@yspsales said:
The more I have thought on the subject, the more I plan to focus on key dates
Better coins in stronger hands create a floor.
The remainder... meh
That's why I just like Type. You buy a nice example of the designs you like. A change in date or mm is meh to me. If the bottom drops out...meh. I still have my pretty precious. Lol
I remember the rage on VAM's in the rare 14's for the 1878 8TF Vam's.
Just recently added one to my collection.
Lurking at Vamworld forum for many years...
I wonder how many are being held back?
How long will the old timers continue to hold?
Where will values go?
Are there enough 1878 8TF collectors to dive that deep?
There are probably a dozen more numbers I would enjoy, and problem free examples are not readily available.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
The Byrds had a great hit song called Turn, Turn, Turn. Supply and demand will be the arbiter of classic US coin costs. I don't know if they're overpriced? My intuition says maybe? But for now, I'm going to enjoy the numismatic ride. Realizing of course, there is a season Turn, Turn, Turn.
@Zoins said:
While some collectors may come across as harsh in discussions of valuation on the U.S. coin market, if they are objective, it can be a good discussion to have.
For example, in these discussions, often a comparison is made comparing U.S. coins to coins from other countries. While U.S. coins can be priced relatively higher for the same grade, denomination, composition, etc., that doesn't necessarily mean they are overpriced, but it can mean they are less affordable. When comparing prices of coins like this, I like to compare collector populations including: population trends, disposable income trends , inclination to buy coin collectibles, maturity of the collecting market for those coins, etc. Normally, when I see underpricing at this level, it has to do with understanding a population is going to have much more disposable income in the future paired with an inclination to buy coins. This has played out several times and is exciting to watch.
US coins are viewed as overpriced to non-US coinage based upon subjective assessments of the collectible attributes. That's the usual inference.
If anyone looks at what the same money can buy in both, it's evident that for the same budget, you can buy coins that collectors such as myself find a lot more interesting.
This doesn't matter to most US collectors. Most collectors tend to prefer coins from their home country or culture of origin. I don't see this just in the US. It's evident in foreign auctions where local coinage dominates or predominates. In South Africa which used to be my primary interest, they also overwhelmingly prefer their own coinage to all others.
The second big reason US collectors prefer US coinage is due to relative marketability. Most non-US coinage of similar value is a lot less liquid which often leads to unpredictable results at resale. Most collectors (from anywhere) usually don't like what they buy enough to lose a "noticeable" percentage of their cost if it's "meaningful" to them, so they won't buy coins like I do which they otherwise might if they believed they could get most of their money back.
A third reason with many non-US coins is lack of supply, either absolutely or across the quality distribution. With the vast majority of US coins, you can buy it now or at most within a few months. If you can't find the coin in the exact quality or appearance you want, you can buy a slightly lower one which most collectors view interchangeably. This doesn't apply with many non-US coins. Many collectors prefer to buy coins that are somewhat scarce (even if narrowly defined) but having (virtually) nothing to buy discourages most from even attempting it.
@Catbert said:
Assuming buyers are using discretionary income on this hobby (and I hope the majority do) then I think the perceived market valuation is irrelevant. One buys a coin because they are passionate about its acquisition and price becomes less critical (up to a point). So no, I think the present market reflects demand along with inflationary pressures as do other markets. So therefore, not over valued.
I also assume most collectors use discretionary income. This still doesn't mean they don't mind losing money by treating it predominantly or entirely as a consumption expense. This mindset is evident just on this forum. Many collectors have substantial "investments" in their collection and the resources to buy it usually just didn't drop into their bank account. It usually took some effort (working and saving) and most buyers would rather use the funds for something else versus on coins that either do or the buyer believes will lose "noticeable" (proportional) value.
It's a function of the buyer's attitude toward collecting, their financial circumstances, and their risk tolerance.
Only a very thin market can contain over- and under- priced coins because they don't trade very often and the last sale could be an outlier. But for mature markets with active trading, the value is well established.
This describes my primary collecting interest. When I consider or attempt to buy one of these, I use the closest comparable, but it's not the same coin in the same grade or even the same coin in a lower grade. Usually, it's another date from the same denomination but even here, it's not always (or even usually) in the same (or near) quality because there has been no recent public sale and maybe no prior public sale at all.
@EastonCollection said:
After reading these threads, I still think classic coins overall are undervalued.
For example, a mint state Capped bust Half dollar should be worth around $40k not $6k or so. I can go on but you get my thinking. Obviously there are great eye appealing coins that should be worth alot as well. Coins are valued based on supply and demand. Why should 30 year baseball cards be worth alot more than classic coins 100+ older.
Expensive baseball cards and US classic coins have nothing in common, other than both are mass produced objects and dominated by TPG and financialization.
Your post reminds me of a prior Coin Week article comparing the Brasher Doubloon to "Scream" (a painting) where the author claimed the coin was "undervalued" due to the history. The buyer of "Scream" (or other art) almost certainly doesn't even know the Brasher Doubloon exists and wouldn't care if they did know. It's irrelevant to them. No different for other coins or in assessing other collectible fields.
The only likely person who would ever pay $40K for a Capped Bust half is a US coin collector, not anyone else. They aren't going to pay $40K for one worth $6K now because this new price (in the current market or in currently valued money) would make it hopelessly uncompetitive with the alternatives (in other US classics) which are viewed by most US collectors as having superior collectible attributes.
All other similarly priced US classics aren't going to increase in roughly comparable proportion either, as this means current collectors would not be able to collect at the numismatic level to which they are accustomed. Most collectors don't have the resources to increase their budget 6X+ and wouldn't if they could. They also wouldn't do it to pay 6X+ for the same coins. Finally, under your scenario, they aren't going down that far their preference level to buy what they could then afford, as it wouldn't be sufficiently interesting to them.
