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Grade Poppage Thread (Through-Date Estimation)

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    envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:

    @weaselpuppy said:
    progress grinding to a halt lately...Value Modern hasn't moved in a week, Express and Ultra Mod in 5-6 days, Regular 1 in last 5 days....yes we know it's not that nothing is going out, but when half the categories freeze up on clearing the last subs from those days, it does not bode well for expectations of seeing our cards sometime before the New Year (hopefully Western and not Lunar...)

    first time in quite a while that i haven't had anything pop in over a week. was having almost 1 per day up until.....1/14/21.

    very few reporting any sub poppage here either. it's concerning.

    Given the lack of movement on the CTD's I guess it is consistent though a bit surprising. Maybe they just had a pile of walk-through subs they needed to move the needle on and everything else suffered. Given the progress over the last 10-14 days it seems like they are picking a service level to move. I can only assume that decision is being driven by what they know has arrived and will be needed.

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    envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide said:
    Huzzah! Great hope and optimism abounds. I've finally made it to grading ...


    So you're about a month ahead of CTD which is a good sign! May the graders smile upon you!

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭
    edited March 22, 2021 10:22AM

    @envoy982 said:
    So you're about a month ahead of CTD which is a good sign! May the graders smile upon you!

    The way I figure, as of today Value-Modern CTD is July 12 2020. My entered date is Oct 7 2020 -- 87 days away from that date. If they manage to keep up with Value-Modern CTD's daily, (which they currently aren't) than if I'm the last order processed for my entered date, I'm complete on June 17, 2021 -- 87 days from today. WooHoo!

    Fingers crossed for favorable grading gods!

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    blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide said:

    @envoy982 said:
    So you're about a month ahead of CTD which is a good sign! May the graders smile upon you!

    The way I figure, as of today Value-Modern CTD is July 12 2020. My entered date is Oct 7 2020 -- 87 days away from that date. If they manage to keep up with Value-Modern CTD's daily, (which they currently aren't) than if I'm the last order processed for my entered date, I'm complete on June 17, 2021 -- 87 days from today. WooHoo!

    Fingers crossed for favorable grading gods!

    ahhhh yes, i remember my first beer! 😉

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    DEFPOTECDEFPOTEC Posts: 99 ✭✭✭

    One-card super express order:

    Arrived March 16, logged March 18, popped today (March 22).

    GOOD+ 2.5
    1958 Ave Ltda. Colecao Titulares 50 Pele

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    bobbybakerivbobbybakeriv Posts: 2,186 ✭✭✭✭

    @ DEFPOTEC said:
    One-card super express order:

    Arrived March 16, logged March 18, popped today (March 22).

    GOOD+ 2.5
    1958 Ave Ltda. Colecao Titulares 50 Pele

    Still appreciate the username! I am a soccer ignoramus. I know the big names (e.g., Beckenbauer, Chinaglia, Maradona, Cryuff, Zidane, Messi, Renaldo...please forgive my misspelling if it's there), but not the actual game at all. It took me a while to understand "offsides" LOL sorta like the NHL for me. For the record, I do own about 500 '77 NHL AS cards that are really nice (i.e., gradable) . I never played nor even watched hockey back then (~late '70s) but loved the AS designation for some assuredly OCD-related reason. I only add this b/c if Topps was producing pro soccer All-Star cards at the time, I would have collected those too! Heck, I likely would have collected any Topps card/sport or even non-sport if it had an AS designation including Cricket or Rock Band All-Stars!. LOL

    In other words, I only know these specific players are/were great b/c somebody else told me so. :) But Pele' was always the absolute G.O.A.T to me (from what little I knew/know). I was a kid when NASL was around for reference. For true soccer fans with knowledge, is this still the case?

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    blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:
    3 cards, express level

    recd: 2/23/21
    logged:
    popped:

    approaching a month on "express".

    eta: and this isn't the only express/regulars i have in. i just don't wanna get depressed or waste anymore time looking at them all.

    i'm having a real hard time trying to comprehend how the only sub levels when it came to a consistent timeframe has been run into the ground like this, especially when none of the lower levels seem to be getting any better as a result.

    month is here. express sub still not logged.

