@PeakRarities said:
Ultimately, I veered away from the the US market with exceptions for branch mint and five star eye appeal. >Everyone here knows I don’t buy ugly coins, and I ended up being the bag holder on several 5 figure “trap coims” >that taught me real quick not to try to catch the failing knife.. greysheet AND price guides can be useless when the >downturn is sharp.
If you liked the coins.... you're not saying you shouldn't have bought them because you should have foreseen the price drops, are you ?
What made you think the coins you purchased/looked at....were a "falling knife" ? Were they the coins you knew or suspected Fairmont had coming out ?
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It's hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
It would behoove the sellers to let us know the true provenance.
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
@PeakRarities said:
Ultimately, I veered away from the the US market with exceptions for branch mint and five star eye appeal. >Everyone here knows I don’t buy ugly coins, and I ended up being the bag holder on several 5 figure “trap coims” >that taught me real quick not to try to catch the failing knife.. greysheet AND price guides can be useless when the >downturn is sharp.
If you liked the coins.... you're not saying you shouldn't have bought them because you should have foreseen the price drops, are you ?
What made you think the coins you purchased/looked at....were a "falling knife" ? Were they the coins you knew or suspected Fairmont had coming out ?
No, I should have foreseen the prices falling, but I made a quick judgment call rather than stew on it for a bit. "10% back of bid? Sure, why not"....... Greysheet drops 23% in 3 days
If I had spent some time, I would have seen there were a couple currently for sale and the last auction result not attached to the guides was abysmal. My coin was much nicer, but the damage was done.
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
I agree, the branch mint 5s actually did alright, it's mostly the scarce Philly gold that took a nosedive. Especially 20s. We all love original gold, but I can only report on the market and what I see. I imagine that in about a decade or two, when the last fairmont auction happens. we'll have to wait about another decade after that, but then the look will become universally loved again!
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
I agree, the branch mint 5s actually did alright, it's mostly the scarce Philly gold that took a nosedive. Especially 20s. We all love original gold, but I can only report on the market and what I see. I imagine that in about a decade or two, when the last fairmont auction happens. we'll have to wait about another decade after that, but then the look will become universally loved again!
I don't doubt your real time view of the market, there are exceedingly few people who have as good of a view of that area as you do. And using yourself is no fair...you only own 1 of a kind, beautiful coins already
We'll see what you say when the Fairmont Beaver comes on the market
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
It would behoove the sellers to let us know the true provenance.
I agree, I think full disclosure on origins is a legit question. Unless terms of sale required anonymity, or in other words a deal breaker.
As far as look, plenty of the coins to my knowledge were not gradeable but nearly all the CAC coins are spectacularly original, and will stand the test of time.
If you respect their opinion you have to be confident in the long run.
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
I agree, the branch mint 5s actually did alright, it's mostly the scarce Philly gold that took a nosedive. Especially 20s. We all love original gold, but I can only report on the market and what I see. I imagine that in about a decade or two, when the last fairmont auction happens. we'll have to wait about another decade after that, but then the look will become universally loved again!
I don't doubt your real time view of the market, there are exceedingly few people who have as good of a view of that area as you do. And using yourself is no fair...you only own 1 of a kind, beautiful coins already
We'll see what you say when the Fairmont Beaver comes on the market
Lol I agree Im not a good example, but im saying even when I buy more common coins, I like the look to be extraordinary, in the way that makes it feel unique. For example, if there were a ton of bechtlers with the fairmont look, I would still pay way more of a premium for this:
Whereas a fairmont bechtler would look like this :
I don't fault you for your preference of the "lightly circulated" old, crusty beavers however. Every beaver deserves companionship and allowed to have preferences, we can still be friends .
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
I agree, the branch mint 5s actually did alright, it's mostly the scarce Philly gold that took a nosedive. Especially 20s. We all love original gold, but I can only report on the market and what I see. I imagine that in about a decade or two, when the last fairmont auction happens. we'll have to wait about another decade after that, but then the look will become universally loved again!
I don't doubt your real time view of the market, there are exceedingly few people who have as good of a view of that area as you do. And using yourself is no fair...you only own 1 of a kind, beautiful coins already
We'll see what you say when the Fairmont Beaver comes on the market
Lol I agree Im not a good example, but im saying even when I buy more common coins, I like the look to be extraordinary, in the way that makes it feel unique. For example, if there were a ton of bechtlers with the fairmont look, I would still pay way more of a premium for this:
Whereas a fairmont bechtler would look like this :
I don't fault you for your preference of the "lightly circulated" old, crusty beavers however. Every beaver deserves companionship and allowed to have preferences, we can still be friends .
That is a fantastic Bechtler. If coins of that caliber are the alternative to Fairmont coins I would agree with you everyday.
However, I was thinking about something like a nice crusty Fairmont coin versus a processed SSCA $20.
And I'll thank you to show some discretion regarding any beavers in which I might be interested
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
I agree, the branch mint 5s actually did alright, it's mostly the scarce Philly gold that took a nosedive. Especially 20s. We all love original gold, but I can only report on the market and what I see. I imagine that in about a decade or two, when the last fairmont auction happens. we'll have to wait about another decade after that, but then the look will become universally loved again!
I don't doubt your real time view of the market, there are exceedingly few people who have as good of a view of that area as you do. And using yourself is no fair...you only own 1 of a kind, beautiful coins already
We'll see what you say when the Fairmont Beaver comes on the market
Lol I agree Im not a good example, but im saying even when I buy more common coins, I like the look to be extraordinary, in the way that makes it feel unique. For example, if there were a ton of bechtlers with the fairmont look, I would still pay way more of a premium for this:
Whereas a fairmont bechtler would look like this :
I don't fault you for your preference of the "lightly circulated" old, crusty beavers however. Every beaver deserves companionship and allowed to have preferences, we can still be friends .
That is a fantastic Bechtler. If coins of that caliber are the alternative to Fairmont coins I would agree with you everyday.
However, I was thinking about something like a nice crusty Fairmont coin versus a processed SSCA $20.
