I wasn't going to vote because I think prices are up on almost everything (coins included) but that doesn't make things "over"-priced... it's just an overall reflection of the current economy. That said, even before the run up in prices, the strong material brought strong bids and pieces that were over-priced languished in inventory. I'm seeing the same thing happening now. Dealers that start auctions at low bids attract more bidders, and if the material is strong, end up at higher than Price Guide money. The BIN material that is much higher than listed Price Guides, sits.
Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;
They are definitely pricier than they were a few short years ago, and it's difficult to know if I should just bite the bullet and pay the premium now in case prices continue to climb, or wait it out and hope for a drop.
US Classic coins just not a deal for me at this time especially if bid war. Now some specialize in an area they can afford which is not a bad idea. Bob specializes in Franks and does well. “Not much downside on these” he says.
However slabbed World material (much lower pop) is especially a great deal when can get them at slab cost or what cost 2 people go out to dinner. Currency can easily make keystone margin. What gets me is can get MS70 ASE for $54 where a generic Morgan dollar more expensive.
Having collected tokens and medals, imperial Roman and British coins, I would vote “yes” based on the historical significance. Prices are based on supply and demand. Therefore, in that sense, U.S. coins are not over priced because many collectors and speculators want them.
Still, U.S. coins are a larger segment of the numismatic market than they might be given their overall significance.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Though we'd like to think of the Hobby being separate from the overall economy it seems this latest 3-4 year surge shows it isn't. Part of the rise is due to inflation but as much is due to pent up cash reserves and COVID hangover. Prior to 2019 coin prices were receding.
We are in the beginning of the largest wealth transfer in history. Some $68 Trillion by some estimates. For some, I would guess, it gives capital to buy coins they once dreamed of owning. There are very few top end coins that come to market. Rising prices does not mean over valued.
Nope. The market decides what something is worth. If someone is willing to buy it at $x, then that's what it's worth. Granted there are times when one or a few people are willing to spend more than anyone else, and becomes the outlier. Good market research can help avoid being that one that buys high and can't ever sell. The calculus is quite different if you are a collector or a reseller.
Edit: apparently I voted yes but I can't remember why 😂
By definition, there is no absolute value to measure "over" or "under" valued. Something is only under or overpriced relative to something else or the same object at a prior point in time.
If the question is, will prices fall or "tank" in a bad economy? Probably, but not necessarily across everything. US classics consist of thousands of coins across multiple grades with multiple specializations, depending upon the coin.
@Walkerfan said:
But but I think that Morgans are WAYYY overpriced compared to Seated Dollars. I can find multiple examples of almost any Morgan that I want, any day of the week, as long as I have the money. Many Seated dollars don't appear for years.
That's why Morgans are priced as they are. Most people won't try to collect coins they can't find to buy.
That’s probably true but then, by the same logic, why are Draped Bust Dollars so expensive? Very few of those are extant, too…
Draped Bust dollars are easy to buy. Only difficult in some specific eye appeal, die variety, or number on a TPG label.
Anyone here can look at Collectors Corner, eBay, or Heritage and find practically any US coin (US Mint) just from these three sources. This week in the Heritage Marketplace, multiple early dimes are available for most dates, mostly in MS. I think it is the 1798 has five MS in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66.
That's why Morgans are priced as they are. Most people won't try to collect coins they can't find to buy.
I attribute the price level to financially related buying. The more common dates (which are many) are so common, it's very unlikely most are owned by collectors. It's either that or these "collectors" are hoarders. Hundreds of thousands to potentially over 1MM UNC or BU for the most common dates, like the 81-S.
I only voted no because there wasn't a third "Some are, some aren't" option.
In general I agree that the market drives the prices, but there are some very common issues that IMO are overpriced and some issues priced as common dates that are not that common when you go to find a problem free example in that grade.
I wonder what the answers to a poll would be like on a stamp forum if one existed back in 1980. The way I see it, as this is a guess, I can go online and buy almost any US coin any day of the week. Probably about 95% of any example minted in some type of condition. The internet has basically destroyed the hunt in a generic sense.
I also think the average age of a coin collector is totally warped by state quarter and other things. The average age is probably closer to 60 versus 40.
Price guides, auction prices, and etc.. keep up appearances of value. When a very clean example sells for $500 in MS64 people in the industry often just take that price and walk it down in value for lesser examples. Keeping up the illusion that many others have "real value" and people go along with it.
There probably won't be some sudden drop in prices. It will just be a very slow decline for the majority of coins. Thus most are over priced. We play games with condition to differentiate 1 coin from 100,000 others which gets old after a while. Obviously rare and historic coins will continue with strong pricing while the rest are barely worth buying.
I would definitely not get back into the hobby and start buying up coins that are not significant in multiple ways. They have to be all there from multiple aspects. The rest.. blah. Inflation might keep prices stable right now but good luck as time goes on as people age out of the hobby for the pricier common stuff.
Pricing is supply and demand, numismatics is no different in that regard. Classic and modern coins are priced right, a balance between a fixed supply and demand.
@Vasanti said:
Don't people "age out of the hobby" every year and have been since any hobby was a hobby?
It is more a question if the hobby has a collector base that is growing or shrinking. Some hobbies lean towards older collectors and the total amount of collectors do decline as we age out.
Not many people have a desire to drop 500 dollars on some 1879-S morgan in a MS66 spiffy condition slabbed by pcgs and cac stickered with ten thousand plus more known to be in better condition or the same grade. (I made up this example fast but should be close).
