You don't seem to be familiar with the TPG population data.
PCGS and NGC have graded almost 7,000 71-P Ike dollars with the vast majority MS-64 or better, almost 90%. An MS-64 might not meet your standards but it does for practically all others and there is no supply constraint on MS-65's anyway.
Same idea for the 1983-P quarter where about 2800 have been graded, also mostly in MS-64 or better. This isn't low either, especially for a coin which didn't have mint sets.
The number for all other Ike dates is somewhat less to noticeably more. For the silver and proofs, large to very large counts up to in the tens of thousands. The series is quite popular with collectors but since the supply is not low, the series preference will have to increase noticeably to move the price level noticeably higher.
There are certainly a lot more MS-64 '71 Ikes than I'd have predicted. These didn't appear in mint sets and were saved in large quantities but most look very bad. It's one of the many moderns where you have to look through a lot of coins to find a nice one. Even chBU's don't appear in some rolls and most of the best rolls will have only 10 or 15.
Ikes generally look like crap. Nice ones are something else. I've got 300ish tossed aside, the nicest of several thousand I kept when I had a bank that was ordering me bags of ikes.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
I've made this point before but it might bear repeating;
About 10% of 1970 mint sets include the '70-S sm dt cent. This coin is worth some $40 by itself and was released for circulation as well. Not everyone collects it but there is good demand for it in or out of the set. It's been known since very early on so attrition is not extremely high (probably no more than half). This means there are 50,000 in existence for this $40 coin.
Now consider a nice "gemmy" 1970 quarter. For all practical purposes all were put into mint sets but there has been no demand so few survive and most are lost or permanently degraded. Most of the rest are tarnished. This coin had half the mintage of the sm dt and almost every quarter collector needs the date. Very few collections will just omit this date. Despite the low mintage, lower survival rate, and potentially far higher demand the an MS-64 '70 quarter wholesales for 50c, or at least it would wholesale for 50c if there were a real wholesale market since this is the BU roll price.
This shows the tiny size of the market. Memorial cents are very lightly collected and the quarters are much more lightly collected than even a variety of the cent!!! Of course it doesn't help that the Redbook which grossly overstates the values of classic lists this coin at 1 to $4. What collector will want to pay anything for an MS-64 when the MS-65 lists at $4? Of course it's highly unlikely you can find a graded MS-65 for $4.
Part of the reason there is no market is that the guides list every coin as being common so most collectors believe they are common. The few who still want to collect them either won't buy the better coins because they are grossly overpriced according to Redbook or because they can't find them. Without mint sets they will turn to nontraditional venues for the coins and these supplies will be wiped out in short order. Don't forget that mint sets are the origin of most moderns so other collectors like Ike, cent, and dime collectors will also be looking to new sources.
@wondercoin said:
“There are coins out there and I know where a lot of them are.”
Now we’re talking!
I'd rather not say too much about this because it might embarrass the holders or even impact their activities. Some of these I've seen in articles over the decades and some I can see non-wholesalers buying lots of mint sets. While some of these are probably "jobbers" I doubt they all are. I've talked to people and have second hand reports. The coin papers have spoken of other hoards over the years such as a New Jersey vending machine owner who set aside an entire bag set through at least 1984. There are rumors of an entire pallet of 1982-D quarters from the Kansas City FED that was intercepted from circulation.
There are people out there who have set aside coins. But don't forget in 1970 a US dollar was still worth a lot of money and few people had the ability to be setting aside rolls and bags. And certainly this could not possibly have been widespread because there are no rolls hitting the market. If it had been widespread there would be steady stream of such coins but there's not even a trickle.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
I don't see what math has to do with it. There's no reason that CAC ever has to include all modern clad. Eagle Eye doesn't do anything but cents, for example.
Otherwise eventually they’ll be nothing left to CAC coupled with the emerging modern clad market brought on by the newest generation of collectors.
Simple math the only question is when.
Thanks for the info on cents, I’ll check them out.
Except that CAC is awholesale operation. If they don't want to deal in the issues, they don't want to CAC them. Further, you're assuming a new generation of clad collectors when there is no certainty such a market exists. Finally, CAC exists because of respect for JA. His retirement might make it more likely they simply stop using new stickers rather than get into new markets. Remember, CAC does not make any money on stickering.
I did not realize most of that and had assumed a friend or family member would carry the torch upon his retirement.
Now, I have a respect for him! But respect doesn’t pay the bills and again assume companies AND individuals profit to the tune of millions of dollars annually because of it.
They recently raised the rate but not enough as far as I’m concerned.
They claim to have a (secret) succession plan. It remains to be seen who it is and whether the market will give CAC the same respect in a post- JA era.
It would be foolish to do nothing or to assume the market would not except CAC even after JA‘s departure.
Just as long as the same base principles applied, only CACing the best.
However, I might add an additional sticker for a super super gem extra extraordinary that you would only see one in every thousand passed coins.
The customer that was lucky enough to get it would also receive a premium charge.
You don't seem to be familiar with the TPG population data.
PCGS and NGC have graded almost 7,000 71-P Ike dollars with the vast majority MS-64 or better, almost 90%. An MS-64 might not meet your standards but it does for practically all others and there is no supply constraint on MS-65's anyway.
Same idea for the 1983-P quarter where about 2800 have been graded, also mostly in MS-64 or better. This isn't low either, especially for a coin which didn't have mint sets.
The number for all other Ike dates is somewhat less to noticeably more. For the silver and proofs, large to very large counts up to in the tens of thousands. The series is quite popular with collectors but since the supply is not low, the series preference will have to increase noticeably to move the price level noticeably higher.
There are certainly a lot more MS-64 '71 Ikes than I'd have predicted. These didn't appear in mint sets and were saved in large quantities but most look very bad. It's one of the many moderns where you have to look through a lot of coins to find a nice one. Even chBU's don't appear in some rolls and most of the best rolls will have only 10 or 15.
I'm not sure why it's more than you would have expected. It's evident from the population counts collectors do like the series or else someone would not have paid to grade so many. It's somewhat over 100,000 for the clad circulation strike at both services.
Mintage for the 71-P was 47MM, the coins saw limited circulation and unlike clad quarters, aren't likely to be dumped into circulation now in large numbers. Most non-collectors probably don't recognize it as a US circulating coin unless they are near 50 (if even then) and due to the size, certainly won't use it.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Of all the mathematicians present I’m surprised how few realize that CAC must (at some point) include all modern clad.
They don’t really hate it like Catbert does, they just know he does.
The numbers are always moving and there not going backwards.
I don't see what math has to do with it. There's no reason that CAC ever has to include all modern clad. Eagle Eye doesn't do anything but cents, for example.
Otherwise eventually they’ll be nothing left to CAC coupled with the emerging modern clad market brought on by the newest generation of collectors.
Simple math the only question is when.
Thanks for the info on cents, I’ll check them out.
Except that CAC is awholesale operation. If they don't want to deal in the issues, they don't want to CAC them. Further, you're assuming a new generation of clad collectors when there is no certainty such a market exists. Finally, CAC exists because of respect for JA. His retirement might make it more likely they simply stop using new stickers rather than get into new markets. Remember, CAC does not make any money on stickering.
I did not realize most of that and had assumed a friend or family member would carry the torch upon his retirement.
Now, I have a respect for him! But respect doesn’t pay the bills and again assume companies AND individuals profit to the tune of millions of dollars annually because of it.
They recently raised the rate but not enough as far as I’m concerned.
They claim to have a (secret) succession plan. It remains to be seen who it is and whether the market will give CAC the same respect in a post- JA era.
It would be foolish to do nothing or to assume the market would not except CAC even after JA‘s departure.
Just as long as the same base principles applied, only CACing the best.
However, I might add an additional sticker for a super super gem extra extraordinary that you would only see one in every thousand passed coins.
The customer that was lucky enough to get it would also receive a premium charge.
Again:
CAC makes zero money on the stickers.
JA is the finalized for ALL coins that come through.
It is not a mathematical certainty that the successor gets the same cachet as JA. It is definitely not a mathematical certainty that they start doing moderns.
How many moderns are worth spending $15 to sticker?
