To be fair, you have embedded in your own argument the reason why you may be wrong. You say that there is no market, "people aren't selling all their 40 cent coins on eBay". That is also why there are no wholesale mountains of coins.
No, this is impossible. There is a good wholesale market for rolls of zincolns that wholesale for 40c each so why no quarters? Zincolns really do exist in huge numbers. You can buy rolls and rolls of them. A lot will be bad, very bad, but there are mountains out there.
But that also means YOUR visibility on these coins is NOT good. It is very hard to know what is in everyone's change jar and whitman albums.
I've been watching these for 56 years and I know what's out there. There is nowhere a mountain can be hiding. I peek into every dark corner looking for bits of it and I spent years watching it erode away.
There is some small probability that a higher percentage of dismantled sets were saved than I believe but many of these coins were saved in the cello so are bad now. I do believe only about 20% of the quarters were saved and the number could be higher. But the sets are still gone and coins in the packaging are still bad.
IF IF IF they ever caught on, which you sometimes are suggesting, you would suddenly have these coins flowing through the market and the invisible would become visible.
Yes!!! Of course. Lots of coins would flow onto the market in the course of the next twenty years and it still wouldn't be nearly enough for a mass market.
By the way, for fun, I searched for clad sets of quarters on eBay. Spent 30 seconds on it, but there are people selling multiple sets "from rolls". I wouldn't be too sure there aren't any out there.
Yes!!! These rolls came from mint set rolls. There are no rolls of most dates and even "common" dates are unavailable. People who wanted these coins got them from mint sets because coins made for circulation were ugly, especially in the early days. The only original rolls of '69 clad quarters I've seen since 1970 are in this thread!!! As I explained there are probably fewer than 4 bags set aside and it might be a lot fewer. More importantly most of these coins would not grade "chBU" because they were too ugly the day they were cranked out by the mint. Four bags even if they were nice is insignificant to a mass market. If the demand is a few hundred a week 16,000 coins just won't last. The attrition on these is probably significant. All we have are a few mint sets and most of the coins in them are tarnished with many ruined. '69 quarters do not clean up real well and were among the first to go bad.
Virtually every single eagle reverse clad quarter in existence came from a mint set. If they were cut out in time they are probably still good. Ask your local dealer for a few rolls of these and note his expression. He won't have one in the entire shop and odds are good that if he ever did it walked right into his cash register to make change.
People seemed to think coins saved themselves but it takes a collector to save them. And people were not saving them as the mint sets were consumed for the other denominations.
@SanctionII said:
This thread caused me to retrieve my Whitman and Dansco albums containing clad quarters I have accumulated since 1965.
Some of them are MS coins that are lusterous, with minimal flaws. The best ones are very eye appealing.
Very nice coins to have as part of my collection.
However, I suspect that they would not be of interest to many, if not most collectors above 40 years of age.
A dealer once let me have a vast horde of circulated quarters that were mostly set aside before 1977. The individual set aside only better dates and higher condition. It was one of the most remarkable accumulations of anything I've ever seen. Unfortunately since it was only face value I deposited almost all of it into the bank. I pulled out only a few items of interest.
I think in the future a great deal more attention will be paid to non-mint set coins. It might take many years but something like a 1969 quarter in AU-58 is a scarcity today and some could be quite attractive. Uncs and other coins are always going to be of interest to me because every coin has a story to tell.
I'm not sure what coins are good. What years are bad? What the future price point is supposed to be? How we know the attrition rate so accurately?
They're all good. Some are much better than others. Some are common even in MS-65 and some aren't common even in MS-60. They are each different in each grade.
@SanctionII's post reminds me that lots of these really should carry a premium even in VF. Collectors know this and there are often some for sale on eBay but of course the price guides ignore it.
Try finding a nice attractive 1970 quarter in F from any source at all. It might be an eye opener for you.
But that also means YOUR visibility on these coins is NOT good. It is very hard to know what is in everyone's change jar and whitman albums.
I've been watching these for 56 years and I know what's out there. There is nowhere a mountain can be hiding. I peek into every dark corner looking for bits of it and I spent years watching it erode away.
There is some small probability that a higher percentage of dismantled sets were saved than I believe but many of these coins were saved in the cello so are bad now. I do believe only about 20% of the quarters were saved and the number could be higher. But the sets are still gone and coins in the packaging are still bad.
Sounds to me like you are (once again) assuming your personal experience is representative.
Wondercoin's observations are least as representative as yours and he has partially contradicted you. He has stated in this thread that he has a "large supply" of this coinage in better grades (yes, a "hoard") sitting unsearched in SDB and also stated he knows a few others who have it too.
It doesn't matter where the supply originates or if from mint sets intact, in rolls, in albums, or in someone's "change jar". What's relevant is first, if the coins still exist in the quality most collectors will accept. And second, the price which influences or determines the available supply. Whatever supply actually exists, the current relatively low price reduces the potential supply.
There is some small probability that a higher percentage of dismantled sets were saved than I believe but many of these coins were saved in the cello so are bad now. I do believe only about 20% of the quarters were saved and the number could be higher. But the sets are still gone and coins in the packaging are still bad.
Sounds to me like you are (once again) assuming your personal experience is representative.
I've been all over the country chasing the coins and talking to dealers and collectors for half a century.
I have never said any regular issue clad quarter is rare in chBU. I have said countless times that in top grades they are rare but this is not the subject of this thread. The subject of this thread concerns the availability or lack thereof for the mundane issues in nice choice lustrous uncirculated condition. None of these is scarce or rare but few of them exist in the kind of quantity necessary for a mass market. People have the idea that there are bags and bags of old quarters lying about among the two million mint sets made every year. I am telling you point blank this isn't true. The bags were never saved and the mint sets are gone. I know this for a fact. My estimates could be off but I bet they are pretty conservative. I usually have far higher estimates of surviving coins than almost anyone else.
I know for a fact millions of quarters were saved in the mint set plastic and these will likely constitute much of the supply going forward. Existing mint sets will constitute most of the rest. But even ion aggregate there just aren't enough to supply a mass market because there are dozens of dates and some are very tough. Then the coins still in the plastic are often destroyed.
Wondercoin's observations are least as representative as yours and he has partially contradicted you. He has stated in this thread that he has a "large supply" of this coinage in better grades (yes, a "hoard") sitting unsearched in SDB and also stated he knows a few others who have it too.
@Wondercoin is exactly right as is so often the case but he is perhaps the largest collector and dealer of high grade moderns and he knows that finding "pop tops" are "like finding a needle in a haystack". He's not looking or paying a lot of attention to chBU and if I recall he was not very active until the early '80's. To me the market was long in the tooth before he started. I've been watching these coins since Thanksgiving of 1965 when I saw my first one and collecting them since 1972. Wondercoin doesn't specialize in quarters, but more in Gems and especially modern Gems. Obviously he knows pop top and clad quarters. Nobody knows more about Gems and high grade moderns, probably. I can tell you their incidence and he can tell you their value. I can even tell you how many of them were distributed but they are gone now and the information will do you almost no good.
It doesn't matter where the supply originates or if from mint sets intact, in rolls, in albums, or in someone's "change jar".
This is absolutely wrong. Not only does it matter but there are NO rolls anyway. Coins made for circulation looked like garbage so no one saved them. The few that were saved anyway still look like garbage and are often tarnished. There are no Gems in change jars and no chBU eagle reverse quarters. I'd wager there aren't a few dozen in the entire country and most of them were recently cut out of a mint set. They are not going to e intercepted before circulation grinds them down because there are too few collectors to spot it in time.
What's relevant is first, if the coins still exist in the quality most collectors will accept. And second, the price which influences or determines the available supply. Whatever supply actually exists, the current relatively low price reduces the potential supply.
These markets are mostly impervious to price changes. Unless there is a spike higher it won't even have much effect on the percentage being saved from cut up mint sets. Even with a spike higher tarnished coins are not going to be cleaned or saved. This is the point of the thread. Even if prices of clad quarters were to go up today there are not enough of the coins for a mass market. Right now this very minute prices are sharply higher for the very source of these coins and they are still not being saved. Higher prices will bring out a lot of the few surviving sets so a significant portion of all the raw moderns are about to be lost because there is no market. Even "popular" moderns such as the Ikes are a tiny niche market because there are no coin shops that stock them raw or slabbed but the far less popular quarters are simply gone.
Higher prices on mint sets marks the end of raw moderns. Nobody will go out and buy 250 1969 mint sets in a few years to get a Gem because the sets won't be available with even a little competition. The sets are already gone and they aren't coming back with nice pristine coins in them. The ship has sailed.
Scarcity of itself will not create demand but the number of quarter collectors has been growing for years and a massive drawdown of remaining supply is just going to show how few coins exist.
“He's not looking or paying a lot of attention to chBU and if I recall he was not very active until the early '80's”.
This is totally true. Of course, I have a lot of chBU coins simply because I got “stuck with them”. For example, one time I bought a mint sewn bag of 1978-P Ike dollars. I screened the bag and literally found just a handful or two of gemmy MS65/66 coins out of 1,000 coins. Most of the coins were BU to chBU. I put 980 coins in tubes and sold a roll here and a roll there along the way. Perhaps I still have 500+ of these chBU still in the tubes. What a waste of $1100 or $1200 for 25 years! I would have done better putting the money with grandma into a CD for that period! It’s not because I am a genius that I am sitting on these (500) chBU 1978 Ikes!
Ditto for nearly every 1970-D 50C I ever bought. Hunted and hunted for an MS67 coin. Finally graded one in 25+ years of hunting (for my registry set) along with many 66 grade coins. But, nearly all these hundreds and hundreds of coins are only chBU quality. I was too busy at the time to figure out how to unload all these chBU coins so now I have a small “hoard”. Again, not sure I will ever make a penny (net) when I sell these hundreds and hundreds (and hundreds) of 70-D 50C. Certainly not from the standpoint of lost interest on the money for the past 25 years or outperforming the S&P.
I have countless stories of the “thrill of success” and the “agony of defeat” hunting down these 1965-date “sleeper” clad coins. Easier to write some of the stories down here, as certainly a book on the subject wouldn’t sell too many copies!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
“He's not looking or paying a lot of attention to chBU and if I recall he was not very active until the early '80's”.
This is totally true. Of course, I have a lot of chBU coins simply because I got “stuck with them”. For example, one time I bought a mint sewn bag of 1978-P Ike dollars. I screened the bag and literally found just a handful or two of gemmy MS65/66 coins out of 1,000 coins. Most of the coins were BU to chBU. I put 980 coins in tubes and sold a roll here and a roll there along the way. Perhaps I still have 500+ of these chBU still in the tubes. What a waste of $1100 or $1200 for 25 years! I would have done better putting the money with grandma into a CD for that period! It’s not because I am a genius that I am sitting on these (500) chBU 1978 Ikes!