And I'll thank you to show some discretion regarding any beavers in which I might be interested
Actually, I'd say this is what I first had in mind when I mentioned the Charlotte 5s. They have a tendency to tone up rich like this if circumstances are right. It doesn't happened in a vacuum like the Fairmont coins, it requires actual circulation and oils and grease oxidation on the coin in addition to the variable purity.
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
I agree, the branch mint 5s actually did alright, it's mostly the scarce Philly gold that took a nosedive. Especially 20s. We all love original gold, but I can only report on the market and what I see. I imagine that in about a decade or two, when the last fairmont auction happens. we'll have to wait about another decade after that, but then the look will become universally loved again!
I don't doubt your real time view of the market, there are exceedingly few people who have as good of a view of that area as you do. And using yourself is no fair...you only own 1 of a kind, beautiful coins already
We'll see what you say when the Fairmont Beaver comes on the market
Lol I agree Im not a good example, but im saying even when I buy more common coins, I like the look to be extraordinary, in the way that makes it feel unique. For example, if there were a ton of bechtlers with the fairmont look, I would still pay way more of a premium for this:
Whereas a fairmont bechtler would look like this :
I don't fault you for your preference of the "lightly circulated" old, crusty beavers however. Every beaver deserves companionship and allowed to have preferences, we can still be friends .
That is a fantastic Bechtler. If coins of that caliber are the alternative to Fairmont coins I would agree with you everyday.
However, I was thinking about something like a nice crusty Fairmont coin versus a processed SSCA $20.
And I'll thank you to show some discretion regarding any beavers in which I might be interested
Actually, I'd say this is what I first had in mind when I mentioned the Charlotte 5s. They have a tendency to tone up rich like this if circumstances are right. It doesn't happened in a vacuum like the Fairmont coins, it requires actual circulation and oils and grease oxidation on the coin in addition to the variable purity.
@yspsales said:
Wonder what other discoveries are waiting to be made?
This might very well be a "discovery" -- we don't know. Only those who own the Fairmont Collection/Hoard and probably SB do...and nobody is talking.
For all we know...a bunch of collectors could have been collecting pre-1933 U.S. gold from all those WE BUY GOLD AND SILVER shops we all see....maybe thrown in other stray collections/accumulations....and passed it off as one giant homogenous hoard. Unlikely...but not impossible.
The Fairmont Collection is estimated to be 9 tons of gold (!) so it's not like a few old people died with safe deposit boxes in some European bank and the bank is selling it off as one big collection. It's MASSIVE....10x the size of the El Salvador 1983 Hoard and 20x the size of the 1908 NM Saint Hoard (1996), at least in terms of pieces.
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It'sIt was hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy . Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
I agree, the branch mint 5s actually did alright, it's mostly the scarce Philly gold that took a nosedive. Especially 20s. We all love original gold, but I can only report on the market and what I see. I imagine that in about a decade or two, when the last fairmont auction happens. we'll have to wait about another decade after that, but then the look will become universally loved again!
I don't doubt your real time view of the market, there are exceedingly few people who have as good of a view of that area as you do. And using yourself is no fair...you only own 1 of a kind, beautiful coins already
We'll see what you say when the Fairmont Beaver comes on the market
Lol I agree Im not a good example, but im saying even when I buy more common coins, I like the look to be extraordinary, in the way that makes it feel unique. For example, if there were a ton of bechtlers with the fairmont look, I would still pay way more of a premium for this:
Whereas a fairmont bechtler would look like this :
I don't fault you for your preference of the "lightly circulated" old, crusty beavers however. Every beaver deserves companionship and allowed to have preferences, we can still be friends .
That is a fantastic Bechtler. If coins of that caliber are the alternative to Fairmont coins I would agree with you everyday.
However, I was thinking about something like a nice crusty Fairmont coin versus a processed SSCA $20.
And I'll thank you to show some discretion regarding any beavers in which I might be interested
Actually, I'd say this is what I first had in mind when I mentioned the Charlotte 5s. They have a tendency to tone up rich like this if circumstances are right. It doesn't happened in a vacuum like the Fairmont coins, it requires actual circulation and oils and grease oxidation on the coin in addition to the variable purity.
@PeakRarities said:
No, I should have foreseen the prices falling, but I made a quick judgment call rather than stew on it for a bit. >"10% back of bid? Sure, why not"....... Greysheet drops 23% in 3 days
If I had spent some time, I would have seen there were a couple currently for sale and the last auction result not >attached to the guides was abysmal. My coin was much nicer, but the damage was done.
If it's any consolation, DW/RR noted a drop of 15-20% in the pricing for coins that were "Fairmonted" but they bounced back after a few months. I think they used the PCGS graph pricing, not the Greysheet. Over time, it tends to be pretty accurate (I think) though it lags on the downside and upside (IMO) so to use it for pricing at a point in time makes it less accurate than the GS.
@blitzdude said:
Not sure how this "Fairmont collection" even became a thing. Just another marketing gimmick for the industry to >realize a few extra $$$. RGDS!
First....it's a big story given the size of the hoard, though whether it is from a European bank or its an amalgamation of non-related collections, nobody knows (except the folks not talking). But the amount of Half Eagles, Eagles, and Double Eagles estimated in the aggregate -- as well as those worthy of being graded and certified -- has proven a bonanza to many 1800's gold collectors, such as CC DEs.
@blitzdude said:
Not sure how this "Fairmont collection" even became a thing. Just another marketing gimmick for the industry to realize a few extra $$$. RGDS!
Agree. I guess "Fairmont collection" sounds better and will be easier to market than "Fairmont hoard".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
As to the look of Fairmont coins, I think Fathom captures it pretty well when he says "spectacularly original." They stand as reminders that almost all gold from the 1800s (including most of the stickered coins in my sets) have likely had some form of processing at some point in time, A truly natural look comes with a price - a crust that not everyone is going to find attractive.
When one of the first Fairmont sets was auctioned, I heard a dealer say that he sent his son to lot view the Fairmont coins so that he could understand what "natural" and "original" gold coins really looks like and why the terms are so overused in describing coins that are for sale.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Actually, I'd say this is what I first had in mind when I mentioned the Charlotte 5s. They have a tendency to tone up rich like this if circumstances are right. It doesn't happened in a vacuum like the Fairmont coins, it requires actual circulation and oils and grease oxidation on the coin in addition to the variable purity.