I think you have to get outside the box a little bit. The days of raw moderns are over in terms of going out and buying two or 300 sets on the fly.
But in terms of where they are and how it relates to the collecting hobby they are in their infancy,
Denver Colorado circa 1916, you could’ve bought a bottle of triple X for a dime at the local saloon. Today you could get a truckload for that same dime.
@CoinscratchFever said:
I think you have to get outside the box a little bit. The days of raw moderns are over in terms of going out and buying two or 300 sets on the fly.
But in terms of where they are and how it relates to the collecting hobby they are in their infancy,
Denver Colorado circa 1916, you could’ve bought a bottle of triple X for a dime at the local saloon. Today you could get a truckload for that same dime.
That is the kind of comparison that will lose people a lot of money. There is no comparison of moderns to 1916-D dimes.
You can still buy 2000 year old Chinese cash coins for a buck. You can still buy 2000 year old ancient Roman coins for 3 bucks. It is NOT a mathematical certainty that moderns become more popular. In fact, there is the possibility that the golden age of moderns has come and gone.
Chinese? Roman? In the realm of American numismatics I think you would struggle to find any 100-year-old coin that has not increased in value.
Obviously with conditional rarity in play.
@jmlanzaf said:
In fact, there is the possibility that the golden age of moderns has come and gone.
I would agree with this except there are an exploding number of collectors. Certainly it might stop before all moderns are worth more than ever before but it seems improbable. Who knows where the peak will be but it's most probably before us rather than behind.
“Are you familiar with the Ike Group? Is it still around?”
Very familiar. Good group of folks. Many have gone in different directions after all the years, but you will learn a lot on the site. Some of the members still right here.
Likewise, if you want to learn almost anything about Roosies, clad and silver, just stop over to the registry forum and join the ongoing threads that have been discussing them literally for a couple decades now!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@SanctionII said:
Does anyone have any statistics on the extent to which coin collecting increased during Covid 19 and the lockdowns arising from same?
This was a BIG deal. Sunday supplement advertising doubled and it marked the beginning of the largest price increases.
Earlier it was asked how my estimate of 100,000 1983-P BU quarters was determined. I'm afraid I had intended answering the question in an earlier post but neglected to and then the answer provided for another question was conflated with it by readers.
There are not 100,000 eagle reverse clad collectors. It's much lower and closer to 20,000. If you counted even those who were merely filling folders and albums it would be so high though.
There are numerous ways to know how many of the '83-P quarters were saved and I use them all but the most accurate is really pretty simple. No type "d" quarters appear in souvenir sets that have a known mintage and relatively high survivorship of 10,000. Since about 20% of mintage was type "d" it is a simple matter of seeing how many too many aren't type "d" and doing the math. This will involve several assumptions but experience shows me the assumptions are probably valid and I'm just seeking an estimate anyway.
100,000 is just the number that was set aside in 1983 and '84 as singles, rolls and mint sets. It doesn't include millions of sliders, AU's and AU/ XF coins set aside since. The attrition on the 100,000 is not high but is significant because dealers and price guides would have people believe these are common. Some do get spent or destroyed in fires, floods, etc. Some are also tarnished or otherwise degraded. Some are lost and likely to degrade before they are found.
Many of these coins even when they are pristine are very ugly coins. They have strike issues and were made by worn dies. A lot are additionally heavily marked. I'd call about 50,000 of the original number "chBU" and 75% survive in pristine condition. That's only around 1000 rolls and hardly enough to prime the pump even if they were available. Most rolls have been broken up to supply the demand for singles and even the mint sets are being broken up for singles.
A lot of estimation is just a study of proportions.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Chinese? Roman? In the realm of American numismatics I think you would struggle to find any 100-year-old coin that has not increased in value.
Obviously with conditional rarity in play.
Except moderns are 60+ years old with minimal interest. The point is that there is no reason why there ever needs to be a demand increase. The very fact that the U.S. is a mature market actually argues against an increase in "moderns" not for such an inevitable rise.
Except moderns are 60+ years old with minimal interest. The point is that there is no reason why there ever needs to be a demand increase. The very fact that the U.S. is a mature market actually argues against an increase in "moderns" not for such an inevitable rise.
There's no reason anyone has ever needed to collect US coins yet almost all of us here do.
If the market isn't growing then why are prices going up?
“Mintage for the 71-P was 47MM, the coins saw limited circulation and unlike clad quarters, aren't likely to be dumped into circulation now in large numbers. Most non-collectors probably don't recognize it as a US circulating coin unless they are near 50 (if even then) and due to the size, certainly won't use it.”
WCC - I believe you may be missing a very big point. CASINOS used these Ike dollars in their slot machines for a couple decades! Not only was Vegas using them since the 1970’s, but, in 1978 (right at the tail end of the Ike dollar series) Atlantic City opened its doors to all the slot players, adding incredible demand for these coins. The Ike dollars were used until at least 1996 in the slots as board members reported getting them out of slot machines back then. Can you imagine the toll that a couple decades of slot machine use had on business strike Ikes! This “circulation” was anything but “limited”.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
“Mintage for the 71-P was 47MM, the coins saw limited circulation and unlike clad quarters, aren't likely to be dumped into circulation now in large numbers. Most non-collectors probably don't recognize it as a US circulating coin unless they are near 50 (if even then) and due to the size, certainly won't use it.”
WCC - I believe you may be missing a very big point. CASINOS used these Ike dollars in their slot machines for a couple decades! Not only was Vegas using them since the 1970’s, but, in 1978 (right at the tail end of the Ike dollar series) Atlantic City opened its doors to all the slot players, adding incredible demand for these coins. The Ike dollars were used until at least 1996 in the slots as board members reported getting them out of slot machines back then. Can you imagine the toll that a couple decades of slot machine use had on business strike Ikes! This “circulation” was anything but “limited”.
@CoinscratchFever said:
Chinese? Roman? In the realm of American numismatics I think you would struggle to find any 100-year-old coin that has not increased in value.
Obviously with conditional rarity in play.
Except moderns are 60+ years old with minimal interest. The point is that there is no reason why there ever needs to be a demand increase. The very fact that the U.S. is a mature market actually argues against an increase in "moderns" not for such an inevitable rise.
Internet, flood of NCLT, inflated price level, and changing demographics almost certainly = noticeably lower proportion of US based collectors choosing 20th century US coinage. It's not like there isn't a lot of other choices to buy.
I'd expect the size of the US collector base to have to expand noticeably just to keep the base for this coinage flat longer term. I don't expect this either.
How this impacts any particular coin or series - if it happens - is another consideration.
@wondercoin said:
“How many moderns are worth $15?”
I’d personally give CAC between 1,000 -2,000 modern coins @ $15/successful sticker to start things off in all the different coin series.
Wondercoin
I forgot to mention toned coins earlier. This might have the most interest for CAC potential, though limiting submissions to this criteria might prove problematic.
@koynekwest said:
Here's an image of the set I'll get-
All of these coins are damaged. Did you have to look long to find a bad one or were they all like that?
I've never tried Tarnex but experience tells me the vast majority of '69's that look like this will be fine after a soak. A few like these will have white spots and these will neither grade nor be wholesalable. The one cent coins are far less likely to be OK. At least one in four will have various problems even if caught early.
Nearly all listed had problem quarters, which is where my attention was focused. The cents are, of course, beyond redemption but maybe the rest will work.
Except moderns are 60+ years old with minimal interest. The point is that there is no reason why there ever needs to be a demand increase. The very fact that the U.S. is a mature market actually argues against an increase in "moderns" not for such an inevitable rise.
There's no reason anyone has ever needed to collect US coins yet almost all of us here do.
If the market isn't growing then why are prices going up?
The price of EVERYTHING in the coin realm has been going up. I don't see any evidence that clad is going up any more than MS65 Morgan dollars.
The price of EVERYTHING in the coin realm has been going up. I don't see any evidence that clad is going up any more than MS65 Morgan dollars.
The premium on mint sets is soaring. Sure prices have only doubled or tripled but the premiums are up very sharply. This is important to anyone who thinks he can capture the premium on sets by selling Gems, varieties, and chBU's.
