I got a silver medal at 11:02 central time and will have to wait to see if it is a Privy with the signed COA. What is the old sayn - it wasn't for bad luck I wouldn't have any luck at all. I will know when it is delivered.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
If I get the Privy one, I will list it on eBay for $10,000 (I'm sure I would get this price one day) especially once articles and books start writing about this low mintage privy medal. However, if I do not get the Privy one then no problem, I like the design anyway so I will keep it (sometime we spend more than that on dinners or car gas).
From the first reported order number 14839** to the last thus far 14859**
Only 20,000 orders—if they were all for this coin—that’s 20,000 coins sold.
Based on mintage of 75,000 less 10% for ABPP dealers 7500 = 67500 available.
Less orders posted on this blog -20,000
= 47,500 remain.
Available stock showing a smaller 37,061? Available for sale.
Anyway—none of this is science, just estimates. But it appears that at least 1/2 the mintage remains.
This will drag on.
I think the mint did a nice job brokering people into the website! got the "holding your spot in line" queue message and got my silver, in and out, no problems. Love the design and looking forward to getting it
I entered waiting room at 12:12 and forgot about it for two hours—it waited for me to place my order.
I thank you guys for putting down your points. I’m more informed and still as dumb, though..
I see from @Creg's post that I could get an MS70 coin in an NGC holder for $179.99 or PCGS holder for only $$189.95. The best bet though, would be to go all in for an MS70 in a CAC holder for only $233.99. Everyone knows that a CAC coin in the same grade holder is a full point higher than a PCGS coin and a point and a half grade higher than an NGC graded coin.
@SONOMOSCA said:
PCGS has already graded 786 of these medals, and 34 (4.3%) are with the privy mark.
With only 1794 (2.4%) privy marks of the 75k being minted, I believe our chances have worsened.
These medals are already in dealers' hands???
😡
Yes. As I've been telling anyone who will listen, the fact that Advance Release coins were being offered for pre-sale means they also made these available to the bulk purchasers.
Which is total BS, because that means they get to play risk free, since they are guaranteed to get 2-3 privys for every 100 purchased. OTOH, this is how the Mint solved its return problem, since I do not believe dealers buying at a discount through the bulk purchase program get return privileges. At least for a significant portion of the mintage.
The only good news here is that this means a lot more regular medals will be out in the wild than would otherwise be the case. The folks paying thousands for the privy are going to be subsidizing the rest of us, insofar as there is no way dealers will each sit on hundreds or thousands of these indefinitely.
They will dump them on the market in a way the Mint never would, and I think they will be readily available, far below $104 each, within a month or so, as dealers rush to liquidate before interest dries up altogether.
@coinhack said:
I see from @Creg's post that I could get an MS70 coin in an NGC holder for $179.99 or PCGS holder for only $$189.95. The best bet though, would be to go all in for an MS70 in a CAC holder for only $233.99. Everyone knows that a CAC coin in the same grade holder is a full point higher than a PCGS coin and a point and a half grade higher than an NGC graded coin.
@MsMorrisine said:
if 75,000 don't sell out in minutes and the waiting room is open with a 1 min wait, how valuable will the 1794 be?
What does 75K have to do with 1794?
75K will absolutely sell out, because people will take their shot. Especially if they can buy in quantity at 12:01 tomorrow.
After that, retail buyers will bury the Mint in returns, while dealers will dump their unwanted inventory on the market. That takes care of the 73,206 rounds that are overpriced at $104 each, but says nothing about the 1794 special ones. That will be a separate market, as it always is with things like this.
@JimTyler said:
Would anyone here have the 🏀 🏀 to return a $100 coin because they didn’t hit the winner. I don’t have a set that big. Maybe you can find a speck so you can claim damaged and get postage refunded also.
I believe many will, if the Mint allows it, as they apparently will, and if you are willing to eat the postage. And, I do not believe it takes 🏀 🏀 at all.
The Mint allowed the dealers to play risk free by permitting them to buy in sufficient quantity, in advance, to guarantee them a few winners. The retail version of the risk free lottery is being able to return the losers, since we are not guaranteed to get any winners.
