@wondercoin said:
“Most people are perfectly happy collecting from change. It doesn't automatically follow that one will buy top pops.
I collected SHQs from change but don't buy top pops or really any slabbed coins for these.”
Agreed, but wouldn’t you have thought that 100 people out of 100,000,000 might want top pops? 😆
Wondercoin
I don't know. I never thought about it so probably not the way you are thinking. I think there are people that like nice condition, but not enough to chase them to the moon.
If they toned amazing colors on the other hand....
I do see a lot more people interested in the silver versions, regardless of whether they were slabbed or not, toned or not.
@Zoins said:
It's pretty incredible this thread is up to 5.7K views. I've been missing out!
Imagine how many views there'd be if moderns weren't hated by everybody?
If only CAC stickered them... Then we'd know how many superb gem 1969-D quarters there truly are versus those merely wearing a fancy label. Until then they all remain CACless wonders.
@jedm said:
This thread has been very informational, educational, even entertaining but most of all motivational; by the fact that I've read every post here - I'm ready take another crack at finishing Tolstoy's "War and Peace", because now I really think I can finish it!
There's a bit more plot evolution than in this thread... and fewer made up statistics.
@Zoins said:
It's pretty incredible this thread is up to 5.7K views. I've been missing out!
Imagine how many views there'd be if moderns weren't hated by everybody?
If only CAC stickered them... Then we'd know how many superb gem 1969-D quarters there truly are versus those merely wearing a fancy label. Until then they all remain CACless wonders.
@MasonG said:
Imagine how many views there'd be if moderns weren't hated by everybody?
If only CAC stickered them... Then we'd know how many superb gem 1969-D quarters there truly are versus those merely wearing a fancy label. Until then they all remain CACless wonders.
@MasonG said:
Imagine how many views there'd be if moderns weren't hated by everybody?
If only CAC stickered them... Then we'd know how many superb gem 1969-D quarters there truly are versus those merely wearing a fancy label. Until then they all remain CACless wonders.
“I don't know. I never thought about it so probably not the way you are thinking. I think there are people that like nice condition, but not enough to chase them to the moon.”
Zoins: notice I said pop 25 or 50 coins… the “moon” is not $250 or $300. And, if you really think about it, you will likely realize the absurdity of assuming 100,000,000 “collectors” of a series but not ONE PERSON IN A MILLION willing to pay $250 for a pop top coin! Statistically near impossible IMHO UNLESS……..
there are no where close to 100,000,000 collectors by any definition much beyond a “collector” putting a state quarter in one’s drawer from the state they are from and forgetting about it for 5 or 10 or 20 years. Maybe 25,000,000 could have done that - possibly.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
“If only CAC stickered them... Then we'd know how many superb gem 1969-D quarters there truly are versus those merely wearing a fancy label. Until then they all remain CACless wonders. >:)o:) “
First, I like CAC very much. For one thing, it can help newbies avoid big mistakes if they follow some basic principles.
That said- second, the rare date is 69-P, not 69-D. And, I already know how many superb gems exist and how many are “wearing a fancy label”.
Third- I want to collect and buy all my coins BEFORE CAC joins the party. For, once they join the party, the great coins will likely rise is price while the crap coins for the grade will likely drop in price. I want to avoid buying the crap now and fill my coffers with the great coins. A very simple formula for success IMHO.
Just my 2 cents,
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
there are no where close to 100,000,000 collectors by any definition much beyond a “collector” putting a state quarter in one’s drawer from the state they are from and forgetting about it for 5 or 10 or 20 years. Maybe 25,000,000 could have done that - possibly.
This was the extent of my collecting SQ, in 1999. I lost interest after that. I did make the effort to place the coins in Safeflips and still have it.
@MasonG said:
Imagine how many views there'd be if moderns weren't hated by everybody?
If only CAC stickered them... Then we'd know how many superb gem 1969-D quarters there truly are versus those merely wearing a fancy label. Until then they all remain CACless wonders.
Can't you MAC them instead of CAC them?
No one cares what the ASA Accugrade guy thinks.
MAC is apparently building an on-line museum of South African Union coinage, on eBay.