It looks like a lot of the increase is likely caused by "priming the mint set pump". I just learned Amazon and Walmart along with sundry other companies are now stocking the sets. It surprised me back when Bob Vila was selling them but this is probably much bigger. These sets can all disappear pretty fast as evidenced by the fact so many sellers are out of the tough dates like the '69 and the '71.
Sets being sold even now are often busted up and most of the coins, especially the quarters and dimes, being spent.
This has all happened very very recently so any market moving with such rapidity might not be done.
The price of EVERYTHING in the coin realm has been going up. I don't see any evidence that clad is going up any more than MS65 Morgan dollars.
The premium on mint sets is soaring. Sure prices have only doubled or tripled but the premiums are up very sharply. This is important to anyone who thinks he can capture the premium on sets by selling Gems, varieties, and chBU's.
It looks like a lot of the increase is likely caused by "priming the mint set pump". I just learned Amazon and Walmart along with sundry other companies are now stocking the sets. It surprised me back when Bob Vila was selling them but this is probably much bigger. These sets can all disappear pretty fast as evidenced by the fact so many sellers are out of the tough dates like the '69 and the '71.
Sets being sold even now are often busted up and most of the coins, especially the quarters and dimes, being spent.
This has all happened very very recently so any market moving with such rapidity might not be done.
I don't know about doubled. But even if they have, so has the price of 64/65 Morgan dollars.
I don't know about doubled. But even if they have, so has the price of 64/65 Morgan dollars.
The base value of a morgan dollar is about $20 for the silver in it. If it goes from 100 to $200 the premium has gone from $80 to $180 or about 225% increase. A $4 mint set moving to $12 has a premium that increased from 17c to $8.17 or an increase of nearly 50 fold.
That 40c MS-66 '72-D quarter we were talking about earlier just might garner a lot of that increase over the next months.
I think were going to be seeing some remarkable increases in BU roll prices, at least for half dollars and dollars. Again though, the real potential is in cents, nickels, dimes, and quarters. These have not been saved to the degree the larger coins have.
I don't know about doubled. But even if they have, so has the price of 64/65 Morgan dollars.
The base value of a morgan dollar is about $20 for the silver in it. If it goes from 100 to $200 the premium has gone from $80 to $180 or about 225% increase. A $4 mint set moving to $12 has a premium that increased from 17c to $8.17 or an increase of nearly 50 fold.
That 40c MS-66 '72-D quarter we were talking about earlier just might garner a lot of that increase over the next months.
I think were going to be seeing some remarkable increases in BU roll prices, at least for half dollars and dollars. Again though, the real potential is in cents, nickels, dimes, and quarters. These have not been saved to the degree the larger coins have.
It should be interesting in any case.
This premium calculation is really a bit silly. You can argue that a $5 mint set containing $4.75 in change going to $6 is a 500% increase in premium, but it is just a $5 set moving to $6 which is a 20% price change. Nobody got rich on the move. You did not achieve a 500% increase in value and it is rather disingenous.
I don't know about doubled. But even if they have, so has the price of 64/65 Morgan dollars.
The base value of a morgan dollar is about $20 for the silver in it. If it goes from 100 to $200 the premium has gone from $80 to $180 or about 225% increase. A $4 mint set moving to $12 has a premium that increased from 17c to $8.17 or an increase of nearly 50 fold.
That 40c MS-66 '72-D quarter we were talking about earlier just might garner a lot of that increase over the next months.
I think were going to be seeing some remarkable increases in BU roll prices, at least for half dollars and dollars. Again though, the real potential is in cents, nickels, dimes, and quarters. These have not been saved to the degree the larger coins have.
It should be interesting in any case.
This premium calculation is really a bit silly. You can argue that a $5 mint set containing $4.75 in change going to $6 is a 500% increase in premium, but it is just a $5 set moving to $6 which is a 20% price change. Nobody got rich on the move. You did not achieve a 500% increase in value and it is rather disingenous.
He's used the same reasoning numerous times with world "moderns". Price changes which aren't meaningful but are in the 000s% from a very low base.
He's used the same reasoning numerous times with world "moderns". Price changes which aren't meaningful but are in the 000s% from a very low base.
The hobby is not about investing and I would not suggest anyone should invest in coins or and collectible. The perils are simply too extreme.
This being said "investing" isn't about making big scores on expensive stocks or riding out a bond fund until it's well into the black. It's about percentage increases. If a coin goes up 40,000% it's pretty tough to beat in equities or anywhere else. Sure you could have bought out of the money oil producers back in 1973 but few people did. You could have bought Xerox in 1955 but this was a rarity as well. I never understood why you believe a Russian mint set purchased in 1991 for a few dollars is no good at a few thousand dollars. It really doesn't matter how you double an investment. The only thing that counts (other than opportunity costs) is the %age increase.
Ralph Cramden had a curse; "May your rich uncle die and leave you a million dollars... ...in bus tokens. Russian mint sets aren't quite equivalent to bus tokens, however.
He's used the same reasoning numerous times with world "moderns". Price changes which aren't meaningful but are in the 000s% from a very low base.
The hobby is not about investing and I would not suggest anyone should invest in coins or and collectible. The perils are simply too extreme.
This being said "investing" isn't about making big scores on expensive stocks or riding out a bond fund until it's well into the black. It's about percentage increases. If a coin goes up 40,000% it's pretty tough to beat in equities or anywhere else. Sure you could have bought out of the money oil producers back in 1973 but few people did. You could have bought Xerox in 1955 but this was a rarity as well. I never understood why you believe a Russian mint set purchased in 1991 for a few dollars is no good at a few thousand dollars. It really doesn't matter how you double an investment. The only thing that counts (other than opportunity costs) is the %age increase.
Ralph Cramden had a curse; "May your rich uncle die and leave you a million dollars... ...in bus tokens. Russian mint sets aren't quite equivalent to bus tokens, however.
And a $5 proof set moving to $6 is a 20% increase not a 500% increase. That is why the "increase in premium" is nonsense.
To use your stock metaphor, if Xerox has a book value of $20 and sells for $25 and then moves to $30, you achieve a 20% profit not 100% increase over book value.
By your logic, a $30 Morgan is with less than a $15 Buffalo nickel because the Morgan is $10 over melt (50% over melt) while the nickel is $14.95 over face (29500% over face). Sorry. $30 is more than$15.
He's used the same reasoning numerous times with world "moderns". Price changes which aren't meaningful but are in the 000s% from a very low base.
The hobby is not about investing and I would not suggest anyone should invest in coins or and collectible. The perils are simply too extreme.
I agree.
@cladking said:
This being said "investing" isn't about making big scores on expensive stocks or riding out a bond fund until it's well into the black. It's about percentage increases. If a coin goes up 40,000% it's pretty tough to beat in equities or anywhere else.
This is where I disagree with you. Any coin that goes up 40,000% isn't going to be worth a meaningful price over 99% of the time, except to someone like you. That's 10c to $40 or something like it.
It's possible to cherrypick or CRH coins like this on occasion and yes, a VERY low proportion of collectors may be able to do it often enough to replicate what I did (at lower returns) with South African coinage. It's not going to hardly ever happen for anyone with the coins which are the subject of this thread.
Still, at least with US coinage, there is a greater prospect of some scale due to the size of the collector base as opposed to world "moderns".
As I explained to you, these world "moderns" aren't worth anywhere near what you seem to believe. Earlier you cited the East Germany 1950E 10P. The NGC MS-63 is up for sale on eBay right now for $599. (The other MS in their census is a 64.) The listing claims catalog of $1100 yet the NGC Price Guide has it at $75 in a 63 and $375 in a 65. (It doesn't matter since it's all just "made up" anyway.)
My inference is that it either isn't really that scarce in this type of quality (a virtual certainty with a mintage of 16.5MM) or it has a very low collector preference. After all, it's a base metal, small coin that probably isn't really that scarce with an ugly unappealing design. Unless there is a sale to prove otherwise, I'm guessing it might be worth somewhat more than $75 but likely noticeably less than $375.
