True enough, but the seller of the piece currently on eBay is asking for less than the one that sold four months ago.
edited to add... If there are 1,000 sales to work with, I can see throwing out the outliers. If there are only a few sales, how do you (in general, not directed at you personally) justify ignoring any of them?
@MasonG said:
True enough, but the seller of the piece currently on eBay is asking for less than the one that sold four months ago.
edited to add... If there are 1,000 sales to work with, I can see throwing out the outliers. If there are only a few sales, how do you (in general, not directed at you personally) justify ignoring any of them?
You don't ignore them but you also shouldn't feel bound by them.
I don't have a good sense of the modern market for these top pops.
“Well, we sure are on the edge of our seats awaiting the pictures of this magnificent specimen, and more importantly, the ink on the paper in the plastic with it!”
Not relevant to this discussion other than to quickly speak to the blind faith total reliance on any particular PG for any classic or modern coin. The coin I just assisted the collector with buying for 20x PG was a classic coin between 100-200 years old.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
We'll just assume that the specialness, the eye appeal, the Wonder of the piece is so transcendent, that it commands 20x price guide in that grade, and collectors are waiting in line to pay 19x 😉
@wondercoin said:
Not relevant to this discussion other than to quickly speak to the blind faith total reliance on any particular PG for any classic or modern coin.
My mention of the guide price for the '82 quarter wasn't intended to indicate that it was necessarily relevant, let alone "blind faith total reliance". In all fairness to the Price Guide People at PCGS though, there was a sale four months ago at a price higher than what they're listing in their guide.
It’s ok to assume what you want to assume. And, if anyone wants to pay PG for everything, all the best to them. And, for what it’s worth- the eye appeal of the coin at 20X guide I mentioned was nothing very special and it was white, not toned. Believe it or not, PG’s can, and are, off by as much as 10x- 20x on both classics and moderns. And, of course, on overpriced items, a guide can be 50% or more too high as well. But, most seasoned veterans know this and can especially use this knowledge in their specialized numismatic field.
A customer of mine just realized between 11x-12x Guide on a “five figure” coin I recently consigned for him to Heritage and that wasn’t even the best result of his consignment package! Again, not huge differences on hundred dollar coins or even thousand dollar coins, but “five figure” coins. Significant money on that 11x + outperformance of current guide.
Regarding the 1982 quarter specifically, the $465 price (assuming it was a true sale) wasn’t reported in the PCGS PG, doesn’t show on eBay any longer and other recent comps at major auction on that date and grade suggest a different value. But, if someone buys this $425 coin on eBay we will have a good 2021 sales price to work with.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
Regarding the 1982 quarter specifically, the $465 price (assuming it was a true sale) wasn’t reported in the PCGS PG, doesn’t show on eBay any longer and other recent comps at major auction on that date and grade suggest a different value.
I'm sorry what I've provided is not what you would consider worthwhile for valuing the coin. If I might ask, would you care to share some of the sales that you do consider valid?
Mint set retailers are busily raising prices. It hasn't really spread to eBay yet but that won't take long. Some of the increases are quite substantial especially from the standpoint of multiples of face value. It is THIS premium that really drives the wholesale market. More surprisingly (not to me so much) is that some of the biggest sellers are out of several dates.
The supply is a small fraction of what people have thought it was all these years. And some of the coins in these sets just were never saved because they were considered "junk". I believe that a real wholesale market for mint sets is forming right now. This is simply necessary since supply is finally needed for the first time.
You can't really tell till you take them out but all those coins are bad.
The Denver quarter and half dollar probably can't be saved but there's a fair chance most or all the rest can be. One cent coins are hit and miss and it's very hard to predict.
All of these coins except the Philly cent appear to have been nice coins as issued.
@metalmeister said:
Need to go thru my explosion welded clads.
Be sure to wear safety goggles in case any delaminate.
I was mistaken. eBay has already caught on to the higher prices but a few sellers have not. If you look for bargains just remember the '65 to '71, and '75-'80 sets tend to have all or a lot of bad coins. Any date can have some.
MasonG: Last year, both Heritage and Stacks sold an example of the 1982-P MS67 and the Heritage coin realized $360 while the Stacks coin realized $288. GC took in $369 later in 2020 for a 3rd example sold last year if paying with a check. By comparison, the last reported sale of the far more elusive 1983-P quarter in MS67 (a pop 20/1 coin vs. pop 33/1 for 1982-P in that grade) was $288 at Heritage (“Charlie O’s” coin) and more recently at GC at $579 if paying with a check.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Thank you. I notice that GC took in $1133, $461 and $451 for similarly graded coins between 2016 and 2019. It appears this particular coin is not a good example to use if one would like to demonstrate the potential for scarce modern clads to increase in value.
MasonG. And the 1983-P is even worse by a landslide! I have had the #1 Registry set of Clad MS quarters for the past dozen or more years and you will not hear me talking about the profits (or even the potential profits) of building (and keeping) a top set of high grade specimens. Now, if the plan was to buy and flip the coins to a new wealthy collector who entered the competition, that’s another story. Take this 1982-P we are discussing. I was the underbidder (losing by about $10) on the pop 1 MS68 coin at Heritage when it sold the first time. That’s what I figured the coin at - all in. But, when that top #2 or #3 set collector (who bought the coin) decided to sell off and walk away from the collection, the new well to do #2 set collector paid more than double the price to win the coin the second time around. So, of course, I could decide to sell off all my pop 1s, etc. right now and possibly do quite well with those coins. But, I didn’t build the set in the first place for the profit potential. I built it for the great appreciation of just how scarce many of the coins were (and still are) in finest known grade and always preferred adding “home-made” coins to my set wherever possible. That’s the great fun for me of building a top set like these clad quarters; not grabbing the checkbook to buy them all!
But, enough about Clad quarters!
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
I built it for the great appreciation of just how scarce many of the coins were (and still are) in finest known grade...
This is where I think cladking goes off the rails. He's concerned about wholesalers not being able to supply coins for a mass market should demand increase. A mass market for scarce (in grade) coins is not going to happen- ever. I believe he does not recognize how the typical collector approaches the series, which involves balancing price and grade and arriving at a grade that's good enough. Most collectors are not going to insist on only including the best coins in their sets.
@wondercoin said:
and always preferred adding “home-made” coins to my set wherever possible.
As do many, variety collectors in particular. Which is a strike against coins already in plastic, as this type collector prefers to not pay retail for their coins, finding them raw at lower prices instead.
This is where I think cladking goes off the rails. He's concerned about wholesalers not being able to supply coins for a mass market should demand increase. A mass market for scarce (in grade) coins is not going to happen- ever. I believe he does not recognize how the typical collector approaches the series, which involves balancing price and grade and arriving at a grade that's good enough. Most collectors are not going to insist on only including the best coins in their sets.
