Where is the unopened market heading, Up 20% or Down 20%?
Wanted to start this as a clean discussion from the previous posting. Here's my prediction with today BBCE prices to see where we will finish 2018 at. Please weigh in to cast your stance if you're in the up 20% or down 20% camp. Here's my original post:
I do think CrissCriss is correct in that certain cards have corrected or are in correction meaning they have declined in value atleast 10% from their high. It appears others cards may still be in their upward trend like the Bird/magic rookie or the Thomas as some suggest and if Anyone chooses to post that data we would see for sure those data points.
I think the reason most who post are so dismissive of the OP is because he has on many previous posts said the market correction was coming or was happening but the prices moved much higher instead. Even if he is actually right today they feel his advice is useless because if they would have listened previous times they would have missed out on 50%+ upside moves so catching a 10% down move still puts them behind.
Being open minded I do think we have seen a 10% decline in a wide enough pool to say we probably have seen a correction in vintage baseball cards, 1978/79 unopened and 1986 fleer basketball.
Now for the useful part of this discussion... Where do we go next, is the next 10% move up or down? Actually I don't know, I think the sentiment is implied if not outright stated Criss thinks it downward. If I were to take a stance I would stand behind the next 20% being upward not downward for unopened and 1970's/80s basketball cards. I will try to capture some of today's prices so we can compare where they finish 2018 and see if I'm closer that it's 20% up or Criss is right and its closer to 20% down.
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