Ditto for nearly every 1970-D 50C I ever bought. Hunted and hunted for an MS67 coin. Finally graded one in 25+ years of hunting (for my registry set) along with many 66 grade coins. But, nearly all these hundreds and hundreds of coins are only chBU quality. I was too busy at the time to figure out how to unload all these chBU coins so now I have a small “hoard”. Again, not sure I will ever make a penny (net) when I sell these hundreds and hundreds (and hundreds) of 70-D 50C. Certainly not from the standpoint of lost interest on the money for the past 25 years or outperforming the S&P.
I have countless stories of the “thrill of success” and the “agony of defeat” hunting down these 1965-date “sleeper” clad coins. Easier to write some of the stories down here, as certainly a book on the subject wouldn’t sell too many copies!
Wondercoin
Add a femme Fatale and a heist, and you'll hit the bestseller list.
“Add a femme Fatale and a heist, and you'll hit the bestseller list.”
Couldn’t you see it now- instead of the “Italian Job”, we could name it the “Denver Job”. The plan to get the incredible final large stash of 1970-D 50C including the hiring of movie extras and a team of homeless skilled men and woman as part of the plot. Jmlanzaf- send me a first draft before the Summer is over. I’ll pitch the idea to my friends over at Paramount Pictures!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
“Add a femme Fatale and a heist, and you'll hit the bestseller list.”
Couldn’t you see it now- instead of the “Italian Job”, we could name it the “Denver Job”. The plan to get the incredible final large stash of 1970-D 50C including the hiring of movie extras and a team of homeless skilled men and woman as part of the plot. Jmlanzaf- send me a first draft before the Summer is over. I’ll pitch the idea to my friends over at Paramount Pictures!
Wondercoin
Imagine the logistics of it. In the Italian job, they stole a giant safe full of gold. If you replace that with BU rolls of Kennedy halves, you would have to move a trainload of material!!!!
Maybe we should set it in the future. The year is 2321. Dystopian USA. A foreign invasion led to the downfall of the U.S. and The Great Melt of 2071 destroyed all U.S. coinage as part of a cultural purge.
The Wondercoin hoard has been the stuff of legends. Treasure hunters have been searching for it for over 100 years after the re-establishment of a New USA when rising seas and a century of war led to the collapse of the invaders and the death of billions.
An accidental discovery of what appears to be a text from Mitch to his daughter in 2050 gives a clue to the location of the hoard. A small group of 6 treasure hunters takes the clue and starts the search. But one greedy treasure hunter, Jessup, breaks off and tries to form his own little group of mercenaries to keep the treasure for himself.
In a dramatic and bloody break-up of the original 6, Lauren is killed. Jessup leaves the other four, wounded but alive in the Sierras. Lauren was engaged to Paul, another of the six. Her sister Marnie was also one of the six.
Jessup gets to the treasure first but the Fab Four are right behind them. Fortunately for them, it is taking Jessup weeks to haul the boxes of clad out of the cave in the mountains.
Eventually, Jessup is defeated.
The Wondercoin Hoard is so massive that it swamps the market and makes the coins nearly valueless (again).
Marnie and Paul fall in love despite struggling with guilt over Lauren's death.
Poorer but wiser, they live happily ever after in a mountain home built of clad coins.
@WCC said:
Sounds to me like you are (once again) assuming your personal experience is representative.
I've been all over the country chasing the coins and talking to dealers and collectors for half a century.
I'll grant you your experience is more representative than almost everyone else with US moderns, though absolutely less than wondercoin. Certainly a lot more than with world "moderns" where it isn't representative at all.
@cladking said:
I have never said any regular issue clad quarter is rare in chBU. I have said countless times that in top grades they are rare but this is not the subject of this thread. The subject of this thread concerns the availability or lack thereof for the mundane issues in nice choice lustrous uncirculated condition. None of these is scarce or rare but few of them exist in the kind of quantity necessary for a mass market.
Wondercoin said he had a lot of US modern rolls in a SDB or vault. He didn't say how much and while I understood it's far more 1933-1964, still a lot of clad too. If I am wrong, he can correct me by replying himself.
The primary point I was trying to make is that whatever supply actually exists isn't likely as low as you claim or imply. I didn't claim it was millions.
In the 1970's, a hoard of 1856 Flying Eagle cents was disbursed, somewhere in the hundreds or a noticeable proportion of the currently known supply. More recently, one or more gem/BU rolls of the 1912 S or D LHN. (Neither are rare in MS-65 or MS-66.) Same is true or probably true of many world coins with high counts in the TPG populations: 1754 Mexico 8R, 1774 Bolivia 8R, 1821 Guatemala 1/4R, 1817 Chile 1/4R, 1861 Mo Mexico 2R...for starters.
So yes, if there are hoards of these coins, obviously it's reasonable to expect there are far more hoards and larger ones in at least equivalent TPG grades for US moderns. All of the coins I listed were high grade up to "gem"
It doesn't matter where the supply originates or if from mint sets intact, in rolls, in albums, or in someone's "change jar".
This is absolutely wrong. Not only does it matter but there are NO rolls anyway. Coins made for circulation looked like garbage so no one saved them. The few that were saved anyway still look like garbage and are often tarnished.
My comments about Mint sets were intended to state that it doesn't matter if the set is intact or not. What matters is if the coins survive.
>
There are no Gems in change jars and no chBU eagle reverse quarters. I'd wager there aren't a few dozen in the entire country and most of them were recently cut out of a mint set. They are not going to e intercepted before circulation grinds them down because there are too few collectors to spot it in time.
I am using "change jar" as a general term. It can be literal...or not. I have a few "change jars" of world "moderns" from my father's travels and the coins store just fine under proper climate conditions, as in the condition I originally received it for the most part. I am also not talking about "gems" and never even said anything about it.
Regardless, you are in no position to know what millions of individuals did or did not do. No can claim it, given that the coins we are discussing were struck and could have been pulled from circulation within the lifetiime of many just reading these posts. People save all kinds of things and forget about it. I have a partially complete Whitman folder of clad quarters, somewhere in storage. Not gems, but definitely meeting the quality criteria you are describing now.
Thank you WCC (and others) for attempting to flesh out the very complex discussion we are having here concerning US modern coins. First, I want set out what I believe to be the difference between CK’s opinions and predictions regarding United States modern coins (1965-date) and mine. And please correct me if I am wrong here on anything CK.
CK wore out many a pair of shoes traveling the United States on the hunt for modern clad coins in the late 1960’s, 1970s and early 1980’s. He was a pioneer in the field for this type of material. He discovered a great many things related to clad coinage on his travels throughout these years.
It is now more than (40) years later. He has seen where many of those early discoveries and findings of his have gone. Some have taken a path he fully expected would happen and some have taken a different path. CK reports to us now this history of clad coinage through the lens of his personal experience. It is a remarkable story and one we have barely touched on. For example, I want to hear more about his experiences going into campgrounds, small towns, etc. on the hunt for clad coins in the 1970’s.
My experience with clad coins essentially began in 1983/84. Before that, my experience began with collecting US coins in general in 1965 (as a small kid) and centered around the hunt for silver coins. In the mid-70s through 1983, I was busy with college and graduate school. Coin collecting needed to be put on hold entirely. But, after completing graduate school, I moved out to Los Angeles in 1983, started a job and discovered the Long Beach coin show.
I was very much interested at that time in the silver modern coin series and started collecting the nicest silver Washington quarters, Franklin 50C and Roosevelt Dimes I could find, along with Lincoln cents and Jefferson nickels. For many years, I pursued the 1947-1964 Mint sets, especially chasing down nicely toned sets through 1958. I collected many other things back then as well, including some Morgan and Peace dollars, pattern cents and Indian cents. But, I was drawn to the modern silver series of coins that were still readily available at the shows for low prices - those 1932 to date coins (excluding Walkers that I thought were relatively overpriced as compared to the other coins I was pursuing).
How I got hooked on clad coins big time was an unusual circumstance. I ended up buying a huge amount of mint sewn SBA $1 bags for near face value from 1979 and 1980. I personally went through every single coin looking for the nicest specimens I could find. And, I could not believe how beat up the coins were and just how impossible it was to find superb gem coins.
I put every gem and better coin I could find in tubes (that I have to this day) and the superb gem coins in a tiny box in flips. Literally, after finishing maybe 10,000 coins (and 6 different mintmarks and dates), I had just 12 or 15 coins in my superb gem box! I knew at this point these coins were very scarce in super high grade and my hunt for them had just begun.
Next, I needed to buy hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of 1981 mint sets to put aside superb gem examples of those (3) mintmarks as well. It became a near impossible task in the case of the S mint coin, which resulted in me buying hundreds and hundreds more sets on the never-ending search for the 81-S in superb gem condition.
And, of course, I also decided at this time to collect all Mint State and proof Ike dollars as well, both clad and silver, and especially the highest grade mint state coins I could locate. These hunts expanded into the niche market of trying to locate proof-like Mint State coins as well (in all series from 1932), as they were near impossible to find with the exception of 1971-74 Silver Ikes which were a little easier to find at that time.
The clad hunts expanded into 1965-date Roosies, Washington quarters, Kennedy 50C, etc. and I was hooked at this point. But, again, I was hooked entirely on the pursuit of condition rarities, not the number of Choice BU coins that existed out there. For example, when I discovered that 1969 and 1971 P mint quarters were near impossible to find in superb gem (something CK knew already as well as the fact that nice Choice BU coins were even very difficult to locate), my attention was shifted to searching every dealer’s table for super examples in their 2x2’s they brought to the show. I passed up buying MS63 to MS64+ coins. I wanted only gems.
My clad pursuits then expanded to MS state quarters, National Park quarters, Sacagawea dollars, Presidential dollars, 50C clad Commems, etc., etc. Again, with a near 100% focus on condition rarities. We could discuss each of these coin series in 500 post threads if we wanted to, but I’m not sure anyone wants to. So I will stop here for now.
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
For whatever it's worth (and I don't think it's worth very much) this thread has inspired me to set up a saved search on GreatCollections for Washington quarters 1965-1998 PCGS MS 67-70.
I make my assessments on a variety of factors. But in my last post, I was using examples of much older coins with much lower mintages in geographically isolated locations with little if any collecting at the time. These aren't unusual either, as evidenced by ancient coinage and medieval English.
The 1821 Guatemala 1/4R has 296 graded MS-65 or better, with 111 MS-66 and 14 MS-67. The lopsided proportion showed up in the data either last year or late 2019. Heritage has been selling multiples in their weekly auctions for months. I bought an MS-66 about 15 years ago when it was believed to be much scarcer (though still one of the most common for the type) and these are well made, better than clad quarters from what I have seen. But it's a 200 year old coin, with a likely mintage of maybe at most 500,000 and there was (and is) no organized collecting in Guatemala.
