For the dealers who get access at large pre-buys, does the US Mint allocate how many privy marked coins they get, or are they mixed in with all the 75,000 medals so the chance of a winner is equally distributed?
@coiner said:
business models is....sell what you can ; collect the proceeds, then fill your orders ---customers knowing its presale....to be filled a month or so later----and keep the profit. seems to work.
Works for the seller if he can buy for less than what he is selling for. have ordered from people like that in the past who have just cancelled order when they could not obtain coins at a cheaper price than his listing. In my opinion preselling coins you don't have to sell is a SCAM.
This ^^^ is why I would NEVER buy on a pre-sale, unless it's from a well known, reputable dealer who you know will make good, even if they have to take a loss to do so.
With most sellers, it's a one-way option. They will stick you if it's good for them, and renege if it isn't.
Got to watch those sellers on Ebay! You come to expect someone not delivering coins when it isnt to their benefit, price too low, or, some error is found and they plan to market the piece at a much higher rate. Expect this from sellers with little experience and small timers.
What I absolutely cant stand is a well known dealer playing this trick. I wont mention who - but I've had this happen to me with a well known delaer taking presale orders for a certain coin; telling you he doesnt have enough to ship to all of his buyers, but was selling the same coin for inflated prices under his ebay handle.
Also had a well known dealer sell me a coin on ebay, when received it was the exact coin viewed online in a third party holder---however, the dealer photoshopped (removed) a hit on the obverse of the coin. It was in an NGC holder - I was able to look it up (photo) on NGC site and compare the photos. What a sc**bag. I would never do business with that jerk again.
@coiner said:
Got to watch those sellers on Ebay! You come to expect someone not delivering coins when it isnt to their benefit, price too low, or, some error is found and they plan to market the piece at a much higher rate. Expect this from sellers with little experience and small timers.
What I absolutely cant stand is a well known dealer playing this trick. I wont mention who - but I've had this happen to me with a well known delaer taking presale orders for a certain coin; telling you he doesnt have enough to ship to all of his buyers, but was selling the same coin for inflated prices under his ebay handle.
Also had a well known dealer sell me a coin on ebay, when received it was the exact coin viewed online in a third party holder---however, the dealer photoshopped (removed) a hit on the obverse of the coin. It was in an NGC holder - I was able to look it up (photo) on NGC site and compare the photos. What a sc**bag. I would never do business with that jerk again.
I agree. And all I'm saying is that a well known dealer with a decent reputation will go into the secondary market to secure inventory, and take a loss, if necessary, to fill pre-sale orders. Unless the pre-sale specifically stated that orders will only be filled if the seller cannot get more for the coin after the order is taken.
No reputable dealer, well known or not, would do what was done to you. Because any modern issue can be obtained at any time, for a price. So "doesn't have enough to ship to all of his buyers" is not really a thing.
"Can make more money by diverting a coin already sold to you, and telling you "tough s**t" is." Which is what it is, and it's often not worth suing over it. But it's not the conduct of a reputable dealer.
The solution is to have a little patience and wait for the dust to settle with hot new issues, rather than thinking you are going to get a deal. Most times you will get burned, either because the dealer won't fill the order, OR because your deal wasn't actually a deal after all.
@goldbuffalo said:
I’m sure the mint didn’t think of this all by themselves. I’m sure dealers who have the mints ear probably had something to do with it.
Totally agree. Obviously, they wanted to whip up some excitement, because it would otherwise be a little embarrassing to have half the mintage sit unsold. Which would have been highly likely to happen with 75K being offered at $104, given how similar products sell.
After coming up with the idea of seeding the inventory with privy marks, and limiting sales to 1 per customer, that's when the dealers, who, after all, are their marketing partners, sprang into action. Knowing how much a limited mintage of under 2K would command in the secondary market, they wanted to guarantee themselves an allocation of privys.
Having to compete with the unwashed masses and the bots, like with the WWII 75th anniversary AGEs, just wouldn't do. So they got the Mint to include this in the Advance Release, and likely bulk sales programs. To my knowledge, this has never before happened with anything that was released with a HHL of 1, but I might be wrong about that.
In any event, it has certainly never happened with anything with a mintage of 1794. It's total BS, and a giveaway to the Big Boys. Sure, a few of us will get lucky, but they have a guarantee. And that's just not fair. Shame on the Mint. Because without the masses that they poop all over, nothing they make is worth anything other than intrinsic value.
Quite a few completed sales for Flowing hair gold on ebay in various formats - all PR70's, but ranging from 5,000 to 6500+
Interesting situation. At 17,500 mintage and 1 per HH on Day1; the prices shouldnt be as strong on the pre sale secondary. You would expect your normal bump of $300-$400 over issue for a certified 70 (ER/FS) The prices reflect 1500-2500 over, which would lead some to believe this issue might sellout quick or be a little harder to obtain.
@coiner said:
Quite a few completed sales for Flowing hair gold on ebay in various formats - all PR70's, but ranging from 5,000 to 6500+
Interesting situation. At 17,500 mintage and 1 per HH on Day1; the prices shouldnt be as strong on the pre sale secondary. You would expect your normal bump of $300-$400 over issue for a certified 70 (ER/FS) The prices reflect 1500-2500 over, which would lead some to believe this issue might sellout quick or be a little harder to obtain.
Respectfully disagree with your analysis. With a mintage of 17.5K, and a selling price of approximately $1,000 above the historic value of an ounce of gold, the issue is not going to sell out quickly, if at all. The Mint is sure hoping it will, and an initial HHL of 1 is designed to get people like you to think exactly what you are thinking.
OTOH, the dealers are in the best position to know. And they are striking while the iron is hot. The people buying at these prices are what is called "the stupid money." And the smart money is feeding them while they can. Because the game will be over an hour after these go on sale, and they are still available. And then again when the HHL is lifted the next day, and they remain available.
They need to be the first on the block to have the shiny new coin, and/or they don't understand the intersection between value and mintage on modern Mint issues. They are extrapolating from recent issues with a mintage of 12.5K, and think they are getting fair value at ~$6K. They are not.
When the dust settles, these will be going for ~$4,500 in PR70. And, will not represent good value at that price.
As you suggested, long term value for something like this will be a few hundred dollars above spot, whatever that happens to be at any given point in time. So, yeah, these will be great deals if and when gold goes north of $6K. I'm not holding my breath.
NJ Coin - I've been in this game a long time. Played the odds with the best of the best on this site in the heydey of moderns 2000-2008. Anniversary Eagle Issues / 08 W Buffs / W Plats. I dont reveal my old handle for a reason.
Remember, everyone has their own opinion. We will see what happens soon enough.
I am also suspicious of the price potential of the 1,794 pivy marked silvers. I just cant see a 3,000+ dollar potential (70/FS) for this medal. in fact, that is the key drag.....it is a medal. Maybe a target of $1500 bucks? Anything more, imo, is a stretch - -but obviously there will be a few outlier sales that are high.
I do not think this gold version will sellout and I do not believe it is not worth paying $4,500+ for an early one in 70 either.
I do not even like the look of the gold coin as shown in current photos (uncirculated looking).
None of the images I have seen show a proper DCAM version. I think the DCAM will be a much better-looking coin and when they post some real photos of it, my guess is more will want to get involved.
Still, it is very expensive above spot, and I doubt 17,500 collectors have an extra $3,500 to buy a raw one.
@coiner said:
4500 isnt bad on a ~3400 coin with about a 100 dollar grading fee.