They will dump them on the market in a way the Mint never would, and I think they will be readily available, far below $104 each, within a month or so, as dealers rush to liquidate before interest dries up altogether.
I listened. I figured that if I did not buy now chances at a privy vanish. The tickle from the gamble is the hair that tipped the balance. That ticket cost me $104.00 minus the price they carry in six months.
You guys have to buy a lot more to prove Jerse wrong, I think.
For my collection, any of the four TPGs will do.
@coiner said:
From the first reported order number 14839** to the last thus far 14859**
Only 20,000 orders—if they were all for this coin—that’s 20,000 coins sold.
Based on mintage of 75,000 less 10% for ABPP dealers 7500 = 67500 available.
Less orders posted on this blog -20,000
= 47,500 remain.
Available stock showing a smaller 37,061? Available for sale.
Anyway—none of this is science, just estimates. But it appears that at least 1/2 the mintage remains.
This will drag on.
Nope. 10% is just ABPP. After that there is still bulk purchase. That counter seems to be stuck at 37K for a while now. I'm not sure I would rely on it.
That said, I am surprised things have gone as smoothly as they have. And that anything is available 3+ hours after release. Maybe there is something to people shunning medals after all.
@coiner said:
Available limit seems to be 37,061 at 1:52pm
I suspect many of these will be available post HHL removal tomorrow
37k orders is a lot of orders to process in 2 hours.
True. But they seem to have solved their past issues. Because you can rest assured they got slammed at noon, and nothing crashed, no one got kicked out, and the waiting room cleared in short order.
The fact that number has been stuck at 37K for a while now tells me it is not a dynamic number, and might mean nothing. Because we know they sold a lot to dealers in advance, and have selling them to us, one at a time, for 3.5 hours now.
Hard to believe they actually still have 37K left. If they do, then these might turn out to be real dogs. But I'm just not there, because I think they could have sold 37K without the gimmick, and we all know the gimmick significantly goosed sales.
@MsMorrisine said:
if 75,000 don't sell out in minutes and the waiting room is open with a 1 min wait, how valuable will the 1794 be?
What does 75K have to do with 1794?
75K will absolutely sell out, because people will take their shot. Especially if they can buy in quantity at 12:01 tomorrow.
My gut feeling is the Mint will not go crazy raising the HHL.
That would only mean more retail return hell for them.
If I was in charge of online Mint orders and the item didn't sell out in 24 hours, I would raise the HHL to a maximum 5 medals, if that.
Who knows, sales may continue to trickle in through the evening hours as folks get home and get wind of the new Mint widget that is raising quite a ruckus.
@treybenedict said:
The remaining stock is 9528 units. The loaded stock was not the full mintage minus ABPP. It'll likely close out tomorrow morning.
Just curious how you found out this number. Unless you are able to purchase 10,000 of these units, and the mint website said you can only have 9528, it would be interesting to know how to determine the remaining stock for future reference. (Stocklevel was the way I previously tracked this number).
@SilverPlatinum said:
If I get the Privy one, I will list it on eBay for $10,000 (I'm sure I would get this price one day) especially once articles and books start writing about this low mintage privy medal. However, if I do not get the Privy one then no problem, I like the design anyway so I will keep it (sometime we spend more than that on dinners or car gas).
I spend a.lpt on truck gas too.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
@coinhack said:
I see from @Creg's post that I could get an MS70 coin in an NGC holder for $179.99 or PCGS holder for only $$189.95. The best bet though, would be to go all in for an MS70 in a CAC holder for only $233.99. Everyone knows that a CAC coin in the same grade holder is a full point higher than a PCGS coin and a point and a half grade higher than an NGC graded coin.
Does that mean the CACG piece is a MS71?
Yes it does. And it is a 71.5 compared to the NGC.
@MsMorrisine said:
if 75,000 don't sell out in minutes and the waiting room is open with a 1 min wait, how valuable will the 1794 be?
What does 75K have to do with 1794?
75K will absolutely sell out, because people will take their shot. Especially if they can buy in quantity at 12:01 tomorrow.
My gut feeling is the Mint will not go crazy raising the HHL.
That would only mean more retail return hell for them.
If I was in charge of online Mint orders and the item didn't sell out in 24 hours, I would raise the HHL to a maximum 5 medals, if that.