So yes, there are potentially more better quality survivors of this coin than say, a 1971-P quarter due to different grading standards. But as a general principle, if there are 125 in MS-66 and MS-67 now, it's far more believable to expect that the supply which actually exists for any clad quarter in some particular TPG eligible grade is a (very) large multiple of what is visible to any individual, no matter how close or how long they have looked.
This is why I have disagreed with CK's estimates, not just here but when discussing the world coinage he describes as "modern". I directionally agree with him (and you) on the highest eligible TPG grades, but that's due to "positive selection bias" since an economic motivation exists to find these coins. Concurrently, the opposite also applies where the better coins in somewhat lower quality (MS-66 and below) were also removed from circulation or mint sets a long time ago and either still held by collectors now or someone else. No one else is likely to see it because it isn't worth selling, so it just "sits" there.
Previously, South Africa Union was my primary series. It's disproportionately scarce for 20th century coinage. But when I used to communicate with collectors in that country, they would make the same mistake CK does by assuming their personal observations were representative. The coins are still scarce, but mostly only in better (MS) grades. but since they prefer TPG, the counts have increased noticeably for most, though usually only proportionately.
@wondercoin said:
Thank you WCC (and others) for attempting to flesh out the very complex discussion we are having here concerning US modern coins. First, I want set out what I believe to be the difference between CK’s opinions and predictions regarding United States modern coins (1965-date) and mine. And please correct me if I am wrong here on anything CK.
CK wore out many a pair of shoes traveling the United States on the hunt for modern clad coins in the late 1960’s, 1970s and early 1980’s. He was a pioneer in the field for this type of material. He discovered a great many things related to clad coinage on his travels throughout these years.
It is now more than (40) years later. He has seen where many of those early discoveries and findings of his have gone. Some have taken a path he fully expected would happen and some have taken a different path. CK reports to us now this history of clad coinage through the lens of his personal experience. It is a remarkable story and one we have barely touched on. For example, I want to hear more about his experiences going into campgrounds, small towns, etc. on the hunt for clad coins in the 1970’s.
My experience with clad coins essentially began in 1983/84. Before that, my experience began with collecting US coins in general in 1965 (as a small kid) and centered around the hunt for silver coins. In the mid-70s through 1983, I was busy with college and graduate school. Coin collecting needed to be put on hold entirely. But, after completing graduate school, I moved out to Los Angeles in 1983, started a job and discovered the Long Beach coin show.
I was very much interested at that time in the silver modern coin series and started collecting the nicest silver Washington quarters, Franklin 50C and Roosevelt Dimes I could find, along with Lincoln cents and Jefferson nickels. For many years, I pursued the 1947-1964 Mint sets, especially chasing down nicely toned sets through 1958. I collected many other things back then as well, including some Morgan and Peace dollars, pattern cents and Indian cents. But, I was drawn to the modern silver series of coins that were still readily available at the shows for low prices - those 1932 to date coins (excluding Walkers that I thought were relatively overpriced as compared to the other coins I was pursuing).
How I got hooked on clad coins big time was an unusual circumstance. I ended up buying a huge amount of mint sewn SBA $1 bags for near face value from 1979 and 1980. I personally went through every single coin looking for the nicest specimens I could find. And, I could not believe how beat up the coins were and just how impossible it was to find superb gem coins.
I put every gem and better coin I could find in tubes (that I have to this day) and the superb gem coins in a tiny box in flips. Literally, after finishing maybe 10,000 coins (and 6 different mintmarks and dates), I had just 12 or 15 coins in my superb gem box! I knew at this point these coins were very scarce in super high grade and my hunt for them had just begun.
Next, I needed to buy hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of 1981 mint sets to put aside superb gem examples of those (3) mintmarks as well. It became a near impossible task in the case of the S mint coin, which resulted in me buying hundreds and hundreds more sets on the never-ending search for the 81-S in superb gem condition.
And, of course, I also decided at this time to collect all Mint State and proof Ike dollars as well, both clad and silver, and especially the highest grade mint state coins I could locate. These hunts expanded into the niche market of trying to locate proof-like Mint State coins as well (in all series from 1932), as they were near impossible to find with the exception of 1971-74 Silver Ikes which were a little easier to find at that time.
The clad hunts expanded into 1965-date Roosies, Washington quarters, Kennedy 50C, etc. and I was hooked at this point. But, again, I was hooked entirely on the pursuit of condition rarities, not the number of Choice BU coins that existed out there. For example, when I discovered that 1969 and 1971 P mint quarters were near impossible to find in superb gem (something CK knew already as well as the fact that nice Choice BU coins were even very difficult to locate), my attention was shifted to searching every dealer’s table for super examples in their 2x2’s they brought to the show. I passed up buying MS63 to MS64+ coins. I wanted only gems.
My clad pursuits then expanded to MS state quarters, National Park quarters, Sacagawea dollars, Presidential dollars, 50C clad Commems, etc., etc. Again, with a near 100% focus on condition rarities. We could discuss each of these coin series in 500 post threads if we wanted to, but I’m not sure anyone wants to. So I will stop here for now.
Interesting post. Thanks. I didn't buy many sets especially in those early days but rather spent a lot of time in coin shops looking through stacks and stacks of them. Truth to tell I didn't know they had even made Gem Ikes until 1978 when I saw my very first one in a recent mint set. I found a few Gem '81-S SBA's but there might not even be one for your "superb Gem" box (I'm still looking).
With quarters I rarely found any in rolls and bags so concentrated on mint sets where it was like shooting fish in a barrel. Rolls and bags were a little better in the '80's and '90's.
I suppose it was the early years of clads that created my estimation of value in Gems. In those days almost every coin made for circulation had serious production deficits. The coins were so ugly you might not notice that it wasn't scratched at all. Over the years as production qualities improved I never noticed that clean coins were so much prettier than those with little nicks. It's hard to tell today but 1966 quarters were for most practical purposes made in VG condition. Dies were spaced far apart and tonnage was at a minimum. Then dies were used until they were almost flat. Most brand new specimens had the lettering merged right into the rim on the reverse. Now days they're all worn out too. Many have apparently been removed by the FED as underweight. About 40% remain and it actually seems they look better today than in 1966 but of course they are each and all worn today and most covered with little scratches. A full third of these survivors are culls.
I saved coins all the way down to MS-63 for better dates and gemmy MS-64 for common dates. This estimation was based on relative availability.
These differences probably account for most of our different perspectives.
I always tried to talk to shop owners and tried to visit the wholesalers to see exactly what was happening. It was a change in FED accounting that really set this whole thing in motion. In 1972 it was very common to get rolls of early clad in BU condition from the bank. '65 and '69-D quarters were still being issued by the Fed in this area and I assumed other dates were available in other districts. Indeed, I could see nice new Uncs of other dates in my travels. But then the FED switched to FIFO accounting which mandated they rotate their stocks. This, of course, had the effect of making sure all the coins wore out evenly. If there were such thing as an AU '69 quarter in circulation it would be because its total time in storage or a change jar was nearly 50 years. The odds of this is nearly zero so there are none. If you did find one anyway which is quite possible then it's a safe bet it came from a mint set or collection. Odds are in either case it would be an ugly coin and still have a little mint set tarnish. Nobody had old rolls of any date though I was able to pick up a few over the years and passed on many more because they were too high priced and I was confident the cons were ugly. My rolls came from banks in the years of issue and only the nice coins were saved.
Dimes are much more common than quarters but I believe these are going to surprise people some day because the "extra" ones saved are generally poor quality. There will not be so many more Gems and in some dates there may actually be fewer.
"So yes, there are potentially more better quality survivors of this coin than say, a 1971-P quarter due to different grading standards. But as a general principle, if there are 125 in MS-66 and MS-67 now, it's far more believable to expect that the supply which actually exists for any clad quarter in some particular TPG eligible grade is a (very) large multiple of what is visible to any individual, no matter how close or how long they have looked."
There's a "tyranny" of numbers at play here.
We know for a fact that many (most really) of these coins were very lightly saved and there was no mad rush of collectors out there seeking Gems. So how can there be lots of something like 1983 quarters when only 1 coin in 500 was a nice Gem as issued by the mint? Only about 100,000 were saved meaning there would be only a couple hundred Gems if the ones saved are a good sample of what was made.
It is certainly true that almost anyone is more likely to set aside a beautiful roll of Gems than some ugly typical roll. I have no clue exactly how this will affect the availability of the date.
For many years back in the mid-90's I advertised to pay $40 each for any Gem '82 or '83 quarter. I figured many people would be willing to check their rolls for this kind of money. I only received a handful of coins and none of them were the '83-P. There simply is no "mass supply" for any clad quarter even in lowly MS-65. Indeed, there is no "mass supply" even in MS-63 where much of demand would focus. If a mass market were to develop there is simply insufficient supply. Of course, you say "so what?" but the number of collectors has been doubling every few years and at the exact same time the last of the raw moderns are being consumed to make Ike rolls.
@cladking said: "So yes, there are potentially more better quality survivors of this coin than say, a 1971-P quarter due to different grading standards. But as a general principle, if there are 125 in MS-66 and MS-67 now, it's far more believable to expect that the supply which actually exists for any clad quarter in some particular TPG eligible grade is a (very) large multiple of what is visible to any individual, no matter how close or how long they have looked."
There's a "tyranny" of numbers at play here.
We know for a fact that many (most really) of these coins were very lightly saved and there was no mad rush of collectors out there seeking Gems. So how can there be lots of something like 1983 quarters when only 1 coin in 500 was a nice Gem as issued by the mint? Only about 100,000 were saved meaning there would be only a couple hundred Gems if the ones saved are a good sample of what was made.
It is certainly true that almost anyone is more likely to set aside a beautiful roll of Gems than some ugly typical roll. I have no clue exactly how this will affect the availability of the date.
For many years back in the mid-90's I advertised to pay $40 each for any Gem '82 or '83 quarter. I figured many people would be willing to check their rolls for this kind of money. I only received a handful of coins and none of them were the '83-P. There simply is no "mass supply" for any clad quarter even in lowly MS-65. Indeed, there is no "mass supply" even in MS-63 where much of demand would focus. If a mass market were to develop there is simply insufficient supply. Of course, you say "so what?" but the number of collectors has been doubling every few years and at the exact same time the last of the raw moderns are being consumed to make Ike rolls.
Talk about a tyranny of numbers...
Where does the 100,000 number come from?
On what do we base the number of collectors has been doubling every few years? I do not see exponential growth in collectors of 1965-1998 quarters.
1983 quarters might be an exception due to lack of mint sets.