If you say so. To me, $4,500 on a modern coin with a mintage of 17.5K, a very high rate of 70s, $2,600 worth of gold, and around a $10 grading fee for the people submitting in bulk represents terrible value, but YMMV.
@coiner said:
we will see on wednesday. I dont think this will be a day 1 sellout (of course not) - but I believe this coin will sellout with 1-2 weeks.
If you don't think it will be a Day One sellout, why would you say "the prices reflect 1500-2500 over, which would lead some to believe this issue might sellout quick or be a little harder to obtain"? 1-2 weeks is not a "quick sellout," and would actually mean the coins are quite easy to obtain.
The prices reflect nothing more than stupidity on the part of the buyers. And, of course, the sellers are merely taking advantage of that.
As I said before, some don't know how to do anything other than copy and paste. Without doing any analysis at all. They see that recent similar issues have done quite well, basically doubling from their issue price.
So the assumption from some is that these will do the same. Unfortunately, the simple fact remains that the upper limit for a single new issue one ounce gold coin is not infinite. The mintage on these is around 50% higher than on the coins it is being compared to, and the price of gold is up around 30%+ from when those other coins were issued.
And THAT is going to put a cap on what these coins are ultimately worth. I don't even think they will be worth the original issue price, which is already going to be around 40% above intrinsic value. So I certainly don't think they will be worth any premium at all above that.
Which is why I am not a buyer. Not from the Mint in OGP at $3600. Not in a PR 70 slab at $4500. And certainly not in a pre-sale at $5-6K+.
@coiner said:
I am also suspicious of the price potential of the 1,794 pivy marked silvers. I just cant see a 3,000+ dollar potential (70/FS) for this medal. in fact, that is the key drag.....it is a medal. Maybe a target of $1500 bucks? Anything more, imo, is a stretch - -but obviously there will be a few outlier sales that are high.
With all due respect, you are wrong. Some people get hung up on medal vs. coin. Many don't.
At the end of the day, they are the same thing, on the same planchet, from the same Mint. Coin vs. medal is a legal technicality that means nothing unless you want to take 4 of them to the grocery store to buy a gallon of milk with. Which no one does.
This is a non-circulating tribute to the country's first silver dollar. The key to the value is that the Mint is only going to be making 1794 of them. Not that it's not going to say $1 on it.
They will be worth far more than $1500 raw, let alone MS70. Period.
@coiner said:
4500 isnt bad on a ~3400 coin with about a 100 dollar grading fee.
What exactly makes it a $3400 coin though? Its basal value is spot, and I could be convinced that the floor is about 10-20% higher but I see it as a terrible value for $4500. This is not my area of expertise however, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
You could buy a nice coin for that amount of cash. Type 1 eagles and double eagles, branch mint gold, early and seated dollars. I can’t really say whether it’s too much dealer markup without knowing the rate of MS70s vs 69s, but like NJ said, $4500 I would be a bit aggressive if the 70 rate is good. I guess it all demands on the secondary market value of the 69s.
@coiner said:
I am also suspicious of the price potential of the 1,794 pivy marked silvers. I just cant see a 3,000+ dollar potential (70/FS) for this medal. in fact, that is the key drag.....it is a medal. Maybe a target of $1500 bucks? Anything more, imo, is a stretch - -but obviously there will be a few outlier sales that are high.
With all due respect, you are wrong. Some people get hung up on medal vs. coin. Many don't.
At the end of the day, they are the same thing, on the same planchet, from the same Mint. Coin vs. medal is a legal technicality that means nothing unless you want to take 4 of them to the grocery store to buy a gallon of milk with. Which no one does.
This is a non-circulating tribute to the country's first silver dollar. The key to the value is that the Mint is only going to be making 1794 of them. Not that it's not going to say $1 on it.
They will be worth far more than $1500 raw, let alone MS70. Period.
We will see who is correct and who isnt very soon. I dont know how long you've been at this game with moderns, but, I have seen this scenario play out time and time again.
Don't kid yourself. Coin vs Medal is a HUGE thing.
@coiner said:
we will see on wednesday. I dont think this will be a day 1 sellout (of course not) - but I believe this coin will sellout with 1-2 weeks.
If you don't think it will be a Day One sellout, why would you say "the prices reflect 1500-2500 over, which would lead some to believe this issue might sellout quick or be a little harder to obtain"? 1-2 weeks is not a "quick sellout," and would actually mean the coins are quite easy to obtain.
The prices reflect nothing more than stupidity on the part of the buyers. And, of course, the sellers are merely taking advantage of that.
As I said before, some don't know how to do anything other than copy and paste. Without doing any analysis at all. They see that recent similar issues have done quite well, basically doubling from their issue price.
So the assumption from some is that these will do the same. Unfortunately, the simple fact remains that the upper limit for a single new issue one ounce gold coin is not infinite. The mintage on these is around 50% higher than on the coins it is being compared to, and the price of gold is up around 30%+ from when those other coins were issued.
And THAT is going to put a cap on what these coins are ultimately worth. I don't even think they will be worth the original issue price, which is already going to be around 40% above intrinsic value. So I certainly don't think they will be worth any premium at all above that.
Which is why I am not a buyer. Not from the Mint in OGP at $3600. Not in a PR 70 slab at $4500. And certainly not in a pre-sale at $5-6K+.
First off, it's a limit of ONE for the first 24 hours.
Secondly, they will not sellout of 10,000 or more Day 2.
It can take a week or two. It's a very popular design. Maybe they will never sellout and we will be surprised by a backorder status that doesnt get filled by year end (i.e. initial production....probably on the order of 7,500 coins sells and no more produced).
Anyone who says the affordability isnt there----well just look as far as your wallet.....everyone and their brother has a credit card with a high limit. It's amazing what people throw on the old plastic for the chance of making a profit.
I say these land in the 4500 range for 70's. Not a bad profit - where are you getting a 25% profit in a monthor two these days?
I'm not in for the long term hold. In and out. Take the profit, maybe just keep one for free.
@SilverPlatinum said:
**_FYI: Here is the anticipated waitroom on Tuesday October 15th
Great info @SilverPlatinum. The one question I have is what page to be on to get into the waiting room. Should I wait on the actual product page?
You won't make it to the product page once they implement the waiting room. You will either be ushered into the waiting room from the home page, or when you go to sign in.
If you are anywhere else once they implement the waiting room, you will be kicked off the site. This is how they stop people from doing an end run around the waiting room. Once you are granted entrance to the website from the waiting room, you will be able to freely navigate around the entire site, so you don't need to be anywhere special.
Bottom line -- the waiting room is not product specific. It is site wide, once it is implemented.
@coiner said:
I am also suspicious of the price potential of the 1,794 pivy marked silvers. I just cant see a 3,000+ dollar potential (70/FS) for this medal. in fact, that is the key drag.....it is a medal. Maybe a target of $1500 bucks? Anything more, imo, is a stretch - -but obviously there will be a few outlier sales that are high.
With all due respect, you are wrong. Some people get hung up on medal vs. coin. Many don't.
At the end of the day, they are the same thing, on the same planchet, from the same Mint. Coin vs. medal is a legal technicality that means nothing unless you want to take 4 of them to the grocery store to buy a gallon of milk with. Which no one does.
This is a non-circulating tribute to the country's first silver dollar. The key to the value is that the Mint is only going to be making 1794 of them. Not that it's not going to say $1 on it.
