@UFFDAH said:
As my Dad would say. "Buy quality desirable land, the Good Lord isn't making anymore of it". The same holds true with unopened. By quality, desirable unopened and it will go up in value. Its a simple philosophy.
Just met with my accountant and told him I liked the letter his company sent, one thing they mentioned was this:
TAX RATE CAPITAL GAIN
Lower tax rates for dividend and capital gain income have been made permanent. For some taxpayers
the capital gain rate could be zero.
So I told him its nice that I'll have a low or zero capital gain rate because I made a lot of profit selling
Mahomes rookies in 2020. He said my rate is 28% because they're a collectible.
I said then why did your letter say that for some taxpayers the capital gain rate could be zero. He said that's land.
My two cents: vintage unopened product will never decrease in value; with ever rip the supply continually decreases. Demand jumped from niche to mainstream many years ago and has never turned back.
"Must these Englishmen Live That I Might Die? Must They Live That I Might Die?" - The Blue Oyster Cult
Newbie here. Just starting out so very late to the game at the age of 59 but you guys hit a cord with me.
I have started to accumulate basketball but mostly baseball 2021 Topps, Dunross and Panini unopened boxes, packs and hangers.
I started out helping a friend get some unopened packs and boxes for their kids birthday and quickly found out how hard it is to find them due to flippers being overly aggressive and buying up the basketball and football to resell quickly.
I started to think I would just save the unopened packages and put them away in my closet.
My question is do I have enough time left on this earth for the 2021 to become valuable in 5 years or are we talking decades? Are you guys saving the 2021 packs or are you just buying and saving the 1970's and 1980's packs?
@WQuarterFreddie said:
Newbie here. Just starting out so very late to the game at the age of 59 but you guys hit a cord with me.
I have started to accumulate basketball but mostly baseball 2021 Topps, Dunross and Panini unopened boxes, packs and hangers.
My question is do I have enough time left on this earth for the 2021 to become valuable in 5 years or are we talking decades? Are you guys saving the 2021 packs or are you just buying and saving the 1970's and 1980's packs?
Welcome! The value in 5 years will almost entirely depend upon how good the rookie class of 2021 is, so it’s a very hard question to predict now. If I were in your shoes I would pick 2 rookie classes that show decent deep promise and are relatively newer to hold for five years like 2015 and 2017 in basketball. I’d also go high on the product spectrum like Prizm or Immaculate in basketball (and if someone is actually selling you “Dunross” boxes look out you are getting taken advantage of being new).
@WQuarterFreddie said:
Newbie here. Just starting out so very late to the game at the age of 59 but you guys hit a cord with me.
I have started to accumulate basketball but mostly baseball 2021 Topps, Dunross and Panini unopened boxes, packs and hangers.
My question is do I have enough time left on this earth for the 2021 to become valuable in 5 years or are we talking decades? Are you guys saving the 2021 packs or are you just buying and saving the 1970's and 1980's packs?
Welcome! The value in 5 years will almost entirely depend upon how good the rookie class of 2021 is, so it’s a very hard question to predict now. If I were in your shoes I would pick 2 rookie classes that show decent deep promise and are relatively newer to hold for five years like 2015 and 2017 in basketball. I’d also go high on the product spectrum like Prizm or Immaculate in basketball (and if someone is actually selling you “Dunross” boxes look out you are getting taken advantage of being new).
Good luck!
🤣😂. Sorry for the typo! Thank you for the feedback and the suggestions!
For the record I am buying my boxes and packs from Target. Is it true that Hobby boxes are better than Retail boxes or has that changed over the years?
See also: 1981 topps baseball.
The only vending fasc I can find is $800/box. Wax and cello boxes are up HUGE too.
I bought a sealed vending case last November; I’ve yet to see any other cases come up since. 🤷♂️
@Rofles said:
See also: 1981 topps baseball.
The only vending fasc I can find is $800/box. Wax and cello boxes are up HUGE too.
I bought a sealed vending case last November; I’ve yet to see any other cases come up since. 🤷♂️
81 vending boxes FASC sell for about $400. A few have sold on ebay over past month.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
@WQuarterFreddie said:
Newbie here. Just starting out so very late to the game at the age of 59 but you guys hit a cord with me.
I have started to accumulate basketball but mostly baseball 2021 Topps, Dunross and Panini unopened boxes, packs and hangers.
My question is do I have enough time left on this earth for the 2021 to become valuable in 5 years or are we talking decades? Are you guys saving the 2021 packs or are you just buying and saving the 1970's and 1980's packs?
Welcome! The value in 5 years will almost entirely depend upon how good the rookie class of 2021 is, so it’s a very hard question to predict now. If I were in your shoes I would pick 2 rookie classes that show decent deep promise and are relatively newer to hold for five years like 2015 and 2017 in basketball. I’d also go high on the product spectrum like Prizm or Immaculate in basketball (and if someone is actually selling you “Dunross” boxes look out you are getting taken advantage of being new).
Good luck!
🤣😂. Sorry for the typo! Thank you for the feedback and the suggestions!