How many people won't be able to afford $5 for a Gem '72-D quarter so will opt for a scarcer MS-60? chBU and Gem clad quarters and dimes are far too common to get up over a few dollars apiece, probably. Tough dates in vchBU and Gem will by definition go up to the point that supply and demand are in balance. I'm talking about the tough dates. This includes quite a few dates that people don't realize are mostly gone and were never common in the first place. Quarters like the '71 were terrible in the mint set, then they weren't saved, and now most of those still terrible coins are tarnished. Where do you find a nice MS-64 or even or even a nice attractive chBU? I'm simply saying these coins aren't out there in any sort of quantity. Over the years collectors had to find them one or two at a time but almost no one was looking for them. This date is one of the least likely to clean up as well.
I've said for years that all of these coins are far scarcer than people think and unpredictable events have led them to be far scarcer than even I imagined. I'd have never guessed the prices of mint sets would utterly collapse in 2008 during the Great Recession and never recover until the pandemic of 2020. I'd have never guessed that the demand would stay so low right up to the current time. I did not know that many dates of mint set packaging is highly unstable or I wouldn't have to be cleaning them. No matter how closely you watch something events and processes can escape your notice. Indeed, sometimes the closer you watch something the more the changes are observed in fits and starts. One very wise man who didn't survive the pandemic summed this up quite nicely; "Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps". Well... ...it looks like we're suddenly living in the future or at least we're moving there.
Clad dimes and quarters are gone and now the demand is catching up with what's left of them. In the meantime there is still a bidding war going on for the much more popular half dollars and dollars.
@cladking said:
Where do you find a nice MS-64 or even or even a nice attractive chBU? I'm simply saying these coins aren't out there in any sort of quantity.
You. Don't. Get. It.
For the majority of collectors, if they can't find a "nice MS-64 or even or even a nice attractive chBU", they'll take the next grade down and call it good. Most people don't attempt to put together sets of coins that don't exist in numbers that make the task one that can be accomplished.
You keep saying that my definition of "nice attractive specimens" and "chBU" are arbitrary and other collectors will be satisfied with an MS-60. But then you have no idea what an ugly mint set coin looks like. Most are reasonably well struck from reasonably new dies but surfaces of the coins can be a fright. Some of the cents are almost invariably uneven or carbon spotted. Some coins are just covered in chicken scratches which are planchet flaws that were not struck out. There are often scratches and gouges. 50% of some of these dates in mint sets CAN NOT be sold to wholesalers as chBU and this is "as issued". Mint sets are no longer as issued and most have tarnished. So compound 80% tarnish + 50% awful + 70% of the mint sets gone and you'll see a very "common" Ike like the '76 type I only has one coin in 4 sets that can be sold as chBU. And then there's still the fact that so few sets are left.
No, what I am telling you is that it all comes down to price. Collectors have always preferred "better" coins. It doesn't mean they are willing to pay the price you keep implying but won't even state.
@cladking said:
Seeing the future based on things that have already happened is pretty easy. The deficit of mint sets will cause increased price of mint sets. I don't believe that increased prices will increase the available supply sufficiently which would cause half and dollar prices to continue their ascent but it will also increase the rate at which the few surviving sets are being destroyed. Since there is still no wholesale demand for dimes and quarters many of these will be put into circulation. The increased dismantling of sets will increase the supply of dimes and quarters and tend to hold their prices down.
Of course at any time everything can change. Increased attention can increase demand much more and it can also get some of the tarnished coins cleaned up. There's no vast overhang of tarnished coins but they are out there and there are lots of intact mint sets that can be brought back.
There is a difference between change and what you are implying now or at least implied in the past. Again, it comes down to price and again, you won't provide your estimate.
Earlier, you asked my opinion on what I think the scarcer moderns should be worth if I agree a 72-D quarter will sell for $2 in three years.
I answered this in the last "Raw Moderns" thread and I'll give you the same answer now. I don't think more than a very low proportion of 1933 and later US coinage (classic or modern) up to MS-66 should sell for more than a nominal premium to the grading fee or if silver, the metal content. It's based upon my inference that at least 95% are a Judd R-1 with 1250+, whether the TPG counts show it now or not. Many or most with a (noticeable) multiple of 1250 and that most collectors will accept a slightly lower quality coin anyway.
Yes, there is some uncertainty on the actual supply but mostly, collectors either treat this purchase as a hobby expense, or if they don't for the more expensive but still common coins, because they expect to get most of their money back. I infer this anecdotally (from coin forums and elsewhere) as well as the prices being paid. It isn't because they really like what they collect that much most of the time, regardless of what they collect.
Most collectors start by pocket change and collecting current series. They soon find that clad coins dated prior to 1999 are dull and unexciting and the bullion in them not worth the metals that they are minted on. When they discover silver and gold coins, the excitement begins. Bullion coins will always have bullion value, Clad coins will only have face value. The amount of real coin collectors may decrease, but, the amount of bullion collectors will increase. A lot of people need the solidity of gold and silver. There are a lot of people that collect bullion coins, just for bullion values sake. Bullion coins are always liquid, you can sell them at any time for close to bullion value. At this time, most of my collection is collector value coins. I do like most NCLT silvers. Pandas , Maple leafs, American Eagles, etc., etc., but have not purchased many yet.
Another thing, look at all the choices for coin collectors these days. A lot more then even 20 years ago. With all the choices available, why choose dull clad coins?
@rec78 said:
Most collectors start by pocket change and collecting current series. They soon find that clad coins dated prior to 1999 are dull and unexciting and the bullion in them not worth the metals that they are minted on. When they discover silver and gold coins, the excitement begins. Bullion coins with always have bullion value, Clad coins will only have face value. The amount of real coin collectors may decrease, but, the amount of bullion collectors will increase. A lot of people need the solidity of gold and silver. There are a lot of people that collect bullion coins, just for bullion values sake. Bullion coins are always liquid, you can sell them at any time for close to bullion value. At this time, most of my collection is collector value coins. I do like most NCLT silvers. Pandas , Maple leafs, American Eagles, etc., etc., but have not purchased many yet.
Another thing, look at all the choices for coin collectors these days. A lot more then even 20 years ago. With all the choices available, why choose dull clad coins?
I partly agree except for the bullion obsession. There are plenty of copper collectors out there. There are a lot of Kennedy collectors, and they don't stop at 1970.