Just typing that out kind of amuses me thinking what non collectors who have an understanding of antiques would say. That is not rare. That is crazy common. We are swimming in 1879-S morgans. A person could probably buy 100-500 of them in MS65 and up in a single sitting in front of a computer in one evening.
To actually sell it quickly one better drop that price way down. Way below "price guides".
@Vasanti said:
Don't people "age out of the hobby" every year and have been since any hobby was a hobby?
It is more a question if the hobby has a collector base that is growing or shrinking. Some hobbies lean towards older collectors and the total amount of collectors do decline as we age out.
It's also where this growth occurs. Last time I checked, US Census forecast went out to 2060. If it's ballpark accurate, the demographic group accounting for the overwhelming percentage of the US collector base (non-Hispanic white) is projected to shrink somewhat to my recollection. I'm presumably included in "Hispanic white" (but really not), so depending upon how someone looks at it, maybe this group will increase slightly, at most. I didn't see a gender breakout.
Either way, other demographic groups collect in much lower proportion to essentially not at all. To the extent they do, it's not going to be dominated by 20th century US coinage, as these people have much lower if any cultural connection to it. To the extent financially motivated buying retains current significance, I'd still expect Morgan dollars and common pre-1933 gold to be prioritized.
Going forward, I expect most 20th century US coinage to get displaced by (world) NCLT to an even greater extent.
@Walkerfan said:
But but I think that Morgans are WAYYY overpriced compared to Seated Dollars. I can find multiple examples of almost any Morgan that I want, any day of the week, as long as I have the money. Many Seated dollars don't appear for years.
That's why Morgans are priced as they are. Most people won't try to collect coins they can't find to buy.
That’s probably true but then, by the same logic, why are Draped Bust Dollars so expensive? Very few of those are extant, too…
Draped Bust dollars are easy to buy. Only difficult in some specific eye appeal, die variety, or number on a TPG label.
Anyone here can look at Collectors Corner, eBay, or Heritage and find practically any US coin (US Mint) just from these three sources. This week in the Heritage Marketplace, multiple early dimes are available for most dates, mostly in MS. I think it is the 1798 has five MS in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66.
Thanks for your reply. I TRULY appreciate it. If you look at the mintages and pop numbers; Draped Bust Dollars are no more available than Seated Dollars but they are, exponentially, more expensive. So, that still doesn't answer my question.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
@Walkerfan said:
But but I think that Morgans are WAYYY overpriced compared to Seated Dollars. I can find multiple examples of almost any Morgan that I want, any day of the week, as long as I have the money. Many Seated dollars don't appear for years.
That's why Morgans are priced as they are. Most people won't try to collect coins they can't find to buy.
That’s probably true but then, by the same logic, why are Draped Bust Dollars so expensive? Very few of those are extant, too…
Draped Bust dollars are easy to buy. Only difficult in some specific eye appeal, die variety, or number on a TPG label.
Anyone here can look at Collectors Corner, eBay, or Heritage and find practically any US coin (US Mint) just from these three sources. This week in the Heritage Marketplace, multiple early dimes are available for most dates, mostly in MS. I think it is the 1798 has five MS in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66.
Thanks for your reply. I TRULY appreciate it. If you look at the mintages and pop numbers; Draped Bust Dollars are no more available than Seated Dollars but they are, exponentially, more expensive. So, that still doesn't answer my question.
I attribute the price difference primarily due to collector design preference.
Both presumably have about equal demand from type collectors but there is less demand for Liberty Seated for each date for this reason. (i presume noticeably for the 59-O and 60-O for those who want an affordable higher quality coin,)
Bust dollars have a lot more demand for varieties. It's noticeable to my knowledge, as it is for all early federal coinage.
If completion is important to the buyer, the Seated dollar is too scarce as a series to enable a large collector base to complete it and it's not affordable either. Even if the scarcest coins (such as the 70-S) are omitted (which I presume most do not aspire to buy), the supply and cost presumably discourage most from even attempting it. This appears to be the point made in the prior posts. This is generically true of all Seated denominations, but the others are cheaper. This reason also applies to my primary interest (in world coinage), though it's a lot less expensive.
There appears to be a higher supply of "decent" or "nice" Bust dollars in low to mid-circulated grades. I don't own either but have looked at both.
My opinion only, but Draped Bust dollars are more expensive due to the rarity of Draped Bust issues in general.
Seated coinage is common and available, and that affects people who like the design. If you want to collect a large seated design, at a certain price point you can just buy halves. If you want a small eagle draped coin you have the choice of two classic rarities (25c and 50c), or the much smaller 5c and 10c pieces (which are still scarce). That pushes dollar demand up. The same is true with Heraldic eagle pieces, higher grade HE halves probably soak up some demand but I'm not sure how much given the lower population.
If the seated design wasn't shared with a run of minor coinage that spanned more than 50 years I'm sure the prices would be stronger.
@Walkerfan said:
But but I think that Morgans are WAYYY overpriced compared to Seated Dollars. I can find multiple examples of almost any Morgan that I want, any day of the week, as long as I have the money. Many Seated dollars don't appear for years.
That's why Morgans are priced as they are. Most people won't try to collect coins they can't find to buy.
That’s probably true but then, by the same logic, why are Draped Bust Dollars so expensive? Very few of those are extant, too…
Draped Bust dollars are easy to buy. Only difficult in some specific eye appeal, die variety, or number on a TPG label.
