The Decline of the Classic US Commemorative
gscoins
Posts: 326 ✭✭✭
I have read over the past several years a number of posts commenting about price declines for the 1892-1954 silver commemoratives. But I hadn't realized just how large the values had gone down. I have two Red Books, one from 1992 I had for many years and one from 2020 I just bought at a library book sale. On a lark, I decided to compare MS 65 pricing for the 50 types and was amazed at how much they had dropped during that 28 year period. Overall, if you purchased the 50 coins in 1992, you would have lost 68% of your money by 2020, much more if you factor in inflation ($100 in 1992 = $193 in 2020). Not a single coin went up. The two Civil War memorials were the best: the Gettyburg going from $1,100 to $775 and the Antietam from $725 to $600 (the smallest reduction of all 50). Your $3800 investment in an MS 65 Columbian (either year) would have valued at $310 in 2020, a 92% loss! Only 13 of the 50 types were able to hold on to even 50% of their worth over that period.
I know the pricing in the Red Book hasn't always been indicative of actual retail, and perhaps the 2020 Redbook is closer to real world pricing (I am pretty much a non-US collector, so am not as knowledgeable here as many of you). But these data make me wonder if there are some bargains to be had? Or, is it going to get worse? Heritage's forthcoming sale may tell us something.
I have attached the chart I created, for what it is worth...
Comments
Anthony Swiatek has written several books on the classic commems. He has repeatedly warned that they generally have little investment potential. The ones that have done the best (from a financial viewpoint) are likely the round and octagonal Pan-Pac gold commems.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Good time to sell Morgans and buy classics. Personally I am saving for a Hawaiian.
Hawaiian commems are beautiful coins. Some years ago, I seriously thought about buying a nice one, until I picked up a catalog for an upcoming auction and saw something like 50 of them for sale.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
This is the silver & gold commemorative index from PCGS.com. The declines may have looked worse if you had a Red Book from 1990 that captured that peak.
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
These coins were heavily promoted in the late 1980s. The promoters had lines like, "Look at the low mintages." What they didn't tell you about were the high survival rates, for some pieces, even in MS-65 or 66.
The other problem is the same one that existed at the time that they were issued. Some these coins commemorate nothing but the greed of the people who got to issue them. Some coins, like the Oregon Trail, are beautiful, but they were issued for years and years for no reason other than greed. The Cincinnati commemorated nothing but greed. Some pieces like the Hudson and New Rochelle should have been town medals, not Federally issued commemorative coins.
All of this adds up to lack of collector interest and falling prices.
I have a complete type set and lost a lot money on them. The only pieces that have gone up have been my two Pan-Pac $50 gold coins which are often bought as "trophy coins" for wealthy collectors. They are neat and the net mintages are low, but the prices are also too high for most collectors.
My advice is buy them only if you like them. There are some wonderful books about them that will add to your interest. But if you think that they are "investment material," think again.
I have only been buying classic commems for the past couple of years so I, for one, am happy.
What does that index really mean? PCGS slabs did not exist in 1970, did they? With the advent of population reports, people could see how many coins (approximately) existed in various grades--this has colored people's views of most 20th-century U. S. coinage, so prices for the commems haven't held up in general. Normalize for the effect of yearly inflation, and things will look worse.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Classic commem collectors get no respect, no respect at all. I mean, when I went to a coin show and asked where the classic commems were, the dealer pointed and said go through that door. So I did...it was to the parking lot! I tell ya, it ain’t easy being a classic commem collector!
USAF (Ret) The purpose of Bourbon is to make you feel like you should feel WITHOUT Bourbon. Remembering RickO, a brother in arms.
A 1992 MS65 is not the same as a 2020 MS65, making apples to apples price comparisons tough. Standards changed the most at the upper end of the scale, MS 66 and higher.
Further complicating things, grading on some commems changed more than others. For example, the silver Sequim has really loosened in 65 and higher.
Gettysburg and Antietam have always been among the easiest commems to sell.
Crazily enough in 1992 I was single, decent income and buying high value coins like early large cents, SL dollars etc. I had NO interests at all in classic commemoratives. Now they are cheap and there really is some nice stuff to find out there if you look for MS-67+ examples. Many of the commems still have no interests to me, but I like the Texas, the Oregon Trail and some of the other magnificently designed pieces.