Other than registry collectors which we can count, who else collects MS67 clad business strike quarters from 1965-1998? There are roughly 200-250 sets between PCGS and NGC. Many are dormant and/or clearly not focused on a finest known set. Do we we believe that there are many dates with fewer than 250 MS66-MS67 coins in existence including those yet to be graded?
The advent of slabs and improved storage also increases the rate of survivors from coinage of previous eras. A decent number of reasonably well preserved coins and lower demand are going to limit prices. In a 100-150 years from now when we’re all dead, who knows?
“With all the choices available, why choose dull clad coins?”
If I have to explain it to you, I am fairly certain you will never appreciate the explanation. That said, I’ll now wait for CK to address your comment in pages and pages of thoughtful analysis.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@cladking is somehow applying a standard to moderns that doesn't exist for Classics. There are no mint sets pre-war. There aren't roll quantities of saved BU coins pre-1900. Yet that hasn't hurt collectors of those series.
There are no rare or even scarce clad coins if you include all grades. The lack of rolls of thousands of chBU examples isn't a problem, just like it hasn't been a problem for large cents.
If you want to argue that MS67 coins will sell for more because of condition scarcity, I won't argue. But once you start arguing for a paucity of lower grade clad coins you lose me. Even just Uncs given the millions of mint sets for some of those years and the thousands of blue book sets out there.
@jmlanzaf said: @cladking is somehow applying a standard to moderns that doesn't exist for Classics. There are no mint sets pre-war. There aren't roll quantities of saved BU coins pre-1900. Yet that hasn't hurt collectors of those series.
There are no rare or even scarce clad coins of you include all grades. The lack of trends of thousands of chBU examples isn't a problem, just like it hasn't been a problem for large cents.
If you want to argue that MS67 coins will sell for more because of condition scarcity, I won't argue. But once you start arguing for a paucity of lower grade clad coins you lose me. Even just Uncs given the millions of mint sets for some of those years and the thousands of blue book sets out there.
I've debated him numerous times elsewhere on this subject. He hasn't made the same claims in this thread but in the past, I had to decipher his premises to interpret what he was actually saying.
If you agree with his premises, then what he says makes sense. I don't because it contradicts practically everything evident in how collectors actually behave, as evidenced in the data we have: prices, TPG data, and anecdotally on coin forums and coin articles.
Immeasurable force meets immovable object. Which prevails?
Neither side will convince the other. Which is right and which is wrong? Beats me; for me there is a lot of unknowns regarding the future of the so called moderns.
@wondercoin said:
I built it for the great appreciation of just how scarce many of the coins were (and still are) in finest known grade...
This is where I think cladking goes off the rails. He's concerned about wholesalers not being able to supply coins for a mass market should demand increase. A mass market for scarce (in grade) coins is not going to happen- ever. I believe he does not recognize how the typical collector approaches the series, which involves balancing price and grade and arriving at a grade that's good enough. Most collectors are not going to insist on only including the best coins in their sets.
@wondercoin said:
and always preferred adding “home-made” coins to my set wherever possible.
As do many, variety collectors in particular. Which is a strike against coins already in plastic, as this type collector prefers to not pay retail for their coins, finding them raw at lower prices instead.
I've cherrypicked nice varieties in plastic a number of times.
@wondercoin said:
I built it for the great appreciation of just how scarce many of the coins were (and still are) in finest known grade...
This is where I think cladking goes off the rails. He's concerned about wholesalers not being able to supply coins for a mass market should demand increase. A mass market for scarce (in grade) coins is not going to happen- ever. I believe he does not recognize how the typical collector approaches the series, which involves balancing price and grade and arriving at a grade that's good enough. Most collectors are not going to insist on only including the best coins in their sets.
@wondercoin said:
and always preferred adding “home-made” coins to my set wherever possible.
As do many, variety collectors in particular. Which is a strike against coins already in plastic, as this type collector prefers to not pay retail for their coins, finding them raw at lower prices instead.
I've cherrypicked nice varieties in plastic a number of times.
But how many times have you paid the premium for the variety IDENTIFIED in plastic (not 55 DDO or 72 DDO or 3-legged varieties). Cherrypicking an unidentified variety in plastic isn't what @masong is talking about.
@cameonut2011 said:
Other than registry collectors which we can count, who else collects MS67 clad business strike quarters from 1965-1998? There are roughly 200-250 sets between PCGS and NGC. Many are dormant and/or clearly not focused on a finest known set. Do we we believe that there are many dates with fewer than 250 MS66-MS67 coins in existence including those yet to be graded?
The advent of slabs and improved storage also increases the rate of survivors from coinage of previous eras. A decent number of reasonably well preserved coins and lower demand are going to limit prices. In a 100-150 years from now when we’re all dead, who knows?
The 71-P quarter has 120 in MS-66 and 8 in MS-67 at PCGS. NGC grade distribution indicates that only a low proportion would successfully cross which if correct, will add a few more. 69-P has 169 and 11, again with somewhat more adding NGC. Some of other dates have fewer than the 69-P but I have never heard anyone comment on the scarcity.
Given the current prices, I conclude that not even one has 200-250 since I don't believe the population data includes many duplicates. My assumption is that these two dates might possibly be a Judd R-2 at best (501-1250) and probably on the lower side. Every other date I presume to be an R-1 with more than 1250.
@wondercoin said:
I built it for the great appreciation of just how scarce many of the coins were (and still are) in finest known grade...
This is where I think cladking goes off the rails. He's concerned about wholesalers not being able to supply coins for a mass market should demand increase. A mass market for scarce (in grade) coins is not going to happen- ever. I believe he does not recognize how the typical collector approaches the series, which involves balancing price and grade and arriving at a grade that's good enough. Most collectors are not going to insist on only including the best coins in their sets.
@wondercoin said:
and always preferred adding “home-made” coins to my set wherever possible.
As do many, variety collectors in particular. Which is a strike against coins already in plastic, as this type collector prefers to not pay retail for their coins, finding them raw at lower prices instead.
I've cherrypicked nice varieties in plastic a number of times.
But how many times have you paid the premium for the variety IDENTIFIED in plastic (not 55 DDO or 72 DDO or 3-legged varieties). Cherrypicking an unidentified variety in plastic isn't what @masong is talking about.
@tincup said:
The beat up horse refused to stay down!
Immeasurable force meets immovable object. Which prevails?
Neither side will convince the other. Which is right and which is wrong? Beats me; for me there is a lot of unknowns regarding the future of the so called moderns.
I've been saying for half a century that there are innumerable scarce moderns in US and world coins. When each country switched to base metal after WWII collectors simply quit saving new coins. Starting about 20 years ago one series after another of world coins began exploding higher in price by 20 to 1000 fold. That's 20 to 1000 TIMES the old price. Despite this success people still insist I'm wrong and either increases aren't "significant" or are impossible because the mintages are so high.
