Darin, sell one of those Brett Rookies and buy a freakin' new scanner for Gawds sake!!! We wanna see da goods!
The '75 set is one of my favs. Good choice on a killer rookie card man!
Luv the Vino/Vintage pack comparison natsturner.... I too enjoy cracking a fine bottle of Cabernet from time to time, and try to avoid ripping vintage packs after 'several' with friends.... so, that IS the key.... don't OPEN those old packs!!! The value is in the SEALED pack and the odds of pulling a GEM superstar or rookie are really not that good. Sure, it does happen and I, as a pack collector, encourage it, (obviously for personal gain).... but hang on to those old guys and watch the value grow year after year.
I know it sounds like an excuse, but seriously I can't get my scanner to work. I am going to take
it to a computer store to get fixed or get a new one but I will post them at some point because
I do think all of them could have a shot at an upgrade and would like the boards' opinion.
Kendall, I do think it would be fun to have board "challenges". For example, somebody posts a
53 Mantle(one of your favorites, I believe) PSA 8, or 7 or whatever grade, and asks if anyone has a nicer looking card in the same grade, then anyone can respond, and then the board votes on who has the nicest example for the grade.
No real losers, because it would all be in fun. And we would get to see a lot of great looking cards.
I like the idea of a board challenge with cards, and I know I enjoy seeing other peoples cards and pickups to see what is out there. With card shops becoming non existent, a place where you open packs and share what you have, this board has become the de facto card shop. In reality what good or fun is it to collect stuff if nobody sees it. Having said tat get a scanner and let's see those Brett's
Don't we have enough gratuitous dinky compensation with the registry? I like it when everyone appreciates their cards for their own personal reasons and we get to hear the stories behind them. The last thing I want is for the board to turn into whose tiny dinky is bigger. No thanks.
@ReggieCleveland said:
Don't we have enough gratuitous dinky compensation with the registry? I like it when everyone appreciates their cards for their own personal reasons and we get to hear the stories behind them. The last thing I want is for the board to turn into whose tiny dinky is bigger. No thanks.
Arthur
I knew someone would take it the wrong way. It was just a thought to display how 'uncommon' the cards
that we collect can be when they look exemplary for the grade.
And maybe grow up a little, just because people like competition doesn't mean they're compensating
for something they're physically lacking.
@ReggieCleveland said:
Don't we have enough gratuitous dinky compensation with the registry? I like it when everyone appreciates their cards for their own personal reasons and we get to hear the stories behind them. The last thing I want is for the board to turn into whose tiny dinky is bigger. No thanks.
Arthur
I knew someone would take it the wrong way. It was just a thought to display how 'uncommon' the cards
that we collect can be when they look exemplary for the grade.
And maybe grow up a little, just because people like competition doesn't mean they're compensating
for something they're physically lacking.
I guess the best way to handle it is if you don't like looking at someone's "dinky" you can very simply not open the thread. I thought Darin's idea had some merit, and part of collecting is sharing what you have with others. Would not be a lot of fun to collect in a vacuum somewhere in BFE and nobody ever saw your cards but you.
I say enough with the infighting and let’s see some pictures of your prized possessions. Here is the current crown jewel of my OPC unopened collection. It was acquired some time ago, with the original tape intact sealing the box such that the packs have never been molested: Up 20, or down 20, it doesn’t matter as I would never consider selling it unless there was extreme circumstances.
Always looking for OPC "tape intact" baseball wax boxes, and 1984 OPC baseball PSA 10's for my set. Please PM or email me if you have any available.
I’ve also amassed some of these: 1988 and 1989 OPC baseball factory sets. They aren’t very valuable, but I love the “80’s feel” to them and they are much rarer than their wax box counterparts. I currently have 5 1989 sets, and 2 1988 sets.
Always looking for OPC "tape intact" baseball wax boxes, and 1984 OPC baseball PSA 10's for my set. Please PM or email me if you have any available.
Guys, I'm all for the spirit of the idea. I think it's a great one and would be a lot of fun. I'm just pointing out the crude reality of the internet and where, invariably, stuff like this goes, that's all. There's approximately infinity examples of it. Without fail, someone will get butt hurt and the thread will turn into a dumpster fire. By all means, go for it. It will be a great thread for multiple pages. But deep down inside, you all know I'm right. This is why we can't have nice things.
Yes, I know.... Arthur seems like a total party pooper no matter what size his 'dinky' is.... but I get where he's coming from.