@wondercoin said:
Third- I want to collect and buy all my coins BEFORE CAC joins the party. For, once they join the party, the great coins will likely rise is price while the crap coins for the grade will likely drop in price. I want to avoid buying the crap now and fill my coffers with the great coins. A very simple formula for success IMHO.
Wondercoin
So do you think CAC hurts collectors by increasing the price substantially when they would have been better served by learning to grade on their own all along and pocketing the difference? In other words, do you agree that there is a CAC tax for the newbies?
“So do you think CAC hurts collectors by increasing the price substantially when they would have been better served by learning to grade on their own all along and pocketing the difference? In other words, do you agree that there is a CAC tax for the newbies?”
I already said I believe CAC is helpful to newbie collectors.
Many newbie collectors will never learn to “grade on their own”. Ditto for more experienced collectors as well. I’ve seen far too many “below average” quality #1 or #2 registry sets of classics and moderns over the years.
Hence, I do not subscribe to the view that newbies pay a “CAC tax”. For one thing, does one ever pay a “tax” if one (newbie or experienced) can possibly get it all back “in spades” at the time of resale? Not “tax” in the way being suggested here I suspect.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
“So do you think CAC hurts collectors by increasing the price substantially when they would have been better served by learning to grade on their own all along and pocketing the difference? In other words, do you agree that there is a CAC tax for the newbies?”
I already said I believe CAC is helpful to newbie collectors.
Many newbie collectors will never learn to “grade on their own”. Ditto for more experienced collectors as well. I’ve seen far too many “below average” quality #1 or #2 registry sets of classics and moderns over the years.
Hence, I do not subscribe to the view that newbies pay a “CAC tax”. For one thing, does one ever pay a “tax” if one (newbie or experienced) can possibly get it all back “in spades” at the time of resale? Not “tax” in the way being suggested here I suspect.
Wondercoin
I would add
1. Almost no one grades as well as they think.
2. even people who grade a series or two expertly might struggle in other series.
I can tell if my roof is leaking. A home inspector can probably tell if my roof is going to leak in 5 years. Paying for an expert opinion is not a tax, it's a service.
@wondercoin said:
“So do you think CAC hurts collectors by increasing the price substantially when they would have been better served by learning to grade on their own all along and pocketing the difference? In other words, do you agree that there is a CAC tax for the newbies?”
I already said I believe CAC is helpful to newbie collectors.
Many newbie collectors will never learn to “grade on their own”. Ditto for more experienced collectors as well. I’ve seen far too many “below average” quality #1 or #2 registry sets of classics and moderns over the years.
Hence, I do not subscribe to the view that newbies pay a “CAC tax”. For one thing, does one ever pay a “tax” if one (newbie or experienced) can possibly get it all back “in spades” at the time of resale? Not “tax” in the way being suggested here I suspect.
Wondercoin
I would add
1. Almost no one grades as well as they think.
2. even people who grade a series or two expertly might struggle in other series.
I can tell if my roof is leaking. A home inspector can probably tell if my roof is going to leak in 5 years. Paying for an expert opinion is not a tax, it's a service.
Tax as used here = surcharge or premium for security, convenience, quasi-guarantee, etc. I do consider that a tax that all property owners inevitably pay.
As for getting it back, if it is beaned when you purchase it and you are able to sell a profit, I think the increase is from asset appreciation and not the warranty.
@Catbert said:
Can you imagine the torture that JA's team would undergo if they had to review clads? I can't see it happening.
He'd be bored. Then again, I'm not sure how he isn't bored looking at thousands of common date, low grade UNC Morgan Dollars that are blast white either. I wouldn't relish that part of the job either.
@wondercoin said:
“There are coins out there and I know where a lot of them are.”
Now we’re talking!
But not nearly enough for a mass market.
There aren't even enough to duplicate the Ike market and it's just tiny. As proof that it's tiny consider the '76 type I. It probably had a mintage of fewer than 40,000 Gems and fewer than 4,000,000 nice chBU coins. There are probably fewer than a few hundred and a few thousand chBU's still outside of collections but it wholesales for only $4. Gems aren't much higher.
The supply is ample for current demand but the demand is exploding and few coins will hit the market even at much higher prices.
@jedm said:
This thread has been very informational, educational, even entertaining but most of all motivational; by the fact that I've read every post here - I'm ready take another crack at finishing Tolstoy's "War and Peace", because now I really think I can finish it!
