@wondercoin said:
‘’My guess is if the seller asked $33,000 or $34,000 BIN, they would sell it on eBay just fine and make a nice profit.’’
What’s the profit % when the “2” rated buyer (hypothetically) claims he opened the box and inside was an entirely different coin worth next to nothing and reverses his credit card payment on you (for which there is a high probability the seller loses the case).
I’ve been selling on eBay now for 25+ years and there isn’t a snowball’s chance in h-ll I would ever consider selling a $50,000 coin under current eBay terms and conditions. If others want to take that chance, more power to them!!
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
This ^^^^ is exactly what I'm talking about!!! Not to say things don't move. Just sayin' it's not the right place, and sellers likely lose a lot more than they make up for with a lower seller fee. Due not only the the occasional fraud, but also to prospective buyers like me sticking to more reputable and established platforms like GC, HA and SB for high value items.
Actually, this is the OPPOSITE of what you are saying. You're saying that the BUYER wouldn't want to do the deal. Wondercoin is saying that the SELLER wouldn't want to do the deal.
Actually I already, very clearly, said I wouldn't do it on eBay on either side.
@NJCoin said:
There you go! As suspected, regardless of what the actual value is, eBay is NOT the venue for a profitable quick flip of something like this procured from some place like SB.
What venue would be? It's probably the place with the widest reach and publicity you can find. The ebay listings are very likely to come up in Google search results. How many dealers are active acquiring inventory on ebay or check ebay for coins to place with their customers? Probably tons. How many listings have been taken down and due to an off-site deal?
GC. HA. SB. With all due respect to @jmlanzaf, I'd never trust eBay with a 5 figure transaction, either as a buyer or a seller, given all the sketchy things that seem to take place there on a regular basis.
Obviously, YMMV. But SB is certainly not "the place with the widest reach and publicity you can find." And yet, to the great shock and amazement of several of our esteemed members, they managed to move 230 nearly identical items for the US Mint in a few short hours, grossing $8.23 Million.
If eBay was the ideal venue for these, why do you think the Mint didn't just dribble them out, either all at once or a few at time, on eBay? Probably because their net would have been a lot closer to the $6-12K each many of the experts here predicted if they had done so.
People thinking they were emulating what @jmlanzaf did with his comic book by scooping these up at $25-35K each on SB, thinking they were pulling off a "retail arbitrage," are about to learn the hard way that there is no such thing with such an expensive, widely publicized sale. People who wanted them knew just where to find them on December 12th.
Absolutely no one needs to pay a 50%+ markup to buy them a few weeks later at "the place with the widest reach and publicity you can find." Sure, eBay is very well known and widely available to anyone with an internet connection. So is Walmart, but Walmart is not the place most people think of when thinking of making mid 5 figure purchases. Which is probably why most luxury consumer goods are not sold through them, despite their wide footprint in the US.
Regardless of your preferences, lots of 5 figure coins sell on eBay all the time.
Understood. Which is why I prefaced my post by saying "with all due respect" to you.
If that holds true in this case, the seller soliciting @Goldbully should be getting slammed with acceptances, given how modestly they are now pricing their offer above the highest result achieved in the SB auction, after taking into account their seller fees and the fact that the Mint will never be auctioning 230 of these at one time and one place ever again. Since lots of 5 figure coins sell on eBay all the time.
I'm not sure that's the right price. Failure to have an offer accepted is usually about the price not the fact that the coin is on eBay... at any $ value.
Of course. Thanks for stating the obvious. The fact is that the seller paid $26K for the coin at SB, and will probably be lucky to get that, after fees, on eBay, while other 69s went for more at SB.
You do love to argue, and I am always thrilled to engage. If eBay was the right venue for items like this, there would be no GC, let alone HA or SB. It's ALWAYS about price. If you can get a higher price on one venue versus another, that's what makes it about the venue.
You can, should and will do you. Me too. I happen to think eBay is too sketchy to trust 5 figure transactions to, whereas I don't feel the same way about GC, HA or SB.
While there is obviously a market on eBay for expensive items, I doubt that I am alone in my feelings. If true, that makes eBay a less than ideal venue for things like this. Which is but one reason the retail arbitrageurs are having a difficult time with these.
My guess is if the seller asked $33,000 or $34,000 BIN, they would sell it on eBay just fine and make a nice profit.
The eBay fees are significantly lower than all the other venues that you mention, especially with a store. The total selling price at auction might be higher elsewhere, but the net to the seller after fees may not be any better at all.
JM keeps reminding you that eBay fees are actually quite low and the current problem for the arbitrageurs is not the venue, but their high asking prices and I agree with him.
Which is all well and good. My point is simply that, as a buyer of something this expensive, I'd be far more comfortable dealing with a reputable auction house than with whoever is on the other side of an eBay transaction. Same thing as a seller.
Now, obviously, people can and do engage in high dollar value transactions on eBay. I just don't think it's the right place for something like this, even if your fees as a seller are lower.
You usually get what you pay for. Sellers desperately reaching out to prospective buyers only proves my point. The Mint had no problem moving 230 units in less than 3 hours. This seller can't move one in how many days and counting now?
I reach out to prospective buyers every day. So does Heritage, Stacks, GC and just about every major coin seller. It's about sales not desperation.
If you say so. I've never received a message from you, and communications I've received from the major auction houses have been solicitations to give them consignments, not to buy, so I don't know for sure whether or not your or their communications are "desperate." But I do know that this one is:
You are clearly not an active buyer. I get emails from Heritage, Stacks and GC every week showing me coins that i "might be interested in".
I can't send random people offers their eBay but I can send offers to people watching my coins or, sometimes, looking at my coins. And I do.
Here's this week's "desperate offers"
Great!! The "desperate offers" you show as examples are merely offers, not "desperate" ones.
OTOH, the offer @Goldbully posted does indeed smack of desperation. At least to me.
"I'm making this offer once." 🤣🤣🤣
"Otherwise I'm just leaving it up indefinitely." 🤣🤣🤣
"I don't know if you'll see a lower offer as low than this." 🤣🤣🤣
When I read it, it reminded me of Cleavon Little's threats in Blazing Saddles to kill himself if the crowd threatening him didn't back off.
"I'm only going to make this terrific offer once, and, if no one accepts it, I'm going to keep trying to sell the coin until someone buys it. Maybe at a lower price, maybe not." 🤣🤣🤣
Very compelling, and, at least to me, smacking of foolish desperation in an attempt to create a sense of urgency to give the seller a 50% premium to what they paid for a $26K coin two long weeks ago. Because it's one of only 230, and if you don't act NOW, you might never again have the opportunity to give them a score. 🤣🤣🤣
Compare it to whatever normal offers you want. This is a desperate one. If you can't bring yourself to ever agree with me, once again we'll just have to agree to disagree. Merry Christmas!!!
On their face, the statements from the seller project strength and strong hands. Any desperation is concocted in your head, but that is a trend with you. Had I bought one to keep, I still may have thrown it up on ebay for a few weeks just to see if I could make quick profit so that could be what these other sellers are doing too. Except coinaddicts and some other who are known dealer/flippers.
Agree to disagree. Strength is just leaving the listing up, without saying anything or reaching out to anyone with a 15% discount and an admonition that it's a one time only offer, and to act now before it's too late.
Weakness is listing it right away, at a stupid premium, and then dropping the price almost instantly, but for a limited time only, with the caveat that "I don't know if you'll see a lower offer as low than this." Because I'm reasonably sure a 69 will become available at some point in the future for far less than $38,250.
Asking for the moon and being willing to settle for less is not, in my mind, a sign of strength. Reaching out to anyone who looked at the listing with stupid threats about what they are going to with the coin if it is not sold at the "one time only offer," comparisons to the most expensive example sold at auction (at a 30% premium to the purchase price of the item being offered), and then insisting how a 12.5% premium to the most expensive one (and a 50% premium to the purchase price of the coin actually being offered) is a great deal, because the seller has inflated, fictitious selling costs, is to me an extreme sign of weakness, desperation and plain old foolishness.
As if someone with the means and desire to drop $40K+ one a coin like this lacks any common sense or general awareness of the market. The seller wants to get out at a profit now, out of fear @coiner might be right. The fact that they are being a pig while trying to do so is not a sign of strength.