"The hoard, which contains over a million coins, ranges from bags of large copper cents and Capped Bust half dollars, to Morgan and other silver dollars. Other coins include Washington quarters, Franklin half dollars, bags of Flying Eagle and Indian Head cents, nearly 10,000 1909 V.D.B cents, and more. Most are in circulated grades, and will appeal to collectors seeking coins that are both historical and affordable. The market value is estimated to be well into eight figures, with initial estimates ranging from $15 to $20 million."
Many bidding in those auctions score nice pickups during holidays or big ANA shows. Then to retail inventory they go.
A big gun dealer I know offers 10 pct behind bid off bourse from his table st shows (cash money) and really focus on those type of auc bidding to pickup inventory (holidays, Fun) ratchet down offer to block out the juice get them at that or below. I may check w him see if he did some bidding there. What they may have gone for in the past is history. It wb interesting to see what the seller realized after the juice vs bid. Perhaps he could have done better shopping them around the bourse. Frankly I am somewhat surprised they did not do worse.
The holidays can be a bad time to sell (auction). Some of them above did well vs bid however.
Some of my Best online Buy’s for retail stock have been over holidays or during big ANA shows.
@BStrauss3 said:
Does this bring to anyone else's mind the "West 57th Collection" that S-B mined for years and then finally went public with in 2014?
That to me CLEARLY had the look and feel of SB just selling whatever inventory they accumulated alongside a few nice collections. At least with the Fairmont Collection being all gold and mostly 1800's you have a plausible case for all/most of the coins being together at one time.
Did the W. 57th acknowledge that most of the coins were lower-priced, common coins ? Fairmont has obviously impacted many key or semi-key dates. Not sure W. 57th actually did that or there was the FEAR of that happening.
Here's a 53-D five that is pre-Fairmont. PCGS 53 CAC
Brian, I believe this coin was formerly in your collection. I acquired it from DW in 2016?.
I don't hate the Fairmont look, it just that the name "Fairmont" is starting to have a negative response in the
market with the apparently never ending supply.
@pogonip said:
I don't hate the Fairmont look, it just that the name "Fairmont" is starting to have a negative response in the
market with the apparently never ending supply.
I don't know how the 1983 El Savador Hoard was handled and information travelled differently pre-Internet. The internet was just beginning in 1996-99 when the 1908 Wells Fargo NM Saints Hoard hit. They sold the highest grades first...then the next tier....then the next group of MS coins.
I wasn't following it then, but I think everybody knew that there wouldn't be a drip-drip-drip going on for 5-10 years. They finished in 3 years pretty miuch.
The open question is, will the flood of Fairmont gold in certain areas stagnate prices for the next few years to decade? DWN said a while back that the market could handle the input. Does that still hold?
Stack's 57 collection was an accumulation put together by a hoarder from circulation. Fairmount represents more like the holdings of a government or bank. That's my guess.
Thirty to forty years ago, when I was more directly involved with several large auctioneers, numismatic and non numismatic, I can remember hearing word of a huge hoard of gold in Venezuela. Some negotiations took place back then but the coins didn't come north. I think that they finally have been sold. The excitement is fading and prices are declining.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
@Desert Moon said:
The open question is, will the flood of Fairmont gold in certain areas stagnate prices for the next few years to decade? DWN said a while back that the market could handle the input. Does that still hold?
Best, DM
DW has said that the market can absorb the more common Fairmont coins but the rare more thinly traded dates valuations will be adversely impacted.
@Desert Moon said:
The open question is, will the flood of Fairmont gold in certain areas stagnate prices for the next few years to decade? DWN said a while back that the market could handle the input. Does that still hold?
Best, DM
DW has said that the market can absorb the more common Fairmont coins but the rare more thinly traded dates valuations will be adversely impacted.
I wouldn't go as far as to say that DW had to backpedal, but I'd say that his confidence in the market being able to absorb these without adversely affecting prices has waned quite a bit. Then again, to be fair, the overall market is much softer than it was a few years ago and Im unsure whether or not he knows/knew the total amount of coins in hoard.
Here's one strong example of dilution, and why I'm generally backed off of the $20 market right now.
I'm not up to speed with the finer details of the Farirmont coins, but I would guess that the sheer size of the numbers being thrown about and the relative lack of knowledge of what coins and what grades these numbers represent can really serve to freeze out money from this niche.
In a small way, this group reminds me of the Canadian Bank Hoard of 1912-1914 Canadian gold coins. These coins were known about for decades, but were inaccessible and there were no concrete or immediate plans to resolve the dilemma. The number of coins held by the Bank of Canada represented around 50% of the entire combined mintage of all Canadian $5 and $10 gold pieces issued within the lifetime of the series (1912-1914). The extant and available coins traded at a premium, but never took off at least partially due to the overhanging bags of coins held off the market for a century. Then the Canadian government finally sold off 5,791 of the $5 coins and 24,239 of the $10 coins while the remainder of the approximately 245,000 pieces in the hoard were melted into gold bars and sold off that way.
Even though nearly 90% of what had been saved was destroyed, the market never really recovered. I realize the breadth and depth of the US gold market dwarfs that of the Canadian gold market and also realize that there are myriad dates and individual issues involved in the Fairmont group whereas the Bank of Canada hoard represented only six issues, but it will be interesting to see if history repeats itself a decade later with these coins.
The DE market is soft today and how may collectors are there who care about a small date vs large date variety. The small vs large date variety is very different than a 66-S no motto vs motto.
Take a look at a common Dahlonega date. The prices has gone up. The $5000 price is for the only CAC date.
@sellitstore said:
Thirty to forty years ago, when I was more directly involved with several large auctioneers, numismatic and non >numismatic, I can remember hearing word of a huge hoard of gold in Venezuela. Some negotiations took place back >then but the coins didn't come north. I think that they finally have been sold. The excitement is fading and prices >are declining.
There was some posts here by someone with connections to Venezuela officials who was confident that Fairmont was largely of Venezuelan origins.