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    rexvosrexvos Posts: 3,280 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I am highly frustrated. Subs that have been in stage 4 for 5 months. How is this an acceptable business practice ???

    I am also questioning whether or not the cards I have sent are safe for that long without suffering any damage in their custody.

    Still I trudge along

    Looking for FB HOF Rookies
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    rexvosrexvos Posts: 3,280 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Copyboy1 said:
    55-Card Value 2 Modern Sub:

    Received 6/23/20
    Entered 8/18/20
    Just got out of grading!

    Maybe there is hope for me. Mine that are about 3 weeks older are still stuck in grading

    Looking for FB HOF Rookies
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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭
    edited March 23, 2021 11:20AM

    Completed-Through-Date: The last 4 of 2,000 orders entered that just completed, or the last 750 of 2,000 orders? Who could know. Fingers crossed for improvement and optimism!

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    blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    this updated chart makes more sense:

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭
    edited March 23, 2021 7:22AM

    @blurryface said:
    this updated chart makes more sense:

    您 的 常 规 投 稿 将 在 接 下 来 的 11 到 163 天 内 到 达。

    Exactly!

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    CARDSANDCOINSCARDSANDCOINS Posts: 340 ✭✭✭

    economy order arrived august 2nd, 2020
    entered in system sept 2nd 2020
    chart says everything up to sept 1st is done
    Maybe today???????
    Its only been 6 months

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    burghmanburghman Posts: 851 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 23, 2021 7:48AM

    Ignore - got my dates transposed. Carry on!

    Jim

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    blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    by the first submission post above its saying 304 days total days for value modern?

    so basically 10 months out...but the chart says 254 days behind? so are folks now looking at 1.5 years if they sub now or are they saying the value modern subs should be done in 50 days in a perfect world?

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    parthur1607parthur1607 Posts: 202 ✭✭✭

    @CARDSANDCOINS said:
    economy order arrived august 2nd, 2020
    entered in system sept 2nd 2020
    chart says everything up to sept 1st is done
    Maybe today???????
    Its only been 6 months

    What stage is your order currently in?

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    CARDSANDCOINSCARDSANDCOINS Posts: 340 ✭✭✭

    BEEN IN "GRADING" FOR 4 MOINTHS

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    FrozencaribouFrozencaribou Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide said:

    Completed-Through-Date: Is it the last 4 of 2,000 orders entered that just completed, or the last 750 of 2,000 orders? Who could know. Fingers crossed for improvement and optimism!

    I like the graphics, but have to agree with blurry that the category titles could be improved.

    First, adding the acronym (CTD) in the header after Completed-through-date will help make the link to the column headings.

    The "days behind on March 1" and "days behind on March 23" headings are challenging to interpret.

    What I assume you are measuring in both the "days behind on March 1" and the "days behind on March 23" are calendar day totals from the CTD to the current date, which gives you the total number of calendar days for services to be rendered for each level.

    The final column is the relative difference between the first two measurements.

    This is very interesting data to me, but the term "days behind" is editorial in nature, so perhaps replace it with the implied purpose, which is to measure how long in calendar days it is between the CTD and today's date for each level.

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭
    edited March 23, 2021 2:04PM

    Thanks for the feedback. Will make some adjustments. In reality, the standalone CTD data point is very little to go on.

    As you noted, this table simply reports the difference of where CTD's were on March 1 and the current date. It's directional. Widening variance likely not good, diminishing variance likely not bad.

    Is it reasonable to project, if all things (demand, capacity, throughput) remain unchanged, that a Value-Modern order 'entered' today, would be complete on or before 254 days from now? I guess? How much before? Weeks? Months? Several Months? I hope so.

    Completed-Through-Date: The last 4 of 2,000 orders entered that just completed, or the last 750 of 2,000 orders? Who could know. Fingers crossed for improvement and optimism!

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    CakesCakes Posts: 3,507 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @topcat said:
    I dont know how many of you collectors feel, but this will be my last PSA membership renewal. At $150 a year and a sub taking up to a YEAR, makes no sense. Over 100 days and still in Research, REALLY?? Instead of constantly making silly website enhancements and telling about using a robot, how about working through the weekend and extra hours to get our submissions completed, thats what most of us want to hear. How about extending everyones membership 6-8 since you were either shut down or just bogged down. How about adding a “business day” column on the orders page so we can see how many days it really is without having to constantly call customer service...I guess its good you have a monopoly and dont really have to care about customer service...

    topcat, May I please get my jersey number/icon back? :'(

    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
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    CakesCakes Posts: 3,507 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:
    this updated chart makes more sense:

    That is some funny shibby! Thank you!