Same idea with the vast majority of this coinage. The 1950 New Zealand 6P and shilling (which is a pre-decimal base metal coin, not a "modern") you once told me you own is an exception and I presume you have some US moderns that you will sell for good money too. Otherwise, I don't recall you mentioning anything else that I consider financially "meaningful".
“I just learned Amazon and Walmart along with sundry other companies are now stocking the sets.”
Coin dealers sell on Amazon just as they sell on eBay, etc. I see sets offered out on Amazon at nearly double the levels they are routinely fetching on eBay. The Amazon offered sets may be selling like hot cakes or not selling at all. There might even be cheaper sets offered at Amazon - I didn’t take the time to research everything. I’m not all that interested in doing further research on the subject. Obviously, if someone pays around $30 for a 1996 mint set that sells for $14 on eBay right this minute, they will likely be buried in their purchase for the next 10 or more years. Probably no different than paying double for a classic coin buying at the highest price somewhere instead of the lowest price.
But, there is nothing I see out there suggesting to me that the mint set or proof set market is “on fire”. Or, the returns are outperforming other coin segments. Sure, they are healthy markets, just as Morgan dollars and silver eagles are healthy markets right now.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@jmlanzaf said:
That is why the "increase in premium" is nonsense.
Very very few mint sets are or have even been purchased because they contained one of every denomination and mint mark since they were originally purchased from the mint. They are bought for specific coins in them usually. Of course some buyers might want every specific coin or they might just want the Ikes regardless of what they look like but the coins in a mint set are not created equally. Now is their availability equal. you can't equate the value of an ugly and tarnished 1969 quarter with a Gem 1988 rr 50c coin.
While most mint sets were just being destroyed with none of the coins saved through the decades there were some individual coins being saved by some collectors. Simply stated when the premium was low or nonexistent due to lack of demand there were more people cutting up sets because of the low premium. Some were saving the desirable coins and the only cost was the premium plus the face value. In very recent times the market was paying people to destroy these sets; ie- the premium was much lower than the value of coins in the sets plus the face value of the other coins.
Of course dealers were buying sets at a negative premium. The wholesale price of sets worth 3.82 face value was under face value and the dealers were paying 90% of this (or even less). This meant vast percentages of coins that went into coin shops were destroyed. Few dealer appreciated the potential of these coins and didn't even bother saving Gems.
Almost no dealer will be destroying mint sets going forward except for specific reasons because this premium has increased many fold. The coins in a 1969 mint set are worth only about $7 even if they are all chBU which, of course, they are not. This means a loss if the typical set is destroyed. These markets will have to evolve to reflect actual values but for right now the premiums for the first time are protecting the sets. But wholesalers still have a little stock they bought at far lower prices which might be susceptible.
Eventually every set will reflect the aggregate value of the coins in it (plus a premium for nice sets) but until then there will still be lots of bargains and more demand for the pieces.
Eventually every set will reflect the aggregate value of the coins in it (plus a premium for nice sets) but until then there will still be lots of bargains and more demand for the pieces.
I doubt it and not just for US moderns but generally. Coins aren't an "efficient" market. There are occasions where I have read that intact sets sell for a premium but that's because finding it is actually difficult. An example being a pre-1936 US where the coins have a matched appearance.
Otherwise, the individual value presumably includes a mark-up for "handling time" which will make any common set noticeably more expensive and less appealing. Most of these sets (even "nice") are interchangeable to most collectors and when it isn't, they are still likely to be more interested in the quality and eye appeal of the individual coins.
But, there is nothing I see out there suggesting to me that the mint set or proof set market is “on fire”. Or, the returns are outperforming other coin segments. Sure, they are healthy markets, just as Morgan dollars and silver eagles are healthy markets right now.
There are no longer any dealers just selling the sets cheap. These guys come closest but the prices are still significantly higher than in the recent past.
They also apparently have a significant stock where many of the higher priced sources are out of key dates. For now I'm going to consider these prices to be "wholesale".
eBay prices are often lower but the supply is shallow and prices are not like they were in the very recent past.
I believe what we're seeing is the early stages of a broad based increase where some participants don't even realize that demand has finally overtaken the massive supply that once existed. Some unlucky collectors will have difficulty finding the sets they want at the current price and will scramble to find them. Then, of course many will receive their sets and find the specific coins they wanted in them are tarnished or can't even be cleaned.
If true that demand has exceeded supply then we will find out in short order that much of the apparent supply has simply gone bad. Where there is no wholesale market collectors will be forced to buy singles and even these are not so numerous as people believe because sets were spent.
Mint sets as a category have never really been strong before. Specific dates have often been strong but not the category. I believe soaring demand and even lower supply than the little in evidence is just the beginning. The only thing that has ever held the price in check is paltry demand and vast supply. That sets are going up is the last of a long series of road signs. From here there will be enough collector demand to separate the wheat from the chaff. We'll soon see that there are plenty of '72-D quarters that look nice but not so many '71's. Demand will lift the scarcest coins higher.
Eventually every set will reflect the aggregate value of the coins in it (plus a premium for nice sets) but until then there will still be lots of bargains and more demand for the pieces.
I doubt it and not just for US moderns but generally. Coins aren't an "efficient" market. There are occasions where I have read that intact sets sell for a premium but that's because finding it is actually difficult. An example being a pre-1936 US where the coins have a matched appearance.
Otherwise, the individual value presumably includes a mark-up for "handling time" which will make any common set noticeably more expensive and less appealing. Most of these sets (even "nice") are interchangeable to most collectors and when it isn't, they are still likely to be more interested in the quality and eye appeal of the individual coins.
I would never suggest that anyone hold sets to garner a premium someday. Even 25 years ago when I believed the packaging was fairly stable there was little point in saving mediocre sets. Today I would strongly advise people to cut just about any pre-1985 sets and soak the coins (especially any with tarnish). But the day will come where there is at least a small premium for a nice choice original set in pristine condition.
I saved dozens of very choice sets in safety deposit boxes over the years. Most of these also tarnished so I'm not saving any.
But, there is nothing I see out there suggesting to me that the mint set or proof set market is “on fire”. Or, the returns are outperforming other coin segments. Sure, they are healthy markets, just as Morgan dollars and silver eagles are healthy markets right now.
There are no longer any dealers just selling the sets cheap. These guys come closest but the prices are still significantly higher than in the recent past.
They also apparently have a significant stock where many of the higher priced sources are out of key dates. For now I'm going to consider these prices to be "wholesale".
eBay prices are often lower but the supply is shallow and prices are not like they were in the very recent past.
I believe what we're seeing is the early stages of a broad based increase where some participants don't even realize that demand has finally overtaken the massive supply that once existed. Some unlucky collectors will have difficulty finding the sets they want at the current price and will scramble to find them. Then, of course many will receive their sets and find the specific coins they wanted in them are tarnished or can't even be cleaned.
If true that demand has exceeded supply then we will find out in short order that much of the apparent supply has simply gone bad. Where there is no wholesale market collectors will be forced to buy singles and even these are not so numerous as people believe because sets were spent.
Mint sets as a category have never really been strong before. Specific dates have often been strong but not the category. I believe soaring demand and even lower supply than the little in evidence is just the beginning. The only thing that has ever held the price in check is paltry demand and vast supply. That sets are going up is the last of a long series of road signs. From here there will be enough collector demand to separate the wheat from the chaff. We'll soon see that there are plenty of '72-D quarters that look nice but not so many '71's. Demand will lift the scarcest coins higher.
But, there is nothing I see out there suggesting to me that the mint set or proof set market is “on fire”. Or, the returns are outperforming other coin segments. Sure, they are healthy markets, just as Morgan dollars and silver eagles are healthy markets right now.
There are no longer any dealers just selling the sets cheap. These guys come closest but the prices are still significantly higher than in the recent past.
They also apparently have a significant stock where many of the higher priced sources are out of key dates. For now I'm going to consider these prices to be "wholesale".
eBay prices are often lower but the supply is shallow and prices are not like they were in the very recent past.
