This doesn't tell anyone anything. It's not a prediction.
Well, I don't have any opinion on any future price of $5 to $10 for these coins because it's not financially meaningful either. And no, it isn't because I am rich. It's that almost no one is financially motivated by what you are describing. It's a recreational expense equivalent to a movie ticket.
What is the gemmiest key date mint set worth in pristine condition if chBU moderns are worth 5 to 10 dollars in BU?
"Financially meaningful" is dependent on things like perspective and stake. If you want to sell such coins you must first buy them. If you want to buy them it's a good idea to understand the market first.
This doesn't tell anyone anything. It's not a prediction.
Well, I don't have any opinion on any future price of $5 to $10 for these coins because it's not financially meaningful either. And no, it isn't because I am rich. It's that almost no one is financially motivated by what you are describing. It's a recreational expense equivalent to a movie ticket.
What is the gemmiest key date mint set worth in pristine condition if chBU moderns are worth 5 to 10 dollars in BU?
I don't know what the "gemmiest" key date will be worth in the future but I can anticipate it's going to be worth a (low) fraction of what you have claimed in the past and are implying now.
If you are referring to condition census coins, I have already conceded multiple increases are more likely, but only where the counts remain very low.
"Financially meaningful" is dependent on things like perspective and stake. If you want to sell such coins you must first buy them. If you want to buy them it's a good idea to understand the market first.
Not for the markets you have used here. I just told you that $5 to $10 is like buying a movie ticket> That's not financially meaningful.
If you are now inferring or claiming that someone is going to make it "financially meaningful" based upon volume, it's possible for a very low number of collectors. Certainly not because the coins are going to appreciate anywhere close to your claims for world "moderns".
@cladking said:
I never said they are different or the same except most baby boomers hate clad...
You keep saying that, but the only person I can remember saying (using that specific word) that they hated clads is you.
Not being interested in them doesn't mean people hate them.
Yes, the baby boomers "hated" clad so much, that's why they bought millions of Mint and proof sets for decades, each and every year.
You want to know his definition of "hate"?
Failing to agree with him on the the coin's relative merits and how much the coins should be worth. Until the general consensus agrees with his views, collectors will continue to "hate" it.
I must be at the top of the "Most Wanted" list, even though (gasp!) I did buy a few US moderns after I resumed collecting in 1998, from the US Mint.
This doesn't tell anyone anything. It's not a prediction.
Well, I don't have any opinion on any future price of $5 to $10 for these coins because it's not financially meaningful either. And no, it isn't because I am rich. It's that almost no one is financially motivated by what you are describing. It's a recreational expense equivalent to a movie ticket.
What is the gemmiest key date mint set worth in pristine condition if chBU moderns are worth 5 to 10 dollars in BU?
I don't know what the "gemmiest" key date will be worth in the future but I can anticipate it's going to be worth a (low) fraction of what you have claimed in the past and are implying now.
If you are referring to condition census coins, I have already conceded multiple increases are more likely, but only where the counts remain very low.
"Financially meaningful" is dependent on things like perspective and stake. If you want to sell such coins you must first buy them. If you want to buy them it's a good idea to understand the market first.
Not for the markets you have used here. I just told you that $5 to $10 is like buying a movie ticket> That's not financially meaningful.
If you are now inferring or claiming that someone is going to make it "financially meaningful" based upon volume, it's possible for a very low number of collectors. Certainly not because the coins are going to appreciate anywhere close to your claims for world "moderns".
He seems to be implying that EACH coin in the gemmiest mint set is worth $5 to $10 which makes a 2014 Mint Set worth a couple hundred bucks.
He ping pongs around these price ranges.... it's $500... no it's a couple bucks... $5 to$10... soon, back to $500.
As for hate, I don't like silver dimes better than clad. I don't collect either. I don't like silver Washington quarters better than clad. I don't collect either. I do like Buffalo nickels but not Jefferson... and they are both made of nickel.
I think the composition issue is overstated. People collected state quarters and ATBs but that didn't make them go get the 1965 to 1998 clad quarters. Meanwhile people like Kennedy halves best of all and there are very few silver years.
I think the problem is design exhaustion not metal composition. That is not going to change with time. For most people, they are monotonous boring series that they don't feel like filling 3 albums with, so they stop at one.
@jmlanzaf said:
I think the problem is design exhaustion not metal composition. That is not going to change with time. For most people, they are monotonous boring series that they don't feel like filling 3 albums with, so they stop at one.
I haven't bought a US coin for my collection in maybe 20 years. There's a whole wide world out there, lots of interesting stuff once you realize it exists. Sure, early US is like that, too, but compared to world coins, it's horribly overpriced. Dead presidents (year after year after year) are not even on my radar as far as an item to collect anymore, clad or silver.
I think the composition issue is overstated. People collected state quarters and ATBs but that didn't make them go get the 1965 to 1998 clad quarters. Meanwhile people like Kennedy halves best of all and there are very few silver years.
I think the problem is design exhaustion not metal composition. That is not going to change with time. For most people, they are monotonous boring series that they don't feel like filling 3 albums with, so they stop at one.
I believe the metal composition matters at the lowest price points but it's not the primary or even a noticeable factor otherwise.
Earlier, I mentioned the gap between silver and clad Washington quarters. Most US collectors presumably consider the silver "popular" and it is by the size of the collector base. It's still a series I consider to have one of the lowest preferences among classics, like slightly higher or lower than the Franklin half.
If there are 50,000 to 100,000 collecting the silver series in some format, I'd estimate maybe as many as 500 have as much in it as I do in my primary collection and this might be generous. Per the Heritage data, clad might have between one and two dozen.
I expect the clad to marginally close the gap with the silver price wise, outside of a big up in spot price. There may be noticeably more spending hundreds on a complete set. I disagree there will be any "surge" spending thousands or more for the reason you gave. It isn't competitive versus the alternatives at "noticeably" higher prices and I don't believe there is going to be any "surge" in lower priced US coinage generally either.
I infer the silver has lost "share of wallet" to NCLT since around 2006 when it seems to have peaked during the SQ series. I see no catalyst where this series will perform better than US coins generally (maybe worse), other than due to silver spot. I expect peak popularity for this series during my lifetime to have come and gone.
CK. I received randomly the following fresh looking quality (I get to deduct 10% for inferior quality sets and we deducted $0 on these sets) Ike $1 mint sets this week (not screened for anything yet). I received other dated mint sets as well, but just talking about the Ike $1 related sets. That’s 140 Unc. Ikes for these Mint Set dates. On top of that, I received 1,000 “Circ./Unc. Ike Bag” which Lauren is taking a look at tonight for quality assessment. So, 1,140 new Ikes to deal with just this week (not counting all the proof coins and 1971-76 silver BU Ikes). I received a run of 1973 Mint sets last week by the way.
Note- my focus is really proof Ikes. I produce more 11 pc “69” proof Ike sets at PCGS than just about anyone out there. I generally get in hundreds of fresh proof Ike sets weekly. I haven’t done much with MS Ikes for years, but just started to again recently including the “blue” 71-74 silvers and “red” 1976, which are all not included here.
