Where is the unopened market heading, Up 20% or Down 20%?
rtimmer
Posts: 1,347 ✭✭✭✭
Wanted to start this as a clean discussion from the previous posting. Here's my prediction with today BBCE prices to see where we will finish 2018 at. Please weigh in to cast your stance if you're in the up 20% or down 20% camp. Here's my original post:
I do think CrissCriss is correct in that certain cards have corrected or are in correction meaning they have declined in value atleast 10% from their high. It appears others cards may still be in their upward trend like the Bird/magic rookie or the Thomas as some suggest and if Anyone chooses to post that data we would see for sure those data points.
I think the reason most who post are so dismissive of the OP is because he has on many previous posts said the market correction was coming or was happening but the prices moved much higher instead. Even if he is actually right today they feel his advice is useless because if they would have listened previous times they would have missed out on 50%+ upside moves so catching a 10% down move still puts them behind.
Being open minded I do think we have seen a 10% decline in a wide enough pool to say we probably have seen a correction in vintage baseball cards, 1978/79 unopened and 1986 fleer basketball.
Now for the useful part of this discussion... Where do we go next, is the next 10% move up or down? Actually I don't know, I think the sentiment is implied if not outright stated Criss thinks it downward. If I were to take a stance I would stand behind the next 20% being upward not downward for unopened and 1970's/80s basketball cards. I will try to capture some of today's prices so we can compare where they finish 2018 and see if I'm closer that it's 20% up or Criss is right and its closer to 20% down.
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Comments
Today's BBCE pricing: July 23, 2017
Topps baseball-
1974---$195 (15 Cent wax)
1975---$89 (mini-wax)
1975---$169 (mini-cello)
1976---$139 (wax)
1977---$90 (wax)
1978---$53 (Cello)
1978---$115 (Rack)
1979---$49 (Cello)
1979---$38 (wax)
1980---$45 (Cello)
1980---$28 (wax)
1981---$260 (Topps wax box)
1982---$260 (Topps wax box)
1983---$260 (Topps wax box)
1984---$85 (Topps wax box)
1985---$89 (Donruss wax box) no Topps offered
Composite= $1964
Basketball-
1978---$575 (Topps wax box)
1979---$550 (Topps wax box)
1980---$6,000 (Topps wax box)
1981---$575 (Topps wax box)
1986---$1,000 (Fleer wax pack)
1987---$5,500 (Fleer wax box)
1988---$1,800 (Fleer wax box)
Composite= $16,000
Football-
1979---$1,250 (Topps cello or wax box)
1980---$350 (Topps wax box)
1982---$425 (Topps wax box)
1984---$1,200 (Topps wax box)
1986---$1,800 (Topps wax box)
1989---$320 (score wax box)
Composite= $5,345
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
We are better than 2009. That is all that matters. Short term 1 year shifts are irrelevant.
Yes I totally agree factory sealed case wax tray pricing is and should be higher than loose pack pricing. But I think everyone here would take that statement for granted. To be clear the above pricing list is not my own pricing value list, I just simply copied down the prices the BBCE had on their website today for the items they had for sale. I feel while this listing could be slightly imperfect they will be around in 18 months with a representative offering of the same unopened items to be able to make a fair comparison.
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1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Hmmmm ... and who is selling THIS crap?????
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1979-Topps-Baseball-Empty-Wax-Tray-Cardboard-Lot-Of-20-Backings-No-Cards-/292161683353?hash=item4406317f99:g:UQQAAOSwGtRXyK~z
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
SO you just ended that auction ... how about THIS one you are still running?????
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1979-Topps-Baseball-Unopened-Rack-Pack-End-Card-288-Count-Lot-/292178668464?hash=item440734abb0:g:CL4AAOSwCmZZPFPV
Hmmm ... and ANOTHER one! Talk about fake packs ...
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1979-Topps-Baseball-Unopened-Rack-Pack-End-Card-144-Count-Lot-/302374392085?hash=item4666eb1115:g:ESwAAOSw0hlZNIFy
And here are the wrappers ...