Even when an innocent thread like this starts out as freindly competition, it does eventually become an all out war. You make a solid statement saying "we can't have nice things"... but that's not 100% true, we REALLY can.... just don't tell anyone!!!
That said.... nice OPC wax box Gemyanks.... but MINE is BIGGER!!!
Reviving this one not to gloat, but because the crisser tried to say he was right this week and figured all the new members deserved the facts. For those of you keppeing score at home you will note the math landed closer to the side of up 20 than on the side of down 20.
Stay strong, stay long, the sky appearantly is not falling! Buy unopened!!
Unopened is up far more than even 20% for the tougher years.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
@grote15 said:
Unopened is up far more than even 20% for the tougher years.
Agreed. Unopened at National will be interesting to say the least. The break pavilion will be even more entertaining. Might get some popcorn and watch the fur fly with moldy packs and millionaires who get pissed.
Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83. Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks. Prefer to buy in bulk.
@grote15 said:
Unopened is up far more than even 20% for the tougher years.
The stuff you are referring to, and I’m pretty certain I know lol, just aren’t seen much anymore on the open market so it’s tough to ascertain an actual market price. Those items are more like museum pcs anymore. Treasures if you will. They aren’t like a 1984 Topps wax box in which a real market price can be pinned down because they are being moved each and every day. So instead of trying to pin a % on that antiquity type stuff I like to refer to it as THROUGH THE ROOF, probably never coming down again, and largely not available. Meanwhile I will continue to stock my closets with early 80’s baseball where there is actual risk of a significant decline eventually because it’s still available at nearly every stop along the way. For now....
"Unopened is up far more than even 20% for the tougher years."
I agree. One that sticks out is not even a tough year, 1975 Topps Minis. Seriously with a monster unopened case find years ago I never thought this would be over 1200 ever after that find! Im seeing them go for 3800+ today. Id guess next year or 2 it will be 4500.00+. And most of those boxes are MisCut boxes! That example is highly traded and can be tracked. Pre 1969 boxes are museum pieces and priceless with time. I wish they would go down and hope they do but I have not seen this happen in the last few decades. Id love to own anything pre 1969 in full box form.
What none of us could have predicted at the time this thread was originally made was the increase in commercial opening of vintage packs. That has most certainly caused supply to get thinner and prices to increase.
The proportion of the increase that is attributable to the increased demand resulting from this activity is probably something that could be modeled. What can be said from just a superficial look is:
prices of early-mid 1970s unopened product have increased anywhere from 2x-4x in the past 18-24 months, depending on which year and packaging
These price increases have undoubtedly made it prohibitively expensive, if not almost impossible, to enter the vintage segment of the hobby for many who previously could have done so
There is no way back, unless there is another unknown cache of vintage unopened product still waiting to be found, as more and more packs get opened the supply gets more limited making it less frequently offered and only at premium pricing
It’s a bittersweet situation for those who are holding this material. The likelihood of finding more is reduced, and when you can the price will probably be a lot higher. The value of what you have, if you choose to sell, is higher.
It will indeed be interesting to see the choices made by current holders of this material.
Unopened market is strong and even stronger than a year ago, two years ago.... Unopened will always follow the basic laws of supply and demand, and one does not need to study Basic Econ 101 to know that with the supply constantly dwindling due to packs being opened by collectors. Now with these live rips being done by various dealers and others supply is being decreased at a much faster pace than in the past. With the demand already high it will continue to increase due to collectors worrying about product drying up, and prices are reflecting this recently.
I have grabbed a little unopened material in the last year or so and prices have without question became higher due to low inventories. One just needs to check BBCE and EBay to see this at work. Someone made the point that with the 70’s becoming scarce the 80’s are becoming the new 70’s. I would say that is an accurate way of putting it. I would also say that anyone who thinks it is going down please feel free to sell what you have because I would love to buy at a discount 😉
Here is a snapshot of some recent pickups this past year. Have a few more years and racks I am still looking for to add to my collection.
KC
4 regulars and one mini
Some late 70’s and early 80’s - a couple with HOFers showing
Reviewed some of the prices this weekend and I think we are up 20-100% percent since the original crisser bet. Glad I was a buyer instead of the seller I guess.
@rtimmer said:
Reviewed some of the prices this weekend and I think we are up 20-100% percent since the original crisser bet. Glad I was a buyer instead of the seller I guess.
No doubt. Crisser whiffed on this prediction and by a lot, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
@rtimmer said:
Reviewed some of the prices this weekend and I think we are up 20-100% percent since the original crisser bet. Glad I was a buyer instead of the seller I guess.