Anyone here can look at Collectors Corner, eBay, or Heritage and find practically any US coin (US Mint) just from these three sources. This week in the Heritage Marketplace, multiple early dimes are available for most dates, mostly in MS. I think it is the 1798 has five MS in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66.
Thanks for your reply. I TRULY appreciate it. If you look at the mintages and pop numbers; Draped Bust Dollars are no more available than Seated Dollars but they are, exponentially, more expensive. So, that still doesn't answer my question.
I attribute the price difference primarily due to collector design preference.
Both presumably have about equal demand from type collectors but there is less demand for Liberty Seated for each date for this reason. (i presume noticeably for the 59-O and 60-O for those who want an affordable higher quality coin,)
Bust dollars have a lot more demand for varieties. It's noticeable to my knowledge, as it is for all early federal coinage.
If completion is important to the buyer, the Seated dollar is too scarce as a series to enable a large collector base to complete it and it's not affordable either. Even if the scarcest coins (such as the 70-S) are omitted (which I presume most do not aspire to buy), the supply and cost presumably discourage most from even attempting it. This appears to be the point made in the prior posts. This is generically true of all Seated denominations, but the others are cheaper. This reason also applies to my primary interest (in world coinage), though it's a lot less expensive.
There appears to be a higher supply of "decent" or "nice" Bust dollars in low to mid-circulated grades. I don't own either but have looked at both.
Thank You. I appreciate your insight.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
@fluffy155 said:
My opinion only, but Draped Bust dollars are more expensive due to the rarity of Draped Bust issues in general.
Seated coinage is common and available, and that affects people who like the design. If you want to collect a large seated design, at a certain price point you can just buy halves. If you want a small eagle draped coin you have the choice of two classic rarities (25c and 50c), or the much smaller 5c and 10c pieces (which are still scarce). That pushes dollar demand up. The same is true with Heraldic eagle pieces, higher grade HE halves probably soak up some demand but I'm not sure how much given the lower population.
If the seated design wasn't shared with a run of minor coinage that spanned more than 50 years I'm sure the prices would be stronger.
Also some good points. Thank You.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
@Walkerfan said:
But but I think that Morgans are WAYYY overpriced compared to Seated Dollars. I can find multiple examples of almost any Morgan that I want, any day of the week, as long as I have the money. Many Seated dollars don't appear for years.
That's why Morgans are priced as they are. Most people won't try to collect coins they can't find to buy.
That’s probably true but then, by the same logic, why are Draped Bust Dollars so expensive? Very few of those are extant, too…
Draped Bust dollars are easy to buy. Only difficult in some specific eye appeal, die variety, or number on a TPG label.
Anyone here can look at Collectors Corner, eBay, or Heritage and find practically any US coin (US Mint) just from these three sources. This week in the Heritage Marketplace, multiple early dimes are available for most dates, mostly in MS. I think it is the 1798 has five MS in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66.
Thanks for your reply. I TRULY appreciate it. If you look at the mintages and pop numbers; Draped Bust Dollars are no more available than Seated Dollars but they are, exponentially, more expensive. So, that still doesn't answer my question.
I attribute the price difference primarily due to collector design preference.
Both presumably have about equal demand from type collectors but there is less demand for Liberty Seated for each date for this reason. (i presume noticeably for the 59-O and 60-O for those who want an affordable higher quality coin,)
Bust dollars have a lot more demand for varieties. It's noticeable to my knowledge, as it is for all early federal coinage.
If completion is important to the buyer, the Seated dollar is too scarce as a series to enable a large collector base to complete it and it's not affordable either. Even if the scarcest coins (such as the 70-S) are omitted (which I presume most do not aspire to buy), the supply and cost presumably discourage most from even attempting it. This appears to be the point made in the prior posts. This is generically true of all Seated denominations, but the others are cheaper. This reason also applies to my primary interest (in world coinage), though it's a lot less expensive.
There appears to be a higher supply of "decent" or "nice" Bust dollars in low to mid-circulated grades. I don't own either but have looked at both.
Thank You. I appreciate your insight.
A few months ago, I completed a ranking using Heritage archive data, measured by number of sales. There are many qualifiers in interpreting the results, but you might find this useful. It's for the circulation strikes, not proofs.
@Walkerfan said:
But but I think that Morgans are WAYYY overpriced compared to Seated Dollars. I can find multiple examples of almost any Morgan that I want, any day of the week, as long as I have the money. Many Seated dollars don't appear for years.
That's why Morgans are priced as they are. Most people won't try to collect coins they can't find to buy.
That’s probably true but then, by the same logic, why are Draped Bust Dollars so expensive? Very few of those are extant, too…
Draped Bust dollars are easy to buy. Only difficult in some specific eye appeal, die variety, or number on a TPG label.
Anyone here can look at Collectors Corner, eBay, or Heritage and find practically any US coin (US Mint) just from these three sources. This week in the Heritage Marketplace, multiple early dimes are available for most dates, mostly in MS. I think it is the 1798 has five MS in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66.
Thanks for your reply. I TRULY appreciate it. If you look at the mintages and pop numbers; Draped Bust Dollars are no more available than Seated Dollars but they are, exponentially, more expensive. So, that still doesn't answer my question.
I attribute the price difference primarily due to collector design preference.
Both presumably have about equal demand from type collectors but there is less demand for Liberty Seated for each date for this reason. (i presume noticeably for the 59-O and 60-O for those who want an affordable higher quality coin,)
Bust dollars have a lot more demand for varieties. It's noticeable to my knowledge, as it is for all early federal coinage.