@Catbert said:
Assuming buyers are using discretionary income on this hobby (and I hope the majority do) then I think the perceived market valuation is irrelevant. One buys a coin because they are passionate about its acquisition and price becomes less critical (up to a point). So no, I think the present market reflects demand along with inflationary pressures as do other markets. So therefore, not over valued.
I also assume most collectors use discretionary income. This still doesn't mean they don't mind losing money by treating it predominantly or entirely as a consumption expense. This mindset is evident just on this forum. Many collectors have substantial "investments" in their collection and the resources to buy it usually just didn't drop into their bank account. It usually took some effort (working and saving) and most buyers would rather use the funds for something else versus on coins that either do or the buyer believes will lose "noticeable" (proportional) value.
It's a function of the buyer's attitude toward collecting, their financial circumstances, and their risk tolerance.
And yet the demand is still healthy so those with money are spending!
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
@MasonG said:
Nobody needs to buy any coin, it's a discretionary purchase. If people are buying them, they're not overpriced.
Or just not as smart as the people who think they are overpriced. Lol.
While I allow for pricing to be erratic in thin markets, anyone who thinks the bulk of the coin market isn't properly priced (high or low) simply thinks they are smarter than the collective wisdom of a market that encompasses hundreds or thousands of sales. A 1913 Liberty nickel might not have well established value because they trade so rarely. But a bust half or coronet cent are traded so frequently that they have well established values.
You want to make money, don't question the market, understand it.
@jmlanzaf said:
While I allow for pricing to be erratic in thin markets, anyone who thinks the bulk of the coin market isn't properly priced (high or low) simply thinks they are smarter than the collective wisdom of a market that encompasses hundreds or thousands of sales.
I think a lot of those people aren't saying they're smarter than the collective wisdom of a market, but instead, that their definition of "overpriced" is "more than I want to pay".
@jmlanzaf said:
While I allow for pricing to be erratic in thin markets, anyone who thinks the bulk of the coin market isn't properly priced (high or low) simply thinks they are smarter than the collective wisdom of a market that encompasses hundreds or thousands of sales.
I think a lot of those people aren't saying they're smarter than the collective wisdom of a market, but instead, that their definition of "overpriced" is "more than I want to pay".
Perhaps, but they aren't really phrasing it that way.
Talking about overpriced and underpriced... some of these miniscule CPG varieties spring to mind as examples... fans of such things want to discover and "make" them, but not buy them. So they might be "overpriced" when the initial finds are made but could actually end up "underpriced" (in relationship to their actual rarity at least) due to a very thin retail market. In other words, not enough people chasing them to sustain any major value long term.
@EastonCollection said:
After reading these threads, I still think classic coins overall are undervalued.
For example, a mint state Capped bust Half dollar should be worth around $40k not $6k or so. I can go on but you get my thinking. Obviously there are great eye appealing coins that should be worth alot as well. Coins are valued based on supply and demand. Why should 30 year baseball cards be worth alot more than classic coins 100+ older.
If coins values are based on supply and demand and a CBH should be worth $40k and not $6k, what can change on the supply and demand sides for that to happen?
If you will permit me a digression: there is no one supply and demand, rather everything has a whole spectrum of supplies and demands. Let's take a 1923-D raw MS 65 Saint. It's safe to say that almost anyone would pay $20 for it, except some people would understand that they must take it to a bank and get a paper $20 because the gas station wouldn't believe it's real. So assume everyone (literally everyone) would buy this Saint once they were assured it was both "really" gold and legal tender for at least $15. At the other point, we have a member on another thread who has stated, perhaps hyperbolically, that he wouldn't sell this coin for $1B. But let's assume everyone (else) would. So there is effectively infinite demand at $15 and infinite supply just over $1B.
So now as you raise the price, demand drops off, and as you lower the price, the supply increases. It is not, perhaps, obvious until it is pointed out, but there are fewer people willing to buy this coin at $1000 than at $500, fewer at $1800 than at $1000, fewer at $3500 than at $1800, and fewer at $5000 than at $3500. By the same logic, there is more supply as you go up the scale. So eventually we arrive at a price where the demand equals the supply (one of these sold on eBay yesterday for $3550). So let's assume this $3550 is this equilibrium price. Any bids higher than $3550 will be met, and likewise any asks lower than that number. But, people not being stupid, anyone willing to pay $10,000 or accept $2000 will set his bid/ask very close to this $3550 price, with just a little difference to get a priority. Maybe offer $3575 so to be sure to get the next one whose owner is willing to sell for $3550 or less.
When I taught calculus we called the sum of what all sellers were willing to receive beneath the equilibrium price and what all buyers were willing to pay above it the "Social Gain."
So, to answer @Zoins question (the tl;dr), what can change is for the demand prices to increase. That is if people were to offer $8k, then $10k, etc., it would draw these CBHs into the market. We all (or almost all) have prices we would release our treasures at, even if they are many multiples of current "value", and I bet offering $12k, or twice guide, for these coins would draw out more than you'd believe.
Note that this supply/demand works for everything except where the law fixes prices. But that's a topic for another post.
@EastonCollection said:
After reading these threads, I still think classic coins overall are undervalued.
For example, a mint state Capped bust Half dollar should be worth around $40k not $6k or so. I can go on but you get my thinking. Obviously there are great eye appealing coins that should be worth alot as well. Coins are valued based on supply and demand. Why should 30 year baseball cards be worth alot more than classic coins 100+ older.
If coins values are based on supply and demand and a CBH should be worth $40k and not $6k, what can change on the supply and demand sides for that to happen?