Sorry but the Cincinnati and Cleveland type will not pique my curiosity.
I was interested in them back in 2018 & I did a detailed study on the decline in value from the peak (1989) to 2018. Have a look, I think you'll find it interesting.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1004212/classic-silver-commems-a-detailed-if-imperfect-look-at-the-decline-in-values/p1
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me. . . . . . .
... for the time being.
I only have a few of the classic commems-a Pilgrim, a couple of San Diegos and this one-
Beware coins that don’t suffer attrition.
When I read through this forum just about every coin has someone telling you how terrible they are for one reason or another. Interestingly there’s usually an alternative view to argue how wrong the first post was.
In the last couple years a number of classic commemoratives have become harder (and more expensive) to find. The gold classic commemorative dollars and quarter eagles have been tough to find. I buy what I like and enjoy it. I try to look for bargains and once in a while find some. Modern commemoratives are another discussion- even though I like some and have purchased they have turned out to be oinkers like the Apollo coins, NBA, etc. I still like em but it will after I’m pushing daisies before there’s any hope of $$ appreciation.
Bowers and Ruddy's Bank of Hawaii hoard dispersal?? More than 50 for sure. More than a few years ago. (ouch!)
CJ,
That sounds about right, and probably 10-15 years ago.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Bank of Hawaii auction was in the ancient days of January 1986 and had 137 pieces, all new to the market.
Can't recall what auction more recently might have had a large quantity. Wonder if they were new to the market or had been accumulated from the market.
https://archive.org/details/1928hawaiiancomm1986bowe/page/n1/mode/2up
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
1986! That was the year I finished grad school and got my first real job.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
If you look ta the chart and think about the pump and dump, are Classic Commems still above their pre-pump prices? To me, it seems reasonable to think so, in which case, they are still up!
Of course, i don't think these charts are that useful without taking into account rising populations. Instead of looking ata just grades, it would be informative to look at whatever grade was a "pop 10" or "pop 100" coin per year.
The only ones that were bid up crazy were ones that had monster toning
Crazy bids !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Good to know.
If it's not the coins, what do you think is causing the price depression? Bill's post seems to indicate he believes it is partially due to the coins.
I think many of them can go lower. If you just look at supply and demand, there seems to be quite a bit of supply for many issues.
You mean like- actually collecting coins because you like them, and not because you expect to get rich from owning them? Heretic!
If you think comm collecting is a Rodney Dangerfield endeavor I also collect Stamps!😂🙀great prices. Buying sheets for under cost
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
Yes, but at least part of this “loss” is attributable to gradeflation. Many of those old MS65 coins are in 66, 66+, and 67 holders now.
Agree. This must be taken into account and from this perspective, many may have gone up in price.
I know- right? I guess by now, I shouldn't be surprised by the number of people who don't appear to be really happy with their coins until they can sell them for a profit. A weekend one day lift ticket at Sun Valley is $175. The day after, it's worth zilch and people still line up to buy them. But let someone pay $175 for a coin and only get offered $100 for it after he's had the pleasure of ownership for 5-10 years and about all you hear is how collectors get ripped off in the hobby.
Go figure.
Thank you for that research! I will always enjoy the series as a collector. Some designs are pretty bad and some events were really not worth commemorating but it still really is a fun set. Premiums on MS66 on some of the coins are barely above 65 prices.
The only thing I’ve noticed lately it’s just how hard it is to find a solid MS65 or above pan pac half dollar. I used to do the search on eBay and bring up a dozen examples but not anymore.
Always being available is actually the reason I don't buy many of them. If they are always available, why buy one now when I can use my funds to buy something that isn't always available.
Here's one of mine which I paid quite a bit for. These may be going up
Very nice! I wouldn't mind owning this one!
For more beautiful commemoratives, see this thread:
Classic Commemorative Appreciation Thread
One reason I buy fewer classic silver half dollar commems is competition from their larger cousins, modern silver dollar commems.