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1979-Topps-Baseball-Wax-Pack-Wrapper-Lot-Of-76-Wrappers-/302379484758?hash=item466738c656:g:pzcAAOSwFdtXyKx5
One would think with all of the valuable '78 and '79 cards you have sitting in PSA slabs you wouldn't need to sell "Resealing Kits" to make a few extra bucks.
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
Baseball and Football down, Basketball and Hockey up from current market prices.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
Ha!! Love your sig line
At this point the "habitual naysayer" gets lumped in with the likes of Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf as far as I am concerned.
Even a broken analog clock appears to be correct twice a day!
If you want to talk facts, then let's talk facts. 5-6 individuals (and several auctioneers) were manipulating auctions (or looking the other way and letting things happen that they should not have) on certain cards starting as far back as 2015 and dramatically escalating between late March of 2016 - June, 2016. When it finally became obvious the prices on these certain cards gradually slipped back (though still far above where they began).
The "run-up" on 70s baseball unopened from late 2014-2015 was similarly rapid, but was not artificial. Due to scarcity and the limited availability of reliable authentication the laws of supply and demand were the majority of the fuel in that upward move. As the move continued the emotion of the move drove an over-estimation of scarcity for later 1970s unopened product leading to a bit of a pullback in 1977-1979 unopened product starting in the fall of 2016. But the truly scarcer material from 1970-1976 (excepting 1975 mini, 1973 series 4 wax and 1975 cello) has remained basically rock solid since that move. Consider the following:
Barring a significantly negative economic hit in the next year, I expect vintage baseball unopened prices to stay more or less where they are now. Premiums for sealed cases and boxes will still also be expected.
Dave
Crisser, how can it be over. This material just keeps getting older and harder to find.
Pull a 75 topps baseball wax case out of your closet and put it on the market
and then you'll find out how stagnant the market is.
These should be completely illegal to sell, parts to make up a rack pack!..Guess it's time to bring out the
Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
Even worse, same guy bought these. 3 rack boxes and voila, you can make your own 1979 Topps case...Freaking scary!
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1979-Topps-Baseball-3-Box-Rack-Case-Empty-/292094629285?nma=true&si=sO1Rnu7seX5LurNz0mdth3fTTVI%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1979-Topps-Baseball-Unopened-Rack-Pack-End-Card-72-Count-Lot-/292094629284?nma=true&si=sO1Rnu7seX5LurNz0mdth3fTTVI%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
I hate the Crisser see you tomorrow
$195 for a pack of 1974? most 9's don't even sell for over $100. I think supply and demand is starting to swing. the demand just isn't there for these unopened because the risk is higher than the reward. just because 1974 packs are a little less available doesn't mean anyone really wants them at those inflated prices.
I get all of my unopened cases from a person on the board that goes by "jenny". she has quite a selection at very reasonable prices. I picked an unopened case of 1969 basketball wax last week. she "blows" bbce away.
When you assume that the only people who buy unopened are those who want to rip it for submittsble cards you miss the point.
Those who COLLECT unopened product are plentiful and the normal laws of supply and demand continue to be in effect. In fact, those who rip just cause the supply to shrink further pushing the price over the remaining unopened over the longer term.
Dave
i think prices will still be all over the map but i would still say more upside...i can tell you from what i have seen is certain products are just getting impossible to find... football like 1976 racks also 1986 topps football racks are almost impossible to find and just keep going up...i also agree with 1975 baseball racks and packs are starting to move back up again im sure things will be all over the map but i do see more upside in the next year ...
I don't see a decrease or increase of 20%. Market has stabilized and there is enough product around to satisfy demand.
True scarcer items will always be an anomaly to this, so my opinion is based on the above mentioned items by the OP.