@skier07 said:
DW has said that the market can absorb the more common Fairmont coins but the rare more thinly traded dates >valuations will be adversely impacted.
True...but even coins that were "Fairmonted" and took a price hit did bounce back within a few months or a year or so.
The problem has been that the buyers are now afraid of the proverbial another shoe to drop with MORE of the coins coming out. You don't know if a rare pop is going to have 5 newcomers (manageable) or 50 (a problem). The expectation is that the best coins have been sold first...but who knows ?
Lots of great posts at DW's site on the price impact of the Fairmont hoard and the guest blogger Richard Radick has done some fantastic analyses of the hoard. If anybody reads the (so far) 6-part analysis, let me know how he suddenly came up with 400,000 coins for the total hoard size. It seemed to come out of nowhere and I went back and read the relevant sections again and still didn't see where the number came from (he was actually discussing Type 1 $5 pieces when he segued into a chart showing the 400K coins).
@PeakRarities said:
Here's one strong example of dilution, and why I'm generally backed off of the $20 market right now.
Wow, that is some decline going back even before Fairmont hit in 2018. I wonder if 1854's from Fairmont hit the market -- you need to do that time series analysis using the bi-monthly population reports from PCGS.
Not sure DW or RR have done it, will go back to see if they mention it.
@skier07 said:
Take a look at a common Dahlonega date. The prices has gone up. The $5000 price is for the only CAC date.
That's what DW has stressed. There wasn't enough QUALITY Dahlonega or Charlotte coins so Fairmont (within reason) is a plus for meeting demand and actually broadening the market (similar to SSCA and Type 1 DE's 20 years ago).
Ditto CC gold being able to be absorbed, too.
OTOH, you could get "Fairmonted" with the other mints and other denominations if they already were well-supplied.
Here's the chart showing guestimated volumes from all the mints. Notice the D, C, and CC totals:
The DE market is soft today and how may collectors are there who care about a small date vs large date variety. The small vs large date variety is very different than a 66-S no motto vs motto.
Take a look at a common Dahlonega date. The prices has gone up. The $5000 price is for the only CAC date.
I’m sorry @skier07 but I’m unclear on whether you’re echoing my point or making a counterpoint, so I’ll reply with something that addresses both.
Yes, you and I can fully agree that the 54 large Date $20 is of dubious historical significance, and many collectors may not even care enough to differentiate between the two.
I also said that I think southern gold would be fine for the most part , I was mainly concerned with the 20s, especially Philly. Using the right parameters , I can illustrate softening in many $20 issues (including branch mints). Not to say I wouldn't buy them, but as a generalization, I'm exercising the most caution with those at the moment.
I think this side tangent was originally stemming from Doug’s comment about the market being able to absorb most of the hoard, since the demand for southern gold dwarfed the supply long before fairmont. When I open up Doug’s Dahlonega book and pick a random $5 date, I landed on ‘46-D regular D. At the time this book was printed about a decade ago, it showed there were a reported 175-225 survivors at that time.
Now, pop reports reflect a bit over 300 coins and I don’t see any under the number “0” so I’m assuming that does not include any details coins. We know for a fact however, that the figure does not include the examples that were sold raw or wholesaled raw. You mentioned that the floor for a nice common date in XF with CAC is 5k (give or take) now, and I certainly hope that it would, considering that our dollars had 1.67 as much purchasing power than they do now….meaning that spending 3k 20 years ago is like spending 5k now.
Let me preface by saying Doug IS a legend, and he likely forgot more than I’ll ever know about these coins. They’ve been his specialty for decades, so he’s positioned where he's likely handled just about all of them, and pretty much single handedly created the appreciation and demand for them with his research and literature. As a specialist dealer, it's in his interest to advocate for his area of expertise. After all, that’s where his insight allows him to identify value and trends that others don't see. With any specialist dealer, you may pay a bit more than you would in an auction, but the guidance of a decades-long expert can be priceless; especially when you only have pictures to base your decisions.
With that, every specialist has a bias, even if it's subconscious, that may influence their projections. Doug is pretty high up on the objectivity spectrum compared to most, but any dealer's opinion of should be taken with a tiny grain of salt, just like any opinion. Clearly, some opinions are worth more than others and I consider Dougs to be highly valuable. At the same time, I wouldn't his blog to portray a negative outlook on the future performance of his inventory, and the same can be said for any dealer with a niche focus. The good thing is that Doug is straightforward and his experience is expensive, he knows what he's talking about.
Everything I've said until this point has been mostly observations , but if you want to know what my personal opinion that's just speculation with no factual basis, I have trouble finding the value in many branch mint gold issues. To mitigate this, I like to buy personality pieces that have an extraordinary appearance compared to its brethren. This strategy basically gives you a “unique” example that someone else is likely to fall In love with down the road. Regardless of hoards and increases in pop reports, your coin can not easily be replaced. Otherwise, I don’t understand how some of thse BM issues hold value like they do, in a 65+ year run containing six different mints. Though what we do know that rarity =/= demand/collectibility, and since southern gold has such a charming history similar to the pioneer operations, its always going to have more demand and sex appeal than Philly gold.
Some of the issues are truly scarce, but some are only because of variety split. Some issues are not even remotely scarce , the 54-d “large D” had an estimated 600+ survivors a decade ago BEFORE Fairmont, hundreds of them available in choice AU grades . I just don’t grasp how an AU58 example trends around 10k, when some of the other D or C issues that are 3-4x as rare seemingly cost the same? In a time of uncertainty, where there may be dozens, even hundreds of coins about to join the party? Could it be that the prominent mint mark makes it so desirable? Is there an 1854 type set bolstering demand? Not sure, but If I wanted one I would make no concessions with eye appeal. An issue that comes around frequently allows you to be picky and wait for one that checks every box. I guess this is a great issue to illustrate Dougs point bout the common issues being absorbed easier than an esoteric one?