*** So…. Have they really “disappeared”? Are the days of “raw moderns” over? ***
Random MS Ikes Received W/E 06/27:
BU/Ch. BU In Mint Sets:
1974 - 2 x 2
1975 - 13 x 2
1976 - 21 x 2
1977 - 13 x 2
1978 - 21 x 2
Total - 140 coins.
$1,000 Bag of Circs/BU - 1,000 coins
Total Ikes in for week - 1,140 (not counting the hundreds of proof Ikes, or MS silver 1971-76 Ikes received).
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I give up. After 10,000 words, we've finally narrowed the prediction down to Ch Bu coins costing a couple bucks. Inflation alone will get them there eventually. And if they only get to a couple bucks it is because there is no demand or there is significant supply or both. In that case, how did we reach the end of raw collections? At a couple bucks per coin, all the collections will stay raw and continue to move around between collectors.
10,000 words… that was 200 posts ago! 😂
Meanwhile, as we wait to see if the clad does reach that $2 prediction, a 1946 Walker just sold for about $150,000.00! 😧
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I’m so confused and now my brain hurts. But will add; unless I’m just living in a bubble, most new so/called collectors are driven by profits not aesthetics and could careless what the coin was made of, when it was made, and who made it.
At least the name “Bitcoin” refers to a coin which, in turn will bring more of both types to the hobby.
He seems to be implying that EACH coin in the gemmiest mint set is worth $5 to $10 which makes a 2014 Mint Set worth a couple hundred bucks.
He ping pongs around these price ranges.... it's $500... no it's a couple bucks... $5 to$10... soon, back to $500.
I can't believe I even have to ask this. What's a chBU Morgan dollar worth? Most people know that it's in the $35 range and you'll mostly get 1921's rather than a fistful of 1893-S's. The value of Morgan dollars vary a lot. They vary by date, mint mark, and condition. Why would anyone expect any modern coin to be different? Most people think they are equally "junk" and if you've seen one them you've seen them all but as I am continually trying to point out this is not the case.
If there were a supply and a wholesaler and you ordered a mixture of chBU clad quarters from a wholesaler for two dollar apiece then you'd get mostly '72-D's. You could check every roll and never find an '83-P.
My question was, if a chBU eagle reverse clad quarter wholesales at $2 then what is an entire set of the scarcest Gems worth in pristine condition. Keep in mind that by the time chBU's hit $2 that the market will have evolved and matured. There may not even be a single Gem 1969 set left by then. I had to cut both of mine up to save the coins. I looked at thousands of sets to find mine. And I never saw anyone else checking sets.
So there's your statistic; known supply is at zero and potential demand is in the tens of thousands.
Disclaimer; I'm only half way through selling my coins and there could possibly still be a gemmy and pristine '69 set in other safety deposit boxes.
@CoinscratchFever said:
I’m so confused and now my brain hurts. But will add; unless I’m just living in a bubble, most new so/called collectors are driven by profits not aesthetics and could careless what the coin was made of, when it was made, and who made it.
"Profit motive" is hardly an unusual motivation for coin collectors in any generation. This is largely what drives the piling on any hot new coin collectible. In the early '70's everyone wanted silver art bars. It started as a cheap means of acquiring attractive silver but then the low mintage and early bars became collectible in their own right and commanded massive premiums. In the mid-'80 you could pick up the scarcities that had been worth hundreds of dollars for $5. Today silver is much higher and some of the old scarce bars are getting a little premium again.
It is human nature to do what everyone else is doing but it is usually beneficial not to and this is true nowhere moreso than in investment decisions and especially in coins that are purchased for "investment" or speculation. It is unwise to speculate or "invest" in coins but this won't stop people. It is very unwise to invest in anything you don't understand and can't predict. Now days this seems to encompass everything much more than it did even 40 years ago.
@Cladking Yes, I realize profit has always been a main factor. But when you here all the chatter about clad and how older collectors don't like it ~ as much. It seems profit tips the scales vs. beauty.
Any who, after enough discussion here, my take away is to hunt more far and wide for these mint packs. And I'm not talking about the ones the Bay that are sealed and have never been opened because more than likely someone on this thread has already been there.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Yes, I realize profit has always been a main factor. But when you here all the chatter about clad and how older collectors don't like it ~ as much. It seems profit tips the scales vs. beauty.
At this time I doubt there are too many older collectors into any clad for the profit motive alone. Even I who accumulated these coins over decades partly for profit and partly to preserve coins for future generations find the coins attractive, historical, and of great numismatic (and statistical) interest. I certainly can understand why so many consider them the US Mint's concept of chuckee cheese tokens. To each his own.
Most of the new demand for mint sets and moderns is coming from young people and I expect the growth in demand to continue. Many years ago I believe older collectors would get into these coins and find there weren't so many as believed but this just never happened. It was probably unwise to expect many people to change their collective and not collective minds. But, I suppose, that if they increased sharply in value as seems to be at hand at least a few will change their minds and it doesn't really matter since coin dealers have no choice but to stock all popular coins. The local coin shop can't fail to stock mint sets and albums for clad quarters if there are two or three people walking in every day requesting them. As I have said just priming the pump for these markets will chew up a lot of the current supply.
Any who, after enough discussion here, my take away is to hunt more far and wide for these mint packs. And I'm not talking about the ones the Bay that are sealed and have never been opened because more than likely someone on this thread has already been there.
Most coin shops still have 20 or 30 on hand and they are often uncherried. Now days there are a lot more sets walking out the door than being shipped. In the old days dealers would sell 20 sets a year to customers and ship 1000. Of course with the sharply increased pricing it will be interesting to see if more sets come in and what dealers do with stock on hand. I expect few more sets to come in and most of their stock to be shipped. Wholesalers will get a big bulge in inventories but for now the sets will still be cut up for half dollars and dollars.
He seems to be implying that EACH coin in the gemmiest mint set is worth $5 to $10 which makes a 2014 Mint Set worth a couple hundred bucks.
He ping pongs around these price ranges.... it's $500... no it's a couple bucks... $5 to$10... soon, back to $500.
I can't believe I even have to ask this. What's a chBU Morgan dollar worth? Most people know that it's in the $35 range and you'll mostly get 1921's rather than a fistful of 1895's. The value of Morgan dollars vary a lot. They vary by date, min mark, and condition. Why would anyone expect any modern coin to be different? Most people think they are equally "junk" and if you've seen one them you've seen them all but as I am continually trying to point out this is not the case.
If there were a supply and a wholesaler and you ordered a mixture of chBU clad quarters from a wholesaler you'd get mostly '72-D's. You could check every roll and never find an '83-P.
My question was, if a chBU eagle reverse clad quarter wholesales at $2 then what is an entire set of the scarcest Gems worth in pristine condition. Keep in mind that by the time chBU's hit $2 that the market will have evolved and matured. There may not even be a single Gem 1969 set left by then. I had to cut both of mine up to save the coins. I looked at thousands of sets to find mine. And I never saw anyone else checking sets.
So there's your statistic; known supply is at zero and potential demand is in the tens of thousands.
Disclaimer; I'm only half way through selling my coins and there could possibly still be a gemmy and pristine '69 set in other safety deposit boxes.