For the record I am buying my boxes and packs from Target. Is it true that Hobby boxes are better than Retail boxes or has that changed over the years?
Yes hobby boxes are better or at least more valuable than retail boxes. Since 1996 Topps chrome basketball was released that has always been the case which is the first hobby vs. retail issue I’m aware of.
1981 Topps baseball unopened wax boxes were $260 in July of 2017 when this thread started and hit $1,500 in the last month. And that almost 600% performance is for the worst rookie class of the 1980’s.
@WQuarterFreddie said:
Newbie here. Just starting out so very late to the game at the age of 59 but you guys hit a cord with me.
I have started to accumulate basketball but mostly baseball 2021 Topps, Dunross and Panini unopened boxes, packs and hangers.
My question is do I have enough time left on this earth for the 2021 to become valuable in 5 years or are we talking decades? Are you guys saving the 2021 packs or are you just buying and saving the 1970's and 1980's packs?
Welcome! The value in 5 years will almost entirely depend upon how good the rookie class of 2021 is, so it’s a very hard question to predict now. If I were in your shoes I would pick 2 rookie classes that show decent deep promise and are relatively newer to hold for five years like 2015 and 2017 in basketball. I’d also go high on the product spectrum like Prizm or Immaculate in basketball (and if someone is actually selling you “Dunross” boxes look out you are getting taken advantage of being new).
Good luck!
🤣😂. Sorry for the typo! Thank you for the feedback and the suggestions!
For the record I am buying my boxes and packs from Target. Is it true that Hobby boxes are better than Retail boxes or has that changed over the years?
Yes hobby boxes are better or at least more valuable than retail boxes. Since 1996 Topps chrome basketball was released that has always been the case which is the first hobby vs. retail issue I’m aware of.
1981 Topps baseball unopened wax boxes were $260 in July of 2017 when this thread started and hit $1,500 in the last month. And that almost 600% performance is for the worst rookie class of the 1980’s.
i think this used to be true. however, id say that since 2018 just as many big hits overall have started to be found back in retail. even certain products, ie 2018 topps chrome update, were retail only. and that was one of the best baseball releases in a long, long time.
the vast lines at target would echo these sentiments. rtimmer isnt wrong about hobby being king however, i think the manufacturers started to wise up and the tide has definitely shifted back towards retail. especially w the prices that tend to be associated w hobby boxes.
however, i would not be going big on 2021 prizm basketball or 2021 topps update at all. imo, thats a flip immediately situation. if youre wanting to put away wax and for similar prices, youre prolly best off doing a lil homework and go w some ‘87 product. then once comfy, going further back from there.
looking at the recent auction of the rea auctions it looks like the unopened markett is really going up. the prices of some of the unopened boxes and factory sets it just really unreal how much money people are paying. even eighties boxes are going for premium prices.
No one could have predicted what would happen before 2020 changed everything. The massive upswing in pricing post-COVID was never a part of the original argument. But, one thing is abundantly clear: Unopened is, and always has been a blue chip investment. Ownership of great quality product is a guarantee of future increased value of holdings. Some of y'all must stare at your hordes of stuff and just smile ear to ear. I know I do. Reflecting on the days when vintage product was readily available or the forum was doing group box and case breaks seem a long way gone. It was really cool when it happened.
@UFFDAH said:
It will continue to go up per Grote and me opening it up. 🤣
I am a reformed ripper aside from special occasions/circumstances
The correct answer, always, to the OP's question with regard to vintage unopened product, is up.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I was planning to rip my PSA 59 football cello, with what happening with junk era stuff, I dont think so anymore. I was thinking the same with my BBCE 91 Topps Desert Shield packs, its not looking like it either.
I can agree that its valuable and increasing in value but I dont get it. If you open unopened its instantly less valuable and its known, on average, that what is inside an old unopened pack is nowhere near the value of the unopened pack. With PSA's changing of grading standards to make quality raw vintage less valuable post-grading than it was in the past, the stuff inside unopened is depreciating, not appreciating, while the value of unopened is appreciating.
It sure is a lot of fun to open. Maybe that is all that matters.
@UlyssesExtravaganza said:
I can agree that its valuable and increasing in value but I dont get it. If you open unopened its instantly less valuable and its known, on average, that what is inside an old unopened pack is nowhere near the value of the unopened pack. With PSA's changing of grading standards to make quality raw vintage less valuable post-grading than it was in the past, the stuff inside unopened is depreciating, not appreciating, while the value of unopened is appreciating.
It sure is a lot of fun to open. Maybe that is all that matters.
Unopened is, in and of itself, a collectible. Sure the contents are likely worth less than the pack but owning a factory sealed pack manufactured decades ago is super cool. Who can look at this pack and not say how cool it is in its unopened state?
@UlyssesExtravaganza said:
I can agree that its valuable and increasing in value but I dont get it. If you open unopened its instantly less valuable and its known, on average, that what is inside an old unopened pack is nowhere near the value of the unopened pack. With PSA's changing of grading standards to make quality raw vintage less valuable post-grading than it was in the past, the stuff inside unopened is depreciating, not appreciating, while the value of unopened is appreciating.