If you will permit me a digression: there is no one supply and demand, rather everything has a whole spectrum of supplies and demands. Let's take a 1923-D raw MS 65 Saint. It's safe to say that almost anyone would pay $20 for it, except some people would understand that they must take it to a bank and get a paper $20 because the gas station wouldn't believe it's real. So assume everyone (literally everyone) would buy this Saint once they were assured it was both "really" gold and legal tender for at least $15. At the other point, we have a member on another thread who has stated, perhaps hyperbolically, that he wouldn't sell this coin for $1B. But let's assume everyone (else) would. So there is effectively infinite demand at $15 and infinite supply just over $1B.
So now as you raise the price, demand drops off, and as you lower the price, the supply increases. It is not, perhaps, obvious until it is pointed out, but there are fewer people willing to buy this coin at $1000 than at $500, multiples of current "value", and I bet offering $12k, or twice guide, for these coins would draw out more than you'd believe.
Note that this supply/demand works for everything except where the law fixes prices. But that's a topic for another post.
Well described. The only slight correction is that there cannot be a point of "infinite supply" with a finite commodity. Even at $1 trillion, there are only as many coins as exist. You can't simply manufacture more.
@EastonCollection said:
After reading these threads, I still think classic coins overall are undervalued.
For example, a mint state Capped bust Half dollar should be worth around $40k not $6k or so. I can go on but you get my thinking. Obviously there are great eye appealing coins that should be worth alot as well. Coins are valued based on supply and demand. Why should 30 year baseball cards be worth alot more than classic coins 100+ older.
If coins values are based on supply and demand and a CBH should be worth $40k and not $6k, what can change on the supply and demand sides for that to happen?
If you will permit me a digression: there is no one supply and demand, rather everything has a whole spectrum of supplies and demands. Let's take a 1923-D raw MS 65 Saint. It's safe to say that almost anyone would pay $20 for it, except some people would understand that they must take it to a bank and get a paper $20 because the gas station wouldn't believe it's real. So assume everyone (literally everyone) would buy this Saint once they were assured it was both "really" gold and legal tender for at least $15. At the other point, we have a member on another thread who has stated, perhaps hyperbolically, that he wouldn't sell this coin for $1B. But let's assume everyone (else) would. So there is effectively infinite demand at $15 and infinite supply just over $1B.
So now as you raise the price, demand drops off, and as you lower the price, the supply increases. It is not, perhaps, obvious until it is pointed out, but there are fewer people willing to buy this coin at $1000 than at $500, fewer at $1800 than at $1000, fewer at $3500 than at $1800, and fewer at $5000 than at $3500. By the same logic, there is more supply as you go up the scale. So eventually we arrive at a price where the demand equals the supply (one of these sold on eBay yesterday for $3550). So let's assume this $3550 is this equilibrium price. Any bids higher than $3550 will be met, and likewise any asks lower than that number. But, people not being stupid, anyone willing to pay $10,000 or accept $2000 will set his bid/ask very close to this $3550 price, with just a little difference to get a priority. Maybe offer $3575 so to be sure to get the next one whose owner is willing to sell for $3550 or less.
When I taught calculus we called the sum of what all sellers were willing to receive beneath the equilibrium price and what all buyers were willing to pay above it the "Social Gain."
So, to answer @Zoins question (the tl;dr), what can change is for the demand prices to increase. That is if people were to offer $8k, then $10k, etc., it would draw these CBHs into the market. We all (or almost all) have prices we would release our treasures at, even if they are many multiples of current "value", and I bet offering $12k, or twice guide, for these coins would draw out more than you'd believe.
Note that this supply/demand works for everything except where the law fixes prices. But that's a topic for another post.
Good info.
How can we apply this to @EastonCollection's comment that CBHs should be worth $40k and not $6k?
@EastonCollection said:
After reading these threads, I still think classic coins overall are undervalued.
For example, a mint state Capped bust Half dollar should be worth around $40k not $6k or so. I can go on but you get my thinking. Obviously there are great eye appealing coins that should be worth alot as well. Coins are valued based on supply and demand. Why should 30 year baseball cards be worth alot more than classic coins 100+ older.
If coins values are based on supply and demand and a CBH should be worth $40k and not $6k, what can change on the supply and demand sides for that to happen?
If you will permit me a digression: there is no one supply and demand, rather everything has a whole spectrum of supplies and demands. Let's take a 1923-D raw MS 65 Saint. It's safe to say that almost anyone would pay $20 for it, except some people would understand that they must take it to a bank and get a paper $20 because the gas station wouldn't believe it's real. So assume everyone (literally everyone) would buy this Saint once they were assured it was both "really" gold and legal tender for at least $15. At the other point, we have a member on another thread who has stated, perhaps hyperbolically, that he wouldn't sell this coin for $1B. But let's assume everyone (else) would. So there is effectively infinite demand at $15 and infinite supply just over $1B.
So now as you raise the price, demand drops off, and as you lower the price, the supply increases. It is not, perhaps, obvious until it is pointed out, but there are fewer people willing to buy this coin at $1000 than at $500, fewer at $1800 than at $1000, fewer at $3500 than at $1800, and fewer at $5000 than at $3500. By the same logic, there is more supply as you go up the scale. So eventually we arrive at a price where the demand equals the supply (one of these sold on eBay yesterday for $3550). So let's assume this $3550 is this equilibrium price. Any bids higher than $3550 will be met, and likewise any asks lower than that number. But, people not being stupid, anyone willing to pay $10,000 or accept $2000 will set his bid/ask very close to this $3550 price, with just a little difference to get a priority. Maybe offer $3575 so to be sure to get the next one whose owner is willing to sell for $3550 or less.
When I taught calculus we called the sum of what all sellers were willing to receive beneath the equilibrium price and what all buyers were willing to pay above it the "Social Gain."