For me, in terms of long term value, I'd opt for the Moffatt or Clark $5 issues for the same price if you don't mind slightly lower grades. Another direction would be a nice Draped or capped Bust $5. Either of them have a very limited run of issues in the set, and are much less likely to be found in hoards. Other notable issues that can be had under 15k would be the $20 Kellogg, a 1853 assay $20, 1849 Norris etc,
This is jmo, but I think all of those are cooler and provide so much value by comparison. Don’t let me be turd in the punch bowl though. I love southern gold, I buy and sell southern gold, but I just wouldn’t hold much of it unless it’s a knockout type like @CharlotteDude coins. Without the the history behind them though, they just look like ordinary $5 libs with a different mint mark at first glance. I really like designs that weren't used for a long time, on so many different issues. The more of something I see on the bourse , the less I want it 🤷♂️. Ultimately the same holds true with any coin, the nicest examples will always perform the average ones.
Edit- forgot to add that I ABSOLUTELY LOVE the classic head branch mint coins.,.like I said it’s mainly a design thing for me.
omg, that's such a nice example that I just noticed for the first time in my life that they made that beaver anatomically correct - I think... it never even crossed my mind what a male beaver's junk looks like
The DE market is soft today and how may collectors are there who care about a small date vs large date variety. The small vs large date variety is very different than a 66-S no motto vs motto.
Take a look at a common Dahlonega date. The prices has gone up. The $5000 price is for the only CAC date.
Not to speak for @PeakRarities , but large/small date aside, look at the frequency of offerings. Dan's list shows an obvious supply dilution with 5 auctions in the last 2 years versus only 11 in the previous 20 years. The Dahlonega coin you showed did not show a similar dilution with 7 sales from 2016 to 2021 and only 5 in they last 2 years. So, humbly, i suggest this is apples and oranges.
@sellitstore said:
Thirty to forty years ago, when I was more directly involved with several large auctioneers, numismatic and non >numismatic, I can remember hearing word of a huge hoard of gold in Venezuela. Some negotiations took place back >then but the coins didn't come north. I think that they finally have been sold. The excitement is fading and prices >are declining.
There was some posts here by someone with connections to Venezuela officials who was confident that Fairmont was largely of Venezuelan origins.
No proof, but plausible.
That's why I posted what I had heard quite a while ago. Unfortunately I was told little and have no further details other than negotiations continued for at least several years.
I agree that there are similarities to the Canadian Bank hoard and differences, too. A big one is the size of the numismatic market for each. I winced when Canada decided to melt most of their coins but they saved the nicest 10% and the rest was worth little over melt because there weren't nearly enough collectors to absorb the quantity of coins.
Interestingly, the same decision was made with a hoard of high grade 1695-1700 English silver coins discovered during the 19th? century-save the nicest 10% and melt the rest. Uncirculated (and beautifully toned) English silver from this period can be found today at affordable prices while the same denomination coins from 10 years earlier or later in higher grades are quite rare.
Yes, rare U.S. gold coins who have seen their populations rise will do much better than the scarce ones whose demand can be easily met. Many slightly better dates will have trouble maintaining premiums and will behave more like common dates, whose premium will increase as bullion falls and the will to get back in at a reasonable price will make that impossible due to large premiums. But, of course bullion has to fall substantially for this scenario and this is where I have my doubts and no reliable insight.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
I believe we’re in agreement. Rare and esoteric issues with low survivor populations have been adversely affected by Fairmont. If a coin let’s say has a survivor population of 75 and Fairmont introduces another 5-6 coins the value will drop. I believe DW discusses this in his blog. On the other hand if we take a common date branch mint like the 1845-D $5 from above with a survivor population of 300 the market can easily absorb another five coins without the value being adversely impacted.
Your 1854 example (forgetting about whether collectors care about this variety) demonstrates this. It has a small number of survivors and its value has dropped mostly because of Fairmont.
This is a very interesting discussion. The Fairmont coins amount to a massive increase in $20, $10 and $5 material. I only bought 1 coin from the hoard; a $5 1861-C in 58 CAC. I think that there were at least 3 61-C's in the hoard. It still remains a pretty rare coin especially in the high AU grades. I paid just a tad over $37k for mine. The other 58 CAC that sold has resurfaced and is for sale at the upcoming FUN auction in 3 weeks. That one sold for just over $40k back in 2022. It will be interesting to see where it sells.
My guess is that it will go for $40k+. Let's see what happens...
Comments
If you liked the coins.... you're not saying you shouldn't have bought them because you should have foreseen the price drops, are you ?
What made you think the coins you purchased/looked at....were a "falling knife" ? Were they the coins you knew or suspected Fairmont had coming out ?
Who could be tired of the Fairmont look? Apart from any of the other considerations, the coins stand on their own. I think the coins are overwhelmingly very attractive. It's hard to find unmolested gold with a nice crust.
It would behoove the sellers to let us know the true provenance.
For one, Yyu'd have to ask the market- Have two identical dat and grade C-mint 5's out at a show. One has the typical green-gold fairmont look, the other is a bit more of a "commercially lightened long ago, and has since developed a rich amber hue" look. Both are high enough up on the spectrum too be called original. You'll see real quick which one sells first.
Second, this guy
. Personally, and I imagine this is the case for others too, I like to have coins with a "unique" appearance, that cant be replaced. You cant say that about an issue that auctions 3 times a year in the same grade, with the same overall appearance.
As an aside, you might find it interesting that Doug was the first dealer who agreed with me that roughly 1/3 gold collectors was. no longer interested in that look.
Edit- also made a correction in in your post to make another point.
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No, I should have foreseen the prices falling, but I made a quick judgment call rather than stew on it for a bit. "10% back of bid? Sure, why not"....... Greysheet drops 23% in 3 days
If I had spent some time, I would have seen there were a couple currently for sale and the last auction result not attached to the guides was abysmal. My coin was much nicer, but the damage was done.
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I hear the pain of collector's whose rarities were "Fairmonted" but it's extremely exciting to see more C and D mint survivors become available.
I agree, the branch mint 5s actually did alright, it's mostly the scarce Philly gold that took a nosedive. Especially 20s. We all love original gold, but I can only report on the market and what I see. I imagine that in about a decade or two, when the last fairmont auction happens. we'll have to wait about another decade after that, but then the look will become universally loved again!