Moby Dick might be more appropriate since most people can't get past page 80.
@wondercoin said:
“There are coins out there and I know where a lot of them are.”
Now we’re talking!
But not nearly enough for a mass market.
There aren't even enough to duplicate the Ike market and it's just tiny. As proof that it's tiny consider the '76 type I. It probably had a mintage of fewer than 40,000 Gems and fewer than 4,000,000 nice chBU coins. There are probably fewer than a few hundred and a few thousand chBU's still outside of collections but it wholesales for only $4. Gems aren't much higher.
The supply is ample for current demand but the demand is exploding and few coins will hit the market even at much higher prices.
It's a die variety even though it's collected as part of the date/MM set since it is so short. Not sure why this is unusual.
I also would not consider the Ike market that small. Most of the prices are low, but that's because the number of graded coins is not. Most Ike's have larger TPG populations than most silver Washington quarters.
The populations must also have increased noticeably. Years ago (maybe five) when there was an Ike dollar thread on the NGC forum, the 71-P had a PCGS count of 61 in MS-66. Now it is 110 with 1 in 67. MS-65 is over 1100.
As a large coin, I think the series has better potential than all other US modern series but the actual supply given the prices must be a noticeable multiple of current TPG counts, outside of the lower count condition census grades.
@wondercoin said:
“So do you think CAC hurts collectors by increasing the price substantially when they would have been better served by learning to grade on their own all along and pocketing the difference? In other words, do you agree that there is a CAC tax for the newbies?”
I already said I believe CAC is helpful to newbie collectors.
Many newbie collectors will never learn to “grade on their own”. Ditto for more experienced collectors as well. I’ve seen far too many “below average” quality #1 or #2 registry sets of classics and moderns over the years.
Hence, I do not subscribe to the view that newbies pay a “CAC tax”. For one thing, does one ever pay a “tax” if one (newbie or experienced) can possibly get it all back “in spades” at the time of resale? Not “tax” in the way being suggested here I suspect.
Wondercoin
I would add
1. Almost no one grades as well as they think.
2. even people who grade a series or two expertly might struggle in other series.
I can tell if my roof is leaking. A home inspector can probably tell if my roof is going to leak in 5 years. Paying for an expert opinion is not a tax, it's a service.
Tax as used here = surcharge or premium for security, convenience, quasi-guarantee, etc. I do consider that a tax that all property owners inevitably pay.
As for getting it back, if it is beaned when you purchase it and you are able to sell a profit, I think the increase is from asset appreciation and not the warranty.
The point is that you paid it when you bought it and the person who bought it from you paid it back. No net "tax" paid.
@jmlanzaf said:
The point is that you paid it when you bought it and the person who bought it from you paid it back. No net "tax" paid.
Considering you paid x + 30% surcharge to sell for $Y and could have bought the coin at x before and sold it to a knowledgeable collector for a premium $Y, you’re not getting back the lost profit.
@jmlanzaf said:
The point is that you paid it when you bought it and the person who bought it from you paid it back. No net "tax" paid.
Considering you paid x + 30% surcharge to sell for $Y and could have bought the coin at x before and sold it to a knowledgeable collector for a premium $Y, you’re not getting back the lost profit.
If it sells for x+30 the first time, presumably it also sells for x+30 the second time. It's still a CAC.
You're assuming you could have bought it for x and sold it for x+30%. And maybe you could, if you CACed it yourself or found the right buyer. But you are turning it into an apples to oranges comparison.
Then there's also a PCGS tax. You could have bought it for x-30 raw and then sold it for x+30.
@jmlanzaf said:
The point is that you paid it when you bought it and the person who bought it from you paid it back. No net "tax" paid.
Considering you paid x + 30% surcharge to sell for $Y and could have bought the coin at x before and sold it to a knowledgeable collector for a premium $Y, you’re not getting back the lost profit.
It also prevents the dealer from buying it from the unsuspecting collector for x in the first place. The dealer has to pay x+30% to acquire it. In that sense, it is insurance not a tax. You're assuming a savvy collector taking advantage of a dealer rather than a savvy dealer taking advantage of a collector.
“@Catbert said:
Can you imagine the torture that JA's team would undergo if they had to review clads? I can't see it happening.