Who knows, sales may continue to trickle in through the evening hours as folks get home and get wind of the new Mint widget that is raising quite a ruckus.
Tomorrow noon will be interesting.
is
Respectfully disagree. HHLs are to try to ensure fair and wide distribution. Not to control returns.
This is a unique situation, and they could have controlled returns by forbidding them, but they chose not to. Since they ARE taking returns, 5 is 5x more efficient than 1, 25 is 5x more efficient than 5, and 100 is 4x more efficient than 25.
If they still have stock at noon tomorrow, I think the Mint is just going to want to blow them out. If they really have less than 9500 now, the discussion is academic, since there will either be none left at noon tomorrow, or there will be so few that they will be gone very quickly if the Mint does anything at all with the HHL.
@SONOMOSCA said:
PCGS has already graded 786 of these medals, and 34 (4.3%) are with the privy mark.
With only 1794 (2.4%) privy marks of the 75k being minted, I believe our chances have worsened.
These medals are already in dealers' hands???
😡
Yes. As I've been telling anyone who will listen, the fact that Advance Release coins were being offered for pre-sale means they also made these available to the bulk purchasers.
Which is total BS, because that means they get to play risk free, since they are guaranteed to get 2-3 privys for every 100 purchased. OTOH, this is how the Mint solved its return problem, since I do not believe dealers buying at a discount through the bulk purchase program get return privileges. At least for a significant portion of the mintage.
The only good news here is that this means a lot more regular medals will be out in the wild than would otherwise be the case. The folks paying thousands for the privy are going to be subsidizing the rest of us, insofar as there is no way dealers will each sit on hundreds or thousands of these indefinitely.
They will dump them on the market in a way the Mint never would, and I think they will be readily available, far below $104 each, within a month or so, as dealers rush to liquidate before interest dries up altogether.
You’re really sizzling those little neurons in your head over a hundred dollar coin.
@SONOMOSCA said:
PCGS has already graded 786 of these medals, and 34 (4.3%) are with the privy mark.
With only 1794 (2.4%) privy marks of the 75k being minted, I believe our chances have worsened.
These medals are already in dealers' hands???
😡
Yes. As I've been telling anyone who will listen, the fact that Advance Release coins were being offered for pre-sale means they also made these available to the bulk purchasers.
Which is total BS, because that means they get to play risk free, since they are guaranteed to get 2-3 privys for every 100 purchased. OTOH, this is how the Mint solved its return problem, since I do not believe dealers buying at a discount through the bulk purchase program get return privileges. At least for a significant portion of the mintage.
The only good news here is that this means a lot more regular medals will be out in the wild than would otherwise be the case. The folks paying thousands for the privy are going to be subsidizing the rest of us, insofar as there is no way dealers will each sit on hundreds or thousands of these indefinitely.
They will dump them on the market in a way the Mint never would, and I think they will be readily available, far below $104 each, within a month or so, as dealers rush to liquidate before interest dries up altogether.
You’re really sizzling those little neurons in your head over a hundred dollar coin.
Actually, it's a multi thousand dollar medal, but, yeah! 😀
I'd have liked the opportunity to buy 100 for $10,400, and be guaranteed to get 2-3 with privys. As I'm sure many others would as well.
@MsMorrisine said:
if 75,000 don't sell out in minutes and the waiting room is open with a 1 min wait, how valuable will the 1794 be?
What does 75K have to do with 1794?
75K will absolutely sell out, because people will take their shot. Especially if they can buy in quantity at 12:01 tomorrow.
My gut feeling is the Mint will not go crazy raising the HHL.
That would only mean more retail return hell for them.
If I was in charge of online Mint orders and the item didn't sell out in 24 hours, I would raise the HHL to a maximum 5 medals, if that.
Who knows, sales may continue to trickle in through the evening hours as folks get home and get wind of the new Mint widget that is raising quite a ruckus.
Tomorrow noon will be interesting.
is
Respectfully disagree. HHLs are to try to ensure fair and wide distribution. Not to control returns.
This is a unique situation, and they could have controlled returns by forbidding them, but they chose not to. Since they ARE taking returns, 5 is 5x more efficient than 1, 25 is 5x more efficient than 5, and 100 is 4x more efficient than 25.