They will be worth far more than $1500 raw, let alone MS70. Period.
We will see who is correct and who isnt very soon. I dont know how long you've been at this game with moderns, but, I have seen this scenario play out time and time again.
Don't kid yourself. Coin vs Medal is a HUGE thing.
I've been at this long enough to know what I am talking about. And yes, we will see in 24 hours just how HUGE coin vs. medal is for this issue.
@coiner said:
I am also suspicious of the price potential of the 1,794 pivy marked silvers. I just cant see a 3,000+ dollar potential (70/FS) for this medal. in fact, that is the key drag.....it is a medal. Maybe a target of $1500 bucks? Anything more, imo, is a stretch - -but obviously there will be a few outlier sales that are high.
With all due respect, you are wrong. Some people get hung up on medal vs. coin. Many don't.
At the end of the day, they are the same thing, on the same planchet, from the same Mint. Coin vs. medal is a legal technicality that means nothing unless you want to take 4 of them to the grocery store to buy a gallon of milk with. Which no one does.
This is a non-circulating tribute to the country's first silver dollar. The key to the value is that the Mint is only going to be making 1794 of them. Not that it's not going to say $1 on it.
They will be worth far more than $1500 raw, let alone MS70. Period.
We will see who is correct and who isnt very soon. I dont know how long you've been at this game with moderns, but, I have seen this scenario play out time and time again.
Don't kid yourself. Coin vs Medal is a HUGE thing.
It is and has been for a long time. This medal is of the original U.S. Mint design for our first silver dollar "coin".
It IS different in that regard. I have never been interested in medals from the U.S. Mint or anywhere else.
Great info @SilverPlatinum. The one question I have is what page to be on to get into the waiting room. Should I wait on the actual product page?
You won't make it to the product page once they implement the waiting room. You will either be ushered into the waiting room from the home page, or when you go to sign in.
If you are anywhere else once they implement the waiting room, you will be kicked off the site. This is how they stop people from doing an end run around the waiting room. Once you are granted entrance to the website from the waiting room, you will be able to freely navigate around the entire site, so you don't need to be anywhere special.
Bottom line -- the waiting room is not product specific. It is site wide, once it is implemented.
Thank you @NJCoin. I guess I'll give it a shot. Good luck everyone.
@coiner said:
I am also suspicious of the price potential of the 1,794 pivy marked silvers. I just cant see a 3,000+ dollar potential (70/FS) for this medal. in fact, that is the key drag.....it is a medal. Maybe a target of $1500 bucks? Anything more, imo, is a stretch - -but obviously there will be a few outlier sales that are high.
With all due respect, you are wrong. Some people get hung up on medal vs. coin. Many don't.
At the end of the day, they are the same thing, on the same planchet, from the same Mint. Coin vs. medal is a legal technicality that means nothing unless you want to take 4 of them to the grocery store to buy a gallon of milk with. Which no one does.
This is a non-circulating tribute to the country's first silver dollar. The key to the value is that the Mint is only going to be making 1794 of them. Not that it's not going to say $1 on it.
They will be worth far more than $1500 raw, let alone MS70. Period.
We will see who is correct and who isnt very soon. I dont know how long you've been at this game with moderns, but, I have seen this scenario play out time and time again.
Don't kid yourself. Coin vs Medal is a HUGE thing.
It is and has been for a long time. This medal is of the original U.S. Mint design for our first silver dollar "coin".
It IS different in that regard. I have never been interested in medals from the U.S. Mint or anywhere else.
I am very interested in this release.
Thank you. You are making my point. Medal vs. coin is largely irrelevant for non-circulating collector releases. This one will be popular due to the subject. The fact that it will not say $1 on its face will not make a difference to most people.
What's going to hurt it on the secondary market will be the issue price and quantity minted. Not the fact that it's a medal.
By the same token (pun intended! 😀), the limited mintage of 1794 is going to make the privys a huge winner. Even among those who didn't like the privy mark when it was first announced, before people knew it would be limited to 1794. The fact that it's a medal and not a coin will not diminish its appeal, or its ultimate value, by even a fraction of a cent.
Great info @SilverPlatinum. The one question I have is what page to be on to get into the waiting room. Should I wait on the actual product page?
You won't make it to the product page once they implement the waiting room. You will either be ushered into the waiting room from the home page, or when you go to sign in.
If you are anywhere else once they implement the waiting room, you will be kicked off the site. This is how they stop people from doing an end run around the waiting room. Once you are granted entrance to the website from the waiting room, you will be able to freely navigate around the entire site, so you don't need to be anywhere special.
Bottom line -- the waiting room is not product specific. It is site wide, once it is implemented.
Thank you @NJCoin. I guess I'll give it a shot. Good luck everyone.
Same to you!!! Unfortunately, the Big Boys have already helped themselves to a huge slice of the pie, so there will be far fewer than 75K for the rest of us to fight over.
By the same token (pun intended! 😀), the limited mintage of 1794 is going to make the privys a huge winner. Even among those who didn't like the privy mark when it was first announced, before people knew it would be limited to 1794. The fact that it's a medal and not a coin will not diminish its appeal, or its ultimate value, by even a fraction of a cent.
If this were a "coin" given a true denomination of $1 - the popularity would skyrocket well beyond that of a medal. I dont know how you could even debate that point.
If you could sellout 75,000 of these medals - you would sell double that if it were a coin.
Many collectors just dont like medals. You might as well by a secondary market silver 1 oz round.
There is absolutely no way a medal with a Privy would hold more value than a coin of the same mintage with that same Privy.
Keep convincing yourself otherwise. It's just a wild dream.
Outside of that debate - you could certainly flip this medal with the Privy for a nice profit; but I wouldnt count on long term steady appreciation.
I would really like to know how many medals the dealers got and how many privy marked medals they were guaranteed with their purchase. Talk about an unlevel playing field. I see some sellers on eBay have already sold several for $4K and up. This is just a major slap in the face to the little guy.
By the same token (pun intended! 😀), the limited mintage of 1794 is going to make the privys a huge winner. Even among those who didn't like the privy mark when it was first announced, before people knew it would be limited to 1794. The fact that it's a medal and not a coin will not diminish its appeal, or its ultimate value, by even a fraction of a cent.
If this were a "coin" given a true denomination of $1 - the popularity would skyrocket well beyond that of a medal. I dont know how you could even debate that point.
If you could sellout 75,000 of these medals - you would sell double that if it were a coin.
Many collectors just dont like medals. You might as well by a secondary market silver 1 oz round.
There is absolutely no way a medal with a Privy would hold more value than a coin of the same mintage with that same Privy.
Keep convincing yourself otherwise. It's just a wild dream.
Outside of that debate - you could certainly flip this medal with the Privy for a nice profit; but I wouldnt count on long term steady appreciation.
I don't have to convince myself of anything. When you turn out to be wrong, and raw versions with a privy settle at $3K+, you can then tell yourself it would have been $6K+ if it said $1 on it.
75K of these wouldn't sell out at $104 if they did say $1 on them, and they will on account of the privys. Obscure issues commemorating obscure subjects don't sell, whether or not they are monetized. Most of those so just happen to turn out to be medals. Correlation does not mean causation.
And these will sell out, due to the subject. Had they priced them at $75, they could have easily sold 150K, medal or coin. But they went this route instead.
You arguing they would have sold out more if it was a coin rather than a medal is kind of pointless. As is arguing that the monster premium attached to the medals with a privy would have been even higher if it was a coin will turn out to be objectively wrong, since the premium is already going to be far higher than you imagine.