I believe what we're seeing is the early stages of a broad based increase where some participants don't even realize that demand has finally overtaken the massive supply that once existed. Some unlucky collectors will have difficulty finding the sets they want at the current price and will scramble to find them. Then, of course many will receive their sets and find the specific coins they wanted in them are tarnished or can't even be cleaned.
If true that demand has exceeded supply then we will find out in short order that much of the apparent supply has simply gone bad. Where there is no wholesale market collectors will be forced to buy singles and even these are not so numerous as people believe because sets were spent.
Mint sets as a category have never really been strong before. Specific dates have often been strong but not the category. I believe soaring demand and even lower supply than the little in evidence is just the beginning. The only thing that has ever held the price in check is paltry demand and vast supply. That sets are going up is the last of a long series of road signs. From here there will be enough collector demand to separate the wheat from the chaff. We'll soon see that there are plenty of '72-D quarters that look nice but not so many '71's. Demand will lift the scarcest coins higher.
Those prices are NOT wholesale.
Maybe not but some of them are lower than bids I've seen.
It's the fact they have quantities that is so surprising. I don't know any other source for quantities.
“They also apparently have a significant stock where many of the higher priced sources are out of key dates. For now I'm going to consider these prices to be "wholesale".”
CK: A couple points- first, it’s good to see dealers with “significant stock” of these clad mint sets. You had been suggesting (for 600+ posts) that these sets were extremely difficult to find these days. A board member just ordered 45 sets in one clean swoop, including quantity of a few of your favorite dates! There are sets on that dealer’s list where my buy price on the dealer network for that specific date was right around, or even higher, than his listed price! Some are well over my buy prices too of course.
Second, I was recently offered a very fresh deal of 1962-1964 silver mint sets. I recall it was around 70-80 units of them. When I simply offered the dealer “full bid” for the sets, he politely pointed out I was basically paying what worn down circulated silver was selling for by the bag! And, he was right- I was buying lovely Unc. silver Franklin 50C and Kennedy coins and essentially offering the price of VG worn down silver dimes or quarters! I added a couple dollars a set and bought the deal. But, here we even have nearly 60 year old silver mint sets trading at close to melt! These mint sets - even silver sets from the 60s, are certainly not “on fire”.
While some of us agree many of these sets are a “good value” at current levels, what I do with the better part of nearly $40,000 of these (newly purchased) sets purchased in less than a month now is quite another story. At some point, I might get entirely “flooded” with the sets (not just up to my neck) and shut off the buying taps entirely! Maybe I’ve got one more month of buying left. My screeners are so backed up now with work that I am making Boeing’s backlog of airplane building look punny! 😂
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I just got the 1969 Mint set today. There's not much spotting even tho it looks evident in the seller's images but nearly all the coins are covered in a white milky film. I'll give 'em a dip sometime next week with before and after images.
@wondercoin said:
A couple points- first, it’s good to see dealers with “significant stock” of these clad mint sets.
Yes. I think it's extremely important that quantities exist or there would be a disorderly market. Remember if two thirds of the sets are destroyed it still leaves 600,000 sets. I'm not trying to redefine "scarce" as 600,000. I am merely suggesting that at any given time a limited number are available for retail sales AND that there are already too few to support a mass market. 600,000 mostly very ugly and usually tarnished '69-P quarters is far short of what's needed for collectors of chBU if a mass market is really beginning to develop as I suggest. Even if all 600,000 became available in the next few years it could fall short. They simply aren't going to become available so quickly because so many are held by the original purchasers and the general public.
You had been suggesting (for 600+ posts) that these sets were extremely difficult to find these days. A board member just ordered 45 sets in one clean swoop, including quantity of a few of your favorite dates! There are sets on that dealer’s list where my buy price on the dealer network for that specific date was right around, or even higher, than his listed price! Some are well over my buy prices too of course.
I hope he gets them. Additionally I hope they are nice and he's as happy with the purchase in a year as he is now.
There exists far far more potential demand than 45 sets.
Second, I was recently offered a very fresh deal of 1962-1964 silver mint sets. I recall it was around 70-80 units of them. When I simply offered the dealer “full bid” for the sets, he politely pointed out I was basically paying what worn down circulated silver was selling for by the bag! And, he was right- I was buying lovely Unc. silver Franklin 50C and Kennedy coins and essentially offering the price of VG worn down silver dimes or quarters! I added a couple dollars a set and bought the deal. But, here we even have nearly 60 year old silver mint sets trading at close to melt! These mint sets - even silver sets from the 60s, are certainly not “on fire”.
I like the old mint sets but the silver sets are simply not of the quality that modern sets are. Well, the coins might be nicer but all the coins were nicer in those days and the ones in circulation are very comparable to mint set coins. There's no particular reason to buy old mint sets because it's very easy to buy BU rolls of every coin in the sets and the quality is the same.
Modern mint sets are different in two primary ways; They are the only source for most moderns and they have far better quality, People didn't set aside BU rolls of '69 quarters but they saved most of the mintage of '55-D quarters. If you want a nice '55-D just buy a few rolls and your odds are excellent. If you wanted a nice '69 back in '69 you weren't going to find them looking in rolls and you still aren't because there are no rolls. In '69 you could buy about 120 mint sets and get a nice Gem. You'd also have a couple nice chBU rolls and a roll of clunkers to spend.
Today, it is not so easy to just lay your hands on the ~150 mint sets you'd need and then you'd have to clean all these. Many would be spotted but if you were lucky the nicest coin would be OK.
While some of us agree many of these sets are a “good value” at current levels, what I do with the better part of nearly $40,000 of these (newly purchased) sets purchased in less than a month now is quite another story. At some point, I might get entirely “flooded” with the sets (not just up to my neck) and shut off the buying taps entirely! Maybe I’ve got one more month of buying left. My screeners are so backed up now with work that I am making Boeing’s backlog of airplane building look punny! 😂
I used to figure about one set in a thousand would have a super Gem. Of course my primary concern was always strike and these spectacular strikes aren't always clean. They only tend toward clean.
@koynekwest said:
I just got the 1969 Mint set today. There's not much spotting even tho it looks evident in the seller's images but nearly all the coins are covered in a white milky film. I'll give 'em a dip sometime next week with before and after images.
The milky film is the early stages of blotchy. The ones that turn the whitest and the darkest are the least likely to clean. I use 91% isopropyl usually but have been mixing it up recently. Just don't let them sit in a high water content bath for long or they'll spot.
@CoinscratchFever said: @cladking Thanks for the info, I just ordered from Golden Eagle 45 sets including 10 each of '68 & '69. I'll get back with results.
Good luck.
I believe they have the stock but you might not know for sure until Monday.
@CoinscratchFever said: @cladking Thanks for the info, I just ordered from Golden Eagle 45 sets including 10 each of '68 & '69. I'll get back with results.
Good luck.
I believe they have the stock but you might not know for sure until Monday.
I feel pretty confident they have what I ordered as their website detailed the ones that were out of stock and excepted the quantities I added to the cart for in stock.
I found it interesting that the newer sets were much higher than the older.
I don’t remember exactly but I paid like 7 to 9 dollars a set for the 69’s which is about 50% cheaper than I’ve purchased them in the past from antique dealers and pawn shops.
I didn’t mind that either with the hopes of catching a wild card.
The 25 other sets I purchased were either years that the Lincoln cent had varieties or just years that I need for my set.
@CoinscratchFever said: @cladking Thanks for the info, I just ordered from Golden Eagle 45 sets including 10 each of '68 & '69. I'll get back with results.
Good luck.
I believe they have the stock but you might not know for sure until Monday.
I feel pretty confident they have what I ordered as their website detailed the ones that were out of stock and excepted the quantities I added to the cart for in stock.
I found it interesting that the newer sets were much higher than the older.
I don’t remember exactly but I paid like 7 to 9 dollars a set for the 69’s which is about 50% cheaper than I’ve purchased them in the past from antique dealers and pawn shops.
I didn’t mind that either with the hopes of catching a wild card.
The 25 other sets I purchased were either years that the Lincoln cent had varieties or just years that I need for my set.
Greysheet bid on a 1969 Mint set is $5. I've never sold one retail for more than $6. FWiW
@CoinscratchFever said: @cladking Thanks for the info, I just ordered from Golden Eagle 45 sets including 10 each of '68 & '69. I'll get back with results.