I see your point. I've always sold high ticket commercial equipment in my life, it's hard to grasp the retail mindset it appears.
Comments
I’ll buy a ‘no privy’ medal for $35 with the OGP if anyone doesn’t want to return theirs….only interested in one though….lol 🤔😬
At 12:55 that stocklevel number is the same 37061. I do not know how frequent that number updates.
Got mine.
The process was so quick and painless. 🍻
Got mine painlessly upon open.
Once you get the email confirmation, then they tell you the news.......
I got a silver medal at 11:02 central time and will have to wait to see if it is a Privy with the signed COA. What is the old sayn - it wasn't for bad luck I wouldn't have any luck at all. I will know when it is delivered.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
I just went to the product page and added one with no wait at 1:37 EST. I have no plans to complete the purchase.
My Carson City Morgan Registry Set
Available limit seems to be 37,061 at 1:52pm
I suspect many of these will be available post HHL removal tomorrow
If I get the Privy one, I will list it on eBay for $10,000 (I'm sure I would get this price one day) especially once articles and books start writing about this low mintage privy medal. However, if I do not get the Privy one then no problem, I like the design anyway so I will keep it (sometime we spend more than that on dinners or car gas).
From the first reported order number 14839** to the last thus far 14859**
Only 20,000 orders—if they were all for this coin—that’s 20,000 coins sold.
Based on mintage of 75,000 less 10% for ABPP dealers 7500 = 67500 available.
Less orders posted on this blog -20,000
= 47,500 remain.
Available stock showing a smaller 37,061? Available for sale.
Anyway—none of this is science, just estimates. But it appears that at least 1/2 the mintage remains.
This will drag on.
I got mine.
First Strike going to be an issue? or will ppl just buy fs/fdoi/ar from the big guys?
37k orders is a lot of orders to process in 2 hours.
I'm sure PCGS will take the delay into consideration.
still available as of 835 am HST
@Goldbully: email PCGS to correct that $1 denom on the silver medal (maybe they would give you free grading for that).....
I think the mint did a nice job brokering people into the website! got the "holding your spot in line" queue message and got my silver, in and out, no problems. Love the design and looking forward to getting it
Acknowledgment at 9:01am and confirmation at 9:20am.
I entered waiting room at 12:12 and forgot about it for two hours—it waited for me to place my order.
I thank you guys for putting down your points. I’m more informed and still as dumb, though..
I went four pages deep, there are more.
I see from @Creg's post that I could get an MS70 coin in an NGC holder for $179.99 or PCGS holder for only $$189.95. The best bet though, would be to go all in for an MS70 in a CAC holder for only $233.99. Everyone knows that a CAC coin in the same grade holder is a full point higher than a PCGS coin and a point and a half grade higher than an NGC graded coin.
Yes. As I've been telling anyone who will listen, the fact that Advance Release coins were being offered for pre-sale means they also made these available to the bulk purchasers.
Which is total BS, because that means they get to play risk free, since they are guaranteed to get 2-3 privys for every 100 purchased. OTOH, this is how the Mint solved its return problem, since I do not believe dealers buying at a discount through the bulk purchase program get return privileges. At least for a significant portion of the mintage.
The only good news here is that this means a lot more regular medals will be out in the wild than would otherwise be the case. The folks paying thousands for the privy are going to be subsidizing the rest of us, insofar as there is no way dealers will each sit on hundreds or thousands of these indefinitely.
They will dump them on the market in a way the Mint never would, and I think they will be readily available, far below $104 each, within a month or so, as dealers rush to liquidate before interest dries up altogether.
There will not be buy offers, other than for the privys. Dealers already got theirs, which is why you are already seeing them in the pop reports.
Does that mean the CACG piece is a MS71?
What does 75K have to do with 1794?
75K will absolutely sell out, because people will take their shot. Especially if they can buy in quantity at 12:01 tomorrow.
After that, retail buyers will bury the Mint in returns, while dealers will dump their unwanted inventory on the market. That takes care of the 73,206 rounds that are overpriced at $104 each, but says nothing about the 1794 special ones. That will be a separate market, as it always is with things like this.
