‘’I don't know if ending on a holiday is necessarily good or bad. The bid auction houses sometimes have auctions on or near holidays.’’
I have little doubt, Ian may say that ending auctions on various holiday weekends may result in exceptionally strong prices realized. I know first hand that to be the case. Which is why I commented right at the outset that this was simply an unusual holiday weekend auction where, in my opinion, a % of bidders were “MIA”.
I can present myriad information to support this position as I personally bought and sold “five figures” of coins on both the buying side and the selling side on Sunday.
Imho, collectors (especially here over the years) love looking for justifications and excuses (after the fact) why “classics” performed poorly (e.g. the true quality was bad on this or that, the bidders got into a bidding war years ago and so the prices were never right in the first place, and on and on). These excuses are rarely, if ever, used to explain away a modern coin that sold weakly as it is assumed by many (most?) moderns simply perform poorly over time, while “classics” perform nicely over a 10+ year horizon. Let me be the first to tell you (again in my humble opinion), this line of reasoning may prove problematic to that portion of the collector base who placed their “blind faith” in the “10 year process for classic coins” (especially buying these “classics” without the keen eye of a classic coin dealer expert helping them select quality specimens).
Watch for the excuses as some of the “classics” possibly perform poorly over the next few years. Enough said.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
In the end you have to have at least 2 people willing to pay "full price" or better for a coin for it to realize a fair market value and sometimes that's a tall order. There's only so much attention a collector can pay to all of the auctions out there and items in them.
I'm curious if anyone has any or is aware of any auto bidding or sniping programs that work with GC?
Many of these coins were relatively uninteresting dates in my opinion, though the 73-s is arguably THE nicest and most original example. There’s two in 58cac, one of them is ok, but this one is fantastic for the grade.
The 1873-S Fairmont $10 is a very rare and outstanding coin. When SB auctioned the coin in 2022 the CAC pop was only one and it’s now two which can’t be helping the price. I can’t find an image of the new CAC coin. Type 2 with motto $10s are not as popular as Type ones. Between Fairmont saturating the market and economic uncertainty in an election year collector/dealers may be more conservative buyers moving forward.
The other 58cac is currently for sale in RCW’s inventory for 43k, but I MUCH prefer the fairmont example.
I have no idea what the two pcgs 61 examples look like, but the PCGS 62 was the Bass specimen that was found in Europe. I grade that one AU58 as well, and I think the fairmont coin is head and shoulders the best out of the bunch.
Got some nice coins below bid / GC too. Lots of times tough - as they bid me up. Used my timer / stop watch off phone workin my angle. You never know until the end if bidder competition has nuk bid. Celebrated my wins with some bourbon and Coca Cola, along with salami sandwich. Had planned bidding strategy way b4 auc.
Had some Bay pickups too via AS. Yay!
Yes TG week a goodun win some. Then get good retail $ from them for Xmas.
I'm confused....with gold RISING the last few months (for the lower-premium coins)....and with articles stating that the Fairmont Hoard dumping was over (or was in the prices) several months ago (i.e., Doug Winter's in-depth articles earlier in the year)....I'm somewhat surprised to read about even more Fairmont weakness.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
I'm confused....with gold RISING the last few months (for the lower-premium coins)....and with articles stating that the Fairmont Hoard dumping was over (or was in the prices) several months ago (i.e., Doug Winter's in-depth articles earlier in the year)....I'm somewhat surprised to read about even more Fairmont weakness.
I thought prices had bottomed.
Concerning Fairmont DEs, I agree with DWs analysis. Really appears to be more common issues. Even Type 1s aren’t immune.
One issue, a better date ‘54 Lg. Date that used to be a strong seller has showed particular weakness with unrelenting offerings of auction coins.
>
While not entirely, I have tried to concentrate on better date NOLAs and Carson’s. These seem to be weathering pretty well, so far.
@pcgscacgold said:
I will have to start watching for a good deal on a CAC Type 1 DE. That is a hole I need to fill. So far I am not seeing much of a pull back.