And it will settle far higher than you imagine as well. Because it's a US Mint tribute to the nation's first silver dollar, with a mintage of 1794. Medal or coin. Just won't matter.
Other than to you, who wouldn't be a buyer at $1,500, $3,000, $6,000, whatever. Regardless of whether it's a coin or a medal. So, honestly, what's the point? You are not the market for these, and the market does not care whether or not they are monetized. No one is going to be spending them.
Because they are going to get several of them. The Big Boys are apparently able to buy through the Advance Release and bulk purchase programs. They get, on average 2-3 with privys for every 100 they are able to buy.
@knovak1976 said:
I would really like to know how many medals the dealers got and how many privy marked medals they were guaranteed with their purchase. Talk about an unlevel playing field. I see some sellers on eBay have already sold several for $4K and up. This is just a major slap in the face to the little guy.
Agreed. And you don't have to wonder. Assuming the distribution is "fair," they will be guaranteed 2.4 with privys for every 100 they buy. While we are subject to a HHL of 1, meaning most of us are guaranteed 0.
This is why, assuming the Mint actually does accept returns, we should all return anything we get that does not have a privy mark. The dealers are allowed to enter a no risk lottery. We should be as well.
@HalfDime said:
It is probably still too early to decide the fate of the gold coin since there has been no description or photos put up on the mint website.
The gold coin is also high relief, while the medal is not.
If they do 1794 with a privy mark in gold then that will change everything.
The silver medal is going to be sold by the TV coin shows as the rarest medal ever depicting a classic coin on TV.
Sure, but don't get your hopes up. The release is a month out. They have announced the mintage, and taken dealer orders. If the were going to do anything "that will change everything," dealers would need that information before placing orders. As a result, not happening.
What you see is exactly what you'll get with these, 17,500 @ around $1,000 above spot gold. You'll be able to buy as many as you want, directly from the Mint, at 12:01 p.m. on 11/15. How many you in for? 😀
By the way, while the Mint has not yet posted pictures, there is a very extensive description on the product page. No reference to a privy mark, unlike the silver medal, because there won't be one on this. People really do need to stop searching for things that just are not there.
By the same token (pun intended! 😀), the limited mintage of 1794 is going to make the privys a huge winner. Even among those who didn't like the privy mark when it was first announced, before people knew it would be limited to 1794. The fact that it's a medal and not a coin will not diminish its appeal, or its ultimate value, by even a fraction of a cent.
If this were a "coin" given a true denomination of $1 - the popularity would skyrocket well beyond that of a medal. I dont know how you could even debate that point.
If you could sellout 75,000 of these medals - you would sell double that if it were a coin.
Many collectors just dont like medals. You might as well by a secondary market silver 1 oz round.
There is absolutely no way a medal with a Privy would hold more value than a coin of the same mintage with that same Privy.
Keep convincing yourself otherwise. It's just a wild dream.
Outside of that debate - you could certainly flip this medal with the Privy for a nice profit; but I wouldnt count on long term steady appreciation.
I don't have to convince myself of anything. When you turn out to be wrong, and raw versions with a privy settle at $3K+, you can then tell yourself it would have been $6K+ if it said $1 on it.
75K of these wouldn't sell out at $104 if they did say $1 on them, and they will on account of the privys. Obscure issues commemorating obscure subjects don't sell, whether or not they are monetized. Most of those so just happen to turn out to be medals. Correlation does not mean causation.
And these will sell out, due to the subject. Had they priced them at $75, they could have easily sold 150K, medal or coin. But they went this route instead.
You arguing they would have sold out more if it was a coin rather than a medal is kind of pointless. As is arguing that the monster premium attached to the medals with a privy would have been even higher if it was a coin will turn out to be objectively wrong, since the premium is already going to be far higher than you imagine.
And it will settle far higher than you imagine as well. Because it's a US Mint tribute to the nation's first silver dollar, with a mintage of 1794. Medal or coin. Just won't matter.
Other than to you, who wouldn't be a buyer at $1,500, $3,000, $6,000, whatever. Regardless of whether it's a coin or a medal. So, honestly, what's the point? You are not the market for these, and the market does not care whether or not they are monetized. No one is going to be spending them.
What a wild dream.
Demand would be much higher if it were monetized. Without secondary market demand - stick a fork in it.
The only hope you have is 75,000 lottery players are out there holding their $104 in their hand for a chance. If there are, expect 50,000 "players" to have a return started the day after delivery of their non-privy medal.
By the same token (pun intended! 😀), the limited mintage of 1794 is going to make the privys a huge winner. Even among those who didn't like the privy mark when it was first announced, before people knew it would be limited to 1794. The fact that it's a medal and not a coin will not diminish its appeal, or its ultimate value, by even a fraction of a cent.
If this were a "coin" given a true denomination of $1 - the popularity would skyrocket well beyond that of a medal. I dont know how you could even debate that point.
If you could sellout 75,000 of these medals - you would sell double that if it were a coin.
Many collectors just dont like medals. You might as well by a secondary market silver 1 oz round.
There is absolutely no way a medal with a Privy would hold more value than a coin of the same mintage with that same Privy.
Keep convincing yourself otherwise. It's just a wild dream.
Outside of that debate - you could certainly flip this medal with the Privy for a nice profit; but I wouldnt count on long term steady appreciation.
I don't have to convince myself of anything. When you turn out to be wrong, and raw versions with a privy settle at $3K+, you can then tell yourself it would have been $6K+ if it said $1 on it.
75K of these wouldn't sell out at $104 if they did say $1 on them, and they will on account of the privys. Obscure issues commemorating obscure subjects don't sell, whether or not they are monetized. Most of those so just happen to turn out to be medals. Correlation does not mean causation.
And these will sell out, due to the subject. Had they priced them at $75, they could have easily sold 150K, medal or coin. But they went this route instead.
You arguing they would have sold out more if it was a coin rather than a medal is kind of pointless. As is arguing that the monster premium attached to the medals with a privy would have been even higher if it was a coin will turn out to be objectively wrong, since the premium is already going to be far higher than you imagine.
And it will settle far higher than you imagine as well. Because it's a US Mint tribute to the nation's first silver dollar, with a mintage of 1794. Medal or coin. Just won't matter.
Other than to you, who wouldn't be a buyer at $1,500, $3,000, $6,000, whatever. Regardless of whether it's a coin or a medal. So, honestly, what's the point? You are not the market for these, and the market does not care whether or not they are monetized. No one is going to be spending them.
What a wild dream.
Demand would be much higher if it were monetized. Without secondary market demand - stick a fork in it.
The only hope you have is 75,000 lottery players are out there holding their $104 in their hand for a chance. If there are, expect 50,000 "players" to have a return started the day after delivery of their non-privy medal.
It's a done deal. A significant number have already been spoken for by the Advance Release and bulk purchase dealers. Whatever is left will be gobbled up as quickly as the website can process orders.
What goes back to the Mint is another story. Because, as I have said repeatedly $104 for anything with a 75K mintage is too high. Medal or coin.
Which has nothing to do with 1794 medals with a privy. Those are going to the moon. The rest will be dumped on the market, where they will settle around $60-75.
Which is where the Mint should have priced them in the first place. Instead they did this. But, given what the ones with a privy will be worth, $104 for the lottery ticket plus the medal without the privy mark is a deal, so they will sell out. Day One. Whether or not the Mint accepts returns.