No doubt. Crisser whiffed on this prediction and by a lot, too.
Crisser didn't even swing, it was strike 3 looking.
Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83. Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks. Prefer to buy in bulk.
Was reviewing some of the historical pricing in this thread and looks like the recent stock market down turned has wether related or not led to an increase in unopened pricing.
The hilarious thing about you Cardbros is that you rip me, but you never examine yourselves.....it’s all about the “hobby” and “collecting”, right, yet every post here is about the money.
Fact is, I called the market crash driven by the speculators in 2016. You all denied it would happen because the first rule of being a Cardbro is that everything is rosy at all times. I couldn’t care less if you give me credit for it.
I think the interesting phenomenon going on right now is people spending lots and lots of time on the internet (nothing to do) and driving up card prices across the board (whether rational or not). Some of the prices for unopened (especially the "junk" era) has spiked in the last few weeks, especially on the Facebook groups that focus on unopened. Hard to imagine $5 boxes from a year ago going for $20, but that's happening. Late 80's star racks that were $1-2 each several months ago selling in minutes for $5 each. So not huge dollars on some of those items, but massive percentage increases. Look at the impact that the ESPN documentary on MJ has had on MJ prices lately as an example. My question is, if the quarantine goes on much longer, and if some of the white collar workers start being impacted financially (in my state oil companies are already starting early 80's style layoffs and furloughs and buyouts) will the market for collectibles (including sports cards) plummet? Restaurant workers surviving paycheck to paycheck probably weren't driving the unopened market before the crisis. But if the economy tanks for a longer period of time and larger businesses layoff workers, will the unopened market (and all sports cards in general) see a major correction? Or, will the spike in prices in the last few weeks become a "new normal?" Interesting questions. Wish I had a crystal ball. For now, fun to watch from the sidelines!
kevin
@TheCrisser said:
The hilarious thing about you Cardbros is that you rip me, but you never examine yourselves.....it’s all about the “hobby” and “collecting”, right, yet every post here is about the money.
Fact is, I called the market crash driven by the speculators in 2016. You all denied it would happen because the first rule of being a Cardbro is that everything is rosy at all times. I couldn’t care less if you give me credit for it.
Thanks for calling me out I will try and address your 2 points. First on the second point I think I am giving the Crisser full credit for his predictions but if not I will do it right here.
As background- Please review the thread started because in the spring of 2017 the Crisser repeatedly said in several postings that card and unopened pricing was going to “crash” so I published the then current BBCE unopened prices to measure which of us would be correct in predicting the next 20% move in the market.
The Crisser doubled down saying in July 2017: @CrissCriss said:
I think it's pretty stagnant and will stay there. Nice run from 2009-15. It's over.
For the record and to give you the full credit you deserve I admit that: prices never retreated 20% and your repeated predictions of a crash were never correct. Prices have risen much more than 20% in fact most items would have to fall by more than 70% now to fall your predicted 20% so I now give you full credit for being wrong.
Now back to your first point- I Don’t believe this post wasn’t about the money in fact in my Aug 17th 2017 post I specifically purchased up a 1989 Score football case to show I was willing to put my money where my mouth was. As a pure monetary investment because I felt prices were going to rise I bought the case for $5,900 and while I couldn't find any sealed cases sold on eBay a few recent FASC box sales were at $650 or $13,000 for a case of 20 boxes. That’s a 120% price increase not adding in an extra value for my case still being sealed.
I readily admit I am a collector that tries to make money within my interests, for another example please check out this thread on Roger Clemens and Barry bonds that I started a few years ago to specifically try and make a profit:
The truth is a hard thing to bend but hopefully everyone feels I’ve given the Crisser full credit for the accuracy of his predictions in this thread! The facts seem overwhelming at least to me.
If I wanted to pile on to how wrong TheCrisser has been in his card prices crashing prediction, I’d say something smart like unopened prices have gone up 20% in the last month alone.
But that Just wouldn’t be fair to TheCrisser...
Because a lot of boxes and packs are up well over 50 this month!
Seems like it’s the Crisser vs me in the up 20% vs down 20% unopened market prediction game again!
This week the Crisser again predicted a downward slide coming this winter so while I have no idea what prices will do this month I will take the up 20% over the next 18 months bet again.
For those new to the thread the last time the Crisser predicted the market was going to drop off a cliff I took the “it’s going up” side of the argument and invested in a 1989 Score Football case for $6000 in Aug of 2017 which by the way today is worth around $25,000.