There wont really be a pull back there because they never shot up in the first place. You can get a choice AU of the common dates for like 3-4k, and better dates like 5-6k. I think Type 1 DE'ss in choice AU represent some of the best value in numismatics, when youre only paying a marginal premium in relation to melt price, and in a decade or two the premium paid will evaporate as gold rises. The market for those coins is woefully soft right now, i'd say that its definitely a buyers market for type 1 libs.
@JohnF said:
p.s. this 1799 $10 Large Stars, PCGS MS62 (BD-9) was a bit of a surprise. As a BD #, it's R6 versus R3 for the only other BD variety (BD-10) yet this auction results reduces its market premium to just 10% over the much more plentiful BD-10 variety. My read on this is the market just place a strong premium on early eagles by specialist die variety. Actually, this is also in line with my perceptions.
Obviously, you meant that the market DOESN'T place a strong premium on early eagles by specialist die variety. Although that wouldn't be true for an R-8, or for a finest known R6. Or to put it another way, it doesn't matter much if a variety is R-6 if variety collectors are High R-7.
One more thing. I'm sure all of the few early gold variety collectors were following the Bass sales very closely, but it's very unlikely that they all follow GC on a regular basis.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
All that red seems to have slowed down the sellers. I just did a search at GC for CAC DE's. There is only one Type 1 up for sale over the next 3 weeks. In fact, there is only one page of CAC DE's total for the next 3 weeks. I can see why people are hanging on to them.
Thanks for sharing. Nothing stings worse than an auction loss then the juice add on. RCI is risky.
Unless they realized less than bid less 20 pct not surprised. Everybody knows Auction YMMV. Sometimes it’s better shop it around bourse at a show. The other choice is setting up at a show then one has control except the fixed Opex and show expenses. Sch C deduction can soften those blows.
Yes I have lost money at bad shows but have fun w all of them / the coin show food, a super pickup or fantastic retail sale. At one show w some material wanted blow out priced at 10 pct below bid one fellow walked up bought it all!
The deepend of the pool is where most people drown. Big release sales of fresh stuff is ripe with pitfalls as the Real opportunities bring big bucks and others end up paying opportunity costs for stuff that is not as special. People will claim it was a different market but these sales often make the market and months later sellers are fishing for the underbidders. Not always the case but many times.
While rarer dates and better than avg preservation & coloration. Fairmont was a lot of really pricey gold for the market to absorb considering that there aren’t many set collectors out there and most need rare type buyers. Dealer credit lines sometimes do to well publicized auctions what easy car loans at dealers do to car prices..
Fairmont is like herpes. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
On a more serious note I’ve lost a lot of my enthusiasm pursuing pre 1875 gold that I find numismatically interesting. I’m having a difficult time motivating myself to checkout the latest SB Fairmont hoard.
@Crypto said:
The deepend of the pool is where most people drown. Big release sales of fresh stuff is ripe with pitfalls as the Real opportunities bring big bucks and others end up paying opportunity costs for stuff that is not as special. People will claim it was a different market but these sales often make the market and months later sellers are fishing for the underbidders. Not always the case but many times.
While rarer dates and better than avg preservation & coloration. Fairmont was a lot of really pricey gold for the market to absorb considering that there aren’t many set collectors out there and most need rare type buyers. Dealer credit lines sometimes do to well publicized auctions what easy car loans at dealers do to car prices..
I could tell a story about this... pertaining to the 2010 Stacks auction of a HUGE Proof large Note auction... I caught the bug and paid up for one... took a bath when I went to sell it 6 years later... I blamed the auction house for not doing a great writeup and this and this and that... In the end just violated my budget. Not a story teller... But severed my relationship with HA.
@Relaxn said:
Wow... Just as a new Fairmont auction is posted.. November 20th
Yet another Fairmont...
You know...the failure to identify the size of the hoard when it was first announced doesn't do much to prevent the thought that every little stash is being put together with other stashes and then being marketed as part of this "Fairmont Collection" or "Fairmont Hoard" even though for all we know coins that have nothing to do with the original stash are now piggy-backing off the name.
@PeakRarities said:
Here’s the CPG market review for type 1 libs…note all of the red.