You're hung up on coin vs. medal, but that has nothing to do with anything I am saying. Or the economics of 75K at $104, or the value of 1794 of anything the Mint pushes out the door.
Because coin is more popular. Says you. If you're right, medals with a privy shouldn't mean anything to anyone, no matter how few are made.
Let's see about that. I say demand is going to be high enough to push 1794 medals sold at $104 to go for thousands upon thousands of dollars in the secondary market. Not sure how much higher you think that would be if the 1794 were coins instead, with the exact same design, privy mark, and mintage.
In fact, I think 1794 medals with $30 worth of silver in them are going to be worth around the same in the secondary market as 17,500 coins with $2,600 worth of gold in them. If not more. What do you think about that? And, if it turns out to be correct, what would that say about whether the market cares about coin vs. medal? 😀
It's a done deal. A significant number have already been spoken for by the Advance Release and bulk purchase dealers. Whatever is left will be gobbled up as quickly as the website can process orders.
10% allocation to ABPP. Thats not a significant portion. It's 10% or 7,500.
If you say so. I count many words on the Mint product page that tells me EXACTLY what these are going to be. And what they won't be.
I am not saying what you claim isn't true, only it is very strange no official pictures on the product page and yet they put up a description already. It would also be strange for them to do a privy only for the silver medal, and not also for the gold.
If you say so. I count many words on the Mint product page that tells me EXACTLY what these are going to be. And what they won't be.
I am not saying what you claim isn't true, only it is very strange no official pictures on the product page and yet they put up a description already. It would also be strange for them to do a privy only for the silver medal, and not also for the gold.
It's all strange, and there is no playbook here. On the rare occasions they have done privys in the past, they did them as totally independent products, not as Cracker Jack prizes in other, related products.
Clearly, they did it here to goose sales of an item they otherwise would have had a difficult time selling 75K of at $104. Apparently, they have no such concerns with the gold coin. Although I think they should. But the answer is either reducing the mintage, or the price. Not running unfair lotteries to reward the dealers and a few lucky members of the public, as they are doing with the silver privy.
In any event, pictures or not, they have posted a full description of the item that includes no mention of a privy. Unlike the silver, which has a chapter and verse description of the privy, as well as a signed COA. If you want to join Linus in the Pumpkin Patch waiting for the privy, no one is going to stop you. I tried.
Clearly, they did it here to goose sales of an item they otherwise would have had a difficult time selling 75K of at $104. Apparently, they have no such concerns with the gold coin. Although I think they should. But the answer is either reducing the mintage, or the price. Not running unfair lotteries to reward the dealers and a few lucky members of the public, as they are doing with the silver privy.
The silver medal would have sold out without the privy because it will be the only representation of the first dollar coin ever done by the US government. 75k is also low number compared to silver eagles. Just wait until you wake up at night sometime and see on TV the coin shows selling these as the rarest first silver dollar representation from the United States Mint. Also the limit to one per household will mean they are distributed all over and coin dealers will have to pay up to get quantity. Flipping these in a sealed box will bring a premium just for the chance at riches.
PS For the price of the gold one people could buy 25 of the medals.
Clearly, they did it here to goose sales of an item they otherwise would have had a difficult time selling 75K of at $104. Apparently, they have no such concerns with the gold coin. Although I think they should. But the answer is either reducing the mintage, or the price. Not running unfair lotteries to reward the dealers and a few lucky members of the public, as they are doing with the silver privy.
The silver medal would have sold out without the privy because it will be the only representation of the first dollar coin ever done by the US government. 75k is also low number compared to silver eagles. Just wait until you wake up at night sometime and see on TV the coin shows selling these as the rarest first silver dollar representation from the United States Mint. Also the limit to one per household will mean they are distributed all over and coin dealers will have to pay up to get quantity. Flipping these in a sealed box will bring a premium just for the chance at riches.
The TV guys say lots of things. TV guys offering them for $199+ to dopes in the middle of the night won't mean anything to me if they are all over eBay for $60 a few weeks after release.
Maybe not exactly $60, but you get the idea. Dealers are going to be collectively buying tens of thousands of them to cherry pick the privys, which will be worth thousands each. Assuming $3K each for the privys, which might be low, that means 100 medals at $10,400 will mean dealers will each be sitting on 98 regular medals at a net cost of $45 each. They are not going to sit on them. They will sell them for what they can get, which will be far less than $199, or even $104.
Dealers aren't paying up for anything. They already have their quantity. How do I know? Because Advance Release coins are already being offered. Where Advance Release exists, so does bulk purchase. The only folks with a HHL of 1 are me and you. Just watch -- regular medals will not actually be trading for a premium above Mint issue price within a few weeks of release, once dealer stock starts hitting the market, and the Mint makes returns available for sale.
You don't normally have such a drag on the market, because dealers don't normally load up on dogs through the bulk purchase program. I'm going by the American Liberty series. 75K of them did not sell out last year at $82, and you can get as many as you want, right now, for the low low price of $97.
Yes, the Flowing Hair design is lovely. But the mintage is too high for the price.
As to whether flipping sealed boxes at a profit will be a thing, TBD. Personally, as a buyer, I wouldn't trust anyone not to screw with the box. And, as a seller, I'd just as soon take my 2.4% shot at a home run, and return a loser to the Mint for a refund.
The 2.4% shot could generate a 30x+ return, with no downside if I could return it for a full refund, less shipping. Can't imagine a sealed box would go for more than 2x. If those prices get out of line in relation to what the privys go for, however, who knows? It's just difficult for me to imagine they will, but I have been wrong before in underestimating the irrationality of some people.
Clearly, they did it here to goose sales of an item they otherwise would have had a difficult time selling 75K of at $104. Apparently, they have no such concerns with the gold coin. Although I think they should. But the answer is either reducing the mintage, or the price. Not running unfair lotteries to reward the dealers and a few lucky members of the public, as they are doing with the silver privy.
The silver medal would have sold out without the privy because it will be the only representation of the first dollar coin ever done by the US government. 75k is also low number compared to silver eagles. Just wait until you wake up at night sometime and see on TV the coin shows selling these as the rarest first silver dollar representation from the United States Mint. Also the limit to one per household will mean they are distributed all over and coin dealers will have to pay up to get quantity. Flipping these in a sealed box will bring a premium just for the chance at riches.
PS For the price of the gold one people could buy 25 of the medals.
No, they can't, because the gold will not be priced at $2,600. Same way the silver is not priced at $31. Add $1,000 to that. So, for the price of a gold, you'll actually be able to buy 35 silvers. So what? For the price of a one ounce gold bar, without the Mint's BS premiums, you could buy 85 silver one ounce bars.
What's your point? That gold is expensive relative to silver? Yeah, that's been the case ever since digital photography displaced film. Silver bugs have been waiting for the correction for a generation now. Even with the solar boom, silver mining deficit, etc. Still waiting.
Comments
For the dealers who get access at large pre-buys, does the US Mint allocate how many privy marked coins they get, or are they mixed in with all the 75,000 medals so the chance of a winner is equally distributed?
This ^^^ is why I would NEVER buy on a pre-sale, unless it's from a well known, reputable dealer who you know will make good, even if they have to take a loss to do so.
With most sellers, it's a one-way option. They will stick you if it's good for them, and renege if it isn't.