Currently ChBU Morgans are in the $100 range. Circulated 1921s are over $30. [Just FYI]
Look, I don't claim to have a crystal ball. I also am not randomly throwing out numbers and statistics. Now we're back down to $2. OK. That number is so modest as to be both possible and not at all indicative of any major market change with regard to collecting.
To my mind, you are so fixated on the single thesis that you keep ignoring or excusing important considerations:
1. There is NOTHING to suggest that future generations are more likely to collect coins in general or clad coins in particular. Your claim is purely speculative.
2. There could be NO ChBU examples available and that has NO BEARING on the collectability of these issues. You mentioned non-U.S. coins. There was a significant increase in value for Chinese and Mexican coins in recent years. The obsolete issues of these coins are largely available as CIRCULATED not Ch or Gem BU. People collect them nonetheless and then pay premiums for pristine examples.
3. ALL Classic U.S. coins lack supplies of ChBU coins. Early American copper is heavily collected and most coins in that area are heavily circulated often with environmental damage. NO ONE CARES.> @wondercoin said:
CK. Bought this deal today to start the week… all still in original US Mint Shipping boxes!!
@wondercoin said:
I give up. After 10,000 words, we've finally narrowed the prediction down to Ch Bu coins costing a couple bucks. Inflation alone will get them there eventually. And if they only get to a couple bucks it is because there is no demand or there is significant supply or both. In that case, how did we reach the end of raw collections? At a couple bucks per coin, all the collections will stay raw and continue to move around between collectors.
10,000 words… that was 200 posts ago! 😂
Meanwhile, as we wait to see if the clad does reach that $2 prediction, a 1946 Walker just sold for about $150,000.00! 😧
Wondercoin
Earlier, you mentioned saving a lot of rolls and other US moderns for 39 years. Would you mind summarizing what you have (in general terms) dated prior to 1982 when you started?
“Probably just a fluke. What are the odds anybody else ever assembled an assortment of sets like that?”
Just got word that (7) large flat rate priority mail boxes of mostly Ike dollar proof sets were just signed for at the Post Office. That’s nearly (500) more proof sets TODAY!
CK- need a job in S CA? 😝
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@CoinscratchFever said:
I’m so confused and now my brain hurts. But will add; unless I’m just living in a bubble, most new so/called collectors are driven by profits not aesthetics and could careless what the coin was made of, when it was made, and who made it.
At least the name “Bitcoin” refers to a coin which, in turn will bring more of both types to the hobby.
I believe you are onto something here. It's my inference why they prefer NCLT to the extent they do.
“Earlier, you mentioned saving a lot of rolls and other US moderns for 39 years. Would you mind summarizing what you have (in general terms) dated prior to 1982 when you started?”
WCC. I haven’t intimately visited some of the bank vaults (other than to sign in at least once a year to be safe) in decades. Mint set coins starting in 1949 mostly, proof set coins starting in 1950 mostly and fresh original rolls from 1938 onward, but unfortunately no Walker rolls and very few Mercury dime rolls either. Generally, 1C to 25C bank wrapped. Tons of sealed Lincoln, Jefferson, Roosie and Wash 25C rolls mostly from the 40s and 50s. I opened most of the Franklin rolls to use to help build my “top 6” FBL set.
Basically, just a ton of “stuff” that eventually needs to be screened and graded, including a lot of toned 20th Century silver coins and clad material. Not too much different than what CK is doing right now with his clad material (half way finishing selling it I was reading). Only possible difference is a decent percentage of my stuff starts about 20 years before his does. I know of several coin dealers and serious collectors sitting on similar material with no time yet to deal with it either. This will be fun stuff to work on during retirement down the road!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I went to a well known dealer today and asked for mint sets and they pointed me to a wall full of proof sets and said all of the mint sets get wholesaled out. After spending some time rummaging through them and looking at other coins I can't afford to buy I purchased 12 proof sets. Then I asked again about the mint sets and said I wouldn't mind paying wholesale or even better. The rep then gave me his card and said to check back soon and he'll save some for me.
So could it actually be true? That dealers are too busy with bigger ticket items to go through all of these sets w/o checking for the Superb Gems. I had always assumed they look at everything but maybe not...
So here’s the sampling that I picked up today because this thread needed some pics. And aside from trying to develop a relationship with a dealer I chose these for obvious reasons of toning and cameo.
The haze and attrition is real...Count these in
I went to a well known dealer today and asked for mint sets and they pointed me to a wall full of proof sets and said all of the mint sets get wholesaled out.
This has been going on for half a century. There just isn't much demand for mint sets and most is coming from kennedy and Ike collectors. In recent years there is some demand from non-traditional buyers, jobbers, and wholesalers. These are popular sellers at estate sales and auctions. A $4 set can easily bring $20 at an estate sale so buyers like to buy all the cheap sets they can.
Mint sets are "consumed" and they've been eaten up for many many years. Now bids going sharply higher can only mean the wholesalers can't keep up with the demand for singles. There's going to be a lot of competition for these sets depriving dime and quarter collectors of an easy source for coins. Since every retailer in the country gets his supply of singles straight out of mint sets, where is he going to get them going forward. How long will his supply of 20 or 40 of each date single hold out when he can't buy mint sets on the cheap? What will this do to prices?
This is a very tiny niche market but it's important to a large number of collectors. This is the source of almost every lustrous Uncirculated modern and all of a sudden it is not sufficient to the demand. I've been warning of this for years and it's finally here. Who knew it wouldn't happen until there were so few mint sets remaining.
BU's aren't nearly as hard to restore as proofs, especially clad proofs. Good luck, some of those are beauties.
As a small time collector I’m not feeling too much of a crunch if any. But I am new in the game and don’t have years of statistical data either. So I will heed the advice and will be searching every nook and cranny.
The shear numbers of any given modern is the lifeblood of the hunt. And the hunt is the lifeblood of the hobby.
Hopefully, my wife buys that one while on vacation next week
To my mind, you are so fixated on the single thesis that you keep ignoring or excusing important considerations:
1. There is NOTHING to suggest that future generations are more likely to collect coins in general or clad coins in particular. Your claim is purely speculative.
With a supply approaching zero it requires only a demand approaching two.
In the real world modern coins are not like classics and traded like classics. They instead have a steady stream flowing into wholesalers which are parceled out as singles to the general public. This worked fine until recently when the flow became insufficient for demand.
There could be NO ChBU examples available and that has NO BEARING on the collectability of these issues. You mentioned non-U.S. coins. There was a significant increase in value for Chinese and Mexican coins in recent years. The obsolete issues of these coins are largely available as CIRCULATED not Ch or Gem BU. People collect them nonetheless and then pay premiums for pristine examples.
Do you really think this coin with a mintage of 16,000,000 is innately more artistic, historic, and desirable than a scarcer clad quarter. What do you find so appealing that it is severely damaged or that it is made of aluminum?
A clad quarter in chBU or especially Gem is far more significant than an exceedingly common old German coin which everyone forgot to save, JUST LIKE ALL CLAD QUARTERS.
ALL Classic U.S. coins lack supplies of ChBU coins.