Off the top of anybody's head....are these Red Down Arrows significant declines from a few months ago (when gold rose) or a year ago (ditto) ? Or do they track other Double Eagles ?
If other Double Eagles were flat or up or only down a bit....but the Fairmont DEs were down 15-20% like DW's blog analyses implied...that's significant.
@Relaxn said:
Wow... Just as a new Fairmont auction is posted.. November 20th
Yet another Fairmont...
You know...the failure to identify the size of the hoard when it was first announced doesn't do much to prevent the thought that every little stash is being put together with other stashes and then being marketed as part of this "Fairmont Collection" or "Fairmont Hoard" even though for all we know coins that have nothing to do with the original stash are not piggy-backing off the name.
I love conspiracy theories !!
Or do I......
Why the wild speculation and baseless implied accusations?
I would suggest it’s actually the opposite - much of the Fairmont hoard appears to have been sold privately without the pedigree on the holder - primarily the common dates. Read Doug Winter’s write ups.
It appears the cacs mania has certainly hit the saturation point. As the saying goes, a fool and his money are soon parted. Remember folks, once upon a time you were in this to collect coins and not silly little stickers. RGDS!
@Relaxn said:
Wow... Just as a new Fairmont auction is posted.. November 20th
Yet another Fairmont...
You know...the failure to identify the size of the hoard when it was first announced doesn't do much to prevent the thought that every little stash is being put together with other stashes and then being marketed as part of this "Fairmont Collection" or "Fairmont Hoard" even though for all we know coins that have nothing to do with the original stash are not piggy-backing off the name.
I love conspiracy theories !!
Or do I......
Why the wild speculation and baseless implied accusations?
I would suggest it’s actually the opposite - much of the Fairmont hoard appears to have been sold privately without the pedigree on the holder - primarily the common dates. Read Doug Winter’s write ups.
And forget the conspiracies.
When SB has one Fairmont sale after another and they have never been forthright about the origins or how many coins are in the hoard what do you expect?
@fathom said:
Nothing really exciting about those particular dates, maybe the cc.
Yeah seems a little weak but those original buy prices were too strong IMO. Caught up in the Fairmont hype might >be correct. Overall weak though I agree.
Was it Fairmont hype or was it the peak of stay-at-home Covid keyboard buying ?
The stock market and collectible markets had peaked a few months before. Maybe Fairmont caught a bid that wasn't as pronounced in coins/currency for top-end stuff (lower-end stuff did get bid up) but was more tied to the peak in stocks, the NASDAQ, stay-at-home plays, sports cards, etc.
@Jacques_Loungecoque said:
Six months to a year ago, I believed we were entering a weird phase where price decreases were driven by a >suffering economy. Recently I’ve been convinced there is indeed a correction occurring. Likely, a mix of both.
It’s happening in nearly all classes of collectibles. One thing the card guys seem to have a better grasp on is >recognizing this. They seem to be much more flexible in making adjustments and being honest about the state of >their hobby. Prices simply spiked during and post-Covid are returning to Earth.
Yes, no one sale is an example for an entire market change. There are myriad factors at play in every sale. But this >is far from isolated.
This is a good, interesting post.
What I would add is that the sports collectibles/card market went NUTS with HUGE increases. In fact, you could make a case that with the exception of the Mickey Mantle and Michael Jordan Rookie Cards, sports cards had done nothing from 1994-2020.
Check out an Armen Ketayian piece from CBS Newsabout how it was only old guys and no crowd at a card "show" in Parsippany, NJ compared to the boom I was part of in the late-1980's/early-1990's (there's a video, too, but I can't find it):
Then Covid hit...people got checks and cash....home all day at their PC.....and bid everything up.
But while low-priced silver and small gold coins caught bids, the true numismatics and more expensive coins tracking bullion did NOT get bid up because they were out of the reach for most of the new collectors or new buyers. Low-priced morgans caught a bid, pre-1933 (esp. DEs) did NOT except to the extent that gold rose.
@PeakRarities said:
There wont really be a pull back there because they never shot up in the first place. You can get a choice AU of the common dates for like 3-4k, and better dates like 5-6k. I think Type 1 DE'ss in choice AU represent some of the best value in numismatics, when youre only paying a marginal premium in relation to melt price, and in a decade or two the premium paid will evaporate as gold rises. The market for those coins is woefully soft right now, i'd say that its definitely a buyers market for type 1 libs.