Logically you are correct the sum in most unopened will be worth more than the parts.
I will add the cards inside are depreciating due to 4/5 being the new 8 and 5/6/7 being the new 9 for all but the largest entities. Oddly by the book 1,2,3,4,5 vintage still seem to score the same grades now as then
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@UlyssesExtravaganza said:
I can agree that its valuable and increasing in value but I dont get it. If you open unopened its instantly less valuable and its known, on average, that what is inside an old unopened pack is nowhere near the value of the unopened pack. With PSA's changing of grading standards to make quality raw vintage less valuable post-grading than it was in the past, the stuff inside unopened is depreciating, not appreciating, while the value of unopened is appreciating.
It sure is a lot of fun to open. Maybe that is all that matters.
For real. Used yo be generally a 50/50 you could rip, grade and do alright. With tighter grading standards (and especially on vintage) it’s almost impossible to come out ahead.
That’s a super bummer because I’d much rather rip than keep unopened. So much more fun.
@UlyssesExtravaganza said:
I can agree that its valuable and increasing in value but I dont get it. If you open unopened its instantly less valuable and its known, on average, that what is inside an old unopened pack is nowhere near the value of the unopened pack. With PSA's changing of grading standards to make quality raw vintage less valuable post-grading than it was in the past, the stuff inside unopened is depreciating, not appreciating, while the value of unopened is appreciating.
It sure is a lot of fun to open. Maybe that is all that matters.
I used to feel the same way, but my thoughts have changed after reading \learning about unopened on this message board. Unopened is really not about the contents, it is about the whole package and the extreme rarity of it being intact.
It is kind of like the schrodingers cat. The pack can both contain and not contain that 1975 Brett rookie as long as it is unopened
I think early to mid 80s baseball is going to continue to climb in value, just as 70s unopened did not that long ago.
I recently looked back at a group rip here on these boards and I was buying early 80s Topps, fleer, and Donruss wax and cello packs for $1-4 each. Now they are going for $10-35 each depending on the issue and year.
What I Collect:
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
Recent auction results indicate that it's going up again, after a brief retreat post-COVID for some of the early 80's stuff. The 70's and earlier is going into the stratosphere. Early-mid 80s stuff is starting to climb, with a standout being 83. The 1983 cardboard header rack box in the BBCE auction went for over $3,000 a week or so ago. That's got to be a new record for that box. People are still ripping everything from the 80s, so its supply continues to lessen as demand appears to increase. That's a good formula for seeing price increases. Even humble 1986 Topps, which has always been my favorite, has been having a moment recently. Boxes that you could get for less than $100 6-12 months ago are now $150-200.
kevin
@tulsaboy said:
Recent auction results indicate that it's going up again, after a brief retreat post-COVID for some of the early 80's stuff. The 70's and earlier is going into the stratosphere. Early-mid 80s stuff is starting to climb, with a standout being 83. The 1983 cardboard header rack box in the BBCE auction went for over $3,000 a week or so ago. That's got to be a new record for that box. People are still ripping everything from the 80s, so its supply continues to lessen as demand appears to increase. That's a good formula for seeing price increases. Even humble 1986 Topps, which has always been my favorite, has been having a moment recently. Boxes that you could get for less than $100 6-12 months ago are now $150-200.
kevin
Wow. I didn't see that for the 83 box. That's crazy pricing for that, right? There has to be tons of those out there to buy. The 83 set may be the most iconic of the decade though so I get why it's so desirable.
I keep waiting on the 82 Topps and Traded Ripkens to have the sort of lift off in prices. Compared to some other early 80s rookies it seems his are undervalued right now.
@tulsaboy said:
Recent auction results indicate that it's going up again, after a brief retreat post-COVID for some of the early 80's stuff. The 70's and earlier is going into the stratosphere. Early-mid 80s stuff is starting to climb, with a standout being 83. The 1983 cardboard header rack box in the BBCE auction went for over $3,000 a week or so ago. That's got to be a new record for that box. People are still ripping everything from the 80s, so its supply continues to lessen as demand appears to increase. That's a good formula for seeing price increases. Even humble 1986 Topps, which has always been my favorite, has been having a moment recently. Boxes that you could get for less than $100 6-12 months ago are now $150-200.
kevin
Wow. I didn't see that for the 83 box. That's crazy pricing for that, right? There has to be tons of those out there to buy. The 83 set may be the most iconic of the decade though so I get why it's so desirable.
I keep waiting on the 82 Topps and Traded Ripkens to have the sort of lift off in prices. Compared to some other early 80s rookies it seems his are undervalued right now.
@tulsaboy said:
Recent auction results indicate that it's going up again, after a brief retreat post-COVID for some of the early 80's stuff. The 70's and earlier is going into the stratosphere. Early-mid 80s stuff is starting to climb, with a standout being 83. The 1983 cardboard header rack box in the BBCE auction went for over $3,000 a week or so ago. That's got to be a new record for that box. People are still ripping everything from the 80s, so its supply continues to lessen as demand appears to increase. That's a good formula for seeing price increases. Even humble 1986 Topps, which has always been my favorite, has been having a moment recently. Boxes that you could get for less than $100 6-12 months ago are now $150-200.
kevin
Wow. I didn't see that for the 83 box. That's crazy pricing for that, right? There has to be tons of those out there to buy. The 83 set may be the most iconic of the decade though so I get why it's so desirable.