This is simply not true. Coins were saved in BU all the way back in the 1870's. Vast hoards of bust half dollars were saved in BU as specie. Many old coins were saved in quantity.
Early American copper is heavily collected and most coins in that area are heavily circulated often with environmental damage. NO ONE CARES.
Are you suggesting then that if there were ample supplies of BU's that people would still collect in low grade? Are you aware that lots of old coppers look pretty good in low grade whereas most clad doesn't look good until it's worn out which won't happen because they are lost and beaten up first.
Moderns are not old coppers. They are old copper nickels and for numerous reasons are nothing like a large cent. How much computer time could you buy for a brand new 1804 cent?
CK. On a relative basis, when I chase a $20,000 coin at auction, my competition is deciding to spend roughly $210 (in relative terms of my money). Think about that and the benefits of doing your own work and producing “home made” coins for one’s registry sets. And, hence, the “beer budget” comment. On a night out in Singapore not too long ago, the beer for me and a friend cost over $210 and it wasn’t even the good stuff! 😆
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Do you really think this coin with a mintage of 16,000,000 is innately more artistic, historic, and desirable than a scarcer clad quarter. What do you find so appealing that it is severely damaged or that it is made of aluminum?
How does your example demonstrate your point?
It's an ask price on eBay and everyone knows how it's known for reasonable listed prices, right? I'd guess it's worth less than $1 regardless of the Krause list. It's an unappealing coin, regardless of how supposedly scarce it is a now.
Are you suggesting then that if there were ample supplies of BU's that people would still collect in low grade? Are you aware that lots of old coppers look pretty good in low grade whereas most clad doesn't look good until it's worn out which won't happen because they are lost and beaten up first.
Moderns are not old coppers. They are old copper nickels and for numerous reasons are nothing like a large cent. How much computer time could you buy for a brand new 1804 cent?
There is no equivalence between US moderns and early US copper. That US clad lacks the supply you claim meeting your quality criteria isn't relevant to the collecting of early US copper.
It's true collectors would not collect this coinage as they do now if it were common in BU but it isn't. The reason early US copper is widely collected even in very low grades is because US collectors assign it a very high relative preference, as opposed to US moderns which they do not.
This is a very tiny niche market but it's important to a large number of collectors. This is the source of almost every lustrous Uncirculated modern and all of a sudden it is not sufficient to the demand. I've been warning of this for years and it's finally here. Who knew it wouldn't happen until there were so few mint sets remaining.
Objection! Assumes facts not in evidence. I will agree that that it's a niche market, perhaps because very few care. Where is the evidence of a "large number of collectors" for this material? I guess it depends upon the definition of "large".
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
“Who knew it wouldn't happen until there were so few mint sets remaining.”
CK: And, objection #2, facts not in evidence- I have literally been flooded with mint sets and proof sets this week. Roughly $15,000-$20,000 spent already in past few days (and that’s not easy to do buying sets with price tags as little as $6.10- my new high buy price for your favorite - the 1969 set). I’ve now started lowering my buy prices to slow down the flow a bit.
I won’t bore you with lists any more of every single mint set and proof set quantity from 1968-1990 that I buy all day. But, might I suggest you reach out to your other contacts to actually confirm the sets are really “drying up”. Maybe the rising prices are resulting in huge supplies of these sets hitting the market and a great many “wholesale” buyers getting flooded with them. And, I don’t consider myself a wholesale buyer - I am often paying substantially over “bid” for the top shelf sets! I want fresh sets and will pay up for them.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
This is a very tiny niche market but it's important to a large number of collectors. This is the source of almost every lustrous Uncirculated modern and all of a sudden it is not sufficient to the demand. I've been warning of this for years and it's finally here. Who knew it wouldn't happen until there were so few mint sets remaining.
Objection! Assumes facts not in evidence. I will agree that that it's a niche market, perhaps because very few care. Where is the evidence of a "large number of collectors" for this material? I guess it depends upon the definition of "large".
I can see your objection. I often do this; change my perspective between sentences or even in the middle of a sentence and expect people to keep up.
Clad dime and quarter collectors are few and far between but there are lots of nickel collectors and even more one cent collectors and even more Ike and half dollar collectors. Then there are also a few mint set collectors and a handful of other oddball material that can include mint sets or their constituent parts. Even in aggregate this isn't a huge market but it was sufficient to destroy all the mint sets even before there was a wholesale market for dimes or quarters.
@wondercoin said:
CK. On a relative basis, when I chase a $20,000 coin at auction, my competition is deciding to spend roughly $210 (in relative terms of my money). Think about that and the benefits of doing your own work and producing “home made” coins for one’s registry sets. And, hence, the “beer budget” comment. On a night out in Singapore not too long ago, the beer for me and a friend cost over $210 and it wasn’t even the good stuff! 😆
If I ever spent even a $100 on beer they'd have called a cab.
By the time I got to $50 bucks I'd have been buying one for the house.
wondercoin: "I have literally been flooded with mint sets and proof sets this week."
cladking: "Even in aggregate this isn't a huge market but it was sufficient to destroy all the mint sets even before there was a wholesale market for dimes or quarters."
But, I believe we both are providing honest accounts of our recent experiences. So, who can answer this “riddle” and demonstrate that both can actually be true? CK - care to take a crack at it?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
It's an ask price on eBay and everyone knows how it's known for reasonable listed prices, right? I'd guess it's worth less than $1 regardless of the Krause list. It's an unappealing coin, regardless of how supposedly scarce it is a now.
You get way too hung up on the difference between wholesale and retail. When you pay 5c for a coin it doesn't matter all that much if you sell it for $2700 or $1600. It matters if you paid $1500 and it matters a lot if you paid $2000.
I would suggest this coin in spectacular Gem isn't all that great but It will sell for more than the 50c price tag on it back in the 1970's. As a collector I'd rather have the MS-66 '72-D quarter for $5. The '50-E simply has less going for it except its price.
There is no equivalence between US moderns and early US copper. That US clad lacks the supply you claim meeting your quality criteria isn't relevant to the collecting of early US copper.
The only thing relevant to the price of clad quarters is that demand has been increasiong exponentially for 22 years and now with demand still at a low level (and still increasing exponentially) the supply is gone; consumed by neglect and apathy.
@wondercoin said:
But, I believe we both are providing honest accounts of our recent experiences.
No doubt. But I'm not as convinced by experiences or opinions as I am by facts. Even assuming everybody is being scrupulously honest here, saying you're being flooded with mint/proof sets is a fact, saying all the mint sets were destroyed is an opinion (not an experience).
It's an ask price on eBay and everyone knows how it's known for reasonable listed prices, right? I'd guess it's worth less than $1 regardless of the Krause list. It's an unappealing coin, regardless of how supposedly scarce it is a now.
You get way too hung up on the difference between wholesale and retail. When you pay 5c for a coin it doesn't matter all that much if you sell it for $2700 or $1600. It matters if you paid $1500 and it matters a lot if you paid $2000.
I would suggest this coin in spectacular Gem isn't all that great but It will sell for more than the 50c price tag on it back in the 1970's. As a collector I'd rather have the MS-66 '72-D quarter for $5. The '50-E simply has less going for it except its price.