Only stupidity. And weakness. Because, as in real estate, pricing something unrealistically high, and then being forced to drop the price as the listing ages, is absolutely a bad strategy, and a sign of weakness and distress that typically only causes prospective buyers to await further price drops, rather than inducing the desired call to action before the item disappears forever.
YMMV, but the threat to leave the listing up indefinitely if the offer was not accepted was an empty threat that would only hurt the seller. Just like Sheriff Bart in Blazing Saddles.
A "desperate" offer would be open to negotiation or closer to break even. There is nothing desperate about making an offer to an INTERESTED party at $12000 over purchase price.
If you say so. Exploding offers with a threat to keep trying to sell the item if it does not sell smells very desperate to me. The fact that the seller is being a piggie while doing it does not make it any less desperate. Just less likely to result in a sale.
Listing at $45K was clearly a mistake. Dropping that by 15% in a matter of days, while still representing a significant profit (assuming any sucker bites), reeks of desperation. As will the next price drop when it inevitably comes, because this seller clearly is not strong, and is not willing to sit and wait for the market to come to them.
It is the significant, quick price drop, plus the tone and language used in the offer, that makes it desperate in my eyes. You are just focusing on the price, and the fact that the seller has not yet accepted reality, to conclude that they are not desperate.
"Not desperate" to me would mean leaving the listing as-is, or pulling it altogether if you cannot get your price. Not big price drops accompanied by explosive language.
To me, that reeks of desperation. Albeit desperation to make a 45% score. I'm not sure why you apparently believe unreasonable optimism with respect to pricing is mutually exclusive with desperation to make a sale, because it is not.
As evidenced, not by the fact that follow-up offers were made, but the language embodied in those offers. Have you ever used such language in an attempt to provoke a sale? If not, why not? Because it would be more likely to provoke snickers than a sale, as is the case here? And maybe because it would reek of desperation, which us to see. So, desperate
🙄
Really? You think the offer was exclusive to @Goldbully, and wasn't extended to everyone who clicked on the listing, or at least added it to a watchlist?
If so, why does eBay excitedly announce "A few other interested buyers also received this offer -- it won't last long. Hurry and take advantage right away!" at the top of the offer "Because you showed interest in this item, the seller sent you this private offer."?
That's not how offers work. It very well could have gone to more people, but it is not automatically sent to all viewers. You have a tendency to just fill in the blanks in your knowledge. As a data point, I had a comic with 180 views and a dozen watchers and when I sent an offer, it only went to 7 people. I'm not sure what the algorithm is, but we don't know how many people got it.
Edited to add: By the way, the offer always pretends multiple people got it even if i only send it to one person. They want you to think that you have to grab it before someone else does.
Thanks for filling in a few blanks for me. I do appreciate it.
You did not, however, answer my question regarding the language you use in your offers, and how it compares to what @Goldbully received.
Also, if you want to make a sale, why would you restrict how many people receive your offer? Because you're willing to discount for some folks, but not others, because their money is less green? 🤣
I don't restrict the offer. I don't even know who I'm sending it to. EBay restricts to whom I can send the offers.
By the way, I've been watching that auction for almost a day and have not received any offers.
I generally don't add much in the way of text to the offers because I send hundreds of offers and 95% of them don't result in a sale so it isn't worth the time. I did send an offer with a recent comp this week to someone who then bought the 24,000 comic I mentioned earlier, but that is unusual for me.
@MsMorrisine said:
are speculative dealers getting desperate yet?
@MsMorrisine said:
are speculative dealers getting desperate yet?
Very highly doubt it was a professional dealer. Given everything about the listing, and the subsequent, desperate looking offer, it appears to be more like an amateur flipper who took a shot and is getting nervous. Maybe because they borrowed to finance the purchase and have a payment coming due.
As I've said a few times now, it is highly unlikely dealers bought these on spec at the prices they went for. Any who did surely knew what they were in for, and would not be getting desperate after two weeks because they couldn't flip for a 50-100% profit.
Does this eBay seller with the FH Au w/privy coin think his PCGS graded PR69DCAM is the 'ugly stepsister' to the PR70DCAM and could lose it's value in the next few months? I can see those 45 owners of 69's developing a fear that they may be first in line to lose market value compared to the 185 PR70DCAM owners. Or, I could be totally wrong and both 69's and 70's continue to gather steam.
Of interest here is a new eBay listing for Coin #14 PR70DCAM FH Au w/Privy BIN: $99,995.
Edited to add: Coin #14 sold for $38,000 at SB auction..................that's a whopping $61,995 profit 'they' are asking for.
Looking forward to @NJCoin thoughts on this new eBay listing......yep, eBay!
@wondercoin said:
‘’My guess is if the seller asked $33,000 or $34,000 BIN, they would sell it on eBay just fine and make a nice profit.’’
What’s the profit % when the “2” rated buyer (hypothetically) claims he opened the box and inside was an entirely different coin worth next to nothing and reverses his credit card payment on you (for which there is a high probability the seller loses the case).
I’ve been selling on eBay now for 25+ years and there isn’t a snowball’s chance in h-ll I would ever consider selling a $50,000 coin under current eBay terms and conditions. If others want to take that chance, more power to them!!
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
This ^^^^ is exactly what I'm talking about!!! Not to say things don't move. Just sayin' it's not the right place, and sellers likely lose a lot more than they make up for with a lower seller fee. Due not only the the occasional fraud, but also to prospective buyers like me sticking to more reputable and established platforms like GC, HA and SB for high value items.
Actually, this is the OPPOSITE of what you are saying. You're saying that the BUYER wouldn't want to do the deal. Wondercoin is saying that the SELLER wouldn't want to do the deal.
Actually I already, very clearly, said I wouldn't do it on eBay on either side.
@NJCoin said:
There you go! As suspected, regardless of what the actual value is, eBay is NOT the venue for a profitable quick flip of something like this procured from some place like SB.
What venue would be? It's probably the place with the widest reach and publicity you can find. The ebay listings are very likely to come up in Google search results. How many dealers are active acquiring inventory on ebay or check ebay for coins to place with their customers? Probably tons. How many listings have been taken down and due to an off-site deal?
GC. HA. SB. With all due respect to @jmlanzaf, I'd never trust eBay with a 5 figure transaction, either as a buyer or a seller, given all the sketchy things that seem to take place there on a regular basis.
Obviously, YMMV. But SB is certainly not "the place with the widest reach and publicity you can find." And yet, to the great shock and amazement of several of our esteemed members, they managed to move 230 nearly identical items for the US Mint in a few short hours, grossing $8.23 Million.
If eBay was the ideal venue for these, why do you think the Mint didn't just dribble them out, either all at once or a few at time, on eBay? Probably because their net would have been a lot closer to the $6-12K each many of the experts here predicted if they had done so.
People thinking they were emulating what @jmlanzaf did with his comic book by scooping these up at $25-35K each on SB, thinking they were pulling off a "retail arbitrage," are about to learn the hard way that there is no such thing with such an expensive, widely publicized sale. People who wanted them knew just where to find them on December 12th.
Absolutely no one needs to pay a 50%+ markup to buy them a few weeks later at "the place with the widest reach and publicity you can find." Sure, eBay is very well known and widely available to anyone with an internet connection. So is Walmart, but Walmart is not the place most people think of when thinking of making mid 5 figure purchases. Which is probably why most luxury consumer goods are not sold through them, despite their wide footprint in the US.
Regardless of your preferences, lots of 5 figure coins sell on eBay all the time.
Understood. Which is why I prefaced my post by saying "with all due respect" to you.
If that holds true in this case, the seller soliciting @Goldbully should be getting slammed with acceptances, given how modestly they are now pricing their offer above the highest result achieved in the SB auction, after taking into account their seller fees and the fact that the Mint will never be auctioning 230 of these at one time and one place ever again. Since lots of 5 figure coins sell on eBay all the time.
I'm not sure that's the right price. Failure to have an offer accepted is usually about the price not the fact that the coin is on eBay... at any $ value.
Of course. Thanks for stating the obvious. The fact is that the seller paid $26K for the coin at SB, and will probably be lucky to get that, after fees, on eBay, while other 69s went for more at SB.