I keep waiting on the 82 Topps and Traded Ripkens to have the sort of lift off in prices. Compared to some other early 80s rookies it seems his are undervalued right now.
That was nuts. The funny part is that I won a 1983 Michigan box BBCE FASC in that same auction for "only" 1K. There appears to be an influx of big money into the unopened arena again. A PSA 8 73 cello with Clemente on top sold for nearly 10K last night at HA.
To me, unopened has always been about owning the cards in their original, packaged form. The occasional rip is fun but nothing beats unopened, at least for me.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
$3808 for a 1983 Topps unopened rack box is insanity. Those racks aren't worth $150 plus each. Not a chance. There are thousands upon thousands of them. They are not rare. Anything but. I love unopened, love early 80s product, but that price is just silly. Clearly some folks who don't know better got into a bidding war and it got out of hand. That's not anywhere close to the recent market price for that issue, even for cardboard header racks.
kevin
No doubt. I was shocked a few weeks ago on here when a bunch of 83 grocery racks sold for almost $50/pack. I thought that was a huge jump but $150/pack is super crazy.
HA ended on Sunday and there were vending boxes from the early 70's that were 3X from last year. Apparently, there is a big buyer out there wanting older unopened.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
I enjoy thinking about this subject as both a collector of unopened and an investor. Some might argue that quality vintage graded cards and unopened keep pace with inflation, rare art and the S&P 500. But one also has to take into account the tax advantages of 401Ks and IRA's.
So there is one discussion to be had of rare and vintage cards/unopened vs other asset classes. I also think that the discussion can be had within other contexts. How big is the addressable market for the following boxes: 1975 Topps wax pack, 1980 Topps Baseball wax box, 1989 Upper Deck box, 1986 Fleer Basketball pack, 1990 Fleer Basketball Wax Box, 1st edition Pokemon box, 1993 Finest Baseball Box, 2011 Topps Update Baseball box, 2018 Bowman Chrome baseball box.
Each box listed above has different size markets. The market for a 1989 UD Baseball Box is very large. The market for an '86 Fleer Basketball Wax Pack or a 1975 Topps Baseball wax pack is arguably smaller but with much deeper pockets. Who is selling and why? Who is buying? How old are they? How many packs or boxes do they already own? Is the amount of buyers for a 1975 Topps wax pack growing or shrinking? Are the buyer demographics growing for 2011 Topps Update (Trout) boxes? For 2018 Bowman Chrome (Ohtani)?
Some items I collect are surprisingly niche. For example I bought a 1996 Select Certified Baseball box for $1200 a few years ago. This year I bought the only one offered on eBay at auction for $732. The only other ones available are 5 in BBCE's warehouse for $1500 ea. So I have two boxes stowed away, it seems there is a bid up to $700 on eBay but not many buyers want to buy BBCE's at $1495. How many other collectors have boxes of '96 Select Certified Baseball packed away? If BBCE sells out and they start selling for $2K on eBay, how many boxes come to market to fill that need? Is the population of Select Certified Box collectors increasing?
My main worry is that the demographics of whatever I collect are shrinking. IMO you either need to increase the pool of buyers by younger collectors becoming interested in older products, or you need current (or former) collectors to unlock new levels of wealth so that price of the collectibles can appreciate.
Let me qualify the following by first saying I am bullish unopened long term and have lots of it in my collection. I don't think it's going down and even the worst, most overproduced products should probably keep pace with inflation. But it does make me shake my head somewhat when I hear for the millionth time that "unopened boxes pop count is always decreasing with every rip so price can only go up." I think that argument is based on faulty logic and it could lead to poor returns on invested capital if the wrong unopened product is purchased. I think it's likely that the majority of unopened collectors do not open boxes valued over $250 on a regular basis. I also think price increases bring more product to market and collectors have more stuff stashed away than some might think. I may be out of the loop with current trends but I don't see as much Youtube activity with vintage breakers anymore either. Most of the stuff getting cracked open on Youtube is modern, in my experience (please correct me if I'm wrong!), so that might be an area to explore for investment. Personally I don't collect modern because I find it confusing.
Thoughts/Criticisms welcome!
I just cant imagine vintage unopened going down in price at this point. they are not making any more of it, and when people open it, the total population only decreases.
the guys buying 10-20 years ago were really trailblazers.
@craig44 said:
I just cant imagine vintage unopened going down in price at this point. they are not making any more of it, and when people open it, the total population only decreases.
the guys buying 10-20 years ago were really trailblazers.
Read my post just above yours from this morning and ask yourself: is the number of vintage unopened collectors going up or down? That’s important for price appreciation to outpace other asset classes and inflation.
