many people willing to pay that much for the coin. Because of this, I will also only bid once it seems that all other live bidders (except the high bidder) have dropped out, because if I bid before that then I will only be increasing the bidding speed.
There are definitely some games you can play. If bidding in person, I will sometimes skip a bid if I’m off increment before an increment change. For example, let’s say that the increment changes from $200 to $500 at a $5000 bid, and I know that the value of the coin is roughly $5000 and that $5500 is probably too high to bid. I currently have a bid of $4400, which means that with a $200 increment I will get the $4800 bid and the opponent will get the $5000 and I will not win the coin. So instead, after the opponent bids $4600, I will say “$5000” out loud instead of bidding $4800.
Trusting your gut. I was fully convinced it was a shill in the auction, I had seen him do things to other bidders. With the look on his face when I gave up suddenly told the tale. Yeah you can end up with the coin but I would not be bidding if I did not want to maybe end up with it. This is not just coins auctions but other auctions as well. I will buy at auction rare hunting big game tags which all go for big money.
One thing that slows my bidding down greatly is the auctions buyer’s premium. HA’s 20% seems awfully steep for a coin that literally sells itself. If a coin shows a price guide or estimate of $5000 and has already bid up to $4500, then I’m reluctant to bid as with the BP it’s now at $5400 plus shipping/insurance and possibly other fees. If I feel I’m getting a good deal (even with the BP added on), then I’m more likely to increase my bid at the last moment….but lately that hasn’t happened much. I’m also more interested in coins that other buyers have interest in since it lulls me into believing (possibly wrongly so) there’s something I’m missing that they see. 🤔😉
Although most of us reduce our hammer bids to take into account the bp. So ignoring exact math for this example, if many of us would be comfortable paying $5,000 for THAT coin, our hammer bid at Heritage or Stacks would be roughly $4,200, so we end up paying $5k. If on GC, then we would bid roughly $4,550, to end up paying about that same $5,000. So in effect with most bidders, it's really the consigner "paying" that fee, since they end up getting less.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
I set the price I will pay that is that, I will not allow myself to get into a bidding war. I might have a different strategy if I was bidding on some extremely rare item that only shows up every ten years. But that is not the case for me, there will be another just like this one, likely next week.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I often just put in a proxy bid and then wait until the auction is over to see if I have won.
If I am bidding live then I will have a max bid in mind and when the coin I want comes up I will wait a moment to see what bids come in. If there are bids but the high bid is still below my max, I will bid. If I someone bids again, I will bid right back or I may wait until the final countdown. In any case, I will stop at my max bid.
I set two bid prices. The first a reasonable but not my final, used to test the market and help avoid driving the price up too quickly. I determine my max and withhold it until the last few minutes. I don’t use any software, just old school. If my max is exceeded I’m done.
Won a coin today that I really wanted. If I wasn’t going to win the coin I would punish the winner. I won the coin and I’m very happy even though I overpaid. Hammer price was going to be my maximum bid.
The buyer’s premium is part of the price, so it shouldn’t slow you down at all. No one is expected to bid $5000+bp for a $5000 coin. That’s like saying that you would buy a coin worth $1 on eBay if it were listed at $1 with a $1000 shipping fee.
Hence why I’m much more likely to purchase a coin from GC vs HA since I can bid higher and get more bang for the buck…..10% more for me since I pay with echeck.
Your logic still confuses me, so let me try to understand using real accurate math in an example, ignoring shipping costs, but INCLUDING the Buyers Premium:
Let’s say there’s a coin that you determine is actually worth $1,000. If this was on GC, knowing you’ll pay a 10% Buyers Premium, you win the coin at your max hammer bid of $909.09 (10% of that is $90.91, so your cost is exactly $1,000, plus shipping).
If this exact coin is on Heritage, knowing they’ll charge you a whopping 20% Buyers Premium, you place a max hammer bid during the open Proxy period of only $833. 20% of that is $167, so your total cost is exactly $1,000, plus shipping (I believe Heritage will not allow pennies as part of a bid, but only whole dollars during that bidding period).