You do love to argue, and I am always thrilled to engage. If eBay was the right venue for items like this, there would be no GC, let alone HA or SB. It's ALWAYS about price. If you can get a higher price on one venue versus another, that's what makes it about the venue.
You can, should and will do you. Me too. I happen to think eBay is too sketchy to trust 5 figure transactions to, whereas I don't feel the same way about GC, HA or SB.
While there is obviously a market on eBay for expensive items, I doubt that I am alone in my feelings. If true, that makes eBay a less than ideal venue for things like this. Which is but one reason the retail arbitrageurs are having a difficult time with these.
My guess is if the seller asked $33,000 or $34,000 BIN, they would sell it on eBay just fine and make a nice profit.
The eBay fees are significantly lower than all the other venues that you mention, especially with a store. The total selling price at auction might be higher elsewhere, but the net to the seller after fees may not be any better at all.
JM keeps reminding you that eBay fees are actually quite low and the current problem for the arbitrageurs is not the venue, but their high asking prices and I agree with him.
Which is all well and good. My point is simply that, as a buyer of something this expensive, I'd be far more comfortable dealing with a reputable auction house than with whoever is on the other side of an eBay transaction. Same thing as a seller.
Now, obviously, people can and do engage in high dollar value transactions on eBay. I just don't think it's the right place for something like this, even if your fees as a seller are lower.
You usually get what you pay for. Sellers desperately reaching out to prospective buyers only proves my point. The Mint had no problem moving 230 units in less than 3 hours. This seller can't move one in how many days and counting now?
I reach out to prospective buyers every day. So does Heritage, Stacks, GC and just about every major coin seller. It's about sales not desperation.
If you say so. I've never received a message from you, and communications I've received from the major auction houses have been solicitations to give them consignments, not to buy, so I don't know for sure whether or not your or their communications are "desperate." But I do know that this one is:
You are clearly not an active buyer. I get emails from Heritage, Stacks and GC every week showing me coins that i "might be interested in".
I can't send random people offers their eBay but I can send offers to people watching my coins or, sometimes, looking at my coins. And I do.
Here's this week's "desperate offers"
Great!! The "desperate offers" you show as examples are merely offers, not "desperate" ones.
OTOH, the offer @Goldbully posted does indeed smack of desperation. At least to me.
"I'm making this offer once." 🤣🤣🤣
"Otherwise I'm just leaving it up indefinitely." 🤣🤣🤣
"I don't know if you'll see a lower offer as low than this." 🤣🤣🤣
When I read it, it reminded me of Cleavon Little's threats in Blazing Saddles to kill himself if the crowd threatening him didn't back off.
"I'm only going to make this terrific offer once, and, if no one accepts it, I'm going to keep trying to sell the coin until someone buys it. Maybe at a lower price, maybe not." 🤣🤣🤣
Very compelling, and, at least to me, smacking of foolish desperation in an attempt to create a sense of urgency to give the seller a 50% premium to what they paid for a $26K coin two long weeks ago. Because it's one of only 230, and if you don't act NOW, you might never again have the opportunity to give them a score. 🤣🤣🤣
Compare it to whatever normal offers you want. This is a desperate one. If you can't bring yourself to ever agree with me, once again we'll just have to agree to disagree. Merry Christmas!!!
On their face, the statements from the seller project strength and strong hands. Any desperation is concocted in your head, but that is a trend with you. Had I bought one to keep, I still may have thrown it up on ebay for a few weeks just to see if I could make quick profit so that could be what these other sellers are doing too. Except coinaddicts and some other who are known dealer/flippers.
Agree to disagree. Strength is just leaving the listing up, without saying anything or reaching out to anyone with a 15% discount and an admonition that it's a one time only offer, and to act now before it's too late.
Weakness is listing it right away, at a stupid premium, and then dropping the price almost instantly, but for a limited time only, with the caveat that "I don't know if you'll see a lower offer as low than this." Because I'm reasonably sure a 69 will become available at some point in the future for far less than $38,250.
Asking for the moon and being willing to settle for less is not, in my mind, a sign of strength. Reaching out to anyone who looked at the listing with stupid threats about what they are going to with the coin if it is not sold at the "one time only offer," comparisons to the most expensive example sold at auction (at a 30% premium to the purchase price of the item being offered), and then insisting how a 12.5% premium to the most expensive one (and a 50% premium to the purchase price of the coin actually being offered) is a great deal, because the seller has inflated, fictitious selling costs, is to me an extreme sign of weakness, desperation and plain old foolishness.
As if someone with the means and desire to drop $40K+ one a coin like this lacks any common sense or general awareness of the market. The seller wants to get out at a profit now, out of fear @coiner might be right. The fact that they are being a pig while trying to do so is not a sign of strength.
Only stupidity. And weakness. Because, as in real estate, pricing something unrealistically high, and then being forced to drop the price as the listing ages, is absolutely a bad strategy, and a sign of weakness and distress that typically only causes prospective buyers to await further price drops, rather than inducing the desired call to action before the item disappears forever.
YMMV, but the threat to leave the listing up indefinitely if the offer was not accepted was an empty threat that would only hurt the seller. Just like Sheriff Bart in Blazing Saddles.
A "desperate" offer would be open to negotiation or closer to break even. There is nothing desperate about making an offer to an INTERESTED party at $12000 over purchase price.
If you say so. Exploding offers with a threat to keep trying to sell the item if it does not sell smells very desperate to me. The fact that the seller is being a piggie while doing it does not make it any less desperate. Just less likely to result in a sale.
Listing at $45K was clearly a mistake. Dropping that by 15% in a matter of days, while still representing a significant profit (assuming any sucker bites), reeks of desperation. As will the next price drop when it inevitably comes, because this seller clearly is not strong, and is not willing to sit and wait for the market to come to them.
It is the significant, quick price drop, plus the tone and language used in the offer, that makes it desperate in my eyes. You are just focusing on the price, and the fact that the seller has not yet accepted reality, to conclude that they are not desperate.
"Not desperate" to me would mean leaving the listing as-is, or pulling it altogether if you cannot get your price. Not big price drops accompanied by explosive language.
To me, that reeks of desperation. Albeit desperation to make a 45% score. I'm not sure why you apparently believe unreasonable optimism with respect to pricing is mutually exclusive with desperation to make a sale, because it is not.
As evidenced, not by the fact that follow-up offers were made, but the language embodied in those offers. Have you ever used such language in an attempt to provoke a sale? If not, why not? Because it would be more likely to provoke snickers than a sale, as is the case here? And maybe because it would reek of desperation, which us to see. So, desperate
🙄
Really? You think the offer was exclusive to @Goldbully, and wasn't extended to everyone who clicked on the listing, or at least added it to a watchlist?
If so, why does eBay excitedly announce "A few other interested buyers also received this offer -- it won't last long. Hurry and take advantage right away!" at the top of the offer "Because you showed interest in this item, the seller sent you this private offer."?
That's not how offers work. It very well could have gone to more people, but it is not automatically sent to all viewers. You have a tendency to just fill in the blanks in your knowledge. As a data point, I had a comic with 180 views and a dozen watchers and when I sent an offer, it only went to 7 people. I'm not sure what the algorithm is, but we don't know how many people got it.
Edited to add: By the way, the offer always pretends multiple people got it even if i only send it to one person. They want you to think that you have to grab it before someone else does.
Thanks for filling in a few blanks for me. I do appreciate it.
You did not, however, answer my question regarding the language you use in your offers, and how it compares to what @Goldbully received.
Also, if you want to make a sale, why would you restrict how many people receive your offer? Because you're willing to discount for some folks, but not others, because their money is less green? 🤣
I don't restrict the offer. I don't even know who I'm sending it to. EBay restricts to whom I can send the offers.
By the way, I've been watching that auction for almost a day and have not received any offers.
I generally don't add much in the way of text to the offers because I send hundreds of offers and 95% of them don't result in a sale so it isn't worth the time. I did send an offer with a recent comp this week to someone who then bought the 24,000 comic I mentioned earlier, but that is unusual for me.
Which comic was it?
Action #2 CBCS 9.2 restored. Professionally restored extensively, but it looked brand new. Gorgeous book.