I will admit that the pricing has gone up a lot this year, I mean some things have gone up more this year than they have in the last 10 years and most have even settled back a bit from the top over the last couple months. In spite of this historic rise and settling I see the unopened market doubling again over the next 3 years from here, but to win this bet I only need it to go up 20% instead of down 20% in the next 18 months.
So this week the Crisser wrote the following predicting the market is going down from here so I will take the other side of the bet again and start looking for an easy to follow $5-6k item to bet on the upside with again.
TheCrisser: “Prices starting to slide downward already, as people grow more wary of a long dark winter economically and with the virus still raging. Subtle so far but all the signs are there. Glad I made some shifts a few weeks ago.
Will hit the blue chips last if at all, but unmistakably the signs are present. Enjoy your cardboard.“
"Cardbros" lol!!
Reminds me of the Yahoo finance boards' paid trolls trying to beat down a stock price.
Must have a pretty good short position on the cardboard market
To recap from the other thread: On Nov 10th the Crisser predicted the market would collapse and on the 13th I predicted the market would rise 20% before it dropped 20% plus I would find an “investment card” to put my money where my mouth is so to speak.
I wanted to choose an iconic, available and representative card so that anyone else that wanted to follow along with me could and today I have found that card!
First let’s take a look at the average pricing of this card over the last year:
Dec 2019 $750
Jan 2020 $825
Feb $925
Mar $1,100
Apr $1,300
May $1,750
Jun $2,000
Jul $5,000
Aug $8,000
Sep $4,200
Oct. $3,250
Nov. $4,250 * Nov 10 Crisser predicts a fall is about to begin *
You can see from the price plotting that this card has seen a 500% appreciation in the last yr which is awesome for long term owners. I’m thinking Anyone buying in Jul and Aug could have used a price decline warning then but since the Crissers warning came on Nov 10th we will start my up 20% versus his down 20% measurement from there.
I have recently acquired this card and it is.... the iconic 1972 PSA 8 Dr J rookie. Let’s the games begin and feel free to buy along with me!
I'm in with you. Sent these in to be graded months ago. Hoping I get them back before christmas. The Dr. J I'm hoping is a 4, but maybe comes back a 3. I plan on holding them all at least until next year, maybe longer.
I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. Collecting: post world war II HOF rookie 76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals) successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
A few nice Dr J rookies going on sale this week at the REA auction it will be interesting to see where they land. My 8 was in at $4,250 but I think with the season starting soon we will see a nice bump in prices and maybe even $5,100 to win the bet!!
Looks like this last heritage auction set the all-time auction record at $22 million. Looks like those following my prediction for the rise in prices in 2017 have significantly benefit with where things are selling at today.
@TheCrisser said:
The hilarious thing about you Cardbros is that you rip me, but you never examine yourselves.....it’s all about the “hobby” and “collecting”, right, yet every post here is about the money.
Fact is, I called the market crash driven by the speculators in 2016. You all denied it would happen because the first rule of being a Cardbro is that everything is rosy at all times. I couldn’t care less if you give me credit for it.
Thanks for calling me out I will try and address your 2 points. First on the second point I think I am giving the Crisser full credit for his predictions but if not I will do it right here.
As background- Please review the thread started because in the spring of 2017 the Crisser repeatedly said in several postings that card and unopened pricing was going to “crash” so I published the then current BBCE unopened prices to measure which of us would be correct in predicting the next 20% move in the market.
The Crisser doubled down saying in July 2017: @CrissCriss said:
I think it's pretty stagnant and will stay there. Nice run from 2009-15. It's over.
For the record and to give you the full credit you deserve I admit that: prices never retreated 20% and your repeated predictions of a crash were never correct. Prices have risen much more than 20% in fact most items would have to fall by more than 70% now to fall your predicted 20% so I now give you full credit for being wrong.
Now back to your first point- I Don’t believe this post wasn’t about the money in fact in my Aug 17th 2017 post I specifically purchased up a 1989 Score football case to show I was willing to put my money where my mouth was. As a pure monetary investment because I felt prices were going to rise I bought the case for $5,900 and while I couldn't find any sealed cases sold on eBay a few recent FASC box sales were at $650 or $13,000 for a case of 20 boxes. That’s a 120% price increase not adding in an extra value for my case still being sealed.
I readily admit I am a collector that tries to make money within my interests, for another example please check out this thread on Roger Clemens and Barry bonds that I started a few years ago to specifically try and make a profit:
The truth is a hard thing to bend but hopefully everyone feels I’ve given the Crisser full credit for the accuracy of his predictions in this thread! The facts seem overwhelming at least to me.