Now I am really confused. What does this post of yours have to do with your point, now or previously?
You compared the coin in the link offered @ $20 as an alternative to some clad, not one worth $1600 or $2700. I'm telling you the coin isn't worth $20. Even if it is, how many US collectors buying clad consider it as an alternative? I can infer that almost no German collector (about the only other buyer for it) is buying a single US clad for any premium.
There is no equivalence between US moderns and early US copper. That US clad lacks the supply you claim meeting your quality criteria isn't relevant to the collecting of early US copper.
The only thing relevant to the price of clad quarters is that demand has been increasiong exponentially for 22 years and now with demand still at a low level (and still increasing exponentially) the supply is gone; consumed by neglect and apathy.
@MasonG said:
wondercoin: "I have literally been flooded with mint sets and proof sets this week."
cladking: "Even in aggregate this isn't a huge market but it was sufficient to destroy all the mint sets even before there was a wholesale market for dimes or quarters."
Both can't be true.
I'm choosing "Door A". Both are recent personal experience but one is a lot more representative and less biased than the other.
@MasonG said:
wondercoin: "I have literally been flooded with mint sets and proof sets this week."
cladking: "Even in aggregate this isn't a huge market but it was sufficient to destroy all the mint sets even before there was a wholesale market for dimes or quarters."
Both can't be true.
I'm choosing "Door A". Both are recent personal experience but one is a lot more representative and less biased than the other.
A couple of my favorite clad quarters are the '69 and '71. He got in a "flood" of ZERO of them.
Indeed, even if there were seven or eight it's improbable that there would be a single choiceBU of either date.
In the '70's if you advertised to pay bid you'd have gotten hundreds of each date. The sets are gone and what's left are tarnished.
No doubt. But I'm not as convinced by experiences or opinions as I am by facts.
"Facts" and "statistics" are meaningless. What really counts are axioms, definitions, and visceral knowledge.
It is a fact they made a couple million of each date mint set. It is a fact I've seen wholesalers cut up thousands of a single date at a time. Once in a while they'd even let me have the parts for face value. I've even seen local coin shops cut up hundreds of something like '70 mint sets at once. Nobody has this kind of quantity any longer and when I do the math it's because the sets are gone.
The vast majority, among those who would even like to own a reasonably nice example of these coins, do not want to spend thousands of hours of time, and all the legwork and handling work, to obtain "a sufficiently suitable" one for their collection.
Rather, they will spend 5 minutes on ebay, and a dollar or two for one in the mint cello or a 2x2, or a sawbuck or two for one in a slab, and be done with it. These are very easy coins to find in perfectly decent condition.
And those who want a top pop Gem, and can afford it, will buy it from someone like CK or Wondercoin 😎
@Baley said:
The vast majority, among those who would even like to own a reasonably nice example of these coins, do not want to spend thousands of hours of time, and all the legwork and handling work, to obtain "a sufficiently suitable" one for their collection.
Rather, they will spend 5 minutes on ebay, and a dollar or two for one in the mint cello or a 2x2, or a sawbuck or two for one in a slab, and be done with it. These are very easy coins to find in perfectly decent condition.
Comments
What is the gemmiest key date mint set worth in pristine condition if chBU moderns are worth 5 to 10 dollars in BU?
"Financially meaningful" is dependent on things like perspective and stake. If you want to sell such coins you must first buy them. If you want to buy them it's a good idea to understand the market first.
Five to ten dollars is a burger and fries and a coke at Jack in the Box. There's your perspective.
I don't know what the "gemmiest" key date will be worth in the future but I can anticipate it's going to be worth a (low) fraction of what you have claimed in the past and are implying now.
If you are referring to condition census coins, I have already conceded multiple increases are more likely, but only where the counts remain very low.
Not for the markets you have used here. I just told you that $5 to $10 is like buying a movie ticket> That's not financially meaningful.
If you are now inferring or claiming that someone is going to make it "financially meaningful" based upon volume, it's possible for a very low number of collectors. Certainly not because the coins are going to appreciate anywhere close to your claims for world "moderns".
Silence is hate if my house is in fire and you won't call the fire department...
Yes, the baby boomers "hated" clad so much, that's why they bought millions of Mint and proof sets for decades, each and every year.
You want to know his definition of "hate"?
Failing to agree with him on the the coin's relative merits and how much the coins should be worth. Until the general consensus agrees with his views, collectors will continue to "hate" it.
I must be at the top of the "Most Wanted" list, even though (gasp!) I did buy a few US moderns after I resumed collecting in 1998, from the US Mint.
He seems to be implying that EACH coin in the gemmiest mint set is worth $5 to $10 which makes a 2014 Mint Set worth a couple hundred bucks.
He ping pongs around these price ranges.... it's $500... no it's a couple bucks... $5 to$10... soon, back to $500.
As for hate, I don't like silver dimes better than clad. I don't collect either. I don't like silver Washington quarters better than clad. I don't collect either. I do like Buffalo nickels but not Jefferson... and they are both made of nickel.
I think the composition issue is overstated. People collected state quarters and ATBs but that didn't make them go get the 1965 to 1998 clad quarters. Meanwhile people like Kennedy halves best of all and there are very few silver years.
I think the problem is design exhaustion not metal composition. That is not going to change with time. For most people, they are monotonous boring series that they don't feel like filling 3 albums with, so they stop at one.
I haven't bought a US coin for my collection in maybe 20 years. There's a whole wide world out there, lots of interesting stuff once you realize it exists. Sure, early US is like that, too, but compared to world coins, it's horribly overpriced. Dead presidents (year after year after year) are not even on my radar as far as an item to collect anymore, clad or silver.
I believe the metal composition matters at the lowest price points but it's not the primary or even a noticeable factor otherwise.
Earlier, I mentioned the gap between silver and clad Washington quarters. Most US collectors presumably consider the silver "popular" and it is by the size of the collector base. It's still a series I consider to have one of the lowest preferences among classics, like slightly higher or lower than the Franklin half.
If there are 50,000 to 100,000 collecting the silver series in some format, I'd estimate maybe as many as 500 have as much in it as I do in my primary collection and this might be generous. Per the Heritage data, clad might have between one and two dozen.
I expect the clad to marginally close the gap with the silver price wise, outside of a big up in spot price. There may be noticeably more spending hundreds on a complete set. I disagree there will be any "surge" spending thousands or more for the reason you gave. It isn't competitive versus the alternatives at "noticeably" higher prices and I don't believe there is going to be any "surge" in lower priced US coinage generally either.
I infer the silver has lost "share of wallet" to NCLT since around 2006 when it seems to have peaked during the SQ series. I see no catalyst where this series will perform better than US coins generally (maybe worse), other than due to silver spot. I expect peak popularity for this series during my lifetime to have come and gone.
CK. I received randomly the following fresh looking quality (I get to deduct 10% for inferior quality sets and we deducted $0 on these sets) Ike $1 mint sets this week (not screened for anything yet). I received other dated mint sets as well, but just talking about the Ike $1 related sets. That’s 140 Unc. Ikes for these Mint Set dates. On top of that, I received 1,000 “Circ./Unc. Ike Bag” which Lauren is taking a look at tonight for quality assessment. So, 1,140 new Ikes to deal with just this week (not counting all the proof coins and 1971-76 silver BU Ikes). I received a run of 1973 Mint sets last week by the way.