These explosive gains came to high grade moderns back at the end of the last millennium and now it's coming to all scarce US moderns, it would seem.
Again an MS-65 '72-D quarter isn't going to the moon but it will far higher than its current wholesale price of 40c. This is because this coin isn't very scarce but anyone who thinks he can go out and but a roll of these is way off base. You must but 7 or 8 chBU rolls and make your own. Good luck finding even one roll or 40 mint sets. And this is one of the "easiest" old clads.
The horse isn't defying death unless bemusement can be fatal.
@tincup said:
The beat up horse refused to stay down!
Immeasurable force meets immovable object. Which prevails?
Neither side will convince the other. Which is right and which is wrong? Beats me; for me there is a lot of unknowns regarding the future of the so called moderns.
I've been saying for half a century that there are innumerable scarce moderns in US and world coins. When each country switched to base metal after WWII collectors simply quit saving new coins. Starting about 20 years ago one series after another of world coins began exploding higher in price by 20 to 1000 fold. That's 20 to 1000 TIMES the old price. Despite this success people still insist I'm wrong and either increases aren't "significant" or are impossible because the mintages are so high.
These explosive gains came to high grade moderns back at the end of the last millennium and now it's coming to all scarce US moderns, it would seem.
Again an MS-65 '72-D quarter isn't going to the moon but it will far higher than its current wholesale price of 40c. This is because this coin isn't very scarce but anyone who thinks he can go out and but a roll of these is way off base. You must but 7 or 8 chBU rolls and make your own. Good luck finding even one roll or 40 mint sets. And this is one of the "easiest" old clads.
The horse isn't defying death unless bemusement can be fatal.
A lot of the world coin price rises follow the development of the middle class. This dynamic is not present in the US.
I'm also not sure what your CHBU roll obsession is. Pre-1933 coins have neither mint sets nor ch BU rolls available. Even the ones that do have the same picked over problem. But a roll of UNC Mercs and you are likely to get a lot of low end UNCS and even slider AUs because they've been picked over for better coins. So what?
For the majority of collectors, if they can't find a "nice MS-64 or even or even a nice attractive chBU", they'll take the next grade down and call it good. Most people don't attempt to put together sets of coins that don't exist in numbers that make the task one that can be accomplished.
In my opinion a lot of low grade clad is very very ugly. They are struck with tired, worn, and maladjusted dies and are beaten up at the mint. I call some of them "MS-30" because they were made with all the detail of a worn out coin. Most of these coins can not be wholesaled as "chBU". "chBU" essentially represents only lustrous coins in about MS-61 or higher but lots of full luster MS-60's exist in these rolls.
Apparently at least part of the market agrees with me that low grade clad is often ugly. These are not like a roll of mercury dimes where every single coin in most rolls are attractive. This does NOT apply to most moderns and especially not to early clads. Even before the coins tarnished a lot of mint set coins could not be wholesaled as "chBU" and mint set coins tend to be far far nicer than coins made for circulation.
Now almost every single coin made for circulation has been destroyed or degraded to VG condition and all that's left are a few of the mostly tarnished mint sets.
You can't get a coin like a '69 quarter made for circulation. Well at least you couldn't get one if there were demand because there are exceedingly few of them. I'd wager there aren't 4 bags in existence all together. That's fewer than 16,000 coins and almost every one of them looks like junk.
Why would the high price of an MS-65 '72-D quarter (40 cents) drive someone to look for a VF in circulation. Finding a nice VF requires a lot more effort than sending a few dollars to one of the few retailers who sell these. You'll only need to check a few mint sets to find a Gem and it probably won't even be tarnished. It's so common it might be in the first set you check.
Until the price forces people to lower their sights the price will have to get solidly higher than 40c.
I've debated him numerous times elsewhere on this subject. He hasn't made the same claims in this thread but in the past, I had to decipher his premises to interpret what he was actually saying.
If you agree with his premises, then what he says makes sense. I don't because it contradicts practically everything evident in how collectors actually behave, as evidenced in the data we have: prices, TPG data, and anecdotally on coin forums and coin articles.
The bottom line is that the only truly relevant premise is that the mint sets are mostly gone. Everything else is, I believe, just a matter of perspective. People are alike all over and is each a product of his place and time and there is nothing new under the sun including the simple fact that everything is continually changing and evolving. Nobody can predict the future but it's easy enough to look at trends and plot out how things might change if the trends continue. There are only two relevant trends in my opinion; the number of modern collectors is exploding and the only supply for the coins is essentially already depleted. Combined with the current macroeconomic trends it looks like a monster wave in the perfect storm.
But no matter how the future unfolds it will unfold without billions of the coins that our generation has allowed to be lost and degraded. The coins are gone whether the demand really continues to materialize or not.
@cladking said:
In my opinion a lot of low grade clad is very very ugly. They are struck with tired, worn, and maladjusted dies and are beaten up at the mint. I call some of them "MS-30" because they were made with all the detail of a worn out coin. Most of these coins can not be wholesaled as "chBU". "chBU" essentially represents only lustrous coins in about MS-61 or higher but lots of full luster MS-60's exist in these rolls.
Ch BU as understood by most is roughly equivalent to MS63-M@64.
Apparently at least part of the market agrees with me that low grade clad is often ugly. These are not like a roll of mercury dimes where every single coin in most rolls are attractive. This does NOT apply to most moderns and especially not to early clads. Even before the coins tarnished a lot of mint set coins could not be wholesaled as "chBU" and mint set coins tend to be far far nicer than coins made for circulation.
Now almost every single coin made for circulation has been destroyed or degraded to VG condition and all that's left are a few of the mostly tarnished mint sets.
@rec78 said:
Most collectors start by pocket change and collecting current series. They soon find that clad coins dated prior to 1999 are dull and unexciting and the bullion in them not worth the metals that they are minted on.
The new collectors are not as fixated on "bullion".
Coin collectors as a group probably treasure silver and gold more than most people and I'm a big silver bull. Bullion and coin collecting are closely related but hardly the same thing. One can collect indian cents or buffalo nickels without standing out from the crowd (of coin collectors )
I've debated him numerous times elsewhere on this subject. He hasn't made the same claims in this thread but in the past, I had to decipher his premises to interpret what he was actually saying.
If you agree with his premises, then what he says makes sense. I don't because it contradicts practically everything evident in how collectors actually behave, as evidenced in the data we have: prices, TPG data, and anecdotally on coin forums and coin articles.
The bottom line is that the only truly relevant premise is that the mint sets are mostly gone. Everything else is, I believe, just a matter of perspective.