Also, while total world population of unopened packs of say, 1972 Topps will always be decreasing, that doesn’t mean total packs for sale at any one given time will go down. Price is set on the margin.
That said, I am still bullish overall and on broad strokes, do agree with you. The unopened market always surprises me. One Canadian guy on the vintage wax and packs Facebook group brought some 60-80 boxes of 1987 OPC Baseball up for sale around $550 apiece. I wasn’t sure how liquid the ‘87 OPC market was, but they were gone in two days.
I’m also consistently surprised how at any one time there are 50-70 1993 SP Baseball boxes for sale on EBay priced anywhere from $2100 to $4500 (Buy it Now). But the auctions always get bid up to $2K and the market never skips a beat.
Will the price of unopened rise so high that it prices itself out of the majority of buyers price range? Thereby just trading within that high priced group of collectors? Which, how many are within that realm? Only their activity within can spike the price upward, not the average Joes involvement, who are priced out of that market.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
I was once in art related hobby where the prices on vintage items increased so much that most exited. It has become a hobby that now everything is protection priced and most of the action is a few individuals trading amongst themselves.
As West22 said there no tax benefits of unopened/ In the long term if you are beating the S&P 500 by 20% (accounting for inflation and all auction house cuts are factored in) then I'd agree with calling it a solid investment but only if that is the case.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@1982FBWaxMemories said:
I was once in art related hobby where the prices on vintage items increased so much that most exited. It has become a hobby that now everything is protection priced and most of the action is a few individuals trading amongst themselves.
As West22 said there no tax benefits of unopened/ In the long term if you are beating the S&P 500 by 20% (accounting for inflation and all auction house cuts are factored in) then I'd agree with calling it a solid investment but only if that is the case.
Agree there. When I was younger I had more money in cards than in stocks. It sounds crazy but I was saving everything I could and had a lot tied up in real estate and starting a business, so I dabbled in cards for fun with the little I had and didn't start investing in the stock market until I had paid down my mortgages and business debt. Now the vast majority of spare funds I have go into retirement accounts and experiences with my kids, and then lastly cards as a hobby. I have daughters who would rather play with American Girl dolls so the cards really do take a backseat these days.
Cards can't come close to comparing to real estate or stocks when it comes to tax advantages, unless you do it as a business and that's a whole other ballgame that I'd rather not delve into. So as FBWaxMemories said, there's at least a 20% hurdle for cards to outperform. If I sell a $200 box on eBay there is so much slippage it's insane, especially since USPS raised rates again this year. I know some high volume sellers get preferential fees on eBay but as a lower volume Top Rated Seller I pay 12% on the hammer price plus 12% of the sales tax for whatever state the buyer is from. So that 12% is often 14% (or more if you're not a Top Rated Seller). So conservatively knock $28 off the hammer price and another $12-$15 for shipping, and that's around 21% off your net. And that's all before you get a 1099 at the end of the year from eBay.
My uneducated opinion is that 80% of the price appreciation in vintage cards and boxes is due to the growth in wealth level of the boomers, who are the largest demographic among card collectors. The other 20% was due to a variety of factors, among them: a pandemic hobby boom, smaller collecting demographics such as Gen-X and millennials getting to higher income levels, and finally, the investing public broadly seeking out alternative investments such as fine art, collectibles and crypto. I observe high correlations between these markets as they all compete for excess capital that is separate from retirement and brokerage stock accounts.
As long as these broader wealth effects trends continue then I believe cards will continue to appreciate despite some collectors leaving or dying off. If you want to play demographic trends rather than investing in the tried and true blue chips such as Mantles, vintage graded, vintage unopened, MJ, Gretzky, then clearly Pokemon and modern seem to be fast growing options among youths, as well as MTG. I've observed strong price appreciation and growing levels of participation in these areas but you would need a wide breadth of knowledge regarding these markets as (my opinion) they are the most volatile. As a millennial and non-participant I may not be the greatest expert on this one so someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
Comments
Just met with my accountant and told him I liked the letter his company sent, one thing they mentioned was this:
TAX RATE CAPITAL GAIN
Lower tax rates for dividend and capital gain income have been made permanent. For some taxpayers
the capital gain rate could be zero.
So I told him its nice that I'll have a low or zero capital gain rate because I made a lot of profit selling
Mahomes rookies in 2020. He said my rate is 28% because they're a collectible.
I said then why did your letter say that for some taxpayers the capital gain rate could be zero. He said that's land.
@Darin - yeah that's the other thing philosophy wise. You live, you die and pay taxes. Its not easy thats for sure.
gonna settle this debate for the crisser for once and for all...
i guarantee that the unopened market in the next 100 years will go:
way up
down a tad
back up
stall
down a bit
up just a little
way back up
worthless.
wars fought for it simply for its amazing kindling properties.
i will check back in feb 5th, 2121 to say i told you so, if we have power.
My two cents: vintage unopened product will never decrease in value; with ever rip the supply continually decreases. Demand jumped from niche to mainstream many years ago and has never turned back.
How many times has unopened gone up 20% since the first post? I don’t think criss could press a barbell that many times.
Wow.