Note- my focus is really proof Ikes. I produce more 11 pc “69” proof Ike sets at PCGS than just about anyone out there. I generally get in hundreds of fresh proof Ike sets weekly. I haven’t done much with MS Ikes for years, but just started to again recently including the “blue” 71-74 silvers and “red” 1976, which are all not included here.
*** So…. Have they really “disappeared”? Are the days of “raw moderns” over? ***
Random MS Ikes Received W/E 06/27:
BU/Ch. BU In Mint Sets:
1974 - 2 x 2
1975 - 13 x 2
1976 - 21 x 2
1977 - 13 x 2
1978 - 21 x 2
Total - 140 coins.
$1,000 Bag of Circs/BU - 1,000 coins
Total Ikes in for week - 1,140 (not counting the hundreds of proof Ikes, or MS silver 1971-76 Ikes received).
Wondercoin
Getting ready for some more random statistics....
I give up. After 10,000 words, we've finally narrowed the prediction down to Ch Bu coins costing a couple bucks. Inflation alone will get them there eventually. And if they only get to a couple bucks it is because there is no demand or there is significant supply or both. In that case, how did we reach the end of raw collections? At a couple bucks per coin, all the collections will stay raw and continue to move around between collectors.
10,000 words… that was 200 posts ago! 😂
Meanwhile, as we wait to see if the clad does reach that $2 prediction, a 1946 Walker just sold for about $150,000.00! 😧
Wondercoin
I’m so confused and now my brain hurts. But will add; unless I’m just living in a bubble, most new so/called collectors are driven by profits not aesthetics and could careless what the coin was made of, when it was made, and who made it.
At least the name “Bitcoin” refers to a coin which, in turn will bring more of both types to the hobby.
I can't believe I even have to ask this. What's a chBU Morgan dollar worth? Most people know that it's in the $35 range and you'll mostly get 1921's rather than a fistful of 1893-S's. The value of Morgan dollars vary a lot. They vary by date, mint mark, and condition. Why would anyone expect any modern coin to be different? Most people think they are equally "junk" and if you've seen one them you've seen them all but as I am continually trying to point out this is not the case.
If there were a supply and a wholesaler and you ordered a mixture of chBU clad quarters from a wholesaler for two dollar apiece then you'd get mostly '72-D's. You could check every roll and never find an '83-P.
My question was, if a chBU eagle reverse clad quarter wholesales at $2 then what is an entire set of the scarcest Gems worth in pristine condition. Keep in mind that by the time chBU's hit $2 that the market will have evolved and matured. There may not even be a single Gem 1969 set left by then. I had to cut both of mine up to save the coins. I looked at thousands of sets to find mine. And I never saw anyone else checking sets.
So there's your statistic; known supply is at zero and potential demand is in the tens of thousands.
Disclaimer; I'm only half way through selling my coins and there could possibly still be a gemmy and pristine '69 set in other safety deposit boxes.
"Profit motive" is hardly an unusual motivation for coin collectors in any generation. This is largely what drives the piling on any hot new coin collectible. In the early '70's everyone wanted silver art bars. It started as a cheap means of acquiring attractive silver but then the low mintage and early bars became collectible in their own right and commanded massive premiums. In the mid-'80 you could pick up the scarcities that had been worth hundreds of dollars for $5. Today silver is much higher and some of the old scarce bars are getting a little premium again.
It is human nature to do what everyone else is doing but it is usually beneficial not to and this is true nowhere moreso than in investment decisions and especially in coins that are purchased for "investment" or speculation. It is unwise to speculate or "invest" in coins but this won't stop people. It is very unwise to invest in anything you don't understand and can't predict. Now days this seems to encompass everything much more than it did even 40 years ago.
@Cladking Yes, I realize profit has always been a main factor. But when you here all the chatter about clad and how older collectors don't like it ~ as much. It seems profit tips the scales vs. beauty.
Any who, after enough discussion here, my take away is to hunt more far and wide for these mint packs. And I'm not talking about the ones the Bay that are sealed and have never been opened because more than likely someone on this thread has already been there.
At this time I doubt there are too many older collectors into any clad for the profit motive alone. Even I who accumulated these coins over decades partly for profit and partly to preserve coins for future generations find the coins attractive, historical, and of great numismatic (and statistical) interest. I certainly can understand why so many consider them the US Mint's concept of chuckee cheese tokens. To each his own.
Most of the new demand for mint sets and moderns is coming from young people and I expect the growth in demand to continue. Many years ago I believe older collectors would get into these coins and find there weren't so many as believed but this just never happened. It was probably unwise to expect many people to change their collective and not collective minds. But, I suppose, that if they increased sharply in value as seems to be at hand at least a few will change their minds and it doesn't really matter since coin dealers have no choice but to stock all popular coins. The local coin shop can't fail to stock mint sets and albums for clad quarters if there are two or three people walking in every day requesting them. As I have said just priming the pump for these markets will chew up a lot of the current supply.
Most coin shops still have 20 or 30 on hand and they are often uncherried. Now days there are a lot more sets walking out the door than being shipped. In the old days dealers would sell 20 sets a year to customers and ship 1000. Of course with the sharply increased pricing it will be interesting to see if more sets come in and what dealers do with stock on hand. I expect few more sets to come in and most of their stock to be shipped. Wholesalers will get a big bulge in inventories but for now the sets will still be cut up for half dollars and dollars.
CK. Bought this deal today to start the week… all still in original US Mint Shipping boxes!!
Are the days of raw moderns really over? 😂
Mint Sets
1975 - 5
1976 - 10
1978 - 10
1979 - 10
1980 - 10
1981 - 15
1984 - 14
1985 - 5
1986 - 8
1987 - 5
1988 - 3
1989 - 3
1990 - 4
1992 - 9
1993 - 5
1994 - 4
1995 - 6
1995 - 4
1998 - 3
1999 - 3
Clad Proof
1974 - 5
1975 - 5
1976 - 3
1978 - 5
1979 - 5
1980 - 5
1981 - 1
1982 - 10
1983 - 10
1984 - 15
1985 - 5
1986 - 5
1988 - 5
1989 - 10
1991 - 5
1992 - 8
1993 - 10
1994 - 5
1995 - 5
1996 - 5
1997 - 5
1998 - 5
2000 - 5
2001 - 5
2001 Quarter - 10
2002 Quarter - 1
2003 Quarter - 5
2004 Quarter - 6
2006 Quarter - 12
Silver Proof
1976 3pc - 8
1984 Prestige - 2
1990 Prestige - 5
1992 Premier - 5
1993 - 5
1995 - 5
1996 - 5
1996 Premier - 1
1997 - 5
1999 - 2
2004 Silver Quarters - 7
Ikes
1974 Blue - 5
1974 Brown - 2
Commems
1982 G. Wash 1/2 PR - 20
1982 G. Wash 1/2 Unc - 10
1986 SOL 1/2 Unc - 5
1986 SOL $1 Unc - 5
1987 Const. $ Unc - 2
1987 Const $ PR - 5
1991 Korea $ PR - 3
1994 Capitol $ PR - 3
2000 Lib of Cong $ PR - 1
2002 West Pt $ PR - 2
2002 West Pt $ Unc - 2
1986 SOL 2 pc PR - 5
1989 Congress 2 pc PR - 1
1993 Bill of Rights 2 pc - 4
1994 Veterans 3 pc PR - 5
Wondercoin
Currently ChBU Morgans are in the $100 range. Circulated 1921s are over $30. [Just FYI]
Look, I don't claim to have a crystal ball. I also am not randomly throwing out numbers and statistics. Now we're back down to $2. OK. That number is so modest as to be both possible and not at all indicative of any major market change with regard to collecting.