So, to answer @Zoins question (the tl;dr), what can change is for the demand prices to increase. That is if people were to offer $8k, then $10k, etc., it would draw these CBHs into the market. We all (or almost all) have prices we would release our treasures at, even if they are many multiples of current "value", and I bet offering $12k, or twice guide, for these coins would draw out more than you'd believe.
Note that this supply/demand works for everything except where the law fixes prices. But that's a topic for another post.
Good info.
How can we apply this to @EastonCollection's comment that CBHs should be worth $40k and not $6k?
They are worth $6k because that is the equilibrium between supply and demand. If there were enough demand, they would be worth more. They are not. The $6k price is correct for the current market.
US Classic material definitely are considerably more expensive than world. So if one specializes in Mexico that could be an area where your not competing with big gun US Dealers. I have done well in that area but it takes buyers interested in it and who will pay the money. What I like about Mexican is the thrill of the chase for low pop quality slabbed material (2 digit or less) and then being in the drivers seat (pricing). There are other countries too that one could specialize in. One guy I know does Ireland, another Vatican. Like me they supplement it with Slabbed US mods or bullion coins. In this way a more balanced offense. One guy also has Seated (affordable) material $300 and under.
Its very true coin prices are based on supply & demand and that is why CBH are only worth $6k not $40k. Bottom line - we need to increase the number of coin collectors so demand increases. Coins are a fabulous hobby and we should have more collectors.
@EastonCollection said:
After reading these threads, I still think classic coins overall are undervalued.
For example, a mint state Capped bust Half dollar should be worth around $40k not $6k or so. I can go on but you get my thinking. Obviously there are great eye appealing coins that should be worth alot as well. Coins are valued based on supply and demand. Why should 30 year baseball cards be worth alot more than classic coins 100+ older.
If coins values are based on supply and demand and a CBH should be worth $40k and not $6k, what can change on the supply and demand sides for that to happen?
If you will permit me a digression: there is no one supply and demand, rather everything has a whole spectrum of supplies and demands. Let's take a 1923-D raw MS 65 Saint. It's safe to say that almost anyone would pay $20 for it, except some people would understand that they must take it to a bank and get a paper $20 because the gas station wouldn't believe it's real. So assume everyone (literally everyone) would buy this Saint once they were assured it was both "really" gold and legal tender for at least $15. At the other point, we have a member on another thread who has stated, perhaps hyperbolically, that he wouldn't sell this coin for $1B. But let's assume everyone (else) would. So there is effectively infinite demand at $15 and infinite supply just over $1B.
So now as you raise the price, demand drops off, and as you lower the price, the supply increases. It is not, perhaps, obvious until it is pointed out, but there are fewer people willing to buy this coin at $1000 than at $500, fewer at $1800 than at $1000, fewer at $3500 than at $1800, and fewer at $5000 than at $3500. By the same logic, there is more supply as you go up the scale. So eventually we arrive at a price where the demand equals the supply (one of these sold on eBay yesterday for $3550). So let's assume this $3550 is this equilibrium price. Any bids higher than $3550 will be met, and likewise any asks lower than that number. But, people not being stupid, anyone willing to pay $10,000 or accept $2000 will set his bid/ask very close to this $3550 price, with just a little difference to get a priority. Maybe offer $3575 so to be sure to get the next one whose owner is willing to sell for $3550 or less.
When I taught calculus we called the sum of what all sellers were willing to receive beneath the equilibrium price and what all buyers were willing to pay above it the "Social Gain."
So, to answer @Zoins question (the tl;dr), what can change is for the demand prices to increase. That is if people were to offer $8k, then $10k, etc., it would draw these CBHs into the market. We all (or almost all) have prices we would release our treasures at, even if they are many multiples of current "value", and I bet offering $12k, or twice guide, for these coins would draw out more than you'd believe.
Note that this supply/demand works for everything except where the law fixes prices. But that's a topic for another post.
Good info.
How can we apply this to @EastonCollection's comment that CBHs should be worth $40k and not $6k?
I guess I should have put a tl;dr more clearly. The way to do that is to buy up all the ones offered for $8 to $10k which will start the coins in the right direction.
So help me understand the market place - CBH in 64 are about $5k to $6k for nonbetter dates. I am using this as an example but these coins are quite rare from better looking coins. Having said that if there were significantly more collectors collecting them they would go higher. Same true with other classic coins. Barber halves in gem are too inexpensive as well. I can go on and on. Bottom line - we need to bring more collectors to this wonderful hobby.
@telephoto1 said:
Talking about overpriced and underpriced... some of these miniscule CPG varieties spring to mind as examples... fans of such things want to discover and "make" them, but not buy them. So they might be "overpriced" when the initial finds are made but could actually end up "underpriced" (in relationship to their actual rarity at least) due to a very thin retail market. In other words, not enough people chasing them to sustain any major value long term.
Sounds to me like your example is describing a "one way" market. From what I know, these varieties mostly gain significant value from being included in a widely bought reference (Red Book), registry sets, or coin albums. Many collectors use these to define "completion", whether they find the coin that interesting or not.
Otherwise, this type of rarity doesn't make these coins competitive with the alternatives. I am at least somewhat unusual in that I initially considered most coins within my budget when I resumed collecting in 1998, but even though most collectors don't do this, they still seem to do it within a narrow range.
@Cougar1978 said:
My low pop world coins did really at central states. Investors waking up to this.
People would be amazed to know how scarce many world coins are. This especially applies to world moderns that started in each country sometime between 1945 and 1965. In most countries very few coins have even been set aside in the last century except by Americans and Americans rarely want base metal coins. Low denomination world moderns are often distressingly common but high denomination coins are often scarce. Some countries were ignored as well.