The bottom line is that neither the public nor collectors have the motivation you claim they do, they never did in the past, and you have never provided a single reason why they will in the future either.
People are alike all over and is each a product of his place and time and there is nothing new under the sun including the simple fact that everything is continually changing and evolving. Nobody can predict the future but it's easy enough to look at trends and plot out how things might change if the trends continue. There are only two relevant trends in my opinion; the number of modern collectors is exploding and the only supply for the coins is essentially already depleted. Combined with the current macroeconomic trends it looks like a monster wave in the perfect storm.
>
There is believable change and then there is your claim. Once again, you write in the abstract and now with hyperbole. I have now asked you three times, what prices do you have in mind?
If it's anything similar to your claim in the last "Raw Moderns" thread, it's not a matter of it being a "toss up" whether it will or won't happen. That's exactly what you are implying - again - where supposedly some extremely common US modern with 20,000 survivors in some arbitrary quality is going to sell for hundreds and scarcer ones for far more.
You continue to infer:
1) that the public finds coin collecting a lot more interesting than the evidence actually demonstrates.
2) that the public and collectors are predisposed to prefer their circulating coinage when they do not.
3) that the primary attributes I previously listed (design perception, coin size, metal content, and relative scarcity) either do not matter or are random preferences when there is no basis for such a belief whatsoever.
It will take a radical change in all three - at minimum - for you to be anywhere near correct.
@tincup said:
The beat up horse refused to stay down!
Immeasurable force meets immovable object. Which prevails?
Neither side will convince the other. Which is right and which is wrong? Beats me; for me there is a lot of unknowns regarding the future of the so called moderns.
I've been saying for half a century that there are innumerable scarce moderns in US and world coins. When each country switched to base metal after WWII collectors simply quit saving new coins. Starting about 20 years ago one series after another of world coins began exploding higher in price by 20 to 1000 fold. That's 20 to 1000 TIMES the old price. Despite this success people still insist I'm wrong and either increases aren't "significant" or are impossible because the mintages are so high.
These explosive gains came to high grade moderns back at the end of the last millennium and now it's coming to all scarce US moderns, it would seem.
Again an MS-65 '72-D quarter isn't going to the moon but it will far higher than its current wholesale price of 40c. This is because this coin isn't very scarce but anyone who thinks he can go out and but a roll of these is way off base. You must but 7 or 8 chBU rolls and make your own. Good luck finding even one roll or 40 mint sets. And this is one of the "easiest" old clads.
The horse isn't defying death unless bemusement can be fatal.
A lot of the world coin price rises follow the development of the middle class. This dynamic is not present in the US.
I'm also not sure what your CHBU roll obsession is. Pre-1933 coins have neither mint sets nor ch BU rolls available. Even the ones that do have the same picked over problem. But a roll of UNC Mercs and you are likely to get a lot of low end UNCS and even slider AUs because they've been picked over for better coins. So what?
I have debated him on the potential of world "moderns" many times also. More exaggeration where his posts indicate he doesn't know the actual prices and exaggerates the scarcity. None of this has anything to do with the future prospects for this coinage anyway.
The title of this thread is "The Days of Raw Moderns are Over." For me its just begun. I have started to search rolls again a few months ago, mostly half dollars, after a long hiatus. I just found my first my first two ddo's, a 1971 and 1974, just yesterday. I did find some silver coins even a Franklyn half. Try finding Dansco album #7166 for regular retail price. The price gougers on ebay are selling these for up to $80 and they are selling, the suggested retail price by the Dansco co. is $42.95. Every time there is a limited supply of New Dansco Albums, they instantly sell out. Believe it or not, a lot of BU coins are available for almost all dates in circulation, including all the way back to 1971. I began a Kennedy set a month ago, and have found all but the 1970-D for the Dansco album #7166 (No proofs) with most BU and a few AU coins, all the way back to 1964. All I need is the album, but I will wait until a reasonable price for the album comes along.
@cladking said:
Now almost every single coin made for circulation has been destroyed or degraded to VG condition and all that's left are a few of the mostly tarnished mint sets.
You can't get a coin like a '69 quarter made for circulation. Well at least you couldn't get one if there were demand because there are exceedingly few of them. I'd wager there aren't 4 bags in existence all together. That's fewer than 16,000 coins and almost every one of them looks like junk.
More confusion of the debate. Why would a collector care if the coin comes from a mint set or from circulation? Where is the evidence that anyone does, other maybe you? Even here, this is the first time I recall you using this in your claims
@rec78 said:
Try finding Dansco album #7166 for regular retail price. The price gougers on ebay are selling these for up to $80 and they are selling,
Not following your logic. If they're selling at $80, that's the current retail price.
@rec78 said:
the suggested retail price by the Dansco co. is $42.95.
What the manufacturer suggests is not relevant unless they are selling albums at that price.
Kind of like the old joke...
Customer: "How much is that coin album?"
Merchant: "$80."
Customer: "That's a ripoff! The manufacturer's price is $42.95!"
Merchant: "Why don't you buy one from them?"
Customer: "Well, they're out of stock."
Merchant: "When I'm out of stock, my price is $42.95, too."
@rec78 said:
Try finding Dansco album #7166 for regular retail price. The price gougers on ebay are selling these for up to $80 and they are selling,
Not following your logic. If they're selling at $80, that's the current retail price.
@rec78 said:
the suggested retail price by the Dansco co. is $42.95.
What the manufacturer suggests is not relevant unless they are selling albums at that price.
Kind of like the old joke...
Customer: "How much is that coin album?"
Merchant: "$80."
Customer: "That's a ripoff! The manufacturer's price is $42.95!"
Merchant: "Why don't you buy one from them?"
Customer: "Well, they're out of stock."
Merchant: "When I'm out of stock, my price is $42.95, too."
When the Company states a retail price of $42.95 that is the retail price. Anything over that is price gouging. They do appear once in awhile at $42.95 or less you just have to look at the right time. No worries, i will find one at a lower price. Some supply companies list them at 21.95 but they are all out of stock. I can wait, Dansco hopefully will get back on their feet and resupply companies like Wizard and Amos.
Comments
Still not useful as a guide. Guides work best when there are 1000 sales averaged. Even then individual coins will go higher and lower.
True enough, but the seller of the piece currently on eBay is asking for less than the one that sold four months ago.
edited to add... If there are 1,000 sales to work with, I can see throwing out the outliers. If there are only a few sales, how do you (in general, not directed at you personally) justify ignoring any of them?
You don't ignore them but you also shouldn't feel bound by them.
I don't have a good sense of the modern market for these top pops.