Good luck.
I believe they have the stock but you might not know for sure until Monday.
I feel pretty confident they have what I ordered as their website detailed the ones that were out of stock and excepted the quantities I added to the cart for in stock.
I found it interesting that the newer sets were much higher than the older.
I don’t remember exactly but I paid like 7 to 9 dollars a set for the 69’s which is about 50% cheaper than I’ve purchased them in the past from antique dealers and pawn shops.
I didn’t mind that either with the hopes of catching a wild card.
The 25 other sets I purchased were either years that the Lincoln cent had varieties or just years that I need for my set.
Greysheet bid on a 1969 Mint set is $5. I've never sold one retail for more than $6. FWiW
It's just in the last month this has been going on.
I'm guessing you don't sell many of these retail. I'm guessing you periodically ship them off to one of the wholesalers.
Comments
There are certainly a lot more MS-64 '71 Ikes than I'd have predicted. These didn't appear in mint sets and were saved in large quantities but most look very bad. It's one of the many moderns where you have to look through a lot of coins to find a nice one. Even chBU's don't appear in some rolls and most of the best rolls will have only 10 or 15.
Ikes generally look like crap. Nice ones are something else. I've got 300ish tossed aside, the nicest of several thousand I kept when I had a bank that was ordering me bags of ikes.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
I've made this point before but it might bear repeating;
About 10% of 1970 mint sets include the '70-S sm dt cent. This coin is worth some $40 by itself and was released for circulation as well. Not everyone collects it but there is good demand for it in or out of the set. It's been known since very early on so attrition is not extremely high (probably no more than half). This means there are 50,000 in existence for this $40 coin.
Now consider a nice "gemmy" 1970 quarter. For all practical purposes all were put into mint sets but there has been no demand so few survive and most are lost or permanently degraded. Most of the rest are tarnished. This coin had half the mintage of the sm dt and almost every quarter collector needs the date. Very few collections will just omit this date. Despite the low mintage, lower survival rate, and potentially far higher demand the an MS-64 '70 quarter wholesales for 50c, or at least it would wholesale for 50c if there were a real wholesale market since this is the BU roll price.
This shows the tiny size of the market. Memorial cents are very lightly collected and the quarters are much more lightly collected than even a variety of the cent!!! Of course it doesn't help that the Redbook which grossly overstates the values of classic lists this coin at 1 to $4. What collector will want to pay anything for an MS-64 when the MS-65 lists at $4? Of course it's highly unlikely you can find a graded MS-65 for $4.
Part of the reason there is no market is that the guides list every coin as being common so most collectors believe they are common. The few who still want to collect them either won't buy the better coins because they are grossly overpriced according to Redbook or because they can't find them. Without mint sets they will turn to nontraditional venues for the coins and these supplies will be wiped out in short order. Don't forget that mint sets are the origin of most moderns so other collectors like Ike, cent, and dime collectors will also be looking to new sources.
I'd rather not say too much about this because it might embarrass the holders or even impact their activities. Some of these I've seen in articles over the decades and some I can see non-wholesalers buying lots of mint sets. While some of these are probably "jobbers" I doubt they all are. I've talked to people and have second hand reports. The coin papers have spoken of other hoards over the years such as a New Jersey vending machine owner who set aside an entire bag set through at least 1984. There are rumors of an entire pallet of 1982-D quarters from the Kansas City FED that was intercepted from circulation.
There are people out there who have set aside coins. But don't forget in 1970 a US dollar was still worth a lot of money and few people had the ability to be setting aside rolls and bags. And certainly this could not possibly have been widespread because there are no rolls hitting the market. If it had been widespread there would be steady stream of such coins but there's not even a trickle.
It would be foolish to do nothing or to assume the market would not except CAC even after JA‘s departure.
Just as long as the same base principles applied, only CACing the best.
However, I might add an additional sticker for a super super gem extra extraordinary that you would only see one in every thousand passed coins.
The customer that was lucky enough to get it would also receive a premium charge.
I'm not sure why it's more than you would have expected. It's evident from the population counts collectors do like the series or else someone would not have paid to grade so many. It's somewhat over 100,000 for the clad circulation strike at both services.
Mintage for the 71-P was 47MM, the coins saw limited circulation and unlike clad quarters, aren't likely to be dumped into circulation now in large numbers. Most non-collectors probably don't recognize it as a US circulating coin unless they are near 50 (if even then) and due to the size, certainly won't use it.
Are you familiar with the Ike Group? Is it still around?
I ask as it's a collector group such as this that has noticeably influenced the demand for other series.
Here is a link to their site but the information seems dated. Yes, inquiring minds want to know.
https://www.ikegroup.info/
Again:
It is not a mathematical certainty that the successor gets the same cachet as JA. It is definitely not a mathematical certainty that they start doing moderns.
How many moderns are worth spending $15 to sticker?
I think you have to get outside the box a little bit. The days of raw moderns are over in terms of going out and buying two or 300 sets on the fly.
But in terms of where they are and how it relates to the collecting hobby they are in their infancy,
Denver Colorado circa 1916, you could’ve bought a bottle of triple X for a dime at the local saloon. Today you could get a truckload for that same dime.
That is the kind of comparison that will lose people a lot of money. There is no comparison of moderns to 1916-D dimes.
You can still buy 2000 year old Chinese cash coins for a buck. You can still buy 2000 year old ancient Roman coins for 3 bucks. It is NOT a mathematical certainty that moderns become more popular. In fact, there is the possibility that the golden age of moderns has come and gone.
Chinese? Roman? In the realm of American numismatics I think you would struggle to find any 100-year-old coin that has not increased in value.
Obviously with conditional rarity in play.
I would agree with this except there are an exploding number of collectors. Certainly it might stop before all moderns are worth more than ever before but it seems improbable. Who knows where the peak will be but it's most probably before us rather than behind.
Does anyone have any statistics on the extent to which coin collecting increased during Covid 19 and the lockdowns arising from same?
“Are you familiar with the Ike Group? Is it still around?”
Very familiar. Good group of folks. Many have gone in different directions after all the years, but you will learn a lot on the site. Some of the members still right here.
Likewise, if you want to learn almost anything about Roosies, clad and silver, just stop over to the registry forum and join the ongoing threads that have been discussing them literally for a couple decades now!
Wondercoin
This was a BIG deal. Sunday supplement advertising doubled and it marked the beginning of the largest price increases.
Earlier it was asked how my estimate of 100,000 1983-P BU quarters was determined. I'm afraid I had intended answering the question in an earlier post but neglected to and then the answer provided for another question was conflated with it by readers.
There are not 100,000 eagle reverse clad collectors. It's much lower and closer to 20,000. If you counted even those who were merely filling folders and albums it would be so high though.
There are numerous ways to know how many of the '83-P quarters were saved and I use them all but the most accurate is really pretty simple. No type "d" quarters appear in souvenir sets that have a known mintage and relatively high survivorship of 10,000. Since about 20% of mintage was type "d" it is a simple matter of seeing how many too many aren't type "d" and doing the math. This will involve several assumptions but experience shows me the assumptions are probably valid and I'm just seeking an estimate anyway.
100,000 is just the number that was set aside in 1983 and '84 as singles, rolls and mint sets. It doesn't include millions of sliders, AU's and AU/ XF coins set aside since. The attrition on the 100,000 is not high but is significant because dealers and price guides would have people believe these are common. Some do get spent or destroyed in fires, floods, etc. Some are also tarnished or otherwise degraded. Some are lost and likely to degrade before they are found.
Many of these coins even when they are pristine are very ugly coins. They have strike issues and were made by worn dies. A lot are additionally heavily marked. I'd call about 50,000 of the original number "chBU" and 75% survive in pristine condition. That's only around 1000 rolls and hardly enough to prime the pump even if they were available. Most rolls have been broken up to supply the demand for singles and even the mint sets are being broken up for singles.
A lot of estimation is just a study of proportions.
How many moderns are worth $15?