    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
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    envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭
    edited March 23, 2021 3:25PM

    Not sure if anyone saw this from yesterday. It doesn’t offer anything groundbreaking but it’s something to read. https://www.psacard.com/articles/articleview/10354/taking-my-hacks-avalanche-cardboard-inside-look-surge-psa-submissions?utm_source=email

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    blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 23, 2021 3:35PM

    @envoy982 said:
    Not sure if anyone saw this from yesterday. It doesn’t offer anything groundbreaking but it’s something to read. https://www.psacard.com/articles/articleview/10354/taking-my-hacks-avalanche-cardboard-inside-look-surge-psa-submissions?utm_source=email

    it actually helps a little bit. my biggest problem w all this has been transparency. just tell me that my express orders are now gonna take 2.5 months and i'm cool w that.

    having to figure it out by myself, do my own homework and check in each day just to figure it out on my own while you post graphs made of nonsense and confusion is what pisses me off.

    honesty is easy. i don't want to hear the answer you think i want to hear. i want the honest answer. tell me it's 2.5 months off the rip and i'm cool. but tell me it's a month and then after 1.5 months we are gonna have problems. shoulda just been straight from the get-go. go a lot further w me that way.

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    FrozencaribouFrozencaribou Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide said:

    Is it reasonable to project, if all things (demand, capacity, throughput) remain unchanged, that a Value-Modern order 'entered' today, would be complete on or before 254 days from now? I guess? How much before? Weeks? Months? Several Months? I hope so.

    >
    The hard truth for value modern submissions it is going to be very close to 11 months from the time the order gets to PSA to the time it comes back. You have to include the 90 days that don't technically count between receipt of package at PSA and entering the order into their system (which is really just a sleight of hand policy).

         Arrived            Entered   Shipped   Status  Items   Service
    
    09/17/20    12/18/20    N/A See Details 134 Value Modern (1972- 2017)
    

    On this particular order, I'm looking at 254 + 90= 334 which puts my cards back in my hands around the middle of August.

    I have to wonder what the graded card marketplace will look like then, as millions of PSA graded cards descend upon the hobby over the hopefully post-pandemic months in the fall and winter of 2021.

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    sayheywyosayheywyo Posts: 456 ✭✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:

    my biggest problem w all this has been transparency

    +1.... and agree with fergie that throwing CC's into economy was down right dirty.

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    parthur1607parthur1607 Posts: 202 ✭✭✭

    @sayheywyo said:
    @blurryface said:

    my biggest problem w all this has been transparency

    +1.... and agree with fergie that throwing CC's into economy was down right dirty.

    They created a new line today on the CTD chart just for CC vouchers. They are prioritized lower than economy seeing how they are one day behind economy.

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    sayheywyosayheywyo Posts: 456 ✭✭✭✭

    @parthur1607 said:

    They created a new line today on the CTD chart just for CC vouchers. They are prioritized lower than economy seeing how they are one day behind economy.

    Great. Since 1996 they have been treated as regular. No transparency, no warning whatsoever. $249 membership for below economy service probably doesn't sit well with long time customers. Just my opinion.

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    blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    i assume CTD days are business days?

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭
    edited March 25, 2021 5:27AM

    The 'Avalanche of Cardboard' continues, as CTD dates widen ...

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    blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    as does confusion and need for a calculator.

    these are business days, correct?

    Shì de or Bù?

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    envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @parthur1607 said:

    @sayheywyo said:
    @blurryface said:

    my biggest problem w all this has been transparency

    +1.... and agree with fergie that throwing CC's into economy was down right dirty.

    They created a new line today on the CTD chart just for CC vouchers. They are prioritized lower than economy seeing how they are one day behind economy.