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=80768
Even bigger WOW.
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=80740
So I guess as close to FASC making a full box 80,000.00
Glad I picked one up for 1000.00 when I did
Newbie here. Just starting out so very late to the game at the age of 59 but you guys hit a cord with me.
I have started to accumulate basketball but mostly baseball 2021 Topps, Dunross and Panini unopened boxes, packs and hangers.
I started out helping a friend get some unopened packs and boxes for their kids birthday and quickly found out how hard it is to find them due to flippers being overly aggressive and buying up the basketball and football to resell quickly.
I started to think I would just save the unopened packages and put them away in my closet.
My question is do I have enough time left on this earth for the 2021 to become valuable in 5 years or are we talking decades? Are you guys saving the 2021 packs or are you just buying and saving the 1970's and 1980's packs?
Welcome! The value in 5 years will almost entirely depend upon how good the rookie class of 2021 is, so it’s a very hard question to predict now. If I were in your shoes I would pick 2 rookie classes that show decent deep promise and are relatively newer to hold for five years like 2015 and 2017 in basketball. I’d also go high on the product spectrum like Prizm or Immaculate in basketball (and if someone is actually selling you “Dunross” boxes look out you are getting taken advantage of being new).
Good luck!
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
🤣😂. Sorry for the typo! Thank you for the feedback and the suggestions!
For the record I am buying my boxes and packs from Target. Is it true that Hobby boxes are better than Retail boxes or has that changed over the years?
See also: 1981 topps baseball.
The only vending fasc I can find is $800/box. Wax and cello boxes are up HUGE too.
I bought a sealed vending case last November; I’ve yet to see any other cases come up since. 🤷♂️
81 vending boxes FASC sell for about $400. A few have sold on ebay over past month.
https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=1981+topps+baseball+vending+box+bbce&_in_kw=1&_ex_kw=&_sacat=0&LH_Sold=1&_udlo=&_udhi=&_samilow=&_samihi=&_sadis=15&_stpos=11713&_sargn=-1&saslc=1&_salic=1&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=200&LH_Complete=1&_fosrp=1
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Yes hobby boxes are better or at least more valuable than retail boxes. Since 1996 Topps chrome basketball was released that has always been the case which is the first hobby vs. retail issue I’m aware of.
1981 Topps baseball unopened wax boxes were $260 in July of 2017 when this thread started and hit $1,500 in the last month. And that almost 600% performance is for the worst rookie class of the 1980’s.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
i think this used to be true. however, id say that since 2018 just as many big hits overall have started to be found back in retail. even certain products, ie 2018 topps chrome update, were retail only. and that was one of the best baseball releases in a long, long time.
the vast lines at target would echo these sentiments. rtimmer isnt wrong about hobby being king however, i think the manufacturers started to wise up and the tide has definitely shifted back towards retail. especially w the prices that tend to be associated w hobby boxes.
however, i would not be going big on 2021 prizm basketball or 2021 topps update at all. imo, thats a flip immediately situation. if youre wanting to put away wax and for similar prices, youre prolly best off doing a lil homework and go w some ‘87 product. then once comfy, going further back from there.
@grote15, guess I need to expand my search parameters! LOL.
Glad this post aged well👍
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
looking at the recent auction of the rea auctions it looks like the unopened markett is really going up. the prices of some of the unopened boxes and factory sets it just really unreal how much money people are paying. even eighties boxes are going for premium prices.
It will continue to go up per Grote and me opening it up. 🤣
No one could have predicted what would happen before 2020 changed everything. The massive upswing in pricing post-COVID was never a part of the original argument. But, one thing is abundantly clear: Unopened is, and always has been a blue chip investment. Ownership of great quality product is a guarantee of future increased value of holdings. Some of y'all must stare at your hordes of stuff and just smile ear to ear. I know I do. Reflecting on the days when vintage product was readily available or the forum was doing group box and case breaks seem a long way gone. It was really cool when it happened.
Farewell Ryno.
I am a reformed ripper aside from special occasions/circumstances
The correct answer, always, to the OP's question with regard to vintage unopened product, is up.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
LMAO.
I am curious, what is your special occasions and circumstances? And what is your ultimate best rip? You have to have some good rips??
I was planning to rip my PSA 59 football cello, with what happening with junk era stuff, I dont think so anymore. I was thinking the same with my BBCE 91 Topps Desert Shield packs, its not looking like it either.
I can agree that its valuable and increasing in value but I dont get it. If you open unopened its instantly less valuable and its known, on average, that what is inside an old unopened pack is nowhere near the value of the unopened pack. With PSA's changing of grading standards to make quality raw vintage less valuable post-grading than it was in the past, the stuff inside unopened is depreciating, not appreciating, while the value of unopened is appreciating.
It sure is a lot of fun to open. Maybe that is all that matters.
Unopened is, in and of itself, a collectible. Sure the contents are likely worth less than the pack but owning a factory sealed pack manufactured decades ago is super cool. Who can look at this pack and not say how cool it is in its unopened state?
Logically you are correct the sum in most unopened will be worth more than the parts.