If completion is important to the buyer, the Seated dollar is too scarce as a series to enable a large collector base to complete it and it's not affordable either. Even if the scarcest coins (such as the 70-S) are omitted (which I presume most do not aspire to buy), the supply and cost presumably discourage most from even attempting it. This appears to be the point made in the prior posts. This is generically true of all Seated denominations, but the others are cheaper. This reason also applies to my primary interest (in world coinage), though it's a lot less expensive.
There appears to be a higher supply of "decent" or "nice" Bust dollars in low to mid-circulated grades. I don't own either but have looked at both.
Thank You. I appreciate your insight.
A few months ago, I completed a ranking using Heritage archive data, measured by number of sales. There are many qualifiers in interpreting the results, but you might find this useful. It's for the circulation strikes, not proofs.
I just can’t see generic Morgan’s staying at current levels. I bought a Mexico pcgs 66 1978 100 peso piece for $42 recently. Pop of 138 / 35 higher. Now that’s a deal. That’s less than half a generic 63 Morgan is going for. 1879-s MS63 Morgan CF is $110 pop 25k.
A few months ago, I completed a ranking using Heritage archive data, measured by number of sales. There are many qualifiers in interpreting the results, but you might find this useful. It's for the circulation strikes, not proofs.
I don't know how to decipher this. Please explain.
The best indication of collector preference is how they spend their money. Collectors buy coins they prefer more at higher prices and in higher volume (subject to supply) over coins they prefer less.
This is where circulation strike Seated dollars rank at these price points measured by sales volume, relative to other series. So, for $200-$500, Seated dollars ranked 25th out of 84. There are 113 series in my rankings, but for this price range, I estimated that it wasn't possible (or it was evident) that 29 could not be bought below $500.
There are numerous qualifiers to this data. One example is if Heritage sales are not proportionate to the industry. For Seated dollars, I infer it is directionally representative. I considered Seated dollars proofs as a separate series under the assumption this is how it's generally collected. If this is not correct, the combined ranking will be higher, though this is also true of others.
@Cougar1978 said:
I just can’t see generic Morgan’s staying at current levels. I bought a Mexico pcgs 66 1978 100 peso piece for $42 recently. Pop of 138 / 35 higher. Now that’s a deal. That’s less than half a generic 63 Morgan is going for. 1879-s MS63 Morgan CF is $110 pop 25k.
Lately just been stacking up Mexico onzas.
I agree with you that this common Morgan dollar is relatively overpriced considering its relative collectible attributes, but it's an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Additionally, just because the Morgan dollar is relatively overpriced doesn't mean this Mexican coin should be worth (a lot) more. Believing that is a logical fallacy.
CAC is joining the TPG ranks to further make US Classic coins a commodity, which is how they are going to be sold to the younger generations of "collectors." For various reasons, that reality is often lamented here, but it has kept the hobby alive and thriving the past 35 years. I think CAC's main goal is to solidify condition and absolute rarities which will make US coins more attractive investment pieces, and will ultimately increase the amount of eyes on the coin market and drive prices up overall.
I think short term, there will likely be a dip in pricing. Times are getting tough for the average person. Demand for coins in the set I've been collecting the past 18 months seem to be softening, and I expect a slight dip in pricing.
@fc said:
I wonder what the answers to a poll would be like on a stamp forum if one existed back in 1980. The way I see it, as this is a guess, I can go online and buy almost any US coin any day of the week. Probably about 95% of any example minted in some type of condition. The internet has basically destroyed the hunt in a generic sense.
I also think the average age of a coin collector is totally warped by state quarter and other things. The average age is probably closer to 60 versus 40.
Price guides, auction prices, and etc.. keep up appearances of value. When a very clean example sells for $500 in MS64 people in the industry often just take that price and walk it down in value for lesser examples. Keeping up the illusion that many others have "real value" and people go along with it.
There probably won't be some sudden drop in prices. It will just be a very slow decline for the majority of coins. Thus most are over priced. We play games with condition to differentiate 1 coin from 100,000 others which gets old after a while. Obviously rare and historic coins will continue with strong pricing while the rest are barely worth buying.
I would definitely not get back into the hobby and start buying up coins that are not significant in multiple ways. They have to be all there from multiple aspects. The rest.. blah. Inflation might keep prices stable right now but good luck as time goes on as people age out of the hobby for the pricier common stuff.
Same answer. Stamps were not over-valued in 1980 and they are not under-valued in 2022. They were correctly valued by the marketplace at that time.
@Zoins said:
Is there a definition of "overpriced"?
As in, the price will likely be lower in say 12-24 months?
Why would that make them "overpriced" today? They are correctly priced at every moment in time. Times change. Was a loaf of bread "underpriced" a year ago?
People are interpreting the question that way. The question might have been intended that way. But future prices don't really indicate anything about the merits of current prices.
If you are charging $100 for a circ common date Mercury dime, it is overpriced because the market values them at $2. If you are charging $2 and it is worth $1.50 next year, it wasn't "overpriced" this year, the market just changed over time.
I just can’t see generic Morgan’s staying at current levels. I bought a Mexico pcgs 66 1978 100 peso piece for $42 recently. Pop of 138 / 35 higher. Now that’s a deal. That’s less than half a generic 63 Morgan is going for. 1879-s MS63 Morgan CF is $110 pop 25k.
Lately just been stacking up Mexico onzas.
Or you could argue that it is "overpriced" given that you paid $42 for $22 worth of silver. In fact, it is correctly priced as are Morgan dollars. The market sets the price and it has set them for both coins.