Why do you think that the marginal premium will dissipate further as gold rises ?
While I might expect that if the premium were large, I would think that if gold rises any marginal premium has room to expand.
At least for commons, premiums can be historically volatile and I'm not sure the sample size is statisically significant anyways:
@Jacques_Loungecoque said:
Six months to a year ago, I believed we were entering a weird phase where price decreases were driven by a suffering economy. Recently I’ve been convinced there is indeed a correction occurring. Likely, a mix of both.
It’s happening in nearly all classes of collectibles. One thing the card guys seem to have a better grasp on is recognizing this. They seem to be much more flexible in making adjustments and being honest about the state of their hobby. Prices simply spiked during and post-Covid are returning to Earth.
Yes, no one sale is an example for an entire market change. There are myriad factors at play in every sale. But this is far from isolated.
This is a good, interesting post.
What I would add is that the sports collectibles/card market went NUTS with HUGE increases. In fact, you could make a case that with the exception of the Mickey Mantle and Michael Jordan Rookie Cards, sports cards had done nothing from 1994-2020.
Check out an Armen Ketayian piece from CBS Newsabout how it was only old guys and no crowd at a card "show" in Parsippany, NJ compared to the boom I was part of in the late-1980's/early-1990's (there's a video, too, but I can't find it):
Then Covid hit...people got checks and cash....home all day at their PC.....and bit everything up.
But while low-priced silver and small gold coins caught bids, the true numismatics and more expensive coins tracking bullion did NOT get bid up because they were out of the reach for most of the new collectors or new buyers. Low-priced morgans caught a bid, pre-1933 (esp. DEs) did NOT except to the extent that gold rose.
I'll probably put out a market report on my blog tomorrow or this weekend, but its difficult to generalize a blanket statement for the current market. Yes, theres been considerable weakness among some segments of the market, but the advance collectors with whom I communicate often seem to be buying heavily as they were the past few years. The hobbyists/novice collectors seem to have been affected more by the economy, which could be illustrated with the woefully soft generic gold market. Among some of the worst softening I see is with higher grade common coins, late-date walkers for instance, or non CAC saints in 65/66. don't have much insight with the 20th century type, but I cant imagine that mercury dimes, lincoln cents, or buffalo nickels are doing much better.
Early federal is still hot, seated and bust material is faring well. Branch mint gold is doing fine, but better date classic philly gold is dead and buried. Even during the market highs, 19th century Philly gold wasn't getting any love. Early bust gold and pioneer/territorial is always red hot.
I think I agree with your observations that participants in other collectible markets can be more realistic than numismatists. In the coin world, there appears to be tendency to not want to accept or that the market is not strong anymore. I don't have an issue doing so, but I'm not the only one. I've seen other dealers adjust their pricing on languishing inventory, but it's all part of the natural cylce. In the grand scheme, I think It's actually healthy for a market to go through it's cycles. The covid surge brought in many wannabe dealers who were able to turn a profit with little to no knowledge of their offerings or numismatics in general, and for me there's no love lost watching them pack their bags. Some are buried in their inventory, and my advice would be to be cautious with non-established individual sellers at a time like this. Some operate on credit from the auction houses, or loans, and when it's time to pay the piper, they will dissapear swiftly with the coins and the cash. A few "dealers" have been exposed recently for writing bad checks, and we haven't seen the last of it.
I found this article about the Art market implosion to be an interesting read. If anyone cant get past the paywall, send me a pm and Ill send you the article in a message.
@PeakRarities said:
There wont really be a pull back there because they never shot up in the first place. You can get a choice AU of the common dates for like 3-4k, and better dates like 5-6k. I think Type 1 DE'ss in choice AU represent some of the best value in numismatics, when youre only paying a marginal premium in relation to melt price, and in a decade or two the premium paid will evaporate as gold rises. The market for those coins is woefully soft right now, i'd say that its definitely a buyers market for type 1 libs.