If there are 500,000 1984 Mint sets still floating around, how many gemmy 64 and up coins are there? @WCC is making the point (I believe) that the lack of an economic incentive to slab 64s and 65s makes it hard to assess the remaining population. I don't think it is reasonable to assume that there aren't significantly more gemmy coins than current pops suggest.
@cladking said: "So yes, there are potentially more better quality survivors of this coin than say, a 1971-P quarter due to different grading standards. But as a general principle, if there are 125 in MS-66 and MS-67 now, it's far more believable to expect that the supply which actually exists for any clad quarter in some particular TPG eligible grade is a (very) large multiple of what is visible to any individual, no matter how close or how long they have looked."
There's a "tyranny" of numbers at play here.
We know for a fact that many (most really) of these coins were very lightly saved and there was no mad rush of collectors out there seeking Gems. So how can there be lots of something like 1983 quarters when only 1 coin in 500 was a nice Gem as issued by the mint? Only about 100,000 were saved meaning there would be only a couple hundred Gems if the ones saved are a good sample of what was made.
It is certainly true that almost anyone is more likely to set aside a beautiful roll of Gems than some ugly typical roll. I have no clue exactly how this will affect the availability of the date.
This is another example of how you ignore logic and common sense by placing more reliance on your personal experience. That is, even when you aren't just making it up as you did here with your 100,000 estimate. There is a difference between your definition of "lightly saved" and reality, whatever the actual number is in a particular quality.
The true "tyranny of numbers" are the facts I presented in my post to wondercoin.
1821 Guatemala 1/4R: 200 year old coin, not available to pull from circulation by anyone alive today or anything close to it, maybe 500,000 mintage, no local organized collecting, limited travel and communication. 125 MS-66 and MS-67 graded with likely no duplicates.
1983 quarter: 38 year old coin, available to be pulled from circulation by many members just on this forum, 500MM mintage, several million US collectors then and now
For many years back in the mid-90's I advertised to pay $40 each for any Gem '82 or '83 quarter. I figured many people would be willing to check their rolls for this kind of money. I only received a handful of coins and none of them were the '83-P. There simply is no "mass supply" for any clad quarter even in lowly MS-65. Indeed, there is no "mass supply" even in MS-63 where much of demand would focus. If a mass market were to develop there is simply insufficient supply. Of course, you say "so what?" but the number of collectors has been doubling every few years and at the exact same time the last of the raw moderns are being consumed to make Ike rolls.
Yes, you told me that before. It doesn't change my conclusion, as it's another example of your unrepresentative personal experience. What makes you think that hardly any of the relatively few who bought the publication where your add was placed bothered to read it? Most adds are buried in fine print at the back and no none knows how many see it.
For the 1983, currently 464 graded MS-66 or better by PCGS with an almost certain low proportion of duplicates and some additional from NGC which will cross to an MS-66. This coin is easily an R-1 in MS-66 or better with over 1250, likely some small multiple if not more. Not like it's worth that much in MS-66 where there is that much of an incentive to grade it.
In MS-65, some multiple of 1250, a noticeable one as in not small. 724 graded by PCGS now plus some more from NGC.
For MS-63 or MS-64, it depends upon your definition of "mass market". If you claim 500,000 future collectors as you did in a prior NGC thread, I'm not claiming it for the 1983 specifically but it's definitely possible for some or many dates. For the 1983, I think it could be more than the 100,000 you stated here but this is an inference.
If there are 500,000 1984 Mint sets still floating around, how many gemmy 64 and up coins are there? @WCC is making the point (I believe) that the lack of an economic incentive to slab 64s and 65s makes it hard to assess the remaining population. I don't think it is reasonable to assume that there aren't significantly more gemmy coins than current pops suggest.
Yes, but also see my prior post on other known hoards.
It defies common sense to believe that when many far older coins with the characteristics I listed have the currently known supply that any coin like a US clad quarter has the relative scarcity CK claims.
@Zoins said:
It's pretty incredible this thread is up to 5.7K views. I've been missing out!
No. It's only the obsessives who read it and I can't explain why I have since I have minus zero interest in moderns. Some of us are irrational (including a poster in this thread )
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
@Zoins said:
It's pretty incredible this thread is up to 5.7K views. I've been missing out!
No. It's only the obsessives who read it and I can't explain why I have since I have minus zero interest in moderns. Some of us are irrational (including a poster in this thread )
Me too, but I am actually interested in the psychology motivating collectors. Not a psychologist but it's actually a lot more interesting than most coins to me.
For all the pushback I give @cladking , I do respect that he has the courage to state his views and defend it, even if I usually disagree with him. Don't think I have told him that but stating it now. It's not easy to do.
The days of raws and moderns laugh and run away like a child at play
Through the meadow land toward a closing door
A door marked "nevermore" that wasn't there before
The lonely night discloses just a passing breeze filled with memories
Of the golden smile that introduced me to
The days of raws and moderns and you
Jmlanzaf: If it’s dystopian America, how is there any intrinsic value for the clad coinage? What's the treasure hunters’ motivation? Where would the market demand come from in dystopian USA?
Wondercoin
Edited to add… in the current Braddick thread, it is truly amazing to see how many collectors on the US Coin Forum would never collect clad coinage.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
“The year is 2321. Dystopian USA”
Jmlanzaf: If it’s dystopian America, how is there any intrinsic value for the clad coinage? What's the treasure hunters’ motivation? Where would the market demand come from in dystopian USA?
Wondercoin
Edited to add… in the current Braddick thread, it is truly amazing to see how many collectors on the US Coin Forum would never collect clad coinage.
Well, it started out a a return from dystopia. But, if you read to the end, it all ended up being worthless anyway. Lol
Plot option 2: the treasure hunters think the Wondercoin hoard is gold. When they find it, it turns out to be 30 million clad mint sets and 20 metric tons of state quarters and they all commit suicide.
@wondercoin said:
“The year is 2321. Dystopian USA”
Jmlanzaf: If it’s dystopian America, how is there any intrinsic value for the clad coinage? What's the treasure hunters’ motivation? Where would the market demand come from in dystopian USA?
Wondercoin
Edited to add… in the current Braddick thread, it is truly amazing to see how many collectors on the US Coin Forum would never collect clad coinage.
By the way, in terms of the Braddick thread, except for one gold hater, one Morgan hater and one Barber hater, it seems like all the hates consisted of clad coins, nickel coins, and copper coins. It may be coincidental with moderns but it does seem like a composition bias.
I mean, there was a lot of hatred for 3 cent nickels but not 3 cent silvers. Virtually every nickel series except Buffs were mentioned.
It makes me wonder what the market would say if, for example, the Mint struck something like Pan Pac octagonal using original dies but copper nickel planchets. Would anyone buy them?
Clad coins would make excellent raw material for manufacturer of tools, edged and projectile weapons, cooking and eating utensils, arts and crafts, and many other useful purposes.
Edited to add… in the current Braddick thread, it is truly amazing to see how many collectors on the US Coin Forum would never collect clad coinage.
A lot of people just wouldn't say they'd never collect clad.
And one mightta just said it to get a rise out of someone.
To each his own but the fact is that most collectors at best have no interest in clad and many hate it. I doubt anyone hates it quite as much as I did in 1965 though. They simply see the coins and (or the metal) as vulgar, common, and ugly.
But collectors of the last three generations have gone through a sort of screening process that tend to eliminate those who like moderns. This screening is still ongoing but becoming increasingly less relevant because of the internet. It's possible to collect clads for a while now before someone tells you they are just junk and distressingly common. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder just like "junk" and they sure aren't so common any longer.
@Baley said:
Clad coins would make excellent raw material for manufacturer of tools, edged and projectile weapons, cooking and eating utensils, arts and crafts, and many other useful purposes.
I got excited today when I received a quarter back in change that was BU, and appeared from '70's. I saw a 1 towards end of date and thought a 1971, and put it in my other pocket to keep safe. Turned out to be a 2021 Washington's crossing! Neat to see the old design. I believe a lot of my collecting habits have gone through an attrition as well. I grew up during clad era, was more vigilant and wanting the silver dime, or, quarter back in change, and didn't care much for clad, yet, I was happy as I would have been finding a silver coin in change back in the early '90's, as I was today with the mystery coin that turned out to be a 2021. It takes time for collecting preferences, paradigms, or, prejudices to change when you grew up, and into a time when clad was c***. I do have a greater appreciation for clad than I did in the mid 80's through '90's, yet, any certainty resides with the future collecting base, and what they see as worthwhile to collect. Honestly, I don't see in my area, an interest in coins with the younger generations in general. This concerns me more so with the health of the hobby, as to who will carry the torch to gripe about series, TPG's, stickers, and even Clad 20-30 years from now.
It makes me wonder what the market would say if, for example, the Mint struck something like Pan Pac octagonal using original dies but copper nickel planchets. Would anyone buy them?
If it was a one year coin or limited series with a limited mintage, I think it would sell well. Collectors like the design and might buy it as a cheap alternative to the original. It's also large, unlike current base metal coinage.
On the other hand, if it was a recurring NCLT series even with a low mintage, I think it would sell very poorly.
If any world mint believed that striking base metal NCLT was a winning marketing strategy, they would do it. Maybe one has tried it at some point but I am not aware of it. In the aggregate, the evidence proves that they do not.
This preference isn't an accident. It originates in the general culture which collectors bring with them into collecting, even though this does not literally predict how each of us collect.
It makes me wonder what the market would say if, for example, the Mint struck something like Pan Pac octagonal using original dies but copper nickel planchets. Would anyone buy them?
If it was a one year coin or limited series with a limited mintage, I think it would sell well. Collectors like the design and might buy it as a cheap alternative to the original. It's also large, unlike current base metal coinage.
On the other hand, if it was a recurring NCLT series even with a low mintage, I think it would sell very poorly.
If any world mint believed that striking base metal NCLT was a winning marketing strategy, they would do it. Maybe one has tried it at some point but I am not aware of it. In the aggregate, the evidence proves that they do not.
This preference isn't an accident. It originates in the general culture which collectors bring with them into collecting, even though this does not literally predict how each of us collect.
It makes me wonder what the market would say if, for example, the Mint struck something like Pan Pac octagonal using original dies but copper nickel planchets. Would anyone buy them?
If it was a one year coin or limited series with a limited mintage, I think it would sell well. Collectors like the design and might buy it as a cheap alternative to the original. It's also large, unlike current base metal coinage.
On the other hand, if it was a recurring NCLT series even with a low mintage, I think it would sell very poorly.
If any world mint believed that striking base metal NCLT was a winning marketing strategy, they would do it. Maybe one has tried it at some point but I am not aware of it. In the aggregate, the evidence proves that they do not.
This preference isn't an accident. It originates in the general culture which collectors bring with them into collecting, even though this does not literally predict how each of us collect.
There is a lot of world base metal NCLT.