To my mind, you are so fixated on the single thesis that you keep ignoring or excusing important considerations:
1. There is NOTHING to suggest that future generations are more likely to collect coins in general or clad coins in particular. Your claim is purely speculative.
2. There could be NO ChBU examples available and that has NO BEARING on the collectability of these issues. You mentioned non-U.S. coins. There was a significant increase in value for Chinese and Mexican coins in recent years. The obsolete issues of these coins are largely available as CIRCULATED not Ch or Gem BU. People collect them nonetheless and then pay premiums for pristine examples.
3. ALL Classic U.S. coins lack supplies of ChBU coins. Early American copper is heavily collected and most coins in that area are heavily circulated often with environmental damage. NO ONE CARES.> @wondercoin said:
When you're done processing them, the days of raw coins will be over.
Probably just a fluke. What are the odds anybody else ever assembled an assortment of sets like that?
Earlier, you mentioned saving a lot of rolls and other US moderns for 39 years. Would you mind summarizing what you have (in general terms) dated prior to 1982 when you started?
Thanks
“Probably just a fluke. What are the odds anybody else ever assembled an assortment of sets like that?”
Just got word that (7) large flat rate priority mail boxes of mostly Ike dollar proof sets were just signed for at the Post Office. That’s nearly (500) more proof sets TODAY!
CK- need a job in S CA? 😝
Wondercoin
I believe you are onto something here. It's my inference why they prefer NCLT to the extent they do.
“Earlier, you mentioned saving a lot of rolls and other US moderns for 39 years. Would you mind summarizing what you have (in general terms) dated prior to 1982 when you started?”
WCC. I haven’t intimately visited some of the bank vaults (other than to sign in at least once a year to be safe) in decades. Mint set coins starting in 1949 mostly, proof set coins starting in 1950 mostly and fresh original rolls from 1938 onward, but unfortunately no Walker rolls and very few Mercury dime rolls either. Generally, 1C to 25C bank wrapped. Tons of sealed Lincoln, Jefferson, Roosie and Wash 25C rolls mostly from the 40s and 50s. I opened most of the Franklin rolls to use to help build my “top 6” FBL set.
Basically, just a ton of “stuff” that eventually needs to be screened and graded, including a lot of toned 20th Century silver coins and clad material. Not too much different than what CK is doing right now with his clad material (half way finishing selling it I was reading). Only possible difference is a decent percentage of my stuff starts about 20 years before his does. I know of several coin dealers and serious collectors sitting on similar material with no time yet to deal with it either. This will be fun stuff to work on during retirement down the road!
Wondercoin
I'd like to visit that SDB Wondercoin
I went to a well known dealer today and asked for mint sets and they pointed me to a wall full of proof sets and said all of the mint sets get wholesaled out. After spending some time rummaging through them and looking at other coins I can't afford to buy I purchased 12 proof sets. Then I asked again about the mint sets and said I wouldn't mind paying wholesale or even better. The rep then gave me his card and said to check back soon and he'll save some for me.
So could it actually be true? That dealers are too busy with bigger ticket items to go through all of these sets w/o checking for the Superb Gems. I had always assumed they look at everything but maybe not...
“w/o checking for the Superb Gems.”
Who has time to look for needles in haystacks? I do it as my only long shot chance to continue to compete against billionaires on my “beer budget” ! 😂
Edited to add- good work CSF! It’s always more fun getting your hands dirty! 👍
So here’s the sampling that I picked up today because this thread needed some pics. And aside from trying to develop a relationship with a dealer I chose these for obvious reasons of toning and cameo.
The haze and attrition is real...Count these in
This has been going on for half a century. There just isn't much demand for mint sets and most is coming from kennedy and Ike collectors. In recent years there is some demand from non-traditional buyers, jobbers, and wholesalers. These are popular sellers at estate sales and auctions. A $4 set can easily bring $20 at an estate sale so buyers like to buy all the cheap sets they can.
Mint sets are "consumed" and they've been eaten up for many many years. Now bids going sharply higher can only mean the wholesalers can't keep up with the demand for singles. There's going to be a lot of competition for these sets depriving dime and quarter collectors of an easy source for coins. Since every retailer in the country gets his supply of singles straight out of mint sets, where is he going to get them going forward. How long will his supply of 20 or 40 of each date single hold out when he can't buy mint sets on the cheap? What will this do to prices?
This is a very tiny niche market but it's important to a large number of collectors. This is the source of almost every lustrous Uncirculated modern and all of a sudden it is not sufficient to the demand. I've been warning of this for years and it's finally here. Who knew it wouldn't happen until there were so few mint sets remaining.
BU's aren't nearly as hard to restore as proofs, especially clad proofs. Good luck, some of those are beauties.
As a small time collector I’m not feeling too much of a crunch if any. But I am new in the game and don’t have years of statistical data either. So I will heed the advice and will be searching every nook and cranny.
The shear numbers of any given modern is the lifeblood of the hunt. And the hunt is the lifeblood of the hobby.
Hopefully, my wife buys that one while on vacation next week
If you have a beer budget then I have a non-potable water budget!
With a supply approaching zero it requires only a demand approaching two.
In the real world modern coins are not like classics and traded like classics. They instead have a steady stream flowing into wholesalers which are parceled out as singles to the general public. This worked fine until recently when the flow became insufficient for demand.
[img]https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/jsAAAOSw6QJdPMee/s-l64.jpg [/img]
[img]https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/qrMAAOSws59dPMei/s-l1600.jpg[/img]
Here's a coin on eBay for $20.
Do you really think this coin with a mintage of 16,000,000 is innately more artistic, historic, and desirable than a scarcer clad quarter. What do you find so appealing that it is severely damaged or that it is made of aluminum?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/113833540893?_trkparms=ispr=1&amdata=enc:AQAGAAAAkCnmIJ5VMHOA0d6Q7b8zecSIDV3HQRtH52lptJFl/tbN+XffmkVR/Gil7fURWwGbDmE7oTzrx1vO3A5InVxaaEiNQC3YVqqOV6naDdmA+TiWVwq+mV4rYMMtXs13ThRgHdEqqANJ4Wo64EXMW2MRskXXsZNel5DCewY64w6J5Ad63wAaVBzK4fzN5UXIYVlzTg==&chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&itemid=113833540893&targetid=1319121932087&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9016184&poi=&campaignid=11615951275&mkgroupid=121062610694&rlsatarget=pla-1319121932087&abcId=9300457&merchantid=6296724&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIyZr1ury98QIVrHNvBB02PgyiEAQYAyABEgIiq_D_BwE
A clad quarter in chBU or especially Gem is far more significant than an exceedingly common old German coin which everyone forgot to save, JUST LIKE ALL CLAD QUARTERS.