Except moderns are 60+ years old with minimal interest. The point is that there is no reason why there ever needs to be a demand increase. The very fact that the U.S. is a mature market actually argues against an increase in "moderns" not for such an inevitable rise.
“How many moderns are worth $15?”
I’d personally give CAC between 1,000 -2,000 modern coins @ $15/successful sticker to start things off in all the different coin series.
Wondercoin
There's no reason anyone has ever needed to collect US coins yet almost all of us here do.
If the market isn't growing then why are prices going up?
“Mintage for the 71-P was 47MM, the coins saw limited circulation and unlike clad quarters, aren't likely to be dumped into circulation now in large numbers. Most non-collectors probably don't recognize it as a US circulating coin unless they are near 50 (if even then) and due to the size, certainly won't use it.”
WCC - I believe you may be missing a very big point. CASINOS used these Ike dollars in their slot machines for a couple decades! Not only was Vegas using them since the 1970’s, but, in 1978 (right at the tail end of the Ike dollar series) Atlantic City opened its doors to all the slot players, adding incredible demand for these coins. The Ike dollars were used until at least 1996 in the slots as board members reported getting them out of slot machines back then. Can you imagine the toll that a couple decades of slot machine use had on business strike Ikes! This “circulation” was anything but “limited”.
Wondercoin
.> @wondercoin said:
Thanks, I did forget about that.
Internet, flood of NCLT, inflated price level, and changing demographics almost certainly = noticeably lower proportion of US based collectors choosing 20th century US coinage. It's not like there isn't a lot of other choices to buy.
I'd expect the size of the US collector base to have to expand noticeably just to keep the base for this coinage flat longer term. I don't expect this either.
How this impacts any particular coin or series - if it happens - is another consideration.
I forgot to mention toned coins earlier. This might have the most interest for CAC potential, though limiting submissions to this criteria might prove problematic.
Nearly all listed had problem quarters, which is where my attention was focused. The cents are, of course, beyond redemption but maybe the rest will work.
The price of EVERYTHING in the coin realm has been going up. I don't see any evidence that clad is going up any more than MS65 Morgan dollars.
The premium on mint sets is soaring. Sure prices have only doubled or tripled but the premiums are up very sharply. This is important to anyone who thinks he can capture the premium on sets by selling Gems, varieties, and chBU's.
It looks like a lot of the increase is likely caused by "priming the mint set pump". I just learned Amazon and Walmart along with sundry other companies are now stocking the sets. It surprised me back when Bob Vila was selling them but this is probably much bigger. These sets can all disappear pretty fast as evidenced by the fact so many sellers are out of the tough dates like the '69 and the '71.
Sets being sold even now are often busted up and most of the coins, especially the quarters and dimes, being spent.
This has all happened very very recently so any market moving with such rapidity might not be done.
I don't know about doubled. But even if they have, so has the price of 64/65 Morgan dollars.
The base value of a morgan dollar is about $20 for the silver in it. If it goes from 100 to $200 the premium has gone from $80 to $180 or about 225% increase. A $4 mint set moving to $12 has a premium that increased from 17c to $8.17 or an increase of nearly 50 fold.
That 40c MS-66 '72-D quarter we were talking about earlier just might garner a lot of that increase over the next months.
I think were going to be seeing some remarkable increases in BU roll prices, at least for half dollars and dollars. Again though, the real potential is in cents, nickels, dimes, and quarters. These have not been saved to the degree the larger coins have.
It should be interesting in any case.
This premium calculation is really a bit silly. You can argue that a $5 mint set containing $4.75 in change going to $6 is a 500% increase in premium, but it is just a $5 set moving to $6 which is a 20% price change. Nobody got rich on the move. You did not achieve a 500% increase in value and it is rather disingenous.
He's used the same reasoning numerous times with world "moderns". Price changes which aren't meaningful but are in the 000s% from a very low base.
>
The hobby is not about investing and I would not suggest anyone should invest in coins or and collectible. The perils are simply too extreme.
This being said "investing" isn't about making big scores on expensive stocks or riding out a bond fund until it's well into the black. It's about percentage increases. If a coin goes up 40,000% it's pretty tough to beat in equities or anywhere else. Sure you could have bought out of the money oil producers back in 1973 but few people did. You could have bought Xerox in 1955 but this was a rarity as well. I never understood why you believe a Russian mint set purchased in 1991 for a few dollars is no good at a few thousand dollars. It really doesn't matter how you double an investment. The only thing that counts (other than opportunity costs) is the %age increase.
Ralph Cramden had a curse; "May your rich uncle die and leave you a million dollars... ...in bus tokens. Russian mint sets aren't quite equivalent to bus tokens, however.
And a $5 proof set moving to $6 is a 20% increase not a 500% increase. That is why the "increase in premium" is nonsense.
To use your stock metaphor, if Xerox has a book value of $20 and sells for $25 and then moves to $30, you achieve a 20% profit not 100% increase over book value.
By your logic, a $30 Morgan is with less than a $15 Buffalo nickel because the Morgan is $10 over melt (50% over melt) while the nickel is $14.95 over face (29500% over face). Sorry. $30 is more than$15.
I agree.
This is where I disagree with you. Any coin that goes up 40,000% isn't going to be worth a meaningful price over 99% of the time, except to someone like you. That's 10c to $40 or something like it.
It's possible to cherrypick or CRH coins like this on occasion and yes, a VERY low proportion of collectors may be able to do it often enough to replicate what I did (at lower returns) with South African coinage. It's not going to hardly ever happen for anyone with the coins which are the subject of this thread.
Still, at least with US coinage, there is a greater prospect of some scale due to the size of the collector base as opposed to world "moderns".
As I explained to you, these world "moderns" aren't worth anywhere near what you seem to believe. Earlier you cited the East Germany 1950E 10P. The NGC MS-63 is up for sale on eBay right now for $599. (The other MS in their census is a 64.) The listing claims catalog of $1100 yet the NGC Price Guide has it at $75 in a 63 and $375 in a 65. (It doesn't matter since it's all just "made up" anyway.)
My inference is that it either isn't really that scarce in this type of quality (a virtual certainty with a mintage of 16.5MM) or it has a very low collector preference. After all, it's a base metal, small coin that probably isn't really that scarce with an ugly unappealing design. Unless there is a sale to prove otherwise, I'm guessing it might be worth somewhat more than $75 but likely noticeably less than $375.
Same idea with the vast majority of this coinage. The 1950 New Zealand 6P and shilling (which is a pre-decimal base metal coin, not a "modern") you once told me you own is an exception and I presume you have some US moderns that you will sell for good money too. Otherwise, I don't recall you mentioning anything else that I consider financially "meaningful".
“I just learned Amazon and Walmart along with sundry other companies are now stocking the sets.”
Coin dealers sell on Amazon just as they sell on eBay, etc. I see sets offered out on Amazon at nearly double the levels they are routinely fetching on eBay. The Amazon offered sets may be selling like hot cakes or not selling at all. There might even be cheaper sets offered at Amazon - I didn’t take the time to research everything. I’m not all that interested in doing further research on the subject. Obviously, if someone pays around $30 for a 1996 mint set that sells for $14 on eBay right this minute, they will likely be buried in their purchase for the next 10 or more years. Probably no different than paying double for a classic coin buying at the highest price somewhere instead of the lowest price.
But, there is nothing I see out there suggesting to me that the mint set or proof set market is “on fire”. Or, the returns are outperforming other coin segments. Sure, they are healthy markets, just as Morgan dollars and silver eagles are healthy markets right now.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Very very few mint sets are or have even been purchased because they contained one of every denomination and mint mark since they were originally purchased from the mint. They are bought for specific coins in them usually. Of course some buyers might want every specific coin or they might just want the Ikes regardless of what they look like but the coins in a mint set are not created equally. Now is their availability equal. you can't equate the value of an ugly and tarnished 1969 quarter with a Gem 1988 rr 50c coin.
While most mint sets were just being destroyed with none of the coins saved through the decades there were some individual coins being saved by some collectors. Simply stated when the premium was low or nonexistent due to lack of demand there were more people cutting up sets because of the low premium. Some were saving the desirable coins and the only cost was the premium plus the face value. In very recent times the market was paying people to destroy these sets; ie- the premium was much lower than the value of coins in the sets plus the face value of the other coins.