Got to watch those sellers on Ebay! You come to expect someone not delivering coins when it isnt to their benefit, price too low, or, some error is found and they plan to market the piece at a much higher rate. Expect this from sellers with little experience and small timers.
What I absolutely cant stand is a well known dealer playing this trick. I wont mention who - but I've had this happen to me with a well known delaer taking presale orders for a certain coin; telling you he doesnt have enough to ship to all of his buyers, but was selling the same coin for inflated prices under his ebay handle.
Also had a well known dealer sell me a coin on ebay, when received it was the exact coin viewed online in a third party holder---however, the dealer photoshopped (removed) a hit on the obverse of the coin. It was in an NGC holder - I was able to look it up (photo) on NGC site and compare the photos. What a sc**bag. I would never do business with that jerk again.
I agree. And all I'm saying is that a well known dealer with a decent reputation will go into the secondary market to secure inventory, and take a loss, if necessary, to fill pre-sale orders. Unless the pre-sale specifically stated that orders will only be filled if the seller cannot get more for the coin after the order is taken.
No reputable dealer, well known or not, would do what was done to you. Because any modern issue can be obtained at any time, for a price. So "doesn't have enough to ship to all of his buyers" is not really a thing.
"Can make more money by diverting a coin already sold to you, and telling you "tough s**t" is." Which is what it is, and it's often not worth suing over it. But it's not the conduct of a reputable dealer.
The solution is to have a little patience and wait for the dust to settle with hot new issues, rather than thinking you are going to get a deal. Most times you will get burned, either because the dealer won't fill the order, OR because your deal wasn't actually a deal after all.
I’m sure the mint didn’t think of this all by themselves. I’m sure dealers who have the mints ear probably had something to do with it.
Totally agree. Obviously, they wanted to whip up some excitement, because it would otherwise be a little embarrassing to have half the mintage sit unsold. Which would have been highly likely to happen with 75K being offered at $104, given how similar products sell.
After coming up with the idea of seeding the inventory with privy marks, and limiting sales to 1 per customer, that's when the dealers, who, after all, are their marketing partners, sprang into action. Knowing how much a limited mintage of under 2K would command in the secondary market, they wanted to guarantee themselves an allocation of privys.
Having to compete with the unwashed masses and the bots, like with the WWII 75th anniversary AGEs, just wouldn't do. So they got the Mint to include this in the Advance Release, and likely bulk sales programs. To my knowledge, this has never before happened with anything that was released with a HHL of 1, but I might be wrong about that.
In any event, it has certainly never happened with anything with a mintage of 1794. It's total BS, and a giveaway to the Big Boys. Sure, a few of us will get lucky, but they have a guarantee. And that's just not fair. Shame on the Mint. Because without the masses that they poop all over, nothing they make is worth anything other than intrinsic value.
Quite a few completed sales for Flowing hair gold on ebay in various formats - all PR70's, but ranging from 5,000 to 6500+
Interesting situation. At 17,500 mintage and 1 per HH on Day1; the prices shouldnt be as strong on the pre sale secondary. You would expect your normal bump of $300-$400 over issue for a certified 70 (ER/FS) The prices reflect 1500-2500 over, which would lead some to believe this issue might sellout quick or be a little harder to obtain.
Respectfully disagree with your analysis. With a mintage of 17.5K, and a selling price of approximately $1,000 above the historic value of an ounce of gold, the issue is not going to sell out quickly, if at all. The Mint is sure hoping it will, and an initial HHL of 1 is designed to get people like you to think exactly what you are thinking.
OTOH, the dealers are in the best position to know. And they are striking while the iron is hot. The people buying at these prices are what is called "the stupid money." And the smart money is feeding them while they can. Because the game will be over an hour after these go on sale, and they are still available. And then again when the HHL is lifted the next day, and they remain available.
They need to be the first on the block to have the shiny new coin, and/or they don't understand the intersection between value and mintage on modern Mint issues. They are extrapolating from recent issues with a mintage of 12.5K, and think they are getting fair value at ~$6K. They are not.
When the dust settles, these will be going for ~$4,500 in PR70. And, will not represent good value at that price.
As you suggested, long term value for something like this will be a few hundred dollars above spot, whatever that happens to be at any given point in time. So, yeah, these will be great deals if and when gold goes north of $6K. I'm not holding my breath.
4500 isnt bad on a ~3400 coin with about a 100 dollar grading fee.
we will see on wednesday. I dont think this will be a day 1 sellout (of course not) - but I believe this coin will sellout with 1-2 weeks.
sorry - gold not this week - next month NOV
NJ Coin - I've been in this game a long time. Played the odds with the best of the best on this site in the heydey of moderns 2000-2008. Anniversary Eagle Issues / 08 W Buffs / W Plats. I dont reveal my old handle for a reason.
Remember, everyone has their own opinion. We will see what happens soon enough.
I am also suspicious of the price potential of the 1,794 pivy marked silvers. I just cant see a 3,000+ dollar potential (70/FS) for this medal. in fact, that is the key drag.....it is a medal. Maybe a target of $1500 bucks? Anything more, imo, is a stretch - -but obviously there will be a few outlier sales that are high.
I do not think this gold version will sellout and I do not believe it is not worth paying $4,500+ for an early one in 70 either.
I do not even like the look of the gold coin as shown in current photos (uncirculated looking).
None of the images I have seen show a proper DCAM version. I think the DCAM will be a much better-looking coin and when they post some real photos of it, my guess is more will want to get involved.
Still, it is very expensive above spot, and I doubt 17,500 collectors have an extra $3,500 to buy a raw one.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
If you say so. To me, $4,500 on a modern coin with a mintage of 17.5K, a very high rate of 70s, $2,600 worth of gold, and around a $10 grading fee for the people submitting in bulk represents terrible value, but YMMV.
If you don't think it will be a Day One sellout, why would you say "the prices reflect 1500-2500 over, which would lead some to believe this issue might sellout quick or be a little harder to obtain"? 1-2 weeks is not a "quick sellout," and would actually mean the coins are quite easy to obtain.
The prices reflect nothing more than stupidity on the part of the buyers. And, of course, the sellers are merely taking advantage of that.
As I said before, some don't know how to do anything other than copy and paste. Without doing any analysis at all. They see that recent similar issues have done quite well, basically doubling from their issue price.
So the assumption from some is that these will do the same. Unfortunately, the simple fact remains that the upper limit for a single new issue one ounce gold coin is not infinite. The mintage on these is around 50% higher than on the coins it is being compared to, and the price of gold is up around 30%+ from when those other coins were issued.
And THAT is going to put a cap on what these coins are ultimately worth. I don't even think they will be worth the original issue price, which is already going to be around 40% above intrinsic value. So I certainly don't think they will be worth any premium at all above that.
Which is why I am not a buyer. Not from the Mint in OGP at $3600. Not in a PR 70 slab at $4500. And certainly not in a pre-sale at $5-6K+.
With all due respect, you are wrong. Some people get hung up on medal vs. coin. Many don't.
At the end of the day, they are the same thing, on the same planchet, from the same Mint. Coin vs. medal is a legal technicality that means nothing unless you want to take 4 of them to the grocery store to buy a gallon of milk with. Which no one does.
This is a non-circulating tribute to the country's first silver dollar. The key to the value is that the Mint is only going to be making 1794 of them. Not that it's not going to say $1 on it.
They will be worth far more than $1500 raw, let alone MS70. Period.
Great info @SilverPlatinum. The one question I have is what page to be on to get into the waiting room. Should I wait on the actual product page?