@Goldbully said:
Does this eBay seller with the FH Au w/privy coin think his PCGS graded PR69DCAM is the 'ugly stepsister' to the PR70DCAM and could lose it's value in the next few months? I can see those 45 owners of 69's developing a fear that they may be first in line to lose market value compared to the 185 PR70DCAM owners. Or, I could be totally wrong and both 69's and 70's continue to gather steam.
Of interest here is a new eBay listing for Coin #14 PR70DCAM FH Au w/Privy BIN: $99,995.
Edited to add: Coin #14 sold for $38,000 at SB auction..................that's a whopping $61,995 profit 'they' are asking for.
Looking forward to @NJCoin thoughts on this new eBay listing......yep, eBay!
No thoughts, other than it's an unserious fantasy listing, like many others on eBay. Just fishing to see if a sucker can be hooked.
And, it would be useful if eBay was not rife with shill bidding and other forms of fraud, and if offers accepted always disclosed actual purchase prices. They don't.
But please, feel free to believe anything you want. I believed in Santa Claus until I was 6 or 7.
@Goldminers said:
The #156 sold for $26,000. The highest 69 sold for $34,000. Even with the discount, they are still asking for a >$10,000 profit. That would be a very decent flip IMO.
Using averages or highs...can someone give us the "price" for a 70 PRDCAM vs. a 69 PRDCAM.
Can be tough with all the back-and-forth keeping track. Thanks !
@jmlanzaf said:
FWIW my total ebay fees on a $38,000 coin are $1100. No better venue.
Then why am I always being told that coins and commemoratives that I see where they are asking 30-100% over market is because of all the fees and charges they have to pay ?
Your fees are 3%. I WISH I was seeing that. Maybe because I'm dealing in the sub-$1,000 arena ?
This bidding and the actual prices reminds me of the initial buying frenzy in 1989/90 for the ZR-1 Corvette, which was a high-performance option on American's sports car at a time when horsepower options for U.S. cars were severely lacking.
I remember the $60,000 being offered for $90,000 and up in The New York Times. Within a year or so....as production increased...the price fell. Obviously, they won't be making more of these Flowing Hairs....but I think the buyers right now are "weak hands" and the price will have to fall to reach more "strong hands."
@NJCoin said:
Because it's one of only 230, and if you don't act NOW, you might never again have the opportunity to give them a >score.
Do we know -- or do you experts have a guestimate -- on how many of the 230 privvy's will be 70's and the rest 69's (I assume no 68's) ?
Yes, we know, because each and every lot included the grade in the description. The vast majority were 70s. I don't remember the exact number, but I think 40-something were 69s, with the rest 70s.
@Goldminers said:
The #156 sold for $26,000. The highest 69 sold for $34,000. Even with the discount, they are still asking for a >$10,000 profit. That would be a very decent flip IMO.
Using averages or highs...can someone give us the "price" for a 70 PRDCAM vs. a 69 PRDCAM.
Can be tough with all the back-and-forth keeping track. Thanks !
You can Google it, and with a little searching find the SB pages with the results for every lot. Basically, given the relatively high price for all of them, and the scarcity of 69s as compared to 70s, there was not a huge price difference between the 2. Maybe around $5K. Prices were mid $20K to mid $30K for the 69s, and low to mid $30K for most of the 70s.
@GoldFinger1969 said: This bidding and the actual prices reminds me of the initial buying frenzy in 1989/90 for the ZR-1 Corvette, which was a high-performance option on American's sports car at a time when horsepower options for U.S. cars were severely lacking.
I remember the $60,000 being offered for $90,000 and up in The New York Times. Within a year or so....as production increased...the price fell. Obviously, they won't be making more of these Flowing Hairs....but I think the buyers right now are "weak hands" and the price will have to fall to reach more "strong hands."
JMHO.
Okay, but your feeling is based on absolutely nothing if it's based on what happened with a Corvette 35 years ago. Why on earth would you think original buyers are weak hands, with strong hands standing by to catch the falling knife?
Because the price seems high to you? To me, it looks like exactly the opposite. That people paid up to get one of 230, and they ARE the strong hands. @jmlanzaf and @coiner represented the thinking of would-be weak hand flippers, and bailed when the air got too thin during the auction.
Thinking weak hands bid these up during the auction, in the hope of a quick flip, is wishful thinking. No telling where these will be years from now, since that will depend on sustained interest if and when original owners choose to liquidate.
But, for now, the price is the price. People looking for scores on eBay will likely be disappointed, but only a small handful of the 230 have been listed there.
People looking to scoop them up at a fraction of the SB auction prices will also be disappointed, because they can't believe anyone would pay what they sold for, other than flippers who are now going to be shaken out. There is simply no evidence that is the case, other than the disbelief of what people were willing to pay to obtain one of 230 modern Mint issues.
Bottom line -- no one is making 50% on what was full retail pricing at the auction. Similarly, the price is not collapsing soon after the auction, due to a massive onslaught of buyer's remorse, or because a bunch of dopes bid the majority of them up against each other with a view towards resale, at a premium to the massive premium paid at auction, with no actual retail demand for them at anything near where 230 were scooped up in less than 3 hours.
That is as much fantasy as the person listing one on eBay for $100K.
@MsMorrisine said:
doesn't goldbully have the stats on these? i'll await his input
Here are the 45 PR69DCM privy FH Au coins from Stack Bowers
$26k to a high of $34k(#188) for PR69DCAM
The person that bought lot #188 has to be wondering why he/she pushed that bid button so high.
@NJCoin was correct in stating......"You can Google it, and with a little searching find the SB pages with the results for every lot. Basically, given the relatively high price for all of them, and the scarcity of 69s as compared to 70s, there was not a huge price difference between the 2. Maybe around $5K. Prices were mid $20K to mid $30K for the 69s, and low to mid $30K for most of the 70s."
Of the 185 PR70DCAM's, most were mid $30k
Lot #6 to lot #36, the trend was $38k to $41k
Lot #4 and lot #5 went for $46k
After lot #36($38k) the trend was $33k to $36K
Lots of $33k's and $34k's to be had at that point.
The low 70 was $32k for #162.
For some reason lot #100 went for $38k
Once the auction got to #214 the trend was $38k and up.
@jmlanzaf said:
FWIW my total ebay fees on a $38,000 coin are $1100. No better venue.
Then why am I always being told that coins and commemoratives that I see where they are asking 30-100% over market is because of all the fees and charges they have to pay ?
Your fees are 3%. I WISH I was seeing that. Maybe because I'm dealing in the sub-$1,000 arena ?
The fees are tiered and get much cheaper above $4000 (with store), $2500 for comic nokks. They are published if you want to look them up. Or just use the calculator linked below.
For expensive items, the ebay fees including payment processing are less than PayPal fees alone.
People are ignorant and complain about eBay fees all the time. Yet they have the lowest fee structure of any major venue.
@jmlanzaf said:
FWIW my total ebay fees on a $38,000 coin are $1100. No better venue.
Then why am I always being told that coins and commemoratives that I see where they are asking 30-100% over market is because of all the fees and charges they have to pay ?
Your fees are 3%. I WISH I was seeing that. Maybe because I'm dealing in the sub-$1,000 arena ?
The fees are tiered and get much cheaper above $4000. They are published if you want to look them up. Or just use this calculator.
People are ignorant and complain about eBay fees all the time. Yet they have the lowest fee structure of any major venue.
One of the few times I fully agree with your comment without caveat, I don't know how I feel being on the bay defense team though, not a huge fan of the Chewbacca defense...
@jmlanzaf said:
FWIW my total ebay fees on a $38,000 coin are $1100. No better venue.
Then why am I always being told that coins and commemoratives that I see where they are asking 30-100% over market is because of all the fees and charges they have to pay ?
Your fees are 3%. I WISH I was seeing that. Maybe because I'm dealing in the sub-$1,000 arena ?
The fees are tiered and get much cheaper above $4000. They are published if you want to look them up. Or just use this calculator.
People are ignorant and complain about eBay fees all the time. Yet they have the lowest fee structure of any major venue.
One of the few times I fully agree with your comment without caveat, I don't know how I feel being on the bay defense team though, not a huge fan of the Chewbacca defense...