Wow less than a year and box prices have gone from $650 to over $1,650. This 89 score case investment is now up 600% since the Crisser predicted the pricing crash.
@rtimmer said:
Decided to put some money on my side of the up 20% debate against Crisser. Picked this case up lets see how it does by Dec 18.
I see today a non FASC box sold for $4,000 on eBay and was reminded in Aug of 2017 that I bought the 1989 Score case because I thought the boxes were relatively cheap.
Now, in the last month the PSA 10 Aikman has jumped from $500 to over $1500, the Sanders’s Barry from $1200 to $3,600 and Deion 500 to 1000. Throw in Irvin at $500, Thurman Thomas, Atwater, Chris Carter and Derrick Thomas all going for over $100 and the boxes at $4k actually seem a little low.
Now it’s Super Bowl week so they may drop in 3 moths but with how strong the market is acting they could also be doubled by then too? Either way I’m pretty sure the Crisser got this move wrong 😀
As my Dad would say. "Buy quality desirable land, the Good Lord isn't making anymore of it". The same holds true with unopened. By quality, desirable unopened and it will go up in value. Its a simple philosophy.
Comments
Darin, sell one of those Brett Rookies and buy a freakin' new scanner for Gawds sake!!! We wanna see da goods!
The '75 set is one of my favs. Good choice on a killer rookie card man!
Luv the Vino/Vintage pack comparison natsturner.... I too enjoy cracking a fine bottle of Cabernet from time to time, and try to avoid ripping vintage packs after 'several' with friends.... so, that IS the key.... don't OPEN those old packs!!! The value is in the SEALED pack and the odds of pulling a GEM superstar or rookie are really not that good. Sure, it does happen and I, as a pack collector, encourage it, (obviously for personal gain).... but hang on to those old guys and watch the value grow year after year.
I like the idea of a board challenge with cards, and I know I enjoy seeing other peoples cards and pickups to see what is out there. With card shops becoming non existent, a place where you open packs and share what you have, this board has become the de facto card shop. In reality what good or fun is it to collect stuff if nobody sees it. Having said tat get a scanner and let's see those Brett's
Don't we have enough gratuitous dinky compensation with the registry? I like it when everyone appreciates their cards for their own personal reasons and we get to hear the stories behind them. The last thing I want is for the board to turn into whose tiny dinky is bigger. No thanks.
Arthur
I knew someone would take it the wrong way. It was just a thought to display how 'uncommon' the cards
that we collect can be when they look exemplary for the grade.
And maybe grow up a little, just because people like competition doesn't mean they're compensating
for something they're physically lacking.
@Darin you gotta give the Cam Scanner app that Tanner mentions in this thread a try,it works great.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/991211/how-to-scan-your-cards-beautifully#latest
Eric
Erikthredd’s MJ Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/publishedset/395035
Erikthredd’s Nike Air Jordan Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/basketball/key-card-sets/nike-poster-cards-michael-jordan-1985-1992/alltimeset/408486
I guess the best way to handle it is if you don't like looking at someone's "dinky" you can very simply not open the thread. I thought Darin's idea had some merit, and part of collecting is sharing what you have with others. Would not be a lot of fun to collect in a vacuum somewhere in BFE and nobody ever saw your cards but you.
KC
I say enough with the infighting and let’s see some pictures of your prized possessions. Here is the current crown jewel of my OPC unopened collection. It was acquired some time ago, with the original tape intact sealing the box such that the packs have never been molested: Up 20, or down 20, it doesn’t matter as I would never consider selling it unless there was extreme circumstances.
I’ve also amassed some of these: 1988 and 1989 OPC baseball factory sets. They aren’t very valuable, but I love the “80’s feel” to them and they are much rarer than their wax box counterparts. I currently have 5 1989 sets, and 2 1988 sets.
Guys, I'm all for the spirit of the idea. I think it's a great one and would be a lot of fun. I'm just pointing out the crude reality of the internet and where, invariably, stuff like this goes, that's all. There's approximately infinity examples of it. Without fail, someone will get butt hurt and the thread will turn into a dumpster fire. By all means, go for it. It will be a great thread for multiple pages. But deep down inside, you all know I'm right. This is why we can't have nice things.
Arthur
Yes, I know.... Arthur seems like a total party pooper no matter what size his 'dinky' is.... but I get where he's coming from.
Even when an innocent thread like this starts out as freindly competition, it does eventually become an all out war. You make a solid statement saying "we can't have nice things"... but that's not 100% true, we REALLY can.... just don't tell anyone!!!