    Wtf? So I renewed at $249 expecting some level of preference to the vouchers. I thought they had always been treated as regular in the past and was advertised as such upon renewal. I also added 6 cards to that order and paid whatever the prevailing rate was. So I wonder if I’ll be set back to the voucher CTD or the economy CTD. If they stay in lock-step with one another it probably doesn’t matter but if one falls behind, that is just another kick to the head while we are already down.

    On a side note, I started thinking about getting back into the NFL HOF rookies registry since modern cards are crazy, grading fees and times are outrageous and I genuinely miss my set. I really enjoyed hunting for raw cards to grade and add to my set but quickly realized that there is a negative incentive to finding raw cards and grading them as most in mid to even higher grades are not worth the grading fee let alone the wait time. So I’m left with buying what I want already slabbed. Deep down I knew that was going to be the case but it was fun to be excited about it for a few hours anyway.

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    mrburns443mrburns443 Posts: 203 ✭✭✭✭

    So economy just cleared orders entered through 9/1. I got my economy order that was entered on 9/1 back 3 and a half months ago, still waiting on one entered 9/4 that’s still in grading. I have a feeling we’re going to see almost no movement on economy going forward.

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:
    these are business days, correct?

    Possible answers to question:
    The latest reported Regular CTD is Jan 17 -- a Sunday.
    The reporting of CTD changes occurs everyday, not just weekdays.
    The days between dates calculation is calendar days not just business days.

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    blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide said:

    @blurryface said:
    these are business days, correct?

    Possible answers to question:
    The latest reported Regular CTD is Jan 17 -- a Sunday.
    The reporting of CTD changes occurs everyday, not just weekdays.
    The days between dates calculation is calendar days not just business days.

    so that's a no?

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭
    edited March 24, 2021 10:09AM

    @mrburns443 said:
    So economy just cleared orders entered through 9/1. I got my economy order that was entered on 9/1 back 3 and a half months ago, still waiting on one entered 9/4 that’s still in grading. I have a feeling we’re going to see almost no movement on economy going forward.

    Your Economy entered on 9/1/2020, returned 3.5 months ago, likely 'Completed' on December 9th? - 99 days versus 204 days for the last unknown number of 9/1 orders to be completed. Fascinating.

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    envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:

    @OneDaysRide said:

    @blurryface said:
    these are business days, correct?

    Possible answers to question:
    The latest reported Regular CTD is Jan 17 -- a Sunday.
    The reporting of CTD changes occurs everyday, not just weekdays.
    The days between dates calculation is calendar days not just business days.

    so that's a no?

    @blurryface - I think your question was if @OneDaysRide was counting calendar or business days but his response was assuming your question was if the PSA-reported CTD were business days only. It looks like CTD's include all days but probably not holiday's since they've posted updates on Saturdays and put Sunday dates on the complete through. That is only a guess though. I think the graph OneDaysRide is providing is counting calendar days and not excluding weekends. But I suppose if CTD is updating on weekends and work is being done then both the CTD and the graph are in-sync if using calendar days. I don't know what PSA observes for holidays or I could do an excel formula to calculate those out. We could do another to count out business days as well. I don't know if that would make me feel better or worse though. :neutral:

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    mrburns443mrburns443 Posts: 203 ✭✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide said:

    @mrburns443 said:
    So economy just cleared orders entered through 9/1. I got my economy order that was entered on 9/1 back 3 and a half months ago, still waiting on one entered 9/4 that’s still in grading. I have a feeling we’re going to see almost no movement on economy going forward.

    Your Economy entered on 9/1/2020, returned 3.5 months ago, likely 'Completed' on January 7th? - 128 days versus 204 days for the last unknown number of 9/1 orders to be completed. Fascinating.

    It was actually completed on 12/9.

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭

    @mrburns443 said:
    It was actually completed on 12/9.

    Got it. Your Economy entered on 9/1/2020, returned 3.5 months ago, likely 'Completed' on December 9th? - 99 days versus 204 days for the last unknown number of 9/1 orders to be completed. Fascinating.