Many of the coins have been melted in the last half century so even circulated examples aren't always common.
Mintage and availability are not as closely tied with world coins of the 20th century as with older coins especially with moderns.
Demand certainly appears to be growing even outside the BRIK countries. Much of the new demand is coming from the rest of the world. It's no longer mostly US collectors buying better world coins.
I'm seeing strong interest in gold and silver coins in no problem condition. If the markets tank or when there is substantial instability buyers always pull back. The high end market seems to be immune at this point.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and that holds true for art, cars, collectibles and more. If someone has the money and wants to buy they will always buy so are things over priced? No because there is a buyer for a seller in these markets no matter how bad inflation or the economy can be. people save and always will spend on collectibles perceived higher for the av joe under any condition and this is true throughout the history so let the markets flow how they always do
By any rational definition of the term "overpriced," coins that are selling at the market rate are not "overpriced." They may be surprisingly expensive, but if lots of people are buying at that price, it's silly to pretend that it's "overpriced."
@124Spider said:
By any rational definition of the term "overpriced," coins that are selling at the market rate are not "overpriced." They may be surprisingly expensive, but if lots of people are buying at that price, it's silly to pretend that it's "overpriced."
Your statement presupposes that market inefficiencies don’t exist. They do. That’s why crashes and market adjustments happen.
@Cougar1978 said:
My low pop world coins did really at central states. Investors waking up to this.
Unlike those US classics that are really struggling...
[End sarcasm]
Hey now…. classic commemoratives are basically just getting off of life support and transitioning to the step down unit.
They are about the only sector. Even proof sets have seen recent price increases. The US Market has been surging. Personally, I buy more world than US, but I wouldn't begin to say what Cougar is implying.
@124Spider said:
By any rational definition of the term "overpriced," coins that are selling at the market rate are not "overpriced." They may be surprisingly expensive, but if lots of people are buying at that price, it's silly to pretend that it's "overpriced."
Your statement presupposes that market inefficiencies don’t exist. They do. That’s why crashes and market adjustments happen.
So the whole US market is priced inefficiently but the smaller world markets are priced efficiently?
If the US market is inefficiently priced, couldn't it be undervalued?
How do you determine value of the market can't be trusted?
I think US classic coins are overpriced. Especially some of the keys like the 1909-S VDB. As the younger generation becomes more dominant, mind you, this is a generation that has crushing student loan debt and will not be able to afford homeownership in large numbers, I think that prices will go down for most classics as they wouldn’t be able to afford higher prices for classic coins even if they were genuinely interested in coins. I don’t even think you’ll have as many Steve Duckor’s in this hobby anymore. You’ll have the cyrpto millionaires who would likely be more interested in bullion based products if anything. I think long term, those born in the 1980s-now will see a collapse of the classic coin market for many issues.
@124Spider said:
By any rational definition of the term "overpriced," coins that are selling at the market rate are not "overpriced." They may be surprisingly expensive, but if lots of people are buying at that price, it's silly to pretend that it's "overpriced."
Your statement presupposes that market inefficiencies don’t exist. They do. That’s why crashes and market adjustments happen.
So the whole US market is priced inefficiently but the smaller world markets are priced efficiently?
If the US market is inefficiently priced, couldn't it be undervalued?
How do you determine value of the market can't be trusted?
It is a huge asset bubble (not unlike other collectibles and the stock market) with the prices being supported by cheap money and loose monetary policy by central banks. When the bubble pops and the economy tanks, I see no reason most coin prices and demand won’t fall. The vast majority of U.S. coins are not rare. There will almost always be another example.
There are many US Coins that are less expensive today than they were in the early 1980's and at points in the early 2000's. These were points in time but overall coins relative to inflation and other investment returns have not keep up. If you compare high quality (not necessarly high value) coins to high quality art or autos, we have bargans all over the place. Classic US Coins have historical value and limited quantities.
@124Spider said:
By any rational definition of the term "overpriced," coins that are selling at the market rate are not "overpriced." They may be surprisingly expensive, but if lots of people are buying at that price, it's silly to pretend that it's "overpriced."
Your statement presupposes that market inefficiencies don’t exist. They do. That’s why crashes and market adjustments happen.
So the whole US market is priced inefficiently but the smaller world markets are priced efficiently?
If the US market is inefficiently priced, couldn't it be undervalued?
How do you determine value of the market can't be trusted?
It is a huge asset bubble (not unlike other collectibles and the stock market) with the prices being supported by cheap money and loose monetary policy by central banks. When the bubble pops and the economy tanks, I see no reason most coin prices and demand won’t fall. The vast majority of U.S. coins are not rare. There will almost always be another example.
I hope I am wrong.
I agree with a lot of that, but it doesn't mean the current pricing is wrong or inefficient. Markets do move in both directions
On average, I think the market is about right, but most coins aren’t average. As I see it, “disappointing quality for the grade” is by far the most common reason when I determine that a coin is overvalued, and “absolute rarity” and “historical value” are usually the biggest considerations when I determine that a coin is undervalued.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I understand the yes or no polling objective but in this case there is too much variability.
Some coins are over promoted or priced strong, some are overlooked or undervalued based on availability or significance.
But this is not like the stock market or other assets. Classic coins are generally a long hold. Thete is no FOMO like the stock market. Collectors do not dump coins when liquidity dries up like other assets.
Bottom line demand is still strong and should remain so compared to other assets and collectibles.
@fathom said:
I understand the yes or no polling objective but in this case there is too much variability.
Some coins are over promoted or priced strong, some are overlooked or undervalued based on availability or significance.
But this is not like the stock market or other assets. Classic coins are generally a long hold. Thete is no FOMO like the stock market. Collectors do not dump coins when liquidity dries up like other assets.