There's a fair amount of US base metal NCLT.
It's just inexpensive and doesn't make headlines.
Not referring to commemoratives but wasn't clear. I have never heard of a non-commemorative base metal NCLT.
On what do we base the number of collectors has been doubling every few years? I do not see exponential growth in collectors of 1965-1998 quarters.
None of my estimates are "formal" or the result of "counting" so any of them might be significantly off. This being said some are extremely accurate probably since they are based on extensive sampling. Others are more ephemeral because even the definition of terms is difficult. How do you define a "clad quarter collector"? Obviously it can't include every individual who ever purchased a folder or album for clad quarters because there are not millions of collectors. It can't include everyone who ever purchased a clad quarter for more than face value because there are tens of millions of people who have bought mint sets.
I define the collector as anyone actively seeking coins for a collection and learning about their various characteristics. I wouldn't include a collector from circulation who thinks he can't find the last coin in his collection ('68-D or '71)) because it is just bad luck. This is one of the most difficult numbers to estimate because it is necessarily based largely on anecdotal evidence and assumptions. It is based on the number of mint sets sold to the general public and the proportion of buyers who collect each denomination. It is based on the growth of registry sets and sales of folders and albums. It is also based on lots of more subtle information like how long such coins stay in dealer stock. It is based on the proportion of silver to clad quarters available on eBay. But there are thousands of sources and data points from view counters to actually talking to collectors.
The hobby is experiencing tremendous growth right now and much of it is invisible to more established collectors. It is invisible largely because it isn't pushing up the prices of mid tier coins. Much of the demand is in less traditional areas like tokens, foreign, NCLT, and ephemera. But it is spreading and we all "know" a lot of it will eventually get to VF bust half dollars and the like.
I don't really have time to do these questions justice now or to catch up but hope to find time later.
It makes me wonder what the market would say if, for example, the Mint struck something like Pan Pac octagonal using original dies but copper nickel planchets. Would anyone buy them?
If it was a one year coin or limited series with a limited mintage, I think it would sell well. Collectors like the design and might buy it as a cheap alternative to the original. It's also large, unlike current base metal coinage.
On the other hand, if it was a recurring NCLT series even with a low mintage, I think it would sell very poorly.
If any world mint believed that striking base metal NCLT was a winning marketing strategy, they would do it. Maybe one has tried it at some point but I am not aware of it. In the aggregate, the evidence proves that they do not.
This preference isn't an accident. It originates in the general culture which collectors bring with them into collecting, even though this does not literally predict how each of us collect.
There is a lot of world base metal NCLT.
There's a fair amount of US base metal NCLT.
It's just inexpensive and doesn't make headlines.
Not referring to commemoratives but wasn't clear. I have never heard of a non-commemorative base metal NCLT.
There are very few non- commemorative precious metal NCLT. You are referring to bullion coins. Of course there are no base metal bullion coins.
Most NCLT is commemorative. That's why it is so popular. People often collect themes.
Don’t feel too bad CK. If memory serves me right (and please correct me if I am off by maybe 90,000,000), the US Mint at one point in writing estimated there to be one hundred million (100,000,000) state quarter collectors! Meanwhile, 20-25 years after the program conclusion, top pops in the 25-50 range still “go begging” when offered for sale.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
“How do you define a "clad quarter collector"? “
Don’t feel too bad CK. If memory serves me right (and please correct me if I am off by maybe 90,000,000), the US Mint at one point in writing estimated there to be one hundred million (100,000,000) state quarter collectors! Meanwhile, 20-25 years after the program conclusion, top pops in the 25-50 range still “go begging” when offered for sale.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Most people are perfectly happy collecting from change. It doesn't automatically follow that one will buy top pops.
I collected SHQs from change but don't buy top pops or really any slabbed coins for these.
There are very few eagle reverse clad quarter collectors that fulfill the criteria I laid out earlier in the thread. There are so few that there isn't even a wholesale market for the coins!!! Historically these collectors have gotten their coins from circulation or much more commonly from mint sets. If mint sets aren't going to be readily available then the supply of coins in dealer inventory will disappear quite rapidly because most dealers don't keep any inventory at all or only a few in their binders.
I never suggested all of these changes are going to take place virtually overnight even though the increase in mint set prices almost have. There will simply be an increased probability that demand for 40c coins is not being met in traditional ways immediately. New ways will be found but these new supplies are simply very shallow.
Current demand is almost invisible. A few customers a year walk into a coin shop and buy a few mint sets. Some of them collect the quarters. Without mint sets they ask for BU quarters and are shown rolls of SHQ and rolls of 1955 quarters. With a little luck the dealer will have a few rolls of bicentennial quarters. When the dealer realizes the guy wants eagle reverse clad quarters he might become irate.
So some of the new demand won't even be coming from the hundreds of new clad quarter collectors every month but from a few dealers who want to stock the coins because a few customers ask about them. I have no clue how dealers are going to lay in any stock without the mint sets. There are no coins other than the mint sets available. There are no wholesalers or jobbers they can call to buy a roll set at any price. Of course a few dealers could do it with enough motivation but nobody would even try with an MS-66 '72-D at 40c. There's not even one roll set available for dealer stock!!! Julian Jarvis couldn't put together a roll set in 1981. It sure has gotten any easier.
The coins have been ignored and their collectors shunned for over half a century and now people are surprised there's no market! If mint set prices stay up or go higher then we'll start seeing the tiny market that already exists because demand is always and virtually by definition satisfied.
There are coins out there and I know where a lot of them are. The exact size of the supply is very difficult to gauge but its nature less so. The coins that were saved are generally fairly nice and most were at least chBU when they were set aside. It's even possible there are a few partial bag sets sitting in some wholesalers back rooms. Once they went to the trouble of saving these from mint sets it's quite possible that a few were never taken to the bank. Few businesses want to tie up thousands of dollars or lots of space but it's no secret that these coins are far scarcer than people believe. There are also several "accumulators" nationwide who have tried to create a market in the coins or merely set them aside for investment. A few of these could be "substantial" but anyone who thinks they have millions of coins is way off base. In aggregate they may millions of coins but they are spread out among 65 dates or more, and of course, everyone has more of the common dates.
No, the bulk of the supply is still in the surviving mint sets and still highly vulnerable to being spent or further degraded. Indeed the odds of attrition will actually increase as the sets are dismantled for halves and dollars. Some sets won't be shipped because they are in terrible shape and will be left in the plastic. The coins need to be cleaned because the longer they sit the more likely the damage is permanent.
These sets are spread far and wide and many are owned by the general public who wouldn't know the price went up and wouldn't see any further increases for years. How these have faired is not easily known but I am assuming a high attrition rate because of tarnish if nothing else. They are no longer owned by the original buyer but are those bought from HSN or Bob Vila's website. Some were bought at estate sales in recent years or from a trip to the coin shop. They are not trading hands and are more likely sitting in the back of the shirt drawer.
There are still thousands of sets coming in from the heirs of the original buyers but this is slowing to a trickle on the early sets. Many of the sets coming into coin shops are those from collectors who bought them over the years for one reason or another (often just because they were so cheap). It is this source that will be supplying the markets now. These sets are generally in good condition. A few will be held back looking for even higher prices but, I believe, most will be unloaded while the price is strong.
50 years ago if the prices doubled the demand would simply be swamped but today it's unlikely there is enough supply to satisfy even ongoing demand, much less the increases in ongoing demand. The sets are gone and what survives is unavailable or degraded.
This thread has been very informational, educational, even entertaining but most of all motivational; by the fact that I've read every post here - I'm ready take another crack at finishing Tolstoy's "War and Peace", because now I really think I can finish it!
Comments
MasonG: you forgot to say… “500”.
Wondercoin
No, this is impossible. There is a good wholesale market for rolls of zincolns that wholesale for 40c each so why no quarters? Zincolns really do exist in huge numbers. You can buy rolls and rolls of them. A lot will be bad, very bad, but there are mountains out there.
I've been watching these for 56 years and I know what's out there. There is nowhere a mountain can be hiding. I peek into every dark corner looking for bits of it and I spent years watching it erode away.
There is some small probability that a higher percentage of dismantled sets were saved than I believe but many of these coins were saved in the cello so are bad now. I do believe only about 20% of the quarters were saved and the number could be higher. But the sets are still gone and coins in the packaging are still bad.
Yes!!! Of course. Lots of coins would flow onto the market in the course of the next twenty years and it still wouldn't be nearly enough for a mass market.
Yes!!! These rolls came from mint set rolls. There are no rolls of most dates and even "common" dates are unavailable. People who wanted these coins got them from mint sets because coins made for circulation were ugly, especially in the early days. The only original rolls of '69 clad quarters I've seen since 1970 are in this thread!!! As I explained there are probably fewer than 4 bags set aside and it might be a lot fewer. More importantly most of these coins would not grade "chBU" because they were too ugly the day they were cranked out by the mint. Four bags even if they were nice is insignificant to a mass market. If the demand is a few hundred a week 16,000 coins just won't last. The attrition on these is probably significant. All we have are a few mint sets and most of the coins in them are tarnished with many ruined. '69 quarters do not clean up real well and were among the first to go bad.
Virtually every single eagle reverse clad quarter in existence came from a mint set. If they were cut out in time they are probably still good. Ask your local dealer for a few rolls of these and note his expression. He won't have one in the entire shop and odds are good that if he ever did it walked right into his cash register to make change.
People seemed to think coins saved themselves but it takes a collector to save them. And people were not saving them as the mint sets were consumed for the other denominations.
A dealer once let me have a vast horde of circulated quarters that were mostly set aside before 1977. The individual set aside only better dates and higher condition. It was one of the most remarkable accumulations of anything I've ever seen. Unfortunately since it was only face value I deposited almost all of it into the bank. I pulled out only a few items of interest.
I think in the future a great deal more attention will be paid to non-mint set coins. It might take many years but something like a 1969 quarter in AU-58 is a scarcity today and some could be quite attractive. Uncs and other coins are always going to be of interest to me because every coin has a story to tell.
They're all good. Some are much better than others. Some are common even in MS-65 and some aren't common even in MS-60. They are each different in each grade.
@SanctionII's post reminds me that lots of these really should carry a premium even in VF. Collectors know this and there are often some for sale on eBay but of course the price guides ignore it.
Try finding a nice attractive 1970 quarter in F from any source at all. It might be an eye opener for you.
Sounds to me like you are (once again) assuming your personal experience is representative.
Wondercoin's observations are least as representative as yours and he has partially contradicted you. He has stated in this thread that he has a "large supply" of this coinage in better grades (yes, a "hoard") sitting unsearched in SDB and also stated he knows a few others who have it too.