That said.... nice OPC wax box Gemyanks.... but MINE is BIGGER!!!
Reviving this one not to gloat, but because the crisser tried to say he was right this week and figured all the new members deserved the facts. For those of you keppeing score at home you will note the math landed closer to the side of up 20 than on the side of down 20.
Stay strong, stay long, the sky appearantly is not falling! Buy unopened!!
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Unopened is up far more than even 20% for the tougher years.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Agreed. Unopened at National will be interesting to say the least. The break pavilion will be even more entertaining. Might get some popcorn and watch the fur fly with moldy packs and millionaires who get pissed.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
The stuff you are referring to, and I’m pretty certain I know lol, just aren’t seen much anymore on the open market so it’s tough to ascertain an actual market price. Those items are more like museum pcs anymore. Treasures if you will. They aren’t like a 1984 Topps wax box in which a real market price can be pinned down because they are being moved each and every day. So instead of trying to pin a % on that antiquity type stuff I like to refer to it as THROUGH THE ROOF, probably never coming down again, and largely not available. Meanwhile I will continue to stock my closets with early 80’s baseball where there is actual risk of a significant decline eventually because it’s still available at nearly every stop along the way. For now....
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
"Unopened is up far more than even 20% for the tougher years."
I agree. One that sticks out is not even a tough year, 1975 Topps Minis. Seriously with a monster unopened case find years ago I never thought this would be over 1200 ever after that find! Im seeing them go for 3800+ today. Id guess next year or 2 it will be 4500.00+. And most of those boxes are MisCut boxes! That example is highly traded and can be tracked. Pre 1969 boxes are museum pieces and priceless with time. I wish they would go down and hope they do but I have not seen this happen in the last few decades. Id love to own anything pre 1969 in full box form.
What none of us could have predicted at the time this thread was originally made was the increase in commercial opening of vintage packs. That has most certainly caused supply to get thinner and prices to increase.
The proportion of the increase that is attributable to the increased demand resulting from this activity is probably something that could be modeled. What can be said from just a superficial look is:
prices of early-mid 1970s unopened product have increased anywhere from 2x-4x in the past 18-24 months, depending on which year and packaging
These price increases have undoubtedly made it prohibitively expensive, if not almost impossible, to enter the vintage segment of the hobby for many who previously could have done so
There is no way back, unless there is another unknown cache of vintage unopened product still waiting to be found, as more and more packs get opened the supply gets more limited making it less frequently offered and only at premium pricing
It’s a bittersweet situation for those who are holding this material. The likelihood of finding more is reduced, and when you can the price will probably be a lot higher. The value of what you have, if you choose to sell, is higher.
It will indeed be interesting to see the choices made by current holders of this material.
Dave
Unopened market is strong and even stronger than a year ago, two years ago.... Unopened will always follow the basic laws of supply and demand, and one does not need to study Basic Econ 101 to know that with the supply constantly dwindling due to packs being opened by collectors. Now with these live rips being done by various dealers and others supply is being decreased at a much faster pace than in the past. With the demand already high it will continue to increase due to collectors worrying about product drying up, and prices are reflecting this recently.
I have grabbed a little unopened material in the last year or so and prices have without question became higher due to low inventories. One just needs to check BBCE and EBay to see this at work. Someone made the point that with the 70’s becoming scarce the 80’s are becoming the new 70’s. I would say that is an accurate way of putting it. I would also say that anyone who thinks it is going down please feel free to sell what you have because I would love to buy at a discount 😉
Here is a snapshot of some recent pickups this past year. Have a few more years and racks I am still looking for to add to my collection.
KC
4 regulars and one mini
Some late 70’s and early 80’s - a couple with HOFers showing
Reviewed some of the prices this weekend and I think we are up 20-100% percent since the original crisser bet. Glad I was a buyer instead of the seller I guess.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
No doubt. Crisser whiffed on this prediction and by a lot, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
When The Crisser tells you to bet on black, you bet on red.....EVERY time!
Crisser didn't even swing, it was strike 3 looking.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Unopened is always PLATINUM. Don't ever forget that.
chaz
A Heritage Auction closed last night with a few expensive prices for unopened items:
'86 Fleer Basketball Box $84,000
'57 Topps Baseball Wax Pack psa-8 $8100
'63 Topps Baseball Wax Pack psa-8 $9300 (printed in U.S.A. version w/5 cards in pack)
'61 Topps Baseball Wax Pack psa-9 $4680
'65 Topps Baseball Cello Pack (1st series) psa-10 $7200
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
This thread NEVER gets old!
crisser makes a broken clock look like nostradamus
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
But crisser IS predictable!