What exactly makes it a $3400 coin though? Its basal value is spot, and I could be convinced that the floor is about 10-20% higher but I see it as a terrible value for $4500. This is not my area of expertise however, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
You could buy a nice coin for that amount of cash. Type 1 eagles and double eagles, branch mint gold, early and seated dollars. I can’t really say whether it’s too much dealer markup without knowing the rate of MS70s vs 69s, but like NJ said, $4500 I would be a bit aggressive if the 70 rate is good. I guess it all demands on the secondary market value of the 69s.
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We will see who is correct and who isnt very soon. I dont know how long you've been at this game with moderns, but, I have seen this scenario play out time and time again.
Don't kid yourself. Coin vs Medal is a HUGE thing.
First off, it's a limit of ONE for the first 24 hours.
Secondly, they will not sellout of 10,000 or more Day 2.
It can take a week or two. It's a very popular design. Maybe they will never sellout and we will be surprised by a backorder status that doesnt get filled by year end (i.e. initial production....probably on the order of 7,500 coins sells and no more produced).
Anyone who says the affordability isnt there----well just look as far as your wallet.....everyone and their brother has a credit card with a high limit. It's amazing what people throw on the old plastic for the chance of making a profit.
I say these land in the 4500 range for 70's. Not a bad profit - where are you getting a 25% profit in a monthor two these days?
I'm not in for the long term hold. In and out. Take the profit, maybe just keep one for free.
You won't make it to the product page once they implement the waiting room. You will either be ushered into the waiting room from the home page, or when you go to sign in.
If you are anywhere else once they implement the waiting room, you will be kicked off the site. This is how they stop people from doing an end run around the waiting room. Once you are granted entrance to the website from the waiting room, you will be able to freely navigate around the entire site, so you don't need to be anywhere special.
Bottom line -- the waiting room is not product specific. It is site wide, once it is implemented.
I've been at this long enough to know what I am talking about. And yes, we will see in 24 hours just how HUGE coin vs. medal is for this issue.
All of this lively discussion has reaffirmed my decision to not get involved with these issues, same as for some other recent mint programs.
I'm happy if a few people make a few dollars, but I'm not going to get sucked into the game. I'm happy to be a spectator.
It is and has been for a long time. This medal is of the original U.S. Mint design for our first silver dollar "coin".
It IS different in that regard. I have never been interested in medals from the U.S. Mint or anywhere else.
I am very interested in this release.
Thank you @NJCoin. I guess I'll give it a shot. Good luck everyone.
Thank you. You are making my point. Medal vs. coin is largely irrelevant for non-circulating collector releases. This one will be popular due to the subject. The fact that it will not say $1 on its face will not make a difference to most people.
What's going to hurt it on the secondary market will be the issue price and quantity minted. Not the fact that it's a medal.
By the same token (pun intended! 😀), the limited mintage of 1794 is going to make the privys a huge winner. Even among those who didn't like the privy mark when it was first announced, before people knew it would be limited to 1794. The fact that it's a medal and not a coin will not diminish its appeal, or its ultimate value, by even a fraction of a cent.
Same to you!!! Unfortunately, the Big Boys have already helped themselves to a huge slice of the pie, so there will be far fewer than 75K for the rest of us to fight over.
If you are lucky enough to snag one in the release, this will be a good privy to flip.
Eventually the Mint will go to the privy well too many times and the values will start to stink.
Thank you in advance.
If this were a "coin" given a true denomination of $1 - the popularity would skyrocket well beyond that of a medal. I dont know how you could even debate that point.
If you could sellout 75,000 of these medals - you would sell double that if it were a coin.
Many collectors just dont like medals. You might as well by a secondary market silver 1 oz round.
There is absolutely no way a medal with a Privy would hold more value than a coin of the same mintage with that same Privy.
Keep convincing yourself otherwise. It's just a wild dream.
Outside of that debate - you could certainly flip this medal with the Privy for a nice profit; but I wouldnt count on long term steady appreciation.
Here’s a privy auction. Guess they are confident the seller is going to get one.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/116351923952?_trkparms=amclksrc=ITM&aid=1110006&algo=HOMESPLICE.SIM&ao=1&asc=274397&meid=130a5b77fb3a4a20a9c12011bfbdf914&pid=101429&rk=3&rkt=12&sd=146089783930&itm=116351923952&pmt=1&noa=0&pg=2332490&algv=SimPLMWebV1EmbeddedAuctionsCPCAutoManualWithCIIXAIRecallsUpdatedRanker0424NoIMA&brand=U.S.+Mint&_trksid=p2332490.c101429.m2460&itmprp=cksum:116351923952130a5b77fb3a4a20a9c12011bfbdf914|enc:AQAJAAABYIV5CFHpx8qL94DS2Mo1uCi5RlK%2B6oGF%2Bq%2FvM6onJsyCAS4bVm4MG2DxmngmQBYs7QTou1H5%2BktC9DZbAMWEM%2B%2BdlquESLSCZunJqt41Rd0Jpo%2B961Uv4rJCVp8%2FxvBjYZzbkCIKpi9DICEp3ESOICRUTEtRy5Lr5tDmyoa7Kk9j3TgBmLqf8IReN%2BbJYXWV4FN0oGFOEpLYcvruGLl8FavyNooKAxygaTdw904sa44eoPwP7yL0ZIr0hr37KIXED%2BScM6enyVSmywAMLLItLqqzAni6iSKS0q3u4yaXrGTU8vA5AAOjbCi25Ezevl96WRkm7ynPNaH%2BxyxWJaODsMz9TZzN3VNHg7odzt2KOJGPQWsxjXrlqwvdwSwDXNAlTmkWURMTefBjXmUhJQxQNQFDmZymD%2FQ7LWPApkR10OjVOmvaXoJdWmhqw1qxN8PgivG2EsUs4H0yeeJniNOG%2Buw%3D|ampid:PL_CLK|clp:2332490&itmmeta=01JA67TPTXZQ10K96AVX8Y9AAR
Box of 20
I would really like to know how many medals the dealers got and how many privy marked medals they were guaranteed with their purchase. Talk about an unlevel playing field. I see some sellers on eBay have already sold several for $4K and up. This is just a major slap in the face to the little guy.
I don't have to convince myself of anything. When you turn out to be wrong, and raw versions with a privy settle at $3K+, you can then tell yourself it would have been $6K+ if it said $1 on it.
75K of these wouldn't sell out at $104 if they did say $1 on them, and they will on account of the privys. Obscure issues commemorating obscure subjects don't sell, whether or not they are monetized. Most of those so just happen to turn out to be medals. Correlation does not mean causation.
And these will sell out, due to the subject. Had they priced them at $75, they could have easily sold 150K, medal or coin. But they went this route instead.
You arguing they would have sold out more if it was a coin rather than a medal is kind of pointless. As is arguing that the monster premium attached to the medals with a privy would have been even higher if it was a coin will turn out to be objectively wrong, since the premium is already going to be far higher than you imagine.
And it will settle far higher than you imagine as well. Because it's a US Mint tribute to the nation's first silver dollar, with a mintage of 1794. Medal or coin. Just won't matter.
Other than to you, who wouldn't be a buyer at $1,500, $3,000, $6,000, whatever. Regardless of whether it's a coin or a medal. So, honestly, what's the point? You are not the market for these, and the market does not care whether or not they are monetized. No one is going to be spending them.