“Well, we sure are on the edge of our seats awaiting the pictures of this magnificent specimen, and more importantly, the ink on the paper in the plastic with it!”
Not relevant to this discussion other than to quickly speak to the blind faith total reliance on any particular PG for any classic or modern coin. The coin I just assisted the collector with buying for 20x PG was a classic coin between 100-200 years old.
Wondercoin
of course.
We'll just assume that the specialness, the eye appeal, the Wonder of the piece is so transcendent, that it commands 20x price guide in that grade, and collectors are waiting in line to pay 19x 😉
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
My mention of the guide price for the '82 quarter wasn't intended to indicate that it was necessarily relevant, let alone "blind faith total reliance". In all fairness to the Price Guide People at PCGS though, there was a sale four months ago at a price higher than what they're listing in their guide.
It’s ok to assume what you want to assume. And, if anyone wants to pay PG for everything, all the best to them. And, for what it’s worth- the eye appeal of the coin at 20X guide I mentioned was nothing very special and it was white, not toned. Believe it or not, PG’s can, and are, off by as much as 10x- 20x on both classics and moderns. And, of course, on overpriced items, a guide can be 50% or more too high as well. But, most seasoned veterans know this and can especially use this knowledge in their specialized numismatic field.
A customer of mine just realized between 11x-12x Guide on a “five figure” coin I recently consigned for him to Heritage and that wasn’t even the best result of his consignment package! Again, not huge differences on hundred dollar coins or even thousand dollar coins, but “five figure” coins. Significant money on that 11x + outperformance of current guide.
Regarding the 1982 quarter specifically, the $465 price (assuming it was a true sale) wasn’t reported in the PCGS PG, doesn’t show on eBay any longer and other recent comps at major auction on that date and grade suggest a different value. But, if someone buys this $425 coin on eBay we will have a good 2021 sales price to work with.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
I'm sorry what I've provided is not what you would consider worthwhile for valuing the coin. If I might ask, would you care to share some of the sales that you do consider valid?
Mint set retailers are busily raising prices. It hasn't really spread to eBay yet but that won't take long. Some of the increases are quite substantial especially from the standpoint of multiples of face value. It is THIS premium that really drives the wholesale market. More surprisingly (not to me so much) is that some of the biggest sellers are out of several dates.
The supply is a small fraction of what people have thought it was all these years. And some of the coins in these sets just were never saved because they were considered "junk". I believe that a real wholesale market for mint sets is forming right now. This is simply necessary since supply is finally needed for the first time.
I just did a search on ebay for 1969 Mint sets. I think this is one of those nasty 1969 quarters you were speaking about.
Here's the Philly set. Bad.
You can't really tell till you take them out but all those coins are bad.
The Denver quarter and half dollar probably can't be saved but there's a fair chance most or all the rest can be. One cent coins are hit and miss and it's very hard to predict.
All of these coins except the Philly cent appear to have been nice coins as issued.
Need to go thru my explosion welded clads.
100% Positive BST transactions
Be sure to wear safety goggles in case any delaminate.
I was mistaken. eBay has already caught on to the higher prices but a few sellers have not. If you look for bargains just remember the '65 to '71, and '75-'80 sets tend to have all or a lot of bad coins. Any date can have some.
MasonG: Last year, both Heritage and Stacks sold an example of the 1982-P MS67 and the Heritage coin realized $360 while the Stacks coin realized $288. GC took in $369 later in 2020 for a 3rd example sold last year if paying with a check. By comparison, the last reported sale of the far more elusive 1983-P quarter in MS67 (a pop 20/1 coin vs. pop 33/1 for 1982-P in that grade) was $288 at Heritage (“Charlie O’s” coin) and more recently at GC at $579 if paying with a check.
Wondercoin
Wondercoin:
Thank you. I notice that GC took in $1133, $461 and $451 for similarly graded coins between 2016 and 2019. It appears this particular coin is not a good example to use if one would like to demonstrate the potential for scarce modern clads to increase in value.
MasonG. And the 1983-P is even worse by a landslide! I have had the #1 Registry set of Clad MS quarters for the past dozen or more years and you will not hear me talking about the profits (or even the potential profits) of building (and keeping) a top set of high grade specimens. Now, if the plan was to buy and flip the coins to a new wealthy collector who entered the competition, that’s another story. Take this 1982-P we are discussing. I was the underbidder (losing by about $10) on the pop 1 MS68 coin at Heritage when it sold the first time. That’s what I figured the coin at - all in. But, when that top #2 or #3 set collector (who bought the coin) decided to sell off and walk away from the collection, the new well to do #2 set collector paid more than double the price to win the coin the second time around. So, of course, I could decide to sell off all my pop 1s, etc. right now and possibly do quite well with those coins. But, I didn’t build the set in the first place for the profit potential. I built it for the great appreciation of just how scarce many of the coins were (and still are) in finest known grade and always preferred adding “home-made” coins to my set wherever possible. That’s the great fun for me of building a top set like these clad quarters; not grabbing the checkbook to buy them all!
But, enough about Clad quarters!
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
This is where I think cladking goes off the rails. He's concerned about wholesalers not being able to supply coins for a mass market should demand increase. A mass market for scarce (in grade) coins is not going to happen- ever. I believe he does not recognize how the typical collector approaches the series, which involves balancing price and grade and arriving at a grade that's good enough. Most collectors are not going to insist on only including the best coins in their sets.
As do many, variety collectors in particular. Which is a strike against coins already in plastic, as this type collector prefers to not pay retail for their coins, finding them raw at lower prices instead.
Twitching still!
An amazing thread that has 30 new posts to read every time I visit the site. Must be compelling reading! 😯
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
How many people won't be able to afford $5 for a Gem '72-D quarter so will opt for a scarcer MS-60? chBU and Gem clad quarters and dimes are far too common to get up over a few dollars apiece, probably. Tough dates in vchBU and Gem will by definition go up to the point that supply and demand are in balance. I'm talking about the tough dates. This includes quite a few dates that people don't realize are mostly gone and were never common in the first place. Quarters like the '71 were terrible in the mint set, then they weren't saved, and now most of those still terrible coins are tarnished. Where do you find a nice MS-64 or even or even a nice attractive chBU? I'm simply saying these coins aren't out there in any sort of quantity. Over the years collectors had to find them one or two at a time but almost no one was looking for them. This date is one of the least likely to clean up as well.