Of course dealers were buying sets at a negative premium. The wholesale price of sets worth 3.82 face value was under face value and the dealers were paying 90% of this (or even less). This meant vast percentages of coins that went into coin shops were destroyed. Few dealer appreciated the potential of these coins and didn't even bother saving Gems.
Almost no dealer will be destroying mint sets going forward except for specific reasons because this premium has increased many fold. The coins in a 1969 mint set are worth only about $7 even if they are all chBU which, of course, they are not. This means a loss if the typical set is destroyed. These markets will have to evolve to reflect actual values but for right now the premiums for the first time are protecting the sets. But wholesalers still have a little stock they bought at far lower prices which might be susceptible.
Eventually every set will reflect the aggregate value of the coins in it (plus a premium for nice sets) but until then there will still be lots of bargains and more demand for the pieces.
I doubt it and not just for US moderns but generally. Coins aren't an "efficient" market. There are occasions where I have read that intact sets sell for a premium but that's because finding it is actually difficult. An example being a pre-1936 US where the coins have a matched appearance.
Otherwise, the individual value presumably includes a mark-up for "handling time" which will make any common set noticeably more expensive and less appealing. Most of these sets (even "nice") are interchangeable to most collectors and when it isn't, they are still likely to be more interested in the quality and eye appeal of the individual coins.
There are no longer any dealers just selling the sets cheap. These guys come closest but the prices are still significantly higher than in the recent past.
https://www.goldeneaglecoin.com/proof-sets--mint-sets/uncirculated-mint-sets/uncirculated-mint-sets-1959_date
They also apparently have a significant stock where many of the higher priced sources are out of key dates. For now I'm going to consider these prices to be "wholesale".
eBay prices are often lower but the supply is shallow and prices are not like they were in the very recent past.
I believe what we're seeing is the early stages of a broad based increase where some participants don't even realize that demand has finally overtaken the massive supply that once existed. Some unlucky collectors will have difficulty finding the sets they want at the current price and will scramble to find them. Then, of course many will receive their sets and find the specific coins they wanted in them are tarnished or can't even be cleaned.
If true that demand has exceeded supply then we will find out in short order that much of the apparent supply has simply gone bad. Where there is no wholesale market collectors will be forced to buy singles and even these are not so numerous as people believe because sets were spent.
Mint sets as a category have never really been strong before. Specific dates have often been strong but not the category. I believe soaring demand and even lower supply than the little in evidence is just the beginning. The only thing that has ever held the price in check is paltry demand and vast supply. That sets are going up is the last of a long series of road signs. From here there will be enough collector demand to separate the wheat from the chaff. We'll soon see that there are plenty of '72-D quarters that look nice but not so many '71's. Demand will lift the scarcest coins higher.
I would never suggest that anyone hold sets to garner a premium someday. Even 25 years ago when I believed the packaging was fairly stable there was little point in saving mediocre sets. Today I would strongly advise people to cut just about any pre-1985 sets and soak the coins (especially any with tarnish). But the day will come where there is at least a small premium for a nice choice original set in pristine condition.
I saved dozens of very choice sets in safety deposit boxes over the years. Most of these also tarnished so I'm not saving any.
Those prices are NOT wholesale.
Maybe not but some of them are lower than bids I've seen.
It's the fact they have quantities that is so surprising. I don't know any other source for quantities.
@cladking Thanks for the info, I just ordered from Golden Eagle 45 sets including 10 each of '68 & '69. I'll get back with results.
“They also apparently have a significant stock where many of the higher priced sources are out of key dates. For now I'm going to consider these prices to be "wholesale".”
CK: A couple points- first, it’s good to see dealers with “significant stock” of these clad mint sets. You had been suggesting (for 600+ posts) that these sets were extremely difficult to find these days. A board member just ordered 45 sets in one clean swoop, including quantity of a few of your favorite dates! There are sets on that dealer’s list where my buy price on the dealer network for that specific date was right around, or even higher, than his listed price! Some are well over my buy prices too of course.
Second, I was recently offered a very fresh deal of 1962-1964 silver mint sets. I recall it was around 70-80 units of them. When I simply offered the dealer “full bid” for the sets, he politely pointed out I was basically paying what worn down circulated silver was selling for by the bag! And, he was right- I was buying lovely Unc. silver Franklin 50C and Kennedy coins and essentially offering the price of VG worn down silver dimes or quarters! I added a couple dollars a set and bought the deal. But, here we even have nearly 60 year old silver mint sets trading at close to melt! These mint sets - even silver sets from the 60s, are certainly not “on fire”.
While some of us agree many of these sets are a “good value” at current levels, what I do with the better part of nearly $40,000 of these (newly purchased) sets purchased in less than a month now is quite another story. At some point, I might get entirely “flooded” with the sets (not just up to my neck) and shut off the buying taps entirely! Maybe I’ve got one more month of buying left. My screeners are so backed up now with work that I am making Boeing’s backlog of airplane building look punny! 😂
Wondercoin
I just got the 1969 Mint set today. There's not much spotting even tho it looks evident in the seller's images but nearly all the coins are covered in a white milky film. I'll give 'em a dip sometime next week with before and after images.
Yes. I think it's extremely important that quantities exist or there would be a disorderly market. Remember if two thirds of the sets are destroyed it still leaves 600,000 sets. I'm not trying to redefine "scarce" as 600,000. I am merely suggesting that at any given time a limited number are available for retail sales AND that there are already too few to support a mass market. 600,000 mostly very ugly and usually tarnished '69-P quarters is far short of what's needed for collectors of chBU if a mass market is really beginning to develop as I suggest. Even if all 600,000 became available in the next few years it could fall short. They simply aren't going to become available so quickly because so many are held by the original purchasers and the general public.
I hope he gets them. Additionally I hope they are nice and he's as happy with the purchase in a year as he is now.
There exists far far more potential demand than 45 sets.
I like the old mint sets but the silver sets are simply not of the quality that modern sets are. Well, the coins might be nicer but all the coins were nicer in those days and the ones in circulation are very comparable to mint set coins. There's no particular reason to buy old mint sets because it's very easy to buy BU rolls of every coin in the sets and the quality is the same.
Modern mint sets are different in two primary ways; They are the only source for most moderns and they have far better quality, People didn't set aside BU rolls of '69 quarters but they saved most of the mintage of '55-D quarters. If you want a nice '55-D just buy a few rolls and your odds are excellent. If you wanted a nice '69 back in '69 you weren't going to find them looking in rolls and you still aren't because there are no rolls. In '69 you could buy about 120 mint sets and get a nice Gem. You'd also have a couple nice chBU rolls and a roll of clunkers to spend.
Today, it is not so easy to just lay your hands on the ~150 mint sets you'd need and then you'd have to clean all these. Many would be spotted but if you were lucky the nicest coin would be OK.
I used to figure about one set in a thousand would have a super Gem. Of course my primary concern was always strike and these spectacular strikes aren't always clean. They only tend toward clean.
The milky film is the early stages of blotchy. The ones that turn the whitest and the darkest are the least likely to clean. I use 91% isopropyl usually but have been mixing it up recently. Just don't let them sit in a high water content bath for long or they'll spot.
Good luck.
I believe they have the stock but you might not know for sure until Monday.
I feel pretty confident they have what I ordered as their website detailed the ones that were out of stock and excepted the quantities I added to the cart for in stock.
I found it interesting that the newer sets were much higher than the older.
I don’t remember exactly but I paid like 7 to 9 dollars a set for the 69’s which is about 50% cheaper than I’ve purchased them in the past from antique dealers and pawn shops.
I didn’t mind that either with the hopes of catching a wild card.
The 25 other sets I purchased were either years that the Lincoln cent had varieties or just years that I need for my set.
Greysheet bid on a 1969 Mint set is $5. I've never sold one retail for more than $6. FWiW
It's just in the last month this has been going on.
I'm guessing you don't sell many of these retail. I'm guessing you periodically ship them off to one of the wholesalers.