Because they are going to get several of them. The Big Boys are apparently able to buy through the Advance Release and bulk purchase programs. They get, on average 2-3 with privys for every 100 they are able to buy.
Agreed. And you don't have to wonder. Assuming the distribution is "fair," they will be guaranteed 2.4 with privys for every 100 they buy. While we are subject to a HHL of 1, meaning most of us are guaranteed 0.
This is why, assuming the Mint actually does accept returns, we should all return anything we get that does not have a privy mark. The dealers are allowed to enter a no risk lottery. We should be as well.
It is probably still too early to decide the fate of the gold coin since there has been no description or photos put up on the mint website.
The gold coin is also high relief, while the medal is not.
If they do 1794 with a privy mark in gold then that will change everything.
The silver medal is going to be sold by the TV coin shows as the rarest medal ever depicting a classic coin on TV.
Sure, but don't get your hopes up. The release is a month out. They have announced the mintage, and taken dealer orders. If the were going to do anything "that will change everything," dealers would need that information before placing orders. As a result, not happening.
What you see is exactly what you'll get with these, 17,500 @ around $1,000 above spot gold. You'll be able to buy as many as you want, directly from the Mint, at 12:01 p.m. on 11/15. How many you in for? 😀
By the way, while the Mint has not yet posted pictures, there is a very extensive description on the product page. No reference to a privy mark, unlike the silver medal, because there won't be one on this. People really do need to stop searching for things that just are not there.
What a wild dream.
Demand would be much higher if it were monetized. Without secondary market demand - stick a fork in it.
The only hope you have is 75,000 lottery players are out there holding their $104 in their hand for a chance. If there are, expect 50,000 "players" to have a return started the day after delivery of their non-privy medal.
It's a done deal. A significant number have already been spoken for by the Advance Release and bulk purchase dealers. Whatever is left will be gobbled up as quickly as the website can process orders.
What goes back to the Mint is another story. Because, as I have said repeatedly $104 for anything with a 75K mintage is too high. Medal or coin.
Which has nothing to do with 1794 medals with a privy. Those are going to the moon. The rest will be dumped on the market, where they will settle around $60-75.
Which is where the Mint should have priced them in the first place. Instead they did this. But, given what the ones with a privy will be worth, $104 for the lottery ticket plus the medal without the privy mark is a deal, so they will sell out. Day One. Whether or not the Mint accepts returns.
You're hung up on coin vs. medal, but that has nothing to do with anything I am saying. Or the economics of 75K at $104, or the value of 1794 of anything the Mint pushes out the door.
Because coin is more popular. Says you. If you're right, medals with a privy shouldn't mean anything to anyone, no matter how few are made.
Let's see about that. I say demand is going to be high enough to push 1794 medals sold at $104 to go for thousands upon thousands of dollars in the secondary market. Not sure how much higher you think that would be if the 1794 were coins instead, with the exact same design, privy mark, and mintage.
In fact, I think 1794 medals with $30 worth of silver in them are going to be worth around the same in the secondary market as 17,500 coins with $2,600 worth of gold in them. If not more. What do you think about that? And, if it turns out to be correct, what would that say about whether the market cares about coin vs. medal? 😀
And so far we have nothing to see since no pictures. Pictures are worth a thousand words.
If you say so. I count many words on the Mint product page that tells me EXACTLY what these are going to be. And what they won't be.
10% allocation to ABPP. Thats not a significant portion. It's 10% or 7,500.
67,500 to go.
I am not saying what you claim isn't true, only it is very strange no official pictures on the product page and yet they put up a description already. It would also be strange for them to do a privy only for the silver medal, and not also for the gold.
It's all strange, and there is no playbook here. On the rare occasions they have done privys in the past, they did them as totally independent products, not as Cracker Jack prizes in other, related products.
Clearly, they did it here to goose sales of an item they otherwise would have had a difficult time selling 75K of at $104. Apparently, they have no such concerns with the gold coin. Although I think they should. But the answer is either reducing the mintage, or the price. Not running unfair lotteries to reward the dealers and a few lucky members of the public, as they are doing with the silver privy.
In any event, pictures or not, they have posted a full description of the item that includes no mention of a privy. Unlike the silver, which has a chapter and verse description of the privy, as well as a signed COA. If you want to join Linus in the Pumpkin Patch waiting for the privy, no one is going to stop you. I tried.
How insane are you for this asking price?
"Yes."
Highest buy-now prices on ebay as of 630pm.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
The silver medal would have sold out without the privy because it will be the only representation of the first dollar coin ever done by the US government. 75k is also low number compared to silver eagles. Just wait until you wake up at night sometime and see on TV the coin shows selling these as the rarest first silver dollar representation from the United States Mint. Also the limit to one per household will mean they are distributed all over and coin dealers will have to pay up to get quantity. Flipping these in a sealed box will bring a premium just for the chance at riches.
PS For the price of the gold one people could buy 25 of the medals.
The TV guys say lots of things. TV guys offering them for $199+ to dopes in the middle of the night won't mean anything to me if they are all over eBay for $60 a few weeks after release.
Maybe not exactly $60, but you get the idea. Dealers are going to be collectively buying tens of thousands of them to cherry pick the privys, which will be worth thousands each. Assuming $3K each for the privys, which might be low, that means 100 medals at $10,400 will mean dealers will each be sitting on 98 regular medals at a net cost of $45 each. They are not going to sit on them. They will sell them for what they can get, which will be far less than $199, or even $104.
Dealers aren't paying up for anything. They already have their quantity. How do I know? Because Advance Release coins are already being offered. Where Advance Release exists, so does bulk purchase. The only folks with a HHL of 1 are me and you. Just watch -- regular medals will not actually be trading for a premium above Mint issue price within a few weeks of release, once dealer stock starts hitting the market, and the Mint makes returns available for sale.
You don't normally have such a drag on the market, because dealers don't normally load up on dogs through the bulk purchase program. I'm going by the American Liberty series. 75K of them did not sell out last year at $82, and you can get as many as you want, right now, for the low low price of $97.
Yes, the Flowing Hair design is lovely. But the mintage is too high for the price.
As to whether flipping sealed boxes at a profit will be a thing, TBD. Personally, as a buyer, I wouldn't trust anyone not to screw with the box. And, as a seller, I'd just as soon take my 2.4% shot at a home run, and return a loser to the Mint for a refund.
The 2.4% shot could generate a 30x+ return, with no downside if I could return it for a full refund, less shipping. Can't imagine a sealed box would go for more than 2x. If those prices get out of line in relation to what the privys go for, however, who knows? It's just difficult for me to imagine they will, but I have been wrong before in underestimating the irrationality of some people.
No, they can't, because the gold will not be priced at $2,600. Same way the silver is not priced at $31. Add $1,000 to that. So, for the price of a gold, you'll actually be able to buy 35 silvers. So what? For the price of a one ounce gold bar, without the Mint's BS premiums, you could buy 85 silver one ounce bars.
What's your point? That gold is expensive relative to silver? Yeah, that's been the case ever since digital photography displaced film. Silver bugs have been waiting for the correction for a generation now. Even with the solar boom, silver mining deficit, etc. Still waiting.
For the Gold, under the 'specs' it states
Privy Mark - NONE
Second,
For Gold
I wonder if all the dealers will be updating their pictures when we get the Mints Images.
The mint says Proof, I'd assume there will be shiny fields.
Otherwise they'd be mis representing the product
It says the same for the silver medal under 'specs'
Privy Mark - NONE