I've said for years that all of these coins are far scarcer than people think and unpredictable events have led them to be far scarcer than even I imagined. I'd have never guessed the prices of mint sets would utterly collapse in 2008 during the Great Recession and never recover until the pandemic of 2020. I'd have never guessed that the demand would stay so low right up to the current time. I did not know that many dates of mint set packaging is highly unstable or I wouldn't have to be cleaning them. No matter how closely you watch something events and processes can escape your notice. Indeed, sometimes the closer you watch something the more the changes are observed in fits and starts. One very wise man who didn't survive the pandemic summed this up quite nicely; "Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps". Well... ...it looks like we're suddenly living in the future or at least we're moving there.
Clad dimes and quarters are gone and now the demand is catching up with what's left of them. In the meantime there is still a bidding war going on for the much more popular half dollars and dollars.
You. Don't. Get. It.
For the majority of collectors, if they can't find a "nice MS-64 or even or even a nice attractive chBU", they'll take the next grade down and call it good. Most people don't attempt to put together sets of coins that don't exist in numbers that make the task one that can be accomplished.
No, what I am telling you is that it all comes down to price. Collectors have always preferred "better" coins. It doesn't mean they are willing to pay the price you keep implying but won't even state.
There is a difference between change and what you are implying now or at least implied in the past. Again, it comes down to price and again, you won't provide your estimate.
Earlier, you asked my opinion on what I think the scarcer moderns should be worth if I agree a 72-D quarter will sell for $2 in three years.
I answered this in the last "Raw Moderns" thread and I'll give you the same answer now. I don't think more than a very low proportion of 1933 and later US coinage (classic or modern) up to MS-66 should sell for more than a nominal premium to the grading fee or if silver, the metal content. It's based upon my inference that at least 95% are a Judd R-1 with 1250+, whether the TPG counts show it now or not. Many or most with a (noticeable) multiple of 1250 and that most collectors will accept a slightly lower quality coin anyway.
Yes, there is some uncertainty on the actual supply but mostly, collectors either treat this purchase as a hobby expense, or if they don't for the more expensive but still common coins, because they expect to get most of their money back. I infer this anecdotally (from coin forums and elsewhere) as well as the prices being paid. It isn't because they really like what they collect that much most of the time, regardless of what they collect.
Most collectors start by pocket change and collecting current series. They soon find that clad coins dated prior to 1999 are dull and unexciting and the bullion in them not worth the metals that they are minted on. When they discover silver and gold coins, the excitement begins. Bullion coins will always have bullion value, Clad coins will only have face value. The amount of real coin collectors may decrease, but, the amount of bullion collectors will increase. A lot of people need the solidity of gold and silver. There are a lot of people that collect bullion coins, just for bullion values sake. Bullion coins are always liquid, you can sell them at any time for close to bullion value. At this time, most of my collection is collector value coins. I do like most NCLT silvers. Pandas , Maple leafs, American Eagles, etc., etc., but have not purchased many yet.
Another thing, look at all the choices for coin collectors these days. A lot more then even 20 years ago. With all the choices available, why choose dull clad coins?
I partly agree except for the bullion obsession. There are plenty of copper collectors out there. There are a lot of Kennedy collectors, and they don't stop at 1970.
Other than registry collectors which we can count, who else collects MS67 clad business strike quarters from 1965-1998? There are roughly 200-250 sets between PCGS and NGC. Many are dormant and/or clearly not focused on a finest known set. Do we we believe that there are many dates with fewer than 250 MS66-MS67 coins in existence including those yet to be graded?
The advent of slabs and improved storage also increases the rate of survivors from coinage of previous eras. A decent number of reasonably well preserved coins and lower demand are going to limit prices. In a 100-150 years from now when we’re all dead, who knows?
“With all the choices available, why choose dull clad coins?”
If I have to explain it to you, I am fairly certain you will never appreciate the explanation. That said, I’ll now wait for CK to address your comment in pages and pages of thoughtful analysis.
Wondercoin
@cladking is somehow applying a standard to moderns that doesn't exist for Classics. There are no mint sets pre-war. There aren't roll quantities of saved BU coins pre-1900. Yet that hasn't hurt collectors of those series.
There are no rare or even scarce clad coins if you include all grades. The lack of rolls of thousands of chBU examples isn't a problem, just like it hasn't been a problem for large cents.
If you want to argue that MS67 coins will sell for more because of condition scarcity, I won't argue. But once you start arguing for a paucity of lower grade clad coins you lose me. Even just Uncs given the millions of mint sets for some of those years and the thousands of blue book sets out there.
Based on some of the posts I've read, it'll definitely be analysis.
I've debated him numerous times elsewhere on this subject. He hasn't made the same claims in this thread but in the past, I had to decipher his premises to interpret what he was actually saying.
If you agree with his premises, then what he says makes sense. I don't because it contradicts practically everything evident in how collectors actually behave, as evidenced in the data we have: prices, TPG data, and anecdotally on coin forums and coin articles.
The beat up horse refused to stay down!
Immeasurable force meets immovable object. Which prevails?
Neither side will convince the other. Which is right and which is wrong? Beats me; for me there is a lot of unknowns regarding the future of the so called moderns.
I've cherrypicked nice varieties in plastic a number of times.
But how many times have you paid the premium for the variety IDENTIFIED in plastic (not 55 DDO or 72 DDO or 3-legged varieties). Cherrypicking an unidentified variety in plastic isn't what @masong is talking about.
The 71-P quarter has 120 in MS-66 and 8 in MS-67 at PCGS. NGC grade distribution indicates that only a low proportion would successfully cross which if correct, will add a few more. 69-P has 169 and 11, again with somewhat more adding NGC. Some of other dates have fewer than the 69-P but I have never heard anyone comment on the scarcity.
Given the current prices, I conclude that not even one has 200-250 since I don't believe the population data includes many duplicates. My assumption is that these two dates might possibly be a Judd R-2 at best (501-1250) and probably on the lower side. Every other date I presume to be an R-1 with more than 1250.
Ok-several times.
I've been saying for half a century that there are innumerable scarce moderns in US and world coins. When each country switched to base metal after WWII collectors simply quit saving new coins. Starting about 20 years ago one series after another of world coins began exploding higher in price by 20 to 1000 fold. That's 20 to 1000 TIMES the old price. Despite this success people still insist I'm wrong and either increases aren't "significant" or are impossible because the mintages are so high.
These explosive gains came to high grade moderns back at the end of the last millennium and now it's coming to all scarce US moderns, it would seem.
Again an MS-65 '72-D quarter isn't going to the moon but it will far higher than its current wholesale price of 40c. This is because this coin isn't very scarce but anyone who thinks he can go out and but a roll of these is way off base. You must but 7 or 8 chBU rolls and make your own. Good luck finding even one roll or 40 mint sets. And this is one of the "easiest" old clads.
The horse isn't defying death unless bemusement can be fatal.