😉
Dave
Was reviewing some of the historical pricing in this thread and looks like the recent stock market down turned has wether related or not led to an increase in unopened pricing.
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
The hilarious thing about you Cardbros is that you rip me, but you never examine yourselves.....it’s all about the “hobby” and “collecting”, right, yet every post here is about the money.
Fact is, I called the market crash driven by the speculators in 2016. You all denied it would happen because the first rule of being a Cardbro is that everything is rosy at all times. I couldn’t care less if you give me credit for it.
I think the interesting phenomenon going on right now is people spending lots and lots of time on the internet (nothing to do) and driving up card prices across the board (whether rational or not). Some of the prices for unopened (especially the "junk" era) has spiked in the last few weeks, especially on the Facebook groups that focus on unopened. Hard to imagine $5 boxes from a year ago going for $20, but that's happening. Late 80's star racks that were $1-2 each several months ago selling in minutes for $5 each. So not huge dollars on some of those items, but massive percentage increases. Look at the impact that the ESPN documentary on MJ has had on MJ prices lately as an example. My question is, if the quarantine goes on much longer, and if some of the white collar workers start being impacted financially (in my state oil companies are already starting early 80's style layoffs and furloughs and buyouts) will the market for collectibles (including sports cards) plummet? Restaurant workers surviving paycheck to paycheck probably weren't driving the unopened market before the crisis. But if the economy tanks for a longer period of time and larger businesses layoff workers, will the unopened market (and all sports cards in general) see a major correction? Or, will the spike in prices in the last few weeks become a "new normal?" Interesting questions. Wish I had a crystal ball. For now, fun to watch from the sidelines!
kevin
Still waiting for my unopened Skybox "Blue Chips" basketball box to take off.
Thanks for calling me out I will try and address your 2 points. First on the second point I think I am giving the Crisser full credit for his predictions but if not I will do it right here.
As background- Please review the thread started because in the spring of 2017 the Crisser repeatedly said in several postings that card and unopened pricing was going to “crash” so I published the then current BBCE unopened prices to measure which of us would be correct in predicting the next 20% move in the market.
The Crisser doubled down saying in July 2017:
@CrissCriss said:
I think it's pretty stagnant and will stay there. Nice run from 2009-15. It's over.
For the record and to give you the full credit you deserve I admit that: prices never retreated 20% and your repeated predictions of a crash were never correct. Prices have risen much more than 20% in fact most items would have to fall by more than 70% now to fall your predicted 20% so I now give you full credit for being wrong.
Now back to your first point- I Don’t believe this post wasn’t about the money in fact in my Aug 17th 2017 post I specifically purchased up a 1989 Score football case to show I was willing to put my money where my mouth was. As a pure monetary investment because I felt prices were going to rise I bought the case for $5,900 and while I couldn't find any sealed cases sold on eBay a few recent FASC box sales were at $650 or $13,000 for a case of 20 boxes. That’s a 120% price increase not adding in an extra value for my case still being sealed.
I readily admit I am a collector that tries to make money within my interests, for another example please check out this thread on Roger Clemens and Barry bonds that I started a few years ago to specifically try and make a profit:
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/966803/my-clemens-and-bonds-hof-collection/p1
The truth is a hard thing to bend but hopefully everyone feels I’ve given the Crisser full credit for the accuracy of his predictions in this thread! The facts seem overwhelming at least to me.
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Hahaha Looks like the ball is in your court now "Cardbro".
From the looks of the final prices of unopened in Heritage last night, I'd say the market remains strong...and getting stronger.
If I wanted to pile on to how wrong TheCrisser has been in his card prices crashing prediction, I’d say something smart like unopened prices have gone up 20% in the last month alone.
But that Just wouldn’t be fair to TheCrisser...
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Seems like it’s the Crisser vs me in the up 20% vs down 20% unopened market prediction game again!
This week the Crisser again predicted a downward slide coming this winter so while I have no idea what prices will do this month I will take the up 20% over the next 18 months bet again.
For those new to the thread the last time the Crisser predicted the market was going to drop off a cliff I took the “it’s going up” side of the argument and invested in a 1989 Score Football case for $6000 in Aug of 2017 which by the way today is worth around $25,000.
I will admit that the pricing has gone up a lot this year, I mean some things have gone up more this year than they have in the last 10 years and most have even settled back a bit from the top over the last couple months. In spite of this historic rise and settling I see the unopened market doubling again over the next 3 years from here, but to win this bet I only need it to go up 20% instead of down 20% in the next 18 months.