I did not vote. I do not think the question is specific to warrant a reasonable opinion. The US Classic coin market has several components and they are independent and capable of moving in different directions.
I see better questions that can be asked surrounding whether there are coin markets that might produce better opportunities if valuations/pricing is the sole consideration. I see other questions regarding surviving population across several markets and whether that surviving population is capable of creating greater interest in various coins.
Of course this is not limited to just US coins... one can look elsewhere and draw their own conclusions.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I just can’t see generic Morgan’s staying at current levels. I bought a Mexico pcgs 66 1978 100 peso piece for $42 recently. Pop of 138 / 35 higher. Now that’s a deal. That’s less than half a generic 63 Morgan is going for. 1879-s MS63 Morgan CF is $110 pop 25k.
Lately just been stacking up Mexico onzas.
Or you could argue that it is "overpriced" given that you paid $42 for $22 worth of silver. In fact, it is correctly priced as are Morgan dollars. The market sets the price and it has set them for both coins.
This along with the inference that the PCGS pop represents all known specimens in that grade or higher. I just checked NGC who has graded almost 1000, with about 300 in MS-66 or higher. It has a mintage of almost 10MM and I presume it's not a real circulating coin, which probably also means most exist somewhere with a noticeable proportion in similar quality.
It's another widget, just like the Morgan dollar and it's not relatively cheap either. So is that Mexican Onza.
@WCC said:
I just checked NGC who has graded almost 1000, with about 300 in MS-66 or higher. It has a mintage of almost 10MM and I presume it's not a real circulating coin, which probably also means most exist somewhere with a noticeable proportion in similar quality.
These never circulated widely, probably north of 95% of the mintage is still in mint state. I've got 10 rolls myself, just as they came from the mint. The least expensive piece recently sold on eBay is an ugly UNC, it's basically a $25 dollar coin wrapped in $20 worth of plastic when slabbed. Of course, not every $25 example you find will grade 66, but some will. Most people don't consider these for slabbing and don't bother trying to distinguish between 62-63-64-65-66, it's more like "BU", "Ch BU" and "Gem BU".
PCGS has graded about twice as many 1909-S VDB Lincolns as 1909-S Lincolns but the VDBs are priced about 5 times higher. Since both are being bought and sold all the time, neither is either overpriced or underpriced when priced around price guide levels.
@Zoins said:
Is there a definition of "overpriced"?
When price is considerable higher than coins in the same series with similar PCGS & NGC populations.
I really disagree with that definition. The population of S-VDB cents at PCGS is about 20,000. The population of 1915 Lincoln cents at PCGS is less than 1800. Not every coin is submitted in numbers proportional to their actual population.
@coinkat said: @jmlanzaf said:
I really disagree with that definition. The population of S-VDB cents at PCGS is about 20,000. The population of 1915 Lincoln cents at PCGS is less than 1800. Not every coin is submitted in numbers proportional to their actual population.
No, it isn't, especially when one coin is worth a lot more than the other one.
If we look at Mexico in an effort to use certain Mexican silver issues as representing a better value than common date Morgan Dollars, the argument has some merit. However, framing the rationale is the key as there are many components that need to be explored. This would include demand and how coins are promoted. Morgan Dollars have a romantic connection to American History... the old west and the New Orleans Mint and all the bells and whistles that the attract interest. There is the size, silver content and several collectors like the design and overall appearance. The concept is simple and easy to promote.
Having written all of that in the Readers Digest condensed format, how does one create interest and the dynamics for other coinage? The answers are not simple but seem to take care of themselves. And it feeds on itself and expands quickly. Look at what happened with Russian, Polish, Chinese, Hong Kong and even Bulgarian coinage. In all of these examples, the increases were swift and significant. All of the peaks transpired at different points in times and perhaps two of these examples still have not peaked- I will leave that to others to decide.
So if we look at Mexico, it's history and people as well as the art and design associated with its coinage- what do we know?
There are attractive designs and some interesting series to look for and complete. And in this instance, the 1978 100 peso coin in MS66 was offered as value. And in looking at this example, one must look at the merits of the design but one cannot overlook the surviving population especially in a high MS grade. And this is where the story gets more compelling... how much Mexican coinage has been melted? And I am not just writing about this coin, but other coins struck earlier such as the one peso coins from 1918-1945. There were other issues with higher denominations that followed in 1947 through 1960. And the same question is really significant... how many survived in GEM...65 and higher? I suspect the answer is less than we may think in view of the massive melting of silver that transpired during the silver boom of the 1979-81 time frame as well as the peaks that followed. The history is there and it is a story told in part through its coinage. The art and design is present- how can anyone not like the 1921 silver 2 Pesos coin or the Caballitio Peso design among others?
There is another issue which is one of economics and the rise of a middle class. We have seen what that has done elsewhere throughout the world.
The moral of the story here is... Do not judge prematurely when there are factors in play that may change the landscape.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
This becomes more of an exercise of what is easily promoted which in part is related to demand arising from an effort to complete a set. A 1909-s VDB is not a rare coin... it was promoted as a rare coin and if we look at the surviving population in various grades, starting at EF40 and extending through the upper MS levels, we know that numbers capture what is important. However, there is the story, the first year of issue and the attachment collectors have with US Cents which creates demand. And with demand comes competition and support for prices. And the cycle continues over time and manifests itself into legendary status.
I have never owned a 1909 -S VDB and ownership it is simply not in my numismatic plans. Having written that, I would much rather own several of his others works that exist in medals issued from the late 1890s until the time he prematurely passed.