It doesn't matter where the supply originates or if from mint sets intact, in rolls, in albums, or in someone's "change jar". What's relevant is first, if the coins still exist in the quality most collectors will accept. And second, the price which influences or determines the available supply. Whatever supply actually exists, the current relatively low price reduces the potential supply.
When an AU/BU piece costs less than two dollars, the only demand for a circulated piece is going to be from people collecting out of circulation.
I've been all over the country chasing the coins and talking to dealers and collectors for half a century.
I have never said any regular issue clad quarter is rare in chBU. I have said countless times that in top grades they are rare but this is not the subject of this thread. The subject of this thread concerns the availability or lack thereof for the mundane issues in nice choice lustrous uncirculated condition. None of these is scarce or rare but few of them exist in the kind of quantity necessary for a mass market. People have the idea that there are bags and bags of old quarters lying about among the two million mint sets made every year. I am telling you point blank this isn't true. The bags were never saved and the mint sets are gone. I know this for a fact. My estimates could be off but I bet they are pretty conservative. I usually have far higher estimates of surviving coins than almost anyone else.
I know for a fact millions of quarters were saved in the mint set plastic and these will likely constitute much of the supply going forward. Existing mint sets will constitute most of the rest. But even ion aggregate there just aren't enough to supply a mass market because there are dozens of dates and some are very tough. Then the coins still in the plastic are often destroyed.
@Wondercoin is exactly right as is so often the case but he is perhaps the largest collector and dealer of high grade moderns and he knows that finding "pop tops" are "like finding a needle in a haystack". He's not looking or paying a lot of attention to chBU and if I recall he was not very active until the early '80's. To me the market was long in the tooth before he started. I've been watching these coins since Thanksgiving of 1965 when I saw my first one and collecting them since 1972. Wondercoin doesn't specialize in quarters, but more in Gems and especially modern Gems. Obviously he knows pop top and clad quarters. Nobody knows more about Gems and high grade moderns, probably. I can tell you their incidence and he can tell you their value. I can even tell you how many of them were distributed but they are gone now and the information will do you almost no good.
This is absolutely wrong. Not only does it matter but there are NO rolls anyway. Coins made for circulation looked like garbage so no one saved them. The few that were saved anyway still look like garbage and are often tarnished. There are no Gems in change jars and no chBU eagle reverse quarters. I'd wager there aren't a few dozen in the entire country and most of them were recently cut out of a mint set. They are not going to e intercepted before circulation grinds them down because there are too few collectors to spot it in time.
These markets are mostly impervious to price changes. Unless there is a spike higher it won't even have much effect on the percentage being saved from cut up mint sets. Even with a spike higher tarnished coins are not going to be cleaned or saved. This is the point of the thread. Even if prices of clad quarters were to go up today there are not enough of the coins for a mass market. Right now this very minute prices are sharply higher for the very source of these coins and they are still not being saved. Higher prices will bring out a lot of the few surviving sets so a significant portion of all the raw moderns are about to be lost because there is no market. Even "popular" moderns such as the Ikes are a tiny niche market because there are no coin shops that stock them raw or slabbed but the far less popular quarters are simply gone.
Higher prices on mint sets marks the end of raw moderns. Nobody will go out and buy 250 1969 mint sets in a few years to get a Gem because the sets won't be available with even a little competition. The sets are already gone and they aren't coming back with nice pristine coins in them. The ship has sailed.
Scarcity of itself will not create demand but the number of quarter collectors has been growing for years and a massive drawdown of remaining supply is just going to show how few coins exist.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I'm fully prepared to disagree on disagreeing.
If anyone agrees I'm just gonna change my mind.
“He's not looking or paying a lot of attention to chBU and if I recall he was not very active until the early '80's”.
This is totally true. Of course, I have a lot of chBU coins simply because I got “stuck with them”. For example, one time I bought a mint sewn bag of 1978-P Ike dollars. I screened the bag and literally found just a handful or two of gemmy MS65/66 coins out of 1,000 coins. Most of the coins were BU to chBU. I put 980 coins in tubes and sold a roll here and a roll there along the way. Perhaps I still have 500+ of these chBU still in the tubes. What a waste of $1100 or $1200 for 25 years! I would have done better putting the money with grandma into a CD for that period! It’s not because I am a genius that I am sitting on these (500) chBU 1978 Ikes!
Ditto for nearly every 1970-D 50C I ever bought. Hunted and hunted for an MS67 coin. Finally graded one in 25+ years of hunting (for my registry set) along with many 66 grade coins. But, nearly all these hundreds and hundreds of coins are only chBU quality. I was too busy at the time to figure out how to unload all these chBU coins so now I have a small “hoard”. Again, not sure I will ever make a penny (net) when I sell these hundreds and hundreds (and hundreds) of 70-D 50C. Certainly not from the standpoint of lost interest on the money for the past 25 years or outperforming the S&P.
I have countless stories of the “thrill of success” and the “agony of defeat” hunting down these 1965-date “sleeper” clad coins. Easier to write some of the stories down here, as certainly a book on the subject wouldn’t sell too many copies!
Wondercoin
Again?
Add a femme Fatale and a heist, and you'll hit the bestseller list.
“Add a femme Fatale and a heist, and you'll hit the bestseller list.”
Couldn’t you see it now- instead of the “Italian Job”, we could name it the “Denver Job”. The plan to get the incredible final large stash of 1970-D 50C including the hiring of movie extras and a team of homeless skilled men and woman as part of the plot. Jmlanzaf- send me a first draft before the Summer is over. I’ll pitch the idea to my friends over at Paramount Pictures!
Wondercoin
Imagine the logistics of it. In the Italian job, they stole a giant safe full of gold. If you replace that with BU rolls of Kennedy halves, you would have to move a trainload of material!!!!
Maybe we should set it in the future. The year is 2321. Dystopian USA. A foreign invasion led to the downfall of the U.S. and The Great Melt of 2071 destroyed all U.S. coinage as part of a cultural purge.
The Wondercoin hoard has been the stuff of legends. Treasure hunters have been searching for it for over 100 years after the re-establishment of a New USA when rising seas and a century of war led to the collapse of the invaders and the death of billions.
An accidental discovery of what appears to be a text from Mitch to his daughter in 2050 gives a clue to the location of the hoard. A small group of 6 treasure hunters takes the clue and starts the search. But one greedy treasure hunter, Jessup, breaks off and tries to form his own little group of mercenaries to keep the treasure for himself.
In a dramatic and bloody break-up of the original 6, Lauren is killed. Jessup leaves the other four, wounded but alive in the Sierras. Lauren was engaged to Paul, another of the six. Her sister Marnie was also one of the six.
Jessup gets to the treasure first but the Fab Four are right behind them. Fortunately for them, it is taking Jessup weeks to haul the boxes of clad out of the cave in the mountains.
Eventually, Jessup is defeated.
The Wondercoin Hoard is so massive that it swamps the market and makes the coins nearly valueless (again).
Marnie and Paul fall in love despite struggling with guilt over Lauren's death.
Poorer but wiser, they live happily ever after in a mountain home built of clad coins.
I'll grant you your experience is more representative than almost everyone else with US moderns, though absolutely less than wondercoin. Certainly a lot more than with world "moderns" where it isn't representative at all.
Wondercoin said he had a lot of US modern rolls in a SDB or vault. He didn't say how much and while I understood it's far more 1933-1964, still a lot of clad too. If I am wrong, he can correct me by replying himself.
The primary point I was trying to make is that whatever supply actually exists isn't likely as low as you claim or imply. I didn't claim it was millions.
In the 1970's, a hoard of 1856 Flying Eagle cents was disbursed, somewhere in the hundreds or a noticeable proportion of the currently known supply. More recently, one or more gem/BU rolls of the 1912 S or D LHN. (Neither are rare in MS-65 or MS-66.) Same is true or probably true of many world coins with high counts in the TPG populations: 1754 Mexico 8R, 1774 Bolivia 8R, 1821 Guatemala 1/4R, 1817 Chile 1/4R, 1861 Mo Mexico 2R...for starters.
So yes, if there are hoards of these coins, obviously it's reasonable to expect there are far more hoards and larger ones in at least equivalent TPG grades for US moderns. All of the coins I listed were high grade up to "gem"
.> @cladking said:
My comments about Mint sets were intended to state that it doesn't matter if the set is intact or not. What matters is if the coins survive.
>
There are no Gems in change jars and no chBU eagle reverse quarters. I'd wager there aren't a few dozen in the entire country and most of them were recently cut out of a mint set. They are not going to e intercepted before circulation grinds them down because there are too few collectors to spot it in time.
I am using "change jar" as a general term. It can be literal...or not. I have a few "change jars" of world "moderns" from my father's travels and the coins store just fine under proper climate conditions, as in the condition I originally received it for the most part. I am also not talking about "gems" and never even said anything about it.
Regardless, you are in no position to know what millions of individuals did or did not do. No can claim it, given that the coins we are discussing were struck and could have been pulled from circulation within the lifetiime of many just reading these posts. People save all kinds of things and forget about it. I have a partially complete Whitman folder of clad quarters, somewhere in storage. Not gems, but definitely meeting the quality criteria you are describing now.
CK and I have have disagreed to disagree many times.
I was referring more to his changing his mind...
Thank you WCC (and others) for attempting to flesh out the very complex discussion we are having here concerning US modern coins. First, I want set out what I believe to be the difference between CK’s opinions and predictions regarding United States modern coins (1965-date) and mine. And please correct me if I am wrong here on anything CK.
CK wore out many a pair of shoes traveling the United States on the hunt for modern clad coins in the late 1960’s, 1970s and early 1980’s. He was a pioneer in the field for this type of material. He discovered a great many things related to clad coinage on his travels throughout these years.
It is now more than (40) years later. He has seen where many of those early discoveries and findings of his have gone. Some have taken a path he fully expected would happen and some have taken a different path. CK reports to us now this history of clad coinage through the lens of his personal experience. It is a remarkable story and one we have barely touched on. For example, I want to hear more about his experiences going into campgrounds, small towns, etc. on the hunt for clad coins in the 1970’s.
My experience with clad coins essentially began in 1983/84. Before that, my experience began with collecting US coins in general in 1965 (as a small kid) and centered around the hunt for silver coins. In the mid-70s through 1983, I was busy with college and graduate school. Coin collecting needed to be put on hold entirely. But, after completing graduate school, I moved out to Los Angeles in 1983, started a job and discovered the Long Beach coin show.
I was very much interested at that time in the silver modern coin series and started collecting the nicest silver Washington quarters, Franklin 50C and Roosevelt Dimes I could find, along with Lincoln cents and Jefferson nickels. For many years, I pursued the 1947-1964 Mint sets, especially chasing down nicely toned sets through 1958. I collected many other things back then as well, including some Morgan and Peace dollars, pattern cents and Indian cents. But, I was drawn to the modern silver series of coins that were still readily available at the shows for low prices - those 1932 to date coins (excluding Walkers that I thought were relatively overpriced as compared to the other coins I was pursuing).