I believe many will, if the Mint allows it, as they apparently will, and if you are willing to eat the postage. And, I do not believe it takes 🏀 🏀 at all.
The Mint allowed the dealers to play risk free by permitting them to buy in sufficient quantity, in advance, to guarantee them a few winners. The retail version of the risk free lottery is being able to return the losers, since we are not guaranteed to get any winners.
I listened. I figured that if I did not buy now chances at a privy vanish. The tickle from the gamble is the hair that tipped the balance. That ticket cost me $104.00 minus the price they carry in six months.
You guys have to buy a lot more to prove Jerse wrong, I think.
For my collection, any of the four TPGs will do.
That's funny, but don't be shocked if the actual prices settles around $70.
Nope. 10% is just ABPP. After that there is still bulk purchase. That counter seems to be stuck at 37K for a while now. I'm not sure I would rely on it.
That said, I am surprised things have gone as smoothly as they have. And that anything is available 3+ hours after release. Maybe there is something to people shunning medals after all.
NEVER. They wants their moneys. They will not start the clock until people start receiving them.
The remaining stock is 9528 units. The loaded stock was not the full mintage minus ABPP. It'll likely close out tomorrow morning.
True. But they seem to have solved their past issues. Because you can rest assured they got slammed at noon, and nothing crashed, no one got kicked out, and the waiting room cleared in short order.
The fact that number has been stuck at 37K for a while now tells me it is not a dynamic number, and might mean nothing. Because we know they sold a lot to dealers in advance, and have selling them to us, one at a time, for 3.5 hours now.
Hard to believe they actually still have 37K left. If they do, then these might turn out to be real dogs. But I'm just not there, because I think they could have sold 37K without the gimmick, and we all know the gimmick significantly goosed sales.
Thank you sharp eyed one, Done.
😊
My gut feeling is the Mint will not go crazy raising the HHL.
That would only mean more retail return hell for them.
If I was in charge of online Mint orders and the item didn't sell out in 24 hours, I would raise the HHL to a maximum 5 medals, if that.
Who knows, sales may continue to trickle in through the evening hours as folks get home and get wind of the new Mint widget that is raising quite a ruckus.
Tomorrow noon will be interesting.
Just curious how you found out this number. Unless you are able to purchase 10,000 of these units, and the mint website said you can only have 9528, it would be interesting to know how to determine the remaining stock for future reference. (Stocklevel was the way I previously tracked this number).
If true the sellout should post early this evening.
I spend a.lpt on truck gas too.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
As of 4:50 ET silver order USM148775xx
Regarding the proof gold… any thoughts if may be unfrosted proof?
"Government agency turns a profit today."
That should be the headline.
Easy. Got mine with zero issues, still some left
Yes it does. And it is a 71.5 compared to the NGC.
Respectfully disagree. HHLs are to try to ensure fair and wide distribution. Not to control returns.
This is a unique situation, and they could have controlled returns by forbidding them, but they chose not to. Since they ARE taking returns, 5 is 5x more efficient than 1, 25 is 5x more efficient than 5, and 100 is 4x more efficient than 25.
If they still have stock at noon tomorrow, I think the Mint is just going to want to blow them out. If they really have less than 9500 now, the discussion is academic, since there will either be none left at noon tomorrow, or there will be so few that they will be gone very quickly if the Mint does anything at all with the HHL.
27.12% MS69 non-privy FH seems a bit high for the dealer class.
Are the TPG's going to be tough on these medals?
Is the quality not quite there on this issue?
I wonder how many 69's or less will be out there for the retail crowd.
You’re really sizzling those little neurons in your head over a hundred dollar coin.
Actually, it's a multi thousand dollar medal, but, yeah! 😀
I'd have liked the opportunity to buy 100 for $10,400, and be guaranteed to get 2-3 with privys. As I'm sure many others would as well.
I’m hoping for a 58 so I can sell to the lowball crowd
I see your point. I've always sold high ticket commercial equipment in my life, it's hard to grasp the retail mindset it appears.
😉
34 graded privy/ 752 graded is 4.5% vs the 2.4% population.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics. You cannot draw any conclusions from 1% of the sample size (752/75,000).