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I don't doubt your real time view of the market, there are exceedingly few people who have as good of a view of that area as you do. And using yourself is no fair...you only own 1 of a kind, beautiful coins already
We'll see what you say when the Fairmont Beaver comes on the market
So the territorial is a Beaver. Is it the $10?
No, just making a joke re the Oregon Territorial. It's a $5.
https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/10288
I agree, I think full disclosure on origins is a legit question. Unless terms of sale required anonymity, or in other words a deal breaker.
As far as look, plenty of the coins to my knowledge were not gradeable but nearly all the CAC coins are spectacularly original, and will stand the test of time.
If you respect their opinion you have to be confident in the long run.
Lol I agree Im not a good example, but im saying even when I buy more common coins, I like the look to be extraordinary, in the way that makes it feel unique. For example, if there were a ton of bechtlers with the fairmont look, I would still pay way more of a premium for this:
Whereas a fairmont bechtler would look like this :
I don't fault you for your preference of the "lightly circulated" old, crusty beavers however. Every beaver deserves companionship and allowed to have preferences, we can still be friends
.
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That is a fantastic Bechtler. If coins of that caliber are the alternative to Fairmont coins I would agree with you everyday.
However, I was thinking about something like a nice crusty Fairmont coin versus a processed SSCA $20.
And I'll thank you to show some discretion regarding any beavers in which I might be interested
Actually, I'd say this is what I first had in mind when I mentioned the Charlotte 5s. They have a tendency to tone up rich like this if circumstances are right. It doesn't happened in a vacuum like the Fairmont coins, it requires actual circulation and oils and grease oxidation on the coin in addition to the variable purity.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/liberty-half-eagles/1853-c-5-au50-pcgs-cac-variety-1-pcgs-8254-/a/1161-4301.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
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a lot like your 1799 actually lol
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No words for that Charlotte $5. Preferable to the Fairmont examples, but takes a lot of patience - your specialty (but not always mine).
Not sure how this "Fairmont collection" even became a thing. Just another marketing gimmick for the industry to realize a few extra $$$. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
I believe @CharlotteDude owned that coin
Latin American Collection
If it's any consolation, DW/RR noted a drop of 15-20% in the pricing for coins that were "Fairmonted" but they bounced back after a few months. I think they used the PCGS graph pricing, not the Greysheet. Over time, it tends to be pretty accurate (I think) though it lags on the downside and upside (IMO) so to use it for pricing at a point in time makes it less accurate than the GS.
First....it's a big story given the size of the hoard, though whether it is from a European bank or its an amalgamation of non-related collections, nobody knows (except the folks not talking). But the amount of Half Eagles, Eagles, and Double Eagles estimated in the aggregate -- as well as those worthy of being graded and certified -- has proven a bonanza to many 1800's gold collectors, such as CC DEs.
Second...what is "RGDS" ?
Agree. I guess "Fairmont collection" sounds better and will be easier to market than "Fairmont hoard".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
As to the look of Fairmont coins, I think Fathom captures it pretty well when he says "spectacularly original." They stand as reminders that almost all gold from the 1800s (including most of the stickered coins in my sets) have likely had some form of processing at some point in time, A truly natural look comes with a price - a crust that not everyone is going to find attractive.
When one of the first Fairmont sets was auctioned, I heard a dealer say that he sent his son to lot view the Fairmont coins so that he could understand what "natural" and "original" gold coins really looks like and why the terms are so overused in describing coins that are for sale.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Actually, I still have it, and yes, I was the winning Heritage bidder back in 2011.
Photo courtesy of Todd from BluCC
Does this bring to anyone else's mind the "West 57th Collection" that S-B mined for years and then finally went public with in 2014?
https://media.stacksbowers.com/SBG_eblast_images/2014/SBG_57StCollEblast_140325.html
"The hoard, which contains over a million coins, ranges from bags of large copper cents and Capped Bust half dollars, to Morgan and other silver dollars. Other coins include Washington quarters, Franklin half dollars, bags of Flying Eagle and Indian Head cents, nearly 10,000 1909 V.D.B cents, and more. Most are in circulated grades, and will appeal to collectors seeking coins that are both historical and affordable. The market value is estimated to be well into eight figures, with initial estimates ranging from $15 to $20 million."
https://coinweek.com/west-57th-street-collection/
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Many bidding in those auctions score nice pickups during holidays or big ANA shows. Then to retail inventory they go.
A big gun dealer I know offers 10 pct behind bid off bourse from his table st shows (cash money) and really focus on those type of auc bidding to pickup inventory (holidays, Fun) ratchet down offer to block out the juice get them at that or below. I may check w him see if he did some bidding there. What they may have gone for in the past is history. It wb interesting to see what the seller realized after the juice vs bid. Perhaps he could have done better shopping them around the bourse. Frankly I am somewhat surprised they did not do worse.
The holidays can be a bad time to sell (auction). Some of them above did well vs bid however.
Some of my Best online Buy’s for retail stock have been over holidays or during big ANA shows.
Anyone have a 1960-D Jefferson high MS FS hoard out there for one of us poor slobs?
That to me CLEARLY had the look and feel of SB just selling whatever inventory they accumulated alongside a few nice collections. At least with the Fairmont Collection being all gold and mostly 1800's you have a plausible case for all/most of the coins being together at one time.
Did the W. 57th acknowledge that most of the coins were lower-priced, common coins ? Fairmont has obviously impacted many key or semi-key dates. Not sure W. 57th actually did that or there was the FEAR of that happening.
Maybe the vets here can chime in.
I don’t care for the Fairmont pedigree
Here's a 53-D five that is pre-Fairmont. PCGS 53 CAC
Brian, I believe this coin was formerly in your collection. I acquired it from DW in 2016?.
I don't hate the Fairmont look, it just that the name "Fairmont" is starting to have a negative response in the
market with the apparently never ending supply.
I don't know how the 1983 El Savador Hoard was handled and information travelled differently pre-Internet. The internet was just beginning in 1996-99 when the 1908 Wells Fargo NM Saints Hoard hit. They sold the highest grades first...then the next tier....then the next group of MS coins.
I wasn't following it then, but I think everybody knew that there wouldn't be a drip-drip-drip going on for 5-10 years. They finished in 3 years pretty miuch.