How I got hooked on clad coins big time was an unusual circumstance. I ended up buying a huge amount of mint sewn SBA $1 bags for near face value from 1979 and 1980. I personally went through every single coin looking for the nicest specimens I could find. And, I could not believe how beat up the coins were and just how impossible it was to find superb gem coins.
I put every gem and better coin I could find in tubes (that I have to this day) and the superb gem coins in a tiny box in flips. Literally, after finishing maybe 10,000 coins (and 6 different mintmarks and dates), I had just 12 or 15 coins in my superb gem box! I knew at this point these coins were very scarce in super high grade and my hunt for them had just begun.
Next, I needed to buy hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of 1981 mint sets to put aside superb gem examples of those (3) mintmarks as well. It became a near impossible task in the case of the S mint coin, which resulted in me buying hundreds and hundreds more sets on the never-ending search for the 81-S in superb gem condition.
And, of course, I also decided at this time to collect all Mint State and proof Ike dollars as well, both clad and silver, and especially the highest grade mint state coins I could locate. These hunts expanded into the niche market of trying to locate proof-like Mint State coins as well (in all series from 1932), as they were near impossible to find with the exception of 1971-74 Silver Ikes which were a little easier to find at that time.
The clad hunts expanded into 1965-date Roosies, Washington quarters, Kennedy 50C, etc. and I was hooked at this point. But, again, I was hooked entirely on the pursuit of condition rarities, not the number of Choice BU coins that existed out there. For example, when I discovered that 1969 and 1971 P mint quarters were near impossible to find in superb gem (something CK knew already as well as the fact that nice Choice BU coins were even very difficult to locate), my attention was shifted to searching every dealer’s table for super examples in their 2x2’s they brought to the show. I passed up buying MS63 to MS64+ coins. I wanted only gems.
My clad pursuits then expanded to MS state quarters, National Park quarters, Sacagawea dollars, Presidential dollars, 50C clad Commems, etc., etc. Again, with a near 100% focus on condition rarities. We could discuss each of these coin series in 500 post threads if we wanted to, but I’m not sure anyone wants to. So I will stop here for now.
Wondercoin.
For whatever it's worth (and I don't think it's worth very much) this thread has inspired me to set up a saved search on GreatCollections for Washington quarters 1965-1998 PCGS MS 67-70.
Thanks @wondercoin
I make my assessments on a variety of factors. But in my last post, I was using examples of much older coins with much lower mintages in geographically isolated locations with little if any collecting at the time. These aren't unusual either, as evidenced by ancient coinage and medieval English.
The 1821 Guatemala 1/4R has 296 graded MS-65 or better, with 111 MS-66 and 14 MS-67. The lopsided proportion showed up in the data either last year or late 2019. Heritage has been selling multiples in their weekly auctions for months. I bought an MS-66 about 15 years ago when it was believed to be much scarcer (though still one of the most common for the type) and these are well made, better than clad quarters from what I have seen. But it's a 200 year old coin, with a likely mintage of maybe at most 500,000 and there was (and is) no organized collecting in Guatemala.
So yes, there are potentially more better quality survivors of this coin than say, a 1971-P quarter due to different grading standards. But as a general principle, if there are 125 in MS-66 and MS-67 now, it's far more believable to expect that the supply which actually exists for any clad quarter in some particular TPG eligible grade is a (very) large multiple of what is visible to any individual, no matter how close or how long they have looked.
This is why I have disagreed with CK's estimates, not just here but when discussing the world coinage he describes as "modern". I directionally agree with him (and you) on the highest eligible TPG grades, but that's due to "positive selection bias" since an economic motivation exists to find these coins. Concurrently, the opposite also applies where the better coins in somewhat lower quality (MS-66 and below) were also removed from circulation or mint sets a long time ago and either still held by collectors now or someone else. No one else is likely to see it because it isn't worth selling, so it just "sits" there.
Previously, South Africa Union was my primary series. It's disproportionately scarce for 20th century coinage. But when I used to communicate with collectors in that country, they would make the same mistake CK does by assuming their personal observations were representative. The coins are still scarce, but mostly only in better (MS) grades. but since they prefer TPG, the counts have increased noticeably for most, though usually only proportionately.
Interesting post. Thanks. I didn't buy many sets especially in those early days but rather spent a lot of time in coin shops looking through stacks and stacks of them. Truth to tell I didn't know they had even made Gem Ikes until 1978 when I saw my very first one in a recent mint set. I found a few Gem '81-S SBA's but there might not even be one for your "superb Gem" box (I'm still looking).
With quarters I rarely found any in rolls and bags so concentrated on mint sets where it was like shooting fish in a barrel. Rolls and bags were a little better in the '80's and '90's.
I suppose it was the early years of clads that created my estimation of value in Gems. In those days almost every coin made for circulation had serious production deficits. The coins were so ugly you might not notice that it wasn't scratched at all. Over the years as production qualities improved I never noticed that clean coins were so much prettier than those with little nicks. It's hard to tell today but 1966 quarters were for most practical purposes made in VG condition. Dies were spaced far apart and tonnage was at a minimum. Then dies were used until they were almost flat. Most brand new specimens had the lettering merged right into the rim on the reverse. Now days they're all worn out too. Many have apparently been removed by the FED as underweight. About 40% remain and it actually seems they look better today than in 1966 but of course they are each and all worn today and most covered with little scratches. A full third of these survivors are culls.
I saved coins all the way down to MS-63 for better dates and gemmy MS-64 for common dates. This estimation was based on relative availability.
These differences probably account for most of our different perspectives.
I always tried to talk to shop owners and tried to visit the wholesalers to see exactly what was happening. It was a change in FED accounting that really set this whole thing in motion. In 1972 it was very common to get rolls of early clad in BU condition from the bank. '65 and '69-D quarters were still being issued by the Fed in this area and I assumed other dates were available in other districts. Indeed, I could see nice new Uncs of other dates in my travels. But then the FED switched to FIFO accounting which mandated they rotate their stocks. This, of course, had the effect of making sure all the coins wore out evenly. If there were such thing as an AU '69 quarter in circulation it would be because its total time in storage or a change jar was nearly 50 years. The odds of this is nearly zero so there are none. If you did find one anyway which is quite possible then it's a safe bet it came from a mint set or collection. Odds are in either case it would be an ugly coin and still have a little mint set tarnish. Nobody had old rolls of any date though I was able to pick up a few over the years and passed on many more because they were too high priced and I was confident the cons were ugly. My rolls came from banks in the years of issue and only the nice coins were saved.
Dimes are much more common than quarters but I believe these are going to surprise people some day because the "extra" ones saved are generally poor quality. There will not be so many more Gems and in some dates there may actually be fewer.
"So yes, there are potentially more better quality survivors of this coin than say, a 1971-P quarter due to different grading standards. But as a general principle, if there are 125 in MS-66 and MS-67 now, it's far more believable to expect that the supply which actually exists for any clad quarter in some particular TPG eligible grade is a (very) large multiple of what is visible to any individual, no matter how close or how long they have looked."
There's a "tyranny" of numbers at play here.
We know for a fact that many (most really) of these coins were very lightly saved and there was no mad rush of collectors out there seeking Gems. So how can there be lots of something like 1983 quarters when only 1 coin in 500 was a nice Gem as issued by the mint? Only about 100,000 were saved meaning there would be only a couple hundred Gems if the ones saved are a good sample of what was made.
It is certainly true that almost anyone is more likely to set aside a beautiful roll of Gems than some ugly typical roll. I have no clue exactly how this will affect the availability of the date.
For many years back in the mid-90's I advertised to pay $40 each for any Gem '82 or '83 quarter. I figured many people would be willing to check their rolls for this kind of money. I only received a handful of coins and none of them were the '83-P. There simply is no "mass supply" for any clad quarter even in lowly MS-65. Indeed, there is no "mass supply" even in MS-63 where much of demand would focus. If a mass market were to develop there is simply insufficient supply. Of course, you say "so what?" but the number of collectors has been doubling every few years and at the exact same time the last of the raw moderns are being consumed to make Ike rolls.
Talk about a tyranny of numbers...
Where does the 100,000 number come from?
On what do we base the number of collectors has been doubling every few years? I do not see exponential growth in collectors of 1965-1998 quarters.
1983 quarters might be an exception due to lack of mint sets.
If there are 500,000 1984 Mint sets still floating around, how many gemmy 64 and up coins are there? @WCC is making the point (I believe) that the lack of an economic incentive to slab 64s and 65s makes it hard to assess the remaining population. I don't think it is reasonable to assume that there aren't significantly more gemmy coins than current pops suggest.
This is another example of how you ignore logic and common sense by placing more reliance on your personal experience. That is, even when you aren't just making it up as you did here with your 100,000 estimate. There is a difference between your definition of "lightly saved" and reality, whatever the actual number is in a particular quality.
The true "tyranny of numbers" are the facts I presented in my post to wondercoin.
1821 Guatemala 1/4R: 200 year old coin, not available to pull from circulation by anyone alive today or anything close to it, maybe 500,000 mintage, no local organized collecting, limited travel and communication. 125 MS-66 and MS-67 graded with likely no duplicates.
1983 quarter: 38 year old coin, available to be pulled from circulation by many members just on this forum, 500MM mintage, several million US collectors then and now
Yes, you told me that before. It doesn't change my conclusion, as it's another example of your unrepresentative personal experience. What makes you think that hardly any of the relatively few who bought the publication where your add was placed bothered to read it? Most adds are buried in fine print at the back and no none knows how many see it.
For the 1983, currently 464 graded MS-66 or better by PCGS with an almost certain low proportion of duplicates and some additional from NGC which will cross to an MS-66. This coin is easily an R-1 in MS-66 or better with over 1250, likely some small multiple if not more. Not like it's worth that much in MS-66 where there is that much of an incentive to grade it.
In MS-65, some multiple of 1250, a noticeable one as in not small. 724 graded by PCGS now plus some more from NGC.
For MS-63 or MS-64, it depends upon your definition of "mass market". If you claim 500,000 future collectors as you did in a prior NGC thread, I'm not claiming it for the 1983 specifically but it's definitely possible for some or many dates. For the 1983, I think it could be more than the 100,000 you stated here but this is an inference.
Yes, but also see my prior post on other known hoards.
It defies common sense to believe that when many far older coins with the characteristics I listed have the currently known supply that any coin like a US clad quarter has the relative scarcity CK claims.
It's pretty incredible this thread is up to 5.7K views. I've been missing out!
Imagine how many views there'd be if moderns weren't hated by everybody?