Imagine the torture modern graders would have grading classics where MS 64 means something different in each series?”
WCC is correct that CAC has been grading clad Ikes for years and years now. Not to mention Memorial cents. How far off in time can Kennedy 50C be? Or, 1903-1912 United States Phil. pesos for that matter (that routinely now sell for upwards of $40,000-$50,000++) !
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
“There are probably fewer than a few hundred and a few thousand chBU's still outside of collections but it wholesales for only $4. Gems aren't much higher.”
Now, here is where we must agree to disagree as the original Mintage of roughly 1,900,000+ likely still has well over 1,000,000 uncut (and unsearched for chBU) 1975 mint sets (I think you agreed with this number already). Of those 1,000,000+ sets, there are likely a hundred thousand chBU coins, if not closer to 150,000+ IMHO. A far cry from your prediction of just “a few thousand”. Your gem prediction is likely off as well by a meaningful multiple.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@Catbert said:
While CAC grades Ike’s and memorial cents, my supposition still stands that JA’s team isn’t craving to do CK’s beloved quarters, etc.
It’s only business strike Ikes and select DDOs for the cents if I am not mistaken.
I would think Silver Roosevelt’s and maybe the Philippine issues would come before clad quarters. On the other hand, CAC could add an annoyance fee and charge $30/coin for clad and see if there are any takers.
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
I don't see what math has to do with it. There's no reason that CAC ever has to include all modern clad. Eagle Eye doesn't do anything but cents, for example.
@wondercoin said:
“There are probably fewer than a few hundred and a few thousand chBU's still outside of collections but it wholesales for only $4. Gems aren't much higher.”
Now, here is where we must agree to disagree as the original Mintage of roughly 1,900,000+ likely still has well over 1,000,000 uncut (and unsearched for chBU) 1975 mint sets (I think you agreed with this number already). Of those 1,000,000+ sets, there are likely a hundred thousand chBU coins, if not closer to 150,000+ IMHO. A far cry from your prediction of just “a few thousand”. Your gem prediction is likely off as well by a meaningful multiple.
Just my 2 cents.
My statement was more hyperbolic than I really intended. But right now this very moment a large percentage of the 8 or 900,000 surviving sets have tarnished Ikes. Of course most of these could be salvaged if they were soaked right now but this is highly improbable. I'm kindda counting attrition that hasn't even happened yet. Of course it won't happen if singles prices soar.
These sets are not truly "unsearched". Certainly many of the sets on the market are unsearched but a lot more of the sets held by the public are searched. While wholesalers cut sets they do search them first. In the old days this was mostly just for cameos and varieties but now days I'm sure they check for almost everything. I've seen promotions for rolls of S/S '70 cents and these most probably came from mint sets. They were asking good money for them, too.
Be this as it may the fact remains sets are being snapped up by wholesalers for exactly this coin and it remains to be seen if they get enough that prices come back down to earth.
@wondercoin said:
“I don't know. I never thought about it so probably not the way you are thinking. I think there are people that like nice condition, but not enough to chase them to the moon.”
Zoins: notice I said pop 25 or 50 coins… the “moon” is not $250 or $300. And, if you really think about it, you will likely realize the absurdity of assuming 100,000,000 “collectors” of a series but not ONE PERSON IN A MILLION willing to pay $250 for a pop top coin! Statistically near impossible IMHO UNLESS……..
there are no where close to 100,000,000 collectors by any definition much beyond a “collector” putting a state quarter in one’s drawer from the state they are from and forgetting about it for 5 or 10 or 20 years. Maybe 25,000,000 could have done that - possibly.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
The vast majority of the people referred to by the mint will never pay more than face value for a coin and have never set foot in a coin store. There's nothing wrong with that in my opinion. People don't have to buy slabs to collect.
Nothing wrong with putting coins away in a drawer. That's what I do with ATB quarters. For SHQs, I had a cardboard album.
Regarding moon prices in above $250, the top pop SHQ proofs did really well so there is demand for those.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
I don't see what math has to do with it. There's no reason that CAC ever has to include all modern clad. Eagle Eye doesn't do anything but cents, for example.
Otherwise eventually they’ll be nothing left to CAC coupled with the emerging modern clad market brought on by the newest generation of collectors.