Seems we agree that surviving population is a critical factor that is often overlooked. And I will take it to the next level- it is also about quality for the grade within the surviving population. Holders and stickers do not change the coin but only the perception which is subject to change over time.
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I wasn't going to vote because I think prices are up on almost everything (coins included) but that doesn't make things "over"-priced... it's just an overall reflection of the current economy. That said, even before the run up in prices, the strong material brought strong bids and pieces that were over-priced languished in inventory. I'm seeing the same thing happening now. Dealers that start auctions at low bids attract more bidders, and if the material is strong, end up at higher than Price Guide money. The BIN material that is much higher than listed Price Guides, sits.
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Since coins represent a free market, by definition, no.
They are definitely pricier than they were a few short years ago, and it's difficult to know if I should just bite the bullet and pay the premium now in case prices continue to climb, or wait it out and hope for a drop.
Prices are strong, but I still think quality coins are a good buy currently. 👍
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US Classic Coins vs World coins.
US Classic coins just not a deal for me at this time especially if bid war. Now some specialize in an area they can afford which is not a bad idea. Bob specializes in Franks and does well. “Not much downside on these” he says.
However slabbed World material (much lower pop) is especially a great deal when can get them at slab cost or what cost 2 people go out to dinner. Currency can easily make keystone margin. What gets me is can get MS70 ASE for $54 where a generic Morgan dollar more expensive.
Having collected tokens and medals, imperial Roman and British coins, I would vote “yes” based on the historical significance. Prices are based on supply and demand. Therefore, in that sense, U.S. coins are not over priced because many collectors and speculators want them.
Still, U.S. coins are a larger segment of the numismatic market than they might be given their overall significance.
Though we'd like to think of the Hobby being separate from the overall economy it seems this latest 3-4 year surge shows it isn't. Part of the rise is due to inflation but as much is due to pent up cash reserves and COVID hangover. Prior to 2019 coin prices were receding.
We are in the beginning of the largest wealth transfer in history. Some $68 Trillion by some estimates. For some, I would guess, it gives capital to buy coins they once dreamed of owning. There are very few top end coins that come to market. Rising prices does not mean over valued.
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Nope. The market decides what something is worth. If someone is willing to buy it at $x, then that's what it's worth. Granted there are times when one or a few people are willing to spend more than anyone else, and becomes the outlier. Good market research can help avoid being that one that buys high and can't ever sell. The calculus is quite different if you are a collector or a reseller.
Edit: apparently I voted yes but I can't remember why 😂
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What is the actual question?
By definition, there is no absolute value to measure "over" or "under" valued. Something is only under or overpriced relative to something else or the same object at a prior point in time.
If the question is, will prices fall or "tank" in a bad economy? Probably, but not necessarily across everything. US classics consist of thousands of coins across multiple grades with multiple specializations, depending upon the coin.
Draped Bust dollars are easy to buy. Only difficult in some specific eye appeal, die variety, or number on a TPG label.
Anyone here can look at Collectors Corner, eBay, or Heritage and find practically any US coin (US Mint) just from these three sources. This week in the Heritage Marketplace, multiple early dimes are available for most dates, mostly in MS. I think it is the 1798 has five MS in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66.
I attribute the price level to financially related buying. The more common dates (which are many) are so common, it's very unlikely most are owned by collectors. It's either that or these "collectors" are hoarders. Hundreds of thousands to potentially over 1MM UNC or BU for the most common dates, like the 81-S.
I only voted no because there wasn't a third "Some are, some aren't" option.
In general I agree that the market drives the prices, but there are some very common issues that IMO are overpriced and some issues priced as common dates that are not that common when you go to find a problem free example in that grade.
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I wonder what the answers to a poll would be like on a stamp forum if one existed back in 1980. The way I see it, as this is a guess, I can go online and buy almost any US coin any day of the week. Probably about 95% of any example minted in some type of condition. The internet has basically destroyed the hunt in a generic sense.
I also think the average age of a coin collector is totally warped by state quarter and other things. The average age is probably closer to 60 versus 40.
Price guides, auction prices, and etc.. keep up appearances of value. When a very clean example sells for $500 in MS64 people in the industry often just take that price and walk it down in value for lesser examples. Keeping up the illusion that many others have "real value" and people go along with it.
There probably won't be some sudden drop in prices. It will just be a very slow decline for the majority of coins. Thus most are over priced. We play games with condition to differentiate 1 coin from 100,000 others which gets old after a while. Obviously rare and historic coins will continue with strong pricing while the rest are barely worth buying.
I would definitely not get back into the hobby and start buying up coins that are not significant in multiple ways. They have to be all there from multiple aspects. The rest.. blah. Inflation might keep prices stable right now but good luck as time goes on as people age out of the hobby for the pricier common stuff.
Don't people "age out of the hobby" every year and have been since any hobby was a hobby?
Pricing is supply and demand, numismatics is no different in that regard. Classic and modern coins are priced right, a balance between a fixed supply and demand.
I think pricing is high and hot in general, but it seems quieter on here and elsewhere at the same time...
And as mentioned, assets in general are hot right now. Most things seem overpriced...
It is more a question if the hobby has a collector base that is growing or shrinking. Some hobbies lean towards older collectors and the total amount of collectors do decline as we age out.
Not many people have a desire to drop 500 dollars on some 1879-S morgan in a MS66 spiffy condition slabbed by pcgs and cac stickered with ten thousand plus more known to be in better condition or the same grade. (I made up this example fast but should be close).