Why do you think that the marginal premium will dissipate further as gold rises ?
While I might expect that if the premium were large, I would think that if gold rises any marginal premium has room to expand.
At least for commons, premiums can be historically volatile and I'm not sure the sample size is statisically significant anyways:
Perhaps I could have phrased better, but I said "premium paid will evaporate". Meaning if you pay $3500 for a DE, that $1000 premium you paid could easily be absorbed by the gold price over the next decade.
Great report Dan @PeakRarities
I agree, I am seeing a strong CAC gold market. Non-CAC gold is pretty tough to move. Philadelphia gold always seems to be difficult to sell. Those series are so long and have so many coins to collect most are probably used as type coins.
I am not seeing much of a drop in CAC Capped Bust Halves. Those still bring strong money at auction and on dealer sites. The quality pieces do not last long on dealer sites. The non-CAC items can sit for months or more.
I wish things were different and I could add great pieces on the cheap. Just not happening.
Not surprised it's taken a hit.....while the market here is much more high-income, if only a few are taking a sabbatical, it has a Domino Effect.
Remember NFTs ? I still don't know what the heck they were....but they were down about 90% last I checked and I haven't seen an article or TV spot on them in months (years ?).
I like the quality of the Fairmont coins so I will keep buying them if I find ones I need. Unfortunately, the latest offering has almost nothing for me. Grades keep getting lower and there are longer and longer gaps of dates and issues.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
I'm not as knowledgeable and as well-versed in the history of collections going back decades as some of you.....but can any of you even REMOTELY remember a collection that has taken this long (7 years and counting) from initial discovery/sales and is still active ?
I guess with some of the old classic collections like Eliasberg they were sold over many years, but you KNEW how big the collections were initially. Fairmont is turning into an open-ended black hole.
For all we know, we could be half-way through the entire "Fairmont Hoard".....or.....it could be 100% completed and they're just selling any other additional coins they have access to and calling them Fairmont coins, whatever that means.
It really is a bit ridiculous, when you think about it.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
I'm not as knowledgeable and as well-versed in the history of collections going back decades as some of you.....but can any of you even REMOTELY remember a collection that has taken this long (7 years and counting) from initial discovery/sales and is still active ?
I guess with some of the old classic collections like Eliasberg they were sold over many years, but you KNEW how big the collections were initially. Fairmont is turning into an open-ended black hole.
For all we know, we could be half-way through the entire "Fairmont Hoard".....or.....it could be 100% completed and they're just selling any other additional coins they have access to and calling them Fairmont coins, whatever that means.
It really is a bit ridiculous, when you think about it.
I believe Fairmont is a hoard rather than a collection. I picture canvas bags of gold coins going to the grading service to be sorted, graded, and then slabbed.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@PerryHall said:
I believe Fairmont is a hoard rather than a collection. I picture canvas bags of gold coins going to the grading >service to be sorted, graded, and then slabbed.
Yes, Fairmont is actually a Canadian hotel as I recall where apparently some of the principals met.
My point remains: instead of dozens or hundreds or thousands of tiny hoards or family collections dribbling out over many years as has been the case for decades...you could have had the Fairmont principals purchase all these tiny hoards (from 5 coins to 500 or whatever) at a set time...and now they consolidate them into one big hoard despite the fact that most of the coins have nothing to do with one another.
It's not like the 1908 Wells Fargo NM Saints were it was pretty clear they were all together and shared a similar history.
Comments
.
I don't know if ending on a holiday is necessarily good or bad. The big auction houses sometimes have auctions on or near holidays.
‘’I don't know if ending on a holiday is necessarily good or bad. The bid auction houses sometimes have auctions on or near holidays.’’
I have little doubt, Ian may say that ending auctions on various holiday weekends may result in exceptionally strong prices realized. I know first hand that to be the case. Which is why I commented right at the outset that this was simply an unusual holiday weekend auction where, in my opinion, a % of bidders were “MIA”.
I can present myriad information to support this position as I personally bought and sold “five figures” of coins on both the buying side and the selling side on Sunday.