Lol. Thanks. I'm glad this is one of the few times you are completely correct without a caveat. I'm kidding, but are you signaling your normal disagreement with me for the benefit of the forum or just for me? 😉
Action #2 CBCS 9.2 restored. Professionally restored extensively, but it looked brand new. Gorgeous book.
That's impressive! 2nd appearance of Superman-very cool.
Yes. I really liked it. Arguably my favorite comic in inventory. Scarce. Unfortunately, Superman want on the cover or it would be a 6 figure book even restored
@MsMorrisine said:
doesn't goldbully have the stats on these? i'll await his input
Here are the 45 PR69DCM privy FH Au coins from Stack Bowers
$26k to a high of $34k(#188) for PR69DCAM
The person that bought lot #188 has to be wondering why he/she pushed that bid button so high.
@NJCoin was correct in stating......"You can Google it, and with a little searching find the SB pages with the results for every lot. Basically, given the relatively high price for all of them, and the scarcity of 69s as compared to 70s, there was not a huge price difference between the 2. Maybe around $5K. Prices were mid $20K to mid $30K for the 69s, and low to mid $30K for most of the 70s."
Of the 185 PR70DCAM's, most were mid $30k
Lot #6 to lot #36, the trend was $38k to $41k
Lot #4 and lot #5 went for $46k
After lot #36($38k) the trend was $33k to $36K
Lots of $33k's and $34k's to be had at that point.
The low 70 was $32k for #162.
For some reason lot #100 went for $38k
Once the auction got to #214 the trend was $38k and up.
@MsMorrisine said:
are speculative dealers getting desperate yet?
We will see that within 3-6 months.
Unlike a comment previously about well to do collectors - there are many in the group of buyers that are weak-hands and are buying on credit. The bills will start to roll in and the hands will get weaker.
Good luck when the NEXT gimmic is floated by the US Mint - maybe this time for 150 coins - or 100 - the value of these will diminish.
Not part of a popular series of gold coins - only a commemorative.
@GoldFinger1969 said: But NJCoin, you are saying you think the price will not hold so isn't that implying "weak hands" have the coins right now ?
Certainly, that seller who is offering a 15% discount isn't strong hands.
Not saying that at all! In fact, I explicitly have said, multiple times, that I DO think the price will hold in the short and intermediate term.
230 were sold. At least a few probably went to dummies looking for a quick flip.. THEY are going to be disappointed.
That said, a 15% discount on a 73% markup is hardly an indication that the price isn't going to hold. It's only an indication that the seller was clueless in buying for a flip, in initial pricing, and now looks desperate to sell.
@MsMorrisine said:
are speculative dealers getting desperate yet?
We will see that within 3-6 months.
Unlike a comment previously about well to do collectors - there are many in the group of buyers that are weak-hands and are buying on credit. The bills will start to roll in and the hands will get weaker.
Sure. Except these are the same buyers you said did not exist in the first place. Spending money you said did not exist, and could not possibly be gathered at one time in one place to support pricing anywhere near what was actually realized.
Now, you are in their bank accounts and know their motives in paying up. You might turn out to be right, but there is nothing in the evidence to date to suggest it.
It's just unfounded speculation based on what you think the coins should be worth. 2-6 years is another story, but there is no reason to think 3-6 months will be any different than December 12th.
The coins all sold for pretty much full retail on December 12th, so there is no reason to think anyone is going to be able to score a profitable flip in the short term. Maybe a few thousand, maybe not, depending on what they paid and how and to who they are selling.
OTOH, 230 all sold for good money. Far more than you thought possible. No reason to think another 20-30 couldn't have been sold at similar pricing.
Which means the few that come up for sale in the next few months, either due to buyer's remorse or would-be flippers realizing there is no flip and throwing in the towel, should all be able to be sold for prices similar to the original prices. The person who bought a 69 at $34K might take a small hit, while the people who paid $25-27K might make a dollar or two. But nothing major in either direction.
Certainly nothing close to what you think. Again, maybe in a few years if there is no future interest. But not now. Now there is still interest, and pricing has been established.
Certainly nothing close to what you think. Again, maybe in a few years if there is no future interest. But not now. Now there is still interest, and pricing has been established.
Can I sell you some Tulips?
Not in a few years. How about 6 months for serious price adjustments downward. You WILL be as SURPRISED as everyone was with the eye popping bids on these coins - the hit they will take.
The PR70's will settle less than the V75 Gold Eagle 70's.
The PR69's price will collapse. Try to get $13k for one of those in a year.
@jmlanzaf said:
FWIW my total ebay fees on a $38,000 coin are $1100. No better venue.
Then why am I always being told that coins and commemoratives that I see where they are asking 30-100% over market is because of all the fees and charges they have to pay ?
Your fees are 3%. I WISH I was seeing that. Maybe because I'm dealing in the sub-$1,000 arena ?
The fees are tiered and get much cheaper above $4000. They are published if you want to look them up. Or just use this calculator.
People are ignorant and complain about eBay fees all the time. Yet they have the lowest fee structure of any major venue.
One of the few times I fully agree with your comment without caveat, I don't know how I feel being on the bay defense team though, not a huge fan of the Chewbacca defense...
It's interesting to calculate the fee that eBay would retain when a buyer uses a 2% cashback credit card.
On a $40,000 purchase eBay would end up with 1%. $400.
@coiner said:
The issue with the modern market now is "What is the latest flavor"
When prices used to settle in and hold for a good period of time---now everything new is old news within 30-60 days.
And on to the next rare widget.
I hope you are correct. That means there'll be some bargains coming up in a few months for those of us who, so far, haven't been able to afford a gold FH, or even a silver FH with privy!
@coiner said:
The issue with the modern market now is "What is the latest flavor"
When prices used to settle in and hold for a good period of time---now everything new is old news within 30-60 days.
And on to the next rare widget.
I hope you are correct. That means there'll be some bargains coming up in a few months for those of us who, so far, haven't been able to afford a gold FH, or even a silver FH with privy!
He's not correct. He's in denial. Whatever happens, you are never going to find "some bargains" on items like this.
They are simply not meant for people like us. Period. Whining about it, railing against it, and denying what has happened after the market has spoken is not going to change anything.
There are only 230 of them, and they each contain around $2600-2700 worth of gold. There will be no bargains, regardless of whether they hold their value or go up or down from here.
@coiner was wrong about them never selling for anything close to V75 AGEs at auction because they are not part of a continuing series. That war has now been fought and lost.
Going forward, if the FH gold privy sinks in value, it is likely the V75 will sink right along with it, because it will be indicative of people losing interest in artificial modern privy rarities. No reason for people to suddenly fall out of love with one coin while still coveting the other one. And people have not lost interest in the V75 since it was released in 2020. In spite of the fact that another "rare widget" was released two weeks ago.
230 FH gold privys are worth around 50% more than 1945 V75s. That seems a little low to me, based on the relative mintages, but it's the value set at auction of all 230 two weeks ago.
Because these things can only go so high. 1/8 the mintage cannot, and did not, imply 8x the value. Even so, it seems crazy to repeatedly say 50% higher for something 8x as rare is somehow way too high, because it's not part of a series. It's a tribute to a popular, classic design.
And again, arguments pro and con before the auction are one thing. Being in denial after the fact, because you were wrong, is quite another. The market has spoken.
It's not changing in 3 months or 6 months. It might never change. My advice is accept it and move on, rather than holding your breath waiting for a bargain there is honestly no reason to ever manifest.
If they do go down in the future, not in a few months, but in years, it will be because they lost value. They will not be bargains at lower prices, and they will always hold a very significant premium over intrinsic value.
Will there be counterfeits? I think so, first with silver medals and then with gold FH. But will there be fakes with privies?? Wouldn't the gold FH with privies be much harder to pass off, as they are all numbered...?
@Onastone said:
Will there be counterfeits? I think so, first with silver medals and then with gold FH. But will there be fakes with privies?? Wouldn't the gold FH with privies be much harder to pass off, as they are all numbered...?
A number on a COA is the easiest thing to counterfeit.
@Onastone said:
Will there be counterfeits? I think so, first with silver medals and then with gold FH. But will there be fakes with privies?? Wouldn't the gold FH with privies be much harder to pass off, as they are all numbered...?