This is simply not true. Coins were saved in BU all the way back in the 1870's. Vast hoards of bust half dollars were saved in BU as specie. Many old coins were saved in quantity.
Are you suggesting then that if there were ample supplies of BU's that people would still collect in low grade? Are you aware that lots of old coppers look pretty good in low grade whereas most clad doesn't look good until it's worn out which won't happen because they are lost and beaten up first.
Moderns are not old coppers. They are old copper nickels and for numerous reasons are nothing like a large cent. How much computer time could you buy for a brand new 1804 cent?
CK. On a relative basis, when I chase a $20,000 coin at auction, my competition is deciding to spend roughly $210 (in relative terms of my money). Think about that and the benefits of doing your own work and producing “home made” coins for one’s registry sets. And, hence, the “beer budget” comment. On a night out in Singapore not too long ago, the beer for me and a friend cost over $210 and it wasn’t even the good stuff! 😆
Wondercoin
How does your example demonstrate your point?
It's an ask price on eBay and everyone knows how it's known for reasonable listed prices, right? I'd guess it's worth less than $1 regardless of the Krause list. It's an unappealing coin, regardless of how supposedly scarce it is a now.
There is no equivalence between US moderns and early US copper. That US clad lacks the supply you claim meeting your quality criteria isn't relevant to the collecting of early US copper.
It's true collectors would not collect this coinage as they do now if it were common in BU but it isn't. The reason early US copper is widely collected even in very low grades is because US collectors assign it a very high relative preference, as opposed to US moderns which they do not.
Objection! Assumes facts not in evidence. I will agree that that it's a niche market, perhaps because very few care. Where is the evidence of a "large number of collectors" for this material? I guess it depends upon the definition of "large".
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
“Who knew it wouldn't happen until there were so few mint sets remaining.”
CK: And, objection #2, facts not in evidence- I have literally been flooded with mint sets and proof sets this week. Roughly $15,000-$20,000 spent already in past few days (and that’s not easy to do buying sets with price tags as little as $6.10- my new high buy price for your favorite - the 1969 set). I’ve now started lowering my buy prices to slow down the flow a bit.
I won’t bore you with lists any more of every single mint set and proof set quantity from 1968-1990 that I buy all day. But, might I suggest you reach out to your other contacts to actually confirm the sets are really “drying up”. Maybe the rising prices are resulting in huge supplies of these sets hitting the market and a great many “wholesale” buyers getting flooded with them. And, I don’t consider myself a wholesale buyer - I am often paying substantially over “bid” for the top shelf sets! I want fresh sets and will pay up for them.
Wondercoin
I can see your objection. I often do this; change my perspective between sentences or even in the middle of a sentence and expect people to keep up.
Clad dime and quarter collectors are few and far between but there are lots of nickel collectors and even more one cent collectors and even more Ike and half dollar collectors. Then there are also a few mint set collectors and a handful of other oddball material that can include mint sets or their constituent parts. Even in aggregate this isn't a huge market but it was sufficient to destroy all the mint sets even before there was a wholesale market for dimes or quarters.
If I ever spent even a $100 on beer they'd have called a cab.
By the time I got to $50 bucks I'd have been buying one for the house.
wondercoin: "I have literally been flooded with mint sets and proof sets this week."
cladking: "Even in aggregate this isn't a huge market but it was sufficient to destroy all the mint sets even before there was a wholesale market for dimes or quarters."
Both can't be true.
“Both can't be true.”
But, I believe we both are providing honest accounts of our recent experiences. So, who can answer this “riddle” and demonstrate that both can actually be true? CK - care to take a crack at it?
Wondercoin
You get way too hung up on the difference between wholesale and retail. When you pay 5c for a coin it doesn't matter all that much if you sell it for $2700 or $1600. It matters if you paid $1500 and it matters a lot if you paid $2000.
I would suggest this coin in spectacular Gem isn't all that great but It will sell for more than the 50c price tag on it back in the 1970's. As a collector I'd rather have the MS-66 '72-D quarter for $5. The '50-E simply has less going for it except its price.
The only thing relevant to the price of clad quarters is that demand has been increasiong exponentially for 22 years and now with demand still at a low level (and still increasing exponentially) the supply is gone; consumed by neglect and apathy.
“By the time I got to $50 bucks I'd have been buying one for the house.
”
Who said we weren’t! 😉
Wondercoin
No doubt. But I'm not as convinced by experiences or opinions as I am by facts. Even assuming everybody is being scrupulously honest here, saying you're being flooded with mint/proof sets is a fact, saying all the mint sets were destroyed is an opinion (not an experience).
Perhaps my “flood” is Heritage’s light drizzle? 😂
Wondercoin
Now I am really confused. What does this post of yours have to do with your point, now or previously?
You compared the coin in the link offered @ $20 as an alternative to some clad, not one worth $1600 or $2700. I'm telling you the coin isn't worth $20. Even if it is, how many US collectors buying clad consider it as an alternative? I can infer that almost no German collector (about the only other buyer for it) is buying a single US clad for any premium.
Then why did you compare clad to early US copper?
I'm choosing "Door A". Both are recent personal experience but one is a lot more representative and less biased than the other.
A couple of my favorite clad quarters are the '69 and '71. He got in a "flood" of ZERO of them.
Indeed, even if there were seven or eight it's improbable that there would be a single choiceBU of either date.
In the '70's if you advertised to pay bid you'd have gotten hundreds of each date. The sets are gone and what's left are tarnished.
"Facts" and "statistics" are meaningless. What really counts are axioms, definitions, and visceral knowledge.
It is a fact they made a couple million of each date mint set. It is a fact I've seen wholesalers cut up thousands of a single date at a time. Once in a while they'd even let me have the parts for face value. I've even seen local coin shops cut up hundreds of something like '70 mint sets at once. Nobody has this kind of quantity any longer and when I do the math it's because the sets are gone.
The vast majority, among those who would even like to own a reasonably nice example of these coins, do not want to spend thousands of hours of time, and all the legwork and handling work, to obtain "a sufficiently suitable" one for their collection.
Rather, they will spend 5 minutes on ebay, and a dollar or two for one in the mint cello or a 2x2, or a sawbuck or two for one in a slab, and be done with it. These are very easy coins to find in perfectly decent condition.
And those who want a top pop Gem, and can afford it, will buy it from someone like CK or Wondercoin 😎
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
cladking: ""Even in aggregate this isn't a huge market but it was sufficient to destroy all the mint sets..."
wondercoin: "I have literally been flooded with mint sets and proof sets this week."
cladking: "A couple of my favorite clad quarters are the '69 and '71. He got ion a "flood" of ZERO of them."
Are those goalposts motorized or do you have to haul them around by hand?
.> @MasonG said:
Well, at least he isn't making similar claims to those in reply to my posts elsewhere. Or, at least I do not infer it.
And there you have it.