I will add the cards inside are depreciating due to 4/5 being the new 8 and 5/6/7 being the new 9 for all but the largest entities. Oddly by the book 1,2,3,4,5 vintage still seem to score the same grades now as then
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
For real. Used yo be generally a 50/50 you could rip, grade and do alright. With tighter grading standards (and especially on vintage) it’s almost impossible to come out ahead.
That’s a super bummer because I’d much rather rip than keep unopened. So much more fun.
Another downside to the tighter standards.
I used to feel the same way, but my thoughts have changed after reading \learning about unopened on this message board. Unopened is really not about the contents, it is about the whole package and the extreme rarity of it being intact.
It is kind of like the schrodingers cat. The pack can both contain and not contain that 1975 Brett rookie as long as it is unopened
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I think early to mid 80s baseball is going to continue to climb in value, just as 70s unopened did not that long ago.
I recently looked back at a group rip here on these boards and I was buying early 80s Topps, fleer, and Donruss wax and cello packs for $1-4 each. Now they are going for $10-35 each depending on the issue and year.
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
Recent auction results indicate that it's going up again, after a brief retreat post-COVID for some of the early 80's stuff. The 70's and earlier is going into the stratosphere. Early-mid 80s stuff is starting to climb, with a standout being 83. The 1983 cardboard header rack box in the BBCE auction went for over $3,000 a week or so ago. That's got to be a new record for that box. People are still ripping everything from the 80s, so its supply continues to lessen as demand appears to increase. That's a good formula for seeing price increases. Even humble 1986 Topps, which has always been my favorite, has been having a moment recently. Boxes that you could get for less than $100 6-12 months ago are now $150-200.
kevin
Wow. I didn't see that for the 83 box. That's crazy pricing for that, right? There has to be tons of those out there to buy. The 83 set may be the most iconic of the decade though so I get why it's so desirable.
I keep waiting on the 82 Topps and Traded Ripkens to have the sort of lift off in prices. Compared to some other early 80s rookies it seems his are undervalued right now.
I undersold it. $3808. Has to be a record.
https://bid.bbceauctions.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=2400
That was nuts. The funny part is that I won a 1983 Michigan box BBCE FASC in that same auction for "only" 1K. There appears to be an influx of big money into the unopened arena again. A PSA 8 73 cello with Clemente on top sold for nearly 10K last night at HA.
To me, unopened has always been about owning the cards in their original, packaged form. The occasional rip is fun but nothing beats unopened, at least for me.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
$3808 for a 1983 Topps unopened rack box is insanity. Those racks aren't worth $150 plus each. Not a chance. There are thousands upon thousands of them. They are not rare. Anything but. I love unopened, love early 80s product, but that price is just silly. Clearly some folks who don't know better got into a bidding war and it got out of hand. That's not anywhere close to the recent market price for that issue, even for cardboard header racks.
kevin
^^
No doubt. I was shocked a few weeks ago on here when a bunch of 83 grocery racks sold for almost $50/pack. I thought that was a huge jump but $150/pack is super crazy.
If Mr. Wonderful and his 'buying group' start hoarding unopened, watch out!
HA ended on Sunday and there were vending boxes from the early 70's that were 3X from last year. Apparently, there is a big buyer out there wanting older unopened.
I enjoy thinking about this subject as both a collector of unopened and an investor. Some might argue that quality vintage graded cards and unopened keep pace with inflation, rare art and the S&P 500. But one also has to take into account the tax advantages of 401Ks and IRA's.
So there is one discussion to be had of rare and vintage cards/unopened vs other asset classes. I also think that the discussion can be had within other contexts. How big is the addressable market for the following boxes: 1975 Topps wax pack, 1980 Topps Baseball wax box, 1989 Upper Deck box, 1986 Fleer Basketball pack, 1990 Fleer Basketball Wax Box, 1st edition Pokemon box, 1993 Finest Baseball Box, 2011 Topps Update Baseball box, 2018 Bowman Chrome baseball box.
Each box listed above has different size markets. The market for a 1989 UD Baseball Box is very large. The market for an '86 Fleer Basketball Wax Pack or a 1975 Topps Baseball wax pack is arguably smaller but with much deeper pockets. Who is selling and why? Who is buying? How old are they? How many packs or boxes do they already own? Is the amount of buyers for a 1975 Topps wax pack growing or shrinking? Are the buyer demographics growing for 2011 Topps Update (Trout) boxes? For 2018 Bowman Chrome (Ohtani)?
Some items I collect are surprisingly niche. For example I bought a 1996 Select Certified Baseball box for $1200 a few years ago. This year I bought the only one offered on eBay at auction for $732. The only other ones available are 5 in BBCE's warehouse for $1500 ea. So I have two boxes stowed away, it seems there is a bid up to $700 on eBay but not many buyers want to buy BBCE's at $1495. How many other collectors have boxes of '96 Select Certified Baseball packed away? If BBCE sells out and they start selling for $2K on eBay, how many boxes come to market to fill that need? Is the population of Select Certified Box collectors increasing?