The numbered labels IMO are of little additional value other than the first several and the last one. Some have even sent theirs for crossover to CACG for example, and I am not even sure the numbers were kept on the new slab labels. I have not seen one, but 10 are shown on their pop/graded website.
@coiner said:
The issue with the modern market now is "What is the latest flavor"
When prices used to settle in and hold for a good period of time---now everything new is old news within 30-60 days.
And on to the next rare widget.
I hope you are correct. That means there'll be some bargains coming up in a few months for those of us who, so far, haven't been able to afford a gold FH, or even a silver FH with privy!
He's not correct. He's in denial. Whatever happens, you are never going to find "some bargains" on items like this.
From the guy (NJCoin) who is wrong 99% of the time.
Hold tight, you will see a big drop in prices.
@NJCoin - why dont you poll some real dealers and see what the consensus is? I bet the majority would look for a big decline in price in the next 6 months. I bet it's probably around 85-90% leaning that way as well.
@coiner was wrong about them never selling for anything close to V75 AGEs at auction because they are not part of a continuing series. That war has now been fought and lost.
Going forward, if the FH gold privy sinks in value, it is likely the V75 will sink right along with it, because it will be indicative of people losing interest in artificial modern privy rarities. No reason for people to suddenly fall out of love with one coin while still coveting the other one. And people have not lost interest in the V75 since it was released in 2020. In spite of the fact that another "rare widget" was released two weeks ago.
230 FH gold privys are worth around 50% more than 1945 V75s. That seems a little low to me, based on the relative mintages, but it's the value set at auction of all 230 two weeks ago.
NJCoin - It would be nice if you actually had facts to back up your comments. Do you not know that the Flowing Hair Privy Gold is NOT part of a very popular continuing series like the V75? Do you not know that the Flowing Hair Gold is a once and done commemorative? Have you seen the price performance of Gold Commems as compared to those rarities in continuing series?
You try to base your theory on relative rarity, however, you have to look at demand for the item as well. There is FAR more demand for a V75 Gold than the Gold Flowing Hair Privey. You cant imply that it should be a multiple of the V75.
Im sure many dealers agree the prices realized at auction were way out of line with perceived value.
Prices will decline. The easy flip isnt going to happen with these. The prices are headed one way---DOWN.
I have nothing more to say. Im sure NjCoin will comment for another 30 pages and always will have to have the last word.
NJCoin - It would be nice if you actually had facts to back up your comments. Do you not know that the Flowing Hair Privy Gold is NOT part of a very popular continuing series like the V75? Do you not know that the Flowing Hair Gold is a once and done commemorative? Have you seen the price performance of Gold Commems as compared to those rarities in continuing series?
It is interesting that you bring up the commemoratives, because there is one coin that defies all the rest and it is the 2001 silver buffalo commemorative. Despite having a very high mintage, it has held value way above the similar ones at those high mintages due to the classic design. That coin brought in many "classic" collectors, and the flowing hair may be a similar situation. It brought in the deep pocket dealers who bought this with pocket change. 230 is not a lot of coins. There will not be a desperation sale, that many coins in the total landscape will probably mean only about a few of them will be for sale at any one time. Would one desperation sale revalue all of them? Not likely.
Since this is the only mint release that represents the first US dollar coin, it is not like the mint has a who slew better example to beat this one. Maybe a chain cent in gold, but if the mint had to do it over again this flowing hair should have been 1 1/2 ounce in gold to get the correct diameter, and do a chain cent in one ounce size.
@coiner said:
The issue with the modern market now is "What is the latest flavor"
When prices used to settle in and hold for a good period of time---now everything new is old news within 30-60 days.
And on to the next rare widget.
I hope you are correct. That means there'll be some bargains coming up in a few months for those of us who, so far, haven't been able to afford a gold FH, or even a silver FH with privy!
He's not correct. He's in denial. Whatever happens, you are never going to find "some bargains" on items like this.
From the guy (NJCoin) who is wrong 99% of the time.
Hold tight, you will see a big drop in prices.
@NJCoin - why dont you poll some real dealers and see what the consensus is? I bet the majority would look for a big decline in price in the next 6 months. I bet it's probably around 85-90% leaning that way as well.
Because I don't need to poll anyone to know what's going to happen, just like I didn't need to poll you, or whoever fed quotes to the Greysheet ahead of the SB auction.
You are presently denying reality, and just expressing your wishes. There is absolutely nothing external to support your views. No one is dumping anything anywhere at prices close to what they paid, so you have no basis to believe there will be an imminent "big drop in prices." No basis at all.
It really does not matter what you, or anyone else who wants to buy them at prices far below market, think about the present market. Show me. You were wrong before. Your rationale was wrong before. Nothing has changed.
The fact that it wasn't part of a series didn't matter. There was plenty of money to support bidding far above what you imagined. In one place. At one time.
There is no reason to believe that the people who paid up did so on credit, in anticipation of a quick flip, and will be shaken out shortly when the bill comes. This is nothing but wishful thinking and blind speculation on your part.
Come back when we begin to see verified sales at or below the SB auction prices. Until then, denying the election results is not going to change them.
@coiner was wrong about them never selling for anything close to V75 AGEs at auction because they are not part of a continuing series. That war has now been fought and lost.
Going forward, if the FH gold privy sinks in value, it is likely the V75 will sink right along with it, because it will be indicative of people losing interest in artificial modern privy rarities. No reason for people to suddenly fall out of love with one coin while still coveting the other one. And people have not lost interest in the V75 since it was released in 2020. In spite of the fact that another "rare widget" was released two weeks ago.
230 FH gold privys are worth around 50% more than 1945 V75s. That seems a little low to me, based on the relative mintages, but it's the value set at auction of all 230 two weeks ago.
NJCoin - It would be nice if you actually had facts to back up your comments. Do you not know that the Flowing Hair Privy Gold is NOT part of a very popular continuing series like the V75? Do you not know that the Flowing Hair Gold is a once and done commemorative? Have you seen the price performance of Gold Commems as compared to those rarities in continuing series?
You try to base your theory on relative rarity, however, you have to look at demand for the item as well. There is FAR more demand for a V75 Gold than the Gold Flowing Hair Privey. You cant imply that it should be a multiple of the V75.
Im sure many dealers agree the prices realized at auction were way out of line with perceived value.
Prices will decline. The easy flip isnt going to happen with these. The prices are headed one way---DOWN.
I have nothing more to say. Im sure NjCoin will comment for another 30 pages and always will have to have the last word.
I need not say more.
The actual facts I have are the actual auction results. Not woulda, coulda, shoulda based on what you, or anyone else, thinks should have happened based on feelings about the product.
Everyone who thinks prices are out of line is entitled to an opinion. If there was not sufficient demand to support the pricing achieved, it would not have been achieved, and you might have been right. No?
Repeatedly insisting the market is wrong is never a winning strategy. In the securities world, it's a great way to go broke, even if the market eventually gets to the level you think appropriate.
Whatever might happen in 5 or 10 years, insisting the market is wrong because you and "many dealers agree the prices realized at auction were way out of line with perceived value" does not make it so.
The market, by definition, is always right. That makes you the one who is wrong. Insisting it will change very soon, because it must, is based on nothing other than your inability to accept being wrong.
You like to say I am wrong 99% of the time, which is a gross exaggeration. But, if you keep saying the same incorrect thing over and over and over and over and over again, does that constitute being wrong once, or once for every time you repeat it? If it's the latter, your batting average now is far below mine. 😀
@coiner said:
Gross exaggeration? Just look back at your posts from a month ago insisting you knew it all.
You were wrong. Period.
Most of that was so last month, and pretty soon it will be last year. 🤣😂🤣
He is just entertainment. He makes soooo many predictions he is bound to get some right, eventually. But when he does he will be the guy that predicted it. And you can not take that away from him. Eventually he will get a few right after enough predictions.
How can anyone argue with someone that predicted multiple "things"?
Comments
Which comic was it?
are speculative dealers getting desperate yet?
Very highly doubt it was a professional dealer. Given everything about the listing, and the subsequent, desperate looking offer, it appears to be more like an amateur flipper who took a shot and is getting nervous. Maybe because they borrowed to finance the purchase and have a payment coming due.