Bottom line demand is still strong and should remain so compared to other assets and collectibles.
There is DEFINITELY FOMO in the coin market.
And many people do dump coins when liquidity dries up. I see them all the time coming in to sell their accumulations when they are cash poor.
@124Spider said:
By any rational definition of the term "overpriced," coins that are selling at the market rate are not "overpriced." They may be surprisingly expensive, but if lots of people are buying at that price, it's silly to pretend that it's "overpriced."
Your statement presupposes that market inefficiencies don’t exist. They do. That’s why crashes and market adjustments happen.
So the whole US market is priced inefficiently but the smaller world markets are priced efficiently?
If the US market is inefficiently priced, couldn't it be undervalued?
How do you determine value of the market can't be trusted?
I'm noticing the "smaller world markets" getting new interest.
I know I can't get anywhere near the world coins I have bought in the past few years or so for anything close to the prices I paid.
@124Spider said:
By any rational definition of the term "overpriced," coins that are selling at the market rate are not "overpriced." They may be surprisingly expensive, but if lots of people are buying at that price, it's silly to pretend that it's "overpriced."
Your statement presupposes that market inefficiencies don’t exist. They do. That’s why crashes and market adjustments happen.
So the whole US market is priced inefficiently but the smaller world markets are priced efficiently?
If the US market is inefficiently priced, couldn't it be undervalued?
How do you determine value of the market can't be trusted?
I'm noticing the "smaller world markets" getting new interest.
I know I can't get anywhere near the world coins I have bought in the past few years or so for anything close to the prices I paid.
>
Oh, I agree. But that's not really the point I was trying to make. I think most all markets, except for tiny niche markets, are fairly efficiently priced.
It seems to me that the "headliner" coins are being bought by some very wealthy buyers who may be collecting registry positions.
Seems beyond the scope of "coin COLLECTING."
???
@jmlanzaf said:
I think most all markets, except for tiny niche markets, are fairly efficiently priced.
>
When one is putting together a date and mintmark set there are inefficiencies. For example, the 1913-S Barber dime is one of the most overvalued Barber dimes. There are 29+1 in PCGS MS64 @ $2,350. Out of a 74 coin set there are 23 MS64 Barber dimes with smaller populations that can be bought with less money. Five of them for less than $1,000.
Comments
The more I have thought on the subject, the more I plan to focus on key dates
Better coins in stronger hands create a floor.
The remainder... meh
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
That's why I just like Type. You buy a nice example of the designs you like. A change in date or mm is meh to me. If the bottom drops out...meh. I still have my pretty precious. Lol
@jmlanzaf
I remember the rage on VAM's in the rare 14's for the 1878 8TF Vam's.
Just recently added one to my collection.
Lurking at Vamworld forum for many years...
I wonder how many are being held back?
How long will the old timers continue to hold?
Where will values go?
Are there enough 1878 8TF collectors to dive that deep?
There are probably a dozen more numbers I would enjoy, and problem free examples are not readily available.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
The Byrds had a great hit song called Turn, Turn, Turn. Supply and demand will be the arbiter of classic US coin costs. I don't know if they're overpriced? My intuition says maybe? But for now, I'm going to enjoy the numismatic ride. Realizing of course, there is a season Turn, Turn, Turn.
US coins are viewed as overpriced to non-US coinage based upon subjective assessments of the collectible attributes. That's the usual inference.
If anyone looks at what the same money can buy in both, it's evident that for the same budget, you can buy coins that collectors such as myself find a lot more interesting.
This doesn't matter to most US collectors. Most collectors tend to prefer coins from their home country or culture of origin. I don't see this just in the US. It's evident in foreign auctions where local coinage dominates or predominates. In South Africa which used to be my primary interest, they also overwhelmingly prefer their own coinage to all others.
The second big reason US collectors prefer US coinage is due to relative marketability. Most non-US coinage of similar value is a lot less liquid which often leads to unpredictable results at resale. Most collectors (from anywhere) usually don't like what they buy enough to lose a "noticeable" percentage of their cost if it's "meaningful" to them, so they won't buy coins like I do which they otherwise might if they believed they could get most of their money back.
A third reason with many non-US coins is lack of supply, either absolutely or across the quality distribution. With the vast majority of US coins, you can buy it now or at most within a few months. If you can't find the coin in the exact quality or appearance you want, you can buy a slightly lower one which most collectors view interchangeably. This doesn't apply with many non-US coins. Many collectors prefer to buy coins that are somewhat scarce (even if narrowly defined) but having (virtually) nothing to buy discourages most from even attempting it.
I also assume most collectors use discretionary income. This still doesn't mean they don't mind losing money by treating it predominantly or entirely as a consumption expense. This mindset is evident just on this forum. Many collectors have substantial "investments" in their collection and the resources to buy it usually just didn't drop into their bank account. It usually took some effort (working and saving) and most buyers would rather use the funds for something else versus on coins that either do or the buyer believes will lose "noticeable" (proportional) value.
It's a function of the buyer's attitude toward collecting, their financial circumstances, and their risk tolerance.
This describes my primary collecting interest. When I consider or attempt to buy one of these, I use the closest comparable, but it's not the same coin in the same grade or even the same coin in a lower grade. Usually, it's another date from the same denomination but even here, it's not always (or even usually) in the same (or near) quality because there has been no recent public sale and maybe no prior public sale at all.
Expensive baseball cards and US classic coins have nothing in common, other than both are mass produced objects and dominated by TPG and financialization.