Yes, with GC, as you properly said, you bid higher than you bid in the Heritage example, but HOW are you getting more bang for the buck? In each example, your cost for that same coin is the identical $1,000 plus shipping?
YOU may retort that many bidders in the Heritage sale will place their max hammer bids at the same $909.09 that you (and they) place in the GC sale, but now that max hammer of $909.09 at Heritage will add on $181.82, and therefore cost the sucker bidding on Heritage $1,090.91 plus shipping. But this logic is false, since most bidders at Heritage recognize they’ll get hit with 20%, and that coin is worth only $1,000, so as a result, most bidders at Heritage will place a max bid as shown above of only $833, so the coin will then cost them $1,000 plus shipping!
As you should see, in theory in this example, it’s the consignor at Heritage who suffers, since in these examples the consignors receive only the hammer bid of the winner - the Heritage consignor gets $833, whereas the GC consignor gets $909.09 (let’s ignore the extra GC charge to the consignor for coins selling for less than $1,000 hammer).
The bottom line is it’s the consignor who indirectly pays the BP in each case, since neither consignor gets the $1,000 actually paid by the winners, but they only get the hammer portion of the price paid by the winning bidder, which I agree the consignor at Heritage gets less than the consignor at GC.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
No. You don't get anything more on GC vs HA unless you are refusing to consider the BP when you bid. A $5000 coin SHOULD cost $5000 TOTAL in both venues. The SELLER will yield different amount. A sophisticated buyer will pay the same.
I use a variant of that, if I really want it I get it and lie to my wife -- so much easier than explaining that I wanted it.
I never considered the fast or slow concept.. Interesting. You really have this down to a science.
I will keep that in mind for next time. I have gone much higher than I should have more than a few times due to ‘auction fever’ and the ‘have to have it’ Mindset. I don’t regret it, but I try not to make it a habit.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
One other comment i will make. The coin being bid on usually plays a bigger role in how high I will bid. It is very easy to set a specific bid number when you have a group of previous sales to reference. where I end up going past my intended max bid is when i am bidding on a coin that may not have a clear sales history. How do you set a max when you can't find a single example to compare to from the past 3, 5, 7 ,10 years? James
It all depends on how much I want to own the lot.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
You're not understanding the point. If you know what you are doing, you are including BPs when calculating your bids, and your "bang for the buck" is exactly the same on any platform, since a $600 bid on HA is really $500 + 20% while that is only a $550 bid on GC ($500 + $50).
Bidders aren't stupid. If the coin is worth $600, bidding won't stop at $500 on GC, and you aren't going to get "more bang for your buck" there.
Only the very least sophisticated of bidders do not include BPs when calculating max bids. And they learn pretty quickly, as they find themselves immediately buried in coin after coin after the auctions, if they are consistently overpaying by 10-20% on everything they buy.
My initial bid is somewhat calculated, a mix of prior auction results along with what I would be willing to pay, if anything, over & above those results. Sometimes, it turns out to be the winning bid. But if there are active bidders & I really want to secure the coin, I’ll go higher. Still, I never go “sky’s the limit”.
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
Copperindian
Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
Copperindian
Nickelodeon
Your thinking is fuzzy.
Let’s say an auction has a 100% BP and our maximum bid will be $600 without a BP. We would then bid $300. We have a $300 bid plus a $300 BP which totals $600.
We adjust our bid to the BP. It makes no difference what the BP is. Psychologically a lower BP sounds better but it doesn’t matter.
Once we get this situation figured out we can start a seminar on why stock splits are irrelevant to the market cap of a company😅
It's the exact same mindset and a lot more common than many people might think.
I > @seatedlib3991 said:
Great point. Often the coins I want the most these days don’t have a clear price history (mainly foreign). I may set my max higher than what I think is a best guess, if the coin is truly scarce/rare (also a guess sometimes).