Simple math the only question is when.
Thanks for the info on cents, I’ll check them out.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
I don't see what math has to do with it. There's no reason that CAC ever has to include all modern clad. Eagle Eye doesn't do anything but cents, for example.
Otherwise eventually they’ll be nothing left to CAC coupled with the emerging modern clad market brought on by the newest generation of collectors.
Simple math the only question is when.
Thanks for the info on cents, I’ll check them out.
Except that CAC is awholesale operation. If they don't want to deal in the issues, they don't want to CAC them. Further, you're assuming a new generation of clad collectors when there is no certainty such a market exists. Finally, CAC exists because of respect for JA. His retirement might make it more likely they simply stop using new stickers rather than get into new markets. Remember, CAC does not make any money on stickering.
I am tempted to buy one of the 1969 Mint sets with some moderately tarnished quarters to see if a dip in Tarnex can salvage them. I think I'll go for it. I will post the results and some images of the before and after if I can.
@Catbert said:
While CAC grades Ike’s and memorial cents, my supposition still stands that JA’s team isn’t craving to do CK’s beloved quarters, etc.
I expect Kennedy halves are next. Next would seem to be the Jefferson Nickel, quite a few FS collectors. Then maybe the silver FDR if classified as modern series.
@wondercoin said:
“There are probably fewer than a few hundred and a few thousand chBU's still outside of collections but it wholesales for only $4. Gems aren't much higher.”
Now, here is where we must agree to disagree as the original Mintage of roughly 1,900,000+ likely still has well over 1,000,000 uncut (and unsearched for chBU) 1975 mint sets (I think you agreed with this number already). Of those 1,000,000+ sets, there are likely a hundred thousand chBU coins, if not closer to 150,000+ IMHO. A far cry from your prediction of just “a few thousand”. Your gem prediction is likely off as well by a meaningful multiple.
Just my 2 cents.
My statement was more hyperbolic than I really intended. But right now this very moment a large percentage of the 8 or 900,000 surviving sets have tarnished Ikes. Of course most of these could be salvaged if they were soaked right now but this is highly improbable. I'm kindda counting attrition that hasn't even happened yet. Of course it won't happen if singles prices soar.
You don't seem to be familiar with the TPG population data.
PCGS and NGC have graded almost 7,000 71-P Ike dollars with the vast majority MS-64 or better, almost 90%. An MS-64 might not meet your standards but it does for practically all others and there is no supply constraint on MS-65's anyway.
Same idea for the 1983-P quarter where about 2800 have been graded, also mostly in MS-64 or better. This isn't low either, especially for a coin which didn't have mint sets.
The number for all other Ike dates is somewhat less to noticeably more. For the silver and proofs, large to very large counts up to in the tens of thousands. The series is quite popular with collectors but since the supply is not low, the series preference will have to increase noticeably to move the price level noticeably higher.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
I don't see what math has to do with it. There's no reason that CAC ever has to include all modern clad. Eagle Eye doesn't do anything but cents, for example.
Otherwise eventually they’ll be nothing left to CAC coupled with the emerging modern clad market brought on by the newest generation of collectors.
Simple math the only question is when.
Thanks for the info on cents, I’ll check them out.
Except that CAC is awholesale operation. If they don't want to deal in the issues, they don't want to CAC them. Further, you're assuming a new generation of clad collectors when there is no certainty such a market exists. Finally, CAC exists because of respect for JA. His retirement might make it more likely they simply stop using new stickers rather than get into new markets. Remember, CAC does not make any money on stickering.
I did not realize most of that and had assumed a friend or family member would carry the torch upon his retirement.
Now, I have a respect for him! But respect doesn’t pay the bills and again assume companies AND individuals profit to the tune of millions of dollars annually because of it.
They recently raised the rate but not enough as far as I’m concerned.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
I don't see what math has to do with it. There's no reason that CAC ever has to include all modern clad. Eagle Eye doesn't do anything but cents, for example.
Otherwise eventually they’ll be nothing left to CAC coupled with the emerging modern clad market brought on by the newest generation of collectors.
Simple math the only question is when.
Thanks for the info on cents, I’ll check them out.