Your post reminds me of a prior Coin Week article comparing the Brasher Doubloon to "Scream" (a painting) where the author claimed the coin was "undervalued" due to the history. The buyer of "Scream" (or other art) almost certainly doesn't even know the Brasher Doubloon exists and wouldn't care if they did know. It's irrelevant to them. No different for other coins or in assessing other collectible fields.
The only likely person who would ever pay $40K for a Capped Bust half is a US coin collector, not anyone else. They aren't going to pay $40K for one worth $6K now because this new price (in the current market or in currently valued money) would make it hopelessly uncompetitive with the alternatives (in other US classics) which are viewed by most US collectors as having superior collectible attributes.
All other similarly priced US classics aren't going to increase in roughly comparable proportion either, as this means current collectors would not be able to collect at the numismatic level to which they are accustomed. Most collectors don't have the resources to increase their budget 6X+ and wouldn't if they could. They also wouldn't do it to pay 6X+ for the same coins. Finally, under your scenario, they aren't going down that far their preference level to buy what they could then afford, as it wouldn't be sufficiently interesting to them.
And yet the demand is still healthy so those with money are spending!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Nobody needs to buy any coin, it's a discretionary purchase. If people are buying them, they're not overpriced.
Or just not as smart as the people who think they are overpriced. Lol.
While I allow for pricing to be erratic in thin markets, anyone who thinks the bulk of the coin market isn't properly priced (high or low) simply thinks they are smarter than the collective wisdom of a market that encompasses hundreds or thousands of sales. A 1913 Liberty nickel might not have well established value because they trade so rarely. But a bust half or coronet cent are traded so frequently that they have well established values.
You want to make money, don't question the market, understand it.
I think a lot of those people aren't saying they're smarter than the collective wisdom of a market, but instead, that their definition of "overpriced" is "more than I want to pay".
Perhaps, but they aren't really phrasing it that way.
Talking about overpriced and underpriced... some of these miniscule CPG varieties spring to mind as examples... fans of such things want to discover and "make" them, but not buy them. So they might be "overpriced" when the initial finds are made but could actually end up "underpriced" (in relationship to their actual rarity at least) due to a very thin retail market. In other words, not enough people chasing them to sustain any major value long term.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
If you will permit me a digression: there is no one supply and demand, rather everything has a whole spectrum of supplies and demands. Let's take a 1923-D raw MS 65 Saint. It's safe to say that almost anyone would pay $20 for it, except some people would understand that they must take it to a bank and get a paper $20 because the gas station wouldn't believe it's real. So assume everyone (literally everyone) would buy this Saint once they were assured it was both "really" gold and legal tender for at least $15. At the other point, we have a member on another thread who has stated, perhaps hyperbolically, that he wouldn't sell this coin for $1B. But let's assume everyone (else) would. So there is effectively infinite demand at $15 and infinite supply just over $1B.
So now as you raise the price, demand drops off, and as you lower the price, the supply increases. It is not, perhaps, obvious until it is pointed out, but there are fewer people willing to buy this coin at $1000 than at $500, fewer at $1800 than at $1000, fewer at $3500 than at $1800, and fewer at $5000 than at $3500. By the same logic, there is more supply as you go up the scale. So eventually we arrive at a price where the demand equals the supply (one of these sold on eBay yesterday for $3550). So let's assume this $3550 is this equilibrium price. Any bids higher than $3550 will be met, and likewise any asks lower than that number. But, people not being stupid, anyone willing to pay $10,000 or accept $2000 will set his bid/ask very close to this $3550 price, with just a little difference to get a priority. Maybe offer $3575 so to be sure to get the next one whose owner is willing to sell for $3550 or less.
When I taught calculus we called the sum of what all sellers were willing to receive beneath the equilibrium price and what all buyers were willing to pay above it the "Social Gain."
So, to answer @Zoins question (the tl;dr), what can change is for the demand prices to increase. That is if people were to offer $8k, then $10k, etc., it would draw these CBHs into the market. We all (or almost all) have prices we would release our treasures at, even if they are many multiples of current "value", and I bet offering $12k, or twice guide, for these coins would draw out more than you'd believe.
Note that this supply/demand works for everything except where the law fixes prices. But that's a topic for another post.
Well described. The only slight correction is that there cannot be a point of "infinite supply" with a finite commodity. Even at $1 trillion, there are only as many coins as exist. You can't simply manufacture more.
Good info.
How can we apply this to @EastonCollection's comment that CBHs should be worth $40k and not $6k?
They are worth $6k because that is the equilibrium between supply and demand. If there were enough demand, they would be worth more. They are not. The $6k price is correct for the current market.
I think all my coins SHOULD be worth more when they are sold. Because I said so.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
US Classic material definitely are considerably more expensive than world. So if one specializes in Mexico that could be an area where your not competing with big gun US Dealers. I have done well in that area but it takes buyers interested in it and who will pay the money. What I like about Mexican is the thrill of the chase for low pop quality slabbed material (2 digit or less) and then being in the drivers seat (pricing). There are other countries too that one could specialize in. One guy I know does Ireland, another Vatican. Like me they supplement it with Slabbed US mods or bullion coins. In this way a more balanced offense. One guy also has Seated (affordable) material $300 and under.
Yes [overpriced] when I buy them
No, when I sell them
BHNC #203
No, but I wish they were cheaper!
Check out my coin blog at thecoinmaven.wordpress.com
Its very true coin prices are based on supply & demand and that is why CBH are only worth $6k not $40k. Bottom line - we need to increase the number of coin collectors so demand increases. Coins are a fabulous hobby and we should have more collectors.
I guess I should have put a tl;dr more clearly. The way to do that is to buy up all the ones offered for $8 to $10k which will start the coins in the right direction.