As I've said a few times now, it is highly unlikely dealers bought these on spec at the prices they went for. Any who did surely knew what they were in for, and would not be getting desperate after two weeks because they couldn't flip for a 50-100% profit.
Does this eBay seller with the FH Au w/privy coin think his PCGS graded PR69DCAM is the 'ugly stepsister' to the PR70DCAM and could lose it's value in the next few months? I can see those 45 owners of 69's developing a fear that they may be first in line to lose market value compared to the 185 PR70DCAM owners. Or, I could be totally wrong and both 69's and 70's continue to gather steam.
Of interest here is a new eBay listing for Coin #14 PR70DCAM FH Au w/Privy BIN: $99,995.
eBay Link
Edited to add: Coin #14 sold for $38,000 at SB auction..................that's a whopping $61,995 profit 'they' are asking for.
Looking forward to @NJCoin thoughts on this new eBay listing......yep, eBay!
FYI - I believe this website accurately details the actual sales price on ebay
https://130point.com/sales/
Action #2 CBCS 9.2 restored. Professionally restored extensively, but it looked brand new. Gorgeous book.
In absolute terms compared to GC, SB, and HA....it pales in comparision to what I have seen.
As a % of all coins, it's also lower.
No thoughts, other than it's an unserious fantasy listing, like many others on eBay. Just fishing to see if a sucker can be hooked.
Sure it does. 🤣
And, it would be useful if eBay was not rife with shill bidding and other forms of fraud, and if offers accepted always disclosed actual purchase prices. They don't.
But please, feel free to believe anything you want. I believed in Santa Claus until I was 6 or 7.
So where does the PR69 DCAM settle ?
Do we know -- or do you experts have a guestimate -- on how many of the 230 privvy's will be 70's and the rest 69's (I assume no 68's) ?
Using averages or highs...can someone give us the "price" for a 70 PRDCAM vs. a 69 PRDCAM.
Can be tough with all the back-and-forth keeping track. Thanks !
Then why am I always being told that coins and commemoratives that I see where they are asking 30-100% over market is because of all the fees and charges they have to pay ?
Your fees are 3%. I WISH I was seeing that. Maybe because I'm dealing in the sub-$1,000 arena ?
This bidding and the actual prices reminds me of the initial buying frenzy in 1989/90 for the ZR-1 Corvette, which was a high-performance option on American's sports car at a time when horsepower options for U.S. cars were severely lacking.
I remember the $60,000 being offered for $90,000 and up in The New York Times. Within a year or so....as production increased...the price fell. Obviously, they won't be making more of these Flowing Hairs....but I think the buyers right now are "weak hands" and the price will have to fall to reach more "strong hands."
JMHO.
Yes, we know, because each and every lot included the grade in the description. The vast majority were 70s. I don't remember the exact number, but I think 40-something were 69s, with the rest 70s.
You can Google it, and with a little searching find the SB pages with the results for every lot. Basically, given the relatively high price for all of them, and the scarcity of 69s as compared to 70s, there was not a huge price difference between the 2. Maybe around $5K. Prices were mid $20K to mid $30K for the 69s, and low to mid $30K for most of the 70s.
doesn't goldbully have the stats on these? i'll await his input
Okay, but your feeling is based on absolutely nothing if it's based on what happened with a Corvette 35 years ago. Why on earth would you think original buyers are weak hands, with strong hands standing by to catch the falling knife?
Because the price seems high to you? To me, it looks like exactly the opposite. That people paid up to get one of 230, and they ARE the strong hands. @jmlanzaf and @coiner represented the thinking of would-be weak hand flippers, and bailed when the air got too thin during the auction.
Thinking weak hands bid these up during the auction, in the hope of a quick flip, is wishful thinking. No telling where these will be years from now, since that will depend on sustained interest if and when original owners choose to liquidate.
But, for now, the price is the price. People looking for scores on eBay will likely be disappointed, but only a small handful of the 230 have been listed there.
People looking to scoop them up at a fraction of the SB auction prices will also be disappointed, because they can't believe anyone would pay what they sold for, other than flippers who are now going to be shaken out. There is simply no evidence that is the case, other than the disbelief of what people were willing to pay to obtain one of 230 modern Mint issues.
Bottom line -- no one is making 50% on what was full retail pricing at the auction. Similarly, the price is not collapsing soon after the auction, due to a massive onslaught of buyer's remorse, or because a bunch of dopes bid the majority of them up against each other with a view towards resale, at a premium to the massive premium paid at auction, with no actual retail demand for them at anything near where 230 were scooped up in less than 3 hours.
That is as much fantasy as the person listing one on eBay for $100K.
But NJCoin, you are saying you think the price will not hold so isn't that implying "weak hands" have the coins right now ?
Certainly, that seller who is offering a 15% discount isn't strong hands.
Here are the 45 PR69DCM privy FH Au coins from Stack Bowers
$26k to a high of $34k(#188) for PR69DCAM
The person that bought lot #188 has to be wondering why he/she pushed that bid button so high.
@NJCoin was correct in stating......"You can Google it, and with a little searching find the SB pages with the results for every lot. Basically, given the relatively high price for all of them, and the scarcity of 69s as compared to 70s, there was not a huge price difference between the 2. Maybe around $5K. Prices were mid $20K to mid $30K for the 69s, and low to mid $30K for most of the 70s."
Of the 185 PR70DCAM's, most were mid $30k
Lot #6 to lot #36, the trend was $38k to $41k
Lot #4 and lot #5 went for $46k
After lot #36($38k) the trend was $33k to $36K
Lots of $33k's and $34k's to be had at that point.
The low 70 was $32k for #162.
For some reason lot #100 went for $38k
Once the auction got to #214 the trend was $38k and up.
Lot #1 $440k
Lot#230 $90k
Stacks Bowers Link
Sure. But i never suggested otherwise.
The fees are tiered and get much cheaper above $4000 (with store), $2500 for comic nokks. They are published if you want to look them up. Or just use the calculator linked below.
For expensive items, the ebay fees including payment processing are less than PayPal fees alone.
People are ignorant and complain about eBay fees all the time. Yet they have the lowest fee structure of any major venue.
https://www.ebayfeescalculator.com/usa-ebay-calculator/
One of the few times I fully agree with your comment without caveat, I don't know how I feel being on the bay defense team though, not a huge fan of the Chewbacca defense...
Founder- Peak Rarities
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Lol. Thanks. I'm glad this is one of the few times you are completely correct without a caveat. I'm kidding, but are you signaling your normal disagreement with me for the benefit of the forum or just for me? 😉
That's impressive! 2nd appearance of Superman-very cool.
Yes. I really liked it. Arguably my favorite comic in inventory. Scarce. Unfortunately, Superman want on the cover or it would be a 6 figure book even restored
We will see that within 3-6 months.
Unlike a comment previously about well to do collectors - there are many in the group of buyers that are weak-hands and are buying on credit. The bills will start to roll in and the hands will get weaker.
Good luck when the NEXT gimmic is floated by the US Mint - maybe this time for 150 coins - or 100 - the value of these will diminish.
Not part of a popular series of gold coins - only a commemorative.
This seller has over 45 FH Au coins on eBay....2 are w/Privy(#166 and #204).
CoinAddict2020 Link
"Item Out of Stock" Coin #77
Listing Link
Not saying that at all! In fact, I explicitly have said, multiple times, that I DO think the price will hold in the short and intermediate term.
230 were sold. At least a few probably went to dummies looking for a quick flip.. THEY are going to be disappointed.
That said, a 15% discount on a 73% markup is hardly an indication that the price isn't going to hold. It's only an indication that the seller was clueless in buying for a flip, in initial pricing, and now looks desperate to sell.
Sure. Except these are the same buyers you said did not exist in the first place. Spending money you said did not exist, and could not possibly be gathered at one time in one place to support pricing anywhere near what was actually realized.
Now, you are in their bank accounts and know their motives in paying up. You might turn out to be right, but there is nothing in the evidence to date to suggest it.
It's just unfounded speculation based on what you think the coins should be worth. 2-6 years is another story, but there is no reason to think 3-6 months will be any different than December 12th.