The open question is, will the flood of Fairmont gold in certain areas stagnate prices for the next few years to decade? DWN said a while back that the market could handle the input. Does that still hold?
Best, DM
Stack's 57 collection was an accumulation put together by a hoarder from circulation. Fairmount represents more like the holdings of a government or bank. That's my guess.
Thirty to forty years ago, when I was more directly involved with several large auctioneers, numismatic and non numismatic, I can remember hearing word of a huge hoard of gold in Venezuela. Some negotiations took place back then but the coins didn't come north. I think that they finally have been sold. The excitement is fading and prices are declining.
@sellitstore - Careful now with the V word, don't want to earn yourself a trip to the "train station" from some suits in a suburban.
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DW has said that the market can absorb the more common Fairmont coins but the rare more thinly traded dates valuations will be adversely impacted.
I wouldn't go as far as to say that DW had to backpedal, but I'd say that his confidence in the market being able to absorb these without adversely affecting prices has waned quite a bit. Then again, to be fair, the overall market is much softer than it was a few years ago and Im unsure whether or not he knows/knew the total amount of coins in hoard.
Here's one strong example of dilution, and why I'm generally backed off of the $20 market right now.
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I'm not up to speed with the finer details of the Farirmont coins, but I would guess that the sheer size of the numbers being thrown about and the relative lack of knowledge of what coins and what grades these numbers represent can really serve to freeze out money from this niche.
In a small way, this group reminds me of the Canadian Bank Hoard of 1912-1914 Canadian gold coins. These coins were known about for decades, but were inaccessible and there were no concrete or immediate plans to resolve the dilemma. The number of coins held by the Bank of Canada represented around 50% of the entire combined mintage of all Canadian $5 and $10 gold pieces issued within the lifetime of the series (1912-1914). The extant and available coins traded at a premium, but never took off at least partially due to the overhanging bags of coins held off the market for a century. Then the Canadian government finally sold off 5,791 of the $5 coins and 24,239 of the $10 coins while the remainder of the approximately 245,000 pieces in the hoard were melted into gold bars and sold off that way.
Even though nearly 90% of what had been saved was destroyed, the market never really recovered. I realize the breadth and depth of the US gold market dwarfs that of the Canadian gold market and also realize that there are myriad dates and individual issues involved in the Fairmont group whereas the Bank of Canada hoard represented only six issues, but it will be interesting to see if history repeats itself a decade later with these coins.
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The DE market is soft today and how may collectors are there who care about a small date vs large date variety. The small vs large date variety is very different than a 66-S no motto vs motto.
Take a look at a common Dahlonega date. The prices has gone up. The $5000 price is for the only CAC date.
There was some posts here by someone with connections to Venezuela officials who was confident that Fairmont was largely of Venezuelan origins.
No proof, but plausible.
True...but even coins that were "Fairmonted" and took a price hit did bounce back within a few months or a year or so.
The problem has been that the buyers are now afraid of the proverbial another shoe to drop with MORE of the coins coming out. You don't know if a rare pop is going to have 5 newcomers (manageable) or 50 (a problem). The expectation is that the best coins have been sold first...but who knows ?
Lots of great posts at DW's site on the price impact of the Fairmont hoard and the guest blogger Richard Radick has done some fantastic analyses of the hoard. If anybody reads the (so far) 6-part analysis, let me know how he suddenly came up with 400,000 coins for the total hoard size. It seemed to come out of nowhere and I went back and read the relevant sections again and still didn't see where the number came from (he was actually discussing Type 1 $5 pieces when he segued into a chart showing the 400K coins).
Wow, that is some decline going back even before Fairmont hit in 2018. I wonder if 1854's from Fairmont hit the market -- you need to do that time series analysis using the bi-monthly population reports from PCGS.
Not sure DW or RR have done it, will go back to see if they mention it.
That's what DW has stressed. There wasn't enough QUALITY Dahlonega or Charlotte coins so Fairmont (within reason) is a plus for meeting demand and actually broadening the market (similar to SSCA and Type 1 DE's 20 years ago).
Ditto CC gold being able to be absorbed, too.
OTOH, you could get "Fairmonted" with the other mints and other denominations if they already were well-supplied.
Here's the chart showing guestimated volumes from all the mints. Notice the D, C, and CC totals:
I’m sorry @skier07 but I’m unclear on whether you’re echoing my point or making a counterpoint, so I’ll reply with something that addresses both.
Yes, you and I can fully agree that the 54 large Date $20 is of dubious historical significance, and many collectors may not even care enough to differentiate between the two.
I also said that I think southern gold would be fine for the most part , I was mainly concerned with the 20s, especially Philly. Using the right parameters , I can illustrate softening in many $20 issues (including branch mints). Not to say I wouldn't buy them, but as a generalization, I'm exercising the most caution with those at the moment.
I think this side tangent was originally stemming from Doug’s comment about the market being able to absorb most of the hoard, since the demand for southern gold dwarfed the supply long before fairmont. When I open up Doug’s Dahlonega book and pick a random $5 date, I landed on ‘46-D regular D. At the time this book was printed about a decade ago, it showed there were a reported 175-225 survivors at that time.
Now, pop reports reflect a bit over 300 coins and I don’t see any under the number “0” so I’m assuming that does not include any details coins. We know for a fact however, that the figure does not include the examples that were sold raw or wholesaled raw. You mentioned that the floor for a nice common date in XF with CAC is 5k (give or take) now, and I certainly hope that it would, considering that our dollars had 1.67 as much purchasing power than they do now….meaning that spending 3k 20 years ago is like spending 5k now.
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Let me preface by saying Doug IS a legend, and he likely forgot more than I’ll ever know about these coins. They’ve been his specialty for decades, so he’s positioned where he's likely handled just about all of them, and pretty much single handedly created the appreciation and demand for them with his research and literature. As a specialist dealer, it's in his interest to advocate for his area of expertise. After all, that’s where his insight allows him to identify value and trends that others don't see. With any specialist dealer, you may pay a bit more than you would in an auction, but the guidance of a decades-long expert can be priceless; especially when you only have pictures to base your decisions.