So this week the Crisser wrote the following predicting the market is going down from here so I will take the other side of the bet again and start looking for an easy to follow $5-6k item to bet on the upside with again.
TheCrisser: “Prices starting to slide downward already, as people grow more wary of a long dark winter economically and with the virus still raging. Subtle so far but all the signs are there. Glad I made some shifts a few weeks ago.
Will hit the blue chips last if at all, but unmistakably the signs are present. Enjoy your cardboard.“
Let’s see if the sky is falling this time??
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
"Cardbros" lol!!
Reminds me of the Yahoo finance boards' paid trolls trying to beat down a stock price.
Must have a pretty good short position on the cardboard market
it seems unopened hockey is skyrocketing - compared to other sports the production numbers are tiny.
To recap from the other thread: On Nov 10th the Crisser predicted the market would collapse and on the 13th I predicted the market would rise 20% before it dropped 20% plus I would find an “investment card” to put my money where my mouth is so to speak.
I wanted to choose an iconic, available and representative card so that anyone else that wanted to follow along with me could and today I have found that card!
First let’s take a look at the average pricing of this card over the last year:
Dec 2019 $750
Jan 2020 $825
Feb $925
Mar $1,100
Apr $1,300
May $1,750
Jun $2,000
Jul $5,000
Aug $8,000
Sep $4,200
Oct. $3,250
Nov. $4,250 * Nov 10 Crisser predicts a fall is about to begin *
You can see from the price plotting that this card has seen a 500% appreciation in the last yr which is awesome for long term owners. I’m thinking Anyone buying in Jul and Aug could have used a price decline warning then but since the Crissers warning came on Nov 10th we will start my up 20% versus his down 20% measurement from there.
I have recently acquired this card and it is.... the iconic 1972 PSA 8 Dr J rookie. Let’s the games begin and feel free to buy along with me!
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
@rtimmer,
I'm in with you. Sent these in to be graded months ago. Hoping I get them back before christmas. The Dr. J I'm hoping is a 4, but maybe comes back a 3. I plan on holding them all at least until next year, maybe longer.
1 1 49107315 1972 TOPPS 195 JULIUS ERVING
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2 1 49107316 1958 TOPPS 47 ROGER MARIS
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3 1 49107317 1957 TOPPS 151 PAUL HORNUNG
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4 1 49107318 1971 TOPPS 26 BERT BLYLEVEN
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5 1 49107319 1960 TOPPS 148 CARL YASTRZEMSKI ROOKIE STAR
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6 1 49107320 1955 TOPPS 124 HARMON KILLEBREW
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7 1 49107321 1957 TOPPS 35 FRANK ROBINSON
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8 1 49107322 1969 TOPPS 260 REGGIE JACKSON
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9 1 49107323 1967 TOPPS 569 A.L. ROOKIES R.CAREW/H.ALLEN
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Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
Good luck with your Dr J grading!
A few nice Dr J rookies going on sale this week at the REA auction it will be interesting to see where they land. My 8 was in at $4,250 but I think with the season starting soon we will see a nice bump in prices and maybe even $5,100 to win the bet!!
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/lots/gallery?search=Erving&searchin=title
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Looks like this last heritage auction set the all-time auction record at $22 million. Looks like those following my prediction for the rise in prices in 2017 have significantly benefit with where things are selling at today.
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Wow less than a year and box prices have gone from $650 to over $1,650. This 89 score case investment is now up 600% since the Crisser predicted the pricing crash.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
did the crisser get crossed? (banned)
I see today a non FASC box sold for $4,000 on eBay and was reminded in Aug of 2017 that I bought the 1989 Score case because I thought the boxes were relatively cheap.
Now, in the last month the PSA 10 Aikman has jumped from $500 to over $1500, the Sanders’s Barry from $1200 to $3,600 and Deion 500 to 1000. Throw in Irvin at $500, Thurman Thomas, Atwater, Chris Carter and Derrick Thomas all going for over $100 and the boxes at $4k actually seem a little low.
Now it’s Super Bowl week so they may drop in 3 moths but with how strong the market is acting they could also be doubled by then too? Either way I’m pretty sure the Crisser got this move wrong 😀
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Up
Up
Down
Down
Left
Right
Left
Right
B
A
= You win
As my Dad would say. "Buy quality desirable land, the Good Lord isn't making anymore of it". The same holds true with unopened. By quality, desirable unopened and it will go up in value. Its a simple philosophy.