"Virtually every U.S. circulating coin ever issued" often don't sell for much, a lot for less than classic commems!
This brings up an interesting up. In some respects, I think classic commems are more like exonumia than coins. They are coins, but they may be viewed more as exonumia, akin to NCLT.
When I was a little kid at age 8 or 9 years old, I collected Lincoln Cents like my other 3 cousins. I couldn't afford to collect anything else since I had no allowance and the only money I had was from finding and cashing-in soda bottles I found. I used to look at the back of dad's Redbook and noticed the neat and unusual coins at the back of the book. I also notice how expensive they were and I would never have enough money to collect the set. Well, things changed when I graduated from pharmacy school in 1982. I was able to save a few bucks and when the time was right in 1996 I was ready to start a collection of Classic Silver Commemoratives. I bought most of the coins slabbed in PCGS and NGC holders. I had completed the 50 coin type set by 1998 and was submitted in the 1999 PCGS SET REGISTRY. Back then, PCGS would cross-over, grade, encapsulate, and pedigree complete or near completes sets for free to add to the Registry. I sent in all 50 coins, all the NGC crossed (10-12 coins), some of the PCGS coins upgraded, and the collection was pedigreed "The Overland Trail Collection". It ranked a lofty 2nd back then and it still resides in the Registry ranked around 29 or 30. I built the set because I liked the beauty and history of the coins, not for investment purposes. I will give it to one of my relatives who will appreciated it.
Overland Trail Collection Showcase
Dahlonega Type Set-2008 PCGS Best Exhibited Set
Sure, picking 1992 to start is cherry-picking the data (different meaning for cherry-picking than is often used in our hobby). What REALLY matters is where do prices go from here going forward? I’m not saying prices are going to be going up, but I’ll bet the next 28 years will not see that same 68% drop! (I’m 70, so I don’t think I’ll be here to pay off any takers of that bet, lol).
Three years ago I looked at that same data, and I decided this was a great opportunity to put together a beautiful, interesting, FUN, and highly educational 50 coin Classic Silver Commem Type Set. Not for price appreciation, but for the factors listed in the prior sentence. I saw the downside risk as being minimized, even if the upside potential is not great. Hey, we should all be having fun with our wonderful hobby, and this set has provided me fun and pleasure. Just last week my Missouri MS65 got upgraded via Reconsideration with a plus. I’m a “CAC” guy, and in this series there’s only a very tiny premium, in general, for coins with CAC’s. As such, in my set 100% of the coins have a CAC. The PCGS Registry software temporarily removes the coins while near the end of the Reconsideration process, but in another couple of days or so, it will resume its #14 position. By the way, 33 of my 50 coins have a “+”.
Take a look at the prices of common Morgan dollars over the past 3 or 4 years or so. Sure, there are exceptions, but the common dates of this much more popular series looks very similar over that 3 to 4 year period of time to common Classic Silver commems. Does that mean they shouldn’t be collected?
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
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I agree and maybe, just maybe the so called half dollars will get some attention.
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CoinsAreFun Toned Silver Eagle Proof Album
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Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
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More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC FOR SALE
Totally agree with this. All the data on commem populations and pricing trends I've seen suggests they are a terrible investment. And yet, I recently bought my first commem, and even paid a major premium over the price guide for an eye-appealing example, knowing full well that I would be underwater on the coin forever.
Why? It was a Bay Bridge. I've always loved the design. It has personal significance - I grew up in the Bay Area, have many memories of riding over the Bay Bridge as a kid, and the Ferry Building (the most prominent building in the design) is one of my favorite landmarks in San Francisco. I usually buy a coin hoping it's not a stupid investment. This was the first time I bought one that is almost guaranteed to be.
I’m 72 coins into my Dansco UNC silver commem dollar set. It’s been fun to build with some not going for more than bullion. Meanwhile the mintages get lower and lower.
Cut your future losses. Buy inexpensive circulated classic commemoratives.
That sounds like a nice collection. I like a lot of the designs.
And I agree on cost. As little as some think classic commems cost, modern commems are larger, have more silver, and cost less.
I put together a group of commemoratives from the states I have lived in.... Nothing special, except to me. Cheers, RickO