So help me understand the market place - CBH in 64 are about $5k to $6k for nonbetter dates. I am using this as an example but these coins are quite rare from better looking coins. Having said that if there were significantly more collectors collecting them they would go higher. Same true with other classic coins. Barber halves in gem are too inexpensive as well. I can go on and on. Bottom line - we need to bring more collectors to this wonderful hobby.
Sounds to me like your example is describing a "one way" market. From what I know, these varieties mostly gain significant value from being included in a widely bought reference (Red Book), registry sets, or coin albums. Many collectors use these to define "completion", whether they find the coin that interesting or not.
Otherwise, this type of rarity doesn't make these coins competitive with the alternatives. I am at least somewhat unusual in that I initially considered most coins within my budget when I resumed collecting in 1998, but even though most collectors don't do this, they still seem to do it within a narrow range.
My low pop world coins did really at central states. Investors waking up to this.
People would be amazed to know how scarce many world coins are. This especially applies to world moderns that started in each country sometime between 1945 and 1965. In most countries very few coins have even been set aside in the last century except by Americans and Americans rarely want base metal coins. Low denomination world moderns are often distressingly common but high denomination coins are often scarce. Some countries were ignored as well.
Many of the coins have been melted in the last half century so even circulated examples aren't always common.
Mintage and availability are not as closely tied with world coins of the 20th century as with older coins especially with moderns.
Demand certainly appears to be growing even outside the BRIK countries. Much of the new demand is coming from the rest of the world. It's no longer mostly US collectors buying better world coins.
For all but the rarest and/or most unusual/esoteric, yes.
Unlike those US classics that are really struggling...
[End sarcasm]
I'm seeing strong interest in gold and silver coins in no problem condition. If the markets tank or when there is substantial instability buyers always pull back. The high end market seems to be immune at this point.
Hey now…. classic commemoratives are basically just getting off of life support and transitioning to the step down unit.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and that holds true for art, cars, collectibles and more. If someone has the money and wants to buy they will always buy so are things over priced? No because there is a buyer for a seller in these markets no matter how bad inflation or the economy can be. people save and always will spend on collectibles perceived higher for the av joe under any condition and this is true throughout the history so let the markets flow how they always do
By any rational definition of the term "overpriced," coins that are selling at the market rate are not "overpriced." They may be surprisingly expensive, but if lots of people are buying at that price, it's silly to pretend that it's "overpriced."
Changed my answer to Maybe?
Since November a fair amount of my inventory has been plundered.
Your statement presupposes that market inefficiencies don’t exist. They do. That’s why crashes and market adjustments happen.
They are about the only sector. Even proof sets have seen recent price increases. The US Market has been surging. Personally, I buy more world than US, but I wouldn't begin to say what Cougar is implying.
So the whole US market is priced inefficiently but the smaller world markets are priced efficiently?
If the US market is inefficiently priced, couldn't it be undervalued?
How do you determine value of the market can't be trusted?
I think US classic coins are overpriced. Especially some of the keys like the 1909-S VDB. As the younger generation becomes more dominant, mind you, this is a generation that has crushing student loan debt and will not be able to afford homeownership in large numbers, I think that prices will go down for most classics as they wouldn’t be able to afford higher prices for classic coins even if they were genuinely interested in coins. I don’t even think you’ll have as many Steve Duckor’s in this hobby anymore. You’ll have the cyrpto millionaires who would likely be more interested in bullion based products if anything. I think long term, those born in the 1980s-now will see a collapse of the classic coin market for many issues.
I didn't vote, because any I can't afford are overpriced. lol
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
It is a huge asset bubble (not unlike other collectibles and the stock market) with the prices being supported by cheap money and loose monetary policy by central banks. When the bubble pops and the economy tanks, I see no reason most coin prices and demand won’t fall. The vast majority of U.S. coins are not rare. There will almost always be another example.
I hope I am wrong.
There are many US Coins that are less expensive today than they were in the early 1980's and at points in the early 2000's. These were points in time but overall coins relative to inflation and other investment returns have not keep up. If you compare high quality (not necessarly high value) coins to high quality art or autos, we have bargans all over the place. Classic US Coins have historical value and limited quantities.
I agree with a lot of that, but it doesn't mean the current pricing is wrong or inefficient. Markets do move in both directions
On average, I think the market is about right, but most coins aren’t average. As I see it, “disappointing quality for the grade” is by far the most common reason when I determine that a coin is overvalued, and “absolute rarity” and “historical value” are usually the biggest considerations when I determine that a coin is undervalued.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I understand the yes or no polling objective but in this case there is too much variability.
Some coins are over promoted or priced strong, some are overlooked or undervalued based on availability or significance.
But this is not like the stock market or other assets. Classic coins are generally a long hold. Thete is no FOMO like the stock market. Collectors do not dump coins when liquidity dries up like other assets.
Bottom line demand is still strong and should remain so compared to other assets and collectibles.
There is DEFINITELY FOMO in the coin market.
And many people do dump coins when liquidity dries up. I see them all the time coming in to sell their accumulations when they are cash poor.
I'm noticing the "smaller world markets" getting new interest.
I know I can't get anywhere near the world coins I have bought in the past few years or so for anything close to the prices I paid.
(avatar)
>
Oh, I agree. But that's not really the point I was trying to make. I think most all markets, except for tiny niche markets, are fairly efficiently priced.
It seems to me that the "headliner" coins are being bought by some very wealthy buyers who may be collecting registry positions.
Seems beyond the scope of "coin COLLECTING."
???
>
When one is putting together a date and mintmark set there are inefficiencies. For example, the 1913-S Barber dime is one of the most overvalued Barber dimes. There are 29+1 in PCGS MS64 @ $2,350. Out of a 74 coin set there are 23 MS64 Barber dimes with smaller populations that can be bought with less money. Five of them for less than $1,000.