Except that CAC is awholesale operation. If they don't want to deal in the issues, they don't want to CAC them. Further, you're assuming a new generation of clad collectors when there is no certainty such a market exists. Finally, CAC exists because of respect for JA. His retirement might make it more likely they simply stop using new stickers rather than get into new markets. Remember, CAC does not make any money on stickering.
I did not realize most of that and had assumed a friend or family member would carry the torch upon his retirement.
Now, I have a respect for him! But respect doesn’t pay the bills and again assume companies AND individuals profit to the tune of millions of dollars annually because of it.
They recently raised the rate but not enough as far as I’m concerned.
They claim to have a (secret) succession plan. It remains to be seen who it is and whether the market will give CAC the same respect in a post- JA era.
@koynekwest said:
Here's an image of the set I'll get-
All of these coins are damaged. Did you have to look long to find a bad one or were they all like that?
I've never tried Tarnex but experience tells me the vast majority of '69's that look like this will be fine after a soak. A few like these will have white spots and these will neither grade nor be wholesalable. The one cent coins are far less likely to be OK. At least one in four will have various problems even if caught early.
Comments
I don't know. I never thought about it so probably not the way you are thinking. I think there are people that like nice condition, but not enough to chase them to the moon.
If they toned amazing colors on the other hand....
I do see a lot more people interested in the silver versions, regardless of whether they were slabbed or not, toned or not.
If only CAC stickered them... Then we'd know how many superb gem 1969-D quarters there truly are versus those merely wearing a fancy label. Until then they all remain CACless wonders.
If it is good enough for CAC, it is good enough for me.
Until then, I'm out.
(tongue in cheek)
There's a bit more plot evolution than in this thread... and fewer made up statistics.
Can't you MAC them instead of CAC them?
No one cares what the ASA Accugrade guy thinks.
I didn't mean to imply that they did.
“I don't know. I never thought about it so probably not the way you are thinking. I think there are people that like nice condition, but not enough to chase them to the moon.”
Zoins: notice I said pop 25 or 50 coins… the “moon” is not $250 or $300. And, if you really think about it, you will likely realize the absurdity of assuming 100,000,000 “collectors” of a series but not ONE PERSON IN A MILLION willing to pay $250 for a pop top coin! Statistically near impossible IMHO UNLESS……..
there are no where close to 100,000,000 collectors by any definition much beyond a “collector” putting a state quarter in one’s drawer from the state they are from and forgetting about it for 5 or 10 or 20 years. Maybe 25,000,000 could have done that - possibly.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
“If only CAC stickered them... Then we'd know how many superb gem 1969-D quarters there truly are versus those merely wearing a fancy label. Until then they all remain CACless wonders. >:)o:) “
First, I like CAC very much. For one thing, it can help newbies avoid big mistakes if they follow some basic principles.
That said- second, the rare date is 69-P, not 69-D. And, I already know how many superb gems exist and how many are “wearing a fancy label”.
Third- I want to collect and buy all my coins BEFORE CAC joins the party. For, once they join the party, the great coins will likely rise is price while the crap coins for the grade will likely drop in price. I want to avoid buying the crap now and fill my coffers with the great coins. A very simple formula for success IMHO.
Just my 2 cents,
Wondercoin
UNLESS……..
This was the extent of my collecting SQ, in 1999. I lost interest after that. I did make the effort to place the coins in Safeflips and still have it.
MAC is apparently building an on-line museum of South African Union coinage, on eBay.
“I did make the effort to place the coins in Safeflips and still have it.”
Of my (high) estimated 25,000,000, probably less than 1% went that far! You were clearly by most folks definition a “collector”.
Wondercoin
So do you think CAC hurts collectors by increasing the price substantially when they would have been better served by learning to grade on their own all along and pocketing the difference? In other words, do you agree that there is a CAC tax for the newbies?
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I can see CAC for moderns eventually, outside of the Ike dollar.
“So do you think CAC hurts collectors by increasing the price substantially when they would have been better served by learning to grade on their own all along and pocketing the difference? In other words, do you agree that there is a CAC tax for the newbies?”
I already said I believe CAC is helpful to newbie collectors.
Many newbie collectors will never learn to “grade on their own”. Ditto for more experienced collectors as well. I’ve seen far too many “below average” quality #1 or #2 registry sets of classics and moderns over the years.