Imho, collectors (especially here over the years) love looking for justifications and excuses (after the fact) why “classics” performed poorly (e.g. the true quality was bad on this or that, the bidders got into a bidding war years ago and so the prices were never right in the first place, and on and on). These excuses are rarely, if ever, used to explain away a modern coin that sold weakly as it is assumed by many (most?) moderns simply perform poorly over time, while “classics” perform nicely over a 10+ year horizon. Let me be the first to tell you (again in my humble opinion), this line of reasoning may prove problematic to that portion of the collector base who placed their “blind faith” in the “10 year process for classic coins” (especially buying these “classics” without the keen eye of a classic coin dealer expert helping them select quality specimens).
Watch for the excuses as some of the “classics” possibly perform poorly over the next few years. Enough said.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
In the end you have to have at least 2 people willing to pay "full price" or better for a coin for it to realize a fair market value and sometimes that's a tall order. There's only so much attention a collector can pay to all of the auctions out there and items in them.
I'm curious if anyone has any or is aware of any auto bidding or sniping programs that work with GC?
Thanks for the location of the other CAC 73-S. There’s no comparison between the two. The Fairmont is far superior.
Got some nice coins below bid / GC too. Lots of times tough - as they bid me up. Used my timer / stop watch off phone workin my angle. You never know until the end if bidder competition has nuk bid. Celebrated my wins with some bourbon and Coca Cola, along with salami sandwich. Had planned bidding strategy way b4 auc.
Had some Bay pickups too via AS. Yay!
Yes TG week a goodun win some. Then get good retail $ from them for Xmas.
I'm confused....with gold RISING the last few months (for the lower-premium coins)....and with articles stating that the Fairmont Hoard dumping was over (or was in the prices) several months ago (i.e., Doug Winter's in-depth articles earlier in the year)....I'm somewhat surprised to read about even more Fairmont weakness.
I thought prices had bottomed.
Concerning Fairmont DEs, I agree with DWs analysis. Really appears to be more common issues. Even Type 1s aren’t immune.
One issue, a better date ‘54 Lg. Date that used to be a strong seller has showed particular weakness with unrelenting offerings of auction coins.
>
While not entirely, I have tried to concentrate on better date NOLAs and Carson’s. These seem to be weathering pretty well, so far.
I will have to start watching for a good deal on a CAC Type 1 DE. That is a hole I need to fill. So far I am not seeing much of a pull back.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Wow... Just as a new Fairmont auction is posted.. November 20th
Yet another Fairmont...
There wont really be a pull back there because they never shot up in the first place. You can get a choice AU of the common dates for like 3-4k, and better dates like 5-6k. I think Type 1 DE'ss in choice AU represent some of the best value in numismatics, when youre only paying a marginal premium in relation to melt price, and in a decade or two the premium paid will evaporate as gold rises. The market for those coins is woefully soft right now, i'd say that its definitely a buyers market for type 1 libs.
Founder- Peak Rarities
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Here’s the CPG market review for type 1 libs…note all of the red.
Founder- Peak Rarities
Website
Instagram
Facebook
Obviously, you meant that the market DOESN'T place a strong premium on early eagles by specialist die variety. Although that wouldn't be true for an R-8, or for a finest known R6. Or to put it another way, it doesn't matter much if a variety is R-6 if variety collectors are High R-7.
One more thing. I'm sure all of the few early gold variety collectors were following the Bass sales very closely, but it's very unlikely that they all follow GC on a regular basis.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Thanks Dan @PeakRarities
All that red seems to have slowed down the sellers. I just did a search at GC for CAC DE's. There is only one Type 1 up for sale over the next 3 weeks. In fact, there is only one page of CAC DE's total for the next 3 weeks. I can see why people are hanging on to them.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Thanks for sharing. Nothing stings worse than an auction loss then the juice add on. RCI is risky.
Unless they realized less than bid less 20 pct not surprised. Everybody knows Auction YMMV. Sometimes it’s better shop it around bourse at a show. The other choice is setting up at a show then one has control except the fixed Opex and show expenses. Sch C deduction can soften those blows.
Yes I have lost money at bad shows but have fun w all of them / the coin show food, a super pickup or fantastic retail sale. At one show w some material wanted blow out priced at 10 pct below bid one fellow walked up bought it all!