Can someone explain to me why this would warrant a "flag" from a couple of users? Unless I'm mistaking, I'm pretty sure 99.9% of us would not want to sell the headers in that quantity...5 or 10, maybe for a collection, but 72??? I'm just a bit confused as to why someone would consider this quite offensive..I don't have a problem with the box being sold, but the scary part was that the box and the headers were sold to the same guy, now he has all of the parts to make a 1979 rack case once he gets 3 rack boxes which wouldn't be too hard...That scares the heck out of me and if I collected that year, would make me think twice about where a case came from...
Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
Wait a minute how can the down 20% side of my up 20% side debate on the unopened market now be predicting neutral? Is this breaking news and all the sky is falling posts referenced are going to cease?
70Toppsfanatic, I totally respect your neutral call and agree with several elements of your reasoning. Though not an original choice I do think Neutral (0%) is a very valid opinion in the up 20 down 20 debate, but for the guy who starts thread after thread with the general "sell now or regret your losses tomorrow" can't be in the neutral camp and this not be big news right?
Crisper no offense but you are the most bearish (prices are going to crash tomorrow) person I know on the boards and if the most bearish person I know will only commit to "unopened prices are going to be stagnant/neutral" I feel I've already won this theoretical debate.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
I added football unopened pricing so we can compare the 3 major sports too:
Football-
1979---$1,250 (Topps cello or wax box)
1980---$350 (Topps wax box)
1982---$425 (Topps wax box)
1984---$1,200 (Topps wax box)
1986---$1,800 (Topps wax box)
1989---$320 (score wax box)
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
I didn't make it but from what I've head from nationals I'm more confident in my strong market call than the Crissers call for a fall. Anyone have a story of increasing or decreasing prices from their visit?
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Maybe we could have BBCE shrink wrap the Crisser and then see if he increases or decreases in value by next year's National?
Dave
Im in for two boxes of FASC. From a sealed Crisser.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Lol. Made me think of this.
Kevin
Yea, but would Steve be able to "authenticate" him?? Or would he be considered "questionable"
Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
"You got 3 pints of Kramer in you buddy!"
Love it!
KC
Decided to put some money on my side of the up 20% debate against Crisser. Picked this case up lets see how it does by Dec 18.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Hi Doug,
Who is "you" in your post?
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Presumably bubblebathgirl.
That's what I thought, but he uses the noun "you". Inferring Bubblebathgirl is in this thread??
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
I believe he was talking to @UltimateSchmidt (whom never posted in this particular thread, but was copied over here)
I read it as him addressing BBG without him actually being present.
I assure you, BBG is forever lurking... and certainly makes an appearance every now and again.
Strangely enough some people mentioned in this thread have been absent for a while...
BBG, aka arod75, ultimateschmidt or dkfastball, the reason I have 42 "abuses" on my account...just because I mentioned those same listings. If I remember right, Doug also has quite a few "abuse" tags also from that individual. And I suspect my total will go up again
Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
Thank you Mark Murphy and Paul Wright.... two collectors I am most grateful to have met that paved the way towards hobby euphoria.
Once upon a time.... and yes, this will be a story ~ so grab a beer, put on some soothing background music, settle back in your favorite recliner and read....
Years ago (yes I'm old yet I still remember) I attended my first major sport card show, the 1991 Anaheim National Sports Collectors Convention. I had in hand some major rookie cards to sell, most noteworthy were my 1954 Aaron and 1955 Clemente rookies. I thought I had a fistful of gold with my handful of cards, yet as I walked to each table, it seemed nearly everyone had the same cards I had. Sadly, that made me realize I was simply another card collector with just a few of the TENS OF THOUSANDS of the same single cards that have been printed and are still readily available today. Granted, these cards are, in my opinion, two of the finest rookies a collector should have in their collection.... but seeing so many of the same card just at that one show alone made me realize they aren't rare or special at all.