With that, every specialist has a bias, even if it's subconscious, that may influence their projections. Doug is pretty high up on the objectivity spectrum compared to most, but any dealer's opinion of should be taken with a tiny grain of salt, just like any opinion. Clearly, some opinions are worth more than others and I consider Dougs to be highly valuable. At the same time, I wouldn't his blog to portray a negative outlook on the future performance of his inventory, and the same can be said for any dealer with a niche focus. The good thing is that Doug is straightforward and his experience is expensive, he knows what he's talking about.
Everything I've said until this point has been mostly observations , but if you want to know what my personal opinion that's just speculation with no factual basis, I have trouble finding the value in many branch mint gold issues. To mitigate this, I like to buy personality pieces that have an extraordinary appearance compared to its brethren. This strategy basically gives you a “unique” example that someone else is likely to fall In love with down the road. Regardless of hoards and increases in pop reports, your coin can not easily be replaced. Otherwise, I don’t understand how some of thse BM issues hold value like they do, in a 65+ year run containing six different mints. Though what we do know that rarity =/= demand/collectibility, and since southern gold has such a charming history similar to the pioneer operations, its always going to have more demand and sex appeal than Philly gold.
Some of the issues are truly scarce, but some are only because of variety split. Some issues are not even remotely scarce , the 54-d “large D” had an estimated 600+ survivors a decade ago BEFORE Fairmont, hundreds of them available in choice AU grades . I just don’t grasp how an AU58 example trends around 10k, when some of the other D or C issues that are 3-4x as rare seemingly cost the same? In a time of uncertainty, where there may be dozens, even hundreds of coins about to join the party? Could it be that the prominent mint mark makes it so desirable? Is there an 1854 type set bolstering demand? Not sure, but If I wanted one I would make no concessions with eye appeal. An issue that comes around frequently allows you to be picky and wait for one that checks every box. I guess this is a great issue to illustrate Dougs point bout the common issues being absorbed easier than an esoteric one?
For me, in terms of long term value, I'd opt for the Moffatt or Clark $5 issues for the same price if you don't mind slightly lower grades. Another direction would be a nice Draped or capped Bust $5. Either of them have a very limited run of issues in the set, and are much less likely to be found in hoards. Other notable issues that can be had under 15k would be the $20 Kellogg, a 1853 assay $20, 1849 Norris etc,
This is jmo, but I think all of those are cooler and provide so much value by comparison. Don’t let me be turd in the punch bowl though. I love southern gold, I buy and sell southern gold, but I just wouldn’t hold much of it unless it’s a knockout type like @CharlotteDude coins. Without the the history behind them though, they just look like ordinary $5 libs with a different mint mark at first glance. I really like designs that weren't used for a long time, on so many different issues. The more of something I see on the bourse , the less I want it 🤷♂️. Ultimately the same holds true with any coin, the nicest examples will always perform the average ones.
Edit- forgot to add that I ABSOLUTELY LOVE the classic head branch mint coins.,.like I said it’s mainly a design thing for me.
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omg, that's such a nice example that I just noticed for the first time in my life that they made that beaver anatomically correct - I think... it never even crossed my mind what a male beaver's junk looks like
Not to speak for @PeakRarities , but large/small date aside, look at the frequency of offerings. Dan's list shows an obvious supply dilution with 5 auctions in the last 2 years versus only 11 in the previous 20 years. The Dahlonega coin you showed did not show a similar dilution with 7 sales from 2016 to 2021 and only 5 in they last 2 years. So, humbly, i suggest this is apples and oranges.
Thank y'all for the quality posts. Very helpful.
If gold was to return to $1250... what role does the spot price play?
As a neophyte in gold, what would that do to the values of these coins?
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Nothing, these are pretty much independent of spot. Lib 20s if they’re not better dates might lose some, but honestly I don’t know 🤷♂️.
I know that common saints would take a hard hit.
Most of us see how spot will jump up and premiums evaporate overnight, I’ve always wondered if the reverse scenario would be the same?
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That's why I posted what I had heard quite a while ago. Unfortunately I was told little and have no further details other than negotiations continued for at least several years.
I agree that there are similarities to the Canadian Bank hoard and differences, too. A big one is the size of the numismatic market for each. I winced when Canada decided to melt most of their coins but they saved the nicest 10% and the rest was worth little over melt because there weren't nearly enough collectors to absorb the quantity of coins.
Interestingly, the same decision was made with a hoard of high grade 1695-1700 English silver coins discovered during the 19th? century-save the nicest 10% and melt the rest. Uncirculated (and beautifully toned) English silver from this period can be found today at affordable prices while the same denomination coins from 10 years earlier or later in higher grades are quite rare.
Yes, rare U.S. gold coins who have seen their populations rise will do much better than the scarce ones whose demand can be easily met. Many slightly better dates will have trouble maintaining premiums and will behave more like common dates, whose premium will increase as bullion falls and the will to get back in at a reasonable price will make that impossible due to large premiums. But, of course bullion has to fall substantially for this scenario and this is where I have my doubts and no reliable insight.
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I believe we’re in agreement. Rare and esoteric issues with low survivor populations have been adversely affected by Fairmont. If a coin let’s say has a survivor population of 75 and Fairmont introduces another 5-6 coins the value will drop. I believe DW discusses this in his blog. On the other hand if we take a common date branch mint like the 1845-D $5 from above with a survivor population of 300 the market can easily absorb another five coins without the value being adversely impacted.
Your 1854 example (forgetting about whether collectors care about this variety) demonstrates this. It has a small number of survivors and its value has dropped mostly because of Fairmont.
I hope this makes sense.
This is a very interesting discussion. The Fairmont coins amount to a massive increase in $20, $10 and $5 material. I only bought 1 coin from the hoard; a $5 1861-C in 58 CAC. I think that there were at least 3 61-C's in the hoard. It still remains a pretty rare coin especially in the high AU grades. I paid just a tad over $37k for mine. The other 58 CAC that sold has resurfaced and is for sale at the upcoming FUN auction in 3 weeks. That one sold for just over $40k back in 2022. It will be interesting to see where it sells.
My guess is that it will go for $40k+. Let's see what happens...