The deepend of the pool is where most people drown. Big release sales of fresh stuff is ripe with pitfalls as the Real opportunities bring big bucks and others end up paying opportunity costs for stuff that is not as special. People will claim it was a different market but these sales often make the market and months later sellers are fishing for the underbidders. Not always the case but many times.
While rarer dates and better than avg preservation & coloration. Fairmont was a lot of really pricey gold for the market to absorb considering that there aren’t many set collectors out there and most need rare type buyers. Dealer credit lines sometimes do to well publicized auctions what easy car loans at dealers do to car prices..
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
Fairmont is like herpes. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
On a more serious note I’ve lost a lot of my enthusiasm pursuing pre 1875 gold that I find numismatically interesting. I’m having a difficult time motivating myself to checkout the latest SB Fairmont hoard.
I could tell a story about this... pertaining to the 2010 Stacks auction of a HUGE Proof large Note auction... I caught the bug and paid up for one... took a bath when I went to sell it 6 years later... I blamed the auction house for not doing a great writeup and this and this and that... In the end just violated my budget. Not a story teller... But severed my relationship with HA.
You know...the failure to identify the size of the hoard when it was first announced doesn't do much to prevent the thought that every little stash is being put together with other stashes and then being marketed as part of this "Fairmont Collection" or "Fairmont Hoard" even though for all we know coins that have nothing to do with the original stash are now piggy-backing off the name.
I love conspiracy theories !!
Or do I......
Off the top of anybody's head....are these Red Down Arrows significant declines from a few months ago (when gold rose) or a year ago (ditto) ? Or do they track other Double Eagles ?
If other Double Eagles were flat or up or only down a bit....but the Fairmont DEs were down 15-20% like DW's blog analyses implied...that's significant.
Why the wild speculation and baseless implied accusations?
I would suggest it’s actually the opposite - much of the Fairmont hoard appears to have been sold privately without the pedigree on the holder - primarily the common dates. Read Doug Winter’s write ups.
And forget the conspiracies.
It appears the cacs mania has certainly hit the saturation point. As the saying goes, a fool and his money are soon parted. Remember folks, once upon a time you were in this to collect coins and not silly little stickers. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
When SB has one Fairmont sale after another and they have never been forthright about the origins or how many coins are in the hoard what do you expect?
Was it Fairmont hype or was it the peak of stay-at-home Covid keyboard buying ?
The stock market and collectible markets had peaked a few months before. Maybe Fairmont caught a bid that wasn't as pronounced in coins/currency for top-end stuff (lower-end stuff did get bid up) but was more tied to the peak in stocks, the NASDAQ, stay-at-home plays, sports cards, etc.
This is a good, interesting post.
What I would add is that the sports collectibles/card market went NUTS with HUGE increases. In fact, you could make a case that with the exception of the Mickey Mantle and Michael Jordan Rookie Cards, sports cards had done nothing from 1994-2020.
Check out an Armen Ketayian piece from CBS Newsabout how it was only old guys and no crowd at a card "show" in Parsippany, NJ compared to the boom I was part of in the late-1980's/early-1990's (there's a video, too, but I can't find it):
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/collectors-lament-baseballs-house-of-cards/
Then Covid hit...people got checks and cash....home all day at their PC.....and bid everything up.
But while low-priced silver and small gold coins caught bids, the true numismatics and more expensive coins tracking bullion did NOT get bid up because they were out of the reach for most of the new collectors or new buyers. Low-priced morgans caught a bid, pre-1933 (esp. DEs) did NOT except to the extent that gold rose.
Why do you think that the marginal premium will dissipate further as gold rises ?
While I might expect that if the premium were large, I would think that if gold rises any marginal premium has room to expand.
At least for commons, premiums can be historically volatile and I'm not sure the sample size is statisically significant anyways:
I'll probably put out a market report on my blog tomorrow or this weekend, but its difficult to generalize a blanket statement for the current market. Yes, theres been considerable weakness among some segments of the market, but the advance collectors with whom I communicate often seem to be buying heavily as they were the past few years. The hobbyists/novice collectors seem to have been affected more by the economy, which could be illustrated with the woefully soft generic gold market. Among some of the worst softening I see is with higher grade common coins, late-date walkers for instance, or non CAC saints in 65/66. don't have much insight with the 20th century type, but I cant imagine that mercury dimes, lincoln cents, or buffalo nickels are doing much better.