Hence, I do not subscribe to the view that newbies pay a “CAC tax”. For one thing, does one ever pay a “tax” if one (newbie or experienced) can possibly get it all back “in spades” at the time of resale? Not “tax” in the way being suggested here I suspect.
Wondercoin
Can you imagine the torture that JA's team would undergo if they had to review clads? I can't see it happening.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I would add
1. Almost no one grades as well as they think.
2. even people who grade a series or two expertly might struggle in other series.
I can tell if my roof is leaking. A home inspector can probably tell if my roof is going to leak in 5 years. Paying for an expert opinion is not a tax, it's a service.
Tax as used here = surcharge or premium for security, convenience, quasi-guarantee, etc. I do consider that a tax that all property owners inevitably pay.
As for getting it back, if it is beaned when you purchase it and you are able to sell a profit, I think the increase is from asset appreciation and not the warranty.
He'd be bored. Then again, I'm not sure how he isn't bored looking at thousands of common date, low grade UNC Morgan Dollars that are blast white either. I wouldn't relish that part of the job either.
It's happening for Ike dollars to my knowledge.
But not nearly enough for a mass market.
There aren't even enough to duplicate the Ike market and it's just tiny. As proof that it's tiny consider the '76 type I. It probably had a mintage of fewer than 40,000 Gems and fewer than 4,000,000 nice chBU coins. There are probably fewer than a few hundred and a few thousand chBU's still outside of collections but it wholesales for only $4. Gems aren't much higher.
The supply is ample for current demand but the demand is exploding and few coins will hit the market even at much higher prices.
Moby Dick might be more appropriate since most people can't get past page 80.
But at least Ikes are big coins. I think it is easier on the eyes.
It's a die variety even though it's collected as part of the date/MM set since it is so short. Not sure why this is unusual.
I also would not consider the Ike market that small. Most of the prices are low, but that's because the number of graded coins is not. Most Ike's have larger TPG populations than most silver Washington quarters.
The populations must also have increased noticeably. Years ago (maybe five) when there was an Ike dollar thread on the NGC forum, the 71-P had a PCGS count of 61 in MS-66. Now it is 110 with 1 in 67. MS-65 is over 1100.
As a large coin, I think the series has better potential than all other US modern series but the actual supply given the prices must be a noticeable multiple of current TPG counts, outside of the lower count condition census grades.
The point is that you paid it when you bought it and the person who bought it from you paid it back. No net "tax" paid.
Considering you paid x + 30% surcharge to sell for $Y and could have bought the coin at x before and sold it to a knowledgeable collector for a premium $Y, you’re not getting back the lost profit.
If it sells for x+30 the first time, presumably it also sells for x+30 the second time. It's still a CAC.
You're assuming you could have bought it for x and sold it for x+30%. And maybe you could, if you CACed it yourself or found the right buyer. But you are turning it into an apples to oranges comparison.
Then there's also a PCGS tax. You could have bought it for x-30 raw and then sold it for x+30.
Imagine the torture modern graders would have grading classics where MS 64 means something different in each series?
It also prevents the dealer from buying it from the unsuspecting collector for x in the first place. The dealer has to pay x+30% to acquire it. In that sense, it is insurance not a tax. You're assuming a savvy collector taking advantage of a dealer rather than a savvy dealer taking advantage of a collector.
“@Catbert said:
Can you imagine the torture that JA's team would undergo if they had to review clads? I can't see it happening.
Imagine the torture modern graders would have grading classics where MS 64 means something different in each series?”
WCC is correct that CAC has been grading clad Ikes for years and years now. Not to mention Memorial cents. How far off in time can Kennedy 50C be? Or, 1903-1912 United States Phil. pesos for that matter (that routinely now sell for upwards of $40,000-$50,000++) !
Wondercoin
“There are probably fewer than a few hundred and a few thousand chBU's still outside of collections but it wholesales for only $4. Gems aren't much higher.”