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭

    @envoy982 said:
    @blurryface - I think your question was if @OneDaysRide was counting calendar or business days but his response was assuming your question was if the PSA-reported CTD were business days only. It looks like CTD's include all days but probably not holiday's since they've posted updates on Saturdays and put Sunday dates on the complete through. That is only a guess though. I think the graph OneDaysRide is providing is counting calendar days and not excluding weekends. But I suppose if CTD is updating on weekends and work is being done then both the CTD and the graph are in-sync if using calendar days. I don't know what PSA observes for holidays or I could do an excel formula to calculate those out. We could do another to count out business days as well. I don't know if that would make me feel better or worse though. :neutral:

    Isn't that what I said? (using 73% less words) :smiley:

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    envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide - It appeared you misunderstood his question, I tried to clarify. I shall refrain from doing so in the future.

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    OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 131 ✭✭✭

    I> @envoy982 said:

    @OneDaysRide - It appeared you misunderstood his question, I tried to clarify. I shall refrain from doing so in the future.

    Please notice the :smiley: No worries here. I understood the question and provided three exceptional answers, That said, I'm not beyond requiring vast amounts of clarification -- on nearly everything :smiley:

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    weaselpuppyweaselpuppy Posts: 218 ✭✭✭
    edited March 24, 2021 10:45AM

    Nice to see a voucher breakout.

    looks at his voucher sub, still listed as Economy in his My Orders Page

    Well, it's nice to see at least.....meanwhile Economy and Value Modern die on the vine...

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    daltexdaltex Posts: 3,486 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @parthur1607 said:

    @sayheywyo said:
    @blurryface said:

    my biggest problem w all this has been transparency

    +1.... and agree with fergie that throwing CC's into economy was down right dirty.

    They created a new line today on the CTD chart just for CC vouchers. They are prioritized lower than economy seeing how they are one day behind economy.

    That doesn't necessarily follow. There may be one CC that is holding up the line for some reason. If there is one CC that was subbed on 9/1 that hasn't been completed and the rest of them were submitted on 10/15 but there are 100 Economy in the queue from 9/5 it would look like this (note that dates and numbers are completely made up). As I understand it, this only shows the absolute oldest sub that hasn't been returned, not average or what submitters can expect to expect.

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    ejguruejguru Posts: 618 ✭✭✭

    Right daltex. Could be a payment issue, something missing on submission or list, or anything that pulls it off the assembly line. Any number of things either before grading or afterwards. It's possible they are still completing orders/invoices in every category while the one holding up the absolute oldest sub makes it appear nothing is being done in a whole category. I'm just wondering why all the time before grading doesn't iron out most/all of the issues.

    "...life is but a dream."

    Used to working on HOF SS Baseballs--Now just '67 Sox Stickers and anything Boston related.
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    weaselpuppyweaselpuppy Posts: 218 ✭✭✭

    I also have an Economy, 7 cards, all with sufficient registry to not need any research, entry date 9/4, so they can't be "too" far ahead....

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    mrburns443mrburns443 Posts: 203 ✭✭✭✭

    I haven’t seen anyone receive an economy order that was entered after 9/1. I honestly believe they completely stopped working on them until recently. On blowout forums I saw a few economy orders from 9/2 and 9/3 that have moved out of grading in the past few days.

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    Copyboy1Copyboy1 Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭

    @mrburns443 said:
    I haven’t seen anyone receive an economy order that was entered after 9/1. I honestly believe they completely stopped working on them until recently. On blowout forums I saw a few economy orders from 9/2 and 9/3 that have moved out of grading in the past few days.

    I have a 3-card economy crossover sub that arrived on 09/18/20, was entered on 10/19/20, and just moved to grading a couple weeks ago.

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    I thought I would join the fun, especially after some nice movement this week on a Regular (all baseball):

    "Monthly Special 12", i.e., I Love The 80s Quarterly Special (56 cards, mostly 1981 Topps):
    Shipped: 06/12/20
    USPS Delivered: 06/15/20
    "Find My Package": 06/18/20
    Research & ID: 08/10/20
    Grading: 01/11/21
    Assembly: 03/05/21

    (Next two shipped in same package; mostly 1955 Topps)

    Regular (5 cards):
    Shipped: 2/18/21
    USPS Delivered: 2/20/21
    PSA Arrived: 2/22/21
    Order Prep: 3/23/21
    Research & ID: 3/23/21
    Grading: 3/24/21

    Value Vintage (62 cards):
    Shipped: 2/18/21
    USPS Delivered: 2/20/21
    PSA Arrived: 2/22/21

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