Just typing that out kind of amuses me thinking what non collectors who have an understanding of antiques would say. That is not rare. That is crazy common. We are swimming in 1879-S morgans. A person could probably buy 100-500 of them in MS65 and up in a single sitting in front of a computer in one evening.
To actually sell it quickly one better drop that price way down. Way below "price guides".
It's also where this growth occurs. Last time I checked, US Census forecast went out to 2060. If it's ballpark accurate, the demographic group accounting for the overwhelming percentage of the US collector base (non-Hispanic white) is projected to shrink somewhat to my recollection. I'm presumably included in "Hispanic white" (but really not), so depending upon how someone looks at it, maybe this group will increase slightly, at most. I didn't see a gender breakout.
Either way, other demographic groups collect in much lower proportion to essentially not at all. To the extent they do, it's not going to be dominated by 20th century US coinage, as these people have much lower if any cultural connection to it. To the extent financially motivated buying retains current significance, I'd still expect Morgan dollars and common pre-1933 gold to be prioritized.
Going forward, I expect most 20th century US coinage to get displaced by (world) NCLT to an even greater extent.
Thanks for your reply. I TRULY appreciate it. If you look at the mintages and pop numbers; Draped Bust Dollars are no more available than Seated Dollars but they are, exponentially, more expensive. So, that still doesn't answer my question.
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I attribute the price difference primarily due to collector design preference.
Both presumably have about equal demand from type collectors but there is less demand for Liberty Seated for each date for this reason. (i presume noticeably for the 59-O and 60-O for those who want an affordable higher quality coin,)
Bust dollars have a lot more demand for varieties. It's noticeable to my knowledge, as it is for all early federal coinage.
If completion is important to the buyer, the Seated dollar is too scarce as a series to enable a large collector base to complete it and it's not affordable either. Even if the scarcest coins (such as the 70-S) are omitted (which I presume most do not aspire to buy), the supply and cost presumably discourage most from even attempting it. This appears to be the point made in the prior posts. This is generically true of all Seated denominations, but the others are cheaper. This reason also applies to my primary interest (in world coinage), though it's a lot less expensive.
There appears to be a higher supply of "decent" or "nice" Bust dollars in low to mid-circulated grades. I don't own either but have looked at both.
My opinion only, but Draped Bust dollars are more expensive due to the rarity of Draped Bust issues in general.
Seated coinage is common and available, and that affects people who like the design. If you want to collect a large seated design, at a certain price point you can just buy halves. If you want a small eagle draped coin you have the choice of two classic rarities (25c and 50c), or the much smaller 5c and 10c pieces (which are still scarce). That pushes dollar demand up. The same is true with Heraldic eagle pieces, higher grade HE halves probably soak up some demand but I'm not sure how much given the lower population.
If the seated design wasn't shared with a run of minor coinage that spanned more than 50 years I'm sure the prices would be stronger.
Thank You. I appreciate your insight.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Also some good points. Thank You.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
A few months ago, I completed a ranking using Heritage archive data, measured by number of sales. There are many qualifiers in interpreting the results, but you might find this useful. It's for the circulation strikes, not proofs.
$200-500: 25/84
$500-2500: 25/99
$2500-$10K: 31/108
$10k-$50K: 35/108
$50k-$100k: 25/86
$100K+: 41/76
I don't know how to decipher this. Please explain.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I just can’t see generic Morgan’s staying at current levels. I bought a Mexico pcgs 66 1978 100 peso piece for $42 recently. Pop of 138 / 35 higher. Now that’s a deal. That’s less than half a generic 63 Morgan is going for. 1879-s MS63 Morgan CF is $110 pop 25k.
Lately just been stacking up Mexico onzas.
Classic US coins are the foundation of the country. Price is what it is. Peace Roy
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The best indication of collector preference is how they spend their money. Collectors buy coins they prefer more at higher prices and in higher volume (subject to supply) over coins they prefer less.
This is where circulation strike Seated dollars rank at these price points measured by sales volume, relative to other series. So, for $200-$500, Seated dollars ranked 25th out of 84. There are 113 series in my rankings, but for this price range, I estimated that it wasn't possible (or it was evident) that 29 could not be bought below $500.
There are numerous qualifiers to this data. One example is if Heritage sales are not proportionate to the industry. For Seated dollars, I infer it is directionally representative. I considered Seated dollars proofs as a separate series under the assumption this is how it's generally collected. If this is not correct, the combined ranking will be higher, though this is also true of others.
I agree with you that this common Morgan dollar is relatively overpriced considering its relative collectible attributes, but it's an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Additionally, just because the Morgan dollar is relatively overpriced doesn't mean this Mexican coin should be worth (a lot) more. Believing that is a logical fallacy.
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Is there a definition of "overpriced"?
As in, the price will likely be lower in say 12-24 months?
Maybe the US market is like a round of musical chairs? It's not overpriced until you're the one with out a seat (or buyer).
CAC is joining the TPG ranks to further make US Classic coins a commodity, which is how they are going to be sold to the younger generations of "collectors." For various reasons, that reality is often lamented here, but it has kept the hobby alive and thriving the past 35 years. I think CAC's main goal is to solidify condition and absolute rarities which will make US coins more attractive investment pieces, and will ultimately increase the amount of eyes on the coin market and drive prices up overall.
I think short term, there will likely be a dip in pricing. Times are getting tough for the average person. Demand for coins in the set I've been collecting the past 18 months seem to be softening, and I expect a slight dip in pricing.