The coins all sold for pretty much full retail on December 12th, so there is no reason to think anyone is going to be able to score a profitable flip in the short term. Maybe a few thousand, maybe not, depending on what they paid and how and to who they are selling.
OTOH, 230 all sold for good money. Far more than you thought possible. No reason to think another 20-30 couldn't have been sold at similar pricing.
Which means the few that come up for sale in the next few months, either due to buyer's remorse or would-be flippers realizing there is no flip and throwing in the towel, should all be able to be sold for prices similar to the original prices. The person who bought a 69 at $34K might take a small hit, while the people who paid $25-27K might make a dollar or two. But nothing major in either direction.
Certainly nothing close to what you think. Again, maybe in a few years if there is no future interest. But not now. Now there is still interest, and pricing has been established.
Can I sell you some Tulips?
Not in a few years. How about 6 months for serious price adjustments downward. You WILL be as SURPRISED as everyone was with the eye popping bids on these coins - the hit they will take.
The PR70's will settle less than the V75 Gold Eagle 70's.
The PR69's price will collapse. Try to get $13k for one of those in a year.
The issue with the modern market now is "What is the latest flavor"
When prices used to settle in and hold for a good period of time---now everything new is old news within 30-60 days.
And on to the next rare widget.
Im sure the USM has more grand plans for 200 or less mintages for sale by auction.
It's interesting to calculate the fee that eBay would retain when a buyer uses a 2% cashback credit card.
On a $40,000 purchase eBay would end up with 1%. $400.
I hope you are correct. That means there'll be some bargains coming up in a few months for those of us who, so far, haven't been able to afford a gold FH, or even a silver FH with privy!
He's not correct. He's in denial. Whatever happens, you are never going to find "some bargains" on items like this.
They are simply not meant for people like us. Period. Whining about it, railing against it, and denying what has happened after the market has spoken is not going to change anything.
There are only 230 of them, and they each contain around $2600-2700 worth of gold. There will be no bargains, regardless of whether they hold their value or go up or down from here.
@coiner was wrong about them never selling for anything close to V75 AGEs at auction because they are not part of a continuing series. That war has now been fought and lost.
Going forward, if the FH gold privy sinks in value, it is likely the V75 will sink right along with it, because it will be indicative of people losing interest in artificial modern privy rarities. No reason for people to suddenly fall out of love with one coin while still coveting the other one. And people have not lost interest in the V75 since it was released in 2020. In spite of the fact that another "rare widget" was released two weeks ago.
230 FH gold privys are worth around 50% more than 1945 V75s. That seems a little low to me, based on the relative mintages, but it's the value set at auction of all 230 two weeks ago.
Because these things can only go so high. 1/8 the mintage cannot, and did not, imply 8x the value. Even so, it seems crazy to repeatedly say 50% higher for something 8x as rare is somehow way too high, because it's not part of a series. It's a tribute to a popular, classic design.
And again, arguments pro and con before the auction are one thing. Being in denial after the fact, because you were wrong, is quite another. The market has spoken.
It's not changing in 3 months or 6 months. It might never change. My advice is accept it and move on, rather than holding your breath waiting for a bargain there is honestly no reason to ever manifest.
If they do go down in the future, not in a few months, but in years, it will be because they lost value. They will not be bargains at lower prices, and they will always hold a very significant premium over intrinsic value.
Will there be counterfeits? I think so, first with silver medals and then with gold FH. But will there be fakes with privies?? Wouldn't the gold FH with privies be much harder to pass off, as they are all numbered...?
A number on a COA is the easiest thing to counterfeit.
The numbered labels IMO are of little additional value other than the first several and the last one. Some have even sent theirs for crossover to CACG for example, and I am not even sure the numbers were kept on the new slab labels. I have not seen one, but 10 are shown on their pop/graded website.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
From the guy (NJCoin) who is wrong 99% of the time.
Hold tight, you will see a big drop in prices.
@NJCoin - why dont you poll some real dealers and see what the consensus is? I bet the majority would look for a big decline in price in the next 6 months. I bet it's probably around 85-90% leaning that way as well.
NJCoin - It would be nice if you actually had facts to back up your comments. Do you not know that the Flowing Hair Privy Gold is NOT part of a very popular continuing series like the V75? Do you not know that the Flowing Hair Gold is a once and done commemorative? Have you seen the price performance of Gold Commems as compared to those rarities in continuing series?
You try to base your theory on relative rarity, however, you have to look at demand for the item as well. There is FAR more demand for a V75 Gold than the Gold Flowing Hair Privey. You cant imply that it should be a multiple of the V75.
Im sure many dealers agree the prices realized at auction were way out of line with perceived value.
Prices will decline. The easy flip isnt going to happen with these. The prices are headed one way---DOWN.
I have nothing more to say. Im sure NjCoin will comment for another 30 pages and always will have to have the last word.
I need not say more.
It is interesting that you bring up the commemoratives, because there is one coin that defies all the rest and it is the 2001 silver buffalo commemorative. Despite having a very high mintage, it has held value way above the similar ones at those high mintages due to the classic design. That coin brought in many "classic" collectors, and the flowing hair may be a similar situation. It brought in the deep pocket dealers who bought this with pocket change. 230 is not a lot of coins. There will not be a desperation sale, that many coins in the total landscape will probably mean only about a few of them will be for sale at any one time. Would one desperation sale revalue all of them? Not likely.
Since this is the only mint release that represents the first US dollar coin, it is not like the mint has a who slew better example to beat this one. Maybe a chain cent in gold, but if the mint had to do it over again this flowing hair should have been 1 1/2 ounce in gold to get the correct diameter, and do a chain cent in one ounce size.
Because I don't need to poll anyone to know what's going to happen, just like I didn't need to poll you, or whoever fed quotes to the Greysheet ahead of the SB auction.
You are presently denying reality, and just expressing your wishes. There is absolutely nothing external to support your views. No one is dumping anything anywhere at prices close to what they paid, so you have no basis to believe there will be an imminent "big drop in prices." No basis at all.
It really does not matter what you, or anyone else who wants to buy them at prices far below market, think about the present market. Show me. You were wrong before. Your rationale was wrong before. Nothing has changed.
The fact that it wasn't part of a series didn't matter. There was plenty of money to support bidding far above what you imagined. In one place. At one time.
There is no reason to believe that the people who paid up did so on credit, in anticipation of a quick flip, and will be shaken out shortly when the bill comes. This is nothing but wishful thinking and blind speculation on your part.
Come back when we begin to see verified sales at or below the SB auction prices. Until then, denying the election results is not going to change them.
The actual facts I have are the actual auction results. Not woulda, coulda, shoulda based on what you, or anyone else, thinks should have happened based on feelings about the product.
Everyone who thinks prices are out of line is entitled to an opinion. If there was not sufficient demand to support the pricing achieved, it would not have been achieved, and you might have been right. No?
Repeatedly insisting the market is wrong is never a winning strategy. In the securities world, it's a great way to go broke, even if the market eventually gets to the level you think appropriate.
Whatever might happen in 5 or 10 years, insisting the market is wrong because you and "many dealers agree the prices realized at auction were way out of line with perceived value" does not make it so.
The market, by definition, is always right. That makes you the one who is wrong. Insisting it will change very soon, because it must, is based on nothing other than your inability to accept being wrong.
You like to say I am wrong 99% of the time, which is a gross exaggeration. But, if you keep saying the same incorrect thing over and over and over and over and over again, does that constitute being wrong once, or once for every time you repeat it? If it's the latter, your batting average now is far below mine. 😀
Gross exaggeration? Just look back at your posts from a month ago insisting you knew it all.
You were wrong. Period.
Most of that was so last month, and pretty soon it will be last year. 🤣😂🤣
He is just entertainment. He makes soooo many predictions he is bound to get some right, eventually. But when he does he will be the guy that predicted it. And you can not take that away from him. Eventually he will get a few right after enough predictions.
How can anyone argue with someone that predicted multiple "things"?
NJCoin claim your wins!
just like the broken clock
This coin is a beaut, no doubt about it. So far, no series type for 2025. Would not be surprised if 2026 has one or two.
Really like your display case. I like your coin even better. She's a beauty.