Then, there sat The Baseball Card Kid, at his table filled with unopened packs and boxes, some the likes of which I have never seen before and I collected cards as a kid back in the early 60's....did I mention I was old? Mark was well dressed, pleasant to talk with, seemed very passionate about his unopened niche in the hobby and unknowingly drew me in to what I still consider the BEST part of this hobby of ours ~ vintage unopened packs! I stopped collecting single cards right then and never turned back. So your 20% up, 20% down question isn't even in the ballpark.. no pun. I've seen many vintage unopened packs - and I'm referring to packs from the 50's, 60's and early 70's - go up 100%, 200%, 300% and higher over the years. The beauty of those lofty increases, is, they NEVER go down. I've been a vintage pack whore for nearly 30 years now and though my initial goal wasn't to make tons of money, I NEVER sold a pack for less than I paid. That speaks volumes when compared to single cards that shot up in value but came crashing down just as quickly leaving so many collectors scrambling to dump their overpriced singles. Yes, I know there are exceptions which I will most definitely get an earful from the more outspoken board members, but in general the unopened market is still da BOMB and the mere fact the supply is always decreasing (with packs still being opened by those lucky few that can afford that thrill) and the demand is always increasing even with the more limited collector base.
The post with the 1989 Score Football Case 'test' is noteworthy. I love the '89 Score Football, terrific colors, outstanding number of stars and rookies and nearly 30 years old, but it's far from vintage and I'd bet for every hundred 1989 Score Football Cases still out there, you'll only find one 1963 or 1965 Topps Baseball Cello pack for instance. That case may go up 20% some time in the future but I'd rather put my money into a vintage pack that WILL go up at least 20% in the future. So, those who claim the unopened market is stagnant or falling.... I for one have to disagree based on my 30+ years enjoying that incredible part of our hobby.
....and I lived happily ever after......even being married.....
Unopened isn't my shtick or racket but it does create some interesting threads.
Along these lines, I have a rack case that I bought a while ago that still has the Fritsch mailing label that Topps put on it to send it to Larry. If I ever sell the case, is that worth noting?
Yes, that's pretty rock solid provenance.
Glad to see this thread revived and glad to see "the old guy" on my side of the debate with the Crisser. Let's see what the next 12 months bring, I have a feeling I'm ahead in the up 20% prediction but 12 months is a long time left to go.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Thank you LuvOldPacks. Great write-up. I too love the old unopened. And bought from both Paul and Mark. Not sure about pricing for the newer items, but can tell you that the unopened from the 50's and 60's is getting next to impossible to find or purchase. If you want a 1952 Topps Mantle, you have lots of choices. If you want a 1958 Topps wax pack, good luck! Same with a 1965 Topps cello pack. Next to impossible.
...and the beauty of our hobby is there is something for everyone, albeit, at some lofty prices at times, but the bottom line is to enjoy what you collect. I do.....
Add Mortiz to that list of alibis (and abuse reporters).
Arthur
My favorite card in the hobby is the 1975 George Brett rookie card.
I have 14 total Brett rookies, 5 are graded PSA 8. I would bet anyone that
they cannot collect 5 PSA 8 Brett rookies that look nicer than my five.
You mentioned in your unopened post about cards being so common,
that's just one way to have fun with it.
Similar to wine, it's one of the few collectibles that the inventory decreases over time (obviously as people open the material, or in the case of wine drink it), therefore scarcity increases which typically leads to higher prices in the future. Reward goes to the person who can buy the unopened material and not open it!
Ok Darin - let's see those Brett rookies!
KC
UP!
I know it sounds like an excuse, but seriously I can't get my scanner to work. I am going to take
it to a computer store to get fixed or get a new one but I will post them at some point because
I do think all of them could have a shot at an upgrade and would like the boards' opinion.
Kendall, I do think it would be fun to have board "challenges". For example, somebody posts a
53 Mantle(one of your favorites, I believe) PSA 8, or 7 or whatever grade, and asks if anyone has a nicer looking card in the same grade, then anyone can respond, and then the board votes on who has the nicest example for the grade.
No real losers, because it would all be in fun. And we would get to see a lot of great looking cards.