Now, here is where we must agree to disagree as the original Mintage of roughly 1,900,000+ likely still has well over 1,000,000 uncut (and unsearched for chBU) 1975 mint sets (I think you agreed with this number already). Of those 1,000,000+ sets, there are likely a hundred thousand chBU coins, if not closer to 150,000+ IMHO. A far cry from your prediction of just “a few thousand”. Your gem prediction is likely off as well by a meaningful multiple.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
While CAC grades Ike’s and memorial cents, my supposition still stands that JA’s team isn’t craving to do CK’s beloved quarters, etc.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
It’s only business strike Ikes and select DDOs for the cents if I am not mistaken.
I would think Silver Roosevelt’s and maybe the Philippine issues would come before clad quarters. On the other hand, CAC could add an annoyance fee and charge $30/coin for clad and see if there are any takers.
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
I don't see what math has to do with it. There's no reason that CAC ever has to include all modern clad. Eagle Eye doesn't do anything but cents, for example.
My statement was more hyperbolic than I really intended. But right now this very moment a large percentage of the 8 or 900,000 surviving sets have tarnished Ikes. Of course most of these could be salvaged if they were soaked right now but this is highly improbable. I'm kindda counting attrition that hasn't even happened yet. Of course it won't happen if singles prices soar.
These sets are not truly "unsearched". Certainly many of the sets on the market are unsearched but a lot more of the sets held by the public are searched. While wholesalers cut sets they do search them first. In the old days this was mostly just for cameos and varieties but now days I'm sure they check for almost everything. I've seen promotions for rolls of S/S '70 cents and these most probably came from mint sets. They were asking good money for them, too.
Be this as it may the fact remains sets are being snapped up by wholesalers for exactly this coin and it remains to be seen if they get enough that prices come back down to earth.
The vast majority of the people referred to by the mint will never pay more than face value for a coin and have never set foot in a coin store. There's nothing wrong with that in my opinion. People don't have to buy slabs to collect.
Nothing wrong with putting coins away in a drawer. That's what I do with ATB quarters. For SHQs, I had a cardboard album.
Regarding moon prices in above $250, the top pop SHQ proofs did really well so there is demand for those.
Otherwise eventually they’ll be nothing left to CAC coupled with the emerging modern clad market brought on by the newest generation of collectors.
Simple math the only question is when.
Thanks for the info on cents, I’ll check them out.
Except that CAC is awholesale operation. If they don't want to deal in the issues, they don't want to CAC them. Further, you're assuming a new generation of clad collectors when there is no certainty such a market exists. Finally, CAC exists because of respect for JA. His retirement might make it more likely they simply stop using new stickers rather than get into new markets. Remember, CAC does not make any money on stickering.
I am tempted to buy one of the 1969 Mint sets with some moderately tarnished quarters to see if a dip in Tarnex can salvage them. I think I'll go for it. I will post the results and some images of the before and after if I can.
Here's an image of the set I'll get-
I expect Kennedy halves are next. Next would seem to be the Jefferson Nickel, quite a few FS collectors. Then maybe the silver FDR if classified as modern series.
The rest, I don't see any time soon.
You don't seem to be familiar with the TPG population data.
PCGS and NGC have graded almost 7,000 71-P Ike dollars with the vast majority MS-64 or better, almost 90%. An MS-64 might not meet your standards but it does for practically all others and there is no supply constraint on MS-65's anyway.
Same idea for the 1983-P quarter where about 2800 have been graded, also mostly in MS-64 or better. This isn't low either, especially for a coin which didn't have mint sets.
The number for all other Ike dates is somewhat less to noticeably more. For the silver and proofs, large to very large counts up to in the tens of thousands. The series is quite popular with collectors but since the supply is not low, the series preference will have to increase noticeably to move the price level noticeably higher.
I did not realize most of that and had assumed a friend or family member would carry the torch upon his retirement.
Now, I have a respect for him! But respect doesn’t pay the bills and again assume companies AND individuals profit to the tune of millions of dollars annually because of it.
They recently raised the rate but not enough as far as I’m concerned.
They claim to have a (secret) succession plan. It remains to be seen who it is and whether the market will give CAC the same respect in a post- JA era.
All of these coins are damaged. Did you have to look long to find a bad one or were they all like that?
I've never tried Tarnex but experience tells me the vast majority of '69's that look like this will be fine after a soak. A few like these will have white spots and these will neither grade nor be wholesalable. The one cent coins are far less likely to be OK. At least one in four will have various problems even if caught early.
600!
Wondercoin