A lot of the world coin price rises follow the development of the middle class. This dynamic is not present in the US.
I'm also not sure what your CHBU roll obsession is. Pre-1933 coins have neither mint sets nor ch BU rolls available. Even the ones that do have the same picked over problem. But a roll of UNC Mercs and you are likely to get a lot of low end UNCS and even slider AUs because they've been picked over for better coins. So what?
In my opinion a lot of low grade clad is very very ugly. They are struck with tired, worn, and maladjusted dies and are beaten up at the mint. I call some of them "MS-30" because they were made with all the detail of a worn out coin. Most of these coins can not be wholesaled as "chBU". "chBU" essentially represents only lustrous coins in about MS-61 or higher but lots of full luster MS-60's exist in these rolls.
Apparently at least part of the market agrees with me that low grade clad is often ugly. These are not like a roll of mercury dimes where every single coin in most rolls are attractive. This does NOT apply to most moderns and especially not to early clads. Even before the coins tarnished a lot of mint set coins could not be wholesaled as "chBU" and mint set coins tend to be far far nicer than coins made for circulation.
Now almost every single coin made for circulation has been destroyed or degraded to VG condition and all that's left are a few of the mostly tarnished mint sets.
You can't get a coin like a '69 quarter made for circulation. Well at least you couldn't get one if there were demand because there are exceedingly few of them. I'd wager there aren't 4 bags in existence all together. That's fewer than 16,000 coins and almost every one of them looks like junk.
Why would the high price of an MS-65 '72-D quarter (40 cents) drive someone to look for a VF in circulation. Finding a nice VF requires a lot more effort than sending a few dollars to one of the few retailers who sell these. You'll only need to check a few mint sets to find a Gem and it probably won't even be tarnished. It's so common it might be in the first set you check.
Until the price forces people to lower their sights the price will have to get solidly higher than 40c.
The bottom line is that the only truly relevant premise is that the mint sets are mostly gone. Everything else is, I believe, just a matter of perspective. People are alike all over and is each a product of his place and time and there is nothing new under the sun including the simple fact that everything is continually changing and evolving. Nobody can predict the future but it's easy enough to look at trends and plot out how things might change if the trends continue. There are only two relevant trends in my opinion; the number of modern collectors is exploding and the only supply for the coins is essentially already depleted. Combined with the current macroeconomic trends it looks like a monster wave in the perfect storm.
But no matter how the future unfolds it will unfold without billions of the coins that our generation has allowed to be lost and degraded. The coins are gone whether the demand really continues to materialize or not.
Ch BU as understood by most is roughly equivalent to MS63-M@64.
That's what dip is for.
The new collectors are not as fixated on "bullion".
Coin collectors as a group probably treasure silver and gold more than most people and I'm a big silver bull. Bullion and coin collecting are closely related but hardly the same thing. One can collect indian cents or buffalo nickels without standing out from the crowd (of coin collectors
)
I think Q David Bowers might take issue with some of the comments/views in this thread.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
"I've been saying for half a century that there are innumerable scarce moderns in US and world coins."
And yet, here we are.
Exhibit A in the "Why you shouldn't count on making money with your coin collection" file.
The bottom line is that neither the public nor collectors have the motivation you claim they do, they never did in the past, and you have never provided a single reason why they will in the future either.
People are alike all over and is each a product of his place and time and there is nothing new under the sun including the simple fact that everything is continually changing and evolving. Nobody can predict the future but it's easy enough to look at trends and plot out how things might change if the trends continue. There are only two relevant trends in my opinion; the number of modern collectors is exploding and the only supply for the coins is essentially already depleted. Combined with the current macroeconomic trends it looks like a monster wave in the perfect storm.
>
There is believable change and then there is your claim. Once again, you write in the abstract and now with hyperbole. I have now asked you three times, what prices do you have in mind?
If it's anything similar to your claim in the last "Raw Moderns" thread, it's not a matter of it being a "toss up" whether it will or won't happen. That's exactly what you are implying - again - where supposedly some extremely common US modern with 20,000 survivors in some arbitrary quality is going to sell for hundreds and scarcer ones for far more.
You continue to infer:
1) that the public finds coin collecting a lot more interesting than the evidence actually demonstrates.
2) that the public and collectors are predisposed to prefer their circulating coinage when they do not.
3) that the primary attributes I previously listed (design perception, coin size, metal content, and relative scarcity) either do not matter or are random preferences when there is no basis for such a belief whatsoever.
It will take a radical change in all three - at minimum - for you to be anywhere near correct.
I have debated him on the potential of world "moderns" many times also. More exaggeration where his posts indicate he doesn't know the actual prices and exaggerates the scarcity. None of this has anything to do with the future prospects for this coinage anyway.
The title of this thread is "The Days of Raw Moderns are Over." For me its just begun. I have started to search rolls again a few months ago, mostly half dollars, after a long hiatus. I just found my first my first two ddo's, a 1971 and 1974, just yesterday. I did find some silver coins even a Franklyn half. Try finding Dansco album #7166 for regular retail price. The price gougers on ebay are selling these for up to $80 and they are selling, the suggested retail price by the Dansco co. is $42.95. Every time there is a limited supply of New Dansco Albums, they instantly sell out. Believe it or not, a lot of BU coins are available for almost all dates in circulation, including all the way back to 1971. I began a Kennedy set a month ago, and have found all but the 1970-D for the Dansco album #7166 (No proofs) with most BU and a few AU coins, all the way back to 1964. All I need is the album, but I will wait until a reasonable price for the album comes along.
More confusion of the debate. Why would a collector care if the coin comes from a mint set or from circulation? Where is the evidence that anyone does, other maybe you? Even here, this is the first time I recall you using this in your claims
I’m still looking for an 83 P and D quarter that matches the rest of the coins in this set. The hunt is fun!
Love it or hate it, clad quarters are the hottest topic on these chat boards at the moment.
Not following your logic. If they're selling at $80, that's the current retail price.
What the manufacturer suggests is not relevant unless they are selling albums at that price.
Kind of like the old joke...
Customer: "How much is that coin album?"
Merchant: "$80."
Customer: "That's a ripoff! The manufacturer's price is $42.95!"
Merchant: "Why don't you buy one from them?"
Customer: "Well, they're out of stock."
Merchant: "When I'm out of stock, my price is $42.95, too."
When the Company states a retail price of $42.95 that is the retail price. Anything over that is price gouging. They do appear once in awhile at $42.95 or less you just have to look at the right time. No worries, i will find one at a lower price. Some supply companies list them at 21.95 but they are all out of stock. I can wait, Dansco hopefully will get back on their feet and resupply companies like Wizard and Amos.