No. It's only the obsessives who read it and I can't explain why I have since I have minus zero interest in moderns. Some of us are irrational (including a poster in this thread
)
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Me too, but I am actually interested in the psychology motivating collectors. Not a psychologist but it's actually a lot more interesting than most coins to me.
For all the pushback I give @cladking , I do respect that he has the courage to state his views and defend it, even if I usually disagree with him. Don't think I have told him that but stating it now. It's not easy to do.
The days of raws and moderns laugh and run away like a child at play
Through the meadow land toward a closing door
A door marked "nevermore" that wasn't there before
The lonely night discloses just a passing breeze filled with memories
Of the golden smile that introduced me to
The days of raws and moderns and you
“The year is 2321. Dystopian USA”
Jmlanzaf: If it’s dystopian America, how is there any intrinsic value for the clad coinage? What's the treasure hunters’ motivation? Where would the market demand come from in dystopian USA?
Wondercoin
Edited to add… in the current Braddick thread, it is truly amazing to see how many collectors on the US Coin Forum would never collect clad coinage.
Well, it started out a a return from dystopia. But, if you read to the end, it all ended up being worthless anyway. Lol
Plot option 2: the treasure hunters think the Wondercoin hoard is gold. When they find it, it turns out to be 30 million clad mint sets and 20 metric tons of state quarters and they all commit suicide.
By the way, in terms of the Braddick thread, except for one gold hater, one Morgan hater and one Barber hater, it seems like all the hates consisted of clad coins, nickel coins, and copper coins. It may be coincidental with moderns but it does seem like a composition bias.
I mean, there was a lot of hatred for 3 cent nickels but not 3 cent silvers. Virtually every nickel series except Buffs were mentioned.
It makes me wonder what the market would say if, for example, the Mint struck something like Pan Pac octagonal using original dies but copper nickel planchets. Would anyone buy them?
Clad coins would make excellent raw material for manufacturer of tools, edged and projectile weapons, cooking and eating utensils, arts and crafts, and many other useful purposes.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
A lot of people just wouldn't say they'd never collect clad.
And one mightta just said it to get a rise out of someone.
To each his own but the fact is that most collectors at best have no interest in clad and many hate it. I doubt anyone hates it quite as much as I did in 1965 though. They simply see the coins and (or the metal) as vulgar, common, and ugly.
But collectors of the last three generations have gone through a sort of screening process that tend to eliminate those who like moderns. This screening is still ongoing but becoming increasingly less relevant because of the internet. It's possible to collect clads for a while now before someone tells you they are just junk and distressingly common. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder just like "junk" and they sure aren't so common any longer.
Two words; "explosive delamination"!!!!
I got excited today when I received a quarter back in change that was BU, and appeared from '70's. I saw a 1 towards end of date and thought a 1971, and put it in my other pocket to keep safe. Turned out to be a 2021 Washington's crossing! Neat to see the old design. I believe a lot of my collecting habits have gone through an attrition as well. I grew up during clad era, was more vigilant and wanting the silver dime, or, quarter back in change, and didn't care much for clad, yet, I was happy as I would have been finding a silver coin in change back in the early '90's, as I was today with the mystery coin that turned out to be a 2021. It takes time for collecting preferences, paradigms, or, prejudices to change when you grew up, and into a time when clad was c***. I do have a greater appreciation for clad than I did in the mid 80's through '90's, yet, any certainty resides with the future collecting base, and what they see as worthwhile to collect. Honestly, I don't see in my area, an interest in coins with the younger generations in general. This concerns me more so with the health of the hobby, as to who will carry the torch to gripe about series, TPG's, stickers, and even Clad 20-30 years from now.
If it was a one year coin or limited series with a limited mintage, I think it would sell well. Collectors like the design and might buy it as a cheap alternative to the original. It's also large, unlike current base metal coinage.
On the other hand, if it was a recurring NCLT series even with a low mintage, I think it would sell very poorly.
If any world mint believed that striking base metal NCLT was a winning marketing strategy, they would do it. Maybe one has tried it at some point but I am not aware of it. In the aggregate, the evidence proves that they do not.
This preference isn't an accident. It originates in the general culture which collectors bring with them into collecting, even though this does not literally predict how each of us collect.
There is a lot of world base metal NCLT.
There's a fair amount of US base metal NCLT.
It's just inexpensive and doesn't make headlines.
Not referring to commemoratives but wasn't clear. I have never heard of a non-commemorative base metal NCLT.
None of my estimates are "formal" or the result of "counting" so any of them might be significantly off. This being said some are extremely accurate probably since they are based on extensive sampling. Others are more ephemeral because even the definition of terms is difficult. How do you define a "clad quarter collector"? Obviously it can't include every individual who ever purchased a folder or album for clad quarters because there are not millions of collectors. It can't include everyone who ever purchased a clad quarter for more than face value because there are tens of millions of people who have bought mint sets.
I define the collector as anyone actively seeking coins for a collection and learning about their various characteristics. I wouldn't include a collector from circulation who thinks he can't find the last coin in his collection ('68-D or '71)) because it is just bad luck. This is one of the most difficult numbers to estimate because it is necessarily based largely on anecdotal evidence and assumptions. It is based on the number of mint sets sold to the general public and the proportion of buyers who collect each denomination. It is based on the growth of registry sets and sales of folders and albums. It is also based on lots of more subtle information like how long such coins stay in dealer stock. It is based on the proportion of silver to clad quarters available on eBay. But there are thousands of sources and data points from view counters to actually talking to collectors.
The hobby is experiencing tremendous growth right now and much of it is invisible to more established collectors. It is invisible largely because it isn't pushing up the prices of mid tier coins. Much of the demand is in less traditional areas like tokens, foreign, NCLT, and ephemera. But it is spreading and we all "know" a lot of it will eventually get to VF bust half dollars and the like.
I don't really have time to do these questions justice now or to catch up but hope to find time later.
There are very few non- commemorative precious metal NCLT. You are referring to bullion coins. Of course there are no base metal bullion coins.
Most NCLT is commemorative. That's why it is so popular. People often collect themes.
“How do you define a "clad quarter collector"? “
Don’t feel too bad CK. If memory serves me right (and please correct me if I am off by maybe 90,000,000), the US Mint at one point in writing estimated there to be one hundred million (100,000,000) state quarter collectors! Meanwhile, 20-25 years after the program conclusion, top pops in the 25-50 range still “go begging” when offered for sale.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Someone that collects them from change.
Most people are perfectly happy collecting from change. It doesn't automatically follow that one will buy top pops.
I collected SHQs from change but don't buy top pops or really any slabbed coins for these.
“Most people are perfectly happy collecting from change. It doesn't automatically follow that one will buy top pops.
I collected SHQs from change but don't buy top pops or really any slabbed coins for these.”
Agreed, but wouldn’t you have thought that 100 people out of 100,000,000 might want top pops? 😆
Wondercoin
There are very few eagle reverse clad quarter collectors that fulfill the criteria I laid out earlier in the thread. There are so few that there isn't even a wholesale market for the coins!!! Historically these collectors have gotten their coins from circulation or much more commonly from mint sets. If mint sets aren't going to be readily available then the supply of coins in dealer inventory will disappear quite rapidly because most dealers don't keep any inventory at all or only a few in their binders.
I never suggested all of these changes are going to take place virtually overnight even though the increase in mint set prices almost have. There will simply be an increased probability that demand for 40c coins is not being met in traditional ways immediately. New ways will be found but these new supplies are simply very shallow.
Current demand is almost invisible. A few customers a year walk into a coin shop and buy a few mint sets. Some of them collect the quarters. Without mint sets they ask for BU quarters and are shown rolls of SHQ and rolls of 1955 quarters. With a little luck the dealer will have a few rolls of bicentennial quarters. When the dealer realizes the guy wants eagle reverse clad quarters he might become irate.
So some of the new demand won't even be coming from the hundreds of new clad quarter collectors every month but from a few dealers who want to stock the coins because a few customers ask about them. I have no clue how dealers are going to lay in any stock without the mint sets. There are no coins other than the mint sets available. There are no wholesalers or jobbers they can call to buy a roll set at any price. Of course a few dealers could do it with enough motivation but nobody would even try with an MS-66 '72-D at 40c. There's not even one roll set available for dealer stock!!! Julian Jarvis couldn't put together a roll set in 1981. It sure has gotten any easier.
The coins have been ignored and their collectors shunned for over half a century and now people are surprised there's no market! If mint set prices stay up or go higher then we'll start seeing the tiny market that already exists because demand is always and virtually by definition satisfied.
There are coins out there and I know where a lot of them are. The exact size of the supply is very difficult to gauge but its nature less so. The coins that were saved are generally fairly nice and most were at least chBU when they were set aside. It's even possible there are a few partial bag sets sitting in some wholesalers back rooms. Once they went to the trouble of saving these from mint sets it's quite possible that a few were never taken to the bank. Few businesses want to tie up thousands of dollars or lots of space but it's no secret that these coins are far scarcer than people believe. There are also several "accumulators" nationwide who have tried to create a market in the coins or merely set them aside for investment. A few of these could be "substantial" but anyone who thinks they have millions of coins is way off base. In aggregate they may millions of coins but they are spread out among 65 dates or more, and of course, everyone has more of the common dates.
No, the bulk of the supply is still in the surviving mint sets and still highly vulnerable to being spent or further degraded. Indeed the odds of attrition will actually increase as the sets are dismantled for halves and dollars. Some sets won't be shipped because they are in terrible shape and will be left in the plastic. The coins need to be cleaned because the longer they sit the more likely the damage is permanent.
These sets are spread far and wide and many are owned by the general public who wouldn't know the price went up and wouldn't see any further increases for years. How these have faired is not easily known but I am assuming a high attrition rate because of tarnish if nothing else. They are no longer owned by the original buyer but are those bought from HSN or Bob Vila's website. Some were bought at estate sales in recent years or from a trip to the coin shop. They are not trading hands and are more likely sitting in the back of the shirt drawer.
There are still thousands of sets coming in from the heirs of the original buyers but this is slowing to a trickle on the early sets. Many of the sets coming into coin shops are those from collectors who bought them over the years for one reason or another (often just because they were so cheap). It is this source that will be supplying the markets now. These sets are generally in good condition. A few will be held back looking for even higher prices but, I believe, most will be unloaded while the price is strong.
50 years ago if the prices doubled the demand would simply be swamped but today it's unlikely there is enough supply to satisfy even ongoing demand, much less the increases in ongoing demand. The sets are gone and what survives is unavailable or degraded.
This thread has been very informational, educational, even entertaining but most of all motivational; by the fact that I've read every post here - I'm ready take another crack at finishing Tolstoy's "War and Peace", because now I really think I can finish it!
“There are coins out there and I know where a lot of them are.”
Now we’re talking!
Wondercoin