Early federal is still hot, seated and bust material is faring well. Branch mint gold is doing fine, but better date classic philly gold is dead and buried. Even during the market highs, 19th century Philly gold wasn't getting any love. Early bust gold and pioneer/territorial is always red hot.
I think I agree with your observations that participants in other collectible markets can be more realistic than numismatists. In the coin world, there appears to be tendency to not want to accept or that the market is not strong anymore. I don't have an issue doing so, but I'm not the only one. I've seen other dealers adjust their pricing on languishing inventory, but it's all part of the natural cylce. In the grand scheme, I think It's actually healthy for a market to go through it's cycles. The covid surge brought in many wannabe dealers who were able to turn a profit with little to no knowledge of their offerings or numismatics in general, and for me there's no love lost watching them pack their bags. Some are buried in their inventory, and my advice would be to be cautious with non-established individual sellers at a time like this. Some operate on credit from the auction houses, or loans, and when it's time to pay the piper, they will dissapear swiftly with the coins and the cash. A few "dealers" have been exposed recently for writing bad checks, and we haven't seen the last of it.
I found this article about the Art market implosion to be an interesting read. If anyone cant get past the paywall, send me a pm and Ill send you the article in a message.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/18/briefing/art-market-downturn.html
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Perhaps I could have phrased better, but I said "premium paid will evaporate". Meaning if you pay $3500 for a DE, that $1000 premium you paid could easily be absorbed by the gold price over the next decade.
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Great report Dan @PeakRarities
I agree, I am seeing a strong CAC gold market. Non-CAC gold is pretty tough to move. Philadelphia gold always seems to be difficult to sell. Those series are so long and have so many coins to collect most are probably used as type coins.
I am not seeing much of a drop in CAC Capped Bust Halves. Those still bring strong money at auction and on dealer sites. The quality pieces do not last long on dealer sites. The non-CAC items can sit for months or more.
I wish things were different and I could add great pieces on the cheap. Just not happening.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Not surprised it's taken a hit.....while the market here is much more high-income, if only a few are taking a sabbatical, it has a Domino Effect.
Remember NFTs ? I still don't know what the heck they were....but they were down about 90% last I checked and I haven't seen an article or TV spot on them in months (years ?).
I like the quality of the Fairmont coins so I will keep buying them if I find ones I need. Unfortunately, the latest offering has almost nothing for me. Grades keep getting lower and there are longer and longer gaps of dates and issues.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
If it is generally recognized that hammer prices are lower on Sundays, why would any auction house end an auction on Sunday?
I'm not as knowledgeable and as well-versed in the history of collections going back decades as some of you.....but can any of you even REMOTELY remember a collection that has taken this long (7 years and counting) from initial discovery/sales and is still active ?
I guess with some of the old classic collections like Eliasberg they were sold over many years, but you KNEW how big the collections were initially. Fairmont is turning into an open-ended black hole.
For all we know, we could be half-way through the entire "Fairmont Hoard".....or.....it could be 100% completed and they're just selling any other additional coins they have access to and calling them Fairmont coins, whatever that means.
It really is a bit ridiculous, when you think about it.
I believe Fairmont is a hoard rather than a collection. I picture canvas bags of gold coins going to the grading service to be sorted, graded, and then slabbed.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Yes, Fairmont is actually a Canadian hotel as I recall where apparently some of the principals met.
My point remains: instead of dozens or hundreds or thousands of tiny hoards or family collections dribbling out over many years as has been the case for decades...you could have had the Fairmont principals purchase all these tiny hoards (from 5 coins to 500 or whatever) at a set time...and now they consolidate them into one big hoard despite the fact that most of the coins have nothing to do with one another.
It's not like the 1908 Wells Fargo NM Saints were it was pretty clear they were all together and shared a similar history.
There is no such recognition.