Same answer. Stamps were not over-valued in 1980 and they are not under-valued in 2022. They were correctly valued by the marketplace at that time.
Why would that make them "overpriced" today? They are correctly priced at every moment in time. Times change. Was a loaf of bread "underpriced" a year ago?
People are interpreting the question that way. The question might have been intended that way. But future prices don't really indicate anything about the merits of current prices.
If you are charging $100 for a circ common date Mercury dime, it is overpriced because the market values them at $2. If you are charging $2 and it is worth $1.50 next year, it wasn't "overpriced" this year, the market just changed over time.
Or you could argue that it is "overpriced" given that you paid $42 for $22 worth of silver. In fact, it is correctly priced as are Morgan dollars. The market sets the price and it has set them for both coins.
I did not vote. I do not think the question is specific to warrant a reasonable opinion. The US Classic coin market has several components and they are independent and capable of moving in different directions.
I see better questions that can be asked surrounding whether there are coin markets that might produce better opportunities if valuations/pricing is the sole consideration. I see other questions regarding surviving population across several markets and whether that surviving population is capable of creating greater interest in various coins.
Of course this is not limited to just US coins... one can look elsewhere and draw their own conclusions.
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depends if I'm buying or selling
This along with the inference that the PCGS pop represents all known specimens in that grade or higher. I just checked NGC who has graded almost 1000, with about 300 in MS-66 or higher. It has a mintage of almost 10MM and I presume it's not a real circulating coin, which probably also means most exist somewhere with a noticeable proportion in similar quality.
It's another widget, just like the Morgan dollar and it's not relatively cheap either. So is that Mexican Onza.
These never circulated widely, probably north of 95% of the mintage is still in mint state. I've got 10 rolls myself, just as they came from the mint. The least expensive piece recently sold on eBay is an ugly UNC, it's basically a $25 dollar coin wrapped in $20 worth of plastic when slabbed. Of course, not every $25 example you find will grade 66, but some will. Most people don't consider these for slabbing and don't bother trying to distinguish between 62-63-64-65-66, it's more like "BU", "Ch BU" and "Gem BU".
When price is considerable higher than coins in the same series with similar PCGS & NGC populations.
PCGS has graded about twice as many 1909-S VDB Lincolns as 1909-S Lincolns but the VDBs are priced about 5 times higher. Since both are being bought and sold all the time, neither is either overpriced or underpriced when priced around price guide levels.
I really disagree with that definition. The population of S-VDB cents at PCGS is about 20,000. The population of 1915 Lincoln cents at PCGS is less than 1800. Not every coin is submitted in numbers proportional to their actual population.
No, it isn't, especially when one coin is worth a lot more than the other one.
If we look at Mexico in an effort to use certain Mexican silver issues as representing a better value than common date Morgan Dollars, the argument has some merit. However, framing the rationale is the key as there are many components that need to be explored. This would include demand and how coins are promoted. Morgan Dollars have a romantic connection to American History... the old west and the New Orleans Mint and all the bells and whistles that the attract interest. There is the size, silver content and several collectors like the design and overall appearance. The concept is simple and easy to promote.
Having written all of that in the Readers Digest condensed format, how does one create interest and the dynamics for other coinage? The answers are not simple but seem to take care of themselves. And it feeds on itself and expands quickly. Look at what happened with Russian, Polish, Chinese, Hong Kong and even Bulgarian coinage. In all of these examples, the increases were swift and significant. All of the peaks transpired at different points in times and perhaps two of these examples still have not peaked- I will leave that to others to decide.
So if we look at Mexico, it's history and people as well as the art and design associated with its coinage- what do we know?
There are attractive designs and some interesting series to look for and complete. And in this instance, the 1978 100 peso coin in MS66 was offered as value. And in looking at this example, one must look at the merits of the design but one cannot overlook the surviving population especially in a high MS grade. And this is where the story gets more compelling... how much Mexican coinage has been melted? And I am not just writing about this coin, but other coins struck earlier such as the one peso coins from 1918-1945. There were other issues with higher denominations that followed in 1947 through 1960. And the same question is really significant... how many survived in GEM...65 and higher? I suspect the answer is less than we may think in view of the massive melting of silver that transpired during the silver boom of the 1979-81 time frame as well as the peaks that followed. The history is there and it is a story told in part through its coinage. The art and design is present- how can anyone not like the 1921 silver 2 Pesos coin or the Caballitio Peso design among others?
There is another issue which is one of economics and the rise of a middle class. We have seen what that has done elsewhere throughout the world.
The moral of the story here is... Do not judge prematurely when there are factors in play that may change the landscape.
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This becomes more of an exercise of what is easily promoted which in part is related to demand arising from an effort to complete a set. A 1909-s VDB is not a rare coin... it was promoted as a rare coin and if we look at the surviving population in various grades, starting at EF40 and extending through the upper MS levels, we know that numbers capture what is important. However, there is the story, the first year of issue and the attachment collectors have with US Cents which creates demand. And with demand comes competition and support for prices. And the cycle continues over time and manifests itself into legendary status.
I have never owned a 1909 -S VDB and ownership it is simply not in my numismatic plans. Having written that, I would much rather own several of his others works that exist in medals issued from the late 1890s until the time he prematurely passed.
Seems we agree that surviving population is a critical factor that is often overlooked. And I will take it to the next level- it is also about quality for the grade within the surviving population. Holders and stickers do not change the coin but only the perception which is subject to change over time.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.