My main worry is that the demographics of whatever I collect are shrinking. IMO you either need to increase the pool of buyers by younger collectors becoming interested in older products, or you need current (or former) collectors to unlock new levels of wealth so that price of the collectibles can appreciate.
Let me qualify the following by first saying I am bullish unopened long term and have lots of it in my collection. I don't think it's going down and even the worst, most overproduced products should probably keep pace with inflation. But it does make me shake my head somewhat when I hear for the millionth time that "unopened boxes pop count is always decreasing with every rip so price can only go up." I think that argument is based on faulty logic and it could lead to poor returns on invested capital if the wrong unopened product is purchased. I think it's likely that the majority of unopened collectors do not open boxes valued over $250 on a regular basis. I also think price increases bring more product to market and collectors have more stuff stashed away than some might think. I may be out of the loop with current trends but I don't see as much Youtube activity with vintage breakers anymore either. Most of the stuff getting cracked open on Youtube is modern, in my experience (please correct me if I'm wrong!), so that might be an area to explore for investment. Personally I don't collect modern because I find it confusing.
Thoughts/Criticisms welcome!
picked up a 1981 grocery rack with ryan showing for $100. the ryan looks perfectly centered.
i
I just cant imagine vintage unopened going down in price at this point. they are not making any more of it, and when people open it, the total population only decreases.
the guys buying 10-20 years ago were really trailblazers.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Read my post just above yours from this morning and ask yourself: is the number of vintage unopened collectors going up or down? That’s important for price appreciation to outpace other asset classes and inflation.
Also, while total world population of unopened packs of say, 1972 Topps will always be decreasing, that doesn’t mean total packs for sale at any one given time will go down. Price is set on the margin.
That said, I am still bullish overall and on broad strokes, do agree with you. The unopened market always surprises me. One Canadian guy on the vintage wax and packs Facebook group brought some 60-80 boxes of 1987 OPC Baseball up for sale around $550 apiece. I wasn’t sure how liquid the ‘87 OPC market was, but they were gone in two days.
I’m also consistently surprised how at any one time there are 50-70 1993 SP Baseball boxes for sale on EBay priced anywhere from $2100 to $4500 (Buy it Now). But the auctions always get bid up to $2K and the market never skips a beat.
Will the price of unopened rise so high that it prices itself out of the majority of buyers price range? Thereby just trading within that high priced group of collectors? Which, how many are within that realm? Only their activity within can spike the price upward, not the average Joes involvement, who are priced out of that market.
I was once in art related hobby where the prices on vintage items increased so much that most exited. It has become a hobby that now everything is protection priced and most of the action is a few individuals trading amongst themselves.
As West22 said there no tax benefits of unopened/ In the long term if you are beating the S&P 500 by 20% (accounting for inflation and all auction house cuts are factored in) then I'd agree with calling it a solid investment but only if that is the case.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Agree there. When I was younger I had more money in cards than in stocks. It sounds crazy but I was saving everything I could and had a lot tied up in real estate and starting a business, so I dabbled in cards for fun with the little I had and didn't start investing in the stock market until I had paid down my mortgages and business debt. Now the vast majority of spare funds I have go into retirement accounts and experiences with my kids, and then lastly cards as a hobby. I have daughters who would rather play with American Girl dolls so the cards really do take a backseat these days.
Cards can't come close to comparing to real estate or stocks when it comes to tax advantages, unless you do it as a business and that's a whole other ballgame that I'd rather not delve into. So as FBWaxMemories said, there's at least a 20% hurdle for cards to outperform. If I sell a $200 box on eBay there is so much slippage it's insane, especially since USPS raised rates again this year. I know some high volume sellers get preferential fees on eBay but as a lower volume Top Rated Seller I pay 12% on the hammer price plus 12% of the sales tax for whatever state the buyer is from. So that 12% is often 14% (or more if you're not a Top Rated Seller). So conservatively knock $28 off the hammer price and another $12-$15 for shipping, and that's around 21% off your net. And that's all before you get a 1099 at the end of the year from eBay.
My uneducated opinion is that 80% of the price appreciation in vintage cards and boxes is due to the growth in wealth level of the boomers, who are the largest demographic among card collectors. The other 20% was due to a variety of factors, among them: a pandemic hobby boom, smaller collecting demographics such as Gen-X and millennials getting to higher income levels, and finally, the investing public broadly seeking out alternative investments such as fine art, collectibles and crypto. I observe high correlations between these markets as they all compete for excess capital that is separate from retirement and brokerage stock accounts.
As long as these broader wealth effects trends continue then I believe cards will continue to appreciate despite some collectors leaving or dying off. If you want to play demographic trends rather than investing in the tried and true blue chips such as Mantles, vintage graded, vintage unopened, MJ, Gretzky, then clearly Pokemon and modern seem to be fast growing options among youths, as well as MTG. I've observed strong price appreciation and growing levels of participation in these areas but you would need a wide breadth of knowledge regarding these markets as (my opinion) they are the most volatile. As a millennial and non-participant I may not be the greatest expert on this one so someone please correct me if I'm wrong.